JPRS ID: 9349 WEST EUROPE REPORT

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• Collection: JPRS
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• Content Type: REPORTS

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M'()R Of~l~l('IAI. l1til~: UNLI'
JPRS L/9349
15 October 1980
West Euro e Re art
p p
EFOUO 40l80)
,
_ FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST lNFORMATION SERVICE
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLX
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JPRS L/3349
15 October 1980
WEST EUROPE REPORT
(FOUO 40/80)
CONTENTS
COUNTRY SEGTION
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
Citizens Surveyed on Civic Attitudes, Involvement
~CAPITAL, Sep 80) 1
FRANCE r-
Aging Population, Low Birthrate Seen ae Requiring
Serious Study
(Guy Durand; LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR, 22 Aug 80) 15
Prophylaxis Against Viral Hepatitis Described
(J. Demarchi, et al.; MEDICINE ET ARMEES,
i Aug-Sep 80) 19
, SPAIN
ETA (P-M) Terrorist Arsenal Includes French Weapons
(CAMBIO 16, 13 Jul 80) 34
Energy Plan Examined After lst Year, Some Shortcomings Seen
(CAMBIO 16, 10 Aug 80) 36
_ ~ _ [III - WE - 150 FOUO]
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COUNTRY SECTION FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
CITIZENS SURVEYED ON CIVIC ATTITUDES, II3VOLVEMENT
Hamburg CAPITAL in German Sep 80 pp 106-117
[Article: "Peace, Order, Cleanliness"]
[Text] Under Helmut Schmidt's government the FRG
has progressed like an efficient industrial enter-
prise. Citizens' attitudes have not kept up with
the progress. Peace is cons~dered the first civic
duty.
_ The Germans are proud of the political system of their state, which in
their opinion is democratic, effic~ent and liberal. But that is more
or less the extent of their interest in politics. The large ma~ority
votes and is silent--that is the result of the 1980 CAPITEIL survey,
which was conducted by the Mannheim political science professor Dr
Rudolf Wildenmann. What is the political perception of the average citi-
- zen according to this representative opinion poll? He sees himself,
whatever he means by it, in the center. He does not want to be on the
"left" or on the "right." Accordingly, his political attitude is lean-
ing toward forced restraint.
After all, he does not lean toward extreme views. Signing a petition,
_ perhaps e~~en joining a peaceful demonstration, is the highest expression
of his feelings. Wildcat strikes, occupying houses, clasheswith police--
all these things he rejects as violent means of pursuing political trends. -
He has little sympath}� for the small group of those who take part in
these things.
So much for his relationship to unconventional attitudes. And his con-
ventional attitude: He reads the political part of the newspaper and
perhaps he attends an election rally. But that is all.
This average citizen expects three th~.ngs from the state:
--peace and quiet f~r his personal environment;
--order. in society;
--cleanliness in the state.
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In ttiis country, citizenship is still interpreted as being obedient to
those ir~ government. From this point of view, public order is more
important than civil rights, laws must be ohserved even if one thinks
that they are unjust. The interest af the whole nation is the foremost
guideline for political actions, demands on the government by special
interest groups are detrimental.
For the German, the Basic Law is the best demo~ratic order imaginable.
He accepts Parliament as a controlling authority. In case the parlia-
mentary control should fail, he ascribes the function of an emergency
brake to the Federal Constitutional Court. There are few doubts about
the correctness of its decisions. On the other hand, appreciation for
the government opposition is rather limited: The opposition, according
to the FRG citizen, should not criticize the government but support its
work. Nevertheless, he does not want greater personal influence on govern-
ment decisions either.
He strongly disagrees with the statements made by politicians on decisive
current questions. For instance, he supports nuclear energy, he believes
that the terrorist laws have not restricted civil rights. And again:
Maintaining peace and order is the most important thing; it is more
important than fighting inflation or protecting the freedom of speech.
The Political System: Comfort '
According to the ways of thinking among leftwing Social Democrats, the
FRG is a capitalist class state. The criticism of leftwing liberals is:
The FRG is an authoritarian legalistic state. If that were so, the citi-
zen would have to regard the political system with reservation and be at
odds with the state of democracy.
Less than 5 percent of the Germans are indicating aversions of this kind.
In other words: The population is satisfied with the democratic system
as it was constructed in 1949 by the fathers of the constitution, 26 per-
cent are even very satisfied. From the outward appearance, this opinion
also signifies political timeliness. Germans see the economy in rosy
colors. In spite of 800,000 unemployed people, the labor market is con-
sidered to be in good shape. The German mark enjoys strong purchasing
power. Compared to foreign countries, the inflation rate is sensa-
tionally iow. Strikes? In this country they are a rarity. Political
violence? Restrained, so it seems. In the FR~ there is peace, or.der
and contentment.
It is equated with a productive system, as produced by its institutions
and the appreciable manner in which it benefits the individual. As was
already demonstrated by the 1978 CAPITAL survey--topic: The New Nation-
alism ot the Germans--the pride in this functioning system is distinct.
Since then it has become even more pronounced.
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In other words, comfort wherever one looks. The s[ate system provides
a feeling of wellbeing, Nevertheless, self-contentment is not identical
with democratic self-understanding. The maiority is inactive when it
comes to events; and it sounds almost like an apology when
--64 percent say that they have no influence on politics;
--70 percent state that their influence is limited to ballots;
--72 percEnt indicate that politics is too complicated;
--68 percent feel tha~ politicians do not pay attention to "little
people."
Incidentally: A relatively large minority, however, is of the opinion
that it does have an influence on politics. This minority is also indi-
cating involvement in parties, in labor unions, in citizens initiatives.
It is also the reason why the interest in politics has generally grown
during the last decade. Nevertheless, amonp, the majority it is still
considerably ~inderdeveloped. To put it into words: As long as "those
up there" are taking rare of things, we will be more or less satisfied.
Ta formulate it cynically: Stockholders trust the board of directors
as long as the enterprise is flourishing; they go to the general meeting
r~ot to debate or to oppose but to reelect the administration.
In the same ms.nner, 60 percent of the citizens are giving evidence of
their confidence in the current government. Helmut Schmidt will take
care of it: He is looked upon as the chancellor who can manage the
, economic future and handle crises. Al1 that matters is order, all that
matters is peace, even in foreign policy, Crises in the world, for
instance, Afghanistan or Iran, are seen as a threat--to their own well-
being. Because the more tt?ere is to lose, the more the possible loss is
felt, And in the meantime, FRG citizens have a lot to lose--the pride
in what they have is proof. Consequently, it is no surprise that during
the 1980 e.'~ection year quest{ons concerning foreign policy are rated
according r~ the following point of view: How do we get through this
crisis ui:aarmed? It is so pervasive that even the danger of inflation,
for many decades a topic among Ge~ans, is now considered less important.
The conspicuous contentment cannot cover up the fact that there is a
~eneral lack of understanding for the system. The democracy is in good
shape as long as the economy moves ahead: It must be a disturbing idea
to think what might happen if the development moves in a different
direction. At any rate, to date the safety valve has functioned:
Governments that did not come up to expectations were voted out of
office. Such a desire is currently not noticeable. Konrad Adenauer's
classical slogan is timely: No experiments.
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Loyalty to System
Question: Are you satisfied with the political system and the state of
democracy in the FRG?
1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1972
Very satisfied
26.0 21.0 19.5 17.6 19.2 20.6
Satisfied
69.2 71.7 72.2 72.8 70.7 72.6
Dissatisfied
4.g 7,3 8.3 9.6 10.1 6.8
Data given in percentages. Standard values.
Political Self-Assessment: Center Fteld
The citizen is satisfied with the democratic s~stem, which in his opinion
is liberal, almost too liberal, and efficient economically. Accordingly,
he also shows no inclination toward political radicalism. He represents,
whatever he means by it, the center. He does not want to be on the "left"
or the "right"--according to the slogans that have come into use, symboliz-
ing political stands and which are used by politicians of all colors to
battle one another.
In the analysis, what is "left" and what is "right"? It is a measure of
self-assessments, which represent a mixture of emotions and ideas remin-
is~ent of the philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer: First of all, everybody
is what he thinks he is. And then: What others th~.nk of him. Whoever
is asked about his political stand, indicates the intention of what one
should be and the idea of what one is: In the FRG upper-middle class with
slight variations.
An equally large number of voters, 36 percent, consider'themselves "left
of center" or "right of center." They are flanked by two wings, 10 per-
cent who profess to be "leftists" and 18 percent who profess to be
"rightists." The right wing is traditionally stronger. Altogether,
this self-assessment has shown a slight but cleaxly visible shift to the
right.
Among party supporters, the differences are more striking. Eleven per-
cent of Union voters classify themselves as "left of center," 51 percent
as "right of center" and 35 percent as "on the right." According ~o these
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attitudes, the Unior. seems to be in the minority as far as the center is
concerned, because almost all of the supporters of the coalition parties--
the SPD and the FDP--consider themselves as belonging "left" as well as
"right" of center. Extreme self-assessments among these people play a~
insignificant role.
Consequently, the Bundestag election is a battle for the center. If one
wants to win elections, it is not enough to seel~. support among fringe
groups if one fails to hold on to the center.
Using this spectrum for placing the candidates for the chancellorship,
Helmut Schmidt and Franz Josef Strauss--as persons who are what others
think they are; Then it becomes evident that Schmidt is placed in the
"center" and St~auss on the "right." FDP voters are much farther removed
from the Union candidate than many SPD voters are. The election state-
ment which makes r?ention of a coalition with Strauss is therefore beyond
any reality. The punishment would be a considerable loss of voters.
The f igures on the right and on the left indicate that the polarization
among party supporters is more or less marginal. Purely on a theoretical
basis, a distinct "~~ightwing party" might count on a voter potential of
20 percent and a distinct "leftwing party" on a voter potential of 10
percent. rhere have already been frequent speculations about theories of
this kind: Might a split of the Union into a"rightwing" CSU and a"right
of center" oriented CDU increase the chance ef an election victory? In -
view of the political stand of the population, these are risky specula-
tions. As long as the SPD is not drifting to the left, such a split
could take away ~~otes from the center of the Union and add them to the
present coalition. And in addition: It would destroy the unity of. the
- iJnion and, along with it, split up the party system which has proven ~
itself as a fundamental accomplishmen*_ of the democratic system in
Germany.
The FDP, still undecided, cartnot enter into a coalition with Strauss and
also not with the Union as long as its position is leaning to the
"right," If the Union would present itself as a more moderate center
party in the future, there might be a possibility, as happened in 1974
under Helmut Kohl, of achieving a majority; at least, the liberals would
consider it "acceptable for a coalition."
Such a change in attitude would certainlq be necessary in the interest
of democracy. There is very little appreciation among the people for an
opposition that operates by ultimatum, whoever may be doing it. It is
seen as a lot of "noise," and the voters have become indifferent to it:
Criticism, even justified criticism, is not taken seriously.
Consequently, the government has not been locked in by the opposition, no
more than by the coalition parties.
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- - L
This factor and the self-satisfaction of the citizen represent a dangerous
situation. A constitutional consensus exists, but it is only a form of
conformity and conservatism: a"state conservatism" in a new form. It
looks as if the 19th century is catching up with us and a government led
by Social Democrats.
Choice of Position
Question: Political positio�~ts are labeled as progressive or conservative,
as left or right. Where would you place yourself?
Left Left of center Right of Center Right
All voters
9.6 36.5 36.3 17.6
SPD voters
15.4 52.~~ 25.2 6.5
Union voters
1.3 J.1.1 51.7 35.9
FDP voters
2.5 58.4 35.0 4.1
Voters of other parties
40.0 47.2 12.8 0.0
Data glven in percentages.
Basic Democratic Positions: Loyalty to State
The contrast i~ glaring: Under the Schmidt government the FRG developed
like a well-managed industrial plant; economically it is more efficient
than ever. Citizenship has not made as much progress. In this country
it is essentially still understood as being obedient. ThP attitude
toward the "board of directors" is almost noncriCical.
Actuallyr it should hardly be expected and yet it is so: The popula-
tion's faith in the government is stronger today than it was at the time -
of Konrad Adenauer. To be sure, Parliament is fully recognized as the
~ontrolling authority. But ci-iticism is not part of this ideal picture:
The opposition should not "complain," but it should support the govern-
~ ment. From this viewpoint, public order is more important than civil
rights, compliance iF the first duty of the citizen.
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5uch an opinion impltes that laws must be kept even when they are thought
to be unjiist. Such an opinion reflects the view that demands on the
- government by special interest greups damage the public welfare,
Basic positions of this kind are equally dominant among supporte~s of
- both candidates for the chancellorship and produce rhe same reactions: _
Whoever complains, falls into disfavor. No wondPr that such a noncritical
attitude among the rather critical young generation of voters is inter-
preted as "threatening."
The democratic understanding, based on the constitution, shows clear
contours. Accordingly, the opposition is the possible government of
tomorrow, minorities must be respected and protected, conf licts are to
be settled openly, freedom of speech must prevail. According to the
verdict by voters, that is the way it has ~o be. Naturally, the constitu-
tion is the b~st conceivable order. But within the framework of the c~~n-
stitution, everything has to be "orderly," please: If there have to be
discussions, there should be as few as possible, and above all no "agru-
ments."
Considering this faith in the government, the reputation which is enjoyed -
by the Constitutional Court is almost conclusive. The highest court is
seen as the protector of the constitution, an attitude which is almost
indisput~ible. In spite of criticism of individual verdicts--most of the
time it is vuiced only by those who are affected anyway--its decisions are
sacrosanct. This competency does not only apply to legal questions;
increasingly and without hesitation, judges are permitted to make impor-
tant political decisions as well.
As far as the relationship between the government and the Constitutional
Court is concerned, the following applies: It is hoped that nothing will
happen; but if the government makes a mistake, it is up to the judges
to keep it in line, The question remains, who is going to control the
"controllers" in Karlsruhe? The answer is given by the question itself:
The population is satisfied with a symbolic confidence in the highest
German court, which is entrusted with more and more important political
decisions.
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Constraint by System
Question: Do you All voters Schmidt Strauss
agree with these supporters supporters
opinions? Yes No Yes No Yes No
Our Bundestag is 85 15 88 12 84 16
dcing everything
to control the
government effec-
tively.
Task of the oppo- 70 30 71 29 67 33
sition is not to
criticize the gov-
ernment but to
support 'it. ~
Our constitution 96 4 97 3 95 5
is still the best
conceivable order. -
One should comply 87 13 87 13 90 10
with the laws even
when c~ne feels
that they are
unjust.
If Bonn acts against 85 15 85 15 87 13 ~
the Constitution,
the Constitutional
Court will prevent it.
The interests of the 93 7 93 ~ 92 8
entire people should
always take prece-
dence over individual
- special interests.
Demands by special 67 33 67 33 68 32 _
interest groups dam-
age the general wel-
fare.
If public order is 73 27 69 31 78 22
endangered, the
citizen loses h is
right to strikes and
.
demonstrations.
Data are given in pprcentages.
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�
On Political Attitudes: Forced Resr_raint r
What is the state of the political consciousness in the FRG? It can be l
measured by questioning the citizen about his attitude ~oward conventional `
conduct, f~r instance, attendance of election rallies, and unconventional
conduct, for instance, participation in wildcat strikes.
The results are a~ follows: Conventional conduct is weil distributed,
unconventional conduct is almost r~onexistent. In Germany, democratic
attitudes represent forced restraint.
When it comes to attitudes, f ive real types can be distingujshed; they
were first modeled by Prof Edward Muller, Tucson, and Prof Ur Max Kasse,
Mannheim. The profiles of these prototypes are very dlfferent from one
another, and the size of the groups representing each ~ype has remained
relatively constant for a long time.
More than one-fourth of the votera are "inactive," They are farthest
rem~ved from all politics, conventional as well as unconventional. They
are only minimally informed. If they decide to do something "political,"
at best it is signing a petition, most of the time only when it is in
their own interest. Nevertheless, they carry political weight, because
during elections they bring in the bulk of the votes, benefiting the
Unian more than the coalition.
Approximately 5 percent of the population, partly from the circle of the
"protesters" and partly from the circle of the "activists," are willing
to engage in violent actions for the sake of politics: Measured by
events in foreign countries, it is an insignificant minority.
"Conformists," 21 pereent of all the voters, show a lively interest in
politics. They are well-informed, are active in a conventional manner
but inactive in unconventional ways; they go as far as signing petitions.
"Reformers," 21 percent of all voters, are different: Like "conformiats"
they are interested but they go a step further; ~n occasion they are
' willing to demonstrate peacefully,
The "protesters," 17 percent of a11 voters, are a peculiar category, They
dislike spending the time necessary for arriving at a factually oriented
decision, They are saving the effort and prefer to demonstrate right
~ away. It appears that they ar~ more comfortable in "crowds" than during
critical discussions: This behavior type is frequen~ly represented in
citizens initiatives.
This attitude definitely contradicts the image of the ideal citizen. To
be sure, protesters do not want to do without active paxticipation in
politics, but they prefer to act rather than being confused through
information. ~
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Finally: The "activists," approximately 15 percent of the voters. Alto-
gether, they are very well informed and ready for action. They have the
most highly developed political consciousness, and they are the member
reserves for the parties.
Question: How d:; you lnf orm yourself politically and in what political
a~~:ions woiild you participate? -
I
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Key:
1. Types of conduct a. Read the paper
2. Activists b. Discuss things with friends
3. Protesters c. Attend election rallies
4. Reformers d, Support politicians
S. Conformists e. Sign petitions
6. Inactivists f. Demonstrate
7. Typology according to activity g. Take part in political strikes
with regard to information
and action.
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On Basic Political Question: Stand
What politicians say and what voters think are two different things,
particularly with regard to those basic questions that affect the citi-
zen directly. He is not able to perceive doubt and skepticism when his
own personal environment is concerned--it is almost already a security
complex.
The most important thing to the citizen is the maintenance of peace and
order in the country. It has a much higher priority than, for instance,
the figl'lt against inflation or the protection of freedom of speech.
Accordingly, a clear majority is of the opinion i;hat the terrorist laws
do :~ot at all restrict civil rights too much; only 10 percent feel that
they are a threat to the constitutional state.
At first glance it seems frightening that 50 percent of the voters want
the death penalty for terrorists. w11en looking at it more closely, it
becomes apparent that there has been some "progress": 10 years ago, as
- many as 2/3 of the population were still in favor of the comeback of the
guillotine.
In keeping with the thought of security is also the fact that the Federal
Government ought to play a larger role in managing the economy. Almost
60 percent of the voters are in favor of it--but only for the benefit of
the individual and not in the sense of nationalization. Just as much,
nuclear energy is seen as security--providing for the future in energy
policies. Only 5 percent ef the population are opponents of nuclear
energy .
The state may interfere in the personal environment of the citizen wher-
ever it is to his advantage but not where his privacy is to be preserved.
A clear majority, more than 80 percent, is in favor of letting womendif-
make their own decisions concerning an abortion. In this question,
ferences in party policies became apparent. A rejectj.on of this opinion
can be found more frequently among Union supporters than among supporters
of the coalition parties. Nevertheless, only one-f ifth of all Union
voters is registering an opposing viewpoint in this matter. It is an
indication that there is a strong desirefor self-determination in the
private domain. In this area the following o?~inion is prevelant:
Freedom of movement, whatever its interpretation, is more important than
anyth ing.
Opinions of this kind are more than simple ritual answers to certain prob-
lem areas. Naturally, it is the reaction to values which touch the cen-
tral interests in life or even reach into the depth of the soul. But
the priority that is accorded to these problems rounds out the picture
of orientation and attitude of the 1980 voters: They produce, they con-
sume, they go on vacation, on the who?e they are satisfied and--leave
politics to the parties and the government. Whenever "politics" is
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protecting and preserving the everyday life, as it happens to be at any
given time, it is welcome; beyond that it enjoys only moderate interest.
Certainly not a"state of night-*.aatchmen" but also not a vital democracy.
Nevertheless--this is also a privilige of the FRG constitutional order,
In contrast to other places, there is no obligation to participate in
politics. The citizen has the freedom co remain aloof.
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,,..L~
Concept of Order
Question: Do you agree with Moetly Mostly Disagree
A ree aRree disagree Disagree
these opinions?
Development of nu- 5
clear energy should Schmidt supporters 41 38 16
be continued to 3
guarantee our future Strauss supporters 59 30 8
energy supply.
The government should Schmidt supporters 17 41 32 10 ~
play a larger role in
managing the economy. Strauss supporters 20 32 29 19
Women should be able 6
to make their own Schmidt supporters 58 26 10
decisions on an 20
abortion. Strauss supporters 40 23 17
Because of terrorists, 24
- civil rights in Ger- Schmidt supporters 10 28 38
many have been re-
stricted too much. Strauss supporters 11 25 32 32 ~
Question: In your opinion, lst 2nd 3rd 4th
how urgent are these problems? choice choice choice ch~ice
Schmidt su orters 42 24 15 19
Maintenance of pP
peace and order 8
in this country. Strauss supporters 57 25 10
~ 13
The fight against Schmidt supporters 28 32 24 11
rising prices. Strauss supporters 29 36
31
Protection of the Schmidt supporters 20 20 29
right to fre~ speech. Strauss supporters 7 20 33 40
Schmidt su orters 10 24 29 37
More influence by PP
citizens on govern- 41
ment decisions. Strauss supporter.s 7 19 33 _
Data given in percentages. !
COPYRIGHT: 1980 Grunar & Jahr AG & Co
8991
CSO: 3103
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COUNTRY SECTION FRANCE
AGING POPULATION, LOW BIRTHRATE SEEN AS REQUIRING SERIOUS STUDY
,
Paris LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR in French 22 Aug 80 p 21
[Article by Guy Durand, economics professor: "Population:
the Blind Lef t" ]
[Text] For the fifth consecutive year, the popula~tion growth
has not reached generation-replacement levels. But this issue
has still not bec~me tfie topic of a major national debate. It
only crops up in discussions on abortion. A problem and a tra-
dition lie behind this lack of interest. The problem is rela-
ted to the fact that population trends are imperceptible chan-
ges which are most often noticed on~y when the situation has
passed beyond the point of recovery. The tradition involved,
a tradition of the left, is even more serious: the progres-
sives are not interested in demography. So they abandon the
subject to people for whom it is only a pretext for speeches
on power or for moralizing sermons. It is essential that th.e
left include the following facts in its thinking.
The French population has not reached replacement lEVels since
1974. To replace itself 100 women would have to give birth to
210 children. This figure, larger than 200 (two parents, two
children), is based on the percentage of boys and girls bo?-n ~
(105 boys to 100 girls), and on the rates ~f female mortality -
from birth to menopause. Even if female mortality were eli-
minated, it would sti11 take 205 children born to 100 women
for the generations to be replaced. Now, 100 women give
birth to only 183 children. In these conditions, the decline
in population and tfie pronounced aging of the population will
be the determinants of our future. This long-term trend has
escaped the attention of most of our contemporaries, because
it is masked by two deceptive appearances.
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rOLt Ol~ FTC LAL US~: ONLY
1. The increase i:i th~ tot~l number of the population by
0.3 percent in 1975. T~ith 1.8 child produced per woman, this
slow growth would continue until about the year 2C00, because
of the mechanical inertia of the population and because the
large numbers of women born after the war would be in their
fertile years. Startinq by the year 2000, though, we would
find a slow decline, with the present ~opulation level being
reached by about 2030. But within this population, the pro-
portion of people over 65 would be 19.5 percent, instead of
14 percent, as it is today. The slight present population
growth, an apparent sign of good health, has caused some con-
fusion between the overall increase in the number of French
people and the replacer~nent of generations. Our population is
like a lump of coal wfiich is being consumed from w~thin:
while for the ti~me being it keeps its volume ii~tact, it will
begin to crumble ali ~-~t once.
2. A slight youthful trend in the composition of the
population since the smaller generations born between 19J.5 _
and 1919 are now reaching retirement age. This younger trend
is a very temporary phenomenon. The number of births in 1979
(750,000) i:s siigfitly fiigfier than the number of births in I
1978 (.736,OQQ~ and in 1977 (~745,000), but these are only very
relative fluctuations�, witfiout any significance. In reality,
France is now~moving into a situation with low birthrates and
an aging population. Announcing an improvement in this situ-
ation is Quite foolisfi, given the loc~ levels to which we
have fallen: the lowest in tne history of the French popula-
tion in peacetime.
We are now going through the euphoric phase of the lowered ?
birthrate. The annual savings in the budget [because of
the low birthrate.] are estimated at 6 billion francs (accard-
ing to J.-C. Chesnais of the INED [National Institute of
Demographic Studies?]). These savings come from the decrease
in allotments paid for births, from the reduced family allot-
ments because large families with three or more children have
almost di~appeared, not to mention the schools that don't have
to be buiLt, etc. The money thus being saved is not being
used to prepare for our future ].ean years, though; it is being
wasted, burned up in the gasoline ~hanks of our cars. So the
future is being deliberately sacrificed to the present.
This is a classic attitude, but a very serious one. Our
future is now being written, year by year, in our birth re-
cords. Many reforms wi:ll be hindered or made impossible be-
cause of the lack of children. Children are now treated
as undesirable and considered to be recruits for the future
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ranks of the unemployed, whil~ in reality, they will he the
producers of our wealth tomorrow~.
This situati~on leads to two particularly painful consequen-
ces. In tfie first place, tlie problem of being able to pay
retirement pensions, for while wealth is distributed betwEen
social classes, it also fias a dimension in time; it is dis-
trit~uted between generations, whicfi are paired tc~gether, In _
a more general way, all of our social systems (5ocial security,
unemployment insurance) are baseci on ties between generations.
In the second place, as tfiere are fewer and fewer of us, we
will also be older and very poorly distributed throughout our
national territory. Entire regions, which were once inhabi-
ted, will be left like ghost towns. Not to mention the so-
cial frustrations in~volved, tfiese ghost tow:is will demand
huge financial burdens to maintain structures which are now
too costly, but wfiicfi are essential for those still left in
the area.
Politically, it is tfie right in power which will have benefited
i~om the good times of tfie lowered birth rate, and when the
left is in power--it will have to get there one day--its
planned reforms will be blocked by today's lack of concern
and lack of courage. Our present good times will turn out
to be very expensive.
Based on these facts, reactions may naturally differ. It is
paradoxical but ~rne tfiat while almost everyone agrees about
the objective of~maintaining a generation-replacement level,
no one will openly dare to admit a pro-natalist position.
This timidity fias caused serious harm. The conservatives ad-
vance moralistic explanations for tfie decline in the birth-
xate, but propose strictly financial solutions. And inverse-
ly, the lsft advances material problems but proposes very
vague solutions of the "change in society" type.
The oppos~tion between pro-natalists and ar~ti-natalists should
not be viewed in strictly black and white terms. About
200,000 third children are born, and it ~aould take 60,000 to
70,000 more children to replace our generations. So, to
remedy this, those families who decide not to have a third
child because there are too~many problems in their way could
be given special aid to meet this minimum level. One way
might be to take advantage of the job crisis to lengthen
parental leaves at :~he t1:r~~ qf ~the "birth of a third child.
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In our ~rantic race to "ch~nge li~e," wouldn't it be wise
not to forget life itself? If the avant-garde will not look �
to the futnre, wiia will? Let's study this issue seriously,
and remember that, ~nlike a~~1an, a population can grow
your~ger, if we really and truly want that to happen.
COPYRIGHT: LE NOII~EL OBSERVATEI3R, 1980
7679 -
CSO: 3100
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FRANCE
COUNTRY SECTION
PROPHYLAXIS AGAINST VIRAL HEPATITIS DESCRIBED
Paris I~DECINE ET ARI~ES in French Aug-Sep 80 pp 495-502
[Article by: J. Demarchi, M.D., inspector, technical inspector of inedical
services, hygiene and epidemiology; C.Laverdant,M.D., chief of services, in-
structor at Val-de-Grace; J. Dutertre, chief of staff, chief of the epidem-
iology section, central administration of the Army Health Service; J. Hainaut, -
, chief of staff, biologist to the hospitals, chief of the immunology-hemostasis
service, Army Blood Transfusion Center: "Prophyla~cis Against Type A Viral
Hepatitis by Means of Polyvalent Immunoglobulins: Results Obtained in the
Armies"J
[Text] We present here the results of a joint project
that could not have been accomplished without the partic-
ipation of a large part of the Army Health Service--in the
administrative and supply branches as well as in the struc-
tures of the Service included in the units in France or in
the field.
The use of immunoglobulins in prophylaxis of type A viral hepatitis dates from
1945, when Neefe and Stokes (8) reported on their effectiveness, and found it
compatible with the development--under cover of the immunoglobulins--of an ac-
tive immunization. Since then many studies have confirmed this point of view.
gut an attempt at gamma globulin prophylaxis carried out in 1957 in 128,000
soldiers called up to serve in Algeria ended in failure. According to Hamon,
Darbon and Colobert (S-2), who reported on its results, protection was mani-
fested only during the first three months following the injection; past that
period of time the number of clinical hepatitis cases was revealed to be high-
er, compressed by a cumulative effect, though it was slowed in relation to the
usual peak of the seasonal prevalence curb.
A second trial, undertaken in Chad in 1970-1971 with 365 randomly distributed
subjects showed the effectiveness of specific prevention during the first
three months, whereas beyond that time morbidity was the same in the
Key words: A viral hepatitis; polyvalent gamma globulins; globulin prophylaxis;
controlled trial.
Reprir.ts available from: J. Demarchi, inspection technique des services medi-
caux, d'hygiene et d'e~sidemiologie, 1, place A. I.averan 75005 Paris.
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"prophylactized" groups and the control groups.
In the meantime, however, our American army colleagues in 1967 and 1969 con-
ducted a trial with 107,803 soldiers stationed in Korea, and concluded that
the administration of 5 milliliters of standard 16.5-per-100 gamma globulin
contributed a passive protection for approximately six months, reducing by
nearly 50 per 100 the morbidity from v=r~l hepatitis in ~he total number
treated in relation to the group receiving a placebo onl~� (1).
The occurrence of many cases of type A viral hepatitis among French troops
engaged in actions abroad in 1978 encouraged us to repeat similar attempts i.o
achieve passive prophylaxis. Two trials were undertaken, under different con-
ditions corresponding to operational imperatives, one in Lebanon with the re-
lief contingent of troops put at the disPosal of the UN Interim Forces in
Lebanon (UNIFIL) , the other in Chad.
1. Lebanon
It was in March 1978 that the French government decided to put at the disposal
of the UN a detachment of approximately 1,300 men to participate in operations
to control the cease-fire that had taken place between the belligerents in ;
Lebanon.
ountr where durin the winter of 1939- I
Viral hepatitis is not rare in that c y, 8
- 1940 Gaguiere (4) had described an epidemic affecting 54 French solders in a
camp occupied by 1,200 men.
In the detachment that arrived on 23 March 1978, cases of A viral hepatitis
appeared, beginning the 15th week of their stay, in a sporadic fashion that
became epidemic after the 19th week, the number of cases reaching 10 to 12
per week. Among these personnel cases were observed until the 35th week af-
ter the beginning of the operation, that is to say, for the last cases, after
their return to France (figure 1), A total of 99 cases being established in
this population of 1,282 men, morbidity was 77 in 1,000, a significant value
if one compares it to the highest prevalence observed up to that point, which
concerned American troops in the Pacific in 1945: 45.9 in 1,000.
The entire first detachment was relieved in late September 1978. The employ-
ment conditions of the units providing the relief having to be almost identi-
cal, we proposed tha~ before exposing the men who made up the units to such a
risk, they receive a passive prophylaxis by immunoglobulins, following a
"double blind" comparative method likely to answer that first question: Does
_ standard gamma globulin prepared by the Army Blood Transfusion Center protect
against the appearance of type A viral hepatitis?
A. Equipment and Methods
The list of names of the 1,273 personnel of various units designated to
participate in the relief was established and the names distributed at
random into three groups, A, B and C, using a randomized numbers table
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('Table I). The Chi-square: 1,202 for 10 degrees of freedom, shows
tllat the homogene:~ty of the randomization was irreproachable.
ME?~TITE! VIII~L!{ ?U LI/AN
N. IIEV1111TITIOM N!/OOY~DAiII[ D!f C~3
10
, (3~
~ .
1 I 1 I 2i 77 23 7 2 I ~ ~[Y.
~ JUI 1 ~OU~ 1 ~L/T. I OCT. 1 NOY.
� ~r.,,., (10) ~6) ~8
' .
� 7 ~ Y ^ I}~ 13 IT lt ~I
2~~tY. (1 )
' 6~.,.,...,. , (3)
, ,
. e io u is ~ ii~'f[r. ~1 ~
Flgure n� 1.
Figure No 1.
Key:
1. Viral hepatitis in Lebanon 8. October
- 2. Weekly distribution of cases 9. November
3. First detachme~,t 10. Controls: 215 subjects
4. 23 March 78 11. Week
5. July
6. August
7. September
Simultaneously, in a laboratory safe from any indiscretion, the Army Blood
Transfusion Center was preparing solutions of various globulins in flasks la-
beled A, B or C. These solutions were blindly subjected to titration.s of
anti HAV [type A viral hepatitis] specific antibodies by a radio-immunologic
method (Havab-Abbott) carried out by another laboratory.
Solution A contains 165 mg per milliliter of polyvalent immunoglobulin pre-
pared by the CTSA [Army Blood Transfusion Center]. The titers of anti HAV anti-~
bodies (expressed in dilution) of the samples drawn vary between 512 and
2,048, or a geometric mean of 1,024 (m = 6.93; s+ 0.49).
Solution B contains 165 mg per milliliter of standard gamma globulin prepared
by the Lille Transfusion Center. The anti HAV titers vary between 256 and .
1,024: geometric mean of 512 (m = 6.24; s= 0.49).
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TABLE I
Groups Total
Units
q g C
No 1 311 308 124 743
No 2 34 35 13 82
No 3 53 56 22 131
No 4 50 56 25 131
No S 49 50 21 120
Miscel-
laneous 29 27 10 66
Total 526 532 215 1,273
Solution C contains no globulin and is without biologic activity.
� The difference in the titers of lo~ts A and B is not significant ( t= 2.24 for
8 ddl [degrees of freedomJ).
Before his departur e each subject received an intramuscular injection of the ~
solution corresponding to the group assigned to him. Departures were spread
between 22 September and 24 October 1978. In the third month of the tour
(from 22'December 1978 to 24 January 1979), each received a new injection of
5 milliliters of solution from the same lot that had been administer~d to him
on his departure from France. The return home o~ this second detachment was
carried out echelon by echelon between 23 March and the end of April 1979, and
the personnel concerned were followed medically after their return to France as
well. as during their stay in Lebanon.
B. Results
Sixteen cases of type A viral hepatitis appeared in this second detac}unent.
No cases were observed among the subjects having received the globulin from
lot A.
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One case was confirmed (in the sixth week of the stay) in a subject having
received solution B.
Fifteen cases were recorded among personnel having received injections from
lot C. These cases appeared between the sixth and 18th week of their stay
(figure 1).
TABLE II
p + B C Total
Yes 1 15 16
Sick
No 1057 200 1257
Total 1058 215~ 1273
C. Discussion `
We have seen that the average titers of solutions A and B were not significant-
ly different from each other. Groups A and B, whose total numbers are practi-
cally equal and in which only a single case is observed, can therefore be com-
bined in a single group, group A+ B, which we will compare with group C, con-
sidered a "control" group.
All other conditions--individual sensitivity, individual or collective hy-
giene, exposure to the risk of infection, age, fatigue, etc.--being evenly
distributed because of the random division of the individuals between these
groups, only one difference (systematically introduced) bet;veen these subjects
remains: injection of polyvalent immunoglobulin in the subjects in group
A + B.
The smallest group includes the most subjects who are'sick. The Fisher test
shows that the distribution observed can only be attributed to chance once in
50,000,000,000 times (p = 2 x 10'll), which attests to the reality of the pro-
phylactic action of the immunoglobulin.
In group C the incidence of viral hepatitis is 15/215 = 0.0698, or approximate- -
ly 7 in 100, comparable to that which crippled the whole first detachment (a
non-significant difference, with chi-square + 0.145).
Ir, the A+ B group this incidence is belo~a 1 in 1,000 (0.0009). Comparison
can be made by the ratzo 0.0698/0.009 = 73.88, that is to say the administra-
tion of immunoglobul~n diminishes the incidence of epidemic hepatitis in the
proportion of 74 to 1.
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Comparison by clifference:
O.UG98 0.0009 = U.0689
shows that of the 1,058 subjects having received the A or ~ globulin,
1,057 x U.0689 = 73 cases of hepat~tis have been prevented, which would have
had to occur if they had received an injection of the placebo solution only.
'Chus, one may answer the c{uestion pos~cl affirmatively and conclude that under
the described conditions the administration of polyvalent inununoglobulin, ti-
trated in anti fIAV specific antibodies, exercised a protective action against
the clinical appearance of cases of hepatitis in the exposed subjects.
II. Chad
Unlike the centrolled trial we have just described, the preventive action con-
clucted with our troops in Chad represents merely an "observation situation."
Beginning in February 1978 France ins~alle.a active troops in that country
amounting to approximately 2,000 men.
A number of cases of type A viral hepatitis were manifested among these troops
also, w}io were installed in a hyper-endemic region, as attested to by observa-
tions made on the Chadian national army in wr~ich cases appeared throughout the
year, without a seasonal character. '
No overall relief of the units engaged in that operation could be envisaged,
which ruled out recourse to the methodology employed with regard to the troops
sent to Lebanon.
On the other hand, while studies on the immunoglobulin preparect by the CTSA had
just recently shown us their anti HAV antibody content, psychological rea-
sons prompted us to undertake a preventive action with these globulins in
these personnel. In fact we then posed as a basic hypothesis that a potential
preventive action of the administration of polyvalent immunoglobulin was link-
ed to the presence in this globulin of anti HAV antibodies.
For this reason we were proposing to undertake such an action by studying the
immunologic status of the population submitted to this prophylaxis against
hepatitis viruses and by following the incidental distribution of the person-
nel into three groups: those who had received no prophylactic injection be-
fore or during their stay in Chad (t.he control group); those who would receive
the injection even though their stay in the endemic territory had already
covered a more or less long period of time; lastly, those who would receive
the injection before their embarkation or on the day of their arrival in Chad,
thus before exposure to the risk of contamination.
A mobile team was sent there to draw a ti~enous sample from all the soldiers
participating in the operation for study of the serum antibodies, and then to
administer an intramuscular injection of 5 milliliters of 165 mg/milliliter
standard gamma globulin from the CTSA.
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B~ginning on the same date, all personnel assigned in France to go and take
part in tl~is operation submitted to }iaving blood drawn and received an identi-
cal injection, and all subjects rettirning home at the end of their stay were
compelled to submit to the drawing of blood.
'I'hc mobile team's intervention began on 21 October 1978. As it was the hope
t}iat the administxation of globulin to subjects either ir, incubation or ex-
posed to the risk in those active centers where 321 cases had been recorded
(figur~ 2), would eventually mitigate the incidence of clinical cases, the
mission was compared to a pumping actior~ flooding the periphery of the fire,
to limit its expansion.
N[/~TITCi VIIIAII� ~U TCM~p (1)
, ~6
~3)
~o n'
~
�
.
,
I AY. I Y~1 1 JU. 1 JUI. 1?OVTI ~I?. 1 OCT. 1 NOV. I OIC.I J~N. 1 flY. I N~. I
~.r' ~ .
~0~4) (5) (6} (7) (8) (9) (10)
s ~
i?Y. 1 Y~I I JU. 1 JUI. 1 bl/TI I OCT. I MOV. I D[C.I
~4) ~5) ~~t~~ (11)
~l~~~t1T10M N[lOOY11D~IIIC D!S C~�
Figure No 2.
Key:
1. Viral Hepatitis in Chad 7. July
2. Beginning of operation g, August
3. Beginning of injections g, February
4. April 10. March
5. May 11. Weekly Distribution of Cases
6. June
Between 21 October and S November 1,945 persons underwent withdrawal of b"lood
on the premises and received an injection of globulin. Afterwards, despite
the difficulties inlierent in the mobility o� the personnel, the drawing of
blood and giving of injections was continued, first under the health service
of the local detachment and later, after 20 December 1978, under the health
service of the troop units stationed in France from which personnel were sent
to take part in this operation.
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A, kesults
'1'he hepatitis ~ases grouped by ten-~lay periods a~corcliiig to tlio clate they ap-
peared clinically, are represented in figure 3.
inclicatecl in white are the cases occurring i~? non-"prophylactized" subjects;
in hatching, cases observed in subjects having received the polyvalent globu-
lin injec~:ion in the course of ti1~~?' s~ay in the endemic territory; in dots,
those who had been protected before their departure.
�(~~TIfE [~~oe~iout o~ws ~t~ reouret �u reN+o~~~
p~/fllll1:110N CMI10NOlOG10U[ 0!S C~f 0~1~~~~5
' (Z~ o .
C3) ~
(4)
~
E ? "
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
. 12 ~ 13
Figure n� 3.
Pigure No 3.
Key:
1. Hepatitis epidemic in troops in Chad: chronological distribu-
tion of cases observed
2. A case without seropropnylaxis
3. A case with seroprophylaxis on location
4. A case with seroprophylaxis before exposure
5. May 10. March
6. June 11. April
7. July 12. Prophylaxis of troops previously
" 8. August exposed
9. February 13. Prophylaxis before exposure
1. Cases without seroprophylaxis
If we consider the period between debarkation in the endemic zone
and the date of the appearance of hepatitis in 268 patients having
received no prophylactic injection, we find that the first cases ap-
pear at the end of one month of the stay and that their number
26
FQR OF~'IC~AIa US~ ON~,Y
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increases in such a way that the mode is toward the third month.
CASES OF HEPATITIS
PERIOD BETWEEN EXPOSURE AND CLINICAL ONSET
CAS D'HEPATITE ~SANS PNOPNI'LAR/E~
DELAI ENTRE
EXPOS1710P1 ET DEBUT CLINIOUE
CAS (1,
~
~0 ~
~
~
~
i
~
~
70 ~
~
~
~ '
i ~
~ ~
w ~ ~
~ ~
~ ~
~
~ ~
~ ~
IO ~
~
i ~
~
i ~
0 70 60 90 1t0 /50 I80 710
JOUNS APAES L'ARAIVEE AU ~CNAD C2)
Figure n� 4.
Figure No 4
Key:
1. Cases
2. Days after arrival in Chad
:he graph in figure 4 representing this phenomenon is adaptable to a
Laplacian distributioii with the mean 81.59 and the standard deviation 23.69.
The mean of 81 days includes the incubation period and the no doubt variable
period between exposure to contamination and its realization, and this phenom-
enon is characteristic of an endemo-epidemic epidemiologic mode.
Chad is known to be a territory hyper-endemic for hepatitis where, in 1976
for example, 11,50G cases were confirmed among the civilian population
(4,000,000 inhabitants).
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ln the first units enga~ed 111 the operation, from the beginning of March to
1 September 1978, 133 cases were observed among 1,852 men, which is a morbid-
ity of 72 in 1,000. After that it is impossible to calculate morbidity, re-
I~lenishment of troops having been accomplis}led in small fractions.
Circulation of the virus was very active, as demonstrated at the Research
Center of the Army t-tealth Service by means of electronic immuno-microscopy in
7 cells out of 30 collected on location from subjects in goad health (3).
2. Cases tiaving received immunoglobulin before departure
In 2,360 subjects filed and followed having received the gamma
globulin prophylaxis before any exposure to the risk involved in
their stay in the endemic zone, a single case was observed, which
corroborates our findings in Lebanon.
3. Cases with prophylaxis on location.
If gamma globulin protects when administered before a massive con-
tact with the virus, one might wonder about their effect when used
even in the heart of an endemo-epidemic center. I
k-IEPATITIS CASES (WITH PROPHYLAXIS PERFORMED ON LOCATION)
PERIOD BETWEEN EXPOSURE AND CLINICAL ONSET
CAS D' HEPAT IT E ~A~EC PROPHYLAXIE
M/SE fN CFUVPE SUR
DELAi ENTRE PLACEI
EXPOSITiON ET DEBUT CLINIDUE
~ A S ( ~ )
20
10 ~
.
�
p 3C 60 90 110 ~50 +80
Figure No S JOURS APRfS L AHR/?Ef ~'U TCNAO ~2)
Figure n� 5.
Key:
1. Cases 2. Days after arrival in Chad
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In the 2,350 subjects concerned in the operation carried out on lo-
cation, 67 cases of hepatitis were observed afterwards. But here
the distribution of these cases in terms of the date of arrival in
the territory takes on a quite different aspect from that which we
pointed out for the cases without seroprophylaxis: the curve is
asymmetrical to the right, adaptable to a diminution curve which is
called negative exponential (with -0.021 days tr,e coefficient of de-
termination is 0.894). Such a diminution could represent the fact
that after the globulin is administered--on location or among the
new arrivals--the subjects likely to present a clinical episode
constitute a stock that is no longer being renewed.
It should be noted that between June and November 1979 seven new
_ cases were observed, although the practice of injecting gam^-a globu-
lin before departure had been maintained. Investigation showed, in
fact, that 5 of the 7 subjects, although they had properly received
a globulin injection before or during their first stay in Chad, had
been exempted from it before their second departure, because the in-
structions had been poorly interpreted. We will return to these
cases later.
B. Clinical aspects
Thus, in 3,710 subjects who submitted to prophylaxis, there were 68 cases of
viral hepatitis before the end of October 1978 and April 1979, for a morbid-
ity of 14 in 1,000, clearly below that recorded during the six months before.
It still must be considered that at least 14 of them are carriers of one or
more virus B markers. Among these cases 8 are probably cases recently infected
with virus B, which is not rare in Chad (6), since they were carrying HBs anti-
gen an~��HBc antibodies (7 cases) or only anti HBc (1 case). If ws add that
no marker makes it possible to reveal the existence of non-~--non-B virus, we
can acknowledge that the figure of 60 Eases of type A hepatitis is a maximum,
- which low?rs thP *!iorbidiry tn 13 in 1,000.
All of those affected except one had already been in Chad from 2 to 22 weeks
at the time of the immunoglobulin injection, and it can be admitted that the
globulin was administered to them too late to exexcise any protective power.
Finally, then, only one failure should be recorded: it involves the single
man who, having received an injection of globulin before his departure from
France, nevertheless presented with a hepatitis in the ninth week of his stay
in Chad.
One might also wonder if, in subjects having received immunoglobulin and never-
theless presenting with a clinical hepatitis, the hepatitis is changed,
alleviated or exacerbated?
Adopting the progressive classification of viral hepatites outlined by one of
us (7), the following comparative table may be established.
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TABLE III
General Case Prophylactized Patients
Percentage Number Percentage
Simp.le progression 66 55 SO
Di- or polyphasic
progression 33 11 17
Chronic progression < 1 1 -
Serious, fatal form < ~�2 1 -
C, Immunologic aspects
1. Carrying anti-HAV antibodies
It is commonly acknowledged that type A virus confers solid immunity after
first contact. Therefore one may be surprised to find among the 68 patients '
studied, 27 subjects who had since early in 1978 been staying in either
Djibouti ox Lebanon, or even in Chad in April, May, June or July; L`~ese are
hyperendemic zones where it appears to have been difficult to escape contact
with this virus.
On the other hand, of 1,912 blood samples taken in France before seroprophylax-
is among our young soldiers between the ages of 18 and 25, only 294 were re-
vealed to be without anti-HAV antibodies, or a proportion p= 0.154 (f 0.016)
(14 to 17 in 100), which conversely gives a proportion of carriers of 83 to
86 in 100.
Under these conditions, how can it be explained that such a well-"protected"
population can still give rise to contamination?
In fact, carrying anti-HAV does not seem to protect from a clinical attack.
Of 56 serums drawn before the departure for Chad from subjects who would pre-
sent with hepatitis later on, 37 contained anti-HAV antibodies, or a propor-
tion p= 0.66 0.12), or 54 to 78 in 100. A quantitative study of the car-
rying levels is in progress.
In the current state of our knowledge, three hypotheses may be mentioned:
either that the anti-HAV antibodies are not in themselves the sole sup-
port of immunity;
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or that the virus is not unique in its antigenic qualities;
or that external conditions (massiva contamination, fatigue, various
stresses, parasitoses, etc.) break down the specific virus A-immunizing
potential. It would still be necessary to explain why 19 subjects who
in July were living right in the endemo-spidemic center and then sent
home without having presented with hepatitis, contr3ct the disease in
November, after their return to Chad, when material living conditions
have been improved.
2. Passive-active immunization
We sought to find out whether injection of gamma globulin enables acquisition
of anti-HAV antibodies when there is repeated contact with the virus.
Of 208 subjects who were without anti-HAV antibodies at the tine the first
samples were drawn, 120 had such antibodies on their return to Chad four to
five months later (p = 0.577 � 0.069). One might think that after four or five
months the organism would contain no more than a tiny quantity of the an~i-
bodies injected with the gamma globulin. Theref~re, those specific antibodies
that turned up after the tour of duty probably come �rom an active immuniza-
tion process, but this process concerns only half of the subjects (between
51 and 65 in 100).
On the other hand, our of 33 of our patients who were the subject of a de-
tailed serologic study, six were not carriers of anti-HAV at the clinical on-
i set of their illness. But in two cases the immunoglobulin injection went
back 15 days and in two cases 30 days. For the other two the injection dated
respectively from six to nine weeks. So what had beco~?e of the antibodies
injected into the first four, if their half-life is acknowledged to be from
20 to 28 days? It should also be noted that in two of these six patients
the search fo~ anti-HAV always remained negative.
It is in this.context that the seven patients observed in July and November of
~ 1979 must be considered. Two presented with type B hepatitis. The other five
completed a second tour and had received globulin 280 to 330 days before their
clinical attacks. It might be surprising that they had remained sensitive
despite a stay of at least four months in a very infected milieu. Therefore
it seems that even in the case of a repeated exposure to the v;rus, active
production of antibodies does not necessaril,y take over from passive immuniza-
tion.
Conclusion
In the theoretical domain the present work reveals that many questions remain
to be resolved as to the pathology of type A hepatitis, particularly in the
matter of the immunologic phenomena associated with this disease. and this is _
the object of the research still being carried by the Army Heal_.~ Service.
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The controlled trial carried out on troops sent to Lebanon contributes the
~ certainty that an injection of 5 milliliters of polyvalent gamma globulin
rich in anti-HAV aritibodies, such as those prepared by the Army Blood Trans-
fusion Center, protects against the appearance of type A viral hepatitis.
Observation of the gamma globulin prophylaxis operation applied to troops in
sexvice in C}iad does not contradict this finding, but it demonstrates that
the injections of gamma globulin must be administered /before departure/ [iri
italicsJ for a hyperendemic territory if they are to manifest their full pro-
tective effectiveness.
The authors are especially grateful to chief physicians Aubry, Castera,
Caval~~l Dupeyron, Gautier, Juglard, Laure, Lozac'Hmeur, Nourrit, Prevot,
Salini, Sellier; principal physicians Grimaux, Hotellier, De Ressequier;
doctors Becker, Colleau, Gril, Huet, Humbert, Marsan, Ntartet, Rio, Thomas.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. A cooperative study, M.E. Conrad, Director. "Prophylactic gamma globulin
for prevention of endemic hepatitis. Effects of US gamma globulin upon
the incidence of viral hepatitis and other infectious diseases in US
soldiers abroad." ARCfiIVES OF INTERNAL N~DICINE, 1971, 128, 723-738.
I,
2. Uarbon (A). "Gamma-globulino-prophylaxie des hepatites virales. ~
Resultats d'une enquete epidemiologique effectuee en Algerie en 1959."
BULL, ACAD. NAT. N~D., 1971, 155, 735-750. '
3. Deloince (R.), Beaudry (Y.), Daveze (J.L.) et al. "Isolement et essai
de purification de 1'antigene lie a 1'hepatite de type A." NIED. ARMEES,
1978, 6, 783-790.
4. Gaguiere. (Epidemie de la Bekaa au Liban 1939-1940) - In: Synthese
des Assises"departementales sur les hepatites epidemiques par G. et
J. Godlewski." ASSISES DE NIED., 1954, 12, 121.
5. Hamon (J.), Darbon (A.), Colobert (L.). "Gamma-globulino-prophylaxie
des hepatites virales. Resultats d'une enquete epidemiologique
effectuee en Algerie en 1959." RE. CORPS SANTE ARMEES, 1966, 7,
111-121.
6. Laverdant (Ch.), Antoine (H.), Nicolle (R.), Molinie (C1.), Gautier (D.).
"Nouvel essai de gammaglobulinoprophylaxie de masse de 1'hepatite virale."
1~D. ARN~ES, 1973, 1, 47-54. ~
7. Laverdant (Ch.), Cristau (P.), Essious (H.), et al. "L'hepatite virale
et son evolution polyphasique. Etude de 704 cas suivis pendant 6 a 12
mois." 1~D. ARN~ES, 1974, 2, 781-790.
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8. Stokes (J. Jr), Neefe (J.R.). "The prevention and attenuation of ir.- _
fectious hepatitis by gamma globulin." JOURNAL OF THE AN~RICAN NiEDICAL _
ASSOCIATION, 1945, 127, 144-145.
COPYRIGHT: 1980 ADDIM �
8946
CSO: 5400
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COUNTRY SECTION SPAIN
ETA (P-M) TERRORIST ARESENAL INCLUDES FRENCH WEAPONS
Madrid CAMBIO 16 in Spanish 13 Jul 80 p 17
[For related articles please see JPRS 76570, 7 October 1980, No. 1635
. of this series pp 117-134]
[Text] Half a dozen aluminum kitc.hen pots, a couple of pressure cookers,
20 kilograms of "gum-2," several c!uartz watches and a dozen French- and
American-made electric batteries were the arsenal used by t~he ETA (p-m)
[Basque Fatherland and Libexty] to keep thousands of Spanish and foreign
tourists in suspense for the past 15 days.
The bombs manufactured from these materials, according to the police,
never contained more than 1.5 or 2 kilograms of "gum-2," "although the
effect they had on the tourist population was worse than a volcano." T~e
cooking utensils--metal pots and pressure cookers--were used by the
terrorists, according to the same sources, to protect tbe bombs against
weather.
Obviously the pressure cookers and pots must not have beEn hermetically
sealed, or the F~'A members may not have secured them properly. The
explosive artifact placed by the ETA on the Mi~as golf course, fcr example,
did not explode because the battery got wet due to the storm which occurred
some 15 days before the bomb was to go off.
A week earlier, the ETA bombs in Alicante and Javea went off an hour and a
half after they should have accord3ng to the ETA (p-m) communiques. The
police attributed this to the fact that the batteries must have been almost
dead and the watches were beginning to run slow. ~
It is therefore believed at the Ministry of Interior that the explosive
artifacts must have been placed at least 2 months before the ETA (p-m)
announced its bomb campaign against the tourists.
The terrorist command which carried out the operation, the same sources say,
is headed by Jose Aulestia Urrutia, who was the planner of the campaign of
attacks on the Costa del Sol, Castellon and Alicante last year.
It is no accident, therefore, that the campaign against the tourist trade
began exactly a year, but for 1 day, from the previous one, while the
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ETA (p-m) planned both last year and this to kidnap a UCD [Democratic
Center Union] deputy--Gabriel Cisneros, last year, and
Eulogio Gomez Franqueira, a month ago--in order to negotiate amnesty with
the government from a position of strength.
"The terrorist command," the police have stated, "not only planned both
terrorist campaigns from the South of France, but also made use of French
subjects to place the artifacts. The bombs," these same sourc~s say,
"were also fabricated in France, since neither the batteries nor the watches
are for sale on the Spanish market."
Under these circumstances, according to sources close to the Spanish gov-
ernment, there can be no doubt that there is at least tacit complicity
with the terrorists on the part of the French government, given the freedom
allowed the ETA movement in the Basque-French territory, where they plan
attacks, train commando units, recruit activists and collect "revolutionary
taxes." "Now then," a spokesman for the Ministry of Interior told CAMBIO 16,
"while we have the hell of bombs on our beaches here, it is not illogical
to presume that the terrorists are 'on vacation' at some point on the
French coast."
COPYRIGHT: 1979. INFORMACION Y REVISTAS, S,A.
515 7
CSO: 3110
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COUNTRY SECTION SPAIN
ENERGY PLAN EXAMINED AFTER 1ST YEAR, SOME SHORTCOMINGS SEEN
Madrid CAMBIO 16 in Spanish 10 Aug 80 pp 28, 29 -
[Article: "Getting Away From Oil"]
[Text] One year ago, amid high-powered arguments, Congress approved the
National Energy Plan (PEN). No less than 640 days had passed since the
Moncloa Agreements had pinpointed the need for an energy policy, and it
was more than 5 years since most of the western countries had realized
the seriousness of the energy crisis and had begun to take drastic measures.
The infant PEN was a long time being born. And in its first ye ar of life
the work has been piling up. "There is no other area of the administra-
tion where so many steps have been taken in one year. It is clear that
the PEN is a top priority program," Luis Magana, commissioner of energy,
has said to CAMBIO 16. And he added, by way of balance: "We are satisfied,
although that does not mean that we are not having any problems in imple-
menting the development of the PEN. Perhaps we could have saved a month
or two in what we have done, but there are many complicating f actors."
The left does not take such an optimistic view. "The government's PEN
has made it clear that something which is very sickly from birth is incap-
able of dealing with the problems which should have been solved. If the
energy situation was bad before, it is ~ust as bad today," Javier Solana,
the "energy man" of the PSOE [Spanish Socialist Workers Party] stated to
CArBIO 16. For Eugenio Triana of the PCE [Spanish Comm.unist Party] lack
of foresight and inertia have dominated the government's actions on the
PEN this year.
Regaining its health, the government's energy team has produced a report
in which it outlines the completion of the measures taken by~the PEN
this year. There is still a long road ahead to travel before reaching
the end in 1987, and before achieving the main objective of consuming
24 million less tons of oil, half of what is being consumed today. "To
go from oil amounting to 68 percent of consumption in 1979 to 48.9 percent
of consumption in 1985 is the overall objective which sums up all the
others," says Magana.
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To achieve this, 1.6 tri].lion pesetas are going to be invested through
1983, at an average rate of 400 billion a year. This will mean keeping
or creating some 125,000 jobs, especially in the areas of capital goods,
construction, assembly and engineering, which should come out of their
deep recession thanks to the PEN.
The nuclear field is where the Energy Plan has advanced most rapidly.
Construction of two new nuclear plants was authorized in August 1979:
Trillo (a 1,032 Mw unit) and Valdecaballeros (two 975 Mw units). Forty
billion pesetas have already been invested there, and 1,000 persons have
been employed at each location. It is predicted that in September the
government will grant final authorization for Trillo II (where nothing
has yet been invested), and later in November or December for Vandellos
II (where investments of 25 billion p~setas have already been made).
"We do not know why they are authorizing these two new plants, since in
order to justify them they will have to explain what increase in consump-
tion is expected over the initial PEN. It does not appear from the data
we have that they are going to be needed," Javier Solana said to this
magazine.
"In the field of nuclear energy, elementary measures for safer technology
have not been taken," states Triana. On this sub;ect, the Commissariat
of Energy has put a committee of experts in charge of issuing a report
on the different types of nuclear technologies, so as to standardize the i
type of plant which is being built in Spain. The idea is to set up a
"systems company"--as in France or Germany--which would unify technology
and even be able to look for new markets (basically in Latin America.)
"The Administration should decide on this point within a year," says
Luis Magana.
The most striking item this year in the PEN is undoubtedly the accelerated
plan for construction of coal-powered stations: There are seven plants
(four using national coal and three ~.sing imported coal) planned for Che
end of 1984. This involves an investment of 146 billton pesetas, and will
mean a saving of 6.4 million tons of oil each year. The decision on two
new 550 Mw coal plants is expected to be made at the end of autumn. This
involves a second group on the Almeria coast, and a plant in Ametlla
(Taragona).
"The only significant positive element, the most effective one in the
PEN, has been these coal power plants, which are compensating for the
delay in other fields," says Eugenio Triana. For cocialist Javier Solana,
there is the continuing problem of the future of CARBOEX, a public company
which will have to guarantee the supply of 70 percent of the imported
coal. "There is a very great possibility that CARBOEX may invest in all
the most expensive infrastritctures and ports and later the private companies
will benefit from this."
Another objective of the PEN, according to Magana, is to "do away with"
the use of fuel oil (petrolenm) in the generation of electricity within
4 years. Seven plants would be reconverted to coal, and another 20 (old
ones, located in the centers of cities) would be left for 'reserves' to
regulate the supply." 3~
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Another method of getting away from oil is the plan for the reconversion
of t}ie cement ~industry, which has promised this year that 70 percent of -
the fuel oil it consumes will be replaced by coal within 2 years. To do
this, investments of 20 bi~l.ion pesetas are needed, of which 70 percent
will be provided by official loans.
Through 1982 the Industrial Credit Bank will have a line of credit (6.12
billion pesetas in 1980) to finance the "stocks" of coal for steam power
plants, while at the same time it will subsidize the transportation of
coal f rom the coalf ields .
In the area of hydroelectric power, a study on the exploitation of small
waterfalls has reached an advanced stage. Some 800 "little waterfalls"
would be able to produce up to 2,000 Mw in hydroelectric power (like the
two nuclear groups, 8 percent of the energy which is consumed today) within
, 8 years if 200 billion pesetas are invested. The idea is to set up a
Promotion Society for this type of waterfall power, with the participation
of Che companies for Regional Development (SODIS), provincial councils,
savings banks, municipalities, companies and interested private pereons.
"Nothing is being done to improve hydroelectric exploitation," Eugenio
Triana criticizes. "And nothing is being done to establish pu~ping stations,
which make optimum use of the main plants. If it had not rained so much
this year, there would have been serious problems of supply."
On the subject of electricity, a bill is pending in Congress which would
institute a compensation mechanism for the installation of electric power
~ plants (as long as they do not use fuel oil or natural gas). It is esti-
mated that if the bill is approved in September it could involve an amount
of 20 billion pesetas in 1980, which will funadmentally benefit the pro-
vinces where the nuclear and coal plants are going to be installed.
(The provincial councils or the autonomous bodies will collect the mil-
lions.)
As for natural gas, the PEN is hoping to complete the infrastructure work.
month ago the gas pipeline reached Castellon, in August it ~Jill reach
Vitoria, and by the end of the year it is hoped that gas will arrive in
Valencia and Zaragoza. Drilling continues in Jaca, and the minister
of industry and energy has just stated that with the Serralbo deposits,
consumption of gas in Spain, which today accounts for 3 percent of the
total, can be doubled. For Eugenio Triana of the PCE, the "uncertain
future of our foreign supplies, because of incompetent foreign policy,"
is a serious problem.
In addition to getting away from imported oil as much as possible and
looking for cr:~de oil in our own subsoil--Magana believes that 2.5 mil-
lion tons could be produced in the near future--the energy authorities
are trying to work on refining so as to be able to convert fuel oil into
lighter products ~Program FCC). To do this, 160 billion pesetas will be
invested in seven "cracking" plants! which could mean a savings of 3.5
. million tons of oii ~y 1984.
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"~In the field of energy conservation, which represents a great source of
energy, there are not enough actions and incentives," comments Eugenio
Triana, The socialists agree. "We are one of the few countries of the
OECD where dependence on oil has grown by a point and a half. Almost
nothing h as been done to conserve energy, says Javier Solana. However,
the energy authorities state that they can point to the bill tor energy
conservation--which is now in Congress--and to the 10 billion which the
Industrial Credit Bank has availatle this year for credits to companies
which invest in conservati.on and self-generation of energy.
From Solar to Waste Power
When it looks at the new sources of energy, the left is unanimously cri-
tical. "Practically nothing has been done," says Solana (PSOE); "accomp-
lishments in solar energy have been very scattered," notes Triana (PCE).
In the first year of the PEN, construction of one solar energy plant has
begun in Almeria (1 Mw), pilot projects with solar cells have been carried
out (the latter at the Zarzuela palace) and the INISOLAR public company
has been set up. In addition, work is going on in research into energy
projects using wind, geothermal and tidal power (the latter with the
English and Japanese in a 12-million-peseta project) as well as using
material (a plant is being constructed near Madred--with 180 million in-
vested--and another two are planned in Castellon and Alcazar de San Juan.)
"All these are timid attempts; an overall plan is needed,'' states Javier
Solana.
Summing up all this complex framework of actions in the field of energy
in the course of one year, Luis Magana thinks that, on balance, it has
been very positive. "A plan has been put fo~aard, and very clear guide-
lines have been established. From now on it is more a problem of pace
than of definition." However, the Left continues to think that "the PEN
has not accomplished anything different from �~ri~at had been done in the
~ past."
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(1) Las inversiones en energia
~ Z~ (En millone~ de pextaa constantea. de131-XII-79)
( 3) n~.noo i9eo i9ei i9ax i~ �ea.sa
C~rbba .4 13.694 21.192 23.636 27.600 86.122
~~'bleo (-5,~............ 57.130 86.122 111.771 102.167 337.180
G~ . . ~ 6 . . . . . . . . . . . 24.990 23.647 21.378 12.203 92.218
Ceotraka: ~ ]
Hidt6ulkas ~ lS.SOB 16.464 16.237 14.802 63.011
~ c~~ 27.7T1 53.244 76.948 77.616 237.580
~b~ . C..3.( i0 3.316 1.733 1.384 1.342 7.975
Nucbares . 97.431 97.265 73.382 93.622 361.900
7}ans~p~rte,'tranQo~macibn
Y wetnbucibn (~1,2.j 39.675 61.939 65.936 66.239 236.829
Otrp Inwnbne~ ..3.~ 7.000 I 1.076 17.136 17.39! 4J.007
' Bl~etrlold~d 210.902 243.741 247.423 272.236 974.302
Cicb del co~t1~ n~.
����l1J J�����. 3.386 3.632 3.317 2.820 13.133
- CoeMnacibo, larad~r
c~ de+a~oJlp de la
e a ~.LbJ 16.932 27.t72 ~2.024 37.467 I13.395
T~TA1- ~a, . . . . . . 329.084 103.306 ~39.349 164.483 1.638.572
Key:
1. Investments in Energy
2. In billions of constant pesetas, as of 31 December 1979
, 3. Use
4. Coal
5. Oil
6. Gases
7. Plants
_ 8. Water Power
9. Coal
10. Fuel Oil
11. Nuclear
12. Transportation, Processing and Distribution
13. Other Investments
14. Electricity
15. Nuclear Fuel Cycle
16. Conservation, research and development
17. Total
40
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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000300040029-3

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000300040029-3
a.. .~r.:~:.
(1)`
(2)I~ao.t.~.e.oe.m.a.Y.+uw~Y.a..yY~nE~.li.) -
n
~.srs . :
1 ~
~.seo ~ _
W
a
~ ~
1g~
?~Mo~~rr woo CAlrpl IaNMG M1C~EM1 w1TUUL slIIOM~ O
Key:
1. Less Oil, More Coal and Nuclear Power
2. Percentage of each in Spanish energy sources ,
3. Oil -
4. Extremely dry year
5. Coal
6. Waterpower
7. Natural Gas ~
8. New Energy Sources j
9. PEN Estimate ~
~
COPYRIGHT: 1979 INFORMACION Y REVISTAS, S.A. '
8131 ,
CSO: 3110 END
41
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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000300040029-3