JPRS ID: 74746 NEAR EAST/NORTH AFRICA REPORT FUTURE OF ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUSTRIES IN EGYPT TO 2000

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000200030025-9
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• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 78
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 25
• Content Type: REPORTS

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~ _ I N TO ~ ~

ii ~ECEMBER i979 N0. 2856 i OF i
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JPRS 74746
11 Decernber 1979 -
~ear East North Africa Re ort
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- Nfl. 2~056 -
Future o~ Electronic Industries in E~gypt to 2000~
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Fg~~ FOREIGIV BROADCAST INFORM~4TION S~F~VICE '
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- sos~~ -io~
REPORT DOCUMENTATION 1. REPORT NO. 2. R~eipi~nt�s Ace~ssion No.
PAGE JPRS 74746
_ 4. litle and Subtitle S. R~poR D~t~
NEAR EAST/NORTH AFR~CA RE?ORT, No. 2056 11 December 1979
Futur~ of Electronic Industries in Egypt to 2000 6� I
7. Authorfs) 0. P~Aormin~ ~)r~anl=~tion R~Dt. No.
Ptrforming Organl:atlon Nam~ ~nd Addnss 10. Pro~~et/T~fk/Work Unlt No.
Joint Publications Research Service
1000 North Glebe Road co~enouc~ o? c..~etc~ No. _
~ _
Arlington, Yirginia 22201 cc> =
(G)
12. Sponsori~a Orgsni:stion N~m~ snd Addr~ss 1~. Typ~ of Report ~ Perlod Cov~nd
As above
i~.
15. Supplement:ry Notes
16. Abstnet (Limit: 200 words)
This serial report contains information on socioeconc>mic, government, political,
and technical developments in the countries of the Near East and North Africa.
I 17. Documant Analysis a. Dascr(pton '
~ Political Science Inter-Arab Affairs Libya Sultanate
Sociology North African Mauritania of Oman
Economics Af�airs Morocco Syria
- Culture (Social Afghanistan People's Demo- Tunisia
Sciences) Algeria cratic Republic United Arab
Ethnology Bahrain of Yemen Emirates
Geography x Egypt P.ersian Gulf Western Sahara
Techological Iran Area Yemen Arab
Military Sciences Ixaq Qatar R~public
Israel Saudi Arabia
Jordan Spanish North -
Kuwait Africa
Lebanon Sudan
b. IAentifiers/Open�Ended Terrr;
c. COSATI Field/Group .5D ~.SCi ~ 51~ ~ 1~
Ie. Availability Statemant 19. Seuirity Cl~ss (This Re; ort) 21. No of P~~~s
Unlimil�.ed Availability UNCLASSIFIED 74
Sold by NTIS Y0, S~eurity Cl~ss (This Pag~) 22. Priee
Springfield, Vir;inia 22161 UNCLASSIFIED
(See ANSI-239.18) S~~ Insfruetlons on R~v~n� OPTIONAL FORM 272 (~-7)1
(formerly N71~3S)
O~pMmant of Curnmeru
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JPRS 74746
11 December 1979
NEAR EASTlNORTH AFRICA REPORT
No. 2056
FUT~JRE OF ~LECTRONIC INDUSTRIES IN EGYPT TO ZOOO
_ Cairo AL-SINA'AT AL-ILIKTRUNIYAH FI MISR WA MUSTAQABALUHA HATTA
'P,MM ALFAYN in Arabic i979 pp 1-157 .
[Report: "The Electronic Industries in Egypt and Their Future Until the -
- Year 2000"]
[Excerpts] The Presidency of the Republic
The Specialized National Councils
_ Electronic Industries in Egypt ~nd Their Future ilntil the Year 2000
Cairo, 1979.
The National Council for Production and Economic Affairs
- Report Presented to His Excellency the President of the Republic on the
Electronic Indugtries in Egy~t and Their Future Until the Year 2000.
~ Cairo, 1979. ~
In the name ~f vod, the merciful and the compassionate:
His Excellency the President of the Republic, ~
A greeting blessed by God,
The National Council for Production and Economic Aff~irs is devoting spe-
cial attention to study{ng the strategic industries in Egypt and to draw-
- ing up long-term policies to develop and enhance them and define their
future until the year 2000.
The attached report deals with the electronic industries in their capacity
as some of the fundau~ental mainstays of numerous industries, led by the
tetecommunications equipment industry and the war industxies. The council's
- 1- [III -NE &A- 121]
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Industrial Production Branch prepared a comprehenaive study on these indus-
tries, assisted by the information and data available to it, and preaented -
its study to the council. In the light of this study and of the opinions
and proposals discussed by the council, this report has been prepared and
I am honored to present it to His Excellency the President of the Republic
on behalf of the council.
It is hoped that your excellency will examine the report and decide the recom-
mendations that your excellency deems fit in this regard.
Central Supervisor of the Specialized National
Councils
Muhammad 'abd-al-Qadir Hatim
Table of Contents ~
~
Page ~ -
- i
Topic '
General Review 11 ~
Chapter One
- Electronic Products and Technology:
- Movement of Electronic Production Development 29 -
Modern Technological Depth of Electronics 35
Details of International Inclinations in Electronic Industries 37 -
Estimate of Investments in Electronic Equipment in Egypt in 46
the Year 2000 ,
Chapter Zfao
Electron~c Industry in Egypt:
- Beginning of Electronic Industry in Egypt 51 -
Technical Evaluation of Electronic Equipment Industry in Egypt 54
Electronic Industry Companies in Egypt 61
Chapter Three
Industrial Electronics:
Manufacturing of Electronic Equipment in Atomic Energy Authority 91
Electronic Industry Connected With Co~unication Equipment 96
2
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Chapter Four
Military Electronic Industries:
Goals of Military Electronic Industries 111
Components of Military Electronic Industriea 114
Military Electrbnic Industry in Egypt 117
~ Ctlapter Five
Training and Research in Electronic Industries:
Training in Sphere of E].ectronic Industries 123
Role of Scientific Res~:arch in Bolstering Electronic Industries 129
Research and Training Centers 140
Recommendations 151
Industrial Production Branch 157
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GENERAL REVIEW
This report includes five chapters that deal with the various aspects of
the modern electronic industries in the countries that have achieved the -
peak of international progress, as in the United States and Japan, and in
the existing Egyptian companies and with the rudimentary current position
of the electronic industries in Egypt--the means for assembling recreational I
electronic equipment [sicJ. The report also deals, in light of the varioub
[words droppedJ to correct its course and streamline its direction, to make -
it compatible with the rapid developments undergone by the electronic indus-
tries and the local market needs, in addition to the research centers of '
various levels, not onl~ in terms of developing the electronic industries
but also in tern?s of diversifying and improving the electronic products.
The ressarch and designing centers occupy a basic place in the production
of the electronic industries. The centers top the elements of competition
in t1~e electronic industries and this is why a special chapter has been
devoted to the electronic industries research centers in Egypt and to the
means to benefit from these centers in the plan to develop this industry.
The report also deals with the importance of training the second ranks of
the electronic industry leadershipe, namely the technical managers who
shoulder the task of creativity and innovation in designing the production
models. On the basis of the principles on which the Egyptian electronic
industries must be founded, the report recommends the creation of companies
for the production of industrial electronics, both for the purposes of pro-
ducing the various means of communication and for the purpoaes of producing
- Arabic computers. The report also deals with the expected picture of the -
production of military electrouics.
The current position of the electronic industry companies is considered
marginal--a poeition that has not entared the sphere of the elec.tronic in-
dustries yet. In terms of products, this position has not yet gone beyond
the production of television and radio sets for the local market. In terms
of industrial depth, the position is still in s rudimentary stage that lacks
designing and i~ovation, even though a auccessful plan was carried out be-
~tween 1960 and 1965 and led to starting the production of television models
manufactured largely from local components and parts. However, elements -
beyond the control of the companiea stopped this production and this depth
has declined to the minimal degree, despite the large production volume--
especially the production of television sets.
~
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The first chapter deals with the various sections of the international
electronic industry and with the extent to which electronic equipment has
_ permeated all aspects or life.
Even though the historical beginnings of this industry were in the sphere
of telecommunications, the industry gradually entered the individual's
public and private life and has become a mainstay of information by t ele-
vision and radio and an instrument of recreation, such as the video equip-
ment for recording both image and sound.
One of the basic fields of the electronic industries is the field of the
war industries which has extended to include the managenent of military
. defense operations. Radio and missile networks and air defense units all
rely on electronic communication equipment and on electronic computers.
Moreover, superiority in the air force has come to rely on sophisticated
electronic equipment capable of performing from within the aircraft all
the reconnaissance and missile-launching operations performed by the ground
networks.
Modern war has assumed a fundamental electronic quality. The large-s cale
use of electronic equipment has upened the opportunity for the use of space
for offensive war and for disrupting communications and reconnaissance, in
- addition to the fatal nuclear radiations discovered by man.
Electronics also play a major humane role. They ha~~e supplied doctors with
the means to look inside the body, with numerous means for radiological
diagnosis, with the means to bolster the senses, such as hearing [equipment]
and, shortly, with the means to make up for the loss of eyesight and even
with heart pacemakers.
Electronics also play a role in the transport movement, both by road and
by railroad. The latest inclination is the introduction in the future of
electronic devices to control car equipment and to regulate fuel combustion
and cooling through the use of a small electronic computer. There are other
details, many of which are covered by the first chapter.
Technology of Modern Electronics
The diversity and development of electronic production relies on a tech-
nology that has developed qualitatively in rapid succession. The elec tronic
equipment industry used to rely on basic electronic components or equipment
consisting of the production of various resistant units or capacitor units,
air coils [al-milaffat al-hawa'iyah] or coils with iron chests. The produc-
tion of electronic equipment from these components was achieved through the
use of the electronic valve as the basi~ for the electronic circuits. The
equipment produced was voluminous and placed in cheats that required venti-
lation and internal and external wire connections.
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~
_ Then a sudden development occurred--a development which started in World
War II--with the innovation of the trar~sistor that has led to develop-
ing the theories of electronic designs by replacing the valve. The produc-
tion of the basic electronic components has also developed in the direction
of small size.
With continued development, it became possible to include most of the basic
components and the transistor unit in a single cell. It then became pos-
sible to produce the electronic computer from several plates of semi-con-
- ductive materials assembled in a small box and carried in the pocket. The
production of these [pocket computers] has been based on the so-called tech-
nology of inerged cells.
The size of these computers developed further and became thinner and the
technology came to be known as the "multiple merged cells." With still
further development, the technology has come to be known as the "super-
multiple merged cells."
- i
The theory of manufact~ring these cells from semi-conductive materials, such !
as silicon, is considered the basis for constructing the required electric ~
circuit, whether for the purpose of making computation, for opening and ;
closing operations or for hundreds of other electronic operat~ons which
conatitute different stages in the various electronic computers which have
capabilities in accordance with certain criteria.
The nature of this industry [computer industry] is different from the elec-
- tronic industries, even though they all depend on utilizing the qualities
of [certain] materials. However, the electronics technology has developed
in the direction of: _
A shift toward the use of electronics inside semi-conductive mater~als in-
stead of confining the use to electrons released in vacuum within valves.
The use of surfaces with qualities different from those of the customary
resistant units, the use of density units instead of the previous condensers
and the use of conductive surfaces that merge the various elements within
the micronic dimensions, i.e. within one millionth of a meter.
This is the nature of the modern electronics technology. The inclination ~
of the electronics technology toward [the use of microns] must be stres~ed -
so that this use may extend to the various types of electronic production,
even though there are still some types of production, such as radio transmit-
ters, with a capacity exceeding (L.O.) that rely in their operation on the
electronic valve and the separste electronic components.
The second chapter reviews electronic production and its companies in Egypt
in the following manner:
Production and Future Needs:
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Electronic production in Egypt has been confined to consumer commodities.
The serious beginning started with the production of television sets, even
though it was preceded by the production of radio sets--especially the popu-
lar models. However, the production of television sets to meet the begin-
nings of the television service needs constitutes the industrial start that
depends on an acc eptable degree of investment and on knowledge of a sophis- _
ticated industry.
The volume of what has been produced since 1960 and what is expected to be
produced by 1980 amounts to 1,354,986 nillion television sets. The esti- -
mated average production in the 1977-80 plan amounts to 145,000 sets an-
nually.
A,tudy has been conducted to estimate the needs for television sets on the
basis of the spread of cultural and information awareness in its capacity
as the fundamental link resulting in the acquisition of television sets.
These future needs are estimated at an average that starts with 160,000
sets in 1977, rising to 286,000 in [year indistinct], to 400,000 sets in
1990 and to 736,000 sets in the year 2000.
This means that the total number of television sets that have to be produced
between 1978 and 1982 amounts to 1.7 million sets valued at 300 million
pounds on the bas is that 20 percent of the sets will be colored sets. The
number that information [sic] will require by the year 2000 will amount to
8.5 million television sets.
The value of the production of television sets may amount to 35 mill.ion
[Egyptian] pounds annually at the average, compared to 8 million pounds for
the 1976 production.
If the loss in production resulting from the idle capacities is to be cal-
culated, it is expected to amount to 8 million pounds annually.
Conditions of Electronic Production in Egypt:
Nearly 15 years have passed since the start of production in Egypt. How-
ever, this production is still at the same level with which it started.
Despite the leaps made in the methods of production at the international -
level, the Egyptian companies have continued to operate on the basis of
purchasing the electronic components, confining their industrial efforts
to the operation of assembling and quality control. It is evident from
the various chapters of the report that the integrated manufacturing of
electronic equipment must be carried out in four stages. The most important
in terms of the t echnical and economic impact are the stage of designing the
products, producing the prototypes and constructing the components either -
through direct contacts with industrial companies or through the production
of the special parts which constitute a distinctive section of the designing
outfit.
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This situation has led to developing the electronic equipment plants into
a market for dissembled television and radio parts supplied by foreign com-
panies at prices that obstruct competition and prevent the Egyptian com-
panies from standing on their own feet. This is why th2 companies suffer
from similar problems, the most important of which are:
1. Lower production than the actual production capacity due to the short-
- age of the production requirements consisting of component kits imported
in hard currency.
2. High costs of assembling that raise the co~t of the set, thus increas-
ing the added value to 43 percent instead of the usual 30 percent.
It must be noted here that the steps to develop the production of television
sets had reached in al-Nasr Television Company the point of producing nearly
70 percent of the components of each set. But the development was stopped
for reasons beyond the control of the companies and these companies resumed
the policy of importing component kits and closed their production units. '
However, they recently resumed the production of these components on agree- !
ment with a German company.
i
The general interest, both socially and economically, dictates preservation ~
of the existing production units that are represented in: -
1. A1-Nasr Television Company. I
- 2. The Arab Transistor Company.
3. The Electronic and Electrical Equipment [Company] (Philips). ;
4. The Banha Electronic Industries Campany. ~
An investment study conducted by the Industrial Sectors Industrialization
, Authority [title as given] recommends that the production of television sets
be con~ined to the Arab Transistor Company and the Philips Company and that
the plant for the production of television screens owned by al-Nasr Television ~
Company be closed. This recommendation relies on some e~onomic criteria con-
tained in the chapter on the production of consumer electronic equipment.
But the recommendation has not gone further to include a program to stream-
line or bolster this industry so as to eliminate the bottleneck this indus-
try is experiencing, namely confining the industrial operation to assembling
imported sets. This recommendation is remote from the industrial reform con-
nected with the Egyptian development plans.
The future defined by each company in the form of plans, though indicative ~
of the degree by which these companies have embarked on the development stage,
is not enough to deal with the problpm. The aspects of development are
summed up in the following:
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1. Establishing economic and industrial connections and coordination
_ among the existing companies. -
- 2. Speeding up the phase of terminating the importation of component kits
and proceE~ding with all the ~hases of manufacturing in reliance on the aid
agreements for full industrialization and on the efforts that can be made
by the research centers, especially the Electronic Industries Research Cen-
ter. ~
3. Devoting attention to the creation of middle-level technical leaderships
with the abiliCies needed to take charge of the responsibility of designing
- and innovating in the sphere of the production of consumer electronic equip-
_ ment .
The third chapter deals with the industrial electronics in the sphere of: -
1. Producing telephone centrals and telephone communication equipment.
The Egyptian Company for the Telephone Equipment Industry was created in
1962 and started its production which cunsisted of:
First, public crossbar-type centrals and private centrals.
Second, telephone equipment.
The Egyptian Company relies on an agreement with the Swedish Ericson Company _
for technical aid. Its central and telephone equipment production capacity
is determined in the light of the needs of the Communications organization
[probably referring to the Arab Republic of Egypt Telecommunications Organi-
zation] which have been estimated at 30,000 lines for the public centrals,
10,000 lines for private czntrals and 70,000 telephone sets. The rate of
local manufacturing of the various products is estimated at the following:
Nearly 65 percent of the total value of the public centrals.
Nearly 60 percent of the total value of private centrals.
Nearly 84 percent of the total value of telephone sets.
The industrial depth achieved by the company indicates that it has followed
a sound course in terms of national industrialization. However, the com-
pany's average [annual] production throughout the years of its existence
has ar~ounted to only 9,000 lines for public centrals. Moreover, the company
has also suffered from the fact that the [telecommunications] authority has
failed to pull out the company`s production immediately or to pay its value
at the right time. This indicates that a degree of the difficulties that
have led to the deterioration of the telephone utility has been reflected
on the company.
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- On the other hand, the company was recei�~ing the i:echnical information
_ necessary for development and improvement from the Swedish Ericson Company
but the unavailability of investments did not helg it to introduce the im- ~
provenents. This has led to the continued production of the old-type Cross-
bar centrals and has made it impossible to export this type of centrals to
many neighboring countries.
2. Embarking on the production of Electronic Centrals [telephone exchanges]:
Enorm~us developments have been witnessed in the pro~iuction of communication
networks and these developments underline two directions in the production
of equipment:
J
First, a shift from the system of automatic t~lephone communications to the
_ use of equipment based en electrenic inventions and on control that 1 eads to n
selecting the wanted subscriber by computers. ,
~
Second, external communication between subscribers to the automatic telephone I
exchange and the public centrals will use a cable network smaller than that
used presently, thus leading to the inclusion of numerous telephone communi-
cations (subscribersj in one telephone channel. Therefore, there will be a I
dire need for the production of multiplex equipment [aj hizat al-tadmin] in ~
the efforts to develop telephone communications generally.
_ An estimate of needed the telephone lii:es indicates that the number will rise
from the 150,000 lines needed in current years to 250,000 lines in 1984 and
to nearly 300,000 thousand lines 3nnually by the end of this century.
The need for telex equipment will also increase to reach 10,G00 machines by
1980. We must also take into our account that the networks to transmit the
information needed for perform.ing public services or for cannecting numerous
utilities raise the value of the various types of communication equipment
that has to be produced. This value has been estimated in the telecommuni-
cations chapter at the equivalent of 250 million dollars annually. This
figure calls for:
First, developing gradually the current type oi centrals produced into the
r.ew electronic types and raising the production capacity so that it may
meet the local needs.
Second, beginning a new industry to produce the various types of electronic
communication equipm~nt needed for the communication networks outside the
centrals. _
3. Arabic-Language Electronic Brains and Computers:
The chapter concerning industrial electronics deals with--in addition to
- entering the field of the communication equipment industry--the production
of electronic brains and computers, especially Arabic-language computers, ~
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especially Arabic-language computers, to meet the general development re-
quirements that have been and will continue to be faced by the Arab coun-
tries.
General development or civilizational growth depends on the use of electronic -
brains in endless spheres of life. The future indicates large-scale growth
in the use of small-size electronic brains. The production of such equipment
for daily use in home life is almost realized. There are even indications
that the car industry will resort to such electronic brains to contro~. car
operation and to meet the increased need for the economical consumption of
fuel.
The use of electronic computers and brains in fundamental spheres has been
delayed in the Arab countries because of the dire need for brains that write
and store data in Arabic.
_ The chapter concerning this issue contains details of the technological
progress in accordance with which electronic computers and teleprinters and
similar telegraph equipment has been adapted to use Arabic ar~d details on
how Arabic is more suitable for such use.
This is why the feasibility of the plan to produce Arab-language electronic
: computers and brains is proven by a mere examination of the requirements of
_ civilizational progress in the Arab countries.
The fourth chapter of the report deals with the military electronic indus- -
tries in the following manner:
1. The goals of the military electronic industry:
This industry seeks to produce the electronic equipment and systems neces-
sary for the military hardware used by the various branches of the armed
forces (the army, the air force, the air defense, the naval forces and -
_ reconnaissance).
These systems and equipment are so numerous and cover all spheres and branches
of the electronic sciences. The most important types of electronic equip-
ment are summed up in the following:
- Equipment for radio communicarions and data transmission over various wave
lengths.
All types of radar equipment. .
Various kinds of missile guidance and control equipment (surface-to-surface,
surface-to-air, air-to-air).
Navigation equipment for military aircraft.
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Electronic jamming and electrcaic counter measures.
Electronic monitoring and direction finding equipment.
Night vision equipment.
(Heat-seeking) electronic heads and other equipment.
These types of equipment are divided according to the nature of their use.
There is ground equipment, equipment filled into aircraft, missiles or ships.
Special position of military electronics industry in Eygpt:
Egypt waged in 1967 and 1973 wars whose main feature was that of an electronic
war. This made it necessary to enter the sphere of producing the equipment
for this war, especially since acquirin~ such equipment from foreign sources
has become subject to political relations and since it is very expensive. ;
- The production of military electronics requires industrial precision and a ~
quality standard higher than that of any other electronic product. This is -
why the units for this production are considered a factor for raising the
quality standard of the production of civil electronics.
I
Military Electronics and Banha Electronic Industry Company: ~
The plan to produce modern electronics started with the creation of the Banha ~
Electronic Industries Compzny. Even though the company was founded on this
_ basis, it turned in its early stages toward civilian production consisting ;
- of recreational equipment. It then started to produce some communication '
equipment for the armed forces. Therefore, the company should be provided i
with all the components of military electronic production, whether in terms
of equipment or in terms of personnel, on a firm and scientific basis of co- ~
operation with foreign sides that are advanced in this sphere of production. -
_ Such cooperation must be stipulated in all the contracts for the importation '
of weapons for the armed forces. '
A1-Nasr Television Company started as of 1967 to assemble some types of mili- ,
tary communication equipment and is still specialized in the production of
some of these types.
In the fifth chapter, the report reviews research and training in the elec-
tronic industries and provides a description of the applied and basic research
centers, explaining the positive and the negative aspects. The applied re-
search centers are characterized by having good laboratory equipment while
lacking researchers and skilled labor due to the migration of workers either
to the Arab countries or to other work sectors.
There should be a special cadre for the applied research similar to the cadre
of the universitieis, taking applied research into consideration at time of
promotion. The basic research centers are characterized by having well-pre-
pared scientific persons while lacking proper laboratory equipment.
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'['l~e report also explains the current spheres of work of each of the applied
and basic research centers and points out that the basic research centers
focus on theoretical research theses and that the researchers conducting
such studies are selected according to their scientific qualifications.
The report stresses the importance of coordinating the work of the various
applied and basic research centers, pointing out the distinguishing fea-
tures of each of them. The report also explains the distribution of work
among the research centers under the control of the service sectors and the
research centers and units under industry's control.
The report also discusses the importance of training and of giving [colle~e]
graduates the largest degree of knowledge with modern developments, of under-
lining scientific knowledge, of providing laboratories, of conducting experi-
ments, of kindling interest in electronics and a spirit of scientific compe-
tition as of childhood and of preparing the electronic parts market to make
it compatible with these goals.
Kindling an interest requires organizing the hobby of amateur radio operation
_ and forming scientific societies in schools and universities.
:
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1
CHAPTER ONE: ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS AND TECHNOLOGY -
Estimate of Investments in Electronic Equipment in Egypt by Year 2000:
An estimate of investments in electronic equipment in Egypt in the year ~
1985 can be built on the basis of the international population average.
The estimate of these investments in the year 2000 can be based on quad-
rupling the investments in a period of 15 years. _
The international investment in 1985 will amount to 200 billion dollars, as ~
already stated. Earth's population in that year will amount to nearly 4.5 j
billion people, at an average growth rate of 2.5 percent. If Egypt's popu- ~
lation in 1985 is estimated at 43.5 million people ~at the said growth rate), _
then the investments are estimated at nearly 200 x 3�5 or the equivalent
~
of nearly 2 billion dollars (equal to about 750 million Egyptian pounds at
the official exchange rate). In the year 2000, these investments will rise
to 3 billion pounds.
If it is estimated that the local plants will produce only 25 percent of the
electronic equipment in the republic in 1985 and 75 percent of this equip-
ment in the year 2000, then the value of investments in electronic equipment I
will amount to nearly 200 million Egyptian pounds in 1985 and 2,225 million
Egyptian pounds in the year 2000.
Estimate of Investment for Electronic Components in Egypt in 1985 and in the
Year 2000:
The same method of estimate followed in the preceding part can be foll.owed
here. Therefore, the e timate of investments i?� electronic components
amounts to nearly 45 X~3�5 of nearly 450 million dollars (the equi~alent
_ of nearly 170 million E~$Qian pounds) in 1985 and nearly 700 million
Egyptian pounds in the year 2000. -
~
Investments in electronic components i::=.~3ustry will amount to nearly 50 mil-
_ lion Egyptian pounds in 1985 and 500 million pounds in the year 2000.
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CHAPTER TWO: ELECTRONICS IIVDUSTRY IN EGYPT
Beginning of Electronics Industry in Egypt:
Tangible electronic production Egypt started with the production of tele-
vision sets when it was decided to introduce the television service to the -
new regions of the United Arab Republic at the time. As a basis for the
growth of this service, it was decided that it was necessary to manufacture
~ television sets locally. This production started in al-Nasr Company in
stages which took 4 years. The rate of [local] manufacturing of the sets
amounted in 1964 to nearly 75 percent of the components of the television
set. This industry was coupled with units for the production of various
parts of the set, namely:
l. Units for the production of electronic components such as the channel
selector, the loudspeaker, the transformers and the various coils.
2. A plant for the production of compressed wood cabins and polyester paint.
3. A plant for the production of screens. -
4. A plant for the production of instruments for cutting and molding metals
by pressure.
It was hoped that the policy of real industrialization in this plant would
advance to the point where the plant would produce completely various models
of television sets. The plant did actually reach at an early stage, in 1965,
the point of producing a transistor television, thus scoring progress that
had not been made by many of the major international factories yet.
The experiment of introducing the electronic industries started in a scien-
tific and alert manner through al-Nasr Television Company which was controlled
at the time by the culture and information sector. This experiment, which
lasted only 5 years, made it possible to provide training and experience to
a vast generation of engineers and skilled workers. The experiment was even
tantamount to opening the door for the first time for the Egyptian women
graduating from high school to work in an industrial craft compatible with
her nature--a craft in which she achieved considerable success.
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The experiment of manufacturing television sets by an industrial company
was tied to a naticnal direction embadied in enabling this industry to
take into account the conditions of the television service in the country
so that its costs may not constitute a burden to the state, whether in terms -
of the expenses of transmission and of program production or in terms of
the expenses of receiving this service in homes, uy producing television set~
affordable by the Egyptian masses.
_ This is why the task of this indus~try ~,aas to make a profit capable of cover-
ing the costs of television transmisision and, at the same time, to produce -
receution sets sold at prices within the purchasing power of the ma~ority
_ of the Egyptian people. The experiment succeedEd in securing a television
service that lasted for a period of time, realized economic independence and
did not saddle the state with the burdens of financing it. The experiment
even led to a situation which will undoubtedly push this industry toward
progress and excellence under the impact of the direct economic link between
television sets and financing this service--a linkthat creates an interaction
- between the service product through the sale of larger numbers of sets and
the use of the profits from sales to improve the television service, thus i
creating constant progressive motion. ;
The television industry then followed the course that the authorities con- ,
cerned started implementing in the phase which started around 1965--namely
the course of reduced production and higher prices. This led to hampering
the Egyptian television industry because it forced the industrial capacities
achieved in an atmosphere of enthusiasm and security to go idle as a result
of the reduced production adopted by the state plans and of the restrictions
imposed by those plans--restrictions that made it impossible to acquire in
� an uninterrupted manner the raw materials or the basic parts needed for pro- -
duction.
; -
Comprehensive Picture of Electronic Equipment Industry in Egypt Since 1965:
The state's general plan has obstructed a sound industrial growth of the elec-
tronic industries. The situation in the various electronics plants reached
the point where production is concentrated in four major plants, namely:
A1-Nasr Television Company, Telemisr Company, Philips Company and Banha
Company. These companies focus on the production of consumer electronics,
the most important being radio and television sets. The industrial dimension
has been confined to assembling these sets from imported kits because the
aforementioned causes have made it impossible to proceed with the plans for
industrial depth. Moreover, transactions and deals were confined to the
eastern bloc countries, with the exception of Philips Company. The nature
of the structure of the Philips Company requires it to obtain its needs from
the foreign [motherJ company with the capital, namely the Dutch Philips Com-
pany.
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(Words dropped] fully manufactured and tre kit, causing it to be consumed
by the costs of the production phase in accordance with the policy approved
on the basis of manufacturing the various electronic components, such as
resistors and capacitors, as a result of the change of the company's policy
toward the easy assembly production or as a result of the inability of the
equipment to keep up with the rapid development undergone by the electronic _
components industry.
Technical Evaluation of Electronic Equipment Industry in Egypt and Complete
_ Picture of Electronic Equipment Industry:
The manufacturing of the various electronic equipment, whether recreational
or for communication purposes, takes place in the following stages:
A. The industrial designing sections ~houlder the responsi`~ility of design-
ing equipment to perform various functions according to special computations.
The designing phase does not end at this point. Rather, prototypes for this
equipment have to be built in special prototype workshops and various experi-
ments and measurements have to be carried out to prove the compatibility of
the prototype produced with the specifications on whose basis the previous -
computations had been made.
B. Electronic equipment usually consists of basic components and of s~ecial
components. The basic electronic components are produced by specialized
factories and there is no need for these factories to belong to the electronic
equipment factories. As for the special components which are connected with -
- the type of the piece of equipment and the method of its design, these are
usually manufactured by the electronic equipment plants themselves. Conse- -
quently, the phase following th.e prototype production phase is that of im-
porting the basic components from the specialized plants and of arranging
for the production of the special components in the plant which has the
right and the concession to manufacture the piece of equipment to be pro-
duced.
C. The third phase of production is to arrange for productiQn lines prepared
to synchronize with the phases of assembling the equipment from the basic and
special components already supplied with a regularity compatible with the
production program.
D. The fourth and final phase is the phase of quality control, reliability,
durability and other specific limits set to determine the suitability of the
equipment--a suitability connected with the type and place in which the equip-
ment is used and the purpose for which it is used.
These four stages constitute the mainstays of the electronic equipment in-
dustry. Even though the four stages are integrated and have their impact on
the standard of the product, the first stage which pertains to designing and
building a prototype is considered a definite element in achieving success _
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and excellence by the various electronic equipment factories. Such excel-
lence and success depends on the ability and akill of the designers and
inv~entors of the various kinds of equipment. This class of industrial men
is considered a mainstay of the industrial depth. However, such capabili-
ties require superior education. What is more, such men gain their experi-
- ence in the various methods of designing from specialization and practical
, industrial experience achieved through their work in the basic units of the
electronic equipment industry. Companies consider the patents of the equip-
ment produced an industrial right and a secret that is not given away with-
out a contract and in return for the payment of rewarding suma of money. The
_ industrial companies often decline to provide training on design work and
refuse to let trainees into these sections.
The comF~anies devote attention to attracting the skills capable of carrying
out the task of production designing. A company does not keep the prototypes
and specifications of the equipment it produces for more than one year, espe-
cially in the sphere of the consumer electronics.
The task of the designing sections also includes developing the equipment
and making various modifications that lead to the performance of new services,
to easier use and control, to higher performance efficiency, to higher effi- ~
ciency ia electricity consumption, to longer durability of the electronic
- components and to lower costs. '
Method of Creation of Electronic Industries:
A developing electronic industry starts usually with the conclusion of agree-
ments for the transfer of industrial knowledge. The equipment-producing com-
panies refuse to have the transfer include the knowledge pertaining to the
first [designing] stage. They usually agree to transfer the knowledge be-
ginning wi.th the third stage under which the component kits needed for the
producti~~n of the piece of equipment are supplied. This means that the rights
to know-how that are usually established through industrial agreements always
take into consideration the interests of the original industrial company.
These agreements withhold the rights to know-how that lead to technical or
economic competition. The technical competition lies in the first stage,
namely the stage of industrial designing, and economic competition is based
on the second and third stages. As long as the [mother] company is the sup-
plier of the component kits that will be assembled, it usually makes allow-
ances for a margin of costs consisting of the difference between the price
of the fully manufactured piece of equipment and the cost of the component
kit--a margin usually consumed by the costs of the third stage in which the
kits are assembled into complete sets on the production lines. The [mother]
company confines the know-l?ow right that it sells to the new company to ~ust
this stage of production. Thus, the sale price of the product assembled on
the production lines of the new company has to be higher than the costs of
the same product manufactured by the industrial company with the concession
- to produce the original piece of equipment. The mbther company thus makes
sure that it will face no competition in foreign markets.
,
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Course of Electronic Companies in Egypt:
The electronic equipment industry in Egypt embarked on this stage by pro-
ducing assembled recreational equipment and some types of communication
equipment introduced recently.
- Contracts were concluded for the transfer of the know-how concerning the
assembling of television and radio sets with numerous international industrial
companies i,n the east, the west, Japan and the United States. The same
Egyptian company has vacillated between numerous foreign companies and has
not kept its industrial relationship with a single company for a long and use-
- ful time that makes it possible to establish a firm relationship that creates
a kind of trust and subsequently leads to the full transfer of the various
- stages of the industrial know-how. This happened to al-Nasr Television Com-
pany in its first production period between 1960 and 1965. The agreement it
concluded with the American firm did not deal with the aforementioned condi-
tions wherein lies the fear of competition between the uriginal company and
the competing [new] company. Neither Egypt nor the Arab countries were among
the markets of the said American firm. Moreover, the agieement lasted for
� 5 years during which al-Nasr Television Company moved to the second stage of
the industry, namely, the stage of arranging directly for its needs of the
special electronic components. This was done with the assistance of the
- original firm which supplied all the equipment necessary for this stage, thus
leading [al-Nasr's] industrial depth to reach 75 percent of all the indus-
trial stages.
A1-Nasr Company also began to establish a section for design and development
relying on Egyptian skills. The elements of the electronic equipment indus-
- try had been expected to be completed within a short period, were it not for
the setback suffered by this company--a setback that buried those efforts.
The electronic equipment industry companies were given full protection based
on banning the importation of recreational electronic equipment. This pro-
tection did not lead to any industrial progress in the stage of assemblin~
_ sets from the imported component kits. The market for this kind of sets de-
clined as a result of the restrictions imposed on importing the components
from any country other than the agreement countries.
Production of Some Communication Equipment:
The policy of reduced production of the recreational equipment gave some
companies the cause to turn to the production of some types of coum?unication
equipment for the armed forces, following the same method of complete com-
p~nent kits and of confining the efforts to the process of assembling on the
production line.
As a result of this inclination, some of the following types of equipment
were assembled [locally]:
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A. Walkie talkies for the armed forces.
B. Landline carriers for the armed forces.
C. Some types of loudspeaker equipment.
Open-Door Policy and Its Impact on Electronic Industries:
As a result of the open-door policy and of the accompanying facilities
given for the acquisition of hard currency by way of the collateral market
or by way of importation without currency conversion, the trade of importing
foreign-made electronic equipment started for the first time after a long
period. Even though the state has imposed high customs fees on such importa-
- tion with the aim of protect{ng the locally assembled production, the elec-
tronic equipment industry companies have begun to feel some sort of compe-
tition from the imported equipment, especially equipment imported from Japan-
ese factories. Even though the imported models were produced locally, the
difference [presumably in price] between the local product and the similar
imported product has not been sufficient to give preference to the local pro- ~
duction.
The customs fees have been raised to nearly 250 percent and this must in- I
evitably provide high customs protection. This is in addition to imposing I
the incentive price for hard currency. This has, naturally, enhanced the ~
ability of the local industry to face the imported equipment--that is if it
is imported officially. This ability is evident in the vast difference in
the price of the colored television sets produced by the local factories and
the price of those imported from abroad.
This protection that has been given to the local production has not led to
enhancing the industrial depth of the electronic equipment. On the contrary,
the electronics companies have taken advantage of th~ protection to reduce ~
the local manufacturing process which started with the importation of elec-
tronic component kits [and assembling them locally] to the importation of
semi-manufactured sets which have led to higher profitability as a result of:
1. Reduced assembling costs and increased profitability.
2. Increased production creating the conditions compatible with the elements
of disbursing top incentive rewards to the workers of these companies.
Consequently, a kind of superficial industry has started in some of the
electronic equipment companies that supply foreign products which they
import semi-manufactured so as to avoid paying the high customs duties and
to take advantage of the high profit margin cansisting of the difference be-
tween the cost of the importation of a fully-manufactured set and paying the
high customs fees and the cost of importing a semi-manufactured set at very
small customs fees and assembling it at a small cost on the company's produc-
tion line.
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- Evaluation of Position of Electronic Industry Companies:
A. All the factories suffer from surplus groduction capacity and weak pro-
ductivity. The reasons are due to meager hard currency allocations for the
importation of components. This has caused the industry to be unable to
meet the local needs and has created a black market for both imported and
local equipment.
B. Even with providing the hard currency allocations needed, some produc- -
tion capacities will remain idle as a result of the future expansion plans
and of the fact that these capacities exceed the local needs.
C. The low quality wjll deny the local production the ability to compete.
It also encourages importation. When the high assembling cost is added, the
inability to export to the free markets, such as Saudi Arabia and others,
becomes obvious.
The attached list demonstrates the production volume, the value of labor
and the added value and shows that the total loss in the added value at the
national Ievel is as follows:
. Al-Nasr Electronic Equipment Company 2,170,000 pounds
_ The Arab Radio and Transistor Company 2,170,000 pounds
A1-Nasr Television and Electronic Equipment Company 3,250,000 pounds
_ Banha Electronic Industries Company 397,000 pounds
_ Grand Total 8,837,~00 pounds
This means that the total loss in the added value amounts to 8,377,000 pounds
annually [figures as published].
Electronic Industry Companies in Egypt:
Banha Electronic Industries Company: It is located in the town of Banha
[al-Qalyubiyah Governorate] on the Cairo-Alexandria Agricultural Road and
is built on an area of 120,000 square meters. The area of the main build-
ing which includes the workshops and the production halls is nearly 40,000
square meters. Attached to the main building is the multi-story building
which contains the research and development laboratories and the designing,
industrial enginearing, testing and quality control sections.
The original project was implemented by the Czech Tesla Company within the -
framework of the Soviet [sic]-Egyptian cooperation at the time.
The original project includes the production of the following equipment:
A. A total of 40,000 television sets annually.
B. A total of 100,000 home receiving sets annually.
C. A total of 2,Q00 special transmission and receiving sets for military
purposes.
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The final stages of production included the production of electronic parts,
valves and transistor s sufficient to meet the need of high [the need of the
existing] sets, in addition to the production of coils, transformers, mech-
- anical and ptastic parts and printed circuits.
All the equipment necessary for these workshops, iucluding a workshop for
the production of the special instruments needed for quantitiative production
and the workshop for electrical painting, has been dAlivered.
- The plan also included equipping the multi-story building with the labora-
tories needed for technical control of the electronic parts, the industrial
engineering laboratories for operating the components and the parts [sic],
the equipment and the chemical laboratories needed to test the raw materials
and the solutions, to conduct material research and to replace the raw ma-
. terials in the future, and the measurement laboratories. With the start of
construction, the project also devoted attention to building the electronic
equipment designing sections so as to encourage local designs.
The electronic parts which the pro,ject was prepared to produce are: j
,
A: ~
i
1. Carbon resistors.
2. Cable resistors.
3. Variable resistors.
B:
1. Ceramic capacitors.
2. Mika capacitors
3. Chemical capacitors.
4. Paper capacitors.
This is in addition to the valves and the transistors to which we have al-
ready referred. The thought given to establishing this project accompanied
the comprehensive industrialization movement in the Egyptian republic in the
late 1950's and early 1960's. One of the most impoxt.ant goals of this move-
ment was to provide full employment. This is why the pro~ect's prevalent
pattern was to use as much labor as possible. This was evident in the method
of the production of electronic parts.
_ The implementation of the pro~ect was postponed for several reasons and the
company did not start producing electronic parts until the beginning of 1969,
valves until 1970 and transistors until 1971. -
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~
The project's connection with the eastern bloc had its ma,jor impact on
curtailing the Banha Company's share of local marke~ sales, whether in terms
of home receiving equipment or in :erms of television sets. This small share
resulted From the connection of the other companies-~-al-Nasr, Telemisr and
Philips--with the western companies at the time. This was the cause of the
company's poor economic position at the outset of its foundation, not to
mention tha psychological impact and the tension that afflicted the manage-
- ment.
Therefore, perhaps the company will not proceed to the industrial stages that
require greater local technical effort needed by this type of products. -
After completion of the special equipment in 1970, the comp any started to
produce special electronic equipment, beginning with a receiver-transmitter
[walkie talkie] for military use on a special license given within the frame- _
work of the aforementioned ~operation. Contrary to what happened in regard
to the home r.eceiving sets and television sets, numerous factors acted to-
gether to enable tt,is specialized production to start more successfully.
This success had i*_~ impact on the voluntary and involuntary transformation
in the thought and efforts concerning the production of special electronic
equipment, especially since this kind of production is distinguished by the
high degree of technology it contains, a fact which stirred the ambitions -
of the company's engineering teams. This fact also led to better economics
in comparison to the home equipment production which contains a small degree
of technology that does not produce profitable economics through voluminous
production [sic]. Thus, local participation in the product ion of.special
electronic equipment increased and the demands of the sides production of
special electronic equipment increased and the demands of the sides using
- such equipment also increased as a result of their conf idence in the quality -
of the local products.
_ Almost at the same time (1970), the efforts of the company's designing sec-
tions started to become evident and a contract was concluded for the pro-
duction of a mine detector which was designed by these sections.
With the company's escalated efforts in the sphere of special electronic
- equipment, it was deemed necessary to bolster the industrial components
compatible with this sphere with its diverse products and relatively small
volume. To complete these components, two new workshops were cons~ructed:
One for the manufacturing high-precision metal frames and the second for
the production of super-quality printed circuits which give the l~cal designer
the flexibility to produce unpatterned and various equipment with the pre- -
cision required for the special electronic products.
- The company's first production line was thus set to produce transmission
and receiving equipment manufactured on foreign license. The company will
bolster this direction after completing the local industrial components by
way o f : _
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1. Increasing local participation by producing most of the unpatented [al-
shayr namatiyah] parts for the products manufactured on a fQreign license,
� in addition to assembly and testing work.
2. Initiating the stage of imitation [sic], along with the development re-
quired for the planning and industrial engineering outfits, the training re-
quired for the designing cadres and the improvement required in the company's
economics. Only the patented components will be imported, without any pay-
ment for the imported design and technology.
3. Local designs for the transmission and receiving equipment expected to
- be developed by local capabilities either through imitation or through pro-
viding the opportunity for training on design and development work in foreign
_ companies.
The company's designing sections have selected the first production sample
for an electronic central (with a capacity for 100 subscribers). This cen-
tral has been tested successfully. Its design has been fully developed lo- ~
cally by the company's designing sections. A contract has been concluded '
for the production of this central. This product represents the company's i'
second production line for the foreseeable demand volume. Since 1970 and
until the present, the designing sections have presented numerous designs i-
for military use. Contracts for the designs were concluded and they have
been produced. The company's experience has actually developed through local
designing efforts to the degree that it can be said that the structure of
_ the company's special electronic equipment has improved considerably.
Electronic vision equipment will represent the third production line. The
company is about to conclude contracts to proceed in this sghere on a foreign
license.
Th~ efforts in these lines are focused on either horizontal expansion by com- -
pleting the production processes and systems or on veritcal expansion by
bolstering the [company's] presence and by making local engineering additions
with the company's ever-growi.ng experience in the spheres of technological ~
research on operation processes and methods and of designing and developing
new products. With the increasing demand for these types of special equip-
ment, the company may decide in the future to terminate its production of _
_ home electronic equipment.
With this strategy, it is obvious that dependence on local engineering
thinking is escalating. Therefore, it is necessary to draw up clear poli-
?~~l~ cies, supported by the state, in the spheres o~ training and research. To
achieve these goals, the company must be supported with reinforced training
plans and with budgets that bolster research, development and the policies
of incentives for the workers employed in this sphere.
A1-Nasr Television Company:
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The company has passed through several phases in its industrial activity.
Following are the phases of its development:
1. On the revolution's eighth anniversary in July 1960, which was also the
date of the start of television transmiasion, the company imported 125,521
fully manufactured television sets of various dimensions and moc~els and mar-
keted them, providing the maintenance work.
2. In 1962, the company adj usted its program and started local production
by importing some dissembled components and assembling them locally.
3. In 1965, the company embarked on the phase of local industrialization. -
It concluded a contract with an American firm to import raw mat2rials. Indus-
trialization developed to the point where it reached 70 percent of the various
parts of the television set, except for the basic electronic components.
4. In the wake of the 1967 war, the company's production was affected severely
and the company turned to the eastern bloc countries. As a result, the quality
of its production dropped. Moreover, the rate of [local] industrialization
also dropped. This situation continued until 1975 when the company resumed
its transactions with the western sector.
S. The planned production rates amounted to nearly 50,000 sets annually,
even though this figure can be doubled. The reason [for not doubling it] is
the difficulty to marketing due to the relatively high prices and to the
availab ility of television sets imported from abr.oad by the private sector
or by people returning from official missions abroad (the number of sets im-
ported in this manner ranges from 20,000 to 30,000 sets annually).
6. The company's total production in white and black television sets from -
the ti.me of its foundation until 1977 amounted to nearly 600,000 sets.
7. The company has produced numerous types of multi-purpose electronic
equipment for both military and civilian use, such as transmission and re-
ceiving equipment (for the armed forces), carrier wave-carrier equipment,
electronic computers, loudspeakers, [power] tension regulators, sirens and
_ other types of equipment.
The following chart sheds light on a part of the company's effort in the
- sphere of civilian and military production: _
25
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Year Value of Military Production Value of Civilian Production
1969 36 3,437
1970 204 4,205
1971 840 from 1 July 1970 . 3,130
~ 19~2 to 30 June 1971
1,098 from 1 July 1971 5,495
to 31 December 1972
1973 710 2 680
1974 961 4,093
y 1975 1,380 3,969
- 1976 1,064 4,996
[IJo specifications or units given insofar as figures are concerned.]
8. The production of colored sets started in 1977. As a first stage, semi-
assembled components were imported and assembled locally and teats were made
on them. The total production is estimated at 7,000 television sets. ~
i
9. The company possesses both human and technical capabilities that can be ~
exploited (by setting up 13 plants for different types of products) in the ~
i:~terest of electronic production for local consumption or for exportation. ~
~
The Arab Transistor Radio and Electronic Equipment Company: ~
The Arab Transistor Radio and Electronic Equipment Company was founded at
the end of 1966 through the merger of three plants:
1. The plant of the Arab Transistor Radio and Electronic Equipment (Telemisr)
Company in Ismailia for assembling radio and television sets.
2. The plant of Egypt's Electro-Engineering (MICO) Company which used to
belong to al-Nasr Electrical and Electronic Equipment Company (Philips) and
which used to assemble radio sets.
3. A1-Haram Plant which used to belong to ~he Egyptian Transistor and Elec-
tricity Company that used to assemble radio sets and to produce chokes and
(knuckle pipes).
4. The administration of the projects controlled by the Egyptian Transistor
and Electricity Company.
In 1968, all these plants were moved to the company's present site and pro-
duction started with a value of 1.5 million pounds.
In 1974, the projects administration was separated from the rest and the
Industrial Installations and Service Company was set up. The workers of
the Ismailia plants returned their previous plant where the production of
television sets started.
' 26
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The company introduced expansions represented in establishing a line for
[the production of knuckle] pipes and a plant for the production of home -
elt~ctrical appliances. .
In 1977, the value of the company's production amounted to 9 million Egyptian
pounds and included 115,000 radio sets and 65,000 television sets. The num-
ber of the company's workers amounted to 1,500 workers distributed between
Cairo and Alexandria.
The company also added new activities, including [the production] of radio
cassettes, car cassettes and loudspeakers and has concluded contracts for
the production of colored televisions and stereo equipment.
Most of the company's activities have been characterized by assembly alone
because of the difficulty which locally manufactured production faces in
competing with the imported production and also because of the difficulty of
acquiring the raw ma.terials necessary for this production.
To develop the production and to gain international experience, there is a
plan to set up a joint project with the Japanese N.E.C. Company for the pro-
duction and manufacturing of black and white and colored television, in addi-
tion to other electronic equipment, at the company's plants in Ismailia.
Philips Company:
The international Philips Company owns 50 percent of this firm and the -
Egyptian government owns the rest. .
The company has produced 24-inch television sets from components imported
from the Dutch Philips Company. _
The company's production capacity amounts to 60,000 sets annually, of which
only 5,350 sets can be marketed locally.
The company also produces electric bulbs.
Th.e electronic production needed for the plans to develop the radio and
television [services] until the year 2000:
Man's use of electronic equipment in his daily life have become a charac-
teristic of the age in which we live. This use is increasing constantly
because of their connection with civilizational progress.
The consumer electronics are the industry connected with the electronic -
equipment Which man uses for informational or recreational purposes funda-
mentally. This equipment includes various kinds that can be divided into
the following:
27
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A. Sets to receive radio and television transmission.
B, Recording and replay equipment and storage [al-hifz] equipment.
C. Electronic musical instruments.
At these, computers are included with the consumer electronics industries.
However, we believe that listing computers within the electronic computer
industry is more realistic and more useful for the purpose of analysis.
1. General Plans Expected to Be Implemented:
- The main plan of the Radio and Television Union until the year 2000 can be
su~ned up as follows:
A. Spreading radio transmission over medium waves throughout all parts of
the Arab Republic of Egypt (nearly 5 programs).
B. Spreading radio transmission through frequency modulation [al-ta'dil
al-taraddudi] to carry musical programs to all parts of the republic. This
will be done by setting aside two channels in every television location [sic].
C. Spreading wh3te and black and colored television transmission through-
out the republic (more than two channels).
There are definite plans to increase the activity in the field of producing
_ audio-visual programs in both the public sector and private sector studios.
2. Analysis of Preceding Plans:
With the purpose of determining the future of the consumer electronics indus-
tries and on the basis of these plans, the types of sets and equipment needed
can be defined as follows: -
A. Radio receivers:
Medium and short wave receivers.
Frequency modulation [FM] receivers.
Stereo FM receivers (two channels).
Car receivers.
~
B. Television Sets:
White and black television sets.
Colored television sets.
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C. Recording and Replay Equipment:
Equipment to record and replay magnetic tapes (one channel). _
Equipment to record and replay magnetic tapes (two channels).
Record players--one channel.
Record players--two channels.
D. Recording and Replay Means:
Era ed and recorded tapes.
Recorded record discs.
E. Musical Instruments:
Evaluating the local market's quantitative demand for each one of these types
of instruments requires studying three basic factors: -
A. The increase in the number of sets in proportion to the population number
as a result of the risint~ individual income and of the ratP nf Qr]~tc?tiOn.
B. Increase in the number of sets because of the population;growth.
C. Making up for the consumed pieces of equipment continuously.
Four levels of the spread of this kind of equipment can be discerned:
A. The spread of the basic information apparatus, i.e., the sm~ll-size
radio.
B. The spread of the white and black television set. Even though this
apparatus is basic insofar as information is concerned, its spread is de-
termined by its price. The state must exert efforts to lower its price
with its ever-wider use.
C. The spread of equinment with special quality, such as colored television
sets, FM sets and the single-channel recording and replay equipment.
- D. The spread of equipment with very special quality, such as stereo equip-
ment, car radios and electronic instruments.
3. According to the preceding analysis based on the level of use, the
quantities nzeded of each kind of equipment can be determined as follows:
A. ~quipment with level A spread (small rad~.o sets):
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The current statistics indicate that there is one radio set for every 8
~ersons. It is expected that this ratio will amount to one set for every
3 persons in the year 2000. If we take into consideration that the average
~,c~~ra$~lity r1f~a radio set is 8 years, as well as the population growth, the
volume of th~ production required presently is 800,000 sets annually which
will rise to 2 million sets annually in the year 2000. If the average price
per set is 8 pounds, the value of the required number of such sets for the
local market amnunts to 6 million pounds annually at present and will amount
to 16 million pounds annually in the year 2000.
B. Equipment with second-level spread (white and black television sets):
The current statistics indicate that there is one white and black television
set for every (20) persons. This ratio is expected to rise in the year 2000
to one set for every S persons. If the average use of a set is 12 years,
and in view of the population growth, the volume required amounts to nearly
200,000 sets in 1978 and will rise to 800,000 sets in the year 2000. If the
average price per set is 100 pounds, then the value of the current production
amounts to 40 million pounds and will amount to 80 million pounds in the !
year 2000. i
C. Third-level spread equipment (recorders, colored television sets, and ~
FM equipment): ~
Recording equipment: The number of recorders can be calculated on the basis
of a rising percentage of the number of radios and also by computing on the
basis of the preceding percentages of ei~ht percent for 1978 and nearly 25
percent in the year 2000. Considering that the average price per recorder
is 30 pounds, the required number of recorders in 1978 amounted to 64,000
- sets with a value of nearly 2 million pounds. The value of the number
needed in the year 2000 will amount to 15 million pounds.
Colored television sets: The number of colored television sets can be cal-
culated on the basis of a rising percent~ge of the number of white and black
television sets, beginning with about eight percent in 1978 and reaching
' nearly 25 percent in the year 2000. Thus, the number of [colored] sets in
1978 will be 30,000 sets valued at nearly 9 million pounds. In the year
2000, the value of the colored sets is expected to reach nearly 60 million
pounds. .
FM sets: The use of ~hese sets will begin at a large scale in 1980. The
approximate value of this equipment in 1978 is small. In the year 2000, it
is estimated that this value will amount to 10 million pounds.
D. Spread of equipment with very special quality: The use of this equip-
ment will continue to be limited at the outset and there will be no big
demand for the equipment in the local market. The total value of the required
volume of this equipment can be calculated at nearly 10 percent the value
of the equipment with special quality, i.e., a value of nearly 2 million
pounds in 1978 and nearly 8 million pounds in the year 2000.
30 ~
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E. Recording and replay means: The needed volume of this equipment can be
- calculated on the basis of 15 tapes for every piece of equipment, thus bring-
ing the total number of tapes needed in 1978 to one million tapes valued at
nearly one miilion pounds and to 7.5 million tapea in the year 2000 valued
at nearly 8 million pounds.
The value of these tapes is almost doubled if the value of the recorded ma-
terial is added. Moreover, the possibilities of marketing abroad are increas-
ing by such a degree that makes the value of the volume required threefold
the estimated value.
As for recorded discs, the demand for them will drop as a result of the use
of tapes at a large scale. However, the production of recorded discs is ex-
~ pected to double by the year 2000.
Estimated Total Volume of Consumer Electronics Industries: Estimate of Value
of Required Volumes of These Industries:
Required in Required in
1978 (in Year 2000 (in
1,000 pounds) 1,000 pounds) ~
Radio Sets 6,000 16,000
Blar_k and White Television Sets 20,000 80,000
Colored Television Sets 9,000 60,000
_ Recording Equipment 2,000 15,000 _
FM Equipment 10,000
Recording and Replay Means 2,000 16,000
Very Special Equipment 2,000 8,000
Grand Total G1,000 205,000
Estimate of Rate of Spread of Television Sets and Future Needs Until Year
2000:
The estimates of the Ministry of Planning of the volume of television sets
produced and expected to be produced by 1980 are as follows:
Production volume in 1960-65 period: 182,513
1965-70 period: 244,195
1970-75 period: 266,312
1975-80 period: 661,966
Grand Total 1,354,986 sets
If we add to this locally produced volume the number of sets imported at the
start of the television service in 1960 and what has been imported through
various means since then, it can be said that the number of television sets
[in use] ranges between 1.5 million and 2 million sets.
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This volume eQuates with the proper level of education by nearly:
One hundred percent of those with high education, plus 75 percent of those
with middle ievel education [perhape 100 percent of those with high educa-
tion have television sets and 75 percent of those with middle-level education
have zelevision sets].
If the future needs for these sets are calculated, it becomes evident that
they will rise from 160,000 sets in 1977 to 286,000 sets in 1986.
The total number of television sets needed to be produced in the period from _
1978 to 1986 amounts to 1.7 million sets.
~
~
i
I
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