JPRS ID: 9744 JAPAN REPORT

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• Sequence Number: 40
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/9744
- 19 May 1981
Ja an Re c~rt =
p p
CFOUO 32/81)
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~
_ JPRS L/9744
19 May l9 81
JAPAN REPORT ~
- (FOUO 32/81)
, CONTENTS
POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
Sense of Distrust Said Stemming From U.S, Policy
(Kazuo Hino; NZHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 30 Mar 81) 1
ECONOMLC
Experts Discuss Successful Control of Money Supply, Its Future
Pe rfo rman ce
(EKONOMI~UTO, 24 Feb 81) ................................o........ 4
SCIENCE AND ~Q~iNOLOGY
Robot Industry To Grow Rapidly in ?.981 -
(NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN, various dates)...o.....a 23
Automobile Manufacturing
International Standardization
Future Trends
Technological Developments, by Sachio Hasegawa
- Factory Automation, by Kenji Kirino
Robots That Are Available
- U.S. , USSR Inquire About Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Machine Tools -
(NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBiJN, 20 Apr 81) 43 -
USSR Inquires.�About Possibility of Large Scale Purchase of
We lding Robo ts
(NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN, 10 Mar 81) 45
Taiyo, Ltd. To Launch Robot Export Drive to U.S., USSR, Europe
(NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN, 20 Apr 81)......... 46
Yamburg Project Negotiating Team Will Visit USSR on 27 April
(NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN, 23 Apr 81) 48
- a - [III - ASIA - 111 FOUO] _
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
SENSE OF DISTRUST SAID STErIMING FROM U.S. POLICY
Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN in Japanese 30 Mar 81 p 2
[Article by Kazuo Hino: "Is the U.S. Wortry of Respect?"]
[Excerpt] It has been a. little more than 2 months since the Reagan administra-
tion was inaugurated. "Lt is too early to make a comprehensive assessment of its ~
performance. But, will the United States be more respected than before by the
nations around the world? Regrettably,the answer is negative. "Compared to the
Cime of the Carter administration, one can feel some vitality in the country, _
- but excessive tenseness makes one feel vaguely apprehensive" (the government
source). This characterization seems to be a common reaction from the Western
camp . _
One of the reasons for the Western camp's unwillingness "to show respect" lies
in a faulty start and lack uf consistency found in the announcements and
- behaviors of the U.S. Goverrnnent. A typical example is its T..~icy toward E1 -
Salvador. No sooner did an important official make an aggressive announcement
1 not to rule out the possibility of blockade or a military intervention to stop
the flow of arms from Cuba and other countries, than did [the government] seem
to revert back to a de facto inactivism after drawing strong criticisms from
within and without, thus showing too wide extent of vacillation.
Ptoreover, government officials' unnecessarily strong and provocative statements
are the source of increasing the uneasy feeling. President Reagan, for instance,
called the Soviet Union a criminal in his first press conference after the inau-
- guration; Secretary of State Haig, for another, said that "the Soviet Union is
spreading international terrorism," thereby inviting reaction from that country. �
Regarding the [military] strategy, Chairman Jones of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
declared a multiple retaliatory strategy by saying that "against a possible
Soviet attack on the regions, such as the Middle East, where the United States
_ and its allies have a life-or-death interest, the United 5tates will not only
respond mi].itarily on the spot bu.t also launch retaliatory attacks against the
militarily vulnerable points of the Soviet Union in other regions." This is a
threat implying that "it may be difficult now for the United States to deploy
its contingency forces to the Middle East in a massive scale; but, should the
Soviet Union invade the Middle East to take advantage of this situation, (the
United States) wil]. attack the Soviet territory." To Western Europe and Japan
who will be affected by this [statement], engendering such a mood of confronta-
tion without their prior consultation is troublesome.
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Another reason for their unwillingness "to show respect" is the fact that one
can notice certain arbitrariness in the U.S. behaviors, thereby leading one to
suspect that [the United States] came to have a diminished perception of itself
as the leader of the world. The Reagan administration made a large reductiori
on the foreign aids given through international organizations such as the UN
and the World Bank. With respect to tailateral aids, furthermore, it adopted
a policy of preferential aid given on a selective basis to the developing -
countries having friendly relationships with the United States. This can be -
" regarded as an unabashedly self-centered policy of "nothing-�matters-but-
efficiency," which says in effect that aid will Ue extended if it directly
benefits the United States, and that if its result is in doubt, it will be
resolutely cut off. As a result, the Carter administration's policy to par-
ticipate in the World Bank Energy Fund (the Third World Bank), which was aimed
at mitigating the problem of energy shortage among the non-oil-producing devel-
oping nations, was turned around 180 degrees. On account of this, there was
even a scene in which King, Director of the World Bank. and a representative of
the U.S. Government, resigned from his post as a protest. At any rate, it
appears that the prospect of approaching the Third World is complet~ly elimi-
nated from the U.S. policies.
Also on the matter of a new treaty for the law of the sea, which was scheduled
to be concluded in this fall, the new administration turned its baclc by saying:
"the manner by which the treaty tries to develop deepsea floors imposes exces-
sive regulations on private enterprises by international organizations." This
means a mechanistic application of Che election platform, which promised "the
relaxation of regulations and the promotion of private enterprises' dynamism,"
to international treaties. Thus, man~ measures of the Reaga:? administration,
including that of foreign aids, show the rough edgedness wnich can be seen in _
the radical behaviors of the newly developing countries. They can be charac-
terized as a lack of "kingly grace."
"Due to the relative decline ~f its national power, the United States is no
longer a king. It cannot a~ford tQ care about its appearances any more" (the -
government source)--with this remark, the matter might have been simply dis-
missed. But,[the problem is that] such image was bluntly shown in the atti~-
tude of the United States toward the problem of automobile exportation at tha
time of Foreign Minister Ito's visit to the country.
After both parties recognized the importance of maintaining the principle of
free. Crad.e, a rail was laid to the direction of Japan's voluntary imposition
of self-restraint on automobile exportation at the Ito-Reagan meer.ing. However,
it i.s a well-known fact that a strong demand for self-restraint from the United
States was behind this decision.
If both parties have recognized the principle of free trade, it is a clear case
of arbitrariness on the part of the United States to exert pressure for self-
, restraint on the export products which are being welcomed by the U.S. consumers
for their lo~�~er prices and better qualities. Although it is understandable that
the United States has complaints, bordering on resentment~, against Japan for
its expansion of its competitive power on export without many defense
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expenditures under the protective umbrella of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty,
[the arbitrariness] w'~11 certainly become another reason for not respecting
the United States on the part of the Japanese people. As Japan begins to -
think the problem of defense seriously from now on, and as long as the United
States does not care about behavior deserving respect from the nations around
the world, it is certain that there will be an ever-increasing sense of mutual
distrust.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1981
9368
CSO: 4105/146
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ECONOMIC
EXPERTS DISCUSS SUCCESSFUL CONTROL OF MONEY SUPPLY, ITS FU'~URE PERFORMANCE '
Tokyo EKONOMISUTO in Japancase 24 Feb 81 pp 10-23
[Reportage on a Symposium: "What are the Shortcomings of Current Monetary Policy?"--
Discussants: Yoshio Suzuki, Assistant Director, Special Research Office, Bank of
Japan; Masaichi Rohyama, Professor, Osaka Univer.sity; Hirohiko Okumura, Chief ~
Research fellow, Nomura Research Institute of Technology and Economics; Chaired ~
by Yasushi Kanishi, Chief Research fellow, Economic Research Office, Economic
Planning Agency~
[Text] A storm of criticism and doubt about monetary policy is brewing in various
European countries and in particular, t~~e J.j*_ed States, with its unusually high
interest rate. In this situation, onl~ Japan has succeeded, during the past
several years, in the control of money supply. What are the conditions that
supported this success and can this superior performance be continued in the future?
A third decrease in official discount rate is anticipated. To probe into possible
shorrcomings oF current monetary policy, discussions were held in the form of a
symposiu:n.
_ Successful Results of Stressing the Importance of Money
. In the July 1975 issue of its CHOSA GEPPO [RESEARCH MONTHLY], the Bank of Japan -
played up as its leading story, "On the Significance of Money Supply in Japan."
Frc:m July 1978, the Bank of Japan also began to announce, at the beginning of each
fcurth quarter, the predicted amount of the [average balance over the previous
year] of the money supply for the fourth quarter of the year concerned (at first,
M, and since July 1979, M+ CD), in terms such as, "so many percent," "approxi-
mately so many percent," or "roughly belaw so many percent."
How the money supply actually shifted, since the Bank of Japan adopted the policy
uf attaching great importance to money supply, is shown in Table 1. In 1975
and 1976, when the Japanese economy rose from zero growth, there was a rather
noticeable increase in the growth rate but since 1977, the rate has stabilized
at around 11 percent. In 1980, when money supply was tightened to cope with the
second oil shock, the rate dropped to the 9 percent level. The situation has
changed drastically from 1972 and 1973, the period of excessive liquidity, when
the growth rate exceeded 20 percent.
This stable flow of money supply, together with the enlightened efforts of industries
and households, held to a minimum the GNP deflator (wages/profits per unit of
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�inished product; a"homemade" indicator of inflation). In spite of the spiraling
prices of imported goods accompanying the second oil shock, the rise of consumer
prices (weighted average price of GNP deflator and imported prices) was hel~. to
the 8 percent level. As a result, the reactionary drop in real GNP was sma11 and
. in foreign currency exchange, the yen appreciated. Thus, the Japanese economy
showed a splendid performance which could not be compared to the time of the
first oil shock.
_ Table 1
Transition of Money Supply, Co~odity Prices, Economic Growth Rate, Etc.
is spot rate; end-of-month yen/dollar rate;
others are comparisons with previous year,
(M2+CD) *Foreign
Average Import GNP Real CurrEncy
Year Balance CPI Prices Deflator GNP Exchange
1972 26.5 4.5 ~ 4.1 4.7 9.5 302.91
1973 22.7 11.8 21.0 10.9 10,0 271.14
- 1974 11.9 24.4 66.2 20.1 Q 0.5 292.44
1975 13.1 11.8 7.6 8.6 1.4 297.25
1976 15.1 9.3 6.0 5.6 6.5 296.38
1977 11.4 8.0 d 4.2 5.6 5.4 266.91
1978 11.7 3.8 e.17.4 3.9 6.0 207.87
1979 11.9 3.6 28.6 2.0 5.9 221.37
1980 9.2 8.1 43.0 0.1 5.9 225.77
Note: To determine the GNP deflator and real GNP for 1981, the averages for the
~ first through third quarters of 1981 were compared with the averages for the
same quarters of 1980.
Various Conditions Which Supported Control , _
Probably, the control of money supply proceeded comparatively smoothly after the
1970's because of the combination of the determination of the Bank of Japan itself
and various objective conditions.
Since the 1970's, the Bank of Japan was fully aware that price stability was the
all-important prerequisite for continued prosperity and stable currency exchange.
It placed top priarity on price stability as the ultimate policy goal and as an
interin: objective, it kept a close watch on the movement of money supply reserve.
While monitoring interest rate fu~nctions which can influence the effectiveness of
its golicy courses, the Bank vf Japan strongly promoted liberalization and flexi- _
bility of interest rates. This averall policy was the chief factor which enabled
control of the money supply.
However, the fact cannot be overlooked that, concomitantly, a number of ob3ective
factors facilitated the Bank of Japan in its execution of these policies.
First is the support of the people. After bitterly experiencing the double-digit
inflation brought about by an excessive money supply and the resultant recession,
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the nation's people strongly supported placing top priority on price stability and
the policy of stressing importance on money supply to achieve that stability.
Reflecting the people's feeling, the political, f inancial and governmental circles
f ully approved the assu~tion Chat price stability was the prerequisite to continued
prosperity and stable currency exchange. The concept of "ad~usted inflation"
w~hich was heard around 1972 and 1973 is no longer mentioned.
Second is the transition to floating exchange rate system. U~der a fixed exchange
rate system, the money supply of a country becomes uncontrollab le because of inter-
national shifting of funds, reflecting internal and external monetary situations. `
Whereas under a floating exchange rate, unless a country intervenes in the currency
market, its money supply is determinad by Che monetary policy of its central baa~k,
and therefore, controllability increases.
'L'hird is the fact that with the decrease in growth rate from 1974, the demand for
capital by the civilian sector rema~.ned comparatively stable. For this reason,
- the situation did not arise where money supply had to be increased because of
competition between gover~ent bonds issued in large quantities and civilian
demand for capital.
Fourth is that financial innovation has not made much progress. As in the United
States, if new monetary funds are supplied to the people, ~ne af ter the other,
and they begin to function as near-monies, then it becomes diff icult to control
money, including the new, the currency demand becomes unsCable and the determination
of an appropriat~ money supply becomes complicated.
Fifth is the maintenance, if not the improvement, of the effect iveneas of monetary
policy.
In the case of Japan, the dissemination routes of policies are mainly through
"window guidance" [loan control] and interest rate changes. Of the two means, the
second has been strengthened since the 1970's by liberalizing and elasticizing
interest rates.
In other words, changes in the discount rate show much more maneuverability, both
in frequencies and extent. Furthermore, changes in interest rates on bank deposits,
various types of government securities, including city banks issued government .
bonds, etc. have become much more flexible than heretofore (flexibility in interest
rates). With the abolishment of the official quotation system of interbank market
i.nterest, issuance of certificates of deposits [CD] with unregulated interest
rates, flotation of bids for medium-term national bonds, government securities
market operation by Bank of Japan through bidding, etc., the areas in which
interest rates are decided by market supply and demand are increasing (liberali-
zation of interest raCes).
As a result, interest rate changes are being well reflected, as never before, in
the changes in attitude of Bank of Japan taward loans and diecounC rates and also
in the various types of interest rates, including interbank rates on discount
operations, government bond operations, etc. The influence on [credit activiti.es]
of banks and investments of enterprises is also ir.~:reasing.
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The Five Tasks Remaining in the Future
The abovementioned five ob,jective factors, together with Bank of Japan's polic:y,
are believed to have increased Che controllability of money supply but in wha~;:
ways might these factors change in the future?
As far as the first factor of people's support is concerned, appropriate execution
of monetary policies by the Bank of Japan itself and intensification of public
information activities are important elements for its continuation. To retain the
people's confidence by not erring in policy implementation is a big prerequisite
but it is also important to present an "open Bank of Japan" and to explain to the
public in understandable terms, the facts and thi.nking underlying the bank's
policies.
As for the second factor involving i.nternational finances, effects of implementing
the new foreign currency law must be watched. If settlements of transactions within
_ Japan are to be conducted in foreign currencies (a genuine currency substation
_ country), Bank of J~pan's money supply control system would lose its effective-
ness. However, such extreme cases need not be considered for the time being.
In the present situation where foreign currency deposits held by residents cannot
be used in account settlement unless they are converted to yen, such deposits are
like foreign-held stocks and should be regarded as a type of highly fluid capital
outside of the money supply.
In this case, the central core of liquidity is the money supply and if that is
, fully controlled, there is a limit to the effects of the outflow of such outside
capital.
With regard to the liberalization of overseas credit procurement such as impact
loans, it cannot be ignored, from the monetary policy standpoint, because of the
big influence it might have on the capital flow within the different domestic
enterprises. However, as long as a truly floating exchange system, without market
interventions, is followed, this type of international fund shifts should not
alter a country's money supply. That would only happen if, for some reason, high-
- powered money had to be supplied as guarantee.
iJith respect to the third factor of possible competition for capital between
governmental and non-gover~ental sectors, from the standpoint of maintaining an
active civilian economy and reconstructing finances, issuance of government securities
should bP kept to a minimum when the civilian demand for capital is high.
" As for the fourth factor of. financial innovations, there have been some activities
in that direction in Japan such as the dissemination of cash cards and cash
dispensers, diffusion of automatic overdraft line of credit contracts using as '
collateral something other than time deposits (e.g., personal trust, various types
of trust, etc.), increasing realization of the superiority of postal savings both
tax-wise and interest-wise, etc. However, the inflationary rate is not as high as
the United States and since the development of new types of products is regulated,
_ there is no reason to believe that there will be a drastic transfer of funds aside
from the current shift to postal savings.
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With reepect to the fifth factor of mnintaining effective monetary policies, it is -
essential to improve interest rates through flexibility and liberalization.
Why Was Only Japan Successful?
Kanishi: We have received Mr Suzuki's report and I believe that there are many
problems invoived in money supply. However, at today's symposium, I wish to focus ~
the discussion on the theme of whether money supply control will proceed smoothly
in the future in the midst of the various developments presently taking place and
what points must be considered to make the control successful.
First, let us start with Mr Rohyama.
Rohyama: I think that basically, the determination of the Bank of Japan and the
five ob3ective factors mentioned by Mr Suzul~i are correct. However, I feel that
there is a need to delve further into the details of each. ~
First, the objective conditions affecting money supply control were extrem~ly
favorable. In Suzuki's report, the stable demand for capital is giv~n as the
- third factor but this can be considered as one of the lucky factors.
For another, as compared with various foreign countries, the expectation of
inflation fortunately calmed do~,~n after the period of excessive liquidity. On
that score, Japan differed from ather countries which tried to hold down infla-
tionary trends through money supply ccntrol. If it proceeds smoothly, money supply
control becomes highly successful but once it slips, it loses its efficacy no
~ matCer how much effort is put into it. That is one of its characteristics.
Thirdly, Japan faces two monetary problems, one in internationalization and the _
other in issuance of large amounts of government securities. _
In the international sphere, Mr Suzuk~L places great emphasis on the exclusion
effect of the free floating exchange system. It is questionable, however, whether
it should be so hi~hly evalua.ted....Issuance of large quantiti~g of government
securities has the effect of triggering changes in the market structure and how
to cope with such developments is a problem.
Okumura: I have about three co~nents to make. First, it is a fact that the
performance was extremely good. One of the reasons why expectations of rising
commodity prices and inflation were held down is the fact that the Bank of Japan
began to attach great importance to money supply control. On that point, it is
stated in Suzuki's r~eport that the people came around to supporting money supply
policies but I think that there is some question about this.
For example, watching the violent fluctua.tions of nominal interest rates in the
United States today, many Japanese entrepreneurs and people in monetary circles
are highly critical. 3uch big changes in nominal interest rates cannot be condoned.
They are hoping, if possible, for stabilization of nominal interest rates. If
that is the case and if for some reason, expectations of inflation increase in
Japan, will the people support Bank of Japan if it continues its present monetary
policy?
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Secondly, with xespect to evaluation of changes in monetary activities and innova-
tions, I wish to stress this matter further and evaluate the growth of present
money supply. For example, the business practice by enterprises of saving idle
money is called cash management in the United States and commercial banks and stock _
brokerage firms are actively performing this service for enterprises. Even in
- Japan, there are clear indications that business enterprises are starting cash
management.
Cases are considerably increasing where enterprises, sesking capital, are
aggressively selecting capital procurement methods with cheap intereat costs.
Of course, because of bank connections, in an overwhelming number of cases,
borrowers leave the loans alone but the ratio is inereasing of borrowers taking
action, depending on the :;it~. _tion. Because of this, the currency demand of
enterprises has changed considerably. Even with family savings, there has been
a noticeable trend since about spring of last year toward profitable bonds and
postal savings. ~
Contradictions in Logic? .
Okumura: Thirdly, I wish to co~ent on the interest rate functions. Suzuki's
report stated that the Bank of Japan has progressed considerably in liberalizing
' interest rate and assessed that it has increased the effectiveness of its monetary
policy. However, in spite of Bank of Japan's liberalization, areas in which the
effect has not penetrated can be pointed out. Even if enterprises find a cert.ain
- capital procurement method cheaper than the present bank loan, they cannot decide
to repay the existing bank loans. If the basic reasons for this are searched,
one is led to various types of regulations, pra:iibitive principles, etc. It is
believed that part of the underlying reason is the "window regul~tion."
Then, the role played by "window operation" in money supply control becomes a
moot point.
Kanishi: Thus far, the statements of the two persons generally support Suzuki's
report. However, they have raised ques~ions regarding each of the five factors.
_ In ~eneral, I also believe that maney supply control has been comparatively
successful in Japan. Let us consider why Japan was successful when various foreign
countries failed. In some countrie~, money supply itself is well controlled but
the real economy is not good, as for example, West Germany, while on the contrary,
there are countries where the money su~:ply itself is not under control. There _
are other countries where money supply is ~eing controlled but inflation is not
yet regulated. For that reason, whether or not the economy performs strongly
is not simply a matter of money supply and various other factors enter in.
(Refer to Table 2.)
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Table 2 .
Money Supply Target Amount af U,. S. and Main European Countries
(Note: Compared with previous year--y) ,
_ ~
FRG(Central Bank ;
United States~) Currency) France M) UK (M ) ~
Target Am't Target Am~ t Target Am' Tazget Am' Real
(4 Qtrs. Real (4 Qtrs. Real (Year-end Rea1 ;
Aver. Bal.; Aver. Bal.; Balance;
_ Compared Compared Compared
with prev. with prev. with prev.
year) year) year)
;
1978 6,5-9.0 8.5 8.0 11.4 12.0 12.3 8.0-12.0 10.9
1979 5.0-8.0 8.3 6.0-9.0 6.3 11.0 14.4 7.0- 11.0 11.3 I
~ (Oc t ) (Nov) '
1980 6.0-9.0 9.6 5.0-8.0(Nov) 4.7 11.0 10.5 7.0-11.0 19.2
- 1981 5.5-8.5 4.0-7.0 10.0 6.0-10.0 ;
Note: UK target amount--
1978: Mid-April 1978 - Mid-April 1979
1979: Mid-June 1579 - Mid-April 1980
1980: Mid-Feb 1980 - Mid-April 1981 ~
1981: Target amount for mid-term financial plan (Mid-April 1981 -
Mid-Apri1 1982) ~
Source: Bank of Japan's CHOSA GEPPO (Research Monthly), January 1981 issue. _
Mr Suzuki has expressed his strong opinior.s about internationalization and issuance
of government securities and on the use of interest rate functions. He has given
the impression that financial innovations would be slow. Ob3ectivelq sp,eaking,
that might be so but the use of interest rate functions and monetary liberalization
are logically headed in the same direction. On tha one hand, to say that liberali-
. zation of interest rates is fine but on the other, to criticize the establishment
of monetary funds is logically contradictory. Let ua hear first from Mr Suzuki.
Good Fortune and Policy Failure
Suzuki: First, I think that among the ob~ ective factors, there were elements of
luck and I also believe that if monetary supply control gets a good start, a
favorable cycle is born, but on the contrary, if there is a slip-up, control
becomes extremely difficult and a vicious cycle results. However, I question
whether the dampening of inflation exgectation was due to luck.
From about 1975, when Japan realized the control of money supply was important,
- the supply was rigidly tightened until inflationary expectations were quieted d~wn.
What the other countries, e.g., the United Sta:-es did was to start expansionary
policies as early as 1976, before the previous inflationary expect~tion had
dissipated. Their thinking was that since there was still a gap between the
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existing unemployment rate of 7 to 8 percent and the normal unemp.loyment rate
; (5 percent level), there would be no inflation ev~n if expansionary policies were
implemented. When the policies began to be put into effect, the unemployment raCe
had been lowered only tr, about 6 percent when a terrible inflation struck.
. I would say that money supply control became difficult bec:ause the TTnited States
erred in its policies. In other words, policy failure led to the ~�:f.c3ous cycle.
On the other hand, Japan did not depend on luck alone but plann~,d the favorable
cycle.
Secondly, in international relations, I recognize the merit of flotation and have
pointed out that one of the reasons why money supply control is successful is
because Japai~ is rather independent in its monetary policies.
Mr Rohyama does not necessarily think so. With respect to this point, I want to
stress that many of the European countries are in the European Monetary Syst~m [EMS] -
- and have to be r_oncerned with bilateral relations with other European countries. _
As a result, they call it a"float" but actually, in currency exchange, they
have a"target." In that sense, it strongly resembles a fixed rate exchange and
- makes it difficult for them to cuntrol money supply.
Japan is criticized in a number of ways from abroad but actually, it is truly
carrying out the float to the extent that it does not deserve criticisms. It
does interoene to prevent violent fluctuations in exchange rates but in the long
run, it is complying with the flotation system. Therefore, money supply control
is easy. As for the point brought up by Mr Okimmuras the bank loan is based on a -
- long-term contract. So it has implications beyond business cycles. Since that
is where it differs from market transactions, I do not think you can simply bring
up and question that point and say that behind-the-scene, there is "window guidance."
Also, Mr Kanishi's statement, hinting that innovations will occur if freely
permitted, is true as far as it goes.
However, inflation is the biggest cause for creating a:11 the financial innovations
which have swamped the United States. As inflation gers worse and the inflatian -
rate spirals, people panic to find inflation hedges. Because there were such needs,
financial innovations grew as rapidly as they did, I think.
Behind my prediction that financial innovations would not take hold in Japan or
woul.d not grow too rapidly is my assumption that there is a determination to
- prevent such inflation. What I am saying is that in a favorable business cycle, -
innovations would not grow rapidly but liberalization would advance. -
~ao Problems Lying Ahead
Kanishi: Various points have been discussed but I would like to take up the issue
of the money itself, particularly the two problems of internationalization and
government securities. Let us delve.into the problems, starting with Mr Rohyama.
Rohyama: Let us say, as a very simple case, that the Bank of Japan accepts the
thinking that control of cash currency, or more specifi~cally, high-powered noney
ties in with control of the overall money supply.
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In that case, part of the high-powered money can be actively controlled by the Bank
- of Japan through loans, loans on bills etc. There is also a part which is eupplied
because the Bank of .Japan must passively accept certain funds, such as the surplus
in �oreign exchange balance or deficit in public finance expenditures. Even in -
the latter case, when the causes increase for providing high-powered money, the
Bank of Japan must take measures to eradicate them. The 1972~-1973 problem of
excessive liquidity was due largely to surplus in foreign exchange balance. To ~
put it conversely, for the Bank of Japan, there was a limit to its method of ~
controlling high-powered money. The result was excessive liquidity.
Speaking of the probl.em of cont.rol of government securities, which are the
liabilities o� the Japanese Government, extremely large purchases of government
securities constitute a big factor in the present supply of high-powered money.
If for some reason, an inflationarq situation should arise and a stringent monetary
policy must be implemented, can the Bank of Japan aggressively sell the government
_ securities to business enterprises and actively carry out the policy of tight
money control?
Secondly, there is the problem of the flotation system. The various European
countries have "targets" in foreign exchange while the Bank of Japan is concerned
only with coping with short-term fluctuationa. The Bank of Japan is being supported
by the favorable trade balaace. Should the trade balance become exceedingly bad,
the political need would probably arise to reconsider the currency exchange
situation. If that happens, despite its determination, can the Bank of Japan carry
out its promises? This problem still remains.
Kanishi: Speaking of international implications, as mentioned previously, if only
Japan is concerned, tt~e economy is in a very healthy state but the faet is that it
is creating various problems internationally. Since only Japan is getting along
well, its international impact is necessarily large. For example, the UniCed
States might adopt the policy of attaching great importance to its money supply
and as a result, interest rates in the United States might widely fluctua.te or the
~ currency exchange rate of Japan might fluctuate violently. Such a shock is -
possible. If ineasures ars taken to prevent the money supply from being affected,
such shocks are sure to appear elsewhere, for example, by throwing the Japane~e
currency market into a turmoil.
For that reason, it is difficult to en~oy forever all the favors alone. In other
words, it was mentioned a while ago that everything is going smoothly because we -
are in a favorable cycle but for Japan only to go through a favorable cycle might
cause monetary disorder later. I feel that we should be giving some thought to .
_ that possibility.
Suzuki: First, I want to express my opinion regarding Mr Rohyama's statement.
Under ehe flotation system, high-powered ntoney is not shifted in international
payment balance. That is because if it is a clean flotation, there should be no
intervention....
Rohyama: If it is a truly clean flotation.
Suzuki: From a long-range viewpoint, even the balance of public finance payments
even out...as long as the Bank of Japan does not purchase government securities.
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Therefore, on a short-term basis, both the balance of international payments and
balance of public finance payments affect high-powered money but from a longer
viewpoint, their influence is not too great.
_ Bank of Japan's Capability to Counteract
Suzuki: The experience of 1971 was mentioned but it must not be forgotten that
the influence was great because of the fixed exchange system. As far as Bank of
Japan's measures to appropriately control high-powered money, and in turn, the
money supply is concerned, all it needs to do is to quell the disturbances of
high-powered money in short-term balances of public finance and international _
payments. I believe that the Bank of Japan is adequately equipped with the
capability to make such adjustments.
Some concern has been expressed regarding the supply of high-powered money through
buying operation of government securities but I wonder if it is founded. High-
powered money is supplied because from a long-range viewpoint, the Bank of Japan
thinks that 3.t is better to supply that much currency to promote economic growth.
The supply of that much high-powered money is consistent with appropriate control
of money supply. What measure is best to supply such high-powered money? After
all, for buying operation, government securities are the best. Therefore, there
is no need to worry that there is an excessive supply of high-powered money being
provided through buying operation of government securities.
If it desires to conduct selling operation, the Bank of Japan is fully capable of
doing so to absorb high-powered money. The reason is that since both selling and
buying operations of government securities are now conducted through bidding, it _
is free to buy or sell. That is, as long as interest rate changes are within
tolerable limits.
- It has also been pointed out that if the trade balance becomes bad, it is certain
that the currency authorities want to correct the balance by intentionally
depre~iating the yen. The Japanese trade balance is already in the black. It is
true that Japan is strong competietively in industrial production but the biggest
factor is the stability of commodity prices.
Conversely, countries which are not appropriately controlling money supplies find
their trade balances deteriorating and begin to panic. Their plight can be
explained by their money approach.
~ Rohyama: I strongly feel that Mr Suzuki's explanation was based on the assumption
that there were a clean flotation system and a free circulation market for govern-
ment securities. I cannot help but feel that the actual situation might not be
so. It has been said that as far as government securities are conc+erned, since
it is a bidding system, selling operations can be conducted whenever tightening
is necessary. In the supply of high-powered money, that the ratio of purchases
of government securities increased is, as Mr Suzuki said, a merit for the Bank of
Japan and a merit for the Ministry af Finance which issued the se~urities.
I do not think that the mutuality of profits will continue forever. I think that
- the timespan will be considerably 1ong. In contrast, Mr Suzuki is thinking in
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i
terms of a compar.atively short timespan. There is this difference but I doubt
that we can say outright that no problem remains as far as international dealings :
and government securities are concerned. ;
Su~uki: I think that Mr Rohyama is overiy concerned about goverr.~nent securitiee� ;
Political pressure will never be brought Co bear on the Bank of Japan in the ,
buying and selling operations of goverrrment securities. .
Rohyama: Is that so?
- Suzuki: Please be reassured. There will never be cases where the operations ~
would have to be conducted to support the prices of gover~ent securities.
Transactions of government securities will be purely monetary policy measures. ;
Logic and Reality
Suzuki: This is my reply to Mr Kanishi's comments, a while ago, but I believe
that what he said is true up to a certain point. There is no question that the
flotation system tends to favor certain parties. If the market expectation is not
affected, theoretically speaking, even if U.S. interest rates fluctuate violently, _
that is only reflected in the spread between spot and forward rates. The shock =
is completely absorbed there and there is no effect on money supply eontrol.
Kanishi: That is true theoretically.
Suzuki: Yes, theoretically. Actual.ly, first of all, the market expectation is
inevitably affected. As a result, there is some kind of an effect on Che currency
market. Such effects should be carefully watched and some aspects might require -
- smoothing operations. However, if viewed over a rather long period, trhen as the
theory states, the effect is reflected in the spread and the market is not affected.
If Mr Kanishi's worry comes true, the Japanese yen should depreciate considerably
because of the great difference in interest rates. If the yen depreciation cannot
be accepted, then the Bank of Japan must intervene. Logically, this would disrupt
the system of money supply control. However, in actuality, the market shows yen
appreciation. If the spread between apot and forward rates is examined, however, _
there is a vast difference.
Mr Kanishi mentioned that theoretically it was true. I want to affirm that from
a long-range viewpoint, the theory holds true.
- Okumura: Relative to internationalization, the procurement of impact loans became
comparatively easy under the new foreign currency law. The bank connection
mentioned previously becomes an obstacle here too. In reality, because a lot of
money has been borrowed from the banlc and because of close relations with the bank,
the loan cannot be fully repaid and therefore, a great amount of impact loan cannot
be obtained. Business enterprises actually want, however, to increase impact loan
as much as possible if it is chcaper. If in the future, tlie amount of fund procure- _
ment from abroad is sufficient to facilitate raising of capital by enterprises,
it might create some difficulty in the money supply control in Japan.
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For another, aside from impact loans of enterprises, if Japan offer~~ attractive
yen assets to non-residents, there is a possibility that over a medium-range period,
there might be a sudden inflow of capital as was seen during the past 1 year.
In other words, there is a popular view that as the yen tends to become an inter-
national currency, factors will appear to obstruct.the effectiveness of damestic
monetary policies. Will that happen or not? In internationalizing the German mark,
such debates were actively conducted.
Suzuki: The impact loan that was first mentioned will enter Japan since it has
been liberalized. As to whether it will upset the stability for functional currency
needs, as long as the f lotation system is rigidly followed, there should be no
effect whatsoever on the money supply even if impact loans come in. That will _
only change the credit f1ow.
Okumura: Money might not increase but the currenc~~ demand of enterprises will
begin to differ.
Suzuki: I think that such a change is possible. Th~ question is whether there
" will be a gradual change or such a drastic change in the functional needs of
currency that the situation wi11 be diffieult to handle. Developments must be
carefully watched. I think that the change will be gradual.
- As for the second question, the answer will lie in whether the business cycle _
will be favorable or unfavorab~e. As long as the performance of the Japanese
� economy is sound, there is no a~ncern over yen possessicn by foreigners. When
the performance gets bad, confv.sion will result. What has been pointed out could
happen. Therefore, efforts must be squarely placed on improving the performance
of Japanese economy. I feel ar~ though another deu?and has been imposed.
,
Financial Innovation and Challenge of Liberalizing Interest Rates
Kanishi: I wanC to go on to the subjects of financial innovation and interest
rate functions.
Okumura: A while ago, Mr Suzuki stated that drastic financial innovations erupted
in the Unite3 States because of the unusually high inflation rate. -
Suzuki: It was high and fluctuated violently.
Okumura: There might be a difference in the interpretation of innovation but when
I speak of financial innovation, I think of two types--technological innovation
through mechanization, such as the cash dispenser, and though not a physical
innovation, situations which give rise to new capital procurement methods.
The former type might emerge without any relations to inflation but does affect _
the functional demand of capital.
As for the latter type, a review of U.S. movements of the 1970's shows that, as
Mr Suzuki said, it was not necessarily induced because the inflation rate was high.
It did become popular, however, only after the inflationary rate became unmistakably
high. -
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Suzuici: That is fine if you recognize that.
Okumura: Funds shift drastically when the gap widens between the regulated inCerest
rates and the open market rates and innovation becomes popular when the inflationary
rate becomes exceedingly high. That is only natural. To say that iMnovations
are not taking ho].d in Japan because of the relatively stable rise in com~odity
prices might be somewhat misleading. Many banks and stock firms are already
thinking concretely that they want to raise such new monetary funds. However,
th~t is prevented by law. The reason is that it would bring sudden shifts in
capital and the orderliness of the monetary market would be disrupted. In other
words, I think innovations will occur if permitted but they are being suppressed.
When liberalization progresses, competition among monetary institutions becomes
intense. In that situation, to prevent the introduction of~new funds and new
monetary services is a form of contradiction as Mr Ka.nishi has pointed out.
Especially, in the next 4 or 5 years, I wish to see an aggressive attitude on the
part of the authorities concerned to i~i,troduce new monetary capital.
Rohyama: Financial innovation, itself, is a historical trend and I think that it
is a natural ter.d~;~cy in e~~.~omic davelopment. Therefore, corresponding to the
extent of liberalization, technolog,ical renovs~t:~ons are lilcely to occur in different
places. I think that that is a nat.ural d~velopment in private economic enterprises.
The problem lies in the manner of it:s introduction and development. The big
question ahead is how to stimulate G~~11-balanced financial innovations. To speak
abruptly, depending on how that is dane, the method of money supply control must
also be altered. In that sense, regulations and guidance of the past should be
abolished so as to aptly stimulate fi~ancial innovations and eliminate monetary
policy measures and methods which fail to cope flexibly with the changing situati.un.
Otherwise, the control of money supply must be carried out at great sacrifices or
- while innovations progress in different ways, money supply control will begin to
- falter.
Okumura: When considering innovations, the most important point is not how high
the rate of inflation is expected to go, but the difference between the presently
regulated interest rate and what the interest rate would be if there were a free
market. From that viewpoint, it would not be strange if the innovations which
took place in the early half of the 1970's in the United States should occur in
Japan. There is that much differance between regulated and open market rates.
Being close to the market, I would like to encourage innovations but for reasons
completely other than whether they would or would not disrupt Che effectiveness
of money supply control. It is conceivable that, as a result, money supply control
might suffer.
Shock ~f Postal Savings
Suzuki: I also acknowledge that financial innovation is progressing in Japan.
The average balance of bank notes is about 3 percent as compared with the previous
year. However, no one suspects tliat the nominal consumption rate has increased by
only 3 percent. That is a clear indication that financial innovation has advanced~
to the extent that functional demand for cash has shifted and the innovation is
expected to keep spreading.
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What is to be feared is a sudden change. A gradual financial innovation is not _
too worrisome from the standpoint of money supply control. However, if inflation
_ sets in and the inflationary rate is accelerated, the innovation might spread at
an unexpected tempo. This is the worst situation for money supply control.
Therefore, of the five factors supporting Japan's money supply control, T venturp _
to say that I am most concerned about the fourth factor of financial innovation.
_ Recently, bank deposits shifted at an alarming rate to postal savings. One reason
- is that up to 3 millior. yen is tax exempt in postal savings and in civilian _
financial institutions. Up to 3 aillion yen is also tax exempt for government
securit_ies, for a total of 9 million yen. Presently, the average monetary holdings
per household in Japan if 4 million yen. Generally, the trend in household savings
is to put one-third in postal savings, one-third in civilian financial institutions
and one-third in government securities. Thus, of the [excessive deposits] such
as household savings which flow into the [excessive investment capital] of enter-
prises and public works, about half flow in via postal savings and half via civilian
financial institutions. That is a serious matter for money supply control.
It is necessary to correct the present system immediately and to detertnine interest
rates for civilian financial instituCions as well as postal savings according to
the same rules based on the market. The tax system is also questionabie on that
point. Therefore, I am not optimistic about financial innovations.
Okwnura: Until now, it was thought that even in the United States, households
were not too sensltive about interest rates but it has become noticeable in the
past year or two that households in the upper-third income bracket are shifting
their money here and there. This increased responsiveness to interest rates
started to become rather noticeable in Japan from about last year.
To cite a concrete example, mediwn-term government security funds were started
early last year, which created strong interest among individuals, and a sum of
230 billion yen was acc~ulated by the end of last year. Actually, it wa5 decided
not to give much publicity and ttie operation was carried out without fanfare, _
yet, the results were surprisingly good. Postal savings are very much in the news
now but interest in stocks is also increasing. Perhaps, it would be correct to
~udge that the people's sensitivity to interest rates is gradually increasing in
Japan and that the foundation is being laid for financial innovations.
Rohyama: Factors supporting financial innovations have technical problems as
well as operational problems. Can the existing Y,anks, stock brokerage firms and
business agencies engaged in financial operations all carry out the innovations?
To put it simply, can banks or stock brokerage f irms which lost customers or could
not respond Co their needs because they could not successfully ride the tide of
innovations ef�ectively implement money tightening policy if called upon to do so? -
The policy to tighten money supply would be a little too late. There is that
- danger.
Therefore, isn't it necessary to aggressively induce techaical renovations when
money supply control is proceeding smoothly and the conditions supporting it are
favorable? .
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Weak Points of "Window Guidance"
Okumura: In order to have interest rate liberalization successfully penetrate
the Financial world, capital procurement and management should be responsive to
coeC return. In actuality, however, past relationships with banks are regarded
as very important and only a small portion of the capital is obtained and used
in response to cost return. If the latter typ~ of capital can be called "hot" ;
money, then the former type of "cold" money is overwhelmingly large.
Banks are always concerned with the ranking of deposits, ranking of loans, etc.
They operate by [static] principles. They also demand that business enterprises
operate accordingly. Thus, though a f irm might be dealing with three banks, the
one in charge of company finances cannot make the decision to cut off one bank. ;
This practice is closely tied in with the lifetime emplopment system of Japan ~
- (laughter). , ~
The Bank of Japan's '�window guidance" is believed to be influential [but does not ;
completely control the market). Even so, it would be improper if it takes into
consideration the bank's ranking when determining the amount of loan to increase. '
It should rather determine the loan amount on the basis of economic rationality.
Rohyama: It is a fact that "window guidance" is closely related to the bank's
cartel-like characteristics which ean be termed as [fixed consciousness]. In ,
advancing market opexations, such fixed consciousness becomes an obst~cle.
Suzuki: A while ago, I said that the relations between a customer and a bank is ,
a long-term contract. The reason is that for a business enterprise to continue
operating, it is advantageous fe�r it to have maintained years and years of friendly
relations witn the bank. Because of that, it is not correct to think that the bank
is proudly suppressing the enterprises or that business relations are irrational, ~
simply because the two parties are on very close terms. ~
The money given out through "window guidance" is set and limited to appropriately
control money supply.
However, when it comes to determining how much money to give to which bank, the
problem of rational financial distribution arises and if anyone has the answer,
I would like to hear it (laughter). No matter how it's done, the basis is the
"amount." In the past, it was done mainly on the basis of deposit amount but that
becomes yua.ntitative competition and the staCic th3nking will not be corrected.
Recently, various angles are being considered such as the earning power, capitar
position, etc.
t11so, another weak point of "window guidance" is that even if "window guidance"
is stopped because the period of tightening money control has ended, banks still
anticipate that at some later time, it will be reinstated and that the basis of
loan would again be the deposit amount. Therefore, they rush to try to increase
the deposit amount. An odd unfavorable cycle such as that results. Logically,
"window guidance" is clearly opposed to interest rate liberalization and some
might say that it should be stopped but actually, it is effective in speelding
up supply control and is liable to be used.
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Kanishi: Things cannot be done according to theory even from a long-range view- �
~ point (laughter).
Asseaement of the Low Level of 7 Percent
Kanishi: I think the conclusion has been reached that money supply control has
been comparatively successful in Japan. ~ven so, if the exp�ctation of inflationary
raCe changes, the demand function for currency might also change considerably.
The demand function for currency might unexpectedly shift drastically depending
on the changes in regulations and system. These problems have been pointed out
on a number of occasions.
Next, I would like to hear your impressions regarding recent trends. First, the
growth of money supply has declined to the 7 p ercent level. This development might
- be due to the reckless decrease of cash currency, which was mentioned earlier,
or the influence of postal savings. The M+ CD which had been stabilized at
11-12 percent has dropped r,ow to the 7 percent level. As a monetary problem, how
would you assess it, in terms of regulation and structural changes, Also, how would -
you assess it in relation to the economic growth rate and business condition?
The problem remains of assessing its relations with future monetary policies.
- Rohyama: That the increase rate of money supply has slowed down recently to this
- extent is of great concern in some quarters. There are opinions, like those of
Nishiyama (Chiaki) of Rikkyo University, that if this trend follows classic cases,
recession will result. That opinion seems womewhat exaggerated in that it considers
money fixed as M. The matter should be considered from a broader perspective.
Regardless, it can be said that the control me thod tends to decrease money supply.
What the ultimate effects will be, I myself have difficulty in j udging, but one
thing can be said. If that brings deflation and conversely if some form of policy
must be formulated to aggressively stimulate the economy, there is a possibility -
that other problems might arise. That is, excessive liquidity was controlled and
the anticipated inflation spiral was suppressed because there were certain basic
characteristics, such as wage flexibility and increasing productivity rate which
supported the Japanese economy. ~
If the money supply control becomes excessive and causes recession, it is possible =
that the other good aspects of the economy might be destroyed. Adverse conditions
brought about in that manner will probably create serious problems over a long
period. Consideration must be given, not simp ly to the question of business
condition, but to preserving the special structural characteristics which are
supporting the good aspects of present day Japanese economy.
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Table 3
Transition of the Average Balance of M2 + CD in 1980
January 10.6
February 10.8
March 10.6
April 10.4
May 10.3
June 9.6
July 8.8
August 8.3
Sep tember 8.0
October 7.6
' November 7.9
December 7.8
The Wavering Tacit Assumption
Okumura: I believe that the slowdown in the recent growth rate of money supply
is due largely to the slowing demand for currency or money supply by business
enterprises. Then, the question is whether the low increase rate of currency is
making it difficult for business enterprises to raise capital. By the way,
comparing the [liquidity ratio on hand] with the [indicaCor to determine r'aising
of capital] for about the past 10 years, the dissociation between the two becomes
highly noticeable from about 1976-1977. From about 1976-1977, the liquidity ratio
on hand has not risen and instead, has dropped recently but there has been no
pressing demand to raise capital. Then, the [pressure of monetaa-y calculation]
vis-a-vis [real product calculation] has lessened. I think that such structural
changes have been reflected.
The interest rate liberalization is showing some effect and for business enterprises,
"return" and "costs" have become apparent when conducting monetary transactions.
In that case, the selection of real product assets and monetary capital can be
done rather logically and ~f excess capital is available, it can be used to repay
some of the debts so that unnecessary money need not be kept as in the past. I
think that in marginal cases, such actions are being carried out.
Another point is that in the procurement of capital, enterprises need not rely
only on bank loans as heretofore but have diversified means such as through
repurchase agreements, impact loans from abroad, loan from foreign banks or sale
a of private bonds to OPEC buyers. Until now, practically the only method was bank
loans so even if funds were not necessary, cash was kept as reserve but that
necessity seems to have somewhat declined at present. This has "compressed"
monetary calculations.
If the slowdown in the incraase of money supply is largely due to such structural
change~, full consideration mu~t be given to them when stimulative policies
become necessary in the future.
Kanishi: The reasons that Mr Okumura gave for the recent ~ecrease of money supply
appears to be reasonable but at the same time, if currency demand changes so much
that a drop from 12 to 7 percent is not considered unusual, then the control of
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money supply becomes extremely difficult. Considering money supply as important
was regarded as a good policy bec-use there was a tacit assumption that money
supply should be retained in a stabilized state. The argument as to whether it
should be M or M3 is not a desirable development in the policy of attaching
importance ~o money supp2y.
Another opinion I have is that one af the reasons for the drop to 7 percent '_evel
is the inf luence that interest rate expectation is exerting in various ways.
Since interest rate expectation can create big changes in currency demand, it is
possible that the result would be the addition of another complicated factor in
money supply manipulation. In other words, if the demand functic,n for currency
changes so much, money supply might be controlled hut it is doubtful whether a
good performance can be guaranteed.
The First Error in Predictions
Suzuki: Since July 1978, the Bank of Japan has announced its prediction, at the
start of each fourth quarter, the money supply for that particular quarter.
Generally, the prediction has been correct. However, in the July-September term
= of last year, for the first time, the actua3. figure fell far below our prediction.
Presently, it is the 7 percent level. When ad~usted seasonally, lasC year's
July-September period was the dullest as compared with the previous quarter.
During the October-December term, the growth recovered. Thus, it seems that the
decrease from the previous year has stopped. The foregoing are facts.
Next, I personally believe that as long as inflation continues, the increase rate
of money supply can drop at a very gradual tempo if it does not cause disorder.
In other words, the drop itself is alright but the problem is the manner in which
- it dropped. ~
Then, one of the reasons for the unexpected sudden drop in the July-September
quarter was the shift to postal savings. Another reason i~ that, at that point,
there developed an anticipatory.assurance over interest rates. With the expectation
that the official rate will finally be discounted, business enterprises refrained
from borrowing and decreased the liquidity ratio on hand.
It is a fact that both factors harbor problems. The problem with regard to the
shift to po stal savings has been mentioned earlier. With regard to the second
factor of anticipatory assurance over interest rates, the rates would have actually
dropped suddenly when the feeling of assurance arose, if interest rates had been
trul.y freed. However, because interest rates had been regulated, the rates did
not drop despite the anticipation. The biggest reason why the rates could not
drop was that the rates were tied in with postal savings interest rates. For
that reason, it is a very problematical development.
If you were to ask whether the present money supply had dropped so much as to
create a problem, the answer is no. I feel that it is practically at the bottom
of a certain desirable zone or very close to the permissible bottom. Therefore,
I do not think that it is a critical drop which would create a strong deflationary
imp ac t .
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Rohyama: As pointed out in the discussion today, there are many aspects of the
Japanese monetary setup which must be changed.
In money su~pply control, information which will enable a sharp distinction as to ~
whether th~ demand for money is cyclical or structural must be obtained before gny
decision is made. There isn't much concern over the recent slowdown in the growth
rate of money supply because the cuases are partly '~cnown. However, will that always
be the case? I think that considerable attention must be given to information ,
and its ~analysis. :
Suzuki: The discussion heretofore considered objective factors but I think that
the atCitude of the Bank of Japan ia very important. The Bank of Japan should be
candidly open. The Bank of Japan must make public its thinking and borrow the
ideas of the people. The Bank of Japan officials, with the president at the ,
forefront, all think so.
Kanishi: Though not a Harvey Road hypothesis, there are some things in the world
- which might not function properly simply by the theory created at Hongoku-cho,
Nihonbashi, Tokyo. Therefore, everyone should strive to mai~tain the favorable
cycle of Japanese economy. To maintain the present favorable cycle, in-depth
_ study and accurate judgment are necessary, now and hereafter, concerning changes
in monetary demand.
COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Shimbunsha 1981
9134
- CSO: 4105/145 ~
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ROBOT INDUSTRY TO GROW RAPIDLY IN 1981
, Automobile Manufacturing
_ Tokyo NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 7 Jan 81 p 10
[TextJ While the worldwide small car war is becoming more and more violent, Japan's
industrial robot manufacturers are sl~eadily developing their "worldwide automobile
strategy." With the popularization of robots among the domestic automakers as their
foothold, they are attem~ting to expand their sales all at once to the big European
an~ American manufacturers as well as to communist circles, with the focus on -
European and American manufacturers who are earnestly engaged in the development of
small cars. The top robot manufacturers of Japan--Kawasaki Heavy Industries with
its proud spot-welding robot, and Robe Stee1 Manufacturing with its painting robot--
have each made inroads on the Big Three (G.M., Ford, and Chrysler) of the United
States, while in related f ields such as automobile parts, Yasukawa Electric Works
and Hitachi Works have completed the groundwork. As a result, there is a strong
probability that Japanese-made robots will be more active this year on the automobile
industry stage here as well as abroad.
Since the end of last year, Kawasaki Heavy Industries has negotiated with two major .
European and American automakers one after another about matters related to
exporting its spot-welding robot, the "Kawasaki Unimate Model 6060" (multi-arm
; robot, hydraulic, multi-jointed, five-degree-of-freedom, positioning accuracy of 1 _
I mm, and weight-lifting capacity of 10 kg). A formal contract is expected to be
' signed soon through the U.S. Unimation Co., from which the technology was introduced.
The robot referred to abcve was developed by Kawasaki Heavy Industries, using as
- the basis the technelogy developed by Unimation Co. Kawasaki Heavy Industries
began accepting orders in 1978 and so far it has delivered more than 300 of this
most advanced form of robot to domestic automakers, including Toyota and Nissan.
According to the contract signed by Unimation and Kawasaki, the latter may carry
out business activities only through the window of the former outside its monopoly
area (Japan and Southeast Asia). Therefore, only six Model 6060 robots have been
exported as samples so far. The recent negotiations seem to indicate that the said
robot has been highly rated in Europe and the United States. If the negotiations
are successful, Kawasaki is expected to e~cport 200 or so robots to Unimation each
year.
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Since the first order was received from the Moscow Memorial Automobile Factory (ZIL)
~ in 1978, Kawasaki received an order in late 1979 from the Volga Automobile Factory
(VAZ) for 28 spot-weld':.b robots (approximately 100 million yen). With the
blessing of Unimation, Kawasaki will continue its efforts to expand export~ into
communist countries.
On the other hand, the top manufacturer of the painting robot, Kobe Stee1 Manu-
~ facturing, is full of zest. According to the contract signed by Kobe Steel and the
Tralfa Co. of Norway, from which the technology was introduced, Kobe Stee1 may not
export this robot anywhere except to its monopoly area (Japan, the Far East, and
Oceania). For the time being, therefore, Kobe Steel is trying to produce some
resu].ts in the communist circles which belong to the negotiable area. At the same
time, in negotiations concerning modif ication of the cooperation agreement, which
began in earnest late last year, KoY,e Stee1 is trying to ~ain domestic production
of the main body--except for the wrist--of a brand new "flexiarm robot" (electric-
hydraulic, multi-j ointed, six-degree-~f-freedom, positioning accuracy of 2 mm, and
- weight-lifting capacity of 5 kg), and a plan is being made to manufacture a ~
_ "standard madel" including main body znd the control device for export to Europe
' and America. Export of the control mechanism is expected to material ize this year.
When everything comes to a satisfactory conclusion, the possibility that a Japanese-
made painting robot will be used by European and American automakers will become
even stronger.
Robots for arc-welding of parts have a greater demand than do spot-welding robota.
The major manufacturer of this type of robot, Yasukawa Electric, last September
signed a sales cooperation agreement with the U.S. Hobart Co. Yasuka.wa Electric
has set a goal to export 50 units before the end of this year, and 100 units of
its "Motoman" (electric, multi-3ointed, f ive-degree-of-freedom, posit ioning ~
accuracy of 0.03 mm, and weight-lifting capacity of 10 kg) next yea.r. The company
has already signed a sales cooperation agreement with three European f irms (Tols
Technique Co. of Sweden, Messergrisheim Co. of West Germany, and G.K. Lincoln Co.
of England), and the number of exg!~rting.units has been raised since October of
last year, including 50 units to be exported this year. Having estab lished a
sales expansion posture in the two regions, Europe and America, Yasuka.wa Electric
is expected to show substantial results quickly in the allied field of automotive
_ parts.
Hitachi Works late last year joined for the first time in technological exports in
the capacity of robot manufacturer. Through an agreement with the U.S. Automatics
Co., Fiitachi Works will export 50 of its "process robots" (all-electr ic, multi-
jointed, fi-~e-degree-of-freedom, positioning accuracy of 0.2 mm, and weight-lifting
capacity of 10 kg) as OEM before the end of this year. Ear1y next year, Automatics
Co. will manufacture in the United States the main robot body, which will be com-
bined with a control dev ice developed by the same company and built into an arc-
welding robot and distributed in the North American region. In either case, their
activities are aimed at the needs of the automobile industry, and a greater effort
will be spent on cultivating new markets.
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The world's ma,jor automakers, who are struggling furiously for the development af
small cars, have, one after another, begun to adopt a large number of robots in
order to lower production costs and maintain high productivity. General Motors is
plar?ning to introduce 470 robor_ units by the year 1983, and similar plans are
being made by Ford, Chrysler, Volkswagen of West German~, Peugeot-Citroen of France,
and Fiat of Italy. The Nissan cars which have made inroads into the U.S. market
have decided to a3opt welding and painting robots in their U.S. plants and have
contacted the robot manufacturers concerned. This positive movement by the auto-
makers to popularize robots is expected to grow even more widespread in the future.
Therefore there is a strong probability that Japanese-made robots may plan an
important world role on the automotive industry stage (Kan~i Yonemoto, executive
directive director, Industrial Robot Manufacturing Society of Japan).
COPYRIGHT: Nikkan Kogyo Simbunsha 1981
International Standardization
' Tokyo NIKKAN KOGRO SHIMBUNf in Japanese 12 Jan 81 p 12
[Text] As Japanese industrial robots win high appraisal, a movement to unify world-
wide standards for robots, or an international standardization movement, is gaining
momentum. Standards for robots are being prepared or drafted by several concerned
countries, including Japan, but the range is only partial. Therefore, tl~e Industrial
Robot Manufacturers Association of Japan (Hikoo Ando, president) is strongly urging
the International Standardization Organization (ISO) to establish a special commtttee
to deliberate on the standards for robots in order to avoid future confusion. As
' one of the advanced nations using robots, Japan is to play a leading role. In the
coming llth International Symposium of Industrial Robots (ISIR), to be held in Tokyo
this fa11, various major countries will be consulted.
As far as robot standards are concerned, Japan is an advanced nation. The "Termi-
nologies" were standardized in January 1979, "Symbols" in February 1980, and
"Characteristics Indicating Methods" in. January this year, and each was made a part
of the JIS. "Function Measurement Methods" will be standardized in the middle of
this year, and "Safety Standards" by the end of this year. There is no country
other than Japan in which standardization of robots is undertaken as a national
pro~ect, and this activity caught the attention of various Western nations in the
very early days. In addition to those standards cited above, there are many more
items that are in need of standardization, such as wiring, tubing, 3oint between
arm and wrist, and manipulator. As the range of robots becomes broader, it will
become more and more difficult to achieve cooperation (common features) among the
ma~or nations.
The purpose of the ISO (headquartered in Geneva) is to draft unif ied standards for
the entire world to help promote the international exchange of goods and labor.
Originally, a special committee, TC970SC8, was to take up matters related to the
standardization of robots. However, the committee appears to be bogged down by the
numerically controlled machine (equipment) and has practically accomplished nothing
- on robot standards. There is a great possibility that the question of international
; standardization o~ robots will surface sooner or later, in view of the trend that
robots are becoming more and more popular not only in the advanced nations but also
in communist circles and in the developiug nations. It was against this background
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that an urgent requesC was submitted by the robot manufacturers association to the
- ISO to establish a special committee as soon ae possible to work on matters related
to standardization of robots in order to achieve rationality in the international
production and utilization of robots.
- The said association has already establiehed, as part of its technical committees, ~
an "ISO Original Draft Preparation Special Committee" (Chairman Kensuke Hasegawa, a
professor at Tokyo Industrial University), and the committee has already started
preparing the original draft on the technologies and symbols of robots. This work
wi1L soon be finished, and the work will be presented to the ISO busineso bureau
to be used as a foothold toward the international s~andardization of robots. Japan
is prepared, if necessary, to serve in the capacity of a manager in order to push
this matter forward.
On the other hand, during the 3-day International Symposium of Industrial Robots
- to be held on 7-9 October at the assembly hall of the Japanese Federation of
Economic Organizations, in addition to the presentation of research papers, the
question of international standardization will be raised anew in the meeting of
~ the coordinators representing various nations. The ISIR is an international sympoaium
in which the newest developments related to robots are reported by the various
research groups, organizations, and enterprises. Japan has hosted this symposium
4 years in a row. More than 120 applications to present papers at the symposium
have been received so far. The desire by every nation to participate has never
been so high, and it is quite fitting and proper to promote international stan- '
dardization, which is so closely related to the orderly worldwide development of
the robot industry, at a meeting for internati~nal exchange.
COPYRIGHT: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbunsha 1981
Future Trends
Tokyo NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 24 Jan 81 p 4
[Text] The demand on industrial robots is increasing very rapidly today. Total
robot production last year, which was coined "the first year of robot," reached
approximately 22,000 units, amounting to approximately 62 billion yen. The number
of units and the monetary value of robots produced last year were each approximately
50 percent over that of the previous year. To learn more about the situation in
the "second year of robot," Hikoo Ando, president of the Industrial Robot Manu-
facturers Association of Japan and vice president of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, was
visited. Here are what he had to say about the trends in technology, production,
and the demand. (Reporter Hirano questioaing):
Q. The growth rate over the past several years has been 40-50 percent annually.
How big will the market be this year?
A. At the present rate, it may reach 100 billion yen this year. However, robots
are getting more ar.d more sophisticated, so that the number of robots produced will
not grow as fast as the3r nonetary value.
Q. Is it safe to say that the robot industry has now completely "taken off?"
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A. Yea, I think so. The Manufacturers ".ssociat3on assembled a"long-range fore-
cast of demand on industrial robots" last spring. According to this pro~ection,
the demand w3.11 reach 290 billion yen by 1985, but the demand is actually growing
aC a much faster pace. Accord~,ng to an estimate, 900,000 workQrs in the secondary
industries will become unnecessary in the next 5 years. If the work done by
50,000 workers is done by robots each qear, it means, by a simple calculation, a
demand of 500 billion yen a year. I believe that the time wi11 come when robots
will be mass-produced, 3ust as automobiles are today.
Q. All robot makers are said to have suffered from red ink in the past, but the
prospect of making ends meet has improved signif icantly today.
A. Rawasaki Heavy Industries was able to go into the black 2 years ago, when a
monthly pxoduction of 15 units was .eached. We were able to make a prof it rapidly
thereafter, once we surpassed this production scale. Although a monthly production
of 50 units today is s*_ill small in scale, it has grown into a high-prof it department.
Several years ago, only the research and development expenditures accumulated, and
the industry was in a poor state. Compared with this, we feel as if we are living
in a different world today.
Q. Advanced robots used to be confined mainly to spot-~welding robots. But the
need for arc-welding robots and painting robots has grown rapidly in receat years.
What are some other fields of application that may open up in the future?
A. To be sure, the demand fo- spot-welding robots has dulled somewhat. Production
of robots for arc-welding and painting will certainly increase. Other special-
purpose robots such as those that may be used in construction, civil engineering ~
pro~ ects, maintenance and repair of auclear furnaces, and robots to take care of
patients will no doubt increase in number in the future. However, the robots used
in these f ields of application are in need of a sensor equivalent to the human eye.
With a sensor as described above, a microcomputer will be needed to process the
information gathered by this sensor. More and more microcomputers will be used in
future robots. The demands made on robots by industrial application is gradually
shifting from the materials-handling robots of rPlatively simple construction to
intelligent robots of much more complex structure.
_ Q. There was a small robot boom in the West lately. In the United States, the
top magazines such as BUSIrESS WEER and TIME printed special issues featuring
robots, while in France, the book "Challenge of the World" by J.J. Servan-Schreiber
took up Japanese robots extensively. In either case, it was pointed out that
Japanese-made robots are a threat to Western enterprises. Is it really so?
A. I cannot follow the Shreiber argument. The fact that Japanese robots have _
caught the attention of the world was fine, but the one-sided emphasis of the
situation was too bad. This ought to be an age of international cooperation. It
is quite obvious that trade frictions will be unavoidable if Japan exports a large
number of robots to the Western countries. But in fact, with the yen ~t its high,
it will be impossible to export too many robots. We must first of all dispel the
m3sunderstandings held overseas. With this in mind, an "International Symposium of
Industrial Robots" will be held in Japan in October this year. We would like to
take advantage of every available opportunity to exchange information actively with ~
our overseas colleagues.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1981
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Technological Developments
Tokyo NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 30 Jan 81 pp 12-13
~
(Article by Sachio Hasegawa, Professor of Waseda Univereity: "Current and Future
Te chno lo gy" ] ;
[Text] The tempo of the technological development of industrial robots is. very fast. ,
According to an investigation carried out by the Industrial Robot Manufacturers
Association of Japan, the demand today is centered around the sequence robots, whose
production costs and volume are quite f ixed. However, technologically more advanced
playback robots such as spot-welding robots are growing in number, and numerically
controlled intelligent robots are expected to become very popular in the future.
The industrial robot manufacturers of Japan, approximately 140 in number, are
burning with the desire to develop a technology which combines electronics and .
ma chinery, and to develop various types of sensors in order to produce more advanced
robots such as intelligent robots.
Introduction
Several dozen inspecting parties have visited Japan since last year, dispatched by
the advanced Western nations to look into the secret behind the strength of Japan's
manufacturing industry.
A special feature program entitled "If Japan Can, Why Ca.n't the Uaited States?" was
~ broadcast all over the United States last summer by NBC, and it received a great
response in the United States. A portion of the program was also introduced to
Japan. The history of Japan's manufacturing industry after the war and its success
irz raising its productivity and the quality of its product was rated embarrassingly
high.
Positive introduction of industrial robots was cited as one of the specif ic reasons
for Japan's success in raising its productivity.
Ac cording to one way of thinking, it could be interpreted as a deliberate way of
making industrial robots a symbol of the driving force of Japan's industrial develop-
ment .
In fact, the number of robots manufactured annually and the number of robots in
po ssession by Japan at present surpass the sum total of those in the advanced
Western nations, so it is correct to say that Japan is the world's leading robot-
producing country.
Ac cording to a number of economists, we are at the trough of the Kondrachev
te chnological cycle today: a period of technological stagnation.
However, as far as the field of production technology is concerned, the 1980's
rril 1 meet a wave of changes resulting from the appearance of a brand-new production
method based on computer technology, such as robots, numerically controlled machine
tools, automatic transport equipment, and automatic warehouses.
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And industrial robots may constitute the m~st important trigger that will set off
, all of Chese technolugical changes.
How Robots Are Being Used
The two figures show the changes in the number and value of the industrial robots
_ manufactured in Japan and Cheir future pro3ection.
Although unconfirmed, it has been estimated that approximately 17,000 units of
robots valued at 60 billion yen were manufactured in 1980, and the cumulative number
of units has def initely surpassed 70,000.
According to an estimate made by the Industrial Robot Manufacturera Association of
Japan, robot production in the future will grow according to a geometric pattern
and will soon develop into an induatry comparable with the machine tool industry,
with a gross annual product of several hundred billion yen.
Now then, how did Japan's robot production and utilization grow so much and so fast
~ as to lead the world? Its main reason as conceived by this writer will be examined
below.
1) The high educational background of the labor force: According to this writer's
estimate, the number of research and technical personnel engaged in research and
development of industrial robots in Japan is the largest anywhere in the world.
Likewise, both the number and the quality of the technicians and workers who are
introduced to the production site to maintain and operate the robots are at a much -
higher level in Japan than in any other advanced nation. .
Some especially enthusiastic user enterprises have established robot schoals within
their own organizations. The enthusiasm with which robots have been introduced in
order to eliminate monotonous, tiresome, and dangerous operations may be considered
. an indication of the high level of the people who work atthe production sites.
2) A desire for a flexible production system: From the Nixon shock to the oil shock,
Japan's industry has repeatedly suffered from and taken great pains to overcome
_ violent changes in the economic environment. And the lesson learned from this
experience is to organize an enterprise having a constitution flexible enough to be _
able to cope with various unpredictable situations.
This way of thinking and the characteristics of individual robots are so much in
harmony that even during those deprr_ssion days immediately after the oil shock, the
investment in robots continued to increase.
3) A desire for greater productivity: Improved productivity during a high growth
period is achieved by mass production, or by increasing the volume of production.
However, improvement of producitvity today in the ~nidst of a steady growth period
must be achieved without increasing the volume of production.
Tn order to be able to do this, a measure of automation such as the use of robots
was conceived by many concerned as being an effective means of achieving the goal.
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The recent trend of investing more in rationalization of the syetem than in equip-
~ ment for the purpose of increasing production is based on the same kind of ;
reasoning.
4) The vision and courage of the entrepreneurs: The areat majority of robot m~nu~ ~
facturers in the Western nations belong to middle- and small-scale enterprises, or
so-called venture businesses, with only a very small percentage of large enterprises.
In Japan, on the other hand, every representative heavy industry, consolidated
electro-mechanical, and machinery manufacturer has become a robot manufacturer, and
jointly they strive to develop newer and better robots.
There have been many user enterprises which courageously subjected themselves to
experiment even before the effectiveness of robots was firmly established. _
The courage and magnanimity of Japan's entrepreneurs to allow such adventure within
their enterprises are the envy of those who engage in robot-related businesses in
the West. The merits of the life employment system, in which the achievements of
an executive will not be given a clear-cut evaluation on a short-term basis, can
be c learly demonstrated in this instance. .
5) A nationality in love of new things: At a certain international conference
related to robots, this writer was approached by leaders from England and France who
want ed to learn the secret of Japan's success with robots. In their efforts to
popu larize robots, they are perplexed by the paradox that you can lead a horse (user)
to water but cannot make it drink. This writer had never heard of the parallel of
their trouble in Japan.
In t he case of Japan, the horse was sufficiently thirsty, and the question was how
to 1 ead the horse to water, which is not only tasty but also good for its health in _
the long run. The nature of the problem was fundamentally different from that of the
Western nations.
Name ly, the national character of Japan itself may be described as more receptive
to and conscious of the problems requiring machines based on new concepts such as
robots.
Along this line of thought, I can positively say that it was not accidental that
Jap an should lead the world in the production and utilization of robots, because
Jap an is blessed with the necessary fundamentals which have accumulated over the
centuries.
Exp ectations Toward Robots in the Future
St imulated by Japan's success with robots, many Western nations have in the past
yea r started in earnest the development and introduction of robots.
On the eve of the arrival of a true robot age, I should like to describe the expec-
tat ions toward industrial robots in the future.
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First of all, the range of application ought to be broadened ~.o include more difficult
applications by furtl~.er improving the functional capabili::ies and the performance '
of robots. Application of robots should not be confined to the field of manufacturing
but must be expanded into the field of construction as well as primary industries in
order to achieve the labor-saving effects. In order to be able to do this, intelligent
robots with sensors, hybrid robots which can be controlled either automatic or
manually, and robots capable of moving around must be developed.
Secondly, better applications of robots to further demonstrat~ the characteristics
of robots must be researched and developed. Many ways of making good use of the -
merits of robots can be thought of, including the improvement of product quality
_ from stabilized operation, and improvement of the general productivity of a factory
from nonstop operation day and night.
Finally, we must conduct studies in earnest concerning labor welfare and the social
assessment of a mixed man-robot system. In order to ensure.that only the good
effects will come from the popularization of robots, we must assemble research -
organizations consisting of specialists from the fields of sociology, economics, and
psychology in addition to robot specialists, and we must study the matter exten-
sively.
525 '
, ' 290~ '
~ .
55 ~.8 ~ 60.0 . '
Sp . ~ ' ' ~ � . ' .
60 .
� 15 ~ ' i ~ . ~ : ~2.4
~2~ #Eltti~ ~Z'3 ~
~ ao ~ ~3)~~
;,(1~5 ~ ; ~ : ~ ~ ; i
. ~ 30 3t.2 ; + a 30 ' , ~ 21.3
~ x 21~6
. x25 13.6 ' .
20 .
...20 ~ ^ ' U.I
~ 16./ . . I1.111.1
~1 ~5 , . "~"It~S'�'f~`!. ~U ~ 6.9. ' I "
" , 12.0 � ~.9
' 10 ~ 7.8 ?.2A.6 ~ , O.i S :
5 2.73.65.7 ~.2/.4 ' . '
' 0 0.20.6r.. I.]I.7Z� ~9686970l 17 7J7115767i)8 19 80 95 90
\ ~ ( f(~7M1~~� ~
196869 70 y' 13 1d 75 78 77 78 79 ' a ~q~~
~W~ i n 11R#i@lib : H*~~~oir�i hS~$1 ~ C
~F~fiA91k' O~M'Y F~'~~'6'Rt i ~.1~ . '
Key: (1) x 1,000 units (8) Monetary value of industrial robots
(2) Cumulative value produced a~ually by year
(3) x billion yen (9) Source; Industrial Robot Manufacturers
(4) Year Association of Japan
(5) Exp ected
(6) Predicted
(7) Number of industrial robots produced annually, by year
Let us briefly observe the present status and the future trend of demand on industrial
robots according to the type of application. "The long-range demand forecast" com-
piled by the Industrial Robot Manufacturers Association of Japan last year will be
used as our main source of reference.
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First of all, the present status...Applications of robots tnay be divided roughly
into two categories: general operations and special operations. General operations
may be further subdivided i~ito 1) casting, 2) diecasting, 3) resin molding, 4) heat-
treatment, 5) forging, 6) pressing, 7) arc-welding, 8) spot-welding, 9) painting,
10) plating, 11) machining and polishing, 12) assembling, 13) loading-unloadirig~
14) inspectior.-measurement, and 15) other; while special operations may be further
subdivided into 1) submarine operations, 2) nuclear power, and 3) other.
The [value of] total actual robot shipments made during the 1979 calendar year was
38 billion yen. Of this figure, machining and.polishing robots occupied the top ,
place, amounting to 6.129 billion yen or 16 percent of total shipments; followed by
the resin-molding robots, 6 billion yen; assembling robots, 5.6 billion yen;
pressing robots, 5.2 billion yen; spot-welding robots, 4.3 billion yen; other, 3.1
bi?.lion yen; arc-welding robots, 1.9 billion yen; diecasting robots, 1.4 billion
yen; loading-unloading robots, 1.1 billion yen; and painting robots, 800 million
yen.
Characteristically machining and polishing robots were demanded largely by the
automakers, and the greater majority of the models belonged to fixed-variable
sequence type. The demand for the resin-molding robots, which occupied second
place, increased significantly compared with the first half. Nearly 70 percent of
the resin-molding robots were taken by the plastic processing machinery industry,
which is in a very satisfactory condition today. Besides these, the assembling
robots were taken mainly by the electric machinery and the automotive industries,
while the spot-welding robots and the arc-welding robots increased r3pidly in
number, centered around the automotive industry.
The playback type spot- and arc-welding robots in particular have shown the
largest growth; e.g., spot-welding robots increased more than 500 million yen during
the f irst half, while arc-welding robots increased more than 800 million yen all
at once. This proves how good a growth stock arc-welding robots are. Although
they failed to make the top 10 list of 1979, inspection-measurement robots, including
intelligent robots, reached 5.6 billion yen, which amounted to a nore than twofold
~ growth compared with the first half. This was quite noteworthy.
At this point, let us arrange various typea of robots according to their different
applications. Robots may be divided into the following categories: 1) Manual
manipulator, which is remotely controlled and operated by man (handling heavy
objects and dangerous ebjects); 2) Fixed and variable sequence robots, which repeat
a sequence of preset operations; 3) Playback robots, which, once taught, can store
the sequence of operations in its memory and can reproduce the sequence of operations
by playing back its memory; and 4) Intelligent robots, such as numerically con-
trolled robots and robots which have the senses of sight and touch and are capable
of performing advanced operations.
The total number of robots in Japan at the end of 1979 was estimated (by Nomura
Consolidated Research Institute) to be 56,800. According to the applications,
- casting robots are mainly of the fixed sequence type, while diecasting, resin-
molding, forging, pressing, machine tool processing (machining and polishing), and
assembling robots belong mainly to the f ixed-variable sequence type. Qn the other
- hand, arc-welding and painting robots are mainly of the playback type. Approximately
80 percent of all existi.ng robots belong to the sequence type; 1:3 percent to the
manipulator type; and only 7 percent to the "advanced robot" type, including the
playback type and intelligent robots.
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Industrial robots truly became popular in Japan in 1980. An industrywide movement
to raise productivity resulted in robots being adopted in large volume, first by
the automobile industry and the electronica-electric industry, and then gradually
by the other enterprises, including medium- and small~scale enterprises. Advances
in electronics have brought a technological revolution of the control devices. This
revolution not only has improved the operation and the functional capabilities of
robots, but also has contributed significantly to lowering the price of robots (an
economic improvement) and also raised their reliability.
The government itself has also implemented various measures to promote the populari-
zation of robots. In particular, the robot lease system using Development Bank
capital (operated by the Nippon Robot Leasing) was so extensively utilized that its
contribution to the success of robot popularization far surpassed original estimates.
The year 1981 may be called the "year of rapid progress" built upon the momentum
gained in the past (Hikoo Ando, presidear of the Industrial Rob4t Manufacturers
Association of Japan). Now then, what types of robots will grow most rapidly in
the coming years?
According to the "long-range demand forecast," the demands for the three periods of
1980 (1), 1985 (2), and 1990 (3), expressed in units of 100 million yen, and the
average growth rate for the periods of 1980-85 (4) and 1985-90 (5), expressed in
percent, are as follows:
Casting: (1) 20, (2) 30-40, (3) 70-85, (4) 8.4-14.9, (5) 8.5-16.3
Diecasting: (1) 20, (2) 30-35, (3) 40-45, (4) 8.4-11.8, (5) 5.9-5.2
Resin molding: (1) 45, (2) 80-90, (3) 110-12, (4) 12.2-14.9, (5) 6.6-5.9
Heat-treatment: (1) 10, (2) 50-55, (3) SO-90, (4) 38.9-40.6, (S) 9.9-10.4
Forging: (1) 10, (2) 30-35, (3) 40-50, (4) 24.6-28.5, (5) 5.9-7.4
Metal press-shearing: (1) 30, (2) 100-110, (3) 150-165, (4) 27.2-29.7, (5) 8.4-8.4
Spot-welding: (1) 70, (2) 180-185, (3) 260-265, (4) 20.8-21.5, (5) 7.6-7.5
Arc-welding: (1) 45, (2) 200-215, (3) 350-370, (4) 34.8-36.7, (5) 11.8-11.5
Painting: (1) 30, (2) 90-95, (3) 170-175, (4) 24.6-25.9, (5) 13.6-13.0
Plating: (1) 5, (2) 20-25, (3) 40-45, (4) 32.0-38.0, (5) 14.9-12,5
Machine tool processing: (1) 140, (2) 250-290, (3) 440-480, (4) 12.3-15.7, (5) 12.0-
10.6
- Assembling: (1) 60, (2) 210-435, (3) 500-102, (4) 28.5-48.6, (5) 18.9-18.6
Inspection-measurement: (1) 30, (2) 100-200, (3) 200-500, (4) 27.2-46.1, (5) 14.9-
Zo.i
Other: (1) 100, (2) 300-330, (3) 550-590, (4) 24.6-27.0, (5) 12.9-12,3
In short, during the first 5 years until 1985, the growths of machine tool processing,
arc-welding, and assembling robots are expected to be most rapid. Inspection-
measurement robots, too, are expected to make a strong showing. By the year 1990,
the demand structure for robots will have changed significantly. In addition to
the possibility that the demand for assembling robots will reach the 100 billion yen
mark alone, inspection-measurement robots will continue high rate of growth, f~l-
lowed by machine tool processing and arc-welding robots. The growth rate of spot-
welding robots will be down to a single digit, but painting robots will keep up a
steady growth rate.
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Robot manufacturers are formulating their strategies step by step according to this
demand forecast. 'I'ake the arc-welding robot market, for example. In addition to
the early starters, such as Shinmeiwa Industry and Yasukawa Electric Works, which
have already expanded their business, newcomers such as Matsushita Business Machines
- and Mitsubishi Electric have joined representative robot manufacturers such as
Hitachi Works, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Kobe Steel, Fujigoe, Osaka Transformer,
Dainichi I~.achinery, and Toshiba Precision Machinery to pursue the arc-welding robot
market in earnest. The shortage of skilled welders and the shortage of workers in
general in the future are expected to create a greater demand for welding robots.
It will b e interesting to observe how robot manufacturers will compete with one
another on matters related to function, reliability, and price (less than 10 million
yen) .
On the other hand, assembling robots are expected to gain a foothold during the
next 5 y ears and to attain the largest market by 1990 (i.e., from the late 1980's
to the 1990's). In order to be ready for this, Fu3ido-Wagner of Japan has signed
a joint robot development agreement with Semens of West Germany, and it is exerting
i great efforts on the development of NC machine tool processing robots as a pre-
paratory stage. In addition to Hitachi, electronics-electric manufacturers are
also eagerly pursuing the field, so that the development race in this field will
be worth watching in the future. As the robots become more and more advanced in
nature, cooperation between the users and the manufacturers is expected to grow,
- also.
COPYRIGHT: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbunsha 1981
Factory Automation
Tokyo NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 30 Jan 81 p 14
[Article by Kenji Kirino, Chief Research Scientist, Industrial Economy Research
Department, Nomura Consolidated Research Institute]
[Text] "Why does man manufacture robots, and then let the machines do the work man
does? The reason is unclear." The~,e were the opening lines of "Iron Arm Atom" by
Jimushi Tezuka, written in 1951. He continued: "Following the invention of ultra-
miniature electronic computers and the development of electronic brains in 1974,
mechanical robots approximating various human faculties will be onstage by 1982."
What an amazing foresight his was.
Apart f rom the technological forecast, the capabilities of today's robots such a~
sight and judgmental ability in order to be able to recognize objects and the ability
to move around are far from comparable with the level of human faculties. Never-
theless. the number of industrial robots of various types used onthe production
lines today is estimated to be 60,000-70,000, and they are used most extensively in
zhe industrially advanced nations. The number of robots is said to be increasing
at the rate of 10,000 units a year. Of these robots, thc~se which can be categorized
as advanced robots, such as playback robots and intelligent robots, are of the
order of only several thousands today, but the demand for this type of robot is
growing at very rapid rate.
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The word "robot" was originally invented by the theatrical world to describe "a
person" swung around "like a machine." However, today's industrial robots are
creating a factory in which "machines" work "like human beings." Nev~ertheless,
apart from robots the likes of Iron Arm Atom, a factory in which machines work
like human beings, or a completely unmanned (automated) factory, is far from a
reality with today's technological standards. Human and animal faculties are so
much better in performance that they can not be easily simulated mechanically. It
is even more difficult to commoditize the human faculties and performances using
the economic value standard.
To say nothing of the somewhat distant future, when completely unmanned factories
may be realized in many areas of industry, automation of production lines is pro-
gressing steadily, with industrial robots playing the main role. With further
progress in industrial robot technology, and improvements in the economics ot the
robot investment made by the users, the growth in the 1980's is expected to be
greatly accelerated. In those industries whose main products consist of a number
of solid ob~ects assembled together, such as the mechanical industry, and in
chemical plants where the raw materials are transported and processed in reactors
and pipes, robots capable of handling solid objects, operating various machines, and
' using various types of tools to do work directly on or to process various parts become
necessary if automation is to be realized.
We have seen the limitations on automation afforded by the special purpose machines
used in a mass-production system. Therefore, general-purpose industrial robots
which can be programmed arbitrarily are taking over these automatic production
systems today. Specifically, a large number of robots have already been engaged in
a wide range of processes, including, for example, NC machine tool processing, press,
arc- and spot-welding, painting, heat-treatment, diecasting, and plastic molding.
Advances in future robot technologies, such as object recognition, sensor, soft-
grip, and software, will certainly promote other applications of robots in such
different areas as assembly and inspection.
We shall next discuss how the utilization of industrial robots is evaluated and what
some of the problem points are concerning robot utilization. Utilization of robots
is usually evaluated according to the following four points:
1) The direct laborsaving and the consequent improvement in productivity afforded
by the production system: This does not necessarily mean a completely unmanned
operation. According to how and where the robots are utilized, the human operators
whose place the robots have replaced may now be the robot instructors or the
operators in charge of several robots, or they may remain in the production system
as onsite managers. In either case, robots are used to replace human operators to
perform simple and monotonous work, or labor-intensive work, so that productivity
is raised while the process cost is lowered.
2) Improvement of the work environment: Robots are used to replace human operators
in work areas which are physically or chemically harmful to human health. For
example, workers are liberated from the fumes, light, intensive heat, and sparks
generated by the arc-welding process. Human operators are engaged in carrying out
temporary welding in preparation for the work to be done by one or two welding
robots. This mode of operati~n is fast becoming the most typical work arrangement
in the f ield.
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3) Evaluation of the versatility of the operational robot: The use of general-purpose
robots will enhance the versatility of the entire production system and lower the
investment on special-purpose robots. The versatility of general-purpose robots is ~
valued as a great advantage by users who contemplate introduction of robots into
their production lines.
For example, in the automotive industry, the utilization of general-purpose robots
is more advantageous in many cases from the viewpoint of the cost and time of
developing special-purpose machines. The needs for design change are quite frequent,
and the shape, precision, and function of the parts can be improved quite regularly.
Even if it is feasible to remodel an existing special-purpose machine to meet new
requirements, in a production line which abhors stoppage it becomes impractical to �
do so, because a production break that is long enough for the remodeling to take
place cannot in general be afforded. General-purpose robots are valued highly among
medium- and small-scale enterprises and by small businesses engaged in processing
small parts and handling a relatively small number of produr_ts, because automation
using special-purpose machines remains impractical for these industries. Industrial
robots having a certain fixed generality are said to be born as "a first measure of
automation" for that particular format of production referred to above.
4) Improvement in the process quality as a result of robotization: This is in
general true f or any one of the more common forms of autonation, and is not
necesGarily attributable exclusively to the use of robots. flowever, in the case of
robots, the production system after automation closely resembles the production
system operated by man, so that improvements, in quality and stability of operation
are more readily detectible. Many users value stability of operation as the most
:important advantage in utilizing arc-welding robots.
Besides, utilization of robots is further judged in accordance with the characteristics ~
- of a given production system, including, for example, the ease with which the operation
shift can be changed, or the prevention of explosion and damage to the equipment
from precise movements of the machine. -
On the other hand, after counting the advantages of ~ising robots, what are the
, problems ushered in by robots? At present, there is none serious enough to merit
mentioning. But, if we must choose, it is the stoppage of the entire production
system caused by robot breakdown, and the problems related to the relocation of human
operators displaced by robots. However, neither problem is considered to be too
dif f icult to solve .
The operation rate of the production system did not decrease as a result of improve-
ments in robot reliability or in the user's utilization technique. Instead, the
operation rate actually improved. Moreover, with regard to the labor problem,
according to the practice of Japan's labor-capital relationship, no worker has ever
lost his job as a result of the introduction of robots. The supply and demand of
labor in Japan today in those types of occupations in which robots have been intro-
duced is such that it is impossible to retain enough labor by recruiting new labor
force. For example, there is a shortage of approximately 30,000 skilled workers
in the field of welding alone.
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The shortage of workers is most acutely felt by medium- and small-scale enterprises,
whose work environment tends to be inferior. Therefore, the introduction of
robots means to each individual enterprise "no~ so much to save labor in order to
reduce the number of workers as to gain new employ ees in order to increase pro-
. duction." -
Coming b~ck to the question of why does man make robots and then let the machines
do the work man does, aa far as industrial robots are concerned, an answer
materializes naturally from the users' viewpoint of evaluating the robots. As
long as people, especially young people, are uninterested in becoming skilled
manual workers who woYk in a relatively inferior work environment, as encountered
in the foundry, forging, heat-treatment, and welding, and as long as there exists
an imbalance between supply and demand in those areas of industry as compared with
the intellectual and service types of occupation, industrial robots will be needed
_ to fill t'._e gap. Moreover, industrial robots may also be introduced to the pro-
ductian lines in order to be able ta meet the increased demand for goods.
Inaprovement of quality and productivity through automation or unmanned operations
wi11 no doubt remain an important problem for enterprise management in the 1980's,
together with the problems related to the development of new technology and new
p roducts.
COPYRIGHT: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbunsha 1981
Robots That Are Available
Tokyo NIKKAN KOGYO SHII~iBUN in Japanese 30 Jan 81 p 15
[Article; "An Introduction to the Various Products and Technologies Available To
Meet the Needs of the Users"]
[Text] Iwata Painting Equipment Industry
- The "Mitsubishi-Iwata painting robot" manufactured by the Iwata Painting Equipment
Industry has many superior features compared with conventional robots. It is
capable of painting larger and more complicated work. Since robot performance is
affected signif icantly by the method of teaching, this robot is equipped with a
number of teaching formats so that the best format for teaching the robot may be
chosen according to the work and equipment involved. The teaching formats include
CP, PTP, remote control, and data program format using a microcomputer. The control
device uses digital format, and its memory medium is wire memory. Its detecting
device uses a photovoltaic shaft eacoder, so that the entire control system is
highly reliable. In addition, a data processor, a miniature wrist, and other
special features are available as options.
Osaka Transformer [Daihan Henatsu] ~
The Daihen arc-welding computer robot "Soa" has been on the market since l.ast May
and has been enj oying popularity ever since among both big and medium-small users.
This robot is a culmination of the rich arc-welding technology developed over a long
period of time by the leading specialist welding machine manufacturer, Osaka Trans-
former, and the mechanical technology developed f rom manufac~uring more than several
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thousand arc-welding jigs, combined with the newest advanced computer technology.
This robot has en~oyed a special popularity tzcause incorporated into it are many
special features that only a specialist welding machine manufacture can bestow. -
_ Moreover, as a result of mass production, its price is also coming down to a mole
- easily acressible range. One of its most important features is its unique torch
attitude control mechanism, with which a torch attitude most suitable for the work
being welded can easily be attained, just like a human wrist.
Oji Precision Machinery Industry
The heavy obj~ct handling robot, "Servo Arm," manufactured by the Oji Precision '
Macl-iinery Industry is the offspring of a good d2a1 of knowledge and the firm's
strong background in hydraulic systems. This robot is known for its reliability
and delicate maneuverability.
This robot belongs to a group called the manipulator type. Its f ield of application
typical.ly includes oper.ation in a hostile environment, such as in the treatment of
' nuclear waste material where there is danger of radioactivity, in the tiandling of
work during the forging process, in the removal of a cast from its mcld or in
cleaning sand off the cast in a foundry shop, for op~rations in front of the furnaces
in an iron works, and in the operation of various steelmaking processes exposed to '
high temperature and other dangers. This robot is best suited to replace a human
operator in an environment harmful to human health and safety. Its superior features
include the following: 1) it can handle heavy objects smoothly; 2) it is tough _
enough to be able to withstand vibrations and impacts; 3) it can withstand high _
temperature and a dusty environment; and 4) it can be remotely controlled.
Orli
With 2U years of experience in the manufacture of automatic press equipment, Orli
manufactures a variety of robots, from small automatic machines to ultralarge lines.
~ Its NC line in particul:~r has enjoyed wide popular3.ty.
Among its many products, the "PY Robot System" for secondary press ;aork is an
answer to the needs of the time for the small production of a large variety of goods.
In addition to its saf e operation and high productivity, the reliability Af its
performance and safety has been significantly improved by the adoption of a control
s}~steni using microprocessor. Surveillance equipment consisting of a color TV is
avai.lable as an option. The firm will soon make ~public its large-scale "RY Robot"
(maximum weight-lifting capacity: 30 kg; travel distance: 1,500-2y000 meters;
cycles: 20-25 per minute). A new "06 Blinking System" feed device for primary
press process work is being developed today.
Daini~t~i Mechanical Works
The "Babot," manufactured by the Dainichi Mechanical Works, possesses soft movement
capability, resembling the action of the human muscle. The characteristic that is
indispensable to an operational robot which must be able to cope with variations in
the content and range of operations--in short, adaptabi].ity--is the main theme of
this robot.
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This robot has achieved what could not be achieved in the realm of the manipulators--
a weightless state, or complete balance--so that it c:an respond to any external -
movement with a very high degree c~f sensitivity, and operate faithfuJ.ly in response efr
to the smallest external force. Because of its weightless state, it can easily
track the irregular movement of an external machine or equipment. '1'herefore, i�
the robot is used for the assembly of a machine part, the ob~ect and its counterpart
are brought together and held so as to leave room for the tightening of bolts and
nuts. The bolts are tightened with a nut-runner, and the movement of the bolts
during the tightening process is absorbed by the manipulator. These are some of
its important features.
Toei Electric Works
' The "Velconic-T," manufactured by the Toei Electric Works, is a servo system having
high-precision servo performance over the entire speed range from normal to ultralow
speed. It has had a significant impact on improving and expanding the range of
procesg capability o� both machine tools and ordinary industrial u~achinery. The
number of conventional drive systems being replaced by this servo drive system is
steadily increasing. -
The DC servo motor "Velconic-DS," another product of the Toei Electric Works, is
fasC becoming an indispensable driving source capable of faithfully executing com-
puter commands issued by production robots. There are seven low-speed machines in
, this series with a power rating in the range of 0.1-3 kW. These units are charac-
terized by their high torque, high power rating, and large allowable instantaneous
current.
Nippon Moog
Nippon Moog supplies high-performance servo valves to such areas of application as
- rolling machines, vibration testers, plastic injection molding machines, and indus-
trial vehicles. A recently developed ser~,~o valve which enjoys popularity among
users was developed with an eye to industrial robots. The main characteristics of
this new valve include the following: cheaper than conventional valves of com-
parable performance; compact, with smallex external dimensions; improvement in its
static stability resulting from a significant reduction in the neutral point shift
due to the changes in temperature and pressure; a dual-gain flowrate characteristic
which simplif~ies usage; and adjustable lap state of the spool valve to match the
objective of the robot application. ~
The "J077" series and the "J078" series of this valve, together wi*h its worldwide
service network, enjoy a great popularity among users. -
Hitachi Works ~
The Hitcahi Works pionesred the commercialization of robots cont-�olled by micro-
computers. With its unique mechanism, this type of robot enjoys popularity here
and abroad. The firm is placing emphasis on robots to be used in the fields of welding
and painting today, and these robots are as follows:
The process robot (all-electric, multiple-jointed operational robot) is microcom-
puter controlled, so that it is capable of achieving a high degree of path accuracy
and also is easily taught. It is also quite economical and is becoming very popular
in various fields centered around arc-welding.
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'I'hc arc-wetcling rol~ot "Mister Aros" uses an ultraminiature, noncontact type of
sensor as its sight to follow the welding line accurately, and the robot is easily
~ , taught to fix positions. It is also capable of carrying out continuous welding ,
aro und corners and on a curved surface.
The painting robot is also microcomputer controlled and is equipped with various
- coraputational capabilities. It can be taught by means of a remote teaching mode ;
using a simple button operation. It comes in both vertical and horizontal models.
Fuj i Electric Works
The industrial robots for mechanical processing manufactured by the Fuji Electric
Works include "electric, hand, rectangular coordinate, industrial robot," "Fuj i ~
robot," "press hand," and "unit hand, FM type." However, the most spectacular one
is the "Videosensor system," which is a robot capable of discriminating the external
app earances of objects. This is a result of Fuji~s pioneering work in the area of
visual inspection systems, considered the theme of the 1980's.
This is a unique system having an industrial TV camera as its eye and a microcomputer
xs its brain. It has stored a number of image patterns in ita memory. It is
capable of correctly identifying an ob~ect at high speed without contact with the
obj ect, by comparing the image of the object with the image pattern in its memory.
Fuj i Filter Industry
The Fuji Filter Industry has caught the attention of business circles as a specialist
filter manufacturer by showing an annual growth rate of 20-30 percent.
This firm was able to quickly build its foundation today through technical cooperation
with the Bendix Co, of the United States, which is one of the world's famous manu-
facturers of machine parts, and it has successfully developed new technologies and
created new products through technical exchanges. It has recently built a new
plant in Tochigi Prefecture containing the latest equipment, and it has launched
its filter manufacturing business into orbit.
- At present, the f irm is actively exporting its products in addition to [offering
them for] domestic consumption. As is evident from its motto--"Always develop goods
which are newer aad better than those of the competitors"--its superior technical
developing power is the driving force behind its high rate of gi�owth.
Matsushita Industrial Machinery
By concentrating its advanced electronics technology, Matsushita Industrial
, Machinery has commercialized its "Pana-Robo AW-1000," which is an industrial robot
with five-axis joint and wide range of operational capabilities suitable for arc-
welding. Its high-precision control characteristics and the ease with which it
can be operated ena~le it to cope easily with mixed production at the welding site.
Moreover, its price has dropped to 9.8 and 10 million yen, each. The robot has
five axes of rotation and is also multiple-jointed, so that it can be f lexed freely
at every joint. As a result, the robot occupies but a small amount of floorspace
and is capable of performing delicate work. The ingenious design of its arm
structure and its driving mechanism extend its reach to 20 percent more than that -
of a conventional robot, and the robot is very easy to operate.
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Within ita memory capacity of 600 steps, four different programs can be selected
arbitrarily. The robot can be taught eaeily, and various welding conditions can
be set or changed with eabp. It is further equipped with a self-diagnostic capability.
Mizuno Iron Works
The Mizuno Iron Works is a specialist manufacturer of robots for NC lathes, and
_ single-function machines. In addition to its conventional R20 series, the Model H
introduced last year is a high-gerformance robot which takes only 6-8 seconds to
change workpieces and has a positioning accuracy of +0.3 mm. It is enjoying great
popularity in industrial circles. ~
The mare recently developed and commercialized Model S occupies only 0.12 m2 of
floorspace, ~o that it does not in*_erfere with the setting operation of the lathes.
It is capable of five functions: forward and reverse, turning, up and down, bank
rotation, and wrist movements including up, dotan, and rotating. Use of electric _
drive enables it to be quite versatile, such as operation involving ~.ervo units. :
This robot can be used for center work or chuck work. It is an epoch-makin}t robot ~
which is suitable for small lot production of a large variety of goods. Patent
application has been completed, and mass production has begun.
Miyoshi Mechanical Works -
The Miyoshi Mechanical Works, which is one of the major manufacturers of universal _
joints, has commercialized a socket-type joint wlnich can be engaged or disengaged
in mere S seconds and ie enjoying great popularity. The firm recognized early a
trend in the West of transition from the pine-needle type of multiple spindle to
the block build system (BBS), and so without delay it developed this socket-type
~oint before any other firm.
The BBS enabled construction of compact multfple spindle heads and signif icantly
shortened the idle time for changing arrangements. Socket ~oints that can be
engaged and disengaged in one step are used in large quantity as a part of the
spindle drive in the BBS. Its cluster plates are easily changeable, so that signi- -
fican~. effects can also be achieved in medium- and small-scale production of a
large variety of goods. The main applications of this robot include boring _
mac:zines and drill units.
- Motoda Electronics Industry
The Motoda Electronics Industry has been engaged since 1970 in the research,
development, manufacture, and maintenance of industrial robots using electric
automatic control devices. The robots manufactured by Motoda Electronics are we11-
known for their high reliability, ease of operation, low cost, and large variety
from which to choose. According to the needs of various applications, it offers
the fo1:L~wing different types of rob~ts: 1) "Waiman" is a balancer known for ease
of operation; 2) "PL robot" is most suitable for operations involv~ng transporting,
' stacking, moving, and packaging heavy ob~ects requiring precision; 3) "Ampman" is _
for the automation of simple, repetitive operations; 4) "Full area robot" is a
robot which utilizes the whole space up to the ceiling; 5) "Line robot" is a modular
robot which can be installed without changing the existing plant layout; and 6)
"Universal robot" is for light, rep2titive operation. This robot can be moved
around and reprogrammed easily.
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Yasukawa Businesa ~
The "Motoman" which enabled Yasukawa Business to realize automation of arc-welding
is a culmination of the superior DC servo drive, NC control technology, and the
= manufacturing knowhow of Yasukawa Business, combined with every known technology
related to welding. It is an all-electric robot which displays its power especially
in the field of arc-welding.
This robot, which has five-degrees-of-freedom ~oints driven by the DC servo motor
and is capable of rotattng, raising, loweri.ng, and tilting its arm, can draw a
smooth trace in a three-dimensional space rit a maximum rate of 8 m/min, with the
result that it can also be applied to many other fields of application, such as
applying adhesive materials and constructing line systems, by combining it with
another Yasukawa product, "Motohand,�' which is used in large quanti.ty in the
automation of work transport. The main features include: 1) large reach of move-
ment in comparison to its size and the space it occupies; 2) although the PTP control
- format is employed, the CP (continuous path) movement is also possible at low speed.
Yoshida Works
The "Pocketer" robot hand for automatic lathes, developed independently by Yoshida
Works, has been very well received since it came on the market because of its
superior performance and ease of operation.
The treatment of workpieces after they are processed by automatic lathes used to be
carried out by human labor, and the work was tedious. The f irm recognized the fact
that rationalization of posttreatment of workpieces was the key to improving the
efficiency of automatic lathes, and thus it worked for many years to develop a
device to unload the workpieces automatically. The "Pocketer" is the fruit of this
effort, and it is highly valued by many users, from automotive parts manufacturers
to powerful enterprises.
The firm is actively engaged in the research and development of new products, anti-
cipating diversified demands in the future.
COPYRIGHT: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbunsha 1981
9113
_ CSO: 4105/114
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
U.S., USSR TNQUIRE ABOUT MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES MACHINE TOOLS
= Tokyo NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBUN in Japanesz 20 Apr 81 p 6
[Article: "U.S. and USSR Inquire About Purchase of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Machine Tools; GM and Ford of the U.S.; Hobbing Lathes for Efficient Manufacturing
of Drive Gears"]
[Text] Mitsubishi has disclosed that the U.S. and U.S.S.R. inquired about the
purchase of machine tools. With regard to the U.S. deal, GM and Ford inquired
about the purchase of a total of 10 hobbing lathes. The Soviet deal amounts to
2.5 billion yen and includes multi-axial automatic lathes and MC (machining
centers). The purchase order by the U.S. "Big ~ao" would renovate their plant
- and equipment to remain competitive with Japanese small car manufacturers. The
Soviet purcha~e inquiry is associated with the llth 5-year plan which started
in 1981. Mitsubishi believes that "both parties are planning to reinforce their
production plant and equipment by introducing Japanese machine tools and plan
to use them to enhance their competitive position in the world." -
USSR Plans to Import Multi-Axial Lathes Under the 5-Year Plan
_ The U.S. "Big 1~wo" inquired about the newest gear hobbing macfiine "GH250P" which
Mitsubishi exhibited last fall at the International Machine Tool Fair that was
held in Tokyo. This is a high-speed hobbing lathe for mass production of drive
gear, which broke the 30-second record for machining one set of manual trans-
mission gear. This record was coneidered very difficult to break. One of these
lathes can support the production of a single assembly line.
In the automobile industry, where the small car war is intensifying, a need is
growing for a faster gear mass production line to minimize equipment cost and '
management expenses. In past production lines, it was difficult to coardinate
the pre- and post-work processes because gear cutting took time. This required
the installment of multiple gear cutting machines, which in turn complicated the
production line. In order to solve this problem, there was a need to reduce the
gear cutting time from 40-50 seconds to less than 30 seconds. The reason why
the U.S. "Big Ztao" turned their attention to this "GA250P" is ~o improve produc-
tivity of the gear mass production line.
Mitsubishi is hopeful about the current business deal and stated that "we have
~ust received an order for one hobbing lathe GH2O1 from GM. Also this year, we
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have delivered 4 large hobbing lathes to Ford. Based on this past experience,
we will probably be able to successfully compleCe this business deal for the
GH2SOP,"
The Soviet purchase inquiry was made by STANKOIMPORI' (the All-Soviet Machine
_ Tool. Import Export Corporation). The total amounts to about 2.5 billion yen for ~
25 multi-axial automatic lathes, 5 machining centers, 2 horizontal boring lathes,
and 10 gear cutting lathes. Some of them may have been procured under the lOth
5-year plan which ended in 1981. Mitsubishi believes, however, that most of the
purchases are beirig made under the llth 5-year plan which has a goal of rehabili-
tating the Soviet economy through revitalization of economic activities and ;
improvement of prr~ductivity.
Japan's ma.chine tool industry has been closely watching trends in Soviet procure- ~
ment of machine tools to determine when procurenent under the llth 5-year plan
will start. Executive Director Shozo Shimizu of Mitsubishi stated that "this
business deal shows that the Soviets have finally started to move. Mitsubishi
has stated that they would like to negotiate the final details on the atandard ;
and the time of delivery, and hopes to successfully compl~te the deal.
- COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1981
CSO: 4105/155
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
USSR INQUIRES ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF LARGE SCALE PURCHASE OF WELDING ROBOTS
Tokyo NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 10 1~1ar 81 p 1
[Article: "Soviets Inquire About Large Scale Purchase; 180 Welding Robots for
the FF Car Production"J
[Text] The Soviet's largest passenger car factory, VAZ, has inquired about a
large scale purchase of 170-180 sp ot welding robots from Kawasaki Aeavy Industries,
Ltd. (headed by Zenji Umeda). The purchase price will be formally presented and
business negotiations will start as early as Chis week. The SovieCs have already E
made similar inquiries in West Germany and Italy, and thus there will be a tri-
angular competition for the SovieC order. The entry of Rawasaki into negotiations
- will begin the race.
_ The Soviets plan the FF (front wheel drive) car to be their next generation auto-
mobile. It is reported that the Soviets are planning to establish new production
lines in the VAZ factory by introducing the world's most advanced technologies, _
and that they are also sounding out the possibility of the transfer of FF car
technology from Japan. The current Soviet inquiry with Kawasaki concerns the
welding stations on the VAZ's production lines.
Kawasaki sold 15 Unimate Model 2600s to the Soviet truck factory, ZIL, in 1979,
and following this,~Kawasaki received last year from VAZ an order for a total of
26 Unimate Model 2600s and 6000s. Thus, Kawasaki has established a positive
business relationship with the Soviets. But because West Germany and ItAly are
strong competitors, Kawasaki regards the race to obtain the Soviet order to be _
. a very severe one.
Therefore, it is viewed that the sales price which will be pres~nted will be
considerably below 10 billion yen. . -
COPYRIGHT: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbunsha 1981
CSO: 4105/153
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ~
TAIYO, LTD. TO LAUNCH ROBOT EXPORT DRIVE TO U.S., USSR, EUROPE
- Tokyo NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 20 Apr 81 p 9 '
[~lrticle: "Taiyo, Ltd.; Industrial Robot Export Drive; Centers on the U.S., USSR
and Europe; Goal is to Quadruple the 1983 Sales"]
[Text] Taiyo, Ltd. (headed by Kimio Kitaura, located at 1-1-1 Kitaeguchi,
- Yodogawaku, Osaka, capita~ized at 200 million yen; Telephone [phone]I1) has ~
decided to launch an all-out drive to export industrial robots this fiscal year.
_ Taiyo's prospective ma~or consumers consist of the U.S.S.R., U.S. and European . -
countries. In cooperation with Mitsui & Co., Ltd., Taiyo has begun business
negotiations with the All-Soviet Automobile Industry Import Corporation and the
All-Soviet Industrial Machine Import C~rporation regarding export of automatic
assembly robots. Taiyo has also started negotiations in order to establish by
next spring sales representatives in West Germany, England, France and Sweden
following Belgium, and also in Detroit and Chicago. ;
Taiyo Began Negotiations to Establish Sales Representatives at 2 Locations in U.S.
Taiyo has set an ambi tious goal of rapidly expand3.ng exports of industrial robots
starting next fiscal year. It is planning to export 30y of its robot production,
increase the sales of its Machine System Division from the current 1.8 billion
- yen (the t~tal sales in the previous fiscal year) to 7 billion yen, or 3.8-fold
in the next 3 years in 1983. The FY 1983 total sales of the Machine System
Division is expected to increase to about 35Y (16X in the previous fiscal year)
of the entire 1983 company sales goal of 20 billion yen (10.8 billion yen in the -
previous fiscal year).
Taiyo's specialty robots consiat of automa.tic loading systems which can load,
transport and unload heavy ob~ects, automatic assembly machines for factory
effieiency, and NC robots for sealer application which were ~ointly developed
- with Toshiba Silicone at the end of last year.
Making use of the technology used in the sealer application NC robots, Taiyo is
_ planning to develop two types of cake-making NC robots, which can automatically
frost cakes. Taiyo has given up an effort to develop an exflort market for this
type of robot since Taiyo established Stalpalto Corp (Iocated at Brussels), ~
a Belgian automatic transport machine maker, as its sales representative at the '
end of 1979. The reason for this fiscal year's export drive is that "inquiries
from U.S., Europe and "J.S.S.R. about this type of robot are rapidly increasing, '
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and we have gained confidence in future export expansion" (Executive Director
Shinzo Kitaura, Chief, the Machine System Division).
In order to develop the Soviet market, Taiyo will cooperate with Mitsui & Co.,
Ltd. and hold a robot exhibit in Moscow from 19 to 23 October this year. In this
- exhibit, Taiyo will make the first public presentation of sealer application NC
robots and heavy load transport robots, and will make an effort to obtain business =
deals to sell these machine tools to the Al1-Soviet Automobile Industry Import
Corporation, the All-Soviet Industrial Machine Import Corporation, and the Al1-
Soviet Machine Tool Import Corporation. It also plans to export automatic assembly
systems for automobile factories, in which the Soviets have shown interest. -
Earlier, 3 company executives including Executive Director Kitaura visited the
U.S.S.R. for 2 weeks, and made sales presentations on tlie energy saving advantages
of automatic robot technology which can be used in truck and passenger car
factories.
In Europe, Taiyo has planned to establish sales and service offices in four more
countries, West Germany, England, France and Sweden, in addition to its current
office in Belgium. Taiyo will select one company each for these four countries
among those which are currently applying and conclude a contrate as early as next
spring. Taiyo urill sponsor a robot exhibit in Paris, France, in early December
as part of the European venture in cooperation with Mitsui ~ Co., Ltd. Beside _
Western Europe, Taiyo will also make efforts to export robots to East Europe
including Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia.
With regard to the U.S., Taiyo has succeeded in obtaining an order for one auto-
loading system for PPC assembly lines from CBM Corp (California) which is a 1oca1
manufacturing company of Canon Copiers. Taiyo will dispatch 6 engineers to CBM
on 29 April and begin installation work as well as PR activities. Taiyo will
presently focus its sales,drive in the U.S. on major automobile makers such as
GM and Ford and their parts manufacturers. Executive Director Ritaura stated,
"We want to establish sales offices in Detroit and Chicago as soon as possible."
_ COPYRIGHT: Nihon Kogyo Sk?imbunsha 1981
CSO: 4105/154 ~
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
YAMBURG PROJECT NEGOTIATING TEAM WILL VISI~ USSR ON 27 APRIL ,
Tokyo NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 23 Apr 81 p 1
[Article: "Trade Negotiating Team Will Visit USSR on 27 Apr; Large Diameter Steel '
Pipe for the Yamburg Project; 4 Steel Companies"]
[Text] According to a disclosure by the iron and steel industry on the 22nd, four
major steel pipe makers including Nippon Steel Corporation have decided that they
will proceed to negotiate a regular commercial deal to export large diameter steel
pipe for the Soviet Yamburg pro~ect. They will dispatch a working level negotiating
team as early as 27 Apr in order to sound out the Soviet negotiating position.
West Germany recently concluded a regular commercial deal with the Soviets to export
pipe because the U.S. interferred with the Yamburg deal, saying that "support of the
Yamburg pro~ect would create a national security problem." Thus, Japan ~as decided
to adopt this "West German method."
The Japanese negotiating team wi11 present the Soviets with this proposal: 1) Japan
will supply 500,000 tons of steel pipe by March 1982, 2) private banks will finance ,
this purchas:t, 3) the deal is to be made in the form of a regular commercial deal
which is inclependent of the Yamburg pra~ect. The Japanese are hopirig to export ,
500,000 tons of steel pipel this fiscal year.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Ko~o Shimbunsha Tokyo Honsha 1981
CSO: 4105/160 ~D
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