JPRS ID: 9570 USSR REPORT HUMAN RESOURCES

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• Sequence Number: 53
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/9570
24 February 1981
USSR RP ort
p
_ HUMi~?N RESO~IRCES
CFOLlO 1 /81)
FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
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JPRS L/9570
24 February 1981
- USSR REPORT
HUMAN RESOURCES
(FOUO 1/81)
CONTENTS
DEMOGRAPHY
' Br~ik on Ethno-Demographic Processes in the USSR
(S. I. Bruk; ISTORIYA SSSR, Sep-Oct 80) I
Population Geography Conference Outlines Main Areas of Study
(IZVESTIYA VSESOYUZNOGO GEOGRAFICHESKflGO OBSHCHESTVA,
May-Jun 80) 32
- a - [III - USSR - 38c FOUO]
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DEMOGRAPHY
- BRUK ON ETHNO-DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE USSR
Moscow ISTORIYA SSSR in Ruasian No 5, Sep-Oct 80 pp 24-47
[Article by S. I. Bruk: "Ethnv-Demographic Processesain the USSR - Based
on Postraar Census Materials"]
[Text] Rapid socioeconomic progress in our country is the foundation for
the unfolding of demographic processes in the Soviet Union. The socialist -
state follows a de~ographic policy whose purpose is to affect demograpfiic
processes in conformity with the needs of social development. "
The 24th and 25th CPSU congressesposed many questions related to demographic
policy. The report by A. N. Kosygin at the 25th CPSU Congress, entitled
"Basic Directions of Development of the National Economy for 1976-1980,"
emphasized ~he need for rational use ~f labor resources because natural
growth in the worle force will decrease ia the 1980's.l This report en-
visioned important demographic steps;2 many of them have already been
taken.
In his talk at the 3 April 1974 meeting to discuss the decree of the CPSU
Central Committee and USSR Council of Ministers entitled "Steps Towards the
Further Development of Agriculture of the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR,i3
the Accountability Report of the Central Committee at the 25tY. Party
Congress,4 and his statement at the October 1976 Plenum of ~he CPSU Central
Committee,5 L. i. Brezhnev poiated to the need to consider demograpfiic fac-
- tors in economic zzctivity and inflttence their devalopment more actively.
Postwar censuses testify to the enormous successes achieved by our country
in solving population proble~s during the period of developed socialism.
The primary results of the purposeful policies of the Communist Party and
~ Soviet Government make an impressive list: a higher rate of pogulation
growth than other developed countries; a sharp increase in longevity and a
reduction of the mortality rate (especially infant mortality); almost com-
, plete eradication of the consequences of th~ war in the age-sex structure
of the population; a steadily accelerating rate of urbanization and a whole
series of stegs to promote elimination of the fundamental differences be-
tween the city and the countxyside, between agricultural and industrial
labor; purposeful ~conomic and sociaS. measures to provide labor resources to
different regions of the country; profound culturat tranaformations whicli
eliminated the formerly great differences amang republica and provided a
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high level of cultural development for all peoples and social groups; the
merging and inter-nationality solidarity of the peoplea of our country as
the result of our Leninist nationality policy; and, the formation of a new
historical community, the Soviet people.
Soviet historians, ethnographers, economiats, and specialists in other
branches of science have devoted many works to ethnographic processes in the
- USSR based on the findings of the 1959 and 1970 censuses. Census materials
were used to a significant degree in such ma~or, general works as
_ "Sovremennyye Etnicheskiye Protsessy v SSSR" [Contemporary Ethnic Processes
in the USSR] (2nd ed, Moscow, 1977). There have also been special articles
devoted to this question.6
A regular census of the USSR population was carried out on 17 January 1979.
Previous general censuses in our country were made in 1897, 1920, 1926, 1939,
_ 1959, and 1970. The 1920 census, of course, was organized and conducted under
the direct guidance of V. I. Lenin. Specialists from different fields (statis-
ticians, economists, geographers, ethnographers, linguists, and others) have
participated actively 3n preparation for all the censuses and, in particular,
in working out the basic methodological issues.
The goal of the 1979 census was to determine the total population of the
_ country and its distribution by distinct populated points, rural Soviets,
cities, rayons, districts, oblasts, kray~, and republics; the composition of
the population by sex, age, family status, nationality, language, educational
= level, involvement in education, sources of the means of existence, occupa-
tion, distribution by sectors of the national economy and types of production, .
social groups, length of work, and other characteristics.
Censuses in the USSR use a broader program than in most countries of the
_ world. Specifically, in view of the needs of nationality anct cultural de-
velopment, the census programs include questions on the nationality, native
language, and other languages of the USSR peoples which the sub~ect of the
census sp~.aks fluently (the last ~uestion was firsC introduced in the 1970
census). None of the censusea conducted in other countries have so many~
ethni.c-linguistic questions (questions on native language are common, and
nationality is occasionally referred to, but only in a few cases is fluency
in a second language asked).
The program of the 1979 census was considerably broader than the program of
the preceding 1970 cenaus. It provides more detailed information on the
family. The question on marital status used to be phrased this way: "Are
you at present married (yes, no)?" Now the question is worded somewhat
differently: "Marital status: Married ; widow /widower; never married;
divorced; separared)." This new wordit,g of the question is extremely im-
= portant from the standpoint of analyzing demographic trends.
The census contains a new question that perwits more accurate forecasts of
the birth rate: " For women - tell how many children you have had."~ With- ~
out such data scientists were unable to anticipate the sharp drop in the
birthrate that occurred in the early or mid-1960's in moet of the developed
' ~ countries of the world and led c?uring the 1970's tQ deaths exceeding births i
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in a number of Central and Weatern European countries. The most recent cen- `
aus includes a question that is very important for determining population
mobility: "Length of continuous residence in the particular populated point."
A vast program of processing census f indings is planned. But even now, when
only the first general resulta have been published 8 we can take note of the
great political, economic, and scientific importance of the census. Its
findings will provide practical workers and acientists wi.th the data neces-
sary to plan continued development of our country.
In comparison with the ongoing count, the census provides supplementary in-
formation necessary for efficient management of the economy and society.9
The on~oing count lacks such information ae: number of families in the
country and their composition; population sizes of various peoples living in
the country; the number of people who consider a particular language their
native language. The census makes it possible to obtain comprehensive,
multifaceted descriptions of the population which are extremely important
for determining the size and comgosition of labor resources, establishing
the nature of population reproduction in coming decades, and so on. A com-
parison of thia material against the material of earlier censuses will
permit careful analysis of ethnodemographic proceases occurring in the USSR
during the period of developed socialism and sound forecasts of the �uture. -
Dynamica and Natural Growth of Population
The population of the USSR on 17 January 1979 was 262,436,000 per~ons (in-
cluding permanent population and foreigners temporarily residing ici tTie
_ country). The permanent population which was used to calculate figures for
the social and econ~mic structure of the population was 262,080,000.10
The population of our country (within current borders) has chaz~ged as fol-
lows:ll
1913 - 159,200,000
1917 - 163,000,000
1940 - 194,100~000
1950 - 178,500,000
1959 - 208,800,000
1970 - 241,700,000
~ 1979 - 262~400,000
. Despite the enormous losses associated with two world wars and the civil war,
our country's popularion has grown quite rapidly. On the eve of the Great
~ Patriotic War the USSR had 31.1 million (or 19.1 percent) more people that
~ prerevolutionary Russia; in 1979 the country had 99.4 million (or 51.0 per-
cent) more than prerevolutionary Russia.
~ The USSR lost more than 20 million peraons during World War II. The so-
called indirect losses (decrease in the birth rate and increase in the
~ mortality rate) were also substantial. Population did not regsin the pre-
' war level until early 1955, nine and one-half years after tfie war's end.
In the next 24 years the p~pulation of the country increased 68.3 million or
35.2 percent, ani average annual growth during this time was almost 3 million.
. ~
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- In the last nine years, between the two most recent censuses, tfie population _
increased 20.7 million, which is 2.3 million a year (average annual growth
was 0.92 percent a year).
The changes in population in the Union republice over the last 29 years cati
be seen from the figures in Table 1.
The population of tfie republics of Central Asia and the Transcaucasas as well
as Kazakhstan taken together more than doubled between 195Q and 1979 (tfie in-
crease waa 117.8 percent), while tfie increase in population was ~ust 24 per-
cent in the Belorussian SSR, 31.6 percent in the Baltic republics, 35.6 in
the RSFSR, 36 percent in the Ukraine, and 72.4 percent tn Moldavia. Quite
marked differences can be obaerved in population dynamics within republics ,
- also. In the RSFSR between 1939 and 1979 population growth was 133 percent
= in the Far East, 73 percent in Eastern Siberia, 50 percent in the North
Caucasus, 48% in the Urals, and 40 percent in Western Siberia; at the same
_ time the population of the Volga-Vyatka regions dropped by four percent and
the population of the Ce~tral Chernozem zone decreased by 17 percent� In
the Ukraine the population of the southern region rose by 40 percent while
that of the southwest increased only nine percent. In Kazakhstan ~he popula-
tion of Pavlodarskaya and Kz-ragandinskaya oblasts increased 300'~50 percent ~
while the population of Gur'yevskaya, Alma-Atinskaya, and Ural'r~kaya oblasts
rose only 30-50 percent.12
The population in the autonomous national regions also grew unevenly. Between
1940 and 1979 the population rose 36.9 percen~ in tfie autonomous republics,
47.2 in the autonomous oblasts, and 127.1 percent in the autonomous okrugs.
The greatest population growth was observed in Lhe Komi ASSR (:i.5 times),
the Yakut ASSR (more than doubled), and the republics of the North Caucasue
and Transcaucasus (15-90 percent); the amallest growth was observed iri the
Volga republics (in most of them population grawth was ~ust 15-20 percent,
and population actually dropped 15 percent in the Mordvinian ASSR).13
In the period from 1970 to 1979 population continued to grow rapidly in the
republics of Central Asia, Azerbai~an, and Armenia, increasing by 23.3 per-
cent at the same time as population of the RSFSR, Ukraine, and Belorussia
rose just 5.7 percent. Significant differences in population dynamics could _
also be obsetved within the republics. Bet~reen 1970 and 1979 there was an
increase in population of 17.9 percent in the Far East, 10.5 percent in the =
North Caucasus, and 9.3 percent in East Siberia; at the same time the popula- -
_ tion of the Volga-Vyatka region decreased by 0.5 percent and the population -
of the Central Chernozem zone drnpped 2.5 percent. In tfie Ukraine the popu-
~ lation of the southern region rose 11.8 percent while tTiat of the southwest
increased ~ust 4.3 percent.
The population of the autonomous national regions also grew unevenly. Thus,
in the last nine years the population of the Yakut ASSR rose 26 percent,
while population in the Ko~i, Tuva, Kaba~dino-Balkarskaya, and Dagestanskaya
ASSR's rose 14-16 percent. Population increase in the Bashkir, Mari, and -
Karelian ASSR's wae only 1-3 percent, and the population of tfie Mordvinian -
ASSR dropped four percent during thia period. Popu~.ation ie growing very
fast in certain autonomous okrugs where large mineral deposits are being
developed. The population of the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nene~s sutonomous
okrugs doubled in the nine-year period.14
5
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The uneven growth of population for particular reasons is explained by dif-
ferences in both natural and mechanical factors. Before tfie war (and also -
after for~certain regiona) the latter factor was decisive in f luctuations
in population growth by regions. During industrialization ~f the USSR popu�
lation moved to the underdeveloped regions. In recent decades differences in
population growth for nost regions of the USSR have resulted mainly from re-
production characteristics: the ratio between the birth rate and tFie mortality
rate .
Data on population reproduction (birth rate, mortality rate, and natural
growth) are not directly singled out during conduct of the census, but it is
possible to make indirect ~udgements concerntng tiieir influence on tfie dy- _
- namics and location of population, change in nattonality composition, and
numerous other indicators (aee Tahle 2 belo~~.
~ Table 2. Natural Change in Population in USSR Territory~
1913-1978 (per 1,000 population)*
Year Births Deaths Natural Growtfi
1913 45.4 29.1 16.4
1926 44.0 20�3 23�~
- 1940 31.2 18.0 13.2
1950 26.7 9.7 17.0
1960 24.9 7.1 17.8
1965 18.4 7.3 11.1
1970 17.4 8.2 9.2
1975 '.8.1 9.3 8.8
1977 13.1 9.6 8.5
~ 19?8 18.2 9.7 8.5
*"Narodnoye Khoz3?ayetvo SSSR v 1978g.", op. cit., p 24.
The conc~rn of the Soviet State for comprehenaive development of the indi-
vidual, the high level of education and culture, full employment of the
entire able-bodied population, and the steady growth in the standard of living
of Soviet people have had an enormous impact on the d~rectic.~ of dec?ographic
processes and radically change the parameters of the birth rate~ mortality
" rate, longevity, and natural growth.
Before the October Revolution Russia had a high rate of population growth
(one of the highest in the world at that time), despite a significant mor-
tality rate. This was based on a very high birth rate. With t~e reduction -
in the mortality rate after the revolution (the birth rate also decreased
in the firat two decadea of Soviet power, but not significantly), growtfi be-
~ came ~ven greater.
Abrupt changes in the structure of natural growth appeared after World War II.
Already by 1950, just five years aft~2r the bloody and devastating war, the
country had managEd to reduce the mortality rate to barely one-tialf of the
1940 rate. This was accomplished chiefly by a shax?p decrease in infant
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~ mortality (in 1930 269 infants out of 1,~J00 died hefore reaching 12 months of
age; in 1940 it was 167, in 1950 - 81, in 1960 - 35, and in recent years -
23-27).15
The decade of the 1950's had a stable hirth rate (ranging from 24.9 to 26.7
births per thousand populati~n in different years), a decrease in th.e mor- -
~ tality rate (from 9.7 to 7.2), and fairly high natural growth ;be*ween 17.0
1 and 18.1). During this period tfie Soviet Unien had one of the lowest figures
for overall mortality rates and one of the highest figures for natural growth.
among the highly developed countriea.
The demographic situation changed greatly in the first half of the 1960's
when the average annual birth rate declined by 5--7 fiirths per 1~000 popula-
tion, the mortality rate stabilized at its earlier level or even rose
slightly (reflecting a sharp increase in the proportion of older people in
~ the population), and natural growth went down from 17.8 per 1,000 population
in 1960 to 9.7 in 1967. Natural growth in population remained almost un-
changed for the next decade (a slight increase in the birth rate was vir-
tually matched by an increase in the mortality rate). On the average between
1973 and 1978 the birth rate in the USSR wae 18.1 per 1,000 population per
year, while the mortality rate was 9.2 and natural growth was 8.9.
Despite these changes in demographic ~ndicatora, the USSR today continues to
have a low overall mortality rate and a higher rate of natural growth than
- most of the developed capitalist countriea, which have seen a rapid decline
in natural growth in recent years. Thus, the dierage annual natural growth
in the other countries of Europe during the 1970's was 4.2 per 1,000 popu-
lation (with a birth rate of 14.4 and a mortality rate of 10.2), including
, growth of ~ust 1.2 per 1,000 population in the countries of Western and
Northern Europe. The number of deaths has exceeded the number of births in
recent years in West Germany, Austria, Luxemburg, and certain other countries.
Natural population growth in 1978 was 6.5 per 1,000 population in the United
States, 7.9 in Canada, 8.1 in Australia, 8.4 in New Zealand, and 8.7 per 1,000
population in Japan.16 Natural growth in these countriea is lower than in
the USSR, even though most of them have received significant numbers of
young immigrants, whose natural growth is higher than that of the local popu-
lation.
The general mortality rate in the USSR has decreased to barely two-sevenths
of the prerevolutionary level (one-eleventh for infant mortality); it fias
been cut in half since 1940. A decrease in the mortality rate is observed for
- all age groups. This has resulted in an increase in longevity from 32 years
in 1896-97 to 44 yeara in 1926-27, 50 years in 1938-39, and 70 years (64 for
men and 74 for women) in 1971-72.17
As for the slight decline in the birth rate, it can be explained by the his-
torical tendency, observed in all countries, for this indicator to decline
from the biological maximum toward a level determined by conscious control
of family size.
Natural population growth is higher in rural areas, which can be explained by
~ the higher birth rate there (the mortality rate is almost tfie same in the
~
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cities and the countryside). In 1913 the birth rate was 60 percent higher in
the countryside than in the city (48.8 and 30.2 births per 1,000 population.
respectively). In the years before World War II and the first years after the
war the birth ratesin the cities and countryside were almost the same, but
in the mid-1950`s they again became markedly different. In 1960 the rural
_ birth rate was 27.8 per 1,000 population, while in the urban communities it
was 21.9; corresponding figures for 1975 were 21.1 and 16.1; for 1970 they
were 18.7 and 16.4; and, for 1978 the figures were 20.1 and 17.1 births per
thousand population.18
The differences in population reproduction (especially birth rate) are much
greater when broken down by Union republics (see Table 3 below).
Fluctuation in the birth rate by republics was relatively small before World
War II. The figures in Table 3 refute the widespread idea that the btrth -
rate in Central Asia and the Caucasus has always been mucfi Tiigfier than in
the other regions of the country. In 1940 only Armenia and Kazakhstan had
a much higher birth rate than the USSR average while Estonia and Latvia -
were f ar below average (these two republica have been distinguished by a
low birth rate for many decades). There was little change in 1950 either,
when Moldavia joined the group of republics with high birth rates and the
birth rate in Armenia declined significantly. But after 1950 a sharp dif- e
ferentiation in birth ratea bagan between Lhe republics of Central Asia and
the Transcaucasus (except fo~ Georgia, where the birth rate has never been
particularly high) on the one hand, and the otfier republics�on the other.
The decline in the birth rate which began in the 1960's basically involved
only the second group of republics. The birth rate in the Central Asian
republics today ia more than twice as high as the birth rate of th~ RSFSR,
Ukraine, Belorussia, and Baltic republics and 50 percent higher than in
the other republica.
The differences between republics are even greater in terma of levels of
natural growth, and the differences are increasing as time passes !gee
Table 4 below) .
Many factors influence this indicator, but it appears tfiat taro are dectsive:
all the republicswith high birth rates have a htgTisr percentage of rural
population and a tradition of early marriages (ebpecially for women).
The marxiage rate (number of marriages registered per 1,000 population) in ,
the USSR is slightly over 10 (10.7 in 1978),19 but tfiere are significant
regional differences in this indicator. It is lower in the republics with.
a high birth rate where the percentage of chtldren is Figher (the marriage
rate in the Transcaucasus and Central Asia in 1970 was 6.8-9.2~.20
The extension of the student years, particularly the spr~ad of higher educa-
_ tion, causes people to enter marriage today at a more n?ature age than before.
The number of married persons in the 16-19 qear age group (per 1,000 persons
of the particular aex and age) has changed as follows in recent years:21 -
Year Men Women
1939 27 140
1959 26 112
1970 21 lOS
8
FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000300080053-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040340080053-2
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