JPRS ID: 9498 WEST EUROPE REPORT

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JPRS L%9498
= 22 ~~nuary 1981
- West Euro e Re ort
p p
~ tF0U0 3/81)
Fg~$ FORElGN BROADCAST IN~ORMATION SERVICE
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'
~ JPR.S Lj9"~8
22 Jar~u?ry :198?.. ~
i
~dEST Et1ROPE ~EPORT
t~o~o ~/s~.) .
CONTENTS
ENERGY ECONOMICS ,
FRANCE ~
Energy Policy: Coal, Gas Sources, 'Use, Projections
- f,REViTE DE ~'ENERGIE, Oct 80) 1
- COUNTRX SECTION
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY ~
i Poehl Sees 1980 as Year of Economic Conaolidation
: (Karl Otto Poehl Interview; CAPITAL, Dec 80} 19
; Garaud's Political Role in 1981 Electiona, Views
(LE MONDE, 20, 23 Sep 80, LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR,
~ 27 Sep-5 Oct 80) 2~
I
Influential, Powerful, Serious,
by Andre Passeron
Devoted Adviser, by Andre Passeron
~ 4Tny Become Carididate, by Georges Mamy
- FRANC ~
i Tripartite Development of ASSM Noted
I ("ierre Langereux; AIR & COSMOS, 8 Nov 80) 28
Air Force To Get 72 Aircxaft Durzng i98~
(AIR & COSMOS, 8 Nov 80) 32
Naval Optronics Advances Outlined, E~p~sined
(Pierre Langereux; AIR & C~SMOS, 8 Nov 80) 34
New Computer To Be Tested for Use in Medical Diagnoois
(Fabien Gruhier; LE NOUVEZ OBSERVATEUi~, 22 Nov 80) 38
, _ a _ [TII - WE - 150.FQU0~
. -
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~ SPAIN _
Changing Blue-C~llar Attitudes Toward Labor Organization -
- (CAI~iiO 16, 26 Oct 80) 41
Survey of Poll Resulte
- I.sbor Leaders Discuss Results, by Camacho -
Analysis of Trends, Attitudes,
by Victor Perez Diaz
- UNIT~n KINGDOM -
Country's Involvement in Production of Gas Weapons Discussed
- ~David Fairhall; TRE GUARDIAN, 5 Jan 81) ....e.......... 53 -
- b .
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ENFRGY ECONaMICS ~ FRANCE
- ENERGX FOLICY: COAL, GAS SOURCES, USE, PROJEGTIONS
Paris REWE DE L'ENERGIE in English No 328, Oct 80 pp 313-347
[Suamiary of report of Commiseion on Energy and Raw Materials o� the French Eighth
" Plan]
[Excerpts]
= 1. The growth of dependence
= Taking over from oil 2. The awak3ning
~ 3. Future risks
The Commission on Energy and Raw Materials of the 4. Cut4ina back on oil
Vlllth Pian met between October 1979 and June 1980. In 5. The effort of adaptatlon needed
March, in a mid�session report, it suggested different 6. The m~croeconomic implications of enerpy
courses of action, for energy policy between now and redeployment
1930, to the Government. All its work, discussions and 7. The policfes and means recflmmended.
- debatas are assembled together in its final report, entiti� ~
_ ed � La Rel~ve du p8trole ~ and its appendices. But in 1- - The growth of depend~nce
view of the length of this document, has been con-
- sidered desirable to prepare a summary, in which its After a Ion
main polnts are retraced, the steps of the argument are 9 period during which coal reigned
set down, the pattern of th~ demonstration the Commis- supreme, a new phase in French energy history began
sion has ~ttempted tc, make is emphasized, and its prin- aro~und 1960. The use of coal fFll off sharply, by nearly
50 /o in 13 years. On the other hand, the consumption of
cipal recommendations are given. natural gas, eiectricity (of hydraulic origin) and above all
of oil developed rapidly :~Juring a period of heavy growth
in energy consumption, ~,dditional oil imports alone we~e
sufficient to cover the~ ;otal increase in demand. Thus,
This synthesis is deliberately selective and confined for the first time, divers;ification took place on the crest
to an analysis of energy problems ; the sections dea{ing of a veritable tidal wav~: of imported oil, and led to a loss
with raw materials in the report were considered to be of independence vis�~-vis the outside world.
sufficiently will grouped and concise for rapid consulta- This trend, which was seen in all the industrialized
tion and to make further cendensation unnecessary. ~ountries, was a logical one : the convenier,ce an~ f1e~c-
Even for energy, numerous points, though of obvious ibility of oil, the develapment of cars and road transport,
importance, have been hardly toucned cr~ or Sometimes the attract~on and benefits of an unobtrusive and
omitted, since they could confuse the overall coherence relatively unpolluting form of energy, ali combined with a
of the argument. The summary is developed under seven tall in the price af oil products compared with th~~.i of
main headings : other energy sources to justify the fact that the 1960s,
the golden decade in the grouvth of the consumer socie-
ty, was the era of oil, even if no one ;eally noticed it.
~1~
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- Fig 1: QART DE LA CONSOMiNATION COUVERTE PAR LA PRODUCTION NATIONALE
- Coveraye of primsry eneryr demand by r.ational production
~ % Source : Commissanat gAnbPal du Plan
_ I
80
60
.
_ .
.
.
40 ~
.
. .
.
.
20
Ann~es
1910 ~920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Years
_ 2.2. Wow did the French ecnnomy adapt to the firs3 oil This reconversion was made possible through increas-
ahock ? ed imports of steam coal. Purchases abroad have risen
from 16 milliun tons in 1973 to 34 million tons in 1979. Or~
TABLE 1: The structure ol energy consumptian the oiher hand domestic production has continued to
decrease, though admittedly at a slower rate than in the
197~ t979 past : despite the cancelling of price control, coal pric~
have not gone up sufficiently to enable Les Chartyor?-
Coal ~7�4 1~�g nages de France to balance its costs, and it is still
Oil 66.7 57�1 operating a4 a loss.
- Natural gas 8�5 ~2�2
Primary electricity ~�d 12�8 For oil and gas, there has been little improvement in
100.0 100.0 supply conditions : for the former, the effort of mini~nize
costs has led to an increass of the share of OPEC crudes
- Total Mtoe (1) 175.4 190.5 in our purchases and for ttia latter, deliveries from
France and Holland ~re in the course of giving way to
~t~ M~~~ion Imetnc) tons ot oi~ equiva~ent. supplies from the U.S.S.R., the North Sea and Algeria so
as io cover the growth of the demand.
2.3. On the supply side, the main action taken to counter
the 1873 price rises was to speed up the nuclear Rra ~4. Tuming to demand, there has been a marked
- gramme. change compa~ed a?ith the previous trend : the apparent
elaaticity of ansrgy consumpticn in relation to G.D.P.,
Every year since 1974, decisions committing the in� which vieas 1 for tha 1958l1973 period~ fell to 0.5 after the
stallation of about 5,000 MW have been taken ; this ftrst oil s~ock, but mor~t of this reduction occurted in
should lead, from 1980 onwards, to additional energy 197a, when the recesaion was at its worst. Since then,
availability equivalent to 6 million tons of oil each year. the trond has atabilized at around 0.8.
At the same time, an effort has been made to limit the The "energy savings" thus achieved have been
- usa of fuel oil in thermr.' power plants and to substiiute e~al~atsd at 18 mill~on toe for 1979, more than one half
coal fnr it : ths share o# coul in the fuel used in the elec- of which was in tho residential and tertiary sectors. This
tricity power plants of E.D.F. has thus risen from 16 % in result was attained through a bulky arsenal of regula-
1973 to 48 % in 1979. tions, action~ to influence behaviour, and revisions to
equipment standards, aIl in good time. But above all it
_ 2
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A
FIG.3 : Evolutlon des prix reets'des 8nergias dans les secteurs de consommation ~
Mov~m~nts in the rsal prlc~s o! dlHerenf snerpl8s !n conauminp secton
Ind~ce intlice ~
IDase ~00 en i9701 Ibase ~CO en t9701 -
index PEtrole Orut ~~tler
lb~ss 100 ~n i9701 C~ud~ oil IOes~ ~OO~n t9Y0) Petrole brut
400 ~ 400 Crud~ o~i
_ ~ ~
/
- MarchA Oomgsti0ue ~ March9 induslnel ~ -
_ 3r~ pn~ barAme T T C ~ 3~ 0~~% H.T. ~
- Res~dennarsector / Industnalsecfcr ~
pnces ~nc raxes / p~rc~s ex. faxes ~
- /
30~ , % ~ ~ / -
- ~ ~\v / / I \~y ' \ /
~ \ / 1 \ /
1 v 1 r
250 ~ Fuei a~ domestiQue 250 I Fue~ iourd
~ Heaf~ng o~l 1 Heavy Fuel oil Gaz
I 1 Nafura/ Gas
- I t
200
I ~ I .~~1'~
~ 1 .
i ~ %
150 ~ ~r~ I~ Charbon
' ~ / Coal
' Gaz I ' E/ecfnciry
Nafu~rtl Gas Ihigh voltagel
- 1pQ ElectncrtA ~ Eleclncrfy 100 ~ Electncit9
- ~basse tenaionl ~ow vo~tagel (haute tens~on~
197a 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1970 t972 1974 1976 1978 1980
Spwc~ Cpmm~uH~at p~M~al pu p4n f9B0 IR~~ mE~~H ~ur au~ Cu P 1 81
Sou.c~ Cpnmuunai pln~�~r au M~n IGAO rpr~~ nrW~M on 0 D P W~Mron
was the consequence of changes in the roal prices of b) Pink scenario. An agreement is reached between
' energy : that of oil products rose, as did, to a lesser ex� the producing and consuming countries to plan price in-
_ tent, that of gas ; while coal and especially electricity re- creases on lines that might be based on the ideas sug- " -
mained stable. Sested by the long-term strategy group of OPEC.
i To all these economic uncertainties surrounding In constant 1980 money terms, crude oil will go up by
~ energy pricss, must be added those arising from the 2,~o a year until the year 2000, reaching � 37lbbl in 1990
1 politfcal ~ontext in the Middie East, from East�West rela� and $ 45 in 2000. The price of coal w~;: rise less fast, by
tions, producers' and buyers' attitudes, the growth ~ o~o per year, and its price c.i.f. Le Havre will go up from
rates in the industrielized countries, etc. ~onsequentiy, _
! since making predictio~s in these domains would be $ 50/t 10lboe) to $ 55lt in 1990 and $ 61 13/boe) in .
2000.
; very hazardous, the Commission has suggested three
scenarios of how the international energy market may The other prices are given in the table and figure that -
evolve. follow. - .
c) Grey scenario. No agreement is reached between
s) Worst case scenario. This is the scenario ot a producers and consumers. The former reduce their pro- -
breakdown in supplies : following a political or military duction to eliminate "unwanted" production ; the latter -
- crisis in the Middle East, production in the Gulf is cut by do what they can to maintain sufficient ~rowth to avold
_ a third or half ; for France, this would mean the disap- massive unemployment. It is difficult to say how far `
_ pearance of 25-40 % of her oil resources and 15-25 % of prices will rise : the rate ~f 7% per year given is simply
her total energy resources. The Commission did not feel an approximate illustration of the possible increase. It
competent to deal with such a situation. Not because it brings the price per barrel up to $ 60 in 1990. After this
is improbable, but because the problem would not be date, it is to be hoped that oil prices may stabilize with
one of planning so much as organizing a state of drastic the return to relative energy abundance.
shortagas, with energy rationing and sacrifices.
.
I ' _
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T.48LEAG' - E.o~unnn des ~o~sommanons d'znerqre enrre :978 rr 37~) ~en Grepi .
TABLE 2. - P~otecrron ol world energy demand to rne /ear 2000'~n Gtoei
' ~ Charoon ! Petroie Gaz ~ yuc'ea~re i Hyaraui~oue ~ Energ~es i Total
! ! ~ ~ nauve~~es ~
nature~
~ Coal ! 0~! Naturai gas ~,vuaear ; Hvdroelec. ~ New i ~otai
i ~ energ~As _
, ~ -
- .
' � ! i -
t978. ,
Paye a econamie de marche ~ , ;
Market economies ~~.0 2.~ O.dS O.tS 0.35 , - , 1.b5 `
~
OCOE ' ' ~
- OEGD O.oS 2.0 0.75 O.tS , 0.25 , - ; 3.~
, ~
_ ' ;
_ Pays en vo~e ae d~~e~opt. ~
Develop~nq counrnes 0,15 ~.5 0.t - 0.~ - 0.95
Pays a 6conomie planilioe ~ �
CentraAy planned economles ~.0 0.6 O.d - 0.05 - i 2.05
I
- Total monde 3; ~ t.25 O.tS ~ 0.1 - ' 6.7
- vVO~~d tota~ .
t985 I ~ ! ; i I
I
Pays a economie de marche i ' ; _ ' .
Market economres t.2 j 3A i t,0 O.a i 0.~ ; 0.0 -
~ ' I
OECO ~ t.0 2.3 ~ 0,8 ' 0,35 0.3 ~ - ~ a,75 -
~ Pays en vo~e Oe oAveiopt. ~ !
Develop~ng countrres I 0.2 0.7 ; 0.2 , 0.05 I 0.1 , - ~ 1.25
= Pays ~ economie planilfee ; I I
Centrally planned economies i ~.a ' 1,i t 0.6 0.05 i 0.1 i OA5 i 3.~
_ ~
Total monde I ' ~ ~
'Nond ~ota~ j 2.6 s. t ~ t.6 0.45 I 0.5 0.05 i 9.3
~9so � � ' ~ . I ,
Paya a economie de marchb , ~ I , _ ~
' Market economies , ~,5 ' 3,2 ~ t.t 0.7 0.5 ,
i ; ~ ~ ~
OCOE ' '
OECO t.2 2.a ' 0.85 O.o ' 0.3 ; - ~.35
. ~ ! _
Pays en voie de dAveloPt. `
Develop~ng counrr~es 0.3 . 0.8 j 0.25 0.1 ~ ~.2 : - ~.05
~ ,
Pays s economie planifiee ' ;
Centrafly planned economies ?.o ' 2 . O,d 0. ~ 2~ 5 C.05 ~.3
~
Total monae s,s i.9 O.d O.oS G.05 , ~0.9 `
~'/orra !ora~ ' � , -
i ~ ~ ~
I ,
200a i ~ , i ~ ' ' _
i
' Psys a economie de marche ~ -
Market ~conomies ; 2.2 ' 3.2 ~.5 t.8 0.7 0.2 , 9.6
i i ~
- OCOE ~
OECD t.7 , 2.2 1.0 0,3 O.tS ~ 6.85 I
'
, Pays en vo~e 7e oeveiopt. 0.5 0.3 O.a O.CS � 2.75
OeveloArng coun~rres 0 ~ ~ _

- Pays a economie planifiee ~ _
- Centrolly plannsd economies 2.5 ~�Z ~~3 ~�2 ;
Total monCe ~ ~ : ~
Woiid tptal ; a.7 ~ a.3 ~ 2.7 i 2.t i 0,9 ~ 0.3 i ~5.0 _
4
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FIG.S : Scenarios de prix ~ Qrice scenarlos
SiWp SCENARIO �NOSE� S~Wp SCENARIO ~ORIS�
LOOa "PINK. SCEN~RIO f~~a� �ORE1'� SCENAAIO
~ ~
70 70
60 ~ =
50 50 ~ _
/
40 qp ~E ~
Q~tQ`�~ o~~ -
PETRO~E ~0
E pil GP i -
CRU ~ -
?
I ~ G~ T5
pP'~'S / JP~~
20 NAt~ 20 ~t~~~
I =
H ~0/,L
~ CHPPgp
- ~O CHARBON C to _
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 ~
- TABLEAU 3. - Perspectives d'~volution des prix de 1'energie enlre 1980 et 1000 (l)
- TABLE 3. - Outlook lor energy-price changes between 1980 and 2000 (i)
Base : d8but 1980 SCENARIOS 1980 ~ 2000
Base ~an 1980 ScAnario = rose + ScAnario � gris � ,
Pink scenario G~ey scenario
P9trole 30 S/baril + 2% par an 1980-1990 7% par an
Oil S 30/bbl + 2�io per year 1990-2000 : Stabilit9 ou ajustement vers 45160 $ baril
Gaz 3,5 $/MBTU En 1990 :~quivalence au prix du fuel lourd B.T.S. (chez I'usager)
Nstura! gas in 1990 : equivalenl to
p~ice ol low suller lue~ _
oil (delivered to the
user)
- + 3% par an jusqu'en 1990 : 1% ensuite
~ CHAR80N 50 $tt + 1% par an ou
- Coa! S 50/t + 1% pei year + 5% par an jusqu'en 1985 : 3% ensuite
, + 3% per year until 1990: 1% ensuite
o~ + 5% per year until 1985 + 3% alter
ELECTRICITE t3,5 c/kWh StabilitA
nuclAaire
Nuc/ear e/ectricity cF 13,5/kWh Stable
(1) en mdnnaie constante. _
- in constant money terms.
countries, it is around the grey scenario that energy
Coal goes up by 3% per year (bringing its price to $ policy should be planr~ed in any case.
671t in 1990) until 1990, and then by 1% until 2000 (on .
which date its cost will be $ 74lt, equivalent to $ 15Jboe).
_ 4. Cutting back on oil
It is not possible to assign a degree of probability to
each of these scenarios. But in view of the difficulties of ~n consideration of the risks inherent in and the
dialogue between producers and consumers, the da~~ger
of fostering illusions and the logic of events in the OPEC outlook for the international environment, the top priority
is quite clear : steps must be taken to move away from
S -
F(1R (1FFTr:TAT. TTSF. C1NT.Y
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oil, and as quickly as possible. Taking into account xhe We are thus caught in a trap : either we h~ve an
J flexibility of oil supplies, their faculty for adaptation and economy that is moiivated to reduce its energy
- their vocation as a"stop�gap" in the energy balance, dependence but is too anaemic to do so rapidly; or, an
there only sxist, arithmetically speaking, tvuo means for ~conomy that has the means to accomplish this tut _
achieving the aim : reducing overalt consumption and in� Wants to forget thc~ perils that surround it and make hay _
creasing the share of the other energies. These two While the sun shines. Ii we are to break out of this vicious
. directions will be explored successively. circle, the only possible strategy is to fix a course and
- keep to it whatever happens.
4.1. What target tar energy consumption can be fixed for
ti~e perfod untll i~l90? The energy policy followed must enable France to
have a growth rate of 3.5 if the international situation
Energy consumption depends p: incipally on the rate allows it. This will mean a considerable effort in energy _
of growth of ~.D.P. and on ihat of the real cost of energy. saving, and the objective recommended is :
_ The int~rnational scenarios (rosy and grey) give hypothe-
- ses for how the real cost of energy will move in the next - for 1985 : 219 Mtce ~
twenty years. One is still io be suggested for growth. As - for 1990 : 242 Mtoe
t+ie e~~~nts of recent years have shown, the trend in
energy costs conditions the rate of growth in many res� If the grey scenario applies, this policy wi11 be much
_ pects. This fact has allowed us to assign to the rosy sr,e- more difficult to folluw, and in practice we could be
nario, for France, a growth rate of 3.5 % per year, whe- reduced to tryi~~ to maintain the previous trend.
_ reas the grey scenario would only appear to bs compati� 4.2. What eneryies a~e available for saPi~fying this con�
ble with a lower rate, of the order of 2.3
sumption need ?
, 8ased on these assumptions, figure 6 gives the dif-
ferent consumptions that would be attained in 1990 ac� - Coal: impurted coal has much in its favour for
~ cording to the various hypotheses for prires and growth French energy supplies : gigantic reserves exist, and
rate, if ihe relations observed statistically over the these are well distributed geopolitically ; its price, which =
period 1960-80 between ~nergy consumption, growth and is remarkably stable (in constant money terms) despite
the cost of energy were to be corroborated in the future. tha rise of oil price, gives it a competitive advantage. It is _
= true that heavy investment is required to mine it 100 to -
Projections give values varying between 221 Mtoe 150/t/y), and numerous obstacles (transport, unloading
(grey scenario : 2.5 and 266 Mtoe (rosy scanario : zones, etc) remain to be overcome. But these are not in-
3,5 superable and coal world trade should progress rapidly
over the next fifteen years. ~
In the case of the greY scenario, moderation in con-
_ sumption would be largely due to the reduced rate of There would thus be no major difficulty in increasing
- growth. Furthermore, the rise in prices would certainly the level of French imports (30 Mt in 1979) under satisfac- -
provide an incentive to save energy. The obstacle to over� tory conditions of price and security of supply. However,
come v~ould not be that of motivation, but rather of fin- whereas foreign oil companies have for several years -
ding the finance for the investment needed ; the low been acquiring control over numerous coal mines, usual� _
growth rate and the rise in the cost of energy would ly the rir,hest, French operators have played but a minor
- favour neither an increase in wage-earners' purchasing role in this movement. It is becoming urgent that they
power nor theaccumulation of profits by companies. The should participate more actively, both in the interests of
. economy would suffer from anaemia. French Frocurement of supplies (the acquisition of min-
ing rights equivalent to national needs wou(d be a
If however the rosy scenario were to apply, companies reasonable objective) and also in those of penetrating a -
- would have tY~e resources necessary for the enormous ef- world ma~ket that is likely to grow very rapidly.
fort of energy redeployment (1), but would they have the
motivation and clear vision to undertake this ? Operators should therefore be able to produce or to
(1) express~o~ oo~~owed nom ~ne r+eid o~ sc~acefly. purchase abroad and sell on the domestic market. The `
- mon~p4ly over imports, while its effectiveness must be -
maintained, will probably have to be modified to achieve
this end.
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FIG1.8 : Tendances et objectif de con~a?mmatfon d'~nergie
Energy consumptlon : trends and obJectlve
Mtep
Mtoe ~
TENDANCE PIB ~2
300 GDP TREND
- g ~ 5o~a
, SG~~aene(oo 3 5a~o 266
P;nK 5~ 250
- 25~
~o cos~ 3�~0
s~~~~,i ~ GS\F 242
p~~k 3~ene~1O~y~~~E ~ ~ 233
Q~a~ � 8~
0 3 ~0 ~ 221
s~ S~en
208,9 219 greY t`Q 25�/0 50~0
2Q0.0 g~g~acio S~en~rio 2,
- 200 ~94.1 gre~
188,3
181,3 190,9
177,2
175,4 184,5
, 178,3 175,3 179,6
- 185,2 annAes years
150 ~
73' 74 75 76 77 78 79 85
Source : Apencs pour lee Aconomiero e'dnerpie Soura ~ Ap~ncy lo~ Enerpy Savinys
- FIG.7 : Evolution de la consommatfon rappartge au P.I.B. en volume
The relation of French energy demand to real G.D.P.
= kep11000 F (1980) ~e PIB
koe/1000f (1980) 01 GDP
- a~ ~g 7g
O
- O O 77 ~ ' Q GXTRAPOLATION
~ 1 ~.Q 72 ~
70 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
i
0 ~
~ OBJECTIF ~
~ 08JECTl VE 63
_ 6l? ~
I
_ 1
1
_ ~
1
60 65 70 1973 75 SO 85 90
- Source Commrsssnef ObnA~a~ tlu Plan
, 7
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Unfortunately, France is I~ss well favoured with coai and it also offers FrancA advantages from the point of -
' deposits on her national territory. Those that can be ax- ~~ew of security of supply : ura^.ium only accounts for a
_ p~oited under acceptable ecc~nomic conditions are most- small share of the cost of the electricity,and the "fuel cy-
fy in Lvrraine oc Provence, or in certain strip mines. In ihe cle" is satisfactorily cantrolled from within the national
other coalfields, It seems in~evitabls that a certain degrae terrltory. The enrfchment capaclty at Eurodif Is sufflCient
vf regression should continue. to provdde for French needs t~ to 1990 ; the installationG
at Marcouie and La Hague are in a position to reprocess
The fact that there have been virtually no exploration the spent fuel ; and lastly, France should be abie to pro-
- outside the traditional zones during the lasi twenty duce 30 to 40 % of her needs and to have available a .
years, together with the progress that has been achieved stockpile of uranium representir~g several years of -
in research techniques, makes it both possible and domestic consumption.
necessary to draw up an inventory of exploitable coal Two uncertain points remain in this very positive pic-
~ reserves. This would appear to be a high priority today : _
- ezcti extra million tons produced at a competitive price ture : the question of keeping controi over costs in the
- would make it possible to save $ 50 � 100 million on coal building of nuclear power plar~ts and fuel-reprocessing
centres ; and the equilibrium betwesn world supply and
imports. demand for uranium which, ii more and more nuclear
All in all, demestic production could be around 10 to programmes are put in hanci, could !ead to price tension _
_ 15 Mt in 1990 ; the exact amount will depend on the pro� in the first half of the nexi century. The fast breeder reac-
duction costs of our coalfields, compared with that of tor is a safeguard against such threats. Studies should
_ imported coal. therefore be continued with the object of improving the -
economic and commercial advantages offered by this
- Nuclear energy : the French nuclear programme is system, so as to make it campetitive with light-water -
- an industrial venture on an exceptionally larfle scale ; it ~eactors over a reasoriable range of uranium prices. This
~ is progressing satisfactorily in general, and has been being the cas~, Electricit~ ~e France could under;ake the =
The Commission feels that a relatively "grey" trerid in building of two industrial-scale reactors, which would
energy prices and moderate growth (of the order to come on stream in about 1990. The interests at sta~ke =
2.5 should be assume~ ; the Government, by fixing a(multiplying by more than 50 the energy reserves contain-
_ higher growth objective irt its programme of April 2nd ed in th~ uranium) fully justify this effort.
- 1980, implfcitly fav~urs the rosy scenario. It matters lit- =
tle, if we are on the course : this is the condition for a Hydroelectricity is not likely to be able to provide
ret~rn to some degree of independence. much additional energy by the end of the century : wa -
regularly implemented for the last 6 years. Since it is may hope to increase the present figure of 14 Mtoe to
financed through the capital market and very long con- about 16 in 1990 (including 0.25 Mtoe from micro-power _
stations). On the other hand, the supplementary power it _
struction Iags together with planned programming are can provide - espacially from pumped�water installa- ~
implied, the room to manoeuvre between now and 1990 ~s tions - should help to permit more economic operation
- not very large : of the electricity production network.
- The "new energies". The outpouring of ideas and
- � if, aiter the acceleration taking place in 1980 and the first experiments carried out since the first oil crisis
1981, the annual commitment rate amounts to 5,200 MW, are leading to better knowledge of the potertial of the -
electricity production of nuclear origin could reach a ~~~ew" energies and of their relative importance. _
level of 73 Mtoe in 1990 ;
_ � Ger~thermal energy -
� the maximum programme technically possible The country's resources in geothermal energy have
would include, in addition to this planned development, ~eer. evaluated at 5 to 6 million toe. ~conomic exploita- _
- three units of 1,300 MW each between 1982 and 1984, i.e. tion of this requires the presence of a sufficient number s
about 3 extra Mtoe. of housing units close to a hot water source. But the
technology is now well ~cnown and, for an additional in- ~
For all the hypotheses considered, the nuclear option VeStment of 5 to 8,000 F per toe, should permit the pro- �
is fufly justified economically and should permit elec- duction of 0.6 to 0.9 million toe in 1990.
tricity to become competitive in a wide range of uses ;
8 -
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threshold, it is by n~ means sure that conaumer; wauld
� 6iomass be prepared to pay it.
Between now and 1990, the biomass, and especially -
wood, should begin t~~ make a significant contribution to Consequently, our gas suppiy policy should be guided
- the country's energy ~upplies (about 8 million toe). by two considerations :
For this, choices will have to be made between the dif� � a balance must be maintained between supplies to
ferent uses of wood ; we must perfect operating the general public, which must be continuously avai-
methods, set up systems for felling, preparing and col� lable, and supplies to industry, which may be interrupted
- lecting the wood, and initiate pilot operations in several for shorl periods ;
large afforested areas : the rasources exist, but ex-
~ ploiting them will not be easy. � better geographical diversification must be achiev-
= ed.
_ � Solar eneigy
The first experiments indicate the scale of thg invest� It would therefore seem prudent to ~ix an objective of
ment necessary : 10 - 15,000 F per toe for domestic hot 37 million tce for 1990, leaving the possibility of rovising
water suppties and an averac~e of 30,000 ~ per toe for this objective in the meantime if discoveries in France or
space heating. Western Europe were to allow this.
These are large expenditures, but their counterpart is - Oil
decentralized energy and absolute secunty of supply.
The French oil supply policy should have three objec-
; This being the case, though the contribution of solar tives : better gc~a-political diverslfication of import
- energy will still be modest on the national scale in 1990, sources, an effort io increase the national potential in
the experiments should be encouraged, in order that this hydrocarbons, and maintenance of the technical ad-
- energy should have attained technical and economic vance achieved by the French oll Industry. For, this ad-
- maturity by this date. vance helps to counterbalance the lack of domestic pra
duction with ac4ive French presence abroad, and,,by
~ All in all, these new energies could provide nea~ly ?0 opening up access to oil resources, improves the securi-
" million tons of oil equivalent in 10 years' time. To turn ty of our supply position.
~`~is es!imate into fact, the Commission feels that it is
urgent to allocate responsabilities for each of ihem,
~ logether with a time-table for implsmentation of the dif- 4.8. This analysis of the Fronch primary~energy supply
ferent stages. situation leads the Commfsslon to pre.l6ct the followiny
- - Natural gas energy balance for 1980.
The growth of gas consumption made possible oy the
discovery first of the French Lacq field and then of those (~n mlllion toe;
~ in Holland has contributed to lhe security cf French _ Caal 28133
energy supplies. Nevertheless, the situation is likely to _ Nuclearelectricit 73/76
be less iavourable in the future. It is true that further y y y~
- H droelectricit 15
large discoveries may be made, in the North Sea and in ~ Newenergy sources 10
Africa, and no efforts should be spared in such prospec _ Gas.
_ 37
tion.
- - C~il 70180
But such discoveries cannot be counted on, and if they
~ are not made, the level o( our consumption must be Yhe exact breakdown - especially for oil - will
adapted so as to be compatible with o~r resources, and depend on the ability to mobillze national resources
~ so as to ensure tha~t we are not too dependent on one or ~coal, new energies, nuclear electricity) and, further, on
- two supplying countries. the adaptation of consumption structure.
Moreover, the price to be paid for such supplies is at
present very uncertain. If ii were to exceed a r,ertain
9
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the professions concerred will have to be organized ac� ~
. 5. The efiort of adaptation needed cordingiy, diagnosas wili have to be provided, the pro� _
cess of decision in co�ownerships will have to be speed� -
~ If France wants to recover greatsr independence in ed up and suitable financial facilitles set up. The energy =
energy, she must make a substantial effort to save Producers have a part to play i~ implementing this
^ energy, and the breakdown of supplies have to be Policy.
- radically changed during the 1980's. Will it be possible b) The use of coal in industry
_ - and at what price - to reduce specific consumptionS,
to reduce the dependence on oil progressively, and to jhe obstacles to a return to coal lie much more in the
increase the share of coal and electricity without area of insufficient demand than in supply difficultie5.
~
_ upsetting accepted tike styles ? What will be the effects For the user, the disadvantages oi coal are various in
of adapting dernand to this new structure have ?
_ nature : it is heavy, solid, more difficu{t to transport than
The detailed studies carried out for the Commission fuel oil or gas, and requires large stocking areas. The
by sector and energy category suggest the scale of the boilers in which it is burnt cost two or three times as
ePfort that will be necessary. its cost ~r~d of iis much as those used for hydrocarbons. Ash and im�
difficulties. They may be summarized in four essential purities make it difficult to deal with and require addi�
- points : tional handling. It is a polluting form of energy implying =
5.1. The structure of consumption wiif be radically the installation of expensive dust removal equipments.
changed by : Lastly, industri~l companies would like to be given supp�
ly guarantees before they agree to reconvert to coal.
' - reducing energy consumption in all sectors ; for
housing and the tertiary sector, a particularly determined ~f they are not removed, all these obstacles could com�
policy must be implemented ; promise the achievement of the objective the Commission -
has set for 1990 : quintupling the consumption of coal in
- - a return to coal in industry ; industry.
- inr,reased penetration of electricity ; This objective, which is fully justified by the price
hypotheses made in the scenarios (see figure 8), may be -
- the use of the new energy sources for space perhaps the most difficult challenge French energy
heating and domestic hot water. policy will have to face in forthcoming years.
The last of these four modiiications depends as much c) The penetration ol electrrcity
on individual effort as on the development of appropriate
techniques and su~ply conditions. Electricity should be providing the equivaleni of 100
million tons of oil in ten years' time. How to expand the
The three others imply a real mobilization campaign : markets of that energy ?
" a) Saving energy in housing The problem is very different in industry from that in
While in new housing construction a raciuciion the residentiai and tertiary sector. -
' energy consumption can be obtained by raising the re- _ ~n the latter, the economic calculations suggest
- quired insulation standards, it wifl be much more expen- that selling the electricity should not pose major pro-
sive and tedious to achieve the same result in existing
houses and apartments. However, this is no less essen- blems assuming the price hypotheses given in the Gom-
tial, since for work costing on average less than 10,000 F mission's scenarios. It would simply be necessary to en- _
,1 sure that wastage +s avoided and especially to reduce
- per toe saved, a permanent reduction in consumption of the specific electricity consumption of domestic equip- _
4 million toe per year can be achieved in 1990. ment, and to encourage experimer~tation designed to
The fulfilment of such an objective implies that by the derive maximum benefit from the structure of electricity
end of the Vlllth plan 500,000 housing units should be Prad~ction in a system using nuclear energy (bi-energy
modified on these lines each year. To attain this result , devices, heat pumps).
10
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FIG.B : Prlx d'6quivaience du charbon et du fuel
Equirsle~nf prlces of coal and fusl oil ~
Pnx tlu Drui Priz tlu brul
FrT slbbl
Crude al pnce
Crude orl pnce S/bDl
F!i 3�jo BOf90 ~
- t990
- 5�io ~ 80~85 e~ 3'k � BS190
. ( I 5% BO/BS end 3% 85/90
: 1500 I I 50
Domame tavorabie
a I'uUhSaUOn Ou charbon
' I I -
Area lavourrng
coa~ use
, I I 40 -
- I I
1000 I I
I ~
I Domeine tavorable
A I'utilisation du fuel
I I Area favouring ,
Aeavy luel oi! use
_ I I ZQ
20Q 300 a00 ~QQ ~ Prix du char0on Coal priee
FlT GF /e Hevre
c~ , S!f�CIF � le Havre
$OU~Cf ~ c 0 IGE~
FIG.9 : Prlx reiaUt de I'electricite par rappor! au fuel lourd
_ (usages industriels)
Relatire price ol electricity for industry, compared
= to heary luel orl
~ 7 6,58 6.37
6
5 .
4 Accro~ssement du pr~r ree~
3.30 du Iuei 1�~a par anl
Aeal pnce ~ncrease ol
3 2 6t runl al f�% per yean _
; -
2'� 2.18
~ -
~
. i 2
' ~�'a 1,41 ~
i ~
1969 1973 1975 1980 1990 _
- Sowu M~~~~~e~e ae ~ ~~a~sn~~ -
~ Sow[e .~~~,fur b~ ~~~aus~~r
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- In Endustry, the difficulties are on quite a different ~
- scale : substituting electricity for fuel oil or gas implies
_ modifying processes, and sometimes devefoping new
technologies. There is thus more uncertainty here,
associated with the growth rate of the ~rench economy
and its ability to innovate. However the way its price is
' moving compared with that of heavy fuel oil is increasing
the relative advantage o( electricity.
5.Z. 8ut these drastic changeg ar~ absolutely necesr,ary
if Qll Is to be restricted rapldty to its specific uses
(iranspo~tation end petrxhemicala) and ii the recom-
- mended supply pollcy is to be achieved.
- TABLEAU - l.e bifan Energ~[ique 1979 (1/
TABLE 4. - The 1979 energy balence
Energie
_ , Charbon ~ PAtrole Gaz Hydraulique NuclAaire Energies secondaire
_ � nouvelles secondary TOTAL
_ Coa! ; Oil Ges Hydroelec. Nuclear New snergies
energies
I prod. cons.
i
_ tndustrie et sidArurgie ~ _ 2 2~ 5 63
Industry and steel making I 8,5 i 23 I ~2 - - -
R~sidentiel et tertiaire ~ 3 - 23 66
~ Residentiel and fertiary ~ 4 26 I 10 - -
Agriculture ~ _ _ _ _ 3
Ag~~culfure ' - 3 ( - -
I I
Transports i I _ _ ~,5 36,5
Transpo~tafion - 35 I I
Consommation tinale I
. I ` -
Fina! consumptron ; 12,5 i 87 ~ 22 I - 3 - 2 46 168,5
- Pr~Jucteurs ' ~ 2 5 12
Producers i 2,5 ~ 8,5 ~ - 1,5 - - - -
Centrales Alectriques ~ - ~p,5 - 7
Power plants 19,5 I 11,5 I 2 16 8,5 -
~ ( I -
Pertes ~ _
~ 7.5 { 0.5 - - - 4 6
Losses - ~
_ TOTAL 34,5 108,5 { 23 16 8,5 3 ~ 52,5 52,5 i 193,5
~1J Comprenenf 3 Mtep de ~ors en @nerq~es nouvelles fle teDleau 1 n'incluail pas le bois)
3 Mtoe ol wood incfuded rn "new energies"(not taken info accuunt in taDle 1).
12
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5.3. The cost per ton of aii sbved va~ies rery wEdely _
= depsnding on the method adopted or the sector in ques� 5.4. Redeplcyment w311 be expensive. The calculations
tfon : from 2,B00 F in industry to 30,000 F for solar made su~yest a figu~s close to 250 bfllion F by 1990, i.e.
- H~~tinQ. nearly ^5 biilion F per year, distributed as follows : -
- Industry 60 _
TABLE 6: The cost ol various redep/oyment actions - Residential and tertiary 160 _
- T.ransport ~ 5
Cos2 (in 1980 F7 Total 235
Action per ton -
of oil saved
Higher insulation standards -
in a new house 9,0o to ~0,000 F~. The macroeconomic implications of energy -
~edep{oyment
All-electric heating in a new house 11,400 ~
Insulating an existing house about 10,000 F 6.1. The economic c~lculations have enabled us to
classify the various means of energy redeployment and
Change to electric convectors in 31,000 F to estimete tha cost of the investment lt implies. Table 7
existing house, without extra gives the corresponding expenditure for 1980 and that _
insulation (1) planned for the duration of the Vlllth plan (1981�1985). If
= we add together the investment for production and that
Placing a bi-energy system in 13,400 F fe4uired for redeployment, we obtain a figure of nearly 85
an existing dwelling already billion F per year that must be invested in the next few
provided with a conventional boiler years. This is about 40 % up on the 1980 figure, and the _
structure of expenditure is significantly modified : _
Geothermal heating of a 5,000 to 8,000 F whereas at present only about 15 % is devoted to
major housing com~,iex redeployment, this proportion should be doubled in the
future.
Solar�heated domestic hot water 10,000 to 15,000 F
Solar space heating ~ ~pp F The sums needed are so large that it is tempting to
Energy savings in industry 2~gpp F t2~ make this mutation the vector for the "new growth" and
a considerable source of employment. This makes it
- desirable to examine with care the consequences of -
(1) leadin9 to excessive electncity consumption. @tl8fgy redeployment Ofl th8 COU~tfY~S ~~major
~2~ T~is Cost, calcul8~ed for 1980, increases oy 10 �io in constant money balances" : inflation, employment, foreign trade.
terms annually.
E~ut these diffierences and this price spread do not 6.2. The simulat~~ns carrfed out wlth the help of models .
- mean that the order of importance of the priorities can have given the Commission a fairly comprehensive an~
be established on this criterion only. Naturally, pra coherent picture of the macroecor~omic repercussions of
fitability must be sought in all cases, but considerations an energyseving policy. To sum up in a single sentence
- of sec~irity (ex. solar heat~ng) and independence may in- the ~mpression this gives : this is probably t~e best form '
(luence this. What is more, the difficulty and scale of the of expansi~nary policy possible, but no miracle exists by
~ energy redeployment needed and the inertia of the con� which some degradation of the foreign paymants ac-
sumption structures are such that no significant result count can be avoided. .
woutd be achieved, even by 199fl, if only one or two forms � The best form of expansionary policy possible. It
of action are !aken : energy policy must be diversified. To Without doubt perrnits best balance between growth
_ state the problem in simple terms, the time of easy sav- and equilibrium on foreign account, in so far as for the
- ing seems to be over. same amount of growth it has the least adverse effect an
the foreign balance. But this adverse effect is certainly
there.
13
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TABLE 5. - Les b~ians l990 darts detcr hypotheses de recu! du perro(e l!I
*hs ~990 energy balances. `or two nyporheses ol o~l regressron (11 =
~AR/A~`'TE .4 _
ALTERNATIVE A -
' I ~
i I i I I I ~ ElectncrtA i
Charoon I P9troie ; Gaz iHyarauiiquei Nucl2a~re~ Energies seconda~re TOTA~
~ ~ ~ ~ ' nouve~les I Saconda~y ~
, Coal f Oi! ~ Gas ; Hydroe/ec. ~ Nuclea~ ' New I electricrty I
i energ~es i
I ~ ~ i ; ~ prod. ~ cons.
~ i -
Industrie et sidArurgie i I . ~ i ; _
Industry and sfeel mak~ng ~ ~9 ~ 6 22 . - j - ~ ' 3 34 ! 79 ' _
~
RAsidentiei et tertlaire ' ~ ~ ~ ' ~
- Aesidential and tertrary ~ 5 ~ 7.5 18 � - j - 1 - 5~ ~ 88�5 ;
~ ' ' I =
i
- Agriculture ' ~ : i ' _ I a 1
, i ( ! i ~
' Agliculture - i 2 I ' ~ ! Z i I _
Transports f ~ ' ~
- Transportation ~ - s2.5 ~ - - i - ~ 2 i - 2 �