JPRS ID: 9512 JAPAN REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000300070047-0
• Release Decision: RIF
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 37
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 47
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/9512
28 January 1981
- Japan Report
(FOUO 7/81)
FgI~ FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
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NOTE
JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign
newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency
_ transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from fore ign- language
sources are translated; those from English-language sources
are transcribed or reprinted, with the,original phrasing and
~ other characterisrics retained.
Headlines, editori.al reoorts, and materi-al enclosed in brackets
[J are supplied by JPRS. Yroc2ssing indicators such as [Text]
or [Excerp*] in the tirst line of each item, or follow ing the
last line of a brieL, indicate how the original information was
processed. Where tio processing indicator is given, the infor-
mation was summarized or extra=ted.
Unfamiliar names rendered phonetical]yo ur transliterated are
enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques-
tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the
original but have been supp.lied as oppropriate ir. context.
- Oth er unattributc.d parenthetical notes within the body of an
- item originate with the source. Times within items are as
given by source.
' The contents of this publication ici no way represent the poli-
cies, views or attitucles of the U.S. Government.
COPYRIGHT LAWS AIv'D REGULATIONS GOVERIVING OWNERSHIP OF
MATERLALS REPRODUCED HEREIV REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION
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JPRS L/9512
28 January 1981
JAPAN REPORT
(FOUQ 7/81)
CONTENTS
- ECONOMIC
Bridgestone Targets U.S. Aircraft Tire Market
- ( NII{KEI SANGYO SHMUN, 17 Nov 80 ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
SCIENCE AND TECHNOIAGY
N-II Rocket To Be I,aunched in February
(DEMPA SHINIDUN, 11 Dec 80; IJIHICEI SANGYO SHIMBUN, 5 Dec 80)...... 3
- Used Por Launching Satellites ,
- Safety Assured
= New Ceramic; Multiprocessor; Facsimi.le Comunication System Developed
(1VIKKEI ELECTRONICS, 8-Dec 80) 6
New Developments in Japa.nese El.ectrqnics Industry
(PTIHI{EI II,ECTRONICS, 8 Dec 80) 10
- Level of 'Technology' Questioned; Originality I,acking
(Katsuto Uchihashi; BUNGET SHUNJU, 19 Dec 80) 13
- a - [III - ASIA - 111 FOUOJ
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ECONOMIC
BRIDGESTONE TARGETS U.S. AIRCRAFT TIRE MARKET
Tokyo NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBUN ir._ Japanese 17 Nov 80 p 9
, [Text] Bridgestone Tire starts, in full scale, export to the United States
of aircraft tires which require highly sophisticated r_echnoloby to fulfill
- their performance requirements. Already, United Airlines with the largest
supgly of aircraft in the free world and other airline companies have prac-
, ticalZy completed perfarmance evaluatioYZS. Bridgestone projects the export
of tires for large passenger airliners and transports to be opened for busi-
- ness some time between the end of this year and next year. The company
shares 15 perceat of the European aircraft tire market. Based upon this
achievement, Bridgestone intends to advance into the United States, aiming
to pocket a 30 percent share of the U.S. market which is said to enjoy an
annual new demand of over 30,000 tires.
_ Bridgestone Tire started exporting aircraft tires to Europe in 1972, and g-as-
_ ently receives purchase orders from all major airline companies, Lufthansa,
British Airways, Scandinavian Airlines, Sabenay KLM, eLc. Tires exported ar2
pr:imarily installed on large-size aircraft, DC9, DC10, Boeing 727, Boeing 737,
Boei.ng 747, Tristar 1011, etc. The annual demand in Europe for large-size
aircraft tires is about 25,000 tires, and last year, this company gained a
- 25 percent share of the market. Their share is increasing yearly.
- Export to the United States started around 1978 when tires were delivered to
various U.S. airlines on a test basis for performance evaluation trom techni-
cal and economical aspects. Though U.S. airlines tend to stress not only the
quality of the product but also the economical efficiency in particular,
Bridgestone tires this year have passed the performance evaluation tests on.e
after another given by United Airlines, to begin with, Eastern Airlines, Fron-
- tier Airlines and Texas International Airlines. This success paved the way
for the beginning of full scale export. Additionally, Pan AmQrican is currently
- conducting a performance evaluation.
- In the last couple of years, Uniroyal and Firestone h3ve retreated successively
_ and Goodrich and Goodyear have emerged virtually to monopolize the American
aircraft tire market by themselves. Bridgestone Tire is scheming to snuggle
up to share the market, and is hoping to "secure a 30 percent share of the
market in the future."

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_ In the large size aircraft tire business, competition for weight reduction
and miniaturization is intensifying. Simultaneously, safety which can endure
the breaking forces is required. Bridg:~stone Tire installed a large tester
built in accordance with the U.S. Federal Aircraft Bureau's standard in their
Tokyo plant, and succeeded by repeated testing in producing tires which
- passed the performance evaluation of each company.
_ In parallel to the expansion of exports to the iJnited States, Bridgestone is
- planning to seek a tie-up with an aircraft Cire retread (reclaimed tires)
maker. Worn aircraft tires ar.e retreadable about five times, and retreading
service is a deciding factor for making the tire sales.
Japanese industries entertain nigh hopes for expanding aircraft exports, and
pledge, "Af ter automobiles, send aircraft." Bridgestone Tire intends to
- monopolize the market when Japanese aircraft exports advance into a full-
- scale operation, by implanting beforehand an international image for their
aircraft tires through the expansion of their exports to the United States.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1980
8940
CSO: 8129/0296
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SC~~QC~ tAND TECHNOLOGX
N-II ROCKET TO BE LAUI3CHED IN FEBRUARY
Used for Launching Satellites
Tokyo DIIKPA SHI'LGUN in Japanese 11 Dec 80 p 2
[Text] Jn the lOth, it was officially decided that the first liftoff of the
- large liquid rocket "N-II" is scheduled for 4 February of next year. The
_ rocket has been developed by the National Space Development Agency to be used
= for launching satellites for practical use such as the meteorological satellite
"Himawari." This target date was confirmed after the Space Activities Commis-
= fton (chairman, Director Nakagawa of Science and Technology Agency) acknowledged
the rocket launching plan for January and February of the next year presented by �
the NASDA and the Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science uf the University
of Tokyo.
' The N-II is the latest rocket with a stationary satellite launching capacity
approximately 2.5 times larger than the currently used N rockets. A station-
ary satellite such as "Himawari" used extensively for weather forecasting and
- an experimental communications satellite "Sakura" weigh about 350 kg, and they
- require launching services rendered by the United States. However, the comple-
_ tion of N-II makes it possiblq to launch these satellites from Japan.
- N-II is a 3-stage system rocket with a total length of 35 meters and a total
weight of 32 tons. The greatest feature is the h~gh precision "inertial guid-
- ance system" loaded on the first stage to control the flight. The cost of the
: one rocket amounts ta about 10 billion yen.
, N-II rocket No 1 to bE launched from Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima
- Prefecture will carry a Mode1 4 engineering test satellite. This satellite is
_ used to verify the N-II performance and ta test space machinery and equipment
such as the newly developed plasma engine. With the success of rocket No 1,
= the launching of a stationary meteorological satellite No 2 which is the same
as "Himawari," will be the challenge for next summer.
= Besides these attempts, the NASDA will ].iftoff small "TTSOOA" rocket No 2
- during this experimental period to conduct metal material tests such as com-
= pounding a new allo; in space.
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On the other hand, the University of Tokyo plans to launch a scientific
satellite No 7 using a Mu 3S rocket No 2 from Kagoshima Space Laboratory,
Uchinoura, Kagoshima Prefecture. Solar activiCies will be most vivid from
~ thE end of this year to the beginning of the next year, and this satel.lite
will be launched in conjunction with these predicted activities in order to
closely observe solar superficial explosions
COPYRIGHT: Denpa Shimbunsha 1980
- Safety Assured
- 'rokyo NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese S Dec 80 p 15
[Text] The Third Subcommission (Chairman Tsutomu Ashida, president of Fukui
Institu*_e of Technology) of Space Activities Commission, which has been inves-
tigating the safety of the N-II rocket to be launched for the first time from
Tanegashima Space Center by the National Space Development Agency in January
; or February of next year, has finally concluded recently that "The safety can
be fully assured under the present warning zone and radio systems." The NASDA
after being informed of this good news, will engage in full-scale preparation
- for the liftoff. N-II rocket is a 3--stage rocket which can launch a satellite
weighing about 350 kg into a stationary orbit, and is one size larger than N-I
rocket which has been used to launch satellites for practical use in the 1970's.
It is characterized by the designs f.or augmenting the solid supplementary
rocket, for enlarging the first stage propellant tank, for upgrading the per-
formance of the second stage liquid rocket and for improving the precision of
the guidance and control system (inertial guidance).
The NASDA is planning to use this rocket to launch meteorological satellites,
broadcast satelliCes and communications satellites scheduled for the first
half of 1980's. Rocket No 1 has just been completed recently, and it has been
so arranged that early next year a test satellite will be launched to a perigee
_ height of 230 km and an apogee height of 36,000 lan.
With this in the background, the Third Subcommission has been investigating
the safety associated with the launching, especially the affects on the neigh-
- boring area if and when missions fail and fuels explode on Che ground or satel-
lites deorbit and fall away in the middle of a mission.
There are 3 major ditferen^es concerning the safety evaluation between rockets
- N-I and N-II: (1) a sizeabie increase of propellant (an increase of solid
supplementary rockets from 3 to 9, an increase of the second stage propellant
from 4,730 kg to 6,000 kg and an increase of the third stage motor propellant
- from 560 kg to 1,500 kg); ('L) a change of flight Fath; and (3) a discontinuance
of security command (commarid radio) transmission.
Up to the present, the warning zone set up by the Tanegashima Space Center for
the launching day was within 2.2 km radius from the liftoff site. "Even if all
the stages of the rocket explode simultaneously on the ground, the blast
_ pressure along the outer edge of the warning zone will never harm human bodies
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and will hardly demonstrate any effects on materials. The area to be affected
- by radiant heat and fallout is estimated narrower than the area to be affected
by the blast," they said, and concluded that the warning zone set in the past
- would be sufficient to accommodate the potential power of the increased
propellant.
- Also, for assuring safety when rockets fall to earth, a radio link (wireless
communication circuit between a rocket and a ground station) is necessary to
detect abnormal conditions of the rockets and accordingly provide safety mea-
sures. From the N-I launching experiences, this link will be accommodated if
the angle of elevation of the ground station antenna is above 2.5 degrees.
- Consequently, the currently available communicat3on system is said to provide
the radio link without fail.
In respect to the security command issue, an inertial guidance system which is
nore reliable than the radio guidance for the N-I, is adopted for the N-II, and
- the Subcammission also conc].uded that this system was imune from any sa�ety
- problems.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Sangyo Shimbunsha 1980
8940
CSO: 4105
5
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
NEW CERAMIC; MULTIPROCESSOR; FACSIMILE COMMUNICATION SYSTEM DEVELOPID
Tokyo NIKKEI ELECTRONICS in Japanese 8 Dec 80 pp 95-96
[Text] Ceramic, Hybrid IC, Mounting Technique
Ceramic Mounting Base:Board Having a Thermal Conductivity as :iigh as 0.7 cal/cm-
s-�C
A ceramic having both high thermal conductivity and good electric: insulating
property, thermal conductivity as high as 0.7 cal/cm-s-�C and specific resis�-
tance as great as 2 x 10132-cm, has been developed by the Hitachi Research Lab
of the 'Hitachi Works. This ceramic consists of SiC and its thermal expansion
coefficient is apprcximately the same as that of Si crystal. The said company
is carrying out an investigation concerning its application as a mounting base
board of high density and high power IC. This new ceramic has a thermal con-
ductivity between those of Cu and A1. 'The thermal conductivity of Cu and A1
are 0.9 and 0.56 cal/cm-s-�C, respectively. The thermal conductivity of this
new ceramic is 10 times b2tter than an ordinary ceramic, alumina (0.05 cal/
cm-s-�C), which is being widely used as thin or thick filn hybrid IC base
baard. For example, the thermal conductivity of beryllia is 0.62 cal/cm-s-�C.
However, its thermal expansion coefficient of 8.0 x 10-6 1/�C is large compared
~ with 3.5-4.0 x 10-6 1/�C fur Si single crystal. In centrast, the thermal expan-
sion coefficient of SiC ceramic is 3.7 x 10'6 1/�C which is comparable wlth that
- of Si single crystal. The thermal expansion coefficient of alumina is also large,
6.5-7.5 x 10-6 1/�C. Therefore, SiC base boards are especially suitable for
parts with large area or for direct bonding of pellets where heat dissipation
is an important factor. An ordinary SiC has a relatively small specific resis-
tance of the order of 5-50 S2-cm and its thermal conductivity is also small, of
the order of 0.15 cal/cm-s-�C. The said research laboratoxy has not yet made
it clear why it was able to raise both its thermal conductivity and specific
resistance. Its commercialization is-expected to be realized within 1 year at
the earliest or 2 years at the latest. Its price is expected to bs 20-30 per-
cent higher than alumina.
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Microprocessor, Multiprocessor, Pattern Recognition
Development of Multiprocessor Consisting of 33 CPU
_ A parallel processing system consisting of 33 microprocessors has been developed
by Tokyo Industrial University.
The microprocessors used are Z-80 microprocessors. One of which is used as the
master processor and the other 32 are used as the slave processors. Its main
application is the high speed processing such as similarity calculation and
extraction of characteriatics as often encountered in the pattern information
processing. Since the calculation involves a great deal of integration and
_ summation, a special LSI (TDC 1008J of TRW) is added to each processor in
- order to improve its speed. The master processor and its slave processors are
coupled by both common bus and variable ring. The coummon bus is used for high
" speed master-slave and slave-slave transfer. The variable ring is somewhat
slower than the common bus. It is used for local transfer between adjacent -
processors using a ring-shape transfer circuit of variable length. It is
suitable for data transfer during sorting and FFT computation. A single slave
system can carry out an inner product of two 256 dimensional vectors in
- approximately 400 us. The system as a whole can solve a system of 128 dimen-
sional,first order, simultaneous equatioris 20 times in 1 second. Programming
; uses an extended C language.
Facsimile, Electrostatic Recording
High Speed Facsimile With a Resolving Power of 16 dot/mm and a Recordir,g Rate
of 1 ms/line
_ A high speed facsimile device having a main scan resolving power of 16 dot/mm,
an auxiliary scan resolving power of 15.4 line/mm, a reading rate of 2 ms/line,
and a recording rate of 1 ms/line has been developed jointly by the Matsushita
Electrical Transmission Equipment and the Matsushita Electrical Industry. The
device has a keyboar.d, and is suitable for application in a data network with a
data transmission rate of 56 kbyte/sec or less. High efficiency coding is
achieved by means of 2-line bundle run length coding format. The transmission
control program uses HDLC. The reader section uses 2 sets of 2048 byte self-
scan type CCD (MN8027 of Matsushita Electric Industry) in order to realize a
reading rate of 2 mw/line. The recording section uses multistylus electrostatic
recording format. The diameter of a single recording stylus is 40 um, and 4096
- such styli are arranged with a gap of one-sixteenth mm between styli (a total
width of 256 mm). The high recording rate of 1 ms/line is achieved by making
_ the electrostatic capacity of the electrode sma11.
Nonvolatile Memory
- Lower Voltage Nonvolatile Memory Made Possible From Introduction of Band-gap
Gra3ient in the Insulation Film
An attempt to lower the writing and erasing voltage of a nonvolatile memory cell
of floating gate type by imparting a gradient to the energy banii-gap of the first
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insulation film from 7.9 to 5.1 eV was made by the Fuji Comnunications
Research Laboratory, and the results will be presented at the 1980 Inter-
national Electron Devices Meeting to be held in Washington, D.C.r in the
United States on 8 December. The first insulation layer is formed from
direct nitriding of the Si base board followed by oxidation. Its structure
is of mixed fil.m-oxide film type consisting of Si base board-nitride film-
nitride film plus oxide film. The band-gap changes gradually from 7.9 eV
at the oxide film to 5.1 eV at the nitride film. The thickness of the insula-
tion film is approximately 10 nm. Writing is made easier by reducing the
- band-gap of the insulation film on tine Si base board side, while the holding
characteristics are maintained by leaving the gap of the insulation film on
the polycrysCalline Si side intact. Writing and erasing can be done with
voltages of 10 V/10 ms and 12 V/10 ms, respectively.
Facsimile, Communication Method
Facsimile Communication System With Data-Image Transformation Capability Being
Developed
Nippon Denki is in the process of developing a coumunication system which is
_ capable of transforming variou;, informations stored in a data base into facsi-
mile image information.
i This is a union berween facsimile communication system and on-line data communi-
cation system. It made possible access to the dat3 base contained in a data
~ network from a facsimile terminal. Placing an image transformation subsystem
between the facsimile network and the data network, services such as construc-
tion of fixed format documents or graphs including stock market information
and sales information can be offered. An inquiry from a facsimile terminal to
the data base causes transformation of various graphs or sentences into image
- information nf a synthesis of these as a response. The image transformation
subsystem consists of minicomputer (NEAC-MS50) and 20 Mbyte disk containing
patterns for carrying out the data-to-image transformation. The data network
interface at the rate of 4.8 kbyte/sec and the facsimile network interface at
the rate of 48 kbyte/sec. At present, a system to be installed at the Yaiuato
Securities and expected to begin servica next August is being developed. The
- inquiry-response time between facsimile terminal and data base takes approxi-
mately 4 minutes.
Semiconductor Manufacturing Technique, Etching, Microprocessing
High Selectivity Etching of Polycrystalline Si Without Side-Etching
The Central Research Laboratory of the Hitachi Works revealed in a technical
exhibition held by the said company a method of etching palycrystalline Si
using microwave plasma. By this method, the base material S102 can be*etched
with a high selectivity (a measure of etching rate difference) of 30-100 times
- with very little side-etching (etching in the lateral direction). The selec-
tivity of a photostat is of the order of 6-10 times, while that of Si3N4 film
is 10-30 times. The gas used is SF6. With a 2.45 GHz microwave (60-80 W),
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_ discharge becomes possible at a pressure as low as 10 4 torr. On account of
the low pressure, the mean free path is longer and the ionization ra:io is
higher. The ions which participate in the etching act3on will be injected
vertically into the base plate. The ions become directional due to an ion
sheath (a voltage difference of approximately 20 V and approximately 0.1 mm
in length) formed on the surface of the base Flate and, as a result, side-etch
effect is significantly reduced. Since the injection energy used is a relatively
- small 20 V, the base plate is seldom damaged by it. Moreover, since the ioniza-
- tion rate is high, the rate of gas flow can be as small as 1 cm3/min ~see ttis
journal, No 159, pp 33-37, 2 May 77). Micropatterns cannot be formed very
sharply on a polycrystalline Si if the side-etch is too excessive.
_ COPYRIGHT: Nikkei McGraw-Hill Inc 1980
9113
CSO: 4105
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- SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
= NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN JAPANESE ELECTRONICS INDUS'IRY
Tokyo NIKKEI ELECTRONICS in Japanese 8 Dec 80 pp 267-268
[A brief description of new developments in the Japanese electronic industry]
- [Excerpts] Toshiba to bui_ld a super-LSI plant in Oita; equipment investment -
to total 10 billion yen. -
_ Tokyo Shibaura Electric Co, Ltd plans to build a super-LSI production line in _
. its Oita plant (Oita Prefecture), investing approximately 10 billion yen in
Pquipment. As the first step in that direc:tion, the company in October began
- construction of the No 4 clean room in the Oita plant, investing about 2 bil-
lion yen. This is to be followed by additional investment within the fiscal
year of several billion yen to introduce LSI production equipment capable of _
- minute processing. By the second half of the fiscal 1981, it will have in-
vested a total of 10 billion yen and production of super-LSI will have begun. _
Tokyo Sanyo completes construction of LSI plant; production of super-LSI to
begin in summer 1981.
= '~okyo Sanyo Electric Co, Ltd has completed the construction of a 6 billion yen _
LSI plant within its main office plant in Yuraku-gun, Gumma Prefecture; produc-

- tion Frill bTn next spring. The new plant is a 2-story steel-frame structure
with 6,500 m floorspace. By the summer of 1981, the company expects to start
- producing super-LSI which it is now developing. With the completion of tihe new
plant, the monthly production capacity of IC and LSI will double to 20 and 40 million units, respectively, and thdir combined share in the total sales of the
semiconductor div:sion will increase to about 70 percent.
Fuji Electric increases investment in semiconductor-related equipment; 3 billion
yen for current fiseal year.
Fuji Electric Co,Ltd will invest an additional 6 million yen in semiconductor-
related equipment during the current fiecal year, raising its total investment _
to 3 billion yen. Furthermore, since the dema.nd for its amorphous solar battery,
introduced this August, is good, the compatiy is studying further increases and
adjustments in equipment investmentin order to strengthen the production facili- _
ties for this item. Among other things, the current proposal aims at increased
production of "seren" and enhancing the power-transistor assembly line.
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Oki Electric Co begin production of 64 K RAM next November.
_ Oki Electric Industry Co, Ltd has announced that it plans to produce 200,000
= units ot 64-K bit MOS RAM monthly as of the third quarter of the coning fiscal
year. The unit will carry the trademark "MSM 3764," and will have 2 maximum
- access hours of 150 ns and 200 ns; it will operate on a 5 V single power source
- and will consume 250 mW (maximum) in its operation. Shipments will begin next
= October, and the company plans to produce 200,000 units monthly between Novem-
- ber and March 1982 when full production is realized.
KDD succeeds in practical application of obstacle point detection system for
- underwater cable.
Kokusai Denshin Denwa Co, Ltd (KDD) has successfully developed a technology
for detecting, from land, obstacle points along underwater cables. The range
of error is 20 m. The system utilizes the so-called FS (frequency scanning)
type distortion shuttle testing method. By periodically altering the repeated
f requency of a pulse sent from the cable station, the system can pick up the
variance in reflected distortion waves, which depends on the location of the
- obstacle. This enables the system to detect.the obstacle point.
Kyo Ceramics develops ceramic package with 1/10 the a-ray of existing models.
Kyoto Ceramics Co, Ltd has recently developed a new ceramic package for IC and
LSI which emits less than 1J10 of the a-rays emitted by existing models. The
new product will be marketed in the near future. The company presently supplies
the "surdip" [phonetic] type [packages] but the newly developed model indicates
that it has succeeded in commercializing the layer type as well. The use of
alumina as base does not differ from the existing models, but the company saqs
= that such radioactive impurities as uranium and tritium have been almost
totally removed from the raw materials used.
Mitsubishi reveals GTO with 2,500 V resisting pressure and 1,000 A control
current.
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation has developed a GTO (gate turn-off) thyristor
"FG 1000 A 50" capable of controlling principal current up to a maximum of
100 A and a high resistance level of up to 2,500 V. It will be sold beginning
next April. The price per unit is about 1 million yen. The maximum capacity
of the existing unit is 600 A and 2,500 V. The turn-off time is 15 us; the
turn-off gain, 5 us. The increase in capacity was achieved by improving the
highly technical process of dispersing impurities.
4.3 Fine Ceramics con.ference formed to develop ceramics with wide range of
application.
Nine private companies, including Tokyo Shibaura Electric Co, Ltd and Asahi
_ Glass Co, Ltd, and one [industry] organization have recently formed the "Fine
Ceramics" Conf erence" (chairman--Tomio Tanatsugu, vice president of Toshiba).
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' The objective of the confarence is to develop new nitride and carbide ceramics
c apable of resisting h?gh temperatures and sudden cooling. The Mynistry of
= In ternational Trade and Industry regards this area of development as one of
the important themes in the "next generation of technology." The ministry is
hopeful tha t such products will also be used for automobile engines and gas
turbine generators in the future.
COPYRIGHT: Nikkei-McGraw-Hill Inc 1930
9710
C SO : 4105
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- SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
T.EVEL OF 'TECHNOLOGY' QUESTIONED; ORIGINALITY LACKING
Tokyo BUNGEI SHUNJU in Japanese Vol 58 No 12, 19 Dec 80 pp 332-349
- [Article by Katsuto Uchihashi, critic on economic affairs: "An Illusion That
- Japanese Technology Is 'First Class
[Text] Blanks in the Blueprint of "Ayame"
Japanese engineers who engage in space development often encounter strange-
looking drawings.
In blueprints filled with fine lines and countless symbols, there are some
"white spaces" left empty like brokeri open clouds. These hollow parts, which
look like a picture of a watermelon emptied of its fruit buC left with its
ring, are commonly called "black boxes."
- Most recently, artificial satellites have been composed of around 40,000
= different parts. Among them, sophisticated parts and devices which cannot
be managed by our technology at home are entrusted to spot purchases from U.S.
aerospace manufacturers. These key components (central parts), waich are made
available at the time of purchase under the condition that they are "not to
- be opened up," are what we call "black boxes." Black boxes are present every
_ where in the satellite body proper and in rockets.
According to the National Space Devel4pment Center, a black box is defined
as "a manufactured product purchased under the condition that it will be used
in its sealed state." Its secret (know-how) is, it is said, protected by
mutual trust based upon "official documents exchanged between Japan and the
_ tTnited States" (official documents concerning cooperation between Japan and
the United States in the matter of space development).
As a result, Japanese engineers in charge of satellite and rocket assembly
are unable to know, needless to say, the internal structures, the details of
the manufacturing technology and, in extreme cases, the inspection items of
the devices to be housed in the "white spaces."
All an engineer has to do is to f it the actual black boxes, arriving one
after another, in the satellite proper or on the rockets according to the
_ procedures indicated in the drawings.
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"A termiiial is sticking out (from inside the black box); then we get a wiring
diagram instructing us which wire is to be connected to this terminal. But we
don't know at all what's inside the device." (the center concerned)
In short, the position of the terminal to be connected by the outside wire is
illustrated on the line which indicates the outline oi the "black box." Engi-
neers responsible for the assembly merely connect the wire to the terminal,
exactly following the instructions given--for instance, "Connect wire A to
terminal A, and wire B to terminal B...."--as they compare the American-made
_ device and the American-made drawing.
A black box is a sort of "untouchable" to Japanese engineers.
In February of this year, there was an accident associated with one of these
- black boxes.
This incident has already been made known. Experimental stationary communica-
tions satellite "Ayame No 2," launched from Tanegashima Space Center at 5:35
pm on 22 February, suddenly stopped transmitting radiowaves and disappeared
into the depths of space at 1:46 pm on the 25th, after 3 days of smooth f light
to the target point.
Including "Ayame" (model No 1 failed to separate the third-stage rocket), which
failed on account of rocket trouble just about a year ago, 2 satellites worth
a total of 25 billion yen were frittered away like dust into space within a
year. Four months later, the director of the board of the National Space Devel-
opment Center resigned.
- The manufacture of "Ayame No 2" (ECS) was contracted to the Mitsub3shi Electric
Corporation's Kamakura workshop, just like the previous "Ayame."
_ The company has had experience in the past as prime contractor (main contrac-
tor of the National Space Development Center) of many satellite projects--
- namely, "Kiku" (ETS-II), "Ume" (ISS) and "Sakura" (CS). The engineers of the
Kamakura workshop, who had confidence in the quality control of the key com-
ponents, stared bluntly at the sky and remarked scornfully., "Everything went
_ all right except the one last thing, which blew the whole thing up."
Their frustration is understandable, since it was disclosed that the failure
- of "Ayame No 2" was caused by the "apogee motor," one of the black boxes un-
touchable to the engineers.
- The apogee motor is a"solid fuel rocket" which is incorporated in the satel-
lite body. This motor furnishes the propulsion which enables a satellite to
enter into a subsequent "circular drift orbit" by itsel`:' when it reaches an
apogee. This is one of the most important key components for the satellite,
and is equipped with functions which can be easily converted to a missile.
The apogee motor, critical as described above, suffered abnormal combustion
after being ignited, and as a result it is presumed that "Ayame No 2" de-
- orbited far off course and was lost in space.
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Naturally, a barrage of criticism was directed at the project. The opposition
party questioned the project persistently and even brought the subject to the
floor of the Diet (Committee for Settlement of Accounts, Lower House).
"WhaC was done to test the apogee motor before accepting it? Is our domestic
technology so inferior that we cannot manufacture a little thing like sn apogee
motor?"
Well, to make the story short, we are only asking for "what is not available"
if we demand a 100-percent perfect test or a domestically produced apogee
- motor, as long as the present level of domestic technology is all we rely
upon. It is beyond our present domestic level of technology to conduct a
100-percent inspection, and it is far beyond our ability to manufacture and
- make use of the apogee motor per se. (According to joint research by the
center and the Nissan Motor Co, Ltd, the target date for the achievement of
domestic production is set for the earlier part of the decade starting in
1985.)
This fact itself, that the presence of "black boxes" is inevitable in satel-
lites and rockets to be launched by Japan, can well serve as a measuring stick
to evaluate objectively the ?evel of our national technology in general. In
order to clarify this point, it is felt necessary to clarify the actual con-
ditions of the "Ayame No 2" case.
Have We Overtaken the United States?
"Japanese technological capability has now reached the world's top level in
virtually every field, and it is about to surpass the American level even in
the most advanced technological industries."
In recent days, proud and confident arguments such as "our technological capa-
bility has surpassed the American level" are being circulated with a lot of
fanfare.
I am afraid even people far away from the scene of technology and research and
development are unconsciously starting to entertain this bullish sentiment:
- "There is nothing to be afraid of from the a3vanced European nations and
America."
Trus, not a few European and American giant industries are starting to feel
- the blow and are helplessly shutting down factories because America and the
EEC nations cannot fight off the Japanese imports, and trade disputes have
developed one after another in many industrial sectors such as autnmobiles,
electronics, shipbuilding....
Our technological capability must surely have reached the world's superclass
_ level, since it gives such strong competition to the exports and sizable damage
to the European and American powers. As proof, tour groups interested in ob-
- senring Japanese industries are rushing in from European nations and the
- United States. In this way, the image of "Japan as a technological superpower"
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- is amplified. However, I wonder to what extent this theory of Japanese
"superior.ity over America" is supported by facts.
Now, let us go back and talk about the actual case of the experimental station-
arq cbmmunications satellite "Ayame."
Complex steps and systems are required for a single artificial satellite to
take flight in space.
A project normally proceeds as follows: 1) conceptional design; 2) preliminary
design; 3) selection of manufacturers (selection of prime contractors and sub-
contractors); 4) basic design; 5) specified design; 6) acceptance test;
7) completion of satellite; 8) transportation to launch site; 9) test at launch
- site; 10) installation of apogee motor (in case of stationary satellite),
_ thruster fuel.injection (in case of same), etc. There is an interfacing with
rockets between steps 2 and 4.
Speaking of "Ayame," the conceptional design of step 1 was in the hands of
Fo:.d Co, and the preliminary design of step 2 was shared by Mitsubishi Elec-
tric Corporation and Japan Electric Company, Limited.
Each of the two Japanese companies submitted a"proposal" to the National Space
Development Center which included even a cost proposal and appeared to go like
this: "We will take this method for development, and the reliability control
' will be handled in this manner. The estimated cost will be...." In the end,
the Mitsubishi Electric Corporation won the title of prime contractor. There-
after, the Mitsubishi Electric Corporation received the conceptional design
from Ford and was entrusted with the progress of the steps starting from the
basic design of step 4.
. Nonetheless, the truth of the matter is, it actually went like this: "On the
_ surface, Ford made the conceptional design and the Japanese side was responsi-
- ble for all the steps starting from the preliminary design. However, in the
case of "Ayame," the American side did practically all of the designing. The
Japanese side merely helped and learned the technology while working on the
design." "Design responsibility," which is called design authority, was com-
pletely in the hands of Ford.
Well, what about the "apogee motor" in question? Where the design authority
is in the hands of the American side, the procurement sources for the apogee
motor and the subsystems are entirely committed to the decision of the Ameri-
can side.
_ The Ford Company, using its own judgment, selected "Aero3et Company," known as
the world's first-class manufacturer of apogee motors, and indicated a desire
to supply Aerojet's product to Japan. Our National Space Development Center
agreed to these terms. (The apogee motor manufactured by the Aerojet Company
_ was guaranteed for its high reliability as an item approved by the center.)
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The article was delivered. The actual apogee motor gave the impresaion of a
Halloween ghost at first glance--like an upside-down megaphone csrrying a
- volleyball at the mouthpiece.
".The Japanese side does not understand why the apegee motor is shaped like
that,the reasons for using this particular shape, and how it was deaigned.
The component composition of the solid fuel inside the ahell ts, of courae,
not known. Everything belongs to the secret know-how of the Aerojet Company."
_ The only thing said to have been delivered to Japan with the article was sote
directions--papers instructing where the apogee motor should be installed in
the satellite, how to set it up, and what can be done with the shield to meet
the expected heat to be generated. The difference in the level of technology
between the two countries is clearly evident.
Then, how did we inspect the article before accepting it?
The checking method used by the Japanese side was "nondestructive teating,"
which exposed the article to X-rays while it was rotated to detect cracks and
bubbles on the solid rocket contained inside. (Both defects are likelq to
develop while transporting the article, and cause abnormal combustion.)
Couldn't you test it fvrther than that? asked one concerned with the project.
"Not possible; we did not have the testing technology."
In order to detect a fine crack which could cause the abnormal combustion that
led "Ayame No 2" to fail, more sophisticated technology was required. They
did that on the American side before they shipped the article to Japan. They
- had the technology to do it. What kind of finished product testing method was
- used?
Actually, there are skirts made in the shape of a"petal" on the plane at the
base of the completed apogee motor. A large tool which Iooks like an ear
cleaner is inserted through this spot, it uniformly scrubs th'e surface of the
solid fuel inside, and takes samples of the materials.
A small amount of the powder (solid fuel) scrubbed and collected is burned
to examine its caloric value.
- If there is a crack on the powder, there will be a delicate difference in
caloric value. The presence of cracks can be determined by scrutinizing the
development of the caloric difference at each site.
- We Can Manufacture an Identical Article, but....
Why can't we do this sequence of operations in Japan? A specialist gives an
explanation.
"Scrubbing is not what is difficult. The difficult part is the caloric analy-
sis of the scrubbed and collected samples burned in a vacuum, since propulsion
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in a vacuum is the issue concerning a rocket.... However, thE technological
software and hardware �or making such a tester do not exist in Japan. Fur-
thermore, the slits inside the apogee motor are shaped like a petal for the
purpose of achieving better solid fuel combustion. The truth of the matter
is that we cannot ask and find out about why the slits are shaped like that,
whaC kind of shape can achieve the maximum combustion efficienr_y, or what
kind of inethods can be used to find it, since these questions aYl fall in the
category of the know-how of the Aerojet Company."
If we were asked to make an identical article, it might be possible for us,
_ given our present technical capability, to produce an apogee motor with the
same appearance. Why the apogee motor should look like that, however--the
root know-how--would never be deciphered. That is the context of the expla-
nation. (As will be discussed latex, the essence of our national technology
has been like this at any given period of time.)
And yet, it is said, this troublesome apogee motox is anly a minor case as a F
black box.
At least, an apogee motor delivered with a simple drawing showing an outline
_ of the inside, can be inspected with X-rays. Therefore, some say that an
- apogee motor is not a black box in the strict sense.
In comparison, not a few black boxes with literally unidentified contents are
hidden in the "guidance and control system" inside the rocket.
This system is in the second-stage rocket, which plays the important role of
imparting spin or changing the position of the 4~-tallite. The "Gyro Standard
System" and "VCS (velocity cutoff switch)" incorporated in it fall into that
_ category. They are typical examples of an integral black box, and they can
' never be covered by domestic technology.
Well, as I write this subject to this extent and effect, some may question
"whether it is proper to use the aerospace industry for a comparison of tech- nology. It is understandable that Japan cannot catch up, since the aerospace
industry requires highly sophisticated military technology, the forerunner of ~
the most advanced technology along with atomic power and nuclear fusion." -
Certainly, such an opinion is acceptable and makes sense in the light of a
"Japan stripped of its military power." Nevertheless, military technological
items are at the same time not necessarily adorned completely from head to toe
with military technology. We cannot overlook the fact that extensive fringe
areas are formed by a cluster of general technology which may involve machinery
and equipment for the civilian sector.
In fact, sateliites and rockets contain some components which are far from the
reach of Japan in the field of technology that belongs to general technology
and super sophisticated processing technology. Let�me give you a few examples.
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Antennas (K-band antenna, C-band antenna) are attached to the head of a
satelZite. Antennas always keep turning to face the earth. With turning
antennas, a bearing Will be required on the spot where the antenna contacts
_ the satellite body.
_ The Japanese bearing industry is doing such a good businecs that it is caus-
ing trade disputes in the EEC market, and it is natural thaC we take it for
granted that domestical?.y made bearings are used for the joints. Well, we
_ are fooling ourselves.
It is beyond the capability of our own technology to manufacture bearings
which can permanently work without oil at a constant and coefficient friction.
~ We have no alternative but to rely on an American industry named Ball Aerospace
Company (old name, Ball Brothers) for the oilless bearing employed on that spot
of the satellite.
_ Also, the flat deck (board in the central section) of the satellite is con-
_ structed in a honeycomb structure, and a very thin aluminum alloy sheet is
used for the top and the bottom. These types of goods also cannot be accommo-
dated by domestically manufactured products. Although it is not that we do
not have the metallurgical technology in Japan to roll at a low temperature,
we somehow cannot manufacture an aluminum alloy sheet that can meet the re-
quired performance, no matter how hard we try.
Here is another example. The pipe of the thruster tank used for the "second
propulsion system" of a rocket is required to sustain a reliability of 99.99
percentfor unmanned rockets and 99.9999 percent for manned rockets.
Methods used to perform the reliability test on the manufactured pipe, from
the application of pressure to the testing method, are all categorized as
know-how and are forever kept undisclosed from the Japanese technical engineers.
Up to now, in space development where sophisticated advanced technology is
_ concentrated, black boxes exist everywhere; I wonder what this implies.
- Needless to say, the aerospace industry can establish itself only after it
works closely with the computer electronics industry. This is because elec-
tric sachinery and equipment supported by highly advanced computer technology.
and high electric communications technology are required for the guidance and
control of satellites and rockets.
Conyersely speaking, at the present ti_me it seems that an independent aerospace
_ industry cunnot be set up unless it has access to the most advanced large-scale
computer communications technology and balanced massive peripheral technologies
that form the skirts of the system.
The fact that "Ayame" (No 1 and No 2) contained' numerous "black bloxes" in the
heart of the satellites and the rockets does indicate, I believe, the reality
that the standards of Japan still remain on a level that is dependent upon and
- far behind American technology in the area of these advanced and peripheral
technologies.
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War Over Chips
Clearly examining the lineage of our technology, we will soon realize that
there is no significant difference in the substance of our pusture in becoming
involved with technology and the Japanese model technology produced as a result
between the prewar period and the postwar period, ar even today when we claim
that we are "a technological superpower."
Before the war, our technological capability aclvanced greatly in the period
from 1935 to 1940, and echoed the surge of one peak. When you look at the con-
tent, however, three characteristics can be found that are clearly associated
with the brittleness of the technology itself.
First, the technological progress was extremely unbalanced. The areas which
progressed really made great advances, whereas the areas which were left behind
remained pathetically way back. Even taking the single area of aircraft tech-
nology as an example, Japan was said to have reached the international level in
hydrodynamics and structural dynamics but was highly unreliable in electronic
machinery and equipment including radio detectors and hydraulic systems.
Secondly, according to the traditional pattern established, technological devel-
opment did not have many puxposes but always had a single purpose to be pursued
with determination. Research and development with latent value, without a
definite purpose in a field which is likely to offer something unknown, were
never given a chance. In those days, everything was executed in the name of
a "military purpose."
Thirdly, in association with this, our technology aimed only at practical
applications, and basic research which leads to the creation of technology it-
self used to be neglected. As :i result, research and development competitive
in improved technology and applied technology prevailed throughout Japan.
- I feel helplessly surprised to'find that everything we do today fits into
what we did in the past, if only the concept of prewar "military adherence" is
replaced by "coffinodity adherence" (recently, commodity adherence has been the
sweeping trend, even in universities and public research institutes).
. Here, af ter all, the prestigious "semiconductor" can be named as a typical
= example of (import) technology that had always been assimilated in a form
adhering to the demand for "commodities." Nowadays, Japanese businessmen at
every step of the ladder have been familiar with the catch phrase ','Japan-U.S.
Semiconductor War."
The implanted image sweetly whispers that Japanese technology will monopolize
- the market in the field of semiconductors--a market in which we fought neck
- and neck with the United States, threatened them, and now have emerged as the
winner. This may be a quite unexpected tale for the people whose head is
swollen with such an image, but it is a fact that our prewar pattern of imbalance,
lack of basic research, and commodity ad'nerence is fully inherited by zhe tech-
nical development of the "semiconductor."
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~
A technological developer who pioneered the era of electronic desk calcula-
tors in Japan and who sits at the very top of semiconductor technology con-
fides: "It is only part of the story to say that Japan looks like it is -
competing evenly with the United States in the world of semiconductor tech- -
nology. Japanese power is exercised in only a very small part of actual
_ semiconductor application, adhering to the demand for a certain specific
commodity." (Director Shige Asada, Sharp Corporation)
Of course, there is a reason why Japan's achievements "appear larger" than
what they really are, in spite of its small contribution to "technology."
"It so happens that the applicational and merchandising f ield of the semi- -
_ conductor--in other words, the�market facade--is presently concentrating on -
- certain fields in which Japan is good. Precisely because comnodities in
fields of technology in which Japan excels are in great demand at the present
time, Japan looks good and competent."
Such a phenomenon--dominance in a market, in contrast to a marginal contribu-
tion to technology--often occurs between technology and the raarket.
If standardized and mass-produced semiconductors are manufactured at full speed
and flood the market, as is the specialty of Japan, this may somehow give the
- impression, to the eyes of the people who see things only in terms of quantity,
that "Japan is strong" and "Japan has surpassed the United States."
From the course of the overall progress of semiconductor technology, the cur-
rent market happens to have reached a stage wherein mass-produced, standardized
goods are in the mainstream. Such is the interpretation by the engineers who
live in the world of semiconductors.
"Returning to the technology map, Japanese semiconductor technology is merely
an island in the overall world map. Comparing technical capability with pres-
ence of mind encompassing the outlook of the waiting markets (markets waiting -
to be tapped), the overwhelming power is in the hands of the United States, I
am sure." (Asada)
Let me explain in more detail.
It is often said that the semiconductor war is fought over chips. The super-
LSI war is fought for many more transistors for the memory capacity of the
chips.
This is exactly true. Yet the semiconductor war is not entirely of a war
over chips. It is merely a first world war, figuratively speaking, judging
by its disposition. The second world war will start in parallel with it.
For example, the war over chips will be instantly obsolete if at this moment
a powerful "ma.terial revolution" of the semiconductor itself breaks out,
kindled by the question of whether or not there is a more suitable raw material
as a semiconductor to replace the silicone presently in use.
And engineers now know well that this possibility ip no longer a hypothesis on
- paper.
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Multipolar Power Relation
For example, a high-speed element which may be created by utilizing "gallium
= and'arsenic compound" or "amorphous" may be a potential candidate as a new
material. With these questions posed, the United States is actively setting
forth into basic research on the respective materials, beginning with an
inquiry deep into the properties of matter itself.
- In contra,.ct to this, sp ecialists conclude that, unfortunately, hardly any
private research inst~tutes in Japan inquire into a material--say, amorphous--
= by first digging into the "properties" of amorphaus itself.
However, needless to say, it is quite unknown whether or not gallium-azsenic
or amorphous can be immediately connected to the semiconductor material revo-
lution. American industries have started research, motivated only by the
potential. It is virtually impossible to find in Japan an enterprise that is
willing to invest manpower and money for basic research of this nature. Stand
by and wait for the U.S. results. Once a favorable result is indicated, never
lose a second but leap up to follow suit. This scenario was the basis of the
- Japanese style in the past, and it is still the same today.
On the other hand, how about the equipment which produces the semiconductors
themselves? After vis iting numerous production sites, I realized first the
fact that practically all equipment on hand in the semiconductor praduction
plants is American-made.
Recently, a great renovation is gathering momentum in the field of super-LSI
manufacturing technology. The traditional exposure technology by "light" is
starting to take a step forward in the direction whereby ultra-fine patterns
= are produced by "electron beams."
However, the "electron beam exposure system" that does this job is manufac--.
tured almost exclusive ly by the American Itek Company. The speed with which
- manufacturer can impor t the Itek system ahead of others is said to aff.ect the
competitive power of s emiconductor manufacturers. (A similar system was
voluntarily developed at the Joint Research Institute of the Super LSI Research
Union, which was recently dissolved. However, those that are practical are
virtually all American-made.)
- A long time ago, in connection with the importing of polypropylene technology
in the petrochemical f ield, a"pilgrimage to Monte" (Japanese industries
rushed to the gate of the Italian Monte Catini Company) commotion once broke
out.
Now, "waiting for Itek" is whispered in the semiconductor business world,
modeling after that. This comes from the long waiting list which blocks the
immediate acquisition of the actual product, even when the electron beam
exposure systems are ordered from the Itek Company. A manufacturer who suc-
ceeded in obtaining the system one step ahead of the others is, to tell the
_ truth, really relieved: "We acted fast to pave the way. Thanks to our dis-
cretion, we are saved."
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This electron beam exposure system is only one example. Many engineers
acknowledge tl-,at "Silicon Valley" is still at the top, not only in semicon-
- ducturs t,ut also in the most advanced devices which manufacture semiconduc-
_ tors per se--for instance, the device which facilitates the growth of a very
thin single crystal film on the surface of a silicon wafer (material for
semiconductor), the device which controls by microcomputer everything in the
process by which photosensitive resin is painted on the wafer and the treated
wafer is developed, and the device which removes hydrogen bubbles f rom the
wafer.
As clarified above, if your eyes are glued only to the tide of the war envelop-
ing the mass production of semiconductors and the maximization of inemory
capacity on a chip, the true power relation in the "Japan-U.S. Semiconductor
War" can be hardly perceived.
_ I think we can enter into a true discussion of whether or not we have surpassed
our opponent not in that manner but only after we begin to look at the multi-
polar power relations, such as the progress of semiconductor utilization tech-
nology, the semiconductor material revolution, and semiconductor manufacturing
- system technology.
- Unfortunately, these alone may not yet really be satisfactory.
Many other most advanced technologies are required as peripheral technologies
which influence the future of semiconductors. One of them is the super-
sophisticated processing technology," called "nano technology." A"nano" is
a unit of extremely small size--one one-thousandth of a micron. (One micron
is one one-thousandth of a mil.) This technology has become necessary in the
fields of space satellites, introduced at the beginning of this article,
nuclear fusion, nuclear power generation, an3 most recently in the f ield of
grooving videodisk originals by using ion beams.
Now, I say, this same "super-sophisticated processing technology," where even
- the size of one nano makes the diff erence, has been mobilized in the super-LSI
' manufacturing sites. The emergence of the super-sophisticated processing
technology will further demand the developmenC of peripheral technol.ogy to
make instruments and tools which can measure the size of one nano exactly on
the dot. The conventional material processing technologies will rapidly be
outdated, and a new material treatment technology which controls the movement
of atoms themselves must instead come upon the surface.
The progress of the peripheral technologies will be linked inversely to the
- change in the world of the super-LSI itself.
_ As described above, in the semiconductor war during the super-LSI era, it is
absolutely not possible to win totally by having only one area of technical
capability in which one excels proudly and superbly.
The outcome of the semiconductor war will be determined by the height of
balanced comprehensive technology standards, including peripheral technolo-
gies. Even on these points, our national technology level is far from that
of the United States.
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"The most advanced technology of America hardly comes to the surface at any
particular given point of time. The manufactured goods which lead semicon-
ductors all disappear directly into the net of the demand by the military who
- ordered them. It is most likely correct to think that all tie s�miconductors
= that are presented to the market and exposed to our eyes are those brought
= down to the level of goods for the public. Just like solving a r:iddle in a
mystery story, readers cannot rgqasure the size of their latent powers sub-
- merged below the surface until the story ends." The foregoing is the belief
_ commonly shared in the foremost line of Japanese semiconductot technolo gy.
How then can we declare that "Japan has surpassed America" when our national
- semiconductor technology is still dragging "comm odity adherence," "imba lance,"
and "absence of basic research" in its mentality?
Of course, it is expected that objections may be raised to this strict point
_ of view: "I hear that Silicon Valley is actually hard-hit by the force of the
high-quality .Tapanese goods produced by high technological capability."
_ It is true that at one time, it was persistently reported that the venture
businesses of Silicon Valley suffered from the double blows of offensive ex-
- ports by the Japanese semiconductor manufacturers and European capital's
offensive in an attempt to buy the businesses.
As soon as the rumor of businesses "for sale by owner" was reported, this
news immediately gave the impression that "Japan is superior" J_n the Japan-
U.S. semiconductor war. It is the impression of "Japan driving America into
a corner."
However, tr.:� very subject of the rumor, Silicon Valley, is neither desp erate
not depressed. This is because there are undisclosed circumstances over there
= that are essentially different from the simple-minded "win or lose" mentality
of the Japanese people.
Among the venture business of Silicon Valley, there is the "Zilog Company,"
which became the topic of talk after it came under the wing of the giant
Exxon.
_ Intel Company was created by Fairchild, which invented roots technology for
semiconductors. It is well known that this Intel produced Zilog through a
- division.
_ When President Federico Fergin of this company visited Japan, he told an
. engineer of a business tieup partner firm: "We asked Exxon to back us up,
~ since an enormous amount of capital is required to develop the tools (for
= the microcomputer utili.zatiori technology). Now we are ready to engage in
new development."
It is definitely the genuine Japanese sensitivity to interpret the sales and
= purchases of businesses and the import of capital as selling oneself to
_ "giant capital" or surrendering to the European army. We must learn that
actual businesses move in a world different from such a sensitivity.
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With the money given by the parent company or the money procured from a third
party, a venture business is started, and after it is expanded, its stock is
opened to the public. That is the pattern of the birth and growth of venture
- businesses.
In this respect, the candid state of our semiconductor industry is summarized:
"Using technology and production equipment purchased from America, the
Japanese people--an excessively workaholic and diligent species rax`ely seen
_ in the world--are totally devoted to manufacturing standardized and mass-
groduced goods at full speed and are frantically selling the products back
to the originator." In other words, it seems like we are drawing a picture
of the world's best "wage-earning processing industry."
- For those who complain of the harshness of this expression, there is nothing
I can do but ask them ta wait and see the consequences in the future-- after
_ 1990. However, I would like to request that they listen attentively to rhe
following prediction by a first-line engineer about the future outlook of the
- "Japan-U.S. Semiconductor War."
"The new super-LSI techn.ology about to be born now will not be sold by itself
. to Japan. They are resolved to keep the utilization technology in their own
hands, and the devices will be sold as a set with the utili2ation technology.
- This is the strategy about to be adopted by America for the semiconductor
war. In the future, the function of semiconductors will be sophisticated and
diversified, and their performance will improve rapidly. Tremendous amounts
of human energy and capital, probably as much as to involve hundreds of
- engineers in years rf research, are required to materialize software which can
make the best use of the progress in the function of semiconductors. How many
Japanese enterprises can stand that kind of preliminary investment? Eventually,
development of software will be monopolized, and on the other hand, the actual
semiconductor (hardware) production sites will be dispersed throughout the world.
Japanese semiconductor makers have no choice but to move toward earning by means
' of mass production, once more using devices equipped with software and 'manage-
ware' purchased from America."
According to the production structure based upon macro-analysis of the
- world's supply and demand, even in semiconductors which lead the technology- ~
- intensive industries, Japan seems to proceed deeper and deeper in the direction
of appearing like a"nation of wage-earning processing industry."
_ In a dimension totally different from the mentality of talking about whether
we "won" or "lost," those Japanese engineers and researchers who actually deal
with the technology feel a serious, escalating "sense of crisis."
Only Tao Noteworthy Technologies Exist
A sense of crisis is felt intensively among those who know technology. The
closer the engineers and researchers are to the actual scene, or the more -
_ specialized the specialists are, the fewer are those who think "Japan has
_ surpassed America." -
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"Japan Techno-Economics Society" (Corporation President: Toshio Doko) took
a poll by distributing questionnaires to 450 top management officers in charge
_ of technology and development in private enterprises in July of this year
(questionnaires reCurned: 204).
What about the results?
They answared as follows to the question: What about Japanese �"standards of
notewortliy and original research,1� compared to the advanced European nations
and America?
(Japanese) standards outstanding 0.5 percent
Slightly higher 8.4 percent
- On the same level 18.2 percent
Slightly behind 65 percent
Considerably behind 7.5 percent
This translates out that more than 70 percent of the total answered that Japan
was "behind Europe and America."
What do they s3y about the reasons for this tardiness?
Some 57 percent of the total answered: "Because private enterprises have not
poured their energy into basic research, which becomes the core of the note-
worthy and original research," while 47 percent answered: "The government's
science and technology policy has not supported this kind of research" (more
than one answer).
This is what the men in top management positions of technology and development
willingly admitted.
- Many respondents gave the following two reasons as factors which have inhibited
basic research: private enterprise's attitude toward research and development
is to put a priority on short-term profit (78 percent); the uniform school edu-
cation system ignores indivfduality (67 percent).
Only one respondent contended that the present "research system" has no problems.
_ What do these poll results indicate?. Throughout the era of high economic
growth, a decade starting in 1965, the science administration and general enter-
prises in Japan adamantly disregarded "basic research." Zealmsly pursued the
"instant golden egg" which quickly turns into commodities from hand to mouth
and brings profit to the enterprises.
During this time, "appiicational research" and "developmental research" boomed
- instead of "basic research."
The traces of this are explicitly impressed on the structure of research
expense outlays.
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The ratio of "basic research expenses" (nationwide) to research expenses regis-
= tered 30.3 percent in 1965, but it reduced sharply to 13.5 percent in 1977,
- and the same figure was reduced to a marginal 4.7 percent in private enter-
prises. Compared to this, "development and research expenses" allocated to
- research for improvement of technology imported from America and Europe and
for existing technology was at a high level of 75.7 percent in the same year.
- Japan left the highly risky, roundabout "basic research" to Europe and America,
while [Japan] herself searched viciously like a hawk for the results of the
research. If she found technology with good potential use in the West, she
' immediately flew high, flapping her wings, brought the material back in her
beak, and rolled it out in front of the engineers of her companies working for
development. Without any loss of time, "applicational research" and "develop-
- mental research" commenced.
� By avoiding the largely unpredictable "basic research" and devoting herself to
efficient development, the competitive gower in the cost of the finished com-
modities became strong, as a whole. This is merely a situation where the model
- of so-called "handstand research" was put into practice by Japan. If the re-
sults of this research had been pleasing in all respects, the sense of crisis
indicated in the poll data would not have appeared. The truth of the matter,
� however, is quite to the contrary.
Eirstof all, "developmental research" and "applicational research," which have
been Japan's specialties, are starting to reach an impasse. Applicational
research cannot be initiated without the introduction of a basic patent which
_ becomes the seed of the research. European and American manufacturers are
singing louder in a chorus not to sell patents to Japan.
_ Secondly, as a consequence of ignoring "basic research," "bargaining power" is
- lost from the technology of our country (some say we did not have it from the
� beginning...). When cross-license contracts are demanded by Europe and America,
we have no technology to exchange.
' In the midst of a corporative posture which gives wholehearted devotion to
- "developmental research," earnest researchers who emphasize "basic research"
are mistreated, and an air of desolation is thickening.
These oppressive substantiations of the facts should be reflected in the sense
of crisis which has finally begun to be felt by the top management of technology.
_ An institution entrusted with the task of glancing extensively over the world
of our national technology and discovering and developing excellent seeds of
_ national technology (linking them to development and merchandizing) zs the "New
Science and Technology Research Development Corporation of Japan" (started in
- 1961 as a special corporation under the jurisdiction of the Science and Tech-
nolcgy Agency).
Promising research results are searched out from university laboratories,
national research institutions, and private enterprises; financial aids are
awarded and meanwhile wait for the chance for coumercialization. In this
manner, they try to nurture the seeds of originat tpchnology.
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- What has the corporation achieved? Corporation Planning Office Chief Officer
Genya Chiba summarized:
"In the past 20 years, we searched throughout Japan, dug out seeds of tech-
= nology, and mediated for commercialization. Well then, what was the nature
of the technology we handled? Unfortunately, 95 percent was technology for
improvement. Original technology constituted 5 percent. Even that's not
- accurate enough. If national technology is more rigidly classified, only 2
cases out of 200 can be called genuinely original to Japan--namely, research
and development of ultrafine grain and continuous manufacture technology for
a luminescent diode. Even if the criteria for classification are slightly
relaxed, 10 cases at most can be called original Japanese technologies."
Many of the technologies handled by the corporation were submitted to it with
the claim that they were unique Japanese original technology. When Mr Chiba
investigated, however, 95 percent of them were found to be already on the
family tree of European and American technologies.
"Here are the characteristics that symbolize the total picture of our national
technology," analyzed Chiba.
"The first kind is those which perform slightly better than the original seed
as a result of an improvement given to the technology. Secondly, those which
have the nature of reducing the production process if utilized and eventuallp
can reduce the cost. The originality is sensed not in the technology itself,
but rather in the method of 'supplementary tesCing' wherein literature pre-
_ sented elsewhere is collected, follow-up experiments are conducted using
slightly different methods,and the results are fed into profitable undertakings."
Incidentally, the New. Science and',Technology Research was brougkct' into
the world with the British "National Research Development" serving as the
- original model.
Although the terms "English disease" and "English decline" are commonly heard,
- England is a country which develops excellent original technology in the world,
and her tradition which created penicillin and jet engines is said not to have
entirely withered.
The recently discussed CT scanner and cephalosporin, etc, were all brought into
this world from the technological roots of this country. Chiba consistently
advocates: "We must start a new movement toward basic research and creative
technology and development."
Self-Support Ratio and Domestic Production Ratio
By the way, it is now a certain matter of fact that the production of automo-
biles and steel (numerical quantity) has finally reached the world's No 1 rank
- ahead of the United States this year. It is argued that our national technical
competence, combined with the strong export competitive power, made these
achievements possible.
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It now happens that a securities company that persistently recommends defense
stocks and its research department are trying to create a"technology era"
using the same scenario. Countless copies of materials are being distributed
throughout Japan.
This of course is not the first time that the "question of technology" has
_ been called front and center.
Around the eve of the Second World War, articles stressing technical capabil-
ity and productive capacity appeared incessantly in newspapers and magazines.
A paper titled, "Should We Be Afraid of American Economic Sanctions?" seemingly
is a typical example of such an article. It stated, "Japan has become a major
pr.oducing nation. The booming of heavy industries demonstrates this fact....
This means that Japan no longer is dependent on foreign nations for the major
part of steel, fertilizers, weapons and ammunition, and machinery." (HANASHI,
January 1940, published by Bungei Shunusha). By applying various statistical
fgures, it tried to prove that "we have nothing to fear from the United States."
At that time, many advocates--including economists respected for their common-
sense--based their positions on two points: first, the remarkable advancement
of "technical capability," and second, the potential self-sufficiency in
resources as a result of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
As an example of the remarkable technical advance given as the first point,
more than a few people argued: "A synthetic petroleum industry is about to
become possible."
The previously mentioned article also made people feel very confident, encour-
= aging them [by saying] that if the United States acted against exporting oil
to Japan, we could meet our needs by [importing] Mexican crude oil, since the
Japanese oil-refining capacity had advanced remarkably in recent years, and
further, by writing, "We have succeeded in developing artificial petroleum
' technology which extracts oil from conglomerate and coal which iS inexhaust-
- ible in Manchuria."
"Even if the United States stops our oil supply, we will never be critically
damaged," vouched the article, because of the superior technical capability
and strong productive capacity in our hands. Public opinion, which was encour-
aged by the escalating "question of technology," might have backed the decision
for war.
There we can witness an established pattern, which starts with self-admiration
and proceeds to overconfidence and further to self-fantasy.
Of course, these series of "questions of technology" did noC necessarily dis-
cuss the superiority of technology by using fab.ricated materials.
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"Japanese Economl in War and Reconstruction" (written by J. B. Cohen, trans-
lated by Hyoe Ohuchi), which is known to have been compiled by many Americans
using Japanese materials, presents the following three points as reasons and _
- background situations which made Japan positive. -
They are: first, domestic productive capacity was drastically expanded in
preparation for war. Self-sufficiency in the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity
Spher e was in progres s(the Japanese people themselves believed that self-
suff i ciency was substantially being completed). Additionally, the power of
"propaganda" was quite effective.
' To sum up, a remarkab le development of technical capability and productive
capac ity was part of the fact. But the advocates had failed to perceive a ,
large gap which might have existed between the numerical basis (official)
that indicates progress and the actual conditions. Thus, overconfidence
worsened to self-fantasy.
For example, the book presents some data.
It po ints out that the self-supply ratio of tin was actually 28.8 percent, in
cont rast to the repor ted 1361.6 percent. Similarly pig iron was actually
16.7 percent instead of the reported 100.6 percent. Oil, which was discussed
- in terms of its potential self-sufficiency, managed to maintain a 1eve1 of _
20.2 percent. -
Besides the gap between the numerical figures indicated with pretended objec-
_ tivi ty and the actual conditions, it was later discovered that a more impor-
tant point was overlooked by the comments of that time comparing Japanese and
U.S. technologies. -
They had torgotten to include the dormant energy of Amer..ican economic power
in their discussion.
, Let me give you as example the comparison of Japan-U.S. battleships (total
displacement) :
Japan-U.S.
Japan America ratio
Star t of the war 894,000 tons 1,440,000 tons 69.5 percent -
2d year 972,000 tons 2,807,000 tons 35.3 percent _
- End of the war 274,000 tons 4,274,000 tons 6.4 percent _
"Iwanami LectLres" (Japanese History)
Whi le Japanese baitl eships remained virtually at the same level in the 2d year, .
by the end of 1943 America had taken a giant leap and doubled the figure. ThQ _
_ Amer ican economic po tential which can be brought forward once an emergency
should arise is plainly shown.
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Of course,e,we do not have to mention that the economic capacity and production
structure of Japan and the United States have changed fundamentally and are
different now compared to those days. I do not intend at all to conclude Chat
we are in the same situation as we were before and during the war.
Yet it is possible to see similar errors in today's "question of technology."
~ One of these errors concerns the evaluation of the "latent power" of American
technology, and the other is the figures of Che "domestic production ratio" o�
our country often referred to in advanced technology industries.
Qne engineer said: "American researchers and engineers are engaged in free re-
_ search in its true sense. Each of them has plenty of energy, chooses his own
theme as he pleases, and f inds a method for creative research. In comparison,
we in Japan do the same research but are only free to move around in a state
where the players on the field are already in position. Almost in a condition
of total solidarity, we rush toward the given goals while guessing the company
policy and th.e boss' intention. On the surface, the two powers may closely
resemble each other. But once an emergency arises, and the field players take
- their position in the American research arena, we do not mean too much. The
level of inner energy is different. It is like the Brownian movement in
matter moving into all directions. Once it is directed to one set direction,
the volume of the charge makes the difference."
On the other hand, the "domestic production ratio" is the figure which resem-
- bles, in its characteristics, the "self-support ratio" often used on the eve
of an all-out war.
Innocently believing the figures disclosed, we use them, for instance, in the
- following context: "Look at these figures; our national technology standard
_ has reachEd this level even in the fields of space development, nuclear indus-
. try, and advanced technology." If we try to prove our advanced state of tech-
nology standards using the publicized "domestic production ratio," we may fall
into the same trap as we did with the "self-support ratio" of the old days.
It is not strar.ge for everyone to wonder how we can ever make the same mis-
takes today, when all the information is open to the public, contrary to the
_ prewar days, when information was not disclosed.
Nonetheless, the "Phantom of the Domestic Production Ratio" is actually walk-
ing about in the daylight.
Partially Imported "Domestically Produced Goods"
Here is another example.
For instance, speaking of our country's nuclear power generation, which
finally achieved the world's second highest level of power generation capacity
last year, next only to America, the Science and Technology Agency announced
publicly: "The ratio of domestic production in nuclear power plants has
reached the 99-percent mark." Even electric power companies proudly exclaim:
"In Fukushima No 2 Nuclear Power Plant, No 1 unit is 97-percent domestically
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produced, No 2 is 99-percent domestically produced, and No 3 and No 4 will be
100-percent domestically produced." (Tokyo Electric Company)
Can we really believe this?
According to the PR of the eleCtric companies themselves, they say the higher
the ratio of domestic production, "the safer the nuclear plant. A high domes-
tic production ratio leads to safe operation of nuclear reactors, and if an
emergency happens we can cope with it in Japan." With such an address, the
- figures for domestic production ratio they have referred to must be very
accurate and be supported by strict calculations to be awarded the status of
the most important index. However, when I went around this time to get infor-
mation on the basis for calculating the "domestic production ratio," I was
endlessly sent from one place to another, and in the end I could not even hope
to get confirmation of Che man who was in charge of the calculation of the
- "domestic production ratio."
= Among the key components of nuclear machinery and equipment, the "primary
coolant pump motor" is more or less the champion of hardware. This determines
- the size of the output.
Also, in the Three Mile Island accident case, this coolant pump motor trig-
gered the failure.
Well, then, is this vital "primary coolant pump motor" really domestically
produced? According to the government announcement, it is classified as a
"domestically produced item." However, if we carefully read the "Atomic
- Power Yearbook" and the like, we will notice "partially imported" in small
parentheses in a note at the very end.
What does partially imported mean? It is ambiguous from the announced data
alone.
Actually, only the motor is domestically produced. Part of the pump and the
shield (a vital part which protects the coolant stored inside from seeping out
during the operation of the nuclear reactor), which require more important
and sophisticated technolugy as components, are dependent on imports. This
is the true color of the item class3.fied as "partially imported."
There are too many components classified as "domestically produced" with a
footnote "partially imported."
The champions of the software--the brain for the nuclear power plant opera-
tion--such as the "neutron measurement control system" and the "recirculation
flow rate control valve" are all "partially imported." The truth of the
matter is that in all cases parts are imported, assembled in Japan, and classi-
fied as "produced domestically."
Is this what we call our 99-percent "domestic production ratio?"
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The same is true for space development. The "domestic production ratio" in
this field is not the number of parts but is indicated, they say, by the per-
centage of the absolute sum (in money), whether or not the means of payment
was in "yen" or in "dollars." "This figure is the data for the budget
_ approved by the Ministry of Finance, and is absolutely processed on a budget
base," explains the-New Science and Technology Research.
Once you find out that the content of "domestic production" is the grand total
_ of 1) those products that are made completely by domestic technology, 2) those
products that are made at home by importing foreign technology, and 3) those
products that are bought from abroad but assembled in Japan, you will never
ever think of using these figures as proof of "Japanese supremacy over
' America." �
Now, speaking of the so-called postwar flower of "domestically produced air-
craft," the YS-11, in reality its engine was made by Rolls-Royce, its propeller
was made by Hamilton Standard, its tires were made by Goodyear, its instruments
were made by Collins Bendix, and everything from its radio machinery and equip-
ment to its glass and duralumin were all imports (the glass was produced domes-
_ tically later on). Only the seats and the electric wire were produced in
Japan.
Even this passed amiably as "domestic production," since it was assembled in
Japan. If this same treatment is not accorded in nuclear plants and space
satellites, it is certainly unfair, isn't it?
= There are many other blunders of "phantom figures."
_ "Taking a look at the recent figures of the technology export-import balance,
the increase in exports is larger. Japan finally has entered an era where she
- can sell technology." This is the kind of article we often encounter. Yes,
if we only pay attention to the figures, such a trend is certainly not unrecog-
nizable.
_ However, even taking as an example the "patent-fee income" in the technology
export column, do you know that "personnel expenses" are included in items
accounted for?
Those increases are tY?e ircn and steel plant exports to the developing coun-
tries. Accompanying the exported goods, Japanese engineers and technicians
are sent to the local destinations. Engineering fees (part to be paid by the
_ buyer) are calculated by including their personnel expenses and are accounted
for as know-how income.
- Today, when we are developing large-scale iron and steel plant exports here
and here, it is a natural conclusion that the absolute sum of technology ex-
port income is growing. This is not, however, the same as selling excellent
- "technology" like hotcakes.
_ Also, for example, it is said that japanese automobiles have swept over the
- American market. But the truth is that the sale of cars is concentrated on
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the popular models with a small engine displacement of 1600cc and below owing
to their good fuel consumption efficiency. It is not that Japanese cars over
- 2000cc are pushing American cars aside. The sale trends compiled by the auto
manufacturers themselves tell the story very clearly. We must keep our eyes
wide open to catch the off shoot of the "self-support ratio."
The Permanent Wage-Earning Processing Country: Japan
_ Now, the strength that Japanese products show in iron and steel, automobiles,
electronics... is derived from ttie superiority of ".'quality control" and
"production technology."
The "quality control" superiority is determined largely by the differences in
the quality of labor and the quality of skills in the production sites before
we talk about the quality of "technology."
In the countries wheresociety is required by the Employment and Opportunity Act
and the like to accept the participation of a fixed number of minorities in
production sites, the observance of these regulations is known to lower the
quality in quality control, and so naturally conditions will become disadvan-
tageous.
Nevertheless, should not the attitude of European and American enterprises in
trying to engage minorities in industrial society, in spite of the apparent
disadvantage in doing so, be regarded as an indication of a compassionate human
society in an advanced stage of development?
On the other hand, it is possible to establish a way of thinking that creative
_ technology is not the only technology; technology for improvement and produc-
tion technology also consCitute technology.
However, as long as we intentionally hold onto those points of view, we can
- never escape from the "bog of technology," in which we keep competing with
the industries that exist in foreign markets aad the industries that may come
into the foreign markets, beating them in quality, earning by quantity, and
playing the cards through efficiency. Our eventual destination is "Japan as
a permanent wage-earning processing country."
Yet, to our embarrass.ment, beginning today to conduct basic research in
pursuit of creative technology" is not something we can commit ourselves to
at this moment. The points made in the previously mentioned poll--that the
reform of education, production structure, and research systems is required
before anything else can be done--convey the circumstances as to why we cannot
bring ourselves to do so.
It seems that we can awaken ourselves from "self-fantasy" if we sit down and
evaluate more honestly the efforts to develop highly original technologies or
the challenges to creative technologies which will give us more bargaining
power, instead of clauning:"We have surpassed America." What do you think?
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