JPRS ID: 9061 WORLDWIDE REPORT NARCOTICS AND DANGEROUS DRUGS

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CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6
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U
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61
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November 1, 2016
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REPORTS
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APPROVE~ FOR RELEASE= 2007/02/08= CIA-R~P82-00850R000200040054-6 ~8 1~80 ~ ~ 1 ur 3. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFIC'IAL USE ONLI' JPRS L%8885 28 Januar~; 1980 _ , Ja an Re ort p p _ CFOUO 3/80) _ FBIS FOREI~N BROADCA~~ INFORMATION SERVICE ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 NOTE JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are transl~ated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and - other characteristics retained. Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text] or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor- mation was summarized or extracted. ~ Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically o~ transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- - tian mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the _ _ original but have been supplied as appropriate in context. ' Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an item originate with the source. Times within items are as given by source. The contents of this publication ir~ no way represent the poli- ~ cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government. ' For further information on report content call (703) 351-30b7 (Japan, Korea, Mongolia); 351-2760 (~'ietnam, South and East Asia). C0~'YRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVEI~TING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/88$5 28 ~anuary 1.980 JA~AN REPO~T c~ovo 3rso) _ CONTENTS PAGE ~~.iTIC~., ,AND SDCIOIAGiCAi~ ' JAPAN TIl~:S' Den,ounces Soviet I.nvasioa i~ Afghanistan {~di~oria~; T~i~ JAPAN Tii~S, 5 3aa 8A) 1 _ JC~'s Mi3?amoto Speaks vn i~ternat~ona~ Si~~at#.oa ~dPS, 2 Jan 80) 4 .~CP's Miy.a,~t~o Spsa.~CS c~a iateraai Sitnatioa ~dPS, 3 Jan 8U) 8 - 'ASAHi' ~Views Couatry's Di~lomatic Difficulties in i980's (Editori.a~; ASAHi EVENING NE~TS, ifl Jan $fl) 11 P~olit~cs in the Dezade of Eighti.es Aaalyzed ~('~ario~ss so~srce~, 3, 4 Ja.n 80) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . Polities 19$0, ~'.diroriai - ~utur~ of (~ne-~arty Rule, Ed~torial - '.~APAN '~iP~1ES' Projet:ts Japanese Politizs in ~.9${i - {Miazoru Shimizu; Tf~E dAPAN TIMES, 1 Jan 8U) 19 F~r~eign 3+It.nister ~3kita ~nt~rvies+~d oa i98t~ Issues ~{4k~.ta iate~iew; TOKYl3 SHiP~~i~I, 3 daa $fl) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Ol~ira's Adsai.aistrative Refo~-m ~ep~ored (SHi~Kl~N SHINCHO, 15 Nov 79)..... 28 Keidanreu Rou~s LDP {Raisuke Hunda; !'HE ~AIL~ YOMiiJRI, 21 Dec 79)........... 31 - a - {II~ - ASIA - 111 FOUO~ FOR OFFICIAL USE OLdLY I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR :iFFICIAL USE ONLY CONTENTS (Cont~nued) Page 'JPS' Carries 'AKAHATA' Ed~.torial on Success of JCP-CPSU Talks (JPS, 27 Dec 79) 32 - JCP Adopts Resolution on New Year Activities (JPS, 14 Jan 80) 36 Midesst Envoys Issue Proposals After Tokyo Talks (Jl,il, 22 Dec 79) 39 'JAPAN TIMES' on SDF's Foreign Broadc~sts Monitoring Eapability - (THE JAPAN TIMES, 6 3an 80)> 42 Briefs ~ Siberian Development Aid 44 ECONOMIC Research Body Fredicts 1380 Growth Rate of 3.5 Percent (MAINICHI DAILY NEWS, 8 Jan 80)......~ 45 'MAINICHI' Editorial on White Paper on Economic Aid (Editorial; MAINICHI DAILY NEWS, 30 Dec 79) 50 _ MITI Calls for More Aid to Oil-Producing Natians (ASAHI EVENING NEWS, 22 Dec 79) 52 Government To Make Public Super-LSI Patents _ (NIHON KEIZAI SHIl~IBUN, 1 Jan 80) 54 5CIENCE AND TECHN~LOGY Japan's Kyoto University To Complete N-Fusion Device in January (THE JAPAN TIMES, 4 Jaa 80) 56 -b- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL AND SOC.T.OLOGICAL _ 'JAPAN TIl~S' DENOUNCES SOVIET INVASION IN AFGHANISTAN OW061215 Tokyo THE JAPAN TIl~S in Englieh 5 Jan 80 p 12 OW ~Editorial: "Soviet Power Play Imperils Peace"] [Text] The only word,_ that can possibly explain the soviet Union's brutal invasion of Afghanistan, which mocAQd detente and outraged the Moslem world, is "desperation." It became obvious to the Soviet Unioa that hard-~ine Marx3sti President Hafizollah Amin, who antagonized the predominately Moslem Afghenistan peo- ple, was losing the war against the inaurgenta. Soviet troop~ deposed him and bullets ended his life. Then the Soviet U~iion brought out of his exile in Czechoslovakia Babrak Karmal, who is ready to be the Moscow line and who promisea to abolish the abuaes of the "sangui~ary Amin band." But Karmal is not expected to rally the 50,000-man Afghan army, which ie ineffective as a fighting force and distrusted by the Soviet Union because of countl~sa defections to the rebel cause. The Soviet Union has taken over - the war with tanka, helicopters and an estimated SO,OOC troops with the in- tention of crushing the guerrilla forces in the Moslem fundamentalists. To retain its nearly two-yeax political control over Afghanistan, the Soviet Union resorted to force. The Kremlin was understandably nervoua about the Moslem revolution, which conquered Iran and inapired the Afghan rebels, infecting its own vast Moslem population. - . But the strategic importance of Afghanistan is more important to the Soviet t+nion than even its worry over the Moslem revoltuion leaping acrose its bor- der. Military contrvl of Afghanistan would place the Soviet Union in atrik- ing distance of the Persian Gulf and its vital gateway, the Strait of , Hormuz. It is speculated that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan is motivated by the Soviet Union's concern about the future need of Middle East oil and ig 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY part of its strategy to i-hreaten and dominate the Arab nations. A U.S. Cen- tral Intelligence Agency report claimed that the Soviet Un~on, now the w~rld's largeat oil producer, will become an importer of 3.5-4.5 million b3rrels of oi1 a day in the mid-1980s. Moet certainly the So~iet Union weighed in advance the conaequences of its ~ military intervention, which left detente a shambles and angered the Moslem w~rld, arid decided for ita own interests to defy interational opinion. President Jimmy C~rte~!s;reaction was awift and angry. He accused Soviet President.Leonid;Brezhnev of lying to him by claiming rhat the Soviet army _ - w~s iniviteJdin by Am~n who ;aas assassinated. Mr Carter condemned the Snviet Union for its "blatant violatio~ of internationally accepted rules of bghavior," and he withdrew the U.S. ambassador from Moscow. The U.S. furthe.~,intends to have the Sovi~t Union condemned by the United Nations and is plauning economic sanctions with its European allies--possibly a cutoff of credits and even a halt of U.S. wheat sales. And Mr Carter strongly implied that detente was in a very deep freeze. Also, _ the chances of the U.S. Senate ratifying the SALT II treaty, whi~h the Soviet = Union wanted, are fading fast. The damage to U.S.-Soviet relati4ns is in- calculable now but must be viewed with se~ious concern. But it is obvious that the Soviet Union will survive condemnations and e~?en severe economic and diplomatic presaures. This had to be taken into - ' cansideration before the Soviet Army came acrose the border into Afghani- - atan. The Soviet aggresaion is likely to have some other side-effects which most certainly wiZl work against its interests. In reaponse to the Soviet in- vasion, there was a verystrong spirit of unity found among the Nc~rth Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO~ allies when they met last week to diacuss mea- " sures to be taken against the Soviet Union. - The Soviet Union by clarifying its aggressive intentions in Afghanistan has - _ probably wrecked its carefu~l diplomatic efforts to divide NATO and keep its fc~rces underarmed. Western Europe, after all, cannot have forgotten the early aggreasions of the Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy which ~ed to World War II. - Also, the United States, which had been considering the strengthening of its _ forces in the Gulf and MIddle East area, now will be propelled into massing , greater forces near the oil fields which could become the focus of a U.S.- Soviet power struggle. The U.S. has already sounded out countries in the Middle East and Africa about the use of military facilities. , Furthermore, the Soviet Union by its act of aggression will strengthen the arguments;of President Carter and others that U.S. military power must be 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY s etrengthened in the face of a naw far more obvious Soviet menace. And words coming out of Waehington now are not in the aoft and moderate tonea of the post-Vietaam war period. Mr Carter's national security adviaer Zbigniew Brzezinski eaid the U.S. would use "armed force" if Soviet forces pour through the Rhyber Paes into Pakistan, which Moacow accuaea of traiaing and ~supplying the Afghan rebe~s. The U.S. aleo is proposing to supply weapone to Pakistan which ie being cautious about this offer becauae it co~sidered the U.S. an unreliable a?ly in the past. ` Mr Carter was correct in saying the Soviet invaeion of Afghani~tan ia "a grave threat to ~~eace." By its aggreasian, the Soviet Union has brought closer the danger of a global conflict to the despair of thos~ wtio work �or peace. ~ CSO: 4120 3 , FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 � FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL JCP'S MIYAI~OTO SPEAKS ON INTERNATIONAL SITUATION - O~i020955 Tokyo JPS ~n English 0855 GMT 2 Jan 80 OW - [Text] Tokyo, 2 Jan JPS--In an interview with the editor in chief of AKAHATA, ~ Toshio. Sakaki, pres~dium chairman of the Japanese Communist Party Kenji Miyamo'to'spoke about the world and Japanes~ situations in the 1980s. Ex- cerpts of the part c~n the international situation below (the pa.rt on the internation situation ia to be carried tomorrow): To Make An Era of 1980's a Naw Greatly Rapid Advance of the JCP Mlyamoto said that the intensification of international teneions continues in Asia and Europe due to maneuvers of the imperialist forces centering on the U.S. At the same time, the characterietics of the world situation ia that the forces of sociai, progrese, peace and national liberation are making headway as a whole. - In internationa].situa~i,ons too, as was shown by the election results (the general elPCt.ic+ns), the mal:-administration of the Liberal~Democratic Party h.~s invoked the people's firmly rooted criticism, and the situation is now maturing. That criticism of the mal-administration will inevitably rise. In this circumstance, there are maneuvers aimed at maintaining the con- servative political power by utilizing the right leaning opposition parties. But as a consequence, the force of defending the genuine interests of the - Japaneae people, Japanese genuine sovereignty and peace, and the Japanese Communiat Party in particular, are to play a greater role all the more in the 1980's, and it is sure that the condition and the activities for the gr.eat causs of establishment o� a progressiv~ united front and the coalition gover~ent baaed on this united front�will be inevitably matured and ba deve3:oped. We must develop our activities for this purpose. Qn SLCCeasive Downfall of Dictatorial Regimes The characteristics of the international situation, which are easy to under- stand, are that the reactionary regimes and dictatorial regimes supported by the U.S. have successiv~ly fallen down in recent years. 4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 I FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Precaut3an.sr not to repeat the failure werE comparatively strong in II.S. atrategy after the defeat in Indochina, but the II.S. recentlq has taken strang attiti~dea. We can say thie is its "impatience." The background of this ie that the U.S. etrategic poeition in Asia beCames stronger due ta China's support for the Japan-U.S. anilitary alliance= and that the conditi~on is there, that a kind of allied relationship between Japan, the U.S. and China has been established. � On the Situation in Indochina It was by studying in detail the then historical conditians tfiat we decided - to support the new people's administration in Cambodia. The Pol Pot regime, which was backed by China, made repeated aggressioas in the Western border o# _ Vietnam. The Vietnamese side proposed a ceasefire and talks oace and ag~lin, but the Pol Pot aide continued aggressions and pillages along the long border, even severing the diplomatic relations with Vietnam, and the pro- posal on taSks was disregarded. We studied these thorough~.~ via ARAHATA reporters there and other meaas. Then we were firmly couvinced that the Vietnameae counterroffensive was made~ from the proper position of .se1f- . defense, and that the rapid overthrow of the Pol Pot regime was the result of uprising of the Cambodian National IInited Front for Salvation, as well as the counter-offensive by Vietnam. We came out With our clear ~udgment that the so-called Vietnam's aggression agaia.st Cambod~a was out of the ques ~i~on . - On the Three Non-Nuc;lear Princ iples In Europe, a~lan to deploq new models of nuclear weapons to NATO countries - has become a big issue. A mass monement against the deployment has risen in ~'rance, Belgium aad others. The JCP ezpresses solidarity ~ith this strug- gle i~ Europe. in this respect, ~e must emphasize much that it is very important to internationalize the th~ee aon~nuciear ~rincipies ("Japan does aot manufact~re, posses$, or bring in nuclear weapans'7. New Definitions in the JCP-CPSU Joint Communiqne A ree~ect to equalitq between parties, independence and the right to decide on its own lines is advocated in the JCP-CPSU joint cc~nunique v~ry clearly, and unpsecedently in detail and concretely. Wfiat this means is that each party has it own righ; to decide on its way independently--the way covering all stages of development from socialist revolution to construction of so- cialism and cormmunism. , Certainly a respect to independence had been publicly admitted in general terms. But the ~oint communique this time provided a detailed, new defini- tion, and defined in a strong tone that no one is in pasition of inter- fering in the affairs of other garties. 5 - _ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 In accordance with the spirit expressed in the JCP-CPSU joint cn~unique, I ~ think, mutual understanding between the CPSU and other communist parties in - socialist cauntries on one hand and co~unist parties in advanced capitalist countries on the other will be promoted furthe~ '_n the 1980's. On the Collapee of China's Foothold of Intervention in the JCP The phenomenon that was worth drawing attention rose in China as an after ad~uetment of the "Great Cultural Revolution." China has recently criti- cized itaelf, saying it took an erroneous policy for the struggle (against ' revisionism) by departing from the principle of democratic centralism, but it gives no appropriate explanation on what revisionism is. Since the dieruptc~re of the talks between me and Mao Zedong in 1966, China begar. condemning the JCP for its "revisionism." It has carried on activities for overthrowing the leadership of the JCP by utilizing antiparty elements. Therefore, attacks on other countriea' parties by labelling "revisioni:sm" became groundless. In addition, every time when Chfn~attacked other partiea by defining them as revieionism, it took up iirst the attitude toward the U.S. But China it- self now completely sides Grith U.S. imperialism, and is reduced to aupport the increase of military strength of imperialist blocks, including the Japan-U.S. military alliance. Viewing from this, the intervention in - other parties' affairs at the time of the China's "Great Cultural Revolu- t3on," the in~ervention aimed at imposing China's policy upon the JCP in particular constitutes the trampling on the "publicly~approved criterion," - and interventions becsme groundless theore~ically to them. Speaking in concluaion, it is not vecy easy for China to return to reason- able policy line right now as a whole. Becauee without re-inquiry into the basic policy line of supporting imper- ialistic block and the Japan-U.S. military alliance, there will be no works to make a genuine correction of ita errors. In this sense, I do not thinlc - ~ that worke to correct goes smoothly. [sentence as received]...I hope that China will return to the right direction az an early date, breaking out of ~ontradictiona in a series of domestic and inte~rnational policies. JCP-CPSU Talka and Interests of the Japanese Feople - t~e had the (JCP-CPSU) talks in a frank and friendly atmosphere. This was - so in the proper meaning o� the words. Very frank, and at the same time ~oth aides liatened to the other very carefully, without uaing any word of denunciation. :[n diacussion, we said that Japan and the Soviet Union have not yet deter- inined their border which should have been demarcaCed by the two past belli- gerents after the war, and that the demarcation of the border should be 6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY an important part of a peace treaty, and hence a peace treaty must cover the problem of border and territory. Following these discussione, both sides confirmed wha~ are their agreed points on a peace treaty: theq also con- firmed that they would continue to exchange opinione, and negotiate, on the content of the treaty. I believe that a great progresa has been made because the two parties have produced a forum to have friendlq, open and frank _ discussions about basic problems of a peace treaty. - CSO: 4120 ~ 7 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - POLITICAL AND SOCIOLO~ICAI~ JCP'S MIYAMOTO SPEAKS ON INTERPIAL SITUATION OW031101 Tokyo JPS in English 0854 3 Jan 80 OW . [Text] Tokyo, 3 Jan JPS--[Continued fram yesterday] Following is an excerpt .from a speech by Ken~i Miyamoto, presidium chairman of the Japanese Com- muniat Party, in an interview with director of the AKAAATA editorial board, r_arried in the new year issue of the gaper. (Today's JPS dispatch ~sinly covers points on internal situations. World and international situations were mostly covered by yesterday's dispatch~.~ _ On the Pexspectives of Establishing a Democratic Coalition Goverment in the 1980's r4iyamoto said, that there are still posaibility of forming a progressive united front and establishing a democratic c~~alition government, as the Liber.$1 Democratic Party gover~ent is to inevitably deepen contradictions with the interests of the people. Not onl~y there fs such possiblity, but also we can further strengthen the possibility with a big advance of the Japanese Communist Party. On the LDP and Reactionary Forces' Strategy in the 1980's Miyamoto said, they also have their own plans for the 1980's. It is a policy line, aimed at resolvin~ the contradi~tions brought about by their ~conomic policy serving the interests of big business, by sacrificing the - peogle. The government draf t budget for 1980 has revealed that they plan to impose much more burden on the shoulder of the people by ~aising public utility chargea and by cutting public welfare, than the burden that could be imposed by the introduction of the general excise tax. They xre pursuing such an anti-people policy. The second characteristic is that they are speaking about self-restriction ~ in order to caver up their political stand in service for the final cir- c:le, the collusion between the financial circles and the political party, and corruption which is inevitable to such reactionary politics. But, in fact, they are still accumulating collusions and corruptions. 8 FOR OFF'ICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200044454-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY , And the next iaeue is the Japan-U.S. milltary aZliance. As i$ ahawn by the. nl~nned part~cipation b3~ the Japane$e self defen$e �oxces in the RIMPAC (Rim of the Paci,fic .Toint Military Scerc#se), this is being more and more _ internationalized. At the same time, there ia anothex approach shown by giving Chi~na a ewa of 50 billion yen in sid, in return for China's aupport to the Japan-U.S. military alliance. - And, they are planning to resort to a aingle member constitusncy system, - which means Japdnes.e style fascism, with the sim to fundamentally auppreas an advance of the JCP and the pragreasive forcea. To achievs th~s goal, they _ are now elaborating a draft of a single conatituency syste.m whiGb can per~ suade the right-leaning opposition parties. Finally, rhey are maneuvering to entice and get hald af the right-le,t?ning opgaaition parties to carry out their reactionary poZi~y. In this is~sue, the zight-leani.ng opuosition parties have already supported the J~pan-U.S. milita~ry al.liance and the Japanese self defense force$, and thaX also gave votes for the legislation of the impexial era name and a series of other raactionary bills. On the economic pc~licy, too, thsy are obviausly follow- ing ~h~ policy of supplementing the conservative farcea. Thie ~as clearly rev~~.aled by the Japanese Communis.: Party, when the Komei and Democratic Sociali~t parties were going to apgrove the general exclse taae a~stem, while they were good at saying the oppositiaito the iAtroduction of thax syskem. On ~he Recent Change of the J~pan Sccialist Farty = Miyamoto said that th~ most serious result of the Japan Socialist chairman Ichio A~ukata's visit to the United State$ was the turn of the JSP to tlie stand that the Sapan-U.S, security treaty shauld bQ abroga~ed an~g if the two aides agree ta da so. This is not a paxtial, chaage in ita po],icy but a 18~0-degree change, a compl~te surrender to the palicg line ctf the Romei Farty. The Japan-U.S. military alliance is one root caus~ of the intensified sit- uation in Asia. Against the background of China's befor~h$nd announcemsnt of its xe-invasion of Vietnaat, there is ths .~apan-II.S. military alliance. The change af the Socialist Party toward approufng the lapanese self defense farcas and appraving the Japan-U.S. military allia~ce means a suicida~ action of this party~ The mainstay of the Liberal Democratic Farty a~rate$y in thQ 1980's for its reinforcement is this co~on golicy on ba~h internal and external = polieies, existing, among the LDP and the ri$ht-leaning opgoaitian parties, that is, the maintenanee Qf th~ system of monopol}r capitalism, and the maintenance of the ~apan-U.S. alliance and the apgroval of the Japanese self defense forccs. In adclition, their unanim~cg rest~ with splitting the pragressive forces, in other words, exclusian of the Japanese Communist Party and oppasition to a progreasive uaited front. Qa thes~ issues, there 9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY has already been a grand accord between the LDP and the DSP and Komei Party. Tt?e concept of the Ohira faction of the Liberal Democratic Party for ~oin- - " ing the New Liberal Club in their coalition to mske a breakthrough from the crisis, and the concept harbored by the Komei and Bemocratic Socialist P1rty for a coalition government, including the forces of the Liberal Demo- cr.atic Party, are basically on the same line. Now, the Socialist Party is guing to be committed to this line. The logical conclusion of this is that the ~ocialist Party, in the end, wi.ll be thrown into the concept of the Romei and Democratic Socialiat par- ties for the political power, which leads to a coalition government with the - Liberal Democratic Party. It is obvious that will openly trample on the - cause of progress. But, the Socialist Party which has officially made a pledge as a political - party to the Communist Party that it will make every effort to form a progressive united front, bears responsibility to the people. This respons- ibi.lity cannot be dispersed even if the Socialist Party arbitrarily tramples - on the responsibility. , On the United Actions and Unity of Workers Movem~nt - In. this situation, the Japanese Communist Party should struggle for construc- _ ting a party of 500 thousand mEmbers with a 4 million AKAHATA readers, and at the same time carry high the banner of a progressive united front and strengthen united actions. In trade unions, class organization of the working class, there is a~rong ' inclination in Japan at present, that a trade union has become a subordinate organ of the Socialist Party or the Democratic Socialist Party, while pro- moting the "Socialist-Komei axis course" and imposing it on the workers, which will inevitably result in helping establishing a goverriment reinforce- ' ing the conservative forces. But, now, there is rising struggle for and a voice that such an arbitrarily way of doing things must be ended and that genuine trade union movement be promoted and genuine national center be sought for. This is also a very important task in the 1980's for the formation of a progressive unity front. CSO: 4120 10 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL ~ 'ASAHI' VIEWS COUNTRY'S DIPLOMATIC DIFFICULTIES IN 1980'S OW111131 Tokyo ASAHI EVENING NEWS in English 10 Jan 80 p 5 OW - [ASAHI SHUMBUN 5 January Editorial: "Japan"s Diplomacy"~ [Text] Japan's diplomacy is on the threshold of an era that may well be the most difficult since the end of World War II. ~apan's predicament as a result of the dispute between the U.S. and Iran was symbolic of the difficulties lying ahead in the 1980's. _ Unable to satiafy both sides, Japan is in a dilemma. Its friendship with ~ the U.S. and its need.to secure petroleum have become an antinomy. - Countries have asked Japan, "Are you hostile or friendly." Or have told it, "A friend of our enemy is our foe." This is akin Co being shown the "fumie" (a copper tablet with a crucifix zo be trodden on to prove that one is not a Christian). Japan is facing a tough situation under which it cannot spurn the close questioning as unreasonable or ~assume a 3efiant - attitude. This is a tragedy of Japan's omnidirectional diplomacy under which it cannot help but be friendly with both sides. Renounce Excuae-giving Diplomacy Japan is not.a country that hoists ideology at the forefront and flutters - natural resources or military might as a means of intimidation. Since it is not such a country, it cannot be helped if ite dtplomacy is less clear - and crisp than those of the other countries. Japan's diplamacy is apt - to become one that copes with the prevailing situation, to put it mildly, - and one that is slow in starting and applause-seeking, to put it less mildly. We say so because clashes with various countries and confusion are certain to follow if Japan aims only at making a good show of itself . in a poor manner. We wonder, however, if Japan can tide over various situations by repeating the excuse-giving diplomacy which it has been following. So long as Japan Wiii not change basically from ~eing a resources-poor country and a non- military state, we believe that the government and the people should keep at least the following points we11 in their mind: 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 1. The people should become aware of the fact th~t the international environment surrounding Japan has developed into one of unprecedented severity. To strengthen the national economy, they should be prepared _ for a review of the vested rights they won dur.ing the period of high economic growt~~. As long as the people fail to have a sense of crisis _ and take the present political and economic systems as well as their mode ~f living for granted, Japan's diplomacy cannot help but remain hseitazt forever. 2. Japan's peace diplomacy is giving the world the impression that Japan is not doing anything--that it is adhering steadfastly to the safety-first principle. The proposal made at the end of the international symposiinn on the role to be played by Japan in the world, sponsored by the ASAHI SHIMBUN in November last year, points out the need to bring about social _ and economic development on the basis of what to support instead of what 4 to oppose. We must consider at all times not only how to gain profits from inter- national society but also how to contribute to international society. In this context, Japan's reputation in the world suffered when it took a cold attitude toward the acceptance of Indochinese refugees. That was a bitter lesson. Diplomacy Only Is a Key to National Security 3. From the viewpoint that diplomacy is a key to national security, govern- - ment should be orienr.ed toward the outside more than ever before. Specifi~cally, efforts should be made by the ruling and opposition parties to reach a consensus of opinions of basic foreign policy and the exchange of information and the adjustment of views among the ministries and agencies should be stepped up under the dir~ection of the prime minister. Attention should be paid so that Japan will not arouse misunderstanding, opposition and contempt among other countries th at Japan is a country which has no - principles or that it is a country that does not move unless it is given a good thrashing as a result of troubles it has caused them. - 4. We want the prime minister to be more responsible than at present with respect to diplomatic problems. We also hope that the foreign minister _ will be ready at all times to go abroad at the opportune time to explain the special position Japan is placed in. The foreign minister should not be kept within Japan because of domestic affairs. We believe that diplomatic negotiations that should be expedited the most are talks for the improvement of relations with the Soviet Union. Relations _ between Japan and the Soviet Union have cooled down inverse proportion to rapprochement between Japan and China. We hope that the governments of _ , the two countries will do their utmost during the first half of this year in mending such ties. - ~ 12 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Moscow is dissatisfied that the sentiment of the Japanese people toward - the USSR sharply differs from that toward China. On the basis of the historical and geographical relations between Japan and China as well as the flex'~ble and compromising policies Peking has taken toward Japan _ these past few years, we believe that it is natural that there is a difference between the~ sentiment of the Japanese ~oward China and that ~ toward the Soviet Union which is not m~king concession over the northern territory and fishing in the northern water~. - [OW111133] Further, an overwhelming ma,jority of the Japanese people are strongly opposed to the Soviet Union's way of pushing by force, as seen in its military intervention in Afghanistdn. In a public opinion survey conducted recently by the ASAHI SHIMBUN, only three percent of the respondents answered that they believed it was proper for Japan to be most friendly with the Soviet Union, against the 45 percent who mentioned the U.S. and the 34 percent who cited China. This is a manifestation cf how the Japanese people feel toward the Soviet Union. Pave the Way for Mature International Relations - We feel tne need to widen the channel for dialogue with the Soviet Union, more so because of ideological differences. We are hoping for the early resumption of regular consultations between the Japanese and Soviet foreign ministers, which have been postponed, and for the realization at an early date of the first vlsit to Japan to top Soviet leaders. Japan has no intention whatsoever of creating with other countries a network to surround ~ the USSR. We want the Kremlin to seriously reflect ~n why the Soviet Uttion is disliked by the Japanese, instead of showing concern over its being contained. Sino-Japanese relations are showing far more desirable developments than ~ Russo-Japanese ties as indicated by Chinese Prime Minister Hua Guofeng's _ scheduled visit to Japan in May. The task of the two nations is to advance toward mature relations so that both can argue without reserve in a friendly atmosphere. - A peaceful and stable Korean Pen:insula has always been one of Japan's deepest concerns. The reunification of North and South Korea rests on nothing but the judgment and efforts of Chose concerned. Hawever, we are of the view that Japan should contribute more positively than ever before toward the creation of an environment leading to the easing of tension on the Korean Peninsula. Seemingly stable but precarious are the relatic?ns between Japan and the U.S. Each time a summit is held, the leaders of the two countries pledge to remain staunch friends. H~owever, i11-feeling toward Japan, like that on the eve of the Japanese at'~.~ck on Pear1 ~iarbor, heightened, mainly in - the U.S. Congress, a number of times during the past few years.. This ill-feeling stemmed from the tendency on the part of trade between the ~ two countries to be in Japan's favor, irritation as a result of bungling - in American domestic policies, a drop in Washington's say in the world and insufficient understanding of Japan. 13 FOR OFFTCTAT. *T~F nNr.v APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - Above all else, Japan must make the U.S. understand well the real situation that under the prosperity i~ is showing on the surface, Japan is suffering seriously from a shortage of natural resouz�ces. At the same time, we believe that there is need on the part of Japan to pay attention to cooperating with the U.S. wherever and whenever possible and, by maintaining - ltaison with West European countriee, to advising and at times restraining Washington to prevent the U.S. from becoming isolated or from making a dash all by itself. Let's Recome More Versed With North-South Problems We believe that the so-called North-South problems, such as those concerning natural resources, energy and nationalism, will play the leading role in the world's stage in the '80s, although ideological differences between the r~ast and West will remain as basic major questions. Three-fourths of the member countries of the United Nations belong to the south. All the advanced nations have come to think that stability and prosperity cannot be had by ignoring the north-south problems. Sadako Ogata, a former Japanese minister to the U.N., said that viewing . the world through the U.N., she was impressed of the wide gulf between , the poor and rich. She added that it was necessary for the Japanese to develop the view that advancing into international society was to step into ~ poor countries. We must expect developing nations to resort to acts that are unthinkable in the light rf accepted rules of international politics and incidents shaking the existing order, centered on the advanced countries, to occur frequently in the future. The late Shojiro Kawashima, who was a vice- president of the Liberal-Democratic Party, said that the political world ~ is dark one step ahead. In international society, the situation is such that it is truly diff icult to make a forecast of what will happen tomorrow. It is urgent for Japan, which looks to the south for almost all its petroleum requirements, to concentrate its diplomacy on the north-south ~ probl~ms. I- COPYRIGHT: Asahi Evening News 1980 ~ CSO: 4120 ~ ~ 14 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ POLITICAL AND SOCIOI.OGICAL - POLITICS IN TfiE DECADE OF EIGHTI~S ANALYZED Politics 1980 Tokyo MAIlJICHI DAILY NEWS in English 3 Jan 80 p 2 - _ [EditorialJ ' As we stand on the threshold of the 1980s, we.place high nopes once again on the future course of Japanese politics and behavior of politicians. despite all the bitter exper�ences we have sufiered in the past. It is our sin~cere ~vish that politicians will stay clean. - free from corivption and keep the ever-expanding - bureaucratic system under control. ln retrospect the decade ot the 1970s can be summed up as one of discouragement and frustration. Politics. especially in the latter part of the 70s, had little resilience to cope with immediate pTOblems. The - lack of long- and medi~im-range prospects and foresightedness on the part of political parties, to say nothing of the successive governments, was. fatal. IE is small wonder the people have become distrustful ef the nation's politics. ~ To make matters worse, the political world t~as remained at a loss throughout the latter part of the - 1970s in the face oi series of shocking political scandals invoiving the rank and file of the tiiberal- Democratic Party. The LDP has certainly revealed structural evils accumulated~ in the wax of governtng the nation over the years, but the political worid has failed to remedy the "Japanese disease," or the "LDP disease" for that matter. And here we are now greeting the beginning of the otherwt~ hopeiW and promising decade of'80s. The Liberal-Democratic Party fougAt bard in two _ ge~eral elections and t~vo Wouse of Councflnrs tlec- tions during the past tive years~ but tailed to cecover 15 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY lost ground. The parliamentary strength ot the LDP _ and opposition p~:rties still remains virtually equal~ with little prospect of a tilt in t;~e scale in the im- mediat$ future. ~ . The Economis~ of r ondon right!y commented on. the last general c,lection; calling it an election to decide who should govern the LDP rather than to decide who would govern the country. Although the LDP suftered a miserable setback in the ei~ction, Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira succeeded in retaining his post as head of the LDP, hence the post as hsad of the country. ~ For the past 2a years, the LDP has enjoyed many advantages as a government party. Even in the final ~ phase of the intraparty squabble in the aftermath o[ ' the general election, there was tacit understanding among the LDP members not to split the party, in- dicating how prof~table It is to be the gov~rnment +t party. _ 'Phe structure of "corruption" is presented in the form of "collaboration among the political, . bureaucratic and financial circles," plus some voters bumming from politicians. The Liberal-Democratic Party, infested ~vith intricate power machines, has been noted for its lack of ability to formulate policies' . and its poor image as a mass party. For survival~ it has to import talented figures from the bureaucracy ' wl~ich, accordingly, has increased its voice within the party. The LDP has emerged in its present form through the assistance of the powerful bureaucratic ~ system and cDose relations with various prpssure groups. - Shady relations have resulted in political corruption and scandals. Successive LbP prime ministers have worked hard, not in the best interests - of the nation, but for petty partisan interests to hold ' the reins of government as long as possible ar~d tackle ' policy p~oblems heavily dependent o~ the bureaucracy. Here is an interesting result from an inion survey �~hich asked respondents to what degr~r they trust the listed items. About ~4 percent replied that they trust "weather forecasts," 81 percent trust - "newspapers," 77 percent "doctors" and 21 percent "fortune telling." But, only 3 perccat trust "politicians." In other words, politici~n~ ranked lowest on a list of "trustworthlness." 16 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . ~ I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY So the immediate task of politics and politicians~ al~ke is to restore the trust of the people, even to a small degree, in the years ahead. All political parties, regardless of their ideologies and interests, must join tiands in dealing with many problems designed to restore the authority o[ politics, such as revision of the existing election law and the introduction of a bill . aimed at publicizir~g the personal assets of - _ politicians. ~ � . The surest way to restore lost ground is for all politicians to stay clean. , . _ COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Daily News 1980 - Future of One-Party Rule Tokyo 'FHE DAIL1' YOMIURI in Engltsh 4 Jan 80 p 2 [Editorial] - [ Text ] The one-party domi.iance of the nation's polltics by ~ the Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) is coming ta an end, but will this lead to an eventuaI aplitting of - the party? This question will probably be the focas of attention in the 1980s as~ the LDP failed to win~ a majority in the past two general elections. Also, the - internal feuding which continued for more than a month has caused an irreparable crack in the party wzity. . � The LDP has been maintaining ~its position aa the goverament party by changing its. leader whenever it was faced with a crisis but there came a break in thia practice when the party suffered a setbsck in the last October's general election and a bitter con- frontation between the mainstream factions and anti- mainstream factions followed. " Prime Minister Ohira is deter~ined to ensure sti LDP victory in the coming House of Councilors elec- tion next summer and then seek reelection sa LDP president in the party election acheduled for Decem- ~ ber as seen from the way the Ohira. cabinet has com- piled the Sscal 1980 budget. But the Ohira strategy is diametrically opposed to - the viewe of Takeo Fukuda and Takeo Miki, Ohire'a main challengers, and Yasuhirn Na.kasone and Toshio " Somoto, both aspirants for the top party poat. Tha aata.gonism within the LDP may erupt if a non- aonfidence motion is submitted in the Diet _ In addition to these factors, moves ~nmong the cen- trist opgosition parties aIso deserve attentian. 1~l- though Komeito and the Democratic-Socialiat 1''arty _ 17 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 ; FOR OFFICIAL LTSE ONLY , (DSP) have denied that they are planning to form a coalition government with the LDP, they, however, expect the ruling pai~ty to eventually split. 1V~any Uncertaintiea Involved 6 ' There are mE.ny uncertainties about whether the LDP, which has been in power for 24 years, will real- ' ly dis:ntegrate. The political situation at ~cresent is ; such L.hat a coalition between any opposition parties other tiaan the Communist Party (JCP) will co~e as no auri~rise to us. � If sn oppoaition coalition government is formed, it will,not be a stable government. In the electiona held after the war, the,conservative party usually garnered ?0 percent of the votes cast and the reformists 30 percent until ~he emergence of centrist parties. The ratio then changed to 50 percent for the LDP, 20 percenf for the centrists and 30 percent for the re- fornaists. The change from 7-3 to 5-2-3 reveals the voters' su- perior sense of balance which entrusted the LDP with ' the power to rule but assigned the task of checking the LDP's arbitrariness to the reformists with the ~ centrista as a cushion. It is evident from this ratio that even if the LDP split up and the splinter joins hands with the cen- trists, they will not be able to form a inajority power. Weakening Power Of LDP . ~ Even if the LDP wins in the upper house election, the party will not be able to rule the nation as u ata- ble power, given the present antagonism between the - mainstream f:~ctions and antimainstream factions. The ' political situation will be thrown into confusion if the LDP did eplit up. � If in this aae of economic crisis and turmoil, politi- ~ cians continued to curry favor with their supporters or yield to pi�essure groups and ignore the intereat of the peopje, the future of Japan will be in jeopardy. The age of a coalition government, however, should ~ be welcomed if political leadera give top priority to the interes~ of people. . ! - The votera should cast aside their coa~ition allergy j as more than 70 percent of West European coun- tries have coalition governments. - In addition, to revamp the nation's politica~ the voters ahould continue to mak~ assiduous efforts to atamp out the "money-power" election practicea. With- out such efforts the nation's politics won't improve whether or not the voters favor the advent of r~ coali- tion government in the 1980s. ; COPYRIGHT: The Daily Yomiuri 1980 18 CSO: 4120 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL 'JAPAN TIMLS' PROJECTS JAPANESE FOLITICS IN 1980 OW031159 Tokyo THE JAPAN TIMES in English 1 Jan 80 p 8 OW [Article by Minoru Shimizu: "Japanese Politics in 1980--Confusion and Uncertainty Expected To Increase"J [Text] The "confusion" and "~.mcertainty" which was created by the almost equal strength between the ruling .~nd opposition parties after the general election last October will most likely be inc~eased in Japan's politics in 1980. The first year of the 1980's. Many political observers predict that sometime during the 1980's. Most likel.y :Ln the firet half, the Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) may fail to secure a ma~ority in the House of Representatives and consequently a coali- tion goverm~ent between the LDP and middle-of-the-road parties may emerge. Such a prediction has encouraged the opposition ~arties, and their offeneive against the Ohira cabinet and the LDP is expected to become further intenAi- f ied thi.s year . The already unstable Ohira cabinet will be rocked whenever occasion ariaes, and its instability wi11 be revealed. The biggest political event this year will be the election of the Hbuse of Councillors scheduled for June or July. The outcome of thia election is expected to have a decisive effect on the future of the Ohira cabinet. ~ The upper house election will present tHe vital question of whether Japan's politics will continue seeing the continuation of a single-handed rule by conservative forces or put an end to the conservative rule and opea the way for the emergence of a policy union or a coalition goverrnnent between the LDP on the one hand and centrists and even socialists on the other. At present, the LDP has 257 seats in the 511-seat lower house, which is only one seat more than a ma~ority in the lower house. Consequently, 19 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY majorities are held by oppoaition paxty members on 10 of the 16 standing committees of the ~ower ~iouse, including the budget committee. The ruling LDP will most likely experience great difficulties in the deli- berations of bi11s at the ordinary sess3on of the Diet schedule3 to be re- opened in late January. If the strength of the ruling and opposition parties is reveresed as a re- t~ult of the upper house election this summer. the ruling party's operations in parliamentary affairs would come to a complet~ standstill. The LDP now holds 124 seats in the 252-seat upper house, 3ust maintaining a ma~ority because of the existence of five vacancies. Should the LDP ~ fail to maintain a ma~ority as a r~esult of the upper house election this swmm~er, Prime Minister Ohira, who 3s president of the ruling party, will be asked to take the responsibility for the setback and will certainly be forced to step down. Whoever within the ruling party succeeds Mr Ohira, the aforementioned difficulties in the Diet will rem~n.:It wi11 therefore become absolutely necessary for the LDP to seek the cooperation of centrists in the form of ~ poli~ical c~alition or in other �orms of alliance. This means a virtual end to the single-handed rule by the 7~DP. In this sense, this summer's upper house�electiQn will receive greater attention than ever. The upper house election is held every three years to reelect half of the 252 members. The term of office is six years. This time, 58 Liberal- Democrats will be uu fc?r reelection. Sixty-six others will remain as in- - cumbents. If the LDP is to win a ma~ority in the upper house, at least 61 candidates will liave to be returned. In the light of its election results in the past, this target will not be so difficult for the LDP to achieve. In every upper house election in the past, the LDP was able to elect more tham 60 candidates. Prime Minister Ohira and many of the party leaders expect that similar re- sults can be achieved in this summer's election if vigorous election cam- paigns are started in its early stages. In their interviews held at the end of last year, the Liberal-Democratic hopefuls for president in the 1980's expressed the view that there would be no reverse of strength between the ruling and opposition parties as a result of the upper house election this s~mer. These hopefuls included Mr Yasuhiro Nakasone, former secretary general of the LDP, former foreign minister Riichi Miyazawa, Shintaro Abe, chairman of the LDP political affairs research council, Finance Minister Noboru Take- shita and Ganri Yamashita, former director general of the Defense Agency. Even former Socialist Party Secretary General Masahi Ishibashi made a similar prediction. 20 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY t.. To be sure, there are xelatively many LDP upper house members who will not run for reelection this summer. As a result, there is the view that numer- ically there will probably be no rcverse of strength between the ruling and opposition parties in the upper house. Severe Setback In should be remembered, however, that the LDP suffered a severer setback than originally expected in the general election last October. As a result, the once reviving popular support for the LDP has completely vanished. Moreover, the rift has deepened as a result of the antagonism between the - _ mainstread and antimainstream factions wittiin the LDP. The popular supporfi for the Ohira cabinet has dipped below 30 percent. On the other hand, never has the mood of cooperation in the election been - so high as at presznt among the oppqsition parties. All these facts oppose the view that the LDP will fare well in the upper house elec*_ion this summer. Some observers predict that there may be a re- verae of strength between the ruling and opposition parties as a result of the upper house election. _ It is most unlikely that, in the light of the drawn-out intraparty struggle _ last fall and tlie lack of leadership Prime Minister Ohira revealed after the struggle, the Ohira cabinet will ~e able to retrieve itself from the present instability. The Ohira cabinet will most likely treat on the verge of reaigning at any time. To use the term of Sumo, this cabinet is in "Shinitai," a falling poeition with no chances of recovery. In Japan's political history, in fact, there has never been a cabinet that appears so unstable as the Ohira cabinet. Chief Cabinet Secretary Masayoshi Ito, a close aide to the prime minister, - says, "The fut~xre of this cabinet depends on whether it can do anything that will be appreciated by the people in the next six mon~:hs. All we can do for the immediate present is try to solve step by ~tep such problems as the eliminatior~ of corruption within government agencies and administra- _ tive and fiscal reforrns. We hope to restore public confidence by doing what we have pledged to do. We have to see what will com~ out of the election - in six months time...." ~ However, another influential aide to the prime minister, Miyazawa, has expressed the view that as things now stand, the Ohira cabinet will aat be able to achieve anything that will help it regain strong popular suppflrt. There are various theories regarding how long the Ohira cabinet will be _ able to ].ive apart from the length of the Ohira cabinet's life. It can hardly be said that, as Miyazawa points out, much can be expected of the Ohira cabinet as far as its political ability is concerned. _ 21 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY As Ohira's term of office as party president lasts until the end of Novem- ber, it ia theoretically possible for him to remain in office as prime minister till that time. Some leaders of the anti-mainatream faction of the LDP predict~~ that the Ohira cabinet will be short-lived and may not be - able to stay on until the upper house electian this suIImmer. In the light of the ir~stability of this cabinet, this prediction seems con- vincing, but it is true that, for the immediate present, there are hardly - any chances for toppling this cabinet. It is most likely, therefore, that, barring the unexpected in parliamentary operations or in other affairs, the - upper house election will be held at the hands of the Ohira cabinet. Opti~'stic View � _ Prime Minister Ohira and his circles seem to take the viaathat if the LDP can successfully tide over the upper house election, it will help Ohira win reelectian for another two-year term as party president in the presidential election to be held late this year. As a result, the Ohira cabinet will be able to survive for a total of four years. But this view seems to be too optimistic. It is more likely that Ohira will have to conltinue the "tight- - rope-walking" operations in handling political affairs without kaowing when = he may be requested to step down. In these circumstances, Ohira's advantage, if anything, is th~t he was able to clear the way for a coalition government af�ter he had obtained sup- - port from the New Liberal Club during the intraparty struggle last fall. - With this approach, Prime Minister Ohira let it be publicly known that, whenever necessary, he was prepared to form a coglition government with certain opposition parties. Even if the anti-Ohira forces within the party threaten Ohira with such radical means as "bolting the party," he would be able to counter the threat with plans to introduce opposition forces to his cabinet, thereby nullifying the threat hurled at him by the antimainstream faction. In the light of the setback the LDP receiv~d in the general election last fall and the subsequent intraparty struggle, the opposition parties take the view that the singlehanded rule by the LDP is collapsing and that an - "age of coalition" has emerged as a concrete political schedule for this year. Moves for mapping coalition plans are expected to become activated among the opposition parties this year. To formulate concrete coalition - plans is no easy task, however. It would have been reasonable if the LDP had yielded power to ~the opposition parties after the drawn-out intraparty etrife to let them for a"progressive" government. However, the Japan Socialist Party (JDP), the No 1 opposition group, was devoid of political power strong enough to attract the communists on the 22 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ left and Komeito, the Democratic Sacialist Party (DSP), the New Liberal Club and the Social Democratic Federation (Shaminren) on the right, so as to suc- - ceed the Liberal-Democrats. . After the beginning of December, the JSP approached Komeito on the matter - of political cooperation and, with this move as a start, the JSP has begun to envision a coalition on the JSP-Komeito-KSP line, i.e., a right-inclined coalft+fun of the opposition parties, excluding the communists. - FIowever, Komeito and the DSP seem to be much more inclined toward a con- servative centriat coalition with certain forces of the LDP. - Although Komeito is now taking tY~e posture of accepting the JSP's invita- tion, this party appears to be more inclined to~rdrd a coalition with con- servative forces and the DSP. Therefore, the possibility is slim that the JSP-Komeito-DSP coalition plan may be realized. Komeito and the DSP will most likely use their energy in the direction of including a split of the LDP. - Professor Rei Shiratori of Dokkyo University predicts that during the period between this year and the middle or the 1980's, Japan's political structure - will be divided into three ma~or groups: conservative, centrist and pro- gressive forces. - - But none of Lhe three groups will be able to hold a ma3ority in the Diet. As a result, the present single-party rule by the LDP will be replaced by coalit~,on governments working under the principle of consensus politics. When such a political structure takes root in Japan, there is no guarantee that the LDP and the JSP will be able to maintain their present forms. As shown by the rasults of the last general election, the LDP and the JSP will have to see their popularity continue to fall for some time. The drawn-out struggle within the I,DP after the last general election and - the intensified conflict between the right and left wingers of the JSP, as well as its uncertain political stance--all these indicate that it will be no longer possible for the two parties to maintain their presenC forms. _ The question is when and in what form the two parties will split. This ques- tion will be constantly asked throughout the 1980's. ~ Iu the so-called "1955 structure," the LDP and tHe~JSP ruled Japan's politics. (It was in 1955 that the Liberal Party and the Democratic Party were merged to i~rm the present I~DP and the right-wring and the left-wing socialists were united to form the present JSP). It may be said that the two major parties had a three-legged race, opposing on the surface but shaking hands backstage. This structure ha.s eventually . 23 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY reeulted in the longterm, aingle-party rule by the LDP, while providing a _ hotbed for many political scandals like the Lockheed bribery case and the - alleged moaey-power and corruptive nature of the LDP. Unlike the time when the LDP held an abaolute ma3ority in the Diet, Japan's politics is bound to see some uncertainty in the 1980's. However, when the values become diversified and popular interests in politics vary, the trends toward multi-party politics and coalition government plans seem to be a natural course of events. COPYRIGHT: The Japan Times 1979 . CSO: 4120 24 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY , P01.1'I'fCA1, ANI) Sp(:lOT.QCICAL ~r FOREIGN MINISTER OKITA INTERVIEWED ON 1980 ISSUES OW100237 Tokyo TOKYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 3 Jan 80 Morning Edition p 2 JW ~ [Foreign Minister Okita's new year interview with TOKYO SHIMBUN editorial staff inember Nobutoshi Nagano and reporter Noriyuki S~:~ama--date and place of interview not given] - [Text] The Hostage Incident Is Inadmissible [Question] In this turbulent.world Japan's 3iplomacy is expected to face many difficulties in the 198Q's. What attitude should it maintain to cope with them? Okita: Protecting the people's livelihood and safety is the basic mission - of diplomatic activity. Externally we will seak to settle disputes peace- fully and help developing nations build their countries. In other words, Japan's foreign policy is dedicated to peace and construction. For Japan, - diplomacy bears a particularly important responsibility, because we have few natural resources and are virtually unarmed. [Question] But there is always a gap between ideals and realities. For example, Japan is finding its position in the current U.S.-Iran crisis very awkward. Okita: The (Iranian) seizure of an embassy and taking of hostages, for whatever reason, cannot. be condoned from the standpoints of international law of humanitarians. The basic foundations of international relations would disintegrate if such acts were allowed. We feel that Japanese- - U.S. relations should not be harmed. Until the hostage issue is resolved, we will continue to cooperate with international public opinion. On the other hand, in our energy diplomacy, friendship with Middle East nations, including Iran, is indispensable to Japan. Once the hostage issue is resolved, we will endeavor to maintain our friendly ties with Iran. [QuestionJ Why are Japanese-U.S. relations treated as the axis of the nation's foreign policy? 25 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Okita: Japan depends on the United States for 70 percent of its food and more than 25 percent of its industrial exports go to the United States. This fact alone shows how close relations are in the trade areas. Add this to relations in the national security and politiaal areas, and you can see how broad and far-reaching are Japan-U.S. ties. Historically, _ as well, a det~rioration in Japan-U.S. relations has always led to a crisis - for Japan. , ~ Expectations of the Wisemen's Group [Question] Do you mean that Japan must be submissive to the United States? - Okita: No, I do not. In the 1980's Japan will increasingly face the need - to think and act on its own. From a mere follower, Japan will become an equal partner of the United States. But our relations will basicall~j~ remain cooperative. ' As a result of the developments in Europe, Japan and some developing nations ; and their globally expanded economies, it has become difficult for the United States to take the lead in everything in the international community. U.S. economic power accounted f~r 33 percent of the world economy 25 years - _ ago, but 3 years ago it had fallen to 23 percent. _ [Question] It is feared the yen's downward trend may again touch off economic friction between Japan and the United States. What is your opinion? ~ Okita: This year Japan's large car exports might become an issue. In view of the upcoming presidential election, which is Iikely to raise many such issues, I hope that the Japan-U.S. wiseman's group wi11 do something to ; keep those issues from developing into heated disputes. In this regard, I also hope that I will be able to visit the United States as soon as , possib le. ~ [Question] Japan's diplomacy in the 1980's will also attacr~ importance to I obtaining energy resources, will it not? Okita: Oil accounts for 75 percent of Japan's total source of energy, and Japan seets 99.8 percent of its oil requirements through imports. What is more, three-fourths of Japan's oi1 imports are from the Middle East. _ _ The problem is that this very area is now the most unstable throughout the ' - world. Japan should step up its diplomacy in the Middle East, contribute as best as it can to the stability of the area and strive to secure oil imports through effective measures to cope with various situations. I am ' - eager to realize my plan to visit the Middle East, although it will bP affected by my future domestic schedule. At the same time, Japan's diplomatic and domestic administrations will need to cooperate with each other to reduce Japan's dependence on oil to less ; ; 26 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ i; than SO percent in the 1980's. To this end, Japan will strive to seek vara~ed energy resources, such as coal, natural gas and uranium, and try to import tliem from various sources. Prime Minister Ohira's visit to Australia is aimed at securing this stable supply of resources. [OW100241J [Question] I would like to ask about the Venice su*nmit (the summit meeting of advanced nations). At the meeting, Japan is expected to be plac~d in a more difficult position on the energy issue, is it not? Okita: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) this year estimates the growth rate of its members at 0.3 percent. If this zero point growth becomes a reality, the world will see alleviated oil requirements. Taking a broad view, this will lead to a well-balanced - supply and demand for world oil. However, an imbalance will exist among _ individual nations because oil dealings will be conducted separately between each oil-consuming and oil-producing nation unlike the past practice in which oil supplied through international oil ma~ors. It is unlikely that in the future oil prices will go down or people will again enjoy large oil supplies. At the summit, the participants will discuss ways to save oil and shift to the wide use tif other energy resources. Japan Will Watch the Situation in the ROK [Question] What is the prospect for improved relations with the Soviet Union in the 1980's? Okita: There are various lines of communication between Japan and the Soviet Union. Our relations are progressing favorably, except for the ~ dispute o~~er the northern territories. Concerning government-to~-government relations, procedurally it is Foreign Minister Gromyko's turn to visit ' Japan an:i, therefore, I have no plans for the time being to visit the Soviet Union. As to Japan's cooperation in modernizing China, Japan has explained to the Soviet Union that it will not cooperate in the field of military affairs. It now appears that the Soviet Union understands Japan's position. [Question] Is there any way for Japan to contribute to the peaceful solution " of the situation in Indochina, which is considered Asia's powder keg? Okita: For the time being Japan has no plans for action. Depending on developments, such influential countries as Japan, China, the Soviet Union, the United States and France might feel the need for concerted efforts to prepare for the peaceful solution of the area's issue. [Question] How are you going to tackle the Japan-ROK issue? Okita: Japan will watch the situation in the ROK for some time and encourage a move toward democratization. I hope that the regular Japan-ROK ministerial meeting will be held as soon as possible at a mutually convenient time. COPYRIGHT: Chunichi Shimbun Tokyo Honsha 1980 CSO: 4105 2~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POI.I T( CA1, AN~ S~CI O1.OGICAL OHIRA'S ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM DEPLORED , Tokyo SHUKAN SHINCHO in Japanese 15 Nov 79 p 26 [Sohyo: A True Motfve for Its A~proval of Reshuffling Public Servants Within Government Agenciesj [Text] "Wt~at are you talking about at this time?"--This must have been ti~c impression of the majority of the people. _ According to the pretentious articles by several newspapera, the General Council of Trade Unions of Japan (Sohyo) at the ~oint committee with the chairmen of unions, chief secretaries, and local council representatives , held on the first day of this month decided to take a flexible stand toward ' the administrative reform--especially focusing on the change of their attitude from negative to 'positive' toward reshuffling public workers within the government agencies. However, ~udging from the people's point of view, and when our voice urging drastic action--by reducing the number of public employees by half--on the overexpanded administrative system under this unprecedented financial crisis in history is becomiug louder, how can people be convinced that a mere re- - _ shuffle of public employees be called a progressive reform? Besides that, although Sohyo's decision claims the reshuffle or transfer of government officials within the agenecies is possible when the government ~ carries out administrative reform, its decision stipulates that reshuffling . personnel within its government agency should be practiced according to the rLles set by non-government organizations; individual preference should be c~nsidered, and also the reform must be carried out according to the consensus reached among the offices of the government and Sohyo, and to begin with, S~hyo demanded the right to collective bargaining on personnel change. In short, the government couldn't possibly carry out the administrative re- form unless Sohyo approves of personnel transfer or reshuffling. Tlierefore, the promoter of the reform, the Administrative Management Agency itself shows, perhaps knowing what lies ahead, no enthusiasm for the positive 28 FOR OFP'ICIAL USE ~NLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY decision of Sohyo, and says that "it presents merely a general principle, and if Sohyo decision-makers were to actually discuss more in specifics with the lower ranking union officials, there is no guarantee that everything will go smoothly. At tt~e Diet s~rs5ion on September 26th, in order to promote effective place- ment among the government officials, the government decided to set up a "Council for Personnel Transfer, Promotion and Liaison10 which is staffed by the chief secretaries and bureau directors of the ministries and agencies; however, the meeting has not yet been held even once. All of these seem to reflect the government's attitude which bears in mind the.strong resistance by the unions. . :a ' With the general election coming ahead, there was a feverish campaign for administrative reform. One of the issues concerned with reshuffling personnel - within the government offices en~ed up in the sorry state, "is? the mercy of Sohyo" and as for the other issue, which deals with a uniform reduction of the public employees in each office, we cannot expect to see any favorable results to come out. A well-informed source says that "sccording to the fifth plan to reduce public employees, 37,000 employees are supposed to be cut within 5 years from 1980, however this figure does not exactly represent the actual reduction to be carried out in the public offices. There is a trick that the yearly - budget proposal for additional new slots is reviewed under a separate cate- gory from the proposa? for personnel reduction. In fact, the ~overnment was supposed to have cu-_ a tc~tal of 128,400 employees during the first to fourth~ year plan--from the year 1968 to this year--,under separate categury they have been increasing by 120,500 employees, which neans in reality they have - decreased by only 7,900 employees." Moreover, the cut is carried out very slowly--the practice in government offices is to fill the vacancies created by retirement, marriage, change of job, etc with some control. It is far away from the image of the administra- tive reform wished by the people. Considering the dying fiscal situation, they should stop filling vacancies with new recruits for a while, and at least wouldn't it make a sense if the government fills the newly created positions by reshuffling personnel within the agencies and ministries? It is a common practice among the private enterprises that if its management fails, they would transfer their people to the subsidiary companies, or train some of them as salesmen. Government employees are pampered in the hot house of the government bureaucracy and they are totally out of it. I am thoroughly disgusted with the government practice in which the private sectors' "common ' sense" does not pass current. Even the prime minister Ohira, in the beginning showed a great enthusiasm and took pains to carr~ out administrative re~orm, - cannot be expected to carry through with required stron~ leadership at this _ time when, in his own ground, he is liable to lose a battle. 29 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Tlien the reason why Sohyo at this time suddenly took "the flexible stand" knowing that the reform will never work out anyway might have been ~ust a facade to deceive the people. We can say nothing, but the whole story is vcry deapicuMle to ti~e people. COPYRIGHT: Shinchosha 1979 9i31 C50: 4105 - _ 30 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL A~JD SOCIOLOGICAL KEIDANREN RdUTS LDP Tokyo THE DAILY YOMIURI in English 21 Dec 79 p 3 [Commentary by Raisuke Honda] - The government and the Libcral-Dem- mura tepcrtedly "threatened" that there [Text] ocrattc Party rLDP) have abli~doned plans would be r:o flnanclnl bac~ktr.~ irotn 61ie to increase corpornte tuxes in fiscal 1980, business K�orld for the LDP lu the House e~pitulatir. ; once more to the pressures of Councliors election next summer, un- of big busiress. less the n:;~ty dropped the plunned tax The qo�rcrnment proposal f~r a cor- boost. porate tax hil:e ca~ne after the major set- LDP sou:ces snid the party secretary- b~ck of the LDP ln the last general elec- general then "diluted" the tax ruise plans. tion that w~as duc primarily to the peo- ~fly~ng a one per~�~nt hike aould do. but pl~'s indig[~tlon over Prime Minlster Ohi- Hanumura would not accept uny tux boost ra'a statements during the election cam- at 111. palgn urgtn.~ a generui exclse tax. In the face of this pressure irom the The premier came under Rre and with- bustness worid, such mtiitant LllF Diet- - drew Lhe planned tax on consumers. This men as Ka~o Watanabe stronK~Y demand- greatly dis~ppointed the F'Inance Min- Ed that t}:e ~;overnment go ulicad wlth 1s6ry whicl~ had lioped for this tax to help ~he planr,ed tax boost "!n order to iio6 ovcrcome the diiriculties in government mar further the image of the LDP:' flnances. ~ But the voices of the few mllltants aere In consultation with Finance Ministry - of~icials. trie premier then decided to im- 9uirkly druw~ned out. pose a hike in corporate taxes by two to The LDP is now budly shorL o1 money. three percent, while again pledging to ~nce it spent so much for elcctioneering mnke drastic slashes in government speud- in the Oc~..c~bcr 7 general election. ing. The party fs said to need at least 'Y5 The Fins~nce Ministry had been hoping " blllion !n campal~n funds for the forth- ' th~t the pl~nned corporate tax hike would coming upper house election. Therefore. - raise the government revenue by an esti- the LDP had little choice but tq a~ithdraw - mated �~F430 btllion to Z860 billion for the thc planne~ tax, though reluctantly in next 8scal year. order not to unger Hanamura. who ts � The tax ir~crease plans, however, touch- "Kcidanren's flnance minister:' ' ed ~ oS stron;er-than-expected criticism Even Fsnunce 1Vlinistry o~iicials have irom the top echelons of the business refrained from inststing upon. the need for aorld. corpotate ta~: increases. Instead they now Toshiwo Doko, chairman of the F~edera- say the gu~ernment eBorts !n slashing tion of Ecc+nomic Organizations (Keidan- its expend:tures are making unexpectedly ren),lashed out at the planned tax hike, good progress. to the extent o! ellminat- saying the government couid not iustily a in~ the need for tax raise. tax raise on the plea of flnancial difS- Following the government decision not calties, "as long as it faila to cut back to ralse tlie corporate tax. in flscal 1980, on its ovm expenses." the flnance minister met with the Kei- Dako vehemently launched an antitax danren vice-president last Wedneaday to hiDce eam~a:gn sending early this week solieit Keicianren's support for tax boost ~~ice-Chair.:~ah of Keidanren Nlhachiro � in flscal iS81. lianamura to Prime Minister Ohira and , In the tsx blttle, Keidanren routed the other LDP executives to protest against govemment and the LDP. This is inter- anl' tux lncrease. eati'ng when we conslder the trinngular In his tnik with LDP Secretary-C3eneral basia of conservative power-the LDP. top Yoshio Sakurauchi last Monduy, Hana- bureaucrats and business leaders. COPYRIGHT: The Daily Yomiuri 31 1980 ~cn. i i ~n � APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL ~ 'JPS' CARRIES 'AKAHATA' EDITORIAL ON SUCCESS OF JCP-CPSU TALKS - OW271401 Tokyo JPS in English 1130 GMT 27 Dec 79 OW [Text] Tokyo Dec 27 JPS--AKAHATA on December 27 carries an editorial entitled "On the Success of.the Japan-Soviet Communist Party Talks Arousing Reverberations." The full text of the editorial follows: The talks between the Japanese Communist Party and the Co~unist Party of the Soviet Union, and the ~oint communique issued by both delegations are causing wide reverberations. This is reflected in voices of welcome of the people from all parts of'Japan and various circles communicated to this paper, and.in newspaper reports-and comments, while the talks were still continuing. There is a suitable reason why wide repercu~sions are now arising. - In the talks, wide-ranging and manysided views were exchanged, from the issue of the relationship betWeen the JCP and the CPSU to international - problems, including the recent situation in Asia, various issues of the international communist movemen~, and the problems relating to the relations _ between the people of Japan and the Soviet Union. We must speak about the - substance and meaning of them, but for the present, we would like to raise some of them. (1). First, as presidium chairman Ken~i Miyamoto said at a press conference, an end was put by the JCP-CPSII~talks at this time to the disrupted norn?al _ relationship between the two parties, which began with the Shiga issue, . and to the unnatural relations which have lasted for 15 years since the Shiga issue. At the preliminary talks in February this year, the Soviet side said that it did not ~ustify the publicax.~on of an article in PRAVDA supporting the Shiga clique, nor was it right to have published it, in an agreement paper issued by the preliminary talks in April, it was noted that the Japanese side appreciated affirmatively this point and it was clearly written that "the Soviet side also declared that any actions under the name of the communist movement by former members of the Japanese Communist Party or different groups are manifestation of antiparty activity and that the Soviet side has no relation with activities of such groups whatever flags ~ they may carry and whatever pretext they may use." 32 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY In the talks of both parties, including the summit talks, the important agreement made in the preliminary talks was confirmed, and at the beginning of the joint communique it is emphasized that the relationship between both parties will develop on the basis of the adherence to the universally~ recognized norms of independence, equal rights, noninterference in internal affairs and'solidarity in the solution of common tasks. ~ In accordance with given conditions in their countries, and led by scientific socialism and communism, each communist party has the right to determine independently its way to social progress and transformation in each country, transition to socialism, the building of socialism and communism, and no one can intervene in this. Vigorous development of solidarity between , coBnnunist parties of respective countries on the basis of agreed common tasks is possible only [if] all forms of hegemonism are rejected in the communist party relationship and the universally recognized standards are observed. Thus, in addition to the importance of respecting the independence and equal rights of the two parties, in the name and reality, the contents of authority of each party to decide independently are written more concretely and in more detail than ever before in the agreement this time between the _ two parties. This is the first time in this kind of an international , - _ document and holds an international significance. Moreover, there is no doubt that this agreement holds a positive significance in overcoming the split situation that is still left in the fields of the antinuclear weapons movement and the Japan-Soviet friendship movement. (2). Secondly, the joint communique says it is "important to develop a wide movement of the masses of the people, and to mobilize international opinion" for such actions as: opposition to the imperialist and reactionary forces' policies for aggression and oppression, Urgency of developing the struggles for a complete ban on nuclear weapons and an international agree- ment banning the use of them, in the light of the danger of the armaments race, especially the nuclear armaments race. Denunciation of the maneuvers to make Japan a nuclear base, especially Okinawa, and the new plan to deploy _ nuclear missiles in NATO countries. - The joint communique confirms that Indochina has become a new focal point of the international confrontation between the imperialist aggressive - forces, and the anti-imperialist peace forces, and political and economic _ aid to Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia is the common task of the international anti-imperialist peace forces. It is also taken up in the joint communique - that the armed invasion oi the Western and the northern parts of Vietnam - is an obvious action of hegemonism alien to socialism, and that this should be denounced. This is drawing attention as it holds great significance internationally. _ The joint communique, moreover, takes up the deterioration of the crisis of world capitalism, and the successive downfall of reactionary dictatorships 33 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~nd military regimes, and points out that the forces of peace, national independence, and social progress are advancing, in the universal trend. T'he joint communique confirms that in this situation the historic mission _ of the socialist countrtes, the working class and working people of rapltali~t countries, ~nd the national liberation movements, the three main revolutionary forces, has become more and more important. [OW271403] (3). Thirdly, the problems of both countries and the two peoples were taken up seriously in the talks, opinions were frankly - Expressed on the border issue, the so-called territorial question. ~�peaking about this question, the JCP's views and prospects for the Chishima (Kurile) Islands, including the southern Chishima Islands, are ' well-known as indicated in the published JCP program. - Some newspapers carry comments suspecting that the joint communique "carries no words referring to the territorial question." It is a common practice j.n international law that in a peace treaty, the demarcation of the border - lines will be settled between the belligerent countries, and needless to say, in the conclusion of a Japan-Soviet treaty for peace, the demarcation � cf the border lines and the demarcation of the territorial limits will be included. This was seriously discussed in the conferences, so that on the question of the conclusion of a Japan-Soviet treaty for peace, the joint c.ommunique says, we "reached agreement to continue exchanges af views" - on it. As Chairman Miyamoto said at the press conference, this provided evidence that the Soviet side has "ears to listen" to the "word of socialism." [as received] As for the Habomai Island and Shikotan Island, these islands are part of I:okkaido from the beginning, and are not included in the Chishima Island archipelago, which was renounced by the Japanese Government in the San Francisco "peace" treaty. The Japan-Soviet ~oint declaration in 1956 Frovides that the Soviet Union "in response to Japan's request, and in consideration of Japan's interests, agrees to hand over Habomai Island and Shikotan Island to Japan." Therefore the Japanese Communist Party made new proposals calling for an intermediate treaty, aimed at temporary Japan-Soviet friendship, and calling ; for package negotiations for the issue af the return of Habomai Island and Shikotan Island, by taking into account a deadlocked present situation of the signing of a Japan-Soviet peace treaty. The new proposals on the ~ : i.ntermediate treaty by the JCP were made from a positive wish and standpoint, - aimed at developing the relations between Japan and the Soviet Union, and peoples of both countries on a more friendly and stable basis. In the talks ~ it was agreed the "exchanges of opinions" will be continued ~y the Japanese ~ and the Soviet communist parties on issues related to both countries. ~ It is a matter of caurse that big reaction to the JCP's new proposals is . now rising in Japan as a reasonable and active mean [as received] to the development of friendship between Japan and the Soviet Union and to the advance of the so-called territorial issue. 34 ; FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ i i ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Together wi~h the proposal on the issues of fishery, kelp gathering and visits to graves, which is arousing repercussions as a creation of stir of "how the opposition parties should tackle diplomatic negotiations," and Soviet's favor of these proposals [passage as received], it can be said that this shows the responsible attitude of the JCP aiming at meeting the general interests of improvement of both countries' relations, and ~ world peace and security, (4). The talks at this time were held in the midst of the JCP's endeavors - to make a success of the 15th party congress to be held in February next year, with a party strengtl-, of "500,000 members and 4 million organ paper subscribers." After having won the biggest ever parliamentary strength in the gene~'al election, held as the last one in the 1970's, defeating various anticommunist attacks and maneuvers by antiparty groups. The ~oint communique in conclusion says both parties are convinced that the _ talks of both parties at this time will not only open the way to th~ development of friendly relations between the two parties and two peoples, but also have great significance for the cause of peace and progress in the world and f4r the international communist movement. The draft resolution of the 15th congress of the Japanese Communist Party also stresses: "The ~ role of the struggle of the work-_ng class and people of Japan, the only highly developed capitalist country in Asia, is very great in the inter- national arena, too." In order to make headway in the struggle for the progressive transformation of national politics, as the domestic and international situation needs, and to contribute to the struggle against intrigues by the forces of aggression and reaction led by U.S. imperialism, we are resolved to achieve our immediate tasks. This will add significance to the success of the talks between the JCP and the CPSU, which have evoked great reactions. CSO: 4120 35 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL I, . 1. . . . , i, f I ~ . JCP ADOPTS RESOLUTION ON NDW YEAR ACTIVITIES OW141021 Tokyo JPS in English 0915 GMT 14 Jan 80 OW [Quotation marks as received] [Text] Tokyo, Jan 14, JPS--The Presidiwn of the Central Committee of the Japanese Communist Party on January 12 unanimously adopted a resolution "On the new year party ~activiti~s for a successful 15th party congress, ; and preparations for the House of Councillors election." The gist of the resolution follows: 1. "Since the last year, more and more party organizations have come foith, one after another, that have attained the goal of expansion of the'party strength in a short period of time, aiming at "the 500,000 party membership, and the 4,000,000 AKAHATA readership." But it is required : that "all organizations and members give their best efforts in the remaining period of time to accamplish needed tasks" for a successful party congress, which will convene in a little over 40 days, and for a ~ victory in th~ House of Councillors election to be held in five months. i 2. "With the increased communist ~iet members group, the JCP activities - in and out of the Diet, representing the voice of the people, are strongly expected of from all quarters. [as received] including the defense of the paople's living, and the investigation into and the eradication of - irregularities and corruptions in politics. "The people's sympathy with the JCP position is spreading, which is based ~ on the truth and reason, indicated in the Japanese and the Soviet communist parties talks, and in the statement on the Afghan issue. ~ "The voice of the public, including supporters of the socialist party, is rising against such right leaning line as...the anti-progressive trend of the socialist party, and the swing to the right of the leadership of the General Council of Trade Unions of Japan (Sohyo), in addition to the ~ role of the Komei and the Democratic Socialist parties. 3. "One activity for a successful preparation of the party congress is that all party members carefully read the party congress draft discussion ~ 36 FOR OFFICIAL USL ONLY ~ ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY items on the agenda, and all party organizatior~s and groups deepen their discussion on it, and through branch meetings to be held in the latter - p,Yrt of January, district committee and prefectural meeting committee m,eetings to'be held from the be innin throu h mid-Februar in ` g~ 8 8 y, prepara- tions for th~ party congress, all views in the party be reflected positively in the party congress. [as received] "There are prefectural and district committees, in which the ma~ority of the party membership have so far finished reading the items on the agenda, and prefectural and district committees in which more than 90 percent of branches are carrying on discussion of the agenda, but on the other hand, there are some district committees, in which only abot~t 20 percent of thei~ party branches have proceeded to discuss the agenda items. "Leading prefectural and district committees have strengthened their leadership and assistance to the party members' reading of the agenda, and the branch discussion, in such activities as the party organizations holding many explanation meetings on the congress agenda; distributing recorded tapes to assist the agenda reading of ~he new rc:cruits to the ~ party, and the old party members and publishing a party news or a ne�as letter answering or explaining doubts and inquiries, which are often e presented in the branch discussion. On party branches which have fallen behind in reading and discussian, the party organizations must take into ~ account the real situation whether the pamphlet "The 1~th Party Congress Agenda Items" is actually handed to all party members, and how respective party members are reading discussion items on the agenda and the branch discussion of the agenda are proceeding." _ 4. "The ground-swell of the movement for the expansion of the party strength is rapidly rising with the coming of a new year...but there are some party organiza?:ions, in which the AKAHATA readersfi ig still remains under the level at the time of the previous party congress and which have not extricated themselves from the state, "The slackening which needs immediate attention." "The expansion of the party membership, on the other hand, has nationally advanced over the level of the previous congress....However, six prefectural committees, including the Tochigi, have not broken through the state, "the retardation, which the party membership is less than 0.2 percent in comparison with the prefectural population." Many big prefec- tural committees including the Tokyo and Osaka, and party organizations which keep Diet members, have not yet displayed their full capacity fitting to their strength.... The most crucial factor for this situation is that being satis~`ied with a small success in the general election, the tendency _ to be self-satisfied with the present situation has not yet been overcome. _ "The experience and the achievements of the district committees, which - have so far attained the goals set in the "expansion months, are matured - in all places today. "It is important to drive home to all party members that their task is very light, if it is taken on the average for an individual member, and have them apply best efforts." - 37 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 r~uk OFFICIAL USE ONLY 5. In regard to the Aouse of Councillors election, "we should keep in mind that the election will be proclaimed in the first half of June." "We should not fall into the error of stage-by-stage c2mpaigning, to begin the election preparations after the conclusion of the party congress.... It is important for us to start making particularly election preparations at once. "The forthcoming Upper House election... ~ will be the opportunity for us to ~lect all national constituency candidates by obtaining the highest votes in the postwar period, to maintain stable seats of the incumbents in the local constituencies challenging new seats, and to surely make a big advance in the national elections including the next House of Representatives election, in the 1980's. ~ CSO: 4120 38 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL MIDEAST ENVOYS ISSUE PROPOSALS AFTER TOKYO TALKS _ OW221341 Tokyo JIJI in English 1251 GMT 22 Dec 79 OW [Text] Tokyo, Dec. 19 (JIJI Press)--Following are "proposals of the 1979 conference of Japanese ambassadors stationed in the Middle East, as announced in English on Dec. 13 by the Foreign Office through the Foreign Press Center: (The meeting took place in Tokyo for 3 days from Dec. 11.) (Begin text) In recent years, retations between Japan and the countries � of the Middle East have become increasingly close in�various fields against . the background of growing recognition in Japan of the importance of this relationship. The interdependence of Japan ~nd thsse countries has accordingly deepened rapidly. The situation surrounding the Middle East is showing further signs of tension, and future developments should be watched carefully in view of the global implications, both political and economic. In fact, dr~ring the present meeting, a grave situation is being confronted in connection with the taking of hostages and occupation of the United States Embassy in Tehran. This demonstrates beyond doubt that relations with the Middle Eastern countries form an integral part of Japan's global diplomacy, including relations with the U.S. which constitutes the pivot of our foreign policy. _ In such a situation, the conference has discussed future Japanese policy based on thE principles of independence and continuity toward the Middle East. Views were frankly exchanged on ways and means to establish a truly welcome Japanese gresence in the Middle East, by maintaining and promoting friendly and cooperative bilateral relations with the countries in the region, while fully giving consideration to their particular positions. _ Accordingly, the conference makes the following proposals: - 1. Japan should further promote exchange of visits by leading personalities, ~ as well as interchanges in the fields of culture and sports. This is in order to deepen mutual understanding with the Middle Eastern countries, as efforts in this direction have so far lagged behind Western Europe and America. It is also necessary to further develop balanced understanding on the part of the Japanese people of the history, culture and religions of the Middle Eastern peoples. , - 39 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY It is especially desired that an early visit to the Middle East by the prime minister of Japan will materialize, as well as visits to Japan by leader~ oC the M.Lddle ~~~Htern countrie~. it iy F~1so nec~eRR~ry for the foreign minister and other cabinet members to take every opportunity to make frequent visits to these countries. Moreover, in view of Japan's lack of close historical relations with the Middle East, basic studies on the area and academic exchange should be further promoted. _ 2. Through more flexible application and further improvement of the ex~sting system for economic and technical cooperation, Japan should make constant efforts to expand cooperation with the developing Middle Eastern countries, whether oil-producing or non-oil-producing, �or their socio- _ economic development and the stabilization of the livelihood of their peoples, in order to contribute to their nation-building and human resources develop- ~ ment. 3. In order to secure suppliea of energy from the Middle East, Japan _ should make efforts to stabilize the oi1 markets through international cooperation to cope with the changing world energy situation. At the same time, Japan shou].d endeavor to restrain demand and to develop alterna- tive sources of energy. By taking such wide-ranging measures as mentioned above, including promotion of mutual understanding and cooperation with - nation-buiJ_ding and hum~n resources development, while remaining sensitive to specific local needs, Japan should reinforce bilateral relations with the countries in the region. 4. In conformity with its basic position on the problem of peace in the Middle East, Japan should extend as much cooperation as possible to attain peace and stability in the region, and to maintain the territorial integrity and security of all the Middle Eastern countries in accordance with Resolution 242 of the United Nations Security Council. Moreover, bearing in mind that the question of Palestine is at the heart of the problem of peace in the Middle East, and that the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) represents ~he Palestinians, the dialogue already conducted with the PLO should be further promoted. - 5. In view of the fact that relations with the Middle Eastern countries - involve energy and other extremely complex and divergent problems, it is important for the government to ensure well-coordinated implementation of external policies from a comprehensive viewpoint in both its political - and economic aspects. Care should be taken so that misunderstandings and . sources of friction do not arise both at home or abroad. Accordingly, the government should establish a highly flexible administrative setup fully capable of coping with this situation. _ 6. It is essential for the government to improve and expand its diplomatic efforts. To this end, the relevant budget, as well as the number of personnel in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in the field shoulZ be increased to a level sufficient enough to execute Middle East policy. Likew~.se the training of more experts on the Middle East, strengthened ' 40 , FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAI, USF. ONLY ~ measures relating to staff welfare in hardship postings, and relating to - Japanese residents in the area should be taken. The government should ' ~nl~o secure its own m~uns uf transport for pot~sible emergency attuation~ which might require the repatriation of Japanese residents. CSO: 4120 41 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ` - POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL 'JAPAN TIMES' ON SDF'S FOREIGN BROADCASTS MONITORING CAPABILITY OW070542 Tokyo THE JAPAN TIMES in English 6 Jan 80 p 9 OW [Text] "Foreign intelligence is more important than weapons for a nati4n such as Japan having armed forces only for defense. We must have the rab- bit's sharp pars in collecting intelligence," said Yasuhiro Nakasone in 1970 when he was director general of the Defense Agency. How aharp are "the rabbit's ears"? ' Zn September 1971 in Guangzhou, southern China, about 10 Japanese tourists were held up for about a week waiting for an airplane to Bei~ing. Chinese officials blamed the del.ay on bad wegther in Bei3ing, and the travelers did not doubt the explanation at all. - About the same time, however, the Japanese self-defense forces were paying much attention as they monitored broadcasts from Mainland China, including arders canceling flights and soldiers' leave. _ T.heee telecommunicationa were monitored by a detachment of the ground staff affice's intelligence department. - Ten months later, China announced that Chinese Communist Party Vice Chairman Lin Biao died during a getaway attempt by plane after failing to carry out a coup d'etat to September 12, 1971. The mystery was solved. The "rabbit's ears" had got wind of the Lin Biao case. _ = 7.'he listening unit, established in 1953, has a~staff of about 1,050 persons - and nine monitoring facilities across the country, an official of the De- fense Agency told the House of Repreaentatives cabinet committee in June 1.975. Among the facilities, the Miho branch in Tottori Prefecture has the most up-to-date array of antennae (75 meters in diameter), whose nickname is "the elephant cage." ~ 42 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . ~ Foreign electronic intelligence received by each facility is sent to the unit's headquArters in Ichigaya in Tokyo. The headquarters analyzes the data and deciphers coded meaeages. "Soviet television broadcasts from Sakhalin can be watched at the headquart- ers," an intelligence official said. Even noting fluctuations in wireless teleco~unications traffic aad the di- recti~ons of radio emissions can be valuable. During large-ecale troop movements, the amount of radio traffic increases. If transmissions stop abruptly, it may mean a surprise attack is imminent. Monitoring radio broadcasts is an activity conducted by every nation, offi- - cials of the agency say. In the United States, it ~s the ~ob of the Na- tional Security Agency (NSA). The NSA has about 2,000 ra~io monitoring facilities scattered all over the world, according to an exposure by an NSA crpptanalyst who def.ected to the Soviet Union. During the Sino-Vietnamese war last February, Washington released much de- tailed inf.ormation on the battles. Intelligence specialists here believe . it was based on intelligence received by reconnaissan~ satellites and "elephant cage" antennae at Clark Air Base in the Philippines. The aritennae are said to have caught even short-range uncoded radio com- _ munications during the fighting. The Japanese "rabbit's ears" can cover the Korean peninsula, the Soviet Far East and continental China to fairly far inland, an intelligence offi- cial said. COPYRIGHT: The Japan Times 1979 CSO: 4120 43 , FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFrICIAL USE ONLY ~ POI.T1'T(:Al. AND SOCIOIAGICAL ~ BRIEFS ~ SIBERIAN DEVELOPMENT AID--Tokyo, 7 Jan (JIJI PRESS)--A leader of the ruling Liberal-Democratic Party Monday hinted at the possibility of slowing Japan's cooperation in t'he development of natural resources in , Siberia by way of protest against the 5oviet Union's incursion into _ Afghanistan. Even a slight slowdown of 3oint Siberian development would ccnsiderably affect the Soviet Union, he stated. The LDP will stronply ' protect the Russian action when Soviet ambassador in Tokyo Dmitriy Polyanskiy pays a courtesy call on three top LDP executives and other leaders Tuesday afiter.noon. [Text] [OW071351 Tokyo JIJI in English 1256 GMT 7 Jan 80 OW] CSO: 4120 ; 44 FOR OFFICIb;. USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAi~ USE ONLY ECONOMIC RESEARCH BODY PREDICTS 1980 GROWTH RATF. OF 3.5 PERCENT OW091118 Tokyo MAINICHI DAILY NEWS in English 8 Jan 80 p 5 OW ["An Economic Forecast for Fiscal 1980," by Mitsubishi Research Institute, released in December] [Text] 1. World demand-supply outlook for oil: In 1980, total oil consumption of the free world is expected to decline , from the levels reached in 1979. Reasons for anticipating this decline are: (a) that successive price hikes by OPEC have triggered off consider- ~ able progress in the conservation efforts of the oil importing countries, (b) that the world economy is heading for a recession and so demand for oil ought to level off accordingly. On the supply side, the outlook is relatively bright with only a modest _ decline expected for total free world production. No doubt the OPEC - countries will attempt to reinforce their production cutback, however, the effect of this will be partially offset by increase~i supply from non- OPEC sources. Such being the circumstances, demand-supply conditions are expected to relax somewhat in the coming year however, conditions are bound to become - strained over the long run. It has become the OPEC countries' basir_ ~ position to preserve their resources and therefore, large increases can no longer be expected in the production levels of the larger OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia. Some countries which feel that they have already earned enough from their exports of crude oil, may even start cutting down rapidly on their supplies. - 2. The world economy and the world trade outlook: In the year 1980, growth rate for six ma~or OECD countrie3 (the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, West Germany, France and Italy) is expected to average at minus 0.5 percent. Given negative growth in economic activity, import demand in these countries is sure to remain subdued. Consequently, - the volume of world imports is expected to grow by only a mere 2.0 percent = in 1980. - 45 - FOR OFFICIi~:., USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 3. Outlook for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 1980: Balance of Payments Sustained by a downslide in the yen's exchange rate, Japan's exports have been growing at a steady pace throughout fiscal 1979. However, because of *_he fact that they started from a relatively low starting point at the end of fiscal 1978, volume increase for the year as a whole is expected to average a modest 2.4 percent. Tncreases in export prices will also be modest owing to the yen's deprecia- tion. The year-on-year rate of export price increase is projected at 3.7 percent. As a result, the value of customs exports for the year is expected - to grow by 6.2 percent and stand at $105.0 billion. Meanwhile, crude oil imports are expected to reach $37.8 billion in fiscal 1979. Imports of other goods are pro~ected to see an 11.0 percent increase in volume coupled with a 20.2 percent rise in prices. In consequence, the value of total customs imports is expected to reach $11$.8 billion: an increase of 40.5 percent over fiscal 1978. As a result, Japan's IMF based trade balance is expected to post a deficit _ of $2.3 billion in fiscal 1979. This will be the first time in 16 years for Japan's trade balance to show a deficit position. Our current account _ balance is also expected to mark a deficit of $13.8 billion. For fiscal 1980, the volume of crude oil imports is pro~ected at 275 million = ~:LS, corresponding to a 1.5 percent 3ecline against fiscal '79 levels. Assuming that higher prices will facilitate conservation, this valume of imported oil supply ought to more or less equal the level of total domestic - consumption. In normal circumstances, such a tight demand-supply balance - would arouse fears of supply shortage. Fiowever, as the current level of reserve stock is quite high, we may say that basically, there are no serious problems of supply shortfall to be anticipated in fiscal 1980. On the other hand, oil prices are expected to come under continuing upward pressure throughout the year. In the face of rising oil prices, there is little hope of a rapid return to surplus in our balance of payments. Exports are expected to retain their momentum in fiscal 1980 with a 6.4 , percent increase in volume and a 5.3 percent rise in prices. This will result in a customs clearance value of $117.6 billion with an increase of 12.0 percent over fiscal 1979. On the import side, while the level of oiZ imports is expected to reach some $50 billion, imports of other raw materials and manufactured goods are expected to remain sluggish. As a result, the value of imports excluding oil is projected to grow by a mere 5.6 percent. Even so, the value of total customs imports will still soar to a record $136.5 billion. 4h .FOR OFFICI'n,'., USE UNLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFr1CIAL U5E ONLY Consequently, .lapan's balance of payments is expected to post a deficit of $5.5 billion in its trade account. Notwithstanding a aizable improve- ment in our balance in invisibles, the current account deficxt is expected to reach $14.9 billion. Hence, the Japanese economy will be faced with a return of the balance of payments constraint which had been virtually non- eixstent throughout the 1970s. It goes without saying that any forecast concerning the turn of events in fiscal 1980 must depend heavily on the development in ~rude oil prices. Our forecast for fiscal '80 assumes an annual average level of $29.4 per barrel for our customs import price of crude oil. Should prices stay relati~.~ely stable throughout the year and our cost of crude oil imports remain at $26 per barrel instead of our $29 assumption, our current account deficit would then shrink from the fiscal '79 level of $13.8 billion to less than $10 billion. [OW091122] View of FY '80 From the October-December quarter of 1978 up until the July-September quarter of 1979, the Japanese ec~nomy enjoyed a period of expansion that was led primarily by the domestic private sector. Throughout the October-December quarter of 1978 to the January-March - quarter of 1979, personal consumption expenditure and private investments were the main elements of growth. In the following April-June quarter, private investments began to falter, but housing investments took its place to keep up the pace of private sector expansion. However, the July-September quarter of 1979 saw a slowdown in consumer - spending and a change to negative growth in housing investment so that the external sector became the major contributing factor to growth. Thus in the July-September quarter, we saw once more the resurgence of export-led growth. In fiscal 1980, all the components of the domestic private sector are ~ expected to suffer a slowdown in their growth rates. - _ To begin with, personal consumption expenditure can only be expected to ~row by 3.3 percent in real terms. 4]hile only a modest increase can be hoped for in disposable personal income, consumer prices are pro~ected to rise by 8.9 percent for the year, so that purchasing power of households is bound to decline. Private plant and equipment investment is expected to see very little ~ change from fiscal '79 levels. Rising interest rates, shrinking profit margins and uncertainties concerning the future will work to restrain - investment activity. Investments aimed at rationalization and those for . 47 FOR OFFICIr~L USE UNLY _ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFrICIAL USE ONLY mlintenance :ind repair, which had been sustaining the volume of capital s~?endinq in the manufacturinR sector, are also expected to peter off ~radually. Iri spite of the very limited expansion anticipated for world trade (.20 percent in terms of import volume), Japan's exports are pro~ected to grow by a healthy 6.0 percQnt in fiscal 1980. On the other hand, imports are er.pected to see a modest decline. C~iuses of Decline Causes for this decline would be: (a) that the slowdown in domesti~ busi- ness activity wil�1 result in reduced demand for raw materials imports, (b) that the hitherto steady increase in manufactured goods impo~ts is expected to lose much of its momentum in the coming year. As a result, surplus of the nation on the current account is expected to grow by a hefty 27 percent in real terms. Thus, Japan's GNP is expected to grow by 7.7 percent and 3.5 percent in nominal and real terms, respectively. The real term growth rate of 3.5 per- cent is the lowest figure since fiscal 1975 when the rate of expansion was a meager 3.2 percent. _ Iri spite of slu~gish final demand, no drastic change is anticipated in iriventory investment behavior. Every since the first oil crisis, companies h~~ve clearly become more cautious and skilled in their handling of stocks. Coupled with this fact, monetary policy turned restrictive at a time when ttiere was sti11 no sign of excessive inventory accumulation and the inven- tary-shipment rate was close to optimum for most industries. For these reasons, it is hoped that unlike the situation following the fi.rst oil crisis, the fiscal 1980 economy will require only a minor ad,just- mFnt in stock levels. ~ Ihie mainly to OPEC price increases, the price of imported goods is expected ~ to continue its upsurge well into the first half of fiscal 1980. rhe expected rise in electric power charges ought to add further momentum to , ir?flationary pressures. These factors will combine to sustain rapid infla- tion at the wholesale level throughout the first half of f iscal 1980. However, parallel to a deceleration in the rise in import prices, the over- ' a].1 rate of wholesale inflation should also begin to level off in the ldtter half of the year. The year-on-year rate of wholesale price increase is projected at 7.6 percent. Consumer Prices Consumer prices which have so far remained relatively stable will begin to increase rapidly as the effects of wholesale price rises begin to seep _ 48 FOR OFFICIA:. USE UNLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY = through to the consumer level. Moreover, a round of public utility charge increases is scheduled in the coming sprin~ and this will also work to hoogC thE~ rate of consumer inflation. 'I'he annual averaqe increase in consumer prices is expected to stand at 8.9 percent, so that as opposed to �iscal 1979 when the rate of wholesale price increases outpaced that of consumer inflation, consumer prices will once again become the predominant concern in the area of domestic inf lation. Thus, in fiscal 1980, the Japanese economy will be confronted with the dual problem of high inflationary pressure and a deteriorating balance of payments position. Compared to circumstances that prevailed following the first oil crisis, the current situation is relatively better placed in that~ the inflation rate is lower and that the econony has not been running at such a rapid pace as was the case prior to the quadrupling of oil prices in 1973. Judging from these factors, we may assume that the possibility for a severe recession of the ~egative growth type is relatively low for the coming year, however, the situation is most certainly a diff icult one. With a negative growth rate for the world economy, Japan could not expect to rely on exports to lead the way out of recession. Moreover, depending on what form the new OPEC pricing strate~y will take, we may have to be prepared for a prolonged period of painful adjustment. The foremost policy for Japan to take in the face of such circumstances, - would be to fight and to succeed in holding down the rate of domestic infla- tion. COPYRIGHT: riainichi Daily News 1980 CSO: 4120 49 FOR OFFICIAL U:~E ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240040054-6 FOR OFFICIE#L USE ONLY FCONOMIC ''.MAINICHI' EDITORIAL ON WHITE PAPER ON ECONOMIC AID OW311243 Tokyo MAINICHI DAILY NEF1S in English 30 Dec 7~ no page given OW ~ [Editorial: "White Paper on Economic Aid"] [Text] The "white paper on Japan's economic aid for 1979," issued by the , Ministry of Interuational Trade and Industry, retrospects on the progreas made in the:so-called "aorth-south dialogue" in the past 20 yeare. The issue, arising from conflicting views and interests bet~reen the have and have-not countries, has preaented itself as one of the most knotty global problems since the 1960s. ' Deepite many and earnest attempts to resolve the problem, it atill remaina ' a difficult one to solve and may be even more so in the furure. ' Disarray shown=`among the OPEC (Orgaaization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) ' nations, and their subsequeat failure to set unified oil price standards at their Caracas, Venezuela, general meeting, once again remind us of the dif- ; ficulty of dealing with the problem, a difficulty mainly posed by develop- ~ iag countries. The disarray among the developing ccuztries complicated mat- ters by preaenting a"south-south" problem--a problem of conflicting inter- eats among the cou~triea in the south. The "south-south" discord was also evident in the general meeting of the United Nationa Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) held in Manila , last May. The disagreements, coupled with declining eathueiasm on the part ~ of the induatrialized countries about nffering sid, brought the conference ~ to what seemed to be diacouraging end. IYiITI's white paper outlines the present state of the north-south issue. How- ever, in describing Japan's role as a mediator, it appears to go too far. _ While hailing the Man31a meeting as a ma~or mileatoae in the hiatory of the ; "continuous north-south dialogu~," it stresses "Japan's ma~or contribution ~ to ward solving the iseue" in a manner which can be considered as exaggerated. ~ 50 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ : I, APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - Also, i~ preaents an itnpneasion of self-praise by Japan, even going to the extent of noting "Japan's act3ve leadership" in guiding the advanced coun- tries to some agreem~nta on the north-south probletn at the Tokyo aummit. - Admitt~dly, industrialized countries' offers of economic cooperation to developing natione would be one of the most effective means of solving the - thorny issue. But as far as we could see in the white paper, it appEare ~s Japan's understanding of the seriousnesa of the problem is ineuffi~ient. A ma~or feature of the white a er ie that it p p proposes linking econc,mic co- operation with Japan's "economic security" with regard to energy and minerals and other raw materials. Another ma~or feature is that it recommends that - extension of aid be planned from an overall viewpoint, by coordinating domestic, industrial, trade and natural resonrce factors and energy poli- cies instead of viewing the aid as an entity in itself. ~ The paper takes up five immediate problems facing Japan with respect to co- operation with developing countries which include increasing Japan's offi- cial development aid and making adjustments in domest3c industries. As for the latter, it has already been pointed out that Japan's economic cooperation will not be as ef�ective as hoped unless Japan opens its markets more widely to developing countries. ' ~ One thing that makes the paper seem somewha.t unsatisfactory is that it fails to go into details about a series of major cooperation pro3ects which sur- faced recently. They include the controversial government investment in a Japan-Iranian ~oint petrochemical project undertaken in Iran by the Mitsui Industrial _ group and massive yen loans for Chinese economic development. _ Winning a national consensus is a prerequisite to making econ~mic coopera- tion fruitful, and it is even more so when the country is gasping under the pressure of slow economic grwoth and deteriorated national finances. _ The refusal to refer in detail to such import~nt pro~ects as mentioned above is certain to make the paper's major proposals--directing economic cooperation at establishi.ng eocnomic security and offering such cooperatfon fram an overall viewpoint--less aignificant. COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Daily News 1979 CSO: 4120 51 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200044454-6 ECONOMIC MITI CALLS FOR MORE AID TO OIL-PRODUCING NATIONS OW241017 Tokyo ASAHI EVENING NEWS in English 22 D=c 79 p 1 OW [Text] The Ministry of International Trade and Industry Friday called for the expansion of economic aid to oil-producing countrfes ta secure stable - energy supplies. - In its "White Paper on economic aid for 1979," the MTTI proposed linking aconomic assistance to developing countries with promoting Japan's "economic security" with regard to energy, mineral resources and raw materials. ^or this purpose, it stressed the need of giving more yen loans to petroleum- ~~roducing countries and encouraging private ~oint-venture projects with them. :[t also said that assistance should be given to developing countries vn the development of geothermal energy, solar heat and other alternative energy :~ources . - The white paper pointed out that the oil-price increase after the Iranian revolution is posing a much more serious economic threat to the non-oil- producing developing nations than the 1973 energy crisis. I.t, therefore, ~ urged advanced countri.es to step up their cooperation in the developing world's efforts to use energy more efficiently and to develop energy sources. - In the 1980's, it stressed, emphasis in economic aid should be placed on the expansion of employment in the developing countries to expedite their economic ' independence. At the same time, it called on the Third World to make - increased efforts of its own, including social reforms and pro~ects to curb population growth. According to the MITI report, Japan's overseas economic assistance for 1978 - totaled $10,700 million, almost double the $5,500 million for the previous year, and its ratio against the nation's gross national product (GNP) rose , from 0.8 percent to 1.09 percent. Japan's amount for 1978 was the second biggest, after that of the United States, among the 17 member countries of the Development Assistance Cvmmittee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (~ECD). 52 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY However, the amount of officxal development aid (ODA), thP most important - portion of aid for the recipients, came to anly $2,200 million. Its ratio ~ against the GNP was 0.23 percent (0.21 percent for 1977), which was much smaller than the international goal of 0.7 percent, and placed Japan - 13th (14th in 1977) among the 17 DAC members. - The MITI white paper declined to refer in detail to the controversial government investment in a Japanese-Iranian joint petrochemical pro~ect undertaken in Iran by the Mitsui industrial group and the massive yen loans intended for Chinese economic development. COPYRIGHT: Asahi Evening News, 1979 CSO: 4120 . 53 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ECONOMIC GOVERNMENT TO MAKE PUBLIC SUPER-LSI PATENTS OW050925 Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN in Japanese 1 Jan 80 Morning Edition p 1 OW - [Excerpt] Japan's super large-scale integrated circuit (LSI) technolo~y, the world's foremost, will soon be made fully public. Tt?e government has - decided to disclose in January the hitherto undisclosed super-LSI patents, - owned either 3ointly by the government and private firms or excluaively by the government, and to permit even foreign enterprises to use them if they pay accordingly. The government made the decision to comply with the U.S. demand to open the technological door, since Japan-U.S. trade frictions are possible over semiconductors. It is anticipated the United States will - zegard super--LSI and other technologie~, developed by Japan through coopera- ~:ion between the government and private sector, as "NTB" [nontariff barriersJ, and trade problems in the 1980s are expected to take a new direction in- voling the development of technologies. On these grounds, the government plans to disclose the results of large-scale research and development pro- jects and open Japan's technological market as much as possible. The 1980s are called the "decade of super-LSI." To prepare for this decade, t:he government in 1976 introduced a system under which the government and private sector jointly develop super-LSI, and so far it h~s outlaid some 30 billion yen in subsidies. Charged with this development project is the super-LSI technological research union, which is comprised of the Nippon Electric Company, Hitachi Ltd, Toshiba Corporation, Fu~itsu Ltd. and Mitsubishi Electric Corporation. 7'he super-LSI patents are classified into three categories: Privately uwned patents developed by researchers from the five union members; patents ~ointly developed by researchers from private firnts and the Government Industrial Technology Research Institute; and state-owned patents developed ~ exclusively by researchers of the Governments' Industrial Technology Re- search Institute. Of the three, Japan began disclosing privately owned patents about a year ago and the five union members have been exchanging - their patented technologies with IBM, Texas Instruments and ~ther U.S. c.omputer and semiconductor makers. 54 FOR OFFICIe~,'.. USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 k'OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY s. Japan, however, has not been disclosing the two other categories of patents, in order to protect state-owned property and individuals' rights and interests. Patent applications relating to super-LSI filed so far number some 600 cases, most of which are privately owned patents. Patent applications"filed for ~oint government and private ownerahip and exclusive gover~ent ownership number some 30 cases. The increasing U.S. criticism of exports of Japan-made semiconductors in the recent period led the Japanese Government to make publicly available all super~-LSI technology. While Japan's current-accounts balance has begun showing a large deficit, it is feared exports of automotiiles and semicon- ductors will generate a ma~or trade dispute between Japan and the United States. Japanese semiconductors make up only 4 or 5 percent of the U.S. market. But speaking of the 16-kilo-liit LSI alone, which is considered frontier technology in se~niconductors, the share last year was approximately 4C1 percent, and th~~ figure is expected to grow further and surpass the 50- percent level this year. This frontier teclinology involves what Japan has achieved in its research and development of super-LSI, and this :Ls why - Texas Instruments and other U.S. firrss have been demanding that Japan make its super-LSI technology completely public. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1980 CSO: 4105 - 55 FOR OFFICIti; USE ONLY - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6 rux ur~~'1C1AL US~ ONLY SCI~ICE AND TECHNOLOGY - - JAPAN'S KYOTO IIDTIVERSITY TO COI~LETE N-FUSION DEVICE IN JANUARY 4W060211 Tokyo THE JAPAN TIl~IES in English 4 Jan 80 p 2 OW _ [Text] Kyoto (KYODO)--An experimental facility to contain high temperature plasma, or ionized gas, is scheduled to be completed this month at Kyoto University's heliotron nuclear fusion research center. The center is planning to carry out experiments on the containment and con- trol of high temperature plasma beginning in May. 2'he facility has been under conatruction since 1976 at an ;~atimated cost of 9.1 billion yen. The facility, na~aed Heliotron E, is degigned to increaee the temperature and denaity of plasma to a level directly below tha~ needed f.or nuclear fusion. The facility has been developed with Ryoto University's owa technology. Heliotron E is a doughnut-shaped vacuum tube with a spiral coil wound around ~ it. A generator with an output capacity of 330,000 kw built next to it runs electric current through the coil. A powerful magnetic field is devel- oped ineide the coil in order to control the plasma "envelope." The ionized gas ia further heated by radiating it with neutral particles. Relatively high-density, high-temperature plasma is conf3ned within the magnetic field for 0.02 to 0.1 second, according to researchers at the center. l~uclear fusion, the eame reaction which keeps the sun ablaze, is conaidered a new energy source for the 21st century. To contral thermonuclear fusion on the earth, it is ~ecessary to confine plasmas of about 100 million C at a very h3gh density for about 1 to 2 seconds. COPYRIGHT: The Japan Times 1980 " CSO: 4120 END 56 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200040054-6