JPRS ID: 9082 USSR REPORT POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL AFFAIRS

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JPRS L/~082 -
- 8 May 1980
US~R Re ort
p -
POLITICAI AND SOCIOLOGICAI AFFAIRS
(FOUO 10/80)
FB~$ FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
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JPR5 L/9082 -
8 May 1980 ~
USS R REPORT
POLITICAL AND SOCIO LOGICAL AFFAIRS
(FOUO 10/80)
~ CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL
Burlatskiy Speculates on F~ture Chinese Foreign Policy -
(F. M. Burlatskiy; VOPROSY FILOSOFII, No 2, 1980)....... 1
- NATIONAL
Regional Forecasting of Populat3.on, Ethnic Processea ~
(B. M. Ekkel'; IZVESTIYA VSESOYUZNOGO GEOGRAFICHESKOGO
OBSHCHESTVA, No 5, 1979) 19
REGIONAL . _
Book on Uzbekiatan's Position Among the Soviet Republics
_ (UZBEKISTI~V V YEDINOY SEM'YE SOVETSKIKH RESPUBLIK,
1 7 7 ~ , ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ � � � � ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ � � ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a � 2 7
r
- a - [III - USSR - 35 FOUO]
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INTERNATIONAL
~
BURLAT3RIY 3P'ECU?,A~ffi ON FUTUR~ CHINFSE FOREIGN POLICY
Y~oacox YOP~SY FIIASOFII in Russian No 2,~ 1980 pp 112-125
[ Article by F.M. Burla,tskiy, h~ad of the Departmerit of Philosophy of the _
Institute of Social Sciences~ "On the Socioeconomic and Political 5ystem
o~ the PRC"] ~ -
[Text] !tl~.st is the f~tt.ire of modern China,? World public opinion is atten-
~ tively following the stzvggles, the searches and sacrifices of this
billion people and thirats to understa,n~d xhat ca,n be expected from China,
in the flxture. Ue tirill not make forecasts for the ].ong-term future. ~'e
xill ponder something elae~ xhat ca,n be considered relatively aettled~
determined, as a tendency in the life of mod.ern China,?
We ha,ve before us thirty years of experience of the existence of post-
revolutionary China--27 years urider Plao Zedong and three years ur~der his ~
successora. There is no doubt that modern China, is a unique and pa:r.a-.
doxica,l phenomenon. A country xhich calls itself aocialist, a state which
condidere itself a dictatorship of the proletariat~ a~a,rty which declares
tha,t it is the "most consistent Marzist-Leninist party,"~i~ conducting a.
patently antisocialist ~oreign policy, directed against the countries of.
- the socialist camp, the internationa,l communist mo~�ement, against the policy
, of peace and social pxogresa throughout the world,
In the mid~50'a, wti~ri this extremist cour~e was borh, it.xas possible to
thin k tha,t xe Were dealin~ ~rith a random zig-za8 in the political histo~yr
of China,, it Ha,s possible to expect that the forces xould be found in the
country Hhich would reatore the forei~n domestic arui fQreign, policy, and
came closer to the positiuns of scientific socialism and internationalism.
But now, ~rhen more than two decades of' the "zig-zag" have passed~ is it
not time to evaluate anew what has taken pla,ce anci to thinx a'bout Hhether
thia "zi~-~ag" is not a stable phenomenon, Which yri.ll find its continuation
in the ftiiture as well in one forra or another,
Radica,l Nationa,l~.sm and Grea,t Pow~arism
Not very much time has passed since the death oY Ma,a Zedong. It is still
too early to make final conclusions regar~3ing the dfrections of the domestic
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ai^~d foreign policy folloxed b~ the new leaders of China~ about their
attitude toxaxd the ideolo~ical and politica,l herita.ge of the deceased -
cha,irma.n of th~ Communist Party China, But yet certain tenriencies
ha,ve already appeared with a greater or lesser degree of certainty.
~ The first ia tihe very obvioue conclusion which su~eats ita3elf~ and is
contained in t:ze ~l.itility of the hopes that the dea,th of the "great
helmaman" will le~,d to strengthening the unity of his successors. As is
known, Mao Zedong conducted work that was gigantic in its scope and
effort and unheard of in its cruelty, work directed against everyone
who even in the slightest degree was able to be suspected of opposi~tion
lee,nings to his ideology~ politic~~ or culture. The "cultural revolution," ~
which led to dra,ma,tic consequences for the politica,l sysi;e~?, for the
higher leaderehip~ for the whole party, had as one of its main goals to
guaxantee during the life and after the death of Ma,o the complete elimina-
t~on of opposition forces, to insure unity on the platform of the '"ideas
of Mao Zedong."
ke see now how illusory this hope was, how fruitless the gigantic efforts
an3 sacrifices were. The death of Ma,o Zecio:ig led to the most acute clash
of forces on the politica,l Olympus of China,. The ideologica,l pla,tform of
Maoism ~ just exa.ctly like the "eleven ~,reat politica.l campaigns" to which
Hua, GuoYeng referred. at the llth Congress of the CYiinese Communist Party
_ have not given even a minimum gua,rantee against a new round of an acute
struggle for power~ for j.nfluence, arui even over problems of ideology arui
p411tics.
The second and to a certa,in degree sensationa,l event was the catastrophic
. downfall of the "lef'tists"--namely those leaders who were closest of all
to Ma,o Zedong. The defeat of the "gang of four" is the defeat of the
people who had practically the strongest influex~ce on Ma,o Zedong in the
- last 10 years.
_ Thirdly, it is possible to esta,blish the temporary consolidation of the
new politica,l lea,dership of the Chinese Communist Party. The rapproche-
ment of representatives of the "old gua,rd"--Deng Xia,oping, YA Jiar~ying and
others with figures from the period of the "cultura,l revolution~" and
particula,r~.y Hua, Guofeng, for a certain time consolidated the lead.ership
of theChinese Communist Party ara.~ the PRC. But only for a certain time.
F~Zn~damental problems of policy sti.ll a.re not praperly being discu~sed ~
the course of domestic, and paxticula,rly foreign, policy still is not
being worked out and it is possible to foresee an acute struggle before
this course is stabilized for an extended periodo There is no doubt tha�~ -
the struggle axound policy arui ideology, just as befare, is closely intex-
twined with the struggle.fc~r power and influence. ' '
A symptom of the acute struggle between the "raisers" of the ba.nner of
Ma.o Zeclong and the "undercutters" of this ba,nner (this is the terminology
- of the official Chinese press) is the speech of the vi~e cha,irma,n af the
Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party Ye Jiar~ying at a meeting
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_ in Bei~ing dev~ted to the 30th anniversary of the PRC on 29 September 1979.
It is acknoxledged in the report tha,t in the cour.ae of the "cultural revo-
lution" the country was thrust into "cha,os,""into an atmosphere of bloody
_ terror~" that implanted in the coun~ryr was a"dictatorship rotten to the core ,
and the moSt dismal fascism with a mixtut~e of feudalism." The guilt for all
this is pla,ced~ of course~ on the "~ang of four~" although it is known to
_ all tha,t the "cultural revolution" Kas led by Iia,o 2edong, which was told
about in the documenta of the.9th ar~d lOttY congresses of the Chinese
Communist Party.
Fourth~y~ it ia possible to establish definite shifts in the do;nestic policy -
of the nex leadership of the Chinese Comnninist' Party in cc+mparison with
I+Iao Zedong's line. This concerns first of all the economic policy, the
policy in the field of sc3ence, culture, and military affairs. The
policy of the "four modernizations," enunciated~ by the way, during the
life of Ir1ao Zed.ong, ha,s been made the basis of all the domestic ~olicy of
the present Chinese lea.d.ers,
The new leaders of the Communist Party of China, ha,ve cons3dered it expedient
to Zean upon the cult of Ma,o Zedong in the hopes of atrengthening their
power arxi consolidating their ~orces in the party, In re-examining some or ~
other clea,rly ineffective and unpractical policies of Mao~ the new leaders
nonetheless are "sa,ving face" and are trying to be guided by the teaching
of 1Kao in the struggle against these or other extremes of his policy. The
Po~ur~dations of the ideology of Maoism ha,ve r_ot sxayed. In this is the
c~ief contradiction of the present moment~ since the struggle for implemen-
tat3on di the procla,imed policy of the "four modernizations," the movement
for~rard in this direction are becoming less and less possible with the
prese~ration of Maoism as the ideologica,l foundation of the Chinese
Communist Party and the Chinese sta,te. . _
l~hat ca,n be considered as stabilized in the development of mod.ern China? -
Nox it is al~ea.dy possible to speak about flxily reveaied ierHdencies in the
development of China rrhich have cut a path for them3elves across all the
- troubles of the struggle of the leading politica,l forces with its movemerits
"to the rl.ght" and "to the left,"
~
In the 30 years ~om 1949 to 1979 the persona,l composition of the ru]ing _
clique in Chira ha.s changed more tha,n once. iTere the seri.ous changes
in domestic and forei.gn policy connected with this? To a certain degree
~ . these were connected (excluding the period of 1949-1958 when in the
lea,dership of the Chinese Communist Party there were still interna.tiona,lists
and when contirn~ing in aperation were the general tendencies of unity,
friendshi , and cooperation of ~he PRC with the USSR and o~ther socialist
countries~. The forei li i
gn po cy of China, proceeded, in essence, in the ~
very same direction, although certain shifts were observed from isolationism
_ arxi diplomatic passivity to a high level of activeness on the internationa,l
arena~ Domestic policy underwent great changes. However the overall
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course of economic, social and cultural policy in 1.957-1979 with all the
fluctua,tions also ha9 proceed in one, ~1a.oist, direction, -
� Of course~ the different figures in China, are greatly.different from one
= another= each of them is distinguished by his own, often quita diatinctive
srxi striking iruiividuality= in ma,ny waye their views also differ on some
uestions or othsrs of ideology and politics. Nevertheless they are all
~except for the consistent internationa,liats~ brought together by certain
. common typica,l traita. These are persona~ities of a radical leftist
nationa,l movement. Li Li~san is ri~t when he says tha,t they are all -
"leftists,"--leftiets in comparison with ri~tists of the Chiang Ka,isiiek
type. Therefore, independent of whether they are "moderates," like Zhou
- Enla,i ~ or "rightists" like Liu Shaoq i~ "le ftists" like Lin Biao, or
- "ultralef tists" like Jiang Q ing, characteristic of these and others is _
radicalism, an inclinatfon toward vlolence, social utopianism (to a -
greater or lesser degree~ and, fina,lly~ the main trait--na,tiona,lism. _
Both on the ind.ividua,l level and as public figure~, they are united by
a burning hatred for na,tional>opprrssion and for nationa.l-colonial oppres-
sion, to which China, was subjected, and the thirst for restoration of
its in3eperuience, its grand.eur~ These just feelings, however, have played
a malicious joke on many of the ~hinese leaders, when the progressive na-
ture of the nationa,l-liberation movement exhausted itself. A completely
new problem, gigantic in its sca,le~ aroses to accustom the Chinese na,tion
of many m~.llions to modern in3ustrial and cultural and, moreover, socialist
.life. Here is where nationa.lism une~ectedly took on a nega~ive cha,rge, it
beca.me ballast~ a burden, a ve.ry difficult obstacle on the pa.th of struggle
for solution of the new probler:~,
It was a great misfortune for ~the country that the new pleiade of leaders~
ra,ised under the cond'!tions of the raging of Ma,oist leftis^!, extremism,
and na,tiona,liem, was still prepa,red to a lesser degree than its predecessors
for solution of' the new difficult tasks o
The ma.in tendency in the ideology of the leading political forces is~
undoubted.ly, na,tionalism. In addition, before us 3.s a new type of
natiana,listic China,. It differs from the Kuomintang type and in addition
is like it. This difference could with a certain bit of conventiona,lity
be defined as radical-na,tiona.lism, This is a ma,tter of na,tiona.lism
ha~rl.ng a certain social-cla,ss direction. This is nationa,lism which reflects
- the most radical currents which have arisen in the framework oP ~he na,tional-
liberation movement� and have spilled out beyond these limits. In addition,
this is na,tiona.l~sm fermented on petty bour~eois revolutiona,ry characte~
with all o~ i~s excesses both with respect to socia.l changes and with
respect t,o thE ~7reign policy lineo We are inclined to call this new
line radical-na, �.~onalism, and not socia,l-na,tiona.lism, since its most
cha.racteristic trait is extremism, a tendency toward extr~me methods and
forms o~' its manifestation. This radicalism either ma.y have or may not
have a social tint, serve internal cla,ss transformations or ignore them,
,
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but it is alHays combined with an incl~na,tion toward coiarcio.n, toward
exoeesea, xith the ability to puraue different and even oppositesocial
goals.
No matter what has been said by I~iao Zedong~ hia auccessors and heira~ the
national great~eas of China for them is a.synm~ym of ~reat poweriem. The
fact that this is a typiva,l manifestation of na,tionali~m 3oes not Qause
- ar~y doubt amo~zng ar~y serious reaea,rcher or publicist ~rriting about modern
China. In the person of I~Iao Zedong and hia minione we are dea,ling with
ideologiets of the nationalism of a previously op~reesed nation, raoreover
a great na,tion, Khich over a millenium itself appeared ir. the role of
oppressor of the "barbarian" na,tion~: surrounding it. Na~~i~na,lism of
this type is increased tenfold by xemembra,nces of its own former many
centuries of suprema,cy and the out~-~ged feeling of humility in the period
_ of colonial derper~dence.
The basic motto of this radical-nationa,?.j.sm is to turn China, into a
mighty poWer. Me~Q Se~ong spoke about a mighty militaxy powsr., The new
" leaders of China. ta,lk a8ain arxi again about a r.~ighty socialist power. How-
ever their motto of the "four mods~n.izai~~n~' ha,a military modernization as
its ba,ais. It is not hard to foresee thai as time passe~, the more namely
this goa,l.will come to the fore~`ront. Military modernization--a,s the
main support of political prestige in the modern world~ the prettige nf
the country aa~d its leaders; military modernizat~on--as an effective �
palliative of the com~aon na,tional goal, un3fying all atrata of Chinese
sooiety= military modernization--as the gva,rantee of a new, perha,ps~
doaiina.ting role of the billion-atrong China .a,t the start o~ the next
milleniwn.
- "We are the greatest country in number of people~ richness of spiritual -
traditions of the past and one of ths mo~t ba,cks+ard countries in economics
and tea'znalogy"--this sentence literally ha,d not been uttered by
~ Kao Zedong when it was adopted by the modern figures of China,. When it
is not possible in a short time to overtake the in~dustrially developed coun-
tries ("the great leap forward"), a sole alternative remains--militarization.
The ~logari "steel and bombs" is transformed into "steel for bombs." And
then the symbol of na,tiona,l p o~er becomes ma,inly modernization of the
arlapr, the acquisition of nucleax rocket potentia,l.
I,et us remark that all the persona,lities nemtioned above, including
the~most "right-wing" (Deng Xiaoping), have alluded to the thEOry of the
"three worlds." China,'s role in thesv "three world.s" seems to them not
at all like the.role of one of the developing countries. No~ they
lay cla,i:a to supremacy--to the role of unifier af twc world.s in the -
strug;le aginst ~he two "superpoKes," and at the present time exclusively
against the Soviet Union and othar countries of the socfalist commonwealth.
This is the role o~ an "inside-out superpoxer," the main might of w~ich
should be the system of alliances symbolizing the new redivision of the
_ modern world. .
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~ Of course, this is the next utopias it is impossible to re~rlivide the
xarld ~+hen ignoring the ob3ectively e~dsting social conditions~ ar~i also
t~e esta,blished traditiona,l politica,l relations and preferences.
But this new social utcspia is ca,pable of turning one's head no less than
the former ~ touching upon the interna,l development of China, ("great iea,p
"people's communes~" "cultural rew lution"). Turned this time to the
outside, the fLuther along the more this utopia will do ha,rm to the cause
of the struggle for peace and social progress on the internationa,l arena.
The foreign policy orientaiior~ of the politica,l leaders of China is ba4ed
~j on the simplest premise about na,tiona,l adva.ntages arvd interest~, inter-
preted., however~ from the positions of ra,cial-na,tionaliam and the goals
o~ great-poxeriam subordinated to this.l N~tiona,l interests understood
in this geriod ha,ve engendered and stimula,te ~the orientation of modern
China, to those countriea which ma~nifeat interest in the milita~ization
of China, in oon a~lidating its might, in its still grea,ter affirma,tion
of the poeitions of ra,dica,l-nationa,l~amo Clea,rly it is the countries of
ca,pitalism--the pe,rticipa,nts in the imperialiat NATO block and oth~,r
states which axe being impressed na,mely by this new role of China,.
Anti-8ovi.etism is the trump card in this na,tiona,listic ga,me. Using the
policy of anti-Sowietism, ~gniting . all fears and terrors, supposedly
com~.ng ~rom the USSR, the Chinese lea~ders are obta,ining large dividend,s:
militazy and economic aid from developed countries of the West and Japan,
active political sugport, and flzll moral rehabilita+..ion. The Chi~ese
Ieaders are gaining freedom of action within the country. The ~'eat does
not care as long as the op position is preserved between China and the
3 oviet Union and other sociallat countries.2
Extremism of the foreign policy of China, is undoubtedly an esta,blished
- tradition. To whQre will it be directed? Right now its spearhead is
directed against the USSR an~d other countries of socia,lism. The aggre~sion
of China, against Vietna,m was a raflection o#' the general course of the
~or~ign policy of this country. Even at the present time in practica,l poli-
tics of China coming more and more to the forefront is the striving to
affi.rm ite hegemony in Asia and particula,rly in the 3outheast. At the
same time, it is not excluded tha,t in the very near fl.iture China, will
turn on APrica. In exa,ctly the aame way it is impossible to rule out that ~
by virtue of the growing rivalry it will become advantageous for the leaders
of China, not only and notso much to "pla,y the card" or anti-Sovietism,
but also the anti-Japanese, and the anti-Indian, and even tne anti-American
card. Ra,dica,l-na,tiona,lism finds its ma,nifestation in extremist foreign
polic;y~ the vectors of which may be directed. to vaxious sides.3
- On wha,t kirul of socioeconon~.c foundation is the radica,l-na,tiona,listic and
great-~ower line of the Chinese leaders being carried out? In other
- words, what is the 'ba,ais of the modern Chineae society~
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Petit Bourgeois and 3emii~udal "Socialism"
xe anxst not be misled by the adherenct, of the Chinese lea,ders ~o the mottos
= of sncialism. Socialism has become the banner of the 20th century similar
to the xay democrac3r xae the banner of the 19th century. Nox no one ia
surprised by socialist slogans.
NoK they are folloked by social-democrats~ trotsIqri.tes, left-xing ra,dicals~
Christian socialists, Arab ard AfMcan socialiats and ev~en terrorista f`rom
- the "red brigade~." Kaoism as an ideology aryd political practice occupies
a special pla,ce in this movement. Nhat is it?
~ Zealous admire rs of Chii4a ha,stened to declare I~laoism and the practical
eocperience of the PRC, especiall,y the experience of the "cultural xevolu-
~ tion," ae the Chineae "maiel of socialism." Typical in this respect is the
- position of the xell-knot~m revisionist ir,heoretician R. Gar audy.
Adv ~,ting the idea of different models of soc3.alism the "Soviet,"
"Chinese," "C$echoslo~k," and "~rench"--R.(~raudy ov~erlooks the main one~
socialism, subetitut~ng it for nationxlism, scarcely concea,led '
socia,l radica,lism arxi a revolutiona,ry phrase. irhat remains of the Chinese -
"model of socialis~' if. in the xords of R. Cffiauiy himself ~ connected xS.th
it is an "adveaturistic policy," based on "distortions and even crimes,"
"violent anti-3ovietism in the name of attempts to establish Chinese
hegemor~y ov~er the international comm~unist movement "a split in the caiap
of socialism~" and so on? i~lzat remains of the socialist idea,l if the na-
tion becomss a victim_ of adventuristic eaperl~nents of the unchecked
poxer of its leaders~ laying claim to t,he role of crea:tors of a nex symbol
of faith?
The very ra,iaing o~ the question of dif`Perent models of socialism doe~
not beax criticism. ilith all the fe~turea of these or other countrieei
there exiete a single historical type o~ socialiem~ 3ust like the single
type of capitaliem, despite its more or less substantial differencea in . -
the United States~ tdie F~, Japan, and F`rance.
~ ?'his acarcely contradicts the ttecessity of crea,tive application of the
principles o~ socialism to the concrete corxiitions of ea,ch cauntry, of -
each nation, of ea,c~ given historical period. This requirement is espe-
cially important ~h~n talking about su~ countries as China,~ Hhich has
not p~ssed through a~y aignificant stag~e of capitalist development and
~ bears the load Q~ the pre-capitalist me~hod ofl production~ the imperial
traditions of poxeY�~ xhich has been reflected in the particular features
of the ~ulttxro~ ideology~ s~d maes consciousnesa, -
3ocia list oonstruction in China~ a country that is backxard in an economic
respect, xith a huge predominance of a pea,sant papulation~ could nc,t help
but take on certain--and eve very substantia,l--specific feature~s. For
- inetance, the degree of centrali~ation ~,rid concentra,tion of poxer, probably~ `
shoul,d be higher t,han in other countries of socialism, both by virtue of
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the centuries-old traditions of power and the gigantic size ot this country
of many millions, as well as by virtue of the fact that the revolution in
China was accompanied by a violent civil war. But how, all th~e same,
ahould the ~saence of the aociopolttical structure of modern China be
deaignated? .
It seems tha,t for the solution of this problem we are rendered inv~,lua,ble
asaistance by the ideas of K, Marx and F, Engels rela,tive to different ~
politica,l and social currents appearing under the slogan of soci~~lism,
expressed even in the "Commur~l.at Ma,nifesto, " I,et us recall tha,t given
here is a description of four types of ideologies of socialismt
1, Reactionary aocialism~ which includes feudal socialismi 2. Conservative
or bourgeois socialism= 3, Critical utopian socialismi 4. Cummunism.
_ Of especia,l significa~ce f`rom the standpoint of the problem of interest to
us Ss the description of feudal and petit bo~argeois socialism, reflecting
the interests of two cl.a,sses, which one way or another oppose the develop-
ment of a capitalist society, Feudal socialism~ in the words of K. Ma,rx
and F, Engels , is "ha,lf a dirge ~ ha,lf a lampoon, half ~.n echo of the pas+, ,
half a threa.t t~ the f~iture." -
I,et us note that feudal socialism not only reflects the pa,st of hwuan
histary, but also is a threat to the fliture ~ and let us turn f~rther to
the des~r iption of petit bourgeois socialism thr: is especia.lly important
for us, KaMa.rx and F, Engels ~rrite: "In such countries a s France, where
tne peasantry comprises much more tha,n ha.lf of the whole p~pula,tion,
na,turally there was an .emergence o~ writers who, standing on the side
of the proletariat against the bourgeoisie, in their criticism of the
_ bourgeois system affixed to it a petit bourgeois anrl small peasant
yardstick and defended. the cause of the workers from a petit bourgeois
point of view. This is how petit bourgeois aocialism aroseoooThis socialism
strives either to reatore the old. means of production an~d exchange and
along with them the old relationships of ow~n~rship and the old aociety, or
it strives with a new force to cram modern means of production and exchange
into the framework of the old rel.a,tionships of ownership, rela,tions~ips
~ihich were alrea,dy demolished by them and needed to be demolished." .
Ce'rtainly we are far from the affl.~ma,tion that suppos.edly the histA ry of
modern China, is a simple illustration of these conclusions of Ma,rx and
Engels,relevant ~or the most pa,rt to the reflection of the still not
formalized. social move~nent in litex~a,tureo But still it 3s exactltiy these
very valua,k~le prognoat3c ideas of the founders of scientific socialism -
_ which give u~s the key toan understa,nding of .wha,t is taking pla,ce in
Chiraa, -
The initial positions for the battle for socialism in China, were ha.r~ly
less favorable tha,n in Fra,nce before the revolution of 1848, which was
written about by g. Ma,rx and F, Engels. On the eve of the revolution in
194~9 China, was a semifeudal society, the overwhelming ma,jority of which
was comprise of pa,tria,rchal peasantry, a country where la,ndlord prope~rty
r3ghts were preserved., where ca,pitalism received xather one-sided
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development, taking on the form of state-bureaucratic capita,lism~ in which
the interests of high ofS.~ials~ the compradore bourgeoisie an~d foreign
:
capital xere closely intertwined.
In prerevolutiona.~y China,, there were extremely feH prerequisites for the
tsanaition to soaialism~ there xas an undeveloped eceno~r, a not yet
formed ~orking cla,ss, the abeence of ar~y significant stra,tum of specialista,
a colossal burden of ssmifeudal relationships, traditiona of imperial _
rule arxi patriarchal ideology. Under such conditions a c~ntra,l place wa.s
occupied ob3ectively by the tasks of irydustrialization, ef modernization
of the nationa,l econo~y ~ of activ;e growth of all productive forces as the
basis for ~adual and consistent rebuilding of social re~ations on
socialist principles.
Such a policy Ka,s developed by the 8th congress of the Chinese Commun~st
Party. Ho~~rever the ~eft-xing nationalist elements, headed by Ma,o Zedong~
not desiring t~ tolerate a prospect of an exter~ded st le for realiz~,tion -
of the desired goal (turning China, into a mi~hty state ~ began to fc~rce
very radica,l transformations in the sphers of .ownership, and then in
the xhole system of economic relations. Although this xas passed off as
socialism and even as communism~ it had an imagina.ry socialist character
arxi served as an eacellent illustration of the state~ents cited above by
K. 1~arx and F. Eagels about the forcible cramming of modern means of pro-
duction into the f~amexork of old relationships of ownership. _
The ~ole matter is in that putting the oxnership of property in the har~ds
o~ the atate--a,s xas predicted by g. Narx and F. Engels and confirmed by
our era--is not at all identical to affirmation of socialist oKnersh3p
ar~d socialist production re]ations. There is no doubt that th~ pre-
valance of private oxnership engenders an exploitationa,l society. But
does state oxnership always inevitably lea,d to social equa.lity and socialism?
The experience of our century gives a. nega~tive ansxer to this question.
3tate ottnerahip is a flexible form of owr.ership. It may serve both _
socia,liat and non-socialist groals,
, In o~:r era it is possible to differentiate the following types of state
oitnership in nonsocialist countries~
1. Sta,te-monopolistic o~nershi~ under the conditions of developed `
capita,lism, where the state sector comprises 20-30 percent in industry.
Urxier such conditions the state on the whole expresses the interests of
the monopoly (and also to one degree or another of ~he whole bowcgeoisie;,
arxl. state oxnership ultimately serves the interests of these monopolies.
2. State-capitalist ownership~ characteristic for countries of underi-
devgl.oped capitalism, Which have not yet reached their monop olistic stage.
This can be ob~erved pa~icula,rly in the developi;t~g countries of ca,pital ist
orientation, ~.nd also in ma,r~y medium-developed capitalist countries ~ for
3.nstance, in Iatin America. State ownership in developing countries of
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capitalist o~~ientation atta~ns 50 and sometimes 70-80 percent in industryP
but it hardly serves as the ba,sis far socialist relations a,nd changes,
_ 3. Feudal state ownership. This type of ownership ca.n be observed in a ~
number of developing countries~ and particula,rly in Africao In ma,ny~ casee
- feudal state ownerahip is intertwined with state capita,l~ an example of
which is Saudi Arabia.
What is the criterion for rela.ting state ownership to socialist ownership?
First of all the character of the production relations (the absence of _
exploitation), the nature of power (working claes .and laborers lea,d the
state), the way of li~'e (high living sta~dard, satisfaction of economic ~
and social rights and participation of the workers in ma,na,gement). State
- ownership becomes socialist not because it is state, but because it is in
the hands of a sociali3t state, which disposes of the property in the in-
terests of the wurking class and all laborers, This means that state -
property pla,ys the same role played. by the state itself. An important
external indicator of the character of the system is the pol-~cy--economic~
social, cultural and foreign policy as well. .
Where does the n~ional income go in China? To the development of military
- prod.uction, to the solution of na,tiona,listic suger-problems, to turning -
the country in a short time into the domina,nt power in the modern world? -
Or to the development of public productlon and f~.iller satisfaction of the
needs of the workers? Who is distributing the property? Are the workers
paxticipa,ting in administration of the state~ in determining the economic and
social goals of d~velopment'? In other words, is a socialis~ 3emocracy being _
imp7.emented? What is the role of the state on the international arena,
is it subordinating its own policy to the interests of the Chinese workers,
~s it entering into an alliance with other eoc3alist nations and countries
or is it subordina,ting its activity to the attainment of great-power goals?
_ These are the questions, the answers to which will make it possible ~or us
to 3udge properly the na,ture of the socioeconomic and poli'.ical system in
China..
As the Chinese leaders the~mselves note, in the last 10-12 years there has
_ beon a sharp intensification of the technical la,g of the PRC beh~ind the
developed.powers., In a number of its sectors, such as the automobile~ tractor
and aircraft sectors, not one large enterprise of the modern type ha,s
~,ppeared since the beginning of the 50's. The proportion of small-scale
semi-hendicraft production oceupies 50 percent in the gross produet of
industry. Backwa~d prod.uctive forces comprise the. real-basis of the
prod.uction rela,tions~ far from an industrial socialist base. It ia
enough to corrrpare the productive forces o~ the PRC with the productive .
forces of the sociallst countries of Ea,stern Europe in order to understand
how far China is from the crea,tion of the material and technica,l ba,ses of '
socialism.
But even the existing productive forces axe hardly be~.ng used. for streng-
thening the socialist bsse. Th~ policy of milita:.ization ~f the economy
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- has deformed the process of establishment of the prc~duc~,ive forces of
socialism. ?~ore than 40 percent of ~the atate budget goes for the military . _
industry ~ in other words ~ it is ~.il~}r irlthdraym t`rom the sphere of aocial
coneumption of the Chinese papulation.
If xe approach the understanding of eocialiam with such cMteria, it i~
~mpossible not to conclude that modern China, is extremely far ~om the
truly socialist idealo Me are observing in it what 1~la,rx called a manifesta,-
tion o~ petty 'bourgeois and even semifewdal "socialism" in economics and
social rela,tionships and radical-na,tiona,lism and gx4at-pofrerism in
id~eology and foreign p~licy. This is reality, this is the pres~nt stage
of the development af China.
U nder such con~ditions the matter is not saved by the dominance of state
oxnership in the city and coaperative ownership in the countryside. Pro-
duction relationB ars suboYdinate to those ideals which are far from
sociaZism. T,et us recail that ~om the very beginning Mao and his adherents
undertook extreme measures in order sharply to reduce the time of socializa-
tion of oxnershig in the city and the countrya At the ~eginning it seemed
- this this was simply the result o~' revolutionary impatience, but soon. it
became clear that a feverish stru~gle? for the national greatness and.
supremacy of China stood behird this.
Whereas iri the Soviet Union socia,lization of industry and a,griculture took
almost 20 years, in Chir~: Lt took a little more than five years. In the
Soviet Union the period o~ iridustrialization took not less than 15 ye.ara=
in China, an attempi; was made to ~ake this historic advance in 10 years~
despite the lower starting level of economic development. The "Great Lea,p"
and "communization" xere, consequently, a continua,tion and intensification
of tha,t policy of the headlong and spasmodic "sprin~ for commuriism," which
- Mao Sedong a~. his adherents tried to thrust on the country after the vic- ~
tory of the peaple's revolution. The sea,rch for a particular~r Chinese
' road to socialism, which found its reflection in the policy of the "grea~t
1eap," "people's communes~" and the "cultural rev~lution" ended in a total
- failure. Mao Zedong did not think about roturning to the pat h of true
socialism, embodied in the experience of the USSR and other countries of
the socialist commonx~alth. ilhat remai;~ed? It rewained. to rebel, to -
destroy, to eng~:ge iri political campaigns xhich would divert the party
anri the ma,sses from recognition of the obvious factt the Chi:nese "model
of socialism" ha,s turned out to be a soc~.al utopia, or an open demagogy.
It is cha,racteristic tha,t Mao Zedong did not bequea,th anything ~o his
successors, nothing bes3,des continuation of the ca.mpaign of the "cultural
revolution," which fourhd its theoretica,l express3on in the slogan "continue
the revolution under the conditions of the dictators:~ip of the proletariat,"
which iras Wholly taken up by his successors. He did not lea,ve any kind of
"'bequest" on the subject of a sociopol~tical progra,m for the .flzrther
development of China,. All his sta,tements, eapressions, and letters over
the past ~rears were devoted exclusively to the problem of the struggle
xi.th the kaputists," in other yrords~ to the problem of power, He did
~ not even mention the fliture socinpolitical and socioeconomic pmgram.
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Shortly be~ore the death of Ma,o Zed.ong such a program was aet forth by
Zhou Enlai in the s:logan of the "four modernizations," picked up aubae- -
quently by th.e aucce8sox~s o~ Mao~ ~iie nea leaders of China,. But what
t}~e rela,tion of I~Iao Z ed~ng was t~ this slogan xemains completely unclear. .
The~e is no mention of the policy of the "P~ur modernizations" in even
one of his works or statements, not in any quotation cited by the new
lea,ders, although ~repeated endlese~ly are the themes of ideological and
political atruggle on behalf of turning Clhina, into a mighty militaxy
power. Here is all the "constructive" 'bagga,ge of Ma,o Zedong, wtiich people
like Roger Ga~,u~y clearly based on ideas of anti-Sovietism call the -
Chinese "model of socialism."
- Meanwhile the sociallst transformation of ownership is a many-sided act.
It pursues different goals~ liquidation of the exploiter cla,sses and the -
social grounds for exploitation of ma,n by ma,n, giving the masses access
_ to ma,na,gement of the econo~y, raising the level of productivity of soci,al
].abor. The socialization itself ehould be adeq,uately prepared in the
~ economic, social and cultural respects. Otherw3s.e it can take on a one- '
sided and even deformed chara,cter~ not contributing to a rise in productivity
- ofl l.abor or to accuatoming the masses to ma,na,gement of production. Namely
the la,tter is what occurred in China,.
It goes without saying ~hat the victory of sta,te ownership in the city and
forma,ti~n of cooperatives in the countryside is a ma3or achievement of the
Chinese revolution. But this is only a frontler (although an important
~ one~, which it was especially necessaxy to take into account in China,, where
there were extended traditions of sta,te socialization under feudalism.
The emergence of modern industry in China, at the er~. of the 19t~h and
~ beginning of the 20th centuries in China, was connected exactly with the
- developmant of state cpaitalism, ar~l the first enterprises were under the
- ownership and disposition of the sta,te. In China, there was not or .
practica.lly was not a cla,sa independent of the state, like the bourgeaisie
- in E~rope in the period of primary accumula,tion and the first iruiustrial
revolution. The large industrial and trading compa,nies axising at that
time (for instance, the Chinese commercial steamship line, coa,l mines and.
, others) belonged to the statA or to officials. The development arui flour -
ishing of these or other priva,te companies also wholly depended on the state,
, on its licenses and subsidies at the expense of tax monies. It is not
by accident tha,t the Ch.iar~g Ba,ishek government not only did not strive to
- destroy this tradition but, on the contrary~ helped to strengthen it. In
h3s book "The Fa,te of China,," Chiang Ka.ishek irisisted, in particula,r, on
the idea of the developra:t of a state econo~y. Considering all this~
after the revolution it was necessary for the Chinese leadera to ma,nifest
especial discretion in ca,rtying out socialization of property so vha,t it
would actually bear a genuine~y socialist chara,cter.
In Ma,rxist literature of recent years the opinion ha,s been ma,inta,ined. that
_ the social and politica,l cha,nges in the PRC "did not go beyond tne frame-
- work of the initial sta,~e of social.ist construction, and later the
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established sociopolitical structure xa,s deformed under the influence of
the zegime of the personal poxer of lKao Zedong arid his ideology.
Hoxever the struggle frithin the Chinese Communist Party took place not
_ on~y in the sphere of ideology. Touching on the fl~rbdamenta,l guestions of
the economic, social a~i palitiaa 1 development of the country~ it
inevitably was reflected in the character~ forms anri rates of implementation
of the social changee. The contradictory an~d erroneous policy ~tas also
re~lected in the eaonomar ani in social rela,tions. This is explained not
by imQginary "leaps~� but 'by genuine dropa in the course of building the
nex society of Chinas ~om la,rge-scale victories in its init;,al stage to
� economic declines in subsequent yea~rs; from significant victnries in the
struggle against feudalism and imperialism in economic construction to a
_ sharp decline in the development of productive forces arxi a wea,kening of
the country; from truly unliiaited popula,r enthusia,sm, directed at creative
- goals in the first years of existence of the PRC, to the raging of
nationalism and. simultaneously an increase in the pa,ssivity of the masses
as a result of the disastrous experiments of the I'~aoists.
Indeed, tahat~are the results of all these social e~xperiments--the "great
leap," "people's communes," the "cultural revolution," for which the Chinese
pepple pa,id xi.th 30 million human lives? The ansker to this question is
red.uced ultimately to ascertaining how the workers, peasants and labor
_ intcjlligentaia live now.
In es$ence, over the last 15 years xe have been observing almost exclwsive~y
the life of ~uat one stratum of China--these 3U million "_ganbu," who
, wjlll in any way take a place on the political ladd er. Thair struggle
for poxer xith all its accessories--the adherence o~ exaggerated and abswrd
labels, abuse of .op~onents, righ~ up to phyaical reprisals on them~ their
obscene ideological and political polemics, in which it is possible frith
difficulty to find a rationa,l kernel of real diver gqnces, their flinging -
. from extreme to extreme, ~om right-wing politics to leftist,from
leftist to still more left-wing, from still more left-wing to right-wing--
all this is a ripple on the vast sea, of the lab.dring papulation of almost
1 billion in a great country, All the facts indicate that a socialiat
. xay o~ li~e has not been implemented in the PRC, but a xay of life
dif~ering little from the former semifeudal systems. -
Ho~? is the life of the Chinese peasants, who even now still make up the
overwhelming majority of the popula,tion? Almost half of the peasant
population has rem~,ined. illiterate and, therefor.e, cont3nues to be~3eve
in Hhat its fathers and grandfathers believed in, and all the de'bQtes of
the Chinese leaders about the "proletarian culture," whether it is Chen
Boda~ Lin Biao or Jiang q~.i.ng, sidestep them~ lika a ping-pong game~ since
these peasants are outside ~~f their ordinary consciousness and their
- psychology.
The local press 1n China, cites dat.a, about a marked worsen3ng of 'the living
standard of the popula,tion, For instance, in Sichuan Province the incomes
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of the popula,tion were reduced by 18 percent from 1974 to 1976. In
Mhui Province they decreaaed. by 20 percent f`rom 1973 to 1976.
Announced recently was an increase in wages by 16 percent for workers
~,nd white col]a r employeea ~rith a"long term of la,bor servioe and a low
xage~" however up to now this ~romise has not been realized either.
Eetablighed wae a policy of a low wage~" strict control and a coupon
system for distribution of foodstuffa, and ob~ects of prime necessity with
a simultaneous aharp increa,se in retail priceeo
The PRC is 100th in the world with respect to amount of na,tiona,l prod.uct
per capita, b~ut with respect to volume of military expenditures it occupies
one o~ the first pla.ces.
In exactly the same way it is hardly possible to see any essential changes
in the way of life of the ariqy of unskilled workers, who even now comprise
the ovezwhelming ma,jority of the working cla,ss in China,o No cha,nge is
_ evident either in the life of other strata of the Chinese n ation, except
for those who were touched directly by the recent political campaigns
(as participants or victims~,
The most drama,tic legacy of China,�s feudal past is the sociopolitical
passivity of the ma,jority of the Chinese people. In fact even now they
are the object and not the sub3ect~ not a creator of social changes
which axe planned somewY~ re on the top in the fram~work of t,he highest
politica,l leadership and which a,re accepted as roper by the whole na,tion.
What is thought by thi:s "clean sheet of pa,per" ~in th~ words of Ma,o Zedong)
and how it lives~ in essence, is not the concern of the lea,dership of the
- country~ it is important only tha,t the nation accept submissively ~r~y poli-
t3ca1 policy coming from above.
The most important criterion of a socialist society is the presence of power
tn the hands of the working class ax~d all the workerso But it is na,mely in
this tha,t China, is especially fax f`rom the socialist ideal. In China, the
working cla,ss has never performed politica,l leadership of society. At
the time of forma,tion of the PRC the~e were only 3 percent workers in the
ruling communist party. Although later ($th ,Congress of the Commn~nist
Party of China,) there were 14 percent workers in the party, the higheat -
posts in the party and state were occupied almost exclusively by people
- f.rom the pea,santry, the petit bourgeoisie of the city and the countryside
and even landowners. At the border line o~ the 50's and 60's a regim,e of
the military-bureaucratic dictatorship was established, a xegime of the
persona,l power of Ma,o ~edong, In thr period of the "cultural revolution"
about 17 million people, who .shaxed the "ideas of Ma,o," were taken into
the Chinese Communist Party, The represe~tative system in the party and
the government turned out to be co~rtpletely pa,ralyzed., the principles of
socialist democracy were renudiated.
After the death of Mao much was done to restore the higher ar~ans of the
party, the st~te, and in the area of ma,nagement of the econon~y. But the
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essence of the political system has remained xha,t ~,t xas formerly. This
ie a non-democratic etit bourgeois system of poxer.~here political -
methQds and customs ~purgea~ slaughter of political apponents~ the practice of
administrative appointments ar~d others) p~evail xhich were charseteristic -
~or old semifeud~,l China.
It Kauld have been poBSible to think that alI this expressea only a certain
initial atage in the construction of eocia,lism. But here be~ore us is the
new Constitution of the PRC for 1978, the nsK Program of the Chinr~s~
- Communist Party for lg'77, in xhich a declaration is made of the same no-
torious ide~ of "continua~ion of the revolution un~der the con~ditions of _
diatatorahip of the proletariat~" the same "shake-ups" and internal struggle.
The ideal of Ma,oism is socialism Wi.thout ar~y xelfare ~ rrithout any cle mocracy ~
xithout ar~y participQtion by the mQSSes in administra,tion~ without any
freedom of man. This ~s,ocia,liem" is ba,aed Qn the exploitatioz of the
xorkera in the interests of the ruliang military-bureaucratic group (ganbu)
and the social ideas (ffilitary production~ na,tional greatness) formulated
by it. In other xords, this "socialism" is petit-bourgeois bureaucratic
xith clearly axprassed feuda3 traits.
. At ~ne time V.I. I,en~.n xrote that a backirard country can easily get
started becauae its .apponent has been suppres8ed, because its bourgeoisie
has not been or~anized, 'but, in order to continue~ it muat hav~e 100~000
~ tia~es more circumspection, caution arld tenacity, It is exact~y in China
tha,t the gap xas especial]tiy great betireen the magnitude of the ta,sks set
forth and the pove.rty~ not just material~ but also cultural~ xhich xas
noted b~r Lenin.
~ Nox, based on experience gained, xe can evaluate xhat the petit bourgeois~
semifeudal "socialism" is xhich xa,s xritten about even by g. Marx an,d
F. Engels~
- In the area, of productive foroes this is an econon~y xhere there is a pre-
doa~.na,nce of ma,rnta,l and' ha,ndicraft labor ~ a low level of inechanization ~
1$bor xith a~ox level of productivity, the basis of xhich is made up of
an illiter$te peasantry arid unskilled workers.
In the area of production rel.ations this is sta,te oKnership which is used
not for improving the xell-beirg of the workers arxi a~l laborers~ .but for
intensif~rl,ng militarization. The xorkerss are kept aKay from partici
tion in~ management of the ente.rprises. Pea,sant,s associated in co ~
a~e in fact deprived of the opportunity t~ decide problems of thei~o~wntives
Ia.bor arxt life.
In the political area the poxer and wi.ll of the "ganbu" stratum
prev~ils ~ a].arge part of ~hich comes f`rom the pea;sa,ntry and petit
geoisie, b~.it has become declassed and formed a socia,l group serving as
4he support for the tiureaucra,tic system of poxer.
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In the area~ of ideology this is the predomina,nce of radical-na,tiona,lism .
and great-pow~r chauvinism, which is embodied in the "ideas cf Ma,o Zedong."
If we proceed f`rom such an understan~ing of t`~e socioeconomic and politica,l _
syatem o~ the PRC, it is not necessary to be surprised at the country�s -
pnlitical line on the world arenao The semifeudal, petit bourgeois
"socialiem" is in conflict with true p~oletarian socialism, ~ust as during
the t~,mo o~ Marx scientific socialiam was in conflict with the petit -
bourgeois ar~ anarchic paeudosocialist ideology.
The last question ist where ia China going? It is possibl.e hypotheti^ally
to imagine several versions of the country's development.
The first path is the gradua,l advancement toward scientific socialism
on the basis of development of the economar, growth in the working cla.ss~
the popular intelligentsi~,, accustoming the peasantry to an active polftical
- life~ and development of a socialist democracy.
The second path is restoration of ca,pitalism and a return to prerevolutiona,ry
rel.a,tions, which is very unlikely.
The third path is extended preservation of the petit~bourgeois ar~l semi- "
feudal forms of "socialism," the subsequent development of which in the
flzture cannot be imagined even on a theoretical level,
Of course, we axe wholly in favor of the first path of development for
China, hoWever the ~ture will show the direction that China, will follow.
The fact is tha,t in the country the radica,l-na,tiona,listic forces ha,ve
ga3.ned~the upper hand and they~ reflecting the long traditions of the pa,st,
are using the social, cultural and politica,l backwardneas c,f the masses~
the objective difficulties of the nonca,pitaliat path of transition to
socialism in a country that is extremely backxard in an~economi~c and social
respect.
Also appearing highly unlikely is the restora,tion of ca,pitalism, since in
the country there is not even one class or social group which would be
interested in restoration of private ownership. Neither the woxkers~ nor `
the peasants, nor the intelligen+,sia is interested in this. With respect
to the growing group of the "ganbu," it even now is enj.oying all the
priv ileges of power and Well-being in China,. This group in fact ha,s cha,rge
- of state proDerty, and transferrin~ it to the hands of some pr3vate persons
ar others, eva~n highly-p?aced leaders, would be of grave detriment to this
BrouP.
Then~ apparently, the most proba,ble is the exteruied development of China.
in the existing forms~ which were inherited by the new lea,ders as the
legacy from the former period of Ma,o. The slogan of the "four maierniza-
tions," which does not provid~e for any significant social transforma,tions ~
in the social and politica,l system, reflecta na,mely this tendency. Thia is
a technological and technocratic sloga,n, but not a sociopolitica,l one.
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The popular masses will live under the same conditions and with the same
relatione as before. Their living standard, welfare~ way of life~
ar~d participation in administra,tion frill deper,d not on themsc~lves ~ but on
_ the ruling politicalforces. These latter have for the long-term historical
perspective ~elected the orientation of turning the country into a mighty _
poxer xith a gorrerRtl ~ailitary-irxiustr! al potentia,l. This is an orientation
to presarv~,tion and, perhaps, intensifica,tion of the poverty of the
a~pidly groWing population of many millions in China. On the soical level
this is an ari,entation to a constant increase in the "g~a;n'bu" group as
- the main support of the Chinese state. On the foreign policy level this
means groxing great-poKer na,tionalism, dixected firat.of all ag~inst neigh-
bor~.ng countries to the southkest, southeast arxi to the north of China.
Zn other Horda, over the duration ~f an extended period China will be
a threat to its neighbo~rs and on the xhole for the ca,use of peace
throughout the xorld.
Of course~ this forecasto 3ust as ar~y theoretical prognosis~ Wi.ll be ad-
3usted in t3me. A nu~er of factors of a positive nature exist which may
ultima,tely lead China, on the road to genuinely proletarian, scientif'ic
aocialism. This is firat of all the steady grorrth in the xorking class,
in the intelligentsia, the increased cultural lev~el of the xhole Chinese
population~ including the leQding political forces~ and finally the coming -
= to poxsr oY a nex generation o~ leaders.
This ]$st factor desarves especial attention. We have seen tha,t the young
E~eneration of leaders, the a3vancement of xhich laid the fuundation of the
"cultural revolution," has proven to be more leftist, more extremist than
its predecessors~ the representativ~s of the "old guard," Restoration
of the "old guard" to leadership marked.a return to a mc~re m~derate course,
in any case in the field of domestic policy. .
The matter can turn out differently if the course of the "four moderniza-
_ tions" becomes the basis of the domestic policy of the Chingse Commn~nist
Party ~or an extended period. It is not excluded that in this situa,tion
the mo~e cultured and rationall,y thinking part of 'the Chinese Communist
Party xill flourish~ the part capable of wxierstar~ding and implementing
leadership of a nex course. And it is also not excluded tha,t the future
irill belong na,me~y to this group, Then coming to rapla,ce the cla,moraus
ideologists Kill be businesslike administra,tors, proceeding f`irst of all from
the demands of effective dev~elopment of production. The groKing contingent
of new leader~, Wh3.ch gradua,lly will repla,ce at the steering wheel the
biological7,y dislodged rgpresentatives of the "oZcl gvard~" possibly trill
bring with it a nex spirit, a neK high level of culture and civilization.
Then a nex stage may begin in the develapment of China,~ the ter~dency of
xhlch it is impossible to anticipa,te~ for the prognosis deperxis on ma~r
e~cternal and intex~nal factors,
Ve i~arzists, xhoever xe may be, are e~xperiencing the preaent tragedy of
the Chinese people, plunged into ma,ny misfortunes and sufY'erings by the
group under I~lao Zedong. It is na,mely because near arxi dear to us are its
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_ interests, the interests of the Chinese revolution, the interec~ts of the
unity of progressive forces ~hroughout the world~ tha,t w~ are defending
and upholding the genuine intereats of a great peaple, Unly this will
make it possible to preserve with colossal la,bor the attained alliance with
the progressive and revolutionary part of the Qhinese na,tion, and not
puah i+ to the insidioLS but, alas~.so strong arms of the n~,tionalis~s.
China ia not simply a river, It ie a sea of peopleo ~Phat can hwnanity
expect t= ~m this sea? A storm? Ri:mbles in the sI~y? Or gradua,l develop-
ment, based. on intensifica,tion of industrial and social progress~ similar
to th~,t whi.ch is occurring in ~ther na,ti~~ns, Without glancing fax into
the f~zture we want to believe that this sea sooner or later will flow
into the great ocean of com~minist civilization, to which the flxture belongs,
FOOTNOTES
- 1. See: G. Apalin, "Beiji.ng: Politics of Militar~ism and Fanning the
Flames of War," MEZHDUNARODNAYA ZHIZN', 1978; 3, and also
0. Borisov, "The Hegemonistic Policy of Beijing in the Far East,"
MEZHDUNARODNAYA ZHIZN', 1978, No 9, and V. Vanin, "Beijing and the
~hinese Emigration," MEZHDUNARODNAYA ZHIZN', 1978, No 7.
2. See~ "China. Under Ma,o Zedong," KOMMUNIST, 1977, No 12~ arui also
A. Kruchinin, V. Feoktistov~,"How Mao's Successors Ba,ttle Against
_ Socialism and Its Allies," RbkIlK[JNIST, 1978~ No. 5.
3. Borisov describes the~extremist foreign policy of the PRC as
social-~iiauvi,nism. We axe putting analogous content in the concept of
radical-nationa,lism (sees 0. Borisov, "Along a Well-worn Rut,"
_ KiOMMUNIST~ 1977r Noo 9).
4, K, Marx and F, Engels, "Soch." [Wc~rks]~ Vol. 4, po 450.
COPYRIGHT~ Izdatel'stvo PRAVDA~ VOPROSY FIIDSOF'II~ 1980 .
10908 ~
CSO~ 1800
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NATIONAL
~
REGIONAL FORECASTING OF POPiiLATION, ETHNIC PROCESSES
Leningrad IZVESTIYA VSESOYUZNOGO GEOGRAFICHESKOGO OBSHCHESTVA in Russian .
No 5,1979 pp 403-409 .
-a
[Article by B. M. Ekkel': "The Regional Population Forecast and E`thnic
Processes"]
[Text] One o� the most important tasks where population geography is ac-
tively involved in a solution is the task of a long-range forecast for the
distribution of the nation's population. The forecasting of the population
which acts as a most i.mportant component in the spatial systems axising as
e. result of the interaction of natural conditions, the economy and popula- -
tion at present is assuming particulaxly impor-cant significance.
Considering that the aim of social production in a socialist sor,iety ulti-
mately is the f~zllest satisfaction of all the needs of its members, as well
as that the distribution of the population in the vaxious parts of the
country hc~s formed in the process of extended historical development and is
marked by a substantiel "conservativeness" of the most general features of
this distribution, a long-range forecast of the size of the population (and
- particularly the lab~r contingents) to a significant degree will correct
- the forecast for the development of the regional economies of the USSR.
This in no way plays down the significance and possibilities of planning
efforts on the optimum redistribution of the population between the regions
of the country.
For forecasting the population of a region, a number of modeis can be used,
and these include a demographic model, a model of the migration balance and
a model of the population's employment which directly establishes the rela-
tionship between the number of ~obs a.nd size and structure of the population
(4]. It must be emphasized that the demographic model is the most constant,
"base" mpdel, while the remaining models can have a more "flexible" nature,
they are marked by multivariance, and to a greater degree are complimentary
to the demographic model. This emphasizes its determining role for fore-
casting the alreac~y existing population of a region.
For constructing a forecast of the population in our~multinational country
and its individu~.l parts over an extended period, a substantial role is
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~J
played by the census, by the ratio and distribution of the peoples populat-
ing it and the change in the characteristics of these peoples over time [5].
- The forecasting of the national composition of the population of the nation
an d its individual regions for the purposes ot forecasting the populatiion
per se, and the population as a component cf the man--econoiqy--nature sys-
tem has particular importance for the following factors.
l. The various peoples are in different stages of a"demographic transi-
tion" [3], and this determines the various types of the natural movement of
th e population, and, in turn, this influences the size of the nationalities,
th e age-sex structure, the size of the family,, and so forth [5).
2. To a varying degree different peoples participate in migration proces-
ses. For this reason over the foreseeable future, the national composition
~ of the USSR population to a significant degree will influence the possi-
bilities of the redistr~ibution of the population between the regions of -L-he
country, particularly ~hose with labor surplusses and labor shortages [10].
3. As a result of the deepening process of the ethnic merging of the
_ peoples in the USSR, the number of nationally mixed fa.milies is growing,
and the indicators for the na-tural and mechanical movement for these fami-
lies, as well as their difference from the corresponding indicators for the
fe.milie3 of a uninational composition, still have not been given proper at -
tention by the researchers. ~
A ma~ority of the types of huisan activity to one degree or another
possesses an ethnic cast, be it the labor skills and domestic features
which have accumulated historica]1y in the ethnos, or the specific features _
of the effect of the ethnos on nature [1.~5]. This, in turn, cannot help
.but influence the nature of the long-range employment of the population and
th e territorial structure of the econoiqy, housing construction, the consump-
tion structure, and the specific transformation and conservation of the en-
, vironment in regions wi~h a differing national composition of the popula-
tion.
5. The guiding line of the party and government in nationality relation-
ships is the flourishing and merging of all the peoples of the USSR and
ac hieving the actual equality of peoples in all areas of state and cultural
construction. In this context, the placement a.nd level of socioeconomic ~
development among the various peoples of our country for an extended time
to come will influence the distribution of centralized capital investments.
Undoubtedly, the designated factors cover only the most important aspects
which determine the necessity of fbrecasting the size, ratio and distribu-
tion of the Soviet peoples.
In addition to the differences in the natural movement of the population and
the national composition of the migrants, the change in the national compo-
sition of the population in the different regions of the USSR is strongly
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influenced by ethnic processes (here and below in their narrow meaning, that -
is, the processes leading ultimately to a change in the ethnic affiliation
of peopl.e). Let us exemine in more detail the spatial aspects of these
processes directly linked with the territorial Peatures of the distribution
of the peoples and their quantitative relationships.
Interethnic contacts and the related ethnic processes have occurred with
- varying intensity in all stages of human history. As a rule, interethnic
contacts occur under the condition.of ~ co~aon or contiguous territory of
the interacting peoples. " basic variations of the territorial inter-
action of peoples a stinguished: border an~i integral contaet [8].
_ With a border_e act there is an inter~ction of the peoples in the zone
of the et~n
c border, and compaxatively sma11 groups of the peoples in con-
tact"~are involved in the interaction. An integral contact arises with a
ma,jor territorial shift of the peoples ox their individual groups. The -
_ ethnic contacts which develop as a result of such a territorial shift in-
- volve large masses of the peoples in contact.
In our.country both territorial varieties of interethnic contacts are widely
represented, and. in a number of instances they are superimposed one on the
other and are difficult to differentiate.
Under the conditions of multinational r~gions, it is essential to know the
direction and rate of~occurrence of the ethnic processes depending upon the -
_ ratio of the number of peoples in contact.and the level of "disperseness"
and the~rec~.procal penetration of the peoples "one with the other."
Let us exami.ne a certain territorial unit in which there is an international
eontact of ethnic g~oup (A) with a surrotinding people of different nation-
ality. For our purposes, it is most.suitable to divide the territory int~
elementary cells of intensive popul~tion contacts (ETC) which are compre-
_ hensive regions having complete sets of the functional subregions neces- -
sary for the~daily life and activities of the adult working part of the in-
habitr~nts [16]. Here we would assume that all the ethnic groups in the
studied territorial unit live mixed together, and the probability of the
establishing of contact between any two individuals does not depend upon
their national affiliation. The first condition is best satisfied by tbe
large industrial cities and new cities which create "internatianal cente�...:."
The realizing of the second condition.is a question of the d~sl;ant futw a,
and.depends upon a~reakening of the national aspect in the life of the ~,opu-
lation, although a whole series of reseaxchers even now has noted a teniency
toward its weakening. The established ETC are the operational units for the .
regional forecast of the population, since Por precisely these territorial
cells it is possible to construct balance models of population employment;
the demographic a.nd ethnic str.ucture of the population in the ETC (consider- ~
ing the long-range changes in its territory) are the real basis for the re-
maining types of forecast models. The most suitable for the ETC is the pro-
cedure proposed by ethnographers for calculating the theoretical probability
- of the coneluding of international marriages between the representatives of
different ethnoses [2~11] and which has al.reac~y been tested out and amended
in a series of research [ 6, 7, 14
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y .
1. DO ~
f
Q 80 ~Z
. ~
0.60 ~
_ . , / .
0. ~0 ~ .
~
O.ZO
/ / .
0 0.2d 0. 40 0. 60 D. BO 1. 00 s
Fig. 1. Theoretical grobability of the establishing
. of interethnic contacts for an ethnic group -
depending upon its share in the population of a region. -
All contacts in the region can be considered as 1.00. x--the share
of the ethnic group in the region's population; y--the share of
contacts of the ethnic group in all the contacts of the population
in the region; 1--the total number of contacts in the given ethnic
group, 2--intraetYmic contacts, 3--interethnic contacts.
The designated studies were based on the notion that the theoretical proba-
bility of a combination of two independent phenomena equals the product of
the frequencies of each phenomenon individual.ly, that is, the product of the
share of bachelors of nationality i in a11 the bachelors of the region by
_ ~~he share of brides of nationality ,j in al'1 the brides of the same region
[2]. In practiee we often do not have data.available on the national affil- _
iation of those entering maxriage, and the ethnic processes in no way can
be reduced to ,~ust the marriage and fami.ly contacts. Proceeding from this,
the theoretical probability of the establishing of interethnic contacts be-
tween the~representatives of ethnic group (A), independently of their na-
tional affiliation, can be calculated as the product af the share of tlie
ethnic group (A) in the entire population of the ETC (PA) by the~share re-
maining for the rema.ining population of the ETC (1.00 - PA):B = Pp.�(1.00 - PA).
_ For example, if the share of ethnic group (A) in the population of the ETC
is 0.35, then considering all the possible ethnic contacts in the region as
1.00, and the number of gossible contacts of etYuiic.group (A) equal to 0.35,
, we find the theoretical share of the interethnic contacts for ethnic group
(A): 0.35�(1.00 - 0.35) = 0.2275.
The theoretical share of the intraethnic contacts of ethnic group (A) is
determined as 0.3500 - 0.2275 = 0.1225.~
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Fig. 1 traces the theoretically probable share of interethnic conta.cts for
ethnic group (A) depending upon its share in a region's population. The
curve for intraethnic contacts is describ~d by the equation Y1= X?, and thc
~~~rve of interethnic contacts is described by the equation Y2 =-(x-0.5)2 +
0.25, where 0.00 ~ x< 1.00. The graph illustrates well the pattern that the
smaller the share of the ethnic group in the population of the ETC, the -
greater the share of the contacts of this ethnic group which fa11s on the
surrounding foreign groups.
_ The obtained pattern cannot be used directly to postulate the results of
the ethnic processes, since in addition to the already indicated constraint
- conditions, among the ethnic groups in contact the sex and age composition
- can not only vary significantly (this in principle could be eliminated in
examining the ratio of assumed bachelors and brides), but also the result-
ing national composition af the population in the ETC is determined in two
- st~.ges: 1) the nationally mixed maxriages, 2) the national self-�
determination of children born in nationally mixed families.
y �
1.00
�a
. ,t
o. ao .
o.so
. .
� ~ -
- Q40 ~ . . ~ ~
. . ~
.
. ~
. 0.20 ~ ~
~
.
0 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 f.00 s
Fig. 2. Ratio of theoretical probability and
actually occurring number of births in
national~y mixed faanilies (Udmurt ASSR, Russians).
_ x--share of ethnic group in population of terri~orial cell;
y--share of births in nationally mixed families; 1--theoretical.
probability of the birth of a child in a nationally mixed
family, 2--administrative rayons, 3--cities.
But still, if the theoretical probabi]_ity of the interethnic contacts does
not fully describe the ethnic processes, it is significantly correlated
with them. As an illustration o~ the above stated, let us examine the ratio
of the theoretical probability of the interethnic contacts and the actually
occurring share of the number of children born in nationally mixed fatriilies -
among the children born for which at least one of the parents was Russian,
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~ in the rayons and large cities of the Udmurt ASSR (Fig. 2). Since each 10
youths oF one nationality can create 10 nationally mixed families, but not
- more tYian 5 uninational ones, the theoretical probability of birth in a~
n~tionally mixed fami].y will ~e calculated from the following formuln,:
2-2x
, yp = 2-X 100,
.
whc~re x--the shr~re of the ethnic group (A) in the popult~.tion of the rep;ion. ~
It~~rarclles:; of thc~ exi~ting dispersion of points on the graph and t;he s:i ~nif-
icant cleviation from the theoretical values, it is beyond dispute thitit the
actual number of births for R~ssians in the nationally mixed families in the
Udmurt ASSR rather well correlates with the share of Russians in the popula-
= tion of an administrative rayon or city, and this applies particulaxly to
the large cities. The correlation dependence is most successful.ly described
by a second-order parabola. However, we assume that the actual dependence
~ ascertained on the basis of the ETC on a graph will be closest to a hyper-
~ bola with a symmetrical axis y= x. This reflects the intensification of
the ethnic processes, when the share of the ethnic group in the population
is either completely insignificant, or decisively predominates over the
share of the foreign groups around (the processes of assimilation or assimi-
lating).
The nature of the foreign surro~ndings of a people also influences the
. amount of the deviation of the actua.l frequency of births in nationally
mixed fa.mili.es from the theoretical probability of interethnic contacts,
in addition to the choice of the territorial cell for studying these con-
tacts. For considering the latter factor, using the concept of a"coeffi-
cient of desirability" of interethnic contacts could be of great signifi-
cance [6,7,11~~ and this shouT.d be calculated for each pair of peoples in
~ A territorial aspect.l This is a sub~ect of special research.
The concept of the theoretical probability of interethnic contaets makes it
possible to approach another important problem, that is, assessing the com-
plexity or patchyness of the national composition of a region's population. ~
The con~ept of the patchynes5 index of natio~al composition was for the
first time proposed by V. V. PokShish�evskiy [12], and of the works on the
constructing of a patchyness .index for cities we cou13 meni;ion the article `
- of L. F. Monogarova [9]. We have used a patcY~yness index ,for the national
composition of a region's population2 (in the ideal of the ETC) reflecting
lOne of the first statistical indicators of this sort is the indices of
"attraction" and "aversion" of M. V. Ptukha [13], with which it is possi-
ble also to analyze ethnic contacts.
- 2Without considering the territory of contact under the name of the socio- ,
i
~ f~i)'
ethnic density in the form S- r-~� t00, where ni--the size of national
group i, K--the number of national groups, N--the size of the population
in the region, the index formulated by E. Piasecki in 1964 [17].
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the ttieoretica:L probability of the interethnic contacts, if the intensity
of these contacts were caused solely t~y the ratio of the ethnic groups in
contact [15~
. ~ -
f a ~ - ~ T.~~
Jol
where M~--the patchyness index for the national composition of the popula-
tion of region
n--the number of ethnic groups living in region
ni--the share of ethnic group i in the total number of the population
livin~r in region
Using the given patcY~yn~ss index, it is possible to compare the level of
the multinationality of a population on different territories, and to ,judge
the patct~yness of the national composition of the population in the regions
over time. Moreover, using the patchiness index of the national composi-
tion of the gopulation it is possible to compare the theoretical and practi-
cs1 spread of interethnic contacts within the limits of the ETC.
On the basis of the published materials of the 1970 All-Union Census, we
have examined the ratio of the patch,yness level of the national composition
of a population in tfie-national-autonomous formations of the USSR with the -
spread of nat~onally mixed families (Fig. 3). Regardless of a certain
hypothetical nature of the comparison made (the ps.tchyness index and the
share of nationally mixed families are given not for the ETC,~but rather
for the entire undivided territory of the national autonomous formation),
out of the a~gregate of national autonomous formations we have selected
those where a significa.nt portion of the population is comprised of repre-
sentatives of peoples which because of particular features of everyday life
and culture and the existin~ experience of international contact, as a rule,
tuke a ra,ther active part in the various forms of in'terethnic interaction
- up to including family and marriage relations. Thus, the northern and Far
Ea.stern national~-autonomous formations sta~d out in an i~creased share of
nationally mixed families, and here the population has been formecl predom-
inantl~r of rnigrants from the E~a.ropean portion of the country (Russians,
Ukrainians, Belorussians, peoples from the Volga Region, and others) and
- representatives of the indigenous nationalities. At present, here there is
- occurring a process of the assimilation of the ethnic groups and a reduc-
tion in the values of the patchyness index of the national composition of
the population [15~.
We assume that in constructing the regional population forecasts, the em-
ployed demographic model can be broken up into a series of models according
to the nationality principle. The forecast of a region"s population should
consist of the population forecasts for the individual nationalities with
an obligatory subdivision into urban and rural inhabitants. This corres-
ponds to the differing type~ of the natural movement oY the population.
The elaboration of the forecasts for the individual national groups re-
quires a thorough reorganization of current'statistical reporting and census
data which,to a maximum degree shoul~d be presented in an ethnic breakdown. ~
2~.
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~P.,~ dl
C . " , .
0.90 � ~ 0.90 ~
,
- O.dO Q80
0.70 0.70 ~ -
~ Q 60 0.60
~ 0.30 p.sp
- 0.40 0.40
Q30 0.30
aao azo
o. t~ a ~o
0 p
M
C �
I~'i~;. 3. Ratio of the patchyness level of the national composition . -
of the popuiation in the national-autonomous formations of the USSR
with the spread of nationally mixed families.
N--patchyness index of the national composition of the population,
C--the share of nationally mixed families in all families;
1--Jewish AO [Autonomous Oblast], 2--Karelian ASSR, 3--Khanty-
Mansi A0, 4--Komi ASSR, S--Chukchi NO [Natiorial Okrug], 6--Karyak ~
N0, 7--Khak~,ss A0, 8--Nenets N0, 9--Taymyr N0, 10--Komi-Permyak_N0,
_ 11--Yr3malo-Nenets N0, 12--Evenk N0, 13--Yakut ASSR, 14--South~
Ossetian A0, 15--Adzharian ASSR, 16--Adygey A0, 17--Abkhas A~SR, ~
- 18--North Ossetian ASSR; 19--Gornyy Altai A0, 20--Bashkir ASSR,
21~-Udmur~t ASSR, 2~--Nakhichevan ASSR, 23- Ust'-0rdynskiy NO,~
2~+--Chuvash ASSR, 25--Buryat ASSR, 26--Mordvinian ASSR, 27--
Kabardino-Ba.lkar ASSR, 28--Karachai-Cherkess ASSR, ~9--Kaxakalpak
ASSR, 30--Ka,lir.yk ASSR, 31--Tuva ASSR, 32--Mari ASSR, 33--Tatar
ASSR, 34--Gornyy Badakhshan A0, 35--Aginskiy (Buryat) N0, 36--
Checheno-Ingush ASSR, 37--Degest~an ASSR, 38--Karabau A0.
For the possibility of considering the results of ethnic processes in the
~ forecast (in 1970, 13.5 percent of the families in the USSR were nationally �
mixed, anc3 this percentage was significantly higher among the families be-
ing formed), it is essential to work out a special model of the ethnic
processes. In c:,s article a possible approach to constructing such a model
has been presented in a general form. .
We must particularl,y'caution against a mechanistic approach to analyzing
e~:hnic processes. For simplifying the model, we have viewed them in the
narrowest sense. In actuality, in addition to the "abrupt-shift" transition
26
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from one national affiliation to another, there are equally essential
"ethnoevolutionary changes in the ethnos" ([1], p 153). And the latter
play possibly not such a marked role in changing the characteristics of
peoples, but over the long run the failure to consider them can to a si~-
nificunt degree influence the accuracy of the forecast. In the ideal the
_ model of ethnic processes, like a demographic model, should consider:
1) the processes of a weakening of national aspects in the life of the pop- -
ulation (like the temporary strengthenings of these aspects at certain
stages); 2) the spread of the features of the urban way of life and the
evening aut of national features by them; 3) the reciprocal penetration of
the national cultures of the Soviet p~oples and the selection of the par-
ticular features of everyday life and the econom~y which are most successful
for the existing social and natural milieu, and certain other aspects.
_ It is essential to point out that both in the migration model and to a great '
degree in the model of population employment, the fixin~ of ethnic aspects
is also of substa.ntial significance. At present, without considering the
national composition of the population, we cannot construct either a popula-
tion forecast or the particular forecasts of the natural movement of the
population, migration, urbanization, environmental conservation, and much
else. .
BIBLIOGRA.PHY
[1] Bromley, Yu. V., "Etnos i Etnografiya" [Ethnos and Ethnograpt~y],
Moscow, Nauka, 1973, p 283.
[2] Gantskaya, 0. A., Debets, G. F., "On the Graphic Depiction of Results
. from a Statistical Survey of International Marriages," SOVETSKAYA
~TNOGRA~'IYA, No 3, 1966, pp 109-119.
~3] Kvasha, A. Ya., "Proble~}r Ekonomiko-Demograficheskogo Razvtiya SSSR"
. [Problems of the Economic Demographic Development of the USSR],
Moscow, Statistika, 1974, 179 naaes.
[4] Kovalev, S. A., "~n a System of Forecast Models in Population Geogra-
phy," VESTN. MGU. SER. GEOGR., No 3, 197~+, pp 31-36.
~5~ Kozlov, V. I., "Dinamika Chislennosti Narodov (Metodologiya
Issledovaniya i Osnomyye Faktory)" [Population Dynamics ~(Methodology
of Research and Basic Factors)), Moscow, Nauka, 1969, ~?06 pages.
[6] Kozenko, A. V., Monogarova, L. F., "Statistical Study of the Indica-
tors of Uninational and Mixed Maxriage in Dushanbe," SOVETSKAYA
ETNOGRAFIYA, No 6, 1971, pp 112-119. . _
[7) Kucheryavenko, N. N., "On the Question of Studying International Mar-
riages in the Right Ba.nk Regions of the Tatax ASSR," GEOGRAFICHESKIY _
SBORNIK, Kazan', No 4, 1969, pp 112-118.
~ 27. .
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[8] Kushner, P. I., "Ethnic Territories and Ethnic Boundaries," TR. IE AN -
SSSR [4lorks of the Ethnography Institute of the USSR Academy of Sci-
ences], Vol 15 (New Series), Moscow, Nauka, 1951. ~
[9] Monogarova, L. F., "Comprehensive Typolo~r of Cities in Tadzhiki~tan ~
in Li~ht of the Problems of the Ethnic Patchyness of Thcir Popula-
tion," SOVETSTCAYA FTNOGRAFIYA, No 6, 1972, pp 52-53.
[10] Perevedentsev, V. I., "On the Influence of Ethnic Factors on the
Territorial Redistribution of the Population," IZV. AN SSSR. SF.Ei.
GEOGR., No 4, 1965, pp 31-39.
. [11] Pershits, Yu. I., "On the Method of Comparing Uninational and Mixed ~
Marriage," SOVETSKAYA ETNOGRAFIYA, No.4, 1967, pp~129-137.
[12] Pokshishevskiy, V. V., "Ethnic Processes in the USSR Cities and
Certain Problems of Their Study," SOVETSKAYA ETNOGRAFIYA, No 5, 1969,
pp 3-15. ~
~13] Ptukha, M. V., "Indeksy Brachnosti. Etyud po Teorii $tatistiki ,
Naseleniya" [Marriage Indexes. Study on the Theory of Population
Statistics], Kiev, 1922 (Reprint). . -
(1.4] Smirnova, Ya. S., "Nationally Mixed Marriages of the Karachayevo-
Cherkessia Peoples," SOVETSKAYA ETNOGRAFIYA, No 1+, 1967, pp 137-14~3.
[15] ~kkel', B. P+I., "Determining the Patchyness Index of the National~Com- ~
. position of Republics, Krays and Oblasts of the USSR," SOVETSKAYA
ETNOGRAFIYA, No 1976, pp 33-42.
[16] Ekkel', B. M., "On Isolating the Elementary Territorial Cell of In-
tensive Popula~ion Contacts," VESTN. MGU. SER. GEOGR., No 6, 1976,
pP 46-51. ~
(17] Piasecki, E., Charakterystyka liczebnosci ludaw.swiata i.proba analizi ~
- zwartosci etniczne,j terytori8w, CZASOPISMO GEOGRAFICZNE, Vol 35, No 1,
1964, pp 73-85. ~
CC)PYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nauka", "Iz~restiya Vsesoyuznogo geograficheskogo
obshchestva", 1979
L o272
CSO: 1800 ~
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~
REGIONAL
_ BOOK ON UZBEKISTAN'S POSITION AI~NG THE SOVIET REPUBLICS
Tashkent UZBEKISTAN V YEDINOY SEM'YE SOVETSKIKH RESPUBLIK [UZBEKISTAN IN
THE UNITED FAMILY OF SOVIET REPUBLICS) in Russian 1978 signed to press
29 Mar 78 pp 1, 229-241, 246, 247
[Table ot Contents and Chapter 8 of book by N. D. Khudayberdyyev, Izdatel'
- atvo "Uzbekiatan", 247 pages, 10,000 copiesJ
[Text] Table of Contents ~
Leninist Course �3
~ Fruits of Socialist Industrialization 31
Cotton--Our Pride, Our Glory 79
Scale of Construction 154
Our Sovist Way of Life 176
Improving Management of the Economy 203
International Ties of Uzbekistan 229
_ ~
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Internatio~al Ties of Uzbekistan
Uzbek SSR~ like all of the other Soviet republica, actively participatea with
equal rights in the development of the foreign policy of ~~he Soviet govern-
ment, in the adoption of legislative acts relating to questions of interna-
tional life and in the ratification and denouncement of internatianal trea-
tiea~ agreemente and conventions.
Our Soviet Union is a multinational state. And experience has shown that
the basic features of the federative structure of the USSR has fully ~usti-
fied itself. Noting thie in an address at the May (1977) Plenum of the
CPSU Central Committee, Comrade L.I. Brezhnev subsequently emphasized that
to the eovereign righte guarded by the USSR, there are "added new ones, such -
as the right of the republics' participation in the solution of questions by
union organs relating to the jurisdiction of the USSR."51
In the Council of the Union of the USSR Supreme Soviet, Uzbek SSR is repre-
sented by 35 deputies and in the Council of Nationalities of the Supreme
Soviet--by 43 deputiea. Uzbek SSR hae three representatives chosen to tlae
Permanent Com~i.saion for Foreign Affaira of the Council of the Union of the
USSR Supreme Soviet. Two representatives of iJzbekistan have been chosen to
the Permanent Commiasion for Foreign Aff airs of the Council of Nationalities.
The Chairman of the :residium of Uzbek SSR Supreme Soviet hae been choaen ~
Deputy Chairman of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet, the first seo-
retary of the Central Committee of the Comaaunist Party of Uzbekistan--a mem-
- ber of the Presidium of Che USSR Supreme Soviet. The Chairman of the Uzbek
SSR Council of Ministers by virtue of his poaition is part of the Government
of the USSR.
Deputy to the USSR Supreme Soviet Dilqara Tashpulatova, a apinner at the
Namangan Silk Fab rics Combine imeni 50-Letiye Uzbekskmy SSR.was selected
Deputy Chairman of the Council of Nationalities of the USSR Supreme Soviet.
Thus, the official representatives of each union repub lic take part in the ~
preparation and implementation of the Soviet Union's foreign-policy actions.
Regardless of the form and methods of the foreign-policy activity of the
Soviet republics at the various atages of the development of the USSR, its
- nature has been and continuea to be the same--the implementation ef Lenin's
foreign policy and ensuring of f avorable international conditions f or the
building of so~ialism aY?d co~unism.
Representativea of the IIzbek people take an active part in the work of the
sesaions of the UN General Assemb ly. Official representatives of Uzbeki- -
stan,being on Che staffs or serving as leaders of USSR delegations, have
taken and continue to take an active part in the work of specialized UN or-
gans, as well as international conferences and meetinRs. They a~orthily re-
present the Soviet Union at many international forums. Such was the cese
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at the 19th Sesaion of the UN Economic Conmdssion for Asia and the Far East
(EKADV) in Manila, at the 31st Session of the UN Economic and Social Co~-
mission for Asia and the Pacific Ocean in Delhi, at the 37th Session of -
the UN Economic and Social Council (EKOS0.S) in Geneva, at the 7th Seseion
of the UN Economic Co~ieian for Africa' (EKI~ in Nairobi, at the Interna-
tional Canference in Support of the Peoples of Zimbabwe and Namibia in Ma-
puto and at a number of sessions of the United Nations Educatianal, Scien-
tific and Cultural Organi.zation (UNESCO).
Uzbek SSR is takinq an active part in the work of the Co~nission for Hwnan .
Rights, the International Labor Organization (IL~), the Inter~ational Demo- �
cratic Federation of Women (MDFZh), the World Federation of Democratic Youth
(VFDM) , the International Red Cross (I~K) , the Int~matianal Organization of
Journalists (MOZh), the World Federation of Linked Cities (VFPG) and others. _
Uzbekistan ie actively participating in the work of the Conmittee of Solid-
arity of the Countries of Asia and Africa (it includ~s a permanent repre-
sentative of Uzbek SSR) and the Comanittee of Solidaritq of Writers of the
Countries of Asia and Africa. ~
T A ponderable contribution to the struggle of the Soviet people f.or security
and peace among peoples is being made by the Republic Comnittee in Defense
of Peace, the Uzbek Com~ittee of Solidarity of the Countries of Asia and
- Africa and the Uzbek Society of Friendship,and G~ltural Ties with Foreign
_ Countries. ~
Our republic is increasingly frequently becoming a place for international
meetinga. And we are rightfully proud of the fact that the capital of sun-
~ ny Uzbekistan--Tashkent-=has become a symbol.of friendship and peace. In
- 1958, when a Conference of Writexs of the Countries of Asia and Africa was
= held here. the voice of international solidarity, then figurativel,y called
the "spirit of Tashkent," could be heard loudly. Hete Gome public figures,
scfentists and specialiats from the entire world for 3oint discussion of
important scientific and social prob lems. In the period from 1965 to 1976
alone, more than 80 international~semi~ars and symposiums were held in our
republic.
With ~ach year, there is an increasing.flow of foreigners arriving here for
the purpose of becoming acquainted with our life and with our successes
achieved in the years af the Soviet power. The Uzbek people receive with
. the hospitality that is characteristic of them prominent party and state
figures of Asia, Africa, Europe and America, parliamentariana, diplomats,
correspondents, men.of science, culture and art, a~ well as touri.sts. ii~
1976 alone~ the republic was visited by 617 foreign delegations consisting
of 4,239 persons and 90,000 touriats. .
Our tourists are also going abroad. Also in 1976, more than 8,000 persons
visited more than 30 foreign countries. ~
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Uzbek SS R w ith its multifaceted, highly developed economy makes a marked
contrib ution to the expansion of the international economic ties of the .
Soviet Union. The republic exporta many of its goods and imports products
that it needa from other countries.
Goods of our repub lic appeared for the firat time on the international mar-
ket in 1932. Eightq percent of ita exports at that time consisted of cotton
fiber and only a emall share ~aas made iip of agricultural machinery and med-
icinal preparatione.
Today Uzbekistan supplies aets of machines and equipment for chemical cotton
cleaning and textile enterprises, large hydroengineering structures, mach-
ines for sowing, cultivating and harvestin~ cotton, exc~vators, compressors,
overhead cranes, diesel enginea, cable products, electronic instruments, -
radio tubea, motion-picture equipment, hydrometric instruments, transformer
subatations, pumps, hard_.alloys, refrigerators, cotton fiber, furs and~
much else--a tota~ of 130 descriptions of various products of heavy and light
industry. More than 220 of the repub lic's largeat enterprises work on
exports.
' Tn 1976, Uzbek SSR within the framework of the Soviet Union's ~eneral ex-
ports supplied its products to 60 countries of the world, includinp ~16 coun- ,
tries of Europe, 18 of Asia, 18 of Africa and 8 of America. Seventy percent
of its exports go to socialist countries.
The popularity of manufa~tured produc~s bearing the inseription "Made in
Uzbekistan" is largely promoted by international fairs and exhibitions
where many of our groducts are highly rated. Thua, the Vostok spinning-
twi~sting mac~ine manufactured by Tashtekstil'mash and also the silk PK-100ShL
spinning-twisting machine, Uzbek grape wines and furs have repeatedly been ,
riwarded gold medals: Products shown in Leipzig, Casablanca, Paris, Tokyo,
London, Rio de Janeiro, Izmir, Algiera, Bucharest, Madras, Mexico, Teheran,
- llelhi, Damas cus, Brussela, Stockholm, Goteborg and other cities have inevit-
ably drawn the interesta of representatives of foreign business circles.
Foreign countries readily exhibit their products in Uzbekistan. In 1976, ~
the inhabitants of our republic had the opportunitp of becoming acqusinted
with the exhibitions: Orgtekhnika-76 [Office Equipment-76] of the Japanese _
firm of Tc~kyo-Boeki, products o� the Polish Tekstylilteks Foreign Trade
Enterprise, laboratory equipment and measu~ring instruments of the Hun~arian
`~etrimpecs Foreign Trade Association and with exhibitiona of inedical appar-
atus and cotton-ginning equipment of different countries.
Responsibility for the development of foreign~ trade relations liea with the
Uzbek SSR Chamber of Trade and Industry [Torgovo-promyshlennaya palata),
which has been since 1969 a member of the Afro-Asian Or~anization of T:con-
omic Cooperatian (AFRAZES). This international non-governmental organiza-
tion includes the trade, industrial and agricultural chambers of 49 coun-
tries of Asia and Africa. ~
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Uzbekietan togetiier with the other repiblics of the USSR contributes to the
strengthening of the national economies of developing states.
The largest hydrcelectric puwer station in Afghanistan has been erected at
Nagla (near Kabul) with th~ assiatance of Uzbek planners and specialiets.
5redazgiprovodkhlopok Institute is actively participating in the plannin~ -
of irrigation systems in Algeria~ Syria, Iraq and other countries.
Ttae Dzhalalabad Irrigation Com~lex was built in Afghanistan on the Kabul
, River. It consists of a dam, a hydroelectric pawer station~ a reservoir,
arterial csnals, an i~rigation network, industrial end suxiliary enter~
prises and housing settlements.
Since April 1973, the Meskene in Syria has been under development. As many
as 600,000 hectares of new land are to be irrigated; this will double the
area of irrigated plawland in Syria. There is also being built a state
farm on an area of 4,000 hectares; here thin-fiber cottan ie to be culti-
vated. At the preaent time, the bigger part of the work has already been
completed.
In Iraq, specialists from Uzbekistan are doing large-scale work on improv-
- ing the water aupplq of tremendous areas of land in the lawer reaches of ~
the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
Geol~ogista of Uzbekistan are providing considerable assistance. to the
peoples of developing countries. Today they can be found in India, Afghan-
istan, Syria, Iran, Guinea, Bangladeah and other countries, where they have
been able to find new deposits of coal, nonferrous and rare metals, natural
gas and other mineral resourcea. Because of inercury deposits found by
Uzbek geologiste, a large ore mining and smelting combine is being built in
_ 'Algeria.
While supplying developing countries with necessary technical documentation
and equfpment, Uzbekistan at the same time is sending its specialists for
the purpose of install~tion and putting inta operation of industrial facil-
ities and also for the transmission of accumulated experience to local cad- .
res. At the present time, about 820 Uzbek specialists are working in 48 -
countriea at different installationa bein~ built with the technical cooperi
ation of the Soviet Union. -
Uzbekistan is providing significant aid in the training of national cadres
for developing countries. In 1961 there was opened at Tashkent State Uni-
versity~a~preparatory department, where peraons coming f rom the couatries
of Asia and Africa study the Russian language for continuation of trainin~ -
in the Soviet Union. During ~he years of this department's existence,
1,486 students from many countries were put out. In the WZ's of our re- ~
public hundreds of young men and women from 28 African and Asiaa countries
have already acquired specialties as engineers, irrigation specialists and
physicians.
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Ttie republic~s scientific and cultural ties with foreign countries ~;raa and
expand with each year. In 1976 alone, 55 of our scienti~ts and sc~.entific
aseociates visited abroad, where they took an active part in the work of
varioue internatianal ecientific forums.
~rhus~ acientists-chemist~ went to India to the 4tt? Indo-Soviet Symposium
and scientiats from phyaico-technical institutes--to tl~e United States.
TG~e trip of a delegation of leading scientists of. the Uzbek SSR Acaciemy of
Sciences headed by Preaident A.S. Sadvkov made a f ruitful trip to Poland.
In their turn, 90 delegations totalin~ 450 foreign scientista and special-
{sts, mostly from the United States, India, France, the FRC and Japan, in
turn we re received at scientific institutions of the Uzbek Academy of
Sciences.
International scientific ties are also maintained through the regular ex-
change of scientific literature, photocopies and manuscripts.
A number of scientists and specialists from socialist, capitalist and de-
velopin g countries have done prob ationary work at scientific-research in-
stituCes of the Uzbek SSR AcadecQy of Sciences. Thus a staff inember of the
U.S. Geological Service studied for 3(? years the achievements of Uzbek sci-
entists in the field of georl~emical farecasting; of earthquakes. The direc- ~
tor of the Institute of Chemistry of the Mongolian People's Republic did
his probationary work at the Institute of Chemistry of Plant Substances
researching alkaloids.
1'he work achievements of scientific collectives and individual scientists _
of Uzbekistan are knawn far beyond the boundaries of the Soviet Union. The
_ names of Vsevolod Romanovskiy, Kara-Niyazov, Abid Sadykov, Sabir Yunusov,
Kl~amdam Usmanov, Ubay Arifov, Yalkin Turakulov, Saged Sirazhdinov, Yakh'ya
Gulyamov, Galina Pugachenkova are hi~hly respected in acientific circles of
- various countries.
Uzbek s cientists are taking an active part in the work of international sci-
entific organizations. Academician of the Uzbek SSR Academy of Sciences
S.Kh. Sirazhdinovis a member of the Scientific Association of Mathematicians-
Statisticians (the Hague), Academician of the Uzb ek SSR Academy of Sciences
T. Zakhidow is a member of the International Zoological Academy in Agra (In-
dia), corresponding member of the USSR Academy of Sciences S.Yu. Yunusov is
- � a member of the G~rman Academy of Natural Science (Halle).
The opinions of our scientists are listened to; people collaborate witli ,
them in the working out of the most important problems of conCemporaneity.
International ties of the republic~s scientists will be further develeped
in the Tenth Five-Year Plan. Plans for 3oint research with Mongolian sci- _
entists are of broad scope--in physics, chemistry and mathematics, with
Polish colleagues--in cosmic-ray physics, with specialists of the GDR--in
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biophyeics and biochemistry. JoinC researches wi].1 also be carried out with
scientista of the United States--on solar energy and India--an the chemistry
of natural compounds.
The Academy of Sciences' main library is carrying on reciprocal exchange of -
publicaEions with foreign scientific institutions. This contrib utea to the
diasemi.nation abroad of truthful information on the cultural and scientific
achievements of Uzbekistan. In 1976, a total of 38 countries took part in
exchangea with the main library: 9 aocialist, 19 capitaliet and 10 develop-
ing countries. There were received 1,339 books and 2,363 periodicals and
continuing publications. In exchange 162 books and 5,462 periodical pub li-
catione were sent.
Of two academic ~ournals being published in Uzbekistan, two (GELIOTEKHNIKA
[Solar Power Engineering] and KHIMIYA PRIRODNYRH SOXEDINENIY [Chemistry of
= Natural Compotmds]) are regularlq reissued in the English lanAuage in the
United States. Ttiere also have been published in recent yeara in that coun-
try monographs of Academician of the Uzbek SSR Academy of Sciences U.A. Ari-
fon "Interaction of Ions with a~Metal Surface' and Doctor of Technical Sci-
ences D. Faqzullayev "Laminar Movement of Multiphase Media in Pipelines."
In the past ten years, the scientific and creative ties of Tashkent State
University have been expanded with ~11[JZ's and scientific ins titutions of a
number of foreign countries. It ie a member of the International Associa-
tiom of Universities and main tains contacts with Bei~ing (China), kan~oon
(Burma), Lucknaw and Delhi (India), Indiana (United States), Rab at (Idoroc-
co), Katmandu (Nepal), ~nis (Ztinis), Karachi (Pakistan) universities. Many
of Tashkent State iJniversity's professors and instructors have taught. in the
WZ's of India, Afghanistan, Vietnam and other countries. Ma~or scholars
of the university of the likes of professors T.Z. Zakhidov, A.S. Sadykov,
T.T. Tulyaganov, S.K. Mirkamalov and others have traveled to the United
States, Frances, England, India, Nepal and Cuba to establish scientific
contacts and read lectures.
Scholars of Afghaniatan, India, the GDR, Iraq, France, the United States
and other countries in their turn have taught at Tashkent Univessity.
ltie main library of Tashkent State University last year conducted book ex-
changes with 178 foreign institutions '_n more than 35 countries of the world,
from which it obtained 1,445 scientifi: k*orks.
The w riters of Uzbekistan also have broad internationaZ ties. A two-sided
meeting of Soviet and Colombian writers took place in our republic; there
also have been a creative meeting with participants of the 3rd International
Seminaz of Translators and Pub lishers of Soviet literature, Days of Macedon-
iazi Poetry, Days of Soviet Literature in Uzbekistan involving the participa- -
- tion of writers f�rom the countries of the socialist comanunity, a fouz~sided
meeting of writers from the USSR, India, Pak:istan and Bangladesh--parCici-
~ pants of the 5th Alma-Ata Conference.
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The USSR Writers Union and the Soviet Committee for Ties with ~driters of
the Countries of Asia and Africa ~ointly with ttie Writers Union of Uzbek- .
ietan aud the Republic Committee for Ties witli ~Jritera of. the Countries of
Asia and Africa held for the firat time in ttie history of the Afrn-Asian
movement ~n Taslikent a meeting of young writers of Che countrieg of ~1sj.a
and Africa. More than 80 peraons from 54 cduntries parti.cipated in it.
In tlie la8t three yeara, more than onf~ hundred foreign deleQations o� writ- .
ers and about 50 delegations, who camc~ to Uzbekistan for various public or-
ganizations, were Ruests of the i~riteis Union of l)zbekistan. In 1976, the
republic was visited by 12 foreign wr9 ters ~ delegatio~s, numbering 47
pe rs ons .
Ttie trips to Uzbekistan, creative disFutations with writers of the republic,
vieita to industrial enterprises and kolkhozes and meetings witli people are
often reflected in the works of foreifn writers. Thus, on the occasion of
the SAth-anniversary of Uzbek SSR, there was issued a book "Svetoch brat-
sCva" [Torchbearer of Brotherhood] wh~~se authors were writers of socialist
countries--participants of Daya of So~~iet Literature in Uzbekistan. The
achievements in the building of the.eronomy and culture of Soviet Uzbekistan
also find their reflection in a bcok 1-y the American artist and writer R1- _
ton /Feks/* "With the Eyes of a Black," the Senegalese writer Jean Briere
"Another World." In liulgaria, two boc~ks have been published by the well-
kuown poet Yordan Milev--"People and I?eserts" and "Eastern Poem." Many
stories and poetical worke have BpPPa"ed on the pages of the foreign
literary and art presa.
- Uzbek literature has received broad r~~cognition abroad. In recent years, ~
books of our auChors have been reissu~~d in tlie languages of more than 20 '
peaples of the world. The ~rowing pr~~atige of tlzbek books is borne out by
the participation nf Uzbe~:istan in in~.ernational book expositions.
Much work is being done by the republ.c's publiehin~ houses in t}ie dissemi-
nation of progresgive foreign literat~~re. Thus, the Publtshing Idouse imeni
G. Gulyam put oi~t in tlie.last three y~~ars more than 60 ~~orks by ~ariters of ~
the countries of Asia and A~rica. Thf~ recently formed Progress Publishin~
House is puttinp,. out Soviet belles le~:tres and political literature as well
as works of classical Uzbek literatur~~ in the languages of the peoples of
the countries oI Asia and Africa.
The pages of thc 3ournals 7.VEZDA VOSTQY.A ~nd SHARK YULDUZI have inclu~led cm
its pages 15 works by authors of the foreipn ~ast, includinp, from suct~ coun-
tries as the Philippines, Republic of South Africa, Ivory Coas~, Turkey, -
India, Kenya, Pakistan, i4ali, Guinea, Ghana and Vietnam. .
The development of friendly and cultural ties is promoted by tours of for- !
eign representatives of the arts in Uzbelcistan and artists of [TTbekistan
abroad. Last year, various collectiv~ collecCives of the republ.ic
traveled to 40 countries of ~urope, Asia and J.atin America. ~
* Name in slantlines is in transliterated form. I
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The Judges of t}ie Internatior~al Cinema Festiva in Delhi awarded the L~zbek
. director A. Y.hamrayev zs second prize the Silver Peacock for tt~e film
"Chelovek ukhodit za ptitsa^~i" [The Man Takes Care of. the fi ir.ds).
The Prize imeni /1t,du1'kasim Firduosi, set ~oinclv by the Soviet And
Iranian p~vernments in connection with tiie 50th anniversary of the estah-
lishment ~~f friendly relations between ttie two states, was awar~led in Tehe-
. ran to Professor Sh. Shamukhamedov, doctor of philological sciences, of
Tashkent State University for researctiing the creative tierita~e of Abdul~~
kasim Firdousi. and translating into the Uzbek lan~uaRe the poem "Shakhname."
. The Koplar Piiklosh Tfedal was araarded to Uzbek S.~R Honored Worker in Culture
and winne~r of the Prize imeni Khamza the Tashkent artist E~n Kalontarov
for art works created Uy him during the days of his visit to Iiungarv.
An import~nt role in the development of cultural ties is nlayed by brother
cities. Tashkent has become linked with the follo~wing cities: Patiala
(India) , F:arachi (Pakis tan~ , Tunis (Tunis) , Tripoli (Libya} , Marrakesh (rioroc-
co), Skopl~e (Yugoslavia), Seattle (United States); Almalyk has become
linked with the city of Kitwe (Zambia).
In develo~~ing ties with foreip,n countries, Uzbekistan is makin~ a worthy
contribiition to the realization of the Soviet ~overnment's policy of. peace- -
ful coexistence of states with different social systems and bolster.a the
cause of peace and friendship among peoplea.
COPY RIGHT; Izdatel'stvo "Uzbekistan", 1978
76y 7
CSO: 1800 END
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