JPRS ID: 9748 TRANSLATIONS ONMAJOR USSR RIVER DIVERSION PROJECTS

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• Sequence Number: 44
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS Lf 9748
21 May 1981
~
- Translation _
TRANSLATIONS ON M~AJOR USSR R~IVE~R D~IVERSION ~'ROJ~CTS
Volume I
FBIS F~REIGN BROAC~CAST INFORMATIGi~ SERVICE
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NOTE
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JPRS L/9748
21 May 19 81
TRANSLATIONS ON MAJOR USSR RIVER DIVERSION PROJECTS
VOLUME I
CONTENTS
PREFACE ........................................a.............................. 1
- STATEMENTS BY POLITICAL LEADERS ,
Cotton-Growing, Water Resources, Researcn Highlighted in
Agricultural Report
(Sh. R. Rashidov; VES~IIK SEL' SKOKHOZYAYSTVEtINOY NAUKI,
Dec 80) 2 �
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS, .
Potential Benefits of River Reversal Outlined
(Anatoliy Yershov; ZVEZDA VOSTOKA, No 8, 19~Q) . 4
Plans for Supplying Water to Central Asia, Kazakhs tan
(A. Bostandzhoglo; PRAVDA VOSTOKA, 30 Dec 80) 18
0
Institute's Projects -
~V,__Antonov; _~RAVDA VOSTOKA, 8 Jan 81) . _ _21 _
Irrigation Institute's Directo r Urges Construction To aegin -
(V. Dukhovnyy; P RAVDA VOSZiOKA, 18 Jan 81) 24
Economic Costs of Water Shortage Noted
(Z. Salokhiddinov; PRAVDA VOSTOKA, 30 Jan 81) 28
Economist Advocates Adoption of Measures To Save Aral Sea
(E. Rakhimov, E. Zoltarev; PRAVDA VOSTOKA, 31 Jan 81)........... 30
~ Im.smaliyev Urges River Reversal as N1eans of Increasing Cotton
Production
(A. Imamaliyev; PRAVDA, 18 Feb 81) 32 '
SCIENTIFIC AND TEC~iNICAL ANALYSES -
Environmental Protection Issues and �~he Southward Diversion of
- Siberian Rivers
(N. I. Mikhaylov, et al~; SOVZET GEOGRAPHY: REVIEW
AND TRANSLATION, Jan 79) 35
- a - [II - USSR - FOUO]
[III - USSR - 35 FOUO]
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Predictive Evaluations of the Climatic Consequences of the
Rediatribution of Water Resources in the Ce.ntral Region of the
USSR
(L. A. Qiubukov, et al.; IZVESTIYA AKADEMII NAUK SSSR:
_ SERIYA GEOGRAFI(~iESKAYA, Sep-Oct 80) . . . 42
~a~o Rivers Reversal Models Developed by Institute
(Viktor Dukhovnyy; ZVEZDA VOSTOKA, No 12, 1980) 48
- Zhe Probl.em o~ the Caspian Sea
(D. Ya. Ratkovich; VODNYYE RESURSY, No 5, 1980) 50
A Systems Approach to Analyzing Interbasin Diversiom of Water
Flaw (Based on the Example of Diver+~ing Part of the Diacharge
of the USSR's Northern Rivers Into the Volga)
(A. S. Berezner, et al. ; VOI~IYS~E RESURSY, No 1, 1981) . 69
S tudy o f River Divers ion Imp act on USS R Deve lopment , Environment
Con~inues
- (VOI7NYYE RESURSY, No 2, 1981) 91
, Comment on Rtver Reversal Effect ocyi Arctic
(E. Tolstikov; PRAVDA, 9 Mar 81) 99
- b -
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PREFACE
This is ths first of a four volume special report. Most of the translations
are reports or discussions on proposals for or ramifications of projects to
divert part of the f law of certain ma~or northward flowing river systems into
areas of the southern USSR, especially Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
This collection of translations was prompted by a notable increase in the
volume of material published regarding the feasibility of river diversion
during the last third of 1980 and the first months of 1981, as the 26th CPSU
Congress approached. The material scanned included a qulte broad selection
of Soviet newspapers and ~ournals, provincial as well as central, and in th~
local languages of the Central Asian Republics as well as in P.ussia.
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STATIIKENTS BY POLITICAI, LEADERS
UDC 011.1+63
COTTON-GROWING, WATER RESOURCES, RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTED IN AGRICULTURAL REPORT
Moscow VESTNIK SEL'SKOKHOZYAYSTVENNOY NAUKI in Russian No 12, Dec 80 pp 1-11
' [Article by Sh. R. Rashidov, CPSU Central Committee Politburo candidate,
first seccetary, Uzbek SSR Co~?unist Party Central Comffiittee: "Introduce
the Achievements of S~ience Into the National Econamy"]
[Excerpts] The infrastructure of the agro-industrial complex--industry, agri-
culture, and water man~agement--has its own ma~or scientific problems, in the
solution of which the appropriate sector acientific reaearch institutes, VUZ's
planning organizations, and design bureaus are taking part. Eleven integrated
" programs dealing with the republic's agriculture and water management were
. approved in the lOth Five-Year Plan. They include creation and introduction of
a general-purpose cotton harvester adapted for the harves~ing of inedium-fibered
and fine-fibered varieties of cotton, creatio.n and introduction of low-toxicity
defoliants and pesticides, improvement of irrigation procedures and equipment,
and so on.
There are many unsolved problems in irrigation and land reclamation. We are al-
ready experiencing tremendous difficulties associated with water shortages every
year. The meagerness of the water resourcea and the water shortage, which is
quickly growing, will continue to be problems in the future ae well. It has be-
= come urgently necessary to develo~ arid implement an integrated program aimed at
sharply raising the efficiency of irrigation systemg~ new productive irrigation
methods, and ways to economically etimulate effective use of water resources.
It should be emphasized that in the immediate future, and even after part of
the flow of Siberian rivers ia diverted to Central Aeia, the problems aseociated
, with economical water consLmmption will remain acute.
In ternis of land reclamation, we aead to concentrate the efforts of scientiets
- on developing and introducing more effective forms of drain$g~, and improving
leaching methods, finding soil desaliniz~tion methods and so on.
The republic has developed scientifically grounded measures for introducing
technical progress into cotton growing and into other sectora. Targets for in-
troducing wide-row plantations, precision sowireg methods, double-level plowing,
herbicides, mechanized chopping, ~mechanical ~otton harvesting, crop rotation,
and other measur~es were set for each oblast in the republic for each year of the
lOth Five-Xear Plan. The economic impact fro~m their introduction ie climbing to
300 million rubles. Constant conceni is being displayed for creatin~ new
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Fo~ ~~~~ct,~~, ~_-~:~a �~~v~
h~rveating and ott~er equipment for cotton growing, new, lesa toxic defoliants, �
concentrated fertilizers, blological agricultural pest control methods, im�-
provements in irrigation equipmer~t and procedures, working out the problems
bf diverting part of the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia, develop- �
ment of animal husbandry, and reinforcement of the feed base.
In their efforts to advance the achieve~ents of science into preduction, the
Central Asian branch of the Ail-Union Academy of Agricultural Sciences imeni
V.I. Lenin and other institutes are being given daily assistance by the Uzbe?c
- SSR Com~unist Party Central Committee in coordinating the work of scientific,
planning, and design organiz~~io;ls, as taell as industrial enterprises ~nanufac-
turing new equipment, attachments, fertilizers, and chemical means of protect-
ing plants.
The achievements of agricultural science and the growth of its role as an
immediate material force elevating all farming and animal husbandry sectors
have become possible owing to the presence of highly skilled scientists. Today,
170 doctors and more than 2,500 candidates of sciences are working on the press- _
ing scientific problems of the republic's agriculture. The serious theoretical
and practical problems we must solve require a dramat~c improv~ment in the tr~in-
ing of scientists with the top qualifications, mainly doctors of scipnces. The _
number of scientists with top qualificatione employed in ma~or research programs
atill fails to satisfy the growing demand. This is why energetic steps are be-
ing taken to afford promisinz, workers witli ,.'~e �r~ecessary conditions for their
creative growth, since the fuiure of our science depends on how well we do this
today. Our scientists are making a tremendous contribution to developing cotton -
growing and other sectors, raising the effectiveness of production and improving
product quality, developing agro-industrial integration, eliminating the dispro-
portions between different sectors of the agro-industrial complex, and solv~ng
the social problems of rural areas. The Uzbek SSR Communist Party Central Com-
mittee is providing all-out assistance and support to the great detachment of
workers in agricultural science by defining the fundamental directions of scien-
tific inquiry, iMproving control over scientific research, and strengthening the
ties between science and production, and it will continue to do so in the future.
The fatherly cencern of the Leninist party and the outstanding successes of the
Soviet people in econ.omic and cultural development inepl.re the republic's scien-
tists to new creative efforts and discoveries. Persistently raising the effec-
tiveness of research, and concentrating their strengths and resources in the
decisive directions of agricultural development, they are fully resolved to make
a substantial contribution to accelerating scientific-technical progress and -
honorably welcoming the 26th CPSU Congress.
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Kolos", "Vestnik sel'skokhozyaystvennoy nauki", 1980
11004
CSO: 1824/175
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ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS
POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF RIVER REVERSAL OUTLINED
Tashkent ZVEZDA VOSTO;'A in Russian Nn ~i, 1980 pp 5-16
[Article by Anatoliy Yt�rshov: "People, Water and Economics"]
[Text] A bearded peasant holding a rifle was talking with a atylishly
dressed gentleman.
"Let me tell you, my fine gentleman, that we will definitely take the land in
our own hands. Definitely! And we will rebuild everything."
"Will you dig up mountains?"
"Why sure. If they are in the way we will dig them up." '
"And will rivers flow backwards?"
i
- "The rivers will flow where we tell them to flow."
~
~ Zhis is a conversation that was recorded by A. M. Gor'kiy in Petrograd in 1917.
~ I recalled it at the all-Union conference of economic scientists from higher
educational institutions in the country which was held for several days in
Tashkent. The scientists at the meeting were focusing their attention on a
I~ problem whose essential point is precisely expressed by the words: "Turning
part of the flow of tne Siberian rivers to run to Central Asia." Thus, the
' people who became rulers nf the land in October 1917 are carrying out their
dreams.
~ Throughout the conference I kept thinking, "We live in amazing times." How
' can one not be amaz~d? 'L'he sub~ect, after all, was the greatest such project
in world experier_ce. No other country of the world yet has had the courage to
undertake the transformatioZ of nature on such a magnificent scale.
It was an economic conference, so of course the debate at it centered chiefly
on issues related to economic development and social consequances of transfer-
ring part of the northern waters to the south. ~
The technical side of things also etru~k the imaaination, of course. To build
a canal roughl.y 2,300 kilometers long is a very difficult ~ob. It is as hard
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as the challenge of building the BAM [Baikal-Amur Mainline]. Incidentally,
it is 3ust as expensive too. Building the canal will require a whole fleet
of powerful earth moving machines and various other unique equipment. To
provide all this machinery it will be necessary to rebuild some enterprises
or build special plants, to say nothing of the const�ruction industry enter-
prises which.will certainly have to be organized.
. Nonetheless, for me the most interesting thing w~.s the social aspect of carry-
ing out this vast project.
Central Asia is a land of incalculable wealth. We. who live here have become
accustomed to this statement. But let us try evaluating the potential of our
r~gion not from an emotional standpoint using ringing words, but from an eco-
nomic standpoint, relying on dry ftgures. This is what the participants at
the ccnference did.
So, if we look at a physical map of Central Asia and southern Kazakhstan, we
see the predominant colors are brown and yellow: mountains, de3erts, semi-
deserts, and arid steppes. Green, the color of oases, occurs only along the `
river valleys and canals. The area of irrigated land in those places is only
about 7 million hectares. But s.cientists have calculated that more than 50
million hectares is suitable for raising crops.
Another aspect of our wealth is the warm climate. The length of the frost- _
free period here ranges from 6 to 9 months and summer air temperatures permit
the ripening of heat-loving crops such as cotton, tobacco, rice, soybeans,
grapes, melons, and many types of subtropical fruits.
I cannot refrain from citing some f igures here: one hectare of irrigated land
produces 1,340 rubles of output compared to 140 rubles received from a hectare
- of unimproved land.
"Well, then, what is the problem?" the reader will ask and say, "Let's get to
. work and develop and irrigate new lands if it's so profitable in our region!"
Of course, that is what we are doing. At the dawn o� Soviet power V.I. Lenin
wrote the following: "There is still unused land. Excellent land, which must
- be ~lowed!" Communists have made Lenin's dream their program of action. Since ~
the first years of the socialist ~atherland plans have been written to develop
the virgin lands and they are being brought into cultivation. In the 1950's a
~ project ~:nprecedented in human history began to develop the virgin land. At
~ this time the Soviet peaples ~oined their efforts to transform the virgin land
region of Kazakhstan. At almost the same time in Uzbekistan we began to bring
back into production lands ~ahich had not been used for aenturies.
"At about the same time," is how it seems to ua today when that heroic begin-
- ning is somewhat removed in time. But to be accurate, the development of new
land on a broad scale in our republic began under the direct impact of the vir-
gin land transfon~ation in Kazakhstan.
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Older and middie-aged people remember thi~ well. It was 1956. The newspapers
ran the decree of the CPSU Central Committee and USSR Council of Ministers on
development of 300,000 hectares of land in the Goldnaya Steppe. The enthusiasm
of young people was unprecedented. The republic Komsomol sent the best and
most worthy of them for the assault on the previously uninhabited steppe region.
The years passed. The Golodnaya Steppe, which is often called the little sis-
ter of the gieat Virgin lands, became an oasis of economic importance comparable
to the natural oasis, the lush, Fergana valley! The sovkhozes built on the new
- irrigated land, after 1956 that is, grew and in their existence have sold the
state more than 4 million tons of raw cotton. In this way they have long since
repaid the cost of their development.
But people are not satisfied with past achievements. A new all-Union shock
= Komsomol construction pro3ect called the enthusiasts. This was the Karshinskaya
Steppe. Its young sovkhozes have already harvested their first million tons of
cotton. In the future they wi~ll harvest this much every year, and it will be the
most valuable kind of cotton, fine fibered.
But the virgin lands of Uzbekistan do not end with the Golodnaya or the Karshin-
skaya steppes. Today thie pro~ect cannot be imagined without developing land in
the CentraZ Fergana region, Surkhan-Sherabad valley, the Dzhizakskaya Steppe,
and the lower regions of the Amu-Dar~ya in Karakalpakistan. It is a vast and
heroic idea!
During the Ninth Five-Year Plan more than 510,000 hectares of virgin lands
were brought into agricultural~use in Uzbekistan. During the lOth Five-Year
Plan another half million hectares are to be irrigated. Thie means 1 million
hectares in a decade! Where else, in what other country, is work going forward
on such a scale?
And these are the reasons for the pride that every Soviet citizen felt when
reading Leonid I1'ich Brezhnev's book "Taelina" [The Virgin Land].
How portentous that this book was published in 1978. That was the year in
which our country celebrated the 60th anniversary of Lenin~s decree on irriga-
tion of lands in Turkestan and it was ~ust before the 25th anniversary of the
' beginning of development of the virgin lands in Kazakhstan. -
It is difficult to grow cotton anywhere. But i~ is especially hard on virgin
lands. This land takes a great deal of care. It has to be watered and made
fertile. But there is nothing that the virgin lands developers will not do.
They conquered the deserts of our region and once barren lands became flourish-
ing oases. One-third of the cotton of Uzbekistan today comes from the virgin
lands!
As you see, the developers ot our steppes and deserts hare done brilliantly.
And they are ready to continue that in the future, But, and this will be the
sub~ect of discussion, everything ultimately relies on water. The re~ources
of the Syr-Dar'ya will be fully exhausted by 1985. By the 1990's the re--
serves of the region's largest river, the Amu-Dar'ya, will be depleted.
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_ r~~rt �r~u-~,~~, II~T, i?Ni.Y
Underground sources may help somewhat, of co~s:se, but they are also exhaust-
- ible. Then what will h~.ppen?
Water is an amazing substance. Yeu cannot stibstitute for it with supplemen-
tary doses of mineral fertilizer, chemicals tc ~ontxol field pests and weeds,
or any other chemical products! I cannot help remembering her~ the remarkable
words of Saint Fxupery, who came to know the true value of this marvelous
liquid when his airplane crashed in the Sahara. "Water! You have no taste,
no color, and no odor. It is impossible to describe you. People enjoy you
~rithout reali~ing that you are necessar~ for life. You are life itself. You -
fill us with a joy that we cannui: expla?n. You return to us tha strength that
we have lost. The dried-up springs of our heart begin flowing again by your
grace."
The inhabitants of the arid regions of the world know the value of water vei~y
well. Central Asia is one of those regions. The peoples of our regi~n wisely
say: "Where water ends, life ends," and "It is not land that gives life, but
water."
Indeed, the inhabitants of the arid zone know the true value of a drink of
water. Where there is no water we have sun-scorched desert. The wateiPd land
is bountiful; oases flourish, cities grow, and the economy develops. It would,
perhaps, be no exaggeration to say that the level of development of the Central
Asian republics can be evalua.r_ed by the level of development of their water -
management systems.
The area of irrigated land in Uzbekistan has doubled during the years of Soviet
power. In this same time 20 large reservoirs, r~al manmade seas, have been
built. Among them are Charbakskoye, Andizhanskoye, Kattakurganskoye, Yuzhno-
Surkhanskoye, Talimarzhanskoye, and Pachkamarskoye. Their total volume exceeds
4.5 billion cubic meters. And this is still not all; in addition, reservoirs
in the mountains of neighboring republics also "work" to irrigate the fields of
Uzbekistan. Among them are such large reaervoirs as Toktogul'akoye and
Nurekskoye: The blue ribbons of canals have formed a dense network covering
the oases of the republic. These manmade rivers are more than 150,000 kilometers
long. Those who like "astronomical comparisons" could circle the globe four
_ times with these canals. No capitalis~ country can boast of such up-to-date and
sophisticated irrigation and .land impr.ovement structures as Soviet Uzbekistan.
That is why, incidentaliy, people from around the world come to study irriga-
tion here.
But no matter how we improve and refine our water management system, we are
approaching the time when it will be necessary to say: "Moisture reserves have
been exhausted."
There is one thing to do: transfer water to our region from far away, for
example from Siberia where vast regions suffer from a surplus of moisture. _
It is not accidental that the people there say, "Water is disaster," and "A1-
ways expect trouble frcm water."
. `
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~ But serioua background studies muet be done before undertaking suc.h a pro,ject.
This ~ork is being done bq associates at the Institute of Water Problems of th~
Academy of Sciences USSR, the Institute af Geography of the AcadEmy of Sciences
USSR, the Council for the Study of Productive Forces of the Acac~emy of Sciences
of the Uzbek SSR, the Tashkent Institute of the National Economy, the Central
Asian Scientific Research Institute of Irrigation, the Soyuzvodproy~ekt [All-
_ Union Association for Water Management Planning] Association, the Soyuzgipro- -
vodkhoz [All-Union State Order of the Labor Red Banner Planning-Surveying and
Scientific Research Institute of Water Management Construction] Institute, and
many others. a total of 120 scientif ic and planning institutions in all. The
- purpose of the conference in Tashkent was to hear reports on the results of
their work.
The actual idea of tYansferring Siberian water to CenCral Asia arose in the laet
century. In 1968 Ya.G. Demchenko, an agronomist from Kiev, submitted a report
memorar...dum to the Russian Geographic Society entitled: "Flooding the Aral-Caepian _
- Lowland To Improve the Climate." The problem raised in the memorandum was not
a pressing onP and ff:w people understood it at the time. After all, Demchenko
was proposing to improve the climate of a remote ~rontier of the country. His
- idea was not evaluated; it could be said it was simply not noticed. Intere4t
in the idea arose ouly after Great October. In the 1920's and 1930'a several
pro3ects were proposed to build dams on Siberian rivers and deliver the water
to Kazakhstan and Central Asia. The first plans contemplated redistributin~ the
water by gravity-flow. A fua~'amentally new concept advanced in 1936 proposed
using pumps to get over the water divide. In this scheme the flooding of flood-
plains is greatly diminished. This idea formed the basis for current planning _
development. It could have begun earlier, o� course. But like many other pro-
~ects, the starting time f~r implementation of this vast conception was postponed
� by the Great Patriotic Wa-r. But in 1946 the Gidroenergoproyekt [possibly Hydro-
electric Power Planning] Institute began preliminary development of the technical
- side of the problem of reversing the flow of the Siberian rivers to run to -
Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Small surveys and tests were made. Thia work was -
directed by engineer Mitrofam Mikhaylovich Davydov, who had worked here in Cen- -
~ral Asia at an earlier time, in 1921-1932, and even then had been infatuated
with this U old idea. In recent years the periodiCal press has wYitten a great ,
deal about the planning work, and it has been called the "Davydov Plan." In -
reality, of c~urse, a large group of engineere, some 40 people, took part in
the work. By 1954 the zealots had collected eufficient material to give an
idea of the character and scale of work necessary to carry out this incredible
- conception. The four-volume work "Irrigatsiya Uzbekistana" [Irrigation of
Uzbekistan] by the Acadeary of Sciences Uzbek SSR defines the result of the
e,xplanatory stage as follows: "The results obtained confirmed the possibility
of transferring the water by building large hydroengineering complexes."
In the early 1960's at the Central Asian division of the Gidroproyekt [All-
Union Planning, Surveying, and Scientific Research Institute imena S. Ya. Zhuk]
Institute I became familiar with a large book whose title page read: "?tevers-
ing r.he Flow from the Ob` River Basin to Kazakhstan and Central. Asia." This _
was one more step toward implementation of the idea. It was then that I began
my first report on revereing the flow of the water from north to aouth.
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I wrote an account of an imaginary fu*_ure trip aloiig the canal. Yes, it was
imaginary because actual~;~ doj_ng it seemed ~o b~ far in the future. And now,
it appears, we have arrived at this Future and ~~ill witness the implementation
- of the plan w:~j.ch not long ago was considered to be fantastic. Such are the
"giant steps" taken by the Soviet five-year plrina, ahich move our ec~nomy ahead
at an incredible pace and have converted the mo~t audacious plans into aetual
- oases, cities, scientific laboratories orbiting the earth, or canals of enor-
mous length.
"Carry on scientific research and, on this ba~is, do developmental work rela~ed
to the problem of diverting part of the flow of northern and Siberia rivers to
Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and the Volga river basin." That was what the 25th
CPSU Congress resolved, almost 5 years ago. Today thousands of people, the
most highly qualified specialists in the country in the f ields of irrigation,
soil s cience, economics, climate, and others, are putCing this party resolution
into effect. _
A broad panorama of soeioeconomic tr.ansfor.mations which will occur in our re-
gion with the arrival of Siberian water is now Gpen before us. The reports by
G. V. Voropayev, director of the Institute of vJater Problems of the Academy of
Sciences USSR, I. A. Gerardi, deputy chief engineer of the Soyuzgiprovodkhoz
Institute, Professor M. Sh. Sharifkhodzhayev, reci-or of the Tashkent I~zstitute
of the National Econamy, and representaCives of other scientific and planning
centers helped participants at the conference see these prospects.
Kuz'ma Ivanovich Lapkin, academician of the Academy of Sciences Uzbek SSR,
deputy ~nairman of the Republic Council for the Study of Productive Forces,
and one of our leading economists, presented an interecting calculation. Stu-
~ dies made by a collective of specialists under his direction made it possible
to determine the ecunomic potential of one cubic kilometer of water used in the
fields of the republic. Such a quantity of water makes it possible to get
112,000 tons of cotton, 116,000 tons of vegetables and melons, 41,000 tons of
fruit and grapes, 7,000 tons of ineat in slaughter weight, 114,OOU tons of milk,
and 400 tons of silkworm cocoons. In monetary terms, all this output is esti-
mated at 153 million rubles. -
But even this is not the camplete result; it is only the part that will come
directly from agriculture which, as we know very well, supplies raw material
to industry. Therefore, the scientists made similar calculations for the indus-
try that processes agricultural raw material. It turned out that each cubic
kilometer of water makes it possib le to receive 500 million rubles of output
from the agroindustrial complex. The reaearchers calculate that the net income
from this amount will be 193 million rublea!
Just the first phase of diverting part o� the flow of the Siberian rivers to
Central Asia envisions delivering 25 cubic kilometers (or 25 billion cubic
meters) of water to our region each year. It is true that part of the water
is to be used en route, in Kazakhstan and the RSFSR. Nonetheless, the bulk of
it is for our fields and will result in snow--wh~.te bales of cotton, rows of
sweet-smelling fruit trees, and tasty vegetables.
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Further into the future, at the turn of the century, engineers contemplate -
diverting 6~ and even more cubic kilomete~s of water a year f.rom the north
to the s outh, the equivalent of the entire Amu-Dar'ya. This water wi1? un-
doubtedly produce trc~ly abundant harvests in our fields. They will run into
thousands and millions of ton3.
~
But does the value of this out;put ~ustify the capital that must be invested
in construction of the carial and spent for transporting the water? Econo-
mista answer: Yes! At the conference they stated that this capital would be.
repaid in 5-6 years. Even b,y cautious calculations the repayment period is
- no more than 10 years.
When apeaking of the advantages that 1 cubic kilometer of water produces, we
did not mention aaother figure. But it is one that should be not ~uat men- _
tioned, but thought about. The number I have in mind is 50,000. Thia is how
many job s each cubic kilometer of water can provide in our republic. We can
properly evaluate the signif icance of thia figure if we remember the high
birth rate in our region. As a result of it, it is realistic to expect that -
the population of Central Asia will double by the turn of the century, while at
' the same time the growth of population on the average for the country as a whole
will be ~ust 2~ percent. _
We must recognize that this means that without additional sources of water, or
to be mo re specific without diverting part of the flow of the Siberian rivers
- to our regions, it will be difficult f or us to employ in public production all
the children being born in our day. The analysis of the economists showed that
industrial development alone cannot meet this challenge. In addition, we muet
take account of the local population's traditional inclinations for agricul-
tural labor. This labor can be provided only if new land is brought into use,
and this requires irrigation.
It would be unrealistic to suppose that ma~ny local inhabitants want to go and
work developing the riches of Siberia and the Far Eaet. A few, of courae, will
- want to tie their destiny to the remote regions, but most of the population of ~
Central Asia is not inclined to migrate. They prefer to remain in customary
climatic conditions.
Therefore, f rom the standpoint of better use of the country's labor resources
it is also advantageous to transfer part of the flow of the Siberian rivere to
- Central Asia.
But possibly the Siberians themselves would be hurt by this operation?
The facts cited at the all-Union conf erence of economists indicate the oppo-
site. The water that the Siberian rivers will give to the fields of Central
Asia is ~ust a small part of their total flow and, therefore, will have little
impact on them. After all, the Ob' and Yenisey alone, two of the world's larg-
est rivers, carry roughly 950 cubic kilometers oi water a year to the Arctic
Oceanl By contrast, the inhabitants of Siberia, by sharing their excess water,
will receive a direct benefit from the development of orchard farming and grape
growing in the southern regions of the country. According to calculations by
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~ Siberian economists, this region must impurt at least 500,000 tone of vege-
tables and melons and roughly 1.5 tons of fri~it, berries, and grapes from
the southern regions, the Ukraine, Moldavia, and Central Asia. Some of the
vegetables can be raised in local areas using hothouses. It is true that this
requires ma~or capital investment and the qliaJ.ir.y of. the output from covered
ground is not, of course, comparable to that whtch we receive from land that
is directly heated by the hot southern sun. 't'tie calculations of the economists
indicate that it would be wise to establiah large-scale production or nourish-
ing garden and orchard crops in Central Asia, near Siberia. This would make
it possible to save about 500 mi111on rubles a ye~r in transportation costs
alone.
Sociologists called attention to an equally important factor: the improvement
in supply of fruit and vegetables will help 1~c~ep workers at development sites
in the Nor*_h. This means that, by giving water to southern fields, we will be
~ more successful in work to use the natural riches of Siberia.
The arrival of large amounts of water from Siberia in Central Asia and Kazakhstan
will lead to the irrigation of millions of hectares af virgin landsy provide ~obs
to millions of people, and give birth to new cities and dozens of industrial
enterprises. Large new oases to produce cotton, fruit, and vegetables will
appear. A proper evaluation of the coming changes enables us to say with con-
- fidence that a natiionally important l~rge new region for the production of food
products will be created in our region.
But what can the arrival of Siberian water give to the Uzbek SSR, for example?
The report at the conference by deputy chief engineer of the Uzgiprozem [pos-
sibly Uzbek SSR Land Planning Institute] InsCitute V. N. Grechikhin and M. I.
Kochubey, chief specialist of the same institute, answered this question.
According to their outline, we can expect to add more than 10 million hectares
of irrigated land, including 3.5 million hectares in established farming zones
and 7 million in new irrigaCion regions. Implementation of this program will
mean that the agroindustrial complex of Uzbekiatan will practically triplel
Think about that word "triple." It means that we will have three times as much
- of everything we have today in the f ields of agriculture and the industry that
processes its raw materials, all that we take pride in! Then the sphere of
agricultural production will attract 7 million people, including 4.6 million
in zones of new irrigation. But the last figure is not a final one, because
the sectors of the agroindustrial complex will also develop in the new irriga-
tion regions and they will need just as much labor.
This calculation was made on the basis of the maximum potential of our land
resources, that is, the existence of land area that can be put to agricultural
use by existing methods. Needless to say, this figure does not include so-
called "especially difficult" landa for whose development rational and accept-
ably inexpensive techniques have not yet been found. Putting them to human use
is a matter of the remote future.
We understand, of course, that the f irst stages in divE~rting Siberian water
will not be able to supply water to all the undev~lop,:d land. Only the beat
and most acceptable lands will be used.
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Another calculation, made by A. V. Bostandzhnglo, scientific associate at the
Council for the Study of Productive Forces of the Academy of Sciences Uzhek
SSR, puts the figure for new irrigated land in Uzbekistan at 3 million hec-
tares. This is on the condition that 60 cubic kilometers of Siberian water
enters the Aral Sea basin .
This is the figure that economists are using today in their planning projec-
tions. This volume of water is to be distributed among the neighboring southern
republics. Part of the water will be used en route in Kazakhstan. In the
southern regions of thatrepublic it will irrigate heat-loving crope, while in
the more northerly regions, Alma-Ata specialists believe that the water can be
used to i rrigate grain crops. This will make it possible to raise their yield
from 15 to 50 quintals per hectare.
The Turkmen SSR will be able to put large areas of virgin land to agricultural
use with 3iberian water, They have more than 12 million hectares suitable for _
irrigati on, and only 1 million is in uae.
The arrival of large supplies of water will be an important stage in the develop-
ment of the unique mineral depoaite of Kazakhstan and Central Asia also. After
all, neither induetry nor agriculture can develop without water. For example,
it takes 15-26 cubic meters of water to smelt a ton of steel and up to 6,000
~ cubic meters to get a ton of synthetic fiber! Siberian water will make it pos-
- sible to develop a number of unique mineral deposits whose exploitation could _
not even be planned without it.
And of course, water is also needed f or continued urban development. It has
been calculated that it takes 270 tons of water to support one person for
1 year .
The marnnade river will promote stronger economic ties between economic regions
_ of the country. Construction of the supercanal will also mark the beginning of
the cre ation of the unified water management system of the Asian USSR, one of
the key links in the unif ied nationwide water management system now being shaped.
Long ago, in prehistoric times, during the Ic~ Age, the waters of the ancient '
Siberian rivers, the Ob' and Yeniaey, did not flow north. They flowed south,
through the Turgay Gates which connect the West Siberian and Aral Caspian low-
lands. Over time the powerful glaciers that created the pressure head melted
and retreated and the Turgay Gates were raised above water level by movement of
the earth's crust. The gates were closed and the rivers found a new route Co
the north, depriving vast southern regions of life-giving moisture. Today
Soviet people are preparing to correct nature's "miatake." The waters of the
Siberian rivera will again flow south~ becoming a unique source which will make
it possib 1~ to open the door to incalculable riches in the vast arid regions of
the coun try. In the future the Ob' and Irtysh, and possibly other Siberian
rivers, will come to the rescue of the Syr-Dar~ya and Amu-Dar'ya.
According to th~ projectiona of the All-Union Soyuzvodproyekt Association the
route of the future trunk canal will run to the lower regions of the Syr-Dar'ya
and Amu--Dar'ya, which is the region that experiencea the greatest shortage of
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~ tDh I~E +?1. :1`;~t~: o~hf.t
moisture today. The Siberian wlter wiJ.l connect up with the Amu-Dar'ya in the
region between the cities of Nukus and Urgench. nt this point a special branch
will run of f the main canal and e l~~cr r i.c p~.mps wi.ll deliver northern water along
it to the Tyuyamuyunskoye manmade sea no~a under construction on the Amu-Dar'ya. ~
This reservoir is expected to support irrigation of the lands in the lower
reaches of our region's principal r~ver. Thus, thE entire zone of the lower
reaches of the Amu-Dar`ya wi11 be completely nourished by ~iberian water and
the river's flow liberated thereby wi11. ~o to irrigate land in the Kashkadar'ya
basin (including the fields of the Karshinskaya Steppe), the Bukhara oasis, and
along the Karakumy canal which wi11 stretch to I3akharaden.
This predicament allows us to say that at the turn of the century the lower
reaches of the Amu-Dar'ya and Syr-Dar.'ya wi1:1 become the country's largest
region of hydro land improvement construction. Plans call for irrigating 4
million hectares of new land there witti Slberian water; in addition to this,
roughly 2 million hectares of existing ].and will be reorganized.
So-called "ancient irrigation" lands (irrigation arose in these regions roughly
4,000 years ago) will also be used in development of the lower reaches of the -
region's two largest rivers. In the Middle Ages many irrigation systems were
destroyed because of feudal wars and large sectors of fertile land were
- covered up by sand. It is much easier to prepare them for farming, however, _
than virgin desert lands. As science has demonstrated, irrigation in oases
causes the formation of fertile manmade soils tha~ are unlike any natural
soils. For this reason archeologists are making detailed maps of the regions
of ancient irrigation and carefully studying the organization of the irrigation
network in past centuries. Today a11 these findings are beginning to be useful
to land developers. Ancient irrigated soils, scientists allege, have good tex-
ture, are usually less weed infested, and contain more sn~stancea useful to
plants than lands that were not irrigated. The experience of the ancient irri-
gators must also be taken into account in choosing the routes of contemporary
main canals and planning the detailed irrigation network.
The problems of continued development of the lower reaches of Amu-Dar'ya and
5yr-Dar'ya are closely tied to the fate of the Aral Sea, the second largest
in*ernal-drainage body of water in the USSR (after the Caspian Sea) and fourth
largest in the world. The Aral only exists because of the waters of the Amu-
Dar'ya and Syr-Dar'ya. Just 2 decades ago these rivers and atmospheric pre-
cipitation carried almost 60 cubic kilometers of moisture a year to the sea.
The same amount evaporated. The Aral had a volume of 1,060 cubic kilometers
and a surface area of 66,000 squarz kilometers. Its water 1eve1 fluctuated
around 53 meters above sea level. Today all these figures are hopelessly out
of date. Because large volwnes of water nLe being taken from the rivers for
irrigation, evaporation from the sea now exceeds the inf low of moisture signif-
icantly. The level of the Aral Sea has dropped 7 meters and will continue to
drop in coming years. The water is swiftly retreating f rom the docks, beaches,
and fish spawning grounds. This has caueed great alarm not only among inhabi- _
tants of the Aral region, but in national public opinion. A great deal has
been written about the fate of the Aral. I will not repeat these things here,
but will only observe that most of the sCate~nents have been highly emotional,
while the loss has been discussed in generalities.
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The Tashkent conference of economists of fered me my first chance to hear a
concrete discussion with thoroughly substantiated figurea. Associates from
the Council for the Study of Productive Forces of the Academy of Sciences
Uzbek SSR presented their calculations to the audience. They were asked to
give a socioeconomic evaluation of the negative conaequences of the lowering
of the level of the Aral Sea. The scientists from this research center had
to work out a special methodology for this which enabled them to determine -
expected economic losses with adequate precision. In addition, they worked
_ out the scientific foundations of steps to mitigate the consequences of the
sea's drying up.
Well, what is going to happen in the Aral region because of this process?
There ia no question that the climate will become more continental. As the
volwne of water decreases the heat reserve stored by its water will also di-
minish. It is expected, therefore~ that the average air temperature will -
drop by 1-3 degrees, spring fr~sts will be later, and fall froats earlier.
Therefore, the growing season for the development of agricultural crops will
be shortened. It is contemplated that the eum of effective temperatures will
be reduced. This means that cotton will not be able to receive sufficient
heat to mature during the summer.
- The proceases of desertification will develop. The first signs of them can
already be ob s erved around Kyzyl-Orda and Tashuz. Groun~ findings have been
confirmed by observations from space which detect clouds of saline dust driven
by storm winds from the Aral Sea in the direction of the Tien"shan and Kopetdag.
There is mo re. The greatest disasCer that awaits the Aral region in the f uture
is degradaCion of the land in the delta of the Amu-Dar'ya and Syr-Dar'ya, an
area of 1 million hectares. The proceae of desertification tias not touched the
agricultural z one yet, and associ ates of the Council believe that it can still
be prevented from entering thie zone. These lands will be saved, of course, by
the timely arrival of Siberian water. But it would be a mistake to place all
hopes on th e t ransfer of this water and not take local steps to stop the pro-
cess of desertification today. After all, surveying and work on the pro~ect
are still unde rway, and at the present time there are no concrete deadlinea
for constructi on of the canal. The beginning of its construction could be de-
layed for var ious reasone, and then time will be loat and processes in the del-
ta soils will become irreversible. Large capital investment, running into bil- -
lions of rub les, will have to be spent to restore these lands. This can be
avoided if imp lementation of a program is begun immediately, as recommended by
the Council for the Study of Productive Forcea of the Academy of Sciences Uzbek
SSR. Then ch anges in the natural world will not catch us by surprise. -
One of the immediate steps ie to reorganize the whole structure of agriculture
in the Aral region. It appeare that the northern boundary of cotton-growi.ng
will be ahif t ed to the south. This is understood in Karakalpakistan, where
intense work has begun in recent years to develop virgin lands for cotton fields -
in the southe rn part of the ~utonomous republic. In its northern regions a zone
to raiae seed alfalfa shoul.d be established. A quintal of seeds of this feed
crop is worth thousanda of rubles. Therefore, a yield of ~uat 3 quintals of
alfalfa aeed per hectare will earn ~uat as much money as 60 quintals of cotton.
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The favorable natural conditi~ns of the Aral region make it possible to get
up to 8 quintals of alfalfa seeds. These figures are their own p;.opaganda.
Animal husbandry is another sector that shauld be developed inten~ively here
in the coming years. Any comment on the significance of developing this sec-
tor would be superf luous.
I do not think there is any need to go into all the details of the upcoming
reorganization of human economic activities in the Aral region. We need only
point out that a high degree of coordination among the neighboring republics
of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan is needed for this. It will help
avoid unnecessary losses. _
But there will, of course, be losses. It is already clear today that the Aral
is ceasing to be a ma3or supplier of valuable commercial fish species. These
losses can be compensated for in a quantitative sense (but not qualitative!) _
by the development of pond aqua~ulture and planting young fish in reservoirs.
The Ara~ fur industry has also gone into decline; the drying up of the delta
- has had its impact on purchases of muskrat fur. Mineralization of the water
is growing in these regions, which leads to a drop in the yield of agricul-
tural crops. These losses can be evaluated in rubles. However, with the dry-
ing up of the Aral we a?so encounter a loss that cannot be quantified by econ-
omists. You understand, of course, that I am referring to esthetic losses,
for the Aral Sea is one of the most marvelous regions of our country.
When Siberian water reaches Central Asia in the future the level of this declin-
ing sea wi~l stabilize. But it is now obvious that it will not be possible to
return it ro its original condition.
That is how we must pay for water. Incidentally, how much does it cost?
Each month city-dwellers pay a very modest amount to the cashier's office for
water service. Yet the kolkhozes and sovkhozes, who pour whole rivers onto -
their fields, do not pay anything at all. They pay for electricity, but not
for water, even though the state usea that same electricity to pump the water.
Suffice it to say that roughly one-third of the planted area in Uzbekistan is
irrigated wiCh water delivered by pumpsl We have built large machine irriga- -
tion canals such as the Amu-Bukhara and Karshi canals. The latter is designed
to raise water 130 meters to the steppe. The electric pumps installed along
- this manmade river use as much electricity in a year as was produced by all
the power plants in Tsarist ~ussia. That is how the scale of things in our
region has changed.
But naw we see that the water, whose delivery to the fields costs so much
human labor, does not cost the waterer anything. No matter how much water
is used. this is not reflected at all in the economic indicators of the bri-
gade or the kolkhoz. In practice, therefore, an unspoken rule is often fol-
lowed: it is better to use too much water than too little.
This statement cannot help causina alarm. It is no accident that many special--
ists at the all~-Union economic conference in Tashkent raised the question of
paying for water.
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Speakers at the conf~rence recalled that a paym~nt for water was once insti-
tuted in the Uzbek SSR, during the 1950's but it was later abolished. At that
time the decision was correct, for science then was unable to recommend ade-
- quately substantiated norms of water use. It turned out in practice that the
additional expenditures were carried by farms who were developing difficult
land that required large vol~es of w~ter for flushing. As a result, instead
of being rewarded for bringin~ virgin land into producti.on the farms paid a
_ penalty for overuse of water. In practical effect ~hey :~ere punished for
developing new lands. Price policy is a subtle economic tool. Sometimes it
comes out in a completely unexpected way. Nonetheless, life demande that a
payment for water be instituted again in the interests of water conservation.
Other regions of the country, for example Kirghizia, are already undertaking
such efforts. But as participants at the conf~rence observed, this experience
has not been et?tirely succeseful. What has happened in practice has been a
"shifting of mon~y from one pocket to the other." Therefore, the conference
proposed that a more refined system of charges for water be worked out. It
reco~ended that such a system be introduced gradually, after testing in par-
ticular regions. It is essential to solve the probleme of keeping strict
accounts of water. At the present time the kolkhozes and sovkhozes do not have
measuring devices and the nolume of water delivered to divisions and brigades
is in fact determined "by eye." Only the test fields of the scientific re-
search institutes have water measuring instruments today.
It is particularly important to charge for water today, when we are preparing
to receive it from the Siberian rivers. Every cubic meter of this distant
water will cost 80 kopecks. But economists figure that this will still be
barely half the cost of water from local reserves which it is planned to take
before the end of the century by rebuilding the existing irrigation network.
After all, it is very expensive to "dress" the ca:zals in "concrete clothing."
Machine builders knaw very well that it is very expensive to improve the
machining of parts. Costs rise sharply with a higher grade of inetalworking.
In the same way, "fine tuning" will be quite expensive in irrigation. But the
efficiency of the irrigation system cannot be raised without such expenditurea.
And, of course, it is the ~ob of the economists to determine the wiae limits
of such "fine tuning."
The conference showed that economic acience faces many challenges. One of the
most. important is to find economic mechanisms that will permit us to organize
efficient use of water, a precious natural resource. The 25th CPSU Congress
called this a ma~or economic problem. A. N. Kosygin, chairman of the USSR
Council of Ministers, said in his talk at the congress, "We must focus attention
on steps toward economical uae of water. Agriculture has ma~or reaervea for
water conservatien, especially in the large amount of water used for the needs
of irrigation. These reserves must be utilized."
In concluding my remarks on the scientific conference, I would like to give the
main conclusion of the meeting of scientiats: it is absolutely essential to
build a manmade river from Siberia to Central Asia. This pro~ect ehould be
carried out quickly as possible to prevent the occurrence of a gap in time
between depletion of local moisture resources and the arrival of Siberian water.
If we delay we are threatened by a decline in the yield of our fields and ma~or
economic losses.
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We are still hoping that this vast construction project will begin in the
near future. It wi11 be one more manifestatir,n of the friendship among
Soviet peoples, who have joined their effarts to carry out the most grandi-
oee plans.
There is a saying in the East: When you go to work with a friend, the snow
is melted away." Sueaking of snow, it is solid water, after all, and, as
everyone today knows, will be "�uel" for the thermonuclear power plants that
are expect~3 to supply geople with adequate, inexpensive electricity in the
future. For now, the fraternal Soviet peoples have already begun reversing
the flow af rivers and moving mountains.
COPYRIGHT: "Zvezda Vostoka", 1980
11,176
CSO: 1800/370
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PLANS FOR SUPPLYING WATER TO CENTRAL ASIA, KAZAKHSTAN .
Tashkent PRAVDA VOSTOKA in Ruasian 30 Dec 80 p 3 _
[Article by A. Bostandzhoglo, candidate of technical sciences: "Life Hurries �
On"]
[Text] "...To continue scientific and design studies on
the transfer of water from Siberian rivers to Central Asia
and Kazakhstan." (From the CPSU Central Committee draft
for the 25th Party Congress)
This problem became apparent long ago and has been under discussion in connection
with the development of a depopulated region resulting from the dwindling supply
of fresh water to the Aral Sea and the Amudar'ya and Syrdar'ya deltas. Various
areas of the deltas along with reservoirs and part of the estuarine coastal
waters have lost agricultural, fishing and fur trade value. The water supply of
population centers is suffering. Under these conditions it is not to be expected
that the considerable land resources available here can be used efficiently.
In essence, the region's problems can be aolved only by transferring a portion of
the flow of the Siberian rivera Yenisey, Ob' and Irtyah to Central Asia and ~
Kazakhstan. Only then will favorable conditione exist for developing irrigated
farming and for full provision of the area's fast-growing population with essen-
tial foodstuffs, grain, veg~tablea and fruits and only then will the potential
- exist for intensive cotton and rice cultivation ae well as other types of agri-
culture and industry.
It is lik~ly that at least three five-year plans will be needed to put a specific
program into practice for development of the region`a farming and water manage-
- ment. That is to say, this amount of time will be required for developing the
technical and economic bases, completing research and development and getting the
projects operational.
The pro~ect's technical and economic bases (TEO) include plans to construct a
feeder canal taking water from the Ob' River near the city of Belogor'ya at the
northern mouth of the Irtysh and routing the head section of the canal along the
left-bank bench of the Irtysh River valley. .
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After 316 kilometere, the canal's head section will join up with the head waters
of the Tobol'skiy water distribution system which is planned for the Irtysh and
from there the water will be conducted southward to the Turgayskaya ravine via a -
series of five pumping stations.
- After crossing the Turgayskaya watershed, the canal route will continue to follow
a southerly direc*_ion and, 1,39C kilometers from the Irtysh, will join with thP r
planned Tegizskoye reservoir. Then it will change course to the south-east,
intersect the Syrdar'ya River near the city of Dzhusal and come out into thz
Amudar'ya River near Dzhumurtau. ~
Thus, the overall length of the feeder canal from the Tobol'skiy water distribu-
ticn system to the Amudar'ya will be 2,230 kilometere. ~
Three different primary water supply systems are conaidered for the canal in the
- technical and economic bases. The main water supply will be taken from the Ob'
River in the first and second phasea of the transfer. The Ob' and Yenisey with ~
_ their huge drainages will be the main rivers used in the flow diverted to the
Central Asian republics and Kazakhstan. A system of distribution laterals will
be built to the west and east of the main canal to supply water to ad,jacent
regional industrial complexes.
Development work on the sequence and scale of the operations is being done by the
Institute of Water PYOblems of Che USSR Academy of Sciences, as the chief scien-
tific research organization, together with 120 other scientiiic research insti-
tutes. The environmental impact of the transfer on the zones from which water is _
diverted, its transportation and allocation are under investigation. These
studies arrive at the same basic conclusions.
Land resources suitable for irrigation in the Aral Sea watershed amount to 50
million hectares.
Water resources in the Aral Sea basin will be exhausted in the near future, but -
approximately 8.5-9 million hectares of land could be irrigated using the natural
flows of the Amudar'ya and Syrdar'ya. Development of ~he national econonry in this
area until practically the end of the century will probably be oriented toward
utilizing local water resources, which will require developing new control
reservoirs, further improving and very carefully conserving surface and under-
ground water resources and also reexaminin g the optimum aiting of reservoir
facilities.
Diverting part of the flow of Western Siberian rivers to Ce~itral Asia and
Kazakhstan will create new opportunities for developin g irrigated farming in the
vast lands of the Aralo-Kaspiyskaya watershed, carrying out particularly wide-
spread reclamation and developin g industry and civil water services for the
enormous territories of Western Siberia, the Urals, Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
The task is made even more urgent by the fact that the size of the population is
growing rapidly in Central Asia and Kazakhstan.
- A reduction in the flow of river water to the Aral Sea wi11 cause a further
- lowering of its level and an increase in salinity. We note that the pro~ected
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diveraions of water to the sea basin may not stop Ches,e processes in practice.
Right now, along with investigation of c::,e unfavorable consequences of drying up
the Aral 5ea, an unremitting aearch is be~Rg made for compensatory measures
which, as far as possible, would prevent th~ae effects from occuxring.
Of course, certain changes will tak~ place in the environment after a portion
of the Siberian river drainage is diverted but they will i~ave a local character
on the whole. Previous studies have shown that limited redistribution of the
flow on the scale outlined for the first phase will not produce climate change
on a global scale.
Particular attention must also be given to further development and extension of
~ research on hydrogeological conditions and, as the first priority, on more
accurate determination of the amount of seepage from various sections of the
canal.
- Since the firs t phase of the transfer of the Siberian rivera' flow could be
accomplishe3 no earlier than the end of the century at best while the natural
water resourcea of the Amudar'ya River will be exhausted by 1990-1995, it will
probably be necessary to draw up a general plan for redesigning and rebuilding
_ the existing irrigation systems of Central Asia and to discover a way to intensify
the utilization of water resourcea of the Amudar'ya and Syrdar`ya, primgrily by
- increasing regulation of the river flow and raising the efficiency factors of
irrigation systems and the effective utilization of reservoirs, underground water
and certain other sources.
An interrepublic Amudar'inskiy and Syrdar'inskiy watershed department will prob-
ably have to be formed to allocate water resourcea among irrigation diatricts on
the basis of developed and coordinated regulations for ~oint operation of all of
the watersheds' reservoirs. At the same time, it would be advisable to set up
a bureau to control the ~oint operation of reservoir stages in the Amudar'ya and
Syrdar'ya wateraheds.
An applied science conference took place recently in Nukua concerning problems
of the Aral Sea and the Amudar'ya Delta. Scientiets assembling in Nukus from all
over the country agreed unanimously on the need for a very rapid start of opera-
tione. So, it wae propoaed that the phrase "...to continue scientific and deaign
. studies on the transfer of water from Siberian rivere to Central Asia and
Kazakhstan," which appears in a section of the CPSU Central Committee's plan
"Development of the Agricultural Production Complex," be replaced by "To cou~r� ~e
scientific and deaign studies on the transfer of water from Siberian rivers tc
Central Asia and Kazakhstan and to begin performing the basic operatione."
CSO: 1800/236
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FQR OFFICIAL, TJSF ONiY
INSTITUTE'S PROJECTS =
Tashkent PRAVDA VOSTOKA in Russian 8 Jan 81 p 3 =
[Article by director of the Sredazgiprovodkhlopok Institute V. Antonov in the
- colu~ "Discussion of the Plans of the 25th Congress of x.he CPSU Central Com-
mittee" : "Plans and Life" ]
[Text] The final year of the lOth Five-Year Plan h~s come to an end ~nd each
worker and crew is evaluating the results of plans made by the 25th Congress of
the Co~unist Party of the Soviet Uaion, what resources remain unuaed and what
can be done to welcome the 26th Party Congress appropriately. All of this, natu-
, rally, also involves the staff of the Sredaziatskiy Order of the Red Banner of
~ Labor State Planning, Surveying and Scientific Research Institute on Irrigation
and Reclamation Construction--Sr~dazgiprovodkhlopok--imeni A. A. Sarkisov which
for more than 50 years has been devoting its efforts and knowledge to imple-
menting Lenin's magnificent plan to develop irrigation in the Central Asian
republics . -
The Sredazgiprovodkhlopok staff has also done excellent work during the lOth Five-
Year Plan. Every year it has fulfilled the assigned quotas and socialist commit-
ments. Over the 5-year period, 53.5 ~llion rubles worth of work has been
accomplished, meaning that 205 p rojects were turned over to clients, 27 standard
operations were completed and s tudies were conducted on 49 scientific themes
during this period. Among the studies done by the institute were large-ecale _
projects such as "A Design for the Com~rehensive Utilization and ProCection of
Land and Water Resources of the Syrdar'ya River Basin," "Technical and Economic
Basis for Procedures To Divert the Flow of Siberian Rivers to the Aral Sea Basin,"
"A Comprehensive Engineering Design for the Second Phase of Irrigation and Develop-
ment of the Karshinskaya Steppe," "A Design for a Water Supply Dam on the Kokcha in
Afghanistan," the sovkhoz pro3ects "Uzbekistan" and "Druzhba" for Ivanovakaya
Oblast in the RSFSR and others. In addition, planning and estimate documentation
at the detail plan and engineering design stage has been produced for current
construction proJects involving more than a billion rubles worth of construction
and installation work. The inatitute ia doing moet of the work to order for -
Glavsredaziraovkhozstroy [Main Adminietration for Central Asian Sovkhoz Irriga- -
tion System Construction] in whose system it is directly included.
- Following the resolutions of the 25th Party Congress, the highest priority pro-
jects of the Sredazgiprovodkhlop ok Institute are deveiopment and irrigation of
the virgin lands of~the Golodnaya, Karshinakaya and Dzhizakskaya steppes and
= construction of the Andizhanskiy reservoir. Acco~ding to the institute`s plane,
200,000 hectares of new irrigated land have been readied for cultivation and
the first and second starting systems of the Andizhanskiy reservoir have been
made operational and approved by the State Commission with an excellent rating.
This success becomes even more noteworthy when it is coneidered that large
savings above the estimated cost were achieved, almost 20 million rubles, because
the plan adopted during development incorporated efficient engineering aolutions
into the Andizhanskiy reservoir construction.
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An institute-designed starting system with a 600 million cubic meter capacity ~
for the Talimardzhanskiy res ervoir on the Karshinskaya steppe, a starting sysee~r:
- for the Dzhizakskaya main pumping station and other projects were also put into
gctive operation. �
Last year the institute staff completed development of technical and economic
~ bases for the third phase of irrigation for the Karshinskaya steppe and the
Nizhniy Karshinskiy lateral canal and pumping station stages and irrigation of
the Mubare~skiy tract. In the near future an engineering design will be pro-
~ duced to develap the second phase for the Dzhizakskaya s teppe.
The institute has achieved certain successes but still.has significant unutilized
reserves. The attention of tha administration and party, trade union and
komsomol organizations has b een directed toward putting thQm to uae. Included in
the socialist competition for an appropriate reception of the 26th CPSU Congress
is a plan prop osed by the CP SU Central Committee "Basic Directions for Economic
and Social Development of the USSR in 1981-1985 and for the Period Until 1990." _
The institute staff hae adop ted increaeed socialiat commitments and is devoting
all of its en ergy to their s uccessful accomplishment.
At a recent meeting of executive party members of the Sredazgiprovodkhlopok
Institute where the CPSU Cen tral Committee's plan for the 26th Party Congress
was discussed, a resolution to complete the initiated plans with top performance
and to make a meritorious contribution to further development of irrigated farm-
ing in Uzbekistan, other Central Asian republics and the Ivanovskaya Oblast of
the RSFSR was approved.
It should be noted that successful further development of the virgin lands in
Uzbekistan and other Central Asian republics as well as in Kazakhstan and the ~
planned increase in volume of agricultural production will be possible only by
prov~ding radi cal solutions for the water supply problems. Since the water
reaources of the Central Aaian rivere will be completely exhauated by 19~5-1990,
it will be necessary to comp lete the first phase of the operation to divert part
_ of the f low of Siberian rivers to this region by no later than the end of the
12th Five-Year Plan.
During the years since the 2 5th CPSU Congress, considerable work has been done
by scientific researah inatitutes and planning organizations of our country on
investigating and substantiating the problem of diverting the Siberian water.
It has resulted in the "Technical and Economic Bases (TEO) of the First Phase of
the Transfer of a Portion of the Flow of Siberian Rivers to Central Asia and
Kazakhstan" developed by the Soyuzgiprovodkhoz InstituCe of the USSR Ministry of Land
Reclamation and Water Management. The Sredazgiprovodkhlopok Institute partici-
paCed directly in compoaing this document.
The materi3ls of this TEO are presently being examined by the State Expert Com- _
mission of USS R Gosplan. The work in the Technical and Economic Bases is
detailed enough to allow engineering design and prep aratory work on the transfer
projects to begin as early as 1981. Everything involved in the scale and com-
plexity of the impending cons truction will take considerable time. Therefore,
it is very imp ortant that this pro3ect be implemented promptly without losing a
single year.
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rux ur~r 1c;1tiL u5r: c~rv~,Y
It should be mentioned that the water mana~emeiit and construction organizations
of the Central Aaian republj.cs and Kazakhstan are f.ully capable of beginning work
on the diversion. The Sr.edazgiprovodkh~.opak ~.nstitute is also prepared to under- _
take the development of engineering desi.gns F~?r rhi~ ~~b.
In view of this, the assembled membars of the S.radazgiprovodkhlopok Institute have
proposed that a paragraph be insert,ed in the next edition of Basic Directions
concerning the diversion of the flow of northern and Siberian rivers: "To con-
tinue scientific studies and develop engineering designs for projecta to transfer
a portion of the flow of noxthern and Siberian rivers to the Volga River basin,
Central Asia and Kazakhstan. To begin p.re.paratory work on the first phase of
the transfer projects."
Considering that large pumping stations wi11 t?ave to b e built to divert part of
the rivers' flow, the Sredazgiprovodkhlopok Inetitute has also offered to add
the following paragraph to Basic Directions:
"To develop, fabricate and procure heavy~duty electromechanical pumping and
underground conveyance equipment as well as shut-off ar.d control ha~dware for
- the pumping stations."
8945
CSO: 1800 /,236
~
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IRRIGATION INSTITUTE'S DIRECTOR URGES CONSTRUCTION TO BEGIN
Taehkent PRAVDA VOSTOKA in Russian 18 Jan 81 p 3
[Article by V. Dukhovnyy, director of the Central Aaian Scientific Reaearch
Institute of Irrigation imeni V. D. Zhurin: "Share Your Water, Siberia..."]
[Text] "Insure the rational and economical use of natural -
resources, materials and labor as the crucial and most ef- -
fective means of multiplying the natural wealth of the coun-
try...." (From the CPSU Central Committee'e draf t for the
26 th Party Congress)
The need for water, which gives life to the desert, is increasing. The need to
increase irrigation is always on our agenda. Just how far can we develop irri-
gation in the region with water from The Syr-dar'ya and Amu-dar'ya, however? _
In recent years we have seen increasing evidence that these rivers do not have
an endless supply of water. Apparently, we have reached that point beyond which
nature says "no," beyond which it will no longer be able to cope with the tasks
asaigned to ft.
Today, water from the Syr-dar'ya ia used one and a half to two times. After
watering hundreds of thousands of hectarea it is returned to the river channel
through a system of drains and collectora. The amount of water returned is al-
most the same as the amount removed, but the quality differs greatly.
The mineralizat ion of Syr-dar'ya water hae risen 4- to 5-fold, and scientiets
predict that it will became evea greater as the water shortage and the fre-
quency of its use increase~
The effectiveness of agricultural production will steadily decline as a direct
result.
How far will the mineral level rise if additional water is not delivered to the
region within the next few years? Some tracts of land along the lower reaches
of the river are even now becoming white salt marshes in places. Will this
"white death" spread to the fertile fields of the Golodnaya Steppe, Fergana
and Dal'varzin?
24
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FOR C)F~'1CIA~, ':_I`~~' ~)Nl.`~!
The condition of the Aral Se~ is alarming. I~s water ~.evel. is dropping 40 to
60 centimeters a year, and the shoxe has receded several kilometers within the
past 15 years. Continued lowering of the water level ~r1.11 bring climatic
changes, and the boundary of the cotton cultivat3on area will recede to the
south, as a result.
In 1950, 40 to 55 cubic kilometers of water was entering the Aral Sea annually.
It was receiving only half this amount in the 1960's, and only 10 to 12 cubic
kilometers of water was entering the sea in the 1970's. In some dry years the
Syr-dar'ya has brought practically none of its w~ater to the Aral. Losses re-
sulting from the shortage of water along the lower reaches have increased,
reaching 120 million rubles annually.
Could we stop irrigating?
What would we do about agriculture if we did? How would we meet the growing
food needs of the population? How would we keep the population employed in
production?
Calculations show that if we were to halt the development of irrigation because
water supplies have been exhausted, socioeconomic losses in the form of reduced
national income would exceed 1 billion rubles, and the figure would become even
greater in the future.
What must we do to prevent this from happening?
Within the next few years ae muat complete all ef the pro~ects aimed at reducing
nonproductive water losses. Unquestionably, we are going to have to do a great
deal to achieve more efficient water use, aad this program has become the prime
concern of water management and agricultural agencies in all of the Central
Asian republics for the dacade ahead. Overall improvement of the old irrigated
land is underway universally, a determined batCle is being waged against nonpro-
ductive water losses, irrigation systems are being automated, improved irriga-
tion technology is being adopted, and scientific forecasting is being used for
determining times and norms fox irrigating. This,ie the arsenal of ineans being
placed into action to reduce the water ehortage for some time. All of this also
reduces the voltune of water returned to the syatem, however. Because of this the
net amount of additional water obtained by implementing all the measures simed
at preventing water losses is appraised at 10 to 12 cubic kilometers per year,
which will meet the region's needs for no more than 10 years.
The diversion of Siberian water is the only way to resolve the many urgent
problems.
The ~oining of Siberia's water resources wtth the enormous natural and labor
resources of Central Asia is the way to achieve efficient utilization of re~
serves indicated for us by the CPSU Central Co~ittee~s draft plan for the 26th
Party Congress.
This cambining of resources would make it possible not only to thoroughly solve
the problem of providing employcnent for Central Asia's growing population and
providing it with food, but also ta make a significant contribution to the
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~
accomplishment of the country's food production program, which was discussed
by Comrade L. I. Brezhnev at the October 1980 Plenum of the CPSU Central Com-
mittee.
Increasing the area of irrigated land by only 4 million hectares, using our
own resources and Siberian water, will make it possible to raise an additional
5-6 million tons of rice and 7-8 million tons of feed grain, to increase animal
husbandry output 6- to 7-fold, increase cotton production to 12 million tons
per year, and provide the country an enormous quantity of fruits, vegetables
and grapes.
The problem of reversing Siberian rivers is a grand one, of course, and we have
to give some serious thought to the question of whether it is feasible. -
Our country has everything it aeeds to accomplish the task. More than 100
scientific and planning and surveying organizations are working on it.
The gigantic experiment in water resources development in the republics of
Central Asia proves that the plan ie realistic. A S00-kilometer canal reaches
200 kilometers from the Syr-dar'ya, irrigating the Golodnaya Steppe, a man-made
river, the Karakum Canal, crossea almost 1,000 kilometers of desert, and the
unique Karshinskiy series of large pumping stations lifts Amu-dar'ya watei
180 meters.
Our hydraulic engineers and land reclamation specialists have learned how to
move many thousands of kilometers of earth within a matter of hours. Extremely
intricate p~mmping stations will be placed into operation in a year and a half,
using prefabricated elements and large-unit hydraulic installation techniques
[ukrupnennyy gidromontazh].
The question on the minds of all the epecialists today is how to speed up
construction of the canal and how to reduce the cost.
The canal builders have propoaed digging a primary trench for the canal by means
of directed blasting and then using hydraulic excavation equipment, walking ex-
cavators and other machinery to enlarge the trench. This would considerably
reduce the amount of time required and cut the peak need for machinery by al-
_ most a quarter. -
The SANIIRI [Central Asian Scientific Research Institute of Irrigation] has
been working on this grand pro~ect for a number of years. It has demonstrated
the socioeconomic ~ustification for the pro~ect and produced a forecast of the
development of agriculture at various water supplu levels and with various
amount of work performed toward total renovation of the land. It has proved
that the normal development of Central Asia's agriculture can only be achieved
by diverting part of the discharge from Siberian rivers to Central Asia no later
than 1390. Changes in the mineralization of the flow of the Syr-dar'ya and
Amu-dar'ya have been forecast to the end of the century, both with and without
Siberian water. Work is being performed at special model inatallations to estab- -
lish the parameters for the transfer canal. It has been determined that it
would be possible to increase speed of the flow by 5 to 10 percent over that
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t~ou or rtc~~.i., t~sr ~~;vt.Y
previously proposed. Model studies have been made of various plans for taking
water from the Ob', and the best one has been -recouunended.
Siberian water could reach Central Asia and kazakhstan by 1990, if we unite
~ the efforts of irrigators in the Russian Federation, Uzbekistan and Kazakh-
stan and build the canal from both ends toward the center, and if we use the
basis of operations already created withiri such large organizations as
Glavsredazirsovkhozstroy [Main Administration for Irrigation Sovkhoz Develop-
ment in Central Asia?], Glavrissovkhozstroy [Main Administration for Rice
Sovkhoz Development?] and the Uzbek SS2 Ministry of Land Reclamation and
Water Resources .
It is apparent that local water resources will be exhauated between 1990 and
1992. It will take 10 years to complete the waL-er-diversion pro~ect. If we
are to provide Central Asia with a supply of water by the time we are able to
begin using it s natural resources and developing it, we must not only continue
the planning of surveying work under the 11th Five-Year Plan, as stated in the
draft plan,but we must also begin the actual construction. We therefore con-
sider it easential to state the matter in the following manner: "Begin the
preparatory wo rk for diverting the flow of Siberian rivers to Central Asia."
This will speed up the arrival of Siberian water in Central Asia and Kazakhstan.
It will breathe new life into the extremely fertile land and give rebirth to the
Aral with the water which will be returr.ed to its basin. New land will blossom
into thousands of hectares of fields and orchards. And a reverse "river" of
cotton, rice, vegetables, fruits, watermelons and cantaloupes will flow into
Siberia.
11499
CSO: 1829/148
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ECONOMIC COSTS OF WATER SHORTAGE NOTED
Tashkent PRAVDA VOSTOKA in Rusaian 30 Jan 81 p 3
[Article by Senior Scientif ic Aseociate of NIEI [Scientif ic Research Institute _
- of Economics] of Uzbek SSR Goaplan Z. Salokhiddinov: "The Limiting Factor"] -
[Text] A broad program for further development of the economy and productive
capacitiea of the Central Asian republics was outlined in the CPSU Central
Committee draft for the 26th Party Congress. This economic region of the
country has great potential resources for implementing this plan: f avorable
natural and climatic conditions, availability of land suitable for putting
into crop rotation and mineral, raw material, hydropower and labor resources.
Fram 1981-1985, 1 million 55,000 hectares of new irrigated land will be brought
. into cultivation and about 25 million hectares of pasture supplied with water ,
in the republics of Central Asia and Kazakhstan. In con~unction with this,
not only cotton growing but also other sectors of the cotton and agro-industrial
complex will be developed further.
In the future as many as 25 million hectares of new land can be developed,
wicn i4 million of them most auitable ~o~ top-priority deveiopuient.
But the ahortage of water is a serious limiting factor in the region's develop-
ment.
Both in Central Asia and in Kazakhstan measuree are being undertaken to relieve
the pressure of the water distribution. Specialiste are attempting to increase
the capacity of existing reaervoirs and build new onea, to raise the efficiency
of irrigation systems, to draw on underground water, to reduce mineralization
and contamination of water and ~o purify and use recovered water. But calcula-
tions shaw that none of this can normalize the situation. -
The demanda of living and time are dictating the neceasity of beginning prepara-
tory work in 1981-1985 and in 1986-1990 beginning the diversion of part of the
flow of northern rivers to the Volga basin and of Siberian rivers to Central
Asia and Kazakhstan. Delay in accomplishing this very important task may in-
volve undesirable consequences of an economic, social and ecological nature
not only for Central Asia and Kazakhstan but for the rest of the country as
we 11.
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FOIt OFFICIAL US~: ONI.Y
According to expert estimates, the total direct production loss in the lower
reaches of the Amu-dar'ya considering the prospects for development of the
region amounts to about 600 million rubles per year. The water shortage is
having a negative impact on employment of the population and its welfare,
consumption funds, the rate of accumulation, and the ratea of development of
productive forces.
When there are relatively high rates of natural population growth and negligi-
ble rates of migration, each additional cubic kilometer of water makes it
possible to engage 43,000 people in productive labor in various sectors of
the agro-industrial complex.
8945
CSO: 1829/150
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ECONOMIST ADVOCATES ADOPTION OF MEASURES TO SAVE ARAL SEA
Tashkent PRAVDA VOSTOKA in Russian 31 Jan 81 p 3
[Article by Candidate of Economic Sciences E. Rakhimov and Candidate of Geo-
graphical Sciences E. Zoltarev, sector heads of the Council for the Study of
Productive Forces of the Uzbek SSR Academy of Sciences: "The Tomorrow of the
Priaral'ye"]
' [Text] In the CPSU Central Committee draft for the 26th Party Congress con-
siderable attention was focused on the sub~ect of protecting nature and the
~ rational use of natural resources, with the goal of further improving the work-
' ing and living conditions of the Soviet people.
As applied to the Central Asian region, one of the most important problems
associated with this is the problem of the Aral Sea and the Priaral'ye as a
whole. As is known, the southern part of this zone, Khorezmskaya Oblast and
i Karakalpakskaya ASSR, has substantial land, mineral and raw material, and
human resources which create the prerequisite for sharply increasing the level
, of development of productive forces. However, the task is complicated by a
' number of serious factors, first and foremost the lowering of the level of the
, Aral Sea, along with impending processes of anthropogenic d~siccation of the
, Priaral'ye.
At the end of last year, a joint out-of-town session of the Presidium of the
Uzbek SSR Academy of Sciences and the republic's applied science conference on
"Problems of the Aral Sea and the Amu-dar'ya Delta" took place in Nukus. Scien-
tists and specialists from Moscow and the republics of Central Asia and
Kazakhstan discussed the problem of accelerated development of the productive
forces of this zone in light of the changing natural and socioeconomic condi-
tions.
It was emphasized that it would be possible to increase the production of
cotton, rice and alfalfa, and also livestock produCtion significantly by
providing water to Karakalpakskaya ASSR, Uzbekistan's Khorezmskaya Oblast and
Turkmenia's Tashauzskaya Oblast.
This problem can be fully solved only by bringing in Siperian water.
But much could be done even now. The problem lies in accelerating work directed
toward mitigating the adverse effects of the drying of the Aral Sea.
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Therefore, in the CPSU Central Committee the phrase "and Aral Sea" should be
added to section nine where there it says: "To accelerate the construction
of reservoirs in the Black, Azov, Baltic and Caspian Sea basins," and the
sentence "To carry out planning studies and, during the llth Five-Year Plan,
to begin on their basis to implement practical measures in Priaral'ye to
mitigate the adverse effects of the lowering of the level of the Aral Sea."
should be added to Chapter 10 followiag the words "to improve reclamation
and the provision of water for irrigated land."
8945
_ CSO: 1829/150 A
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IMAMALIYEV URGES RIVER REVERSAL AS MEANS OF INCREASING COTTON PRODUCTION
LD030851 Moscow PRAVDA in Russian 18 Feb 81 p 2
[Article by A. Imama.liyev, academician of the V.I. Lenin All-Union Academy of
Agricultural Sciences and director of the All-Union Scientific Research Institute
for Cotton Farming: "The Irrigated Field: Problems and Opinions"] ~
[Text] Tashkent--From time immemorial the peoples of Central Asia have had a say-
ing: "Put a staff in irrigated ground and a tree will grow." This was the figura-
tive way the ancient peasants spoke of the mighty power of irrigated land. Indeed,
in the conditions of Central Asia, where almost all year round the fields are
warmed by the generous rays of the sun, the ground is capable of giving birth more
than once. In other words in a year several harvests of various crops can be grown
from it.
The chief place belongs to cotton. Given sufficient.water and observance of agro-
technics, this crop produces stable high yields here. That is why its cultivation
on irrigated land in Central Asia is highly profitable. The country needs an in-
crease in harvests of "white gold." How then can we increase production of cotton?
The farmers of Uzbekistan are doing a great deal to provide the country with more
of the valuable raw material. From year to year and from one 5-year plan to the
next they increase harvests. Last year they passed the 6 million mark--the country
received 6,237,000 tons of raw cotton from the republic's farms.
On what basis did they manage to rise to such heights? The successful implementation
of the long-term program for reclaiming land had the prime effect. In the last
decade alone in the republic about 0.5 million ha of new land annually was brought
into use. Irrigation systems are being installed. But by itself this land would
not produce the required output without the golden hands of the masters of high
yields, modern equipment, the use of fertiliLers and other chemical agents and the
introduction of advanced scientific methods, in short, without production intensi-
fication and the improvement of farming standards. If Uzbekistan obtained over 33
- quintals of cotton from every hectare last season this was the direct result of
measures to intensify agricultural production. As the d-r-aft "Basic Guidelines" for
the economic and social development of the country envisage, cotton growing will
continue to develop by this method in the future too.
However, first, we should not rule out other possibilities for increasing cotton
production and, second, it is necessary to solve more actively a number of problems
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inhibiting the development o� the sector. I am referring primarily to the imbalance
between the accelerated opening up of new areae and reservea of irrigation water.
According to specialists' calculations, after 1985 the very limited water resources
of Central Asia will not be capable of providing the necessary moisture for the
- areas which will be brought into agricultural use. Yet there are huge land ~eserves
in this region. In the Aral Sea Basin alone there are tens of milliona of hectares
of land. Wfth sufficient water, they will produce high and stable yields in the
skillful hands of the farmers here. This means the country will receive more cot- -
ton, grain, vegetables, fruit and other crops.
The solution of this important national economic problem could be helped by speeding
up the preparatory work for diverting part of the flow of Siberian rivers to Central
Asia and Kazakhstan. And this is not the only worthwhile ob~ective of carrying out
such a necessary and important plan. Even today the shortage of irrigation water on
land which has been opened up is the cause of a considerable shortfall in the
harvests of various agricultural crops. For example, because of this in Syrdarin-
skaya and Dzhizakskaya Oblasts farmers have been forced to stop irrigation prema.-
turely and instances of crope drying up and yields declining have become more
frequent.
It is quite clear that Siberian water will not come to the fields of Central Asia
immediately. In these conditions it is important to find a way out of the situation
on the basis of local moisture resources and to utilize this moisture with maximum
thrift. Every drop must be cherished like a nugget of gold. What is necessary for
this? Primarily proprietorial attitude to matters: It would be possible to avoid
or at least considerably reduce water losses if canals were concreted on a broader
scale, water seepage reduced, and the irrigation network repaired expeditiously and
always kept in good condition. Such measures would greatly increase the water
utilization ratio. Correct capital planning of fields and consideration of the
relief and special features of the soil are also of great significance here.
In Uzbekistan over half the land is now highly or moderately saline. The absence -
of a good operational distribution and drainage system in such areas means that
cotton harvests are considerably lower and the quality of the raw c~tton is poorer.
Without radical capital amelioration of saline land it is difficult to hope for
~ high output. In this respect the example of Khorezmskaya Oblast is highly indica-
tive--a fair proportion of the fields have been exhausted because of excesa harmful
substances. But now in recent yeara model distribution and drainage systems have
been created here and with their help the level of subsoil waters has dropped and
the soil has been saved from the pernicious action of salts. The fruits of this
"doctoring" are very evident today: Every hectare produces 50-60 quintals of raw
cotton. Throughout the oblaet as a whole over 42 quintals of cotton are obtained
from every hectare.
At the same time 1.5 million ha of land in Central Asia are still awaiting improve-
ment. This will provide an extra annual harvest of over 500,000 tons of raw cotton
and will promote higher fiber quality. It goes without saying that capital irri-
gation work requires considerable funds and the allocation of appropriate equipment.
But practice convinces that the expenditure is recouped with inCerest.
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When applying fertilizers the optimum correlation of the various types is rar from
always maintained. Science and advanced practice has proved that for normal plan~
growth and high cotton yields phosphorus must be applied in a proportion of 1:1 or
aC least 1:0.8 with nitrogen. But these proportions are not observed by any cottc_~~.
growing republic. In Uzbekistan, for instance, the proportien is 1:0.6.. The rea:.oz~
for this is the undersupply by industry of nitrogenous fertilizers. Few trace
fertilizers are being produced--copper, zinc and molybdenum--although their use
has long since been confirmed as advisable.
Nor is it poseible to increase soil fertility without considering organic content.
At the all-union agronomic conference held at the end of last year, it was noted
that in many regions of the country a considerable drop in the organic content of
the soil is being observed. According to scientists, in cotton-growing areas in
the last five decades the humus content has fallen by one-third and the yield is
maintained primarily on the basis of the application of high doses of mineral
fertilizera. This may affect the fiber quality since mineral fertilizers only
contain certain elements: nitrogen, phosphorus, po~assium and aometimes zinc and
copper. For normal plant growth and development a considerably greater range of
nutrients is necessary. This can only be supplied by the application of organic
fertilizers.
The farmers have one more powerful ally--correct crop rotation; with the help of
this, the topsoil is also improving. One of the main crops in the crop rotation
system is alfalfa. In 3 years it builds up about 600 kilograms of biological nitro-
gen per hectare, which is more valuable than the nitrogen from mineral fertilizers.
Repeated experiments have shown chat well-planned cro~ rotation promotes 7-10 quin-
tal increase in cotton yields.
Leading farms in Uzbekistan and other republics attach paramount importance to the
system of alternating different agricultural cropa--the trusty method of wise farm-
ing. However this requirement is often violated, for example, the Fergana Valley
cotton is sown on almost 80 percent of the sowing area. The farms here are faced
with the task of finding as rapidly as possi'~le land reserves for the full intro-
duction of cotton-alfalfa crop rotation. Otherwise there is a threat of an ~ut-
break of wilt--one of the most dangerous cotton diseases. It seems agricultural
organs must think about redistribution of crops so that in all areas of the cotton-
growing republics it is possible to master scientifically based cotton-alfalfa crop
rotation in the next few years.
The achievements in the sphere of irrigated farming in our country are indisputable,
but they muat be consolidated and increased. For this it is important to continue
to carry out broad scientific research in developing new and more progressive
methods of cultivating crops, mechanization and chemical treatment, selection and
seed-growing.
Life demands the utmost striving to introduce scientific achievements into practice
as rapidly as possible and to etrengthen the alliance between scientists and pro-
ducers. Tn this respect it is important to aim more boldly to create science-and-
production and scientific academic aesociations. Thus it would be expedient to
organize a science-and-production aesociation for cotton-growing on the basis of
existing reaearch establishments, WZes, deaign bureaus and experimental farms in
the sector. This would help not oniy to solve more rapidly topical problems of
science and productiun but also to accelerate the introduction of innovations and
to improve the training of highly skilled specialists for modern farming.
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- SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ANALYSES
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ISSUES AND THE SOUTHWARD DIVERSION OF SIBERIAN RIVERS
Washington, D.C. SOVIET GEOGRAPHY: REVIEW AND TRA2ISLATION in English Jan 79
- pp 15-21
[Translation of article in Russian by N. I. Mikhaylov, V. A. Niko~ayev
and I. Ye. Timashev, in VESTNIK MOSKOVSKOGO UNIVERSITETA: GEOGRAFIYA, Moecow,
No 5, 1977 pp 50-56]
[Text] Abstract: Under contract to Soyuzvodproyekt, the water-
management agency, the suthore investigated environmental pro-
tection problems aseociated with the propoaed diversion of the
streamflow of Siberian rivers to the arid regions of Kazakhstan
and Central Asia. On . the basis of physical-geographic investi-
gations; a wide range of ineasures are recomanended, ranging from
the points of water withdrawal on the Ob' River, to the zones
along the main diversion canals and the new areas of irrigation
and pasture watering developed as a result of the project. It
is stressed that some of these measures must be taken as early ~
as the drawing up of engineering designs for the water-diversion
pro~ect as well as during the construction st~ge and after
completion of the pro~ect.
The basic guidelines for the lOth Five-Year Plan (1976-80) called for "research -
and engineer3ng design work relating to the p~oblem of the diversion of part
of the streamflow of North Russian and Siberian rivers to Central Asia,
Kazakhstan and the Volga basin" ("Materialy XXV s"yezda KPSS" [Proceed3ngs
of the 25th Party Congress], M~oscow, 1976, p. 203) . An important part of
the research now under way involves the design of water transfer in the
so-called Midlands Region of the USSR, a vast territory situated between the
Urals and the Yenisey River; and between the Kara Sea and the southern frontier
of the Soviet Union, with a total area of 7 m311ion sq. 1~, a population of
50 million. This territory contains millions of hectares of cropland and
pasture and most of the irrigable land of the USSR.
The water-diversion design worked out by the Soyuzvodproyekt agency calls for
the first-stage withdrawal of 25 cu. km. of water a year from the Ob' and
Irtysh basins and ita transfer tfirough the proposed Ob'-Caspian canal as far
as the Aral Sea. The Iength of the canal, which would run along the Tobol
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River valley and through the Turgay trough to the lower reaches of the
Amudarya, woul~ be 1,700 km; its depth would be up to 15 m, and its width
500 m. In subsequent stages of the pro~ect, water might be withdrawn also
f~om the upper reaches of the Ob' River and partly from the Yenisey, with
an increase in the total transfer volume to 100 cu. km. and the extension
of the canal to the Casgian Sea.
The implementation of the project is expected to yield benef its by making
possib le the utilization of millions of hectares of land in Kazakhstan and
Central Asia that at the present time either is not being us ed at all or
_ only extensively. On the other hand, the diversion of such a large volume
of water is expected to have an environmental impact on the area of with-
drawal, the transit area and the area of destination. Therefore, considera-
tion should b e given as early as the engineering design stage to the three
following aspects: First, the character of 13kely ecological impacts and
the areas affected; second, the nature of both positive and negative impacts;
third, a syste~m of ineasures designed to enhance poaitive impacts and weaken
negative impacta. It would also be useful to define and implement measures
that would insure environmental prote~tion, en~ichment and amelioration
throughout the Midlands Region.
The present paper ie devoted to some of the ecological prob lems to the north
- of the Syrdarya that were investigated under contract w3th the Soyuzvodproyekt
agency.
Any environmental protection measures woulri have to consider: 1) the pecu-
- liarities of the environment in various parts of the study region as well as
their landscape structure; 2) the changes likely to result from the diversion
pro~ect; 3) the existing Soviet legislation dealing with protection of
the environment, land, water, forests, mineral resources, etc. In view of
the uniqueness of the diversion pro~ect, it may be necessary to work out
entirely new approachea to environmental protection in the Midlands Region
and possibly back it up with additional legi~lation. There is also a need
for predicting the likely enviro~ental impact of the proposed water-
management structures and of the use of the diverted water for irrigation
and pasture watering as well as the measures.that ma.y be required for special- _
purpose protection of the en~ironment, for example, the creation of protected
water-conservation zones.
In the area of water withdrawal, in West Siberia, the impact of the proposed
reservoir on the environment of the upper and lower reaches would have to be -
assessed. The present plan calls for headworks on the Ob' River just below
the mouth of the Irtysh River. The f low of water wouTd then be reveraed by
p~nnping stations along the Irtysh to Tobol'sk through three barrages or via
a special canal envisaged by the pro~ect. From a~ma11 reservoir at Tobol'sk, _
whose water level would be roughly the present level of the Irtysh River,
the water would then be diverted into tfie Ma.3n Diversion Canal.
This plan is now being advanced instead of an earlier proposal calling for the
withdrawal of water directly from a large reservoir at Tob ol'sk. Physical-
geographic analqsis showed that tfie creation of such a reservoir, 1,000 sq. km
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in area, would flood the meadow and forest landscapes of the floodplain and
e.ome of the f orests and swamps on the f irs t r iver terrac e. Some cropland
and useful forest land would also be under water. The creation of a large
reservoir in the soutl:ern taiga, where landscapes already suffer from excess
moisture, might raise the watertable and thus Lurther enhance the formation
of swamp and waterlogged forest, some of the present meadow land would be
gradually converted to meadow swampland, and existing awamps would become
even more waterlogged.
The new version calling for a smaller reservoir at Tobo1'sk will be more _
costly in view of the additional electric power required to p~np water from
the Ob' River upstream along the Irtysh. However, it will be ~more cost-
effect ~ve from the standpoint of avoiding env3ronmental deterioration and
preserving valuable farmland and the conditions of industrial development
in the Irtysh valley around Tobol'sk.
Other measures that may become necessary would include compensatory develop-
ment of farmland and amelioration of forest quality; protection and renewal _
of fishery reserves, including fish ladders and other protective devices;
and prevention of hydraulic pressure from the proposed canal that might
further raise the watertable in wet portions of this swampy forest zone.
~ The actual diversion cana].s--the Main Canal, Kulunda Canal and Irtysh-Tobol
Canal (depending on the design)--pass through steppe and semidesert. These
are regions of crop and livesteck agriculture that require strict land
conG~rvation in the design and operation of water-manage~nent pro~ects . Alone
the construction of the canals would remove tens of thousands of hectares -
- of land from agricultural uses. The width of land allocated to these canals
should therefore be kept to a minimum.
Special attention should be given to the conservation of steppe forest groves
in the zone of the Main Diversion Canal (the Aman-Karagay and Naurzum-Karagay
forests) . With a view to preserving these unique forests, canals and approach
roads should be located aC least 5 to 7 km away.
The desert landscapes in the zone of inf~.uence of the Main Canal (sand ridges
and mounds, solonchaks, claypans) are more susceptible to anthropogenic
' impacts than. some of the more northerly landsct=~es . St eps would therefore
have to be *_aken to prevent or at least reduce neg~tive environmental reactions
to the water project by lining the canal in these areas , inhibiting the
destruction of hydromorphic landscapes and of sandy areas as much ae possible,
- and limiting the local use of the canal.
Measures intended to protect the environment of the region and to insure optimal
use of water resou�rces will have to be worked out together with the pro~ect
design~ . These measures would include:
(A) careful planning of the amounts and the prior3.ties of use of the diverted
water for irrigatien and pasture watering in the southern half of the Midlands
Region as wel]. ae the maximum volume of withdrawal from the Ob' River.
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(B) the elaboration of new techniques and improvement of existing methods for
irrigating land in the desert, semidesert and steppe zones to insure more
~ efficient water use a,nd prevent secondary.sal3niaation of irrigated land;
proposed methods ahould be the eub~ect of experimentation in apecial Cesting
grounds;
(C) cheap and reliable methods of lining canals to reduce inf iltration,
eapecially in eandy desert;
(D) recultivation of canal dikes and ameliorat3on of the canal zone, requiring
the selection of suitable tree, shrub and grass species and experimental
cultivation in testing grounds;
(E) working out methods for the development of compensatary agricultural
land in waterlogged areas of the awampy foreat zone, and testing of the
- proposed methods in exper3mental plots;
(F) protectian of f ishery resources in the Ob' and Irtysh basine;
(G) drafting of special environmental protect3on legis3~ation for the water-
diversion area.
Experience has s hown that construction agencies often ignore environmental
- protection meas ures, causing hax~n to natural landecapes. It would therefore
be desirable to set up a special control comm~.i.ssion, made up of representatives
~ of interested minietries, environmental protection agenc3es and local authori-
ties, to insure that conatruction agencies observe environmat~tal regulatione.
The charter for such a control bodq, ~isting its r3ghta and obligations, should
be drawn up and approved at a high level before tihe start of construction.
The alienation of land for construction purpoees must be kept to a minim~ in
the area of future resexvoirs and dams and in new irrigation districts. In
the swampy fore8t zone, the Euture reservoir bed must be cleared, trees must
be felled and peat layers removed in areas slated for flooding.
' Every effort should be made in the course of conetruction work to preserve
existing forests, eapecially near reservoir shores and canals.
Reservoir shores and canal banks must be protected against abrasion and
sl~mmping. At the same time, work should be pressed in tiie swampy forest and
- wooded steppe zones to develop compensatory areas of agricultural land and
useful fores t as well as recreational zones along reservoir shores, sub~ect
to strict controls.
Since local building materials (gravel, sand, brick,clays, etc.) will be used
in construction, contractora will have to make every effort to develop quarries
' with the least damage to the environment; and then recultivate the mined land
in accordance with exisCing legislation.
Canal construction in chernozem and chestnut soils must start with the careful
removal by bulldozers and scrapers of the htunus soil horizon (to ~a depth of
30 to 40 cm), which should then be stacked for later use in recultivation.
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In steppe and semidesert, there are many lithochemical varieties of earth
ma.teriala (saline clays, loesslike loams, sands and gravels) that may be
excavated and either discarded in spoil banks or used in the construction
o~' canal dikes. When freshly dumped, these materials tend to be imstable
and subject to water and wind erosion, sl~ping, compacting, etc. This may
produce the deformation and silting in the canal b ed as well as the degrada-
tion of nearby farmland.
- Spoil banks and canal dikes should therefore be strengthened and protected
against any anthropogenic loads, such as road cons ~ruction or the grazing
and watering of livestock. For the waterina of ne arby grazing lands, water
should be diverted from canals through channels or pipes into the interior
of the steppe.
Since the waterlevel in canals will usually be higher than the watertable,
there will be some loss of water into the canal bed and sides and a rise
of the watertab le. A canal zone 6 to 9 km wide is likely to be affected by
the changing moisture conditions along m~st of the Main Canal, including
exudation of the infiltration water and a rise in the watertable to within
2 meters from the surface, with some cap:Lllary water actually reaching the
surface. A canal zone of such width would generally be affected in the
swampy forest, wooded steppe, steppe and semideszrt, buC the affected zone
is likely to expand to several tens of kilometere in some areas, especially
in desert depressions, where waterlogg3ng and solonchak fo nat~Go.n may be
expected. These phenomena might be avoided by soil drainage systems and
lining of the canal.
An effort should be made to recultivate land in the canal zone af ter construc-
tion; this might include grass seeding and afforestation on exposed subsoils
to convert disturbed land into pasture and forest. The most favorable soils
for biological reclamation are loesslike loams; loose eand and especially
saline clays are less suitab le. Unsuitable subsoils should be covered by
loam to as great a depth as possible. Biological reclamatio~ can be further
pramoted by covering expoaed subsoil with a humus layer of 20 to 30 cm,
using previously stacked humus material.
Our experience with the biological reclamation of disturbed land in the eteppe
of the Midlands Region suggests a need for selecting plant species that are
both drough t- and salt-resistant. The best plants for that purpose are
perennial grass mixture~. The most importanr componenta should be legumes
(sweet cloa7~er, alfalfa, sainfoin) which enrich the soil with assimilable
nitrogen, as well as cereal grasses.
Other suitable plant species for the reclamation of disturbed land are trees
- like the weeping birch, box elder, scotch pine (in the steppe) and shrubs
like acacia, sweetbrier, Russian olive, ta~risk, sa1C tree, dzhuzgun (Calligonum)
and pea shrub (in steppe and semidesert).
In the process of construction, steps must also b e taken to guard against water
pollution during the operation of the canals. TEiis may require the setting
aside on both siues of the canal of a protected zone in which access to
livestock and the discharge of wastewater would b e prohibited.
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Together with the completed pro~ect~ any operating rules and environmental
protection measures required by law would enter into effect. Water users
whose activities might affect the condition of reservoirs and canals would
be expected to take steps to prevent pollution and to inaure optimal water
use, especially for irrigation.
On the Ob' River, care must be taken not to exceed the approved volume of
withdrawal fo r diversion to the south (especially in dry years) in accordance
with seasonal needa b oth in the areae of irrigation and pasture watering
and in the lower reaches of the diversion reservoir. In an effort to neutralize
the impact (espe~.ally on fisheries) of ~a reduction of the height and duration
of the flood stiage in rivers of the swampy forest zone, management of the
reservoir must provide for regular drawdowns intended to flood the floodplain
(or parts of it) in the lower reaches. The flooding of the middle level of
the floodplain, where the most valuable hay meadow occurs, is particularly
important. Drawdowns for flooding the upper level of the floodplain wi11
probably not be desirable since prolonged flooding of the uppe~ level is
likely to cause damage to the local economy.
Care must also be taken to maintain a minimtun waterlevel in the lower reaches
for flustiing purposes since a reduction of streamflow associated with the
pro~ect would raise the concentration of pollutante entering the river with
industrial and household waetes. Reservoir drawdowns for fluehing purpoaes
are particularly important in winter on the Ob' River fn view of common
fishkill phenomena. These affect not only f isheries, but also the quality
of water used in induatry and households. Meaeures are also needed to preserve
water quality in the diversion reservoir and canals, using the criteria for
the maintenance of water-supply sourcea. A reduction of reservoir drawdowns
for flushi?ng purpoaes would be fraught with particularly undesirable conse-
quences in the swampy forest zone since a decline in the natural minimum
streamflow wo uld occur at the expense of runotf from areas not affected by
fishkill.
_ The construction of diversion canals, irrigation of large areas of cultivated
_ land and the watering of rangeland may facilitate a resolution of marry problems
of environmental protection in the ateppe and semidesert landscapes of
Kazakhstan, including control of eoil blowing and overgrazing of natural range.
The usual method of controlling wind eroaion, namely the planCing of windbreaka,
has been hampered by the aridity of climate and the high lime and salt content
of soil and subeoil. The planting of windbreake may be greatly facilitated
by periodic watering of seedlings.
The overgrazing of natural steppe and aemidesert range arisea mainly because
of the uneven livestock load on range provided witfi watering aources and
range not supglied with water. Ttie range would be watered more uniformly
as a res~lt of the construction of feeder pipe from the main diversion canals
to stock-watzering places. It would also b e ueeful to introduce paeture
rotation and to improve pastures periodically by reaeeding and irrigation,
which would convert steppe and semidesert range of low productivity into
productive pasture,
- 40 .
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Phe availability of water in the steppe and wooded steppe of the Midlands
Region should also be used to revive the dense network of lakes that have
gradually been drying up in recent decades. We can envisage a diversified
lake econoiny in the future, including fisheries, the raising of waterfowl
and fur animals such as muskrat, the harvesting of natural fertilizer
(the organic sapropel ooze of lake bottoms), aquatic forage plants (duckweed)
and crustaceans (the mornrysh, a g~arid amphipod). The revived system of
lakes would also constitute an importanC element in the overall watering
system.
Once the diversion canals start functioning, it will be quiCe natural for
the local population to try to settle along the new watercourses. The
formation of new settlements will be inevitable. However, areas should be
stri ctly allocated for that purpose and~ insofar as possib le, the existing
settlements of canal builders should be transferred to the loca3. population.
Inevitably, there will also be the construction of industrial establishments
along the canal, but they must ~aot be permitted to pollute the water and
the soil. Similar restrictions should be imposed on recreational zones.
Environmental protection considepations should also guide the irrigation of
new cropland and the development of atockraising (the creation of new
watering places, ].imitations of the liveatock load on rangeland, control of
bacterial infestation of water, etc.).
' The use of the Siberian water on the right bank of the Syrdarya will be quite
limited, and the needs of the northern Aral region will have to be met f rom
the Syrdarya's own streamflow, groundwater and artesian water. The Main
Diversion Canal in this region will have to be dug through highly dynamic
landscapes of loose sand and saline depreasions so that the maintenance of
cana 1 lining, prevention of soil salinization and the afforestation of sandy
areas in the canal zone will assume particular importance.
COPYRIGHT: 1978 Scripta Publishing Co.
CSO : 1829 / 214
: 41
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UDC 551.58:551.48:330.I5(47+57-191.2)
PREDICTIVE EVALUATIONS OF THE Ct~IMATIC CONSEQUENCES OF TE~ REDISTRIBUTION OF
WATER RESOURCES IN THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE USSR
Moscow IZVESTIYA AKADEMII NAUK SSSR: SERIYA GEOGRAFICEIESKAYA in Russian No 5, Sep-
Oct 80 pp 35-50
[Article by L. A. Chubukov, Yu. L. Rauner, K. V. Kuvshinova, L. S. Potapova and
Yu. N. Shvareva, Geography Institute USSR Academy of Sciences]
jExcerpts] Abstract: On the basis of field observations and
office processing of extensive data the authors
- evaluate the influence which the redistribution
o~ waters in the Central region wj.l.l exert on
changes in the principal components of the meteor-
- ological regime and on the structure of weather,
as well as on the moisture cycle over the Central ~
Asia region. The conclusion is drawn that the
macroclimate will not change; directed changes are
expected only at the micro- and meaolevels; they
will also be partially reflected in types of F
weather.
1. Some general points. A geosystemic analysis and predictive evaluationa of pos-
sible changes in the environment in connection with proposals being developed for '
the ahifting of some of the river flow into the arid regiona of the US9R ie a
timely problem in Soviet developmental geography. In this article we discuas some
possible changes in the climatic link, representing an important component of the
entire natural complex. The authors proceed on the assumption that in the next 15-
20 years, that is, for all practical purposes to the end of ~he present century,
no clearly expressed climatic trends are expected in this territory, in particular,
its thermal regime and atmospheric humidity. In any case, short-period climatic
anoma.lies with a cycle from one to several years, caused by the atochastic varia-
bility of the macrocirculation regime, will create dispersions of the climatic
fields, in absolute value exceeding the trend dispersions considerably. The work
recently carried out for Western Siberia (Glukh, Kononova, 1978) also revealed -
some differences in the atmospheric moisture in this reg~on, especially its north-
ern regions, being manifested during the more prolonged period between the last -
two circulatory-climatic epochs of the 20th century. A general tendency to a de-
crease of precipitation attd a lowering of temperature is proposed as a prel,iminary
background forecaaat for the next epoch. In the future further corrections can be
introduced with refinement of our concepts concerning the possible character of
the impending circulatory-climatie epoch both for the entire northern hemisphere
and far a particular sector.
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~,~~~a ~~F!~r��~n~, +!tiF. ()N~.Y
An analysis of available climatological studies for the Central region (Orlova,
1962; Shvareva, 1963, 1976; Zhukov and Potapova, 1972; Chubukov and Shvareva, 1959;
Shvareva, 1969; Uteshev, 1972; Kuvshinova and Chubukov, 1958; Kuvshinova, 1968;
l:uvshinova, Orlovskiy, 1978; Kuznetsova, 1978, et al.), and also materials from
expeditionary and office investigations of the long-Cerm regime of individual
ineteorological elements and local weather in different parta of the region,will
make it possible to make some preliminary predictions. The most important of these
is that the diversion of the waters of West Siberian rivers (Ob~ and Irtysh) to
Kazakhstan and Central Asia in a volume of 25 1~3 will not lead to a change of the
present-day macroclimatic characteristics of the entire Central region, governed
by the characteristics of the radiation regime and atmospheric circulation in the
extratropical latitudes of the northern hemisphere, and also the conservative char-
acter of the major properties of the geographic medium in this region.
The principal directed changes in the meteorological regime are expected only at the
micro- and mesoclimatic levels, and to a certain degree may also be reflected in
a change of weather classes. The most important changes should be manifested in the
arid parts of the considered territory, especially due to a sharp change in the
thermodynamic properties of the underlying surface and tr~nsfo rmation o~` the strur-
ture of the thermal and radiation balances in the atmospheric s urface layer. The
vertical scalea of such "disturbances" are characterized by s everal tens of ineters
and the horizontal scales by several kilometers.
Although such a conclusion to some degree has the characteris tics of an expert eval-
uation, it is quite convincing since it has been supported by most climatologists
participating in the discussion of this problem at an interdep artmental conference
at Valday early in 1978 (see Malik, et al., 1978).
~ Below we give a detailed exposition of the most important res ults of investigations
of different clima.tological aspects of this problem carried o ut in the Climatology
Section Geography Institute USSR Academy of Sciences.
Studies recently made (Budyko, et al., 1978) indicate, in part icular, that.applic-
able to the Central region of the USSR in the 21st century there can be a substan-
tial increase in atmospheric moistening and an increase in the level of the resources of
the f1ow, primarily in regions of extraction of water with a relatively small
change in the hydroclimatic regime in arid regiona. In the f uture it will probably
be necessary to make a moxe detailed examination and comparison of special climatic
and ecological predictions for the more remote future for the particular variant ap-
plicable to the problems involved in the geographical redistribution of water re-
sources.
We emphasize in conclusion that the evaluation of background changes in climate in
the coming decade unquestionably is one of the key problems in a geographical pre-
diction of the state of the environment as a result of interbasin diversion of
str.eamflow. However, the climatic aspect of this problem follows directly from
solution of the timely problem of superlong-range predict3.on of the dynamics and
evolution of global and regional clima.te, a fundamental approach to whose solution
has only very recently been made by climatologists. Its scien tific content is com-
- plex to the highest degree and in the future success will be dependent to a consider-
able extent on the concentration of efforts of different scien tific di~ections in
the modern science of the earth's climate.
_ ~ 43
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
lo Babkin, V. I., Voskresenakiy, R. Po, Ivanova, I. B., Plitkin, G. Ao, Zakharova,
N. P., Grube, To V., vasil'yeva, Lo A., "Methodological Principles for Calcul�-
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3. Galenko, E. P., "Energy Factors of Productivity of the Coniferous Forest of -
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Observatory], No 49, 1955.
7. Glukh, I. S., Kononova, N. K., "Variations of the Climate of Siberia and the _
Background Climatic Forecast," IZV. AN SSSR, SER. GEOGRAF., No 1, 1978.
8. Gorbunova, I. G., Orlovskiy, N. S., Utina, Z. M., "Change in Temperature and
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~Problems in Exploitation of the Deserts], No 6, 1974.
9. Drozdov, 0. A., Grigor'yeva, A. S., VLAGOOBOROT V ATMOSFERE ~M~oisture Cycle
in the Atmosphere], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1963.
10. Drozdov, 0. A., Grigor'yeva, A. S., "Influence of Change in Evaporation from
Large Territories on Precipitation of a Particular Region and Adjacent Terri-
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11. Drozdov, 0. A., Sorochan, 0. G., Shiklomanov, I. A., "Possible ChangEa in the
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14. Zhukov, V. M., Potapova, L. S., "Most Important Characteristics of Weather and
Climate of the Ob'-Irtysh Interfluve," PRIRODNYYE USLOVIYA OSVOYENIYA MEZ~IDU-
RECH'YA OB'-IRTYSH [Natural Conditions of Exploitation of the Ob'-Irtysh In-
terfluve] , Moscow, 1972.
15. Kordau, 0. L., "Moisture Cycle of the Plain and Foothill Parts of Central
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16. Kuvshinova, K. V., "Change in Precipitation With the Full Uae of the Waters of
the Amudar'ya for Irrigation," IZV. AN SSSR, SER. GEOGRAF., No 2, 1964.
17. Kuvshinova, K. V., "CLIMATE", SREDNYAYA AZIYA. SER. PRIRODNYYE USLOVIYA I
YESTESTVENNYYE RESURSY SSSR [Central Asia. Series Natural Conditions and
Natural Resources of the USSR], Moscow, "Nauka," 1968.
18. Kuvshinova, K. V., Orlovskiy, N. S., Principal Features of Climate and Micro-
climatic Resources," KARAKUMSKIY KANAL I IZMENENIYE PRIRODNOY SREDY V ZONE YEGO
VLIYANIYA [Karakum Canal and Change in the Environment in the Zone of its In-
fluence], Moscow, "Nauka," 1978.
19. Kuvshinova, K. V., Chubukov, L. A., "Climate," SREDNYAYA AZIYA LCentral Asia],
Moscow, Izd-vo AN SSSR, 1958.
20. Kuznetsova, L. P., PERENOS VLAGI V ATMOSFERE NAD TERRITORIYEY SSSR [Moisture
Transport in the Atmosphere Over the Territory of the USSR], Moscow, "Nauka,"
1978. '
21. Laykhtman, D. L., FIZIKA POGRANICFINOGO SLOYA ATMOSFERY [Physics of the Atmo-
spheric Boundary Layer], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1970.
22. Malik, L. K., Chubukov, L. A., Shvareva, Yu. N., "Information on the Conference
at Valday," IZV. AN SSS,�., ~~n. ~EOGRAF., No 4, 1978.
23. MATERIALY METEOROLOGICHESKIKH ISSLEDOVANIY. ISSLEDOVANIYA STRUKTUR KLIMATA V
POG~DAKli. TSIRKULYATSIYA ATMOSFERY I KLIMAT. CH. I i II [Materials of Meteoro-
_ logical Investigationa. Investigationa of Climatic Structures in Weather. Cir-
culation of the Atmosphere and Climate. Parts I and II~, Moscow, Mezhduved.
Geofiz. Komitet, 1976, 1977.
24. Mezentsev, V. S., Karnatsevich, I. V., UVLAZHNENNOST' ZAPADNO-SIBIRSKOY RAV-
_ NINY [Moistening of the West Siberian Plain), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1969.
25. Molchanov, L. A., "Postulated Changes in Climatic and Hydrological Conditions
in Central Asia During the Development of Irrigation in its Southern Zone,"
TRUDY UZBEKSKOGO FILIALA GEOGRAFICHESKOGO 0-ilA [Transactions of the Uzbek Af-
~ filiate of the Geographical Society], Vol II, 1955.
26. Morozova, M. I., Chernysheva, 0. N., "Moisture Content and the Transport of
Moisture During the Period of Cyclogenesis Over Central Asia," TEORETICHESK.
I PRIKLADNo METEOROLOGIYA [Theoretical and Applied Meteorologyj, No 2, Tash-
kent, "FAN," 1976.
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= 27. Morozova, M. I., Chernysheva, 0. N., "Moisture Content and Transport of Mois-
ture in Central Asia on Days With and Without Precipitation," TEORETICHESK.
I PRIKLADN. METEOROLOGIYA, Issue 3, Tashkent, "FAN," 1477.
28. Orlova, V. V., ZAPADNAYA SIBIR'o KLIMAT SSSR [Western Siberia. Climate of the
- USSR], No 4, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1962a
29. Plitkin, G, A., "Water Balance of Western Siberia," TRUDY GGI [Transactions
of the State Hydrological Institutel, No 228, 1976.
30. PRIRODNYYE REZHIMY SREDNEY TAYGI ZAPADNOY SIBIRI [Natural Regimes of the Taiga
in Western Siberia], Novosibirsk, "Nauka," 1977.
31. Rauner, Yu. L., "Total Evaporation of Forest Vegetation," IZV. AN SSSR, SER.
GEOGRAF., No 3, 1966.
32o Rauner, Yu. L., TEPLOVOY BALANS RASTITEL'NOGO POKROVA [Heat Balance of the
- Plant CoverJ, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1972.
33. Rauner, Yu. L., "Synchronism of Droughte in the Grain Regions of the Northern
Hemisphere," IZV. AN SSSR, SER. GEOGRAF., No 1, 1979.
34o REKAMENDATSII PO RASCIiETU ISPARENIYA S POVERKHNOSTI SUSHI [Reco~nendations o n
Computing Evaporatioa from the Land Surface], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
- 1976.
35. Romanov, V. V., ISPARENIYE S BOLOT YEVROPEYSKOY TERRITORII SSSR [~vaporation
- from Swamps in the European USSR], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1962.
36o Uteshev, A. S., ATMOSFERNYYE ZASUKHI I IKH VLIYANIYE NA PRIRODNYYE YAVLENIYA
[Atmospheric Droughts and Their Influence on Natural Phenomena], Alma-Ata,
"Nauka," 1972. .
37. Utina, Z. M., "On the Problem of Traneformation of Temperature and Humidity
During Irrigation," TRUDY GGO, No 297, 1973.
38. Ushintseva, V. F., "Computation of Moisture Content and Water Vapor Transfer
in the Atmosphere Over Central Asia," TR. SARNIGMI [Transactions of the Cen-
tral Asian Regional Scientific Research Hydrometeorological Institute], No 16,
(97), 1975.
39. Fel'dman, Ya. I., "Role of Oases in the Deserts of Central Asia in the Forma-
tion of Local Weather With Drying Winda," TR. IN-TA GEOGRAFII AN SSSR, VYP. 48.
VOPROSY KLIMATOLOGII [Transactiona of the Geography Institute USSR Academy? of
Sciences, No 48, Problems in Climatology], Moscow-Leningrad, Izd-vo AN SSSR, -
1950.
40. Chelpanova, 0. ri., SREDNYAYA AZIYA. KLIMAT SSSR [Central Asia. Climate of the
USSR], No 3, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1963.
~ 46 . ,
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41. Chubukov, L. A., Shvareva, Yu. N., "Principal Features of Climate in Weather,"
KLIMAT KAZAKHSTAN [Climate of Kazakhstan], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1959.
42. Shvareva Yu. N. "Climate " ZAPADNAYA SIBIR' . SER. PRIRODNYYE USLOVIYA I YE5T-
~ ~ r
ESTVENNYYE RESURSY SSSR [Western Siberia. Series Natural Conditions and idatural
Resources of the USSR], Moscow, Izd-vo AYd SSSR, 1963.
43o Shvareva, Yu. N., "Climate," KAZAKHSTAN. SER. PRIRODNYYE USLOVIYA I YESTEST-
VENNYYE RESURSY SSSR [Kazakhstan. Se~ies Natural Ccraditions and Natural Re-
sources of the USSR] , Moscow, "Naulca," 1969.
44. Shvareva, Yu. N., KLIMAT ZAPADNO-SIBIRSKOY RAVNINY V POGODAKH [Climate of the
West Siberian Plain in Weather], M~oscow, "Nauka," 1976.
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel~stvo "Nauka", "I2vestiya AN SSSR, seriya geograficheskaya",
- 1980
5303
CSO: 1865/94
% 47:,
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TWO RIVERS REVERSAL MODELS DEVELOPED BY INSTITUTE
Tashkent ZVEZDA VOSTOKA in Russian No 12,1980 pp 13-19
[Article by Viktor Dukhovnyy, director of SANIIRI [Central Asia Scientific
Research Institute of Irrigation]: "Advances in Irrigation"]
[Excerpt] The extensive application of the advances of scientific and engi-
neering progress as a whole with respect to water management in the republic
involves large capital investments and long time periods. In spite of all -
the measures associated with rational utilization of the existing water re-
sources their shortage steadily will become more acute. An effective means of
fundamental solution of many of the problems generated by the water shortage
is the redirection of water into Central Asia from those regions of the coun-
try where there is a water surplus. Siberia has just such a surplus. The
resolutions of the 25th CPSU Congress transferred the river reversal problem
from the sphere of hypotheses to the rails of practical realization. In the
resolutions of the Congress it was stated: "To carry out scientific investi-
gations and then perform on this basis planning studies associated with redi-
rection of part of the flow of the Northern and Siberian rivers into Central
Asia and Kazakhstan and into the Volga River Basin."
Tl~e river reversal plan has no analog in worldwide practice. The resolution
of so grandiose a task can be carried out only by the powerful planned economy
of a socialist society. More than a hundred of the country's scientific and
_ planning and surveying organizations are already occupied with the realization
of this epochal task.
Studies have been made at SANIIRI for a scientific basis of specific aspects
of the river reversal plan, primarily the hydraulic calculations of the para-
meters of the pro~ect. Two unique large-scale models have been constructed
at the Institute. Stu~lies related to selecting the most rational scheme of
water diversion from the Ob' River into the reversal canal without the use of
- dams are being carried out on one of the models. Studies are being made of
the schemes of the hydro system to be constructed near the city of Belogor'ye,
where the Siberian water will begin its two-thousand-kilometer run to the cot--
ton p'lantations and orchards of Central Asia. The parameters of the future
river reversal canal are being studied on the other model. The scientists must
provide the planners with precise reco~mendations on the dimensions of the
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canal and the water flow velocities in order to ensure stability of the stream
bed and minimal volume of earthwork. The researchers are developing a prognosis
for the change of the quality of the water in the Aral Sea basin as a result of
the reversal and are participating in the social and economic ~ustification of
the need for this gigantic project, which is extremely important for successful
development of the Central Asia region.
Sh. R. Rashidov, first secretary of the Uzbek CP Central Cammittee and candidate
member of the Politburo of the CPSU Central Commi ttee, wro te in an article en-
titled "On the Road to Unity and Fraternity" the following: "It is becoming
clearer than ever that the united efforts of the peoples, their unified will,
their collective thought are capable of resolving any problem of our social lif e.
This is showing up with new vigor in the broad and creative search for ways and
means for the realization in the future of a tremendous pro~ect--the re~irection
of part of the flow of the Siberian rivers into Central Asia, which will make it
possible to irrigate millions of hectares of presently arid lands and will make
it possible to initiate a sharp increase in the rate of development of the agra-
rian sector of the economy of the entire country."
In formulating the basic ob~ectives which the party set b efore the country's
_ agriculture in the lOth Five-Year Plan, L.I. Brezhnev, general secretary of
the CPSU Central Committee, said in his Accountability Report at the 25th
Party Congress: "....~o secure for the country a reliable supply of food and
raw materials, always to have adequate reserves for this purpose." The scien-
tists of Uzbekistan's water management organizations are contributing their
part to the resolution of this national task.
COPYRI(~iT: "Zvezda Vostoka", 1980
9576 _
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UDC 556.047
THE PROBLEM OF THE CASPIAN SEA
Nbscow VODNYYE RESURSY in Russian No 5, 1980 pp 5-20
(Article by D. Ya. Ratkovich, USSR Academy of Sciences Institute of Water Problems,
published as a starting point for discussion]
[Text] The Caspian Sea is the earth's largest water basin without an outflow--it
collects water from a territory of about 3 million km2, and evaporates it from a
water surface area presently totaling about 360,000 km2. Z'he northern Caspian,
which has an average depth of about 5 meters, is sharply delimited by its bottom
relief.
- The natural inflow into the sea is estimated at 3I5 km3/year, with more than
three-fourths of this total being provided by the Volga.* The sea's mean salinity
is stable (close to 13 ~/00)? but according to (21) within the limits of the
northern Caspian, freshened by Volga discharge, salinity fluctuates significantly
(from 5 to 12 ~/00) .
Nbre than 100 million hectares of agricultural land are contained in the ba~ins
of rivers flowing into the Caspian. More than a third of the country's industrial
and a fifth of its agricultural products ar_e produced and a thir.d of its hydro-
electric power is generated in these basins. They are responsible for a fourth
of the total fish production of the country's inland water basins, and the
sturgeon catches make up 90 percent of the world total. Marine and river trans- _
portatior~ is broadly developed in the basin: Just the Volga and its tributaries
alone handle 70 percent of the freight turnover of the European USSR's inland ~
water routes.
The demands placed upon the regimen of the Caspian Sea and of the rivers flowing
_ into it by different sectors of the economy are inconsistent, which crea~tes a
number of con~licts (16) . .
Thus development of irrigation has significantly reduced the flow of the
- basin's Caucasian rivers, and the plans for irrigating new land will noticeably
* Different publications offer different estimates of the inflow into the sea.
However, because apparent evaporation from the sea's surface is defined as the
remainder of the equation for the water balance, change in normal inflow would
also change normal evaporation; therefore these minor differences have practically -
no influence on forecasts of the sea's lsvel (Author).
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reduce the flow `of the Volga, the Kura, and the Ural. Because the flow
of the Volga is subjected to multiple use, there is not enough water to support
development of ir'rigation within the Volga basin (due to the limited capacity of
the reservoirs); considering further growth of the annual withdrawals of more than
10-15 km3 for these purposes, in low-water years we will have to settle for reduced
energy production by hydroelec~ric power plants and narrower navigable cliannels.
Moreover maintenance of navigable depth along the lower Volga requires a water
flow rate of up to 4,000 m'/sec below the Volgogradskiy fiydraulic engineering
complex in the summer-fall low-water period, which is about twice the domestic
consumption. The guaranteed output of hydroelectric power plants in the Volzhsko-
Kamskiy cascade and the Mingechaurskaya (on the Kura) and other GES' s can'be
achieved in the presence of a signi.ficant increase of winter domestic water c:on- _
sumption only by decreasing the height and duration of the high-water period. This
has an unfavorable effect on spawning conditions in the lower reaches of the Volga,
as well as on the moisture supply afforded to land of the Volgo-Akhtubinskaya
floodplaiii and the delta. On the other hand the dumping of water unused oLZt of
Volgogradskaya Reservoir to provide water to land lower down and to maintain the
minimum necessary spawning conditions on the Volga would be accompanied by signi-
ficant energy losses.
Final~_y, a decrease in the flow of water into the Caspian owing to irreversible
withdrawa? of water from the basin would promote increased salinization of the
sea's northern part and create the conditions for a decline in its level. If it
turns out to be long-lasting, a further drop in the level of the Caspian Sea in
comparison with the present level would do tanqible harm to fisheries, and it may -
~ elicit undesirable, irreversi.ble processes.
For these reasons the water management balance of rivers in the Caspian basin, and
mainly the Volga, is already being looked at with concern, even though the flow
witlidrawals are relatively low: about 10 percent in the basin as a whole, ta include
about 5 percent of the Volga's flow.
Low water in the 1930's dropped the level of the Caspian Sea by about 2 meters, and
- the increasing withdrawal of the flow of the basin's rivers and the expendi-
~ ture of water to fill reservoirs caused further reduction of its level (14) ; the
present position of the sea at about the -29 meter mark is approximately in keeping
~ with the gravitation level, given the present irreversible losses of flows
estimated at 35-40 km3/year.
Change in the level of the sea affects fisheries primarily. The most valuable
migratory fis}ies--the sturgeons, salmonids, and fish of secondary commercial im-
pc;:. `.ance=-enter the rivers only for spawning as a rule, living in the seas for the _
_ most par the seas are where the fish put on weight: The lowest links of the
trophic chains involved in the transformation of biogenic flow into the feed
base of fish form here.
~ The hig~t biological productivity of the Caspian is associated with active solar -
radiation, the influx of large quantities of biogenic salts, intense photosynthesis
in the vast shallow-water zones, and the unique composition of fauna in the pro-
ducing ecosystems (6). Th~ total catches per km2 of the riorth Caspian
S 1
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have been more than 50 centners per year. Note that the species composition of
the flora and fauna may be preserved in the face of
significant violations of the optimum conditions (this has occurred many l-imes iii
the past). The problem here is to restore the high biological produc}ivity of the
Caspian Sea (16).
The biological productivity of the Caspian Sea, as was noted earlier, depends mainly
= on the biogenic flow of the Volga and on freshening of the shallow zone of the
north Caspian (this supports effective photosynthesis) by waters of the Volga and
the Ural. This is the location of the priricipal fish fattening ground. The salinity
' and saturation of biogenic salts in the northern Caspian depend not only an the
fiow volume but also on its distribution in space, which is typified b~y re la-
tively ai,undant inflow of water into the western part of the northern Caspian, and
limited inflow a.nto the eastern part. Reduction of the Volga's discharge (particu-
larly during high-water periods as a result of flood control) and a arop in the
level of the sea have resulted in greater flow in western and lower flow in eastern
channels of the delta.
As a result of a drop in sea level, the area of the northern Caspian ~aecrease d by
- about 35,000 kmZ between the 1930's and 1975; this includes a decrease in productive
area of 15,000-18,000 km2 (Kaydak~Bay and contiguous shallow-water :~ones have never
- been productive).
Bottom relief has a great influence on the salt regimen of the western and eastern
zones of the northern Caspian. Between 1933 and 1975 the cross section along a
line extending from the island of Dzhambay to the island of Nbrskoy decreased by
more than two times. Water exchange between the western part of the northern
Caspian, which is freshened by the Volga, and its eastern par.t, which is freshened
by the Ural, is decreasing. When the sea level drops to the -29.5 meter mark, the
area of the .limiting cross section along the line extending from Dzhambay to Mo rskoy
would decreas e to 0.2 km2, which would be only 27 percent of the 1933 cross-sec tional
area. The water area of the no.rthern Caspian exhibiting a salinity above 12 0 0 _
(that is, water not suited to the life of brackish-wat~r fauna), would climb to
40,000 km2. Naturally the Ural would not be able to freshen the eastern part of
the northern Caspian (40,000-45,000 km2), and the en~:~re water area east of the
- Dzhambay-Nbrskoy line may transform into a salt lake with any further decline in
sea level. As the level of the sea decreases, an increasingly larger proportion
of Volga wate rs will flow through channels in the western delta directly into the
central Caspian, carrying bi.ogenic elements away.
- A water divider has now been prepared for operation at the top of the Volga delta.
With its help, the bulk of the high-water flow will be channeled into the
eastern delta (especially in low-water years). The idea behind the water divider
i.s that it would be better to supply a lot of water to a little of the delta than
to supply a 1 ittle water to all of the delta. Nbreover it would become possibl e
to keep the water in the central part of the northern Caspian fresh, and to maintain
the inflow of nutrients ir~ the face of a certain decline in Volga flow and
sea level. However, the water divider will not completely compensate for unfavorable
changes in the regimen of the northern Caspian in response to a decline in its level.
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We mu:~t re.~;iq~;Hq tihr: demarids imposed upan th~ Caspian Sea by different sectors of
the i?atiorial economy in connection with the planned measures for optimizing the
sea's rzgimen (6). In this case we should not fail to note that the natural regimen
of the sea is not optimum from the standpoint of national econom~c and natural -
complexes relying on it; if the optimum is to be achieved, compensatory measures
will have to be implemented. Recovery of the natural regimen of a water basin can
sometimes require great outlays by water users adapted to an altered regimen.
From the standpoint of fishing interests the present low position of the sea's
level is critical. The requirements imposed upon the sea's leve 1 by other economic
sectors can be briefly summarized as follows.
On one hand a decrease in sea level would somewh at worsen the conditions for water
' intake, but any significant rise in the level of the sea would mean the flooding
of many inhabited regions, enterp rises, and structures (bridges, gas and electricity
lines, quays, and so on) ; on the oth2r hand a decrease ~n its level has created
better conditions for the growth of reeds--the raw material of cellulose industry.
A decrease in depth associated with a drop in se a level would cause change in the
ice regimen of the northern Caspian unfavorable to petroleum industry: The drifting
of ice into the vicinity uf oilfield facilities on Apsheron Peninsula and to
Dagestan could lower the stability of platforms , reduce the depth of approaches _
to oilfields, piers, and ship repair enterprise s, and make it necessary to perform
additional dredging operations. A further drop in sea level would make it more diffi-
cult to supply industrial water to the oilfields.
Marine transportation is experiencing difficul ties due to the de creasing dept.~ of
approaches to old ports (new ports, built after the drop in sea level in the
~ 1930's, were designed to allow for the present s ituation). ,
Within the limits of the Caspian's western coas t, which is freshened by Volga
discharge, weakly mineralized water is of inte rest as an irrigation resource, and
in part as a source of water for agriculture. If the sea level drops, we will nave -
to expect a certain degree of freshening of coas tal waters in this zone.
Even considering the present low level, cert.ain sections of railroad passing through
low-lying places can experience damage; a rise in sea level of any significance
whatsoever would be undesirable from this point of view.
In general the national economy is probably interested in an insignificant rise
in sea level--approximately to the marks about which it fluctuated in the early
1970's. In essence the issue of attaining an optimum levelfor the Caspian Sea has
lost its importance. In the situation now at hand, we need to halt the decrease
in sea level as quickly as possible and, despi te growth in wate r consumption, insure
that it does not drop below the -28.5 meter marlc on the average, with permissible
temporary decline in climatically unfavorable periods to not be low the present
mark (-29 meters) .
The swift growth in water consuinption in southern sea basins, and particularly
the land-locked Caspian 5ea, is to be expecte d. On one hand the principal water
user--irrigation--is developing most intensive ly in the arid zone, ti'Zere evapora-
- tion exceeds precipitation; on the other hand i t is only within the limits of this
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zone that water basins without an outflow may arise (topographic depressions having ,
sufficient surface area to pezmit evaporation of inflowing water and precipitation
falling on this surface). Therefore at a particular level of the economy's
deVelopment it will become necessary to implement compensatory measures aimed at -
minimizing the unfavorable consequences of reduced inflow into the sea. _
Compensatory measures may take several directions: a) direct compensation of
flow withdrawals by transfers of water from water-abundant regions to the
basins of the southern seas; b) reduction of evaporation from the sea surface by
separating off parts of the water basin that are of secondary importance to bio-
logical productivity; c) redistribution of river flows into the seas throughout -
their water area; d) regulation of flow rate in the water basins.
These compensatory measures are intended to be long-term measures, and as a rule
they require a long time for planning and exploration, for construction of the
appropriate facilities, and for the start-up of their normal operation. Hence it
follows that they must be based on predictions of the sea's regimen reaching a~
least several decades into the future.
The present forecast of the sea's regimen is in keeping with the accepted hypothesis
- that water consumption will grow within its basin, and with the calendar schedule
for impleznenting water management measures influencing inflow. Such raw data, ex-
tending several decades over the future, are always conditional to one extent or
another, since the plans for the national economy's development are not written so
far into the future, since water use technology may experience significant changes,
since tY�e time required to make water management facilities ready for normal opera-
tion cannot be accurately predicted, and so on. Therefore beyond at least the
immediate decade, the hypothesis that water consumption will grow cannot be
accepted without reservation; water consumption must be represented by a"branching"
of values diverging with time, and the calendar schedule of water management
measures must be given in several variants. In this case the principal water user-- -
irrigation--must be described not by estimated requirementa for water based on a
dry year, but rather by mean perennial values, which may be about 15 percent lower
_ than the estimated values of, for example, the Caspian Sea basin.
The stochastic nature of geophysical processes and absence of dependable weather
predictions make it necessary to describe streamflaw and other elements of the water
balance in terms of probabilities, given a stable norm, and the etability of other
- parameters of the probability distributions (20).
~ _ -
In principle the elements of the water balance, which reflect changes in climate,
are unstable. However, in this case we are dealing with relatively short intervals -
of time: On one hand the time of observations does not usually exceed 60-80 years,
while on the other hand the characteristics of the regimen are extrapolated just a
few decades into the future because, as was mentioned earlier, it is impossible to
predict development of the economy and of water use technology with a greater
lead time. In this situation a description of the elements of the water balance
may be based only on the hypothesis that they do remain stable; as far as the sea -
is concerned, considering the changing character of water use and implementation of
compensatory measures, its regimen will always be unstable.
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Prediction of the water level is the starting point for predictions o~ different
elements of the regimen of a water basin without outflows--that is, of hydrochemical,
hydrobiological, and other processes occurring within the water basin. The proce-
dure for predicting water level can be tiought of as sufficiently developed today
- (4, 8, 12-14, 17, 18, 22, etc.). -
Water entering lakes and seas without outflows is evaporated from their surface;
natural fluctuations in river discharge, in the amount of precipitation falling on
the surface of the water basin, and in the amount evaporated from the surface cause .
fluctuations in the level of relative equilibrium (the gravitation level).
When we use a linear approximation of the relationship between the level of the sea
z and the area of its wa~e~ surface F= cz +bz, the ~3ravitation level would take the form
- Z~ -[l ,
b C e 1 (1~
where V--mean inflow into the sea, with a consideration for streamtlaw withdrawals
in the basin, and for replenishment of streamflowbY ~versionsof water from without;
e--normal apparent evaporation (evaporation minus precipitation) from the sea sur-
face.
When the shores are other than vertical, the fluc tuations undergo damping, and the
more gently the shores slope, the greater is the damping effect (for example a
1 percent decrease in level lowers the gravitation level by a third of a meter in
the Caspian Sea) .
Predicting the level of a water basin without an outflow for a particular period of _
time in the future boils down to solving two prob 1 ems--determining the water level
~ in average hydrometeorological conditions, and evaluating its probable deviation.
For the Caspian Sea, we can limit ourselves to analyzing the trend of the water -
level over yearly time intervals, inasmuch as changes occurring within a particular
year are found to be approximately one order of magnitude smaller.
In average hydrometeorological conditions, if the the sea's leveldiffers from the gravi-
tation level, it will change in time in accordance with a law close to exponential.
When streamflow withdrawals in the basin increase and the influence of compensatory
measu.res upon inflow into the sea varies, it would be best to perform the computa-
N tions successively in relation to yearZy interval s using the formula
" yt _ u- u~ -f- u~ 2
Zr+i = z~ -e f = zj - e a bz ' ~ ) ~
! (
where za--water level in the i-th year; z3--normal inflow; ui- and zt2+--volumes of ,
water withdrawn from the basin and added to it re spectively, in the 2-th year.
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The probable deviation of the sea's level ~zZ from that in keeping with the averagc
meteorological conditions of the period of the forecast can be expressed as a condi-
tional standard deviation of the level, vZ, depending on natural variability of
the elemen~s of the water balance, on their autocorrelation and mutual correlatioi�*,
the morphometry of the water basin, and the forecasting period i. The confidence
li.mits for a forecast with lead time i can be written in the form
- - zi*_Zt+e~=~;-!-�vr, (3>
where the quantile of the normal distribution u is selected depending on the given
probability of the level's deviation from its mean: The deviation computed by
formula (3) would not be exceeded with a probability of 80 percent at u= 1.28, ~
with a probability of 90 percent at u= 1.64, and with the probability of 95 percent
at u = 1.96 (Table 1).
~ Table 1. Probable Deviations in the Level of the Caspian Sea From Values
Corresponding to Average Climatic Conditions
~
ezt ~.t Followiryg ,Confidenc~
Forecast
~ Qt
Lead Time i, ~ I. ~ ~
~ 5 0,38 ~ 0 5 0,6 0,7
!0 0,52 0,7 0,8 i,0
' 20 0,87 0,9 i,i !,3
30 0,72 0,9 1,2 !,4 -
00 0,80 i,0 1,3 1,6
In a number of cases the procedure used to evaluate probable deviations of sea
level from the average is more complex, and Table 1 becomes useless. This happens
when natural fluctuations in elements of the water balance are superimposed by
fluctuations in water consumption, by losses of water due to flooding, by changes
in the volume of redistributed flow, and by other effects functionally asso-
ciated not with time but rather with the water content of rivers feeding the
basin or with the level of the sea (we encounter the last of these cases, ir~
particular, when the volume of flow to be diverted each year is determined
with regard to the level of the sea).
In all of these cases the regimen of the water basin must be studied in relation to
th~ set of possible realizationsof hydrometeorological conditions in the period .
of the forecast (3', 18). This means that the computations should be made in rela-
tion to ensembles of series of elements of the water balance. With this purpose
* Z`he zone in which the inflow into the sea forms is far removed from the water basin;
the water source and the water basin exist in different physical and geographical
conditions. Therefore there is practically no correlation between fluctuations in
inflow and evaporation, wl~ich has an effect on the range of fluctuations in level:
When the correlation betwepn inflow and e~raporation is positive, the range is
greater~ and when this correlation is negative, the range is smaller (20).
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we model several dozen (and sometimes several hundred*) realizations of inflow
and apparent evaporation, covering a time equal to the lead time of the forecast;
chronological graphs of water consumption, flow losses, and change in river water
content caused by implementation of water management measures are superimposed
over each pair of realizations of inflow and apparent evaporation. A gicen growth
rate of water consumption and a given chronological sequence of implementation of
- water management measures are common to all of these graphs; at the same time they
are unique in terms of the influence annual flow has on the size of flooding
losses, the sea's revealed demand for water subsidies, the amount of water the
source of diverted water can provide in a given year, and so on.
- Performing the water balance computations, we obtain a corresponding number of
realizations of trends in water level; joint treatment of these trends would provide
a picture of the behavior of the sea level in both average and experimental condi-
tions (when high water discharge coincides with low evaporation, and vice versa).
When modeling temporal series of the elements of the water balance, we can use a
simple Markoff process wi:h linear correlation between the frequencies of adjacent
- terms as the stochastic model (20). It is reco!rrcnended that the numerical parameter
of the model--autocorrelation coefficient r--be given for river flow depending
on the river's unit rate of flow (the flow module). In application to the
~ conditions of the Caspian Sea, the autocorrelation of inflow and apparent evapora-
tion can be adopted equal to 0.3 (14, 20).
Let us now go on directly to an examination of a prediction of the Caspian Sea's
level depending on the rate of conditional growth of water consumption within its
basin. In this case we should consider the possibility for bringing water in from
the Volga to compensate for the yearly irreversible withdrawals in the Azov basin
(conditionally, 5 km3 per year beginning in 1985, and 20 km3 per year beginning in
1995) .
The calculations were performed in application to growth in water consumption
changing in time according to a linear law, ~t= at, where a takes values in the
interval from 0 to 2 km3/year (0, 0,5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 km3/year are the values
for the first through fifth variants of growth in water consumption respectively).
Thus by the end of the century, growth in water con~umption will change from 0 to
40 km3/year. It should be noted that the calculations were made with regard to
cessation of water outflow in Kara-Bogaz-Gol beginning in 1980; this was adopted
� as the beginning of the forecasting period. At the beginning of this period the
sea level was set at the -28.6 meter mark, which corresponds approximately to the
gravitation level that would apply to water consumption in thE basin totaling
40 km3/year. The results of the calculations are shown in Table 2. As we can see
from this table, assuming average climatic conditions for the period under examina-
tion, by the end of the century the level of the sea will drop down to -29 meters
and even more, with all variants of water consumption (with the exception of the
fi~st two). In unfavorable climatic conditions, which are characterized in Table 2
* The volume o~ statistical trials is determined theoretically (when possible) on
the basis of the desired accuracy of the results, or from the data of the computa-
tions themselves. Stable results in repeated series of computatians can serve as
the sufficiency criterion.
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by frequency levels of 90 percent (in 10 percent of the cases the levels would be
even lower), the sea would drop to a point within the interval from -29.4 to -30.4 _
meters, depending on the rate of growth of water consumption; in the next decade we
can expect a further decline in the level by 0.2 (f~~� the second variant) to 1.0
meters (for the fifth variant) .
Table 2. Prediction of the Level of the Ca~pian Sea in the Absence of Compensatory
Measures .
~ 1~ (2) Orrerxa ypoexn (wxxyc ~ abc.) npx axavexx~x a
rox -
0 I 0,5 I I,0 I 1,5 I 2.0
E3)� B cpeptiHx K][NA12TN4lCKHX ycnoexAx -
1985 28,8 28,6 28,6 ~ 28,6 28,7
i990 28,6 28,8 28,7 28,8 28,9
2000 28,5 28,8 29,0 29,3 29,5
2010 28,5 29,0 29,5 30,0 30,5
~L~~ B N26J[2i0I1piiHTHbD( K11NM2TH9eCKNX ycsoeusx
1985 29,i 29,1 29,i 29,i 29,2
1990 29,3 29,3 29,4 29,5 29,6
~ 2000 29,4 29,7 29,9 30,2 3U,4
_ 20i0 29,4 29,9 30,4 30,9 31,4
f
~5` B aJ13fOJIpNATHdX !(AHIN8TH4eCKNX yCJ108HAX
l985 28,1 28,! 28,1 28,! 28,2
1990 27,9 27,9 28,0 28,1 28,2
. 2000 27,6 27,9. 28,i 28,4 28,6
2010 27,6 28,! 28,6 29,! 29,6
Key:
l. Year 3. In average climatic conditions
2. Sea level (minus m abs.) for 4. In unfavorable v::..aatic conditions
differe nt values of a 5. In favorable climatic conditions
Correspondingly, i n favorable climatic conditions there is a 10 percent probability
that the level of the sea will not go below present levels in the current century,
while with relatively low rate of growth of water consumption (up to 1 km3/year) it -
would exceed the present level by about 0.5 meters.
Nevertheless the probability of the desirable parameters of the level of the sea
(not below the -28.5 meter mark in average climatic conditions and not lower than
-29.0 meters in un favorable conditions) turns out to be impermissibly low (see
Table 3). Levels below the -28.5 meter mark have a probability significantly greater
than 50 percent, wYiile levels below the -29.0 meter mark have a probability signi-
ficantly greater than 10 percent. By the end of the century this minimum level will
be characterized by a probability greater than 50 percent in relation to all variants
of growth of water consumption, with the exception of the second, corresponding to
an increment in wa ter outlays within the Caspian basin totaling just 10 km3/year by "
by the end of the century. A drop in the level of the sea to points lower than -29.5
_ meters will be suf ficiently probable by this time.
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Table 3. Probabilities of Typical Levels of the Sea in the Absence of Compensatory
Measures
~ 1~ ~ 2~ BCpOATNOCTb, npx i9l9EMXAX Q
ron
o I o,s I i.o i,a s,o
! 3) Ha orMerxax xxme -28,5 ~c
f985 84 60 60 &5 65
~ggp 55 60 65 70 75
2000 50 65 80 90 94
' 20i0 50 75 90 98 98,8
Ha oTMerxax xNxce -29,0 ~
1985 15 i5 15 15 20
i990 20 � 25 � 3U 35 40
200 26 0 75 92 8
Ha or~wetxax xame -29,5 x
1985 1 ! 1 i i
~ 1990 3 4 8 8 i0
2000 6 i5 25 35 Stl .
2010 8 25 50 75 92
Ke~~ :
1. Year 3. For levels below
2. Probability, for different .
values of a
It should be noted that the levels of the Casp.ian Sea cited here were arrived at
- without regard to possible diversions of part of the Volga's flow into the
Azov basin by way of the Don. Consideration of the volumes of these diversionswould
mean an additional decrease (over the amounts shown in Table 2) in the level of the
Caspian Sea of 0.5-0.6 meters by the end of the century, and 0.8-0.9 meters by the
year 2010. -
~ Were we to orient ourselves on average climatic conditions, we would have to keep
the present water balance of the Caspian about the way it is now--that is, growth
in the expense account of the ledger would have to be compensated by growth in its
revenue account. Maintenance of the sea's balance would require diversionsof water -
into the Volga basin from without. An estimate of the scale of these measures would
have to account for, in addition to development of water consumption in the Caspian
Sea basin, the need for supplying water from northern rivers to the Azov basin via
the Volga. Development of the principal water consumer--irrigated agriculture--
should be planned and carried out in conjunction with compensatory measures.
One of the additional ways for maintaining the level of the sea would be to reduce
the evaporation area by isolating the eastern shallows of the northern Caspian, which
have no value to fisheries. In terms of plankton and benthos, the feed base of the
shallows is correspondingly 3-5 and 1.5 times lower than in the eastern half, and
10-15 and 10 times lower than in the western half of the northern Caspian. Because
~ , 59�
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of intense heating, the rate of evaporation of water in the shallows is sufficiently
high, with evaporation proceeding both from constantly flooded areas and areas
intermittently covered during floods. By diking off the shallows, we could save
up to 10-12 km3 of water per year in the Caspian's water balance. However, erection `
of an isolating dike would be suitable only in integration with other water manage-
ment measures aimed at mair..taining the level of the sea.
B. A. Apollov suggested maintaining the northern Caspian at its present level by
diking it off from the rest of the sea (2). As a result fresh streamflow, which
enters mainly the northern part of ttie sea, would be retained in a volume necessary
to maintain the sea at a level not below the target (for example the -28.0 meter
mark). Surplus water could be dumped into the central Caspian (if its level is
lower ) .
However, it is entirely obvious that erection of a separating dike would not only
fail to solve the problem, but it would also be unsuitable (19). Thus in a few years
the salinity of the northern Caspian would decrease to 0.5-1 ~/00, owing to which
its biological productivity would decrease dramatically. Maintenance of the nAeded
salinity north of the dike by pumping saline water into this part of the sea from
the central Caspian would necessitate a piunping volume commensurate with the
flow of the Volga. South of the dike the level of the sea will begin to drop
. quickly, in which case fluctuations in the level of the sea will increase over
present values by several times in response to variations in inflow and
evaporation. As a result sluices would have to be created at thE mouths of rivers
entering the sea south of the dike, and marine ports would have to be rebuilt. The
possibility that fish could migrate through a gate in the dike is highly doubtful,
such that the feed resources of the central and southern Caspian would be cut off
- from the bulk of the basin's fish school.
Some of thesP unfavorable consequences may be avoided by supplying only part of the
Volga's flow into the northern Caspian, enough to compensate for evaporation
from the surface of the sea north of the dike. In this case the surplus discharge
should be directed right into the central Caspian by a specially erected canal, and -
the level of the sea south of the dike could be maintained by divertin~ water
from the Black Sea.
However, this system of ineasures would necessitate delivery of two-thirds of the
Volga's biogenic flow south af the dike, and we know right now that this would
be very expensive. Diversion of Black Sea waters into the Caspian Sea, we would have
to build a canal bypassing the Caucasian range and crossing several watersheds. As
a consequence the unit outlays on achieving such a transfer would be high, but they -
would not help to preserve the biological productivity of the sea. ,
The supply of Black Sea water into the Caspian Sea in amounts that would compensate
for withdrawal of fresh streamflow will doubtlessly permit us ta keep the average
level of the Caspian favorable, and control of the voltune of entering water depending
on the flow rate for the year will afford a possibility for reducing the amplitude
of fluctuations in the sea's level, which is also desirable. At least within the
next century, diversion of 50 km3 and more of salty (18 ~/00) Black Sea water into
the Caspian Sea each year would not noticeably increase the mean salinity of the
Caspian Sea; however, this would create the preconditions for a number of unfavorable
consequences (5, 6).
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Thus due to significant reduction of fresh inflow the area of freshened zones in ~
the narthern Caspian would grow smaller, and "spots" of high salinity may possibly
appear out in the open sea; as a result the zone of brackish water, which is the
eite of the feed base of all commercially valuable fishes~ including sturgeon fry
and 3uveniles, would grow smaller. The volume of the biogenic flow into the
northern Caspian would decrease noticeably (by several dozen percent), which would
have an unfavorable effect on the sea's productivity.
Density stratification will become more intense in the zone of inflow of Black Sea
waters into the Caspian (owing to their greater density in comparison wi th the
waters of the northern and even the central Caspian), which may result in oxygen
depletion in the benthic horizons and formation of asphyxiation phenomena; a salt
~ barrier and an oxygen-deficient zone with a shar~rly depleted benthos would arise
on the west ahore of the sea, acroas the migration routes of sturgeons from the
central to the northern Caspian.
Hydrobionts (for example ~ellyfish and (rapan)) may penetrate into the Caspian
with Black Sea waters, which would dramatically reduce production of plankton and
benthos; the consequences to Caspian fauna may be disastrous.
Finally, it is not presently possible to evaluate, even qualitatively, the possi-
ble biochemical and ecological consequences of these measures to both the Caspian
~ Sea itself and the entire route ~of water diversion (a large canal wuuld carry sea _
water over Krasnodarskiy Kray and Rostovskaya Oblast). It would take a long time
to study and evaluate these consequences; this alone would preclude diversion of
Black Sea waters as a priority measure. We should also consider that diversion of
Black Sea water into the Caspian dfles not solve the problems that have arisen due
to the limited water resources of the Volga and the impossibility of supporting
the long-range water management balance of the river with the help of Volga flow. _
However, considering the possibility that this would reduce the amount of str~am-
flow withdrawn from water bodies in the north and northwest and the limits of what
they can offer, in the opinion of some specialists we need to study the problem of
fliverting Black Sea waters as ane of the measures to be implemented.in the remote
future.
Management of the sea with the purpose of raising its biological productivity ~
should entail aupplying watei~ in*o it in those quantities and that flow rate which
would produce the greatest impact. In application to the Caspian Sea, this means:
insuring the conditions for intensive spawning in the Volga delta in the face of
a lower (in comparison with natural conditions) high-water flow (for example with
the help of a water divider);
increasing the water content of the Ural River and the eastern channels of the
Volga delta to promote better freshening of the northern Caspian and its satura-
tion with biogenic streamflow (supplying of biogenic streamflow into zones in
which photosynthesis proceeds most intensively, and where the conditions for the
feed base's existence are the most favorable); _
maintaining the sea at sufficiently high levels insuring persiatence of relatively -
favorable conditions for entry of Volga flow into the shallows of the central and
eastern parts of the northern Caspian.
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!
;
Just diversion of water into the Volga alone would solve an entire complex of
i problems: eliminating the deficit in ~he water management balance of the river
basin in the future (with consideration for diversions of water into the Asov basin).
i maintaining the level of the Caspian Sea, and preserving the biogenic streamflow
i and low salinity of the northern Caspian.
Ij The suggested ways for replenishing the water resources of the Volga (10, 11) can
! be divided into two groups: tapping the waters of the north and northwest slopes
of the European USSR; diverting water from the Ob', over the Urals or around
them on the north.
According to present ideas the variants in the second group are unfeasible. They
require water to be lifted to a greater total height, larger volumes of construction,
a much longer construction time, and significantly greater capital investments.
, Finally, notions of the supposed possibility for withdrawing large amounts of water
from the Ob' as a ineans for increasing the water supply both in the southern part
of the European USSR and in Central Asia have turned out to be unfounded as well
' (9). It should be noted that even if the Ob' were able to provide enough water to
both of these regions, variants suggesting separate diversions of water into these
, zones are more feasible.
Thus in the foreseeable future the water resources of the southern part of the
~ European USSR should be replenished by tapping riv~rs in the north and northwest
of this same zone.
It would be technically possible to withdraw up to 120-140 km3 of water from local
' sources on the northern slope of the European USSR per year. However, in this case
' ~e flow at the mouths of the northern rivers would be about halved, while at
, the places of withdrawal it would decrease even more. Withdrawal of flow on
such a scale would require creation of huge reservoirs that would flood large amounts
I of land; this would be accompanied by major disturbances (and sometimes destruction)
~ of evolved ecosystems, and it could have a serious influence on the natural condi-
tions of the Arctic and contiguous territories (1, 7). According to tentative
estimates, about half of this withdrawal volume (60-70 km3/year) may be viewed as
the limit for the foreseeable future. The donor water sources would be the
Pechora, Sukhona, Northern Dvina, the rivers of the Karelian SSR, and lakes
Lacha, Vozha, and Onega. The amount of water that could realistically be diverted
into the Volga by the year 2000 would be 20 km3/year. Moreover the expense part of
the sea's water ledger could be reduced somewhat by isolating the eastern shallows
of the northern Caspian, from which 10 km3 of water evaporate each year.
It follows from the above discu~sion that between 1990 and 2000, we could raise
the impact of compensatory measures to 20-30 km3/year, with an average annual incre-
ment of S= 2-3 km3/year. Predictions of the level of the sea have been made in appli-
cation to this range of values for S? with a prediction period extending ug to
the year 2010. The calculation results are shown in Table 4.
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Table 4. Probability of Typical Levels of the Sea in the Presence of Compensatory
Measures _
� Bep0A7HOCTb, ~j~ -
- . ~1~ a-2 a-3
ron '
v.~0.51 a~1.0 I a.~1.5 I a~'.0 I a~0,b I a~1.0 a~1,5 I a~4,0
~ ( 3) Ha orMerKax xxnce -28,5 ~
' Z~ I~ I I~ I ~ I is ~ ~ I ~ I ~ ,
Ha OTMeTK3X HH?KC -29 ~Q .1~ .
~0 I l0 ( 25 I 55 I 8U I 24 I 0 I ~ I ~
Ha or~teTxax ~xce -29,5 ~
200 I 2 I 19 I~ I 5 I ~~8 I 13 I ~ I ~
Key:
1. Year 3. For levels below
2. Probability
Considering the requirements of keeping the average sea level at the -28.5 meter
mark, the rate of growth of water consumption could be increased by the end of the
century to a= 0.5 km3/year, assuming that the impact of compensatory measures would
be S= 2.Q km3/year. Assuming R= 3.0 km3/year, a could be raised to 0.6-0.7 km3/year.
If we agree to temporary worsening of the sea's hydrologic cycle at the turn of the
century (on the condition that the desirable sea level would be regained by the year
- 2010), the rate of growth of water consumption may be increased to a= 1.0 and 1.3-1.4
- km3/year correspondingly at B='l�0 and 3.0 km3/year.
The question as to whether or not it would be possible to divert water from the
Volga to the Don must be answered cn the basis of the results cited here, on the
condition that a accounts for the dimension of these diversions. Thus given a per-
missible value of a= 1.0 km3/year, the increment in annual water consumptioa woul~l
be 30 km3 in the year 2010, while if the Don were to subsidize the water balance
with 20 km3/year, total water consumption in the Caspian basin could be increased
by 10 km3/year.
The cost of the compensatory measures is estimated in the billions of rubles, in
view of which the i.mpact of their implementation should be guaranteed with a signi-
ficant probability. This means that the compensato~y measures must be oriented
not at the average climatic conditions of the preceding period, but at unfavorable
conditions. A frequency of 90 percent (a probability of 10 percent for lower levelsj
may be adopted as the criterion of an unfavorable situation.
On the other hand we would probably be excessively cautious in demanding a 90 per-
cent probability for the optimum le~el, which is adopted at the -28.5 meter mark.
Therefore we would have to rel ate this probability to a lower level--in unfavorable
one, but one that is acceptable for limited time intervals. In this case we could
adopt the -29.0 meter mark.
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We can see from Table 4 that given average levels at about the -28.5 m~ter mark,
levels b~low -29.0 meters would have a significantly greater probability than 10
percent (25 percent on the average); a 10 percent probability is equivalent to
L about the -29.5 meter mark, which, from what we can envision, would be impermis-
sible. The reason for this is that given added feeding into the sea through
systematically fu11 utilization of the capacity of the diversion chaanel, such
_ diversion could only influence the average sea level (18).
The level of the sea could be stabilized oniy with compensatory supply of water _
- into the sea, in which case the vo1~e of water fed into it every year taken in-
dividually would be specified on the basis of the actual sea level. This means,
- in particular, that the schedule of compensatory feeding of water into the sea
basin from outside sources would have to differ from the schedule of water with-
drawal from the basin.
Planning the diversions of water into the Caspian Sea basin, we would have to
foresee the possibility for optimtmn control of flow rate, with an eye on reducing
fluctuations in sea level caused by natural variability in the elements of the
water balance. The probability that the level of the sea would r~emain within a
certain range--that is, the average time during which the sea level would remain
~ at the required point--could be adopted as an indicator of the sea level's stabil-
ity. From a technical standpoint, stabilization of the level of the sea can be -
achieved by increasing the inflow of water at times of low sea level, and decreas-
ing inflow at times of high sea level.
- This task was completed in the first approximation in application to the Caspian
' Sea on the basis of the maximum stability criterion; the rules for determining
i
; volume of diversions depending on sea level were determined (7_S). It turned out _
that in addition to reducing a range of fluctuations in sea level over a period
of several years, we achieve a certain savings in the volumes of diverted stream- _
flow (a decrease in the amount of water transferred in periods of high sea level,
when the evaporative surface of tYie sea is large).*
However, because it would take some time to implement the measures asaociated with
diverting water into the Caspian basin, the transition to variable annual feeding
- into the sea would become important not right away, but only after the level of the
sea reaches an acceptable poin t; prior to this time, the carrying capacity of the
diverted ro ute would have to be utilized fully, as the sources of the diverted
water allow. Optimum control of such water diversions would become of practical
interest in the very first stages of extending tt:e problem to two water basins--
the Caspian and Azov seas.
Inasmuch as water can be diverted into the Azov basin only from the Vo:Lga, we -
encounter the problem of taking water from the rivers and lakes of the northern -
European USSR to concurrently increase the flow into the basins of both of these
seas--Caspian and Azov. Considering the optimum strategy of ~oint diversion, we
would have to take two circumstances into account: First, the inflow ir.to the _
Caspian and Azov seas is not synchronous, meaning that if the demand for water -
j *The latter is especially important to lakes used as water sources for the sea.
i
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alternates between the seas we could proba~ly consider a lower carrying capacity
for the diversion channel into the Volqa th~.n the total i~iaximum demand for water
of each of these seas; second, the inertia of the Sea of Azov is relatively low,
meaning that iL would have priority over short-term intervals; the greater inertia
oF the Caspian makes it easier to solve the probl.ems of providing water to the Volga
connected with fluctuations in the flow rate from the water sources, which do not
correlate significantly with the Volga's regimen.
,
Also of irmportant significance is the flow rai~e of the Ural River, which decreases
in low-water years to a few km3/year due to 5reater natural variability of streamflow.
- By increasing the guaranteed ~r~inimum streamf.low of the Ural (this figure would have
to be substantiated) , on one hand we could radically improve the natural spawning
grounds, and on the other hand we could reduce the salinity and raise the avail-
ability of food in areas of the northern Caspian contiguous with the mouth of the
' Ural (6) . The role of thi.~ river in reproducing the sea's fish school is great,
and s~mple land reclamation measures implemented within the limits of its lower
reach~s promise a significant Ympact. The water resources of the Ural would have
~ to be replenished in the very first stages of erection of the Volga-Ural Canal,
intended primarily to provide water to land situated between the Volga and the Ural.
It would be desirable to supply at least a small quantity of water to the Emba in
~ order to freshen the waters at its mouth.
Conclusions '
If we are to maintain the unique productivity of the Caspian Sea, avert the un-
favorable influence of the northern Caspian's dessication upon the climate, and ~
reduce the harm done by a decline in sea level to a number of sectors of the
national economy, these plans for diverting water into the Volga from rivers
_ and lakes of the northern European USSR would have to be tied in with the pace of
development of irrigation.
- Maic~taining the level of the Caspian Sea by diverting Black Sea waters into it ;
would not create favorable cc~ndi_tions for the fish school, and it would elicit a '
_ number of ecological appreliensions. 7.'his variant of the compensatory measures ~
would not be of interest in the foreseeable future. ~
We need to accelerate research on the idea of isolating the unproductive eastern I
i
- ~~:allows of th~ northern Caspian. It would be unsuitable to stabilize the level
of the entire northern Caspian by separating it from the rest of the water ba~;i.r_. ;
Increasizg the water content of the Ural River by diverting relatively small vol-
umes of water t.:o ~t from the Volga would have a noticeable positive influence in i
fresheri.ng the northern Caspian and providing biogenic substances to it. ~
The water divider that has been built at the apex of the delta, which permits us '
to control the distribution of streamflow between channels of the Volga delta, and
conse quently to positively influence the spawning grounds in the delta itself and
to freshen the northern Caspian, should be placed into operation immediately, and ;
special field observations over the regimen of the delta and the coastal waters
should be organized. This research would produce raw data in behalf of, first, ~
- improvements in t?~e ru ~es of using the water divider, and second, the system of
land reclamation measures to be applied to the delta in the case where its regimen
is controlled.
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Apparently it is impossi.ble to predict all of the negative consequences of dis-
turbing--destroying in this case--such large ecosyst?m~ as the Caspian: We can
assert a p2'yio2'i that it would be more expensive to restore these systems than to
implement preventive measures as a means to maintain ~~:i:e required conditions. On
the other hand withdrawal of water from diversion sourc~s would disturb the water
regimen of ~he latter, which may in turn change the natural co:~ditions with conse-
quences that cannot always be predicted. Th~refore wnen developing measures for
territorial redistribution of streamflow,we should devote the most serious atten-
tion to this aspect of the problem. We must obviously ccnsole ourselves to some
unfavorak,le consequences that may arise in the zones of streamflow withdrawal, if
as a result we achieve a much more significaz~t national economic and ecoloqical
impact.
The fol].owing~ can be treated as the basic directions of scientific research on
the problem of the Caspian Sea:
1) making predictions of the water-~salt regimen of the sea and of channel deforma-
tions that would occur at the mouths of rivers in response to a decline in sea level;
- 2) making predictions of possi.ble transformations in the Caspian' s ecosystems in
response to the expected changes in the water-salt regimen and dessication of the
shallow areas of the water basin as a result of the decline in water level;
, 3) evaluating possible changes in the region's climatic conditions due to dessica-
tion of the northern Caspian in response to a decline in sea level;
4) determining the grounds for the composition and scale of compensatory measures
to correct for growth in watzr consumption in the sea basin, on the basis of pre-
dictions of change in the sea's regimen, the operation of water ecosystems, and
the socioeconomic aspects of the problem; 5) developing the strategy for optimum
control of the sea's regimen, with regard to possible diversion of water into the
Azov basin, and fluctuations in the water content of sources that are to provi6e
additional water to the Caspian.
Bibliography
1. Antonov, V. S., "2'he Problem of Irreversible Withdrawal of Part of the Flow
~ of Northern Rivers," TR. AANII, Vol 323, 1976.
- 2. Apollov, B. A., "Fluctuations in the Level of the Caspian Se a," TR. IO AN SSSR,
Vol XV, 1956.
3. Asarin, A. Ye., "Use of Artificial Series of Inflow and Evaporation to
Calculate Anticipated Levels of Inland Water Basins," GIDROTEIQ3NICHESKOYE
STROITEL'STVO, No 8, 1972.
4. Bagrov, N. A., "Fluctuations in the Level of Lakes Without Outfl.ows,"
METEOROL. I GIDROLOGIYA, No 6, 1963.
5. Baranov, V. A., Bochkov, N. M., and Myasnikova, Ye. V., "Basic Characteristics
of a Prediction of Changes in Water Quality in the Basins of the Volga River
- and the Aral Sea in Response to Diversion of Part of the Flow of
Northern and Siberian Rivers Into Them," in "Tr. IV Vses. gidrologichesk.
s"yezda" [Proceedings of the Fourth All-Union Hydrological Congress], Vol 9,
Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976- 66
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6. "Biologicheskaya produktivnost' Kaspiyskogo morya" [Biological Productivity
of the Caspian Sea], Moscow, Izd-vo Nauka, 1974.
7. Brattsev, A. P., Vetoshkina, N. N., and Podoplelov, V. P., "Effect of Diversion
of the Flow of the Pechora River Into the Volga River Basin Upon the -
Natural Conditions and National Economy of the Komi ASSR," in "Seriya nauchi.
dokl. Komi filiala AN SSSR" [Series of Scientific Reports of the Komi Branch
~ of the USS R Academy of Sciences], Issue 26, 1976.
8. Budyko, M. I., and Yudin, M. I., "Fluctuations in the Level of Lakes Without
Out~lows," N~TEOROL. I GIDROLOGIYA, No 8, 1960.
9. Vendrov, S. L., "The Interests of the West Siberian Plain and Providing Water
to the Central Asian Republics and the Water-Poor Oblasts of Kazakhstan," in
"Vliyaniye mezhbasseynovogo peraraspredeleniya rechnogo stoka na prirodnyye
usloviya Yevropeyskoy territorii i Sredinnoqo regiona S5SR" [Effect of Inter-
basin Redistribution of River Discharge on the Natural Conditions of the
European Territory and Central Region of the USSR], Moscow, Izd-vo IVP AN SSSR,
_ 1975.
10. Voropayev, G. V., "'The Country's Unified Water Management System," VODNYYE
~
~ RESURSY, 1do 6, 1976.
11. Dunin-Barkovskiy, L. V., and Moi~eyev, N. N., "A System of Models Simulating
Redistribution of River Discharge in the USSR," VODNYYE RES URSY, No 3, 1976.
12. Kalinin, G. P., "Problemy global'noy gidrologii" [Problems of Global Hydrology],
Leningrad, GIDROMETEOIZDAT, 1968.
13. Kritskiy, S. N., and Menkel', M. F., "Fluctuations in the Level of Inland b
Water Basins," in "Tr. Gidroproyekta" [Works of the All-Union Planning, Surveying,
and Scientif ic Research Institute imeni S. Ya. Zhuk], Collection 12, 1964.
14. ?critskiy, S. N., Korenistov, D. V., and Ratkovich, D. Ya., "Fluctuations in
the Level of tne Caspian Sea, Moscow, Izd-vo Nauka, 1976.
15. Markish, M. S., Optimum Control of the Level of a Water Basin Without Outflows
(With the Example of the Caspian Sea)," VODNYYE RESURSY, Nu 5, 1977.
- 16. Marti, Yu. Yu., and Ratkovich, D. Ya., "Water Management Problems of the
A zov and Caspian Seas," VODNYYE RESURSY, No 3, 1976. -
17. Privadl'skiy, V. Ye., "Linear Extrapolation of Sea Level Fluctuations on the
Basis of a Parametric Model," IZV. AN SSSR. SER. FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA,
Vol 9, No 9, 1973.
18. Ratkovich, D. Ya., Zhdanova, I. S., and Prival'skiy, V. Ye., "The Problem of -
Fluctuations in the Level of the Caspiar. Sea," VODNYYE RE5URSY, No 3, 1973.
~ 19. Ratkovich, D. Ya., "Control of the Fluctuations in the Level of the~Caspian
~ No 2 1975.
Sea With the Assistance of an Isolating Dike," VODNYYE RESURSY, .
67 ~
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20. Ratkovich, D. 1'a., "Mnogoletniye kolebaniya rechnogo stoka" [Perennial Fluctua-
tions in River Discharge] , Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
21. "Present and Future Water and Salt Balance of Southern Seas of the USSR,"
in"Tr. GOIN" [Works of the State Institute of Oceanography], Issue 108, 1972.
22. Shiklomanov, I. A., "Gidrologicheskiye aspekty problemy Kaspiyskogo morya"
[Hydrological Aspects of the Problem of the Caspian Sea] , Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1976. -
COPYRIGHT: I~datel'stvo "Nauka", "Vodnyye resursy", 1980
11004
- CSO: 1824/ 181
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UDC 627.47:556.16
P. SYSTEMS APPROACH TO ANALYZING INTERBASIN DIVERSION OF WATER FLOW (BASED ON THE
EXAMPLE OF DIVERTING PART OF THE DISCHARGE OF THE USSR'S IJORTfIERN RIVERS INTO THE
VOLGA)
Moscow VODNYYE RESURSY in Russian No l, 1981 pp 5-22
[Article by A. S. Berezner, N. N. Moiseyev, F. I. Yereshko, and A. V. Lotov]
[Text] Satisfying industry's and agriculture's growing demand for water is a
typical problem of many of the world's countries. A lack af available water re-
sources is evident in both individual countries and some large regions in general.
An acceptable solution to the problem of sensibly using limited resources can be
found only on the basis of a systems approach (4), through systematic inspection of
a significan~ number of alternatives.
Let us examine the machinery of systems analysis with the example of developing a
major water management plan for supplying water to the southeastern part of the
European USSR by diverting part of the discharge of the country's northern rivers
_ into the Volqa basin.
Diversion of part of the discharge of northern rivers in the European USSR into the
Volg~ is a typical example of a complex problem: Its analysis requires considera-
tion of a large ntunber of closely interrelated technical, social, economic, eco-
logical, an~ other issues. To solve this problem, we would essentially have to con-
currently examine the associated problems of developing productive forces, ~rotecting
the environtnent, and raising the population's standard of living, such that we
would be dealing co a certain extent with a general program for development of the
regions affected by diversion.
In this article, taking a systems approach to planning will mean comprehensively
analyzing the complex problem under study, with the assistanct of both informal and
formalized methods of analysis, ~ombining the merits of a strict computer-assisted
study based on mathematical models, and the knowledge of experts.
Systems analysis of any problem entails three basic parts (4): a) analysis of the
end goals that must be achieved thr~ugh solution of the problem under examination;
b) development of a system of indicators and, on their basis, criteria for evaluating
the possible alternatives; c) selection of the most appropriate variant of achieving
the posed goals (operations analysis). The key issue in all of these stages is
cooperation between the researchers performing the formal analysis and the experts
and practical planners who pose the concrete tasks and make the final decision to
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adopt one variant or another. One extremely important fact should be noted: Inas-
much as no system of models can embrace the entire problem as a whole, the need
arises for isolating a particular problem out of the general situation. The re-
searcher can make it easier to break the general situation down, but it is the
expert planner who defines the content of this task. He directs the writing of
the scenarios--that is, the possible alternatives for development of national
economic sectors and natural systems, he performs the initial ra.nking of these
alternatives, and he provides the necessary information for the models being
developed. Next he analyzes the results of the calculations and, relying on his
own experience, he evaluates their significance to planning. The experience of
the expert is formed through his education--that is, on the basis of planning
models he had assimilated a eertain number of years ago, on the basis of the con-
, crete tasks which he had formerly completed successfully or unsuccessfully, and on the
basis of public opinion. These characteristics, which do not yield to formal
definition, determine the style of his thinking and the procedures he uses to
eliminate certain variants.
~ Note that every complex project has its own history of development, and by the
moment a single system of mathematical models is created, it is complicated by a
number of particular tnodels, the relationships b,etween which are occasionally in-
formal.
Such a complex situation will become eviden~ in the subsequent presentation.
Relying upon the methods of system analysis, the researchers and the experts go on
next to spell out a single system of viewpoints and approaches leading to a formally
clear procedure for analyzing the planning variants on the basis of a si.mulation
system, which is now being developed in the form of a computerized automatic
planning system. At the same time this plan makes use of evaluations and particu-
lar models reflecting viewpoints which are presently in existence in planning
practice and which came into being previous to the simulation system. Before we
arrive at formal assessments of the consistency or all models, their joint inte r-
pretation would be an informal act of creativity of the experts.
A water supply syst.em is not the end goal of society's development, and therefo re
were we to follow the methodology of systems analysis, in the first stage of
our research we would need to evaluate the place of water management within the
overall system of goals and tasks facing the society.
2"he analysis of goals related to the task of interest to us--sensible water use- -
begins with drawing up the corresponding graph of goals and tasks (Diagram 1), in
which the system of goals is represented in the form of a hierarchical structure
that is, it is broken down into a finite number of levels, where achievement of
one of the goals (tasks) of any one level must be preceded by achievement of an
associated goal (task) at a lower level (5). Z'hus a goal (task) at any one leve 1,
except at the highest and lowest, must on one hand be achieved before goals of a
higher level can be, and on the other hand it itself can be achieved only on the
condition that tasks associated with it at a lower level are completed. Goals at
the highest (zero)' level are the end qoals, and the tasks at the lowest level can
be complete d with the available resources.
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~
~
~ S � sHHeaoe4rroccotlodKdu ~ ~ ~
R-a+ ~�s xeaoduoa a ao.cxatt~xox n. ^
~ ~ ~ ~ xAHvodert~(itxsari axHalm~CuottaH _ ~ ~ N
N als ~d v
. ~ � ~ s V ~
rt
3
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w
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S (O S
71
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Key:
1. Development of society 13. Preservation of ~ique ecosystems
2. Development of the material- in the Caspian and Azov seas
technical base 14. Improvement of living and working
3. Advancement of the material conditions
and cultural standard of 15. Enhancement of stability in relation
living of the laborers to military pressure
4. Maintenance of the country's 16. Prevention of international con-
security flicts in nature exploitation
5. Promotion of peace and develop- 17. Supply of water resources
ment of ir..ternational coopera- 18. Improvement of caater consumption
tion and water distribution technology
6. Development of industry and 19. Waste treatment, introduction of
municip~.l management recycling systems and waterless
7. Development of public services production processes
8. Development of agricalture 20. Regulation of di~charge by reservoirs
9. DP~~elopment of fisheries 21. Use and replenishment of underground
10. Development of power engineering water
11. Development of transportation 22. Diversion
12. Preservation and improvement 23. Desalinization of runoff, ground
of natural conditions and water, and sea water
recreation resourc2s 24. 5timulation of precipitation
The first level in this system consists of tasks that must be completed if society
is to develop successfully as a whole. The second level singles out not all goals
(tasks) ~hat must be achieved in order to support the goals of the first level, but
only those which are associated with the task of sensible water use.
The third and fourth levels contain only those tasks which are directly associated
with supporting water consumption. Thus we arrived at a graph of goals and tasks,
ending with the level of tasks associated with providing water resources; in this
case diversion of river discharge is isolated in the lowest level as one of the means
of corc~ leting this task. Owing to this we can qualitatively describe the requirements
imposed on the water supply system, both today and in the future.
Next we would need to examine the problem of choosing a sufficiently detailed variant
of the socioeconomic development of the country as a whole, one accounting for the
need for natural resources, water in particular, and the possibilities of obtaining
them. Then the issue of sensible diversion of a part of the river discharge would
be resolved in the course of ch~osing the most appropriate variant for the country's
development. Unfortunately, this task cannot be completed in its full volume because
this would require concurrent examination of too manY Principal and secondary
factors having a bearing on the decision made. Therefore in present practice, to
solve the particular problems the experts resort to informal decomposition of the
overall graph,�and on their own recognizance they isolate a rather narrow class of
issues that are most closely associated among one another. In this case of analyzing
diversion of part of the discharge of northern rivers into the Volga basin, the de-
composition proce&ure affected mainly the geographical boundaries of the zone that
would be influenced by such diversion. The following boundaries may be adopted for
the region on the basis of the research of previous years (3):
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on the west--the western border of the USSR from Norway to the Gulf of Finland;
then the watershed between the basins of the Neva and the Narthern Dvina and further
along the watershed be~ween the basins of the Volga and Don and the Dnepr basin,
down to the Sea of Azov;
on the south--the Main Caucasian Range (the eastern Caucasus is treated as part of
the water balance of the Caspian 5ea, but in the foreseeable future, water from
northern rivers will not be fed directly into this region via the Volga);
on the east--the boundary between Europe and Asia, extending along the Ural Range
and, south of the range, along the Ural River to the Caspian Sea.
Thus from here on in we will be discussing the provision of water not to the entire
country but only to the region isolated above. When we isolate this region, and thus
reduce the geographical dimensions of thp territory under consideration, we raise
fundamental questions associated with the relationship between this region and the
country as a whole. To answer these questions, we note that the goals indicated in
Diagram 1 are achieved in the course of activity of individual sectors (industry,
- public services, agriculture, power engineering, fisheries, water management, an~
so on). Therefore by breaking the territory down we concurrently isolate certain
parts of these sectors, territorially located within the boundaries of this region;
the relationship between the regional economy and the entire national economy must
be spelled out in terms and concepts used to describe the funetion of sectors.
Examining sectors as elements of the economy, we can base their description on a
set of factors characterizing production in such a way that part of the factors would
predetermine the input of products into the sector, and part would determine the
output of products from the sector. The associations existing between the different
character.istics of these factors make up economic models at the descriptive level,
and mathematical models of the function of sectors at the formal level.
In our case the initial factors are: different types of land, water, and labor
resources, the production equipment of the sectors, construction material~, construc-
tion equipment, fuel, energy, chemical fertilizers, agricultural machinery, capital
investments, operational expenses, and so on. The output factors are represented
by the products of the corresponding sectors: in agriculture, for example, grain,
vegetables, meat, milk, etc.; in fisheries--the volume of marine, migratory, and
semimigratory fish caught, the volume of roe produced; in power engineering--energy
production and power supply; in transportation--shipment volumes, and so on. The
characteristics of these factors may take the form of both resource limitations and
indicators for which improvement would be desirable.
Note that all of the input characteristics of the sectors are exogenous in re;lation
- to the regional complex under examination here. Therefore, first, the associations
existing between individual sectors in this region manifest themselves only at the
level of resource limitations affecting input parameters and, second, the magnitudes
of the resource limitations and indicators gF~nerated by the input parameters define
the load imposed upon the economy by the region. At the same time the limitations
and indicators generated on the basis of the output parameters define the load imposed
upon the region (the demand on the region) on the part of the economy.
By analyzing the input factors and goals (Diagram 1), we can trace formation of
limitiiig factors and indicators at the expert level.
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Land is mainly a limiting factor associated with redistribution of tilled land
between diffe~ent types of farming (dry or irrigated). The indicators may reflect
the desire to reduce land flooding accompanying the erection of dams.
Labor resources appear as a limiting factor in all sectors under examination.
Water resources may be utilized in three ways: a) irrecoverable water consumption,
where as a result of the production cycle water is evaporated, or it is included
in the end product exported from the region; b) recoverable water consumption, where
water is returned back to the river, though in contaminatzd form and, as a rule, in a
reduced quantity; c) water use not associated with consumption of water, where
presence of a certain amount of water is necessary to the activity of the water user.
Research conducted previousLy on development of the country's water economy (3) showed
that in the foreseeable future all forms of water supply (industrial, municipal, agri-
cultural) will not exceed 20 percent of the total increment of irrecoverable use of
water resources. The water loss is even smaller (1 percent) in pond fish culture.
About 80 percent of the future growth of irrecoverable withdrawals will be concerned
with development of irrigated agriculture. Thermal powerengineering holds first place
in discharge of recoverable water; however, this sector subjects the dumped water
mainly to"thermal pollution", which is relatively less dangerous to the environment,
given the scale of development of this sector predicted by experts. Second in volume
and first in degree of contamination are the recoverable water discharges of industry
and municipal management, and third place is occupied by agriculture (drainage from
feedlots, surface runoff and percolating water from irrigated land). Finally, the
principal sectors not con~uming water irreversibly and not requiring large quantities
for dilution purposes include fisheries, hydro2lectric power, water transportation
and, to a lesser degree, agriculture (flooding of land on the Va1go-Akhtubinskaya
floodplain). Judging from the size af irrecoverable water consumption by industry
and municipal manaqement, the influence of these sectors upon future water supply
would be generally insignificant. As far as the large volume of recoverable water
from industry is concerned, this factor will not have decisive significance in the _
future, inasmuch as no plans for new enterprises are being or will be approved unless
they foresee a high degree of waste water treatment; all existing enterprises, cities,
and towns, meanwhile, will have to finish construction of treatment plants not later
than 1985 (as required by decrees published in 1976-1977 by the CPSU Central Committee
and the USSR Council of Ministers on measures to protect the waters:of the Black,
- Azov, Caspian, and Baltic sea $asins). In this connection we can examine the variants
for development of industry, municipal management, and services separately from the
variants of the system for water use within the Volga basin and the basins of adjacent
-~ivPrs, in which case the demand of these sectors for water resources will be treated
as a limiting factor. The dolume of water resources and the water supply schedule
participate in the formation of limiting factors in other sectors as well, and they
are rarely used as indicators, mainly in regard to auxiliary tasks.
Use of construction equipment, construction materials, equipment, fuel, energy,
chemical fertilizers, and agricultural machinery is typified as a rule by outlays
nXPY~~:~PU in monetary terms, which is what predetermines the set of indicators employed.
Some of. t.hese factors may participate in the formation of limiting factors. We should
- emphasize that outlays in both cost terms and natural terms must be subdivided into
- outlays occurring in the course of construction and current outlays.
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The goal "Preservation and improvement of natural conditions and r~creation xesources"
imposes a limitation of the following sort on the water supply schedule: The selected
variants of water use and diversion must not significantly worsen the natural condi-
tions in the regions where discharge is withdrawn, and concurrently the ecological
conditions of the Azov and Caspian seas must show improvement. Concurrently this
_ goal serves as the source of one of the indicators of the quality of the selected
variants, from the standpoint of their influence upon both the zone of discharge
withdrawal and transportation, and the zone in which the diverted water is distributed.
An analysis of,this influence is represented in Diagram 2.
The goal "Improvement of living and working conditions" requires irrecoverable use
of water, and maintenance of minimum residual discharge in rivers (releases of water
for sanitary purposes). -
The goals "Development of industry" and "Development of public services" require
irrecoverable use of water, and releases of water to clean out water channels.
The goals "Dev~lopment of fisheries" and "Development of transportation" set limits
on releases of water to support normal reproduction and development of the fish
school, and r.avigation.
The goals "Enhancement of stability in relation to possible military pressure" and
"Prevention of international conflicts in nature exploitation" impose limitations
on the possible variants for development of wate r supply.
All of the limitations mentioned above are determined by expert assessment.
The goal "Development of agriculture" predetermines the outlays on the creation of
certain products and their assortment, and limitations on how much can be produced
and on outlays associated with input factors.
The goal "Development of power engineering" prede termines the figures for total and
peak energy production.
When we assign particular values to the limitat ions and choose the system of indica-
tors, we do not as a rule set concrete values for the indicators, inasmuch as a
regional complex offers a freedom of choice in selecting the distribution of input
factors among sectors and among inilividual methods of production within the sectors
(this pertains mainly to agriculture and power engineering). Therefore we need to
define our procedure for selecting the parameters to be controlled more specifically.
Together with the informal: procedure for creating the system of indicators and
limiting factors, this procedure forms the scenario for development of the regional
complex, and in the final analysis it predetermines the concrete approach to utilizing
the region's water resources. The main objective of automating planning is to
generate numerous alternatives for achieving the set goals and evaluating these
alternatives within a time period acceptable to the experts. This could be done
only by creatirg a mathematical description of the function of sectors and of the
principal physical processes (2), running the system of models in a computer, and
organizing the procedures for evaluating the system of indicators within the framework
of this set of scenarios.
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Diagram 2. Effect of Diversion of the Discharge of Northern Rivers Upon Natural-
Economic Complexes
~1) Il~epe6pocxa KacTH croxa
' cesepewx pex e 6acceNy Bonrx
~
~2~ BANRHNe H2 RpHPOAyO-X03ANCTBCHH61}~
KOMlIAeBC B 30HE OT'b2M8 CTOK2
I I
iI011~H( Te116H0e I -I orp~t4a'renbHOe I
I I
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K x m ~s a ~
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~ ~ ` ~ v a~ e
x r ~ S ~ ~S o ~ ~ ?~e ~ ~
a C K F q ~a ~ x~, W ~a
x ~ ~ x o ~ �o s ~t
x Ss y =a t-v
. ~ O = A Yv ~ 6=/ J S C=! ~ ~ ~61 ~ ~ ~
e[ S O ~ O m = ~dG C S u~ qZY S y
~ p, ~ ~ 4 G. m ri = C O m ~ x p~ 4
a~i y ~ u~ C CY 2~z
. $ ~ a, z
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a a ~ v d s
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p, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C O ~ ~ ~Gp.
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i (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10} (11 (12 (13 (T4) _
I ~ ~
- a
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y 6C ~ r ~ y m Q K
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O
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y O ca
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~ 202 (21 (22 (23 (24)
~
76 ~
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Diagram 2 (continued) ,
~1~ Ilepe6pocxa yacn+ cTOxa
ceeepx~x pex e 6acce~x Bw?rst
" ~
BI(NAHr~e 5~ npxpoAHO-~C03A~lCTBQHI:hI}! I{OMJIACKC
B 30Ht Tp2HCilOpTN~1088HNA CTOK8 '
I I '
IIOlION(11~~A6H08 I I 01'F)HI(8TtJ1bH0~ I _
� I
K
! ~ ~ ~ .
~ ,z F q b K Lq ~ V~
aXi s m z ~ai x5~~ 0
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5 ~
~ fC Ot 4 Y T
i~t a~i m 7! p, ~y ~ p= ~q ~ y F~- ~ C
~a ~ ~p CO O IC l~l S OJ O~ ~ 0. O O ~ O
`t K 3 a~ s.~ ~ x K o
xY ~ K x( I
j _ x a r�
t ~m aC? e
zo. xx x~ u. 'o a~ a?b>+ =m xa a~s
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ym p m z ~C e9i=S ~v. ?C C W K6
T G~ S ~ ~ S W YlS ~ a~K
S~ u m~ v ~ s ~s~ ~m z~
~ 4 ~ S x~q ~ ~ ~ O ~ Ox51 ~ T ~ C~7 ~
a=i q S F ~ ~ 16!
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- (26) (27) (28) (29) (30j (31~ (32) ' 33 34 35
.I
. I
.s ~ -
x
Y Q~ O
= 7 O ~ ~ * CL O
S ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ C LL
s ?e
o. ~ ~ ~ Y ~ ~ II, ~e
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(36) (37) (38) (39) . 40) (41) (42)
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Diagram 2 (continued)
(1)
' Ilepe6pocxa qacrn craxa
- ceBepx~ac.pex e 6acceiia Bonrx '
' ~
. Bri~s~xe sa npxpo,~xo-zosx~3crsex~D~
xoemnexc s 3oxe pacupeAeneaxa croxa �
(43)
~ (
I i10A0NiHTGR6HOC ~4~07pH1(2TP.~IbHOC I `
I
I ~ ~ a =
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� a. ~
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44) (45) ~(46~ 47 48 49 5
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~
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53) (54) (~5) (56) (57) (58) (59) '(60) (61)
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, K~~Y:
1. Diversion of part of the discharge of northern rivers into the Volga basin
2. ~ffect upon the natural-economic complex i.n the zon.e of discharge withdrawal :
3. Positive
4. Negative
5. Initial development of remote uninhabited regions
6. Creation of shipping routes
. 7. Creation of hyc3roelectric power plants h~~draulic engineering facilities
along the diversion route
_ 8. Shorter periods of gras sland flooding
9. SalC of wood from logging
10. Flooding of forests, lost possibilities for obtaining wood, wild animals,
berries, mushrooms
11. Flooding and partial submersiDn of agricultural land
12. Flooding and partial submersion of ~~pulation centers and roads
13. Flooding of mineral deposits and architectural landmarks
14. Creation of moister mic roclimate near diversion routes, and lengthening of
the period of ice cover ~n rivers .
15. Increas s of consumption of water for sanitation purp~ses to 95 percent of
- requirement in the month of most-intense water use
16. L~ngthening ofthe navigation season at river mouths and in adjacent sea
areas due to less ice -
17. Creation of new recreational possibxiities at reservoirs
18. Cessation of the discharge of turbid waters from the Volga-Baltic Canal
in to Lake Onega
- 19. Faster construction of treatment plants on donor rivers in connection with
diversion
20. Creation of obstacles ~cross spawning routes, and reduction of biogenic dis-
charge for fish _
21. Lower frequency of grassland flooding, and of the flushing of floodplains
~ and oxbow lakes
22. Increased dredging operations to support shipping below diversion gates
~ 23. Distrac tion of manpower from other sectors during the time of construction
24. A rise in the water table in certain areas near the diversion route
25. Eff.ect on the natural-economic complex in the discharge transportation zone
2~. Higher low-water flow of river~ included in the diversion route
27. Improved shipping conditiuns on these rivers
28. Higher output and guaranteed capacity of hydroelectric power plants on the
' VKK [Volga-Kama Cascade] -
29. Crea~ion of new shipping routas
- 30. Development of uninhabited regions
31. Condemnation and flooding of land along diversion routes i
32. Partial submerging and flooding of land in the Volga valley from Rybinskoye
to Gor' kovskoye reservoir due to higher flow rate
33. Discharge of turbid waters from the Volga-Baltic Canal into Rybinskoye
- reservoir
34. Higher water table in certain areas near the diversion route
35. Slower fish development in Volga reservoirs due to admission of colder waters
36. Compensation of thermal pollution k~y dei:rease in water temperature
37. Slowdown of eutrophication due to dccrease in water temperature
38. Creation of new recreation possibilities along diversion route
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Key (continued)
39. Higher flushing action in existing reservoirs
40. Distraction of manpower from ~,mployment in Nonchernozem zones
41. Lower fish productivity of Volga reservoirs due to higher flow rate
42. '.t'he risk of foreign flora and fauna entering the Volga
43. Effect on natural-economic complex in the discharge distribution zone
44. Maintenance of the Caspian Sea's fish productivity, and its increase
45. Recovery af Azov fish productivity
46. Development of irrigation insuring guaranteed harvests of feed, vegetables,
forage grain
47. Elimination of mass slaughters of farm animals tollowing droughts
48. Higher output and guaranteed capacity of hydroelectric power plants on
the VKK
49. Alienation of land to be used for irrigation canals
50. Reduced fish catches in reservoirs due to higher flow rate
_ 51. Discharge of contaminated drain water from irrigation systems
52. Lower precipitation in the region due to a decline in the ice dolume of
northern seas
53. Maintenance and subsequent improvement of the shipping situation of the
Volga
_ 54. No need for rebuilding ports due to a decrease in the Caspian's level
55. Conditions for passage of vessels from the Volga to the ~aspian are not
' worsened
- ~o. No threat of the dispersal of salts due to desiccation of the Caspian
57. Preservation of recreational opportunities on the Caspian coast
58. No complications in international relations resulting from increasing
shallowness of the Caspian
59. Preservation of underground water intakes and water diversion systems
along the Caspian coast
60. Higher precipitation in the region due to development of irrigation
61. Improved sanitary conditions of the Volga due to greater discharge and
lower water temperature
There are now four basic methods for analyzing mathematical models containing con-
~ trollable variables: 1) the analytical approach, which permits us to analyze
certain properties of models, for example balanced growth, major properties, and
so on; 2) the optimization approach, which involves stating a single indicator and
f_inding a control approach in response to which this indicator would assume its
' maximum value; 3) the multiple-criterion approach, where we create a set of all
nondominant or possible values for the system ~.t indicators; 4) the simulation
approach in which we describe different variants of (write scenarios for) external
influences upon the system under analysis, and evaluate the results of its operatior~.
Without a doubt all four methods can and must be useci when a system under investiga-
tion is analyzed with the help of computer r.~odeling. However, only simulation
analysis, which involves performing controlled experiments with mathematical models
describing the system under investigation, affords a possibility for studying ade-
quate mathematical models of complex systems, models that come close to *he real
- situation. Thus a man-machine system must be based on adequate models that yield
�~o simulaticn analysis. Thus the entire system is called a simula*~on system.
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To create a simulation system, we would need to spend rather large sums and invest
a large amount ot time; this is why one cannot be c~eated to solve just a single
important problem, no matter how important it is--the assets invested into the system
would pay f~r themselves only if the simulation system becomes an implement of
- constant and diversified analys is of the object under investigation.
~
- Construction of a simulation system ~ursues a ntiunber of goals:
associating and comparing proce sses differing in nature--economic, biological,
hydrodynamic, and so on, and approaching their analysis from a single point of view;
unifying the information, formulating scientifically grounded requirements on it,
and cross-checking its accuracy;
unifying formal and informal me thods of analysis, planning, and decision making.
A simulation system is a multi 1 evel system of models, described to different degrees
of detail and supplied with software allowing its use by a planning specialist with
- a minimum background in mathematics. It is the principal tool of planning, and
it predetennines the necessary information. In particular, a simulation system can
be used to evaluate the quality of certain information, or the influence of uncertainty
upon the values of the criteri a employed, and so on. Here are the basic components
of a siMUlation system:
a bank of modules, each of which represents part of the object under investigation
in the form of a calculation proqram written in a certain algorith:~aic language;
- a data bank supplied with a developed data retrieval system;
a system allowing for communication between man and computer;
a set of auxiliary simplified models that could support analysis based on optimiza-
- tion methods;
- a set of programs for solving multiple-criterion problems;
a set of integrating and disintegrating programs.
A system of mathematical model s adequately describing the object under investigation
contains hundreds of control i nstructions and thousands of parameters. Inasmuch as
a simulation experiment requires maintenance of control at each moment in time, the
researcher may find himself unable to perform a sufficiently sensible experiment
without first analyzing the sy stem on the basis of simplified models, using the
methods of optimization and multiple-criterion analysis.
Let us now go on to a description of alternative elements in scenarios written
on the basis of the functional criteriona Combinations of alternatives from
different groups form part of the scenario for defining the parameters to be con-
trolled, the input factors, and geographic boundaries.
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' The first group of alternatives is associated with possible change in the boundaries
of the region due to addition of certain contigucss river basins to the zone under
examination. Such basins may include:
donor basins--Northern Dvina, Ob';
_ recipient basins--Dnepr, Kura, Ural, Tobol. ~
A basin-wide plan has been written for utilizing and conserving the water resources
of tYie Northern Dvina. It states that only a very small quantity of water could
be diverted from this river into the Volga basin, and even so, only in the distant
future. Therefore it would be unsuitable to include this basin in the region under
examination; small possible transfers of water may be accounted for in the revenue
part of the region's water balance.
Only the western (right-bank) part of the Ural basin is included in the region under
examination, inasmuch as the waters of the Volga (and, through it, the waters of
northern rivers) may be diverted into this part of the basin and into the land area
between the Volga and the Ural via the Kuybyshevskiy canal and the "Volga-Ural"
system. The high cost indicators of diverting water just to the western part of
the Ural basin alor?e apparently preclude the possi.bility for supplying Volg~ ;aater
to the basin's left bank. Therefore it would apparently be unsuitable to include
- the zone east of the Ural channel in the region of use of waters from the northern
rivers.
In the Tobol basin, the upper reaches of the left-bank tributaries--Iset', Miass,
and others, c~:here the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk industrial centers are located,
suffer a water deficit. Diversion of water into this zone from the Volga basin
would be possible only in negligi.ble quantities, which thus excludes the Tobo1 basin
from the zone under examination, considering in this case the withdrawals from the
Ufa and Chusova rivers in the expense part of the water balance.
Thus the following remain in the first group of alternatives:
I-A--the region delimited by the basins of the Caspian (less the Transcaucasus),
Azov, and rivers of the northern Euro~ean USSR;
I-B--as above, plus the Dne~r basin;
I-C--region I-A plus the Kura basin;
I-D--region I-A plus the Ob' basin.
Variants containing other combinations of two or three additional basins may be
added if we find that I-B, C, or D turns out to be better than I-A. In order to
keep the analysis simple, these combinations will not be examined at this moment.
The second group of alternatives embraces different variants of agricultural develop-
ment in the region accounting for a final production target set for the country as
a whole. It should be considered in this case that:
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All of the variants account fully for the possibility of intensifying agriculture
on unirrigated land through mechani zation and chemicalization of production, as
suggested in existing plans;
the agricultural production volume of the region can vary in response to changes in
the growth rate of irrigated farming, which is viewed as the principal approach to -
intensifying production. In this case the lacking production (seen in variants
calling for limited development of irrigation) must be compensated by the supplanted
variants (for example, by intensification of the draining of land in West Siberia, -
faster development of irrigated land in the Ukraine and along the Danube-Dnepr
canal, irrigation of land with water diverted from Siberian rivers into Central Asia
and Kazakhstan--in other words, through development proceeding outside the bounds
of the region under examination).
Four alternatives can be offered f~,- examination in thE second group:
II-A--cessation of growth of irrigated land area in the region after 1980;
II-B--continued develo�~.ment of irrigation in the region, with the area of irrigated
land increasing at, the rate achieved in 1976-1980;
II-C--as above, with a higher growth rate;
II-D--development of irrigation at a lower rate, almost twice less than }he present -
one.
The third group of alternatives includes variants of different types of irrigation in
which water consumption and, consequently, the need for water diver~ion would vary:
III-A--in the foreseeable future, sprinkling will be the principal form of irrigation
(this is in keeping with the present and foreseeable level of development of irri-
gation technology); old irrigation systems (there are not many of them in the region)
would be brought up to modern standards;
III-B--transition, in the course of 15-20 years, to irrigation technology that is
more economical (in relation to wate r consumption)--drip, subsoil, and finely dis-
persed, which would reduce water consumption by two or three times while maintaining
the same production volume, but whi ch would also require significantly greater fore-
seeable outlays. -
'The fourth and fifth groups of variants deal with different possibilities for
solving the problem of the inland seas (Czspian and Azov), mainly in relation to
development of fisheries. Z'he Caspian Sea now provides the bulk of the most valuable
species of fish caught in the country. In recent years, the annual sturgeon catches _
have been about 1.5 times above the maximum catches of previous years. This was
achieved despite the fact that a cascade of hydroelectric power plants was built
on the Volga, cutting the fish off from their spawning grounds in the cent~al and ~
- upper reaches of the river. Sturgeon production was increased through broad intro-
duction of artificial reproduction. In this sama period., there was a decrease in
- the catches of semimigratory fishe s and herring (although the sea's total catches
dzd not change due to an increase in the sprat catch). In the period from 1960 to
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1974 the level of the Caspian Sea remained rather stably near the -28.5 meter mark
(6). Scientific research institutes have established (1) that a drop of 1 meter i�~
the level of the Caspian Sea would reduce its potential fish productivity by four-f~~~~~
times in relation to sturgeons and by ~hree times in relation to semimigratory fis}..
Were the sea level to drop by 2-3 meters, the Caspian could lose its entire signi-
ficance to f.isheries in relation to valuable species of fish.
In comparison with all of the seas of the world, the Sea of Azov is typified by the
greatest payoff per unit area, with more than half of the catches in the 1930's
being represented by valuable f'reshwater fish genera. The composition of the
catches has transformed in recent years as a result of the sea's pollution on the
background of its increasing salinity (owing to diversion of water into the Aon
and Kuban' basins)--valuable genera make up about 5 percent of the gross catches.
The present mean annual inflow of river water into the Sea of Azov has decreased
from 41 km3(~e natural situation) to 28 km3; in this case the salinity of the sea
- increased from 10.5 to 13 ~/00, Were the present trend of increasing water diversion
to persist in the basin, in the future the salinity of the Sea of Azov may reach the
level of the Black Sea (17-18 0/00), as a result of which the Azov's fauna may be
supplanted by the poorer fauna of the Black Sea.
The following variants are suggested �or examination in the fourth group (Caspian
Sea) : -
IV-A--acceptance of a declining s~a level in connection with growth in water con-
sumption within the Caspian basin; this variant is equivalent to abandoning fisheries
in the Caspian Sea, which would concurrently harm a ntnnber of other national economic
sectors;
IV-B--halting the decrease in the sea'�s level by placing 'che fizst generation of ,
the water diversion system, created for average hydrometeoro'.ogical conditions, into
operation; ~aising the sea to the level necessary to support productive fishing
10-20 years after introduction of the second generation of the diversion system;
IV-C--as above, except that the level of the sea would be raised 10-20 years after
introduction of the first generation of the diversion system;
IV-D, E--as in IV-B and C, but with a consideration for a low-water period in which
demand would be satisfied by 75 percent;
IV-F, G--as above, with 90 percent satisfaction;
IV-H, I--as above, with 95 percent satisfaction.
The variants of the fifth group (Sea of Azov) may include the following:
V- -abandonment of fisheries in the Sea of Azov; in this case development of water
consumption within the basin fo~lowing variant II-B would be possible for another
15-20 y~,.irs (until the inflow into the sea reaches about 22 km3, which is close to
evaporati-~n from the sea's swrface), after which water would have to be diverted from
the Volga into the Don;
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V-B--transfer.of water from the Volga to the Don in the immediate future, coupled
with gradual increase of the inflow into the Sea of Azov to 32 km3/year; in this
case the sea's salinity would stabilize at about 12.8-13 ~/00, which corresponds to
the salinity of the Caspian; the Kerch Strait would remain open, and the Dolgaya
and Belosarayskaya sand baxs at the outlet of the Bay of Taganrog would surface; the
bay would transform into a nursery for valuable fish genera;
V-C--closure of the Kerch Strait with a dam and locks; the mean perennial demand
for diverted water would decrease in the future to 4 km3; the sea's salinity would
stabilize at 10.5 ~/00; in certain years anchovies would be unable to pass through
the strait; removal of pollutants from the Azov by flushing action would worsen
somewhat;
V-D--gradual recovery of natural inflow into the sea, in response to diversion,
to 41 km3 (salinity would stabilize at 10.5 ~/00); the demand for diverted water
would be 9 km3 greater than in variant V-B.
Before making an economic comparison, all variants of groups IV and V must be -
equalized in terms of fish production. This means that the variant with the
greatest production is taken as the basis, and in all others the lacking production
is made up by substituting production operations: All fish except the sturgeons are
compensated by cultivation of pond carp, sturgeons are compensated by pond bester
(a hybrid of beluga an d sterlet), and roe,which provides the bulk of the income of C
fisheries and which cannot be obtained in substituted ~roduction operations, is
compensated in monetary cerms, in a currency equivalent. _
Variants in the sixth group consider different uses of water in the Volga basin from
the standpoint of producing hydroelectric power (hydroelectric power plants on other
rivers of the region are small, and as a rule they operate on demand, capitalizing
on releases of water for f ishing, navigational, and flushing purposes). Given
different volumes of discharqe in the Volga (following adoption of certain variants
of the previous groups), two variants for regulating Volga discharge are possible
from the standpoint of hydroelectric power engineering:
VI-A--a power production variant, in which all of the requirements insuring guaran- _
teed values for the parameters of a hydroelectric power plant in the fall-winter
- period are satisfied, and production is maximized to the extent possible in this
period; unutilized releases of water are minimized in the high-water period;
VI-B--oth~~r forms of regulation in which guaranteed values are not maintained for
the parameters of a hydroelectric power plant because of the priority placQd on the
needs of fisheries, water transportation, and irrigated agriculture.
The seventh group concerns itself with the possibilities of river transportation.
The object of variation here is the situation on the Volga and the Kama, where the
shipment volume is 40 percent of the total for the country's river fleet as a whole.
The Don's sllipping parameters do not depend in principle on the decisions made as
to diverting and distributing the discharge of rivers (due to completion of efforts
to create a lock system along the Lower Dan in the near future); on the Kuban',
Terek, and Ural, shipping is either absent or consists of a negligible volume of
local traffic.
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The following variants for development of transportation on the V~lga are possible:
- VII-A--use of vessels with normal draft (a guaranteed depth of 4 meters); in this
case a flow ~ate of 4,000 m3/sec wou?d be needed below Volgogradskoye reservoir, witl~
95 percent assurance, for the duration of the continuous part of the navigation
season;
VII-B--conversion to vessels with a draft decreased by 0.5 meters, and a flow rate
of 3 , 400 m3/sec;
VII- C--conversion to ve~sels with a draft increased by 0.5 meters, with a flow rate
of 5 , 000 m3/sec .
Othe r possible variants may consider using water diversion channels for shipping,
both in the zone of discharge withdrawal and conveyence, and in the zone of its
dis tribution. To simplify the analysis, these questions are examined as local ones
in e ach concrete variant of diversion canal and route, and the decision to include
or not include shipping facilities as part of the diversion route is made according
to the conventional procedure used in planning hydraulic engineering systems de-
pe nd ing on costs and effectiveness.
Fina lly, the eighth group of variants includes alternative solutions for diverting
wat er from the north to the south of the European USSR, and their different
engi neering concepts. Because an infinitely large number of alternatives, with
different locations for the gates of hydraulic engineering structures and different
parameters and combinations of stages, would be possible for each dQnor river, it
woul d be best to name just the variant subgroups in this group:
VIII -A--diversion of water from rivers in the northern European USSR, southward
alon g the main trunk of the river system and countercurrent to it, coupled with
cons truction of reservoirs along the diversion route to adjust for the river's
irregular flow rates; solutions of this type have been examined for the basins of
the Neva River, Lake Vyg, Kemi River, Kovda, Lake Onega, the Northern Dvina (to-
gether with the Sukhona and Vychegcla), the Mezen' River, and the pechora;
- VII I-B--diversion of water from rivers of the northern European USSR southward,
tran sferring the water through the channel of one of the tributarie~~ that is
sho r ter in length and which has a narrower floodplain (to reduce the flooding area),
coupled with construction of reservoirs along '..he diversion route in order to raise
the uniformity of water flow; such variants have been examined for the basins of the
Northern Dvi.na (requiring transfer along the Vaga and Yemets) and the Pechora (re-
quiring transfer along the Pizhma and Izhma) ;
VII I-C--the diverted discharge is regulated (with the purpose of making the south-
- war d flow of water more uniform) not in reservoirs along the diversion route, but
in the estuary regions of the donor rivers ("marine reservoirs"); a fundamental
pos sibility for creating such reservoirs was revealed in the Onega inlet on the
Whi te Sea and the Pechora inlet on the Pechora Sea, of which the former enjoys the
doub tless advantages;
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VIII-D--diversion of part of the discharge of the Ob' River basin to the southern
European USSR across the Ural range and through the basins of the Pechora and (or)
Kama;
VIII-E--measures to reduce evaporation from the surface of the Caspian Sea, which
may be equated to diversion in terms of their influence upon the sea's level; two
- measures of this type would be realistic: reducing (or halting) entry of water into
the Bay of Kara-Bogaz-Gol; diking off the northeastern shallows of the Caspian Sea;
VIII-F--transfer of waters from the Black Sea to the Caspian via the Kuma-Manychskoye
basin. Thi~ measure would be equivalent to transferring the waters of the northern
rivers in terms of its influence upon sea level (but not upon salinity and biogenic
potential).
The eight groups described above, each of which. contain from 2-3 (II.I, VI, VII) to
35 (VIII),alternative solutions, can be used to create a system of variant combina-
tions. Theoretically, we can create about 160,000 combinations of eight components
each out of this set of alternatives. If we consider that some variants of a group
are not totally independent of variants of another group (for example VIII-D can be
considered only in conjunction with one of the variants of group I, namely I-D),
then the total number of r?al combinations would be lower, though it still would be
in the thousands. In view of the impossibility and unfeasibility of studying each
of these combinations, it would be more constructive to examine the variants within
each group after sett~ng identical external conditions for the other groups of alter-
natives (that is,.for the other groups we would select the variants that may have
been chosen previously, or the most probable variants). This makes it possible to
reduce the set under consideration to several dozen basic variants. The concrete
plan was written and several scenarios were evaluated with the help of particular
mathematical models develope3 to support the most laborious steps in the planning
of river diversion, steps in which multiple repetition of i.dentical computations in
which only certain parameters are varied offers the best conditions for applying
calculation algorithms. These steps include:
a) treatment of the results of hydrological analyses~
b) treatment of the field data obtained in engineering, geoloqical, az~d hydro-
geological studies;
c) ~ptimization of the distribution of the country's agricultural production;
d) optimization of the distribution of capital investments i~to land improvement,
with respect to different oblasts of ch? r~gion;
e) estimation of water use by irrigated agricul ture in the region, with respect to
individual oblasts, basin zones, and climatic zones, using perennial meteorological
data;
_ f) water management computations for the Don and Volga basins;
g) estimation of the dynamics of the Caspian Sea's level, in terms of probability;
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h) prediction of changes in flow rates in a major lake system in response to diver-
sion (for example in Lake Onega) ;
i) design and estimation of the construction costs.
We will conclude with a brief survey of the results of expert analysis of variants
in the eight groups of alternative solutions to the problem of diverting part of the
discharge of northern rivers into the Volga, listed ~ove,
Examination of variants in the first group (the region's boundaries) revealed that
diversion of part of the discharge of northern rivers into the Dnepr basin would
` be about 1.5 times more expensive than diversion of water into this region from the
Danube, and because of this and the limited possibilities for withdrawing water from
~ the northern rivers, the latter may be considered only after the possibilities for
diverting Danube discharge are exhausted. Diversion of water from the Volga into the
Kura basin is deemed unsuitable due to high cost and the complexity of the diversion
route.
Variant I-D was not included among the recommended solutions because diversion from
the Ob' basin turned out to be three to four times more expensive (in terms of both
capital investments and annual expenses) than transfer of water from northern rivers
of the European USSR. All of this permitted us to choose variant I-A as the main
one upon which to base formation of combinations with variants in other groups.
- Analysis of the alternatives in the second group--halting development of irrigation
or permitting its growth in three variants--demonstrated that halting the development
of irrigation after 1980 would not solve the problem of the Caspian Sea: A water
deficit of about 4 km3 would already exist by this time, and growth in industry,
cities, and municipal services would quickly increase this c3eficit by several orders
of magnitude. A study of the effectiveness of land improvement measures, mainly
irrigated agriculture, revealed that maintaining, in the future, the rate of growth
of irrigated land attained in the lOth Five-Year Plan (1976-1980) would be suitable.
However, considering that the rate of diversion of discharge from northern rivers
would not keep up with such development, fisheries would be better off with a
variant calling for a lower rate of growth, where the future increment of irrigated
land area would be 55-60 percent of the rate planned for the lOth Five-Year Plan.
~ Analysis of the variants of types of irrigation (irrigation technology), which make
up the third group of alternatives, led to the conclusion that transition to more-
economical forms of irrigation (drip, subsoil, finely dispersed) would be highly
limited in scale ur~til the end of the current century (2-3 percent according to some
estimate., and not more than 6-8 percent according to others), due to the high cost
of construction per hectare. The cost would be 6,000-8,000 rubles per hectare for
drip irrigation, which is two to three times more expensive than irrigation with
sprinkling systems. Even if we consider that drip irrigation can raise the yield
by an average of 25-30 percent and the unit capital investments on water diversion
would be somewhat lower, for most crcps (except orchards, vineyards, and vegetables)
drip irrigation is still about 1.5-2 times less effective than sprinkling. As far
as finely dispersed irrigation is concerned, th~ technology has not been fully worked
out yet, and tr.erefore we cannot count on its extensive introducion in the near
futu~e .
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A study of the variants of the Caspian Sea's level in relation to different combina-
tions of the flow rates of the basin's rivers, water withdrawals, ar.d water transfers
showed that a significant decline in the sea's level could not be justified from
either an economic or, all the more so, an ecological and social point of view. The
most acceptable variant is that of raising the level of the Caspian Sea after the
commissioning of the first generation of a discharge diversion system in average
hydrometeorological conditions, followed in the future by a~ransition to control of
the sea's level in low-water periods as well.
The recommended variant for the Sea of Azov entailed rehabilitation of Azov fisher-
ies coupled with construction of the Kerch hydraulic engineering complex, which
would make it possible to maintain previous salinity (10.5 ~/00) in the presence of
an inflow of river water totaling 28 km3 per year on the average of several years.
- In the event that a~ositive decision is not made for the Kerch hydraulic engineer-
ing complex in view of the elements of ecological risk contained in such a project,
a substitute variant would be recomanended--stabilizing the salinity of the Sea of
Azov at 12.8-13 ~/00, maintaining an inflow rate of 32 km3, and leaving the Strait
of Kerch open. In this case Taganrog Bay would play the role of a nursery for
sturgeons and semimigratory fish, following restoration of Dolgaya and Belosarayskaya
sand bar;
~ .
Examination of the variants in the sixth and seventh groups, which are oriented
- at revealing the optimum schedule of water releases on the Volga, led to the con-
' clusion that priority should be given to the energy and transportation nariants ~
that assure the guaranteed planned parameters of the Volga-Kama GES cascade and
create conditions permitting ~hipping with a guaranteed depth of 4.0 meters in the
period of the first generation of the diversion system, followed in the future by a
transition to a depth of 4.5 meters.
Study of the variants in the eighth group (discharge diversion alternatives) led to
selection of the effective variant, entailing diversion, in the first generation of
the system, about 35-40 km3 of water per year from Lake Onega and. the upper
reaches of the Onega, Sukhona, and Pechora, in which case the volume withdrawn from .
each of these sources would be set at no more than 10-15 percent of the main channel's
discharge at its mouth. Of the possible solutions for the second generation, di-
version of water from the "Gulf of Onega" reservoir, created in part of the White
Sea basin, offers the best indicators, particularly in terms of. lowest influence
upon the natural and economic environment. This system would more than double the
diversion volume, and solve the problem of supplying water to the southeastern
European USSR for the entire foreseeable future.
5uccessive implementation of the basic premises of systems analysis to develop the
technical-economic grounds for diverting part of the discharge of northern rivers
permi,.ted planners to conceptualize the problem as a whole and concentrate their
efforts on the key factors of such a large, multifaceted water management project.
In the form we used here, systems analysis is a flexible tool for planning the
creative work of the planner, and what is extremely significant, it allows us to
combine previous developments, many of which entailed manual methods or heuristic
techniques; with modern studies presently being conducted with the exteasive help of
computers and simulation modeling.
89
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: BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. "Biologicheskaya produktivnost' Kaspiyskogo morya" [Biological Productivity of .
the Caspian Sea], Moscow, Izd-vo Nauka, 1974.
2. Voropayev, G. V., and Kiselev, V. G., "The Problem of Evaluating the Effective-
ness of Plans for Redistributing Water Resources," in "Metody sistemnogo analiza
v problemakh ratsional'nogo ispol'zovaniya vodnyich resursov" (Methods of Systems
Aiialysis in the Problems oF Sensi.ble Use of Water Resources], Vol 2, Moscow,
Izd-vo VTS AN SSSR, 19'.6.
3. Gerardi, I. A., "The Unified State System for Control and Territorial Redistri-
bution of Water Resources," GIDROTEKHNIKA I MELIORATSIYA, No 7, 1975.
4. Moiseyev, N. N., "Neformal'nyye protsedury i avtomatizatsiya proyektirovaniya"
[Informal Procedures and Automation of Planning], Moscow, Izd-vo Znaniye, 1979.
5. Pospelov, G. S., and Irikov, V. A., "Progranunno-tselevoye planirovaniye i upravleniye
[Specific Program Planning and Control], Moscow, Izd-vo Sov. radio,~
1976.
6. Shiklomanov, I. A., "Gidrologicheskiye aspekty problemy Kaspiyskogo morya"
- [Hynrological Aspects of the Caspian Sea Problem], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1976.
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nauka", "Vodnyye resursy", 1981
11004
CSO: 1824 /180
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STUDY OF RIVER DIVERSION IMPACT ON USSR DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENT COIV'rINUE~
Moscow VODNYYE RESURSY in Russian No 2, 1981 pp 5-11
[Article: "An Important Step in Development of the Country's Water Supply Problem"]
[Text] The gross volume of industrial production has increased 180-fold during the
years of Soviet power. The areas of irrigated lands incr~ased from 4 Co 17 million
hectares and energy generat ion at hydroelectric power plants has reached approxi-
mately 170 billion kW�hr. The hous ing problem is being solved successfully and the
rates of growth of the people's welfare are increasing. Behind these well-known
facts stands the increase in the vo lumes of water drawn out of sources, from approx-
imately 50 to 500 km3/year, and as a result in a n~ber of instances the growth of
demand for guaranteeing the water content of rivers is commensurate with their flow
in low-water years. Water is becoming one of the leading resources which affect
the distribution of product ive forces, while water supply becomes an ever more sig-
nificant component of the cost of manufactured products.
The main source of the water resources in the USSR both now and in the~foreseeable
future is surface waters, in volume of which the Soviet Union occupies second place
in the world (4,700 km3/year). Resources of underground waters, despite the con-
siderably smaller volumes, p lay an important role in potable and household water
supply.
Total water consumption in the USSR comprises approximately 10 percent of the
volume of river flow and approximateLy half of the water used is returned to the
sources. However, despite the seeming benefit, the water management balance (cor-
relation of water needs to its pres ence at the source) is now under stress in some
main river basins. This situation ensues from the following factors.
The distribution of water users doe s not correspond to the distribution of water
resources (a total of appro~imately 20 percent of the country's water resources
goes to inhabitEd and econamically developed territories where up to 80 percent of
the water needs are concent rated). The frequently high concentration of popula-
tion and water-consuming industrial plants was historically located in wstershed
territories rich in minerals, but with shallow rivers characterized by an unstable
rate of flow.
The intraannual distribution of streamflow does not corrPSpond to the intraannual
variation of water needs (an excep tion are the Central Asian rivers, the summer f lood-
ing of which coincides approximately with che period of greatest irrigation, due to
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which more than half the flow on the Amu Dar'ya and Syr Dar'ya rivers is used in
the national economy with relatively small capacity of regulating reservoirs). _
The possibilities of a radical ~hang~ of th~ intraannual distr.ibution of fiow ar~:
l+mited, which is expZained by the absence of favorable topographic conditions for
creation of capacious reservoirs or unacceptable flooding of agricultural l~nds,
impoxtant national economic or cultural-historical objects, mineral deposits and so
on.
The scope of the interannual fluctuations of flow incr~ases as one penetrates the
arid zone where the main mass of water consumers is concentrated.
Water supply problems have now been complicated considerably. Implementation of
measures related to collection and delivery of water to the user is now inadequate.
Making up the water needs has become posaible in practica.lly all large and medium
river basin3 (within the main economically developed territory of the country)
only with implementation of ineasures directed toward increasing the available water
resources. One of the measures in this plan may be territorial redistribution of
river flow.
The main factors which advance the problem of supplementing the river flow of the
country's southern slope should be noted.
- Thus, creation of cascades of hydroelectric power plants, maintaining the increasing
guaranteed depths for water transport, provision of favorable spawning conditions~
flooding river lands and so on require conservation of guaranteed water content on
the rivers by special water permits. In some cases a"generalized" permit places
significantly higher requirements on the voliune of guaranteed water resources than
the total application to remove water from the source. For example, this is the ~
situation on the Volga, Dnepr.and other large rivers.
Moreover, more than half of the country's population 1-~ves on the territaries of
, river basins falling into the inland seas: the Caspian, Azov, Aral , Balkhash,
Issyk-�'.ul' and others. Any siqnificant removals of water from the rivers of these -
basins lead to an unfavorable change of the regime of the seas, which in turn in-
flicts losses on the national economy and has a negative effect on the environment.
One must proceed toward implementation of expensive compensation measures to pre-
_ vent or soften these consequences.
The development of water consiunption is accompanied by an increase in the volumes of
~per.t waters which are returned to one or another extent tu the ~aater sources.
= Enormous work is being carried out in the country, directed towa:d reducing the
amount of polluted substances entering the water sources. It is sufficient to say
that the state has spent six billian rubles during the past ~ years on cAnstruction
of purification plants. Considerable funds are beinq spent on development of c~r-
culating water suppl~~ systema which prevent discharqe of waste waters into reser-
voirs, on development of non-waste produ~tion proceases and so on. However, where-
as a dip has already hegun in the dynamics of pollution of water resources with
industriai wastes in some regions, fundamental solution of the problem requires
even greater efforts and additional large capital investments. The fact is that
reservoir pollution by fertilizers and toxic chemicals running off cultivated _
_ fields in an organized manner (in the form of drain water) and also with thaw and
92 . '
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rain water, begins to play an ever more discernible role; the rain runoff of cities
carries a significant amount of polluting substances. Purification or accumulation
of polluted waters of these types encounters consic~erable technological difficul-
ties and solution of this problem will apparently not be as rapid as in control of
polluting substances of industrial and household origin. Probably it will be ~
necessary for many years to cope with~ the possible anthropogenic effect on water
quality on various rivers and to different degrees. This means specifically that
specific volumes of water must be reserved to dilute the incomi.ng polluting sub-
stances (of course, provided that a combinatidn of preventive measures is .
implemented) . -
- Further, a problem inherent to pollution--an increase of the mineralization of
river water, which increases downstream due to significant reduction of river
flaw i.n general or due to an increase of water intake with retention or an increase ~
of ~che nwnber of incoming salts (due to flushing of irrigat2d lands)--occurs on
rivers whose f low is taken intensively for irrigation . We note that flushing
irrigated tracts is in many cases a compulsory condition of protecting soils
against salinization. However, an increase of minsralization of river waters some-
times occurs to limits that begin to make water use difficult. Salinization of
lower reaches acquires a specific nature during an increase of water use on rivers
which form estuaries, and even more so since the salinity of water in estuaries -
increases sharp? ~ during reduction of . flow due to the lesser dilution of the in-
coming sea waters due to winds (the volume of wind-driven sea water even increases
somewhat).
Finally, it should noted that the problem of transport and distribution of the
surplus solid flow occurs for rivers which carry a large amount of detritus under
conditions of intensive water intake. The fact is that the transporting capability
of the flow decreases due to a decrease of water content and flow velocities, while -
the detritus load decreases insignificantly. -
~ Finally, it is impossible not to touch on probiems of water quality. Restoration
and maintenance of the required quality of natural waters should be solved with -
regard to the effect of the redistributed runoff on it. However, rehandli.na of
flow alone cannot solve this problem if the discharges of polluting substances
- into water sources are not s~opped.
Optimtam management of water resources, which includes management of the conditions _
of artifical and natural water facilities (including the watex quality mode) in the
interests of various sectors of the national economy and the sphere of social de-
velopment, distribution of water resources among sectors of the economy a:-~d indi-
vidual water users and distribution of water resources among the country's region~
~ on a different scale, river basins, large lakes and inland and coastal seas, ac-
quires ever greater significance as water needs inc.rease. -
Three aspects c~f this problem should be especially considered in this case.
1. Optimwn management of large water management systEms, which will encompass -
ever larger territories when the proposed interbasin transfers of water are imple-
mented. Accordingly, the effect of management will incr~ase as a result of reduc-
ing the synchronization between fluctuations of flow of the joined sources and
fluctuations of cvater use in different regions of the water-management system. -
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2. Optimum management of the conditions of the Sea of Azav and the Caspian Sea
under conditions of supplementing the inflow to thes~ seas, which, along with some
reduction of the required volumes of water supplied perennially, opens up the op-
portunity for a sicJnificant decrease of unfavorable deviations of the conditions
of the seas from theae average perennial characteristica.
3. Intensification of the use of underground levels by periodic supplementation
of these reserves with surface waters (during periods of a surplus of the latter).
_ As is known, the main water user is irrigated agriculture, develop3nent of which is
inherent to the insufficient wetting zone. Therefore, the increase of water needs
~n the southern part of the country, where resources are limited and the capabili -
~ ties of using local water resources initially with the natural conditions ~f water ~
faci3itiss and then with regulated conditions are rather quickly exhausted, is
essentially predetermined. This circumstance makea it neceasary for interbasin re-
distribution of wat~r resources.
_ We note that interbasin redistribution of river flow is in no way an essentially
new method of water supply. Examples may be delivery of part of the flow of the
Msta River to the Tvertsa River basin (18th century), the flow of Kuban' water to
the Manych and K~na rivers, the flow of Irtysh water to the Nura River, creation
of the Karakum canal and so on.
- - _ _ _ -
It is also known that one must encounter removal of lands and other natural re- -
sources for canals, reservoirs and various hydroengineering installations at the
earliest stages of water-management construction. Changes of natural conditions
- were observed along the routes of diversions: the ground water reqime was disrup-
ted, the soil and vegetation cover of adjacent territories was transformed and the
regime of the liquid, biogenic and solid f1ow~ of rivers was changed. As the ~
scale of water-management measures increa~es, their effect on the environment nat-
urally increases. _
Systems of intra- and interbasin redistribution of flow , which not only success-
fully fulfill mu~.tisectoz economic and sacial functions but have a favorable effect
on the state of the environment of the adjacent territories, exist in the USSR. An
example may be the Moscow-VOlga (now called the Canal imeni Moscow), constructed
during the 1930s, which became a reliable source of drinking, communal-household
and i.ndustrial water supply for Moscow and the Moacow area and created a deepwater
' route which co:?nected Moscow to the Baltic, Pfiite and subsequently to the Sea ofr.
Az.nt~ ~d the Black Sea.
'I'he given example with the Canal imeni Moscow shows the principle capability of
territorial redistribution of river flow with relatively low losses to the environ-
ment, but with the provision of modera~~ (compased to the water content of the donor
river) volumes of water intake and reclamation of diversion of territories adjacen t
to the routes.
Subsid~es ~f watF~r :resouz�c_s t~~ t_}Lre~ .regians o~ the country�---the Caspian Sea and
Sea Of A'LOV basins, ~ue basin cf
the a.z~a? 'slcoye I~i~.e and Moldavia and the South-
ern Ukraine--are now required.
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The need to bring in waters from outside these zones is dictated by the following
circumstances.
'Phe area of irriga~ed lands a~proaches 7 million hectares while the uncirculated
water use comprises app~oximately 70 km3/years or approximately 2/3 of the averaqe
perennial ~low af these rivers in the Amudar`ya and ~8qr~lar'ya basins. The ef-
ficiency of agriculture is determined by favorable climatic conditions for produc-
tion of agricultural products (primarily cotton) and also by the high rates of
- growth of the population and of labor resources. The available water resources of
this zone are close to exhausted. True, approximately 15-18 km3 of water can be
additionally ac~uired annuall.y by regulation of flow~. Reconstruction of irriga-
tion systems may also release some quantity of water, but the effect of thi_s
measure is limited. Hence, the conclusion suggests itself that intensive develop-
ment of irrigation in the indicated basins can continue beyond the present century
only if one can ._~.cAt~At - on water resources being brought in from outside.
Taking the grandiose nature and complexity of this work into account, one r~iu~t
carefully approach the basis of the rates of devel~pment of irrigated agriculture
in these regions .
River flow has been reduced by approximately one~fourth as a result of water
removal in the Dnepr river basin, where irrigation of grain crops has prov~d its
high effec~iveness. Ever increasing distribution of saline Black Sea wat~rs up-
stream along the Dnepr and Bug rivers is beginning to be felt as a ccrosequence.
As water consumption increases, salinization of the Dnepr-Bug estuary may entail
unfavorable ecological consequences. True, construction of the Lower Dnepr Hydro-
engineering Complex will make it possible to release approximately 10 km3/year, _
but this cannot �ully sotve the problem of water supply to the region. Further
development of the water-consuming sectors of the economy in the Dnepr River basin
requires that water be brought in from the outside.
The need to supplement the water resources of the Caspian Sea and Sea of Azov basins
~ is also caused by development of irrigated agriculture. Although the needs of
agriculture and industry in the foresee~ble future in this region could essentially
by mac~e up by using local water resources, this would result in an impermissible
reduction of the inf lux to the Caspian Sea and Sea of Azov. Moreover, the basins
of these seas was long distinguished by high biological productivity which is de-
termined by the large biogenic runoff formed in the valleys of Central Russia, by
the shallow water of the Sea of Azov and the Northern Caspian Sea, where photo-
synthesis occurs intensively under conditions of inareased solar radiation, and
also by the large area of the distributed zones within the shallow waters with
favorable conditions for young age qroups of fish shoals.
A reduction of river influx ~s accompanied by a decrease of the level of the Caspian
Sea and by an increase of the salinity of the Sea of Azov. Prerequisites are cre-
ated for a significant reduction of their biological productivity and deterioration
of the sanitary conditions, for the occurrence of unfavorable national economic
consequences and also deterioration of natural-climatic conditions on adjacent
territories. Achievement of optimum natural conditions in the basins of these seas
already requires supplementation of their water resources at the rate of approxi-
mately 10-15 km3/year and compensation of the increased water consumptien by bring-
ing water in from the outside.
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Thus, supplementation of the water resources of Central Asia and Kazakhstan, Mol-
davia and the Southern Ukraine mainly follows the goal of increasing the efficiency
of utilizing tne land resources, wh~reas subsidies of water to the Azov-Caspian
region are intended m~inly to increase the functional efficiency of the water eco-
systems under the conditions of the developing national economy of this zone.
One of the mai.n problems of supplementing the water resources of the southern part _
af the country is the establishment of water facilities --donors. It is na~ural to
_ seek these sources among the water facilities of the surplus moistening zone re- -
lated to the basins of the country's northern slope. One should take into account -
in this case both the remote prospects of development and water support of the na-
tional economy of these facilities in the basins and the direct effect of planned
removal of water resources on their regime and the environment af the basins as a
whole. One should apparently proceed from the position that ~iisruption of the
regime of water resources should not be accompanied by any sigr,ificant unfavorable ~
consequences of an economic, natural-climatic, ecological or social nature. At the
same ~ime, evaluating the permissibility of one or another inroads into the environ-
ment while making large water-management transformations, one should take into ac-
count that development of the economy inevitably leads to dieruptions of natural
conditions. The problem includes minimization of these unfavorable effects for
large regions of the country and complete elimination of them for foreign terri- .
' tories and water basins. Therefore, d~velopment of ineasures to prevent cr to re-
duce to the maximum possible the negative consequences of these transformations
becomes an important inseparable part of the complex plan for territorial redistri bu-
tion of streamflowand its scientific basis. This aspect of the problem should also
serve as one of the resolving factors of evaluating the scales and variants of the
engineering solutions for redistribution of river flow.
The acuteness of the problem of water supply to the southern territories of the
country and the condition of the south.ern seas determined the decision of the di-
rective bod.ies to compile a technical and economic basis for the first unit of
river flow diversion during the current five-year plan.
A large number of planning-research and scientific research institutes have univer-
sally studied the problem of territorial redistribution of water resources during
the past five years. The investigations specifically made it possible to estab-
iish the following:
1. The feasibility of diverting part of the flow of the northern and Siberian
rivers to the southern European USSR, Kazakhstan and Central Asia. However, the
scales and deadlines for implementing these measures need to be refined.
A complex of ineasures on the maximum possible efficient use of local water resources
must be carried out to implement streamflow diversion. These measures should in-
clude regulation of the river f low of these regions, introduction of circulating
water supply and waterless and wasteless technology, an increase in the efficiency
of irrigation systems by reconstruction of them, converting them to more economi-
cal methods of irrigation ir~ water consumption and so on, ferropurification of
waste w~ter and miscellaneous measures to protect water quality, achieving the
required level of drainage of irrigated lands, repeated use of collector-drain
waters and so on.
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2. The need to carry out careful investigations and scientific justification of
the prospects for development of ~~he national economy of the southern regions of
the European USSR and the Central region from positions of their water supply
(especially development of the water-consuming sectors of industry and distribu-
tion of the irrigat~d areas and the irrigation conclitions of chernozem soils and
also additional investigations to establish the optimum conditions and regimes and
.-of the Sea of Azov and the Aral 5ea. Possible changes in the environment
(especially irreversible negative changes) and the losses that occur as a result
of hindering the development of the national economy due to a shortage of water
resources (i.e., in the absence of additional supply from the north or delay of it
after exhaustion of the water resources of the given regions) should be determi.ned
and compared for these territories.
3. The feasibility of separate implementation of the first watsr delivery units to
J the Azov-Caspian reg~on and to the basin of the Aral Sea ~ (the water resources
of the southern European USSR should be supplemented from the water facilities of
its northern slope, the subsidy of waters to Central Asia and Kazakhstan should be
supplemented from thP closest water facility of Siberia--the Ob' River basin.
- The prospects for supplying water to Moldavia and the Southern Ukraine primaz~ily
due to the Danube-Dnepr Canal, and in the remote future due to the water facilities
of the northwestern European USSR, with regard to which it i.s undesirable to brinq
' ~ in the latter as �irst=line donors ~ for the Azov-Caspian region.
4. Step by step territorial redistribution of water resources with a gradual in-
crease of the volumes of delivered water. In this case each following step should
be taken with regard to the positive ~nd negative consequences of previous steps.
5. The consec}uences to the environment in ::ones of removal and accumulation of
streamflow, as in zones of transportation (with respect to the first unit of the
planned redistribution of flocv of the northern and Siberian rivers) will not be
global in nature. Changes may occur in the environment on a relatively small area
in the case of implementation of the investigated versions of the first unit of
territorial redistribution of flow. These changes will be manifested with differ-
ent intensity and direction. However, there is no doubt that the possible unde-
sirable changes in the environment will be mainly local in nature and can be pre-
vented, eliminated or compensated for.
6. The obligatory combination of removal of even a camparatively small part of
river flow from the northern regions of the European USSR and Western Siberia
with water-management development and optimization of the environment of these
territories.
The following should be noted in conclusion.
Diversion of part of the flow of northern rivers to the country's southern slope
should be regarded as a measure developed by the powerful anthropogenic effect on
the water resources of the southern slope and is undoubtedly only one of the
methods of supplying water to the country's national econamy. Solution of the
problem of water supply to the national economy should be based on an ogtimum
combination of various water-management and water-conservation measures such as
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making the utilization of water resources more efficient in all sectors of _
the national economy, including a fundamental change of production technology and
' regeneration of the use of water resources;
increasing the level of utili.zation of available water resources by regulation of
~ streamflow and conservation of water due to quantitative and qualitative depletion.
An optimum combination of these measures in the socioeconomic and environmental-
conservation sense should in the final analysis determine the optimum scales of
- development of each of them, including the scales and frequency of redietribution
of water resources.
Scientific research and planning work related to the country's water supply should
be continued during the next five-year Flan. The decisions of the 26th CPSU
Congress on development of the national economy and an increase of the welfare of -
the w~rkers of the USSR will be the basis of this work.
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nauka", "Vc~dnyye resursy", 1981
6521
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~
COMMENT ON RIVER REVERSAL EFFECT ON ARCTIC
Moscow PRAVDA in Russian 9 Mar 81 p 3
[Article by E. Tolstikov, deputy chairman of the State Couoanittee for Hydro-
meteorology and Environmental Control]
[Excerpt] In recent years, wark has been developing successfully in meteorology
for estimating the effect of the polar areas on the global balance of heat, mois-
ture, and energy. It has not only important practical significance, but it is
necessary as well for studying the general circulation of the atmosphere and
the role of the polar regions in it. Investigations have shown that because of
the increase in precipitation relative to evaporation over the Arctic Ocean,
more than 2,000 cubic lan of water is being taken out of the world's water econ-
omy annually. After adding the runoff of rivers into the Arctic Ocean, this
figure increases to 8,000 cubic km. The camputations for estimating the changes
in the hydrological regime of the river Ob' as a result of the supposed redistri- -
- bution of flow, show that the loss of 25 cubic km annually will not have an
appreciable influence on the processes of the hydrological cycle.
CSO: 1865/126 ~D
99
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400010044-8