JPRS ID: 8903 WORLDWIDE REPORT NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT AND PROLIFERATION

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• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000200020005-2
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• Document Page Count: 70
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• Sequence Number: 5
• Content Type: REPORTS

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1 ~

~ NOVEIlgER i9T9 NO. ~04A i OF i
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- JPFiS 74510 -
- 2 November 1979
~ ~ rt =
N~ar East I~lorth Afr~cc~ Re o
p
No. 2040
- FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFOaMATION SERVICE
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,
NOTE
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Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets
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matior. was summarized or extracted. -
Untamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are
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Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an
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~ soz~z -i o,
REPORT DOCUMENTATION REVORT NO. 2. 3. ReciD~ent's ,4ccessio~ No.
PAr;E I JPRS ~4510
1. 7itlc and Subritle
5. Report Dale
_ NEAR EAST/NOR'!'Fi AFRICA ]tEPORT, No. 2040 2 November 1979
6.
_ 7. Author(s) 8. PeAorminQ Organfxation Rept. No
r 9. PeAorming Organization Name and Address I0. Project/Task/Wo~k Unit No.
Joint Publications Research Service
1000 North Gle.be Road 11. Coniract(C) o, Grant(G) No.
Ar].ington, Virginia 22201
cc~
12. Sponsoring Organization Name a~A Addresz 13. Type of Report 6 F'e~iod Covered
As above
~e. ~
15. Supptementnry Notes ~
1
16. nnccr,~t (Limit: 200 words ~
I
- This serial r�eport contains information on socioeconomic, government, political,
and technical developme~lts in the countries of tlie Near East and North Africa.
1~. Oocumunt Analysis a. Descriptors
Po].itical Science X Inter-Arab Af.fairs Libya Su].tanate
Sociolc~y h'orth African Mauritania of Oman
_ Lconom~.cs Affairs Morocco Syria
Culture (Social. x Afghanistan People's Demo- Tunisia
Scietzces) X Algeri.a cr.atic Republic United Arab
Etlulolo~y Bahrain of Yemen Emirates
Geopraphy Egypt Persian Gulf Western Sahara
Techological X Iran Area x Yemen Arab ~
Mi]iCary Sciences Iraq Qatar Republic
- x Israel x Saudi Arabia
.Tordan Spanish Norttl
x ~:uwait Africa
Lebanon Sudan ~
b. Idrntiliers/Opemcnded Terms '
c. COSATI Fialcl/Grcup .5v ~ SC ~ ~j~; ~ 15
18. ~v~itability Statrment 19. Security Class (Tlii~ Report) 21. No. o( Pages
Iinl.irniCecl f,vai.lability
UNCLt1SSIFIED 66
S o cl b y N'f I S - _ _ . . - - - .
5~1'.I 11fT,f 1C1C~ ~~1Tf;inia ~,~1.61 20. Security Class (This Page) 22, Pricc
UNCLA5SIi'I1.D ~
(Sec ANSI-739.10) See Instructlonf on Revcrse OPTIUNAL fOP.M 272 (A-71~
_ (Formcriy NTIS-35) -
- UepaRment of Cummei.:n
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_ JPRS 74510
2 November 19 79
NEAR EAST/P10RTH AFRICA REpORT
~
No. 2040
CONTENTS PAGE
INTER-ARAB AFFAIRS -
_ Israel Sa~.d To Lash Out When Threatened
(Edi~;orial; AL-Q~BAS, 19 Aug 79) 1
Abu Mazin Interviewr,d by Tunisian Journalists
(Abu Mazin Interview; AL-SABAH, 9 Sep 79) 3 -
'MAP' Reviews Moroccan Press on GZtizen Held in Mauritania, =
- Sahax~a Situation
(MAP, 23 Oct 79) 8 -
Palestine Ziberation Army Comma.~~der in Jordan Interviewed -
- (Nuhad Nus aybah; AL-~Q~4BAS, 26 Aug 79 ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ 10
APICORP Issues 1978 Annual Report
(Geoff Gardener; SAUDI BUSINESS, 19 Oct 79) 1L~
OAPEC Releases Statistics on Oil Prod�~:~tion =
(AL-QABAS, 19 Aug 79) 18
'AL-QABAS~ Corrmients on China's Economic Potential ~
(Editorial, ;a'id �Ilm-al'IYin; AL-QABAS, 27 Aug 79) . 20
_ AFGHANISTAN -
French Group Call s for Political Reform
(ZE MONDE, 6 Oct 79) 22
ALGERIA
Oppositionist I~eader Discusses Conditions in Algeria, Maghreb
(Bachir Boumaaza Interview; AI,-NAHAR AI,-'A,RABI
WA AI~-DL~TAZI, 30 Sep 79) 23
- a - [III - NE & R - 121]
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_ CC~JTENTS (Continued) Page
IRAN
~ Tehran's Maneuvers in Gulf Worry Arabs
(Carl Buchalla; SUEDDEUTSCHE ZEITUIIG, 27 Sep 79) 29
Explosions in Khuzestan Zinked to Naval Maneuvers
(ENQELAB-E ESLAMI, 6 Oct 79) 3l
Guards To Stay in Service
( Bahr. am Nourani; TEK_RA,N TINIES, 27 Sep 79 ) . . . . . . . ~ . 32
- Revolutionary Guards Get Separate Budget
(THE STATESMAN, 29 Sep 79) 33
- Revival of the National Officers Organization
(ETTELA~AT, 2 Sep 79) 35
Esfahan Refinery To Begin Operation in Two Months
(BAMDAD, l0 Oct 79) 36
Proj ect To Connect Iran With High Seas Via Volga River
(ETTELA'AT, 25 Sep 79) 37
Briefs
- Production, Sale of Pork Ban 39
Fearful Iranian Students in India 39
_ ISRAEL
Labor MK Discusses Negotiations With PLO
- (Moshe Shallal Interview; EL UNIVERSAL, 19 Sep 79) . 1~0
KU[~IAIT
~ Naval Corrunander Confirms Installation of New Navy Base
(Habib al-Mayyil Interview; AL-(Q1,~1BAS, 18 Aug 79) 43
SAUDI ARABIA
Comprehensive Manpower Planning Z'olicy Urged
(Nasr Muhammad al-Qarawi; SAUDI BUSINESS, 12 Oct 79) 50
Fcreign Workforce Estimates Released
(Timothy Sisley; ARAB N~WS, 13 Oct 79) 53
Briefs
Births NotPa 54
- b ~
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CONTENTS (Continueci) Page
YD~fEN ARAB REPUBI,IC
Worker Remittances Help, Hinder Economic Development
(James Buchan; SAUDI BUSINESS, 12 Oct 79) 55
Brief s
Cement Factory 63
-c-
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INTER-ARAB AFFAIRS
ISRAEL SAID TO LASH OUT WHEN THREATENED
Kuwait AL-QABAS in Arabic 19 Aug 79 p 1
- [Editorial: "Zionism Is on the Retreat and Israel Is in a Tight Spot, so
Let Us Be Vigilant"]
[Text] However much Zionism accomplishes in the way of influence, authority
and penetration, it cannot impose its hegemony over the world, and links
the world's interests with its own. The fierce Zionist impetuous thrust
- has begun to give rise to reactions against it. Anyone who studies indica-
tors certainly emerges with a conclusion that is not lost upon the leaders
of the Zionist movement.
Since Israel was established, Israel has gone on record in attaining two
peaks, a military peak in the June 1967 war and a political peak in the
peace treaty with Egypt in March 1979. Everything in Israel has begun to
fall to pieces quickly. Even its military superiority in the 67 war got
a huge shock in October 1973, and its political triumph at Camp David has,
- with great rapidity, begun to lose its gloss.
Domestic conditions in Israel are growing increasingly bad. Terrible infla-
tion has reached the highest level since the state was founded and is one
of the highest levels in the world if not the highest. Governmental manage-
ment is torn with graft and shady deals, including the army, and political
life is replete with bitter quarrels.
~ Abroad, Israel is suffering from severe international isolation and has
begun to lose the traditional source of sympathy it used to enjoy, particu-
larly in Europe. Europe today has perhaps begun to feel that it has done
enough to "atone" for the crimes of Nazism against the Jews, and feels that
- Israel cannot continue to blackmail the European countries forever, all
traces of World War II having been wiped out.
In fact, the Zionist movement in the United States has begun to feel severely
constrained because it can no longer achieve the easy domination it had in
- the past as the American arena is no longer open to it without conditions
- and difficulties, because the Palestinian voice has begun to be heard
1
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everywhere and in Amc~rica itself. The AnclrE~w Young case may be tangible
~~ruoC ol radical shiits in an imporlnnt political sector in the United
States. Wc, should t}~erefore not be surprised at the bitt~r tone of the state-
ments by Israeli offi.cials, because they have begun to feel as if they are in
a state of siege, thc~ most sensitive Zionist complex throughout history.
Every time Israel has been afflicted with thuse feelings, it has emerged with
a military strike aimed at the Arabs. We should not greatly discount this
probability in the t}iroes of our attempts to pierce Israel through political
action alone.
8389
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INTER-ARAB AFFAIRS
ABU rIAZIN INTERVIEWED BY TTJNISIAN JOURNALISTS
Tunis AL-SABAH in .Arabic 9 Sep 79 p 11
_ [Interview with Abu Mazin: "Interview With Abu Mazin by Journalists in
Tunisia: 'If Jews Were Given the Right of Self-Determination, Not One Jew -
Would Remain in Israel ]
_ [Text] Mr Abu Mazin, member of the Executive Committee of the PLO and
- chairman of ihe organization's delegation to the [Destourian] Party's
- Conference held a press conf~rence yesterday afternoon that was attended
by a group of local and foreign journalists. He answered different questions
that attending journalists asked him. These questions revolved around the
tragedy of South Lebanon; the possibility of forming a Palestinian government
in exile; the possibility af having a dialogue with the United States and
with Israel; the possibility of recognizing Israel and coexisti:~g with the
_ Jews; th~ role of the Arab League in helping the Palestinians regain their ~
usurped land; and the position of some European countries on the PLO at the
present circumstance. [Abu Mazin was also asked] to identify the Palestinian
question and the magnitude of Palestinian combat action on the occupied land.
[Question] The Saudi Arabian ambassador to Lebanon has stated that it is
- quite likely that an Arab summit debate will be held next Plovember to study ~
the situation in South Lebanon. Do you have knowledge about the possibility
of convening such a summit? If you do, where and when will it be held?
[Answer] I have no knowledge of this subject. I personally believe that
convening an Arab summit in the near future is unlikely and that it would
be difficult to achieve because this would require communications, consul- -
tations and preparations that the Arab countries would make. This has not -
yet happened.
[Question] What does the PLO think [must be done] to save South Lebanon
from its predicament?
,
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[Answer] [7'he nction of] ihniting t'ne fires of war in South Lebanon is
fome~ited by the United States. [The war breaks out in South LeUanon] then
- with the recommendation and encouragement of the U.S. administration which
is hoping thereby to exterminate all Palestinians and to paralyze their
guer[lla activit:Les.
We had some time [in ttie past] ceased all our military actions in South -
= Lebanon so that we would not be giving Israel an excuse to bomb the area. _
- But israEl ignored the matter and continued to direct its blows against
' South Lebanon in spite of the fact that UN troops are there. Only yesterday
Israel attacked these UN troops. �
[Question] How has the liberation organization received the invitation
extended by UN Secretary General Kurt Waldheim to convene an international
conference around the questions of the Middle East? -
[Answer] The organization welcomes any such invitation provided that
Resolution 242 not be the basis of discussien. This resolution considers -
the Palestinians mere refugees. _
[Question] Tahat do you think about the idea that the secretary general of
the Arab League has suggested--the idea that calls for entering into
negotiations with the Zionist enemy?
[~lnswer] I have not heard about this at all. I am saying that we accept
any proposal suggested to us to participate in a debate that would be
attended by all the parties concerned in the dispute. With regard to the ~
- Geneva debate, we said, "Send us an invitation, but not as refugees. We
~ will come to have discussions with all the countries including the Zionist
enemy.
But I want to emphasize here that we are not willing to enter into separate
negotiations with Israel.
[Question] The U.S. president has recently stated that the leaders of the
Arab countries were not convinced that a Palestinian state should be
established. No Arab leader had told him in the separate private meetings
[he had had with them] that he wanted an independent Palestinian state ~
established. [Carter said] that hp had spoken with Jordanian, Syrian, Saudi
and Egyptian leaders and that none of them had indicated a need for establishing
such a state. What is your opinion about this statement?
Ts the PLO thinking about forming a Yalestinian government in exile?
[Answer] We have become accustomed to the fact that Carter makes statements
and then retracts them. We do not believe in his statements because we think
they are claims and fabrications. There is no basis of truth to his statement
that Arab leaders are not calling for the establishment of a Falestinian _
~
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state. The purpose of this statement that he made recently was to deny !
the right of the Palestinians to create an independent state on tneir
occupied land. This is a right that Arab countries have declared they
were convinced of. As an example, let me mention that Jordan is openly
calling for the creation of this state.
The second question that pertains to the possibility of forming a Palestinian ~
government in exile was proposed to us many times and on many occasions.
Some Arab countries suggested that we form a government in exile. On our -
part we do not refuse the suggestion in principle, but we do not think that
the time has come to form such a government. As Iong as the PLO is recognized
as the sole official spokesman for the Palestinian people by more than 105
countries (at present about 110) and as long as it can attend the debates
and the meetings that take place on the international scene, we see no need
= for establishing a government in exile under the present circumstances.
[Question] President Hab ib Bourguiba has repeated in his speeches ~hat
solving the problem of the Middle East lies in ar.ceptance of the Partition
~ Resolution that was issued by the United Nations Orga^.ization in 1947.
Uoes your organization share the Tunisian president's c~pinion?
- ~ [Answer] Yes, we agree ;aith this opinion.
' [Question] Does not this contradict the positions of some parties?
[Answer] What are the parties to which you are referring saying? They are
- saying, "We want a free, independent Palestinian state. Some Arab countries
- are calling for the return of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, that is, the
return of one thi.rd or less of the occupied Arab land. The Partition
Resolution gives us 50 percent of this land.
e
[Question] Do the Palestinians accept coexistence with the Jews?
[Answer] The Palestinian state that we are hoping for is a gradual step towards
the establishment of peace in the area. There can be no peace unless zll
the parties live together under the protection of a democratic state.
_ 4lhen we talk about regarding our land and forming a state, we are not talking -
abaut throwing the Jews into the sea. There are Jews and there are Zionists;
~re are fighting only the Zionists. Those are the Jews who are being driven
by imperialist plans. As long as there is an aggressive, expansionist,
ra.cist, Zionist ideology, Jews may be considered victims of imperialism
b~cause they are serving the purpose of others. And here I borrow the words
of one of the Israeli j ournalists [who said], "We are [like] a sharp-toothed
watchdog that is tied to a chain held by the United States of America.
'The United States can release this dog whenever it wishes and against
whomever it wishes."
5
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(Question] Ho~,~ does your organization view the meetings that take place
- from time t:> time between U.S. officials and Palestinian of f icials?
_ [Answer] Arldrew Yoting, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations met witli
the PLO representative Zuhdi Labib al-Tarzi, and, as yoci know, the U.S.
administration punished Young by firing him. On our part, we see no
objections to meeting with Young or with any other U.S. citizen. This i~
evident and requires no proof. It is the United States that refuses to
talk with the PLO and not the reverse. -
_ Goldman had asked for a meeting with the brother Yasir 'Arafat, and then he
reconsidered [his request]. But then he came back, and he talked sensibly.
This is not strange considering that some Israelis have accepted reality.
Goldman does not represent only his own personal position, but he rather
' represents the position of 60 or 65 percent of the Jewish citizens. This
is an indication that the Palestinian question has not imposed its~lf
everywhere. ~
[Question] Did you have meetings with representatives of some of the
chairmen of the foreign delegations that came to attend the Tenth Conference �
of the D~si:ourian Socialist Party so you can inform them ab out the truth of
t:~e situation in the Middle East and def ine the Palestinian question to them? -
[Answt~r] Yes, I did tiave meetings with the representatives of the Belgian
and French delegations. They had a serious point of vi.ew which affirmed that
the parties they represented understood the Palestinian question. The Belgian
representative spoke to me about the terrorism in Europe, and I assured him
~ that the organization rejects action against any agency outside the occupied
land. I also had contacts with friendly delegations, and we exchanged =
points of view.
[Question] What are the PLO's expectations from the Arab League after its
- move to Tunisia?
[Answerj The Arab League, as is known, was established for the purpose of
defending the interests of the Arab nation in general and f or the purpose
oE liberat-ing occupied Palestine in particular. But this tool did not play
any role in the past in presenting the Palestinian question to the world
and to the Arab world, particularly through the media. It is its duty today
to present the question of Palestine in a neF~ image, in a suitable image,
~o that the world may become convinced of its justice. In order to achieve
this the league needs to form a special division called the Israel Division
so that everyone would know the truth about this enemy, especially since the
information that the league has about I~rael is less than what is desired.
6 ~
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'Phis actior~ is important and difficult. It is essential if we wsnt to know ~
the ~~roblems that our direct enemy faces. It is only in this way that we
can Eight him eFfectively.
[Question) Israel has recently published news in the Eur~pean press indicating .
that it loses more people in traff ic accidents than it does in the war with
the Arabs. lloes this mean that the combat power of the revolution is -
diminishing?
[Answer] There is no basis of truth for such a statement; it is a misleading
statement. Israel does not recognize the truth because it realizes that if
it were to do so, all. the Isr4elis would leave it. It is careful of
allaying the fears of the Jews, and it tries to make them believe that there
- is nothing to threaten their. peace and safety. -
With regard to imigration, for example, statistics indicate that between
= 20,000 and 25,000 Israelis emigrate from Israel every year. As far as the
kussian Jews are concerned, 70 percent of them do not go to Israel.
T personally believe that if ~the Jews were given the right of self-determination, '
not a single Jew would remain in Israel. It is unfortunate that 65 percent
of Israel's citizens are from the Arab countries. If the doors were opened
_ to them, they would return to their original homelands.
As our part, we will try to create an association that we will call the
- Association for Defending Jews.
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8592 ~
CSO: 4802
_ 7
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INTER-ARA$ AI'FAIRS -
rMAP~ REVIEWS MOROCCAN PRESS ON CITIZEN HELD I I
N MAURITANIA, SAHARA SITUATION
- LD231352 Rabat MAP in English 1243 GM'T 23 Oct 79 LD
[Press review]
[Text] Rabat, Oct 23 (MAP)--The Moroccan dailies devoted their commentaries
this Tuesday to the destiny of the Moroccan militant Mohamed Lamine who is
detained in Mauritania, and to the Soviet-Algerian talks on the Moroccan
Sahara. -
_ AL-6AYANE, publiahed by the Party for Progress and Socialism (PPS), stated -
that "the Mauritanian authorities imprisoned Mohamed Lamine Ould Hormatallah
Dlimi because he refused to back 'the Algiers agreements' concluded between
the Mauritanian leading team and the POLISARIO mercenaries. His detention -
is illegal and unjust".
~ "Mol~amed I,amine has only protested his Moroccanity, and his attachment to
the sacred cause of defending the national unity. The Mauritanian authori-
ties should have arrested and imprisoned all the Oued Ed-Dahab population
_ which strangly expressed its will to reintegrate the mother land when
Nouakchott began to renounce. This imprisonment tarnishes the Moroccan- _
Mauritanian relations because Mohamed Lamine is Moroccan, has struggled to
remain Moroccan, and refused to yield. As long as Mauritania proclaimed
- its neutrality, it must liberate this Moroccan citizen whose only guilt is
- to love his country, Morocco. So we strong~y claim the imanediate Iibera-
tion of Mohamed Lamine, well-known for his attachement to the Moroccan
nation", stated further the daily. ~
~
' About the Soviet-Algerian talks on the Moroccan Sahara, the Istiqlal Party's
daily L'OPINION wrote, "At the time when the Algerian authorities are
undertaking a propaganda to denounce the eventual supply of American wea-
_ pons to Morocco, talks are held in Moscow to examine 'the military situa-
tion in the Sahara', and therefore an increase of the Soviet aid to Algeria".
"By facing this war which is imposed on it, Morocco defends a just cause, _
and its right to territorial integrity, a notion that is strongly defended
by the socialist bloc", aclded the daily which wonders why the Soviet Union
8
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and its allies support the Algerian aggression, and supply Algeria with
arms and amunition, while they have always claimed the respect of the
sovereignty and the independence of states."
- L'OPINION added, "In fact, the Soviet attitude is incomprehensible, because
on one hand it strengthens its economic co-operation with Morocco (phos-
- phates, fi_shing, etc.,.) and on the other hand it puts at the disposal of 4
those who aggress Morocco the most murderous arms. The situation in the
Maghreb is explosive and the fact [that the USSR continues to] supply
Algeria with more and more sophisticated arms will only stir up its hege-
monist aims".
I
CSO: 4220
y
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r
INTER-ARAB.AFFAIRS
PALESTINE LIBERATION ARMY COMMANDER IN JORDAN INTERVIEWED
Kuwait AL-QABAS in Arabic 26 Aug 79 p 15
[Interview with Brigadier Nuhad Nusaybah by AL-QABAS Correspondent 'Abdallah
al-'Atum: "We Are Only a Part of the Organization, But We Have Requests"]
[Text] What are the opinions and judgments of Staff Brig Nuhad 'Ali Nusaybah -
- commander of the Palestinian Liberation Army in Jordan, and what is the
situation of this army?
In an interview with AL-QABAS Brig Nusaybah responded to questions on this
matter. Ttie Palestiriian Army was created with Arab unanimity on 9 October
1965. It was to carry out responsibilities that were endorsed in the
successive sessions of the Palestinian National Council and approved by the
Arab League, represented by what was then the unified Arab command."
The Respensibilities of the Army
The most important of these responsibilities are:
The Palestinian people were to be trained to fight in the different places
where they lived, and they were to be fused into the military melting pot
_ so that they could be ready and prepared to embark upon the battle of
liberation.
Everyone of our citizens who can carry arms was to be armed. This could
be done by forming reserve units and popular resistance units that strengthen
and support the regular army in battles. _
The armed resistance inside the occupied homeland was to be supported and
strengthened; leadership cadres and elements working against the occupation
were to be secured so that the armed struggle could c~ntinue and could be
escalated.
The Zionist enemy was to be opposed, and the places where our people live
- were to be defended as much as circumstances of their residence and their
relations with the host fraternal countries would permit.
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All tne ene,rgies of our people were to be utilized and put to use in the
process of achieving military preparedness and coordination with the fraternal
- Arrih lrmie,: clur~[ng the slageg of prepflring for. the war and WI1CI1 fighting
breaks out. The purpose of doing this is to achieve the best results in
_ the battles that our nation is waging against the enemies to achieve its
goals for liberation and unity.
Duties and the Role
[Questian] What a~e the duties of your army?
[Answer] Our army is committed by bilateral agraements to the armies of
the fraternal countries where our army is located. These agreements
guarantee control over the relationship [between our army and the army of
the host country] and cooperation with the brothers during the stages of
preparing for the battle and during the battles. Our course continues to
be governed by a spirit of fraternity and mutual confidence in the absence
- of agreements.
[Question] What is the role that you are playing now?
. [Answer] With the exception of the groups that are working in the occupied -
land--and they are modest--the Liberation Army is not doing anything more
- than what rhe fraternal Arab countries are doing.
The Nature of Relationships
[Question] What is the relationship between the PLO, the Palestinian -
Liberation Army and the Jordanian armed forces?
[Answer] We are part of the Palestinian Liberation Army, and there is no
relationship that may be described as such because, like any other army
organization in the world, we follow our command in every minor and major
detail.
- With the PLO, we are part of a part. The Palestinian Liberation Army is
part of the liberation organization. In fact, the army constitutes the
regular Palestinian armed forces; that is, the army is the military
establishment of the liberation organization. We are part of this army,
and this relationship may be viewed in this context.
But our relations with the Jordanian arTned forces go beyond relations that
exist among brothers.
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Where Do Salaries Come From?
[Question] Tidhere do the appropriations and the salaries for the army come
from?
_ [Answer] ? do not think that anyone is ignorant of the fact that since 7
January 1976 appropriations for the Palestinian Liberation Army have been
suspended by the officially authorized agency which is the National Palestinian
Fund. The organization's executive committee had issued a decision to that
effect at that time. ~
The Jordanian and the Syrian commands provided the needs of the army and -
prevented its dissolution and its expiration; and they are still paying
[the bills].
The Problem of Explosives
[Question] What do you think about the repeated attacks on the building of
the command of the P~ilestinian Liberation Army? (The third such incident had
occurred at the end of last month; an explosive package had exploded in the
outside fence of the building. )
[Answer] These are actions [to create] disturbances, and we pay no attention
~ to them. Regardless of the identity of the perpetrators, the net result of
tt~e operations that are directed against any target in the Arab countries or
~ a;~ainst any political or military figure is one that serves the interests of -
the Zionist enemy and no one else.
.
I-;ut what hurts is the fact that these operations target centers which
deliver huma:iitarian sarvices also, such as the late Ibrahim Abu Diyyah
Hospital which is affiliated with the Liberation Army. This hospital offers
therapeutic services to our people. In whose interest is an explosive
placed in this hospital as a result of which its window panes are broken?
Disagreement With the Organization -
- [Question] What about the matter of the disagreement [that you have] with
the PLO? What are the reasons for it?
[Answer] I object to the way you phrased that question. [The situation] here
is not one of two parties, with us being one party and ~he organization being
the other. We are only part of the organization, but there are requests
which the liberation army command presented to the organization's executive
committee. These requests are:
Expanding the army and modernizing its weapons;
Earmarking a budget for this army; and
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Making a commitmant to the stipulations of the Palestinian National Charter.
I do not concede that there is anything in these demands that is not
justified.
The Autonomy Project
[Question] What is your opinion of autonomy ~n the West Bank?
[Answer] Our people have turned down this conspiracy and have given its
' leaders, the parties of Camp David, a decisive answer. The response did
- not consist of words, but rather actions. These parties were not able to
- find any one of our people who would accept carrying this conspiracy through.
[Question] What about the ongoing political communications and meetings?
[Answer] Political action must be given the opportunity to establish just
- and honorable peaceful solutions provided that this [political action]
. proceed on a course parallel to the mobilization and the preparations for
military action. We are f irmly convinced that our enemy will not retreat
voluntarily from one inch of our land.
We must therefore welcome any political initiative or effort whose purpose
is to astablish a solution provided that such initiative or effort be in the
context of UN resolutions and those resolutions that were endorsed unanimously
by the international community.
~ ~ ~ ; ~ r:,~
~
( a ~ ~ ~ ~,r
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; ~ ; i ,
~ ~ ~ y ~ ~ ~ .
t
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~ ' x
s i ' { s ~
~ f ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ .
s '
.
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1 gy, . .~I~ II I I I
.
?
Brigadier Nuhad Nusaybah, on the left, speaks with the correspondent of
- AL-QABAS.
8592
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INTER-AR.AB AFFAIRS
APICORP ISSUES 1978 ANNUAL REPORT
Jiddah SAUDI BUSINESS in English 19 Oct 79 pp 19-20
[Article by Geoff C;ardener]
[Text]
~he 1978 annual report of the Arab assets) in 1978, as upposed to SR
Petroleum Investiments Corporation million (19.7 per cent of net assets) in
(.~1PICORP) shows considerable pro~- 1977.
" ress in the move to invest Arab mone~~ in '~e corporation was founded with the
downstream Arab petroleum projects. 10 OAPEC governments as sharehol-
The growth of APICORP, which w�as ders. Saudi Arabia, the United Arae
established in November 1975, has been Emirates and Kuwait each hold 17 per
as tremendous as that of the environ- cent; Libya has 15 per cent, Iraq ara
ment it serves. Qatar 10 per cent each; Algeria has ~ pe r
1fie corporation had contributed to cent; Bahrain, Syria, and Egypt (whose
management and underwriting of loans membership is suspended) have 3 per
and project-linked bond issues totaline S ~nt each.
1.75 billion by the end of 1978, com- Paid-up capital of SR 1.2 billion added
pared to $ 234 million in 1976, the first to accumulated reserves of SR 146 mil-
- year of operatiun. lion gives APICORP total resources uf
Other figures in the report show that SR 1.346 billion.
not assets increased by $ 19 million, On average, 80 per cent of
equivalent to the net profit for the year. A PICORP� s participation in loans an:i
These profits, which the shareholdins ~nds in 1976-78 went for downstream
governments left with the corporation. Petroleum processing projects, while the
were above expectations and in spite of remainder went for other oil-related
the decline of the dollar, according to Projects, according to the report. Durin;
'~Iufid Rashid 'Vlirza, acting general 1978, the corporation managed, co-
manager of APICORP. managed and arranged project-linke~i
"We were expecting our profit to be loans and bond issues totaling$ 896 mil-
less (because of the decline of the dol- 1ion, 31 per cent more than in 1977, and
lar)," Mirza said. "But we managed to 74 per cent more than 1976.
reduce our losses by going into other APICORP's underwriting commit-
cunencies: ' ment in 1978 was $ 109.2 million, equi-
Another indicator of growth is that valent to 12 per cent of the totai value of
project-relate~i investments amounted ~oans and bond issues.
to SR 403 million (31 per cent of net The gas gathering and liquefaction
sector of the oil industry received the
. 14
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J
TOTAL LOANS AND PROJECT-LINI4ED BOND ISSUES
1976-78 in US $ Million
o Underwriting Commitment ~
~n vi
_ N ~
~ N
_ ~p v~
C V O
O
.U ~ ~ N ~
. w .C N ~ ~
~ Q N ~ O
~ ` ~ y ~
4. Cp
a a . e N C O
~ y c ~ ~ c~
c w F' ~ ~ a,o
a ~
~ y
1 ~ ,0 ~
_ ~ p. y O
v o0
72.7 17.7 26.3 36.0 26.3 23.5 5.0
greatest percentage of loans and bond Natural Gas Project (LNG II). The $
issues with 47.5 per cent. Next was pet- ~ 3.06 billion project has a capacity of 1 U.5
roch~micais (19.5 per cent), tankers (6 billion cubic meters and will be on
per cent), Oil refineries (10.5 per cent) stream in 1980. The corporation played '
fertilizers (14.5 per cent), and opera- a similar role in the financing of the first
tians related to oil production two per LNG project in 1977.
~ cent, according to th~~ report. Other projects financed in 1978
APICORP's largcst investment in include:
1978 N~as for the Jc~rdanian Ferti(izer * Equity and debt ~nancing for the $
Project, a$ 43(1 milli~~n project, accord- 95 million gas-gathering and liquefac-
- ing to the World Bank. The corporation tion project in Bahrain ( BANA(.UAS).
loaned $ 20 million to the project and APICORP acted as co-lead manager for
bought 10 per ccnt of ihe equity. Produc- the $ 60 million loan and ha~ a 12.5 per
tion is scheduled to begin in 1981. The cent equity share in BANAGAS. 1'he
project will process I.3 million tons of Project will produce ISO,U00 tons of
phosphate rock annually. Annual pro- LPG and 100,000 tons of natural
duction of di-ammonium phosphate will gasoline per year for export. Construc-
be 740,000 tons, and a surplus of tion will be completed in the next two
105,000 tons of phosphoric acid will be months, according to '~Iina.
exported. * APICORP participated in the man-
APICORP�s smallest loan in 1978 was agement group of a$ 50 rrillion floating
$ 3.5 million to SOIVATRACH, the rate loan to the Abu Dhabi Gas
Algerian state oil and gas company. Liquefaction Company. Capacity of the
APICORP was one ot the leaci managers project is 2 million tons of LNG and one
of the$ 250 million lo:~n for thc financing million tons of LPG per year. Total cost
~ of the sccond Alr;erian Liquefied ~S ~ 500 million.
_ 15
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I
~ * Oman's \~~u~mul uilfielJ. In l'unisia, the
Pctr~ichcmical I~~~in~ cunsistc~l c~f par- ~~rportttion will m~inag~ a$4l) million
- ticipati~in in the management gruup fcira ~re~iit to kre;p up uiffic:lel pres~urr anci
$ 175 tloating rare loan tc~ the Qatar Pet- w~U also p~+rticipatc in sctting up a 2.5
_ rochemical Cumpany ati part of the$ 630 million-ton per year ~lom~stic refinery at
millior~ tutail cost. Pro~lucti~~n capacities ~iZtrtc. Tcital cust is $?jO milliun. Thc
arc "?!il),IlO0 tuns fur ethylene ancl largest prc~ject agreecl by APICOkP in
140,OOU tons for law clensity ~'1dY was to lead manage a$50O million -
polyethylene. loan for SONATRACH to develop gas
* APIC'ORP participatr.~l in the man- fielrls~and explore for gas. _
agement of twu b~~ncl issu~s of SR 50 A~though few figures are available for -
million ancl I l) milliun kuw;iiti ~inars far future projects, the ~nnuxl repc~rt listeci
the Algerian Natinnal Company for several joint Arah projects uncier study '
- Navigation tc~ financc a program for a ~nd construction. They inclu~le:
specializ~d fleet of tankers to transport * A joint drilling contract pruject to -
LNG and LPG. operate in the Arab uil secte~r.
* Oil refinery projects included par- APICOIZP is co-operating with the Arab
ticipation in the management group for a Petroleum Services Company tor the
- $7U million floating rate loan refinancing pan-Arab project, which is already
for the Jorcian Petroleum Refinery underway. Three drilling rigs have been
Cc~mpany. The loan will finance the third bought and will be delivered this y~ar.
extension of the r~finery. Total cost is Negotiations are going on for a foreign
- $174 million. The corporation acted as partner.
co-mananger for a KD 7 million bond * The manufacture of catalysts is under -
issue for `lorocco to finance a second study. A first study has determined the
refinery with a capacity of 3.5 million size of the Arab markets and ideatified
tons pcr year. Cost is$17O million, and two major catalyst groups: Ammonia-
production began ~it the end of 1978. related and refinery-related catalysts.
* Operations related to c~il production Total cost of construction will be from
included participatipn by APICORP as $15 to 20 million. Capacity will be -
one of the managcrs of uncil.
The guards, whose leaders are named by the council and whose numbers are
kept secret, have been one source of friction, between the council and
the Prime Minister, Mr Mehdi Bazargan's Government.
- Earlier this week, Mr Bazargan said in a radio address that though the
Government was "sole source of authority," prablems remained owing to
- "excessive meddling in State affairs." ~
The guards, however, played a key role in the Government's drive to
- crush the recent rebellion in Kurdistan.
Mr Yousee Forutan, one of the seven Pasdaran leaders under the overall -
command of Mr Javad Mansuri, described the work of the guards in Kurdis-
tan as one involving civilian and military tasks.
Training, which can last from one to six months', is undertaken by offi-
cers and other experienced people. The training is ideological, his-
- torical, religious and military.
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~ir Forutan said relations between the guards and the regular Iranian
Army were based on the fact that they were two separate bodies. Colla-
boration toolc place at Commander level. ,
The gua rds are not paid for their services, but each is given a gift of
money based on his needs and not his rank. The gifts range from 25,000
_ ria.ls (about $312) a month to 60,U00 rials (about $750).
The main qualification for selection is faith--faith in Ayatollah
Khomeini and faith in the Islamic revolution.
The guarcl was establ:ished throughout Iran "even in the most removed
vi113ges" and training centres were set up in the main towns so that
rein~o rcements could be sent to any place at a moment's notice.
Former members of the Revolutionary Khomeini committees were among the
guard's ranks, Mr Forutan sair~.
The guard's motto, which is displayed on the uniform, is "to oppose the
(revolution's) enemies, you must gather together all your strength."
The uniLOrm, olive green in Teheran, consists of anything f rom Army
uniform to jeans outside the capital.
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~ ~
~
IRAN
REVIVAL Or THE NATIOr1AL OFFICERS ORGANIZATION
Tehran ETTELA'AT in Yersian 2 Sep 79 pp 1, 2
[ accerptJ The newspaper, ETTEHAD-E BOZORG, the organ of the Hezb-e -
' Mellat-e Iran [Iranian Nation Party], reported that the Sazman-e Afsaran-e -
' Melli [Organization of Nationalist Officers] has announced its reestablish-
ment. Expanding on this information it reports the following:
_ Beginning in 1951 a number of officers joined togeth~r in support of the
principles of the Iranian Nationalist Movement led by Dr Moha~nad Mosaddeq.
They sought fundanenta~ changes in the structure of the army, its libera-
tion from submi_ssion to personal leadership, and the practical reinforcing
of the movement. They declared their existence under the title of SAM,
_ which was an abbreviation for Sazman-e Artesh-e Melli [Organization of the
National Military].
CSO: 4906 ~
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IRAN
ESFAHAN REFINERY TO BEGIN OPERATION IN TWO I~IONTHS ~
Tehran BAMDAD in Persian J_0 Oct 79 p 14
[Text] The capacity of the first and second refineries in Esfahan will
- total 200,000 barrels of oil per day. One billion dollars has been spent
on the [first] refinery.
.
The first refinery in Esfahan whose capacity is 100,000 barrels per day and
- which is the seond in level of production will begin production in 2 months.
Engineer Mir Azimi, manager of the Esfahan Refinery, on announcing the
_ matter said: In the first stage, this refinery will begin production with
70,000 barrels of oil a day, including liquid gas, super and regular gasoline, -
kerosene, diesel oil, fuel oil, and tar; and in a short time, its capacity
will reach a final limit of 100,000 barrels per day.
Tlie manager of the Esfahan Refinery added tfiat the second Esfahan Refinery,
to be builr beside the first, will begin production 6 months after the
first refinery and that after botfi are in production these Esfahan refineries
_ will have a total capacity of 200,000 barrels of oil output per day.
_ The manager of the Esfahan Refinery pointed out that this refinery, after
the Abadah Refinery, will be the second [largest] refinery with a capacity -
on the order of the Tehran Refinery. It cost $1 billion which, due to
- world-~oide inflation, exceeded the cost of the Tehran Refinery. At its
final stage of operation it will have 1,050 engineers, technicians, and
caorkers .
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~
~ 36 -
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, IRAN '
_ PROJECT TO CONNECT IRAN WITH HIGH SEAS VIA VOLGA RIYER
- Tehran ETTELA'AT in Persian 25 Sep 79 pp l, 14
[TextJ Within the framework of the expansion of political and economic
_ relations between Iran and the Soviet Union, Dr Mohammad Makri, Envoy of
the Islamic Republic of Iran to the Soviet Union, has conceived a project
- on the basis of which Iran will be able to get access, via Volga River
(situated in the Soviet Union}, to the Black Sea and from there to the
Mediterranean Sea. Dr Mohammad Makri discussed this project in a special
interview accorded to the political reporter of ETTELA'AT.
If this project were to be realized, Iran would be able, with the use of
a joint shipping organization of Iran and the Soviet Union, to transport
its goods, via Caspian Sea, Volga River and Black Sea, to the European
. countries and Northern Africa, and via the Straits of Gibraltar, to get
also access to the high seas of the Atlantic.
In case of the implementation of this project through the agreement with
the Soviet Union, Iran thereby would gain millions and even billions of rials,
while the Soviet Union will also benefit,since the project envisions
like~vise the transit duties for the Soviet Union.
The Iranian Envoy to the Soviet Union, who apparently presented this project
to the higher Soviet authorities, said: "This project will be a step toward
a close cooperation between Iran and the Soviet Union and will affirm a
tangible and practical friendship between both countries and promote
cooperation beyond the stage of talk and diplomatic ceremonies."
Makri added: "Such a project may at first surprise the Soviet authorities,
but if subjected to a careful study it will show that it could strengthen
the friendship and neighborly relations between Iran and the Soviet Union.
The project is such that it not only does accord with sound economic relations
but it also shows good understanding and a deeper perception of equal
positions of both countries in economic exchanges. This, on the other hand,
requires the expansion and strengthening of a political relationship based
upon the observance of independence and sovereibnty of both countries."
The Envoy also said: "This is a special geographical situation in which
only Iran and the Soviet Union can have this kind of cooperation." ~
37 -
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ln tiiis specia:, interview with the reporter of ETTELA'AT, Dr Makri also -
spok~~ of the present climate governing political relations between Iran
and the Soviet Union. Makri stated: "As I perceive, the Soviet Union is
not s colonialist and exploiter state. No doubt, they understand, the
position of our revo]ution. Iran has no intention to interfere in internal
affaLrs of the Soviet Union." Makri pointed out that he believes that
although strong Islamic moral and intellectual attitudes are widespread _
among the Moslems of the Soviet Union, the Soviet Moslems are a part of .
the community of the Soviet peoples and one should not interf ere in their
internal affairs. The friendship of Iran toward Soviet Moslems should
lie within the framework of the friendship with the Soviet Union.
Speaking of the price. of gas exported to the Soviet Union, Makri said:
"We want this price to be increased and attain the 1eve1 of international
prices, and the difference to be calculated and be retroactive to the
beginning of our revolution.
On the subject of the second gas pipeline, Makri stated: "We might reach
an agreement with the Soviet Union." An he added: "We are not dogmatists.
It is possible that one day our interests will require that we enter into .
negotiations. We are free agents. We have no obligation, and therefore
we need more time to study the situation. Perhaps the experts will decide
to leave the gas in its deposits for future ge:~erations. Maybe we will
find more prof itable ways for its use in our country." -
1U15
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IRAN
- BRIEFS
PRODUCTION, SALE OF PORK BAN--Teheran, Oct 9--Iranian religious authori-
ties issued an order yesterday banning the production and :;ale of pork,
considered by riuslims as unclean, and said offenders would be punished,
reports Reuter. An order signed by Hojatoleslam Amrollahi, head of the _
guild courts which regulate trade and prices, said inspectors would be
sent to sausage factories to make sure pork was not used. Livestock
farmers would no longer be allowed to sell their pork. Between 100 and '
130 carcasses were previously delivered to sausage factories, mainly by
- Armenian Christian pig raisers. [Text] [Calcutta THE STATESMAN in -
Fnglish 10 Oct 79 p 12]
FEARFUL IRANIAI~I STUDENTS IN INDIA--Oct S--Iranian students in India live
in fear of trie new Teheran regime's secret agents, who have said that those
opposing the Islamic Government would be "liquidated." A group of stu- -
_ dents, representing the Al1-India lranian Students' Association, said
that an article in a magazine, published recently by students belonging
to the pro-Ayatollah Khomeini group, contended that one of the three
main duties of the country's students was to "expose the names'of those
working against the Islamic regime, so thataction could be taken against
them when they went back to Iran." [Text] [Calcutta THE STATESMAN in
English 6 Oct 79 p 3]
0
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ISRAEL
LABOA MK DISCUSSES NEGOTIt~iTIONS WITH PLO
Caracas EL UNIVERSAL in Spanish 19 Sep 79 p 1-26
[Report of 18 September interview with Moshe Shahal, Labor Party member
of the Knesset, by Mariahe Pabon: "Moshe Shahal: 'If Arafat Changes,
We Are Prepared to Talk Directly Across the Conference Table
[Text] The Palestine Liberation Organization [PLO] and the Palestinian
National Council, attending the 66th Interparliamentary Conference--the
first as delegates and the second as observers--both argued insistently
that Israel has not the least intention of returning any occupied lands
to Palesti.ne and that, on the contrary, with the Camp David agreement it
is sounding the call to battle.
Moshe Shahal, opposition party member of the Knesset under the present
Israeli government, said, with reference to the PLO, that this organization
is trying to carry on a permanent aggression against his country while
casting it in the role of the destroyer.
~
The position of my Labor Party is to reach an agreement on the solution
of the Palestine problem, without loss to the Israeli State's integrity."
[Question~ "The PLO asserts that the Camp David agreement is a war banner
and that Israeli citizens are now being permitted to buy land on the West
Bank of the Jordan and in the Gaza Strip. Is that tru.~`:"
[Answer] "It is not true. The Camp David agreement clearly says that
'after a period of 5 years the Palestinian inhabitants will have their
autonomy.' The Palestinians will then have the lawful right to take part
in decisions to build their future. The PLO declaration is a cover for
their refusal to accept clauses 242 and 338 of the agreement, which provide
for a peaceful solution."
- [Quescion] "The Palestinian National Council affirms that Israel divided
the Palestinians into three groups and then uprooted the last of them during
the last war. Is that a correct assessment?"
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[Answer] "First of all, the majority live on the West Bank, and in Gaza
- more than 60 percent of the Jordanians come from Palestine, because Jordan
was the part called the Falestinian area. We believe the Palestinians who -
live in Gaza and the West Bank are entitled to their own representatives
in talks. The Palestinian refugees can return to Gaza and the West Bank."
[Question] "Return to territories occupied by Israeli troops?"
[Aiiswer] "1fi ey are being occupied for our security. I think Israel and
all the Palestinian Arabs must commit themselves. Up to this moment,
Israel has absorbed 850,000 refugees from Arab countries. I, myself,
came f.rom an Arab country as a refugee; I understand the problem; I am
receptive to a solution. We need our security and we also want the
perpetuation of Israel as a state." -
[Question] "You ignore the PLO accusing it of being a terrorist organization."
[Answer] "The stat~~ment of principles on which it is founded reiterates that
it seeks to destroy Israel. I stated in my speech before the Parliamentary
Congress--and it was a most moderate speech--that we desire to establish a
dialog with Palestinian leaders."
[Question] "Cou1d Arafat be among those leaders?"
[Answer] "If he desires peace, we will talk with him. If he changes his
attitude, we too will change ours. Zfi ey must declare and recognize Israel
as a state. Until now it has been impossible to meet."
Moshe Shahal recalled that 2 months ago the Austrian Chancellor acted as
mediator tor a possible settlement, but that Arafat refused to change his _
stance.
"Anyone seeking to talk with us must accept the rules of a change in attitude
_ a nd of not holding Israel as an object of destruction."
T asked Moshe Shahal, a man identified as a progressive and dedicated to the
achievement of a less unjust society, what he thought of the reports
concerning the sale of arms by Israel to dictatorial countries. I asked
him specifically about the case of Nicaragua and the sale of arms to former
dictator Somoza.
[Answer) "Israel, at governmental level, explained this matter to the
Sandinists and as far as I know those explanations were satisfactory. At
the political party level, we are engaged in talks with Nicaragua to offer
it technical and agricultural aid, which must be our aim, i do not believe
we should export arms; we must export technology."
(Question] "What disagreements exist between your party and the Begin -
government?"
L~1 -
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[Answer) "We have and maintain different attitudes on foreign policy and
on the soiuCion of the problems of the Middle East. In the matter of
securing our boundaries, we advocate a territorial compromise involving
the return of most of the occupied lands to the Palestinians."
Most calmly, Shahal expressed the view that leading roles played by third
parties could hamper talks and did not exclude the notion that "we talk
directly across the conference table.
- "The Arabs want peace, we want peace. The majority of the people will make
many concessions to achieve that peace."
[Question] "Ideologically speaking, do you think Israel is pursuing an
ideal cou rse?"
[Ans~aer] "We believe our ideology is more correct than that of the present
government and we recognize the fact +:hat our society is a working and
noble one. I am confident we will win the elections because we seek social
changes; we seek a more solialist world.!'~~
Shahal is an Iraqi refugee (Baghdad) and for this reason speaks with
authority about the Palestinian problem and about a solution that is not
responsive to extremist viewpoints.
The Israeli Labor Party parliamentarian took part in almost every session,
interl-upting any delegate who spoke disparagingly oF Israel. With the
help of Nelson Bocaranda, we interviewed him during the recess of yesterday's
_ session, which addressed programs of cooperation in educational matters.
These are of interest to him and his party.
9399
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~ KUWAIT
NAVAL COMM~INDER CONFIRMS INSTALLATION OF NEW NA~IY BASE
Kuwait AL-QABAS in Arabic 18 Aug 79 p 5
[Interview with the cominander of the Kuwaiti Navy, Captain Habib al-Mayyil,
by H.usayn 'Abd-al-Rahman]
[Text] The commander of the Kuwaiti Navy, Staff Captain Hab ib al-Mayyil,
stated that intensive work is underway on the installations of the new navy
base and that the first state of the huge project, involving 40 percent of
the base installations, has been completed.
He added, during his first press interview, that he will as sume command of
and inaugurate the new base in early 1981.
Captain al-Mayyil said that Kuwait is working to diversify its sources of
naval weaponry and to strengthen the navy with modern units equipped with
_ the latest in electronic and navigational equipment for operation in the
Gulf. He stressed that the supplier countries have placed no restrictions
on k;uwait's right co use these weapons as it wishes under i ts own free will,
particularly since the arms deals are concluded directly wi ththe supplying
countries with no third parties involved.
The commander of the navy added that Kuwaiti cadets and off i cers are now
being trained in several sister Arab and friendly foreign countries. He
said that they have shown a high degree of skill during the training and a
marked ability to absorb lessons in command and oparation of modern naval
units.
He went on to say that some conscripts would be attached to the navy after
completion of the naval base installations.
Captain al-Mayyil praised Gulf cooperation in maritime affai rs and said
that Gulf naval units are constantly exchanging visits, and that there are
common refueling facilities and cooperation of all sorts.
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The naval ~ommander said that from a technical navy standpoint, the Straits
of F'ormuz .r_annot be blocked by sinking one or two oil tankers because the
water re~~cl~es ~z depth of up to 250 feet in this area and its narrowe5t -
wicltli is nn less tllan 27 nauticaT mlles. However, he ~ddrd tl~~it th~~rr rir~~
other, "military" ways by which navigation can be shut off in the straits.
Character of the Fleet
At the outset of the interview, Captain Habib al-Mayyil stressed th~t a
naval fleet is to be considered one of the basic guarantees for the security
and military strength of any country. He stated tht this will continue to
be true as long as ships are the best means to move large numbers of inen
and materiel across seas and oceans.
In certain instances, one country with no fleet can prevent the enemy from
using the sea in a conflict, but in this circumstance it cannot be said that -
this country has sovereignty over the sea. This naval sovereignty does not
imply preventing the enemy from using the sea, but it does mean that this
country can use the sea whenever it so wishes.
Captain Habib al-Mayyil added that a fleet must fit the needs of each
- country, as these needs vary greatly from one country to another given their
requiremen~s, geographic locations and objectives. All these factors will
determine the character of each country's fleet and naval units. The Ameri-
can fleet, for example, because of its extensive presence in the Atlantic -
and Pacific oceans, ~s designed for wideranging ocean warfare through reliance -
- on large units and a naval strike force represented in aircraft carriers,
destr.oyers, heavy cr.uisers and submarines:~ ~ - -
Eit the same time, the fleets of the Mediterranean countries, for example,
rely~ on destroyers, torpedo launches, submarines and rescue vessels, and
are designed specifically for short-range naval operations.
Naval Strategy
Captain al-Mayyil said that all this was taken into consideration in the
structure of the Kuwaiti Navy in line with Kuwait's location, needs and
coastlines. All this was taken into account as well in drafting Kuwait's
naval strategy.
He added Chat strategy does not mean war; rather in its narrowest definition
- it i.s "th~ art of military command" or the art of management and.guidance
of battles. ~fi differs from tactics which involve the art of using troops
and s~.ii,~ in eombat. Strategy not only comprises ideas.or plans laid down -
in tir~e ~f war but is a plan or set of plans preceding war and in prepara-
" tion for it and paving the way for battle or anticipatPd or probable battles.
To define it more clearly, strategy is the overall use of the administration
of warfare an.d i.ts equipment to achieve the goal for which it was drafted.
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Captain al-Mayyil stated that one could say that the primary duties falling
on the shoulders of any navy are to guard merchant ships, to take part in
military operations with air and ground forces, to establish naval blockades
on the coastlines of the enemy, to carry out patrol duties, to engage the
ships of the enemy and to participate in an overall plan to defend and se-
cure its bases and to discover and sweep mines planted by enemy ships.
= Training of Cadets and Officers
[Question] What steps have been taken so far in establishing and strength- -
ening the Kuwaiti Navy and establishing the new naval base?
[Answer] Before responding to this question, I would like to say that a
naval base is a training or supply center, or as strategists prefer to put
it, "a focal point," and it performs two functions for the fleet, training _
and supply.
Since establishment of the Kuwaiti Navy, work has been underway to construct
the naval base which will contain all necessary facilities for anchoring
military vessels of various sizes and for the special maintenance facilities
required by these ships, and work has been underway on building the necessary
_ facilities to provide the best possible services to the ships.
A plan has also been prepared to establish the first nucleus and basic
cadre of manpower to operate these ships by training men of all ranks on -
- the various naval specialties needed by the navy. The trainfng is being
done in sister Arab and friendly countries. Also some local classes have
been included to qualify personnel to assume the duties to which they will
be assigned over and above sugervision of operations at the naval base and
operation of the ships.
Inauguration of the Base in 1981 _
[Question] When will construction of the naval base be completed?
[Ans~aer] The fact is that construction of the base is being done in stages.
The first stage is done. This stage is the major stage constituting 40
percent of the base, and includes: the docks, piers and eq:iipment to raise
the ships, launches and minesweepers. Over the next 2 years, we will com-
plete the other stages, which include technical installations, administrative _
organizations and training operations for preparing personnel of all ranks
to operate the base. We will take over the base in early 1981.
~ [Question] Is there any intention to establish a naval college in Kuwait _
to prepare Kuwaiti and Gulf cadets?
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[Answer] E1 study has been pxepared by the Ministry of Education on estab-
lishing a naval institute that could be the nucleus of a merchant marine
academy. The Ministry of Defense and other quarters concerned took part .
in these studies and expressed willingness to render actual assistance in
setting up the curricula and training programs and providing advice and
- expertise. ~
With regard to training Kuwaiti cadets and officers, our training policy is
based on sending cadets and officers of various ranks to sister Arab and
friendly foreign countries to qualify as combat and technical naval officers.
Several batches of officer cadets and personnel have been sent abroad for
naval training.
Diversification of Arms Sources
_ [Question] To what extent has the Kuwaiti Navy been suppliel with arms,
and have the sources of these arms been diversified or are they coming from
- one country?
[Answ~:.r] The fact is that..we .are always. working to:.improve the navy.
Studie:.~ are being done on bids submitted by friendly countries for supplying
the Kuw�iti Navy with its needs for various ships and launches equipped with
all the r;ecessary weapons and equipment.
We certainly always take into consideration diversifying the sources of these
arms, and have taken care to select advanced weapons outfitted with the lat-
est equipment and electronic hardware which is compatible with the conditions
of the area and the waters ot the Arab Gulf. We will study these bids and
select the arms and naval units with no preconditions, and we will have com-
plete freedom in employing them. Furthermore, we are working with the sup-
plier countries directly with no third parties involved.
Gulf Facilities
[Question] What are the parameters and specific characteristics of Gulf and
Arab coo.peration in military naval affairs?
- [Answer] The fact is that the countries of the Gulf are tamous for their
nature as maritime countries with a long maritime history. They began some
timE ago to improve their navies and to diversify their sources of arms.
There is close cooperation among the countries~of the Arab Gulf for develop-
ment of their naval forces, and there is coordination in joint operations
and mutual consultations besides exchanges of visits of naval units.
Also the countries oF the Gulf provide us with all possible naval facilities
and help in overcoming any difficulties encountered by any naval unit. They
also refuel our ships. This means that there is close and mutual coopera-
tion among the countries of the region in this sphere. Many ships and
launches of the Gulf countries visit Kuwaiti ports from time to time.
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Interest on the Part of Kuwaiti Youth
[Question] How much interest have Kuwaiti young men shown in enlisting in
the Kuwaiti Navy, and are there specific prerequisites for accepting them
in the navy?
[Answer] There is high interest among Kuwaiti youth in enlisting in the
~ navy.
We have sent them abroad in groups to train in various naval specialities.
- For officers the prerequisites for enlistment in the navy require that
_ the applicant be a Kuwaiti national, hold a general secondary certificate
(scientific section), be in good health, and be not less than 17 and of
- good charac:ter. With regard to prerequisites for acceptance of enlisted
personnel, they fall into two categories, technicians and seamen. For tech-
nicians, the applicant must have attained the intermediate fourth class or
higher, be a Kuwaiti national and be not less than 17 years old.
The other administrative category can take persons who have attained the
first intermediate class or higher. Graduates of the industrial college,
such as engineers, can be accepted withthe understanding that they will
complete their studies at the technological institute and graduate as tech-
- nical officers and then be sent abroad for study in naval operations, each
accordin~ to his specialty.
- Skills in Training
[Question] How well have Kuwaiti youth been able to absorb lessons in com-
mand and opzration of modern naval units?
[Answer] The fact is that they have been able to absorb these lessons very
skillfully. It makes us proud to hear officials in friendly countries who
_ oversee the training of Kuwaiti Naval officers tell us that they have sensed
a high level of performance and a noticeable ability to comprehend. They
have successfully handled naval units with the same skill demonstrated by
officers of these countries.
By way of inentioning skills, I was visiting a country where Kuwaiti Naval
officers are training on naval units, and a commander there praised how
proficient the officers were in naval affairs and how capable they were in
commanding naval units.
Conscripts
[Question] Will conscripts be permitted to join the navy?
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[An~wer] i;ons~ripts will be allowed L-o ~join the navy when construction of -
the naval base i.s completed and housing facilities are completed, not to
mention the arrival of naval units.
[Question] To what extent will the navy play its role in protecting the
many Kuwaiti islands?
[Answer] The goal of any naval force is to assert the presence of the state,
to protect its territorial waters, to preserve its sovereignty over iis
territory and resources and to protect its merchant fleet.
The Kuwaiti islands are an indivisible part of Kuwaiti territory, and the
navy's mission is to defend and protect them. However, the Coast Guard is
currently performing watch and patrol duties for these islands. In the
future, guarding these islands will fall within the responsibilities of the
navy.
[Question] Will Kuwait use Arab and foreign experts in naval affairs? -
[Answer] The naval Uase is viewed as a major, vital project, and in its
facilities we wi11 have to use experts who have a lot of knowhow in the
Eield of constructing bases and supervising the installation of equipment.
We are currently using a small number of experts from friendly countries
to supervise the stages of construction of the naval base. Their job will
end with cumpletion of the base project, whereupon Kuwaitis will take over
the responsibility for running it.
The Straits of Hormuz
[Question] From a purely technical naval standpoint, can the Straits of
Hormuz in fact be blocked by sinking a ship or oil tanker in it, or will the
_ water depth and the geography of the strait prevent that?
- [Answer] A lot of people are now talking about the issue of blocking the
~traits of Hormuz, and they think the straits could easily be r_losed to
navi.gation by sinking a tanker. However, if we study the geographic consid-
erations, we find that the distance between the Iranian coast and the Arab .
coast at the narrowest point from the island of Masandam to the Iranian
, coast to the east is about 30 nautical miles. Also the depth in that area
is about 250 feet and the average draft of the largest oil tankers runs from
" 65 to 90 feet.
Also, there is a narrower stretch of ~.7 nautical miles located nflrth of the
island of Tiasandam and the Iranian island of Lark to the north at the Ra's
Sharitah point.
. 48
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~loweve.r, i~ l-~as been established that if one or more tankers were sunk, the
- site of the sinking could be avoided and navigatiorc could continue. So,
the straitti cannot be l~.locked in this way.
hioreover, a sunken tanker. could be blown up and turned into pieces of steel
so as to avoid collisions with it.
However, all these naval facts do not mean that it is impossible to block
the Strai~s of Hormuz. Military experts in the naval field could block the
straits easily and cheaply, and it would be difficult to reopen it easily
for navigation. Most military men are aware of this method, which would be
more effective than sinking oil tankers.
8389 .
CSO: 4802
~9
~
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.
SAUD'! ARABTA
COI~REHENSIVE MANPOWER PLANNING POLICY URGED
i Jiddah SAUDI BUSINESS in English 12 Oct 79 pp 10-11
[Article by Nasr Muhammad al-Qarawi: "Sorting Out the Manpower Mess"]
[ T ex t] ~e manpower crisis is still one of the true. But although neople quot~ 'srnagi-
most serious problems facing Saudi nary and unrealistic iigures, we still havP
Arabia. It is an economic and social the manpower crisis.
problem, and it is the direct result of the There are other Arabs working here,
Kingdom's moving to a high point in its brought in by both public and private
civilization. sectors, but there are not that many of -
Over the past two years the crisis them.
reached its peak, but this year it has The point is that they are not regu-
assumed a certain stability. It was a result lated, and there is false unemployment.
of various pressures, some imaginary You can see them sitting on pavements,
and some the work of certain people tak- in teashops or in the souks. They ai~e
ing advantage of the situation for their workers who refuse work except for the _
- own large profit. They were draining pay they demand, even though they may
businessmen of money. not get another ;~b for some time.
There was a rumor, for example, that You can see it in the usual places, like
~ we have a manpawer shortage. People the "workers' market," where many of
say we have an equation of supply and them gather in search of a job. They go
demand that is out of balance. unemployed because they demand too
I do not believe that supply and ~$h rates. It means joblessness, and it
. demand imbalance was the only cause of dces unnecessary harm to the local
the manpower crisis in Saudi Arabia. It economy.
was one of the reasons wage rates went Some people might argue that the
up, but it was not the only one. There government should set wage rates to stop ~
were other factors which either led to or that sort of greed and unfairness to our
paved the way for the wage explosion of people. Others might argue that fixed
1976 to 1977. In 1978 the rises were less rates will give justice to both sides.
_ steep. I disagree. Setting all sorts of differen~
At the beginning of 1979, things rates and levels does not make economic
started righting themselves. First the rate sense. It cannot replace the equation of
of increase stowed, and then wages supply and demand. Nor is it practical.
began to fall. All other things being Rates vary not only in the Kingdom or in
equal, they will fall further. any developing country but also in the
Everyone says we have large numbers industrialized countries. There~ are too
of foreign workers here. It is simply not many grades of experts, qualified per-
" 50
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;
sonnel, half-experts and the inexperi- not well thought-out. We must have an
enccd. emphasis on a career for everyone. We
The Saudi economy took a great leap only began our development recently,
in 1974, after the 1973 oil price rises, and although we need people qualified in
and people's incomes rose. 7'his led to a broad ~ields, we need far more speciul-
greater dem~ind for man~uwer, but no ized and expert nands. -
one re~;:lated its supply. And that is If you look at plans for training and its
what caused the manpower crisis. spread across the Kingdom, you can see
Let us look at the problem to identify contradictions in strategy. Look at basic
~its roots. The first thing to ?otice is the training, in technical institutes.
economic aspect - too much monev The Ministry of Labor and Social
coming too quickly to ordinary people. Affairs has done a lot, but it must still
They invested their money, concentrat- guide the career of every citizen make
ing on labor-intensive construction. It him enjoy his work. There has been no
was in real estate dealings that the Saudi ~rious research into that. _
citizen suffered, because of the high It Would have been possib~e in the -
_ price of both builcling materials and con- past, when the Kingdom was suffaring
struction. There was confusion when from the manpower crisis in both public
every individual hegan to be hit by the and private sectors, but no long term
shortage of accommodation, and people strategy was developed with the Plan-
turned to building their own houses ning Ministry and the universities. _
through loans from the Real Estate In its historic transformation, its open-
Development Fund or with their own ing itself without hesitation or shame to
capital. progress, Saudi society emphasized
That economic factor was followed or skills. In recent years that has been evi- -
accompanied by burgeoning govern- dent to a degree not anticipated in either
ment spending on huge projects. It was a the second or the third development
burc]en on the lucal economy and it P1an. Both town and country people
caused a sharp rise in inflation, which have been training in s~:ills, especially in
reached 33 per cent in the first years of 1976. .
- the Second Five-year Plan. But not so mucl_ in 1977 and 1978.
'The government introdured its anti- It is sad that neither :t;~ Mir':tries of
inflation policy when rentals reached the Labor and Social Affairs nor Education,
peak of a rise that took them from 170 and not even the Ministry of Planning,
per cent to 300 per cent of the 1974 made any serious effort to examine why
figure in the following year alone. not, scientifically and through thorough
Rents are stabilizing, but they are still reports. So people have become less and
high. Tt~?ey will stay high if the govern- less interested in training for a career. In
ment does not tackle the problem com- those days it was still possible to attract
prehensively and on studied principles. People in large numbers, if only they had _
I do not believe that the answer lies in been told that specialization in a career is
importing more foreign workers, a poss- one of the ways to a respectable income.
ible cause of further instability. I~stead, If facilities for local training go on _
the government should set fundamental expanding as they ought, the manpower
and permanent rules for dealing with the problem will be solved as if it had never
import of~foreign labor and for dealing been. Wages will go down acroys the
with Saudi lab~r. I believe the weaknes- board, possibly even to half what they _
_ ses of the established systems for training are nowadays.
- Saudis must be the major reason we have Glance at what the state affers. More
a manpower crisis. than one government department is car-
The government's policy on iraining is rY~ng out training programs for its awn
employees or for certain people.
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It is a wide range, but as things stand One of the hardest jobs the Interior
now it is not enou~h, and it will never be. Ministry has is the problem of foreign
- Why younb Saudis do not sign up for )abor. It has spared no effort in get�ing to
these programs is because of the great grips with it. Not Iong ago, it was the
economic leap forward. They choose
easy and quick money that does no long ministry 5 hardest task.
term good. Of cc~urse, those who go to Hundreds of thousands of foreigners
vocational training centers will certainly ~'ere needed from all over the world to
- do better than th~~se working without a Work on the increasing volume of gov-
career, but that i~ only in the long term. ernment projects. The Interior Ministry
The lack of financial incentives for made several detailed studies on man-
graduates ot training centers has contri- P~~'~'er importing, although it was the
buted to the disillusionment. Crown responsibility of the Ministry of Labor
Prince Fahd's recent order to increase to and Social affairs.
SR100,000 the loans available to The Labor Ministry should have
radLatin trainees to set u opened branch offices in every region. -
g B ( p in their Failing that, it should have put its men in
- trades) may bring back the old confi- the Alien's Department. Then it could
- dence, but the decision took a long time gradually have taken over responsibility
That delay and the factors mentioned for foreigners.
above will stili prevent people coming in ~k at the Aliens' Department in
sufficient numbers to training, and so the Riyadh. It is not as smart as when it was
manpower problem continues. opened: The chaos in which applications
:'he situation ~vill continue if a com- are processed, the cramped space and
plete and comprehensive policy is not the Izck of basic amenities are the direct
adopted for training the Kingdom's resnlt of the critical position of the
manpower and re~ieploying it, in the cur- Interior Ministry.
ricula of vocational training, in their dis- It will be the same if branches of the
tribution or in the moral preparedness department are not opened in other
and the desire of ~~audi youth to enroll in areas. The Labor Ministry's responsibil-
them. There is a need, too, to eliminate ~ty is clear. Had it opened offices before,
the anarchy and f~alse unemployment in it would have decreased the pressure on
the labor market Neither will go away the head of5ce and at the same time have
by itself; the authorities must act. relieved the public of the trouble of
going to Riyadh, and helped its staff, too.
CSO: 4820
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SAUDI ARABIA
FOREIGN WORKFORCE ~STIMATES RELEASED
Jiddah ARAB NEWS in English 13 Oct 79 p 3
[Article by Timothy Sisley: "Three-fourths of Workforce Foreign"]
[Text]
JEDDAH, Oct. 12 - Approx- generation is coming to put an will not. The end of the Second
imately three-quartets of the work- increasing reGance on higher edu- Plan will bring a decGne in imports
~force inr. S~udi Arabia is foreign, cation for its own sake: "Not a for construcdon, and tlhe you~g
according to estimates by officials. pleasing tendency:' Saudis who went ~ on to hi~her
_ Ahmad-Hamad AI-Yahya, the : ~"With every year of develo~ study instead of entering the
director-general o.f the Western , menC," Yahya says, "we have to workforce over the past 5ve years
Regiod s Mein Labor Office here, create new � jobs, in greater quan- will increasingly be rotuming to
says that the Ministry of Lai~or uty ~8~ ~n lie filled'by.education amployment.
and Social Affairs has no exact and training:' On the other hand the establ- ,
flgures on the size of the labor `The authorities are "now ~ ishment of industry and a greater
force in the Kingdom or its com- p~Gased that, since edpcation and reliance on maintenance will
posidon by nationality. training programs aie vety active demand that workers be brought
But he estimates that there are and expanding, we. will achieve it. The workforce will expand, but
_ something over two million pea our goal and overtake the number Saudis will be a growing propor-
ple at work, and between 70 and af new vacancies:' ' tion of it.
75 per cent of them are nan-Saudi He says that a high proportion Yemenis, from both north and
Arabian. south, are thought to make'up the
of the places available in the p
That compares with the Second ministr}r s vobational txaining eeri- largest non-Saudi grou in the
Five-year Plan s projection for ters are bein~ filled.. It is a"very g rkforce..Officig'ahl North Yemeni
1980 of a Saudi workforce of ~ g.p ~ fi ures run as hi aR two million,
~,518,000 beside 812,600 pairs of encoura 'n ro am: but a better estimate, derived
But the scheme is nonetheless
oreign h~nds. "still behind ta et:' Of the nine fr�m a Swiss census in i North
, In an interview published in ~ Yemen, puts the ~igure nearer
~skills on offer, no one has s d
Sa~di b~r~siness Saturday, Yahya ~ 600,000. Egypti~ns are thought.to
attributes part of the responBibil- for courses in metalwork, masonry follow, with a possible 250,000.
or tailoring.
- ity for that distortion to the gready ~~~e probkm is we have a lack P~istanis are the third largest
expanded opportunities for edu- � group, with 200,000 here accord-
cation available to the young. af trainees, although once people . ~g to the Pakistani embassy.
- There are now six universities in enrol in the anters the drop-out ~e British embassy says it has
the Kin dom, with more laces rate is low and subsequent work
8 P ~ 20,000 or 25,000 people here, the
than in vocadonal trainin cen- ~~.�~ance encouraging. _
g . Yah a sa s that the Kin dom's A~erican 20,000. . There are
- ters, and Yahya says the younger Y Y g 80,000 Koreans, and between
labor needs will grow for the fqre- 60,000 aad 70,OOQ Filipinos.
seeable future, but labar imports
CSO: .4820 ~
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SAUDI ARA13If~
BRIEFS
BIRTHS NOTEI~-Riyadh, Oct. 6--Fifteen thousand seven hundred and seventy
three babies were born in the first half of this year in the Central
Region, of whom 11,600 were Saudi. Saudi boys accounted for 6,200, or
~ 53.2 percent. Foreign boys accounted for 2,127, or 51.7 percent. The
total number of births exceeds that of the corresponding period last
year by 3,458, of whom 2,438 were Saudi. The increase was owing to the
narurai increase in population as well as a growing tendency to register
births in the area. [Text] [Jiddah ARAB NEWS in English 7 Oct 79 p 2]
CSO: 4820
_ 54 -
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- YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC
_ WORKER REMITTANCES HELP, HINDER ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Jiddah SAUDI BUSINESS in English 12 Oct 79 pp 20-27
[Article by James Buchan~
[Text ] North Yemen, which has seen its that, despite massive budget and trade
northern neighbors grow into wealth and deficits, North Yemen consistently
influence through oil, often thinks of enjoyed a surplus on its balance of pay-
itself in thc same terms. ments from 1971 up to March of this
- Uespite unspectacul~r result� from yeur. In planning terms, the privat~ sec-
prospecting op~rations in the Tihama tor is expected to exceeei its share in total
coastal ~trip ancl offshore and on the investments of $ 3.6 billion in Yemen's
eclge of the I:mpty Quarter, many ambitic~us Five-Year Plan, now in its
Yemr.nis helievc their country will one thircJ year, accor~ling to a se~~~~:c official
day be an expurier of oil. The minister of of the Central Planning Organizatiun.
state responsible for oil, Ahmad Kaid What no minister ur official will admit
Liarakat, is murh more measured in his in his office in the murning, he. will in thc
h~~pc;s partly becausc he had just put more relaxed atmosphcre of his
out an international tender for 14,U00 mufraj in the afternoon. The fact is
_ , barrcls a~lay uf ~~ruclc pre~ducts f~~r l 9fi0, that for the fc~reseeable future, the
" We are t~ilking of a prohable occurr- health of the Yemen economy and the
ence of uil in the east. We are huping, " momentum of development will depend
hc said in Sanaa last weck.. on the rate at which the Saudi Govern-
. 13ut the Yemcnis are right in thinking ment decides to spend Saudi oil
in terms of oil, since the economy of the revenues. The implications of this
Yen~cn Arab (tepublic - and its dependence, in terms of the debate over
devclopment - is fired by the revenues planning cooperation on the Peninsula
of its oil-proclucing neighfiors. ~ and the raw question of relations with
Just as Bahr~iin has developed into a Aden, are scarcely attractive to the
service center for its gushing neighbors, independent-minded Yemenis.
so Yemen h:~s seen unprecedented This dependence was shown in the
' economic expansion from the earnings period immediately after the invasion of
of its only significant export - man- the southeastern YAR by its !vlarxist-
power. The earnings of Yemeni workers Leninist neighbor in Aden. According to
in the true oil states, and most impor- Omar Bazara, director of the Foreign
tantly Saudi Arabia, have fuelled what Department of the Central Bank, a
Barakat calts" the chaotic boom,~n'the drying-up in remittances caused a bal-
YAR. " ance of payments deficit of over $ 17
These remittances, much of which million for the March-June quarter.
- bypass the state's coffers, have meant They have picked up again, he says, but
at a decelerating pace.
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Accort~panieci by what one banker cal- and individual Arab cou~tries - hem-
- led a" massive capital flight " from med in by a desperate need to maintain
inside the country, the failure in confi- Arab unity in the face of the Camp Davici
dence - coupled with recent govern- developments - goacleei the two
ment anti-inflation legislation - has Yemens into a cease~re and talks on
caused what may amount to a crisis of unity. A posse of 85 Arab League obser-
liquidity in the private sector. vers wer~ in the YAR by mid-March.
What happened in the south to reverse The progress of the unity talks in ~
the fortunes of a country that enjoyed Kuwait, which are now somewhat on ice,
remittances of $ 1.4 billion, and a did nothing to restore business confi-
- balance-of-payments surplus of $ 350 dence, a leading Taiz merchant said.
million in fiscal 1978-1979, according to Equally important, in terms of Yemeni
World Bank and Central f3ank figures ? overseas earnings, was the concem in the
Now that the dust has settled, military military and government at Yemen's
observers in Sana~ wili give an account defenses. ~
of the events of February dnd ~Iarch. On Such government 'sntervention is
February 19, South Yemeni armored causing great anxiety to ordinary
- iorces, backed by Soviet and Cuban Yemenis. It is not simply that they wish
o~cers in resupply and logistics roles, to earn m~re in Saudi Araoi~. They can't
punched a hole in the border around the earn much more. But they can save,
two of Qataba. Aeien's intention, North because life is cheaper in Yemen. If any
Yemeni politicians believe, was to pre- ordinary Yertieni wishes to get a well
cipitate uprisings against the govern- dug for his family, or get married
ment of Col. Ali Abdullah Saleh in (bride prices are as high as the
Sanaa and other areas. SRI00,000 quoted in the neighboring
The immediate military goaf appears Asir), he must come to Saudi Arabia.
to have beer~ limited to cutting com- T'wo weeks ago, the People's Assem-
munications on the road between Sanaa bly agreed on a national conscription
and the garrisons in Taiz and the south- plan - the terms of which had earlier
' west. been published in tlie semi-official
For a number of reasons, this goal.was " Al-Thawra " newspaper. Passports
not reached. The South Yemeni tanks wou(d no longer be issued to young men
did not progress out~icle the area covered of military age - which is also the age
by long-range artillerv support from for e~igration. ~
Sauth Yemen and not ~~shell landed on !~IostYemeniofficialsandmembersof
the road. Except in the activities of the the aid community accept the reduced
Jabha, the National Demoratic Front, in figures for both the population ancf
Dhamar Province and the southeast, the emigrants posited in the Fina( Report of
uprisings did not materialize. the team from the Swiss Technical
IVorth Yemeni ~~fficials frankly admit Cooperation Office carried out since
the government was taken by surprise. 1975. In effect, it is considered unwise to
At first, only loc~?I YAR militias were suggest a population over 5.5 million and
. deployed against the South Yemeni emigrants over 800,000- with 600,000
armor. Counter-attacks were set in commonly accept;;d as the minimum
motion from Marib, Taiz and the north _ number of Yemenis working in Saudi
- but this was not before the beginning of Arabia. .
March, when a large-scale Arab dip- If the draft is effective - and a first
lomatic effort was already in motion. induction of 2,000 young men swampecl
- Saudi Arabia provided help for an the induction~center in Sanaa, �~ccording
air-lift of U.S. arms and material as a to military observers - the volume of
show of support, while the Arab League remittances is likety to remain fairly sta-
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tic in re~il terms, wh~~tever Saudi spend- rates - although the Yemen govern-
- ing plans. Yemeni inflation is of the mentcontinuestopreferfixed-pricecon-
or~ier of 3U-35 per cent in the estimation tracts.
of Citibank, although the Central Bank Another large merchant, Yiuhammad
believes it is under ~0 per cent. Saif Thabet, was unable to fulfill com-
It is highly unlikely that the consumer mitments on the construction of new
spending fuelled by the remittances will headquarters for the Central Bank- the
naturaily hol~i levcL ~turh of it is already present bank sits over a machinery deal-
guing on such luxuries as ra~lios, stcreos ership. The case is stili under dispute,
ancl yat, accorcJin~; to the "I'aiz merch~int. for which Yemen lacks adequate legal
!n largc terms, hankcrs arguc that the machinery, bankers say. Yieanwhile, the
key inclicator is ncit the size of Yemen's bank has adopted the Saudi solution of
net forcign assets - c~f which Yemeni ~ntroducing Koreans, in this case Jung
ufficial~ are justly pmu~l - hut at the W~ Const., to complete the job with
- sharp clec:linc in the rate of incrcasc. The their own labor.
in~rcase was $ 4C~7 miilion in fiscal In an effort to control inflation, the
1 y7fi- I 977, but clrc~p~ec1 to$ 385 million Yemen govemment has taken IMF
in 1977-1978 ancl to$ 118 million in the advice. It has abandoned its policy of
last fisc:il year that ended on June 30. laissez-faire and has imposed a ceiling of
Acid to that what the Yemen Oil and 10 per cent on bank lending. On the
'~lincrals Corporation (Yominco) esti- grounds that there is too much credit
_ matcs as a l,0 percent increase in the cost floating around Sanaa, the Central Bank
of its Kuwaiti oif proJucts, and the out- has discouraged new banks from
look for that bizarre and attractive opening there. The British Bank of the
ch~iracter - the YAR economy might Middle Fast, with branches in Taiz and
appear bleak. Hodeida, has not been permitted to open
f3oth merchants and bankers are in the capital.
agreed that the short-term outlook is not The moves are extremely unpopular
good, and foreign companies have with bankers. Obliged to borrow abroad
proved reluctant to enter the market. at higher rates - 13 per cent is the
Inflation operates with different inten- U.S. prime - they have all but ceased
sity in different sectors, with rates of ?00 lending on the negative spread. "'Vlost
per cent a year mentioned as the impact banks are not making any money at all, "
of remittances on rent. But it is in labor a Citibank official said. The problem is
costs that the cffect of large-scale emig- compounded in that most~Yemeni mer-
_ ration is most felt. chants, because of the poor communica-
- Viuhammad Abu Saeed Anham, tions, like to do business on eatended
_ nephew of Yemen's largest merchant, credit.
- describes the major losses his uncle's The Yemen Bank for Reconstrution
construction business incurred on the and Development actually went on tele-
first phase of the Sanaa water project, vision this month to call for local cur-
awarded in 1975 on a fixed-price basis. rency deposits - at 10 per cent.
" Day rates were 10 Yemeni riyals when Ttie Central Bank has also taken the
we started, and we wrote an increase to step of making it harder for Yemenis to
YR15 into our assessment of the three- transfer sums abroad. They must now fill
year contract. " out forms requesting the transfer as a
By 1978, the massive drain on skilled first move in recording the outflow.
and unskilled labor was being felt in day But bankers and merchants disagree
rates of YR60. They have now broken on the extent of the liquidity problem.
through YR100 - e4ua! te Saudi day Some Western bankers believe that the
57
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~
majority of remittances ".leep " and Bank of the United States and the
that the Central Bank shoul~l not worry Bahrain market. Yemenia sought con-
about the money supply as a factor in cessional termsoff Ex-Im Bank-which
_ inflation, but should print more money it rarely gives - and the Yemen gov-
to keep economic activity ticking over. emment shilly-shallied over guarantees,
This is not the Central Bank's attitude; according to bankers. Presumably atl
Bazara points with pride to a downturn parties wa~~ted a Saudi government
in the rise in M3. Most merchants guarantee, but if this was forthcoming,
categorically reject the mattress-and- Yemenia did not use it. "They are still
sock theory and they claim much locked into the idea of free money;' a
economic activity is directiy related to banker said in reference to the easv
remittances - private house construc- terms available to Yemen from the Saudi
tion, the impressive road-clearing and Fund for Development, the Kuwait
rninor works of the 150 cooperative Fund and the IDA. So easy are these
Local Development Associations and terms that Yemen's debt-service ratio is
the increase in consumption of every- still a comfortabe 1 per cent. Over half of
thing from wheat to radios. Yemen's aid is in grants.
The stagnation in net foreign assets at But the Yemenis may have to go back
the Central Bank cannot be entirely to the market, and they are unlikely to
ascribed to drawdowns for capital pur- find such a"good" instrument to test
_ chases and military expenditure. After bankers' responses and to establish the
- all, the Kingdom is financing the F-5 Yemeni risk as they had at one point with
program and the $~100 million of U.S. Yemenia.
weaponry, part of which was rushed in The credit squeeze would not matter '
during the war. so much if the government had more
It is quite clear- and this is supported money. Of course, the govemment has
by money-changers tn the Kingdom - the Arab and international aid commit-
that many of the Yemeni workers here ments but, nearly half of this is for pro-
are either hoardine their Saudi riyals or jects - and CPO officials bewail the
dollars, or making direct purchases with length of time needed by feasibility ~
them. studies and disbursements. The five
Against the background of lower major wadi irrigation projects tenta- -
_ increases in foreign assets, bankers are tively set for the Plan are still under
_ right in ctaiming the Yemen government study, though work on Wadis Mawr and
missed a golden opportunity to " go to Rima should start this year, according to
the market " over the Yemenia loan. the CPO. -
The Yemen Airways Corporation, a Times have changed since the period
profit-making organization 49 per cent of Imam Yahya, a time remembered
owned by Saudia, abandoned its inten- with affection by most Ye?nenis. In the
tion of going to international markets for 1930s, an English observer watched the
- a$ 75 million loan to buy four Boeing Imam at government:
747s. The case is interesting since it is a "All around the Imam, on the floor,
bridge that one day even Saudi Arabia lay piles of paper of every shape and size.
may have to cross, according to Jeddah He was dealing with these swiftiy, sign-
lfinancia! analysts. ing or writing a word or two on some. At
Yemenia, in the end, got the money one point a servant entered carrying a
from the state which hardly looks a good number of silver dollars in a wooden
idea when the Marcl~ fighting and after- tray; after this had been shown to che
math are making major demands on King, the coins were shot into a pile on -
- guvernment spending. But this was not the floor:'
before ne~otiations with the Ex-Im In fact, the taxation system has
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decayed since the time of the Imam, get approval for temporary flour
according to an English aid specialist imports, but not before the Yemeni mer- .
~ engaged in studying local Zakat records. chants had made a killing with Hocieida
- Zakat, of which more than half goes to tlour.
the LDAs is not enforced while the 10 To expand the sources of national
per cent tax on profits for companies is revenue was one of the major platforms
even more lax, according to the Taiz of the plan, alongside the crucial needs of
merchant. improving living'standards, curbing the
With taxation making up less than a inflationary effect of remittances and
tenth of government income, customs making ehe country easier to govern by
- duties have come to be the main source the laying of basic infrastructure. In
~f government revenue. These looking at the achievements of the plan
accounted for more than three-quarters - magnificertt by any standards - CPO -
of revenue in the January-to-March officials point out the marked differ-
quarter. ences with the Saudi Plan.
- Companies working on development. "In Saudi Arabia, you have the cake
projects may import equipment free, but and it is just cut up in allocations to vari-
everyone else must pay high rates - up ous sectors," an official said."In Yemen,
to 57 per cent for motor vehicles. The the cake does not exist except in the form
government is losing about 20 per cent of of commitments and inflow trends: '
the excise on imports through smuggling, Of total commitments of rather over
according to Central Bank officials. $1.3 billion from aid donors (including
A senior Yemeni of~cial, who asked $300 million in project aid frorrt Iraq
- not to be identified, expressed irritation announced last week), the government
at a recent statement by Saudi Com- has now disbursed aroand $500 millics~. -
merce Minister Dr. Soliman A. Solaim In the first two years of the Plan, the
who claimed that "smuggling of Saudi government has managed to meet its -
food to neighboring countries shows how investment targets while the private sec-
low food prices are in the Kingdom." tor has exceeded its own share. T'he
The Saudi government is blamed by respective shates were 33.8 per cent and
both Yemeni officials and merchants for 28.3 per cent, while the new mixed sec-
its policy of subsidies. Anham, for exam- tor (16.3 per cent) and the LDAs (6.9
ple, says that the Saudi subsidy on cook- per cent) were given important roles.
ing oil has meant that his Yemen Com- The plan set a number of other
- pany for Ghee and Soap has consistendy ambitious targets. An a~nual growth
run at a loss. Barakat says that even Pet- rate of 8.2 per cent in Gross Domestic
romin oil products are smuggled in Product and a nine-fold increase in gross
trucks, and pump prices definitely are a fixed capital investment (to $1.2 billion
third lower in Saada. The discerning by 1980/1981) are the most spectacular.
smoker bargains for his Saudi Roth- A program of import substitution for
mans, since they do not carry the Yemen food is now recognized as highly
govemment tax stamp. unrealistic. Ninety per cent of Yemenis
It seems silly to blame the Saudi gov- live in the country, where the system of
ernment, since it also is suffering and it is terraced agriculture has excited the
extremely doubtful the border could be admiration of every visitor. But World
policed properly f~ om either side. Bank figures show little growth in subsis-
Yemen government tempers are high tence agriculture this decade, except in
because the new Saudi fodder subsidy is the recovery from the drought years of
cutting deeply into import duties on sor- 1969-1973. The figures for the agricul-
ghum and other grains and must eventu- tural input to the GDP actually show a 6
ally damage Yemeni agriculture. per cent decrease in the first year of the ~
It can work both ways. The Saudi gov- Plan. while agricultural exports - cot-
ernment has banned flour imports, but ton, hides and skins and the famous cof-
because its own milling capacity forgrain fee - are declining rapidly in value.
fell short this spring, there was a shortage Exports, of which these made up the
of flour. Jeddah merchants managed to bulk, declined from $7 million in fiscal
~
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1977-1978 to ~5 million last year. the labor force will not be felt now. And
Imports incr~ased from $834 million to control of emigration must involve
$960 miltion in the period. short-term losses in investment.
Yemen, which provided grain for the 'I'he phenomenon of Yemeni emigra-
Desert War that ended at Alarnein in tion is as old as time. But in the modern
1943, imported 30,0()0 tons of wheat last era, Yemen has regularly exported
year. workers co communities in East Africa,
A major restraint is financial, the CPO the docks of Cardiff and Detroit and the
says. Officials point out that the plan is steelworks of Sheffield and Pittsburgh; a
entirely flexible witf~ government prc~- Yemeni community grew up in Vietnam,
jects already scrapped or relegated to a presumably through recruitment into the
lower priority. The plan, while it has Foreign Legion in Djibouti and service
fixed investment goals unlike the Three in the French wars. These modest num-
Yea: Developmznt Program that prec- bers grew to a multitude when the oil
eded it, "nevertheless is regarded as a bubble burst in 1973-1974: by fiscal
basis, not an end in itself: ' Despite the 1�975-1976, the Central Bank recko~ed
poor response in agriculture, Yemen has remittances were $525 million.
succeeded in improving supply in a coun- Of late there has been some reverse.
try prone to famine through improve- Immigration has occurred from the
ments in roads, ports and storage hand- troubled areas of East Africa, although -
= led by the General Grain Corporation. Yemenis long domiciled ther~ complain
Food prices cannot, ho~vever, be fixed of trouble in being accepted. Apart from
- successfully, officials admit. South Korea, workers are being
Yemen, just like the Asir, could sub- imported from Pakistan and India -
stantial~y improve agricultural output. Anham's construction joint venture is
even though money is short and rain now "A to Z staffed by Indians" - so
unpredictable. The chief problem is that the Central Bank now publishes a
manpower. The vast majority of emig- net figure for remittances. Last year,
rants hail from rural areas, according tu remittance outflows were $300 million.
the ~wiss survey. "I'his has the beneficial With 25 per cent of the labor force
- effect of at least spreading the Saudi- abroad, the manpower shortage. is felt
based prosperity, but has meant a con- across the board. In the civil service, the
_ t~nuous dra~n on young men needed to World Bank estimates that there are
farm. Other effects, the deterioration of sorne 1,400 em t obs. Of course, civil ~
terraces and the turning over of coffee P y~
= acreage to the higher-yieldin~ qat, are ~ervants must be given more competitive
rather overstated by the V1~orld Bank and $alaries to keep them not only in the
other outside analysts, offi~yals clairti. government but in the country; but here
In its 1979 "country study" for the government runs into the financial
Yemen, the World Bank suggests that constraint.
the planners made a"critical assump- The manpower shortage also acts as a _
tion" that emigration co~ld be reverse~d. formidable curb on industry. Of the
100,000 new workers which the Plan
Although there is empfiasis in the Plan proposes if targets are to be met, about
on capital-intensive industry as a solu- 80 per cent are for industry and services.
ti~n until educational reform becomes But both officials and merchants claim
effective, the assumption remains that the high wages required and the low
broadly true. "With the completion of a level of skills make industrialization
new manpower survey, we hope to keep doubly dif~cult after the usual Third
a stricter hold on emigration," an of6cial World problems - the necessity to
said. The fact is that if this happens, it import and to start from scratch and a
will be because of the draft law and the small market - are taken into account.
national security anxieties: the benefit to The g~vernment, in order to spur the '
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F
e::onomy, formed a number of public tackle the supply bottlenecks causing
and semi-public corporations in the early inflation - the root cause, which is
1970s. Apart from Yemenia and the remittances, must be accepted as fact.
importing and distributing company now In this area, the government has man-
. absorbed into Yominco, none of the aged to lay down the basis of a road
national companies for salt, cigarettes, network and to make substantial
cotton or cement was a great success. increases in port capacity. Waiting times
The Salif salt company was shutdown of up to 180 days during the consumer
for five years, but has just reopened with ~m last year have been re iuced at
its first commercial contract with Spain. Hodeida to a week. The congestion
Capacity has been raised to a theoretical largely solved itself since it appears to
.one miilion tons and Barakat is hopeful have been the result of inerchant:, over-
that other orders for the high-quality salt ordering. But a pontoon berth was
will follow. But the National Tobacco opened north of Hodeida, and three new
Company in Marib spent 12 years com- berths due to be completed with Kuwaiti
bating low output, poor management money at the main port will streamline -
and large losses without managing to offloading.
penetrate the local market. It has now 'I'he long-term constraints - man-
been hived off to majority private own- poWer shortages and excessive depen-
ership, with Rothmans handling the dence on emigration for revenue- look
- management. much more daunting. In seeking other
- - The government cotton operations, sources of national income, the pet-
hit by the decline in world prices, have roleum and minerals picture still
consistently seen reduced output. requires detail. It is suggested that a
Anham, whose family comes from rexas company, Petrostock Interna-
' Hogariya, pioneered "the extra profits tional, may be awarded a concession in
ava~lable fram industry" with other the east. Yet there are still outstanding
returned Adenis in 1970. His nephew problems. The 1934 border arrange-
says that the priv~~te sectorwill still invest ment, which ended the war between
in small plant fc~r the local market - Saudi Arabia and Yemen, expired in
_ PVC pipe, polytl~ene bags for qat, tan- 1974. Whatever understandings may or
neries, soft drinks and food are produceci may not have been reached between the
by Anham; Th;ibet is producing ice two governments in that year, they have
cream and milk products. But few of certainly been repudiated by succe~sive
these plants reyuire investment over regimes in Sanaa. The talk in Sanaa is of
~1.5 million. a third neutral zone for Arabia.
- The government welcomes ioint ven- Although foreigners have been look- ~
tures and offers the usual five-year tax ing for oil in Yemen since the 1920s,
_ holiday. But foreign companies are prov- Barakat is right in saying"the investiga-
ing coy. "The market is too risky and the tion has not been serious up to now: '
_ returns are too small to justify the ris}:s; ' However, Deutsche Shell is continuing
one banker said. In contracting, slopp}~ tests in the Tihama. `Cypicaliy, the Salif
bidding procedure, changes in specifica- salt deposits were found in 1962 by oil
tions and tribal harassment of workers drillers.
and pilfering - as well as wage inflation In mining, nothing has yet been found ~
- are heavy discouragements, according in commercial quantities. Copper and
to a British contractor. associated minerals have been found in a
The Plan's greatest success has been in "promising area" at Hamura in the
infrastructure, both to improve govern- south. They are being investigated by
ment control of remote areas and to Romanians and Chinese. The French ~
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B RG:~1 is being brought in to examine "
the Rada- Yiarib-Bavda area "which has
shown it could be interesting: ' The JVest
Gerr,ans are working on iron ore
deposits near Saada and in the south
east. Yominco is keen to find other fore-
ign companies.
The thrust of Yominco s effort has
been the creation of petrole~m praducts
, and LPG storage to meet the ?5-30 per
cent annual increase in domestic con- -
sumption. Over 210,000 tons is to be
added over the next two years while a
lan~? distribution system is to be
IauncheQ as a"stop-gap" until pipelines
can be laid. A refinery is still considered _
unfeasible, Barakat sa~d. .
In approaching the manpower prob- '
lem, many younger officials are aware of
the great danger facing the whole Penin-
sula- the creation of physica( structures
that cannot be peopled. While pointine
to great strides in secondary education "
and to the 3,000 students now at Sana�a s
nine-year-old university, these officials
argue for a slower pace of government-
funded development and a greater con-
centration on institutional improve- -
ments.
~ This position, which is advocated in
the World Bank's country study, seems
unlikely to be accepted in preference to _
more spectacular improvements in
infrastructure and, of course, basic ser-
vices. ~
CSO: 4820
62
~
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200020005-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200020005-2
YFMEN ARAB REPUBLIC
BRIEFS
CEhiL'NT FACTORY--Two Japanese firms are to build a cement factory with an _
annual capacity of 500,000 tons at Amran in No rth Yemen, the companies
announced last week. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Company and
Nissho-Iwai Company said they had won a contract for the plant worth _
25 billion ($113.7 million). Payment for the plant, scheduled for com-
pletion next year, will be deferred, the consortium said. [Text]
[Paris AL-NAHAR ARAB REPORT & MEMO in English 8 Oct 79 p 14]
CSO: 4820 END
~
63
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200020005-2