JPRS ID: 9500 JAPAN REPORT ENERGY: STATUS AND DEVELOPMENTS

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• Content Type: REPORTS

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_ JPRS L/9500
22 January 1981
Ja a~ Re ort
p p
- cFOUO 5~a, ~
Energy: Status and Developments
.
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_ JPRS L/9500
22 January 1981
. JAPAN REPnRT
' (FOUO 5/81)
a
~
. EI~IERGY: STA~US AND D.EYELOPMENTS
CONTENTS
~ Japan's Energy Ghoices for Future Discussed
(NIRA REPORT: MIRAI ENO SENTAKU, ENERUGI 0 KANGAERU Sep 79;
_ SHOWA GOJUROKU NEI~IDO TSUSHO SANGYO SEISAKU NO JUTEN Aug 80) 1
Unique Economic, Social Issues
National Strategy
- Demand Prediccions
' Proposed 1981 Budget Allocations
Energy Conservation Efforts, New Alternate Energy Sources
(various sources, various dates) 68
Major IndusCries' Programs
Fuji Electric
Conservation Bill Revised
Biomass Energy
Local Energy System
Solar Energy
Solar House
Geothermal Energy
Technology Assessments
Government Offers Incentives for Energy Conservation
(DENPA SHIMBUN, 15 Sep 80; NIKKAN KYOGYO SHIl~BUN, 20 Sep 80)..... 154
Loans for Solar Homes
Industrial Investment Promotion Incentive
No Major Revision of Energy Supply Targets in Fiscal 1990
(KYOD0,21 Oct 80) 158
- Subsidy Frogram Spurs Makers of Energy Saving Coolers
(BUSINESS JAPAN, Sep 80) 159
- a - [II~ - ASIA - 111 FOUOJ
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y Solar Energy Said Reachirig Practical Application Stage
(BUSINESS JAPAN, Sep 80) 163
tJaste Heat Recycling Pump Promises GredL Energy Savings
(BUSINESS JAPAN, Sep 80) 166
- Japan Said Able To Produce Only 20 Million Tons of Coal Annually
(THE JAPAN ECOI~JMIC JOURNAL, 9 Se~ 80) 168
, Goal Industry Revived, Enters New Area
(NIKKEI BUSINESS,2 Jun 8a) 171
New Coal Utilization Technology--Fluidized Bed Boiler, Gasification
(HITACHI HYORON, Apr 80) 191
Italia~ Paper Looks at Japan's Nuclear Power Program
(NOTIZIARIO COMITATO NAZIONALE PER L'ENERGIA NUCLEARE,
Jun 80) 207
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- JAPAN`S ENERGY CHOICES FOR FUT[JRE DISCUSSED
Unique Economic, Social Issues
Tokyo NIRA REPORT: MIRAI ENO SENTAKU, ENERUGI 0 KANGAERU in Japanese Sep 79
pp 10-11 ,
[Excerpt] l. Problem: Unique Economic and Social Issues Cited
Up to this point we have cansidered the energy problem common to the world and .
have considered the associated dilemma for three standpoints. Wc: next look into
the special dilemma which confronts Japan and will try to discu;~s the situat.ion.
_ Postwar Japan followed a catchup banner �tn order to overtake tY:Q leading coun-
tries of the West and succeeded in achieving a high growth often times called
"the miracle of Japan." The annual expansion of 10 percent attained during this
period was sustained mainly by investment in equipment and expansion of exports.
Leading technology from the West was introduced in a never ending manner and the
latest equipment of high productivity was installed, and investment followed in-
vestment in the pattein of growth which involved. In another direction, the
expansion in world trade established by IMF�GAT fixed the exchange rate at 360
yen under which standard Japan expanded its export market, and the restriction
called "the international balance of trade cei'ing" soon disappeared.
When considered in such a light, the industriousness of the Japanese people and
Japan's high educational level are domestic factors which had some bearing, but
in the background of this high level of growth to date is tb.e international en-
vironment during this period working so advantageously for Japan.
The same can be said for energy. The source of primary energy for Japan was
- shifted from coal to oil in 1961. At the same time, the quantity of energy
imported passed the 50 percent line. Coal which had been the main source of
domestically produced energy peaked at about 60 million tons after which it
entered a decreasing production trend. This type of change took place in the
midst of a worldwide revolution to liquid energy. It may be said that this pro-
cess was sharply accelerated in.the case of Japan which is so deficient in energy
- resources. The economic advantages of shift to a liquid fuel have already been
discussed. As this new stage was entered, Japan which is poor in resources was,
- conversely, to be in a position to select the most advantageous position in the
international energy market. At the same time, this course contributed greatly
to Japan's economic growth and nurturing of its international competitive strength.
1
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2. Expected Japanese Economic Growth and Increase in Energy Demand
Today we. have caught up with the western countries where "economic strength"
is concerned. On the other hand, now that we have lost the objectives which
we had hoped to surpass through some reckless moves, a fresh look at o~,~r sur-
~ roundings makes us aware that 1) there is a shift to a changing exchanf;e rate
and the appearance of protective trade which have made their appearance in the
worldwide economic organization, and degree of freedom and stability are being
lost and 2) there are still a large number of unresolved domestic problems in-
cluding home and living env~ronmental problems. It was fine when technology
developed by the leading countries of the world was introduced and we could rely
on cheap and abundant oil supply. In a certain sense, it was on].y necessary to
treat the world situation as a casual condition and simply consider how Japan
should react to the situation. This is no longer the case. We are now expected
to participate and contribute in the construction of new rails along with other
major countries. The fate of thp Japanese economy which has grown to giant
proportions is continuing to influence d~rections in the world economy. Busi-
ness recession and excessive small rate of growth result in reduced impor~ and
enhanced export pressure to eventually increase unemployment and business fail-
ures in other countries.
~
At the same time, it is necessary to maintain a suitable rate of growth even ~
from the standpoint of the various domestic problems. "We have caught up in
the matter of income flow, but we are still a long way off regardi.ng stock
[prices] backed by capital, compared to the Western wurld.
~ In order to respond to these foreign and domestic expectations, we must main-
tain a growth rate which is at least slightly higher than the average of the _
leading countries. On the other hand, this course signifies that there has to
be an increase in energy consumption above the average for the other leading
countries. Japan's oil import framework which was set at the Tokyo summit is
something which may be considered somewhat steep, but there are also some who !
consider it liberal. It may be possible to read in some of the world's expec-
tations of Japanese growth in this background.
This trend ind3cates that Japan's share of the world's energy consumption must _
necessarily increase. Now, in the midst of strengthening the degree of stabil- _
ity of the world's energy situa~ion, would such a course be possible for resource-
~ poor Japan? .There may be need for efforts twice ihat of other countries in con- -
version to a small energy consumpti~n type industrial structure and living
structure.
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I
National Strategy
Tokyo NIRA REPORT: MIRAI ENO SENTAKU, ENERUGI 0 KANGAERU in Japanese Sep 79
. pp 30-49 -
~ [Article: "National Energy Strategy"] ,
[Excerpts] 3-1 Energy Policy and Stable Assurance of Oil ~
1. Long-term Viewpoints in the Midst of the Second Oil Crisis
~ The assurance of a stable supply of oil is the most pressing problem if Japan
is to continue its stable economic development and improve its people's living
f rom here on.
The decline in oil supply which haci its inception with the Iranian political
- upheaval has caused an abrupt turn in our country's oil situation from the op-
timistic mode of 2 or 3 years ago. Even after Iran renewed its production,
this situation has not eased, and in fact, is becoming even more serious. As
seen in the ~~fforts of the United States to assure i*_s supply of light oil
- through impo~rt subsidies and the opposite trend of the European countries who
are exhibititig strong resistance against present policies, there is a trend to
depart from t.he race to maintain acquisition of oil for their respective coun-
- tries. One of the major problems of the future is just how the leading oil '
consuming countries in ,joint efforts will deal with this lack in supply of crude ~
oil and the associated high prices.
Even looking at Japan's short term supply and demand picture, the amount of oil
imported is far below what was initially anticipated, and the actual situation -
is that the re~serve stockpile is sufficient to cope with consumption. There is
also the factor of the rising price of crude oil, and we are preparing to meet
an even more serious situation. This may actually be termed the second oil
crisis. In th~e face of this situation, Japan has no effective program other
than thoroughl.y planned energy conservation and raiding its stockpiled oil.
The,re are urgent cries for an expanded policy with regard to oil import, but
there is nothixig that can serve as a trump card to counter the stringent oil
situation. -
~ If this oil situation persists in the future, the Japanese econom,y will undoubt-
edly be forced into a recession, and it will become difficult to store enough
strength for future conversions. Even though "time" may be purchased toward an
- energy policy as the result of decreased oil demand due to economic recession,
- it has to be acrompanied by "physical power" to execute any such plan otherwise
such an effort is meaningless.
What is ~mportant as far as Japan is concerned is to direct our eyes only on -
this short-term policy. At the present time, Japan's field of choice in the
selection of an oil policy has been narrowed down in the extreme, but we must =
never forget that the establishment of a firm future oil policy and a start in
~ its direction are also very important.
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2. Assurance of a Stable Oil Supply Is the Basis af a Comprehensive Energy _
Policy
- Japan's energy supply structure when compared to that of the western countries
- shows very great weight taken up by oil as the primary energy source, and there
_ is very high dependence on imported oil. Even if Japan were to proceed toward
a substitute energy source for oil in the future, such developments and intro-
duction are necessarily associated with various technological an.d economic
prohlems. While the position of oil in the energy supply structure may gradu-
ally ebb, there is no question but that the absolute quantity will see but a
very gradual decrease, and oil will continue for a considerably long period to
remain as the most important energy source.
Along with the vast quantities which are involved, the assurance of a stable
supply of oil also plays an important role in a different sense. The develop- .
ment and introduction of a substitute energy source and the conversion to an
energy conserving society, which a society seeking to disengage itself from
dependence on oil must see materialize, are associated with the indispensable
- element that the economic strength of a society dependent on oil as is presently
the case be maintained although this may sound paradoxical. Economic growth is
a must if a society is to be converted, and the assurance of a stable oil supply -
and subsequent large price increasgs caused the economy to stagnate, and we must
never forget that this greatly delayed future expansian. -
At the same time, as long as oil accounts for the greater fraction of our energy `
_ supply, there will be strong demand for an energy buffer capability with oil for -
- the future. The energy demand situation will change constantly with changes in
economic growth, delay in timing of energy development, suspended operation of -
nuclear power plants due to accidents and defects, and delays in energy conser-
- vation policies. In the past, these changes in supply and demand were buffered
by imported oil or, in other words, the Middle East oil producing countries
- served as the buffers. There is need from here on that some form of energy be
= available in reserve as the buffer force. There is no other candidate than oil ~
to iulfill this role when considered fram the standpoints of quality, quant~ty,
storage capability, cost, and the social structure.
In the midst of a worsening environment which enfolds the cil supply picture, _
Japan mtist by some means or other assure itself of a stable oil supply.
- 3. Disengagement from Oil Is Not ~rogressing
Tn the face of the newly changing energy picture during the 2 years after the '
oil crisis, the Advisory Committee for Energy responded with its "Energy Stabil- `
- izin~ Policy for the 1975 Decade--Selections of Stable Supply" in August 1975. _
This policy proposed "a turnaround will ~e made in the direction to oil which
was dictated by the past energy policies, and the next 10 years will be the
starting point from disengagement from an energy policy centered on oil," and `
- the experience of the oil crisis was used as the s~ringuoard for formulatirig a _
- specific assurance policy. ~
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Now, what is the picture 4 years later? The dependency rate on imported oil
which accounts for primary energy went from 74.2 percent (1974) to 74.4 per-
cent (1977), and dependence on Middle East oil went from 77.3 percer.t to 78.0
_ percent, and the ratio of self-developed oil remained essentially unchanged.
The principal factor responsible for this situation has been the very thin
- awareness of the future ener~y situation on the pazt of government, industry, _
and people abetted by the background of easing worldwide demand for oil. This
s ituation is clearly reflected in the nation's energ;~ budget. The fraction of -
the governnent's total budget taken up by energy decreased from 0.66 percent
(1970) to 0.53 percent (1978). The United States which has abundant oil re-
sources within its ~wn borders showed a large increase from 0.97 percent to 1~46
percent during the same period, and a comparison shows how Japan's attitude
toward its energy poZicy stands out. Frurthermore, tax revenue from energy re- _
lated sources centered on oil has increased. While assurance of energy stabili- -
zation is an i*nportant subject, there have been feeble attempts budget-wise to
move in such a direction. The increasin~ tax revenue from ene.rgy related sources
is being applied just as in the past to the constru~rion of roads in line with
this energy consumption. This is-the contradictory picture which is presented.
Then in October 1978 the Advisory Committee on Energy came up with its "Energy
Strategy for the 21st Century" in which it reiterated its stand with something
more specific than its previous statement, but the basic policy was essentially "
the same as before. -
4. Resolution of the "Energy Strategy for the 21st Century"
An outline of this "Energy strategy for the 21st Century" is discussed next.
1) Promol�ion of diversification of oil so.urces to assure supply
a) Diversification of oil supply sources and procurement rates: The oil supply
sources will be dispersed so that at least 30 percent of the total imports will
be from Asia. Make a11 out effort toward self-developed supply sources by
direct negotiations with produci~lg countries (DD oil) and by intergovernmental
� negotiations (DD oil) . ~
b~ Promote a stable deal for government oil: Increase the rati~ of self-devel- _
oped oil and GG oil to 30 percent by 1990.
c) Promote crude oil policy: Go to import of crude oil and promote technology
to crack crude oil to produce lighter fractions to meet the demand for the -
- l.ighter fractions. _
2) Promote development of oil
I
Obtain 1.5 million 'oarrels/day equivalent. to 20 percent of the nation's demand -
f or oil from self-developed sourcos by 1990. Expand the capabilities of the (iil
- I3evelopment Public Corporation to this end, and promotion of the development of
= the continental shelf and the provision of subsidies ro the development industries
_ will be planned .
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3) Reinforce countermeasures for emergencies
a) Increase oi1 stockpile: In addition eo a 90-day supply for private industry,
plan~for a 30 million K1 (about 30 days supply) for the country's stockpile
according to a long-term plan.
b) Strengthen administrative measures fc~r emergencies.
4) Rational use of oil
Promote rational use of oil through reducing the combustion of crude oil and =
naphtha.
5) Maintain reasonable price of oil
Entrust the price of oil to a free market and maintain it at an appropriate
level.
6) Reinforce constitution of the oil industry
Plan reinforcement and concentration of the oil industry's constitution as an _
energy industry. ,
~
7) Internstional cooperation
- Engage in a cooperative system with oil producing countries and leading con-
sumer countries in order to eas~ oil supply and demand.
3-2 Basic Problems in Development of an Oil Policy
1. Tenacious and Strong Efforts Required To Expand DD Crude Oil
The most pressing problem in the assurance of a~.'_able oil supply is how to
stabilize impar+, from the Middle East countries. ~
The oil-producing countries of the Middle East are on a course to strengthen -
their control over oil resources. Furthermore, excluding the majors is one
of the large objectives in the modernization of the oil-producing countries,
and it is expected that there will be greater desire to expand the direct oil
sales (DD�GG crude oil) on the part of these oil-producing countries in the
future. As a result, the question whether to import DD crude oil will become
, the crucial point in the stable assurance of Middle East oil. The expansion
o~ DD crude oil will be the top problem fur the private system oil industries
in which reduction in consumption on the part of the major industries has been
re~orted. "
The crude oil supply in the past was dependent almost entirely on the ma3ors.
- Wlzere the private industries which possessed little negotiating pathways with
~ the oil-producing countries and not many overseas offices to gather information
were concerned, it was difficult to alter supply routes, and it was extremely
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difficult to expand DD crude oil in this present stage of a seller's market.
On the other hand, should effort be directed at expanding the DD crude oil -
supply from a long-range viewpoint, it does not seem impossible to realize in
the future. Japan's oil industry which owns its own refineries and is direcCly
tied in with the consumers is undoubtedly inviting crude oil trade centers for
- the oil-produc ing countries wh ich are trying to eliminate any intermediate
exploitation. The important point here is for Japan's industries to win out
in their competition with the majors and be determined to expand DD crude o~l.
_ Economic and technological cooperation with the Middle East countries is not an
absolute cond ition for assurance of a stable oil supply, but the tightening up =
of foreign relationships, cooperation with construction of petrocheraical plants
in the Middle East, participation of Japanese industry in Middle East oil _
- refinery operations and import oil products, entry of oil-producing countries'
= capital into the Japanese market, and all out reception of products of oil-
producing countries will undoubtedly be useful in assuring a stable oil supply.
The government's role in this matter is very large, and a determined policy in
- this direction is desirable.
2. Formation of an Appealing Oil Market
It may be said that nationalization of oil by the oil-producing countries is
proceeding wh ile the volume of crude oil supply on the part of the majors is
decreasing year by year, yet the power of these majors in the international oil
market has become stronger than before. Even though we undertake all out expanded
direct purchase o� oil from the oil-producing countries and increase self-
- developed oil supply, there is no way but for the Japanese oil supply to depend
_ largely on these majors, and Japan cannot be assured of a stable oil supply with- .
_ out the cooperation of the majors.
Whether the majors plan for a stabilized supply of crude oil and oil products to
Japan will depend in the final analysis on what appeal Japan offers as a market.
The basis for making this judgment is basically the stability of the government
and whether t he principles of freedom of industry are formulated. In this -
respect Japan offer~ a sufficiently appealing market compared to other countries,
~ and this situation will probably continue in the future. In addition, the profit -
- level has great possibility of being a very large price factor where future oil
supply is concerned.
_ The majors us ed the Iran crisis as the excuse to come forth with a long-term
policy of reducing supply to Japan's private oil comp�anies and thereby caused
a great impact . This policy had been trar.smitt~d to ,Japan `s private oil :I~dus-
tries directly after the previous oil crisis and was further developed by the
reduction in oil production resulting from Iran's political upheaval. There
- are not only restrictions to the volume of crude oil which can be purchased
but also a profit motive on the part of the majors to sell at the most advan-
tageous price which stands in the background. It is clear that the majors are
~ planning diversification to energy areas oi:her than oil in the future, and this _
is probably t o be expected when one cor.siders that there must eventually be _
some other resource to bank on besides oil.
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~ It does not seem likely that the majors are setting long-term strategy only =
- through short-term profit, but there is no daubt that profit is an important
- judgment matter as far as the Japanese market is concerned. As a result, the
- price of Japanese oil products will need to be established along the lines of
a reasonable product price system which reflects the cost of the crude oil,
storage, purification, transport and sales.
3. Overcoming Quality Restrictions Through Demand Introduction ~
- The problems arising from the stringency of the oil supply are not only limited
volume and incrPased cost, but the problem of supply and demand ur~balance ~aith
respect to q~iality is also considerable.
1) Reduction in breath of types of crude ~il to select resulting from stringent
demand and supply situation of oil. _
2) Trend of the Middle East oil-producing countries to produce heavier oil and
increase in Chinese oil.
- 3) Increase in demand for light oils due to environmental regulations. ~
- 4) Reduction in demand for heavy oil to be used in power production due to in- -
creased use of nuclear power, coal, and LNG. -
These are the trends to heavy oils in the crude oil suFply situation and to -
- light oils in the product demand end whtch is expected to make the supply and
demand unbalance more pronounced in the future. The demand for light oils in
the past was resolved by altering the type of crude oil imported, but the range ~ -
~ of this adjustment has been greatly curtailed in this time of unstable oil
- supply. It is possible starting from a given crude oil to alter the yield
ratio to a certain degree through the equipment and technology presently avail-
- able, but the range is rather limited. As a result, the introduction of a demand
which is in the form of a rational utilization structure of oil is the course _
_ for Japan overall. Speaking in,a more specific mariner, it may be necessary to
revise the present policy of burning crude oil and naphtha in the raw state for
power production (this amounted to about 28 million K1 in JFY 1978). At the same
time, the present policy of specifying even the type of fuel to be used which
is in force in industry and local self-governing groups in their pollution pre-
vention agrPements needs to be revised.
In addition, there may be need ~o study changes in JIS specifications regarding -
products in order to provide flexibility 3n supply of inCermediate components
- (lamp oil, light oil, A heavy oil) and supply products in line with the objec-
tives of use. In order to respond to the limitations in quality, there may be
- need to limit to a certain degree the free selection of fuel on the part of the
consumer through a policy on the part of the country which is making the intro- -
duction. _
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va:urally there are limitations even to such a response, and the introduction
of heavy oil cracking facilities may eventually be necessary. There is, at
Che present time, a national pro~ect to provide heavy oil cracking facilities
being planned in line with the expanded import of Chinese ~rude oil. There is
~ a trend to the development of a price dif ferential betwezn light crude oil and
heavy crude oil, and the sale price of lamp and li~ht oi1 wili be expected to
increase considerauly. If the cracking cost can cover this price differentia.l,
introduction of heavy oil cracking facilities by industry will probably proceed.
4. Utilizing IndusCrial Activity and Follow Up on Industrial Responsibility
As the age of oil supply instability is entered, the number of problems with
regard to an oil policy are numerous, starting with the assurance of a stable
supply of crude oil. As long as the oil supply is the foundation of industrial
activity and people's living activity, there will be greater need for the role
- which government plays in the future, but the role which the oil industries must
play is even greater.
The policy of this country in the past with regard to this basic oil industry
has been to provide management such as issuing permission to set up refinery
facilities by means of the oil industry law and reporting the valume of oil and
products imported and thereby stabilizing the demand and supply picture and the
price of oil products as well as planning developm?nt of the oil industry and
protecting the consumer. In addition, since oil is a basic material where in-
dustry and economy are concerned, various types of directions have been taken
by the government with regard to the oil industry reflecting the industrial and
economic policies of that particular time.
These practices involved Gome unavoidable factors from the standpoint of the im-
plementation of this country's economic policy, but the result has been that
Japan's oil industry has from way back been associated with a brittle industrial
structure, and it is but of a I.imited activity level compared to overseas oil
industries. This is tied in to the situation that~the ratio of self-generated
capital on the part of the oil industry is about one-third that of other indus-
tries and the profiC ratio versus sales is but one-half that of other industries.
The mission of Japan's oil industry in sustaining Japanese economy and lifestyle
in its role as a basic industry in this increasingly intensifying world oi1 mar-
~ ket is very important. At the same time, there is greater expectation of activity
generated by the oil industry itself so that Japan's oil policy can be energetic-
- ally promoted in the future.
It will be difficult to construct an industrial base which will function properly
3n rhe world market if we were to rely only on the protective training policy
which the government has been championing up to the present. What is important
_ here is that there is a policy in which the activiLies of individual industries
= are actively promoted under the conditions of free competition, efforts to stabil-
: ize oil supply including the oil supplying capability enhancement by industry are
evaluated, and a policy to subs~dize such efforts. As a result, industries which
cannot fulfiil tt~e roles of basic industry are weeded out or c~nsolidation of
industries may proceed.
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- 3-3 Counteracting Interruption to Energy Supply
1. The Highly Possible Interruption of Oil Supply
The oil crisis of 1973 may be said to have been the major national crisis
~ faced by Japan since the end of World War II. The net result was that de-
spite the very small level of lack in oil, Japanese society was faced with
deep instability and confusion at that time. At the same time, the Japanese
- peopl e went through this experience and became aware of the close tie-in of
_ energy and their daily living and to comprehend what a fragile base this
_ energy was founded on.
~ The declining oil supply which had its start with the Iranian political
upheaval is the second oil crisis the effects of which on Japan are becoming
a concern. There is already the situation that this reduction in quantity of
imported oil has resulted in the use of stockpiled oil, and some serious prob-
lems are anticipated in winter when this demand will increase.
' The specialists have said that Japan must be prepared to undergo a number of
oil supply interruptions of a worldwide scale up to about 1990. The factors
responsible for this possibility which have been cited are 1) political insta-
bilit y of the oil-producing countries headed by Iran, 2) promotion of separate
peace between Egypt and Israel which represents a confrontation involvi.ng
specific governmental problem, and 3) large-scale destructive activities on
oil p roduction facilities and transpor~ation routes on the part of radical ele-
- ment s .
No matter what the cause may be, if we consider our dependence on imported
oil; the thin lines which tie together the history, economics, and politics of
the Middle East countries; and the geographical handicap, it cannot be denied
that Japan is in a position which can be most easily affected.
Should the future energy demand and supply pursuit era be ,accurately assessed,
the possibility of interruption in the oil supply is expected to increase more
= and more, and even a slight interruption may cause considerable impact on a
- worldwide basis.
- As a result, the response to an interruption to the energy supply will neces-
sarily involve a fragile resources position, but there is need to place this in
the proper perspective as one of the basic subjects among all the country's
- energy policies.
2, Lessons from the Oil Crisis and Future Response
The oil crisis of 1973 was ef rather small scope when the actual reduction in
supplies is considered, and it lasted only some 2-3 months. It was of a
rela tively slight degree as the degree of interruption in oil supplies is
conc erned. Desp ite this situation, this oil crisis created some grave prob-
- lems which reverberated over this country's society and left behind some very
important lessons.
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First of all, various lack of supplies unnecessarily fostered a feeling of ~
crisis, and society's confusion was intensified. It is now being recognized
as a goad experience. At that time, Japan's provisions was not simply the
accumulation of oil res~erves, but it was extreme3y weak as far as systematic.
pr~parations and mental attltude were concerned, and ~he result was that Japan
_ was one of *he consumer countries against which the sCrategy of the oil-
producing countries exploited to the maximum.
Secondly, even though an actiial oil insufficiency did not develop, an oil cri-
- sis took place, and we experienced the situation showing how important informa-
tion is. Even when articles actiually were not scarce, once the consumers obtain
information of a shortage, simply believing this information will by itself bring
on a shortage. That is to say, the adverse atmosphere of increase in pseudo `
demand actual shortages increased anxiety on the part of consumers hoarding
is created rather readily. At the same time, just because this is so, there is
a good possibility that this cycle can repeat itself in the future. `
When the responses to the interruption in oil supplies are classified, there are
the preparations for the crisis (bef~re the fact measures) and emergency measures
(after the fact countermeasures). On the other hand, basically speaking, reduc-
tion in dependency on oil and promotion of the overall energy policy such as
- reinforcing ties with oil-producing countries are necessary. On the other
hand, when we consider Japan's experience in the previous oil crisis and Japan's
dependence on oil, the increased amassment of materials such as oil stockpiling ~
_ may be important as a crisis controlling countermeasure, but, at the same time,
the establishment of a crisis control system which operates in an emergency
state based on information and determination is also indispensable. The estab-
lishment of such an emergency control countermeasure is tied in with quieting
down the people in times of emergency.
3. Makeup of the Emergency Control Countermeasure and Problem Areas
Since the previous oil shock, the emergency control countermeasures centered on
oil stockpiling have moved in a direction of materialization. The advancing
situation and proble~ areas are summarized below. [see table on following page]
4. Conditions for Promoting Crisis Control Countermeasures
The reinforcement of the various countermeasures are all the more necessary in
order to rid ourselves of this crisis without too much difficulty. In such a -
case, an effective crisis control countermeasure is not realized unless the ~
following policies are developed and acceptance by the people is attained. _
= 1) Bear cost of engaging the crisis
_ "Safety cannot be purchased without cost" is something the people should be
aware of. For example, a larger stockpile is better in terms of number of days
of oil supply, but one must not forget that while the greater the number of
days of stockpile may be increased, a day's increase in stor~d oil will involve
crude oil cost, capital of about 60 million yen for tank fac`:lities, and inter-
est and manpower cost to make up the tremendous sum of 7 billion yen. There
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i
w a~
o N N
~ p y Main laws related Countermeasures promotion
_ ~ o y Item to measures situation and problem areas
H
consuming oil demand and supply --insufficiei~t system to retrieve
regulations rationalization law, information on the part of con-
electrical industry sumers (mainly large)
law --distribution line systems and
limits of use of electric power
are diFficult to set up
ro quota oil demand and supply --at the present time, MITI is
~ distribution rationalizarion law studying systems divided into
~ private use oil (lighting, gasoline)
'b and to industrial use oil
~
, ~ --rationing stamp system readied
~ for private use
b
--no mutual financing syste~n set
up between oil companies
price emergency management --standard prices are designated
countermeasure law for stabilizing for lamp oil and LPG during the
people's activities, oil crisis.
- price systematization
law
reinforced oil stockpiling law --every company storing oil aim-
oil ing for a 90-day supply by end of
stockpiling JFY 1979 (about 83 days supply at
end of JFY 1978)
--the country's stockpile as of
end of JFY 1978 was about 5 mil-
lion K1 stored in cankers.
10 million Kl targeted.
- ~s
~ understanding rationalization law --the oil flow through informat~on
t� domestic for oil supply and system is complete. Rationing sys-
r.~'i storage demand tem or international financial sys-
~ tem link will be problems for future
~
~
destruction oil demand and supply --private and government stockpiles
of stockpiles rationalization law, and even individual oil company
oil stockpile law stockpiles being destroyed will have
- to be studied through the means of
what preparations are necessary
international IAEA oil financing --system is essentially complete
financing of system --financing between domestic oil
- oil companies and setting up distribu-
~ ~ tion system whicll correspond to
~ this sytem are subjects.
~ a~
accumulation of --the failure to install central-
~ .
,.�1, information from ized"information collecting system
_ oil-producing , is problem.
countries ~
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is no other road eventually other than resolving th+~ acquisition of capital
and its payment by placing them on the backs of the neople.
2) Incentive for executing crisis control countermeasures
The handling of the crisis is not only an important s~bjec*_ for an energy poli-
cy, but there is need to consider ?nanagement in which the various countermea-
sures for crisis control are promoted automatically. For example, there are
the legal responsib~lities for reinforcing the oil stockpile. There is also =
need for a policy which provides not only fiscal aid but strives to increase _
the stockpile even beyond the required level.
3) Suitable administration of society and economy
The real nature of the energy crisis appears during an economic and social
- crisis. First of all, suitable administration of the society and ec~nomy
become the premise for crisis control countermeasures. A monitoring system
which feeds back to a central station in short time at least changes in so-
ciety and economy may need to be established. -
4) Concurrence to composed correlation
The basic countermeasure to cope with a crisis is cool action on the part of _
a nation's people, and any crisis control countermeasure wi11 have little
difficulty sucoeeding should this factor be lost. In the particular case of
today's information oriented society, a fraction of disordPred actions may
lead to confusion over the entire country.
3-4 Point Toward Leading Energy Conservation Countries
1. Conservation of Energy Rivals Resources Development -
When the fragile energy supply base and the environmental restriction of this
small country are considere`d, the importance of the subject of conservation of
erergy cannot be overemphasized. This is an area in which Japan's own unique
development is possible compared to the other energy policies, and it has the
' effect of rivaling the deve].opment of a new resource. The accumulation of energy
conservation technology and experience not only wi1Z help ease Japan's fragile
nature but will contribute to conservation of energy tor the entire world.
Japan once was criticized as the leading country where po:l.lution was concerned, _
~ but it presently is ranked with those countries which are leading the world in
the matter of preventing pollution. Similar schemes and efforts in the direc-
tion of energy conservation are necessary.
The 1973 oil crisis had the effect of creating awarer.ess over a wide area of
the necessity for energy conservation. One has to look no further than the
steel industries which in JFY 1978 sucoeeded in reducing energy consumpti~n by -
9 percent from among the large energy consuming industries. Great advances -
have been made in conservation. On the other hand, transportation use and
civilian use energies, particularly the latter, reflect the trends to multiple
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uses ~~f energy as a result of the rise in living standards, and not much pro- _
gress is seen.
- At the present time, IEA has established a 5 percent cutback in oil consump-
tiori for 1979 and 1980 as its response to worldwide oil supply and demand
stringency. Japan which has a higher degree of nependency on oil than other
countries must immediately adopt a"cutdown in oil use" even for the short
term. In addi*_ion, this last Tokyo summit meeting established the framework
for oil import on the part of participating countries not only for the present
but up to 1985. Japan's quota for import in 1985 will be 6.3-6.9 million bar-
" rels/day, and there will be need for even greater energy conservation efforts
from here on if this goal is to be realized and the international cooperative
effort is to succeed. The government presently is involved in various eco~nomy
- directing plans, but the basic road to achieve full success is for the indivi-
dual countryman to become aware of this serious situation and adopt measures
to conserve resources and energy.
Japan's energy conservation policies are in the position of simultaneously _
~ taking care of the present oil conservation practices and the long-term struc-
tural energy conservation directed efforts. ;
_ 2. Basic Preparation for Urging Energy Conservation Movements ~
The need for even stronger policy management will probably arise in line with .
the oil conservation efforts at hand. At the same time, it should be emphasized _
that this experience will be the basis for the enactment of conservation programs _
for this type of short-term stringencies which are expected to become future
problems,
In another direction, in contrast to this emergency and refuge type "conserva-
tion," long-term and structural conservation of energy must be regarded as
having even greater significance. There is need to open a path by which con-
servation of energy as a final effect that truly ties together enhancement of
activities of individual industries and household activities.
Consequently, there is need, f irst of all, to restructure the existing social
makeup which stands in the way af these measures and to provide incentives for
energy conservation to the different social groups if conservation is to be
promoted. Conversely, there is also need to create a negative incentive with
- regard to costs.
There are roughly four areas in the provisioning of social conditions. The
�irst is to foment awareness of the energy situation. This is a necessary con-
dition not only to energy conservation but to the entire field of energy poli-
cies. For example, the drafting of a readily understandable "white paper" as
a regular type information medium is a must.
Secondly, the activation of a price mechanism. The upward cost of energy in
the short term brings about economy measures, and in the long term, brings about
conservation in expenditures for energy and then further to energy conserving
type industrial structure.
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The third item is the setting up of a legal environment. The conservation of
energy law was enacted in June 1979. When one cons3.ders the bruadness of the
conservation of energy concept, this law is but one step forward in the area
of 2nergy conservation management. It is hoped that tl~e establishment and.
enforcement of various specific guidelines will be forthcoming as soon as
possible.
The fourth item is the provision of finance and tax conditions. Incentives
along the lines of Funds and tax breaks should be effective in promoting in-
vestment in energy conservation efforts, research and development, and insula- ~
tion of buildings. -
3. Reinforcing Plans To Induce Investment in Conservation of Energy
Reinforced heat management and investment in comparatively short-term recovery
type conservation of energy efforts have represented the reduction in energy
cost programs of industries since the oil crisis. On the other hand, these
practices are presently operating at their limits, and the stage has arrived -
tnat new steps requiring even greater investment are in order. The increase
in the cost of crude oil since 1979 has increased the advantages from invest-
ment in energy conservation. The gevernment must correctly assess these move- _
ments and provide management to support such actions. For example, the energy
conservation fund whose framework is managed by the Japan Development Bank can
be expanded, the conditions for its grants be relaxed, and the range of appli-
cation be expanded. In addition, there should be a special amortization
system for energy conservation facilities. Some effects can also be expected _
from the reactivation of the ener.gy conservation fund tax education system
which was enacted in 1978.
Even in the medium and small indus,tries where energy conservation policies are
relatively delayed, technological,guidance in the form of the "Energy Conser-
vation Center" established in the fall of 1978 is expected to be helpful. At
the same time, the energy conservation fund for medium and small industries
granted by the national treasury needs to be expanded, and detailed management
is necessary.
In addition, the importance- of research and development in promo~ing conserva-
tion of energy cannot be neglected. The govErnment initiated the "Moonlight
Plan" in JFY 1978. This project promotes development of large type technology
~ such as MHD power development and waste heat utilization technology system,
assistance to development of private conservation of energy technology starting
off with solar energy, popularization and standardization of energy conserving
equipment, and international joint research. A resolve to become a leading
energy conservation technology country in both the hard and soft areas is being
aimed for by this country which is so poor in natural resources.
It should not be overlooked that there are many instances in which cooperation
between business and industry is overcoming many difficult problem areas. For
example, the cost of energy for ma.i.ntaining excessive product quality is con-
siderable, and cooperation between the developing side and the user side is a
must even though this is a technology development problem.
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4. Establishing and Assisting Thermal Insulating SCandards
~ The energy conservation efforts on the part of the private sector upon which
' the greatest expectations can be placed are the insulated construction of _
homes and buildi.ngs. Taking a household as an example, the energy consumption _
is split roughly 3 ways into heating and cooling (31.3 percent), hot water
supply (36.7 percent), and kitchen and other uses (31.8 percent). When one
considers that the rise in the standard of living will cause heating and cool- -
ing demands to increase at a faster rate in the future, the significance of
thermal insulation becomes that much greater. There is a special fund offered
~ by the residenti.al loan treasury for improving home insulation, and this fund
needs to be expanded. There is also need to study new subsidy systems and tax
breaks for new efforts in management of solar heat use. Homes and buildings
represent an area which has been incorporated into the energy conservation
law, but the establishment of guidelinzs on advice related to insulating and
heating and cooling to people engaged 3.n construction and practical use of these
- measures are awaited.
Furthermore, there must be plans to improve the eff iciency of energy consuming ,
machines. This area is also included in the energy conservation law. Guide-
lines will be set up for special machines such as automobiles, and the efforts j
of the manufacturers in this direction will be encouraged. On the other hand, I
this move will have little effect unless the consumer selects automobiles of '
good efficiency. The display of energ,y ef�iciency (labeling) has b~rn mandated.
There may also be some effect in legally and socially regulating excessive qual-
ity and excessive service in the private sector particularly regarding use of
air conditioners in the sales and service area.
The difficulty in energy management in the private sector starting with the
homes may be based on the problem of requiring a revolution in awareness. On
the other hand, we must not lose sight of the fact that this awareness revolu-
tion can be abetted from the technology front by measures such as the automa-
tion of temperature control. Finally, it can be said that the objectives of
energy conservation are concerned not only tai.th direct energy consumption but
should also include conservation of resources and energy efforts in all phases
of sales and service processes where large quantities of energy are involved.
3-5 Determi.nation To Opt for Nuclear Power
1. Evaluation of the Track Record of Nuclear Power Utilization and Expectations
There is taking place in Japan a degree of confrontation between hopes for nu-
clear power and an insecurity about nuclear power utilization so complex that
it 3s seen nowhere else. This is the result of the very serious energy situa- _
tion which has made people look to nuclear energq .as a prime candidate to pro-
�ride this needed power while there are others who feel very unsafe as far as
nuclear power is concerned because of the n3rrow land area and the atomic bomb
experience.
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There are presently nuclear pAwer plants operating in the major countries of
the world which are producing more than 100 million KW. While there are dif-
~ ferences between countries, this source of power accounts for 2-5 percent of -
the pr:!mary energy source.
~ When we review the future nuclear power development plans of different coun-
- tries, they all project power generation quite beyond that which seems possi- _
ble from the present scale of construction. The fraction which nuclear power
wi].1 deliver with respect to all other power sources in 1985 is expected to be
- 6.7 percent in the iJnite~ States, 10.3 percent in West Germany, 22.5-23.% per-
cent in France, 6.0 percent in Great Britain, and 6.7 percent in Japan.
Even the United States whicY: produces more than half of its oil needs from do-
mestic sources snd with abundant coal and natural gas resources, Great Britain
with its North Sea oil fields, and West Germany with domestic coal deposits
have placed r:~~clear power as one of their prime energy resources. France has '
decided to use electric power to supply most of its energy needs, and it is
following a plan to provide 55 percent of its electric power from nuclear energy
in 1985.
As long as it is possible Co control the environmental and safety problems as~o-
ciated with the operation of nuclear power plants by technology, there is great _
significance to the use of nuclear power. Generaliy speaking, a technology
which has come to account for several percent of an energy supply process can
have its utilization exp~nded still further through effort alone.
Japan has to direct greater effort than other countries to the utilization of
nuclear energy both as an energy source to tide us over short-term instabili-
- ties caused by oil and as the main source of energy for the 21st century after
- oil is depleted, and efforts in this direction must not be neglected.
2. Difficulty in Understanaing Nuclear Power Technology and Safety Judgment
There are also some critical thoughts directed against the use of nuclear power.
Thoughts of the effects of radiation on man and the environment, the insecurity
abouti the disposal of radioactive wastes discharged from nuclear reactors, and
the effect of warm water discharged from nuclear power plants on fish and marine
~ life are the reasons often g3.ven by local people ~or opposition to the siting
of nuclear power plants. There are cases which are fought in the courts, cases
being negoti~ated, and cases taking the form of public demonstrations.
This lack of unity of the nation's people regarding the utilization of nuclear -
power in the face of the worsening energy situation must be because there is -
inevitably some feeling of insecurity left. In addition ~o the difficulty in
understanding nuclear power technology and the language used therein, the dif-
ficulty in presenting a clearly demonstrable and understandable explanation of
the safety aspects is a major reason. The following two points may have to be
considered in efforts to resolve this insecurity in the midst of the situation
where in�ormation is difficult to understand.
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The first is the evaluation of safety assessment technology unique to nuclear
power and the trust on this assessment. The technology utilized in generating _
nuclear power was developed over a course of more than 20 years. Generally '
speaking, the risk accompanying utilization of technology becomes more circum-
spect as society develops and nuclear power utilization technology is dominated
by far more safety oriented standards compared to technology of the past. SomP
- examples which can ~~e given here are safety evaluations on the basis of assumed _
accidents and methods of risk evaluation. There is no pravious example in ~
which as a technology is being developed, methods for assessing safety are be- _
ing incorporated into the rl~velopment. This is something which needs to be _
~ evaluated and believed.
Another item is demonstrative research on safety in the broad sense of the word.
It is a fact that uneasi.ness cannot be dissipated unless safety can be demon-
- strated before one's eyes. What will occur under any given circumstance, and
how the accompanying phenomena are eval:uated must be accurately demonstrated.
This involves even more involvement in demonstration research on safety, and
the need then becomes to offer specific proof based on actual cases.
3. Independent Nuclear Fuel Cycle and I~uclear Proliferation Safeguards ,
,I
Promotion of nuclear power utilization will enhance Japan's bargaining power in !
the international energy market and is also tied in to energy security.
The situation that uranium resoutces are mostly dependent on imports is no dif-
ferent from that of oil, but the volume of fuel used is extremely small, the
fuel is easy to store, and the fuel is used for more than 3 years within a
- reactor making for a very long period of use as a result of which this fuel ~
may be classed as quasi-domestically produced energy.
In order to develop this bargaining power and be able to freely use this type
of nuclear power, there is need to develop independently the facilities and ~
technology for our own enrichment fuel processing nuclear reactor repro-
cessing facility fast breeder reactor waste treatment and disposal system.
In order that we can be free of conditions imposed by other countries where our
use of uranium fuel is concerned, we ne~d an independent nuclear fuel cycle
which we can control. Even to effectively use the uranium fuel which has come
into our hands, we will have to have our owr. enrichment, reprocessing facili-
ties, and fast breeder reactor at hand.
In another direction, security considerations directed at preventing nuclear
proliferation are also important. Nuclear enrichment technology and repro-
cessing technology can be tied into nuclear weapons production as a result of
which a defenseless nuclear proliferation program is associated with many prob-
- lems. While a supply guarantee system for nuclear fuel was being created and
nuclear proliferation atenrichment facilities was being guarded, the reprocess-
ing of spent fuel was suspended for a considerable period in accordance with
the policy adopted by the United States which had already been introduced.
Japan which must absolutely look to nuclear power in the face of tr~.s nuclear
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power proliferation prevention in which international cooperation is an abso-
l~ite condition nas the responsibility of embracing these two security items in .
an all out manner. Japan must make specific contributions to nuclear prolifer-
ation safeguards such as reinforcing the intErnational observation system,
- internat3.onalization of enrichment facilities, and study of an international =
control system for plutonium. In the Asian theater which is so full of com- _
plex elements even in the political area, Japan has an i~portant role in pro- _
moting tl:e utilization of nuclear power while keeping these problems in balance.
4. Long-Term Strategy for Nuclear Power Development and Pr~blems To Be Faced
~ As discussed to this point, the thesis for urgent selection of nuclear power
spans a wide area. It involves not only technological feasitility which is
obvious but also greatly involves various elements of government, society, and
economy. _
As the elements to be considered increase, so will the insecure material in-
crease. New material for criticism and evaluation are continually coming to ~
the fore such as emphasis on nuclear proliferation safeguards, possibility of
obtaining oil and uranium resources, and the safety technology of nuclear reac-
tors as exemplified by the experience of the Three'Mile Island incident. -
There is need to once more clearly define the role of nuclear power reactors and
establish a long-term strategy for nuclear power development in the midst of
these energy policies, technological policies, and foreign negotiation policies
and in the midst of a large soc3al system in going about a positive program for
utilization of nuclear power. Such an approach must be adjustable to accommo-
date energy, nuclear power industry, safety, science and technology, and fiscal
factors. If practical and specific objectives are indicated, they will not only
serve as guidelines to nuclear power development but also provide some informa-
tive material to the many who are uneasy about the nuclear power program. _
At the same time, it is extre~?ely important to fix nuclear power development at
its present state in order to plan expansion of reliable nuclear power utiliza-
tion based on a long-term strategy. The decision whether the next generation
will use nuclear power as an energy source will be decided by the performance
of the present power plants based mainly on the light water reactors according
to whether they will develop the reliability needed by fulfilling the following
_ points.
1) Experience and record of stable operation in which safety assurance takes
top priority.
2) Vigorous promotion of improvement and standardization of light water reac-
- tors and efforts in establishing independent technology on the overall nuclear
f uel cycle.
3) Positive involvement in international joint research and promotion of
safety demonstration research.
4) Appropriate coordination between industry and government.
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3-6 Efforts To Fix Nuclear Power Utilization
_ 1. Accumulation of Stable Operating Record of Nuclear Power Development
Nuclear power development in Japan started off with a Calder Hall type gas
cooled reactor imported from Great Britain, and this was the start of power
development for commercial use. This was followed in 1970 by the start in
, operations of the number one members of the BWR and PWR type light water reac-
tors after which development of light water reactors has continued. Other
than the Advanced Converter Reactor (165 KW electrical) prototype which is
presently being operated and the prototype of the Fast Breeder Reactor (300,000
KW electrical) for which construction preparations are now under ~aay, the
reactors for pow~er use in Japan are all light water reactors except for the
= aforementioned single gas cooled reactor. -
= As of July 1979, there were 19 reactors operating producing 12.68 milli~n KW
and 9 reactors under construction f or producing 8.11 million KW which were
under constructien or in test operation. In addition, tt~ere were 7 reactors
designed to produce 7.09 million KW which come under the country's basic elec-
trical power production plan and wh3.ch are awaiting permits or approval in-
spection. When all of these reactors go on stream, the total output will be
27.88 million KW. The country's plan calls for 30 million KW in 1985. -
The operational situation of a nuclear power reactor is given by its time
availability factor which is the average for commercial use reactors. This
was 60.4 percent in 1976, 46.6 percent in 1977, and 63.4 percent in 1978, and
it is low. There must be a suspension in reactor operation once a year for
nartial fuel replacement, and there are also the 2-3 months per year when -
~ government specified periodic examinat3ons have to be performed. In addition,
� when a reactor in Japan develops a flaw, all similar reactors have to be shut
down to undergo detailed inspection. On the other hand, experiences such as
these cause the technology to mature, and there ma.y be need for efforts to pro-
vide truly stabilized technology and stabilized operation by directing diligent ~
countermeasures for even the slightest abnormality. Lowered availability fac-
tor reduces the economic factors, however, to sacrifice economy at this stage
of being at the gate to long-term nuclear power utilization and to emphasize _
_ safety is thought to eventually hasten the pathway to effective utilization of
nuclear power. As a result of this prudent practice, records of stabilized
operation can be accumulated, and this will serve as a fixed necessary condi-
tion for society.
2. Independent LWR Technology and Its Modification and Standardization
Nuclear power energy is produced as fruit of research. This is why �uture energy
is said to reside in the brain.
Japan's nuclear power technology is for the most part in line with the world's -
leading technology, and we should parCicipate in this development not only as
benefactors of nuclear power but as creators of resources to be passed to the
next generation and thereby contribute to the peaceful utilization of nuclear
power.
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There are some who say that light water reactor technology is dependent on the
United States. On the other hand, excepting the rather small volume of research
records which have been amassed thus far, it may be thought presently that
the technology has been nearly completely absorbed into a uniquely Japanese =
technology. When some abnormality is discovered in a same type reactor in
the Unired States, there is need for prudent action such as also inspecting
Che same type Japanese reactors. At the same time, the more reactors there
are of the same kind, the greater will be the wealth of operating experience
whicr~ will be compiled.
T.he experience derived from operating and controlling the reactors to date was
directed at improvements to the light water reactor the program of which was
started in 1975, and plans are under way to design a Japanese type light water
reactor. Design will be improved on sites where troubles have been experienced
in the past, overall reliability of the reactor will be improved, efficiency of
spot inspections and r~pairs will be improved, these improvements will be em-
- ployed to stabilize and improve the availability factor, and efforts will be
directed to reduce radiation dose to workers. In this manner, an improved
nuclear reactor produced by independent technology is planned to be constructed
- as a standard plant.
AJ1 the other countries headed by the United States are studying the possibil- -
ity of creating a single standard design plant for each maker. The improvement
~ and standardization research being promoted in Japan is characterized in that
1) many makers are coordinating Cheir efforts, 2) by introducing Japanese modi-
fications and improvements, a single standardized reactor will be developed.
On the other hand, the improvement and standardization plan now being promoted
' amounts to nothing more than partial improvement over the original American
reactor. This present design needs to be further improved by increasing the
breadth of the improvements, considering reactor abandonment stage, consider-
ing followup capability of output load, and improving standard earthquake
- resis[ant design and thereby come forth with a Japanese light water reactor
built by independent technology.
Time availability factor =[(hr operating time)/(hr overall)J x 100 (percent)
- Facilities utilization rate =[(power produced)/(approved out~ut x total hr)]
x 100 (percent)
3. International Joint Research and Safety Demonstration Research
There are many objectives that need to be researched in the fabrication of a
nuclear fuel cycle. The uranium enrichment facility, reprocessing facility,
fast breeder reactor, and radioactive waste management all are in the form of
experimental stage facilitzes under operation or in the stage where demonstra-
tion research is being promoted. It is extremely important as an independent
road to energy assurance that this technology including the construction and -
operation will be adequately fixed in place in the form of Japanese technology.
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- In addition, forgetting the energy problem temporarily, nuclear power technology _
will be of very great value in nurturing strategic technology in Japan's tech- .
~ nology development policy because of the sheer magnitude of the project. This
will require the cooperation of scientists and technologists from the various
- areas and cooperation on the part oi universitiES, research organs, and the
- industrial world.
Since the facilities to bring the research into the demonstration stage are _
assuming large-scale proportions, the development funds for research are reach-
ing a gigantic scale. In addition, a number of joint international research
projects are being promoted because of the need to conduct the research in a
most efficient manner. There is need here for efforts to expand independent
technology in a positive manner and overcome the limitations imposed on funds; -
and researchers to accuuulate corraborative research results.
Safety demonstration research in 1 ight water reactors will not only enhance
_ thP ability of light water technology to endure actual trials but also increase
its safety and economic aspects, and its basis needs to be made more precise. _
At the same time, there is need to advance emphasis to a degree greater than in
the past on being able to respond to the insecurity with regard to nuclear power
technology which 3.s difficult to understand.
The significance of safety research on light water reactors which has been put ,
_ into practical use already makes it possible to make safety judgments on a ~
quantitative basis and to make the standards even more precise. The fact that
objective safety evaluations can be performed has great significance in that
it increases the trust the general public will have with regard to safety judg-
ments on nuclear reactors. This safety research is usually performed on actual
scale demonstration research, and it assumes the nature of a large research
project. In this manner, Japan should promote its independent xesearch to-
gether urith all out activity in safety research cooperative agreements with
the United States, France, and West Germany which were entered into in the -
past and thereby accumulate demonstrable results.
4. Sub~ects in Nuclear Power Utilization and Coordination Between Government
and Industry
There is a very large number of wide-ranging prcblems in promoting the utili-
zation of energy from nuclear power.
Even when seen from a short-term viewpoint, there are problems such as im-
provement and standardi2ation of light water reactors, developmental research
on nuclear fuel cycle facilities and technology, and their industrialization
just to establish in an independent manne~t nuclear fuel cycle technology cen-
tered on the light water reactor. At the same time, there must be efforts to
obtain the trust of the people with regard to nuclear pawer utilization through
reinforced safety demonstration research and operation of light water reactors
in which safety is the first concern and thereby accumulate actual records.
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'3
It is necessary to take advantage of the lessons of the Three Mile Island
nuclear power plant and to insure thorough safety control over the operation
of nuclear power plants and to clearly define the distribution of responsi-
bilities between the central government office at the locale of the power _
plant and the district self-governing body. There may also be need for thorough
understanding of the thinking that should take place in time of local disaster,
the provision of an appropriate system, and the clearly defined and thoroughly
understood manageu~nt accompanying evacuation of the areas under consideration.
In addition, people who have been in charge of the nuclear reactor operation
during an accident should conduct training on operational judgments and applied
construction stag~s. There also should be recheck of the operation manuals and
thorough point inspection of the equipment used daily and stress again the im-
_ portance of the basic items.
- The administration must maintain a balance over this entire wide range and man-
- age things in an appropriate manner. The pursuit of a nuclear power policy
which has psychologically complex reactions becomes possible only when there
is an administration which can be trusted. The assurance of trust with regard
to an administration for safety assurance is particularly important, and the
; capabilities of the Atomic Energy Safety Committee and the Nuclear Power Admin-
istrative Bureau have to be organically activated.
In another direction, the response from the industrial side including nuclear
power instrument makers and power companies is also important. The subjects
discussed before include many wh3.ch have to be resolved by the self-awareness
of the electric power companies and makers which are the countries' basic in-
- dustries which must bear the load of tomorrow's energy problems.
Ratio of Domestically Produced Instruments for Use in Nuclear Power Generation
Reactors
~ao - . : - . . (1) aw~csa~sxwe~ 1
~ _ .
_ ~ . .,s~ ~ - - . ~ :1
- ~.f . . i 2 PVlit(E07SKr1U , ~(IIOTiKw -
. , -
- . . _ . '=~~L~BMN~II07~lC ~ -
. ~ - ~6) ~RC~ K..~ , . i
~ ' . " . ~ BWRl~4Ti CM;IE} . . . ' i
- . _ - , ~
. -
6CR(flxlf) : " . �
!
~
0
~%$t7~($falAlE~) Il70 1975 19tY
~ Key:
(1) PWR (500,000 KW class) (5) BWR (700,000 KW class)
(2) PWR (800,~00 KW class) (6) BWR (500,000 KW class)
(3) PWR (1.1 milli~n KW class) (7) GDR (gas reactor)
- (4) BWR (l.l million KW class) (8) (year operation started)
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3-7 Expansion in Coal, LNG
_ 1. ~Expanded Use of Coal With Introduction of Imported Coal
The substitute for oil as an energy source for which there are the greatest
expectations is the utiliza~ion of coal.
The coal policy is comprised of three piZlars.
1) Sustain 20 million ton/yr production of domestic coal.
- 2) Promote coal utilization research and development directed at ~oal gasifi-
cation and liquefaction.
3) Promote development and imporL of coal for general use from overseas sources.
Japan has about a billion tons of coal which is considered retrievable economic-
ally, and this is about a SO-year supply at the present production level. On
the other hand, any increase in domestic coal production is considered difficult
because of the uncertain labor supply, the increase in mining cost due to the
increasing depth of mining operations, and the increasing differential in price
compared to imported coal. There is significance to maintaining production o�
this purely Japanese produced coal when seen from the standpoint of safe assur-
ance of Japan's energy, and the development of a policy to maintain production
hereafter is necessary.
In view of the ^.arrowness of the Japanese land and its environmental restric-
tions, there are limits to the direct combustion of coal. In addition, coal
gasification and liquefaction can make use of already present facilities as a
result of which there are some great expectations in this area. Already some
active experimentation is taking place in various countries of the world, but it
- is said that considerable time will be required to bring this technology to the
practical stage when seen from the technological and economic areas. With
this situation in mind, the development and import of general use coal from
overseas will become the main line for large-scale utilization of coal in Japan
- f or the short and medium terms.
The coal producing countries with coal exporting capabilities such as the United
States and Australia already have reinforced control over coal on the part of
the majors and others, however, there seems to be considerable opportunity left
- for developmer_t and import through capital participation. This is why related
~ industries such as power companies, coal companies, and commercial companies
are the central figures involved in the formation of development systems which
work toward long-term establishment of coal demand and supply plan and strive
to expand at an early stage development and import.
2, Conditions for Hindrance and Abetment of Expansion in Demand for Imported
Coal
A large number of obstructions have to be overcome because of the increase in
- demand for coal that is coming. The construction of coal-fired power plants
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- will be necessary to consume the large-scale introduction of coal, but the
present picture is that 16 power plants producing 4.4 mi~lion KW are operating
on 7.7 million tons of coal. In addition, there are 8 power plants presently
under construction or in the planning stage designed to produce 10.7 million KW
fr.om a consumption of 25 million tons of coal.
~ An important factor that is delaying coal utilization is probably the uncertain
na.ture of the future price of oil and coal. At the same time, new installations
of coal-fired thermal power plants to be operated by import coal will have to
be sited quite a distance from the consumer area because of environmental and
port limitations. If this distance exceeds 200 km, the transmission costs will
rise to the point that this form of power will be unable to compete with oil-
fired thermal power plants, and this will become a major limitation to siting
a power plant away from a densely populated area. A coal center concept has
great effect in enabling relief from the docking conditions which make large
type ships difficult to accommodate and involving the use of small demand units.
It is further conceivable that there could be a conversion from oil to coal by
industry in general, but when large oil consuming industries using 100,000 K1
or more oil per year are considered, the list is limited to the 4 industries
comprised of cement, steel, paper and pulp, and chemicals which account for
about 60 sites. In addition, the cement plants are the only places where this
conversion can be made in existing facilities.
Along with this economic problem, the solution of problems outside the realm of
- economics and which are unique *_o coal is also another major obstacle. The
first is the problem of disposing of the ash left by combustion. Coal on the
average contains 15 percent ash, and the bulk of this ash is disposed of through
- in-sea interment. For this purpose there must eventually be a sea area twice
the area of the power plant to accept this ash. Regulations on disposal at sea
are becoming more stringent, and this cannot help but become one of the limiting
factors in the future. The second is the dirty image assigned to coal. Even
though environmental standards can be satisfied through the application of de-
sulfurization, denitrification, and electrostatic dust removing units to the
smoke, the dirty image which people hold with regard to coal has very great
- possibility of becoming a major impediment to the siting of coal-fired power
plants.
3. LNG Expansion Which Requires Concentration of Demand Scale
There are great hopes for the introduction of LNG which is a clean fuel of high
thermal efficiency. The problem with regard to large-scale introduction of LNG
eventually resolves itself to the economic aspects. A tremendous capital in-
vestment is required to provide ths liquefaction facilities, tankers, ann
storage facilities to take this product from the develop~ent stage to the con-
suming end. In the particular case of Japan which has no pipeline network, the
problem focuses on the point whether there will be sufficient demand around the
introduction sites to warrant its import. According to calculations made in
various projects of the past, an annual import of the order of 3 million tons
is projected.
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As ~ result, the LNG project considers its use principally to operate thermal
power plants because of the volume limitati.ons followed by use in urban gas
lines. Once overdensely populated areas have been converted to LNG and new
LNG burning power plants have been built, the introduction into the sparsely
populated areas with little inducement factors becomes a problem, and LNG
expansion may face a new polarization front. In order to counter such situa-
tions, large-scale single liquefaction bases and small-scale multiple unit
loading bases could be combined to retain economic operation up to the lique-
faction stage. At the same time, the question whether LNG demand can be
- created in areas other than thermal power plants on a long-tezm basis ~sill
become an important problem in maintaining the minimum economical scale of use.
The use of city gas by large industrial users paying special rates is one such
example. Consequently, the construction of nipelines to enable use by industry
in general may be necessary in order for future expansion to take place.
- Research on methanol production is being promoted with the hope that natural
gas can be handled in a manner similar to oil. The use of natural gas will be
greatly stimulated if this technology can be perfected. In addition, LPG
(liquefied petroleum gas) which is produced alongside petroleum and which pres-
ently is not utilized should be exploited as much as possible to fire power I
plants. ~
4. "Determination" Required for Introduction of Coal, LNG ~
While the energy substitutes for oil may suffer at the present time in their
economic features compared to oil, their introduction should be clearly assig~:~d
on volume, time, and geographic aspects within the energy policy. There may be
need to accept the economic demerit as the cost for safeguarding dependence on
unreliable oil. To be sure, such determination will remove future indecisive
elements, and the net effect will be to enhance economics and bring advances in
technology as well. The combination of the following means may be necessary to
transfer such determination to reality, and the government's role in such a
situation is large.
1) Direct Regulations
By narrowing the range of choice by consumers on the type of energy desired,
the utilization of alternate energy can be planned. The manner of setting the
base of these regulations may be a problem, and there is need for detailed
study on the preparatiun time for technological and economical feasibility,
demonstration plant conversion, and new construction related to the use of
fuPl other than oil for each fuel consuming facility. Where thermal power
generation is concerned, IEA has banned further use of oil except for those
power plants already in the planning stage. There may also be need in the
future to restrict the use of oil to a fixed number of industries other than
power plants.
. 2) Indirect Regulations
The price competitive strength of substitute energy should be strengthened
through subsidies and there is need to study means to promote fuel conversion.
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,
3) Subsidies To Promote Introduction
- Considerable investment must be made for production at the or3.ginal site,
transport, transport to Japan, storage, and loading in order to promote con-
_ versions to subatitute energy sources. These investments are saddled with
risks evolving from the changes in market conditions, and a portion of this
risk sh ould be borne by the public and thereby add incentive to private invest-
ment.
Projected Japan's Coal Import and Majo�r Countries' Exports
ins ~xs� � ~ i~o ~~~poo
~ ~ H ' x~-~rs~n
ri ~ : . i " =3-~- . .
. . , '
) . . � . ~ ~Tt~,h,
m ' i . . . ' }Eb ti~.~s'-Y's,~`.,-' � .
' I ~ ~ z
~i.
,.~u~an.ifit: �
SO . . "'"/.yy .
4 ` � �~Lw tl~
;_~1~f`~_' :~it'~ ~:.1~ac... ~.y .
0 .
^ . l. :K,ri.,R-,o� . .
SO K:�~^r ~ c
` A ~:N'0,,~w�L
i:~~~y ~''FLx}~~.u/.
~ ~
~ I~.~. ( . 4. _
j
~~~~~~y~ .
M~~�
. ' ~ ~ R
~�r~~+ y
I . . . I ~8*~~~
� ' 2~
1l7i 1ltS
( 9 ~ (~fi) iEA~-f48l-2000~F!'L`o)~~~
Key:
(1) (million tons) (6) United States
(2) export (7) Canada
(3) import (8) Japan
(4) Australia (9) ~Source) IEA "Projected
(5) New Zealand Picture of General Use Coal
~ Up to 2000"
3-8 Response to the Electric Power Crisis
l. Characteristics of Electricity as Secondary Energy
Electricity is secondary energy generated from resources such as water power,
oil, or uranium (primary energy) and it accounts for about 30 percent of the
total energy demand in Japan. It is a readily usable clean energy which is
e:cploited in many ways such as for illumination, power source, and various
~ contro 1 applications, and its use is increasing by the year. Electricity is
already an essential of living and an artery in industrial operations. It is
known to be the central nervous system of the information oriented society,
and its roles are too numerous to mention.
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Now, what should happen when there is a large power outage? Household appli-
ances such as televisions and refrigerators will no longer be usable, water
and gas lines will no longer function, and household activities will be dis-
rupted to no end. At the same time, the railroads will cease to function,
signals and ATS will not operate, traffic will be thrown into confusion, and
hospitals will be unable to conduct surgery thereby endangering peoples`
lives. Computer operation will stop throwing the banking business into con-
- fusion, and mass co~unication, telephone, and radio cannot be used to result
in information uneasiness. In addition, production paralysis in the various
plants w?11 result in product shortages, and severe roadblocks against produc-
tion and ~,roduction capacity will appear everywhere. In this present society
whici~ is in a state of complex mutual dependency relationships the social con-
fusion and the damage arising thereof as the result of power outage will prob-
ably be of a scale far beyond anything our experiences have taught us.
Many of the arguments which were used in dealing with the interruption of pri-
- ~ary energy supply such as of oil are used when treating an energy crisis. On
the other hand, not only must we consider the problem of power supply just as in
the loss of fuel such as oil, there is need to consider probl.ems unique to a
power supply system. The major power outage which occurred in New York did
not result from an interrup~ion to the primary energy supply.
Electricity urlike oil cannot be stored, and it cannot be ims~orted from abroad.
It has the property of immediate con:>umption upon generation: Unless this
_ property is duly considered in the countermeasures which are=devised, an unpre-
dicted and sudden large power outage may be calamitous.
2. Factors Causing Major Power Outages -
The following three factors are thou~tht to be ma;~r causes oi' large power out-
i
ages: �
- 1) Difficulty in obtaining fuel for power plants: ~
- About 70 percent of the present day power plants are thermal, and more than 90
percent of these thermal plants use oil and LNG. There is no~;need here to re-
iterate what effect the inability to obtain this type of fuel ~aill have.
2) Reduction in supply capability due to siting delay of power plants and
transmission facilities: : ~
According to the JFY 1979 power facilities plan, the reserve supply rate of
electric power is expected to be 6.5 percent (7.8 million KW) i.n JFY 1983,
3.4 percer~~ ~4.38 million KW) in JFY 1984, and 0.2 percent (330,000 KW) in
JFY 1985 indicating that this reserve rate is being hard pressed by the demand.
These figures show that there will be at least some margin up to 1985, and
there wi11 most likely be no shostage. On the other hand, when compared to
the concept that states the need for at least 8 percent reserve rate to
account for inaccuracies in the predicted rate or unexpected stoppages, we
- are already in a crisis. During the peak of air conditioner use in summer,
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a change in air temperatur~ of 1�C will entail a change in 2.60 million KW -
use. A change in but 3�C will reduce the reserve supply rate for 1983 to
zeeo. In addition, there can be considerable limitation on the operation of
power plants operating close to urban centers due to photochemical smog forma- -
tion. If for some reason a power plant being planned cannot be started because _
of siting problems such that partial delay has to be taken into consideration,
the reserve supply rates up to 1985 will be simply calculated values.
The most important factor to apply against major power outages is how to re-
solve this siting delay problem.
_ 3) Accidents involving large-scale power plants, transmission, and transformer
facilities:
Because renovation of facilities, looping oi supply routes, and cooperation `
- between power campanies are well advanced in Japan, it is thought that the
large-scale power outage of the type experienced in New York will occur with -
comparatively less probability. On the other hand, should there be insufficient
reserve supply rate and a situation of prolonged continuous operation, there is
a good possibility that a minor incident can kick off a major outage.
3. Efforts To Conserve Electric Power
= The efficient use at the production and consumption ends.of power or, in other
words, conservation of electric power will become very important to the power -
demand and supply situation of the future. First of all, development of power
conserving appliances, simplification of production processes, reduction of
loss rate, and avoidance of wasteful operation of cbolers and illumination should
be practiced to promote rational use and economy. In another direction, alumi-
num refineries, electric furnaces, paper and pulp industries and chemical in-
dustries which are large power consuming industries must make conversions in -
production methods. In this manner, power conservation must be practiced on a
_ wide-ranging basis involving the entire national economy. These large power `
consuming industries may be studying international branch businesses or siting
- in foreign countries. The establishment of policies and guidance along the lines
of conversion and higher level development of industrial structures is desirable
from the standpoint of power conse~vat~~n.
- The next important item is to mini.mize the use of electricity as a thermal
source. The conversion efficiency from primary energy such as oil is less
than 40 percent, and there are further losses of a little less than 10 percent
as power is sent from the power ~,~ant to the consumer, and this includes trans-
mission losses, distributi:,n losses, and transformer losses. As a result, the
use of electricity as a thermal source will consume more than three times the
energy compared to energy supplied by primary energy such as oil. Heating and
cooling along with hot water should depend on oil, waste heat utilization, or
solar heat wherever possible. In order to encourage such practices, a tax
policy which gives incentive to the use of other thermal sources beside elec-
tricity should be provided.
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The one item on power conservation which should not be forgotten is the problem
of peak demand. When reviewed over the entire year, the peak demand comes in
August. The reserve supply rate and the average generation cost reatcsitnified
- by this peak demand. As a result, reduction in peak demand has g g
cance on future power supply and demand.
Efforts to save on power by jacking up cooling temperature, taking major vaca-
tion breaks during summer, promoting power use late at night, and introducing
seasonal rates may be necessary to reduce peak demand.
4. Diversification of Power Sources and Siting Promotion
Assuming that power source development afte~ionYwi184beaas ifytheresislnocrea
by the Power Development Council, the situa ,
serve supply rate of electr~ power� Power supply is a tightrope affair, and
only a slight accident or c~ange in demand has tha possibility of causing a
major outage.
It is an urgent situation that fuel sources be diversif ied and construction of
power plants be promoted in order to resolve thi~sffoverseasacoal in thermaler
supply front. Nuclear power and direct burning I
power plants are thought to be the mainstays which will provide the r�e~'~d
energy over"the intermediate period. i
The IEA has prohibited further construction of oil fired thermal power plants
as a basic rule and the Three Mile Island incident has made the already diffi-
cult siting problem even more difficult, and the clamor for early introduction
of coal-fired plants is increasing. On the other hand, as was discussed before,
coal-fired thermal plants are faced with a number of problems which need to be
resolved such as the environmental problem, and it will be 10 years before they
will become operative even though construction is started immediately; as a re-
sult of which it will not resolve the present situation. over the~nexthl0 nly
choice left open to make up for this lack of power supply
years is to promote expansion of those power plants for which the power com-
_ panies already have made siting applications and which are mainly light water
reactor type power plants.
It goes without amplification that each power company should put every effort
into environmental and safety policies while striving to win over the iocal
people through proper PR and explanations in order to promote siting. What
is most important of all is for the government to come forth with a clearly
defined posture promoting power plant siting.
- The various complicated negotiations for siting power plants should be placed
in the framework of the functions of various ministries and agencies to process
- and simplify. The roles and responsibilities of the country and local self -
governing units should be clearly defined, and cooperation should be rein-
forced. In addition, the period for the siting transfu~ thedenvironmenteandnded
and warm waste water standards should be set up to p
safety standards to an even higher level. -
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The lead time for power source development is lengthy, and the response to a
- power crisis will be a race against time.
3-9 Technology Development and Use Popularization of New Energy
1. Signif3cance and Effect of New Energy Technology Development
The development of new energy technology is a w~orldwide problem. The fact
that not only the oil importing countries but the oil producing countriPS such
as Saudi Arabia are conducting research on solar heat utilization attests to
the nature of the problem.
Among the new energy sources on which research has been initiated are those
which can be expected to be included in large-scale energy supply systems
(such as coal liquefaction) and those which will fill the needs of special
areas (such as home solar energy utilization, wind power). At the same time,
utilization technology of new energy includes those whose development will be
promoted over a long term as an energy source after oil and those which can be
applied as a supplement to present oil supply inadequacies, and developmer~t i^
line with the times is necessary.
Japan which is a major importer of energy sources and a large consumer country
as well has a strategic significance whose importance other countries cannot
even conceive of as to the pursuit of this type of research. The major point
is the strengthening of the supply structure to assure itself of an independent
energy supply source.
In the second place, the submission of material to be used to reaolve ~roblems
urgent in nature worldwide is the only road by which a resources-poor country
such as Japan can contribute to the world's energy supply. ~
The third point is that should we neglect our efforts at development, we will
be taken over completely in research results by other countries, and Japan will
- be in a disadvantageous position not only in the matter of resources but in
utilization technolog3~ as well.
In fourth place is the spreading effect and industry stimulating effect of
technology development. New energy technology must be developed in a systema-
tic manner from basic research through operational research and through the
commercialization stage after its economics are polished up, and various appli- "
cation technologies can be developed in this process which can end up in some
new Japanese technology tomorrow.
Even though any large-scale results will not be expected for a while, it is
important that these intents are fully recognized and strength be directed ~
- presently.
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2. Time and Volume of New Energy Development
Research and development on new energy is comparatively well known through
terms such as the Sunshine Plan or Solar House. As far as new energy is con-
cerned, the correlation between the time when it will become practical and
the quantity of energy which can be obtained sinould be recognized. _
Among the subjects which are being researched as new energy sources include
some technology or utilization methods (such as solar energy heating and
cooling) which are already in the practicalization stage, some in the basic
technology stage (hydrogen energy), some which a~e being considered for re-
search, and utilization method for some special use (biomass).
There is technology which can provide an energy source f~r helping to insti-
tute an oil economy in the near future, technology for which research must be
continued at the present time and which will be targeted to become practical
during the disengagement from the oi]_ age a few dozen years ahead, technology
which can replace oil and which can serve as a f~untain of energy supply, and _
technology with the property of responding to local demands, but these distinc-
tions are generally not correctly known.
~ctually there are some who argue that utilization of solar energy will enable ~
i
fulfilling many of our electric power needs in the near future and some who ~
claim photosynthesis can be utilized to produce alcohol from plant products
- which can then be used for household heating and cooling.
Development of new energy technology is a grand plan, and accurate information
dissemination on the technology developed is desired to enable its smooth
advance.
In addition, the manner in which the step to practicalization of new energy
utilization will be taken will be a~roblem. New energy has to be handled on
a commercial base if it is to become practical. No matter how this is done,
~ the question of wt~ether it will find popular acceptance will remain. While
there will be some dependence on the movements in the price of oil, an informa-
tion network must be set up with regard to policy to aid industrialization and
on methods to utilize and obtain new technology by the eventual consumers. At
the same time, a uCilization equipment supply system and consultation system
needs to be studied. -
3. Promoting Development of Energy Which Can Be Introduced by 1990
It will be emphasized here the need for a portion of the new energy sources to
make its appearance as response to the oil supply instability situation. There
is no doubt that nuclear fusion, large-scale solar thermal power generation,
and power generation utilizing gasified coal which will be central energy
sources are important along with the development and spread in use of small
energy sources such as solar thermal air conditioning. On the other hand, when
the most recent world's energy situation~is considered, there is need to look
into those sources which can be developed to the practical stage in a short.
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time and with promise of volume great enough to supplement the lack of oil
and upgrade their priorities while promoting practicalization research so
that they can be incorporated into the supply system as oil substitutes at
an early date.
In the provi.sional long-term energy d::~oand and supply predictions (Advisory
Committee for~Energy, 1979) it is expected that about 5 percent of Japan's
total energy supply in 1990 will be from energy from the Sunshine Plan sources
such as solar, new type geotheimal, and coal gasificatian-liquefaction sources.
It is needless to say that considerable effort will be required for this plan
to ~terialize.
Technology which may answer this expectation may be represented by the solar
- battery, coal liquefaction, and deep geothermal power generation. The research -
subjects related to these technologies are not basic technology problems but
problems related to volume production, scaleup, and site surveys. By.the con-
centrated and selective investment of funds and know-how, it may be possible to
come forth with a considerable energy supply at an early stage.
There will be a structuraZ tightening in the oil supply and demand situation
- along about 1990. At this time the situation that these energy sources have
come to contribute real power as an oil substitute will be extremely important
to the energy strategy which follows.
A moving up in the research plan is necessary to this end, but this is not all.
There will be need for fiscal policies for the practicalization stage, manage-
ment of the utilization and popularization end, and response to problems which
will have to be resolved in a stage further in the future.
4. Responsibility for Development Funds and Development Posture 4
Long lead time and vast sums in investment are required before new energy will
materialize in a practical manner. Research results often are proportional to
the amount of effort on the part of the research staff. Excluding the nuclear
energy portion, the funds invested in new energy research in 1978 totaled about
10 billion yen taking both government and private sources into account. This
was but one-ninth that spent in the United States.
As the scale of the experimental facilities becomes larger, the research costs
increase ~in exponential manner. In addition, there is need to consider future
subsidies for industrialization, demonstrations to popularize the subject, and
information transmittal. The Advisory Committee for Energy estimates that the
research and development funds required for the 1975-1985 period will total
740 billion yen. There will also be need for large sums for utilization and
popularization in addition to the above, and 640 billion yen will be required
just for solar energy.
There is need for thoughts on a nationwide basis on fiscal sources plans to
fund these requests including study of the tax structure to encourage new energy
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development. Not only the natian's responsibility but the risk responsibility _
to industry accompanying new technology development must be of levels which can
be borne by Japan's economic strength or the developments cannot continue.
4ssuming that Japan's economic strength for some time will be cultured b'y oil,
it m~y be said that new energy wi11 be born from oil.
Joint research on an international level is under way in order to promote
research efficiently while taking responsibility for vast funds. Japan must
contribute to tihe solution of global problems and develop pathways to these solu-
tions including technology cooperation with the oil producing countries and
developing coun tries. A truly internationa3. research which mutually exchanges
technology and personnel in an active manner is desirable to this end.
~ The development of a primary energy source for the next century to replace the -
fossil fuels which taill be depleted in our lifetime will be the crowning achieve-
ment of a worldwide stature.
Establish Oil Assurance System Suitable for the Structural Insufficiency
The world's oil situation has come to the stage in which the ~reedmto the oiles
have to respond with willfully directed cooperation. Japan ag
import framework set up at the Tokyo summit. On the other hand, this import
framework was not according to the way we would have wanted it, and oil will
not be readily available. In another dius~tasnbeforen atsleasteforda while.
for more than 50 percent of its energy j ~
Even though we work hard at energy conservation and expansion of alternate
energy supplies, no suitable economic growth will be attained unless the neces-
sary oil i.s assured.
A reawareness of the roles of the government and private sector under the sup-
ply system is necessary to assure a stable supply of oil. The main pillar in
this direction will be the oil industry to the bitter end. Cooperation with
commercial companies should be developed to reinforcelovWhichsaretallthighly -
expand DD crude oil, and strive f or stability in supp Y ort these
desirable. At the same time, the role of the government to supp
activities of the private sector assumes greater importance than before. _
_ Starting with improved diplomatic relations with the I''~~eementssrelatedrtosthell
out promotion of economic cooperation and long-teru? ag resent time.
oil import framework become even more important at the p
The Hastening En ergy Crisis, Fulf illment of Control Countermeasures
The structural energy crisi.s proceeds in the form of short-term crises such as
demand and supply stringency and escalating prices. Japan which is in a fra-
gile resources position has the urgent duty of setting up crisis control coun- -
termeasures. There were some separate crisisrice controluwhichuweresputlintock-
piling, consumption control, rationing, and p _
effect after the first oil crisis, and these measures were part of the founda-
tion by which confusion was avoided in this present oil crisis.
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Now should the crisis become even more critical, one wonders whether mutual
- relationships between accurate grasp of the situation and specific application
of the individual measures, in other words, the crisis control system, can be
exploited sufficiently. Certainly, there are some doubts at the present time,
_ It is only after the reinforcement of certain items such as oil stockpiling
and various controls under a state of emergency are established and operated
as a system that composed actions on the part of the people are possible.
This is an important measure for indegendently reinforcing the weak resources
position of this country.
Expansion of Alternate Energy Supply Headed by Nuclear Energy
_ The degree of increase in the volume of alternate energy to supplement the
energy demand under the limitations imposed on the oil supply is large. This
is why ther2 is need to look to the utilization of all for~s of energy from
- here on, and nuclear energy, coal, and LNG will probably be the th.ree main
pillars when the scale of.the supply and practic~lity are considered. When
judged from a long term basis, LNG has a resources limitation similar to oil
while coal is faced with limits in expansion if it is to be burned directly.
_ While it is hoped that coal gasification and liquefaction will become reali-
ties in this present century, there is need to consider determined reliance on
nuclear power utilization calling on the light water reacto rs, fast breeder re-
actor, and eventually nuclear fusion. Nuclear energy is ~beset with problems
such as safety and waste disposal, but these problems probably can be solved
= eventually through development in the technology and accumulation of operating
- experience.
The shift from oil to other energy sources will not proceed unless it is en-
trusted to the market mechanism. Starting with management which will dispel
= all insecurity on the economic aspects at the initial stage of practicaliza-
_ tion, the government should provide positive policies for promoting substi-
tute energy and display strong determination toward'practicalization.
Enthusiasm Toward Becoming the Leading Energy Conserving Country
Japan's unique conditions such as resource poor status, very limited l,and area,
= and overly dense population will not change over the long run. Such being the
case, Japan must lead the world in planning real energy conservation and pro-
ceed toward the 21st century seeking to become a resources and energy conser-
vation type society.
If this is to be done, energy conservation efforts must not stop at the emer-
gency avoiding and short-term approaches which are now being taken, but devel-
opment of energy utilization technology with high efficiency over the long ~
term, development of a higher level industrial structure, and change in living
patterns should be structurally enfolded into the economic society.
Japan's industry has prospered in applied technology, and it has adequate power
to develop greater energy cfficiency. Many great things are expected of indus-
try's ability to come forth with original ideas.
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It will be diff icult to quickly turn around tl~e present society which has been
nurtured on the increasing rate of energy use. On the other hand, a transition
= to an energy conserving type society is unavoidable. Japan needs to assume the
determination of taking a leading role in this effort as it enters the 21st
century.
Indispensable Exploitation of Private Activities and Governmental Determination _
As long as economic strength and manpower are finite, the selection of various
policies and the order by which these policies are imple~ented are indispens-
able to the development of an effective energy policy. The exploitation of this
leadership is certainly the government's role, and determination with courage
can be the result.
In another direction, the role of industry particularly the energy related in-
dustries is also large. The desire and activity of industry must be adequately
exploited in matters such as assurance of oil, introduction of substitute ener- -
gy, and technological development for the future. At the same time, individuals,
households, and districts should activate their originality and make positive
contributions to the effective utilization of energy and resources. In addi-
tion, they must assume the economic burden and cooperate with sitings to assure
energy for the present and future and thereby shoulder their share of the social -
- cost. -
a The energy policy requires strict awareness of the present situation and respon-
sib.le actions on the part of the individual countryman. In this sense, the
people and the local governing bodies should serve as the .executors of the
policy and also serve as instructors.
Race With Time
~ The limit to increased production of oil which sustained the alarming economic
growth of the latter half of the 20th century will surely become real in the
near future. The problem of whether we and the next generation can greet a
21st century which fulfills the expectations will depend on how well we are
able to achieve the targeted energy policies in the meantime. Society's re-
sponse to the materialization af energy policies requires a very long lead
time way beyond comprehension. We are presently faced with a race against time. -
The leading industrial countries which consumed fintte oil resources for the
- development of a limited population must stand in the forefront and fi.ght this
- battle. Among these countries, Japan which has no resources at home and which
has sustained its industrial systen through import of resources from other
countries has a responsibility greater than the other countries.
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Demand Predictions
- Tokyo NIRA REPORT: MIRAI NO SENTAKU ENERUGI 0 KANGAERU in Japanese Sep 79
pp 53-55
[Text~ Provisional Predictions of Long-Term Energy Demand ?nd Supply
R. ~
y - ?n
~~~~~1*"~ _ ~'i" t0 00 l~ co t7 v1 t~ ~D Q~ ~ ~
~ ~ .p .ti V' 43 Oii3~[7~1~~xRo ;
.
_ ~
- !
, ;
o ` ~ tao%
3
- i~) ~f~~i~t~i~l:~]Is~~Jfi~ct~r~ic~o~"t,
~ (Fi~ii/c-~lf~~~7o~~1~#ALZ, m~~fi~~i.:li
~iS#~7~)~,1>~tt~~~t,~T~3;
Figure 10. Example of Power Conservation by RPM Control
(Key)
(1) case of dampe r control (fixed rpm) (6) Note: When rpm control is exer- _
(2) fraction of power reduction cised by varying flow rate, the
(3) case of rpm c ontrol power supplied can be reduced by
(4) flow rate the shaded seczion in the figure
(5) power compared to the case of camper
controZ
The types in use include those which control the rpm of the motor itself and
those which control the rpm of the motor shaft through a fluid joint (broad
sense: fluid joint and fluid torque converter). _
(3) Number 3 powe r load regulating device -
The unit under consideration here au~tomatically controls the illumination in
a factory or a bus iness establ3shment according to a preset schedule to con-
form to the working conditions and thereby reduce.~he power used. It is some-
times called illumination scheduling device.
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_ Take the example of a small retai:t store. Lighting is adjusted for the prepara- -
tory work prior to opening the store, th~ varying situations according to the
number of customers in the store, precise calculations pertod, and inventory
check after store closing according to necessity and locality and thereby
effect substantial decrease in iliuminetion power.
Methods of controlling degree of illumination include those given in
and (O) below.
Method in which distribution lines are systematically deployed before- _
hand to provide the necessary illumination to the necessary places (see Figure
11). _
. 9~srs~~s~ (2)
�I~i~3) Q ~~A$iF~ (9~37) HF 300
us~n~e23a~~t~,~~rr) (10)
~ 12 ~~~~"7Q % 7A ~ 11 FLR I IOX2
- 50%~i
~~1~ � ~ B '
' C FLR I 10 X I
_ ~ Z F 2 F t17~! . D FLR 40 X I
51~9H ~+i~~~ ( -
"~Y~~1~ 112 . E r
30%~i~'J ~ F FLR i IOx2
2096i~4T
. ~Q �
- ~ I 'F IFf1~j ~~~~}7q�~rjH 11 FLRIIOX2
4?zIffi lMl~l;~1
~ t . -
~ J .
~ K ~
1~~ ~AC 100~ . L .
. � M FLR 40 X I
~ ~ co
o ~ '
- ~a~~x~~a ; ~ ~
Figure 11. Example of System Makeup -
Key:
(1) power supply (7) signal line
(2) external light panel (8) illumination control device
- (load control device) (9) lights (external lights)
(3) 2F panel (10) (lit between 8-23 hours) -
(4) 2F load control device (11) light block
(5) IF panel (12) percent lit
(6) 1F load (control panel
103
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~ (C ) No systematic distribution lines are installed but signals from a light- _
_ ing panel a re �ollowed to turn off or adjust the illuminatian load according to _
some fixed co^~litions.
2.8 Marine Diesel Eng ine -
The item under consideration here is a diesel engine whose consumption rate
is 155 grams per horsepower per hour or less. In addition, there are the
limitations according to application and to container vessels of more than a
preset scale.
3. Certification System Such as Specifications for Energy Conservation Devices _
In order that the special compensation system for energy conservation devices '
be truly effective, necessary information relative to the energy conservation _
unit in question should be made available to the party which has installed the
uni.t in his workplace (hereafter called "user") and the certi_fication of a
th ird party that said unit conforms to the tax system.
Following this viewpoint, an energy conservation center (incorporated) and ~
industrial groups tied in with the energy conservation facilities of the vari- ~
ous ministries have become the n~icleus for setting up certification systems i
for specif ications associated with energy conservation facilities.
~ By attaching the certification certificate issued by this system to the appli-
ca tion for special tax status, the tax office will have a useful reference,
and this system is very advantageous to the user. .
- The inclusion of this certification is not required by law.
A schedule of certifying corporations of newly added equipment is given in
Table 2.
Biomass Energy
Tokyo TSUSAN JANARU in Japanese May 80 pp 120-124
~
[Article by Hideo Otaka, chief of the Chemistry Products Division, Basic
Industries Bureau: "Development of Biomass Energy"]
[Excerpts] Introduction
The present world economy is controlled by the energy supply structure centered
on oil. The most recent changes in the international oil situation have
he ightened the possibility that a worldwide oil shortage may be in the offing
by the later 1990's. The "Provisional Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand Per-
_ sp ective" drafted last August by ~he Advisory Committee for Energy has posi-
tioned the roles for various oil energy substi tutes, and alcohol w~ich is a
biomass energy has ~een classed under the heading of "new fuel oil." A1.though
it s share of the e�Jerall energy supply in Japan is but a few percent, it will
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probahly play an important gosition in closing the energy gap in the demand -
and supply area for the present light and medium oil products (gasoline, lamp
oil, light oil, etc) whose demand is expected to increa se in the future. -
Dr Calvin a recipient of the Nobel prize in chemistry (famous for the Calvin
cycle in photosynthesis) stated in 1974, "We must consider from here the uti13.-
zation of energy from plants which is a renewable energy in place of fossil
energy." In September 1976 he stated further, "We will extract components
similar to oil from the Euphorbia family including such plants as Asasango
[phonetic] and Holt grass, and an acre production of 10-15 barrels/yr at a
cost of 3-10 dollars a barrel can be realized according to our estimates."
Brazil in 1975 announced its "national alcohol plan" in which alcohol is to
be produced from sugarcane and sweet potato to be used as automobile fuel and
chemical industry raw material.
In this manner, tYie curtain has been raised for a new age in which energy is ~
to be directly taken from plants in what may be termed as energy renaissance.
- Up to the 19th century, man obtained more than 90 percent of his energy from
wood and wood materials. Back in the 1935 era, Japan was producing consider-
able quantity of fuel alcohol.
Now, just what is biomass? Looking at Figure 1[not reproduced], academically
speaking, "biomass is the flora in the natural world (production man)--animals
(consumer)--microorganism (analyst)--inorganic material which are all involved _
_ in the change in cycles as is." Put in simpler terms, it refers to the total
quantity of flora and fauna. It is estimated that there are presently 2
trillion tons of biomass on this earth (most of it is plants). If this bio-
mass were effectively converted and utilized, a large volume of clean and
renewable energy becomes available. Furthermore, it is also useful as a source
- of chemical raw materials. In this manner, research and development on tech-
nology to convert and utilize biomass is one of the big hopes in the oil alter- �
nate energy picture.
Such being the case, what specific plans az~e there along this line? _
a Methods of Utilizing Biomass
Alcohol Fermentation
Man has been producing spirits (alcohol) from cereals and potato tubers since
time immemorial, and this alcohol fermentation technology applied to various
plant materials is the pathway envisioned. At the present time, the greatest
production in the world is from sugarcane in Brazil, and this is followed by
the production from corn in the United States. These are all mixed wi~h gaso-
line to be used as automobile fuel (gasohol) while a p ortion is used as raw
material for the chemical industry in the production of ethylene and similar
products.
Another type of alcohol is produced from cellulose (plant fiber) which is a
main component of plants. This is something we have in great volume even in
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Japan because it is incorporated in forest material, urban trash, rice straw,
and such agricultural waste products. Even production from such presently
unused sources is expected to yield 9 million kiloliters when convQrted to
alcohol (see Table 1), and adding forest products to the above gives a very
large figure. Alcohol production from this cellulose is presently in the de-
velopment stage, and it is being taken up as a Ministry of International In-
dustry and Trade project as will be discussed later.
Table 1. Estimated Quantity of Unutilized Biomass and the Potential Alcohol
Production From This Source
Possible
Item Fiber alcohol
Number Fiber quantity Alcohol production
(10,000 fraction (10,000 conversion (10,000
TyPe t/Yr) t/yr) rate K1/Y~)
Rice straw 1,259 30 378 55 208
Rice hull 252 40 101 55 56
Other agricultural wastes 1,280 20 256 55 128 ~
Forest wastes 2,580 25 645 50 322
Urban trash 2,300 18 414 50 207 -
_ Total 7,671 1,794 921
_ Methane Fermentation
This technology involves the fermentation of organic wastes such as livestock
waste, seaweed, and urban and industrial wastes to produce methane which is
then used to generate electric power or put to household use. At the present
time, there is a plant considered to hold considerable promise being developed
in the United States which is giant kelp (macrocysis) 60 meters in length,
20-25 kilograms in weight, and having a growth rate of 50 centimeters per day.
This kelp is being cultivated, dried, and fermented on a large scale at the
experimental farm of the Integrated Societies Corp., General Electric Corp.
located at the San Diego Naval Laboratory. It is estimated that 1,000-6,000
tons/day of kelp can be harvested from a 1G0 square mile sea area and energy
can be recovered at a cost of 14-15 dollars per million Btu methane (1 Btu =
0.25 kcal). The'possibility of using Makombu [a type of seaweed] is being
- considered in Japan.
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~ Oil Forming Plants
This is a plan to directly extract oil of the same type hydrocarbons as petrol-
eum contained in eucalyptus, blue coral tree (literal) , or Holt [phonetic]
- gr.ass. It will be used as a gasoline substitute and chemical raw material.
Professor Sa kuzo Taketa of Mie University reported last year at a scientific
_ meeting in the Uni.ted States on some good results obtained on gasoline eng:tne
tests using fuel produced from the eucalyptus plant, and the superiority of
this fuel has sud~lenly become the center of attention. In F'ebruary of this
year, the Suzuki Automobile Company conducted actual running tests of a
eucalyptus-f ueled aut~~obile and regorted the same performance as that of a
_ regular gasoline engine but with exhaust gas production 1/10 to 1/5 that of
gasoline. Now, what yields and costs are associated with this source of
energy?
The eucalyp tus leaf contains about 4 percent volatile oils, and roughly 25
kilograms of leaf is required to produce one liter of oil. If it were possi-
ble to apply a simple m~thod of separation such as steam distillation, a produc-
tion cost of abo ut 100 yen/liter is thought possible. This plant is presently
~ being cultivated in large scale in Brazil and Australia for pulp because of
its rapid growth, and the cultivation technology has been established. What is
left is the development of a comprehensive utilization system of eucalyptus.
Where Holt grass is concerned, large-scale experimental plantings are under
way under the direction of the aforementioned Dr Calvin. The Sekisui
Kaseihin Ko gyo (Co) has a plot of about 6,000 blue coral trees under cultiva-
- tion in Okinawa where oil extraction experiments are under way.
The big advantage of these plants is that they can be cultivated in semiarid
lands not suited for food production. Furthermore, they are fast growers. Non-
oil producing and developing countries in Africa and Southeast Asia are coming
to Japan for technological cooperation. These countries are in a state of
ravaged economy as the result of the cost of oil, and this may be a very
significant advance once the economic cooperation is established.
The Ministry of International Industry and Trade's budget for biomass related
- developments is shown in Table 2. The following are the principal
items.
- Establishment of a Biomass Liaison Committee
A biomass 1 iaison committee will be established with representatives from the
ranks of experie nced academic people and private industry t o be engaged in
information exchange and project pr omotion.
Development of Biomass Resources Product ion and Utilization Technology
Research and development period: The 7-year period starting in 1980.
107
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Overall research and development cost: about 30 million yen. The JFY 1980
budget is roughly 400 million yen. "Development of technology for cellulose
degradation and fermentation."
The purpose of this project is to develop the technology by which cellulose, _
which is an abundant raw material in Japan, is eff iciently converted into -
ethyl alcohol by the use of microorganisms and the technology for the utili-
_ zation of this product as well as to establish energy conservation technology
focused on engineering technology. The raw materials ta be tested include
~ugarcane, rice straw, and rice hull.
Contents of Technological Department
(a) Establishment of pretreatment technology (zlectron beam treatment,
physical and chemical treatment)
(b) Establishment of fermentation technology including search for decomposi-
tion and fermentation microorganisms -
(c) Establishment of waste liquid treatment technology
(d) Establishment of energy conserving distillation technology
(e) Establishment of system technology (pilot plant) _
(Development of Technology for Production of Alcohol With Fixed Yeast)
; The methods presently in use will be improved and converted to continuous -
production methods, operational equipment will be simplif ied, and energy
conservation and overall costdown will be targeted.
- Contents of Technological Development
(a) Search for fermentation organisms suited to continuous fermentatian
technology -
(b) Establishment oi yeast stabilizing conditions for long-term stability
(c) Establishment of system technology
As roughly reviewed above, the biomass utilization plan has just been initiated,
and various leads will be pursued from here on. It is thought that the develop-
ment of the following systems technology is necessary in order to utilize
_ biomass as an effective energy resource.
(1) production, recovery, an~l collection of biomass
(2) recovery and utilization of waste materials
(3) evaluation of environmental effects -
- 109 -
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. IVLI VL`L'11~1CLL~ UJL V?\LL
Should the utilization technology for biomass be developed, not only will it
be possible to plan for diversif ication of energy sources to effectively util-
ize hitherto unutiiized resources but also to promote local energy sources
- which will aid the local economy. At the same Cime, a very useful tool for
- promoting technolagical and economic coop~ration to developing countries will
be developed.
These events are in conformity with the items: (1) international contribution
- of a"large economic nation"; (2) supplement to "small country with respect to
resources"; and (3) establishment of both "acCive strength" and "elbowroom."
'Local Energy System'
Tokyo TSUSAN JANARU in Japanese Jun 80 pp 78-84
[Article by Hiroteru Kawada, chief of New Alternate Energy Department, Natural
Resources and Ensrgy Agency: "Report on Development of 'Local Energy Systeri'
and Its Practical Application"]
[ExcerptJ Based on this viewpoint, the Ministry of International Trade and
Industry placed in its JFY 1980 budget subsidies for survey projects by lo~al
- governments for development and utilization of local energy and plans to g~
into all out engagement into basic technological development.
The subject of development and ut~lizati~n surveys on local energy systems
will be discussed below.
Significance of Development and Utilization
The energy situation which pervaded this country during the recent period is
becoming more and more precipitous as the result of the impetus given by the
Iranian revolution. In light of this situation, the planning of assurance of
a stable supply of energy has become an important problem from the standpoint
of improving the people's welfare and stabilizing the economy even more than
in the past. This will entail even greater efforts in energy conservation and
movements to assure ourselves vf a stable supply of oil. There is also need
to revise the energy structure which depends so greatly on oil and actively
promote development and introduction of energy and resources to take the place
- of oil.
The "provisional long-term energy supply and demand perspective" issued by the
Demand and Supply Subgroup of the Advisory Committee for Energy in August of
last year (intermediate report) cited the need to reduce the fraction of the
primary energy contributed by imported oil from the present (JFY 1977) of
74.5 percent to about 50 percent by JFY 1990.
Nuclear energy, coal, and LNG are among the principal candidates to become oil
alternate energy, and these are expected to be supplemented by hitherto unutil-
ized forms of energy such as solar, geothermal, wind power, small and medium
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hydroelectric power, and biomass type natural energies to balance the large
volume now accounted for by oil. There is also hope that waste heat and wastes
can also be utilized. These should be exploited as much as possiLle and _
' effectively utilize~?.
On the Sysrem
Local energy system refers to an energy supply system which utilizes energy
resources close at hand and does not necessarily tie in with present energy
- supply and demand systems and is operated mainly by local companies according =
' to the local supply and demand structure and in which the supply structure is
_ tied in organically with the local situation to comprise a dispersed energy
~ demand and supply system.
Energy resources under consideration for local energy systems include: (1)
' solar, geothermal, medium and small hydroelectric power, wind power, biomass,
and sea energy type so-called natural energies; (2) trash-burning plants and
~ power plants, waste heat utilization from various sources, utilization of waste
heat and waste material from various industrial wastes including waste water; -
- and (3) cambinations or multiple uses of the above.
_ Among the energy sources cited above, there are some which are already in
practical use and some which are in the research and development stage. The
- scale of utilization is very broad starting with individual home scale then
individual industry and group scale unit application up to district level.
The volume which can be handled by these units is presently very limited, but
it is useful in supplementing the present energy supply systems. ~ _
~ Features of the System
The following three features can be offered for the local energy system. _
(1) It is a clean oil alternate energy, and its impact on the environment is
- small. Fossil energies such as oil and coal are associated with the emission
, of NOX, SO , and dust thereby necessitating pollution prevention controls.
; Since loca~ energy systems use mainly natural forms of energy, it may be said
to be an overall clean form of energy system. In fact, it utilizes energy from
; waste products and thereby serves to lighten the imFact on the environment. .
(2) It is a creative type energy. Where we had been c~nsuming finite energy
; as represented by oil, this system utilizes reusable forms of natural energy
found in a given region or waste heat and waste products energy which is pro-
duced according to the local need by a local society, and this system is
thereby cultured and propagated. As the resul.t of Chis system, a consumer who
hithertofore had been on a one-way road of energy consumption, by parti.ciuating
in the energy producing activities known as local energy system, will be shifted
from his former passive state to an active state. At the same time, there will
be a contribution to expanded volume in domestically produced energy.
i 111
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_ ~
(3) It is a community energy. As represented by the maintenance of a large
capacity electric p~wer source remotely located from the ~emand center, the
energy supply syst em of the past more often than not was one in which the
supply source and the demand area were considerably removed from each other.
In contrast, the 1 ocal energy system consists of small-scale and J.ocally
' dispersed supply system wh ich responds to the demands of the local society.
It develops and ut ilizes local energy within the local area, and it is an
energy supply syst em having strong local restorative and welfare providing -
properties.
-f Resources Characteristics and Trends in Technology Development
The resources cha racteristics of local energy, trends in technology develop-
ment, and principa 1 applications at the present time are compiled in Table 2.
Problem Areas in System Development and Utilization
With the exception of a small number of examples, local energy system devel-
opment and utiliz a tion at the present time is still far from attaining the
practical stage. The following problem areas need to be resolved if this pro-
gram is to be actively promoted from here on.
- (1) Information related problems: The public which is accustomed to using oil
in large volume a t low cost does not take too fondly to local energy except for
some small minority. Despite the presence of precious domestic energy about us,
we have inadequat e information with regard to the reseives, uses, and manner
of utilizat ion of this energy.
(2) Technology related problems: Generally speaking, local energy is low
density and unstab le energy, and considerable difficulty will be encountered
at the present time in order to provide sufficient quality and volume for
industrial use. The technological response to this situation has been focused
mainly on large-s cale technology pursuing the present scale merit principle,
and technology development directed at medium and small-scale utilization has
been delayed.
(3) Cost related problems: The cost area is very closel,y related to the tech-
nology problem. At the present time, with the exception of some geothermal
plants, the economics of local energy systems is frequently much higher than
that of present energy sources headed by oil. The reason for this situation
is the aforement i oned delay in basic research and development and technology
development as a result of which the efficiencies of energy recovery and utili-
zation are low. At the same time, demand has not developed adequately making
f.or a small market as a result of which there is as yet no standardization and
mass production of equipment. Furthermore, this is a dispersed system Grith
small scale per i tem that it becomes unavoidable that the investment at the
initial stage per unit is compsratively high (on the other hand, initial in-
vestment load is recovered in the future through the running cost while it is
actually recovered through the fixed costs alone).
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(4) System front related problems: The various supply businesses in the future -
energy policies and the various syste~ns related to technology development for
these businesses generally are based on the premise of large-scale and concen-
trated supply system such that there are many facets which are not suited to the
development and introductinn of locally dispersed type local energy. -
(5) Promotio~n main body related problems: While it is to he expected that the
local residents, industries, groups, and self-governing bodies will actively
play the role of T3in bodies in the development and utilization of local energy, �
the present situation is such that there is lack of awareness of the need, lack
of information a~d experience, and lack of establishment of the main bodies for
organization popularization and enlightenment and cooperative industrialization. -
Promotional Plan for Development and Utilization
~ In order to promote local energy development and utilization, there is need to:
(1) establish a principal body to promote development and utilization; (2) obtain
j information of local energy resources reserve and set up a development and utili-
~ zation plan based on the information; (3) promote technology development;
~ (4) promote industrialization and activate popularization and enlightenment;
_ and (S) resolve procurement of funds necessary to development and utilization,
~ and industrialization type problems have to be approached with a development
and utilization promotion plan wkeich organically ties together man, material, _
and money. These points will be elaborated in detail below. _
; Principal Body To Promote Development and Utilization
De~'elopment and utilization of local energy is designed to supply energy in a
manner suitable to the characteristics of the region using local energy re-
. sources to fulfill local energy demands, and the active participation of the
- local residents is necessary to its development. To this end the local resi-
- dents must fully appreciate.the significance of local energy development and
' utilization and independently devise the manner in which this development and
; utilization can be attained. That is to say, local energy is not a problem to =
be considered from the viewpoint of quantitative assurance of local energy but
should aid local promotion, employment, and welfare as well as improve the
living standards of the local people. Looking at the local energy development
- and utilization systems, the present picture is that, with the exception of a
small segment, the local people are not participatin~ as the main body in pro-
moting development and utilization plans on an organized basis. Consequently, -
it is thought important, for the time being at least, that the prefecture,
cities, towns, and villages which are the local self-governing bodies take the
principal roles in actively promoting development and utilization. To this
end, the local self-governing body must take hold of the energy problem as its
own problem an~i create a consensus at the self-governing body level on the
need for local energy development and utilization. .
Establishment of a Development and Utilization Plan
In setting out to promote development and utilization of local energy, the
f irst step is the grasp of the actual local energy demand situation. This
~ 113 -
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demand needs to be classified according to block or to type of application
and be studied from a systematic angle to follow monthly as well as annual
changes and thoroughly understand the energy demand structure of the region.
Only after this approach has been taken should means of fulfilling the
actual demand through the available supply be studied. As far as the supply
side is concerned, the actual picture of local energy reserves and potential
sources have to be established and accurate surveys based on what can be
recovered and used are necessary. To this end, it should not be the average `
reserves but detailed surveys which take into account energy resources
characteristies such as temperature levels., etiergy forms, daily changes,
monthly changes, and annual changes are necessary to enable site selection.
This data on both the demand side and the supply side should be the basis to
- construct the local energy development and utilization plan.
Promotion of Technology Development and Industrialization
- As stated before, a local energy system is not on a level with existing energy
supply systems both from the technology and cost viewpoints as a result of _
which it is not yet sufficiently reliable to assure a stable supply of a fixed
- fraction of the energy supplied by existing systems both in quantity and
quality. On the other hand, a local energy system is (1) a local energy
system while being associated with initial investment load per energ~ unit
which is considerable, it utilizes natural energy and waste heat ar~d waste
materials so that the running cost is quite advantageous compared to exist-
_ ing systems. (2) The recent large increases in the price of oil has brought
about considerable lowering of the profit line. (3) Should the market expand
in the future as the result of energetic popularization and enlightenment pro-
- grams, mass production will become possible, and the possibility of costdowns
becomes greater. (4) As the result of promotion of development and utiliza- _
tion technology and exchange and disclosure of technology development informa-
tion, the collection efficiency of energy can be improved while equipment and
systems can be improved to enable lowered costs as a result of which this
- system will in the future be able to supplement existing systems to a certain
degree.
To this end the country and the local self-governing bodies must join as one
and actively promote leading and basic technology development. At the same
time, they should subsidize ~nd promote technological development by private
_ industry. Furthermore, they sho uld use model industries to study the possi-
bility of industrialization. In addition, a more specific aid will be the pro- _
vision of adequate subsidy management at the initial stages so that the people, _
indus~tries, and self-governing bodies which conduct business using local energy
can have their initial investment load and risk lowered.
Development and Utilization of Local Energy and the Procurement of Capital
_ Required for Industrialization
In the development and utilization of local energy the mode of obtaining _
capital for the main body of development and utilization and for the indus-
trial scale, contents, utilization application, and technology development
- stages are again diverse. On the other hand, as mentioned before, the overall -
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~ -
~ picture is that the initial investment load is large, and the need for some
sort of subsidy management to lower this load arises in many cases.
At the present time, there are already a number of examples in which develop-
ment and utilization of local energy is being pursued on the part of what is
considered leading local self-governing bodies to independently seek subsidy
management for the utilization of solar systems, medium and small waterpower -
systems, or power generation systems using trash.
At the same time, the country has included in its JFY 1980 budget stipends
for funds which various prefectural organizations can draw on in local energy =
related matters and to subsidize surveys directed at exploring the reserve
level and development possibilities of local energy. Furthermore, subsidy ~
funds have been budgeted for solar systems, geothermal systems, and medium
and small hydropower systems. In addition, energy forms such as wind power,
sea power, and biomass which are not yet in the practicalizatioti stage are
the subjects of research on leading and basic technological development
directed toward industrialization under the comprehensive research program of
the Sunshine Program.
Concluding Statements -
As discussed above, the development and utilization of local energy is still
beset with a large number of problems awaiting resolution with regard to the
volume of potential supply, its stability, and its economic aspects. On the
other hand, a coiintry so lacking in nztural resources as Japan must muster the
efforts of all its people to avail itself of the undeveloped local energy which
is around us. At the same time, the nation must posi~ion a local energy system
promotion program into its energy policy and develop this policy to improve
the stability of the energy supply of local society and to expand the volume
of the country's energy through the people's actions. To this end (1) there
must be subsidies management in the form of loans and tax breaks to promote
- local energy development and utilization; (2) promotion of leading and basic
technology; and (3) organization of popularization and enlightenment structure
to prarote development and utilization of local energy.
115
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116 ~
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Table 1. Objectives o: Local Energy Syatem
Energy
' Claseifi- Example of Energy Conversion
~ cation Energy Type and Utilization
Solar thetmal energy solar thermal pover generacion
solar thermal multiple utilization
(solar system)
photoenergy solar photcelectric power generation -
Wind kineti~ energy vind po~rer generation _
power vind pover multiple utilization _
Nedium and medium and small hydroelectric pover
small positional energy generation
- hydropover ~dium and small multiple utili.zation _
- of water poves
Ceothermal Chetmal energy geothermal po~rer generation
multiple puzpose geothermal power
generation
Biomass chemical energy utilization of alcohol as Euel
(methyl, ethyl alcohol)
biomass utilization
kinetic ~wave Wave poraer generation
� enerRV porret multiple utilization of wave power
posiiional tides tidal power generation
Marine energy multiple utilization of tides
thermal temperature temperature differential pover genera-
energy differential tion
multiple utilization of temperature
- differential
trash incineration trash incinerator power generation
waste heat multipie utilization of trash
incineration heat
Waste thermal waste heat from factory vaste heat power generation,
heat energy factory paverplants furnace top preasure power generation
utilization multiple utilization of factory and
power generator vaste heat
LNG liquefaction LNG liquefaction cold heat poxer
cold heat generation
multiple utilization of LNG
liquefaccion cold heat
house- ~arbage utilization of inethane fermentation
hold and trash gas from trash treatment
vaste plastic utilization of dry diatillation gas
wastes from trash treatment
4laste chemical hu~ utilization of inethane fermentation
products energy excreta gas from treatment of sewage (treated)
utilization animals utilization af inethaae feLmentation
gas from treatmeat of animal vastes
factory vaste liquid factory wastes for methane fermeatation
waste voody
products materials waste wood for fuel (such as Ogalite)
chemical energy hydrogen fuel cell pover generation (NG utilization
System energy conaervation urban mechanical
utilization compound use system
co~unity energy system
total utility system
' 11~ '
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Solar Energy
Tokyo DENKI GAKKAISHI in Japanese May 80 pp 45-53
[Article by Tatsuo Tani, Energy Department, Electrotechnical Laboratory:
"Development of Solar Energy"] _
~ [Excerpt] 1. Introduction
The energy resources problem facing the world recently is fluid and does not
permit any optimism, and this problem is fe1C particularly deeply in Japan
which is a resource poor country. This situation is prompting great thought
toward the development of alternate energy to replace the energy resources
used presently, and research and development directed at obtaining alternate
forms of energy is under way in the various countries of the world.
~ Full�-fledged research and development on solar energy and other. substitute
~ energies in Japan was initiated in JFY 1974, and the results are gradually
_ becoming practical.
The conditions an alternate energy must fulfill are, f irst of all, it must be
abundant in volume, it must be nonpolluting and safe, and it should be expected
- to maintain a low price structure in the future. This paper will discuss the
status of research and development on solar energy utilization technology
- both domestic and foreign and include some of the prospects for the future.
2. Metenrological Survey in Japan
The knowledge of the quantitative energy avaiZable from incident sunlight and
the elucidation of its properties are extremely important to the development
of solar energy utilization technology.
Meteorological surveys in Japan have been promoted in Japan centered mair.ly
on the efforts of the Meteorological Society of ~ea~es lts a e discussed the
meteorological pattern has been clarified [1].
below.
2.1 Distribution by Locales of Total Incident Sunlight �
Daily sunlight observation data from 60 sites throughout the country provided
by the Meteorological Agency were the basis for a study on the estimation of
the total incident sunlight. The various factors which are thought to affect
this total incident sunlight value were studied such as physical factors along
with case example analysis and statistical analysis to derive the following
regression equation.
Q/Qp = 0.146 + 0.534 S/Sp + 0.047 Gip + 0.036 sin H...����������������� ~1~
(Data number: 39 sites, duration: 966 months, multiple correlation coefficient: _
0.965, standard error: 0.018)
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Q: average monthly incident sunlight (estimated value)
Qp : average monthly planar incident sunlight outside atmosphere
(calculated value)
- S: monthly daylight duration (measured value)
- Sp : possible monthly daylight duration (calculated value)
G1 p: ratio of number of days (observed value) in month when snowfall
exceeds 10 cm (0-1)
H: sun's southern altitude on the 15th day of month (calculated value)
, This equation enables the estimation of the total incident sunlight Q with
an error of 5 percent.
= Q values were calculated for every month of the year on each of 153 sites
throughout the country, and the various statistical values which were derived
are discussed below. -
(1) Northwest seasonal wind in winter: The equal value line in winter runs -
parallel to the Japanese archipelago, and this line clearly displays the ad- _
verse weather of the Japan Sea side and the good weather to the Pacific
Ocean sid e. The ratio of fair days is extreme in December and approaches the
ratio 1:3.
- (2) Rainy season: The northward pattern of the rainy season line in May-
July is evident. The variations in June and July are greater i:han in other
= months indicating the wide variation in rainy season activity year to year.
(3) Ocean fog: The small incident sunlight at the southeast and northeast `
regions of Hokkaido can be attributed to the well-known ocean iogs which
blanket this area.
(4) Average incident sunlight in Japan: The average incident sunlight over
the entire country becomes maximum in May with a value of 410 cal-cm'2day-1
while the minimum is about 150 cal-cm 2day-1 in December. The average for the
year is 290 cal-cm-Zday-1. Excepting June and July, there is a variation of
8-12 percent per month while the yearly average undergoes about 3-5 percent
- variation.
As state d above, the average incident sunlight on Japan is 290 cal-cm 2day-1,
and this value is about the same reported for the European countries such as
northern Italy, Switzerland, southern France, Spain, and Portugal and southern _
Canada in North America. The greater part of the African continent received
more than SO percent compared to Japan along with the Middle and Near East
countries, India, southern Burma, southern Thailand, Australia, and western,
- north and south America which border the Pacific Ocean. Assigning these
countries the classification of sunlight resource rich countries, Japan _
comes under the classification of a medium sunlight country, and central and
northern Europe are resources-poor countries.
_ 121
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2.2 Directly Transmitted Sunlight, Diffuse Sunlight
Observational data on directly transmitted and diffuse sunlight are poor, and
the data on hand have limited applicability as a result of which continuous
observations on these values were initiated in JFY 1975. At the same time,
research on sunlight characteristics and estimation of directly transmitted
sunlight are being continued.
At the present time, the following are the sites where observati.ons have been
completed or are being contemplated.
Sapporo (Meteorological Abency) , Sendai (Japan Meteorological Soriety) ,
Matsumoto (Meteorological Agency), Nagoya (Japan Meteorological Society) ,
_ Fukuoka (Japan Meteorological Society) , Kagoshima (Japan Meteorological
Society, completed) .
In another direct ion, meteorological observations were initiated in March 197?
at the site being prep~red for a 1 MW solar thermal power generation plant
(Nio-machi, Kagawa Prefecture). The data obtained here will be applied to the
- construction and design as well as the post construction maintenance, opera-
tion, and research_
3. Direct Utilization of Solar Thermal Energy
3.1 So1ar Thermal Heating and Cooling
Solar heating ~nd cooling and hot water production designed for residential
use, collective homes, and public facilities along with research and develop-
ment on solar thermal heating and cooling are under way in Japan, and data
collection and analysis of the various systems are under way. The temperature
of the heat collected is of the order of 100�C which is comparatively low, so
that it is expected to become the first type to become practical. The tech-
nological results obtained during the past few years are truly remarkable.
This approach is progressing satisfactorily, technologically speaking, from
the standpoint of stabilizing the energy supply, and the problem is economic.
- An example simulat ing the economics of this system is next described. This
simulation will be based on the sunlight data for the different areas of
- Japan and the present (1978) cost basis to clearly show what level of economics
the solar thermal heating and cooling systems occupy.
The results obtair~ed for a single unit of 100 m2 floor area of a 2-story and
2-unit terrace home of concrete construction using solar thermal heating and
cooling are shown in Table 1. This table was thought to apply to a site in
the suburbs of Tokyo in which FOM is the index of the economic nature and
1/FOM is cost of installations for the solar thermal system/cost of yearly
saving in energy. According to these results, (1) improved durability (20
_ years), (2) rise in cost of energy (1Q percent), (3) costdown (assumed to be
70 percent taking into account standardization and mass production) , and
(4) improved performance of system (increase in energy saved, miniaturization
- of necessary systems) and the four conditions ~hich would enable comparison of
' 1?_2
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Table 1. Comparison of Estimated Values Between Yearly Simulation and Effect
Estimation Table
System ~ooling + heating + hot water system
" A. Regional nature suburbs
Heat holding property
of building good
- C. Heat collecting area 50 m2
D. Heat storage capacity 0.12 t/m2
_ E. Temperature holding
property of heat
storage layer (good) 0.2 kcal/m2h�C
F. Set temperature cool 85�C, warm 50�C
G. Backup site series ~
H. Collector position south
I. Collector angle latitude -10�
Estimated value
Type of Property Yearly from effect es-
simulation timation table Unit
Total dependency rate on
sun for year 79.94 79.86� 3.06 percent solar
Quantity of energy saved for
year (including power) 9,842.75 9,657.50�448.93 Mcal/year
Cost of energy saved
for year (versus gas) 98.49 100.3J.� 5.24 1,000 yen/year
Cost of energy saved
~ for year (versus lamp oil) 45.96 46.86� 2.64 1,000 yen/year
1/FOM (versus gas) 42.02 38.80� 3.53
1/FOM (versus lamp oil) 90.06 85.08� 9.43
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its economy with that of gas should one of the conditions be fulfilled. Should
two of these four conditions be fulfilled, its economy is expected to compete
favorably with that of lamp oil [13] .
Fstimates weXe made on the volum~ of et~~CfiY ~~nsum~d :ln Khe nurnhti;' ~f
dwelling~, nttd he~~ing ~nd coolittg .~ogds itt a number of studies directed at
estimating the rate of increased use of solar sys~.ems.
According to the results of one of these studies conducted by the Advi.scry
Committee for Ener~y, there will be 3 million hot water heaters, 80,000 heat-
ing attd cooling systems, 10,000 heating and cooling and hot water systems in
1985 operating on solar energy which are expected to increase to 6 million,
400,000, and 200,000 respectively in 1990.
- According to a report of the Air C onditioning and Sanitation Engineering
Society's solar thermal heating and cooling committee, a program to break up
- the development into 3 stages up to the year 20d0 will show the solar depen-
dency rates displ ayed in Table 2. While these are rather bold estimates, it
is estimated tha t there will be 4 x 10~ homes in the year 2000, and the solar
dppendency rate will be 15.2 percent of the heating, cooling, and hot water
supply energy of these homes.
Table 2. Estima ted Solar Dependence of Residential Heating, Cooling, and
Hot Water Supply (Japan)
. ~ a ~
= -=~5 ~ ~ B ~
i~~ I(10'~ kcal(a) (10~~ ke~l/a) (10� keal/e)
~ ~ ft
- '~~ar~~ z~ s I T s T s(%)
I 1a80~x^~ 8~0~ 76 3 1p6I 0.1 15 - 1.4
_
II 1?90f,=. w T i 835 I 135 ~ IB 155 I 5. d 27 0. OS T. 3
ID I~/~~ T j 8a0 ~ Gi10 i 44 ~.1 80 ~ 0.35 15.2
g T:~~x ~ w#-~ S=~:~SkA�= ~ m#"-
Key:
(1) period ~ (6) cooling
(2) year span (7) solar dependence rate
(3) number of homes (106 homes) (8) up to
9 T: total energy required
(4) hot water supply ~ ~
(5) heating S: solar depende*!*_ energy
~esearch is being hastened in Jap an to enable system demonstration in order
- to popularize t his solar system as much as possible, and it has been decided
to provide a subsidy system to fund public industrial bodies and local self-
governing bodies from JFY 1980.
In another dir ection, research is being promoted on solar heating and cooling
systems in the d ifferent countries of the world, and ~there has been some clamor
about the need f or international cooperative efforts. The IEA is presently con-
ducting coopera tive research on the following five items:
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- (1) Modeling and simulation of solar heating and cooling systems
(2), Research and development on solar heating and cooling components
(3) Methods of testing solar heat collectors
(4) Compilation of incident sun handbook and development of simple incident
sunlight gauge
(5) Application of existing mpteorological data to solar energy utilization
Japan is participating in research on items (1)-(3) and some interesting re-
sults are expected.
' As discussed above, research and development on solar heating and cooling is
being conducted on various fronts, and the following items have become clari-
fied in Japan with respect to the applicaticr. o� sc?ar systems to homes.
(i) Consid erable energy conservation can be realized thro ugh the use of
solar heat.
(ii) The solar system is capable of adequately handling the increase in
heating and cooling energy anticipated for the future.
(iii) The thermal insulation of buildings is simple both from the work in-
- volved and the economics, and the effect is substantial.
(iv) The vacuum glass collector has high performance, and by selecting a
collecting area which represents a good balance between load and area, the
performance can be exploited to provide maximum effect.
(v) There is an optimum volume of the heat reservoir tied into the heat col-
lecting area. A heat storage capacity which is too small results in very
~ pronounced deterioration in the solar dependence rate, and too large a storage
capacity does not necessarily improve the solar dependence rate. Energy loss
such as loss in stored heat becomes very noticeable particularly when the heat
res2rvoir has poor heat retaining property or~high temg~ra*_ure energy is
stored .
_ Research and development subjects left for future resolution are as follows:
(a) Exchange and treatment of information handled between various countries
on hardware which is seeing development yearly.
(b) Study of the economics under various differing conditions through year-
round system simulation.
(c) Improvement of overall safety and establishment of evaluation methods
including weatherability and wear of the system and equipment.
125
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(d) Study of possibility of applying the solar heating, cooling, and hot
water supply system to other areas for alternate energy.
(e) Research and cievelopment and study cf. goss~bi_lit~ oF very simpla, systems
_ designed to aid developing countries.
(f) Research and development and study on possibility of effective systems
designed for technological cooperation or product export to oil producing
countries.
(g) Surveys on the areas and conditions with greatest promise of u~ost effec-
tive practicalization of solar systems and their marketability.
4. Solar Power Gen~ration
4.1 Status of Research and Development in Japan
Research and development of solar thermal power generation has been under way
in Japan since JFY 1974 as one phase of the Sunshine Program and is being pro-
moted through close ties between the national research organs and industry. A
small scale solar thermal power generation system is being used to conduct
basic research on solar thermal power generation at the Electrotechnical
Laboratory. In another direction, the Electric Power Development Company is
constructing a pilot plant at Nio-machi in Kagawa Prefecture using a curved
collector mode and a tower collector mode, and it is expected that installa-
tion will be complet.ed in JFY 1980 and this will be followed by 2 years of
operational research.
The rated output of this plant is MWe, and the standards used in the construc-
tion are such that power generation of rated output can be produced when the
~ incident suniight intensity is 0.75 kW/m~ on i:ue normal surtace for the 2 hours
following the meridian in summer or spring. The heat storage capacity of the
plant can be developed from 3 hours rated operation and stored in pressurized
- water heat reservoir (sensible heat storage) or a molten salt heat reservoir
(latent heat thermal reservoir). The turbine inlet conditions for the respec-
tive plants are 343�C and 15 ata (curved surface heat collector) and 187�C
and 12 ata (tower heat collector) respectively.
J The principal purpose of the construction of the solar energy thermal power
generator and the operational research is to demonstrate that the technology
is available to construct a solar thermal power plant. At the same time, it
should bring out various technological problems and allow the accumulation of
productivn processes and operational data. It will also allow studies on the
economics as a commercial plant. In this manner the completion of the solar
thermal power generation plant is within firing range, and hopes for solar
Chermal power generation are increasing.
In addition, thermal and electric double solar system (solar total energy
system) with the objective of multiple utilization of solar energy is under -
basic research as another application of solar energy thermal power generati.or~
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r
which is being pursued at the Electrotechnical Laboratory. This system
directs collected solar heat for conversion to electrical energy, industrial
process heat, or utilization in heating and cooling. It utilizes low den-
sity solar energy to a 4ride range of diverse appl3cations to not only improve
the operating rate of the system but to improve the efficiency as well.
There is the following energy demand pattern in Japan which lies in the back-
ground of the development of this system. That is to say, the long-term
energy demand predictions for Japan are taken up for the greater fraction by
the industrial sector. For example, between 60 and 66 percent of the total
energy demand in the year 2000 is expected to be accounted for by the indus-
trial sector [5]. The breakdown in energy consumption per plant in Japan
at the present time is shown in Table 3. The volume of energy consumed both
as electrical and thermal energy at a light industry plant is about S00 kWe
electric and 3,000 kWt, and the ratio between the 2 is 1:6 [6J. Furthermore,
_ the final state of energy demand in Japan is expected to assume the pattern
shown in Table 4, and the~al energy below 350�C makes up 47 percent of the
total [7].
Table 3. Energy Consumed Per Industrial Plant in Japan
Electrical Thermal Ratio
Industry energy (kWe) energy (kWt) kWt/kWe -
Light industrial system 529.6 3,093.7 5.84
Chemical-steel ~ystems 2,576.0 49,600.5 19.25
Machine-metal systems 1,422.4 3,125.0 2.2
Table 4. Final State of Energy Demand in Japan
Thermal energy 68 percent
100�C less than 22 percent
100 - 315�C 25 percent
315 - 600�C 6 percent
600�C less than 15 percent
Liquid fuel fo.r transport (for automobile use) 20 percent
Electrical energy 12 percent
According to the results of certain studies, the installation of sunlight and
heat collectors on the roofs of factories and in the surrounding yards in Japan
c,rill be able to supply more than 50 percent of the necessary energy consumed in
a production plant [6]. There are any number of problems which need to be
resolved in the development of a system to accommodate changes in incident
sunlight and changes in load, but success with such a system is expected in
the future.
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In addition, plants are under consideration in which solar energy thermal
collectors are installed in the yard of an existing power plant and used as
heat source to supply hot water to the power plant. This plant not only will
enable improved overall eEficiency of existing power plants, but also malc~s
fuel economy possible. The existing large capacity thermal power plants pos-
sess considerable open space. Even making allowances for the necessary yard
area to conform to safety and environmental specifications, it should be
possible to install sunlight and thermal energy collectors which take up
10-20 percent of the overall area.
[de assume here a combined solar thermal and firepowered power generation
plant including a 1,000 MWe LNG fired thermal power plant in whose surrounding
yard sunlight and solar energy collectors are installed (collecting area
- 30,000 m2) and the thermal energy obtained from these collectors is used to
heat the water supply. According to the results of this study, the overall
efficiency of this combination plant is about 0.2 percent better than that of
the firepowered plant alone, and the volume of LNG which can be saved is about _
1,100 ton/year. If now 10 plants throughout the country are converted to this
type of power plant, this will be a saving of 10,000 tons per year and 150,000
= tons for the 15 years of the assumed life of the power plant [8].
At the same time, the use of a combination plant renders unnecessary major
improvement to the high pressure heater. When the volume of steam entering
a high pressure heater is small compared to the volume of exhaust gas from
the high pressure turbine, any effect from the variations in heat collected
by the solar thermal energy collector is thought to be small, and there seems
to be no factor to greatly affect operational control and maintenance. When
all of these points are taken under consideration, this mode has great promise
for the future depending on the construction costs of solar thermal energy
collectors.
- 4.2 Economics of Solar Thermal Power Generation
The solution of various technological problems and the establishment of sys-
. tems which rank high in comparison to the construction costs of existing
power plants or unit cost of electric power are extremely important in order
to enable practicalization of solar thermal energy power plants, and so that
solar thermal power plants are not saddled with fuel costs. Since the energy
source is solar energy, should the use of gigantic sunlight and solar thermal
energy collectors which have to stand for long periods outdoors become neces-
sary, it is imperative that these collectors maintain optical precision over
long intervals, and the operating rate can suffer in comparison with existing
power plants even though heat reservoirs are installed. In this manner, this
type of power plant differs from power plants of the past, and the cost is ex-
pected to rise.
At the present, there are more than 10 solar thermal energy power plants
under construction or in the planning stage throughout the world, and the
capacity of these plants covers the ~,ride range from very small to about 10 MWe.
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The present construction cost of solar thermal power plants and that predicted
for the future are compared in Figure 1[10] [not reproduced]. The cost of
constructing solar thermal power plants is greater than that of existing power ~
plants (nuclear power, coal fired thermal) but it is predicted that costs will
come down to the stage that they will become competitive in the 1990 decade.
In Japan, what may be an existing power plant with which the present solar
thezmal energy power plant can be compared is probably a hydroelectric power
plant. The cost of constructing hydroelectric power plants presently is about
500,000 yen/kWe, the cost of power generation is estimated to be 30-40 yen/kWh,
and there are many factors common to both modes. It is estimated that the 1 MWe
solar thermal energy power generating pilot plant in Japan is associated with -
construction cost on an order greater than the construction cost of a hydro-
electric power plant. There is need for efforts to lower the cost to the -
abovementioned levels through future research and development efforts.
On the other hand, a breakdown of the construction costs of the pilot plant
according to different facilities shows the fraction of the total cost taken
up in both modes by the sunlight and thermal energy collectors is about 50
percent. At the same time, the construction of the collector unit of a 10 MW
pilot plant in the United States accounts for about 70 percent of the total
cost, and this demonstrates what a large fraction of the total cost is taken
up by these light and heat collectors. In this manner, the construction of
sunlight and solar thercnal energy collectors at as low a rate as possible is
one of the major subjects to be tackled in order to lower the construction .
costs of these plants.
The development of sunlight collectors for a 10 MW pilot plant is being pro-
moted in the United States, and the second phase development plan has just been
initiated to enable future practicalization.
The purposes of this research are:
(1) Establish design for low cost, large volume production type sunlight
collector (heliostat)
(2) Conduct detailed economic evaluation
(3) Anticipate popularization effect to the industrial world on a wide scale
(4) Recognize research and development subjects
4.3 Energy Analysis for Solar Thermal Power Generation
Energy analysis of solar thex~mal power plants is being conducted in Japan. The
purpose of an energy analysis is to compare the energy directly and indirectly
necessary to construct a solar thermal energy power plant and the energy -
generated by a solar thermal power plant and the comparison of the directions
. in improvement research on the constitutive elements of a power plant seen from -
_ the standpoint of the volume of energy taken, and the results of similar -
analysis with other power generation modes.
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'fhere are a number oE methods for c~~n~tucting energy analysis, and the one which
1.s bcinK studied at the present time is the one in which Japan's industrially
relnt-ed tables are the hasi.c d~1ta t~? ~etermine and analyze directly the quan-
t i ly oE encrKy (enc~r~;y contc~nt) nc~cc~ssa ry t~~ E~roduce 1 uniC of product is
sc~mc we11 lcnown prodticL are~i.
`Che analytical results obtained usiiig a mechanical makeup of the 1 MWe solar
therma]. power pilot plant presently under con~`ruc~~on are shown in Figure 4.
Assuming that the power.plant puts out 1,Gu0 hours rated power a year, it will
gener.ate 1 MWh during t}ie course of the year, and its utilization rate wi11 be
34.5 years us3.ng curved light coll.ectors and 22.1 years using a tower collec-
tor in order to recover the energy required for th~ construction. On the other _
hand, :should the util,ization r.ate be doublcd (2,000 hours rated output per
year), it was found that primary stcel. products and glass used in the light
and heat collector.s require a large amount of energy. 'Chis was why analyses
were conducted on the following three cases. _
(1) 'l'he glass thir.lcness is .limited to 2 mm
(2) 'Che primary steel material used in these light collectors is reduced to
one-lial f
(3) The thj.ckness of gl.ass is reduc.ed to 2 mm and the primary steel material
used in the light collectors is reduced to one-half.

_ 1
,
~U 1
~
1tY ~l
~5 1, ~
~
F p ,�t
. . / 1 ~a.
1 `+e
~n] 10 ~d~b f 0 )
~
~ ��a~~ -(1)
`~~i. (0) -
i -
' S ~ (3)
~;a~- l 2 l
~ (2)
I I ~I31
0 1,OD0 ~'JW :i OUl 4 OUO 5,UOU
t11.a) ~tz.BS ~aa.t) cn5.6) .
(2 ~:~r~nruyr~a
c~;~~~~~
~ 1 ~ 8-/~-/~~ 5. {~?I~~,K, : ~hiGi~;Lh;
~k ~ 0 ~ TMN~! '1 /
(1) ~/97cJ�'~ 2mm
+~~11150)6~.?.1�.`Y~}IC
(3) ~l9~1~'~ .:inm 1:.~ t~i)Y:('.~;Jiltlf~''f~i}IC
F'i};ur'c ~E. Annual (lperatin~ Rate and Number of Year.s for Kecovery
- Kc~v: (1.) number. af years f.or recc~very (years)
~~nnuc~.l u~~ern[in~ rate (uCilizal:ion rate for year)
('l) t~wer s~inliglit collector, curved sunlight collector
(4) st~ndr~rd type
(5) ~;Lasti th.i.ckness 2 mm .
(6) steel mnterials in light collector reduced by one-half
(7) };lass thickness.reduced to 2 mm an~l steel materials in.reflector
reduced to one-hal.f 130
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On the other hand, there are a number of technological and economic problems
which need to be solved before this practical stage can be realized. First
of all, research t o improve the constitutive elements making up a solar
thermal power plant needs to be continued. For example, the sunlight and
solar thermal energy collectors should be constructed of material requiring
_ small energy input in order to lower costs. This is a type of structural
improvement research that needs to be _~nducted. There is also need to
develop heat storage faci lities which are adapted to Japan's weather condi-
_ tions and load patterns. At the same time, it is needless to say that the
energy input should be sma 11 and the cost should be low on the materials used.
Furthermore, there is need to compile detailed data through operational re-
search on the 1 MWe pilot plant and thereby establish the optimum operating
mode of a solar thermal power plant adapted to the meteorological co nditions _
of Japan. Simulation met hods have to be used to make this study, and further
detailed research is requ ired.
Here are listed some of the future forms of solar thermal power generation:
(1) Power generation solely by solar thermal energy
- (2) Compound thermal-electrical solar system
(3) Hybrid or repowering system compounding existing type power plants with
solar thermal power plants _
Where power generation solely by solar thermal energy is concerned, research
and development needs to be directed at large capacity and low cost of the
basic system fo~ the future. It is anticipated that this energy source will
shoulder a fraction of this country's future energy demands. At the same
time, these developments can be expected to become important export technology
to be used in international cooperative efforts in the near future.
- There is need to promote research and development on compound solar thermal
and electric power genera tion as an effective utilization of solar energy in
the future taking into c onsideration energy demand patterns and inc ident sun-
light patterns. Medium and small systems should be targeted to establish
systems conforming to the demand patterns and the sunlight p~tterns.
All country scale studies on the possibility of combining solar systems with
existing power systems a re necessary in the area of hybrid and rPpowering
systems. At the same time, there is need for detailed studies on technologi- -
cal problems and on the conservation of energy effect. There is ample ground
to say that the results of such studies will enable the practical development
of the optimum mode in the near future.
5. Solar Photoelectric P ower Generation .
5.1 Status of Solar Photoelectric Power Generation
Research and development is being promoted in Japan on the establishment of a
technologically and economically sound new photoelectric power generation mode
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in direct contrast tc~ rhe present po~~c+r generation tnodes by about 199U. 'Phe
research and development sul~jects bein~ pursued on solar photoelectric power
generation in Japan are Listed i_n Tahle At the same time, the. following
sub~ects are preSently being researched.
'1'able 5. Research and Development Subjects on Solar Photoelectric 1'ower
Generation
development of mass prociuction teclinology of
low cost ~tarting materials
� development of technology for. producing 1 ow
cost base plates
low cost solar development of mass production technology of low
batLery cost and highly efficient cells
development of mass production technology of high
f . efficiency and 1ow cose modules
development of technology to tie in with power -
ne two rk s
_ phoCoelectric
power development of technology to absorb varia tions in
generation power production (such as accumulation)
. system development of utilization states on the way to
� development -
development of inet�ods to measure and evaluate
starting materials
~ development of inethods to measure and evaluate cells
s tand~~ rd ~
evaluation and . development of inethods to measure and evaluate
measurement modules
methods establishment of base body for the actual facility
international cooperation related items -
. (1) llevelopment and methods of evaluation of high efficiency and low cost solar
batteries.
(2) Rese~rch on solar photoelectric power generation systems particularly
research directed.at the re].ationships with power systems. -
Ln the area of solar photoelectric power generation medium and smal 1 capacity
ciisPersed power generation utilizing buildings in the consumer areas and their
sizrroundinKs explaiting the features of this system is being studied for appli-
cation on, for example, the roofs of residences and elementary and middle
- schools. ~
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The United States is actively promoting research and development on solar
photoelectric power generation with a budget close to 100 million dollars per
year. The foundation of this American development plan is the following:
(1) Solar photoelectric power generation has the potential of providing a
great amount of electric energy, and it has the capability of providing a con-
siderable fraction of the future energy supply.
(2) Once the technological and economic problems are overcome, this form of
power generation should be capable of holding its own with existing methods
of power generation.
(3) A plan whic h invites market interest is important, and the government
should adopt a policy of purchasing solar batteries to vigorously activate
private interest.
_ The generation of 50 million kW by solar photoelectric power is targeted by
the year 2000.
Independent plans are being promoted in EC, France, United Kingdom, West
Germany, and Italy. The new energy development plan adopted by EC has divided
the period after 1975 into the first stage (4 years) and the second stage (5
years), and it plans to design and construct power generation plants to gener-
ate 2,000 kW during the second stage. A 1,000 kW power plant will be con-
structed in the northern part of Europe to use various types of solar batte-
ries and be connected to existing networks. At the same time, it is planned
to conduct comparative evaluation on the various types of solar photoelectric
power plants.
5.2 Economics of Solar Photoelectric Power Generation
The economics of solar photoelectric power generation will be explained through
- the description of a representative situation in the United States to be used
- as reference material for this country.
Active research and development on solar photoelectric power generation ha:;
been under way f or the past several years, and some of the recent research
results are as ~ollows:
(1) It became possible to lower incidental cost and manufacturing cost to
one-tenth of the former levels. .
(2) The objective of attaining the possibility of lowering cost of silicon
- material to one-fifth was realized.
- ,;3j Light cullecL-ors we~'e luwered in price by $2/Wp.
- (~F) An incidental cost of $1-2/Wp can be expected to create an expl.osive
development of th e markee. ~
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rvt~ vrra~.icau ~+.~u v..u.
Looking at the cost anticipated for 1990, .:he incidental price predicted for
1986 is $0.5 Wp, and the system energy cost is 12-18 yen/kWH (60-80 mils/kWH)
[12J. The anticipated production ol solar batte~ies and the price for both
Japan and the United States are shown in Figure 5~.
Sij ~ -
S2 1Sl'i~ 0 4 6~;i -'L" 1V
~~`�_~i� o .1335 ~ ~'c Zd."
bl �0~.159~3b
0
~1 ~ 1906$ �0~~2000~6 g ~ y~ c ~
~ T�
~ 3~S U5"v $~7z F 5{;r t~~ 10 a
:6 } (~~'Jn )11 ~
~ tOt lq
3 0:~/~11312
� : 13 2000'~~S~.r~i`c�ne"i.
34 a ~ . ~~~'J
' ~ ~
16 SO6 70~ 10� 10`' 1UW 10" iDit
- ` 16`~~$ (~v~~)
Figure 5. Mol's Predicted Curve and Comparison of Predicted Japanese-
Ainerican Solar Battery Production i
i
I
- Key:
(1) cost per watt (9) large capacity power generation
(2) 1977 (10) Mol's curve
(3) 1980 ~ (11) targeted cost for the United States
(4) 1985 " (12) America
(5) 1990 (13) Japan
(14) production goal for year 2000 ~
(5) 2000 !
(7) 1936 (United States) : -
(8) diesel power generation (15) production volume (W/year) ~
In addition, fund subsidies are being granted to Sandia Laboratories, MIT, NASA, s
- and SERI in order to open up the initial market aimed at test evaluation system
design, standardization, and energy conservation, and plans are under way to
operate 20-500 Wp systems in homes, irrigation projects, permanent tests, and
lo ad supply use (prototype system) all over the country. ~
If construction cost of about 500,000 yen/kW for solar photoelectric power ~
generation (similar to flow-in type hydroelectric power planr) is to be real- ~
ized under the weather conditions of Jam~acosthshouldrbeasuppressedytoc121000
support stand, land replacement, etc)/ en m2 or less
yen/m2 or less when plant efficiency is 10 percent and to 9,000 y/
when the plant efficiency is 7.5 percent according to a certain report [19]. ~
This is something which needs to be given adequate consideration in future
development goals. r
~
5.3 Power Generation in Space ~
i
- The reason space power generation ~densitlSiseln4 timesrthatlontearthloutside -
States is because the solar energy y ~
_ ~
r -
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- the earth's atmosphere, and power generation is possible in a nearly constant
rnanner, independent of night and day and weather. As a result, it becomes
possible to g enerate power utilizing solar energy 10 times that of the earth
based figure. At the same time, this environment is in vacuum and low temper-
ature as a result of which the lasting property of the equipment becomes much
greater than what can be expected on earth, and the end result is that such
a system is very economical. At the present time', NASA is the central organ
studying this possibility, and it plans to complete plans for the generation
= of 8 million kW or so by the year 2000. It may be that the space power genera-
tion svstem may become possible in the future through international cooperative
research .
5.4 Future Problems
As mentioned before, there is need to conduct research on a system exploiting
the characteristics of the solar photoelectric power generation system as well
- as to establish evaluation methods for the development of high efficiency and
lost cost so lar batteries. At the same time, vigorous policies for the ini-
tial development are also important.
6. Other Energy Sources
Methods of p roducing hydrogen by solar energy include the direct thermolytic
method and the thermochemical dissociation method. There is as yet no effec-
tive reaction process which has been established, but some active research and
development as a source of energy for the future is desirable. In addition, the
~ conversion of solar energy to chemi~al energy through photosyr~thetic plants is
being studied although there is considerable difference in yields between dif-
ferent ecological systems. Research is being conducted aimed at utilizing this
photosynthet ic capability of plants as an energy source.
(1) Plant solar batterq
(2) Hydrogen energy through the photodecomposition of water
(3) Chemical energy stored in biomass
These types of energy are conceivable, and many of these so urces are presently
being studied at the basic rPSearch stage. It is hoped that research and devel-
opment o n the elucidation of the photosynthetic phenomenon will be promoted and
methods of its utilization and the development of photosynthetic industrial
' processes exploiting the capabiliti_es of plants are followed.
~
= 7. Fina 1 Statements
The above has been a discussion on the status of solar energy utilization
= recnnology and its fut~.~re prospecrs.
The scop e of solar energy utilization technology is very wide and diverse.
There is need for efforts to introduce and assimilate technology and eliminate
;
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~
ter.hnologica.l and e~onomic problems. '~u the other hand, Chere are any number
o f un5olveci problems , and a:Long term ar~c~ well-or~anized research and develop-
ment system to pursue these suh-jects is des~rable.
- (Kec~ived 4 Febru~ry 1980)
`Solar Hou:~e'
'I'okyo SHUKAN SHINCHO in Japanese 8 May 80 p 25
[Article: "Present Status and Future of 'Solar House' llevelopment E:�:amined"]
[Text~ "S1im Hope" of Cost Lowering by Technological Development
- Unlike Eirepower, water. power, or nuclear power whictr generates concentrated
- energy in vast quantities at some centraliz~d spot, the mode of generating
necessary en~rgy.for a given site for local utilization is caJ.led "local
energy .
- 'rhis local energy system can be thought to draw on a number of diff~rent energy
sources such as wind power, wave power, or geothermal heat. Solar energy is
also one such candidate, and various technology has been developed and part of
it put to practical use to make solar energy serve as a power source Eor
wri.stwatches; provide hot water, heating, and cooling for homes; and even to
- power medium scale electric ~ow~= generators.
Among these different applications, the home which uses solar energy, the so-
_ ca_lled solar house, has appeared on rhe wave of an energy conservation boom
and increasingly ber_ome the sub3ect of great attention. This system generates
hot water through solar heat to supply hot water to the bathroom and kitchen
as we11 as to heat and cool the house. Systems are now in use ranging from
the most simgle "hot water supply" to "heating and hot water supply" and td
"he~lting, cooling, and hot water supply" in an increasingly complex manner.
For. example, there are two buildings in Minato-ku of Tokyo where actual systems
have been in use since 2 years ago . There are 24 heat collector plates aligned
on tlie roof whi.cti are connected to two 200-liter solar hot water heaters.
These hot water. heaters supply hot water. Warmwater circulates between the
1,50Q-liter heat storage tank located below and the heat collector plates, and
this l~ot water :Ls used to supply heat to the central heater in winter and as
the he~t saurce to operate the cooler. which supplies cold water. for cooling
in ~lie summer.
The cost of ~.nstalling just this solar heat utilizing section was about 6
mill.ion yen in addition to which the central air conditioning .system cost
about 8 mil.lion yen for a total of close to 14 million yen. According to the
calculations of specialists in the field, this investment can be amortized in
aUout 20 years, and this is particularly advantageous in view of the antici- ,
patrd rise in cost of oil and electric power.
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~ To be sure, there are only a limited number of homes which can install such
systems. Setting aside certain special buildings such as offices of power
companies, primary schools, hospitals annexed to universities, and experimen-
Cal solar homes under study by the Science and Technology Agency, the user is
burdened with a vast installation cost.
According to a survey conducted by the Association to Promote Solar Systems
(incorporated, established in 1978, representing 37 makers in related fields),
there is presently a total of about 4,600 solar homes in all of Japan. Of
this toeal, the so-called homes account for about 4,050 units. The remainder
is distributed between industry and public buildings. The "homes" which are
outfitted with the ultimate hot water supply, heating, and cooling faciZities
do not even add up to S0. When surveyed for geographical distribution, they
are found deployed from Hokkaido to Okinawa, but 70-80 percent of this total
is concentrated in the Kanto and Kinki districts.
Even this association admits that "the 1,100 units in 1978 increased to 2,600
in 1979, and this small rate in popular use is due to the high construction
cost." Improvement in performance through technological development and
mass production are being considered as a means to overcome this situation,
and it has been predicted that "since the performance of these heat collector
plates is now at the top level in the world, we think that considerable lower-
ing in cost can be realized once the technology to produce heat reservoir tanks
is improved."
Furthermore, the JFY 1980 government budget includes subsidies for public use,
and a low interest loan system f~r private parties was instituted in April.
This has brought the comment from the large makers that "we may grow to a
- 1 billion yen market in the next 1 or 2 years."
On t,he other hand, the results obtained by the Science and Technology Agency
in its 3 years of study begun in the spring of 1975 on an experimental solar
house located in Kusaka City of Saitama Prefecture indicated that "this system
is still uneconomical." Also the results uf a study conducted in the United
States reported "amortization of this system will require 12 years. Should
the price of oil rise to 35 dollars a barrel, this figure probably can be cut
down to about 4 years." Here again, the conclusion "uneconomical" was drawn.
There are some specialists in Japan presently wtxo calculate that "a hot water
supply and heating and cooling system will require 25 years for amortization."
At the present time, there seems to be little hope that this energy source can
disengage itself from its role as supporting actor to provide household energy.
; This is just the same situation as the role of the electr.ic automobile with
regard to the gasoline automobile.
COPYRIGHT: Tokyo Shinchosha 1980
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T.lIA l~~Tl'TAT TTCF (1Nf.V
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Geo L f~ ~rmal Energy
Tokyc~ I)I,*IKI GAKKl~I lASSHI in Japanese May pp 54~57
- [Artl.e.le by Masaalci. Shibatani and Ak~ira Ie~ilcawa of the Sunshine Pro~;ram
Headquarters, rlectric l'ower Development Co: "Development of Geothermal
Energy"]
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211
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212
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� LWi~ CON FBii
INTRO00TTI NEL ~008
15
3)
lWR CON FBii
INTRODOTTI NEL 7000
10
LWR E REATTORI INTERMEDI,CON
y F8R INT.QQDOttI NEL 2000
L~
J
1975 ~985 1995 2005 2015 , 2025
- Fig 8- LWR fuel reprocessing
Key:
1. 103 tons/yr solid material.
2. LWR and intermediate reactors with FBR installed in 2000.
3. LWR with FBR installed in 2000.
4. LWR with FBR installed in 2005.
9399
CSO : 310 4 ErID
aib
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