JPRS ID: 9646 JAPAN REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000300100009-8
• Release Decision: RIF
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 104
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 9
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/9646
3 April 1981
_ Japan Report
(FOUO 20/81)
~
= FBI$ FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
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NOTE
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sources are translated; those from English-language sources
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- othQr characteristics retained.
r Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets
are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text]
or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the
last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was
- processed. Where no processing indicator ?.s given, the infor-
mation was summarized or extracted.
_ Unfamiliar names rendered phoneticaliy or transliterated are
enc?ose1 in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques-
tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the
original but have been supplied as appropriate in contexC;
- Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an
item originate with the source. Times within items are as
given by source.
= T'ne content- of this publicacion in no way represent the poli-
cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government.
Y
~ COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGiTLATIONS GOVERNING OWNF.RSHIP OF
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JPRS L/9646
3 April 1981
~
JAPAN REPORT
(FOUO 20/81)
CONTENTS
POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
'YOMIURI' on Corrupt LDP Poll
(Fditorial; THE DAILY YOMIURI, 12 Mar 81)
Suzuki May Face Severe Test in WashingY.on
(MAINICHI DAI7.Y NEWS, 5 Mar 81)
Growing Pissatisfaction With Politica of 'Iiarmony' Reported
(Takehiko Takahashi; MAINICHI DATLLY NEWS, 25 Feb 81)
Opening of. Yamashita Office Attracts Attention
(Take}iiko Takahshi; MAID?ICHI DAILY NEk'S, 11 Mar 81)
IVLC Aiming at ReorgarAization of Political World
(MAINICHI DAIL'Y NEWS, 4 Mar 81)
MILITARY
Adoption of Conscription System Analyzed
(Shunsuke Saite, et al.; SHUKAN ASAHI, 20 Feb 81)
Japan Arms Sought by ASEAN Nations
(MAITTICHI DAILY NRWS, 8 Mar 81)
NP.C-Affili.nte in ROK Reportedly Producing Military Fquipment
(hiAIHIC1tI DAILY NF.WS, 2 Mar 81)
New Type-88 Mitsubishi Tank Being Developed for GSDF
(MAINICHI DAILY NEWS, 3 Mar 81)
ECONOMIC
Traders Forecast Increase in Evports
(TIiE LAILY YOMIURI, 11 Mar 81)
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1
3
5
7
9
11
18
19
21
22
[III - ASIA - 111 FOUO]
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- Japan Should Use Economic Power for Political Objectives
(THE JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 3 Mar 81)
23
MITI: Japan's Businesa Persuader
~5
(THE DAILY `IOMiURI, 9 Mar 81)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Statu s of New Technclogy in 1981 Highlighted
(NIHON KEIZAI SHIMAUN, 12 Jan 81)
28
- Major Ind.ustrialists Evaluate 1981 Budget Plans
(NII10N KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 30 Dec 80)
52
Outline of 1981 Space Development Budget Given
(KOKO JANARU, Mar 81)
63
Future Mode of Computer Export Out2ined
68
, (COMPUTOPIA, Jan 81)
Current Research Programs at Tsukuba University Discussed
_ (tdIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBl.TN, 7 Jan 81)
75
' Exper imental Rocket Launches in Summer 1981 Described
(ROCKET NEWS, Aug 80)
82
International Data Sharing Under Consideration
= (NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMSUN, 9, 20 Jan 81)
88
_ Rackground Given
- Schol.ars' View
~ Industries' View
- Gener ation System Using Snow Developed
94
(JAPAN TIMES, 10 Mai- 81)
Hita chi, G.E. To Exchange Technology
95
(JAI'AN ECONOMIC .TOllRNAL, 3 Mar 81)
- High e r Bunker Oil Spurs Making Economical Vessels
_ (JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURtJAL, 3 Mar 81)
96
Big Chemical Firms Step Up Reaearch in Biotechnology Sector
(JAPAN ECONOMIC Jni]RNAL, 3 Mar 81)
97
= New Hydrogen-Storing :111oy Developed
. (JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 3 Mar 81)
98
Restrictions on DNA Study To Be Rela:ced
(DAILY YOMIi1RI, 1 Mar 81)
99
- Briefs
100
Smallest Turbocharger Made
- b -
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
'YOMIURI' ON CORRUPT LDP POLL
'I'okyo T1-1P: DAILY Y()MlUlti in English 12 Mar 81 p 2
I liclltur.i;il.: "Corrupl LUI' 1'0ll"
- ['1'ext]
The preliminary draft of the "Tamura plan" offers
= scant hope of freeing the presidential election of the
Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) from the corruption
of money politics. '
The draft will be polished and worked into a formal
plan to revise the slection aystem by the end of the
month. However, the technical and cheap tricks in-
- corporated in the draft make it clear enough that
this is not the hoped for reform.
Unde* the Tamura plan, there will be no prelimi-
nary election when only three candidates compete for
the post, but in principle the preliminary election
will be kept. However, we do note that steps have
been taken to eliminate "ghost" party members and
to conduct a centralized election at party headquar-
, ters to check the proliferation of factions in outlying
- areas.
- Unreal, No Substance
- This is not enough. The Tamura plan is only a
pretty picture on canvass which is unreal and with-
out subatance, unless the LDP ahows determination
to carry out u truly clean election. And the past his-
tury of LDP presldential elections is not encouraging
for the future.
. When Tanzan Ishibashi, Nobusuke Kishi and Mi-
_ tsujiro Ishii vied for the LDP presidential post in
y 1956 following the conservative merger, hundreds of
millions of yen circulated. In the sb.owdown vote in
1972 bexween Kakuei Tanaka and Taeko Fukuda, bil-
lions of yen were distributed in the worst case of
money politics in the history of LDP presidential
elections.
. Syatem Reformed In 1978
_ Under the Fukuda administration, disgvst at such
behavior lFd to reform of the election syatem in 1978
- '1
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aimed at bringing xhe party election out of the dark-
ness and ir.to the open. It was thought that the
party would prc-it by expand'.ng its membership. ,
- Instead, bribery beoame rampant and widespread.
Such abuses as creating fictitious party members nam-
ed after infants or even cats with their dues being
paid by LDP factions were exposed. Fukuda went -
down in defeat proving lim.ited reform cannot over-
come the vicious factional struggles within the
party. . '
- What is appalling to the public is that with the ~
- LDP so powerful and the six opposition parties so
_ weak the 6vinner of the LDP election automaticallti
becomes prime minister. Under the circumstances, we
- believe that only by placing party elections under
_ 'the g'ublic Election Law can this evil system be cor- -
rectQd.
If this is not done, then money politics will continue
to determine who will become the prime minister of
this nation.
� COPYRIGHT: THE DAILY YOMIURI 1981
CSO: 4120
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
, SUZUKI MAY FACE SEVERE TEST
IN WASHINGTON
Tokyo MAINICHI DAILY NEWS in
English 5 Mar 81 p 1
.
jText}
Primc 111inislcr 7.enko Suzuki
7'hc Foreign Ministry, to be
is expected to face a severe lrial
sure, is having a ditficult time
in summit lalks wiUi Presidenl
liying to find oui what the U.S.
Ttnnald Heagan in Washinglon
would concretefy come up wiih
in May wil.h lhc Uniled Stales
in the forlhcoming summit
mosl likely lo press Japan lo do
mecling, tlie tirst bclwecn
something about aulos and
Suzuki, who becamc prime
de[ense.
minister last July, and Reagan,
; Suzuki is scheduled lo send
who assumed otfice in Januar;v.
- Foreign Minisler Masaynshi ]to
,lapan ships aboul 1.8 million
to the U.S. capital on March 21
vehicles to the United States,
to iAy the groundwork for the
sparking some American
Suzuki-Reagan meeting nowsel
legislators to try to curb the
- tor iY.ay 7-II.
Japnnese shipmenls to cure the �
~ Global Matlers
ailinK Amcrican auto industry.
'
,
5uzuki
s govcrnment has
Some {;overnmPnl officials
earmarked 2.4 triUion yen or
have expressed the bclief lhal
about 0.9 percent o[ the coun-
'
t.he ,Japan-IJ.S. summil talks
-
try
s ~ross national pmduct for
d
'fensc i~ the budget for tiscal
sliould involvc global maltcrs
(
],~ttl that is r~ow under debate in
ancl Ihat lhcy should nul louch
the Dici. The (igure represented
- ou such hil.iteral mal tcrs as
J;lj~.911'5 aIllOttlnl)Ilt eXpOt'15 aud
a 7.6 percent iucrease over lasl
'
defensc expcnditurc.
s defense oullay. Thc U.S.
ycar
13u1 it is also belicvrd here
Kuvernment a5ked for a 9
that the Republican ad-
percenlincrease.
ministralion, which has already
Detense Buildup
, shown a get-tough pollcy
; toward lhe Saviel Union and
Vice rorcign Dlinister Masuo
announced a policy of recon-
1'akashima mel Suzuki on Feb
slrucf.ing the U.S. econom,y, is
'
.
ZG and reportedly. recom-
ikely lo bring up defense ancl
1
mended lhat the prime minisler
i111OS�
dcscribc in his lalks wilh U.S.
~
leadcrs Japan's concept of
-
defens~, buildup in ycars beyond
-
(iscal 1982.
=
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ln his reponses to oppusition
party meinbcrs, Suzuki has
repealed lhal Japan would not
become a mililary power and
that Japan would devote ils
strength exclusively to defense.
Some Foreign Ministry ot-
ticials privalely {lave expressed
ciissatisfaction wilh the prirric
minisler's remarks, saying lhat
!hc United Slates was not
asking Japan to become a
mililary power but ratlier
poinling out lhat Japan was not
making ciforls tvilliin tlic scopc
af its own ability.
There are also thase Iit
governtnent who are inclined to
bclieve the Uniled Stlles might
ask Japan lo bear some defcuse
cost as America planned to
sirengthen its defense structure
in the Middlc East, and that
tiicrc might be a possibility ot,
the U.S. propnsing joint .)apan-
U.S. detensc uf the sea lanes
vital for crude uil lrans-
porlalion.
Some o[ficials, however,
maintain that the U.S. knows
wliat Japan can and cannol do
and thaf. Washington would not
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urgeni matlcr. ,
_ present Japan wilh any
ThethreclopU.S.carmakers
_ unrcasouabledemancf.
in Detroit last year reported
Tliey hope to win U.S. un-
deticits. Since the slump of the
_ derstanding with prop4sals that
American car industry is

consensus if thin s et
g ~
"administrative guidance."
saving yesterday
s iobs.
rough. Companies rarel
Y
-
Dying IndasEriea
stand out against the crowd,
National Consensus
pver the past two years
even though deflance may
Administrative guidance is
'
,
MM (plus the Tranaport
cost them nothing,
effective once MITI
s icleas
Ministry) has coordinated
Recently MITI has had
also become industry's. Quite
big cuts in
ener
g3'-hungry
trouble getting the motor
- how this happens often puz-
_
and bloated in'dustries
industry to listen to pleas
zles Westerners. In reaching
.
Those suffering the biggest
for restraint. Competition
- a national consensus, Japa-
cutbacks in capacity include
among car makers at home
nese industriallsts are as
aluminium smelting (32 per-
1S uninhibited. Last
year
motivated by n desire to con-
cent), tirea production (45
MIT~ broadcast a warning,
iorin as much as by the com-
percent) and
01 c
hoping to get manufactur-
mon interest they share with
,
ourse,
shipbuilding (35 percent)
ers to show some restraint
the ryovernment.
,
in exporting cars to the US.
26
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"They.'ll hear,At once they
i are persua,ded t,hey should,"
- says one top motor offlcial.
tven ao, MITI ts alowly suc-
ceeding in shalping motor
_ industry poliey-=-by, for ex-
ample, getting manufactur-
ers to set up assembiy plants
in sume oi their uiore im-
port-sensitive loreign mar-
kets.
Technology
- OPficial encouragement oY
new technology has a high
priority. MIT! has put seed
money into resesrch proj-
ects and ia trying . to start
a craze for new Tegearch.
Research lnto� microchips
for computers ld rated one
oi MITI's biggest snccesses.
It is being used aa the pat-
tern !or future g'overnment
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intervention 'iir-,,r2se~
By Marc]4; ti,~080, ~.lto'tvJng
four years of lo1nt rasearpli
by flve leadlnq; elqetconieq
companiea, 40Anea11";�flrins
were produci~g~ ` tt~tr', tztoAt
advanced Ms~ti'iory+. chips
(268 kilogramWon- myiehin@e
rivalling the:beat.of U8 kch=
nology. Abo~tr', a, 'Lhi"r.d of
the proiect's',' oost �.was� pAlti
ior by tri& g~q'vepnmetlt. ; �
At ~ist~~.tcommPutei~ '~t1a~u,
facturera were re2uctaat to
cooperate so ,closely., on ap-
plled reaearch. Hut. 'they all
feared . IBM--aad they all �
needed Ehe e#lra, re$earch
casH.
COPYRIGHT: THE DAILY YOMIURI 1981
cso: 4i2c
_ 27
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Anotfier Plan
MITI now has a ximilar
plan for optical commuritCs%
tions technology. Sceptics
think this will work less �
smoothly, because it''ie less
urgent. But a steady drone
about the importance of
optical comraunications. can
already -be, heard at MIZT,
in the ateel and transport
industrles and in the news-
papers, too.
Another Japanese indus-
trial consensus is in the
making.
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;
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
,
_ STATUS OF NEW TECHNOLOGY IN 1981 HIGHLIGHTED
Tokyo NIHON ICEIZAI SHLMBUN in Japanese 4-10, 12 Jan 81
[4 Jan.81, p 31
[Text] "Every enterprise in the pharmaceutical industry is involved in a trea-
sure hunt," observed one corporate executive in charge of research and develop-
ment. Biotechnology, principally in the area of rearranging genes, has advanced
rapidly in the past few years. Insulin and interferon produced under such a
process are, in the hands of Western pharmaceutical manufacturers, already in
the clinical testing stage, which is one step prior to commercialization. The
Japanese manufacturers, in pursuit of their Western counterparts, are competing
among themselves to create, also through gene manipulating technology, as yet
"undiscovered drugs" no manufacturer in the world has ever undertaken. A trea-
sure hunt for a post-interferon prize has thus involved Japanese corporations and
has begun to take on an international scale.
Secrecp Is Top Priority
"Recently, [Genentech?] and other companies specializing in genetzc engineering,
as well as major Western chemical and pharmaceutical corporations that lie behind
them, have been visiting us frequently," (said one executive of a pharmaceutical
concern). The Western enterprises that have outstripped Japan in the production
af interferon through the gene rearrangemetit process are now trying hard to sell
their technology in Japan.
In Japan, Toray Industries, for example, is conducting research on mass produc-
tion of interferon, not by rearranging genes but by utilizing a"cell mass-
culture technique" which aims at increased production of cells by culturing them
under laboratory conditions. The present view, however, strongly favors gene
rearrangement as the key to mass production of interferon. If so, the Japanese
enterprises must rely on importation of Western technology.
But it is said that the world's major chemical and pharmaceutical enterprises,
including Japan's leading enterprises, have already mastered the overall tech-
nology of gene rearrangement. 'rhe issue now is what to produce with this ad-
vanced basic technology. It is said that the Japanese corporations, although
they lag behind the West in interferon, could catch up where development of new
drugs in the future is concerned.
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The largest chemical company in Japan, Mitsubishi Chemical Industries, plans to
merchandise as drugs two kinds of new physiologically active substances produced
- through the application of gene rearranging technology. The causes of various
human diseases are being determined by advances made in "life science." The
existence of not only interferon but also of "substances which desCroy patho-
genic bacteria" produced by the human body has gradually become clear. If
- these substances can be mass-produced by gene rearranging technology, they can
be used as drugs. "In 5 or 6 years, we may be able to merchandise new drugs,"
says Mitsubishi Chemical.
There are those who stress secrecy in strategy, saying: "Specifically what we
will produce is absolutely confidential. If others surpass us, there goes our
business. As in the case of interferon, which is receiving a great deal of
publicity as a new miracle drug, it is said that once it becomes possible to
~ mass-produce a drug by gene technology, two or three suppliers can meet demand
worldwide. Because of this, maintaining secrecy is a must.
Contribution to Cost Reduction
Mass production of drugs such as interferon through gene rearranging technology
begins by extracting from the human body cells which produce the desired sub-
stance. Next, a portion of the genes of the cell which contains the information
, that produces the substance is resected. If that portion is then buried in bac-
, teria such as colon bacilli or yeast fungi which multiply like rats, then as much
as needed of the desired subtance can be produced. Although the entire process
appears simple, it requires tremendous time and labor to find the desired portions
from the genes and cultivate them. This is precisely why once a company succeeds
in doing this it can take a huge lead over its competitors.
Biotechnology also contributes a great deal to cost reduction for pharmaceutical
makers. For the first time iri Japan, in 2 years Mochida Pharmaceutical Co Ltd
plans to merchandise a drug for pregnancy diagnosis and other uses by using the
"cell fusion" technique. The raw material for the diagnosis drug, which can
~ detect minute quantities of hormone discharged in blood or urine, is a special
"antibody." The key to this technique lies in uniting the antibody-producing
cells of an experimental rat with the cells of a rat which has a certain type
of cancer. In such a union the number of cells would be increased during cul-
tivation. In comparison with the conventional method of extracting antibodies
from rabbit serum, the cost is said to be reduced to less than one-tenth, since
the labor and time of feeding the rabbits are eliminated.
Mitsubishi Petrochemical Company has succeeded in mass production of enzymes
' used for testing the effectiveness of new drugs by using the gene rearranging _
technology on colon bacilli. In order that new drugs can be put to actual use, -
- prior to animal experiments or clinical experiments using patients there is the task of selecting a substance that holds promise as a drug from among thousands
of candidates. This task involves duplicatiiig in a test tube a reaction similar to that of a living organism. Previously this task involved a laborious proce-� -
dure of collecting enzymes that are secreted in small quantities in hundreds of
domesticated animals. But now, thanks to this success, any amount of enzymes
can be obtained easily. "This is not a technology that directly produces `fine
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chemicals' for pharmaceuticals, but it is significant as a technology that
helps in such development." (Yo3in Ota, managing director, Mitsubishi Petro-
chemical Co Ltd)
Aside from the pharmaceuticals, the application of biotechnology is wide. One ~
of its most promising areas of application is in the manufacture of ethyl alco-
hol, which is drawing attention as a raw material for an oil alternative. "Its ;
- practical use will be realized sufficiently in 2 or 3 years." (Hiroshi Samejima., .
director, Kyowa Hakko Kogyo Co Ltd) The technology used here is called "bacillus
fixation." A cammon fermentation method used thus far has been to boil the yeast '
in a large container. In the new method, yeast fungi are locked inside agar-like +
high molecular [compounds?] and are kept alive as long as possible under fixed ~
conditions so that they will produce alcohol continuously.
The characteristic of this new method is that alcohol fermenting facilities can
be built in a limited space inexpensively. It does not appear beneficial for
Japanese corporations with already depreciated equipment expenses to employ this
technology by scrapping their present facilities, but "it will be good news for
the develop:ing nations which hope to produce fuel alcohol by using biomass.re-
- sources such as vegetation." (Mr Samejima) The ma3or trading firms in Japan
have realized this and are already beginning to seek a role as intermediary
between various countries and the manufacturer.
Technical Information Exchange
As in the example of Ajinomoto's attempt to produce amino acid more efficiently
- through the gene rearranging technology, biotechnology is not limited to produc-
tion of expensive pharmaceuticals, but has begun to permeate slowly into areas
where products are handled at kilograms per unit price. Under these circumstances,
- starting in the spring of 1981 Mitsubishi Chemical Industries and Monsanto (head-
quartered in St Louis), a major U.S. chemical maker, will hold regular annual
conferences to exchange technological information on research and development,
- including the area of life science. As seen by this example, a movement toward
_ cooperation between enterprises in the developmPnt of biotechnology has started.
There is strong awareness among corporate executives that even a large corpora-
tion might be left behind in the cut-throat competition for development of bio-
- technology if they sit idle.
But in biotechnology, a single step in the wrong direction will lead to mass pro-
- duction of harmful substances such as those classified as "bacteriological wea-
pons." For the time being those involved in biotechnology all say: "It is abso-
- lutely safe since we are working in laboratories that meet certain requirements,
such as being completely shut off from the outside world and using colon bacilli
_ whose life is weak." However, there may be a blindspot somewhere along the line
if they neglect to build a social consensus for their work; the general public ^
in Japan may react against developments in biotechnology as they once did against
petroleum (micro-organism) protein. Those involved are not without headaches in
- this account.
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[5 Jan 81, p 7]
[Text] A cubic puzzle called "rubic cube" created a boom last year. The new
extremely popular supQrlarge computers will be reduced to the size of the rubic
cube in the 1980's. We are talking about a model of the "[Josephson?] computer"
designed by Dr W. [Anacker?] of the IBM Watson Research Institute (Yorktown
Heights, New York) in the U.S.A.; the computer, a model of which will be completed -
in the near future, will fit into a cube~of only 10 cubic cm.
Technological Computation of Immense Magnitude Possible
~ In comparison with the Japanese superlarge computers in use now, the Josephson
' computer is expected to process 25 times fasCer and possess the incredible abil-
ity to handle 250 million orders per second. The main body consumes only 10 watts--
20 watts if the cAOling device is included; it therefore operates at half the
power of Japanese computers. This is because it is built of energy-saving super-
' performance Josephson [joinin.g?] elements.
IBM has successively developed logic and memory elenents using the Josephson
joining elements. By 1985 it plans to test a Josephson computer the size of a
miniature computer and by the end of the 1980's. In contrast, the Agency for
Industrial Science and Technology in Japan will start a large-scale project,
the "Super Computer Research and Development" (high speed computer system for
science and engineering.purposes). The project will begin in 1981 and continue
8 years with a total investment of 31 billion yen. The agency's Electrotechni-
cal Laboratory and the Japanest computer makers will probably join forces in the
project.
Using super high-speed elements, the "supercomputer" will attempt to achieve
a processing speed of 10 billion orders per second, a performance which is 1,000
times faster than the present superlarge computer. For the super-high-speed
, elements, which constitute the heart of the computer, Josephson foining elements,
high electronic moving transistors, and gallium-arsenic electric 'field effective
! transistors are considered hopeful candidates. As for the Josephson 3oining ele-
ments, last year Hitachi Ltd, Fijitsu Ltd, Nippon Electric Co, and Mitsubishi
_ Electric Corp started on a 3oint development under a government subsidy designed
to promote development of unexplored new technology; the Institute of Physical
, and Chemical Research is also doing research on the Josephson elements. The high
electronic moving transistors were developed by Fujitsu last year. The gallium- _
arsenic electric field effective transistors have shown excellent test results at the Musashino Electric Communication Research Center of the Nippon Telegraph
and Telephone Public Corp and at the Electrotechnical Laboratory; they have been
evaluated as superior to any transistors in terms of iriternational standards.
The reason why a"supercomputer" 1,000 times faster than existing superlarge
models is needed is because the present multipurpose computers are almost useless
for the enormous engineering computations required by scientists. For example,
in the design of an earthquake-proof skyscraper, vibration is analyzed by shaking
a model of the building, which is a long stick skewered with balls whose weights
correspond to the respective weights of the floors.
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The actual building is not one-dimensional but three-dimensional; when it comes
to analyzing a complex threE-dimensional structure, today's large-scale computer
cannot fish the calculation even if it takes a hundred years. Anyone interested
in increasing computer speed wishes: "If only the speed of light (i.e. limit of
the speed of electrons) were one digit faster."
The question of speed is not limited to earthquake-proof designs. The present s uperlarge model cannot handle the data from nuclear reactor accidents and exper-
iments in nuclear fusion, or analyze instantly the video data transmitted by re-
sources exploring satellites. Weather forecasts, earthquake predictions, fore-
casts of socioeconomic phenomena, etc will all become far more precise with the
~
" supercomputer."
Active Participation for the "Next Generation"
Parallel with the "supercomputer," a 10-year research and development for a
Sth generation computer will begin in 1931, with MITI playing the central role.
The computer elements have advanced step by step from vacuum tubes, transistors,
and integrated circuits to the super LSI; the plan aims at a new generation that
is two generations beyond the present one. The elements of such computers wi11
mo st likely be those found in the "supercomputer," i.e. Josephson joining ele-
ments; their design ideology, however, will change radically from that of the
existing multipurpose computers.
- This computer will have "eyes," "ears," and a"mouth" so that direct input and
o utput of so.unds, writing, diagrams, photographs and ima.ges will become possible;
- it will also be able to understand the spoken word and translate. In addition,
- there will be no need for complex programming and it will repair itself when it
b r.eaks down. Furthermore, it will be equipped with the ability to make associa�-
_ tioris, draw inferences, and learn; it will be a computer which most closely re-
sembles the human brain. Japanese c:,mputer makers along with governments, indus-
tries, and research institutes of Europe and America will participate in this
p roject; a study is now underway to determine a Japan-U.S.-Europe joint development.
_ Before the "supercomputer" and the fifth generation computers can be realized,
the 1980's will be the age of super LSI's. With the introduction of the super
LSI, where the limits of silicon semiconductor technology were exhausted, micro-
computers made their appearance, so that one small piece the size of a fingertip
c an now perform the task of a large computer of a generation ago. As far as
_ microcomputers are concerned, it is said that tltere is no longer any gap between
Japan and the United States.
Microcomputers are permeating every aspect of society: information, "mechatronics,"
energy, home lj.fe, medicine, education and government. In addition to microcom-
p uters, Che area of application of super LSI technology is successively expanding.
For instance, a series of new elements have already been put to practical use in
s uch products as magnetic bubble memory, solid [image] pickup elements, semicon-
ductor laser, amorphous silicon solar battery, etc. Having caught up with the
United States in the super LSI, Japan must now develop new elements independently.
A brealcthrough will come in the form of a group of "new function elements" which
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will be taken up under the "System To Reaearch and Develop Industrial Basic
Technology for the Next Generation," beginning in 1981. The system will in-
vest 31 billion yen over a period of 10 years to develop: 1) biochemical de-
tecting elements capable of detecting odor and taste; 2) supergrid elements
which emit super-high-frequency waves and a visible optical laser; 3) three-
dilmensional circuit elements which multiply and integrate elements three-
dimensionally; and 4) "environmentally strong" elements which perform stably
in radioactive rays, vibration and shock.
- Kuraray Co Ltd has already shown interest in biochemical elements, and Tokyo
, Shibaura Electric Co Ltd has the basic technology for "environmentally strong"
_ elements. It is expected, however, that in addition to electronics makers,
makers of parts and others from nonelectronics fields will participate actively
in the research and development of these "new function elements."
Elements to Coexist and Coprosper
. Overseas inquiries about 100 percent Japanese high-speed elements are pouring
in. For example, inquiries about electrostatic induction transistors invented
by Professor Junichi Nishizawa of Electrocommunications Research Institute,
Tohoku University, have beer. coming in from the Lincoln Research Institute at
MIT, which has generous U.S. Government support, and from the Microfabrication
Research Institute at Cornell University.
In order to develop "perfect crystal elements" by iin.proving the (high) speed
- and power consumption of the electrostatic induction transistors, the Science
and Technology Agency plans to adopt the development of such elements as one of -
- the themes for its "creative science technology promotion projects" that will - begin in 1981 and continue for 5 years.
In the "revolution of elements" thus far, the super LSI has played the lead.
Soon, from the latter half of the 1980's to the beginning of the 1990's, high-
speed elements such as "perfect crystal elements," super-high-speed elements
such as Josephson joining elements, and a group of new function elements will
appear. Tne "new frontier" created by these elements will expand, depending
on social needs, and holds possibilities beyond our imagination. The relation-
- ship between these new elements will be not that of one element substituting for
another, but that of coexistence and coprosperity, as, for example, the super
LSI can be used in automobiles, the Josephson joining elements and other super-
high-speed elements in 3ets and rockets. If this is the case, since any one of
these elements has almost infinite applicability, each one will grow indepen-
dently as a fundamental industry of its own and simultaneously have a tremendous
= influence on other industries.
[6 Jan 81, p 6]
[Text] It has been exactly 10 years since the "MICON" (microcomputer) appeared. -
Its special characteristics, such as its extremely small size, low cost, and
function as a"substitute for intelligence," have limitless fields of applica-
tion. When installed in home electric appliances such as microwave ovens.and -
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washing machines, it turned them into machines which require minimal human
attention; functioning as a brain of machinery and equipment at production
sites, it has also become responsible for "plant revolution." According to
R. Noyce, vice chairman of the U.S. Intel Corp and developer of microcomputetgo
"Microcomputers can be applied to 25,000 items." If this is the case, it may
be faster to look for areas where microcomputers are not in ase.
, "The 1970's was the age of application of microcomputers. In the 1980's, micro-
computers w�ill permeate throughout the nation, its social systems, culture and
individual lives, and thereby radically change the heretofore preconceived
ideas," said Prof Ryoichi Mori ot Tsukuba University 10 years ago, predicting
today's flourishing of microcomputers. "Technopolis" is the "city of the
future" which MITI is promoting extensively. MITI's aim is to realize a series
of "technosocieties" throughout Japan in the 1990's, within each of which there
would be advanced technology industries and research institutes for semiconduc-
_ tors and computers, research organs such as universities, and an environment
suitable for living, that is, a harmony between industry, learning and living.
Here again, the microcomputer is expected to display its versatility. In short,
it is an experiment for the purpose of forming "microelectronics."
Information Exchange on Television
First of all, there is a"television revolution." The major responsibility will
come from the multichannel, two-way CATV (cable TV) with which every home will
- be equipped as part of a home information network. This television has 100
= channels. In Japan, Tokyo has the largest number, seven. Some may say: "What
is the sense of having so many?" But the question is not one of numbers only.
This is a set fully loaded with video information and capable of playing multiple
roles. In addition, since it is equipped with a two-way system which enables
communication between the broadcast stations and homes, the viewer can partici-
pate in programs from his own living room simply by operating the terminal device
_ to transmit and receive.
In this system, the flow of information is not one-directional so that the viewer,
too, can supply information. In addition to programs classified under such sub-
ject categories as news, sports, movies and variety shows, the viewer can read
the newspaper on the screen and, by operating the terminal, purchase goods, make
airline reservations, and pay bills through banks. It will be the start of the
- "electronic shopping age." An "electronic voting system" which collects voters
opinions directly is iZOt a dream either.
There are expqriments to be conducted in the area of "doing without oil," such
as a public trk,,nsportation system based on electric vehicles and introduction of
a solar system. Electric vehicles would, of course, be "MICON cars." Naturally,
- microcomputers would control the engine and prevent accidents; the passenger
would simply insert his personal card into a slot in a"display" and push the -
button indicating his destination; the computer would show him the closest and _
least congested way to his destination and the vehicle would carry him there.
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A1Z aspects of home life in the "technosociety" will be taken care of by micro-
computers. The home computer, connected to information lines, will control all
the basic needs of pleasant living by preventing home accidents and burglary,
saving energy, providing household information, and planning vacations. Home
appliances with built-in MICONS are merely extensions of the "home computer."
Children would stay home from school for 2 or 3 days a week and would take les-
sons through television. Some businessmen and women would work at home, staying
in touch with an office by television and microcomputer.
Infonnation Transmitted by Optical Communications
The picture of such a future technosociety contains aspects which are all in the
forefront of the "MICON revolution" and for which experiments and development
are currently underway.
Higashi Ikoma New Town is locafied at the foot of Mt Ikoma in Nara Prefecture;
- there, a large-scale CATV experiment which is said to be the most advanced in
the world is being conducted using optical fibers. The system sponsored by the
MITI and Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications is called Hi-OVIS (High Two-
Way Video Information System) and broadcasts local information such as shopping
infiormation to about 150 households. Optical communication does not use wires
; or electric waves, but is capabl.e of transmitting the equivalent of 5,000`tele-
phone circuits at a time. This has already been put to use in this town. This
; Hi-OVIS system will be shown at the "Kobe Port Island Expo (Port Pier '81)"
which will open in Kobe in March this year; two-way CATV experiments will be con-
ducted between exhibit halls.
Hotel New Otani in Tokyo is equipped with a two-way CATV developed by Pioneer;
the system connects the broadcast center in the hotel with all the guestrooms
by cable and provides "program request serzrices" through terminal devices. An
experiment in video informa.tion service called the "CAPTAIN" is being conducted
by the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications and Nippon Telegraph and Tele-
phone Public Corp; this service provides everyday information on home television
sets through existing telephone circuits>
Within the year, a system will appear in which information from a computer cen-
ter can be transmitted to moving cars through antennas set up along the streets.
This is one of the MITI's huge projects, "Automobile Comprehensive Control Tech-
nology," which will be handed over to the Ministry of Construction and the
IVational Police Agency to provide, respectively, traffic information and traffic
signals. Since a"MICON car" is connected to the computer center through radio
waves, an increase in information services would make the car a"moving informa-
tion center." Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor, and Mitsubishi Motor have already
manufactured "MICON cars"; they are, however, shifting the focal point of the
electronics from the engine to the dashboard which can serve as "window" for re-
ceiving information.
This change is shown in Toyota Motor's "Mark II" and "Chaser" which are equipped
_ with an audio synthesizing "speak monitor" and in Nissan Motor's ["Leopard"
which is equipped with an electronic meter which shows fuel 1eve1, water temper-
ature, oil pressure and electrical voltage in bar graphs.
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Revolution in Lifestyle, Too
7.'he first home electrical appliance with a built-in MICON was the microwave oven.
- It started 4 years ago when Sharp Corp and Matsushita Electric Industry developed
it separately and began sales on a trial basis as an export item. After that,
microcomputer applied products wasted no time in invading home life so that today
we find them in use in unexpected places.
The home electrical appliance manufacturers' next target is a home computer sys-
tem which will connect these microcomputerized products into a network. Its
model has been developed by Matsushita Electric, Hitachi Ltd, and Sharp; and
Misawa Home is selling houses equipped with such a system. The technosocieties
described by MITI as a vision for the 1990's may appear throughout Japan sooner
than expected, due to unceasing progress in electronics.
However, a highly "informed" society is also a highly controlled society. It
appears that the closer the arrival of the technosociety, the stronger the voice
cautioning about its rosy future (theory); the only certain thing is that the
residents of the technosociety will be forced to reform their lifestyle.
[7 Jan 81, p 6]
[Text] "With the appearance of microcomputers, the age of machinery has ended.
Enterprises that failed to get on the bus called 'electronification' are destined
to fail." (Ernst Hoffineister, managing director in charge of research and devel-
opment, Siemens Corporation of West Germany). In concert with the "MICON revolu-
tion," a new industry called "mechaCronics " is drawing a great deal of attention.
- This is a combination of machinery and electronics. Starting with electronic
watches, the wave of electronics is vigorously advancing toward traditional
= mechanical industries, such as sewing machines, cameras, cash registers, and
scaies. Furthermore, this combination is about to open up new "frontiers" in
_ automa.tion and elimination of labor. Industrial robots and office automation (OA):
simultaneously, both in plants and offices, large-scale innovation (technolagical
revolution) through industrial robots and office automation, which represent
"mechatronics," is now under way.
60-Billion-Yen Production Last Year
_ The Toyota Motor Co Ltd, which has microcomputer-utilized robots in operation in
its plants, boasts of its production efficiency, which is already six times higher
than that of U.S. and European automakers. It is impossible to overtake Toyota
(planCs) other than by relying on new microcomputers and robots." (J:J. Servan-
Schreiber in "Challenge to the World")
,
The "Japan Corporation" is proud of its international competitive power. Western
countries have begun to notice that one of the secrets of this lies in its super-
ior automation equipment represented by robots. Western automakers, headed by
GM (General Motors), have begun to visit Japanese automakers, which lead the
field in utilization of robots. "Managing executives and engineers are taking
tours of our plants in increasing numbers "(Kaicho Kanao, executive director,
Nissan Motor Co Ltd)
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Japan owns about 75,000 units of industrial robots. This means that nearly 80
= percent of the world's robots are operating in Japanese plants. Naturally,
the robot market has grown; production has grown at the high annual rate of 50
percent in the past 2 years, and it is said that it exceeded EO bi 11ion yen
last year. "ihe 1980's is Japan's 'first year of robots'; it has b ecome prof3t-
- able as an industry." (Hikoo Anda, vice president of Kawasaki Heavy Industries
and chairman of the Industrial Robots Industry Association). With the-heighten-
ing of the trend toward indusCrial automation and elimination of labor, the
robot industry is fully expecting that the market will grow into one that wi11
handle 300 billion yen (annually) in 1985, and 600 billion yen in 1990.
- It is said that the etymology of the word "robot" is derived from the play "RUR"--
_ Rossum's UniversaZ Robot facto*�y-- written by Czech playwright Kare1 Capek. The
play, written in 1920, has an ironic ending in which man-made rob o t s(from the
_ word robota, meaning "slave labor") rebel against their human creators. The con-
cept of industrial robot was created in the early 1960's. Soon a.fter, the first
industrial robots called "Unimate" and ["Versatron"?] were produced in the United
- States.
"Intelligence Revolution in Progress"
_ In the beginning, single unit transistors were combined and incorp o rated iiito
_ the control mechanism of the robots. The control mechanism became smaller and
_ smaller as a result of technological innovations in semiconductors, from IC to
LSI (Large Scale Integrated Circuits). Today, due to microcomput er progress, .
robots have become "wiser." Robots can handle various types of works simply by
- changing the programs af the microcomputers. In addition, the cont rol system
has been further miniaturized and there is much room for large reductions in
cost.
"If the industrial revolution of the 19th century started by Watt's steam engine
was a muscle revolution, then we can say that an intelligence revo 1uCior..by
microcomputer is in progress today." (Toshiyoshi [Shirosaka?eXe cutive direc-
tor, Matsushita Electric Industrial Co Ltd)
, [The next 5 years wili be the age of audio. Every machine will b e capable of
= talking and recognizing sounds. Furthermore, if the semiconductor technology
progresses at the present pace, the machine`s intelligence will r ea ch the level
of a human's." (Ryoichi Mori, professor at Tsukuba University)
Full-scale industrial robots appeared in Japan in 1967. The following year,
Kawasaki heavy Industries established technological cooperation wi th Unimation
of the United States and began production of "Unimates." About the same time,
many corporations, beginning with Yasukawa Electric Mfg Co Ltd, Hi tachi Ltd, and
Aida Engineering, and followed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kob e Steel Ltd,
and Shin Meiwa Industries, made themselves known as robot makers.
Almost Breakdown-Free
- The first major area of application was in automobile spot welding. In those
days, "there were so many breakdowns, we were kept busy making rep airs."
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(Kanao, executive director of Nissan) Today, there are hardly any breakdowns.
Toyota Motor plans to introduce 720 robots over a 3-year period starting in
1980, and Nissan and Toyo Kogyo Co Ltd are introducing them at the rate of 100
units annually.
In addition, the demand for robots for arc welding and painting has grown. '
: From automobiles to home electric appliances and machinery, the industries
that employ robots are increasing more and more. Those engaged in the indus-
try forecast that: "Eventually, assembly robots equipped with sensor functions
such as that of sight will become the mainstream." (Katsuo Enomoto, director,
- Robot Design Center, Hitachi Ltd)
Consequently, the number of robot makers is growing rapidly. One hundred thirty
_ companies are competing fiercely to secure the market. With expanding areas of
- application and rapidly growing demand in the background, the Japanese makers
have acquired substantial strength. Altogether there are only about 80 robot
~ makers in Europe and in the United States. Because of business managers who
feel positive about technological innovation and labor unions that are capable
of coping with automation and labor reduction, it would appear that the indus-
trial environment in Japan is suited to the introduction of robots. .
The largest maker, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, will soon conclude a large volume
export contract for indastrial robots with Unimation Corporation, Kawasaki's
partner in technical cooperation. Kawasaki will supply annually 200 robots not
produced by Unimation. This will be the first large volume robot export to the
West. Also, Hitachi recently provided [Automatics?] Corp, a U.S. robot maker,
with industrial robot manufacturing technology.
The "mechatronics" revolution is taking place in "off ices" as well. This is be-
cause microcomputers have "invaded" office equipment and begun to bring 'about
accelera.tion in office automation. Microcomputers will change typewriters into
"smart terminals." Instead of typing letters on paper, one strikes the keys of
- the terminal and the message is entered into the memory device of a computer.
Paper has begun to disappear from offices. If such a terminal is installed at
home, people can work at home. Communication circuits will connect the terminal
at home with a larger computer at an office. The majority of business will be
handled in this manner in the future. The "age of work at home" is no longer
just a dream.
Ivrea is an hour and a half from Milan (Italy) by car. There, Olivetti, one of
the top office equipment makers in Europe and fauuous for its typewriters, is now
undergoing changes to become an information equipment maker. It purchased
_ 600,000 units of microcomputers last year and built them into its products.
The company expects to increase its volume of microcomputers by more than 20
percent in 1981. Its goal is "to become the NCR of Europe." (Carlo DeBenedetri,
president) America's NCR used to make cash registers, but it has now grown into
a computer maker. In Europe, the United States and in Japan, "the greatest tech-
nological revolution since the Gutenberg press" (Atsuyoshi Ouchi, president of
Nippon Electric Co Ltd) is about to change the office radically.
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[8 Jan 81, p 7]
[Text] Osaka South Port is the entrance to the Hanshin metropolitan area.
= Here, construction of a"port town" is moving at a rapid pace under the slogan
"21st Century Urb an Development." This is a giant project, involving reclama-
tion and construction of highrises in an area of approximately 1 million square
, meters, for 400 residents; the construction cost will total 200 billio:: yen.
Already some resi dents have moved into one area, but the completion of the pro-
ject is expected in 1983. It is said to be the world's largest housing develop-
ment exclusively for highrises.
21st Century Urban Devalopment
Since the construction of this "new town" aims at 21st century urban development,
it differs greatly from developments of the usual developers. The greatest fea-
_ ture lies in cons olidation of housing environment. The entire town is marked
"no-car zone," and there will be a wild bird sanctuary surrounded by deep woods,
a sports garden, a man-made beach of white sand, and a fishing park.
A new transportation system called "new tram" will connect tr,e "port town" with
downtown Osaka. For this system, a concrete path will be installed in place of
rails, and electric cars with rubber tires will run without conductors or drivers;
getting on and of f will b e entirely automatic. It is designed so that when the
number of passengers exceeds capacity, a buzzer goes off and renders the vehicle
inoperative.
Garbage will be collected automatically from homes by the "air transportation
. system." All television will be antennaless CATV (cable TV). This is because
television antennas spoil the environment aesthetically. The project differs
_ radically from th e tradit ional "bed (room) -town" developments.. Nippon Steel Corp
is responsible for part of the project. The construction of a new town requires
various engineering technologies and these are combined to produce a single
"system." The utilization of a wide range of technologies inevitably calls for
a union of various enterprises and industries. In the construction of the port
town, various industryforces will be mobilized for the work on dredging and
' land reclamation, construction of the highrises, development of transportation
facilities, creati on of information networks, and consolidation of the environ-
- ment. This is indeed a"compound project" in which various enterprises and indus-
= tries are organically united.
In order to execute such a multi-industrial project, it is necessary to have an
organizing function equipped with a systematic, i.e. comprehensive, ability capa-
ble of organizing the entire project. The greater the project, the greater the
number of technologies and enterprises involved; therefore, the existence and
- role of the organizer becomes even more indispensable.
In this "compound project," the "enterprise experienced in actual production and
= in processing the know-how" will take control. The requirement for the organizer
is the experience which enables it to integrate and exECUte the giant project in
which technologie s and enterprises are intricately combined.
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The "Soft Engineering" Called "Society Engineering"
The staff of Nippon Steel's new division, "Living Environment Development Divi-
gion," unhesitatingly calls their own unique and comprehensive engineering iri
respect of city planning "urban engineering" (urban development engineering).
They explain it as "new engineering, different from the methods of the present
developers and appropriate to city planning for the 21st century."
The top management of the company has given top priority to the execution of the
"compound project" within iCs management strategy, over and above steel, and
points out that a promising new industry in the form of "compound project" in-
dustries has appeared for the future of the steel industry.
The development of Nippon Steel's "engineering business" reflects a"new face"
in the engineering industry aiming at the 21st century. The engineering indus-
try originated in the United States at the beginning of the 20th century with
the method of building plants that refine petroleum and petrochemical products.
Even today, the term engineering refers principally to the field of petrochemi-
- cals .
The nature of new engineering, however, is changing toward "know-how as a system"
that was nurtured through the experiences gained in organizing plants. One may
call this an aggregate of experiences that takes into consideration the balance
- b etween technology, hiunanity and society, and executes the entire project
in an orderly manner. This advanced method of "project engineering" is about
to take off, seeking new areas of application.
From the eighties to the nineties, the "compound projects, in which the new
engineering method is expected to play an active role will emerge in various
- areas on land, in the sea, and in the air.
On land, it will concentrate on the development of petroleum alternative energy,
such as nuclear power and coal. The nuclear power complex plan, based on the
establishment of the nuclear fuel cycle and the high-temperature gas reactor,
is about to take a long stride forward. Liquefaction and gasification of coal
will be realized probably by the latter half of the 1980's. Projects related
to social development, such as housing and urban development, are flourishing.
Needs Expanding to Seas and Sky
Agricultural development using an industrial production system is one of the most
prominent projects. For instance, as a"new weapon" of economical cooperation in
Middle Eastern countries, the idea of building an "agricultural complex" for
industrially producing foods in the middle of a desert is being considered
through the joint efforts of C. Itoh & Co Ltd, Chiyoda Chemical Engineering &
_ Construction Co Ltd, Kurita Water Industries Ltd, and Hitachi Ltd. It is
_ expected that this application of an engineering method in agriculture will
- become a breakthrough in dealing successfully with the low farm productivity of
Japan.
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There is a wide variety of marine projects. The most crucial area 3;s in the
development of oil and natural gas in the ocean. The trend is toward drilling
_ in deeper seas, and "help" from various technologies is being sought. This
area is called "marine engineering" and includes tidal pow;r generation,
thermal difference power generation system, marine oil storage base, mining
of manganese nodules, and fish farming; giant industrial projects are now
shifting from the land to the ocean.
- In the sky, a wide range
and development of "sate:
munications system" will
Also, the development of
~ giant projects.
of satellite uses will probably bring about the birth
Llite business." The utilization of a"satellite com-
expand as.a means of communication and information.
solar energy cannot be realized without the use of
It is cextain that the "compound project industry" will become the mainstay of
future economic growth and the core of the export industry. The development of
this "new business " that fully utilizes the advanced engineering method, even in
the United States, where it is referred to as "macroengineering," is highlighted
in academic 'circles as the "frontier" in the formation of industries. "Compound
project" is one of the areas U.S. enterprises with their comprehensive powers
_ are good at; however, it can be said that the development of the new engineering
industry in Japan is one in which the Japanese enterprises will pursue their
"tough competitor."
DEVELOPMENT OF COMPOUND ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES
Related to Resources and Energy
Nuclear Power
Nuclear fuel cycle
Nuclear power complex, such as high-temPerature gas reactor
Petzoletm and Gas
LNG comprehensive utilization system
Petroleum storage system
Marine petroleum and natural gas development systems
Coal
Unmanned coal-mining engineering
Coal liquefaction system
Coal gasification system
Electric Power
High efficient generation system
--MFID
_ --compound cycle generation system
--high-performance gas turbine generation system
Superconduction-transmission system
Wind and tidal generation systems
Thermal difference generation system
. Geothermal development and utilization system
Mining
Mining and refining of manganese nodules
~ Low-grade ore mining engineering
Super deep ore deposit development system
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- So],ar Energy
Orbital solar energy power generation plant
Marine solar energy power generation system
Agricultural Alcohol
Alcohol plant construction system
Related to "Social" Development
= Housing and Cities
Prodiiction and construction system for housing industry
New transportation system
New information and communications system
- Environmental protection and disaster prevention systems
Energy saving urban mechanization system
Sewage and waste water high rotation utilization system
- Medical, Health and Welfare
Hospital automation system
Regional medical inforr.ation system
"Positive health care system"
Plant system for the aged and disabled
Education alid Culture
- High level CAI system
- Lifetime education and training system
System to increase the level of educatian via radio and TV
Foods
Green leaf protein producing system
Production of glucose from cellulose sources and its application and
, development system
Large-scale open-sea fish farm system
Rice field high utilization system
Animal waste fertilization system .
Industry Adjustments.to New Environment
Resources-saving and energy-saving
' --raw material conversion
--production method conversion
--energy conversion
- -�-design ideology convezsion
Adjustments to society with a growing population of elders
--high-level robot system
Adjustments to meet diversified needs
--CAD system
- --multi-item, small quantity production system
--automatic assembly system.
[9 Jan 81, p 7]
_ [Text] OPEC's (orga:tization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) crude oil hikes
arrived at during its general meeting on the island of Bali last December have
- spurred the development of new energy. This is because we have come to a stage
where we can no longer postpone "doing without oil" and because the new energies
- have become more economical.
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: Although the 1970's was a period of turmoil, oil still remained the "ace" among
all energies. However, the 1980's and thereafter will be an age in which there
will be no "ace." There is a fear that living and economic foundations may
cPumble unless all possible alternative energy can be summoned up and offered
continuously bit by bit. The promising alternative energy available in time for
the 1980's will be limited to nuclear power (light water reactor) and coal. Even
these two will be exhausted eventually. Although at present we possess an ample
supply of natural uranium, if we continue to build light water reactors that
use uranium-235 exclusively, the latter constituting only 0.7 percent of natural
. uranium, then natural uranium will be exhausted, along with petroleum. Coal may
be burned unprocessed in large boilers, but it cannot be used for smaller boilers
- unequipped with desulfurization and denitrification devices. It is impossible
= to use coal in its natural stata for transport vehicles unless we go back to the
age of the steam engine.
There is an urgent need to develop new energy for the post-light water reactor
and unprocessed coal burning period. The areas in which unprocessed coal burn-
ing cannot be used as a substitute will use synthetic fuel oil. Coal liquefac-
tion, tar sand, oil shale, and alcohol from biomass will be the "hopes" after the
1990's. The principal force which will succeed light water reactors will be
fest breeder reactors; but as far as electric energy is concerned, it appears
that not only nuclear energy but also smaller, diversified types of energy will
emerge, including geothermal, solar, wind and ocean energies.
The United States and other countries are actively involved in the development of
synthetic fuel oil. This is because the present petroleum-based energy system
doesn't have to be changed, and furthermore it will allow putting a check to
- the movement of OPEC.
Turning the White Elephant Into a Treasure
First, the emphasis must be placed on liquefaction of coal. The amount of coal
reserves far exr_eeds that of oil; they are widely distributed in such advanced
countries as the United States, Australia, Canada and West Germany. If lique-
faction of coal is realized, it can reduce tremendously the IEA (International
Energy Agency) countries' dependence on OPEC. Furthermore, although we have
hardly utilized brown coal--found in great quantities in Australia and China--
because of its high liquidity, if we can succeed in liquefying it, we can con-
vert this "white elephant" into an energy source. There are two coal liquefac-
- tion methods: in the indirect liquefaction method, coal is first gasified and
then liquefied; in the direct method, coal is liquefied immediately after addi-
- tion of hydrogen. Japan, the United States and West Germany are now promoting
the development of direct liquefaction technology, since this has a higher
liquefaction rate. A commercial plant would be one which can process daily
30,000 tons of coal and produce 100,000 barrels of liquefied coal.
, Germany and Japan have the experience of havitig produced a significant volume
- of liquefied oil during World War II, when they fell short of crude oil. This,
- however, was accomplished without consideration of profit. The technology of
processing mixtures of solids, liquids, and gases under high temperatures and
pressure is difficult, and it is not easy to produce liquefied oil at a price
competitive with oil.
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Under the "Target for Supplying Alternative Energy," the government has indi- ~
cated a goal of securing 22.6 million kiloliters of (coal) liquefied oil for ;
fiscal 1990. Five enterprise groups, including Nippon Brown Coal Liquefaction
(headquarters in Tokyo, Kokichi Takahashi, president, cap ital 500 million yen)
which is eyeing the brown coal reserves in the Province of Victoria, Australia, ;
and Mitsui Coal Liquef action (headquarters in Tokyo, Shingo Ariyoshi, president,
capital 500 million yPn) are developing technologies to meet the goal. It will
- be difficult, however, to achieve.
Fast Breeder Reactors by 1987
The fast breeder reactor is seen as the next generation replacement for the light
water reactor. The construction of a prototype, "Monju" ["Wisdom"] will begin
this year. It will be completed in 1987 and is expected to generate 275,000
kilowatts.
The fast breeder reactor uses as fuel re-treated plutonium from the light water
reactor; moreover, since the reactor is capable of self-b reeding more plutonium
than it consumes, eventually it will be able to produce its own fuel.
However, it is uncertain as to when it can stand on its own as a commercial
venture; additionally, there is the fear that since plutonium is easily con-
verted for use in nuelear weapoiiry, trends in international politics might in-
fluence the handling of plutonium. Furthermore, the Japanese Government has
yet to determine a long-term strategy dealing with the relationship between this
reactor and the convertors presently under development, which also use plutonium
and natural uranium as fuel.
On the other hand, it would appear that diversified types of energy will become
one of the characteristics of the 1990's and beyond. Among them, more work has
- been done on geothermal energy. There are 6 geothermal power plants in opera-
_ tion, including the Hatchobara (output, 55,000 kilowatts) plant of Kyushu El:ec-
tric Power Co Ltd, and the total output nationally has reached 162,000 kilowatts.
Japan has 9.4 percent of all active volcanoes in the world. For Japan, which
is not blessed with abundant natural resources, goethermal energy is its most
- promising "domestic" source of energy. Although surveys have not been completed,
it is said that about 30 million kilowatLs of geothermal energy are available
in 50 locations where data are available.
Also Useful for Regional Development
Geothermal energy will contribute greatly to regional development. Geothermal
generation uses steam built up within the earth, but along with steam, hot water
of temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Celsius boils out. This water can be used
for many purposes: in agriculture and fishery, it can be used to heat green-
houses and in fish farming; it can be used for regional heating, for supplying
hot water, and for removing snow from roads.
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According to the government, in the long-term prospect, geothermal generation
will be increased at a rapid pace, to 3.5 million kilowatts in fiscal 1990 and
7 million kilowatts in fiscal 1995. The capacity of conventional geothermal
plants working at (shallow) depths of less than 2,000 meters is at most 50,000
_ kilowatts per location. The development of deeper geothermal generation,
3,000-4,000 meters: will be the future issue; for this however, a higher level
of technology is required for probing and digging.
Solar energy has even more potential than geothermal energy. The energy pro-
duced by direct sunlight per square meter of ground surface is 1 kilowatt. The
average solar energy utilizing the entire land surface of Japan exceeds by
several hundred times the present power generation capacity. Of course, we can
use only a fraction of it, but its attraction lies in thci fact that each house-
hold can use it creatively.
The sale of solar bath water heaters has already reached 1 million units annually,
and as of the end of 1979 solar systems which provide hot water and heating in -
addition to bath water have been installed in over 5,000 households. According
to the "Sunshine Plan," it is expected that by 1990 solar systems will be in-
; stalled in about 7.8 miliion households, which is equivalent to about 20 percent
of the total households in Japan.
The next objective in this area is the technological development of solar light
generation (solar battery) which provides residential power generation. Power
is generated when the sun's rays hit the silicon semiconductors; unfortunately,
however, the cost of power generation by solar battery is still prohibitive,
running as high as 5,000 yen per watt. It would cost over 10 million yen to -
build a system generating 2 kilowatts. The goal is to reduce the cost down to -
1/100 by 1990. The time may come when the greater part of the energy consumed
_ at home will come from solar energy.
' [10 Jan 81, p 6]
[Text] In the United States, there is the view that: "Energy saving is an
untapped resource; if the United States makes a serious effort at conservation,
we can cut 30-40 percent of the present consumption of energy. The total amount
of oil imported by the United States will become unnecessary." ("Energy Future,"
a special report by Harvard Business School) A challenge to save energy is as
- significant as the development of promising resources.
- Highly Efficient MHD Power Generation
Since 1978, the Japanese Government has instituted the so-called "Moonlight
Plan," promoting the development of advanced energy-saving technology as a
national project. What we call "energy saving" involves various technologies;
roughly classified, they include technologies to: 1) improve energy consumption
efficiency, 2) recycle waste heat and waste materials, 3) store and transport
energy, and 4) develop energy-saving raw materials. The most important among
them is the technology which improves consumption efficiency, which would in
turn reduce the energy input.
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- A highly efficient gas turbine involves a new tEChnolagy which radically en-
hances the heat efficiency of power generation and is considered the most :
promising in that it is one in which "Japanese research and development is the
most advanced in the world." (Maretoshi Nishida, researcher at the Agency for
Industrial Science and Technology) In addition to the national research agency, -
the Highly Efficient Gas Turbine Technology Research Association, comprised of
14 private enterprises, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Ishikawajima-
Harima Heavy Industries, and electric power companies are working together to
bring about its utilization. Since 1980, they have been involved in the con-
struction of a pilot plant on the property leased through the Takasago Plant
_ of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries; the government budget proposal for fiscal 1981
appropriated 5.92 billion yen for construction expenses.
They plan to complete the plant by 1982, conduct a trial run and, by improving
it further, build a protoplant by 1984. They expect to invest as much as 10
billion yen, but the heat efficiency of the protoplant should exceed 55 percent.
This has epoch-making significance, considering that despite *_he fact that about
10 percent of the total demand for energy in Japan is in the form of electricity,
the heat efficiency of the most advanced thermal power plant is only about 40
percent. The power generation capacity of the prototype is 100,000 kilowatts
and the plant is designed so that it can be put to practical use.
- In addition to the highly efficient gas turbine generation, another heat effi-
ciency improving technology, designed for actual use in the 1990's, is magneto
hydrodynamic (MHD) power generation). In a large area, 18,000 square meters,
within the Takasago Plant of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, a large almost
windowless building and facilities such as dust-collecting equipment and a cooling
tower are nearly complete. This is the MHD power generation test plant called
"Mark 7," which the Agency fcr Industrial Science and Technology and the Electro-
- technical Laboratory are jointly constructing. During fiscal 1981 the plant will
conduct test runs with the goal of running for 200 hours at 100 kilowatts.
- This MHD plant generates power by running high temperature gas of about 2,700
degrees Celsius, obtained by burning heavy oil,natural gas and coal, through
- generation channels placed between powerful magnets at a high speed of about
1,000 meters per second. The temperature of the gas, after it has generated
- power, is still nearly 2,000 degrees Celsius, so it can be used again to pro-
- duce steam to operate conventional thermal power generation. With this combi-
nation, the heat efficiency will increase by more than 50 percent.
The MHD power generation started in 1976 as a national project, and the currer..t
research and development will end in fiscal 1982, when data from the operation
of Mark 7 will have been gathered. However, the power output of Mark 7 is only
100 kilowatts. For actual use it must be able to endure several thousand hours
of operation and produce several hundred thousand kilowatts; therefore, there
still remain the issues of: 1) improving the durability of power generation
channels, 2) developing heat exchangers that resist high temperatures and ero--
sion, and 3) developing superconducting magnets with powerful magnetic forces.
Both the United States and the USSR are also competing fiercely in rhe develop-
ment of MHD power generation. The USSR, in particular, by 19$5 plans to complete
- its "U-500," which has a capacity of 500,000 kilowatts. The United States also
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plans to operate a large test facility within the year and is aiming at its -
- practical application in the first half of 1990. The Agency for Industrial
Science and Technology will determine the next stage development policy after,
it examines the results of the operation of Mark 7, and it will also study
international cooperation with the United States.
- Large Capacity Storage Batteries
About half of the energy used in Japan is dispersed into the air in the form
of heat. The development of technology to recover this waste heat, too, has
been encouraged as a result of the energy price hikes following the second oil
shock. In the technology to recover waste heat, the difficulties are in dealing
with high temperatures of over 1,000 degrees Celsius and low temperatures of
_ under 100 degrees Celsius. In the case of high temperatures, large equipment
and huge investments are required, and in the case of low temperatures there are
technological difficulties as well as the question of economy.
- In the manufacture of cokes where coal is carbonized, the temperature that
- escapes from the furnace ranges from 900 to 1,200 degrees Celsius. As a part
of the Moonlight Plan, last November Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Toho Gas
Co Ltd built a"dry-type coke extinguishing facility," capable of processing 10
tons per hour, in the latter's Komei Plant (Nagoya). Inert gases (nitrogen,
etc) are stored inside a doughnut-shaped dome 10 meters in diameter. When the
scorching cokes go through the dome, the inert gases are heated to 750 degrees
_ Celsius. The high-temperature gases are then sent to a boiler and used for
power generation. After test runs in 1981, Toho Gas plans to build another
facility four to five times larger than the present one.
On the other hand, Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd, in cooperation with Kawasaki
Heavy Industries, has put to actual use the world's first technology of generat-
ing power by recovering low-temperature waste heat. The special characteristics
of this technology lies in the use of Freon 11, which has a boiling point of
23.8 degrees Celsius, as a heat medium; the cooling water (76-98 degrees Celsius)
- from the converter evaporates the Freon which in turn rotates the turbine. The
_ maximum output is 2,900 kilowatts, and the average generation cost is 7.5 yen per
kilowatt; therefore, it produces considerably cheaper electricity than can be
purchased.
- If only electricity can be stored--a project aimed at realizing this dream
started last October. If a large capacitq storage battery system ca.n be
developed to store excess electrici.ty during night hours by electrochemical
reaction, the stored electricity can be discharged during daytime peak hours
- and thereby energy can be saved. The 11-year project is designed to develop
new type storage batteries and test them. In storing electricity, pump-up
power generation has already been utilized; other methods use flywheels, com-
= pressed air, superconducting coils, condensers, and hydrogen. The Agency for
Industrial Science and Technology, however, regards the storage battery system
as the most realistic.
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Combination of Technologies
In addition, among future energy-saving technologies are the development of
aluminum refining technology using the blast furnace method, superconducting
- electric transmission technology with minimal loss of electric transmission,
and energy-saving high-performance magnetic materials.
Since the oil shock, the steel industry has introduced continuous casting
- equipment with high energy-saving efficiency; progress is being made in energy
consumption efficiency in the automative and home electric appliance industries;
the energy-saving technology of Japanese industries is the highest in the world.
However, energy saving requires more than these advanced technologies. The
Tokyo Electric Power Co Ltd built its Otsuka branch office equipped with every
possible energy-saving device includin$ a solar system and air�-conditioning
equipment. While it boasts that this is "the world's number one energy-saving
building," the equipment is available on the market. With its "know-how," i.t
combined the existing technology and equipment, so that the company saves 52
percent of the energy consumption of ordinary buildings.
Depending on the size of the equipment, degree of operation, and willingness
of employees, the energy-saving method will vary. "Know-how" is needed which
fits the energy-saving equipment to the conditions peculiar to each company.
Asahi Chemical Industry Co Ltd has merchandised a wide range of energy-saving
know-how which it has accumulated. For an enterprise, energy-saving aims at
reduction of cost. The pressing issue now is the development of know-how which
will lead to effective use of energy-saving equipment and enhance prof itability.
[12 Jan 81, p 71
[Text] "Technology is what propels enterprises" (from the New Year's message -
of Shoichi Sanami, president of Tokyo Shibaura Electric Co Ltd). President
Sanami aside, in no other year has there been such heavy emphasis on the impor-
tance of the response of enterprises to new technologies in the New Year's mes-
sages of the top management of various industries. This is because manaaement
has begun to share the awareness that any 1ag in technological strength is fatal -
to development of an enterprise.
Determines the Fate of Enterprises -
- In the long-term outloak, there is the theory that for the moment, no technologi-
cal innovations of great magnitude will surface. In fact, however, advanced
compound industries are diversifying infinitely, one after another. Furthermore,
there have been large movements in the development of advanced basic technology,
which heretofore has been considered weak, but which will be responsib le for the _
. "next generation." If so, the industries' approach to R&D (research and develop-
' ment) can be regarded as a"battYefield" on which, to exaggerate, they are gambling =
their own fate. -
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Last summer, an American television program introduced very clearly Japan's
high production tecnnology, including quality control, through its reportage
on Japanese production sites. The average Japanese who saw the program
appeared to have been convinced of the high level of Japan's technology. But
those who are responsible directly for technological development may not feel
so self-assured.
- Improvement and advances in production technology will continue, but the interest
of the developers of technology lies in tackling the areas of advanced compound
technologies which are beginning to show expanded "business opportunities" and
_ in prep aration for the development of basic advanced technologies which will
become their weapons in the next 10 to 15 years.
_ First, in the area of advanced compound technologies, the new markets formed by
' the combination of existing technologies of "mechatronics," "labor-saving," and
"office automation," are appearing at a rate surpassing expectations: This is
not limited to areas developed by advances in microcomputers, but extends to
those of raw materials and engineering. "With a trend toward 'compound engineer-
ing,' we are in a position where, if we are not careful, we will be left behind."
(Akio Mukai, director, Mitsubishi Chemical Industries Ltd and chief, Mitsubishi
Research Institute) For this reason, competition for development increases daily.
Multidirectional Diplomacy
In this bewildering movement, it becomeG indispensable for those in the R&D of
an enterprise "to extend their feelers in the right directions constantly and
catch the technological development of the entire industry." (Toshimasa Mitsui,
- vice president, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd) This is because, in a situation
in which what appear to be totally unrelated technologies can combine to develop
an unexpected market, there is "the need to find out what and where improvements
and applications of a technology are being carried out and to envisage how one's
own products are related to them." (ibid)
It is also important to perceive how informa.tion gatrered through "multidirec-
tional diplomacy" in the development of technology can be incorporated into
one's own R&D. Because incorporation of technology is no longer "vertical" but
"horizontal," "it is inefficient for one company to go into everything, but
- if you let outsiders take care of everything, you'll miss the bus." (Mukai,
managing director) If there is a failure here, then everything has gone for
nothing. In order *o prevent such a danger, there is the need to structure the
A&D so that one is prepared "to build a`core' technology in a particular field
which is superior to that of competitors and furthermore is flexible enough to
extend into surrounding areas while keeping a sharp eye on them." (ibid)
Furthermore, in R&D, which demands unprecedented horizontal extensions, "it is
extremely important to train individuals who can control and lead without losing
the oven;iew" of a development project in "compound engineering." (Isamu Yama-
shita, chairman, Mitsui Shipbuilding and Engineering Co Ltd) Just as in an actual
combat division, such leaders are needed in an enterprise to develop and control
technologies. The number of enterprises holding regular strategy meetings of
responsible persons fram management, production, and technological development
is increasing.
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, In this respect, one can say that "there will be a stronger linear organization
of the research and development division." (Mashisa Ito, president, Toray
Industries Inc) For example, at Toshiba, among the research centers which were
formerly classified as "staffs," those which have strong ties to actual produc-
tion have been newly established under its present business division. Six re-
search centers, such as the "Medical Equipment Engineering Research Center,"
- are now ope rating independently of the "Research Institute," which handles
basic research.
Technology as True Resource
- In this manner, R&D which is directly related to business is being actively pur-
sued. In comparison, the development of advanced basic engineering which looks
ahead 10 to 15 years, despite considerable results in nuclear fusion engineering,
cannot be said to be "sufficient."
According to a study conducted last summer by the "Friends of High Molecules,"
made up of chief technicians from chemical and synthetic textile makers, the
world's comprehensive chemical manufacturers such as Hoechst (West Germa.ny),
DuPont (United States) and ICI (Great Britain) spend about 140 billion yen for
~ research and employ 12,000 to 13,000 researchers. In comparison to Japan, they
spend 10 times as much for research and researchers. _
With this b eing the case, then, the outcome 10 to 15 years from now is already
- clear. In order not to lag behind in basic technological development, MITI and
the Agency for Industrial Science and Technology, respectively, will sponsor the
"System To Develop Basic Technology for the Next Generation of Industries," and
the "Promotion of Creative Scientific Technology." The two giant technological
- development projects will start in fiscal 1981. -
These projects are "aimed at providing government backup in areas in which the
risks are too great for private enterprise to venture alone, and furthermore the _
R&D of industries with objectives in basic technology will play a major role in _
the coming generation." (Hisao Kobayashi, director, Technology Promotion Divi-
sion, Agency for Industrial Science and Technology) The idea is to use the tech- -
nological research associations of the private enterprises which succeeded in _
developing the super LSI in such areas where we face difficulties today as bio-
technology, new funct-ional elements, and new materials. The new systems differ
from previous large pro3ects. "They are, to be frank, government subsidies in _
untested t echnologies which may or may not prove fruitful. They represent govern-
- ment efforts at creating new R&D structures." As new systems they are evaluated ~
highly within industry circles. -
For this reason, even the synthetic textile and chemical industries, which used
to compete rather meaninglessly in the past, have set up a"Highly Functional
Molecular Material Association" and related research groups. "Cooperative struc-
tures in technological development are beginning to surface. In the electric
industry, it is said that "although it was difficult to run the Super LSI tech-
- nological research association, the second association, that of optical fibers, _
- is running smoothly." (Kenji Kakizka, managing director, Toshiba) The trend is
- to compete fiercely in technologies that face the enterprises immediately, but
cooperate in those which require cuoperation. .
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- The reason is that: "The time is past when we could import advanced basic
technology from the West even if we wanted to do so. It is time for Japan to -
- shoulder its responsibilities for these time- and money-consuming technologies. -
- To do this, government cooperation is needed." (Kobayashi, director) With the -
beginning of a technological development race among the advanced countries to -
secure technological superiority 10 to -15 years from now, the awareness that for
Japan, which lacks resources, "technology is resource" is spreading among offi-
- cials and those engaged in R&D.
' It can be said that both sh ort-term and long-term R&D structuring is finally -
becoming full-scale.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1981
~
9710
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ECONOMIC
Ai
- MAJOR INDUS'PRIALISTS EVAI,UATE 1981 BUDGET PLANS
- Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN in Japanese 30 Dec 80 P 8 ent u getary P1ans: Flexible
-
~ [Article: "How the Indust~ine V Circulation D se ired, and an Easygoing T~ In
eration
- Management of Finance and Boost in the Expenditures for Eco~lomic Coop
crease Is Not Satisfactory;
Is Hlghly Valued"]
et for 1981 bY the industrial cir-
The evaluation of the government budg �~e largest complaint was
[Text] as ~'SOmewhat unsat3.sfactory.
cles may be summed uP overnment did not make sufficient effor althoughs i~Opro-
h reduced expenditures,
directed at the fall g vernment~~ throug
- '~sm
- bring about a the first year of the financialanea~~emPtcto resolvetconflicts_
claimed th3.s as administra
goverrnnent forged a line for a tax increasi demand a thoroughgoing
nning in 1982. in terms of strong in finance. The industriustmentlof subsidies begi including the
tive reform and thereadj
t the tax increa n' and economic
= business the industrial circles ess consumptha ver, the industrial cir-
- tion. How~.
de r
expanded commodity tax, ~Y p national security. Since the
cles have welcomed the increased expenditures in thening defense spendi g
eration, as they are linked to streng
- coop ate the economic situation ie~ nslof thesf nancial and
- industrial circles antici~heir hope for flexible manag
_ many of them arefoTi~hegrecovery of business.
monetary policy
is focusing its complaint on the f act that
- Stee1 Industry: The steel industry
of the budget for public works has remaineduisitionlofeland
the growth rate enditures for the acq
1980. The reason is that w onneleexpenditures are taken intand
sites and the rise in the pers rowth,
scale of public works in substanc e amounts to a m nus g Ca proPortion-
for steel materials is unavoidable. Thus, the Japan
-
ate fall in the demands 3,6 percent
Iron and Steel Federa r engcentlyineering in forecast 1981 that t would e e~nds for steel mater-
be d .
_ ~uction d w11 feel the
- ials to be used in civil 5~11 steel bars used in const lts deter-
Particularly as this January, it is grimly
mination over 1980. to app Y for a Since recesthesion small cartel ba as i early ry ls consolidating
1 budget.
impact o f the
accepting the budget.
' dustry business is
g~

Since the nonferrous metalthe real reduction in
Nonferrous Metal Industry~ ublic investment,
affected by the demands related to painful to them. The reduction in the
public works in the 1981 budget is p
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number of houses to be built has an impact on the consumption of electric
- wires and other materials. The commodity tax increase on passenger cars and
, videotape recorders castG - dark shadow on the sectors with large demands such
as aluminum and lead.
' However, some nonf.:rrous industrialists judge that within the framework char-
acterized by the financial reconstruction, the Ministry of Finance has shown
_ "its share" of consideration. In particular, they view that the industry has -
received a better--than--expected understanding of individual problems of the
nonferrous metal industry. First of all, this has been shown by the creation
of subsidies to prevent mining pollution from dormant and closed mines. For
, the dispo sal of waste water from mine pits for which the last holders of the
; mining ri ghts were held fully responsible, a subsidy to cover one-third of the _
disposal costs was approved as a new form of subsidy. The industry estimates
that an increased rate in subsidies is possible also in fiscal 1982 and fihere-
' after, Also, it is of immense significance that the development of a mini.ng system for
manganese nodules has been adopted by the large-scale industrial technology re-
search and development proj ect (large-scale project) of the Agency of Industrial
Science and Technology. Amidst the rising nationalism with regard to natural
resources, the project will mark an important step in securing natural resources
in the 1990's and thereafter.
Electric Power Industry: The new measures for the acceleration of procurement
of locations for new electric power sources, including the compensation for the
- surrounding areas of atomic power generation facilities, which the Ministry of
International Trade and Industry has strongly demanded as an important item in
~ the 1981 budget have all been approved in substance. Also, the budget for the
development of petroleum substitutes and of new energy technology such as the
construct ion of inedium and small hydropower,- geothernial power and coal thermal
- power plants, the development of solar energy, the low-calorie gasification of
coal, and high-efficienr_y gas turbines has been almost fully approvQd as
- demanded.
Because of this the electric power industry appreciates the fact that the growth
rate of the budget for energy measures was high in spite of the limits placed on
' it by the financial reconstruction. Tadao Ogaki, vice president of the Electric
'Power Ent erprise Federation stated that the "importance of the development of
! alternate energy sources was recognized.
- On the other hand, the electric power industry welcomes the compensation arrange-
ments for prefectures for exporting electric power and for cities and towns with
hydroelectric power facilities which have been created as measures to promote the
acquisition of locations for electric power sources. The industry also welcomes `
the approval for the expansion in the compensation arrangements as measures to
promote the acquisitinn of locations for electric power sources. They consider _
that this would be helpful in promoting the acquisition of locations for elec- .
tric power sources in the future. But the eler_tric power industry does not
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necessarily give full support tothe compensation arrangements cooperation in
securing locations for atomic power on the grourids that "in substance it amounts
to 'individual reduction' of electxic power charges..."
_ Petroleum Industry: Although the petroleum industry tentatively approves the
fact that about 50 billion yen has been added back into the budget for petro�-
leum measures such as petroleum development and stockpiling, they generally
voice their strong opinion that the budget is inadequate to,cope with the
. serious situation concerning petroleum. Approved in the negotiations for the
budget reinstatement were an increase in the amount for the investment in and
- financing of mining exploration, the establishment of a-new oil center designed
to train petroleum technicians from oil producing nations, an increase in the
expenditures for the measures to strengthen petroleum stockpiling, and the new
establishment of the compensation for the interest accrued in the stockpiling of
liquefied petroleum gas. The expenditures for measures related to petroleum
were increased by 50.1 bil'Lion yen to a total of 305.6 billion yen. Because of
- this increase in the expenditure, it is a fact that some accept them as "a step
forward." However, approved was only a small portion of the demands by the
_ industry to receive no--interest long-term financing of the total amount needed
_ for petroleum stockpiling by private firms. Although it is true that the bud-
get related to petroleum development was also increased, some view it as still
a far cry from the amounts of investment by the major international petroleum
companies.
Automobile: President Takashi Ishihara of Nissan Automobile expressed his
sense of dissatisfaction with the remarks: "It was an inevitable step that the
current year's budQEt was drawn as a retrenched b�ciget with single-digit growth,
that is, 9.9 percei:::, tr. the general account. However, with regard to the
financial reconstruction, ',rst of all, an administrative reform and a review
- of various kinds of 5ubsidy should have been strongly pressed forward in order
to promote a budgetary cut. It is not convincing as a measure for tYe first
year of the financial reconstruction that an increase in the corporate tax and
the commodity tax was preceded by a budget cut. When we tak.e into account the
fact that as of now we are in a recession, such a step is feared as leading to
the impairment of the long-term development of the economy and of the vitality
. of enterprises. Thus, it presents a problem." The automobile industry, which
faces troubles both at home and abroad, considers that the commodity tax increase
- planned for 1981 will put a damper on the domestic consumers and that it might
- provide a cause for the international trade controversy (because European and
- American nations consider Japan's commodity tax as an import barrier). Thus,
the automobile industry will face an increasingly serious situation. Further-
_ more, the automobile industry feels that the financial reconstruction should be
tackled from the macro-perspective of long and medium terms, and that a consis-
tently strong policy is necessary. Thus, many voice their expectations that for
now stability in the domestic business situation should be stressed and that
appropriate measures to promote business including a higher interest rate should
be adopted.
Electric Machinery and Appliances Industry: In addition to the corporate tax
increase, nine new home appliances, including home videotape recorders which
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are entering the stage of mass consumption and large refrigerators, were
designated as subject to the commodity tax. Therefore, the electric machinery
gnd appliances industry generally accepts the view that its reward is small
compared to its increased burden. Some strongly fear that "the increase in the
commodity tax is an easy way to achieve a large-scale increase in revenues, but
- it will likely become an impediment to the recovery of individual consumption."
_ (Shoichi Sanami, president of Tokyo Shibaura Electric Company) Thus, there is
hardly a voice of satisfaction in the industry. Except for videotape record-
= ers, the general demand for home appliances, heavy electric machinery, and
electronic instruments has reached a ceiling. However, the 1981 budget imparts
a feeling that it has not given adequate consideration to the improvement of
business, as it tends to suppress the expenditures for public works. Some in
the industry, however, evaluate highly those sectors related to the promotion
- of increased orders and the invigoration of overseas business negotiations by
_ appropriating additional expenditures for international cooperation. They also
evaluate highly the defense-related budget which has set the goal of achieving
in advance the medium-term defense program and the tax cut in the investment in
- the development of energy-saving technology and new energy sources. Also, some
(as Mr Sanami) expect a balance in budget management between the financial re-
constructicn through administrative rationalization and simplification and busi-
ness and.measures for prices.
- Industrial Machinery Industry: A strongly-rooted dissatisfaction is expressed
with the suppression of public works in the 1981 budget in the industrial
mar.hinery industry, including the construction machinery industry and the en- -
vironmental machinery industry which are highly dependent on the investment in
= private sector facilities. However, many in the industrial machinery industry
_ which includes the machine tool industry have misgivings only about the indirect
- calming effects of the retrenched budget on business.
Many in the construction machinery industry who have agonized over the decreased
, sale of machinery since last spring due to the suppression of public works say _
' that "because of the 1981 budget, the decrease in domestic demands for construc-
tion machinery is likely to be quite severe." (Makoto Nakano, president of
_ Caterpillar-Mi t sub ishi Company) There is a considerable degree of "dissatis-
faction" as Tadashi Ouchida, president of Hitachi Construction Machinery Company,
' stated: "Using public works as a means of adjusting business presents a prob- _
lem." However, they view expenditures for a geological survey for the new
Kansai International Airport to be "good news."
But many throughout the whole industry seem to demand that the suppression of
_ public works should be carried out with discretion because excessive cutbacks _
- will have an adverse impact on business as a whole because of the already exist- -
ing investments.
- Shipbuilding Industry: "The shipbuilding industry has heaved a sign of relief
because the system to supplement interast on marine transportation loans, which
is central to the industry, has managed to continue. But Tsunesaburo Nishimura,
chairman of the Japan Shipbuilding Industries Federation claimed that "when the -
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supp].ement loan interest was revived in 1979,there was a promise that it would
be continued for 3 ypars. Some fear that those qualifying for interest supple-
- ment are limited to the vessels that transport energy products, which generally
discourage ship construction. But others comment: "Since we are in an anti-
depression cartel we must persevere at least for 1 more year." The majority
tend to rate the budget favorably, although they are dissatisfied with certain
parts of it.
Chemical Industry: The chemical industry is discontent with the fact that the
_ government selected a tax increase measure to finance reconstruction. The indus-
try maintains that in the future the government should earnestly tackle the re-
 form of administrative structures and the review of expenditure structures, and
= thereby endeavor to bring about the recovery of the proper function of finance.
The chemical industry estimates that because of the 2,000 billion yen decrease in
the national debt and a large-scale tax increase, the economy in 1981 will be
- austere. As the chemical industry agonized over large-scale reductions in pro-
duction and the deteriorating profi.ts, many in the industry remarked: "Since
we cannot expect financial support, we want a flexible and resilient policy
management, including a monetary policy such as the reduction of the official
discount rate of the Bank of Japan."
- On the other hand, in terms of the substance of the budget, tlie chemical indus-
try has rated highly the fact that consideration has been given to such aspects
- as economic cooperation, energy, and defense and national security. The indus-
try welcomes the 1-year extension of the tax exemption on imported naphtha and
- the launching of the technological development system to promote new industries.
= Fiber Industry: Although the fiber industry requested the continuation of the
previous measures in drawing up the current budget, there were few new measures
or additions. The industry remains dissatisfied with the increase in the cor-
porate tax and the incentive measures for business. Yet the industry accepts
the budget by saying: "The contents of the budget are the inevitable results
of carrying out financial reconstruction." (Yoshitaro Magoku, vice president of
- Toyo Rayon Company) Nevertheless, the fiber industry, in regard to the 1982
budget, requested: "The question of the financial reconstruction should be
handled by considering not only the tax increase but also the reductions in
expenditures. (Mr Magoku) The industry is seriously concerned with the future
trade conflicts. Thus, Mr Magoku commented: "We must see to it that Japan does
not become an international orphan. For that purpose a minimum increase in
defense expenditures is necessary. Domestic problems such as welfare must be
considered in balance with such an international problem as defense. Thus,
some show their understanding of the addi.tional defense expenditures. ,
Defense Industry: Of the 1981 defense budget, the frontal equipment costs are
- 458.6 billion yen, a 17.7 percent increase over 1980. In order to secure a
- footing for advancing by 1 year the Medium-Term Defense Program (1980-1984)
which is the important weapons procurement plan of the Defense Agency, emphasis
- has been placed on the standardization of the major equipment such as large-
missj.le-carrying escort vessels (4,500-ton type), and C-130H transport planes.
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The defense industry has unanimously rated the budget highly by saying:
"Taking the serious financial situation into consideration, the budget is
- samehow tolerable." However, there are many items such as HSS2B anti-sub-'
marine helicopters and F-1 support fighters which have received smaller suma
than the budget requested based on initial projection. Because important
items of equipment such as C-130H helicopters are to be imported from the
United States, some still remain dissatisfied by saying: "Because in the
- 1981 budget there are no purchase orders planned for large equipment such as
F'-15 fighter planes, we wished for more appropriation expenditures on other
items of equipment, but as it is now, there is no difference from 1980."
(Kenji Ikeda, managing director of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Company)
Aviation Industry: The aviation industry supports the progress in the con-
solidation of airports, but it opposes an increase in public taxes and levies .
- such as the transit tax, the airport user fee, and the fuel tax, as measures
to secure financial resources. _
= In the 1981 budget 2.45 billion yen is appropriated for the boring and the
geological survey as the basis of the construction for the newly proposed
Kansai Airport. Also, 62.2 billion yen (a 7.7 percent increase over 1980
budget) has been secured for the consolidation of local airports, including the
expansion of runways. However, the expenditures for the consolidation of air-
ports in the other areas have been reduced. Instead all costs are to be financed
by the special airport account. Also, some have misgivings about the financial
sources of the new Kansai Airport as well. -
Because the increased burden in the public taxes and levies has already become
a factor for pressuring aviation management, the industry makes a request for
measures to secure financial sources by saying: "It is unreasonable to let only
the currpnt nsers pay for it. A long-term borrowing system too should be
introduced."
Maritime Industry: The maritime industry has been watching the outcome of the
new interest supplement on loans for planned shipbuilding. In the first unoffi-
cial budgetary announcement, its assessment was stern, as supplemental interest _
for new ships was completely curtailed and even that for vessels under construc- _
tion was drastically slashed. But the maritime industry has heaved a sigh of
relief, because ultimately 403 million yen for new ships was approved. (An
0.1 percent reduction compared to the 1980 budget.) However, the types of ves-
sels to receive supplemental interest were limited to energy-transport vessels
such as liquid natural gas transport ships. Besides, a condition was imposed
that the other types of ships will get a reduced rate of supplemental interest. _
Also, in exchange for approving the supplemental interest for new ships, the
continuation of the supplemental interest for ships built before 1979 was termi-
nated. Accordingly, the industry has keenly felt the stern attitude of the -
government toward the interest supplement. The industry harbors enormous mis-
givings about the continuation of the interest supplement after 1982.
Housing Industry: The government budget proposal has not included the restric- _
tion on the construction area as a qualification for the low 5.5 percent annual
mortgage loan by the Housing Loan Corporation. The current criteria have been -
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- retained. For this reason, the housing and real estate industries feel re-
lieved and say: "It is only proper in view of the current situation where
people are clamoring for improvement in the standards for residential housing."
(Hideo Matsuo, president of Tokyu Real Estate Development Company) The indue--
tries vehemently opposed the original budget proposal made by the Ministry of
Finance on the grounds that imposed limits on the building area would further
aggravate the depression in housing construction, and repeatedly petitioned
far its withdrawal. They feel it unavoidable to impose a restriction that those
home buyers eligible for a low-interest loan must earn less than 8 million yen
annually (6 million yen by the Ministry of Finance's original plan). Accord-
ing to the Ministry of Construction, the number of home buyers who are subject
to income limitations in the financing by the Housing Loan Corporation is esti-
mated at about 10,000 (the total number of houses to be financed in 1981 is
510,000). ' Some 'i.n the industry remain dissatisfied with the reduction in the number of
house:~ to be financed by the Housing Loan Corporation by 20,000. Because there
is a strong view that the housing recession will continue another year or 2, the
decrease in the number of houses to be financed is important to the industry
for impxoving tusiness. For this reason there is a prevailing view: "If the
sale ef r.iauses should deteriorate further, they must consider an increase in
low cost nieitvages some time in the future."
Construction Industry: The construction industry is strongly dissatisfied with
the zero growth for 2 consecutive years in the budget for public works: "We
, have failed to make the government understand the destitute condition of the
industry." (junnosuke Toda, president of the National Construction Industry
Federation) In 1980 steady private works supported the total construction de-
mand. But as private construction has now declined, 1981 seems to become a
- difficult year for the construction industry."
The construction industry has kept appealing in regard to the 1981 budget:
"With a consideration for the inflationary rise in costs, at least the 1980
amount should be maintained in terms of the work volume." However, amidst
the clamor for the financial reconstruction, the "public opinion" demanding
_ the expansion of public works has not surged at all among the entire industry.
As a result, the petition of the construction industry has ultimately ended in
failure.
The ceiling on public works has already been manifested in the form of the
bankruptcy of leading medium and small construction businesses. Especially
since the medium and small construction induatry circles are not capable of
developing private sector works with their own technology, some fear that:
"The bankruptcy of inedium and small businesses will further increase."
(Mitsuo Suzuki, chairman of the National Federation of Medium and Small Con-
struction Businesses)
There is no telling yet what the total amount of public works in 1981, includ-
ing works related to government agencies, will be, but it is certain that in
terms of real work volume the total amount will be decreased. Furthermore,
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, when viewed in terms of the actual budgeted amount (the actually targeted
amount for orders), including the carryover from the previous year, fiscal
1981 will not yield as much carryover as in 1980. Thus, there is a great
probability that the amount will be decreased nominally.
Food Industry: "What has happened to Mr Nakasone's (Administrative Management
Agency) ability in the negotiations for the current year's budget? It is re-
-grettable that the administrative reform has resulted only in the transfer of the manufacture of YS11 .from the Japan Aircraffi Manufacturing Company to apri-
vate sector." (An executive of a food processing campany) Although the food
industry welcomes the decrease in the amount of national debt by 2,000 billion
yen as paving the way for f.inancial reconstruction, many indicate their dis-
- satisfaction saying that, without administrative reform, cutting the swollen
_ body of expenditures will not achieve much. They view also the increased de-
fense expenditures as a realistic measure in terms of political significance
in alleviating and preventing the U.S.-Japan conflict in the economic aspect.
- They request a flexibility in the execution and management of finance with em-
phasis on the recovery of individual consumption, through such a measure as
the interest policy.
- Medium and Small Enterprises: Medium and small enterprises accept as somewhat
unavoidable the tax incr_ease for the purpose of financial reconstruction. But
many voice their opi,nions that the tax increase should be legislated for a
limited period of time and that during this period the government should carry
~ out a resolute administrative reform and should revert to normalcy when a sound
financial basis emarges. Although they rate highly the fact that a bigger
tax cut for medium and small enterprises has been approved, the majority feels
that the tax decrease for investment in the energy saving is not strong enough
to become an incentive for investment technology for medium and small enter-
- prises, as compared with large enterprises.
Because such public utilities as the Japan National Railway rates and the
postal charges are expected to be raised and �urthermore the budget is to
suppress business expansion, many are afraid that such steps may further hurt
the economy. Accordingly, many voice their opinions that, as a measure f.or
lifting business, the reduction in the official discount rate should be imple-
- mented at an early date. While the budget related to medium and small enter-
- prises was originally proposed by the Ministry of Finance to have only a 0.4
' percent increase over 1980 almost at the same level as before, medium and small
; businesses :,ppreciate that it has become 2.6 percent in the final budget.
Evaluation of the 1981 Government Bud.get Plans by Major Industrialists
Kind of Industry:
Name:
Evaluat ion :
Brief Comments:
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Iron and Steel
Yoshinari Yatnashiro, managing director of Nippon Kokan.
Somewhat unsatisfactory.
Efforts to cut the expend3tures were inadequate, '�nd an easygoing tax increlSe
was adopted.
Nonferrous Metal
Setsuo Takashima, president of Mitsui Mining and Smeltering Co.
Generally satisfactory.
The industry appreciates that individual demands by the nonferrous metal indus-
try have been met.
Electric Pawer and Gas
Gaishi Hiraiwa, president of Tokyo Electric Power Company.
Generally satisfactory.
Amidst the financial reconstruction, energy measures have had a high growth rate.
Petroleum
Hiromu Obori, president of Kyodo Petroleum Company.
Somewhat unsatisfactory.
The budget related to the development of petroleimm is sma11 compared to that of
other countries.
Automobile
= Masaya Hanai, chairman of Toyota Automobile Industry Company. _
Unsatisfactory. _
Reasons for the tax increase and the increase in public utilities charges are
not convincing.
Electric Machinery and Appliances ,
Hirokichi Yoshiyama, president of Hitachi.
- Somewhat unsatisfactory.
The tax increase and the suppressed growth in public works adversely affect
= the vitality of enterprises.
Industrial Machinery
Ryoichi Kawai, president of Komatsu.
_ Somewhat unsatisfactory.
- Measures in terms of expenditures for the financial reconstruction are inade-
- quate. -
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Shipbuilding
Zenji Umeda, president of Kawasaki Heavy In3ustries. -
Generally satisfactory. ,
About 90 percent of the budget proposal has been approved. A pressing forward
in the implementation of the budget is desired. _
Chemical Industry
- Takeshi Hijika.ta, president of Sumitomo Chemical.
Somewhat unsatisfactory, -
The tax increase as an option with an inadequate cut in expenditures is not
ciesirable. . ~
Defense Industry
Kosaku Inaba, vice president of Ishikawa-jima-Harima Heavy Industries. _
Generally satisfactory. =
The budget was designed to please everyone, but as a whole it is passable. -
Maritime and Land Transportation
Susumu Ono, president of Nippon Yusen.
Generally satisfactory.
The new interest supplement for planned shipbuilding was approved.
Air Transportation
Shizuo Asada, president of Japan Air Lines.
Generally satisfactory.
The industry opposes an increase in airport users' charges as measures to
finance the consolidation of airports:
Real. Estate
_ H3jime Tsuboi, president of Mitsui Real Estate Development. ~
_ Somewhat unsatisfactory.
The regulation on the housing loan corporation's mortgage loans was unavoid- -
able. A reform of the land tax system is desired. ~ � Construction
Sadao Atsumi, president of Kajima Corporation. -
Unsatisfactory.
The guarantee of the amount of construction at the previous year's level'was
totally rejected. '
Food Industry
Bunzo Watanabe, president of Ajinomoto.
Somewhat unsatisfactory.
The tax increase without an administrative reform is one-sided.
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Medium and Small Enterprises
Ichiro Kosuga, chairman of the Medium and Small Enterprises Committee of Tokyo
Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
- Somewhat unsatisfactory.
The nudget was designed to suppress a business boom with a tax increase.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1980
10372
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
OUTLINE OF 1981 SPACE DEVELOPMENT BUDGET GIVEN
Tokyo KOKU JANARU in Japanese No 106, Mar 81 pp 65-66
' [Text] In a Cabinet meeting on 29 December the government decided on its
proposed 1981 budget. ihe sum of 46,788,100,000,000 yen, an increase of 9.9
percent, went to General Accounts, and government loans and investments were
increased by 7.2 percent to 19,489,700,000,000 Xen. In aerospace many new
programs were included, and the budget turned out to be rather interesting.
- The Defense Agency was permitted to purchase a new model aircraft, the C-130,
and to develop new and used training aircraft. A.YXX budget was allocated to
MITI and an XJB budget was established. A budget was allocated to the Science
~ and Technology Agency for trial production of the STOL fan jet. In space
: development, approval was given for development of a practical model of the
~ H-1 rocket. Below is an outline of the aerospace budget for each ministry and
_ agency.
- Defense Agency
Total Defense Agency expenses were set at 3,400,001,900,000 yen, up 7.6 percent
or 169,816,000,000 yen from last year. This corresponds to 9.1 percent of the
GNP which was set at 264.8 trillion yen. Of this, the following items are
related to aircraft and missiles.
Aircraft Purcha.ses: A request was made for 58 aircraft, expenditures of 6.7
billion yen, and a Treasury debt of 152.4 billion yen to be borne in subsequent
years, a total of 159.1 billion yen. Approval was given for 43 aircraft,
- expenditures of 5.9 billion yen, and 101 billion yen in a Treasury debt to
be borne in subsequent years, a total of 107 billion yen. The new model C-130
cargo plane was approved and except for some items, a large amount of aIl
requests was approved. Let's look at the siruation for each branch of the
Self Defense Forces.
Ground Self Defense Forces: From a request of 16 aircraft, 14 were approved.
A11 the OH61s were promptly approved. One less than the requested number of
both the HU-1H's and the LR-1's was also approved.
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OH-6D observation helicopters 8
HU-1H multi-use helicopters 5
LR-1 communicatio n and reconnaissance aircraft 1
Total 14
Ma.ritime Self Defense Forces: From a request of 25 aircraft, 17 were approved.
The new model C-130 went to ministerial negotiations but of the requested six
aircraft only two were approved. Also, only three of the four E-2C's requested
were approved. In this case, the remaining plane was taken to ministerial
negotiations and ultima.tely approved. Of a combined request of 12 F-1's and
T-2's, eight were approved, 1 more than last year.
- F-1 supporting fighter 2
E-2C early warning aircraft 4
C-130H cargo aircraft 2
T-2 high-grade training aircraft 6
MU-2 search and rescue aircraft 1
V-107A rescue helicopter 2
Total 17
Missile Purchases: Approval was given for modification parts for improved Hawk
missiles for one group. [ichi-gun] A plan had been made to use improved Hawks in
4.5 groups out of the 8 and 0.5 groups of anti-aircraft training corps. With this
approval, the plan was completely appraved.
The decision of whether to use a domestic- or foreign-manufactured missile for
the new short-range SAM became a controversial issue in the Diet. There was
skirmishing right to the last over allocating the purchase expenses for the
domestic SAM. This too was decided through ministerial negotiations. Four sets
were approved for the Ground Self Defense Forces and two sets for the Air Self
Defense Forces.
Research and Development: Basic design expenses of 2.4 billion yen were requested
- for the new int ermed iat e- grade training aircraft, a leading item for this year.
Approval was given for expendiCures of 300 million yen and a Treasury debt of
= 1.3 billion yen for a total of 1.6 billion yen. This is a new budget and is
connected with development so its progress was watched carefully. This began a
= 7-year project from trial production to testing of the new int ermed iate- grade
tra3ning aircraf t which will cost a total of 40 billion yen.
In another aircraft-related project, four small fan jet engines were approved for
trial production. Five were approved in 1980 so a total of nine will be completed.
Approval was also given for remodeling the T-2, mother ship for the test aircraft
in CCV research.
In the missile area, approval was given for an intermediate MAT, a ground-to-ship
missile, and a portable ground-to-air missile. A portable shoulder-launched
missile did not receive approval.
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MITI
The YXX budget has drawn attention as a new bud get, and "The Japanese aircraft -
indttstry will carry our preparatory planning on itr. own as a prior condition '
for cooperative international development." The government will provide three-
fourths of the 468 milZion yen totdl operating expPnses and 351 million yen was _
allocated for this purpose in 1981. The total operating expenses for the YX/767
- development plarL will be 4.08 billion yen. Government aid was secured for half
this amount, or 204 billio-i yen. However, no aid was set aside for the
development of the three 777 type aircraft which has a lot of potential.
According to government policy, the Nihon Aeroplane Manufacturing Company will be
changed to a private busir:ess by 1982. With this prer.equisite, it becomes
necessary to cover losses, and a subsidy of 41 2,500,000 yen, 82.5 perc ent of the
- necessary expenses of 500 million yen, was allo cated.
There was renewed promotion of space developmen t in 1980 and a total of
- 1,071,000,000 yen was allocated for the Earth Resource Satellite ERS-1, 53
million yen from General Accounts and 1,01$,000,000 yen from the Alternative
Energy Source Equivalent Special Account. The research done with this money will
focus largely on technology for processing dnd analyzing the data sent by the
- satellite.
Science and Technology Agency
Research and dPvelop;nent expenses were approved for an experimental aircraft,
_ the STOL fan jet. The allocation was made for expenditures of 4,370,000,000
yen and a Treasury -.::,-bt of 3.9 billion yen. This includes 1) expenditures of
3, 262, 000, 000 yen and a Treasury debt of 3, 455, 000, 000 yen for research and
_ development of a low-noise STOL experimental aircraft, 2) 311 million yen fo r
technological research, 3) expenditures of 263 million yen and a Treasury debt of -
445 million yen for flight simulat:i.on test equipment, 4) 130 million yen for
- control system fiinction test roem, and 5) 39.5 million yen for other expenses.
With this, the main expenses for p;rerything up through trial production of the -
experimental aircraft hae been allocated.
Of 88.2 billion yen in expenditures requested for space development, 85, 356, 000, 000 Pr~
= yen was approved.
This approval inc;uded opera::ing expenses for the No 2 stationary wearher '
_ satellite to be launched in 1981, the No 2 communicatiors satellite to be
launched in 1982, the No 2 broadcast satellite to be launched in 1983, and the
_ No 2 ocean observaticn satellite to be launched in 1984. Design expenses and
expenses for trial production of mounted instruments were requested for the
earth resources sate?.lite. The design expenses were not approved. Exp enditures
~ of 72 million y-en and a Treasury debt of 665 m111ion yen were approved for
development of synthetic aperature radar and o ther optical sensors. Al so .
- expenditures of 2 billion yen and a Treasury debt of 9, 2$5, 000, 000 yen were
= approved for de.velopment of a practical model o f the H-1 rocket.
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� In connection with space shuttle materials testing, 116 million yen was allocated
for launching a small materials testing rocket and 370 million yen waa allocated
= for materials tests.
Ministry of Transport (Civilian Aviation Bureau)
The Airport Maintenance Special Account depends on the aircraft fuel tax and the
airport use fee for revenue and is used for maintenance of airports and runways
and environmental measures. Income and expenditures are 238.1 billion yen, an
increase of 8.5 percent over the previous year. The expenditures include 62.2
billijn yen for airport maintenance, an increase uf 7.7 percent; 2.5 billion yen
in study expenses for the Kansai International Airport, more than double the
previous figure; 3 billion yen in public corporation expenditures, one-rhird
the figure for 1980; 102.5 billion yen for environmental measures, an increase of
14.2 percent; and 9.6 billion yen for runwav maintenance, an increase of 13.5
percent. The corresponding income is 97.4 billion"yen from General Accounts,
_ the same ampunt as last year; 120.5 bil.lion yen from airport use fee income; and
20.2 billion qen in miscellaneous income. Approval was withheld for the
incorporation of the total amount of the Traveling Tax into a special account
_ (amount requested: 70.8 billion yen) or the introduction of a borrowing system
(amount requested: 2.5 b3l"Lion yen) requested to start this year.
Maritime Safety Agencies
Approval was given for one 200T Beachcraft and two Bell 212 helicopters.
The stmm of 7.5 billion yen was allocated for aircraft maintenance, including the
_ amount continuing from previous years, and 340 million yen was al3ocated for
original equipment for bases.
Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications
' To promote space development and utilization, approval was given for expenditures
of 1,922,000,000 yen and a Treasury debt of 949,000,000 yen. This includes
_ expenditures of 821 million yen and a Treasury debt of 800 million yen for
promoting the use of applications satellites, 840 million yen for experimental
research on communications and broadcast satellites, Zl million yen for
- development of air and marine communications technology using satellites, 18
million yen for a multi-beam antenna for satellite use, expenditures of 28
million yen and a Treasury debt of 49 million yen for research and development
for high-precision position measurement technology using radio waves in space,
and 14 million yen for second generation applications satellites.
' Ministry of Education
- Expenditures of 11,244,000,000 ysn and a Treasury debt of 3,932,000,000 yen were
allocated especially for development of No 8 through No 11 satellites and the
No 3 M-35 rocket for use with the No 8 satellite, and also for space shuttle
experiment participation expenses and comprehensive combustion testing equipment
- for the M rocket.
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National Police Agency
; One medium-sized helicopter and one small helicopter were budgeted. The total
bddget is 641 million yen for the two ma.chines,
F:tre Defense Agency
The sum of 188.5 million yen was allocated to subsidize' one-third of the cost of
one medium helicopter and one small helicopter.
COPYRIGHT: Koku Journal Co., Ltd. 1981
9651
CSO: 4105
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FUTURE MODE OF COMPUTER EXPORT OUTLINED
Tokqo COMPUTOPIA in Japanese Vol 15, No 172, Jan 81 pp 85-89
[Article by the Editorial Office of the journal]
[Text] Computer Export Gaining Momentum
The export of computers and related manufactured goods has steadily increased.
It is not that each corporation reports every achievement with fanfare to the
public, but the 3.mportance of exports has come to weigh significantly in computer
related sales. The number of informa.tion industry enterprises that make a name
as an exporter increases every year, and also the export articles have been di-
versified. The separate table lists the names of corporations with realized ex-
port records classified by the major export articles. The recent characteristics
of export achievements are the rapid increase of a new export article, namely,
personal computers, in addition to the very glamorous universal computers, IBM
plug compatible CPU and office computers, and the distinguishable large size pur-
chase agreement in the field of peripheral machinery and equipment. In general,
the current trend is characterized by the diversification of the export goods and
the appearance of small commodities in association with this.
Sevarate Table: Rxport Models and Makers (typical examples)
IBM Plant Computer CPU
Fujitsu, Hitachi
Universal Computer System
Fujitsu, Hitachi, NEC
Off ice Computer
NEC, Mitsubishi Electric, Matsushita Communica
tion Industry, Sharp, Bantic(?), Uchida-Yoko
Home Computer
Sord Computer System Inc, Logic Systems, Ai
Electronics Corporation, Sharp
Mini Com uter for Control Use
Hitachi Toshiba
Magnetic Disk
Fujitsu, Hitachi, Nihon Sh-"henki, NEC,
Hokushin Electric
0
~
Serial printer
NEC, Oki Electric
ai
Line pri.nter
NEC
p,
CRT Display
Mitsubishi Electric
~
Data Entry System
Toshiba
p,
Communication Terminal
Oki Electric, Toshiba
Others OCR
Hitachi Toshiba NEC
Software
NEC, Software AG
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- The 9 October 1978 issue of the American economic journal, FORTUNE, reported:
"The Japanese computer makers are indeed beginning to make their presence felt
abroad. They have shipped a few large computer systems to the United States,
-Australia, Korea, China, and even Iraq. Scores of self-contained, small business
computers are humming away in Australia. Japanese peripherals, from printers to
disk and tape drives, as well as specialized computer terminals, have cropped up
_ almost everywhere...." ELECTRONICS dated 27 March 1981 introduced the Japanese
- offensive, "Now, however, the Japanese want to increase the volume of computer
products so that exports by 1984 surpass imports. Furthermore, they want to sell
complete systems under their own.brand names, and they view success in the United
States as the cornerstone of their plans to expand their export to the rest of
- the world. The American computer industry has mixed feelings about the Japanese.
- Most industry observers agree the Japanese are ready to take the plunge...."
Japan's computer exports have truly been transformed from an insignifxcant to a
prominent existence, and achieved in part results so much as to give a threaten-
' ing impact in the last 5 years.
A specific example is shown in the separate figure, using the export results of
major main framers. Fujitsu which has contrived to grow into an international
corporation earlier than the others, is expected to have exports of 44 billion
yen in 1980, a 20 percent increase compared to the previous year. The Nippon
Electric Company (NEC) forecasts a 25 percent increase to 15 billion yen." The
Hitachi's projection is 15-17.5 billion yen. The export growth was curtailed
. by the unexpected happening of the American ITEL abandoning the computer busi-
ness. However, shipping of CPU and OEM has resumed (a monthly average of 5-6
units) for the delivery of goods to American NASCO, West Germa.n BASF, Italian
Olivetti Computers, and the export ratio has recovered to the level of the days
when goods were exported to ITEL. Furthermore, M3tsubishi Electric, Toshiba and
Oki Electric, the three companies with previous smaller export values in yen have
set up a goal to double the amounts of the preceding year.
American reviews be what they may, J'apanese makers have implanted exports as the
great strategic pillar of the 1980's. The public announcement by Fujitsu re-
vealed the export ratio to the total computer sales to be 30 percent, Hitachi
20-25 percent and NEC 20 percent. Yes, they are throwing their hot eyes on over-
seas markets.
On the other hand, what shows an explosive growth is the personal computers,
which are 3.n t:ie class of computers sold from 700-800,000 yen to 2 million yen
per unit. Sord Computer Company received tentative orders of 2,000 units from a
= French cosmetic company and of 5,006 units from Swedish manufacturer, and is
planning to plunge into the local production in the EC (European Community) with-
in 1981. The logic Systems International which put the bus3ness use personal
computers with micro computers in the market, exports the products to Europe and
- Brazil, and particularly in the EC, the sales pace has reached the mark of about
200 units/month. Even from customs clearance statistics, the rapid personal com-
puter export increase is shown distinctively. For example, about 6,900 units
cleared customs even in the short period of January to June in 1980, which was a
12-fold increase compared to the same period in the preceding year. It already
indicates a tremendous potential that is likely to approach an annual export mark
of 20,000 units.
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Separate Table: Export Results of Major Framers (partially estimated)
soo
-
(1)%P9
(3)st~
400
2)

3
.
E*
300
1
g
(4) aA
~
zoo

m

(5) e*+9%
ioo
(6~~
(7) 71[z ~
(9)
(8) ~e���''.
riU~ll
~sa~~
4iMEff
19741 1917 1918 1979 1910
Key:
1. 100 million yen 6. Oki
2. Export yens of computer sector 7. Toshiba
3. Fujitsu 8. Mitsubishi
4. Hitachi 9. 1980 figure is projection
- 5. NEC 10. Fiscal 1976
The success of these companies, who started in the computer business earlier than
others, are stirring up the other companies' urge for computer exports. The
- maker's approach to the computer business also has greatly altered from the devel-
opment and production of computers focusing on domestic needs to the development
and production for anticipated international needs.
Micro Computers and Personal Computers as Springboard
Computers born and raised in America once swept over the international ma.rket.
But now, they are beirig reborn as a new international commodity by the hand of
~ Japanese makers. This is attributable to the following reasons: Japan's high
_ p?coduction technology standard, the will and desire to develop new markets, and
the back-up by MITI which chose.to remain behind the scene. There are two more
items in addition to the above that have rendered a powerful tractional force.
One of them is the aggressive development of new LSI (large-scale integration)
and its application to computers, the positive utilization of micro computers
based on LSI. What made this possible is the development of a high performance,
low-cost, micro-computer-base, inexpensive and manageable personal computers as
, a result of the incorporation of LSI, which are not meant for the hobby market
but are meant to spread in the business use market that can certainly be expand-
ed. LSI and micro-computers are adopted one after another to peripheral and
, terminal computers and office machinery and equipment, and brought up as competi-
tive commodities.
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And the other factor is the materialization of Japanese language data process-
ingo Processing in Japanese sentences written t.niquely in a combination of Chi-
nese characters and the Japanese alphabet, originated in the field of office
cotnputers rather than in large co-nputers. In the spring of 1978, an office com-
- puter with a Chinese character processing function was introduced, which congoli-
dated its position as a very familiar machine among the smaller business computer
users. Starting from fiscal 1979, Japanese language data processing systems in-
corporated in medium and large size computers have been presented one after
another by the makers. Functions of CRT display, printer and support software
were rapidly improved, and surpassed by far the imported foreign products. Fur-
thermore, the support in Chinese characters implies the establishment of a tech-
nology that makes the computer manageable in the native language of any country
in the world. This proves to be an effective weapon for computer exports to the
People's Repubyic off China, which is doubtlessly considered to offer a tremendous
future market.
Computer exports were boosted immensely by micro computers and personal computers,
and were further pushed upward by the Japanese language processing function. This
can be said to be the main stream of computer exports from 1978 to 1980.
- American IBM AFE (a subsidiary in charge of both North & South America and the
Far East) transferred theix total management responsibility for business to China
to IBM Japan'(1980). Burroughs Corporation opened up Burroughs Engineering Center
in Japan (April, 80, Yr,lcohama), NCR Japan established their System Engineering
Cen.ter in Tokyo (1979). American Honeywell Information Systems set up an office
for the Southcast Asia Area (1980), American Sperry Univac used the services of
Univac Japan and Oki Univac for business talks involving the Chinese market.
These various movements indicate that they are following the movements of the
- Japanese makers who are one step ahead in mastering the Japanese language data
processing, and acknowledge that the kep to advancement in the Southeast Asian
markets with China in the center is found in Japanese technology. Foreign affi-
liate computer corporations who delayed in coping with Japanese language process-
ing have not yet recovered from the damage except for IBM Japan, who has been pre-
- paring for the new direccion and has already disclosed a Chinese character system
in the World Fair in Japan. Japanese makers now have a once in a lifetime chance,
indeed.
MITI's Policy Transition
MITI has always backed up the progress of the Japanese computer industry. Par-
ticularly when it concerns computer exports, the agency firmly remains in the
background and is hardly ever seen on the forefront. Rather, MITI concentrated
their efforts on the facilitation of the super LSI development pro3ects, build-
ing of a cooperative structure for export-oriented industries, and guiding the
domestic makers on how to swim in the waves of international reorganization lest
the Japanese makers be internationally isolated. However, none of the direct
measures which have been planned for some time, themes such as JECC Overseas
(Japanese electronic computers joint rental company), Overseas System Assistance,
- New Sakuramaru (crusing sample fair) and establishment of Computer PR Center,
have not materialized. They are obstinately, faithfully adhering to the(policy
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of leaving the matter of gaining access to overseas markets to private entexprise.
- What kind of views on the matter of computer exports will be introduced in the
intermim report to be presented as early as the end of 1980 at the Information
Industry Subcommittee of the Industrial Structure Council? This report will be
_ one of the keys.
In the "Long Term Outlook for the Electronic Industry" compiled recently by the
Japan Electronic Industry Development Association, "Internationalization and Es-
tablishment of Order" was picked as one of the proposals, and it advocated: "In
the highly expanded and fluidized international economy, the electronic industry
cannot also be constrained within the economic frame of one nation. Under the
_ international perspective, trade movement, capital investment, advancement of
business overseas and transfer of technology must be promoted. Especially, ror
those enterprises which engage in multiuational business practices, it is neces-
sary and indispensible that they respect the individual nations' position and
- make an effort to find a rule for mutual coordination." This very electronic
industry can literally fit the des cription of the computer industry itself, and
the report is suggestive of MITI's future programs.
Indeed, MITI's policy is changing its course largely from "nurturing of dc;nestic
production" to "evasion of interna tional friction." The automobile and semi-
conductor trade disputes are still smoldering. Meanwhile, the material procure-
ment issue of the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation (NTTPC) has
been revealed, and has not yet been resolved. A new policy direction is imple-
mented due to the necessity for the computer industry, information industry, in
a broader sense, to avoid at all costs making the same mistakes. As if to speak
for this new line of thinking by the MITI, already two new ideas for international
cooperation have been introduced in newspapers since the beginning of 1980.
- Both were reported by the NIPPON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, and MITI's posture in trying to
give new direction to the information industry policy is extensively introduced.
One of the articles explained: "MITI is thinking of asking IBM to participate
in planning the communications sat ellite project of ASEAN (Association of South-
east Asian Nations) to make it a Japan-U.S. joint venture11 (dated 10 August 1980).
Other newspapers once or twice reported negative commentsby MITI, "not investi-
gated" or "never li':ely." There is no definite way to know-whether the article
was MITI's shot at an advertisement balloon. However, what is notable is the
= fact that the computer communicat ion service, a potential new growth industry of
the 1980's, was chosen as a test model, and IBM, the iargest computer line busi-
ness enterprise as well as the sub scriber for the American Satellite Business
System that is to launch three commercial communication satellites for business
- use, was named specifically as the partner for cooperation.
Another idea was reported on 21 October 1980, supposedly from a government source.
"The fifth generation computer joint research and development plan for practicali-
zation in the 1990's, by five nations--Japan, the United States, West Germany,
England and France" is said to be embodied when "each nation's government agency
agrees basically upon the joint development proposal presented by the Japanese
Government. After a conference of specialists is held in Tokyo by the five na-
tions in 1981 to come to a uniform understanding as to the functions and the
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_ roles of the 5th generation computers, a detinite joint development plan is then
- to be formulated...." Although they say this story came from a government source,
3t is obviously a conception by MITI. Even here, they designated international
- hgrmony by international cooperation as the pritnary purpose of the action: "Since
the 5th generation computer which substantiates basic technology for future indug-
try is extensively applicable, we would like to direct Japan, a country based on
technology, to make an international contribution through international coopera-
tion." (the same newspaper)
~ These two ideas by MITI may sound unprecedented. And probably, neither of the two
will start to work out as MITI wished. Nevertheless, what is noteworthy, in the
bottom line of the thought, is the presentation of the premise that MITI's policy
posture is subject to change by suggesting the necessity to avo3d patential trade
friction, the necessity for Japanese industry itself to break out of the conven-
tional protective shell. Yes, certainly we should interpret it as such.
One of the bad examples is the automobile industry. Profit taking was the main
concern and the international harmony was slighted. Japanese cars are proven to
be excellent, but the political issue is involved and the industry is frustrated.
- Without a strategy for international harniony, even superior commodities may be
~ emotionally or politically vulnerable to a boycott. For another example, NTTPC's
~ matezial procurement issue will be singled out. Without making an efforttto
screen the hopes and the fundamental intentions of the American government and
industries, NTTPC handed them a"wash rag and a bucket" only to aggravate the
already existing problem. Well, there is no multinational corporation per se in
its true sense, in Japan, and Japanese companies are immature in dealing with
' international harmony, as is clearly illustrated by these two cases. It is MITI
that expediently caught this new novement and tried to alter 3ts posture although
it is slightly scented with an advertisement balloon effect. MITI is trying to
reflect its new direction in handling of the matters related to the information
industry.� This means that in the 1980s, computer exports must be viewed in a new
perspective known as economic diplomacy. The most effective tool of international
- harmony is the joint venture and joint research. British ICL and West Germa.n
Nicsdorf Computer wedged themselves into the American market without inflicting
frictions by using the formulas such as purchasing of local businesses and the
assimilating of the local business practice.
The issue of the automobile industry has already escalated to the scene of verbal
battles between American industries and the Japanese Government. This issue of
the NTTPC has entered into the government to government level. Computers and the
office automation (OA) machinery and equipment have not yet reached a level of
trouble involving the government to a great extent, but remain. in the level of
the private sector versus private sector marketing race. It is now the time to
take some conciliatory measures on the private level, which will eventually re-
sult in a great plus for the Japanese information industry.
_ Remaining Issues
- There are many other problems unsolved yet in regard to computer exports. At one
glance,.they look like nothing but the accumulation of favorable export results,
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but they are mainly composed of OEM supply. If the current trend continues, the
Japanese data processing might even fall into tfie state of being sub-contractor
for the information machinery and equipment production. Indeed, a universal com-
puter system is also exported, but the majority of the transaction deals with
_ OEM export for IBM plant computer's CPU. Furthermore, the makers that manu.faCtuYe
IBM plant computer CPU ax~ often deprived of a greater part of their potency as
they must always devote themselves to follow in the wake of IBM. In past prac-
tice, Japanese electronics makers started with a dead copy of a product of an
American maker, a partner of their business tie-up, but assimilated the know-how
- and soon ended up with an original product which eventually led to the present
prosperity. Although they made Japan's outstanding advancements felt in the
field of computers by developing Japanese language data processing, nothing worthy
of inention came out in other categories. Even in the office computer field in
which Japan specializes, they are greatly influenced by the concept proposed by
IBM which has only a small market share.
The second point of the argument is software. Superior hardware production was
demonstrated by the OEM export for IBM plant computer CPU and the export of per-
sonal computers and peripheral terminal computers and equipment. In contrast,
- only a handful of software were proven worthy. It is urgently desired that inter-
- nationally acceptable software conducive to the sale of hardware be made.
- The third point concerns the computer communication services that claim the title
= of the 1980's new information industry. Though not directly relating to exports,
we must be aware that there is a sizable restriction at the dawn of the communica-
tion era when computers and comnunications join hands. Specifically, strapped by
the monopoly of communications by NTTPC and KDD, the utilization of the computer
communication services will be restricted to the old and conservative controls
and restrictions. The Japanese information industry was raised under the free
trade system along with the United States, and earned the title for Japan as the
world's second largest computer country. However, entering the computer communi-
_ cation era Japan will go into competition under controls and restrictions, a condi-
tion entirely different from the United States. It is possible that the growth
that we will see may be different from what we are accustomed to under unharnessed
freedom.
_ The fourth question is the geographic balance of the export. According to the
data obtained by the Industry and Economics Bureau of the U.S. Department of Com-
- merce (WEEKLY PIKO, 20 October 1981 issue), the computer export ratio in the
a first half of 1980 was 53 percent to the EC, 9.9 percent to Canada, 13.3 percent
to the Far East, 7.1 percent to Latin America, 1.2 percent to the Middle and
_ Near East, 1.0 percent to the communist block and 14.5 percent to other areas.
Our remaining homework is the question of how tu set up priority areas and how
to go about laying a foundation for a friendly relationship.
Just as 5 years ago, there are many other remaining subjects, for example, such
as compilation of ma.nuals, support systems, education, PR and capital. These
will be, however, hopefully resolved one by one by achievement and experience.
COPYRTGHT: 1981 Computer Age Co., Ltd
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
CURRENT RESEARCH PROGRAMS AT TSUKUBA UNIVERSITY DISCUSSED
Tokyo NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 7 Jan 81 n 4
[Text] Japan-U.S. Major Earthquake Experiment
_ Starting in March, the world's f irst large-scale experimental earthquake proof
plan--a Japan-U.S. joint research project--will be initiated at the Architectural
Research Laboratory (Director: Seiji Nakano). It is an attempt to apply major �
earthquake-scale tremor to a steel reinforced, seven storey building (medium size) -
in order to scientifically analyze its destructive force first hand and to explore
the possible factors that would make for a better earthquake proof design. ; -
This joint Japan-U.S. experiment is a three-year plan. As there had not been any
; major scale demolition experiment using an actual (medium size) building up until
_ now, it is drawing attention for earthquake proof building engineers and disaster
- specialists all over the world. Inadequate earthquake proof design was one of the
causes of loss of many lives in Algeria and Italy. Amidst the series of disasters
that struck, the ironic result was that moder.n buildings build recently offered no
resistance at all to the quakes.
Although Japan is a country known for its earthquakes, the United States as a whole
has had relatively few earthquakes, though there have been quakes on the West
Coast. In terms of earthquake proof building construction and their diffusion Japan
is more advanced, and the two countries differ in their expectations from the
current experiment, too. Japan and the United States also take differing approaches
to building design. In ,lapan, steel reinforced concrete pillars and cross-beams
are used and the space in between is filled with earthquake proof walls. In the
United States such cross-beam construction is either not used at all or else, a
section of the flooring is thickened to take the place of cross-beams. For this
reason, the representatives from the two countries had much discussion and debate
with regard to the design for the experimental building.
Moreover, it has been said that Japan's earthquake proof, safety technology has had
an element of over-kill. Such design is not only economically wasteful but at times
also reduces the earthquake resistance level, as well. On the other hand, the U.S.
standard has traditionally been too lax. Thus the United States has focused on
_ Japan's construction method which has paid ample consideration to the earthquake
= resistance/safety feature; and the chief aim of the current experiment is to obtain
' direct proof of the superiority of this construction method via earthquake resist-
ance experiment using an actual size building.
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The Architectural Research Laboratory Third Research Section Chief Tan Watanabe
states that, "Japan's earthquake safety level is set too high, and how much fat
we can trim off is one of the fact finding ob3ectives of the experiment. It is
said that 1 trillion yen worth of buidlings are constructed each year. If we can
shave off even 1 pexcent of concrete that is used, that would mean a substantial
saving."
This experiment originated when a U.S. earthquake proof engineer spotted the
Architectural Research Laboratory's "actual size experimental structural pillar."
A talk regarding cooperative research, personnel and information exchange followed,
- and in August 1979 an agreement to implement the project was concluded between
= the Ministry of Construction, Science and Technology Agency and the U.S. National
Science Foundation. Researchers from the University of California and the Univers-
- ity of Michigan took turns to come to Japan, and preparation for establishing the
world's first large-scale plan for earthquake praof experiment was set in motion.
The experiment will be conducted at the Life-size Structural Experiment Facility.
At this site, there is a solid concrete wall 25 meters high (from the base floor)
and 6.6 meters thick, and the experimental building will be constructed next to it.
It will be a 7-storey building (about 23 meters high) made of steel reinforced
concrete. It will have not only the structural prerequisites such as pillars and
beams but it will also have all the features of an actual building--outer and in-
terior walls, water pipes, drainage system, gas pipes and other interior plumbings.
In the space between the aforementioned wall and the experimental building, a power
jack operated by oil pressure will be installed. This jack will apply horizontal
vibration simulating earthquake tremors. In an actual earthquake, different floors
of the building will be subject to different tremor levels and thus, in order to
apply differing force to the floors, each floor will have a separate jack. The
uppermost floor, however, will have two jacks; and therefore, there will be a total
of eight jacks.
At present, the experimental building nas been concreted up to the sixth floor,
and the measuring devices will be installed soon. From about 15 March small
earthquake simulation tests--preliminary experiments--will be conducted and there-
after, great earthquake--the kind that comes every 200 years--simulation tests will
be carried out. After having destroyed the building to some extent, repairs will
be made and the type of earthquake that occurs every 10 years will be simulated and
the effectiveness of the outer and inner wall repairs will be examined. The testing
is expected to take the rest of the year.
This experiment is structured in such a way so that the progress of actual
earthquake destruction which takes only a few minutes are stretched out to 10,000
times the duration, which will enable careful observation. During the process
an industrial television will record the phenomenon in its entirety, and the dis-
tortion of pillars and beams, slant of floors, stress on concrete interior and
steel reinforcements will be quantitatively recorded. Moreover, the "fissure
_ measuring device" will measure the direction and location of cracks and record
the results in numerical terms.
Ample data anticipated from this project were not available at all previously,
and they will be very valuable. Analyses of these data will reveal the weak points
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of the building, and an economical and rational earthquake proof building design
method can be establish ed based on the project's findings. It is anticipated that
an internatiQnal technological standard for earthquake resistance/safety will
- eventually emerge from this experiment.
World's Foremost Artif icial Diamond
The Inorganic Materials Research Laboratory (Director: Kokichi Tanaka) is about
to take on a challenge of producing the world's largest (maximum crystal size: _
1 centimeter) diamond crystal. It has developed a super high pressure generator
_ device which will become the heart of synthetic diamond production, and preparation
for test productian is under way. As of now, testing will begin in April, and by
this summer, it is anticipated that a large man-made diamond which surpasses U.S.
General Electric Company's 5 millimeter size stone by far wi11 be fabricated.
Diamond, as evQr.yone is aware, is the hardest substance on earth. It is used in
planing metals such as aluminum and brass or finishing/polishing the inside of an
- automobile engine. According to the Ministry of Treasury's customs clearance
statistics, Japan imported about 19.2 million carat (1 carat = 0.2 gram) worth of -
- industrial diamond for these purposes during 1979. In monetary terms, this repre- _
sented approximately 16 billion yen. Japan surpassed West Germany in industrial.
diamond consumption volume and became the Number Two country, next to the United
States, as an industrial diamond consumer.
In order to respond to this kind of industrial need, the Inorganic Materials
' Research Laboratory has been conducting diamond synthesization research. Thus far,
it has successfullly established a diamond crystal growing technique which yields
3 millimeter size crystal through a termperature differential method. By following
- the same procedure Jap an--Inorganic Materials Research Laboratory and other insti- :
- tutions--has been able to consolidate a technology which enables mass production of `
0.3 millimeter size gems.
But demand for industr ial diamond is said to center around 1 millimeter size
_ synthatic stones--in part due to the dresser stone shortage, a substance said to
- be indispensable to th e precision machine processing. And the truth of the matter
has been that a 1 millimeter synthetic diamond is hard to make. For this reason,
the Inorganic Materials Reserach Laboratory project's auxiliary target is mass
production of 1 millimeter size synthetic diamonds which are in high demand indus-
trially through the use of a large facility for producing 1 centimeter stones. The
_ Inorganic Materials Research Laboratory Coordinator/Researcher Osamu Fukunaga, who
is engaged in creating high purity, high quality diamond and/or large size diamond, -
- speaks optimistically about the future: "At the present stage, the goal is in
sight."
The successful single crystal diamond production method up to now has involved the
following: Carbon atom is dissolved in metallic solute in the high temperature,
high pressure diamond stablization area and then redeposited. This method has two
- techniques--membrane growth technique and temperature differential technique. Both
deal with 50,000+ pressure and over 1300 centigrade temperature. As metallic
solute,nickel, cobalt, iron are used. As a method for synthesizing a large crystal,
the temperature differ entiaZ technique is thoughtto be the more appropriate of the
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- two alternative methods. The General Electric Corporation of the United States has
actually succeeded in getting a 5 millimeter (about 1 carat) crystal in one week.
_ It is transparent with a jewel-like quality and no peritectic substance. Moreover,
_ i.mpurities are appropriately under control. Colorless as well as yellow and blue
' crystals have been successfully synthes ized.
Meanwhile, the Inorganic Materials Research Laboratory has made a 3 millimeter -
size diamond using the same method. It has also obtained a high purity diamond in -
- which the atomic number of the impurity--nitrogen--is 1016 cubic centimeter. But
in Japan's case, "although the level of research is the third highest in the world,
_ exceeded only by the United States and the Soviet Union, we are beb.ind in terms of
practical application. This is due to problems regarding the diamond's qualityo"
(Coordinator/Researcher Fukunaga) This applies not only to man-made diamonds but
it can be said of fabrication of cubic crystal nitric boron which has a. crystal
structure similar to diamond and about the same hardness. That is, there is a gap
between the United States and Japan in terms of pressure accuracy--that is, in terms
of control technology.
- The super high pressure generator at the Inorganic Materials Research Laboratory is
- cut into 14,000 ton press and it can generate about 100,000 atmospheric pressure
for large test material and a maximum of 200,000 atmospheric pressure for small
= test material. This pressure generating chamber has an inside diameter of 25 ~
millimeters (effective diameter is 7 millimeters). Given this measurement, the 3
millimeter product that we have obtained from it is about its maximum production
capacity. _
For this reason, in order to meet thP challenge of synthesizing the world's largest =
artifical diamond, the Inorganic Materials Research Laboratory is workin,s to
develop a"flat belt" system whose growth chamber size is about 75 millimer.2rs--three
times the traditional pressure model growth chamber. This is not only the challenge
of obtaining a larger size. Creation of a high quality synthetic diamond is the
aim, and the plan is to reduce the nitrogen content of 100 ppm (which affects _
purity level) to 50 ppm and eventually down to 30 ppm.
At the present stage, equipment installation will begin in February. By July or
August at the latest, 1 centimeter paricle size, the world's f irst man-made diamand
will make its appearance. "If all goes well, we can manufacture them on a monthly _
order/production basis." (Coordinator/Researcher Fukunaga). It is expected that
this project will initiate new demands such as device pick-up equipments and
- semi-conductor`s heat radiation base. _
Nuclear Fusion Experiment Facility (TPE-2) _
High Beta Plasma Movement Explained
(Consolidated Electronics Technology Research Center)
- Nuclear fusion is thought to be the prospective core of the 21st century energy
source. The Energy Testing Wing of the Industrial Science & Technology Agency's
- Consolidaced Electronic Technology Research Center (Directora Tatsuji Nakajima)
is focusing its effort on the coating operation of the vacuum container which will
become the heart of "TPE-2"--Compressed Heat Nuclear Fusion Experiment Facility--the
so-called high beta pinch.
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- At present the great goals of Japan's nuclear fusion research are to construct an
experimental faci'-ity where the}� will test plasma to reach critical te?nperature,
and to realize lov* beta tokamak and reactor grade plasma which origi.liates from its
supplementary heat. But in order to create a nuclear fusion furna.ce via tokamak
facil:tty, beta �value of the plasma must be raised.
For this reasori, ur.der the Second Strata Basic Research Deve1 opment Plan promul-
gated by the Japan Atontic Energy Commission, the Consolidat.ed Electronic Technology
Research Center will take charge of the research concerning the high beta (torus)
equipinent, and research will be conducted with the goal of clarifying the high beta
plasma movement up to plasma tempecature of 10 n:illion degrees.
- With regard to JT-60 class Iarge size tokamak, at the present time, the United
States has the TFTR; in Europe, there is JET, ar.ci the So-viet Union has built T-15.
In all instances the next step of the testing facility will bring an increase in
construction cost resulting from going to a btgger facility. Thus, betterment of
plasma beta value is becoming more and mor.e important. 'The U.S.-Japan joint ex-
periment "Doublet III"--a large size, non-circular sectional tokamak--is a testament
- to its significauce.
_ The history of nuclear fusion research at the Consolidated Electronic Technology
- Research Center is longy and it has yielded many successful achieve-ments up to now.
- During the initial stage, an attempt was made Qn the tro idal screw pinch research.
High beta plasma ;as generated efficiently using the pinch effect, Lnd it was
locked up on the tokamak modE'L magnetic field. Th.e majer facility during the
initial sta-e (TPE-1) revealed that even for plasma with beta value of 10 pexcent
or so, stability factor musL- be mai.ntained against torsion (shear) instability as
in the case of low beta tokamak; and the name of Tokamak mode was given to this
phenomenon. In thisq Japan ied the world. In recent years, this kind of facility
is called high beta tokomak throughout the world.
� In addition, the same research produced Japan's f irst non-ciicular sectior.al
facility and proved the superioxity of high beta lock up. Recently, the Center
has employed a new method ca'led (TPE-1R), a nuclear fus ion research facility using
the "reverse magnetic f ield pinc�,h" and was successfui in locking up nuclear fusion
plasma with a high debree a� stability for the first time in Japanese history.
In this manner, the Consolidatecl Rlectronic Technology Research Center is conducting
. high beta plasma lcck up rESearch using axial symmetry torus magnetic field with a
view to cor.verting Tokamak model facility to a high beta unit. But in order to
- conduct tests at ever_ higher temperatures, it has starced to construct TPE-2
- (pressure heated nuclear fasion test facility). At present, it is hurrying to put
the finishing tuuches on the main electric discharge facility unit anri is planning
to begin preliminary tESting at the low magnetic fie'ld in late March.
According to the plan, the goal of *he magnetic field intensity test~~ is to loc:k
up approximately 4 million degree, beta value 10 percent p lasma for 0.4 milliseconds.
= Its aim is to clariry the high beta limits of Tokamak model plasma. Accordingly,
at the beginning of preliminary tests, "the expe:.iment will be considered a success
" if 1 million degree, beta value 10 percent pbe marketed by yearend for use
as a Feedstuff. (JEJ Jan. 20
issue.) "The SDK technology
features use of synthesis for the
first half and fermentation by
microorgarrism in the last half.
Industry sources believe tha'c
Mitsui Toatsu Chemicals, Inc.,
too; is planning amino acid ven-
tures. .
Elsewhere, Mitsui Petro-
chemical Industries, Ltd, is
trying cultivation of plant
tissues. Mitsubishi Petro-
chemical Co. has an interest in
mass production of an eniyme
by genetic engineering,, with
the product enzyme intended
for screening in the phar-
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
= NEW HYDROGEN-STORING ALLOY DEVELOPED
- Tokyo JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAI, in English 3 Mar 81 p 13
[Text] An efficient alloy for storing
_ hydrogen which is commercial-
ly feasible because of- its low
'preparation coat has been de-
veloped by Japan Metala &
Chemicals Co, of Tokyo and
' Ulvac Corp. of Chigasaki,
southwest of Tolryo, it was re-
cently learned.
Such alloys, made chiefly of
Won and titanium, are known
for their special ability to gen-
erate heat when they absorb
hydrogen andto suck up heat
' and cause reVigeration wben
they emit hydrogen. '
According to the two leading
Jspanese companies, respec-
rog~ bCCause , the- two metals are relatively low
tively in metallurgiml anff .
chemical production and in
vacuum englneering and hard-.
- ware production, the nQw alloy '
would find wide demand not
o.nly for building hydrogen stor-
age facillties, but for making
the heat source for aircondi-
- tioners, road and railway snow
and ice melting facilities, and
many other purposes. Hy- ~
drogen storage is an important
matter in the future develop- :
_ ment of hydrogen as a new non-
oll energy source.
The comyanies explained ~
that an iron-titanium alloy has
been considered the most rnm-
�mercially feasible for stqring.:
priced and their service lives in
absorbing $nd discharging hy-
drogen are longer than any
other.
But that alloy required ex-
pensive pre-processing ('Yac-
tivation") before application.
Becuuse of its slow speed in
reacting with hydrogen gas in
its original condltion, the alloy
had had to be "activated" be-
fore application in a vacuum
-char:*er filled with hyctrogen
gas for long hours under a high
temperature of around 400 de-
grees C. and a strong pressure
of about 65 atmospheees.
The two compani.es' joint
product is basically an alloy
also of iron and titanitun mixed
at a 50-50 ratio, but it contains
small amounts of zirconium
and niob dissolved in a
vacuum.
All it takes to activate the
new alloy is to keep it several
hotrs in a hydrogen gas-filled
vacuum chamber under normal
room temperature and a much
lower pressure. of 35 atmos-
pheres, thus ensuring a far
lower preparation cost and
much greater operating safety.
To be commercially produced
starzing next October, the new
alloy could sell for only V 4,000
to V 5,000 a kilogram if mass-
produced: " .
COPYRIGHT: 1981 THE NIHON KEIZAI SHINBUN, Inc.
CSO: 4120
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
RESTRIG'rIONS ON DNA STUDY TO BE RELAXED
Tokyo DAILY YOMiURI in English 1 Mar 81 p2
[Text]
An Education Ministry ad-
visory group has recom-
mended adding a third typs
of inedium !or studies on
gene recombination at Ja-
pan'a universities research
centers.
At present, Japan's re-
strictions on the study oi
recombinant DNR segments,
or "gene recombination" are
amon; the strictest in the
world, but the 3clence Ad-
visory Council has recom-
mended that Education biin-
ister Tatsuo Tanaka relax
these rules somewhat.
COPYRIGHT: THE JAPAN TIMES 1981
CSO: 4120
99
The council has suggested
that hay bacilli be added to
the list oi media which Ja-
pan allows for use in the
studies.
The hay bacilli, bacillus
subst:lis-I68, are a variable
strain which cannot llve in
natural surroundings wlth-
out a speciflc amino aciii in
its environment.
The bacilli are now used
in producing fermented soy-
besns and some other
Savoring items in Japan
and the science council
said they are aLso quite
suitable for gene, recombi-
ttatiun study.
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I SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
I
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BRIEFS
SMALLEST TURBOCHARGER MADE--What is believed to be the worldTs tiniest turbo-
~ charger, usable for small cars of 1,000 to 1,800 cc piston displacement, has
been developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. of Tokyo. MHI's new tur-
bocharger, coming in two varieties, Model TC03 for engines of 15 to 65 horse-
- power, and Model TC04 for those of 22 to 100 horsepower, which have turbine
blade revolutions of 210,000 and 190,000 r.p.m., respectively. They are us-
able for both gasoline and diesel engines of not only small cars but motor-
cycles, smaller farm tractors and smaller power boats, according to a MHI
spokesman. The new product is to follow up MHI's earlier-developed, also
the world's smallest, type of turbocharger for engines of 30 to 150 horae-
power, Model TC05. The new turbocharger weighs only 3 to 3.5 kgs, compared
with 4 kga for Mod.el TC05. An initial monthly output of 500 to 1,000 units
= is expected, aub3ect to demand. [Text] [Tokyo JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL in
English 3 Mar 81 p 13]
CSO: 4120
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