JPRS ID: 8750 USSR REPORT RESOURCES

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• Content Type: REPORTS

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~

S NOVEM6ER i9T9 CFOUO 2Sl79) i OF i
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JPRS L/8750
5 November 1979
_
IJSSR Re ort
_ p
RESOURCES
~ (FOUO 25/79)
Fg~$ FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
FOR OF~'iCiA~ USE OI~LY
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JPRS L/8750
5 November 1979
USSR REPORT
RESOURCES
(FOUO 25/79)
CONTENTS PAGE
FUEIS AND RELATED EQUIPMENT
Achievements and Prospects oi the Ukrainian Petroleum
Refining Industry
(N. L. Notsek; KHIMIYA I TEHI-INOZOGIYA TOPLIV
I MASEI,, Sep ';9) � 1
Petroleum Refining Electro-Desalination Units
(A. A. Kalinin, et al.; KHIMIyA I TEHI3NOLOGIYA
TOPLIV I MASEZ, Sep 79) 6
Evaluating Electric Desalination Installations
(A. P. Matiychenko; k~iIMIYA I TEKHNOLOGIYA TOPLIV
I MASEL, Sep 79) 11
F~uldamentals of Zong-Term Foracasting of the Number of
Proven Oil, Gas Reserves _
(N. I. Buyalov, et al.; SOVETSKAYA GEOLOGIYA, Aug 79) 16
Coal Mines in Ukraine Are More Mechanized, But Still
Underu~orked -
(V. A. Voronin; UGOL' UKRAINY, Aug ?9) 31 _
- a - [III - U5SR - 37 FOUO~ -
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FVII,sS AND RELATID DQUIPMIIdT
ACHIEVEM~VTS AND PR06PEGTS OF THE UKRAINIAN PETROLEUM REFJNING INDUSTRY
Moscow KHIMIYA I TIICHNOLOGIYA TQPLIV I MASII, in Russian No 9, Sep 79 PP 3-5
~Ar~icle by N. L. Nots~k, first deputy chief of the Ukrainian SSR
Gla.vneftekhimprom~
[Text~ The petrole~:m refining industry of the Ukrainian SSR holds one of
_ the leading places among the industries of the republic. Its products
motor and boiler fuels, bitumens, lubricating oils and greases, paxaffins
and other petroleum products greatly affect the tecnical progress and
development of the production forces of the republic. Tt,e development of
- the petroleum refining industry in the Ukraine was always given great at-
tention, but it acquired. special importance in the last decade as a result
of' the intensive development of the machine bt!ilding, transport, power
engineerino, agriculture and other industrial seetors.
= During that time~ the Kremenchug and Lisichansk NPZ [Petroleum refining
plant] were put in operation and the capacities of the Q~iessa, Kherson NPZ
and others were expa.nded. The avergae capacity of a petroleum refining
plant in the republic increased by 2.2 times compaxed to 1970. A special _
feature of the industry's development in the lOth Five-Year Plan period was
the accelerated increase in capacities for primaxy petroleum refining and
for secondary processes by building and putting in operation combined and
consolidated installations, as well as modernizing the existing ones.
In 4:980, the volume of petroleum refining will increase by 1.9 times com-
pared to 1975~ ~ the last three years the volume of petroleum refining
increased 1.5 times; the output of gasoline increased by 30~; diesel fuel
by 1.5 times and ~ils by 1.4 times. The high rates of increasing produc-
tion were achieved due to the higher productivity of labor. In 1976-1978,
this indicator increased. by 27.5~ for a plan target of 26.3~; for the five-
year plan period it is planned to increase the productivity of labor by
55�9~.
The putting in operation of new new plants, modernizing and expanding exis~-
ing facilities ma.de it po;sible to raise the technical standard of petro-
leum refining considerably. In the current five-year plan period, the
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basic industr-al production capital in the petroleum refining industry in-
creased by 8.4~, The ratio o~ its active part was 61.3~ by the end of 1978.
The capital-l~bor ratio increased by 20.5~ in the last 3 yeaxs and the power-
_ labor ratio by 1.5 times.
With the increase in the volur~e of petroleum refining~ the production of
basic types of petroleum products also increased considerably. Republic
enterprises produce over 130 kinds of oils, greases, and lubrication-�
cooling liquids which make up over 50% of the all-union assortment of such
produc~ts. Some 24~ kinds oi oils and greases axe exported to 27 foreign
countries. Ne~r lubricants developed in the last 10 yeaxs replaced about 100
imported products which ma.de it possible to supply domestic petroleum prod-
ucts -to the Volzhskiy, Ka,mskiy and Za,porozhskiy motor vehic?e plants, metal-
lurgical plants and ma.ny other enterprises in the country.
In spite of the rapid increase in the output of petroleum products in the -
repizbl~c~ the demand for them by their own production forces is not being
satisfied fullys for motor vehicle gasoline by 70~; diesel fuels by
78~; and fuel oils by 65~. To reduce the gap between the Froduction and
cor..aumption of petroleum products, it is nlanned to build, in the very near -
future, new cor?bined and consolidateci installations and to modernize existing
- petroleum refining en~erprises.
The most important achievement in tihis area is putting in operation the
ICremer~chug NPZ a cor~bined installa.tion with units for primar;~ petroleum
- refining, reforming of the gasolir.e fraction, hydxaulic purification of ~
diesel fuel an.d gas-fractionation. Compared to individual ir.stallations of
similar capacities, its operation reduces capital investments by 4j~,
_ expenditures for rEfining petroleum by 25~ and increases the productivity
~ of labor by 1.5 times. The y',OU [Electric desalination unit~ -AVT-6 at the
Lisichansk NPZ was paxtially modernized in accordance with the reequipment
plan which made it possible to increase ihe capacity of this plant. At the
Kherson NPZ, the AVT-2 installation was mod.erni~ed; as a result quality was
i;nnroved and the yield of light petroleum products was increased.
A-t the Berdyansk C%1MZ [expansion t:,nImown~, a shop was put in operation for
producing lithium 12-oxystearate used for making high efficiency lithium
lubricants for the motor vehicle industry (Litol-29, Fiol-1, Fiol-2, Fiol-3).
- At the L'vov NPZ, modernization of an installa,tion was completed for making
the AKVOL-3 self-emulsifying oil for mechanized mine supports in coal mines.
The intensifica'cion of technological processes is receiving great attention.
, Thus, in the Kremenchug NPZ, the catalytic cracking installation was changed
over to a zeolite-containing catalyst which made it possible to increase the ~
eificiency of -this unit by incrPasing the yield of high octane gasoline.
Production of raw ma,terials was organized for industrial caxbon at catalytic
cracking units.
' The increase in the product3.on of petroleum prod.ucts is accompanied. by an in-
crease in its quality which brings it up to the level of the best domestic
and foreign products. Thus, the production volume of high octane gasolines
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in 197~ was 73.9~ against 66.8~ in i975, low sulfur diesel fuel 69.5qb
against 62qb correspondingly of the total production volume. At present, 73
kinds of petroleum products have the government emblem of quality. The ratio
of petroleum products of the highest category of quality increased greatly
compd.red to 1975� ,
The intensive development of the industry required giving special attention
to rendering production wastes harmless and protecting natural resources.
Considerable financial means axe being allotted to protect the environment.
Harmful exhausts were classified and typical measures were developed for their
elimination. A special feature in petroleum refining exhausts is the preva-
lence of hydrocaxbons their share is 60;$ in a.tmospheric exhausts. The
sources of exhausts into the atmosphere are petro'leum reservoirs, pouring
platforms, pumping-compressor and refrigerating equipment, fixtures, safety
valves etc.
- The following measures are being taken to reduce air pollution by hydrocax-
bons: sealing reservoirs (replacing stationary covers by floating ones, in-
stalling pontoons made of synthetic films~; building improved samplers,
~ reducing transport operations; blowing-through when prepaxing equipment for
repairs; increasing the ef Sciency of cooling petroleum products; introducing
direct feed of raw ma,terials to installations without intermediate reservoirs;
utilizing flaxe gases and gases of bitumen oxidation; raising the efficiency
fo ~rapping petroleum pruducts in water p�urification installations;and equip-
ping centrifugal pumps with face s~als.
_ Measures are being taken to reduce exhausts into the air of carbon monoxide,
sulfur-containing compounds and particulates. These measures include in-
suring complete combustion of fuel in industrial furnaces; afterburning of
exhaust gases; use of efficient systems to collect dust in low-sulfur fuels;
elimination of dumps. Thus, in 1977, an installation was put in operation
at the Kremenchug NPZ for purifying tiydrocaxbon gases of hyd-rogen sulfide
and obtaining sulfur from it.
The efficient utilization of wa~er resources and rendering effluences haxm-
les:~ is receiving great attention. An efficient method for reducing water
consumption is using apparatus for air cooling (AVO); their number at petro-
'leum refining plants in the republic exceecls 250. Some 200 million m3 of
water was saved by using them with 11,000 to 12,000 rubles per year of opera-
tional costs being saved per one appaxatus. The use of AVO reduces not only
water consumption, but also the quantity of sewage watex, and is a sma.ller
load on purifying installations and sewage pipelines. The use of electric
power is reduced considerably as well as the costs for capital and current
repairs of the condensation-refrigeration equi~ment, with the elimination of
labor-intensive cleaning of apparatus and pipelines of water-cooling equip-
ment.
Another method for reducing water consumption is to develop the circulating
water supply. At present it is used at almost all enterprises and provides
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90~' of the water required in production. The productivity of circulating
_ systems increased by i.5 times dL~;r~ the Ninth Five-Year Plan period.
During that time, comprehensive p~.:rifying insta]..lations were built and put
into service at the Kherson~ Nadvornyansk and Lisichansk NPZ using the
latest achievements in this field. For example, the drainage of tha Kher-
_ son NPZ, after mechanical purification, was sent along with city sewage to
biochemical purification facilities after which no petroleum products were
found in them. In the 10th Five-Yeax Plan period, the construction and ex-
pansion of purifying facilities are being done at a faster rate. In 1977
_ alone, purifying facilities were put in operation at the L'vov NPZ, and
those at the Qiessa and Kremenchug NPZ were expanded. At the Lisichansk NPZ
- an installation was put in operation for making harmless salt-containi.ng
- drainages, returning the salt to the plant. At this same plant, for the
, firat time in the republic, an installation was put in operation for burning
pet.roleum sludge.
The plan for the further gxowth and development of the petroleum refining
industry provide for the expansion of existing enterprises a.nd its basis
is qualitatively new. The Kremenchug, Nadvornyansk, Lisichansk and other
petroleum refining plants will be expanded considerably. It is planned. to
increase the volume of primary petroleum refining and develop secondary
" processes considerably. The introd.uction of catalytic reforming of unit
capacity of 1 million tons per yeax will be expanded.
It is p]anned to introduce the isomerization process, as well as to change
the catalytic refor;ning over to more efficient catalysts due to the neces-
sit;~ of ineeting greater demands for higher octane gasolines Ai-93 and Ai-98.
In connection with a greater volume of refining sulfurous and high sulfur
content petroleum, the lead will be taken by installations for hydraulic
pur~.fication of fuels, either separate, or within combined installations.
In connection with the considerabla increase in the fleet of internal com-
bust.ion engines, the output of hign quality motor oils is increasing; demand
is also i.ncreasing for sulfate additives, especially in medium and high-
alk~cli (types S-i50~ 5-300~ which must replace fully low concentration ad-
- ditives of the PMS type. It is planned to build a high capacity installation
far rnanufacturing sulfonate additives.
It is necessaxy to organize the production of imide additives to motor oils
~that meet the requirements of the operation of carburetor engines with an
intermittent operating rate at low temperatures, as well as diesel engines
that must use motor oils with high detergent properties.
t~ e of the planned new in principle processes is the production of bitumen
by a continuous method of distillation towers. The basic directions of
scientific-technical progress in the axea of lubricant production axe: the
use of semicontinuous processes; the introduction oi im~:roved brewing appa-
ratus~ mixing devices and homogenizers; the development and manufacture of
multipurpose lubricants with lithium oxystearate, complex calcium, anhydrous
calcium, complex aluminum, barium~ silica gel, bentonite and other lubricants.
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A qualitatively new basis for the development of petroleum chemistry is an
accelerated increase in the capa,cities for producing ethylene and the
propylene associated with it, butylene-divynil, aromatic and other hydro-
- caxbons. Among petroleum refining products, liquid pa.raffins wh3.ch are raw
ma.terials for the microbiological synthesis industry occupy and importan+
_ place. Systems of adsorption separation of liquid paraffins will be intro-
duced, as well as the production of liquid pa.raffins by the "Pareks" metnod.
The fulfillment of the complex problems faced by the petroleum refining
industry of the Ukraine in the the lOth and ilth Five-Yeax Plan periods will
ma.ke it possible to increase the efficiency of plant operation and will
facilitate the development of all industries of the national economy of the
republic.
COPYRIGHTs IZDATII,'STVO "KHIMIYA", "KHIMIYA I TF~CHN(~I,OGIYA TOPLIV I MASEL",
3979
2291
CS~: 1822
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FfJII,S AND REGATID DQU~I~NT
unc 665.63.oo4.i7
PETROLEUM R~FINING ELECTRO-DFSALINATIQN UNITS
Moscow KHIMIYA I TEKHNOLOGIYA TOPLIV I MASII, in Russian No 9, Sep 79 PP 29-31
[Article by A. A. Ka,linin, S. A. Feygin~ A. A. Prokhorova: "Technical-
Economic Indicators Installations of High Unit Capacity for Primaxy Petro-
leum Refining"~
~TExt~ For a long time the petroleum refining industry of the USSR pro-
ceeded along the path of creating large plants for refining petroleum using
esgecially the proces~ of direct distillation. In the last decade only
installations of 3 and 6 million tons per yeax r~,ted capacity were built,
including those built in combination with II,OU ~Electric desalination unit~
_ units and secondary distillation of gasoline, as well as in combination with
GK-3 and LK-6u installations. In 1976, the ratio of 3 and 6 million, tons
per year rated capacity installations was over 25,~ of the total number of
installations for prima,ry refinin~ of petroleum, including about 15~ of the
installations with a capacity of 6 million tons per yeax. .
To improve further the 3 and 6 million ton per year installations and to
improve their work, the VNII NP [Al1-Union Scientific Research Institute
of the Petroleum Industry] generalizes and analyzes the data on the work of
such installations. The basic purpose of the analysis is t o uncover re-
serves for raising the efficiency of the indicated installat ions and to
develop measures for implementing these reserves. Moreover, it is necessary
to compare the technological and technical-economic indicat ors with the
rated iz~dicators and disseminate the experience in operating the best in-
stallations. The Table shows the actual data on AT ~expansion unknown]
~ installations with rated capacities of 3 and 6 million tons per yeax which
increased. in capacity to the same degree in i975�
~ The analysis of capacity utilization showed, that in 1975 abcut 90~ o the
assimilated inst~,llations exceeded.-the rated capacity by over 10~. A con-
siderable increase in capacity was achieved by modernization.
During the period of operation of the 3 and 6 million ton per year installa-
tions, a stable trend was noted in the growth of their annual capa.cities
(in f of the rated, without taking Ynto account installations put in opera-
tion in the given year): in 1972 1i0.6; in 1973 ii4.2; in 1974~ 118.1;
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in 1975 125�5� The increase in annual productivity (an average of 90~~
was mainly due to the increase in average daily productivity, i.e., by in
tensive use of equipment, as well as an increase in the annual operating
_ time of ~he installations. At the installations analyzed, the basic atten- -
tion was given to increasing the average daily productivity. The annual
operating time was increased. insu~ficiently (repair time was not reduced
enough and the u.nplanned idle times were not eliminated),
- Positive experience on increasing the average annual operating time of in-
stallations was accumula.ted in several NPZ where equipment (small mechanized
tools) were used efiiciently. This ma.de it possible to reduce the time for
repairs, cleaning, assembly and disassambly. Thus, at one of these plants,
= the average annual operating time for the ELOU-AT-6 installation during
1972-1975 was 95.4~ compaxed to 93q~ on the average for installa.tions of
- sucn a capacity.
Along with a considerable increase in the capacities of the install.ations -
being analyzed, the capacities of the individual units of these installations
as a whole are not being utilized fully. Thus, units for secondary distill-
- ing of gasoline are loaded only to 70 to 80~ of the rated capacity and in
individual cases are not utilized at all. Th~ loading of vacuum 3istillation
' units for fuel oil for 1972-1975 in ~ of the rated was: for the 6 million
ton per yeax installations 0.9; 6; 33.7 and 4~2.8 respectively; and for
the 3 million ton per year installations 97�2~ 121.~~; 126.1 and 106. "
(in the calculations of average values, the data for trie assimilation period
was not taken into account),
In individual NPZ that did not have catalytic cracking installations, vacuum
units of AVT installations practically did not operate due to the lack in
the requirements for vacuum gas oil as raw ma,terial for catalyLic cracking.
, A partial loading of the units or not operatir.g them at all leads to a re-
_ duction in the effectiveness of capital investments.
To a great extent, stable operation of direct petroleum disti].lation in-
sta'llations depends on the quality of its preparation. In all the analyzed -
installations, the preparation of petroleum at field facilities and II,OU
units improved before the direct distilla,tion. This is indicated by data
on i;he salt content in milligram per liter for 1972 to i975~ before the
907, 793~ ~28 and 248 respectively; after the ELQJ 14.1~ 11.6~
9.1 and 6.7. The results obtained. at analyzed installations are almost
twice as good as the average results at all ELOU installations. This is
due to the use of more modern apparatus for desalination in combined II,OU-AT
and ELCU-AVT installations.
When the salt content is reduced, the calendax time utilization coefficient
and the time between repairs increase. Thus, in i972 to 1975 inclusive _
these indicators changed as followsr calenda.r time utilization coefficient
from 91.9 to 93~; time between repairs from 8.9 to 12.8 months (data
for 1972 and 1975). On the ave-rage, calendax tim~ utilization coefficent
, is 10% greater for the analyzed installations than the average for all primary -
- refining installations in the USSR.
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Table
Actual indicators for A'I'~ installations
Indicators Rated capacity Improvement in indicators,
million +,ons~year _
3 6 .
Praiuctivity, ~ of 127.2 127.6 -
rat ed
Cos1 of installation 8390 12,676 -
100 rubles
Same for installation 219$ i655 2~�7
per i ~illion tons~
year
~ost for refining 1.13 1.03 9�8
1 ton of petroleum,
- rubles
, Total staff~ men 38 51 -
Same for installation 10 67 -
per i million tons~
year '
Volume of refining 100,7 150 ~9
per worker, 1000 tons "
*Ba.sed on average data for all existing installations in 1975� .
Camparing indicators for an AT-6 installation and two AT-3 installations.
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The analysis also snows that with a reduction in salt content in petroleum
to 1-3 milligrams~liter, the calendar time utilization coefficient in-
creases to 95-96~ which corresponds approximately to an interrepair time of
17 to 22 months, or almost 2 times greater than the actual value for the
installations being analyzed. Thus in an NPZ where the best results were
_ obtained by desalinating petroleum in an II,OiJ unit of an II,OU-AT-6 installa-
tion (2.4 mil~igrams per liter accord.ing to the average annual data)~ it was
possible to obtain a continuous run of 18 months between repairs. In i975,
a reduction in the salt content in petroleum at 3 and 6 million ton per
year. installations saved about 2.5 million rubles.
- ~ s972-1975, the ratio of installations that operated without idle times
due to organizational causes or accidents (without taking into account those
being put in operation in a given ysar~ increased substantiallys 33~3~ 35�7~
37�`i and 61.1~ respectively. But as rollows from the cited data (even for
1975), the ratio of installations with the above-mentioned idle times is
~ stil.l high (38.9,~) ,
The problem of energy economy is especially urgent for modern high capacity
insiallations. The ratio of fuel in the structure of power consumptiun is
8C to 90~ in the analyzed installations, therefore, to save power it is first t
necessary to reduce the consumption of fuel. Investigations of axrangements
~ of preheating the petroleum in heat exchangers showed that there axe consid-
erable reserves for reducing unit fuel consumption by attaining the rated
temperature (2i0�C) in the heat exchangers. In the analyzed installations
tne above-mentioned temperature attained was, on the average, 195�C, while
in 1972-1975~ no noticeable trend was observed to raise it (du~; to the in-
sufficient heat exchange surface, imperfect heat exchange arrangements and
the design of the heat exchangers).
Accoxding to calculations in 1975, overconsumption of fuel due to underheat-
ing in all installations amounted to aboat 180,000 tons which is 8~ of the
actual consumption, or is approxima,tely equal to the annual fuel requirement
of one II~W-AT-6 installation. This is equivalent to over 2.5 million ru-
bles (evaluating fuel in accordance with the average union cost of petroleum).
Projact developments in recent years used heat exchange arrangements tnat
ma.de it possible to heat the petroleum to 250-260�C using domestic apparatus.
Attaining such temperatures in the analyzed installations would have made it
possible to reduce actual fuel consumption by 25~ on the average and save
over 600,000 tons of fuel per year.
'r~ater ~team is in second place after fuel in the energy expenditure structure.
Reserves are also available for reducing its consumption in the analyzed in-
stallations. One of these reserves is heat-recovery boilers which are being
operated unsatisfactorily at most of the installations. Thus, a11 installa-
tions that use heat-recovery boilers can reduce the actual consumption of
steam by an average of 70~ which is equivalent to reducing operational costs
b,y 4 m;_llion rubles on the average.
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Average unit c~nsumption indicators for installations rated at 3 and 6
miilion tons per yeax are lower than the indicators for all installations
of p~imary petroleum refir_ing: unit fuel consumption by 15~; unit
- steam consumption by more than 3 times; unit electric power consumption
alm~st by 2 times. Significant reserves axe available for raising the
efficiency of operation of the considered installations by fuller utilization
of units for secondary distillat~on of gasoline and vacuum distillation of
fuel oil, increasing ~che annual operating time of the installations; length-
ening the time between repairs; reducing the use of power wi~th norma,l opera-
tion of heat-recovery boilers; and attaining the rated temperature of pre-
heating petroleum in heat exchanger,s by using the latest design developments.
COPYRIGHT~ IZDATEL'STVO "KHIMIYA", "KHIMIYA I TIICHNOLOGIYA TOPLIV I MASEL",
1979
2291
CSO: i822
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FUF~ AND RII,ATID EQUIPNLTNT
UDC 665 . 6z2 , 4~z
- EVALUATING ELECTRIC DESALINATION INSTALLATIONS
Moscow KHIMIYA I TEKHN OLOGIYA TOPLIV I MASEL in Russian No 9~ seP 79 PP 3i-33 -
[Article by A. P, Matiychenkos "Ch Substantiation of a Typical Technologi-
_ cal Arrangement for the II,OU [Electric Desalination Installation~"]
[Text~ The process of preparing petroleum at electric desalination in-
stallations (II,OU) consists of many steps: the petroleum is directed in
sequence~ first to electric dehydrators of the first and then second stages.
Connecting electric dehydrators along the petroleum flows is considered the
most chaxacteristic technological solution. Basic versions of II,QJ tech-
nological arrangements used in project planning or moderniza,tion include
- arrangements with series and parallel connection of the electric dehydra-
tors. To select.the optimal version, the ELOIJ technological axrangement
, must be analyzed by taking into account the providing of maximum effi-
ciency of the petraleum prepaxation process at minima,l capital expenditures
for technoTogical equipment, and monitoring and automation facilities. For
this purpose we will analyze each typical arrangement.
To evaluate more fully the efficiE:ncy of preparing petroleum for the II,OU
for a certain interval of time, cc~mprehensive indicators that take into
account the petroleum quality (cor.tent of salt and water) and the~produc- '
tivity of the installation ~i~ must be used. The amount of corrosive- -
aggressive substances (mineral salts, water) contained in the petroleum
prepaxed in the ELOU during the monitored interval of time is such an
indication of quality. The efficiency ff the ELOU operation may be evalu-
ated by a transfer function [2], determined in accordance with comprehen-
sive indicator at the output ~UB~Z)' to the value of this indicator at the
input (UBZ):
~ _ Ne~,~zvn~ca ~I~
1~az VBZ -
where W-- transfer function of the ELOU efficiency; Nax ~ N Bbix con- -
tent of mineral salts and water in petroleum at the input and output of the
II,OU respectively; VebrX , V~X amount of petroleum at the output
and input of the II,OiJ respectively.
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3/-I 32-!
! j
3i-Q 3l-/l . .
~ '
~
1!/ I ~
I
~ 31~ 31-G ~
_ o
II! ~ -
- O-Z; oa-3; go-4; o--S
- Fig. 1. Technological arrangement of an II,OU with seri.es connection of
the electric dehydrators:
= 1. consumption meter 5. phase interface level gage
2, mixer I. raw petroleum
3. gate II. desalinated petroleum
4. regulating valve III. flushing water
For an EL(~T arrangement with a series connection of the electric dehydra-
~or~ (Fig. i), the value of the comprehensive quality indicator at the
output of the i-th petroleum flow (Ue~iz,i) can be determined as followsi _
Vebtz, q = UHZ, ~~1-i~2-i ~2~
where Wi_i transfer funetion of the operation efficiency of the electric
dehydrator of the first stage of the i-th petroleum flow; W trans-
fer funetion of the operation efficiency of the electric hyd~a~or of the ,
second stage of the i-th petroleum flow.
The value of the comprehensive petroleum ~ua.lity indicator at the II,C1U out- _
put (U~~,x). is determined by the sum of t e comprehensive indicator values
at the output of.each flou. Taking the cited informa,tion into account, we
have~
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n -
Vas~z = 90 ~ Qtwi-i~~-i ~3)
1� 1 .
whrjre qo total petroleum oon$umption at the k~,OU; qi petroleum con-
cumption in the i-th flow. -
Electric dehydrators of the same type axe used in the desalination section
_ of powerful combined installations. For a uniform petroleu~ri distribution
in each flow, the efficiency transfer funetions of the electric dehydrators
of one stage axe equal. Therefore, the efficiency transfer funetion of
an II,(~1 with a series connection of electric dehydrators is determined by
a product of the efficiency transfer funetions of one electric dehydrator
of the first and second stages:
~nc = ~i-iwa-! ~4)
Fo~ an arrangement with a paral~el canne~tion of:~leatric dehydrators ~
(F~.g. 2~ the yalue o~ the.comprehensive quality~ indicator at the output _
of the first desalination stage (UI) is determined by the expression
(JHZ -
- UI 90 ~ 4~-imt-i (5)
i= 1
where U value of comprehensive qua,lity indicator at the II,OU input;
.s~ qo total petroleum consumption in the ELOU; m-- number of electric de-
- hydrators in the first stage; qi_i petroleum consumption in the i-th
electric dehydrator of the first stage; Wi_i efficiency transfer func-
tion of the i-th electric dehydxator of the first stage.
The value of the comprehensive quality indicator at the output of the
electric dehydrators of the second stage of desalination are determined in
a simi.lar way. Comprehensive quality indicator Ua~=,np at the ELOU output
with parallel connection of electric dehydxators is determined. by the
following expression: -
m n -
9i-iWi-s ~ 9s-1~_-1
Vea~z. np = Uaz f~ i 40 ~ 90 ~6)
_ where n-- number of electric dehydxators in the second stage; q
petroleum consumption in the j-th electric dehydrator in the sec~nc~ stage
of desalinatinn; W2_~ efficiency transfer function of the electric
dehydxator in the second stage. ~
~ 13
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II! .
3F7
~r
r
3l 1/ Z
A ~
1 ~ ~ ~
1 .71~i ~ r ,f '
` ~ .
Fig. 2. Technological arrangementoof the II,(~J with paxallel connection -
of the electric dehydrators (for designations, see Fig, i.).
For an equal petroleum consumption in electric dehydrators of one stage,
their efficiency transfer functions will be equal. Taking into account
equation (5) and (6) the efficiency transfer function of the ELOZJ with
parallel connection of the electric dehydrators is determined by expression
~aD - W i-l~=_~ ICI~
It follows from (4) and (7) that for an eg,ual number of electric dehydra-
tors in one stage, and an equa,l number of desalination stages, the II,OU
efficiency is determined. by the product of efficiency transfer functions
of one electric dehydrator in the first and second stages independently of
the type of technological arrangement. Inasmuch as the type of technologi-
cal arrangement of the electric dehydrators has no effect on the effic~.ency
of prepaxing petroleum for the II,(7fJ, we will calculate the required auxi-
_ liary equipment (cut-off valves, regula,ting valves, mixers) and KIPiA [Con-
trol and measurement instruments and automation equipment] equipment for
typical technological arrangements with eight electric dehydr.~.tors. The
number of shut-off valves is determined by taking into accour~~ the bypass-
ing regulating valves (see Table). According to the data ir~ the Table, a
1~.
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� parallel ELOLT arrangement requires (for all othar conditions being equal)
less KIPiA and auxiliary equipment, i.e., the parallel arrangement is
preferable.
~ Table
~ Ca,lculation of quantity of auxiliary equipment
D~uipment Number of equipment units
in paxallel in series
a,rrangement axrangement
Shut-off valves 46 72
Meters for petroleum 10 12
and water consumption
Gage for phase interface level 8 8
_ Regulating valves 10 16
- Regulating devices 10 16
"Wa~ter-petroleum mixers" 2 8
Thua, for all other conditions being equal (number of desalination stages,
number of electric dehydrators in each stage) the efficiency of the petro-
leum process in the ELOiJ does not depend on the technological arrangement
of electric dehydxators, i.e., the type of technological arrangement of
the EL(X1. The parall~l technologiEal arrangement of~electric dehydrators
is more efficien~ with respect to the required qua,ntity of KIPiA eq,uipment,
"water-petroleum" mixers and shut-off valves which, as a whole, raises the
economic indicators and the reliability of II,OU ~unctioning. The intro-
duction of the design and modernization of a single typical technological
arrangement for the E[,IXJ will ma.ke possible a considerable e~onomic effect
by reducing the time for design, construction and assimilation o~ rated
_ capacities and will reduce operational costs.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
i. Ma.tiychenko~ A. P. KHIMIYA I TII{HNCff,OGIYA TOPLIV I MASII,, No 4, 1975
PP 35-37.
2. Besekerskiy, V.A.; Popov, ~e. P. "Theory of Automa.tic Control System."
Moscow, Nauka, i972 PP 52-55�
COPYRIGHT: IZDATII,'STVO "KHIMIYA", "KHIMI~A I TEKHNQLOGIYA TOFLIV I MASEL"~
i979
2291
CSO: 1822
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FUE~LS AND RELATED EQUIPMENT
UDC 553.98.2.042+622.323/324(47+57)
FUNDAMENTALS OF LONG-TERM FOFLECASTING OF THE NUMBER OF PROVEN OIL~ GAS RESERVES
Moscow SOVETSKAYA GEOLOGIYA in Russian No 8, Aug 79 pp 3-13
[Article by N. I. Buyalov (VNIGNI [All-Union Petroleum Scientific Research
Institute of Geological Exploration]), V. N. Korniyenko (Minnefteprom
[Ministry of the Petroleum Industry]) and I. P. Lavrushko (VNIGNI)]
[Text] Development of the economy of the r,ountry is largely determined by
- the state of the fuel and raw material base. The tasks posed by the 25th
CPSU Congress dictate a real need to carry out long-term planning of the
main indicators of activity of the oil and gas industry for periods which
exceed the five-year period.
' Successful embodiment ot the plans for development of the oil and gas industry
will largely be determined by correct and reliable forecasting of the state of
oil and gas resources and the ratio of reserves of different groups and cate-
goires. Dependable and reliable forecasting of tne variation of reserves and
the ratios between them will permit efficient planning of the disposition of
_ future volumes of exploratory and test drilling and financial expenditures.
and will consequently provide high efficiency of operations during subsequent
,years and will determine the necessary levels of oil and gas production and
the increase of reserves. ~
The activity of geological prospecting and oil- and gas-producing organiza-
tions is characterized by such indices as oil and gas resources, reserves,
the volumes of exploratory and test drilling, capital investments, operating
efficiency and so on. This series may be regarded as a system of closely re-
lated indices developed in time which have specific internal and external
connections. A means of studying these complex systems is systems analysis.
One of its main tasks includes modelling of the system and determination of
its status of the future,~i.e., in forecasting CS]. It makes it possible to
find the most realistic methods of sol~ing the tasks and problems related to
complex systems by thus ensuring the best satisfaction of the posed
requirements [7]. '
The methods of calculating the initial producible potential resources (NIPR)
must be improved for more confident justification of future volumes of ' _
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exploratory and test operations and their efficiency. In this regard the
authors developed a sequence af long-term forecasting of time variation of
oil and gas resources and reserves and also other important indicators of
geological prospecting operations based on the concept of practical limita-
tion of oil and gas resources in the interior. The authors proceeded from the
fact that study and use of the oil and gas resources existing in the interior
are incomparably low in their activity compared to the process of transformation
of organic matter and formation of fields. Therefore, the influx of any sig-
nificant newly formed volumes of oil and gas to known and yet undiscovered
fields cannot be counted on. Consequently, all NIPR in the foreseeable future
will be determined and then extracted, i.e., the interior will be completely
depleted.
We understand NIPR as the amount of oil or gas which is located in the interior
can can be extracted. This corresponds to a specific degree to the generally
accepted terzn NIPR, which is understood as the total number of commercial oil
and gas reserves contained in known fields prior to the beginning of exploita-
tion and also future reserves and quantitative analysis of forecasting the oil
and gas content, i.e., the sum of already extracted reserves (accumulated pro-
duction ~ qt), proven extractable reserves (categories A+ B+ C1), future
extractable reserves (category C2) and quantitative analysis (the extractable
- part) of forecasting the oil and gas content (group D).
Since NIPR are the objectively existing extractable volumes of hydrocarbons in
the earth's interior, then based on the prerequisite of limitation of initial
oil and gas reserves in the interior, the sum of their constituent terms
- should not vary in time, corresponding to the equation
~CHNf1P-QD~-D,~QC~~QA-FBtCiT~iQt =COTISt.
Only the ratio and levels of the reserves of different groups, categories and
production will vary (Figure 1).
It is obvious from Figure 1 that the entire volume of NIPR is completely rep-
presented by reserves of group D at the very beginning of operations and is
represented at the very end of operations only by the volume of oil or gas
production accumulated during tne entire period of development of the region.
During the intermediate periods, NIPR may be expressed in the form of the sum
of the volumes of reserves of different groups and categories and of accumu- .
lated output. The dynamics of variation of the levels of NIPR terms for dif-
ferent periods of development of a region--from the beginning of operations
to completion--are shown in Figure 2. -
Variation of NIPR terms is interchangeable. Each of these terms can be ex-
pressed in the form of dynamic variables, represented graphically by curves
and asymptotically approaching a specific limit which they cannot exceed.
Each of the curves, on the one hand, has its own individual configuration
and on the other hand, the nature of its variation is determined by variation
of the variables which shape the other curves. As a region is studied, the
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Qi+NnP
D2 D~
~~i
CZ A *8 *C' '
- 0
t~ r o a ai c 1) tK
_ ~Z +.3 ~~r ~5
Figure 1. Dynamics of Variation of Internal Structure of
NIPR: 1--predicted estimate of subgroup D2;
2--predicted estimate of subgroup D1; 3--future
reserves of category C2; 4--commercial reserves
of categories A+ B+ C1; 5--production from
the beginning of exploitation
Key: ~
lo Years
predicted reserves will decrease and approach zero, whereas the initial ex-
_ tractable commercial reserves and the accumulated output will increase from
zero and will approach its own upper limit--the NIPR, and the curve of accum-
ulated output, generally repeating the configuration of the curve of initial
reserves, will lag somewhat behind it in time.
. _ _ -
'QNHnv D+CZ -
E~t
Qq+B ~C~ ~ -
QA~B'~f
9r
0
fH ~oaai(1) ~K
Figure 2. Dynamics of Variation of Absolute Levels of Proposed
Extractable Reserves D+ C2, Proven Reserves
A+ B+ Clr Current Commercial Reserves Q~p, + g+ C1~ _
Accumulated Output F qt and Annual Level of Oil and Gas
Production qt
Key:
1. Years
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The practice of geological prospecting and exploitation operations for oil
and gas in a number of regions with a long history of development indicates
the identity of the nature of time variation of almost all indices. Factual
data indicate that the values of such indices as current reserves and current
production increase during the initial stages, reach their own maximum at
some point, after which they gradually decrease and again approach zero
(Figure 2). This increase of dQ/dt can be represented by two differential
growth equations
dy ' y
dt = )'a~l- k) (2)
or
Y
dt = ya ln (-y ) , (2' )
where dy/dt is the rate of growth of the index in time, k is the upper bound
to which index y(0 ~ y~C k) may increase and a is the growth proportionality
_ constant.
After integration, equations (2) and (2') assume the form
, k (3)
;
) i h exp ( - at )
i~=k exp [ 4 b exp (-at)], (3' )
where b is the integration constant.
Equation (3) is a logistical curve while equation (3') is a Gompertz-Meykem
curve. Each of these equations reflects an increase in the values of the
initial extractabZe commercial reserves and production from the beginning of
exploitation (curves F ~ QA~g~1 and ~qt in Figure 2). The nature of varia-
tion of the logistical curve and of the Gomper.tz-Meykem curve is generally
similar. T'he difference is that the second curve increases more rapidly dur-
ing the first stage than the first curve and then approaches the maximum value
less intensively. If the first derivatives of the equations of initial ex-
tractable commercial reserves and accumulated production are taken, we find
equations which describe the dynamics of variation of current extractable
commercial reserves of categories A+ B+ C1 and the current level of output
(curves Qp,+g~l and qt in Figure 2) .
The graphs in Figure 2 are similar to those which were presented by M. Hubbert
[11,12]. However, the authors of this article, relyinq on the main principles
suggested in the mentioned papers, used them with respect to the existing sys-
tem of classification of reserves in the USSR.
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Sinc:e the variations of the indi:,es graphically represented in the form of
the curves in Figure 2 are interrelated and regular, then, by knowing the
nature of the~e variations during a specific period which is described by
the corresponding formula, one can predict their further behavior.
Since curves ,~QQp,+B+Cl and qt asymptotically approach the same limit k,
, i.e., the NIPR, making use of factual data on the initial extractable commer-
- cial reserves and output accumulated since the beginning of exploitation to
- solve equations (3) and (3'), one can deternune the value of the NIPR. To
determine the state of extractable current reserves and annual production
during the past few years, let us proceed in a similar fashion by solving
the equations which describe the nature of variation of curves QA+g~l and qt.
We analyzed the variation of current extractable reserves, annual production,
initial extractable commercial reserves and production from the beginning of
exploitation for a number of oil- and gas-bearing regions of the country,
cha.racterized by a long period of exploratory-test and exploitation operations.
A forecast of the state of the parameters enumerated above for the future was _
made on the basis of this analysis. The sequence of conducting the operations
for accomplishing the forecast is described below.
The first and most important problem is to determine the value of the NIPR.
The predicted estimates of group D, reserves of category C2, reserves o� cate-
gories A+ B+ C1 and production since the beginning of exploitation are usu-
ally summarized when determining the NIPR. The values of the NIPR are recal-
culated periodically. The values of the NIPR seemingly become more and more
accurate, approaching the initial value, with each recalculation as our -
knowledge about the geological structure of the studied region, the essence
of the processes of genesis, migration and accumulation of hydrocarbons and
methods of quantitative analysis of forecasting oil and gas content is improved
and also as the future and commercial reserves are calculated. If one assumes
that the accuracy of the value of the NIPR increases, then the reliability of
such components of NIPR as the values of quantitative analysis of the forecast
(group D) and reserves of category C2 should also increase. In other words,
we should acquire greater and greater confidence in time in the fact that the
calculated volumes of ~xtractable reserves of categories D and C2 will actually
be discovered and will then be extracted from the interior. However, practice
shows that reserves of group D and category C2 remain unrealized over a very
long time period in some regions characterized by a high degree of study.
This naturally raises doubts of the accuracy of estimating the predicted and
future reserves and does not permit one to jud~~e the quantities of co~nercial
reserves which will still be determined. Doubts about the estimate of re-
serves of group D and categories C2 provide no bases to determine the,value
of the NIPR by simple addition of production and reserves of different _
categories.
In this regard, thE NIPR should be calculated on the basis of the tendency
estalalished during the entire prolonged period of exploration of a region in
variation only of commercial reserves and output by extrapolation of the
curves of the initia3. extractable reserves ~QQp,+g~l and production since .
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the beginning of exploitation ~~t up to their asymptotic limit k, i.e., the
NIPR, in regions with a long history of development where a specific trend in
variation of the increase of reserves and production has already been noted
and where a sharp increase can be expected only under extreme circumstances
_ (far example, in case of unexpected discovery of large fields, which is
hardly probable). Having thus determined the value of the NIPR and knowing
the initial extractable reserves of category A+ B+ C1 for the present, one
~ can calculate the volumes of the yet undetermined commercial extractable re-
serves. The number of commercial extractable reserves determined by this
method and still remaining in the interior can be compared to the total of
existing reserves of grcup D and category C2 calculated by traditional
methods. 2'he value of tlie ratio of yet undetermined commercial reserves,
calculated from the curv~:s,to the sum of the reserves of group D and category
C2 will reflect the reli~~bility of this sum, i.e., it will snow which part of
it, which we have callec~ the extractable reserves D and C2, will actually be
converted to reserves of commercial categories and will be produced.
All the parameters contained in the formula of the logistic curve and the
Gompertz-Meykem were calculated on a computer and their values for subsequent
years were also established to determine the value of the NIPR (limit k).
The value of k was calculated independently by five methods (9, 10, 13, 14, 15~.
Not only the numerical values of k, but also their reliability and also the
error of the es-~imate were determined. The values of k found by different
methods differed from each other by a value not exceeding 5-10 percent of the
absolute value with confident probability greater than 95 percent.
- Since the values of NIPR are are the most important indicators, they were
calculated by two additional metho3s as a check: by analyzing the variation
- of the density of initial reserves and by analyzing the variation of proven
reserves as meterage of exploratory-test drilling during the entire period
of developing a region is accumulated (Figure 3).
~ The quotient from division of ~ ~ QA+g.~l by s, where s is the total future
area of a regian, was taken for the density of initial commercial reserves
for each date. The nature of variation of the density of initial reserves
should totally repeat the nature of variation of the level of initial re-
serves: at the beginning of operations this density is equal to zero due to
~ the absence af reserves and as a region is studied, it approach~~s some maximwm
value which is equal to the specific density of the ~.nitial potential resources
completely converted to the accumulated production. The maximum value was also
det~rmined in a similar manner, i.e., by using the five methods which were used
in calculations for the accumulated output and the initial commercial reserves
[9, 10, 13,, 14, 15]. The five values of qS found upon multiplication by the
value of the future area yielded values of the initial potential resources of
a region. The maximum values of k calculated by the corresponding methods by
specific densities of reserves are in good agreement with previously obtained
estimates with reliable probability of more than 95 percent. One of the five
derived values of k was selected and mainly that which was determined by
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methods which yield the highest correlation relations and the least mean
square errors [10, 14, 15].
Parameters a and b contained in these equatior.s were then determined to solve ~
equations (2) and (2') and to determine the configuration of i:he desired
curves, for which the mean value of k was used. Determination of the coeffi-
cients was accompanied by an estimate of the confident interval necessary for
forecasting.
QaHna
(1} .
~ 40 ' ~ 2 ~ d4A;B.cr .~-+'G'
' BSOd
-oN
~ E'nQ=4 (1-Be ~
a
~ 30 HHnP
c
~ ~ 1
h
~ ~ ~ .
a 20 ~3) .
i ' ~
~
~ 10
~
0
0 4 8 12 1S 20
, ~JaKOnneaHOiri Mempa.hc, meic.M ~ 4 )
Figure 3. Graph of Variation of Proven Reserves (Sums of
= Increases of Reserves oc Categories A+ B+ C1)
as Meterage of Exploratory-Test Drilling is
Accumulated. The solia lines were plotted from
factual data and the dashed lines are analytical
curves (that is, those in Figures 4-6)
Key:
1. Proven reserves, arbitrary units 3. Output
2. Input 4. Accumulated meterage, thousand
meters
The reliability of estimating parameters k, a and b was determined three times.
The sampling was limited by 1) the first half of available observations, 2) by
the first two-thirds of observations and 3) by the complete set of observa-
tions. Matching of the calculated (predicted) and observed values was checked
in this case. The check of matching by the Darbin-Watson criterion, which was
carried out for calculations 1 and 2, showed that the predicted values agree
- witYz the actual values with reliable probability exceeding 99 percent. It was
alsa established that coefficients a and b, despite the difference in the vol-
~ ume of initial information, vary insignifi~antly. This indicates that the
derived equations give a good description of the time variation of the initial
indices. Consequently, they permit one to make a reliable forecast.
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It was establiahed that the volume of praven commercial reserves can be -
adequa.tely well approximated by an equation of the Gompertz-Meykem curve as
a region is drilled with an increase ~f exploratory-test meterage: -
~l1Q A-}-B+C, _ ~K H NfIPe-be-a/f ~
(4)
- where Qi,11PR are the initial extractable potential reso+~+-cps, b is i~he
integration constant and a is the growth proportionality constant.
This functional depzndence differs from the equation of the curve proposed
in ihe paper of A. Zapp [16]. The given reserves essentially do not increase
in ~he given case during the initial stage with an incr~ase of ineterage, _
whereas, according to A. Zapp [15], the growth of reserves is highest during
. the initial stage, which clearly contradicts the factual data.
If ~ae take the first derivative of equation (4), we find the functional ex-~ _
pre:3sion of the variation in the increase of proven reserves per meter of
sin}:ing wells with an increase of ineterage, i.e.,
d ~~Q,~+s+c~~ = QHNRP QfJ 2_be_aNe-nH. (5)
dH
The nature of variation of efficiency is essentially similar in all regions:
effic~ency is low or almost equal to zero during the early stages of geologi- ,
cal prospecting operations, it then begins to increase and at some moment
' reaches a specific maximum, after which it gradually decreases. However, in
view of the specifics of regions, the characteristics of distribution and
disposition of fields and their reserves, the nature of variation of efficiency
may vary from region to reginn with retention of the overall trend.
_ The given nature of variation of the initial extractable commercial reserves
and the increase of reserves per meter of sinking wells was also noted pre-
viously [8, 12, 16]. A graph of variation of equations (4) and (5) is pre-
sented in Figures 3 and 4.
Based on the assumption that the growth of reserves will also subsequently
decxease exponentially after a maximum, the values of the increases of re-
serves during the past few years were calculated up to the moment when the
increase stops and the values of commercial reserve not yet extracted from .
the interior and the NIPR were also calculated.
The values of the NIFR calculated by analyzing the variation of the density of
initial commercial reserves and increase of reserves per meter of drilling were
ve~.y similar to values of NIPR calculated by the logistic curve and the
Gompertz-Meykem curve. This indicates that the method of determining the NIPR
frotr~ these curves is logically and mathematically justified and can be used
in practice.
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~ (1) .
~5
d
~ ~
s
~ 4 dQ
q dH
ma g /
-0 `
~2 \
0
~
.
~
a~ ~
eH -
1N~HZ 2 ~2~ 3 4 � 5 6
NaKO/JJlCNHb/l! MempQ.hc, Ml1H.M
Figure 4. Graph of Variation of Annual Increase of Reserves
of Categories A+ B+ C1 Per Meter of Exploratory-
Test Dril~ing During the Entire Period of Operations -
in the Region
OQ~ H~Q be-be -aHe_aH. ~ dQ
- ~ HHfIP ~Q ( dH ) OH
Key:
1. Drilling efficiency, arbitrary.units
2. Accumulated meterage, million meters
Bes es the value of the NIPR, the volumes of production, current reserves
and future increases of reserves and also variation of the total extractable
predicted estimates and future (assumed) reserves were calculated for the
_ san~e r.egions and a number of associations (Figures 5 and 6). -
By calculating the volumes of NIPR and the commercial reserves not yet ex-
tracted, we assumed that the values of the oil yield coefficient in the future
as equal to its current value. One may also determine the NIPR and the volumes
of commercial reserves not yet determined by introducing corrections into the
- calculations for variation of the oil yield coefficient in time, taking into
account progress in the technolagy of field exploitation.
When plottii~g the graphs (see Figure 6), the.authors proceeded from the prop-
osition that all the reserves can be conditionally separated into proven (the
total accumulated production and commercial reserves of category A+ B+ C1)
and assumed (the total future reserves of category C2 and predicted estimates
- D], + D2 ) �
In those regions where the confirmability of the future reserves of fields is
low, they can be included in the assumed reserves. If the confirmability of
the future reserves of fields is suFficiently high, the assumed reserves will
2!~
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~
~
~ ~l ) ~ ? i
~ y p ~ / Pe Q~;B,~~ ~ ~
a D+~,l
_ 0 3p ~ ~~�e~c .
1 ~ ~
~o ~ ~
~ ZO ~ \ .
~
c ~
~ f0 ~ Eff
i ~
i \ ~
0 ~
r~ (a) ~ o a.~ - t
K
Figure 5. Dynamics of Variation by Years of Accumulated
Production ~ qt, Proven Reserves ~L~Qp,+g~l,
and Assumed Extractable Reserves D+ C2
Key:
1. Reserves, production, arbitrary units
2. Years
be represented only by the sum of the quantitative estimate of group D and
reserves of category C2 of promising structures. In this case reserves of
category C~ of fields will also be included in initial extractable reserves -
when calculating the NIPR by extrapolation of the curves of initial extract-
able reserves. Basec~ on equation (1), the assumed reserves were arbitrarily
combined in the given case under the index D+ C2 and were ~?Qtermined in the
following manner:
Q D-f-C a= Q H{1(1 P- QAtB-1~C~ -F- E 9 r ( 6)
or
QD+C~=QFlH[1P'"'F.r 0 QA-FB+C~.
The sum of derivatives d(~ qt )/dt and d(Qp,+g.F.~l )/dt presented in Figure 6
yields values of the increase of commercial reserves due to exploratory-test
drilling, which is expressed by the formula
d( E 9e) + d~Qn+e+c~) _ pQn+e+c 0 Q,~+e+c,-Eqr. ~8)
dt d t
The actual values of the increases of reserves due to exploratoxy-test opera- ~
tions and also current levels of produc,tion are presented in this same figure
for comparison. The theoretical values of a p+B+Cl correspond completely in
their absolute value to variation of the level of reserves D+ C2, i.e.,
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d(D-I-C~) �
I ~ r ( =OQ,~+a+c, . ~9~
Variation of the efficiency of exploratory-test drilling, expressed in the _
increase of reserves per meter of drilling, corresponds completely to the
curve ~ QA,~B~1 presented in Figure 6.
. �4 v -
. ~
(~)3 ~ti:
~ ~
~ ~ ~ r:
~ ~~!:E4 i~~
a ~~i;EtlQ~~~
~ ~!.E~~ i :,I? _
0 2 h:~~�o i~l`
o ~ i: Q
~a I . 6 b;~ _
o ~ 'i:'~44 v~ ~ '
~ b a jl ~'~'v~- ~
b , i:
c ~ ~ � d'i ~i, y~ ~
~ 1 � ~ ~ .
~ .Q' qt -
:o
~ i'~ : : ~~~dQAfe'~~
~ i~' o .�".Q ~ ~
. C ~:i��~~ b ~b Q ,
~ O o.t o
~h ~ b a4~+B+~,
�o .
0
f r o a o~ ( 2.)
t
N ~ 2 ~ 3 K
Figure 6. Graphs of Variation of Annual Production Levels qt,
Increase of Reserves from Exploratory-Test Drilling
Q QA.~g~l and Increase of Extractable Reserves -
dQp,+B+C1= 1--increase of extractable reserves per
year; 2--increase of extractable reserves; 3--annual
production
Key:
1. Reserves, ir.crease of reserves and production, arbitrary units ,
2. Years
The nature of variation of the levels of reserves, production anfl increases
of reserves in the future is shown in Figures 5 and 6. Al1 this together
26 -
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permits one to determine the date of the maximum level of production, the
length of the period of production stabilization at this level and the date
of the beginning of its decrease. The possibility of determining the volumes . _
of the increases of reserves, required to support production, and also cf
calculating the approximate date of total depletion of the interior wi~hin a -
apecific oil- and gas-bearing region are repreaented by these graphs.
The method of long-term forecasting, based on the concepts and calculations
outlined above, permits one to make a forecast not only for areas with long
history of development, i.e., with sufficient volume of statistical material,
but also to plan the possible nature of development of the fuel and raw ma-
terial. base of the new region where exploratory-test operations are only be-
_ ginning on the basis of directive instructions.
,
One must have the following data to make this forecas
1) the initial extractable potential resources of the new territory -
estimated by different methods (volumetric-genetic, comparative-statistical
[3, 4, 6] and so on);
_ 2) the year since the beginning of operations for which it is planned
to provide maximum production and the highest level of current commercial
. reserves;
3) the given growth rates of production and the increase of reserves.
_ The need for these data is determined by the following circumstance. Param-
- eter a in equations (2) and (2') is a dimensionless value of the growth rates.
The logistical curve and the Gompertz-Meykem curve accordingly have inflection
points (when the first derivative has a maximum value) with the coordinates:
t = ~ab at-` Q=0,5 k; (10)
~ _ _ k
inb a~~ Q _
r = a e (11)
Knowing the given values of parameters a and k, one can determine parameter b
and can describe the required equations on the basis of which the necessary
calculations are made and the graphs of the assumed d1namics of variation of
all indicators are constructed similar to the graphs in Figures 5 and 6.
It is also important to analyze the dynamics of variation of technical-economic
indicators which determine the efficiency of exploratory-prospecting operations
and namely the specific increases of reserves per meter of drilling, per ruble
of expenditures and per completed well and also the cost of exploratory-test
drilling in rubles per meter of drilling for lonq-term forecasting of develop-
ment of the sector within a specific territory. Forecasting the variation of
the efficiency indices with r~egard to some technical-economic limitations
~ 27
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pennits one to estimate the volumes of drilling meterage and the financial
expc:nditures which are required to find the necessary increases of reserves.
- ~his forecast is a three-level two-stage correlation-regression model
~~1~~=f ~t) ~
[oQ,~=f(t)] ;[~~,~~=t(~~~, oQ~t)J, cia)
e q~t=f(H)J~
where t is time, Yri is different efficiency indices, Qi is the increase
of reserves for different associations and regions, Fi is financial expendi-
tures, Li is the necessary exploratory-test drilling meterage; F,S Qi is the
accumulated increase of reserves and H is the accumulated exploratory-test _
drilling meterage.
Soi1 analysis and forecasting of the prospects for developing the structure
and levels of reserves permits one to analyze the economic feasibility of a
further increase of new reserves. Problems of economic analysis are consid-
. ered in more detail in [1].
Analysis of calculations and forecasting of the dynamics of variation of
different indicators according to the proposed methodical approach should be
carried out four hierarchical levels: the USSR as a whole, large petroleum
qeological regions, administrative regions (union republics and oblasts) and
oil-producing associations.
The described procedures for calculations may be represented by a number of
sequential blocks:
1) calculation of the maximum values of k and determination of the
parameters contained in eguations (3) and (3');
2) calculation and plotting of graphs of differea~t indices and their
derivatives ~rom the predicted values found in block 1;
3) calculation of possible trends of development of new promising
regions based on planned indices of exploratory-prospecting and exploitation
work and their cost;
4) estimating the required expenditures to develop resources and to
prepare reserves, i.e., economic analysis of operations 1, 2 and 3.
5) optimization of corresponding expenditures to provide the necessary
expendit~res with restriction of matE~rial-financial resources and for possible
reduction of expenditures and an increase of operating efficiency. -
The proposed approach to long-term forecasting and planning of the sys~em of
indicators of exploratory-prospecting and exploitation work permits one to
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justifiably plan the development of the given system of indicators for the -
long term with regard to the geological characteristics of a specific region.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. ~uyalov, N. I., V. N. K,orniyenko and I. P. Lavrushko, "Long-Term Forecast-
ing of the Main Indicators of the Exploratory-Prospecting Process for Oil
and Gas Using Geological-Mathematical Methods," EKSPRESS-INFORMATSIYA. -
Ekonomika Mineral'nogo Syr'ya i Geologorazvedochnykh Rabot. OTsNTI BIEMS,
No. 4, 1979.
2. Buyalov, N. I., I. P. Zubov and V. N. Kramarenko, "Estimation of Future
Oil and Gas Content--An Indicator of the Efficiency of Exploratory and
Prospecting Operations for Oil and Gas," NEFTEGAZOVAYA GEOLOGIYA I
GEOFIZIKA, No. 1, 1976.
3. Avrov, V. Ya., S. G. Heruchev, S. N. Simakov and L. A. Veselova, "Brief
Characteristics of Forecasting Oil and Gas Reserves, Their Classification
and Method of Calculation," GEOLOGIYA NEFTI I GAZA, No. 5, 1972.
4. Nalivkin, V. D., M. D. Belonin, V. S. Lazarev et al, "Criteria and Methods -
of Quantitative Analysis of the Oil and Gas Content of Large Territories,"
SOV. GEOLOGIYA, No. 1, 1976.
5. Lange, 0., "Vvedeniye v ekonomicheskuyu kibernetiku" [Introduction to
Economic Cybernetics], Moscow, Progress, 1968. _
6. Nesterov, I. I. and V. V. Poteryayeva, Regional Geological Conditions
~ Which Control Formation of Large Oil and Gas Fields," GEOLOGIYA NEFTI I
GAZA, No. 10, 1971.
7. Rayzberg, B. A., Ye. N. Golubkov and L. S. Pecherskiy, "Sistemnyy podkhod
v perspektivnom planirovanii" [The Systems Approach in Future Planninq],
Moscow, Ekonomika, 1975. ,
8. Elliot, M., "Many Complex Factors Affect Oil and Gas Reserves Data," OIL
AND GAS, Vol. 75, No. 22, 1977.
9. Fisher, R., 10Statistical Methods for Research Workers, l.lth ed., Edinburgh,
1950.
10. Hartley, B., "Estimating Non-Linear Parameters by Internal Least Sc;uares,"
BIOMETRICA, Vol. 35, 1948.
11. Hubbert, M., "Energy Resources," A Report to the Committee on Natural
Resources of the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D. C., 1962.
12. Hubbert, M., "Degree of Advancement of Peicroleum Exploration in the .
United States," BULL. AM. ASSOC. PETROL. GEOL., Vol 51, No. 11, 1967.
29
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13. Jull, G., "The Growth of Population and the Factors which Control It,"
J. ROY. STAT. SOC., 1925.
14. Nair, K., "The Fitting of Growth Curves," in Statistics and Mathematics
in Biology, Jova, 1954.
15. Rhodes, E., "Population Mathematics," J. ROY. STAT. SOC., Vol. 103,
Part 3, 1940.
16. Zapp, A., "Future Petroleum Producing Capacity of the United States,"
U. S. Geol. Survey Bull., 1142-H, 1962.
COFYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nedra", "Sovetskaya geologiya", 1979
6521
CSO: 1822
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FUELS AND RELATED.EQUIPMENT
COAL MINES IN UKRAINE ARE MORE P~CHANIZED, BUT STILL UNDERWORKED
Kiev UGOL' UKRAINY.i:~ Russian No 8, Aug 79 pp 1-~+
[Az�ticle by V. A. Voronin, first deputy minister of the coal industry of the
Ukz�ainian SSR: "Ukraine's Underground Miners--Looking Forward to Miners'
Day"]
[Text] The republic's miners, just like Soviet people everywhere, celebrate
their traditional occupational holiday on 26 Aug 79--Miners' Day. Confi-
dently one can.state that the republic's coal industry has moved signifi-
cantly f.orward. Our mines have equipment with good productivity and they
are enterprises with sophisticated production practi.ces.
Designing, making and introducing new equipment combinations for mechani-
zirig stopes, a.long with the broadened scope of use for existing equipment,
raised (compared with 1970) the amounts of coal recovered with mechanized
equipment combinations by 3.5 times (by 19 times for coal seams up to
1.2 m thick), combine exploitation of workings--by 3.3 times and conveyor-
ization in steeply pitched workings--by 1.~+ times. Work is ~ust about
fitiished in the mechanization of the most labor-intensive processes,
namely, loading in stopes (97.~+ percent) and cutting through overburden-
_ removal and development horizontal workings (95 percent); and in converting
stationary and production-li~.e equipment combinations at mine surfaces to
au~;omatic and remote control (95 Percent). Work was done in improving
underground transportation with belt eonveyors, high-capacity cars.and
heavy-duty electric locomotives and in the mechanization of auxiliary work.
Conveyorization in steeply pitched workings is now 50.6 percent and in hori-
zontal workings--20 percent.
Persons initiating many value.d beginnings contributed greatly to coal indus-
= try progress: in boosting~the use efficiency of mining equipment, in accom-
plishing thousand-tons-a-day loadings and in rapid operations in workings.
In the Uka~aine 132 production gangs each loe.d 1000 ~ons or more a day.
These gan~s, a mere.l0.l percent of all such ~an~s,, supplied 24.7 million
tons of coal during�six months in 1979, or. 3~+.1 percent of the recovered
amounts in gently sloping seams with slope angles to 35�. The longwall
loading of the thousand-tons-a-day gan~s was 3.~+ times greater than the
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mean-daily amounts recovered from stopes; the labor productivity of these
F~ari~s is 2.8 times higher than the industry-wide mean indicators. For 20
gangs the mean labor productivity of the gan~ members r.eached 500-1000 tons
a month.
Breadly supported in the mines of the republic is the initiative--approved
by the Central Committee of the UkrainiaY~ Communist Party--of ten front-rank
gangs who are stepping up competition for higher loading at longwalls and
who are exploiting thin seams. Following the examples of the innovators,
182 gangs have already been extracting 500 tons or more of coal a day from
thin seams.
Since the gangs oi machine operators work at high rates, on-time preparation
of the production zone takes on very critical importance. Right now a dis-
proportion prevails in how much production and development work is mechanized.
Several factors (higher temperatures and higher blow-out dangers, the need
for cross-sectionally bigger workings under exploitation, more closely spaced
tin~bering and so on), growing out of increasing7~}r deeper exploitation are
slowing down the pace of development workings. Much work has been done in
Ukrainian mines in the past few years for updating the equip~nent on hand in
development faces and in more mechanization of drift operations. There is
4.5 times more (compared with 1970~) high-capacity 1PNB-2 and 2PNB-2 loaders;
2PNB-2B loaders with mounted drilling equipment have begun to be introduced.
By late 1.979 the stock of these machines will number 1020 units. The stock
of drift and cutting combines went up by 3.1 times and they are being con-
stantly improved: 1+PP-2 heavy-duty combines capable of brea.king up rocks
rated up to 6 in strength are being introduced; GPK combines are replacing
PK-3 units and KN cutting combines are coming on the scene. The amount of
development workings where eoal and rock are loaded by machines went up by ,
17.2 percent and is now 76.6 percent, including 23.2 percent--by drift com-
bines.
Ways have been determined in improving mine p:eparation at mines and bringing
in forward-looking technology. Primarily, these ways include:
organizing operations in development faces under.production-line arrange-
ments that are based on forward-looking technical and technological solutions
concentration of preparatory work that cuts the number of development faces
wor.ked at the same time, by setting up consolidated multifunction gangs
adding to the number of high-speed drift gangs
organizing the work of drift gangs under a cont.racting method
setting up specialized gangs to make development workings ready for drifts
- and gangs of riggers supplyin.g materials to the face
'I'he high level of engineering solutions, scientifi:c orgamization~of labor
together with the occupationa.l skill of workers, solidarity and labor disci-
pline enabled a number of front-rank gangs to improve their performance indi-
cators significantly. A large part in mastering advanced technology and in
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orgariizing drift operations on a new qualitative basis belongs to the gang
led by Lenin Prize Winner I. D. Zinchenko, Hero of Socialist Labor, from
Mine imeni Abakumov of the Donetskugol' Association. This gang drove 1113.2
m of drift as early as Oct 1963 with a PK-3m combine in Jan 1966--
1826 m and in Jun 1967--1851 m of drift in two faces. The gang's innova-
tions, its advanced methods and its operating procedures gained acceptance
across the industry:
V. G. Vendilovich's~gang, working,at the Mine imeni Abakumov, has excellent
performance indicators--it cut through l~+ km of workings in 3�5 years of
- the five-year plan peri.od. In 1979 the gang ma.de its mark with a number of
initiatives: achieving a mean-monthly drift cutting rate of 295 m in 1979;
ful.filling the plan for four years of the five-year plan period by the
- second anniversary of the new USSR Constitution; ful~illing the five-year
pl~.n by the 110th anniversaxy of the birth of Vladimir I. Lenin; and giving
assista.nce to D. A. Goncharov's drift gang. In backing these initiatives,
31 drift gangs.in the Donbass took on comm~tments to cut through 85 km of
- workings in 1979�
The gang of drift worl~ers led by D. G. Khomich, from the Chervona zirka
Mine of the Torezantratsit Association is systematica.lly scoring high per-
formance indicators. In three yeaxs of the five-year plan period the gang
drove through 9.1+ km of workings with a 1PNB-2 loader and in Mar 79--1117 m
of consolidated drivage.
After careful]y stuc~ying the processes of high-speed exploitation of work-
ings and drawing up a clear-cut schedule, the gang from the Mospinskaya
Mine of the Donetskugol' Association headed by I. N. Vinskiy, drove ~+05 m
of crosscut through tough rock in Apr 1979�
By setting up high-speed drift gangs, the volumes of development workings
were significantly increased in a mine of the Dobropol'yeugol' Association.
In Apr 1979, I. S. Suslev's gang in the Pioner Hydraulic Mine drove 703 m of
vent drift and in May N. Ye. Stepin's gang (from the Krasnolimanskaya Mine)
- drove 1335 m of vent drift in 31 working days. The mean-dai],y pace was
~+3.1 m; the labor productivity of the drift gang member was 12.2 m per month.
The face was eqaipped with a GPK combine and a prototype of the 1LTP-80 tele-
scoping belt conveyor. .
- The best drift teams of mine builders are also,scoring large successes. A. N.
Nosov's gang in the Zhdanovskaya-Kapital'naya Mine drove more than 1.9 km of
workings in 7 months. V.~I. Bubnov's gang is building the Zapadno-Donbass-
kaya Mine No 16/17; it drove about 1630 m of workings in 7 months of 1979,
at mea.n-month rates of 233 m~
At the Mine imeni Kalinin of the Donetskugol', Association, tlie gang led by
V. A. Nelepinskiy, from the Mine-Driving Construction Administration No 4
of the Donetskshakhtoprokhodka Trust, used an SK-lu shaft-driving complex
in Mar 1979 to drive 160 m of a vertical shaft with a drivage cross-sectional
axea of 46.5 m2 in 30 working.days; a record per-shift labor productivity
was set for the gang member--15.02 m2 of finished shaft.
~ 33 ~
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All told, in 1979 212 high-speed gangs in the mines of the Ukrainian SSR
Ministry of the Coal Industry completed 26 percent of.the total volume of
workings exploited; the mean rate was 212 m a month, which is 2.~+ times
hi~her than the ministry-wide avera~e.
A chu,lleri~;in~ task coriPronts miners in the republic: in the ver�y near futur�e
to modernize mining practices in a number of mines, to cut back on the tra.ns-
portation cycles and eli~inate segcnents therein, to better ventilate mines
and to convert high-capacity production faces to forward-looking ventila-
tion arrangements, to continue converting high-productivity production faces
to operations baced on the pillar systems and so on. Meeting this challenge
is to be based on a significant increase in the volumes of driving of develop-
ment faces, including special-purpose workings for upgrading mine practices
and the driving.of vent and technological shafts and boreholes. Alreac~y in
1979 there is a need to drive 3193.~+ 1im of development workings by the eco-
nomic cost-accounting method (which is 280.6 1~ more than in 1978); 360.5 ~
of workings must be driven by mine builders. In reac~ying a worthy welcome
to Miners' Day, the miners are coping successfully with the established
pla.ns a.nd targets and are taking on heavier co~nitments. Topping the 6-month
plan, 43�1 km of all development workings has been driven, including 8.3 km
of overburden-removal and development production faces.
Because the volumes of mine prepar~.tory work must be increased, new tasks
have been posed in organizing drivage; requirements on the technical level
and on designing and building efficient equipment have been considerably
tightened. Undergoing testing in the mines of the republic are the 1+PP-5
and GPK-2 combines with arrowlike working part for use in workings at com-
bined faces for rocks up to 6 in strength value. Improvements are still
going on in the Soyuz-19 rotary drift combine for making trunk field work-
in@;s in2racks having strength values of 6-8 and cross-sectional axeas of
17-20 m- Series production has begun of the Titan crushing-filling equip-
ment complexes, built at the Dongiprouglemash enterprise jointly with Donugi.
This equipmen~t most decidedly improves the engineering-economic indicators
for use in workings with fill. Etnploying the equipment complex at.the
- Trudovskaya Mine of the Donetskugol' Association in the sector headed by
I. I. Strel'chenko, twice Hero of Socialist Labor, promoted the mechanizin~
of working in rock filling, reducing the strength of the drift gang by 25
persons, improving the condition of the supported working and raising.the
load at the longwall to 4000 tons a day.
Doiiugi jointly with the Kopeysk Machir~e Buil.ding Plant imeni Kirov, Gipro-
uglemash and other organizations developed the Y,SV technolo~ and equipment
complex for use in paired workings with outpacing common coal face and fill-
in~ of the worked-out space between the workings with rock. In 1979 manu-
facturing will come to an end and tests will begin for the prototypes; from
1981 their series manufacture is projected. Equipment has been designed and
built for use in gently,sloping seams up to 0.9 m thick in paired workings
with drill-auger excavation of coal between the workings.
3~.
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The scientific-designing and production division will make it possible in the
i~nediate future to begin the production of drift equipment complexes. Stu-
dies are aimed at building the following types:
drift complexes based on the GPK-2, 4PP-2 and 4PP-5 combines, for full mech-
anization of the breaking up and loadin~ of rock and of timberin~, includin~
a complex with remote control, model 4PP-2ShCh for use in workings at blow-
out-dangerous seams .
equipment complexes for cutting operations at gent~}r sloping and steep~y
pitched seams 0.9-1.6 m thick; and KGV-1 dr~:ll-blasting drift complexes for
driving and supporting horizont~.l workings with a cross-sectional area of -
more than 19.3 m2 through rocks with a strength value higher than 6.
_ With increasing depth, questions of timbering and protection of workings take
on ever-growing importance. The primary timbering in development workings
is an arch metal pliant structure made of special corrugated section. A _
para.metric series of.SVP sections has been developed for this timbering as
functionally dependent on the width of workings with standard cross-sections. _
Introduction of five type classes of SVP sections has meant savings of more
than 5 million rubles a year.
Special shoring was developed--with oriented design resilience. These are .
metal arches AP~S a.nd AxP-5 for gently sloping,seams and PAK arches for
steeply pitching seams. Resilient shoring with increased load-bearing capa-
city, rectangular in shape, is being introduced into workings. The year
1979 saw production begin for shoring,made of low-alloy steels, significantly
lowering the specific consumption of inetal shoring. Connections for segments
- of AP shoring have been designed and are being introduced; they provide a
reliable characteristic and increase shoring reliability and safety in work
procedures.
Erecting shoring remains an arduous and laborious process in the drift cycle.
The Central Scientific Research, Planning and Design Institute of Underground
Mining Machines and Ug~emekhanizatsiya Scientific Production Ass~ociation.
But there axe no sclutions for mechanizing the entire process of shoring, '
including placement of framing, tensioning and filling of the shored-up space. ~
Miners in the Ukraine are directing the attention of scientists and machine
builders toward the need to build new kinds of drift equipment. Thus, the
possible volume of use for PK-9r and GPK combine has alreac~y been depleted,
but machines that can extend the volume of combine drivage (4PP-2 combine
and the KN cutter complex) are being delivered in too limited numbers. There
is a lack of a drift combine capabie of effectively breal:ing down rock that _
have a strength of 600-800 kg/cm2. Because there are not enough 1PNB-2B
and 2PNB drill-loaders with mounted drilling equipment, only 5 percent of .
the po~,sible volume of workings is exploited. The technology of exploiting
workings using PNB type machines without mounted equipment is extremely un-
improved, since the process of drilling boreholes is considerably complicated,
especially with column electric drills. All the time savings from higher
productivity in loading is lost because borehele drilling takes longer.
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The 1PNB-2u machine transferred to serie::, production status, for use in
' inclined work~,ngs, is not beir~~ manufactured. Development faces are still
- not� bein~ adequately supplied with means for mech anizinp; auxiliary trn.ns-
- port~,tion (4DMfC and 6l)NffC monorail lines) and mechanizin~ of shorting (KDM)
- a.nd loading and unloading work (tractors and TP hoists), which is holdin~
up pro~ress in integrated mechanization of drift operations.
In spite of the Titan compleYes having high efficiency, the Yasinovataya
Machine Building Plant is making them in small lots. Development faces of
mines where steep seams ar e being exploited are ~eing extremely slow]y con-
verted to high-capacity equipment with electric drive. Mine builders are
not being supplied with enough specialized drift equipment: BUK-2 concrete-
placing complexes, OMP mobile metal falsework and complexes for driving and
deepening shafts.
In Apr 1979 All-Union Scientific and Engineering Conferences on the Status
and Prospects of Improvements in D-rift Operations in Coal Industry Enterprises
were held in the ~ities of Shakhty and Karaganda. Conference recommendations _
for improving thP structure of managing mine preparations, plannin~ of vol-
umes and the organization of labor and production and mechanization techno-
lo~ and facilities are being successfully introduced in the republic's
mir.es .
The rich traditions and the operatin~ experience of the front-rank collectives
together with the privileges and advantages for miners, along with the con-
tinued equipment updatirig of the industry, provide propitious opportunities
for high-productivity lab or, fuller use of reserves and on this basis, the
car�rying out of tasks placed before the republic's miners by the 25th CPSU
Congress on supplying the national econo~y with cheap and good-quality fuel.
L531-10123]
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Tekhnika", "Ugol' Ukrainy", 1979
10123
CSO: 1822 END
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