JPRS ID: 8714 USSR REPORT METEORLOGY AND HYDROLOGY

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• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100023-4
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• Document Page Count: 179
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 23
• Content Type: REPORTS

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MY r
16 OCT06ER 1979 M0. 7, JULY 1979
iOF2
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JPRS L/8714
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~
16 nctober 1979
~
USSR Report
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 7, July 1979
F~IS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
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JPRS L/8714 -
16 October 1979
USSR REPORT
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 7, July 1979
Selected articles from the Russian-language journal METEOROLOGIYA
- I GIDROLOGIYA, Moscow.
CONTENTS
PAGE
' World Climate Conference 1 ~
Declaration of World Climate Conference 4
Climatic Changes and Mankind's Strategy 9
Problems in Long-Range Weather Forecasting 25
Climates of Past Geological Epochs 41
Monitoring of Climate and the Service for Collecting Climatic Data Necessary
for Deterniining Climatic Changes and Fluctuations. Monitoring of Data on
Climate ................................................................Q.. 66
Concise Results ot the World Climate Conference 82
~
Evaluating the Parameters of Discrete Models of Dynamics of the Atmospnere
and Ocean 93
Parameterization of the Ice Cover in Global Models of Interaction Between -
the Ocean and the Atmosphere............................................~ 109
: Some Patterns of Internal Currents of Linear Water Flows................... 117
Agroclimatic Evaluation of Potential and Actually Possible Potato Yield.... 126
Spectral Measurements of Absorption of Solar Radiation by InduStrial Haze.. 135
~ - a- [III - US5R - 33 5& T FOUO]
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Page -
International Symposium on Comprehensive Global Monitoring of Environ-
mental Contamination 140
Review of Monograph by A. M. Shul'gin: Agrometeorologiya i Agroklimatolog-
iya (Agrometeorology and Agroclimatology), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1978 149
Monsoon Dynamics. Contributions to Current Research in Geophysics. Edited
by T. N. Krishnamurti, Birkhauser Verlag, Basel and Stuttgart, 1978..... 153
Birthday of Griboriy Nikolayevich Khmaladze (on His 75th Birthday)........ 156
~ At the USSR State Coanmittee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental
Pionitoring..o 159
Conferences, Meetings and Seminars 161
Notes from Abroad 170
b
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PUBLICATION DATA
n
English title
; METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
Russiaa title
: METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
Author (s)
Editor (s)
~ E. I. Tolstikov
Publishing House
: Gidrometeoizdat
Place of Publication
: Moscow
Date of Publication
; July 1979
Signed to press
: 19 May 1979
Copies
: 3830
COPYRIGHT
: "Meteorologiya i gidrologiya"
1979
,
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UDC 551.583:327.78
WORLll CLIMATE CONFERENCE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 5-7
[Article by Yu. A. Izrael', Corresponding Member USSR academy of Sciences,
Chief of the Soviet Delegation to the World Climate Conference, and Profes-
- . sor Yu. S. Sedunov, member of the International Organizational Committee
of the World Climate Cunference]
[Text] The World Climate Conference, a conference of experts on the sub,ject
"Climate and Mankind," was held in Geneva during the period 12-23 February
1979. It was organized by the World Meteorological Organization with the
cooperation of other UN agencies, governmental and nongovernmental organ-
izations. Preparations for the conference were carried out by the organiz-
ing committee s.ince 1977, during which its program was drawn up, its agenda
and speakers were determined and work was done on preparation of the reports
and their collation. It was decided to car.ry out the conference in two
stages. During the first week specially selected speakers were to present
25 reports for discussion by a wide range of specialists. In the course of
the second week of about a hundred'selected experiments, on the basis of
the presented reports and their discussion there should be preparation of
a number of conference documents having the nature of recommendations.
The program for the ~irst week of the conference included an examination of
_ the problems involved in the present status of climate and its variability
on the basis of available empirical data, study of the climates of past
geological eFochs, analysis of the physical mechanisms exerting an influ-
ence on climatic change, and data from physical-mathematical modeling. Pro-
vision was made for a discussion of the problems involved in the monitor-
ing of climate, the influence of human actiivity on climate and a detailed
analysis of the influence of climate and its variability on such aspects
of 'Liuman activity as the use of energy and water resources, food production,
land use, sea fishing and exploitation of the coastal zone, forestry. The
program provided for a discussion of the problem of climate and the health
of man and the social problems associated with climatic change. Among the
selected speakers were four representatives of the USSR. Academician Ye. K.
Fedorov prepared a report entitled "Climatic Changes and Mankind's Strategy,"
Academician I. P. Gerasimov spoke on "Climates of Past Geological Epochs,"
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Academician G. I. Marchuk dealt with "Modeling of Climatic Changes and Prob-
lems in Long-Range Weather rorecasting," while Corresponding Member USSR
Academy of Sciences Yu. A. Izrael' reported on "Monitoring of Climate and
the Service for Collecting Climatic Data Necessary for Determining Climatic
Changes and Fluctuations. Monitoring of Data Related to Climate." [The
basic content of these reports is presented in this number of the journal.]
During the first week about 350 leading scientists and specialists from more
than 50 countries and representatives of international organizations partic-
ipated in the conference. The Soviet delegation, consisting of 25 persons,
outstanding scientists and responsible representatives of departments in-
terested in the climate problem, exerted an active influence on the course
of the conference and the work of all its sections. The conferencE was open-
ed by the Honorary Chairman, the WMO General Secretary Davies, who spbke the
introductory words. A welcome to the conference was presented by the Deputy
General Secretary of the iN, representatives of the World Health Organiza-
tion, World Environmental Program, Food and Agricultural Organization, UNESCO,
International Council of Scieiitific Un.ions, and International Institute of
Systems Analysis. The report by Academician Ye. K. Fedorov was presented
aftcr the introductory words by the conference chairman White.
The presentation of the reports and their discussion continued during the
week.
The second week of the conference, when the number of participants was lim-
ited only to invited experts, about 120 persons, was devoted to work on
documents. A group under the chairmanship of Professor Bolin (Sweden),
whicti included a USSR representative, Academician Ye. K. Fedorov, and a
representative of the Polish People's Republic, Professor Kaczmarek, pre-
pared the text of a declaratian whicn then was discussed at the plenary
session, and four working groups prepared documents on the fol].awing direc-
tions;
1. CJ_imatic Data and Their Use.
"L. Influence of Society on Climatic Changes and Fluctuations.
3. Iiifluence of Climatic Changes and Fluctuations on Society.
4, Investigat:ion of Climatic Changes and Fluctuations.
These documents were approved by the working gr.oups and will be used ex-
tensively as sctentific recommendations in preparing the World Climate Pro-
;;ram.
At the concluding p"lenary session approval was given for the final form of
tne text o` the Declaration of the World Climate Conference. [The text of
the Wo.rld Climate Cunference Declaration is ~iven in this journal.] Tliis
declaration, addressed to the countries of the world, includes important
principles relating to the present state of climate, its future changes,
and contains conclusions and recommendations in which there is expression
oF un.iversal support of the need for an unpostponable implementation of the
World Climate Program and its principal components for study of the main
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mechanisms of climatic change, improvement in the collection of climat�ic
data, use of cl.imatic data for practical purposes, study of the influence
of climatic changes and tluctuations on human activity. It is important
to note that the declaration emphasizes the importance of close internation-
al cooperation and the necessity for peace on earth.
The conference also examined the problem of carrying out a conference, at
- the minister level, on problems relating to climatic change and it was con-
cluded that :ts organization in the immediate future is infeasible.
The World Climate Conference, which transpired extreme7.y successfully, is
an exceptionally important event and the results of its work will essen-
tially determine future measures for coordinating the efforts of countries
- and international organizations in the study of a highZy important problem
of modern times climatic change and its predictability.
It was decided to publish, for widespread dissemination, the materials from
_ the conference: reports, conclusions based on discussions, reports of the
working groups, conference declaration and also the welcomes and complete
list of the participants.
The conference materials will have exceptionally great importance for com-
pleting preparation o.f the World Climate Program, and its recommendations
were taken into account in discussing the program for the Eighth WMO Con-
gress. The conference materials, the declaration, the conclusions drawn
from discussion of the reports,, and the reports of the working groups were
presentzd to the congress. In particular, the conference specially express-
ed itself with respect to the section of the World Climate Program directed
to study of the influence of climate on human activity. The plan of action,
directed to ensuring iwplementation of this part of the program, generated
serious comments and it was proposed that it be rpworked substantially,
taking into account the results of work by the working groups.
It seems that the conference results will be extremely useful in the final
reworking of the Soviet Complex Program for Investigations of the Earth's
Climate. The Soviet Complex Program for Investigations of the Earth's Cli-
mate should serve as a basis for the participation of Soviet scientists in
the World Climate Program and therefore it is important that its structure
should correspond ta our national interests and capabilities, that it be
organically intertwined with the principal directions in international
_ activity and cooperation in study of the earth's climate.
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J

UDC 551.583(094.2)
DECLARATION OF THE WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE
_ Moscow I~`rEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 8-11
[Unsigned document, translated from English into Russian]
[Text] The World Climate Conference, a canference of experts on the problem
_ "Climate and Mankind;'held in Geneva during the period 12-23 February 1979,
was organized by the World Meteorological Organization with the cooperation
of other international agencies.
Specialists in many fields of science, gathering at the conference, express-
ed their opinions with respect to climatic fluctuations and changes and the
consequences which this can have for the entire world. On the basis of their
ideas they adopted the following.
Appeal to Countries
Taking into account the ever-increasing influence of climate on human soc-
iety and many branches of human activity, the conference feels that at the
present time for the countries of the earth the following is urgently neces-
sary:
a) full use of existing knowledge of climate;
b) the undertaking of ineasures for considerably improving this knowledge;
c) foreseeing of potential anthropogenic changes of climate which may be
unfavorable for mankind and the prevention of these changes.
Problem
Global climate has changed slowly over the course of the last mill.enia, cen-
turies and decades and will change in the future. Mankind is taking advan-
tage of the favorable climatic conditions, but it is also subject to the
influence of c.limatic changes and fluctuations and manifestations of ex-
tremal phenomena, such as droughts and floods. Food, water, energy, hous-
ing and health, all these aspects of nan's life are essentially dependent
on climate. The recently observed poor harvests of grain crops and the
serious reduction in the catch of some species of fish demonstrate this
dependence. Even ordinary fluctuations and small changes in climate exert
a substantial influence on human activity.
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All countries are subject to climatic fluctuations, particularly the de-
veloping countries, and especially those which are located in arid and
semiarid regions or in regions with heavy precipitation. The influence of
unfavorable climatic factors can be reduced and by neans of use of avail-
- able knowledge of climate it is possible to gain advantages.
The climates of world countries are interrelated. For this reason and due
to the increasing demands on resources for an increasing world popula-
tion, which is striving for better living conditions, it is urgently neces-
sary to formulate a general global strategy directed to the best under-
standing and most rational use of climate.
Man is presently involuntarily changing climate on a local scale, and to a
limited degree, on a regional scale. There is a serious concern that the
continuing expansion of human activity on the earth can lead to consider-
' able regional and even global climatic changes. This possibility dictates
additional urgency in organlzing global cooperation in the study of pos-
sible climatic change on our planet in the future, for taking this new in-
formation into account in planning the future development of human society.
Climate and the Future
Climate will also continue to fluctuate and change as a result of natural
causes. The observed tendencies to a slow cooling in some parts of the
northern hemisphere during the last few decades are similar to the ter.denc-
ies of natural origin observed in the past and thus it remains unknown
whether this will continue or not.
Nevertheless, we can say with same assurance that the combustion of fossil
fuel, the cutting of forests and changes in land use have increased the
_ quantity of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during the last century by ap-
. proximately 15%, and at the present time this quantity is increasing by ap-
proximately 0.4% annually. This increase will probably continue in the fu-
ture. Carbon dioxide plays a very important role in forming the temperature
of the earth's atmosphere, and evidently the increasing quantity of carben
dioxide in the atmosphere can lead to a gradual warming of the lower part
of the atmosphere, especially in the high latitudes. Such a change will
probably exert an influence on the distribution of temperature, the quan-
tity of precipitation and other meteorological parameters but all the
consequences of this are not adequately clear.
It is possible that some phenomena of regional and global scales will be
detected even before the end of this century and they will become signif-
icant before the middle of the next century. This time scale is approx-
imately equal to the period of time necessary for reorienting, in case of
necessity, the work of many branches of world economy, including agricul-
- ture and energy production. Since climatic changes may be favorable in
some parts of the world and unfavorable in others, considerable social
and technological reorganization may be necessary.
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The increasing use of energy and the release of heat in this process have
already led Lo local climatic changes. In the future such heat flows from
densely populated regions and regions with well-developed industry may pos-
sibly exert some influence on climate on a large scale. Other types of
human act:Lvity, sucn as agriculture, cattle grazing, increasing use of
nitrogen fertilizers and the ejection of freons into the atmosphere can
have climatic consequences and therefore they require attentive study. It
is also necessary to make a systematic study of other possible effects on
climate associated with the principal types of human activity.
Some foims of waginJ war can exert an influence on local climate. A world
thermonuclear conflict, in addition to its catastrophic consequences for
mankind, would inflict a considerable devastation of the environment, and
= possibly would lead to large-scale climatic changes.
It is postulated that in the future man will be capable of intentionally
bringing about limited changes in climate on a large scale. It would be
irresponsible to discuss such effects until we have the necessary under-
standing of the mechaaisms controlling climate, which is necessary for
predicting the consequences of climatic changes and fluctuations. Moreover,
prior to initiating the implementation of such projects it is necessary to
attain agreement on an international scale.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Tre World Climate Program, proposed by the Liorld Meteorological Organ:Lza-
tion, merits the strongest support from all countries.
1.rs principal goals are:
Invesrigation of climatic mechanisms for determining the relative role
of natural and anth-ropogenic influences. This will require the further de-
- velopment of mathematical models, which are a means for modeling and evalu-
attng the predictability of a climatic system. They will also be used for a
study of the sensiti.vity of climate to possible natural and anthropogenic
effects, such as the release of carbon dioxide, and for evaluating the re-
act[on of climate.
Improvement in the collection and availability of climatic data. The
success of the climate program is dependent on the availability of a great
volume of ineteorological, hydrological, oceanographic and other necessary
~ geophysical data. In addition, the study o� the influence of climate on
~ humrin activity and the practical use by different countries of a knowledge
of climate will require detailed information on ttieir national resources
a...:i socioeconomic struetures.
Use or climatic knowlectge in planning, development and control. This ac-
tivity must include programs for rendering assistance to national meteorolog-
i_cal and hydrological services in improving information supplied to users on
- the patential advantages whic.h can be obtained by the use of climatic infor-
_ mation and also in tmproving the presentation and uissemination of this in-
_ formation. There must also be programs for assistance in preparing national
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personnel in the field of applied climatology. Programs are needed for the
development of a new methodology for the use of climatic data in the food,
water resources, energy and health sectors.
Study of the influences of climatic changes and fluctuations on human
activity and the application of the results of such investigations for their
best use by governments and peoples. This will require an improvement in
our understanding of the interrelationships between climate and human soc-
iety, including:
I, the possible range of society's adaptation to climatic fluctuations and
changes;
II. those characteristics of human society in different stages of develop-
ment and in different environments, which will make society especially
vulnerable or stable relative to climatic fluctuations and changes;
II1. means by use of cahich human society can protect itself against the un-
favorable consequences of climatic fluctuations and changes and make use of
tlie possibilities following from these fluctuations and changes.
Thus, the general objectives of the program are to ensure foreseeing pos-
sible changes in climate in the fuCure and assist countries in employing
climatic data and knowledge in the planning and control of all aspects
of human activity. This will require interdisciplinary efforts of an un-
precedented scale at the national and internationa:l levels.
Implementation of the World Climate Program includes a broad range of ac-
, tivity and will requir.e direction and coordination among internarional
agencies and close cooperation among countries.
- It is fully recognized that international cooperation, which is a prerequis-
ite for any world climate program, can be implemented only under conditions
of pe4z-&.
There is an immediate need for countries to use existing knowledge conc ern-
ing climate and climatic fluctuations in the planr.ing of social and econ-
omic development.
In some parts of the world there is already an adequate qua.ntity of informa-
tion for rendering different types of applied climatic servicing. However,
this is only the beginning; data and qualified experience in general ar e
completely lacking for the developing countries. Programs must be drawn up
for rendering them assistance for the purpose of full participation in the
[Jorld Climate Program by means of training of personnel and imparting the
corresponding methodology.
The possibility of mankind existing for a long period is dependent on a
harmony between society and the environment. Climate is only one element
in our environment which must be reasonably used. All elements of the en-
vironment interact both locally and at a distance. The deterioration of
the environment in any national or geographic region must be a reason for
, concern by society because this can exert an influence on climate everywhere.
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_ The countries of the world must ac t together in order to maintain soil
fertility, to avoid the incorrect use of world water resources, reserves
of forests and pasture lands, to stop lands from becoming deserts and to
decrease contamination of the atmosphere and ocean. These actions on the
part of different countries will require great resolution and correspond-
- ing material resources, and they will make sense only if peace prevails
on earth.
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UDC 551.(583:509.6)
CLIMATIC CHANGES AND MANKIND'S STRATEGY
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 12-24
[Article by Academician Ye. K. Fedorov, Institute of Applied Geophysics, sub-
mitted for publication 13 March 1979]
Abstrac.t: The author examines the possible natural
and anthropogenic changes in climate. It is assert-
ed tha t such changes of a local, regional and glo-
bal chara.cter can become appreciable and possibly
irreversible within the next fEw decades. In this
connection there is a discussion of the strategy of
elements of r.egional and global scales directed
to the prevention of negative consequences of cli-
matic changes: pred.iction of climatic change, eval-
ua tion of the consequences of climat.ic changes and
formula.tion of appropriate recommen',iations. The
conclusion is drawn that for the development and
implementatior. of such a strategy it is necessary
to have pea.ce, disarmament and international coop-
eration. [This is the basic content of a report at
the World Conference on Climate (Geneva, 12-23 Feb-
ruary 1979).11
[Text] Introduction. Recently specialists and a wide part of society have be-
come increasingly concerned by possible irreversible changes in the environ-
ment, especially climatic changes. Is this a sound concern in the present
era when man is acquiring ever-greater nondependence on environmental condi-
tions and on climatic peculiarities as a result of scientific and technical
progress?
In actuality, construction has lost the seasonality which earlier was charac-
teristic for it. Melioration makes it possible to develop agriculture in the
deserts. The techniques of c.ommunal management make it possible to construct
large cities ensuring comfortable living conditions in the Arctic, etc.
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HoweveL, by vi.rtue of the singular dialectics of development of events the
organization and assurance of activity, the assurance of the necessary living
conditions, require a considerably more precise allowance for climate, like
other er_vironmental peculiarities, in order to do everything necessary in
the most desirable way.
The scales of human actions the dimensions of structures, the transformed
fraction of the earth's surface, the quantity of minerals extracted from the
earth, the total of produced and consumed energy, changes in the composition
of the atmosphere and hydrosphere as a result of production wastes, have in-
creaseci to such a degree that they have become comparable with the corres-
ponding elements of natural phenomena and their fluctuations. Now we can-
not regard the medium surrounding us on the planet to be unlimited or its
elements to be inexhaustible.
Many of our activities construction, melioration, etc. are planned for
over`a long period. In this connection erroneous estimates of the present
and future states of both the natural and transformed environment (mineral
resources, mea.n and extremal rivez runoffs, precipitation quantities, sea
level, etc.) are leading to ever-increasing losses. Excessive safety factors,
dimensions and power all involve unjustifiable expenditures; inadequate safe- -
ty factors, dimensions and power all create a threat of destruction. In this
respect climate plays a special role because virtually all branches of the
economy are developing taking its peculiarities into account, and on the
other hand, almost all forms of human activity are exerting an influence
on it. Therefore, the problem of natural and anthropogenic changes in cli-
mate is of considerable interest. Here we will briefly examine the natural
ar.d anthr.opogenic changes in climate, the effect of climatic changes on the
- zcottomy, the possibility of purposeful transformation of climate and human ,
st-rategy, that is, the system of long-term measures which must be provided
for in order to avoid pussible negative effects from climatic changes.
Before proceeding to an examination of climatic phenomena, we should define
more clearly what we mean by this term. Climate, from our point of view, is
one of the consequences, an2 at the same time, one of the characteristics
of the complex totality of processes operatLve in the atmosphere, in the
ocean and at the land surface. As a result of nonuniform heating of the
Earth's s.rface by the sun a constant circulation of the atmosphere is main-
tained. Its initially very simple model (rising of the heated air in the
equatorial zone, flow toward the polar regions, subsidence there and return
f Iow toward the equator) is complicated as a result of the effect of the
eartn`s rotation, special subsystems of eirculation between the oceans and
the continents, barriers created by major mountain ranges, etc. Nevertheless,
the principal features of this madel, generalized over considerable periods
of time (several years, several decades), retains some constancy.
This relative stability corresponds to the conservation of defir.ite charac-
teristics of the state of the atmosphere and water bodies different in
different regions of the earth, for example, mea.n and extremal temperatures,
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quantiry of precipitation, river runoff for different seasons of the
year, etc. The totality of thes.e relatively stable characteristics of the -
state of the atmosphere, in our opinion, is what the term "climate" means.
Earlier it was assumed that the climate of any region of the earth is known
more precisely the longer the period or time which is taken for the general-
ization of ineteorological data. However, since it became known that climate
changes this conclusion has losC its importance. At present there is no
unanimo,is opinion among researchers ac to what period of time should be
selected for characterizing cli:mate. Most frequently, and in our opinion
this is correct, a period of 10-30 years is selected, although at the con-
ference other points of view have also been expressed.
Natural Climatic Changes
The results of geological, archeological and historical investigations indi-
cate radical climatic chazges occurring during the course of the history
of our planet. It is difficult to judge the climate of any region of the
earth in the very distant past because the positioning of this region rela-
tive to the earth's axis of rotation can change both as a result of movement '
of the continents and in connection with the possible change in the direc-
tion of the axis of rotation itself; in other words, it cannot be assumed
- that any specific zone of the planet over the course of all geological ppr-
iods had the very same latitudinal position (or longitudinal position) as
at the present time. However, there is no basis for assuming that over the
course of the last several hundreds of millions of years the climate was
uniform over the entire surface of the earth and did not differ substan-
tially in different latitude zones, as at the present time. The temperature
in the equatorial region was close to what it is today, but in the polar
regions much higher. The oceans, if they existed in the polar regions,
were free of ice; in addition, there were no continental glaciations.
A gradual cooling of the polar regions began several tens of millions of
years ago and about a million years ago the temperature in the Arctic de-
creased sharply. Glaciations began to follow, one after the other; during
this period the glaciers at times were propagated to the temperate lati-
tudes and at times retreated.
The last glaciation in the northern hemisphere ended, as is well known,
about 10,000 years ago.
Less significant climatic changes were also observed in the relatively re-
cent past. For example, it is known that about a thousand years ago the
temperature in the north polar region was higher than at the present time
and the ice boundary in the ocean was situated to the north of its present
position. This, in particular, facilitated navigation from Europe to the
shores of Greenland, where at that time colonies were established which per-
sisted for several hundred years. Then the next cooling and a considerable
southward advance of the edge of floating polar ice interrupted communica-
tion with them, caused an increase and broadening of the Greenland ice cover,
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which together led to the death of the colony. This cooling was observed `
in Europe and Lt is frequently called a"small glacial period." Climatic
changes were also noted during the course of the ].ast 100-200 years. The
temperature variations were more significant in the high latitudes. An ex-
ample of this was the well-known warming of the Arctic in the 1930's, re- -
placed by some cooling in the 1940's and 1950's.
Climatic variations ~_re not manifested in temperature alone. There are also
changes in the quantity of precipitation. The changes in the quantity of
precipitation, especially in winter, falling in the northern part of the
European USSR, are reflected, for example, in variations in the level of
the Caspian Sea. It is known that in the course of the last four or five
centuries its level has repeatedly risen and fallen by about 20 m. At the
present time the level of the Caspian Sea is systematically falling, but
this is caused by anthropogenic as well as by natural factors. Climatic
changes reflect changes in general circulation of the earth's atmosphere
and without doubt, in ger,eral circulation of ocean waters.
There are a number of hypotheses which attempt to explain climatic changes,
but ror the time being there is no physically validated theory which could
give an exhaustive explanation of this phenomenon. From our point of view
it is feasible to separate attempts at explaining climatic changes trans-
pj.ring over the course of hundreds and tens of millions of years and those
changec which have been observed during the last 10 or 20 miller.ia.
The reason for the first could be both phenomena external relative to our
planet, stich as the intensity of solar radiation and changes in the earth's
orbit,and phenomena developing on the planet, such as the formation and move-
mEnt of the continents and the formation of mountain ranges, volcanic activ-
ity, whose products (dust, gases) changed atmospheric transparency, and a
number of others.
Climatic changes over the course of recent millenia, whatever factors may
have caused them, occurred with maintenance of the earth's orbit, the
structure of the earth's surface (positioning of the continents and oceans,
mountain ranges, etc.) and, in all probability, with retention of the very
same nature and intensiry of solar radiation. This makes it possible to as-
sume that on the earth, with its present-day structure, there may exist not
one, but several states of equilibrium of the entire complex of hydrometeor-
ological processes transpiring in the atmosphere and ocean, that is, climates
somewtiat differing from one another. It can also be assumed that a trans-
itian from one state to another occurs und.er the influence of relatively _
insignificant factors. Complex direct and.r.eversible relationships among
all climate-forming processes make it possible to consider possible the
appearance, in some cases, of self-developir,g reactions and triggering ef-
fects. An evaluation made Uy one of the outstanding Soviet climatologists,
M. I. Budyko [1], shows that the present-day climate and clima.tes similar
to it are i:n general unstable. In his opinion, two types of cl.imates have
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a stable character: uniformly warm, characteristic for the Mesozoic, which,
as indi.caL-ed above, lasted for several hundred million years, and a com-
plete glaciativn of the entire earth, which evidently never occurred in
the earth's his tory.
In the opinion of some researchers, the principal reason for both major cli-
matic changes in the past, which was mentioned before, and the relatively
rapid alternation of glaciations in the Quaternary, is the changing inten-
sity of volcanic activity, accompanied by the ejection of dust into the at-
mosphere and changing its transparency; in the opinion of others, it is
changes in the earth's orbit, etc. The objective of this article does not
include an analysis of such hypotheses. It is important for us to emphasize
that climate during the course of the entire history of the planet changed
, under the influence of some natural factors, and therefore there is no basis
for assuming that there cannot be such changes in the future. During recent
years many publications have appeared in the scientific and general litera-
ture on the tendencies seemingly appearing at the present time (1960's-
1970's) to a systematic and relatively very rapidly developing cooling in
- the northern hemisphere, corresponding to a restructuring of general cir-
culation of the atmosphere, major changes in the quantity of precipitation
in different zones of the earth, etc. It should be said that a careful an-
alysis, carried out by many scientists, in particular, a large group of
Soviet scientists, indicated that such assumptions have no basis. In the
' next f ew decades, in our opinion, it is possible to exnect small climatic
changes, similar to those which have occurred duri.ng the last 100-200.years.
Anthropogenic Climatic Changes
The modification of nature is an invariable property of human society, like
any other graup of living creatures. Mankind could not develop without
transforming elements of the envi.rotlment. The principal forms of modifica-
tion, which are of the greatest interest for the considered theme, in our
opinion, are:
a) Transformation of structure of the planetary surface in connection with
the cutting of forests, plowing of the steppe, melioration, formation of
large reservoirs, allocation of considerable sectors of the earth's surface
for the construction of different struct.ures, etc. Such a transformation
changes the reflectivity of the earth's stirface and its "roughness," which
has an effect on the energy balance and local peculiarities of atmospheric
circulation.
b) Transformation of the moisture cycle. An ever-greater part of the runoff
of rivers is being expended on irrigation and the needs of production, as a
resulC of which there is an increase in evaporation on the continents and a
decrease in runoff into the ocean. Evidently, as time passes all the runoff
of rivers will be used for these purposes. This will not change the gell.eral
cycling of moisture on the planet, but the reiationship of its elements in
different geographic regions will be different, which will cause a corres-
ponding redistrtbution of elements of the atmospheric heat regime.
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Evaporation, condensation and crystallization of moisture are, as is well
known, important elements of the atmospheric energy balance.
c) Trans-formation of the energy balance. The heat balance of the "earth-
atmosphere" system changes both in connection with the change in atmospheric
transparency, the principal role in which is now being played by the carbon
dioxide released during the combustion of fuel,and as a result of the direct
release of heat in the production of electric energy and the consumption of
all types of energy on the earth.
Since the system of climate-forming processes in a rough approximation can
be equated to a heat engine, it is evidently changes in elements of the en-
ergy, especially the heat balance, which are of the greatest importance in
possible climatic changes. Local (over areas of about 10,000-100,000 km2)
anthropogenic climatic changes have already been noted. For example, in
cities the temperature is somewhat higher, near reservoirs the wind is
stronger and the annual variability of temperature is less, etc. Hawever,
at the present time it is still not clear what level of change of some par-
ticular element of climate-forming processes is adequate for the modifica-
tion of climate on regional and global scales. What ma.y be the consequences
of modification are also unknown.
Most researchers feel that the principal factor in the anthropogenic modif-
icat:ton of climate is the release of carbon dioxide in the process of combus-
tion of fuel, the transformation of the planetary cycling of this gas and
an increase in its atmospheric concentration, which will increase the so-
called "greenhouse effect." Budyko [1], Bolin [4J, Bass, Heller, Allston
and Rotti [3], F.lohn [5] and many others assume that the maintenance of
the present-day rates of growth of energy production due to the combustion
of fossil fuel will lead to an increase in the C02 concentration in the at-
mospllere by several tens of percent after 50-100 years, which in turn will
cause an increase in atmospheric temperature and substantial climatic changes.
In many cases in both the popular and scientific literature the opinion is
expressed that an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration, as well as
the direct release of heat, in general will lead to a more or less uniform
increase in the temperature of the lower layer of the atmosphere, which in
turn will cause a general warming, melting of glaciers, etc. However, from
our point of view this is not so simple. A temperature increase, being mani-
fested to the greatest degree in the Arctic, will decrease the temperature
difference between the polar regions and the equatorial zone. This should
in some way change the general nature of atmospheric circulation, for ex-
ample, lessen the flow of moist air flowing from west to east, from the
ocean onto the European continent, etc. For the time being it is impossible
' to evaluate what will be the consequence of this change, and in this connec-
tion, what climate will be established in different parts of the earth. In
any case it is difficult to expect that this will be only a uniform warming
over the earth's entire surface.
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Another hypothesis, frequently encountered in the literature and from our
point of view equally unsubstantiated, is that climatic changes can be caused
only by a change in the total heat balance of the planet, associated with
the use of fossil or atomic fuel. From this point of view, the broad use
of direct solar energy, the energy of the wind, rivers, etc. will not play
a role. However, not only a change in the entire heat balance of our planet,
hut also a redistribution of its component elements over the earth's sur-
face, that is, the sources and places of heat consumption, their strengthen-
ing or weakening, will inevitably cause climatic fluctuations.
T.n this connection it is of great interest and importance to examine changes
- on regional, and possibly on global scales, caused by a further growth of
the existing major sources of heat, whose influence is already appreciable
in the local characteristics of climate. It carL bc postulated that the
further development of large industrial regions (such as almost all of West-
~ ern Europe, the southeastern United States, the middle part of the eastern
shores of Japan), accompanied by an increase in the energy used by several
tens of times, will have the result that they will become similar to natural
centers of atmospheric circulation. Some estimates of the consequences of
the ir_crease in heat released by this type of sources (they are frequently
called "heat islands") have already been made. As one of the examples we
can cite a study by Hafele, et al. [6], whose authors calculated that the
construction of two major centers for power production (for example, thermo-
nuclear complexes), one near the shores of Great Britain, and the other
along the western shores of the Pacific Ocean, in the"Canton region, would
cause a change in atmospheric circulation over the southern part of thP Euro-
pean continent capable of shifting zones of precipitation, which would cause
frequent droughts in some regions and abundant moistening in others.
Recently many studies have also appeared which contain estimates of the addi-
tional heat, beginning with which a change in the general circulation of the
atmosphere could begin, leading to the transformation of climate on region-
al and global scales. According to most of these estimates, the additional
heat of anthropogenic origin, constituting about 1-2% of the heat received
by the earth from the sun, or the release of heat over great sectors of the
earth's surface, on the order of a million square kilometers, leading to an
increase in the mean temperature in this region by several degrees, already
can exert an influence, at least on the regional characteristics of general
circulation of the earth's atmosphere. At the present time the greatest at-
tention in the problem of the influence of man's activity on climate is be-
ing devoted to the increase in energy production, bu~ without question,
other forms of transformation of the medium, the environment, by man in one
way or another are reflected in climate.
w
With respect to the quantitative estimates, it goes without saying that they
are of an extremely approximate character, but on the basis of present-day
knowledge of climate-forming processes it can be asserted with adequate as-
surance that the present-day activity of man is already leading to apprec-
iable, although local, changes in some characteristics of climate and that
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, with a furthez- increase in energy production by several tens of times (as
is entirely possible in the course of the next 100-200 years) climatic
_ changes will begin on a regional and then on a global scale.
Purposeful Modification of Climate
The possibi.lities and means for purposeful modification of climate have been
discussed in science over a long period of time. As is well lcnown, the most
different points of view are being expressed on these questions. In Qur opin-
ion, it is of interest to examine whether in principle it is possible to
bring about a purposeful transformation of climate, how this can be accomplished
and what the purpose may be.
If the considerations on inadvertent anthropogenic changes expressed earlier
are correct, in principle it is evident that purposeful climatic changes
are als.o poss.ible. It goes without saying that for their accomplishment it
is. necessary to have a quantitative theory of climate which would make it
possible to plan and compute the measures required for the intended trans-
formations. The creation of such a theory cannot be regarded as an impossible
scientific task.
Since, as mentioned above, the totaZity of climate-forming processes can be
equated to some heat engine, the changes in whose operaLion most frequently
can be associated with deviations in the values of its component elements,
then by creating such changes intentionally we could cause similar trans-
formations of different climatic characteristics. For example, in all prob-
ability, it would be possible to bring abaut climatic changes, redistribut-
ing the gaj.ns and losses of heat at the earth's surface, for example, by
constructing major centers for producing and using energy in some places
suitable for this and appropriately regulating their work.
In definite regiuns over a great area it is possible to change the albedo,
which, as was mentioned above, would exert an influence on the heat balance.
Some researchers, for example, propose for this purpose the creation of thin
films on the ocean surface. (Incidentally, contamination of the ocean by
petroleum already creates such a film.) It is possible to reduce atmospheric
transparency on a regional and even on a global scale by saturating its upper
layers by different aerosols. Independent calculations by different srientists
indicate that both a change in albedo over great areas in the polar regions
and the discharging of aerosols into the upper layers of the atmosphere
could be brought about even at the present time if for this purpose use was
nade of a considerable part of the civil aircraft of several countries for
some time. However, it 3eems irrational to decrease the receipts of solar en-
ergy at the earth for the purpose of balancing the increase in energy produc-
Cion on our planet.
It is assumed that one of the means for modifying climate is intervention in
the dynamics of the atmosphere or ocean. It is known that mountain ranges ex-
ert a consjderable influence on the climate of both adjacent and remote, ter-
ritories. It is possible that not particularly grandiose, but special7_y
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constructed apparatus, for example, for deflecting air currents upwai�d,
could p]ay the same ro1e, since when there are vertical movemente of air
masses positive feedbacks and self-supporting reactions can arise. It is
known that spontaneous deviations of sea currents from their normal trajec-
tories cause substantial changes in the nature of weather. Such, for ex-
_ ample, is the effect of the sporadic deviations of the snall current E1
Nino along the sfiores of Peru. A long-term change in the tra,jectories of
currents could be brought about by the creation of special hydraulic struc-
tures. They would have dimensions a thousand times greater than present-day
dams, but there are no fundamental obstacles to this.
It would be possible to mention some other fundamentally possible ways to
1 bring about the purposeful modification of climate. Long-term and signif-
icant transformations. of the heat balance, as well as the dynamics of the
atmosphere or ocean,, which were mentioned above, without fail introduce
changes into the generay circulation of the earth's atmosphere. However,
~ taking into account the extremely probable instability of climate-forming
processes, it can be assumed that even a brieF, one-tire intervention can
lead to irreversible changes in circulation. Thus, according to the comput-
ations of a number of scientists, the one-time annihilation of a consider-
able part of the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean can restructure atmospheric
circulatian in such a way that it will never be restored. This would lead
to substantial climatic changes on a global scale.
The evaluation of the possibility of inadvertent climatic changes, as well
as formulation of inethnds for its purposeful transformation, insistently
requires a study of the possible limiting values of different forms of mod-
ification of ineteorological processes in which irreversible changes in atmo-
spheric circulation would be excluded.
~ It is necessary to examine from the social and political point of view the
question as to whether it is possible to have a climatic change in some def-
inite region of the earth or over the entire earth as a result of the ac-
tions taken in any oCher limited region. In other words, can some country,
by the actions taken in their territory, somehow exert an influence on the
climate of another country situated in a different region of the earth. This
seems improbable to me. Climatic changes (climate, not weather) on a global
scale can probably be brought about as a result of the joint actions of nany
countries situated in different regions of the earth.
However, there are other opinions. For example, the leading American scien-
tist E. Teller, 20 years ago considered it possible to modify climate for
military purposes [2]. For this reason the proposal made by our country in
1972 that an international agreement should be concluded on the banning of
modification of the.environment for military purposes was entirely timely,
and the ratification of this agreement by ma.ny countries, which has already
taken place, cannot but cause support from scientists working in the earth
sciences field.
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' Thus, from our point of view climate in the future can be transformed as
a result of man's purposeful actions. It goes without saying that it is
entirely possible that the means for modifying climate will not be used
for ttie purpose of transformation, but rather for the stabilization of
the presently exieting climate, since the economics and the en;ire life
af mankind have been adapted to it.
Influence of Climatic Changes on Mankind
~ Climatic conditions and their changes always exert an appreciable influence
on man. This feeling is shared by all specialists, but the points of view
~ r egarding specific peculiarities of this influence may bP different.
I. P. Gerasimov feels that climatic changes in the geological past were the
principal factor governing the nature, and in particular, the rates of de-
velopment of our remote ancestors, and possibly was the factor responsible
for the senaration of "thinking man" from the animal world. The well-known
American geographer Huntington in his time postulated that natural condi-
tions, and climate in particular, determine all the peculiarities of econ-
omics, the techn.ical and cultural level, and even the social structure of
society, which are under their influence.
_ We have already cited the example, well known from history, of the death of
the Scandinavian colonies in Greenland as a result of the onset of a small
glacial period. The expansion and contraction of desert zones in different
regions of the earth have repeatedly 1ed to the disappearance of societies
and civilizations extremely well developed for their time. Fluctuations in
the Ievel of the Caspian Sea, repeated each 200-250 years, introduced sub-
stantial changes into the life of the peoples populating its shores. Even
brief (lasting one or two years) deviations of ineteorological elements
from the norm, as is well known, can result in severe, if not catastrophic
consequences for many peoples. An example of this is the recent drought in
the Sahel region.
In addition to what has already been said at the beginning of this article
ab out an increase in the "sensitivity" of modern civilization to the values
of environmental parameters, it must also be taken into account that sci-
entiric and technical progress will enable us to live and act under more
and more extremal environmental conditions, and the increase in the numbers
of population and the growth of production and consumption will make this
necessary. At the same time, in such a situation even relatively small
changes in natural conditions can lead to far-reaching consequences. For
example, if almost all the runoff of a major river is used for irrigating
agricultural fields, by virtue of natural factors a decrease by possibly
15-20% can result in a marked decrease in food production in this region.
From this point of view ou.r ancestors had lesser possibilities but greater
reserves.
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It is scarcely necessary to cite further examples of the effect of changes
ir climatic conditions on human activity; they are well known and have
the most diverse forms. Changes in temperature, cloud cover and the quantity
of precipitation first of alI affect agriculture. Temperature changes in
different ocean areas exert a aignificant influence on fishing, etc. The
close relatiionships which now exist among difierent br3nches of economic
acttvity within each country and also the relationships intertwining the
economic processes of many countries with one another have the result
that an effect on any one branch of economic activity inevitably will lead
to far-reaching consequences in the entire economy of a large region and
even the entire earth. It therefore follows that the prediction of the
future state of climatic conditions on the earth for tens of years in ad-
vance and the use of such a forecast for the planning of future actions
have even now acquired enormous importance. This is becoming increasingly
understandable not only to professional climatologists, but also to polit-
ical and economic leaders and a wide part of the population in any country.
Mankind's Strategy.
Future climatic changes are inevitable. They are becoming appreciable and
may be irreversible in the next few decades. They will have a local, re-
gional and global character.
In this connection it is obvious that it is necessary to formulate some
strategy, that is, a system of preplanned long-term actions which for man-
kind would ensure the avoidance of negative consequences of possiUle cli-
matic changes. The implementation of a program for such long-term measures
should possibly begin in the next few decades. If sma11 local changes in
climate can be caused, and evidently prevented by measures carried out in
the very same region, in one country, then regional and especially global
_ climatic changes must involve global circulation of the earth's atmosphere.
Accordingly, in this case the strategy must provide not only and not so
much for local effects as for measures undertaken on a regional and on a
general planetary scale.
What are the principal elements of such a strategy? It goes without saying
that the f irst and foremost is prediction of climatic change. This is a
very complex problem in natural science. It requires the formulation of a
quantitative physical theory of climate, the creation of inethods for comput-
ing its changes under the influence of different agents.
As is well known, ever-increasing importance is being attached to work on
these prob lems. A rapidly increasing number of scientists are being drawn
into this work. Although the problem is exceedingly difficult, in our opin-
ion the situation is not hopeless. Science has always solved problems
which have become timely for mankind. Proceeding on this basis, and also
taking into account that ways are even now being projected for solving
these prob lems, we can be sure that the natural science aspect of the
problem will be solved, although this will probably require much time.
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It is also necessary iri the future to have a very high degree of inter-
- national scientific cooperation because the collection af the global in-
formation is needec: for computing climatic changes., creation of theories,
requiring, in particular, the us.e of the very largest electronic comput-
ers, the checking of theories by means of global scale experiments. All
this is possible only if there is a well-developed international scien-
tific cooperation. We already have some experience in carrying out s uch
programs. Such was the Atlantic Tropical Experiment GARP, and such also
is the planned and already initiated program of the First Global Experiment
and some other international scientific investigations.
J
The second element of the strategy is an evaluation of the consequences to
_ which different natural or anthropogenic climatic changes can lead. Here
the natural science problem is closely intertwined with the socioeconomic
' problem. The influence of climatic changes on economics, like the influ-
, ence of economics on climate, is being evalua ted for the future. According-
ly, the future economics of any country must b e taken into account in this
case. For example, it is necessary to know what characteristics agricul-
ture, the water use system, all industry, etc. will have after several
decades. Only in this case wi11 it be possible to evaluate both the pos-
sible anthropogenic changes in climate and the consequences of the pre-
dicted climatic changes on human activity. Such an evaluation is possible
only on the basis of an allowance for the long-term plans for the develop-
ment of a country, region, world and mankind as a whole.
The socialist an3 many developing countries aiso have long-range development
plans. It goes without saying that these plans are still not perfect. Some-
times the planned development of some branch of the economy occurs more
rapidly than was intended, sometimes more slowly. But in one way or another
the planned measures are being put into practice. However, many countries
do not have prepared complex plans and their development resembles a random
process. Accordingly, future activity and the state of different branches of
their econonry can be evaluated in the form of a singular "forecast."
Then, in order to evaluate how favorably or unfavorably the climatic changes
may exert an influence on different branches of the economy of a country,
a region or the entire world, we must settle on some definite point of view.
It must be determined what is good and what is bad. From what point of view
should we evaluate the effeci;s of climatic changes on the economy? From the
point of view of an individual firm or large monopoly, from the point of
view of the inhabitants of a particular city or the entire population of
the country, or, finally, all mankind? In selecting thE point of view we
must take into account not only the dirzction and prospects for development
of the economy, but also its purpose. For achieving what goals can climatic
changes be favorable? I scarcely wi11 error if I say that most scientists
consider this purpose to be the vaguely expressed "welfare of all mankind."
However, this is a very complex matter.
A number of economists and sociologists rather recently published studies
in which they endeavored to delve into this problem. Such, for example,
was a study by a group of scientists carried out under the direction of
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. the well-known American economist Laszlo [7]. In this study he investigat-
ed the goals which different countries in the world were striving for,
the goals which have been set by the governments of different countries,,
different groups in the population, international organizations, religious
societies, etc. Laszlo was forced to draw the conclusion, obvious for us,
a that the real goals of the countries, to which are really directed all
the economic and other activity of the peoples and governments, exist in
the socialist states. which are planning and directing their development.
With respect to the capitalis.t countries, such a concept does not exist- -
there, there being only wishes with respect to the further path of develop-
ment, different for different organizations and population groups. Natural-
ly, there are no definite goals or plan for their attainmeiit by mankind as
a whalE. Laszlo calls for rhe development, adoption and pursuit of some
goals rational for all mankind, to a"revolution of goals," as he expresses
himself.
The third element of the strategy is the formula tion of recommendations on
such measures as would make it possible to avoid negative consequences of
climatic changes or to avoid the changes themselves. Such recommendations
are being developed even now and are being set forth in the studies of very
many scientists. For example, it is frequently proposed that there be a
sharp reduction in the use of fuel for obtaining energy for the purpose of
avoiding an increase in atmospheric content of C02, that measures be adopt-
ed for increasing the absorption of carbon dioxide by the biosphere, that
there be a restriction on the production and consumption of energy in gen-
eral for the purpose of maintaining the heat balance.of the planet, etc.
Some scientists in rather outspoken form express their fears that in the
event that such recommendations are not implemented mankind will have to
contend with dangerous climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. For the
most part the recommendations are directed to the maintenance of pY-esent-
day climate, although some also feel that it can be changed in a"better"
direction.
However, to whose address are such recommendaticns directed and who should
implement them? Most frequently they mention "politicians" or some "policy
makers." It should be noted that virtually all the studies of western sci-
entists devoted to thls problem end with an appeal to the mentioned indi-
viduals. Appeals to "policy makers" are nor by any means being made only
by climatologists at the present time.
Possible climatic changes constitute only one oi the so-called "global prob-
lems" with which mankind is now faced. These probitms include those of en-
suring the world's entire population with food, reduction of the currently
existing gap in the economic, technical and other levels of the developed
and developing countries, methods for producing energy, rational use of
water resources, resources of the ocean and space at a planetary scale, and
a number of others. An ever-increasing scientific literature is devoted to
this subject. From our point of view it is important that the authors of
all the investigations arrive at the conclusion that there is a need for
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,
common, globally correlated measures of many countries in order to solve
each of these problems and their totality.
Ttie recommended measures vary. For example, the Meadows group, in the wide-
ly known study THE LIMITS TO GROWTH [9], mentions the need of stopping all
the development and growth of mankind. Mesarovic and Pestel [10], improving
the computation meth.od, conclude that development is possible, but that it
must be correlated on a planetary scale. The well-known American economist
W. Leontiev, and a group of specialists [8],,shows that within the existing
natural framework the development of mankind is possible in accordance with
several scenarios, although he does not say how to ensure the sequence of
any of them. A large group under the direction of the we11-known economist
Tinbergen [11] gives rer_ommendations on the formulation of a"new world
order," a new system for interaction among countries at a planetary scale,
such that the economy of the countries and all their activity as a whole
will be guided by some supranational center to which the governments must
delegate some of their sovereign rights. Incidentally, Tinbergen mentions
"pol.icy makers," on the basis of whose agreement the desired restructuring
of tiie world order could be brought about. Such, in his opinion, are: the
governments of countries, international organizations (especially the UN)
and cnulti.national monopolies.
jJe will not examine here the tnteresting and important matter of the goals,
stimulA and methods for controlling the economy of countries. We note only
thar they are extremely different in countries with different social systems.
Nevertheless, the correlation of ineasures by different countries over our
ent:ire planet for the purpose of moderating and then solving the developing
global problems of modern civilization is even now very important and is
becoming completely necessary in the course of the next few decades. It can
ho acliieved only by the cooperation of sovereign states on the basis of equal
rights and mutual advantage. Such a correlation of ineasures and cooperation
is taking place cven now in fields where the interests of different coun-
tries coincide. The bJorld Meteorological Organization has been active for
Riare than a hundred years. The World Health Organization and many others
are succe.ssfully operating. Cooperation is developing in the field of pres-
ervation of the enviranment, agreements have been concluded on the banning of
caud[fication of the environrnent for military and hostile purposes, on pre-
, vention of oceariic contamination, etc.
It is very important that in examining different problems, we approach one
and the same thing from different sides: an understanding of the need for
intensifying and strengthening international cooperation. It goes without
saying that the cooperation of different countries in the solution of global
prablems, for example, in preparing mankind for the consequences of pos-
sib7.e climatic changes, is immeasurably more complex than in the activity
of the Idorld Weather Service. However, it is still more necessary. And the
process of relaxation of international relationships, developing during the
last decade despite all the resistance of its opponents, inspires in us an
assurance that cooperation will come about in the most different fields.
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The adaptation of the world economy to new climatic conditions, and in
particular, the purposeful modificatton of climate on a global scale with
adherence to some mandatory conditions, is possible. The most important of
these conditions are as follows:
prevention of a world conflict and the establishment of a stable and dur-
able peace, since only under conditions of peaceful co-existence of coun-
tries with different social systems is it possible to cooperate closely and
carry out the correlated global-scale measures, whatever they may be;
cessation of the arms race and disarmament, since only in this case is
it possible to allocate great material resources for carrying out the neces-
sary measures.
It is easy to understand that the solution of any other global problems of
modern civilization is also possible only with adherence to these condi-
tions.
I am not sure that at the present time we will attain agreement on precise-
ly how climate will change in the next few decades, but I assume that we
will all be unanimous in that mankind must formulate a definite strategy
in making ready f.or climatic changes ar.d that peace, disarmament and coop-
eration are the basis for such a strategy.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Budyko, M. I., KLIMAT I ZHIZN' (Climate and Life), Leningrad, Gidro-
meteoizdat, 1971.
2. PRAVDA (Truth), 28 November 1957.
3. Bass, D. F., et al., THE GLOBAL CARBON DIOXIDE PROBLEM, Oak Ridge Nation-
al Laboratory, U.S.A., 1976.
4. Balin, B., ENERGY AND CLIMATE, Secretariat of Future Studies, Stockholm,
1976.
5. Flohn, H., MAN-INDUCED CHANGES IN HEAT BUDGET AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON
CLIMATE. GLOBAL CHEMICAL CYCLES AND THEIR ALTERATIONS BY MAN, Berlin,
1477.
6. Hafele, W., et al., "Possible Impacts of Waste Heat on Global Climate
Patterns," SECOND STATUS REPORT OF THE IIASA PROJECT ON ENERGY SYSTEMS,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 1976.
7. Laszlo, E., et al., GOALS FOR MANKIND, E, P. Dutton, New York, 1977.
8. Leontiev, W., THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY: A UNITED NATIONS STUDY,
N. Y., 0. U. P., 1977
9. Meadows, D. M., et al., THE LIMITS TO GROWTH, N. Y., Universe Books,
1972.
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10. Mesarovic, M., Pestel, E., MANKIND AT THE TURNING POINT, N. Y., Read-
er's Digest Press, 1974. 11. Tinbergen, J., et al., RESHAPING THE INTERNATIONAT, ORDER (RIO); A
REPORT TO THE CLUB OF ROME, N. Y., E. P. Dutton, 1976.
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UDC 551.(583+509.33)
MODELING OF CLIMATIC CHANGES AND PROBLEMS IN LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 25-36
[Article by Academician G. I. Marchuk, Computation Center Siberian Depart-
ment USSR Academy of Sciences, submitted for publication 13 March 1979]
Abstract: This is a concise review of investi-
gations and problems in the field of numerical
modeling of general circulation of the atmo-
sphere and ocean, climate and numerical methods
for long-range weather forecasting. The author
sets forth a new approach to the problem of
long-range weather forecasting and evaluation
of climatic variations. An international 7.ong-
range program is proposed for investigations
of interaction between the atmosphere and oceans
for the purpose of long-range foreca.sting of
weather and the theory of climate.
[Text] World Ocean and Its Role in Climate Formation. In a stud.y of climate
it is important to know what changes or fluctuationc it experiences and in
the course of what characteristic time scales; thi5 may be thousands, hun-
dreds or tens of years. Accordingly, we must deal with epochal, secular or
so-called "local-time" climates. Each of these climates has its own tem-
poral and spatial scales for the averaging of fields of ineteorological ele-
ments.
In a report entitled "Physical Principles and Modeling of Climate" [22] it
was emphasized that "...the physical processes responsible for the forma-
tion of climate are the same as in weather phenomena."
The most important of these processes is the rate with which heat enters in-
to the climatic system, the only source of which, to be sure, is solar radi-
ation. The atmosphere and ocean react to this heating by the development of
systems of winds and currents which transport the heat from regions where
it is received in excess to regions with a deficit of thermal energy.
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W}iereas physical processes in the atmosphere, lasting from 10-1 to 10 days,
for Che most part determine weather phenomena, processes in the ocean with
time scales from 10-1 to 103 years are responsible for climatic variations.
Csticnates reveal that the heat flows in the atmosphere and ocean directed
toward the poles are comparable in magnitude. This means that the world
ocean plays an important role in the formation of climate and its changes.
At the present time we know of a number of inechanisms determining the in-
fluence of the oceans on the atmosphere [5]. In liis interesting empirical in-
vestigations Bjerknes j181 established a correlation between long-range tem-
perature anomaliea of the Pacific Ocean surface in the tropical zone and
the system of winds in its northeastern part. These anomalies are evidently
- a result of weakening of the Trades in the southern hemisphere, and accord-
ingly, equatorial upwelling.
Wyrtki [44] studied the influence of anomalies in the Trades field in the
western part of the Pacific Ocean on the subsequent long-term anomaly of
ocean circulation in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. These investi-
gations made it possible to explain the E1 Nino effect as a result of weak-
ening of upwelling due to weakening of the Trades.
Namias [34] studied the effect of long-term anomalies of ocean surface tem-
perature in the middle latitudes during the summer seasons on atmospheric
temperature anomalies on the North American continent in the subsequent
auCumn and winter seasons.
Musayelyan [11] discovered asynchronous correlations between anomalies of
summer cloud cover over the North Atlantic and winter air temperature anom-
alies over the European continent.
Fletcher established the presence of atmospheric anomalies which could be
detected over considerable distances and over time periods up to eight
years. It can be assumed that they were propagated through the world ocean.
However, the enumerated mechanisms of the influence of anomalies of ocean
surface temperature on the atmosphere possibly constitute only the simplest
cases of long-term thermal effect of the ocean on the atmosphere.
Ln general outlines, the process of formation of long-term temperature anom-
alies can be represented in the following way [8].
Cloud systems are formed over the oceans. If the cloud cover is less than
the climatic norm, it transmits more solar radiation and the surface water
layer is heated more intensively. If an anomalously weak cloud cover sets
in .for a period of about a month or season, a considerable heating of the
ocean is observed in this region. The heated waters are transported by cur-
rents into the northern regions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. They
reach regions where in the surface layer of the ocean, under the influence
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of low air temperatures, a zone of vertical instability is formed. This
leads to powerful convective movements which transfex the accumulated heat
from the deep layers of the ocean into the atmosphere. This heat heats the
air in a particular region. The cold polar air near this region creates
sharp temperature contrasts, which leads to the genesis of powerful cyclones.
The latter are transported to the east by the middle-latitude planetary
flow, transgorting portions of heat onto the continents a1d creating zones
of warming there.
Evaluation of Climatic Changes and the Sensitivity Problem
There are now two main approaches to the problem of evaluating climatic vari-
ations. The first assumes the possibility of substantial climatic variations
due to weak stability of atmospheric processes. Under these conditions even
with relatively small variations in the parameters the climatic changes c3n
become significant. A quantitative estimate of possible climatic variations
in this case requires the formulation of precise models, which are now only
being developed. Therefore, in this case the problem is reduced to the pos-
_ sible realization of one or another qualitative picture of elimatic changes,
which more likely will give rise to new problems rather than solving them.
The second approach [30] is based on the assumption of a relative stability
of climate relative to variations of the parameters of the climatic system.
This approach assumes that quantitative evaluations of climatic variations
based on the theoMy of perturbations are possible. This will make it pos-
- sib le to attempt to predict climatic trends for several years in advance,
using variations of the parameters.
Lg = F, (1)
L*(P * = F*. (2)
Here the first equation can represent in operational form a system of full
equations in hydrothermodynamics or, for example, in a simpler case, the
heat transfer equation. The second, conjugate equation follows from the
Lagrange identity,
Combining these equations and carrying out the necessary transformations,
we arrive at prognostic formulas for different functionals: this can be,
for example, the mean temperature anomaly over a quite large region:
- 3T = f( T , (p Sc~l, 806 2,...). (3)
This approach to study of climatic variations can be regarded from the
point of view of the sensitivity of mathematical models of climate to vari-
ations of the input parameters. As such parameters we can use climatic var-
iations of cloud cover, dirE:ct radiation, albedo, snow cover, ice edge, etc.
- "Sensitivity" determines the degree of stability of the system relative to
variations of external factors and to changes in the internal structure of
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models. Human activity can be included in the model as one of the factors
in the climatl.c system, together with other factors of natural origin.
A number of investigations of the sensitivity of a climatic system have been
carried out using models with few parameters: Budyko [2], Mitchell [32],
Sellers [37], Lindsen and Farrel [26], Schneider, et al. [21], and with
models of general circulation of the atmosphere: Mintz, Arakawa [16, 17],
Washington [41], Gates, Manabe, Wetfierald [29, 43], Schneider, Chervin
[21], and others. We will not give a full review of all these investiga-
tions here. They have been described in special publications and reports
of Doctor Gates, Doctor Mason [31], and others. However, we will discuss
the general principles of numerical modeling in investigations of sensitiv-
ity.
The authors of the above-mentioned studies employ the direct modeling method,
which at the present time is employed most frequently in investigations of
sensitivity or response. The essence of this method is as follows. The prob-
lem is solved with unperturbed and perturbed sets of parameters and the
sought-for parameter is computed as the difference between these solutions.
In numerical experiments the direct modeling method is simplest and most
un.iversal.
In many cases, however, it is necessary to determine very small variations
of functionals of the solution, such as temperature values averaged in time
and space. It appears that it is possible to use the direct relationships
between variations of the input data and variations of the functionals.
. These relationships are realized through sensitivity or response function-
als.
If as the unperturbed state we take actual information on the basic climate-
forming factors, and not solution of a mathematical model of climate, the
formulas of the theory of perturbations will enable us to compute small
variations of the most important climatic functionals without solving the
direct and conjugate problems repeatedly.
In our opinion, this is the main-importance of the theory of perturbations
applicable to an evalua.tion of climatic variations.
Climatic Models
During the last 20 years, beginning with a study by Phillips [35] (1956), we
have observed an explosion of ideas and methods in numerical modeling of
atmospheric processes. It was demonstrated in the mentioned study that
despite significant simplifications introduced into the model, it is pos-
sible to obtain solutions with a qua.litatively correct description of the
principal characteristics of atmospheric circulation. We have also come to
an understanding of what phystcal processes are most important to describe
in order to more or less correctly reproduce the principal characteristics
of the atmosphere. In thi:s field a fundamental contribution was made by
Smagorinsky [38] and Manabe [28], Mintz and Arakawa [16], Leith [25],
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Kasahara and Washington [23], Mason, Gilchrist in their investigations of
numerical modeling of general circulation of the atmosphere, and also by
Charney [20], Thompson 1401, Lorenz [27], Phillips [35], Gates [21], Monin,
Obukhov [10], Kondrat'yev [3], Kurbatkin [24] and many others in studies of
the physics of large-scale circulations.
Now we will discuss the most typi:cal approaches to solution of these prob-
lems. Virtually all the models formulated for describing the atmosphere
are based on the full equations of hydrodynamics in a quasistatic approx-
imation, written in different coordinate systems. Numerical (finite-diff er-
ence and spectral) schemes, used in this case, are usually constructed in
such a way that there will be adherence to the same conservation laws which
the initial system of differential equations has. Among the many schemes
employed at the present time we will note the Arakawa scheme [17], which
is becoming popular, which under definite conditions has two quadratic in-
variants, and also implicit, absolutely stable finite-difference schemes
based on the splitting method. Recently preference has been given to higher-
order (than second) schemes, but nevertheless, for a good description of
eddies it is necessary to have a higher spatial resolution.
An important problem in the formulation of models is parameterization of
processes on a"sub-grid" scale, especially convective processes, which
are responsible for the development of tropical disturbances. It must also
be noted that great attention is being devoted to the parameterization of
processes transpiring in the boundary layers, the influence of orographic
nonuniformities of the earth's surface and the problem of the upper boun-
dary condition in the atmosphere.
Despite the fact that in the field of modeling of atmospheric circulation
there are still many unsolved problems, it can be said with assurance
that meteorologists have achieved a high level of understanding of the
mechanisms of atmospheric processes.
Whereas in the first numerical experiments with models of general circula-
tion the emphasis was on a qualitative description of the principal proper-
ties only of atmospheric circulation, at the present time we are dealing
with a quantitative description of the climatic characteristics of the at-
mosphere and ocean as a coupled system.
Tt is possible to construct a hierarchy of models created for the modeling
of climate and its variations based on a description of the dynamic charac-
teristics of the system. The simplest models (models of zero dimensional-
ity) are models based on the thermodynamic energy balance equation (Budyko,
[10], Sellers [37] and others). Despite their simplicity, the "zero" dimen-
sionality models can be used in paleoclimatological investigations, the
importance of which has been emphasized in a report by Academician I. P.
Gerasimov. [Reference is to the report by I. P. Gerasimov at the World Cli-
mate Conference (Geneva, 12-23 Fehruary 1979).] More complex first-dimen-
sionality models, so-called convective radiation balance models, allow the
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rutc Urrtl;ltil, UJt UNLY
introduction of the vertical distrihution of atmospheric characteristics
' (Manabe, Wetherald [291 and others), and in our opinion, make it possible
to model the characteristics of secular climate. Using them it is also pos-
sible to study effects governed by the dynamics of the upper layer in the
ocean.
Since it is impossible to model changes in climate of the atmosphere with-
out describing dynamics of the ocean, the problem of �ormulating joint
models of the ocean and atmosphere is becoming especially important. This
will require major computation facilities, since the ocean, having high
characteristic relaxation times, also has lesser scales of energetically
significant waves than the atmosphere. This, in turn, requires a high spa-
tiat resolution. General ideas in problems of modeling of ocean dynamics have been developed
in the investigations of Stommel [39], Munk [33], Sarkisyan [12], Liney-
kin [6], tJelander [42], Robinson [36], Veronis and others. Several numer-
ical models of general circulation of the ocean have been developed on the
basis of heat (or density), momentum and saltnity transfer equations (Bry-
an [19], Sarkisyan j121, Kochergin [4] and others). Nevertheless, even spec-
ially developed finite-difference schemes do not completely remove the
above-mentioned limitations involved in modeling of the oceans.
The next step for a definite class of problems is the formulation of joint
modtls of circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. The pattern of vertical
distribution of hydrothermodynamic and turbulent characteristics obtained
in joint models of dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean is a result of solu-
- tian of a closed system of hydrothermodynamic equations. Precisely it can
be used Eor modeling of climatic changes.
Long-Range Weather Forecasting and Evaluation of Climatic Variations
ilfany investigatlons tiave been devoted to the problem of weather forecasting
up to two weeks in advance by hydrodynamic methods, beginning with the work
of Bl.inova [1] (1943). Nevertheless, attempts to use different models for
forecasting on the basis of initial fields have led to the conclusion that
the limit of predictability with these schemes does not exceed two weeks.
After repeated confirmations of this fact the conclusion was drawn that a
detailed forerast for a time greater than two weeks in general is scarcely
posstbie.
Further investigations by meteorologists demonstrated that there can be
other formulations of prohlems in hydrodynamic weather for.ecasting which
can make it possible to predict some meteorological elements for a period
tlp to a season if we take into account the processes transpiring in the
ocean and soil.
For example, Adem 1151 developed a izydrodynamic approach to the problem of
long-range prediction of temperature anomalies of the land and ocean sur-
face. It is based on integration of the heat influx equations for the ocean,
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land and atmosphere and a complex parameterization of different physical
factors. Encouraging results were obtained by the author.
A number of conclusions follow from an analysis of the characteristic fre-
quencies and eigenvectors of planetary atmospheric dynamics. The analysis
made by Yudin is based on use of the asymptotic method for separation of
movements in a spectral model with the full equations of atmospheric dy-
namics [13, 141. Computations are given with definite conditions to the
appearance of very small values of characteristic frequencies. This gives
a basis for concluding that the weather of subsequent months can be depen-
dent on the values of the initial phase of "quasistanding" waves and that
this dependence is subject to computation.
; _�r.=_=~!:~ ...~^rJ;~~~~'; - r
2
~ � L
i,
i ~
~ i
I , � +
Fig. 1. Isol:tnes of inean monthly values of solution of conjugate problem at
the earth's surface for prediction of November temperature anomalies in Euro-
pean USSR. a) first ~-onth from beginning of computations; b) second month
from beginning of computations.
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2~-~
c-~;
;j~._:.:.~-
v

� ~ ~
~ ~m.~~~L,r_~._�_:~- 77=_`~~~--'-~.- -
~ y �r' 1.~.~.
I
J7
Fig. 2. Isolines of nean monthly values of solution of conjugate problem at '
earth's surface for prediction of November temperature anomalies in the
lsilropean USSR, a) fifth month from beginning of computations, b) sixth month
From beginning of computations.
The new mathematical approach is based on the use of the conjugate equations
of hydrothermodynamics and a specially formulated theory of perturbations
[7, 91. The purpose of these investigations is the long-range forecasting
of rnean monthly temperature anomalies averaged for large regions of the
earth with an advance time from a month to a season. The problem formulated
is prediction of the sign of such a temperature anomaly. The thermal be-
havior of the land and the hydrodynamics of the ocean are becoming the
principal determining factors in long-range forecasting.
An algorithm for long-range prediction of inean temperature anomalies, based
on integration of the conjugate equations of hydrothermodynamics of the at-
mosphere and oceans, will make it possible to describe some of the above-
mentioned asynchronous relationships. The solution of the conjugate problem
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is a spatial-temporal function of input meteorological information relative
to predictable temperature anomalies. Using influence functions it is pos-
sible to determine the most important regions in the world ocean exerting
n deciaive influence on formation of the mean temperature anomaly over
qu.I tv :1argc regione of the earth duriiig di Eferent seasons.
Now we will examine the results of two experiments for computing conjugate
problems (influence functions of radiation flux anomalies) for predicting
the mean November temperature anomalies of the surface of the European
USSR and regions of the United States. Here we have used the mean monthly
clima.tic data on wind velocities in the atmosphere and the boundaries of
snow and ice cover on the earth's surface.
Z'he Antarctic continent and the Arctic Ocean w2re assumed to be covered by
ice. The velocity field of ocean currents was taken from a model of circul-
ation in the world ocea.n developed at the Computation Center Siberian De-
partment USSR Academy of Sciences.
Figure 1 shows isolines of the mean monthly values of solution of thz con-
jugate problem at the earth's surface, bPing an influence function. At the
top (a) we have shown the results of computations for one month; the zone
where the function has a maximum is situated in the European USSR. At the
bottom (b) the figure shows the results of computations for two monchs. Now
the zone of the influence function maximum is situated over the northern
part of the Atlantic Ocean.
We note that the mean monthly temperature anomaly over the European USSR
Ior the first month is determined as the product of the influence function
(Fig. la) and the corresponding deviation of the heat flow from the cli-
mat:tc norm, integrated over the entire earth. The mean monthly anomaly for
two months is the sum of two effects associated with the influence functions
(Fig. la and b). To this, naturally, we must add the contribution of the
initial fields, rapidly attenua.ting as the time of the forecast is increased.
In the next figure (Fig. 2) we show the results cf computations for five
months (at top) and for six months (at bottom). The zone where the maximum
of the influence function is situated is the tropical part of the Atlantic,
in the region where the Gulf Stream is generated. Here also the mean month-
ly temperature anomalies for thP fifth and sixth months are determined
as the sums of the corresponding effects during the preceding months. In
this case the contribution of the initial fJelds can be neglected.
Thus, in the formation of tl:e mean November temperature anomalies over the
European USSR an important rola is played by radiation processes transpir-
ing in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean. The computations
indicated that radiation processes in the tropics and subtropics of the
Pacific Ocean are of great importance for tnean November temperatures in
the United States.
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In numerical experiments for summer temperatur e anomalies for the European
USSR and the United States the zones of maximum values of the influence
function were displaced northward: into the Iceland region for the European
USSR and toward the Aleutian Islands for the United States.
Simtlar influence functions could be computed for any other regions of our
planet. In each case this would make it possible to detect and define more
precisely the zones of most active influence on atmospheric processes.
tt can be expected that the most important zonas of active influence on at-
mospheric processes in different regions of the earth will be related to a
considerable degree to powerf;il currents in the world ocean and regions
of active thermal interaction between the atmosphere and ocean, taking into
account seasonal variation and monsoonal circulations for the selected re-
gions.
- Now we would like to discuss some problems which can play an important role
in the further forming of an understanding of climate and general circula-
_ tion of the atmosphere and ocean.
It is generally recognized that prolonged changes in the state of the atmo-
sphere are determined to a considerable degree by the process of exchange
of energy, moisture and heat in the "atmosphere-ocean" system. However,
these processes have not been studied adequately and many oceanographic
investigations recently carried out frequently have a random nature and
are not specially directed to solution of the problem of long-range weather
forecasting and the theory of climate. It seems necessary that the WMO (in
cooperation with other international organizations) formulate and implement
a program of l.ong-range scientific research work for studying interaction
between ttie atmosphere and ocean for the purpose of c.reating methods for
long-range forecasting of weather and climatic variations. Such a program
could become a logical development of investigations and observations
carried out and beingcarried out within the framework of the GARP program.
Tlie principal objectives of such a program could be the foliowing:
studying the spatial-temporal variability of the principal characteris-
tics of the ocean and atmosphere over the oceans at time scales from a
month to a season;
establishing corre.lations between thermal and dynamic anomalies in the
ocean and the formation of circulation anomalies in the atmosphere over
the oceans and continents by means of a quantitative determination of all
the heat balance components.
These long-term investigations could be carried out on the basis of a system
ot podygons and sections in several sectors of the world ocean. The observ-
ations should be carried out quasisynchronously at a definite time of the
year and be supplemented by observations from b uoy stations and satellites.
T.hP ocean sectors must be selected in regions most sensitive with respect
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to interaction between the atmosphere and ocean, determining the develop-
ment of weather processes and phenomena.
Such observations would make it possible, in a relatively short time (5-6
years), to obtain information for developing new and improving existing
methods for long-range weather forecasting and cast new light on the phys-
ical reasons for climatic variations and changes.
The proposed program rests on two principal concepts.
The first concept uses the approach of conjugate hydrothermodynamic equations
and influence functions obtained using this approach. We have already cited
examples of numerical experiments with influence functions indicating the
role of ocean processes in the forming of large-scale weather phenomena.
These results make it possible to indicate those sectors of the oceans
where hydrophysical observations must be organized first.
The second concept is a hypothesis which can be one of the possible explan-
ations of the variability of climate and significant weather anomalies.
The basis for tt-e hypothesis is the assumption of the possibility of the
prolonged movement of water masses with anomalous temperature values in
the ocean. These masses can reach great depths due to the appearance of
an unstable stratification and migrate over a long period of time without
becoming apparent from observations in the surface layers of the ocean.
Under suitable conditions and over time periods of several months and even
years these wave masses can emerge at the surface and cause major anomalies
of atmospheric circulation.
A detailed study of zones of active influence in a current over a more or
less prolonged period will help in detecting these phenomena if they do
exist. This will make it possible to establish correlations between them
and the principal atmospheric phenomena.
The Thirtieth Session of the WMO Executive Committee examined the proposal
for organizing a research program for study of processes of interaction be-
tween the ocean and the atmosphere for the purposes of long-range weather
forecasting and the theory of climate presented by the Vice President of
the WMO, Corresponding Member USSR Academy of Sciences Y u. A. Izrael'. The
committee decided that the proposal has a sound scientific basis.
The Soviet Union has already proceeded to implementation of the proposed
program within the framework of its national research program on standard
sections in the Atlantic and Paci�ic Oceans.
Six of the ten sections are located in the Atlantic Ocean and the others
are in the Pacific Ocean (Figures 3 and 4).
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The observations are being made four times a year in the oceanographic sea-
sons: in February, May, August and November.
These obscrvatlons constttute part of ttie investigationa being curried out
in accordance with international and national programs (GARP, POLYMODE,
MONEX, POLEX and others).
,y
/ m,j

N4;
\ e. ~
~ 1IJ
I 1
!IZ
co
40
N,, ~ .
N,
d \
N4 ~ NJ
Fi.g. 3. Map of standard sections in Fig. 4. Map of standard sections in
the Atlantic Ocean. the Pacific Ocean.
It i.s known that hydrophysical investigations require considerable expend-
itures and resources. It therefore follows that there is need for joint
use of satellites and research ships outfitted with complex r:^asuring ap-
paratus, a network of buoy stations and other means for the collection
and processing of data.
As was noted in the important reports of Doctor White and Academician Ye.
K. Fedorov, sudden climatic variations inflict an enormous loss on agri-
culture over extensive areas of the earth,, which leads to s uffering of
millions of people. [Reference is to reports at the Llorld Climate Confer-
ence (Geneva, 12-23 February 1979).] It is therefore necessary to draw up
major scientific research programs directed to sol.ution of these funda-
mental problems.
The mulrisided Lnvestigations of the atmosphere and ocean will undoubtedly
sttmulate theoretical investigations in the field of general circulation
of the atmosphere and ocean and the climate of our planet and will bring
closer the time when our science will be able to predict climatic varia-
tions and long-range weather changes, which will assist in the timely tak-
ing of ineasures f.or the prevention of calamities and in improving the life
of,mankind.
[Note: This is the basic content of a report at the World Climate Confer-
ence (Geneva, 12-23 February 1979).]
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BIBLIOGRAP1iY
1. 3linova, Ye. N., "Hydrodynamic Theory of Pressure Waves and Centers of
Action in the Atmosphere," DOKLADY AN SSSR (Reports of the USSR Acad-
emy of Sciences), Vol 39, No 7, 1943.
2. Budyko, M. I., VLIYANIYE CHELOVEKA NA KLIMAT (Man's Influence on Cli-
mate), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1972.
3. Kondrat'yev, K. Ya., AKTINOMETRIYA (Actinometry), Leningrad, Gidrometeo-
izdat, 1965.
4. Kochergin, V. P., TEORIYA I METODY RASCHETA OKEANICHESKIKH TECfiENIY -
' (Theory and Methods for Computing Ocean Currents), Moscow, Nauka, 1978.
5. Kurbatkin, G. P., 0 VLIYANII OKEANA NA KLIMAT (Influence of the Ocean
on Climate), Novosibirsk, 1977.
6. Lineykin, P. S., OSNOVNYYE VOPROSY DINAMICHESKOY TEORII BAROKLINNOGO
' SLOYA MORYA (Fundamental Problems in the Ilynamic Theory of a Baroclinic
Layer in the Sea," Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1957.
7. Marchuk, G. I., CHISLENNOYE RESHENIYE ZADACH DIPIAMIKI ATMOSFERY I OKEANA
(Numerical Solution of Problems of Dynamics of the Atmosphere and
Ocean), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1974.
- 8. Marchuk, G. I., Kurbatkin, G. P., "Physical and Mathematical Aspects of
Analysis and Prediction of Weather," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
(Meteorolobry and Hydrology), No 11, 1977.
9. Marchuk, G. I., Skiba, Yu. N., OB ODNOY MODELI PROGNOZA OSREDNENNYKH
ANOMALIY TEMPERATURY (On One Model for Prediction of Averaged Tempera-
ture Anomalies), Preprint VTs SO AN SSSR', Novosibirsk, 1978.
10. Monin, A. S., Obukhov, A. M., "Principal Properties of Turbulent Mixing
in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer," TRUDY GEOFIZICHESKOGO INSTITUTA AN
SSSR (Transactions of the Geophysical Institute USSR Academy of Sci-
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11. Musayelyan, Sh. A., "The Problem of Parameterization of the Process of
Transfer of Solar Radiation to the Ocean-Atmosphere System and Long-
Range Forecasting," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 10, 1974.
12. Sarkisyan, A. S., VVEDENIYE V TEORIYLI I RASCfiET OKEANICHESKIKH TECHENIY
(Introduction to the Theory and Computation of Ocean Currents), Lenin-
grad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1966.
13. Yudin, M. I., "Principles for Formulating a Spectral Model of Atmospher-
ic Circulation With Allowance for the Peculiarities of Movements of Dif-
ferent Spatial Scales," TRUDY SIMPOZIUMA "RAZNOSTNYYE I SPEKTRAL'NYYE
METODY RESHENIYA ZADACH DINAMIKI ATMOSFERY I OKEANA" (Transactions of
the Symposium "Difference and Spectral Methods for Solving Problems in
Dynamics o� the Atmosphere and Ocean"), Novosibirsk, 1974.
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14. Yudin, M. I., "Some Considerations on the Significance of Different
Types of Information in the Long-Range Forecasting Problem," METEOR-
OLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 3, 1979.
_ 15. Adem, J., "Experiments Aiming at Monthly and Seasonal Numerical Weather
Prediction," MON. WEATHER REV,, Vol 93, 1965.
16. Arakawa, A., Mintz, Y., THE UCLA ATTiOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL,
Dept. of Meteorology, UCLA, L. A., 1974.
17. Arakawa, A., "Computational llesign for Long-Term Numerical Integration
of the Equations of Fluid Motions: Two-Dimensional Incompressible Flow.
Part I," J. COMPUTATIONAL PHYS., Vol 1, 1966.
18. Bjerknes, j., "A Possible Response of the Atmospheric Hadley Circula-
tion to Equatorial Anomalies of Ocean Temperature," TELLUS, Vol 28,
1960.
19. Bryan, K., "A Numerical Method foi the Study of the Circulation of the
World Ocean," J. COMPUTATIONAL PHYS., Vol 4, No 3, 1969.
20. Charney, J. G., "Geostrophic Turbulence," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 28, 1971.
21. Chervin, R. M., Gates, W. L., Schneider, S. H., "The Effect of Time
Averaging on the Noise Level of Climatological Statistics Generated
by Atmospheric General Circulation Models," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 31,
1975.
22. THE PHYSICAL BASI:S OF CLIMATE AND CLIMATE MODELING, GARP Publications
Series, Vol 16, No 265, 1975.
23. Kasahara, A., LJashington, W., 01NCAR Global General Circulation Model
of the Atmosphere," MON. WEATHER REV., Vo:l 95, No 7, 1967.
24. Kurbatkin, G. P., ULTRALONG ATMOSPHERIC WAVES AND LONCrRANGE FORECAST-
ING, Vol 24, No 6, 1972.
25. Leith, G. E., "Atmospheric Predictability and Tao-Dimensional Turbu-
lence," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 28, 1971.
26, Lindsen, R. S., Farrel, B., "Some Realistic Modifications of Simple
Climate Models," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 34, 1977.
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ATMOSPHERE, WMO, 1967.
28. Manabe, S., Bryan, K., "Climate Circulation With a Combined Ocean-At-
mosphere Model," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 26, 1969.
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29. Manabe, S., Wetherald, R. T., "The Effect of Doubling the C02 Concen-
tration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model," J. ATMOS. SCI.,
Vol 32, 1975.
30. Marchuk, G. I., "Formulation of the Theory of Perturbations for Complic-
ated Models. Part I: The Estimation of the Climatic Change," GEOFISICA
INTERNATIONAL, 1975.
31. Mason, B. J., SOME RESULTS OF CLIMATE EXPERIMENTS WITH NUMERICAL MODELS,
1978.
32. Mitchell, J. M., "Summary of the Problem of Air Pollution Effects on
the Climate," MAN'S IMPACT ON THE CLIMATE, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.,
- 1971.
33. Munk, W., "On the Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation," J. METEOROL., Vol 7,
No 2, 1950.
34. Namias, J., "Negative Ocean-Air Feedback Systems Over the North Pacific
in the Transition from Warm to Cold Seasons," MON. WEATHER REV., Vol 104,
No 9, 1976.
' 35. Phillips, N. A., "The General Circulation of the Atmosphere. A Numer-
ical Experiment," QUART. J. ROY. METEOROL. SOC., Vol 82, 1956.
36. Robinson, A. R., "The Variability of Ocean Currents," REV. GEOPHYS.
AND SPACE PHYS., Vol 13, No 3, 1975.
37. Sellers, W. D., "A New Global Climatic Model," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 12,
1973.
38. Smagorinsky, J., "Global Atmospheric Modeling and the Numerical Simul-
ation of Climate," in W. N. Hess, ed., WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICA-
TION, Wiley and Sons, New York, 1977.
39. Stommel, H., THE GULF STREAM, Univ. California Press, 1965.
40. Thompson, P. D., NUMERICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION, New York,
MacMillan, 1959.
41. Washington, W., "Numerical Climatic Change Experiments: the Effect of
Man's Production of Thermal Energy," J. APPL. METEOROL., Vol 11, 1972.
42. Welander, P., "Wind-Driven CircuZation in One and Two Layer Oceans of
Variable Depth," TELLUS, Vol 20, No 1, 1968.
43. Wetherald, R. T., Manabe, S., "Response of the Joint Ocean-Atmosphere
Model to the Seasonal Variation of the Solar Radiation," MON. WEATHER
REV., Vol 100, No l, 1972.
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44. Wyrtki, K., "E1 Nino the Dynamic Response of the Equatorial Pacific
Ocean to Atmospheric Forcing," J. PHYS. OCEANOGR., Vol 5, 1975.
r
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UDC 551.583.7
CLIMATES nF PAST GEOLOGICAL EPOCHS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 37-53
[Article by I. P. Gerasimov, Geography Institute USSR Academy of Sciences,
submitted for publication 25 April 1979]
Abstract: This article sets forth the methods
and initial data used in paleoclimatic recon-
structions. The author generalizes the experi-
ence from investigations carried out earlier.
For a number of time limits, making it pos-
sible to reconstruct the scenarios of future
climates, the article gives the characteris-
tics of past climates. Among such time periods
it is possible to define the preglacial period,
the last interglacial epoch and the period of
the climatic optimum of the Holocene. As a con-
trast, the climate of the coldest phase of the
last glaciation is described. [This is the basic
content of a report at the World Climate Con-
ference (Geneva, 12-23 February 1979).]
[Text] The science of climates of past geological epochs paleoclimat-
ology has now acquired extremely timely importance. One of the reasons
for this is the growing restlessness of the world community about the
possibility of major changes in present-day climate and the influence of
these changes on the state of the environment. Modern paleoclimatology is
the study of past climates on the basis of paleogeographic data, detection
of a natural trend, a reconstruction of these climates, long-range climatic
changes and analogues of probable types of climates of the future. In this
way the possibility arises of an additional validation of climatic fore-
casts and the checking of physical-mathema.tical mc3els.
However, the problem of creating reliable reconstructions of past climates
is not simple. First, these reconstructions are based on indirect data,
incomparably more limited in comparison with the data used in studying mod-
ern climates. Second, they are based on use of a methodology which to a
considerable degree has a stochastic character.
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The basic information on climates of past years is obtained by an ecolog-
ical interpretation of paleobiological data, that is, macro- and microres-
idues of plants (including pollens and spores) and animals (bone and shell
remnants), buried in geological deposits of different age on the continents
and on the floor of the seas and oceans. This basic information is supple-
mented by a study of the genetic types of ancient fossil soils, weathered
crusts and lithoclimatic facies of continental deposits (for example, lat-
- erites, kaolins, bauxites, loesses and others), lacustrine and sea (in-
cluding abyssal) sediments. Considerable paleogeographic (including paleo-
climatic) inforffiation is also provlded by historical and archeological
materials. The use of geochemical (primarily isotopic) methods in paleo-
climatic investigations has recently begun and is rapidly expanding. Among
these absolute datings, and.paleotemperature measurements in the remnants
of microfauna, shells of fresh-water and sea mollusks, bone remnants,
samples of ancient ice, etc. are acquiring particularly great importance.
- The volume of this information is rapidly increasing, although it still
remains inadequate. For definite paleogeographic situations it is also
possible to use models of the general theory of climate for paleocli-
matic reconstructions. On the basis of the introduction of appropriate
boundary parameters into such models it is possible to reconstruct theor-
etically the meteorological regimes of past geological epochs.
In the sphere of study of climates of past years it is feasible to dis-
tii.iguish at least three principal fields of research: climatology of the
present-day period, climatology of the historical period and climatology
oL past geolog:Lcal epochs or paleoclimatology proper. In addition to
different time intervals, each of these fields of research uses different
initial data. Modern climatology deals with the results of direct meteor-
ological observations and covers the period of a hundred years before our
time. Historical clima.tology is based on records and old manuscripts,
describing diFferent meteorological phenomena, and also on a study of
those natural objects which coritain precise chronological data (for ex-
ample, dendrochronology). This field of investigations already covers sev-
eral thousand years. Finally, paleoclimatology operates, as was mentioned,
using diverse paleogeographic and primarily paleobiological data. It covers
millions of years.
Th:ts article deals only with the subject of paleoclimatology.
Traditional paleoclimatic reconstructions are based on an actualistic meth-
od. This principle is based on the con.cept that ancient species of plants
and animals, used as paleogeographic indicators, imposed on the climatic
conditions of past geological epochs the very same requirements which are
characteristic for related or modern species of organisms. The same also
applies to ecosystems (biocoenoses), and also to weathered crusts, soils,
lithoclimatic facies of continental deposits, etc. With its application
some paleoclimatic characteristics can be expressed in quantitative indices.
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Thus, for example, geographic zonality is associated with the indices of
th�e-thermal energy base (radiation balance of the earth's surface) and
moistening conditions for all the main modern macrotypes of natural eco-
systems (Table 1). Taking this dependence into account, using data on geo-
graphic zones of the past it is possible to establish temperature charac-
teristics and atmospheric humidity values corresponding to these zones.
In paleoclimatic reconstructions it is also possible to use climatic para-
meters cliaracteristic of the conditions for formation of present-day
weathered crusts, soils and lithogenetic facies of continental deposits,
and also the optimum conditions for the existence of individual species
of plants and animals, their groupings and complexes (Table 2). During
recent years it has become possible to determine the temperature condi-
tions for the existence of plankton complexes in the world ocean.
Naturally, all this creates a rather broad basis for paleoclimatic recon-
structions, although sometimes it causes doubts from the evolutionary
point of view, since modern plants and animals in many cases have a rela-
tively recent geological age. Their predecessors, that is, more ancient,
and especially disappearing species, could impose both similar and dif-
ferent requirements on climatic conditions. True, there is a possibility,
by means of study of the morphological peculiarities of dead organisms,
to compare them with modern organisms and on this basis draw various
pa].eoecological conclusions (for example, affinity to heat, xeromorphism,
etc.), but such conclusions usually have only a probabilistic character.
At first glance it may seem that more indisputable quantitative paleocli-
matic information is given by the use of the latest geochemical methods.
_ However, such information is usually developed on the basis of definite
theories based on the regularities of modern natural phenomena. For ex-
ample, data on paleotemperatures, based on the relationships of oxygen
isotopes, proceed from the assumption that the chemical composition of
ocean waters in the past did not differ from that of today. The same can
be said about carbon dating and the gas composition of past atmospheres,
although some historical geology corrections are introduced into it. Thus,
the latest methods for obtaining paleoclimatic indices to a considerable
degree are also actualistic.
As indicated by already accumulated experience from paleogeographic recon-
structions, their reliability is increased when obtaining similar results
by methods which are independent of one another: paleolithological, paleo-
- pedological, paleobiological and others, supplemented and checkable by geo-
chemical (isotopic determinations) and geophysical methods (physical model-
ing on the basis of application of the theory of climate).
At thp same time, it must be emphasized that as a result of the consider-
ably lesser paleogeographic information which is available for more an-
cient geological epochs, and also by virtue of the increasing limitations
in the application of actualistic principles and use of models in the
theory of climate, the general degree of scientific validity of paleocli-
matic reconstructions is decreased as one goes back in geological time.
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Therefore, for more ancient epochs there is also a decrease in the prognos-
tic role of the corresponding paleoclimatic reconstructions.
, The reconstructions made using traditional methods of paleogeographic in-
vestigations made it possible to arrive at a number of important paleocli-
matic generalizations. The most important of these is the idea of a pre-
dominance, during the course of the entire Mesozoic and part of the Ceno-
zoic eras, of relatively hot climates at the earth's surface with poorly
expressed seasons and on the existence of broad natural zones with differ-
ent moistening levels. At the same time, it was possible to detect a gen-
eral tendency to cooling over the course of the Cenozoic of the cli-
mates in the temperate and high latitudes with an increase in the con-
trast of seasons, and also to successive complication of natural zonality,
which led to an increasing diversity of the earth`s climates. This ten-
dency was complicated by cyclic variations in climatic conditions with
- a different amplitude.
Such is the general picture of paleoclimatic conditions of the Mesozoic-
Cenozoic following from the widely known studies of E. Huntington and S. S.
Visher (1922), W. Koppen and A. Wegener (1924), C. Brooks (1926-1950), F.
Kerner-Mailaun (1930), N. M. Strakhov (1948), M. Schwarzbach (1950), V. M.
Sinitsyn (1966) and other authors.
It should be noted that the specific presentation of the described general
pattern of paleoclimates of the Mesozoic-Cenozoic in these studies, and
also in many others was substantially different. This is attributable both
to many difficulties in the interpretation of paleogeographic information
and the need for using a generalization of empirical data from different
theoretical historical geology models. It is especially important that in
many investigations of climates of the past the basis for paleogeographic
reconstructions is a model of a permanent positioning of the continents
and oceans (Brooks, Schwarzbach, Strakhov, etc.). As is well known, an ex-
r.ention is a st:udy by A. Wegener and W. Koppen (1924) in which the theory
of continental drift (and also migration of the poles) was advanced for
the first time.
At the present time the theory of continental drift (and also migration
of the poles) or the so-called theory of global tectonics of plates is
being used more and more widely for explaining many events in the earth's
geological history. According to this theory, already at the end of the
Mesozoic there was a single land mass (Pangaea), surrounded by the world
ocean. During the course of the Mesazoic-Cenozoic the Pangaea land mass
was broken down into a number of continental blocks which moved apart and
Eormed the present-day continents. A timely problem in modern paleogeo-
graphic investigations is the use of the general picture described above
For an explanation and detailed description of Mesozoic-Cenozoic climates.
Scientific expositions of this type can be found in the materials of in-
ternational conferences on problems in paleoclimatology which have been
held during recent years (Newcastle, 1963; Norwich, 1975, and others),
44
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and also in the works of individual scientists, such as the investiga-
tions of H. H. Lamb (1977) and H. Flohn (1969) and others.
Interesting theoretical principles for paleoclimatic studies of this sort
were proposed by M. I. Budyko (1971, 1974). They involved a recognition,
as the most important climate-forming factor in the earth's geological
past, of the energy balances of the atmosphere and hydrosphere, in which
an important role is played by heat transfer between the poles and the
equator, effectuated by ocean currents. Since, according to the histor-
ical geology model cited above, in the course of a considerable part of
the Mesoxoic-CFnozoic there was an extensive world ocean, or in any case,
there was free communication between its polar and equatorial parts, ex-
tensive meridianal heat transfers should then play a greater role in com-
par.ison with the present epoch. This factor explains well the predomin-
ance of hot climates in these geological epochs and also the development
of primarily concentric climatic zones on the continents with different
moistening levels. cov
D,?~
0, i
0
r IU M n
millions of years
Fig. 1. Evolution of gas composition of the atmosphere (according to M. I.
Budyko).
The reasons for the cyclic changes in the climates of the Mesozoic and
Cenozoic and their different amplitude could be different phenomena. How-
ever, in the latest studies particularly great attention is being devoted
to a periodic change in the gas composition of the atmosphere, and in
particular, to variations in its C02 content. Among the many investiga-
tions of this kind we must mention the studies of M. I. Budyko, who, using
data from historical geology, constructed a well-known curve of the geo-
logical evolution of atmospheric gas composition for 200 million years
(Fig. 1). According to this curve, with a general tendency to a decrease
- in C02 content during the course of the Mesozoic-Cenozoic there were re-
peated waves o:E its increase and decrease. Without touching here on the
reasons for this global phenomenon (M. I: Budyko attributes it, for the
most part, to the cycles of volcanic activity), we recall that most modern
investigations relate the so-called "greenhouse" effect in change in the
structure of the atmospheric radiation balance to periods of increased
C02 content in the earth's atmosphere and as a result, epochs of consid-
erable, anomalous warming coincide with this phenomenon. Sensational
paleoclimatic conclusions are drawn on this basis.
A specific example of such conclusions is found in an article by D. I.
Macklin entitled "Greenhouse at the End of the Mesozoic; Lessons of the
Past," published in SCIENCE during the past year. The article is devoted
45 '
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to an examination of the so-called "time of the great dying out," the
mass disappearance on the earth of many representatives of Mesozoic
fauna at the end of L'ItaL' era and on the boundary with the Cenozoic, that
is, about 120-150 million years ago.
The author of the above-mentioned article, making extensive use of data
from the latest investigations of many scientists, convincingly demon-
strates that the main reason for this gl,obal biological catastrophe (ecol-
ogical crisis) was the sudden and rapid warming of general climate, caus-
ed by a marked increase in the COZ concentration in the atmosphere, re-
sulting in a strong "greenhouse" effect. Relying on investigations demon-
strating the increasing anthropogenic concentration of C02 in the modern
atmosphere, he predicts a new ecological catastrophe for life on earth
similar to that occurring in the Mesozoic-Cenozoic.
In this article there is no possibility for a thorough discussion of the
Mesozoic-Cenozoic ecological catastrophe. The fact that this geological
period was characterized by very great paleogeographic changes is evi-
dently unquestionable. It is sufficient to mention that the beginning
of the breakdown of the unif ied land mass (Pangeia) dates back precisely
to that period of time, as does the development of oceanic spreading and
subduction, the onset of the Laramie-Alpine orogenesis, etc. Moreover,
the M. I. Budyko curve shown in Fig. 1, representing the evolution of
atmospheric 'composition in the geological past, much like the similar
curve in the report by Professor B. Bolin, presented at the World Climate
Conference (Geneva, 1979), predicting an anthropogenic effect from the
combustion of fuels, accordingly indicates both the past and also possibly
the future of a high "wave" in the increase in the concentration of atmo-
spheric C02 and the possible appearance of a strong "greenhouse" effect.
Nevertheless, such a simple analogy between the geological past and the
future, identification of the Mesozoic-Cenozoic "greenhouse" with a pos-
tulated "greenhouse effect" of anthropogenic origin, in our opinion is
unjustifiable. Even if we do not touch upon the purely biological as-
pects of the Mesozoic-Cenozoic ecological crisis, general paleogeographic
arguments speak against such an analogy. Thus, for example, in order to
duplicate such a biological "catastrophe" it is necessary that the en-
tir.e present-day face of the earth be subjected to a rapid and fundamental
regeneration. In place of the rich and diversified modern nature with many
reliable ecological "niches" refuges from all possible climatic mis-
fortunes, our earth must again be transformed into a uniform unified land
mass deprived of natural refuges, a Pangeia washed by an extensive and
also a unified worid ocean. But the course of geological evolution is
irreversible.
Now we will turn to later stages in the geological history of the earth.
It is generally recognized that during the course of the Cenozoic there
was development of a general global cooling, an increase in the contrast
of seasons of the year and complication of natural climatic zonality.
46
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Such a transition is well documented by paleoclimatic reconstructions
for the Miocene and Pleistocene. M. I. Budyko (1971) attributes this to
the fact that during the course of the Tertiary there was gradual develop-
ment of isolation of the polar basin (in the northern hemisphere) from
the tropical regions of the ocean, which caused a decrease in temperature
at the pole and approach of the distrubtion of radiation heat to the values
characteristic for the Quaternary.
Paleogeographic data on climatic changes in the Tertiary can and musC be
used for prognostic purposes. In this connection particular attention must
be given to the preglacial period, that is, that period in the paleogeo-
graphic evolution of the earth during which the climate-forming factors,
~ determining the onset of the glacial period, still had not appeared, al-
though the geographic positioning of the continents and oceans was close
to that of the present day. In the classical summary of M. Schwarzbach
(1956) the climate of this time was characterized as follows: "In general
the climate of the Pliocene was rather similar to that of the present day,
although it was somewhat warmer" (p 197). In another classical summary
� by C. Brooks it is asserted that "the climatic zones in Europe (in the
Miocene-Pliocene) were displaced by 10 or 15� to the north in comparison
with their present-day positioning" (p 12). Finally, in the up-to-date
summary of H. H. Lamb (1977) the author gives generalized data on paleo-
temperatures in the southern hemisphere and demonstrated how the tropical
conditions here are replaced by subtropical and temperate conditions. Gen-
. eralizations of all data of this kind make possible their quite valid use
for prognostic purposes.
In a report by H. Flohn at the World Clima.te Conference (Geneva, 1979)
very great prognostic significance is given precisely to this geological
per.iod. He called it the period of "an ice-free Arctic and a glaciated
rlntarctic continent." Its age was determined as: from 12 to 2.5 million
years ago. A very interesting theme for scientific discussion would be
a discussion of that hypothetical model of Che paleogeography of this
per.iod which is set forth in the report by Professor H. Flohn. As follows
from the text of the report, the anth;.opogenic increase in the C02 con-
centration can, as visualized by the speaker, lead in the immediate future
to a"reproduction" of the paleogeography of pre�i-iely this period.
It is important to note that the latest archeological finds of ancient
man (to be more precise, pre-man), encountered in East Africa, are related
to precisely this time (its upper limit). The phylogeny of the human spe-
cies, as is well known, is rather complex and extends over the last sev-
eral million years.
The problem of the role of the environment in the appearance of ancient
man is very interesting and there is still much which is unclear. The
region of the rift valleys of East Africa, where the remains of the most
ancient man were recently found, judging from paleobiological data, was
characterized by a rather diversif ied wooded savanna landscape. It was
47
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postulated that a highly important role in the transition from primates
to pre-man was played by an omnivorous life, high mobility and the possib-
ility of active attack and defense, which freed him from the ecological
_ "niche" of the primates and made it possible to exist in different natural
ecosystems already existing in this region. However, this was nevertheless
only relative natural independence.
As is well known, the principal pattern in the paleogeography of the Pleis-
tocene (from two million years ago to the present time) was major cycles
in glacial and interglacial epochs (Table 3), marked by periodic spreading
of extensive glacial covers over the continents and in the polar region dur-
ing glacial epochs and a marked reduction of these covers to their present
extent and smaller in the interglacial epochs. The advances and retreats
of the glacial covers were accompanied by major eustatic variations in
the level of the world ocean: its decrease by many tens of ineters in epochs
of glaciations and an increase in the interglacial epochs. It is almost
unlversally recognized that such cycles of ancient glaciations were caused
by periodic changes in the quanti*yo uf incident radiation (M. Milankovich,
1930; R. F. Flint, 1947; I. P. Gerasimov, K. K. Markov, 1939; F. Zeuner,
1959, and others). It is assumed that in the low latitudes there were sim-
Llar cycles of pluvial and xerothermic epochs. As indicated by modern in-
vestigations, paleogeographic changes played an important role in the
evolutionary development of man and the progress of material culture of
primitive society. During the time of these changes there was an anthropol-
ogical differentiation of humanoids with the formation of blind alleys in
man's development (Neanderthal man). Climatic changes in the course of
the Pleistocene were evidently the reason for the first ecological crises
in the history of human society and exerted an influence on his general
progress and his smooth transition from a life as a gatherer to a life as
a hunter, the development of agriculture and the raising of livestock
(Table 4). And although with the passage of time, with the development of
material cultur.e and the social structure of society,the dependence of hu-
man activity on climate weakened and was modified, at the present time, at
a very high stage in development, we must again return to this subject.
All the principal geological events of the Pleistocene, and in particular,
their paleoclimatic causes and effects,have been discussed at many recent
ineernational scientific congresses, conferences and symposia, whose mat-
erials have been regularly published. Among these we will mention the con-
gresses of the International Association for Study of the Quaternary, held
in Paris (1969), Christchurch (1973), London (1977); International Sympo-
sium on Quantitative Methods for Determining Cltmatic Changes During the
Pleistocene (Giv-sur-Ivette, 1973); International Symposium on Long-Term
Climatic Variations (Norwich, 1975) ; Soviet-American symposia on paleoclim-
ology of the Quaternary and others. The results of the latest investiga-
tions of these matters in the works of S. Emiliani, N. A. Morner, C. Charles,
I. Fink, H. Flohn, A. A. Velichko, and others ar.e of grest interest.
48
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In this report we are unable to present zi sy5tematic exe;mination of tlie entire
problem of Pleistocene ?aleoclimate. There is probably no need of this
because the most important problem in present-day paleoclimatology is the
defining of the principal time boundaries, similar to the "preglacial
epoch" (Miocene-Pliocene) capable of having progn4stic importance. In our
opinion, such principal boundaries in the course of the Pleistocene can
be considered, first of all, the last warm iriterglacial period (Riss-WSrm, Eem,
Sangamon), and second, the coldest stage of the last glaciation (late Wdrm,
Valday, Wisconsin).
The last warm interglacial period, occurring 120-75 thousand years ago, was
well expressed on a global scale. In the monograph PALEOGEOGRAFIYA YEVROPY
V POZDNEM PLEYSTOTSENE (Paleogeography of Europe in the Late Pleistocene)
(Moscow, 1978), in special maps (Fig. 2), there is a generalization of the
corresponding paleogeographic data. According to these data, the continental
ice was completely absent over the territory of Europe during the course of
the last interglacial period; almost the entire continent was occupied by
woody vegetation; the boundary of broadleaf forests ran 5-6� to the north
of its present position, there was no tundra and the boundary of the steppes
was also greatly displaced toward southeast Europe.
Fig. 2. Nature of Europe in the epoch of the last interglacial period (from
V. P. Grichuk) and its climatic characteristics (from A. A. Velichko and
V. A. Klimanov). a) mean July temperature; b) mean January temperature; c)
precipitation (mm). 1) shoreline; 2) boreal (taiga) forest; 3) Atlantic for-
ests; 4) subtropical (Mediterranean) humid forests; 5) subtropical (Medi-
terranean) arid forests, 6) steppe; 7) high-mountain forest and meadow; 8)
no reconstruction; 9) inundated areas; 10) 400-600; 11) 500-700; 12) 700-
1
1,000; 13) > 1,000; 14) no reconstruction
_ 49
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-1
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KEY TO TABLE 1
1. Thermal energy base-radiation base
2. (extremely excessive moiatening)
3. Moistening conditions-dryneas radiation index
4. (excess moistening)
5. optimum moistening
6. (moderately inadequate moistening)
- 7. (inadequate moistening)
8. (extremely inadequate moistening)
9. high latitudes
10. 0-50 Cal/cm2 per year (south arctic, subarctic and middle latitudes)
11. 50-75 Cal/cm2 per year (subtropical latitudes)
12. "1 75 Cal/cm2 (tropical latitudes)
13. Eternal snow
14. Arctic desert
15. Tundra (in south with patches of scattered forest), swampy areas with
low trees
16. Northern and middle taiga
17. Southern taiga and mixed forests
18. Hardwood forest and wooded steppe
19. Steppe
20. Semideserts of temperate zone
21. Deserts of temperate zone
22. Regions of subtropical savanna with considerable number of swamps
. 23. Rainy subtropical forests
- 24. Hard-lea� subtropical forests and scrub, deciduous forests
25. Subtropical semidesert
26. Subtropical desert
27. Regions of predominance of equatorial wooded swamps
28. Highly overmoistened (very swampy) equatorial forest
, 29. Moderately overmoistened (moderately swampy) equatorial forest
30. Equatorial forest, with transition into light tropical forests and
wooded savanna
31. Dry savanna, deciduous forests
32. Savanna with transition to desert (tropical semidesert)
33. Tropical desert
51
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. . W
Table 2
Climatic Characterisrics of Present-Day Natural Formations
T'naeiiwc ?c~neparypa, `C 3 ATMOC~pep-
- . Tlinw KiiiHar EiWC oraAruf,
~ 1 2 aunta I : eru M~I/roa~
- - , , 6
' -o
7 ~
CnanmiTnUe :{0.10;11�ui }-mepefino- -10 11 Ir:;
r.7ce8wc 10 B:~a;f;nwii 25 36
Ci+ai.711rnuc11 Yucpemio-xono1Haf;; 0 11 int;Ee
yntepetitto-nna:i;HwN 2 36
10 II NliitiC I ~4C
LCI 6.6
V f1; A~ T~.~ V/-y~,
ZO U ry~
LU
I I.: . 1 ~ ; f! i
'
I ' - �"y';'~ ~
2
~
~
;!iX
+eo ~ eo sc ~a ~ zo o ~ :o
Fig. 5. Prevailing temperatures of the sea surface during the last glacia-
tion maximum about 15-17 thousand years ago as the deviation (�C) from the
present-day level. a) winter; b) summer
After the epoch of maximimm cooling (25-12 thousand years ago) and the gradual
degradation of the last glacial covers in the course of the Holocene there
was a successive change in the climatic phases of the post-glacial period in
accordance with the }31ytt-Sernander scheme, for the first time finding glo-
ba1 application (Table 6). According to this scheme, during the post-glacial
period over the course of 11-12 thousand years there was one general epoch
of maximum warming (Atlantic time 5-8 thousand years ago), which was in-
terrupted and ended with colder eFochs (boreal, subaerial times).
Already rather long ago it was pos.tulated that there is a possible analogy
between the post-glacial (Holocene) period, beginning 11-12 thousand years
ago, and the interglacial periods. It followed from this hypothesis that
similar to an interglacial period, the Holocene is characterized by a defin-
ite cycle of climatic changes from the initial cooling to the climatic
56
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optimum (about 5 thousand years ago), and then to a new cooling a precur-
sor of a new glaciation.
Mlll(y.tUnCKO: weM- '
IIeBHUKOOee (qeHmp
~0404EH
( kexmp PyccKOu
CClfOll p00NUN5!)
p06HUHb!)
e�~e
3

�'q
v
4
?
aA'
:
M7i
SA'ZI
i
M '
M
i
S. 6�2~
N
Mt
2;~ 1
M.t
2'~.f
1
BO
PB
M~
R3
Fig. 6. Diagram of comparison of climatic and phytocenological stages of the
_ Pleistocene rhythm, Mikulin interglacial period and Holocene. 1) temperature;
2) moistening; M1 periglacial complex; M2 birch-pine forests; M3
same, with admixture of broad-l:eaf species; M4 broadleaf forests of oak
and elm; M5 same with linden mar.imum;.M6 same with hornbeam maximum;
M7 fir forests; Mg pine forests with fir and birch; V-- birch forests
with elements of tundra flora; DR-3 periglacial complex; PB birch-pine
forests; BO same with admixture of broadleaf species; AT broadleaf
forests of oak, elm and linden; SB-1 birch-pine forests; SB-2, SA-1, SA-2
fir forests; SA-3 birch-pine forests
KEY :
1. Mikulin interglacial period (center of Russian Plain)
2. Holocene (center of Russian Plain)
3. Phases according to V. P. Grichuk
4. Phases according to N. A. Khotinskiy
In Fig. 6 this representation is checked (for the center of the Russian Plain)
primarily on the basis of paleobotanical data. This figure gives a comparison
of the course of climatic changes in the course of the last interglacial per-
iod and the Holocene. The result of the comparison gives basis for assuming
that the historical period and the modern period can be regarded as a trans-
ition from the post-glacial climatic optimum (Atlantic phase) to a colder
climatic level, preceding the onset of a new glaciation. This transition,
to be sure, is not gradual; it is complicated by periodic epochs of warming
and cooling (similar to the so-called "small glacial period"). However, a
general tendency to progressive cooling clearly follows from paleogeographic
data.
57
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rVn UrriL11cu., uOn V1VLZ

a
4
. tl pp 3 ,QEyaKUCtr yznepoJa
4 � cynepMt,~;,eaxuaoB~e "
u
i 2
~ nocneaxee
MC.1rN8HUK06bt [F COdplMCHNOQ
~ MQA~fd~aY(lKOB� '
dl ~s ~ - . - - - - - - - 5 Havano censcrcozo
zoaAacmO
N , ~l
necneaHUU l
neaauxoBsruI�..: I ~
~ � ; . nepuo8 ~.i
'6' . �.~::1
nocnedNuri 'rrpynxslu .
10 nnuN�muvecxuri .qrcKn � :~{,�;.I
1S0 925 100 75 SO 25 . 8 CexoaNA -2S
9 TetcAVU nom Haaad
Fig. 7. Geological history of the past and prediction of future climate. In
accordance with the version of the astronomical theory of glacial periods
~ proposed by Hayes, et al., receiving further development in quantitative
expression in the studies of John Imbrey and John Z. Imbrey (1978), the
natural course of future climate (represented by a dashed curve) will be
expressed in a tendency to cooling which will lead to glacial conditions
after 23 thousand years. However, the warming effect of carbon dioxide can
lead to the appearance, in the course of natural events, to a"superinterglac-
ial" period when mean global temperatures will be several degrees higher than
in any other period in the course of the last million years. In this case
the onset of a tendency to cooling, leading to the next glacial period,
will he delayed until the warming truly stops; this will possib.ly occur
after 2 thousand years from the present time (according to Mitchell, 1977,
Imbrey and Z. Imhrey, 1978).
KEY:
1. Mean global temperature
'L. Last interglacial period
3. Carbon dioxide "superinterglacial" period
4. Present-day interglacial period
5. B,eginning of agriculture
6. Last major climatic cycle
7. Last glacial period 8. Today
9. Thousands of years ago
On the basis of these data it is possible.to make rough calculations of the
rate of development af cooiing. These show that clear evidences of the on-
set of a new glacial epoch can appear in tlie course of the next thousand
years.
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Table 3
Scheme of Breakdown of Pleistocene
Il0Apa3,aene� A6co:n)r-i }iblFi go,- 3anaufaR BocrovHas CCOC(~Il3A
HIIx pac. Anbnbl EBpona EBpona Amepiu:a
1 rmc. : ar2 3 4 5 6 _
7 BepxHxk
50
B10QM
~
BNGIHHCKOC
~
BaaAa�cKOe
29 BNCKOHCHH
C
100 1
jtcc-Btopac
18 3eat
~ MfliiyAllHO
aura;ioit
30
200
1~ pHCC
9 3aanbcxoe
'
S MocKOSCxoe3
O
{'~J17{IHOIiCKOt
'
Sl
g Cpettxxd
300
400 1
M{INAenb-P{ICC
onbwreiix
I
~
,zxHUOeu
oecKOe
~xen
paty
r
32
2
p
.RHXB1iH0
500
(F MNHAej1b
~
376CTCpCKOC
$
3 Kaxaacc~:oe
600
2
rI
fOHIX-MIIH- 2
Kpoxep
4 f~(pTOH
9 1"IHkCH}!$
700
Aenb
800
16 CbHq
5 HebpaccKOe
1000
31; II p e nt e v a if i! C. }j(IIPFIWM wpuc~roH ebmeneHbt xassaxFm ne;XY!ittosbtx 3nox
KEY:
1. Subdivision
2. Absolute age,
3. Alps
4. Western Europe
5. Eastern Europe
6. North America
7. Upper
8. Middle
9. Lower
10. Wurm
11. Riss-Wurm
12. Riss
13. Mindel-Riss
14. Mindel
15. Gunz-Mindel
16. Gunz
17. Visla
18. Eem
19. Saal
20.
thousands of years 21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
Holstein
Elster
Cromer
Valday
Mikulino
Moscow
Odintsovo
Dnepr
Likhvino
Wisconsin
Sangamon
Illinoisan
Yarmouth
Kansan
Aftonian
Nebraskan
Note. The underlining corres-
ponds to the names'of the
glacial epochs
However, there is no basis for ending this article with such a pessimistic
forecast. Even if we assiune the above-mentioned natural trend to be well-
reasoned, nevertheless we cannot be guided by it in a general forecast. Un-
doubtedly, modern climatic change will more and more be determined by an-
thropogenic influences on climate-forming factors. An examination of such
etfects, the degree of their intensity and time parameters is beyond the
limits of this article. However, iti is clear that both the present-day, and
especially the future activity of htunan society is undoubtedly capable not
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only of "overcoming," but even "turning around" the natural trends in the
geological evolution of climate. In other words, it can create the pre-
requisites for the appearance of those climatic situations on local, region-
al and global scales which can, despite the natural course of events, be
similar to different paleoclimatic scenarios.
3
1000
~
100
,aa
~ 70
-0
~o
1 ~
!(nuMCm Ifnunam
r.�;7.... ...,A...
nacnoAUgte dpenx
1
u
~ 100
o y ~
n
2 ` lnoo 5
n 3NUKO8iiu
,o � nepuoB ~
` CccceneaNUKO-
1GOC06 d5lu onmung~!_
Ve,
7ooeoo 1 ~j8VCK,0,7"CUH,C,K10_&-
a
e
7000000
IfOBbA
Fig. 8. Climatic changes during the last million years and possible short-
range clinatic tendencies in the future.
KEY:
l. Years (future)
2. Years (past)
3. Glacial climate
4. Interglacial climate
5. Small glacial period
6. Post-glacial optimum
7. Wisconsin glaciation
Yaleoclimatology can propose that mankind make a choice from a whole series
of climates of past geological epochs. The most possible of them are three
variants suggested by geological history: very warm and moist, but rather
uniform over great areas, a preglacial (Miocene-Pliocene) period, less warm,
but with considerable spatial variations, an interglacial climate, and fin-
ally, an intermediate climate (from interglacial to modern) of an epoch of
a post-glacial climatic optimum.
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- A6conar-
ttdk soa-
pacr
rbIc. :l
100
= 350
700
1500
MarepxanbxaR
xynbrypa
3
Lteaoacx
2
Heaxtpor.w
(semeprubuw) 5
Ilaneaxrponw 6
(I1HTeHa11TP0I161)
ApxaHrponN ]
AecTpanon,iTeKu g
BepxxNA naneonxr g
CpeAxxfi H HI[?[iHHR
naneonxr 10
3ortaneonxT (xyabryp~l
ranex }t yonnepoa)
KEY: - ' I
1. Absolute age, thousands of years
2. Man
3. Material culture
4. Nature
5. Neanthropic (Neanderthal man)
6. Paleoanthropic (Pithecanthropus)
7. Archanthropic
8. Australopithecus
9. Upper Paleolithic
10. Middle and Lower Paleolithic
- Table 4
IlpxpoAa
4
Biopat 12
Pxcc-Bapsi 13
Pxcc
AI1HAC7b-PfICC
MH}U(01I6 14
I'bsu-MxEiAenb 15
I'toxu
11. vrOyGV11L111%.
12. Wurm
13. Riss-Wurm
14. Riss
15. Mindel-Riss
16. Mindel
17. Gunz-Mindel
18. Gunz
Table 5
BpemA
1
I axsapa
3
7
CospeMeHiiocI�b
(r. Bpajictc)
-85
8
M2KC1fM)'1f ROXO+'.OJ(dlil(A
(i103AHHN B8AA8Ft)
-40y-95
9
MaxcxMYM norennCHsiIR
(MxKynxncr,oe atew.w:t-
1I11H08bQ)
Q
10
cr~
1
~ os~y
'
yrci
-4J,2
KEY:
1. Time
2. Temperature, �C
3. January
4. July
5. Mean annual
6. Precipitation, mm/year
eparypa, � C
AT.MoccpepNde oca.q�
uIonR cpeAissie ro=n. xii, eiM/zod
4 5 6
18,4 I 10 1 580
100-150
600-700
IG-13 I -10=-12
I
18 ~ 9-10
1$,7 I I
7. Present time (Bryansk)
8. Cooling maximum (Late Valday)
9. Warming maximum (Mikulin interglacial)
10. Present time (Yakutsk)
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Table 6
Periods of Holocene (Blytt-Sernander Scheme)
KEY:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
io.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Nx:iescbt
1
A6conroT}iax
aaTxpoeKa
2
IlepxoAM
3
KnttMar
4
lap
12e00 5
ApxTxtiecxFtE~ N CV6BpKTfIq2CKHFi
11 XoaoAxstii
11000
(1703AH1SH ,qpNBC, aanepea)
PB
6
IIpe;t6opeanzxbIH 1
Bxavane npoxnaAxblit x cy-
BO
800G 7
fiopeanbxblH
xof#, sarem y.mepel= ren-
AT
5000 $
ArnajIT}iyecxxi 1
nUit
TenabiH x anwimbiic
BI-3
2000 9
Cy66opea.1btibIH c noApaaAene-
1
Teni~it tf cyxoi~
aFir3tH
A1_3
lo
CY62T18lITIt4fCKHl1 C 1IOAp83Ae-
IIPOX113AH5111 i[ 07aihltblil
Aff[ffASI1I 1
Indices
Absolute dating
Periods
Climate
Arctic and subarctic (Late Drias, Allered)
Preboreal
Boreal
Atlantic
Subboreal with subdivisions
Sub-Atlantic with subdivisions
Cold
Initially cool and dry, then moderately warm
Warm and moist
Warm and dry
Cool and moist
Many investigators of anthropogenic climatic changes feel that under the in-
f luence of an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and other fac-
tors in the next few decades there will be an increasing change in climate
in the direction of a warming. If this process occurs calmly, the climatic
c:.onditions of the last interglacial period can be rapidly overshadowed by
the formation of a"superinterglacial" period (Fig. 7). However, if such a
process of anthropogenic warming of climate is monitored and becomes con-
trollable, the best model can be an analogue of a"preglacial" period (the
rigtit arrow in Fig. 8), with which, however, models of a warm interglacial
period or a post-glacial climatic optimum can compete.
The hope must be expressed that even before the appearance of a radical
change in global climate under the influence of economic activity ways wi11
be found to modify climates, making it possible to prevent undesirable
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changes in man's environment and to ensure the entire earth stable optimum
climatic conditions.
In conclusion we will express several hypotheses concerning the principal
obj ectives of further paleoclimatic investigations. They are:
1. It is necessary to have a universal b.roadening of paleoclimatic (paleogeo-
graphic) investigations as a b asis for prognostic climatic studies. Togeth-
er with a thorough study of traditional objects (geological deposits and
paleobiological remains) particular attention must be devoted to an invest-
igation of thick strata of ancient continental ice, cave formations with
archeolagical remains, bottom deposits of major lakes and abyssal ocean
sediments. When carrying out these investigations it is necessary to ensure
the close cooperation of prof essional paleogeographers and paleobiologists.
2. There must be further development of present-day geomorphological, geo-
chemical, lithological and biological research methods, and among them, in
particular, isotopic methods for determining absolute age and geochemical
' methods for determining the characteristics of environmental conditions
(for example, temperature, salinity, gas composition, etc.) and paleoecol-
ogical peculiarities of organisms.
3. Attention must be concentrated on five time intervals having fundamental
prognostic importance: preglacial (12-2.5 million years), last interglacial
period (50-100 thousand years), last glaciation (18-20 thousand years), cli-
matic optimum of the post-glacial period (5-8 thousand years), and the so-
called "small glacial epoch" (1500-1800 A.D.).
4. As the fundamental method for the generalization of regional data it is
necessary to make extensive use of paleogeographic reconstructions in the
form of maps. and atlases for large regions of the land and ocean with their
maximum saturation with quantitative characteristics. On the basis of inter-
natioiial scientific cooperation.it is necessary to organize a generalization
of these regional materials for the northern and southern hemispheres and
the eiitire earth, in particular, for the main prognostic time periods (see
above).
5. On the basis of paleogeographic maps and atlases and the general theory
of climate it is necessary formulate conceptual and quantitative models of
former climates and climate-forming processes as p robabilistic prognostic
models.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
l. Budyko, M. I., KLIMAT I ZHIZN' (Climate and Life), Leningrad, Gidrometeo-
izdat, 1971.
2. Budyko, M. I., IZMENENIYE KLIMATA (Climatic Change), Leningrad, Gidro-
meteoizdat, 1974.
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3. Budyko, M. I., GLOBAL'NAYA EKOLOGIYA (Global Ecology), Moscow, Mysl',
1977.
4. Velichko, A. A., PRIRODNYY PROTSESS V PLEYSTOTSENE (Natural Process in
the Pleistocene), Moscow, Nauka, 1973.
5. Gerasimov, I. P., "The Anthropogene and its Main Problem," IZVESTIYA AN
SSSR, SERIYA GEOGRAF. (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Geograph-
ical Series.), No 4, 1977.
F~. Gerasimov, I. P., Markov, K. K., LEDNIKOVYY PERIOD NA TERRITORII SSSR
(Glacial Period Over the T'erritory of the USSR), Moscow-Leningrad,
Izd-vo AN SSSR, 1939.
7. PALEOGEOGRAFIYA YEVROPY V POZDNEM PLEYSTOTSENE: OPYTNYY MAKET ATLASA- MOIdOGRAFII (Paleogeography of Europe in the Late Pleistocene: Experi-
mental Model of an Atlas-Monograph), Moscow, 1973.
8. Sinitsyn, V. M., DREVNIYE KLIMATY YEVRAZII (Ancient Climates of Eurasia),
Leningrad, Izd-vo LGU, 1965-1966.
9. Strakhov, N. iT., OSNOVY ISTORICHESKOY GEOLOGII. CH. II (Princip les of
H:Is.torical Geology, Part IT_), Moscow-Leningrad, Gos. Izd-vo Geol.
Lit-ry, 1948.
- 10. Khoeinsl:iy, N. A., GOLOTSEN SEVERNOY YEVRAZII. OPYT TRANSKOPI'TINENTAL'NOY
KORRELYATSII ETAPOV RAZVITIYA RASTITEL'NOSTI I KLIMATA (Holocene of
_ Northern Eurasia. Experience in Transcontinental Correlation of Stages
in the Development of Vegetation and Clima."te), Moscow, Nauka, 1977.
11. Brooks., C. E. P., CLIMATE THROUGH THE AGES, S. Benn.-London, 1950.
12. "CLIMAP Project Members. The Surface of the Ice Age Earth," SCIENCE, ~
Vol 19, 1976.
13. Ftint, R. r., GLACIAL GEOLOGY AND THE PLEISTOCENE EPOCH, London, 1967.
14. I'.Lohn, H., "Ein Geaphysikalisches Eiszeit-Modell," EISZEITALTER UND
GEGENWART, 1969.
15. fiuntington, E., Visher, S. S., CLIMATIC CHANGES. THEIR NATURE AND CAUSES,
Yale Univ., New Haven, 1922.
16. Kerner-Marilaun, F., PALAOKLIMATOLOGIE, Berlin, 1930.
17. Koppen, Ld., Wegener, A., DIE KLIMATE DER GEOLOGISCHEN VORZEIT, Berlin,
1924.
18. Lamb, H. H., CLIMATE: PRESENT., pAST AND FUTURE, Vol 2, Methuen & Co Ltd.,
London, 1977.
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,
,
11. ,Iilankovich, M., MATHEMATISCHE KLIMAI,EHRE UND ASTRONOMISCHE THEORIE
DER KLIMASCHWANKUNGEN, Berlin, 1930.
20. Schwarzbach, M., DAS KLIMA DER VORZEIT, Stuttgart, 1950.
21. Zeuner, F., THE PLEISTOCENE PERIOD, Hutchinson, London, 1959.
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A
UDC 551.583.1
MONITORING OF CLIMATE AND THE SERVICE FOR COLLECTING CLIMATIC DATA
NECESSARY FOR DETERMINING CLIMATIC CHANGES AND FLUCTUATIONS.
MONITORING OF DATA RELATED TO CLIMATE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, .Iul 79 pp 54-67
[Article by Corresponding Member USSR Academy of Sciences Yu. A. Izrael',
USSK State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring,
submitted for publication 13 March 1979] w
~ AUstract: The author has formulated the pur-
poses and problems of climatic ffionitoring.
T:ne article defines the requirements on the
accuracy of ineasurements and the principles
for determining the priority for obtaining
the data used in man's economic activity and
for understanding climatic changes. The role
bf satellites in the monitoring of climate
is specially discussed. [This is the basic
content of a report at the World Climate Con-
ference (Geneva, 12-23 February 1979).]
[Text] 1. Introduction. The organization of climatic monitoring and a ser-
vice for Che collection of climatic data is a necessary link in the study
of climate, its possible changes and variations, practical use of informa-
tion on climate for managing and developing the economy, and optimization
of the relationships between human society and nature. The World Meteor-
ological Organization (WMO) and,many national meteorological services
have already for a long time been collecting such data and favoring their
use in man's practical activity. The first problem in the planned World
Climatic Program is climatic monitoring and the representation of climatic
data ~9]. This direction is also highly important in the Soviet compre-
hens:Lve program for investigating the earth's climate.
By the term "environmental monitoring" is meant a purposeful program of ob- ~
servations of the state of the environment. In many cases the term "monitor-
ing" is applied to an observation system making it possible to discriminate '
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changes in the state of the biosphere under the influence of anthropogenic
activity [4]. Monitoring, according to such a definition, includes observ-
ations, evaluation and prediction of anthropogenic changes, clarification
of the sourcea of effects and the reaeona for these changes. It ia also
possible to use the term "climatic monitoring" in such an underetanding.
If climate is regarded as an atmospheric phenomenon, it can be described by
a set of statistical characteristics of possible states of the atmosphere.
However, for an understanding of climatic changes and fluctuations it is
insufficient to have only atmospheric data; it is necessary to have informa-
tion on the state of the climatic system " atmo sphere- o c ean- cryo sphere- land
surface (with rivers and lakes)-biote," on the state and interaction of
elements of this system. It is obvious that for discriminating anthropo-
genic climatic changes and fluctuations it is necessary to make a careful
study of the natural variability of climate.
2. Place of Monitoring and the Service for Collecting Climatic Data in
Scientific Investigations and Solution or Practical Problems
A reliable description and evaluation of modern climate, prediction of its
possible chaiiges and fluctuations require a great amount of data and the
objective is a thorough analysis of the state of the environment and the
modeling of climate [15].
The solution of a great many practical, applied problems in agriculture,
power production, construction and other types of economic activity of
man require extensive climatic information. For these purposes the service
for the collection of climaCic data seems necessary and evidently has the
highest priority. �
An extensive mass of data on individual characteristics of elements of the
biosphere and on the processes determining climatic variabiltty is neces-
sary for the study of climatic changes and fluctuations and for an under-
standing of such changes. This applies, in particular, to study of the
natural spatial-temporal variability of climate on different scales.
The prediction of seasonal and year-to-year fluctuations of climate requires
the organization of a special global observation system, in general non-
uniform in space and in time. In order to organize such a system it is im-
portant to define the zones on the earth and in the world ocean which exert
the greatest influence on such fluctuations. For example, as demonstrated
by Academician Marchuk [13], the weather in a number of regions of the
northern hemisphere is substantially determined by the state of the ocean
and its interaction with the atmosphere in the equatorial part of the At-
lantic Ocean and some regions of the Pacific Ocean. Observatio:is directed to
s study of variability must take into account the inertia of the climatic
system.
The organization of the collection of data on climates of the past can also
be regarded as "monitoring" for this purpose it is necessary to create
a system for the collection and study of fossil and other indirect data
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run vrrlt,tAL uan ulvt,z
on possible climatic fluctuations and changes during recent centuries,
millenia and more remote time intervals. An analysis of such data makes
it possible to study ttie influence of changes in the climatic system on
climate in the past.
The possibility of anthropogenic climatic changes requires a study of the
influence of changes in the characteristics of the underlying surface (as
a result of construction of ma,jor hydraulic structures, changes in the area
of forest plantings and other effects) on climate, study of the anthropogenic
changes in the composition and optical properties of the atmosphere (as a
result of the ejection of aerosol particles and different gaseous impurit-
ies and also the possible influence of heat escape). An evaluation of global
atmospheric contamination and its influence on climate is recognized by
UNEP as one of the goals of the global system for monitoring of the.environ-
ment [7].
In turn, natural and anthropogenic climatic changes can exert an influence
on the state of the biosphere, causing different ecological consequences.
They can also exert a substantial influence on the economic activity of
man, and in the long run, on the health and well-being of man. This aspect
of the ir.vestigatlons is of enormous practical importance and requires the
organization of an observation sSTstem; study of the effect on ecological
systems in different regions evidently will require comprehensive observa-
L-ions in zones undisturbed by local anthropogenic activity zones of bio-
spheric reserves.
3. I'rincipal Goals and Problems
Thus, climatic monitoring aiid the collection of climatic data can be direct-
ed to solution of different problems, in accordance with which the prin-
cipal goals can be formulated in the following way:
study of change in climate-forming factors, determination of their spa-
tLa1.-temporal variations, obtaining factual climatic data for use in organ-
i:iiig and guiding the economy agriculture, water management, construction
and other directions in human ac*ivity;
iinderstanding (in.r.ludes analysis and evaluation) of natural and anthro-
pogenic climatir_ changes and fluctuations (including study of climates of
the past, comparison with state at the present time), changes in the state
of the climatic system; determination of the critical factors operative
in the direction of climatic changes (natural and anthropogenic factors)
and critical elements of the biosphere, modification of which can most
rapidly lead to climatic changes;
prediction of possible climatic changes and fluctuations, qualitative
and quantitative predictions of changes and the climatic trend.
In order to solve these problems, in addition to the creation of a climatic
monitoring system, it is necessary to carry out a broad research program,
carry out modeling of climatic variations and changes. It must be emphasized
that these directions are exceedingly closely related to one another.
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Tak:ing into account what has been said, the broad range of problems in
the monitoring of climate and obtaining data relating to possible climatic
changes and fluctuations can be broken down into the following sections:
a) measurement of the principal meteorological parameters, monitoring of ~
the atmospheric phenomena and processes characterizing the corresponding
regime of weather (climate); obtaining climatic data for use in organiz-
ing and conducting human economic activity;
b) monitoring of state of the climatic system, collection of data charac-
terizing the reaction of the climatic system and its elements to natural
and anthropogenic effects;
c) monitoring of factors (internal and external) exerting an influence on
climate and the state of the climatic system and their sources. Here it is
particularly necessary to discriminate the monitoring of anthropogenic fac-
tors;
d) monitoring of possible changes in the environment as a result of climatic
changes and fluctuations (physical, ecological), monitoring of indirect
indices of climatic variability;
e) obtaining additional characteristics necessary for the modeling of cl.i-
mate and a thorough analysis of the environment.
4. Monitoring of the Principal Hydrometeorological Parameters. Existing Sys-
tem
Section (a) includes data on weather received from meteorological stations
and also from aerological and radar stations, from ships and aircraft.
This includes measurements of air temperature (including daily extremal
values), atmospheric pressure, air humidity, wind velocity and direction,
intensity of precipitation, state of cloud cover (including the lower
boundary). The measurements of the principal hydrometeorological para-
meters (sometimes in combination with additional measurements) make it
possible to carry out monitoring of atmospheric phenomena and processes
(turbulence, circulation). Thus, additional measurements of evaporation
together with a number of the parameters enumerated above will make it pos-
sible to carry out observations of the moisture cycle.
In this section it is also necessary to include the collection of other
climatic and regime data necessary for use in different aspects of human
activity construction, agriculture, organization of transportation,
power production, water management, etc. For this it is necessary to draw
upon hydrological data, and also data on the snow cover, soil moisture con-
tent, data on soil freezing and some others. These data are obtained both
at meteorological (climatological) stations and at hydrological stations
and posts of national meteorologica]. and hydrological services. According
to approximate estimates, at the present time there are 40,000 climatolog-
ical and 140,000 precipitation-measuring stations in operation in the
world [10]. ['Che latter article describes and evaluates the global ob-
servation system. The observation system in the Soviet Union is a substan-
tial contribution to such a system.]
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The international exchange of basic weather data is the principal task of
the [dorld Weather Service (WWS) of the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO). The World Weather Service consists of a global observation system,
a global telecommunications system and a global data processing system.
World Weather System data are transmitted through the main transmission line
of the global telecommunications system. The fundamental synoptic network
of observation stations of the WMO, whose data are transmitted through the
main transmission line, consists of approx'imately 2,500 surface, 725 rawin
aerological and 720 radiosonde stations (1977) [3, 8]. Each day 2,600 ship-
board weather summaries (from more than 7,000 vessels) and 3,000 aircraft
weather summaries (1978) are received from regions of the world ocean.
Monthly climatological summaries with surface data are sent through the main
transmission line from 1,572 wind stations ("CLIMAT" telegrams), and with
aerological data from 509 stations ("CLIMAT-TEMP" telegrams) [3, 8]. Cli-
matic data arriving from approximately 1,250 surface and 430 aerological
stations are regularly published in the United States (Asheville) under
the authority of the WMO. Data from meteorological satellites and data from
rocket sounding of the atmosphere (to altitudes 60-80 km) are regularly
transmitted. Section 9 of this article is devoted to satellite measurements.
A substantial brnadening of observations of the narameters characterizing
the state of the atmosphere and its interaction with the ocean will come
about during the global meteorological experiment within the framework of
the GARP progratn. Observations of the composition of the atmosphere can
alsc) be included in this aspect of monitoring. Here, evidently, one must
include measurements of the atmospheric components subject to changes to
sucti an extent that this can exert an appreciable influence on climate. As
sucli atmospheric components we must presently include carbon dioxide (C02)
and ozone (03) (in the stratosphere). Different impurities of natural and
antliropogenic origin, electromagnetic radiations and thermal contamination
can be regarded as factors exerting an influence on climate or the climatic
system (see Section 6).
The number of precision stations observing changes in the content of atmo-
spheric carbon d ioxide is small (four). These observations are being made
in places quite remote from local (natural and anthropogenic) sources of
- CO` (at base monitoring stations).
Tte monitoring of ozone is being carried out considerably more broadly. The
exchange of data (WORLD OZONE DATA is heing published in Canada) on the
total quantity of ozone is being accomplished for approximately 80 stations.
The vertical distribution of ozone according to data from uzonosonde observa-
tions is given for approximately 10 stations [14].
5. Monitoring of State of the Climatic System
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Monitoring of the state of the climatic syetem is close to monitoring of
the state of the biosphere as a whole (ecological monitoring), but it
reveals only such interactions and effects which are directly related to
climatic change. This includes monitoring of climate-forming factors and
also parameters characterizing the reaction of the climatic system and its
elements to different effects which can exert an influence on climatic
changes.
This section should include, first of all: monitoring of state of the under-
lying surface (determination of albedo), energy and mass exchange between
- the atmosphere and the underlying surface; measurements of the area of sea,
river and lake ice, glaciers; measurements of the area and the volume of
the snow cover on a plain anci in the mountains, surface of water features
on the land; determination of the surface and biomass of the plant cover,
area of zones turning to desert; measurements of the moisture content in
the soil and vegetation, observation and study of circulation of waters of
the ocean, optical properties and mass of the atmosphere, state of the
ozonosphere.
Observations oE the state of the atmosphere and its composition are quite
fu.lly overlapped by monitoring of the principal meteorological.parameters
and the other data described in Section 4.
Monitoring of the state of the ocean is ensured by measurement of the tem-
perature of the sea surface and the subsurface layer, salinity and chemical
composition of water, waves and currents at different depths. These measure-
ments are made within the framework of the WMO World Weather Service/Inter-
national Oceanographic Commission, using a large number of ships and a num-
ber of oceanic stations and buoys.
The study of interaction between the atmosphere and ocean is ensured by sea
climatological measurements of air and sea temperature, dew point, visibil-
ity, wind direction and force, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover and waves
(the exchange uf information is accomplished under the code "SHIP"), as well
as bathythermographic measurements of the subsurface ocean temperature. Dur-
ing a global international meteorological experiment similar measurements
are made from additional ships, ocean stations and buoys.
The cryosphere considerably influences and sensitively reacts to different
effects and climatic changes. In monitoring of the state of the cryosphere,
in addition to monitoring of the snow cover, glaciers, sea, river and lake
ice, there must be monitoring of zones of permafrost and determination of
changes in these zones.
6. Monitoring of Climate-Forming Factors
The monitoring of factors exerting an influence on the state of the cli-
matic system and climate (point "c," Section 3) and the sources of the
modifying factors (reasons for the appearance or change in factors)
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is very important. The mentioned factors can be classified as external (rel-
ative to the earth's climatic system) and internal, and the sources of in-
ternal factors can be classified as natural and anthropogenic.
In this work the factors caused by the influence of the sun and cosmic radi-
ations are classiPied as external factors. Among the solar effect factors
we must include electromagnetic solar radiation in a broad spectral range
(including ultraviolet radiation, hard electromagnetic radiation); corpus-
cular streams of different energies; the magnetic field. The intensity of
the influencing factors is dependent on solar activity, the parameters of
the earth's orbit, velocity of the earth's rotation. The effects of the
influence are determined by the intensity of the modifying factors, the
properties and composition of the earth's atmosphere, the properties of the
earth's surface (albedo of the earth's surface).
rieasurements of solar radiation are made by the world actinometric network
(more than 900 stations [3]). Direct, scattered and reflected radiation is
measured; integral atmospheric transparency is determined, as is albedo
of the underlying surface; computations are made of total radiation, the
balance of shor.t- and long-wave radiation. The data are sent to the World
Center in Leningrad where they are published annually.
Measiirements of UV radiation are made by ozonometric sta.tions; x-radiation
anci hard electromagnetic radiation and streams of solar corpuscular radia-
tion are measured on artificial earth satellites; cosmic radiation is meas-
ured at special stations and from satellites.
Among the inter.nal factors exerting an influence on climate and the cli-
matic system we include heat discharges and the ejection (entry) of dif-
ferent substances into the biosphere or their redistribution among dif-
ferent media natural (eruption of volcanoes, weathering) and anthropo-
genic the release of heat when man uses energy, contamination of the
biosphere, radiation of different anthropogenic sources. The enumerated
modifying factars lead to changes in the properties of the climatic system:
ttiere is a change in the albedo of the underlying surface, heat and gas ex-
c}Ianf;e. Changes in the state of elements of the climatic system change
in the character of the underlying surface as a result of anthropogenic
factors (creation of irrigation systems, plowing of the soil, change in the
area of planted crops, urbanization) and natural factors (often in the pres-
ence of anthropogenic factors) change in the area of the snow cover and
sea ice; change in the composition and properties (for example, transpar-
ency) of the atmosphere as a result of ejection of aerosol particles and
_ different substances are climate-forming factors.
In some cases a number of the enumerated factors can be considered exter-
nal relative to the part of the system where the effects of modification
and change are determined. For example, a model in which the internal and
external systems are different is examined in [17]. In that study, in ad-
dition to solar radiation, the surface characteristics of the land and the
albedo of the vegetation cover are assigned to the external system.
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- Measurements of changes in the principal components
contaminations are carried out at the national level
type of ineasurements is a highly important component
monitoring system.
of the atmosphere and
in many countries; this
part of the global
Measurements of the background level of atmospheric contaminations are made
in the network of background stations of the WMO, consisting of 176 sta-
tions, of which 75 transmit data on the chemical composition of precipita-
tion as well and 60 transmit data on atmospheric turbidity [3].
In the development of monitoring special attention must be devoted to meas-
urements of small impurities in the troposphere capable of exerting an in-
fluence on the ozone content in the stratosphere by means of a change in
hydrogen, nitrogen and chlorine natural cycles. For this it is necessary to
carry out measurements of freons (fluorochloromethanes), nitrous oxide, etc.
Special measurements are being made of the aerosol component of the atmo-
sphere; indirect data on aerosols are obtained in a comparison of direct
and scattered radiation in actinometric observations. Heat discharges are
evaluated on the basis of the temperature change (in the air and water) in
the escape zone. Volcanic activity is carefully registered. A catalogue
of all major eruptions of volcanoes on the earth is being compiled.
The climate-forming factors enumerated above are observed (can be observed)
from artificial earth satellites (AES).
7. Monitoring of Consequences of Climatic Changes and Fluctuations
As noted, climatic changes and fluctuations can have a substantial effect
on the state of the biosphere and the results of man's economic activity.
It is obvious that some effects in the biosphere arising as a result of
climatic changes and fluctuations (change in moisture cycle, total biomass
in ecological systems, ete.) can intensify or lessen the effect of other
factors (as a result of the presence of positive or negative feed'uacks).
The organization of monitoring of such changes and the detection of such
changes is an important new direction in monitoring. The changes arising
in this case in elements of the climatic system, and the ecological con-
sequences of climatic changes, in turn can be sensitive indices of the
very fact of climatic change and the characteristics of such changes are
frequently called indirect indices of climatic changes.
The elements of the biosphere most sensitive to climatic changes are those
which are situated in the high latitudes (polar ice, tundra ecosystems,
ecosystems of shelf polar zones), and also ecosystems of aones being trans-
formed to deserts, lakes situated in arid regions.
Hmong the indirect climatic indices we can include changes in the levels,
of seas, lakes and rivers and shoreline changes; changes in the boundaries
of natural zones, annual layers of bottom deposits of lakes and annual
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layers in glaciers; changes in the snow line and places of permanent ac-
cumulation of snow in the mountains and also the limits of occurrence of
glaciers.
Here we can also include a series of ecologic.al data: on change in the char-
acter of vegetation, the yield of differtnt crops, population of insects,
sea microflora and microfauna, on the nature crf distribution.of diseases
of animals and plants, especially in zones with the greatest sensitivity
to climatic changes. In organizing observations of such criteria it is
necessary to exclude local anthropogenic effects of any character (for
example, the level of a river or lake can decrease sharply as a result of
removal of part of the runoff for irrigation).
Sometimes the need arises for obtaining additional data (such as those
which were enumerated in the preceding sections) for carrying out a thorough
analysis of the environment and carrying out the modeling of climate. On
the other hand, thorough analysis and modeling make it possible to detect
the most important (critical) modifying factors and the most sensitive
elements of the biosphere (from the point of view of subsequent influence
on climate), that is, to ensure complete scientific validation and optim-
ization of the system of climatic monitoring and collection of data relat-
ing to climatic changes and fluctuations.
8. Problems of Priority and Accuracy in Measurements in Developing the
;lonitoring of Climate and a Service for Collecting Climatic Data
A determination of priorities in observations of the parameters and factor.s
relating to climate and the accuracy of these observations are essentially
dependent on t11e specific purposes for which the collected information is
intended.
It is obvious that climatic information can be used (in accordance with the
prLncipal prob:lems enumerated in Section 3) :
for solving practical problems related to different directions in human
activity in agriciilture, construction, power production, city management,
etc.;
for the modeling of climate for the purpose of determining the sensitiv-
ity ot climate to changes in different parameters and prediction of pos-
s1_ble climatic changes and fluctuations;
for detecting the onset of climatic changes;
f.or detecting the anthropogenic component of climatic change and deter-
mining the reasons (sources, factors) for such changes.
The choice of the parameters most important for solving different practical
problems and the requirements on the accuracy of their measurement are de-
termined for each direction in human activity, taking into account its
specifics, technical level and regional peculiarities. This work is usual-
ly carried out by national meteorological services; the mentioned work
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is also carried out within the framework of the WMO. Here, evidently,
it is r.ecessary to go in the direction of filling the gaps in existing net
works of climatological stations, the creation of climatic data banks.
An important problem is the choice of the parameters and determination
among them of the priorities for the modeling of climate. This problem
is being worked through in detail in connection with the second task of
the Program for Investigation of Global Atmospheric Processes (GARP) [15].
Below we give a composite table (Table 1) reflecting the point of view ex-
pressed in [15] concerning the order of priority and the accuracy of ineas-
urements necessary at the present and in the future (during and after im-
plementation of the International Global Experiment) for the modeling of
climate (the necessary and desirable measurement accuracy values are given
as the value intervals). The presented proposals were formulated as a
supplement to the existing system of observations on the basis of the World
Weather Service.
Table 1
Values (in Priority Sequence) and Required Measurement Accuracy Necessary
for Purposes of Climatic Modeling
Measured Parameter
Radiation balance of "earth-atmosphere" system
Cloud cover
SurFace tenperature and Yieat content of active
layer of ocean
Extent of snow cover and sea ice
Albedo of earth's surface
Precipitation c,ver land and sea
Soil moisture content and runoff from main
river basins
Temperature of soil and ice surface
Gas components of atmosphere and particles:
ozone (total quantity, vertical distribution)
carbon dioxide
tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols
atmospheric turbidity
Wind shearing stress
Accuracy
2-15 W/m2
5% with respect to
coverage, 1�C with
respect to temperature
of upper part
0.5-1.5�C, 1-3 Cal/cm2
resolution 50-100 km
0.01-O.d3
1-3 mm/day
10%
1-3 � C
1-5%
f0.5 ppm, 2 km vertical
t0.1 ppm
5% by volume
1%
0.1-0.4 dyne/cm2
This work, in essence, is a formulation of the requirements on the accuracy
of ineasurements of the developing (future) observation system, which, to
be sure, can be used not only for the modeling of climate, but also for the
other purposes formulated in Section 3 and the beginning of this section.
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- It is also necessary to measure sea level and the characteristics of surface
currents, deep circulation in the ocean, thickness and drift of sea ice, and
make observations of the polar ice caps (changes in boundaries and thick-
nesses).
In source [15J, on the basis of which the table was prepared, we have indi-
- cated the required and desirable resolution of ineasurements in space and
time, relatively uniform over the entire earth.
However, we feel that in the choice of the spatial and temporal resolution
the priorities should also be determined. For example, the zones of the
world ocean exerting an influence particularly strongly on some particular
region (as this was demonstrated in a study by Marchuk [13]), must be cover-
ed by a more frequent (in time and space) network of observations. The ac-
curacy in measuring the principal parameter temperature of the sea sur-
face in such zones must be at least 0.2�C. Evidently, it is also neces-
sary to carry out work for selecting sectors of small areas of the ocean,
but representative of relatively large regions, for the organization of
appropriate observations at these points.
In order to determine the possible climatic changes (including anthropogen-
ic) it is necessary to select observations of changes in the state of ele-
ments of the biosphere most sensitive to changes in the climate of the
b:Losphere (on a global and local scale) both direct arid indirect indices
of changes. .
Recentiy published studies have given detailed descriptions of possible con-
sequences and transformations of the most sensitive elements of the bio-
sphere associated with possible changes in climate. The following can be
cons:Lderecl indices of climatic change:
averaged air temperature, particularly for the high latitudes; estent and limits of sea ice in the polar regions;
limits of glaciers in the high and middle latitudes;
- 1eve1 of internal seas and lakes;
prec.ipitation and soil moisture content.
The most complex problem is discriminating the anthropogenic component of pos-
_ slble climatic changes, and also a search for the reasons for such changes.
For these purposes it is necessary to define the elements most subject to
anthropogenic influence some components of the radiation balance, atmo-
spheric transparency, atmospheric content of different impurities, ete.
It must be remembered that it is easier to discriminate 1oca1 anthropogenic
changes in climate than global changes; it is easier to detect changes in the
polar latitudes than in the middle or low latitudes.
In order to detect anthropogenic effects it is necessary to make observations
with the greatest accuracy, established by means of modeling.
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The development of a system for climatic monitoring and a service for the
collection of climatic data should rest on already existing observation sys-
tems the national networks of climatological stations, the World Weather
Service and also on different developing observation systems the national
systems for observing the state of the environment, background and local con-
taminations, and on the global system for monitoring the environment. There
is a need for a considerable filtering of the collected data; at the same
time there must be filtering (by means of determining priorities) of the re-
quirements imposed on the observation system and measurement accuracy.
Without question, the climatic monitoring system requires the organization of
obseivations and evaluation of a number of characteristics and factors not
provided for under the program of the enumerated systems.
Climatic monitoring and data service for climatic changes and fluctuations
will require the development of very new technical observation means (espec-
ially remote, including the use of radars and lasers) and automated data pro-
cessing systems. It is desirable to have a combination of surface observa-
tions and observations from space. An exceptional role in the development of
such a system should be played by a satellite; system.
9. Role of Satellites in Climatic Monitoring
The possibilities (and desirability) of using satellite systems for obtaining
information on the earth's climate and the state of the climatic system can
arbitrarily be broken down as follows:
1) measurement of ineteorological parameters and obtaining other data impor-
tant for understanding climatic fluctuations and changes in places where
there are surface observation facilities;
' 2) measurements of these same parameters and collection of data in inacess-
ible (for surface measurements) regions in continental (a) and oceanic
(b) regions;
3) measurements of parameters and factors hard to obtain or not subject to di-
rect determination from the earth's surface:
a) integral characteristics of the underlying surface (albedo, parameters
cha;:acterizing energy- and mass exchange of the underlying surface with
ttie atmosphere),
b) some components of the radiation balance of the "earth-atmosphere" sys-
tem (reflected solar radiation and long-wave outgoing radiation from
terrestrial objects),
c) corpuscular and hard electromagnetic solar.and cosmic radiation;
4) use of satellites for routine transmission of data from inaccessible re-
gions of the earth.
The priority (the order is indicated by Roman numerals) in use of the enum-
erated possibilities 1-3 for use of satellite systems, taking into account
a functioning surface observation system, is represented as follows:
' Tyne of satellite use
Priority
1 2a 2b
III II I
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3a 3b 3c
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At the present L�ime satellites are used (or can be used) for making a num-
ber of highly important observat-ions: cloud cover and wind fielda; air tem-
perature and humidity at different altitudea; temperature of the ,-.-~an sur-
face; extent of boundaries of sea ice and tae seasonal snow cover ct the
land; areas covered by vegetation (and the characteristics of their state)
on the land or plankton in the ocean; soil moisture content, zones and in-
Lensity of precipitation; principal components of the radiation balance [2,
12, 16]).
The satellite subsystem is a part of the World Weather Service global observ-
ation system. The information is supplied from satellites situated in cir-
cumpolar and geostationary orbits.
Cloud cover Fields have already been identified more than ten years; it is
_ necessary to increase the accuracy in determini.ng cloud cover altitude.
7'emperature profiles are determined from an analysis of data on IR or micro-
wave radiation in the absorption bands for gases with a known concentration
(for example, carbon dioxide). The accuracy of the reconstructed profiles
attains 2-3�C.
'rfie determination of ocean surface temperature is made using radiation meas-
urements in the IR range; the me;asurement accuracy is f1-1.5�C and is limit-
ed by absorption by the cloud cover, by dust layers and other interfer-
ence. It is necessary to emphasize the importance of determining the tem- .
pe.ratur.e of the ocean surface; using this parameter it is possible to make
1n approximate determination of the heat content of the active layer of the
ocean and use this parameter for making quantitative judgments concerning
tiie turbu:leat exchange of heat and maisture between the atmosphere and
ocean. II1 this connection it is necessary to have an accuracy in determin-
ins temperature of the surface layer of the ocean to several tenths of a
degree. The accuracy in determining temperature of the land was somewhat
- poorer r.han the accuracy in determining temperature of the ocean surface.
"I't:e boundary and extent of the ice and snow covers are determined in the
visible range with sufficient accuracy. A combination of simultaneous ob-
servati.ons in the -visible and IR ranges makes it possible to determine
di.Fferent types of polar ice and measurements in the microwave range (in
the region of wavelengths about 1.5 cm) make it possible, with a great
a,^uracy, to distingui.sh regions covered by ice and open water, ice of dif-
ierent age and thickness.
:>ome surtace properties (vegetation, quantity of plankton) are determined
it.sfng multispectrai photographs. The soil moisture content and precipita-
tion can be determined using microwave radiometers. Satellites afford
broad possibilities �or measuring a number of characteristics of elements
of [tie climatic systems and other parameters subject to anthropogenic in-
iltiences. Anthropo genic influences can exert a substantia'1 influence on
atmosptieric turbidity and favor an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide,
~ 77
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the appearance of impurities exerting an influence on the ozonosphere
(freons, nitrous oxide). Dust layers (turbidity) are identified from sat-
ellites by means of photographing of the horizon region and the angular
distribution and polarization of scattered solar radiation. The total
quantity cf some gaseous atmospheric components, such as water vapor, car-
bon dioxide and ozone can be determined using spectrometry of the absorp-
tion bands of radiated thermal and reflected solar radiation. It is also
possible to determine the vertical distribution of ozone.
The interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and the albedo of the
ocean can be considerably influenced by contamination by petroleum prod-
ucts, the formation of films on the ocean surface impairing mass exchange
between the ocean and the atnosphere. The detection of films from satel--
lites is possible using multispectral photographs.
- The fraction of satellite data in all the information on anthropogenic
- changes of the land surface is exceptionally great. Using data from sat-
ellites it is possible to evaluate the change in the vegetation cover as
a result of cutting of forests, advance of deserts, and changes in the
character of agricultural crops, which makes it possible to judge the
reasons for changes in the albedo of the earth's surface. Effects associated
with urbanization also exert an influence on albedo. Large irrigation struc-
tures and the redistribution of water resources exert an influence on the
nature of thz moisture cycle and surface albedo; changes in the snow cover
in the neighborhood of cities and industrial regions are easily traced f.rom
satellites. All these data are obtained during the processing of satellite
photographs (in diff erent intervals of the visible and IR ranges). Suomi
[17] proposes that the total quantity of relPased anthropogenic energy
be determined on the basis of scattered electric light (at nighttime) (by
statistically relating these two parameters).
The components of the radiation balance corresponding to reflected solar
radiation (in the spectral range 0.3-3.0 w m) and the thermal radiation of
the earth's surface (in the wavelength range 3-100,,xm) are essentially de-
pendent on anthropogen.ic factors (anthropogenic change in albedo of the
earth's surface, tntensity of thermal radiation of terrestrial objects).
All the radiation balance components are determined from satellites. Some
components can be ascertained with better accuracy than from the earth's
surface.
Anthropogenic changes in circumterrestrial space are also successfully de-
termined by means of satellite observations. For example, the earth's radi-
ation belts were determined by radiametric instr:iments mounted aboard a
satellite.
10. Role of Monitoring in Formulating Criteria of the Admissibility of
Anthropogenic Eff ects on the Climatic System
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An analysis of possible anthropogenic climatic changes and fluctuations,
the causes and sources of anthropogenic effects, directly or indirectly
associated with climatic changes, in principle makes it possible to form-
ulate the limits of such effects in which climate and the climatic system
will be within the framework of natural fluctuations (for example, in the
- time interval of the last century) on global or local scales.
It is evident that such criteria can be formulated for a complex of effects
and the individual most important factors (in such cases the intensity
ratios of individual factors may be different when there is a fixed effect-
iveness of the overall result). For example, these criteria can be related to
a limitation on the carbon dioxide concentration in atmospheric air, the
rate of its entry into the atnosphere, limitation on the release of anthropo-
genic heat and different contaminants (such as freons) into the environment,
setting limits on dust content of the troposphere and stratosphere. Nonad-
herence to such criteria can lead to appreciable climatic changes.
The formulation of such criteria implies a determination of the critical
(potentially most dangerous) factors exerting an influence on the climatic
system, a determination of the admissible degrees of influence on the most
sensitive elements of the biosphere and the system as a whole.
The abi.lity to discriminate such influences and eff.ects by means of a monitor-
ing system (in combination with the modeling of climate) and the timely adop-
tion of ineasures of a scientific, technical and social character for the
limitation of these effects within the tramework of the formulated criteria
will eliminate the danger of undesirable or even catastrophic climatic
changes.
11. Sucmnary
'ftiis article describes (and generalizes) current points of view of experts
of djfferent countries and international organizations with respect to the
cr.onitoring of climate and a service for the collection of climatic data (5,
10, 11, 14, 15, 171.
We have emptlasized ttie need for discriminating from a great number of envir-
onmental characteristics and influences those which are most importar.t and
necessary for attaining the formulated goals obtaining climatic data'
Eor solving practical problems, determining the characteristics of state
of the climatic system and factors influencing this state for studying
and understanding climatic changes and fluctuations, discriminating anthro-
pagenic influences and effects of climatic changes. The monitoring of
changes in the biosphere associated with climatic changes is a new direc-
tion in monitoring.
The next task is a detailed working out of monitoring schemes for satisfying
the enumerated purposes, as detailed as was the case for climatic modeling
[15]. It is desirable to achieve the development and organization of such
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a monitoring system by means of which it would become possible (in combina--
tion with climatic modeling) to have reliable discrimination of anthropo-
genic and other influences and effects associated with the greatest impact
on the biosphere (from the point of view of possible climatic changes) for
the adoption of effective prophylactic measures directed against the onset
of undesirable or even catastrophic climatic changes.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
l. Budyko, M. I., IZMENENIYA KLIMATA (Climatic Changes), Leningrad, Gidro-
meteoizdat, 1974.
2. Vetlov, I. P., "Results of Investigations in the Field of Satellite
Meteorology," SOVREMENNYYE PROBLEMY GIDROMETEOROLOGII (Modern Problems
in Hydrometeorology), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1977.
3. WMO ANNUAL REPORT FOR 1977, WMO Publication No 502, 19i8.
4. rzrael', Yu. A., "Global Observation System. Prediction and Evaluation
- of Changes in the State of the Environment. Principles of Monitoring,"
METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 7, 1974.
5. :Czrael', Yu. A., "Monitoring the State of the Biosphere and Climate,"
Report at the Soviet-American Symposium on Climatic Change, Leningrad,
June 1977.
6, Kellogg, Ld.W., "Influence of Human Activity on Climate," BYULLETEN' VMO
(World Meteorological Organization Bulletin), Vol XXVI, No 4, 1977;
Vol XXVII, No 4, 1978.
7. MATERIALY MEZHPRAVITEL'STVENNOGO SOVESHCHANIYA PO MONITORING (Materials
of the Intergovernmental Conference on Monitoring), Nairobi, 1974.
8. TENTH REPORT ON IMPLEMEN'PATION OF A WGRLD WEATHER SFRVICE, WMO Publica-
tion No 518, 1978.
9. ABBREVIATED REPORT OF THE TWENTY-NINTH SESSION OF THE WMO EXECUTIVE
, COMMITTEE WITH RESOLUTIONS, Geneva, 1977.
10. BACKGROUND PAPER ON CLIMATE�-RELATED MONIT(;RING, UNEP-WMO lloc. for UNEP/
WMO Gov. Experts Meet., Geneva, April 1978.
11. ELEMENTS OF THE RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR THE UNITED STATES CLIMATE PRO-
GRAM, Nat. Acad. Sci., Washington, D. C., 1978.

12. Johnson, D. S., Vetlov, I. P., The Role of Satellites in WMO Programmes
in the 1980's," WORLD WEATHER WATCH PLANNING REPORT, No 36.
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13. Marchuk, G. I., "Formulation of the Theory of Perturbations for Com-
plicated Models," GEOFISICA INTERNATIONAL, 15, No 2, 3, Mexico, 1975.
_ 14. Munn, R. E., "Global Atmospheric Monitoring System," Appendix 11.2 of
(15).
15. "The Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modelling," GARP PUBL. SER.
No 16, Geneva, WMO/ICSU, 1975.
16. Raschke, E., "Satellite Capability in Monitoring Climate Parameters,"
Appendix 11.1 of (15).
17. Suomi, V. E., "The Need for Climate Monitoring," ENERGY AND CLIMATE,
Nat. Acad. Sci., Washington, 1977.
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UDC 327.78:551.583
CONCISE RESULTS OF THE WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 68-76
[Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences V. G. Boldyrev,
US5R State Committee on hydrameteorology and Environmental Monitoring, sub-
mit-ted for publication 10 April 1979]
Abstract: The author presents concise results
of the work of the World Climate Conference,
arganized by the World Meteorological Organ-
ization and held in Geneva during the period
12-23 February 1979 and information on the
principal recommendations of the conference.
[The full name of the conference was: World
Climate Conference Conference of Experts
on "Climate and Mankind".]
[Text] As is well known, 25 official reports were prepared for the World
Clim3te Conference. Four of them were presented by Soviet scientists:
Academician Ye. K. Fedorov, I. P. Gerasimov, G. I. Marchuk and Correspond-
ing Member USSR Academy of Sciences Yu. A. Izrael'.
The presentation of reports began with the introductory words of the con-
ference chairman R. White (United States), who noted the necessity for
strengthening international cooperation for solving the problem of in-
vestigating climate and evaluating its tendencies and the importance of
formulating recommendations on lessening the economic, social and other
effects of climatic changes. _
Academician Ye. K. Fedorov, in a report entitled "Climatic Changes and Man-
kind's Strategy," analyzed the natural and inadvertent anthropogenic
changes in climate on regional and global scales, intentional modifica-
tions of climate and the influence of climatic changes on mankind (the
basic content of this report by Xe. K. Fedorov is published in this number
of the journal). The report of Ye. K. Fedorov caused enlivened discussion,
during which a number of conferees supported the ma.in content of the re-
port.
,
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A series of reports on the theme "The Global System Determining Climate"
was opened with a report of the Swedish scientist B. Bolin entitled "Global
Ecology and Man."
The report reflected the concern that human activity is exerting such an
influence on regional and global processes in the biosphere that this is
disrupting the established balance. The author examined global biogeochem-
ical cycles carbon, nitrogen and sulfur av.3 gave some evaluations
of the possible modification of these cycles as a result of human activity.
However, the author was extremely careful in his evaluations of the pos-
sible future state of the global ecological system. It is only asserted
that since in general the relationship is known between climatic character-
istics (temperature, precipitation) and types of b iomes and soil, in the
first approximation it is possible to determine how a land biote changes
as a result of a climatic change. However, in the opinion of B. Bolin,
a deterioration of state or deotruction of an ecosystem can occur far more
rapidly than a transition to some state optimum for the particular condi-
tions. It is therefore concluded that a global change in climate in all
probability is associated with a decrease in the productivity of the earth's
ecosystem as a whole, although in individual regions productivity can in-
crease.
The report of F. K. Hare (Canada), entitled "Climatic Ctiange and Climatic
Variability," summarized data on climatic variations at different time
scales. The author took exceptional care to see to it that no unambiguous
conclusioa could be drawn from his report concerning the future behavior
of the climatic system. In particular, in the author's opinicn, it is un-
clear whether there will continue to be a tendency to a decrease in tem-
perature observed during recent years. The author's objective, however,
included emphasizing that regardless of the existence of any climatic
trend there have occurred and will occur aperiodic climatic variations
at relatively small time scales (some years). It is therefore important
that there be no decline in interest in the problem of climatic variability
and that constant preparations be made-for inevitable climatic anomalies.
It should be noted that in the discussion of the report it was observed
that there is a need for careful examination of statistical data in order
to avoid incorrect conclusions. In particular, doubt was cast on the
statements made during the last ten years concerning the increasing var-
~ iability of climate.
Academician I. P. Gerasimov, in his report entitled "Clima.tes of Past Geo-
logical Epochs," in addition to a review of paleoclimatic investigations,
substantiated the concept of prognostic use of paleoclimatic data. I. P.
Gerasimov emphasized that a study of paleoclimates provides initial data
and creares scientific scenarios for formulating models of future climates.
Thus, if a warming of climate occurs, according to paleogeographic data
it is necessary to expect first the setting-in of an interglacial period
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climate, and then a climate similar to the climate of the Miocene-Pliocene,
that is, a warm and moist climate, rather uniform over great areas.
A report by W. L. Gates (United States), entitled "Physical Principles of
Climate," contained general definitions of a clima.tic system and the phys-
ical processes transpiring in this system. The author gave particular em-
phasis to the problem of climatic changes, but he noted that our knowledge
of the physical principles of climate (satisfactory in themselves) never-
theless do not make it possible to explain the observed climatic changes.
W. L. Gates emphasized the role of mathematical modeling for seeking such
explanations and noted that under conditions of anthropogenic modification
of climate modeling is the only method for evaluating the development of
future climate.
The modeling of climatic changes and the problem of long-range weather fore-
casting was the subject of a report by Academician G. I. Marchuk (see this
issue of the journal). In the discussion of the report many of the speak-
ers supported the idea of G. I. Marchuk that it is necessary to create a
system of hydrophysical observations for obtaining data for long-range
weather forecasting models.
The resport by Corresponding Member USSR Academy of Sciences Yu. A. Izrael'
presented the basic goals and problems in climatic monitoring, gave an an-
alysis of the existing system and mentioned ways to improve the monitoring
system (the basic content of the report by Yu. A. Izrael' is published in
this number of the journal).
A report by R. Mann (Canada) and L. Machta (United States), entitled "Man's
Activity Exerting an Influence on Climate," dealt with the following types
of anthropogenic effects:
change in atmospheric composition;
discharge of heat into the atmosphere;
change in ttie physical and biological properties of underlying surfaces.
With respect tc) changes in atmospheric composition by means of discharge of
gases and particles, the authors emphasize the influence of carbon dioxide,
assuming that it is relatively great in comparison with the possible in-
fltience of nitrogen oxides, halocarbons, etc. However, in the opinion of
the authors, at the.present tirue it is difficult to determine the absolute
va]_ues of climatic changes as a result of the influence of these gases by
the use of numerical models.
It also follows from the report that the authors do not consider it pos-
sible to indicate precisely the sign of temperature change of the "earth-
atmosphere" system due to the influence of an increase in the concentration
of particles in the atmosphere. In exactly the same way, in an examination of
processes in the stratosphere the authors only enumerate the possible mech-
anisms of stratospheric disturbance and the possible reasons for change in
ozone content; no conclusion is drawn as to whether an increase or decrease
of stratospheric ozone should be expected.
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In summarizing modern. estimates, R. Mann and L. Machta conclude that on
a Klobal scale the energy produced by man is only a small part of the
solar energy iiicident on the earth's surface. However, on a local or even
on a regional scale the quantities of solar energy and heat of anthropogenic
origin can be c:omparable.
In a discussioTi of the influence of properties of the underlying surface
on climate the authors again limit themselves to an enumeration of the
possible ways in which this influence is exerted without drawing quanti-
tative conclusions concerning the magnitude of climatic changes. However,
it can be concluded that the influence of changes in the characteristics
o~F the underlying surface is manifested for the most part on local and
regional scales.
As already noted, the authors separately examine the question of the influ-
ence of change in the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere on cli-
mate. Citing well-known data on increase in the concentration of atmo-
spheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during recent decades, model es-
timates of its future content and the results of computations of possible
climatic changes, the authors assert that the difficulties in modeling of
climau. do not make possible a reliable prediction of climatic changes.
The general conclusions from the report are as follows:
local and regional climates can be changed as a result of man's activity;
although the chemical composition of the atmosphere on a global scale
can be ctianged by man, there is no proof that man's activity exerts an in-
fliience on global climate (it is possible that this influence exists, but
for the time being renains undiscovered).
B. J. Mason (Gr.eat Britain) devoted a large part of his report, entitled
"Some Results oi Climatic Experiments With Numerical Models," to an expo-
sition of the results of computations of reaction of the climatic system
to different natural and anthropogenic disturbances. For numerical experi-
meTtts use was made o� different models of the atmosphere developed by the
Br:itish Meteorological Service. In many cases the author limited himself
to an exposition of earlier published results of numerical experiments
carried out in other countries. Here it is of interest to cite some con-
clusions drawn by the author concerning the influence of anthropogenic
effects on climate:
an increase in the concentration of stratospheric aerosols does not ex-
ert a significant influence on the temperature regime at the earth's sur-
iace; on this basis it is asserted that the coolings-of climate in the
past scarcely were caused by the eruptiona of volcanoes;
a dECrease in the stratospheric concentration of ozone does not lead to
appreciable changes in temperature and precipitation in the lower atmo-
sphere.
With respect to the pussibilities of changing the ozone concentration as
a result of human activity, in the report it is asserted that:
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the principal factor destroying the ozone layer is the ejection of
hal.ocarbons (freons) into the atmosphere; nitrogen oxides exert a far
lesser influence on ozone;
an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration is leading to an in-
crease in the ozone concentration, which to a definite degree can compen-
sate for the destructive influence of halocarbons.
However, it is clear that these results, obtained in experiments for deter-
mining the sensitivity of climate to different factors, are in need of
careful checking with the use of more modern models taking into account
the entire complex of interactions in the climatic system.
General considerations with respect to the evaluation of future climate
were expressed in the report by H. Flohn (West Germany) entitled "Pattern
- of Probable Future Climates Natural and Artificial." The report de-
scribes different warm and cold periods in the past, but in essence noth-
ing is said about which of these variants may come to pass in the future.
In addition, it is asserted that the use of examples of past climates for
evaluating future climatic conditions is limited due to changing boundary
conditions. H. Flohn, however, assumes that if a cooling does not set in,
caused by strong volcanic eruptions of recent years (after 1948), in the
coming century there is a great probability of a warming as a result of
the "greenhouse effect" of carbon dioxide and other gases.
Finally, the last of the group of reports describing man's influence on
climate and in one way or another giving an evaluation of future climate
was a report by J. Williams, W. Hafele and W. Sassin (International Insti-
tute of Applied Systems Analysis) entitled "Energy and Climate. A Review
With Emphasis on Global Effects." The authors examined three sources of
global influence on climate: ejection of heat into the atmosphere, change
in conditions at the earth's surface and change in the concentration of
atmospheric gases (especially carbon dioxide). It was concluded in the
report that the first two sources should not exert an influence on global
climate. In the opinion of the authors, an increase in the C02 concentra-
tion must be regarded as the principal influencing factor, although the know-
ledge of the carbon cycle and the climatic system as a whole is still in-
adequate for making definite recommendatians of an ecological nature, in
particular, recommendations on the'use of fossil fuel.
In summarizing the conclusions from the above-mentioried reports, devoted
to a general description of behavior of the climatic system and an evalu-
ation of the influence of man's activity on climate, it is possible to
note the following:
the authors assume that the level of knowledge of climate and climatic
models is inadequate for describing all the complex nonlinear interactions
within the climatic system;
there are different, sometimes diametrically opposite points of view
cc.acerning evaluation of the influence of anthropogenic factors on climatic
change;
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although it is recognized that an increase in the content of atmospheric
carbon dioxide can be potentially the most powerful source of anthropogenic
in�luence on climate, great caution must be exercised in determining whether
this influence is real, and especially in its quantitative evaluation.
The remaining reports presented at the conference related to the influence
of climate on mankind on different branches of the economy and the world
economy in general. Reports were also presented on the interrelationship
between climate and water resources, the influence of climate on agriculture
and forestry, land use and fishing, etc.
A joint report by J. Schaake (United States) and Z. Kaczmarek (Poland) was
entitled "Climatic Variability and Planning and Operation of Water Manage-
ment Systems." In examining the principal types of hydrological models
employed in evaluatiag and predicting river runoff, the authors noted a
shortage of climatic data, including data on river runoff, over a quite
long period. The report gave no evaluations of change in the geographic
regime in dependence on the change.in climatic conditions.
"Climate, Health and Disease," such was the theme of a report by W. Weikhe
(Switzerland). The report had the nature of a review and for the most part
contained a description of ways in which climate influences man's perfor-
mance, his nutritional requirements, habitat, incidence of disease, etc.
A large group of reports was devoted to the influence of climate on agri-
culture. M. S. Svaminatkhan (India), in a report entitled "Global Aspects
oi Food Production," examined the meteorological conditions as only one
of the factors exerting an influence on agricultural productivity, devot-
ing relatively little attention to this factor. To all intents and pur-
poses the author extrapolated existing climatic conditions for some period
for the purpose of an analysis of future possibilities of food production
and solution af social problems.
D. D. MacQueeg (United States), in a report entitled "Climatic Variability
and Agriculture in Regions of Temperate Climate," emphasized that the ex-
isting world system of agricultural production is extremely sensitive to
significant climatic anomalies and will remain so in the future, at least
with respect to year-to-year clima':ic variability. The author mentioned
the importance of disseminating the corresponding climatic information and
the know-how for using it.
The influence of climate on agricultural productivity was also examined in
the reports of H. Fukui (Japan), entitled "Var3ability of Climate and Agri-
culture in Moist Tropical Regions" and F. Mattei (Italy), entitled "Cli-
matic Variability and Agriculture in Semiarid Tropical Regions."
H. Fukui stiares the point of view that existing agricultural production is
extremely sensitive to climatic changea, especially to a change in the
~ quantity of precipitation. In the author's opinion, the dependence of
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agricultural production in the tropical regions on the annual quantity of
precipitation for the most part is governed by a high total evaporation
in the economic:ally most active parts of the moist tropics. Since agri-
cul.tural techniques in these regions are at z level far from the optimum,
and since the necessary expansion of agricultural production is ensured
and in the immediate future will be ensured here by an expansion of sown
areas, and not by an intensification of production, the sensitivity of agri-
culture to a change in the quantity of precipitation will remain as signif-
icant as it is now, or will even increase.
F. Mattei noted that the so-called semiarid regions are characterized by a
lower level of crop yields than the zones of temperate climate and agri-
culture in these regions, moreso than in others, is subject to the influ-
ence of climatic variability. Regarding the quantity of precipitation dur-
ing the summer rainy season as the principal characteristic of the year-to-
year variability of climate in these regions, the author gives some recom-
mendations (quite obvious) directed to an increase in the stability of
agricultural systems to the influence of climatic variability.
Thus, all three speakers, examining problems in the influence of climate
on agriculture in different climatic zones, assumed that at the present time
agricultural productivity is still to a high degree dependent on climatic
conditions and that this dependence can scarcely be reduced in the immediate
future.
A special subject in the series of reports devoted to the general problems
af the influence of climate on human activity was dealt with in a regort
by a group of Chinese scientists entitled "Study of Climatic Change and
Ciarification of Climatic Resources in China," having an informative char-
acter.
Another report, having a regional character, was a report by D. Burgos (Ar-
entina) entitled "Renewable Resources and Agriculture in Latin America in
Relation to Climatic Stability."
The problems of land use in relation to climatic stability-were examined
- in a report by D. Oguntoinbo (Nigeria) and R. Odingo (Kenya), to be sure,
only applicable to Africa (the report has the subtitle "African Perspec-
_ tives"). Citing data on the cyclicity of the quantity of falling precip-
itation, the authors noted that the increase in droughts in recent years
is associated to a high degree with human activity destructive for the
ecosystem: tie annihilatton of forests, burning of the savanna, increase
in pasture area, etc. The authors emphasized that in Africa the influence
of man on land productivity has reached a level comparable with the level
of the influence of natural climatic variations. Therefore, climatic fluc-
tuations have increased; huwever, there is no basis for assuming that
there is a long-range trend to the setting-in of a more arid climate.
In a report entitled "Climatic Variability and Forestry," A. Baumgartner
(West Germany) discussed both the influence of climatic changes on the
state of Forests and the influence of forests on the formation of climate
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rux urr1c1AL U5E UNLY
and the environment. The author assumes that with the existing level of
knawledge concerning the interrelationship between forests and climate
it is necessary to do everything possible in order to retain the existing
forest cover because the possible consequences of a decrease in the area
of forests are still not entirely clear and due to the ecological, econ-
omic and social role of the forest.
The problems involved in the influence of climatic changes on sea fishing
were examined j.n a report by D. Cashing (Great Britain). Related to this
report was an article by R. Welcome (Food and Agricultural Organization)
entitled "Influence of Climatic Changes on Fishing in Internal Waters."
The report demonstrated that although it is possible to assume the presence
of a relationship between the year-to-year variability of climate and the
change in the number of schools of fish in individual regions, this rela-
tionship has not yet been determined quantitatively. In exactly the same
way, the relationship between long-period (about 100 years) variations in
the number of fish and climatic fluctuations is not entirely clear.
T. Haskell (Great Britain) presented a report entitled "Climatic Variabil-
ity, Sea Resources and Exploitation of the Coastal Zone." The author noted
tha.t from the point of view of the exploitation of sea resources two as-
pects of a knowledge of climate are of importance: paleoclimatic informa-
tion necessary in the exploitation of petroleum reserves, manganese nod-
ules and other minerals, and data on present-day climate (with an evalua-
tion of future climate), necessary for the exploitation of deposits and
the transport of freight, including the production of petroleum. In the re-
porr special attention is devoted to the problems involved in the influence
of possible petroleum leakage on climate and the rather optimistic conclu-
sivn is drawn that with the existing volumes of petroleum entering the
ocean there is no danger oF an unfavorable influence of this factor on the
animal world and planetary climate. However, the author nevertheless could
not deny the existence of serious social and ecological consequences of
contamination of the ocean by petroleum.
The last two reports related to the general problems involved in the inter-
rel.ationship between climate and the world economy and the life of human
suciety. The first of these, entitled "Climate and Economic Activity"
(author R. D'Arcy, United States) was officially included in the conference
program in advance; the second, "Climate and Society: Lessons from Recent
Events" was presented directly before the beginning of the conference and
mu:t be regarded as an additional communication.
R. D'Arcy, taking note of the incomplete knowledge of processes of inter-
actions w:Lthin the climatic system and the magnitudes of the possible an-
thropogenic changes, concluded that at the present time there is no basis
for in any way exerting an influence on existing human activity for the
purposes of preserving climate. However, he asserted that even now it is
nFCessary to intensify scientific research for the purpose of evaluating
the possible influence of climatic changes and proposed that some agency
be created within the framework of the UN which woul_d be capable of
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defining those types of activity which potentially can cause climatic
changes and whj.ch could recommend measures for preventing unfavorable con-
sequences. The author had the developing countries primarily in mind.
As examples of the economic evaluations related to climatic changes, R.
- D'Arcy cited sample values of the additional expenditures (advantages)
caused by a decrease in the mean global temperature by 1�C or its in-
crease by 0.5�C (with and without a change in the quantity of precipita-
tion), and also an analysis of the type "expenditures-income" in connection
with possible stratospheric contamination as a result of the flights of
supersonic aircraft, escape of halocarbons and use of nitrogen fertilizers.
Also touched upon was the economic aspect of a possible warming associated
with an increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content. However, the
author constantly emphasized that all the mentioned evaluations are strict-
ly preliminary. In addition, these evaluations were made assuming the ex-
istence of the current economic and political structure. Therefore, the
author considers them applicable only in the case of not excessively great
deviations of climate from the existing state because significant deviations
would so greatly alter the existing structure of the economy that it would
be impossible to evaluate, even approximately, possible quantitative and
qualitative changes.
The report led to a lively discussion, during which it was noted, in par-
ticular, that the dependence of expenditures or benefits on climate is not
the same for different economic and social systems.
An additional communication by R. Cates, entitled "Climate and Society: Les-
sons from Recent Events.," was based on the approach to frequently repeating
dangerous weather phenomena as to climatic phenomena. The author cited
evaluations of the losses inflicted on different countries by dangerous
weather phenom.ena (floods, tropical cyclones, tornados, etc.) and called
for drawing up of a plan of action based on already available information
concerning the state of the climate. However, in essence, the author could
not make constructive proposals as to what such a plan should include. The
report repeatedly mentioned the fact that in "rich" (the author's termin-
ology) countries the consequences of dangerous weather phenomena can be de-
_ creased and the losses of human life can be reduced to a minimum, but the
author has not demonstrated (and indeed could not demonstrate) how the
"poor" countries could achieve the same results.
' In the discussion of the communication by R. Cates it was noted that the
author is scarcely thoroughly familiar with the theories of development
of human society, especially with the Marxist theory. It was also noted
that in the absence of a truly social approach to study of the interre-
lationship between climate and human society any considerations of this
problem will have a superficial character; in general, only a society ac-
tually having interests and goals which are common for all its members,
is capable of correctly evaluating the developing situation and formulating
specific programs of action.
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16 OCTt18fR 1979 Md. 1, JUIY 1979
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The last sessiun of the first week of the conference was devoted to a gen- -
eral discussion and also to organization of work for the second week. -
The following working groups were formed: ~
� I Climatic Data and Use of Climatic Knowledge.
- II Influence of Society on Climatic Change and Variation. -
III Influence of Climatic Changes and Variations on Society.
IV Investigation of Climatic Changes and Variations. '
The task of the working groups included the preparation of documents sum-
maLizing ttie existing state of matters and the formulation of recommenda-
tions which could be taken into account in planning the World Climate Pro-
gram.
The document of the first working group, relating to climatie data, includ- ~
ed recommendations concerning the collection, on a global basis, of ineteor-
ological, aerological, oceanographic and hydrological data, da*_a on atmo-
spheric chemistry and data on stratospheric dust and geomorphology. The
remaining types of data were put into the section "Need of Data for Inves-
tigating the Effects of Climate on Human Activity" and it was indicated -
that they must be stored in national archives and used at the national
1eve1. In addition, in the document special emphasis is placed on the need
for r_reating a network of climatic observations for the oceans. In the docu-
ment of this same working group, describing the application of climatic 4
knowledge, the following types of international activity were included -
(in order of priority).
It was decided to put in first place such an j.mportant matter, having gen- .
- eral importance, as the development of a data base; second a program
for training personnel; third the dissemination of inethodology to the
developing countries; fourth cooperation in the use of climatic know- -
ledge. The informatioz used for ensuring climatic applications must be
collected, prinarily, at the national level and only some international
projects require global data.
The second working group, in its report, noted thF different types of human
act.tvity capable oF exerting an influence on climate. The group did not
deem it possible to give quantitative evaluations of climatic changes as
a result of various factors, but indic3ted the need for an internationaZ
coordinated research program for the purpose of obtaining such an evalu-
ation.
_ An important matter considered b,y the third working group was the matter
of a plnn of actions ior study of climatic effects on society. The group
could not arrive at a unanimous opinion concerning this plan. A majority
of those present at tne plenary session agreed with this and recommended
that a group of experts of an interdisciplinary character, with the coop-
eration of interested international governmental and nongovernmental or-
ganizations, prepare a more detailed plan of actions and a scientific
program.
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The fourth working group examined priorities in the field of scientific
research. The group decided that one of the most important research prob-
lems is a study of tne problems involved in interaction between the ocean
and the atmosphere. The problem of the influence of an increase in C02 on -
(~limatic change was not included by the group as the dominant problem, but
together with the influence of an increase in ozone and chlorine campounds. _
_ The climate research program also included sections on solar-terrestrial
re]_ationships and paleoclimate.
- During che se-iond week work was continued on the basic document of the con-
ference its Declaration. Tne final text of the declaration was adopted
at the final session of the conference, [See this number of the journal.]
In connection with everything which has been said it must be noted that the _
World Climate Conference was a highly important event in international sci-
entif ic life.
~
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UDC 551.(5:465.7)
EVALUATING THE PARAMETERS OF DISCRETE MODELS OF DYNAMICS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND OCEAN
- Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 77-90
[Article by Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences V. V. Penenlco, Com-
putation Center Siberian Department USSR Academy of Sciences, submitted for
publication 21 September 1978]
_ Abstract: The article describes a method for eval-
uating the state and parameters of discrete models
of dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean on the
basis of ineasurement data. The basis for the method
is the ideas of the theory of optimization and iden-
tification of complex systems. The base elements of
: the computation algorithm are the procedure of comput-
� ation of the gradients of the functionals in parameter
space and state space and expressions relating the
changes in the parameters and the criterion of model
quality. The author discusses the practical applica-
;:ions of the propased method.
[Text] Tiathematical models of dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean, describ-
ing the behavior of real physical systems, contain a number of parameters
whose values are known extremely approximately or are completely unknown.
By "parameters" is meant the caefficients of the differential equations,
the field of initial values, the characteristics of the integration re- .
gions, etc. In solving specific problems the values of these parameters
are stipulated approximately from some region of admissible values. In a
general case some parameters, such as the turbulence coefficients, the
coefficients determining interaction between the atmosphere and underly- ,
- ing surface, and others, are functions dependent on space coordinates,
time and on the sought-for values describing the state of the system. Thus,
the mathematical model can be unclosed, and for its closing it is necessary
to obtain additional information or ma.ke additional assumptions cietermining
the feedback between the state of the system and the parameters. In this connection the problem arises of evaluating the state of the systam and
the parameters of the models on the basis of a priori information and meas-
urement data. -
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The article d2scribes a method for evaluating the state and parameters of
discrete models of dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere using a stipulated
criterion. If data are available from measurements of system state, the
method opexates in a diagnostic regime, that is, there is an evaluation -
of the parameters and assimilation of the measured information. Otherwiae
there is an adjustment of the pa.rameters using some criterion characteriz-
ing the quality of the model. The basis of the methodis the ideas of op- timization, identification and modeling of complex systems [4, 6, 11, 12],
regularization and optimum filtering [1, 11]. Some aspects of this method
applicable to the considered class of problems are set forth in [7-10].
We will assume that the structure of the mathematical model is stipulated
and is determined by a system of nonlinear diffPrential equations in par-
tial derivatives expressing the principal laws of hydrothermodynamics of
the modeled processes. For convenience in exposition we will write the ~
model in operator form
B de LY) _ 0, v E Q(Dr), Y E R(Dti, (1)
where ~ is the vector of state of the system, Y is the vector of model
parameters, B is_a diagonal matrix, in the case of stationary models a
zerc, matrix, L(cy , Y) is a nonlinear matrix operator, dependent on the
vactor of state and the vector of parameters, Dt =[D x[0, t]3 is the
region of change of space coordinates and time, Q(Dt) is the space of
functions satisfying the boundary and initial conditions, to which the
solution of the problem belongs, R(Dt) is the set of admissible values
of the input parameters of the models.
The mathema.tical modeling process includes several stages: investigation
of the solubility of the problem (1), forming of discrete analogues and
formulation of a computation algorithm, investigation of behavior of the
model in the region {(x, t) E Dt, ?C R(Dt)} and its sensitivity to vari-
ations of the input parameters and external effects, and identification _
of the parameters on the basis of ineasurement data. The computation algo-
rithm for solution of the problem (1) actually real{.zes the transformation
~
(x, t, Y), (x, t) E Dr, Y E R(Dt), (2)
determining the vector of state of tae model as a function of the inde-
pendent variables and input parameters.
~ The quality criterion for the model and the methods for realizing it can
be some functional charactPrizing the model as a whole or the measure of
y deviations between the measured and computed values of the vector of state
components. We will denote this functional by cp m), where ~5 is the
- vector of state, computed using the model, cp m are the values of the vector
of state outained as a result of ineasurements in a real system. The com-
ponents of the vector 0'm are determined in the discrete set of points
Dt < Dt. In actual practice it is customary to use several criteria for
~ evaluating model quality.
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_ The process of forming discrete analogues and computation algorithms is
considerably simplified if instead of a problem in a differential formul-
ation (1) we examine its variation formulation in the form of an integral
identity following from determination of the generalized solution, that
is
J Y. 0, (3)
where 5p* CQ*(Dt) is some arbitrary sufficiently smooth vector-function
of the same structure as I? . The functional on the left-hand side of (3)
is selected in such a way that with a special stipulation of tP * from (3)
directly without additional operations of differentiation and integration
by parts we obtain an equation for the total energy of the system. The
discretization of model (1) involves forming of the discrete analogue (3)
1'' Y, 0,
(4)
and in the writing of the conditions for the staL-ionary state of the summing
fujictional Ih(-Y , Y, with arbitrary and independent variations of
the function ~p thati is d -
1h
6, - (5) .
y d '
The system (5) is a discrete analogue of the problem (1). In a3dition to
the system of fundamental equations (5) we will write a system of conjug-
ate equations in discrete form, which is obtained from the conditions
d
Y, T~) = 0. (6)
a4
In an example we will clarify the sense of the introduced definitions. We
will examine a nonadiabatic model of atmospheric hydrothermodynamics in
isebaric coordinates on a spherical earth [3]
dt -f- cta8 tlv lv a sin b d - 1'" _0, (7) 144
dv ctg 3 u~ _`u + 1 dH _ Fv = 0,
dt a a d 9
(8)
dT _(7o g~) RT ,r - Fr - p= 0, (9)
dt
-
_ ~N + ~T = 0, 1 (10)
1 du + d(v sin 8) a: O
asin8 (d~ d8 ) op - '
where
�d v__ u rad a= u d~ v a~
vr - a g a ~ a sin s ar + a a a+
-+4 z da p y(lP = u, v, T),
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t is time, 4f is longitude, -8 is complement to latitude, p is pressure
(p1 ~ p< pa, pT is pressure at the upper, and pa is pressure at the lower
boundaries of the air m3ss), a is the earth's radius, T _(u, v, t) is the
velocity vector, u, v, -G are the components of the velocity vector in the
direction 4f, , p respectively, T and H are the deviations of tempera-
- ture and geopotential from their standard values T and H, ya is the adia-
batic temperature gradient, Y=- a T/a z is the standard temperature
gradient, E is the heat influx to a unit volume, cp is the specific heat
capacity at constant pressure, R is the universal gas constant, I is the
Coriolis parameter, g is the acceleration of free falling, F a( aC = u, v, T)
are expressions describing turbulent exchange processes.
We will represent Fa (oc = u, v, T) in the form of the sum of two terms:
P Fa -F" P;, (12)
where the subscripts V and s denote terms describing turbulent processes in
the vertical and horizontal directions. '
We will determine Fa in the following way:
F,= a~ (13)
a - , il, v, r), vu = _ YT =
a ov op Z a R f 1
/
- *. 2, then
T (z, t) =az+b+ce-k'xl sink(Ho-z). (6)
This expression obviously satisfies equation (2). Substituting (6) into
the boundary conditions, we obtain two equations for determining the un-
known constants:
aHo-}-b = T F,
(7)
a- kce k2 7 t cos,kHo =-Q`
t . (8)
The third lacking equation is derived from the initial condition
TI:_o= Ts~:
b-}-cslnkHo=T,o� (9)
It necessarily follows from equation (8) that
- k - 2 Ho , (10)
i-
ll=- Qn
In this case from (7) we have
~
. b = TF +~Qo H,, ~ (12)
and from (9) (
_ r fQoHo (13)
~=Tso p-,- I
Thus, the sought-for surface temperature oP~ ice is expressed as follows:
T- -4- Oo Nole k'~ y t (14)
(T, Qo~- (TsoTF+: ll The evolution of ice thickness is describediby the following Cauchy problem:
dH 1 R dT (15)
Qt - L p ( + dz I Z=H
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Hi r_o=Ho,
(lb)
Wtlftre B is the heat flow from the water to the ice.
Equation (15) is the heat balance equation at the moving ice-water diacon-
tinuity. Substituting
i It=H=-cke k'Xt_ Qo (17)
0
into (15) and integrating from C to t, we obtain
H_ No + Bo L Qo t- k X L P(1 - e ks X t). (lg )
In the integration here we made the same assuwpLions wtth respect to B as
were made with respect to H and Q.
A specific characteristic of the ice melting regime is that with the assump-
tions made we have two moving discontinuities: ice-water discontinuity
, (moves with the velocity dHl/dt) and ice-air discontinuity (moves with the
velocity dH2/dt). In this case at the upper boundary we set the condition
~ T (Ka, t) = T.H , (19)
and at the lower boundary we leave the condition (3).
The heat balance conditions at the upper and lower boundaries are wrftten
as follows: dK, _x 0 dT
dr - L p( a + a I r=H~ ~Zp~
dHj _ L B dT
dt - L p(_4 + dz Iz=HJ (21)
If, as before, we denote the ice thickness by H, that is
H=H1-Hz,
(22)
then the conditions (20) and (21) can be written together:
dH a dT I-Ifl).
dt - Lp (B-0 A + az s_Ns (23) With respect to the functions Q, B, H1 and H2 we will make assumptions
similar to those adopted above.
We will seek a solution in the form
T(z, t) = az + b-}- ce- k2 y t stn k(H,o - x). (24)
Substituting (24) into the boundary conditions (3) and (19), we obtain:
aHjo -f- b = TF, (25)
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aH20 -f- b-}- ce- k2 x t sln kHa = TM.
- (26)
For-satisfaction of equation (26) it is necessary that
_ k (27)
Solving the system (25), (26), with (27) taken tnto account, we find
Ho $ Ho -
a-- TM TF b- H10TM-HaoTp (28)
Differentiating (24) for t and substituting the derivative with known a,
b and k into (23), we obtain the equation for evolution of H:
~N = P'i Bo ~Q~, - 2 cke k2 y t~. (29)
\
_ The unknown coefficient c can be found if dH I
dt I t_o- ~
is stipulated. Then
- C -`ikx (Qo-Bo-L PH:o)� (30)
The result of integration of (29) with time will be
'
t
H=Ho ' ( Qo-ao t 2c rl - e -klx (31)
Lp kx ~l.
\ \ 1
The developed local model can be generalized for two important cases. We
will generalize the model for the case of falling of snow. The origin of
coordinates is placed at the ice-snow discontinuity. We will assume that
snow with the thickness YI has constant thermophysical parameters. We
will also assume that YI changes little in the neighborhood t= 0And is
_ equal to Yjp =YJIt=O� The processes in the snow-ice system will be de-
scribed by the nonstationary equation (2), but now
xi, z E [0, H] (32)
l Xen, Z C[- 71, 0) '
(subscripts: i- ice, sn snow). We will use TS to denote the tempera-
ture of the snow surface. At the ice-snow boundary there must be-satisfac-
tion of the conjugation equations
T, (01 t),- Tsn (01 t)': (33)
dT, I` dT~nL=0'
i.~ ds _p- ~S" dz (3
4)
Here it is also possible to discriminate two regimes: growth of ice and
melting of ice and snow. Changes in the thickness-of the snow cover vj(t),
like of the derivative d~ /dt, being the external parameters of the problem,
in the case of an increase in Z must be stipulated. In the case of inelting
the situation is different and a formula for computing 'J(t) can be derived
from the heat balance condition at the snow-air discontinuity. As before,
we will examine both regimes separately.
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a) In a growth regime we will substitute not only (33) and (34), but also
the fallowing houndary conditions:
dT lg= Qo
 35
)
TI s_Ho = TF (36)
The solution is sought in the form
Tsn (x, f) _asn z~' ban Cso E-X~n Xtn tSill ILsn (z t' dsn), Z Hcr we assume that movement as
a result of large-scale advection is absent. We will also assume thaC
horizontal mixing occurs as a result of turbulent diffusion, which
has the same intensity as the turbulent diffusion of density. We will de-
note the horizontal velocity vector by V=(u, v), Kh is the coefficient
- of horizontal turbulent exchange, 5 H/ b t is the local change in ice thick--
- ness; then
dtll =-v(',VN)+K,~AH+aat, (67)
where
~1, H HP. (68)
The same for the case of ice with snow is written in the form
d(H+y1= uV(H + Y)) T ' t1(/~~-~1-~- ''(N+r)
at -o ~I 'IKh at . . (69)
In formulas (67), (69) Q is the Laplace operator on a sphere; the first
term on the right-hand side describes the change in ice thickness (ice
with snow) caused by horizontal advection, and the second describes the
change as a result of horizontal diffusion.
The author expresses appreciation to D. V. Chalikov for direction of the
work and to B. A. Kagan for a number of valuable discussions.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Manab e, S., Bryan, K., KLIMAT I TSIRKULYATSIYA OKEANA (Climate and
Circulation of the Ocean), translated from English, Leningrad, Gidro-
meteoizdat, 1972.
_ 2. FIZIKA OKEANA (Ocean Physics), Vo1_ 1, Moscow, Nauka, 1978.
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UDC 551.482.32
SOME PATTERNS OF INTERNAL CURRENTS OF LINEAR WATER FLOWS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 98-104
[Articl.e by Candidate of Technical Sciences V. D. Ivanov, Irkutsk Scientific
Resea-rch Institute of Pracious and Nonferrous Metals, submitted for publica-
tion 30 October 19781
Abstract: The article sets forth the results of
generalization of preceding investigations and
the author's experiments for ascertaining the
patterns of internal currents in a linear water
flow. The author has determined the dependence
' of the parameters of internal currents on the
Froude and Reynolds numbers. It is demonstrated
that there is a"3ivision" of internal currents
with an increase in Reynolds numbers and a decrease
in their size with an increase in the Froude num-
ber. A classification of internal currents is
proposed.
[Text] It is known that in linear water flows there is formation of helical
internal currents [3-5]. An analysis of data in the literature shows that
for the time being there is still no clear classification of a wide range
of, observed internal currents. This is holding back the drawing of the most
important conclusions from work already done and is slowing down further
study of this probl.em. The four types of intertial currents given by Losiyev-
skiy are without question of interest, but tb%ay can make no p::etense to a
- general approach in the study of internal currents. Therefore, it is no
accident that their author drew only partial conclusions. L. D. Kozyrenko
[3] examines the structure of internal currents, taking into account the
Reynolds number and the ratio of trough width to the depth of flow. Where-
as the first criterion characterizes the water flow regime, the second is
not universal to the same degree.
The structure of internal currents must be considered more correctly from
the point of view of the Reynolds and Froude numbers, as this is done in
an evaluation of a water flow as a whole [6]. This also makes it possible
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to take into account both the regime and state (kinetic properties) of the
flow. The results of the preceding investigations and those made by the
author of this article were examined in accordance with Table 1.
Table 1
Classification of Internal Currents
KEY:
2 Pe)xNM
CocroxHxe 1 naMKxap- 1 nepexou II nepe- Typ6y-
HWif NWfi XOAH61~1 .'![HTHhIA
3 4 5 6
7 CnwcoK}oe, Fr 1).
When the water flow regime is transient II, with Froude numbers relatively
close to critical (beginning with Fr = 0.12), it becomes more difficult to
evaluate the a/b ratio. Qnly one thing is clear, that with a constancy of
the value of the Fraude number and a change in the Reynolds number the val-
ue 2a = const (demonstrated by the author's experiments, Table 2). In this
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case the 2b value is unknown. We will assume that the ratio a/b here is the
same as in transient regime r; then it is found that 2b x H/2 and an internal
current is observed only in the lower half of the water flow. This is im-
_ probable, in more likelihood internal currents occupy the entire cross sec-
tion of the water flow [3-5]. Then 2b = H and each internal current has a/b
N 0.5 and the greater axis of the ellipse is directed from the bottom to the
suriace of the flow. In this case doubt naturally arises as to the stability
of such internal currents when there is a great velocity gradient with depth.
Therefore, such internal currents must be divided with retention of the 2a
value.
What will be the configuration of the cross sections of internal currents in
this case? An elliptical form is characteristic (not taking into account
water flcws with small Froude numbers, Fr < 0.12) for laminar flows with any
state. With an increase in the Reynolds numbers (transient regime I) internal
currents in form approach a circle. Therefore, it is most probable that this
form is also retained for transient regime II. Then with Re N 1800 (Table 2)
the water flows must move in two layers of internal currents. The very same
thing applies to water flows with transient regime II, critical and turbulent
states.
Table 4
Evaluation of Kinetic Energy of Internal Currents of Water Flow in Trough With
a Width of 85 mm and a Length of 2,400 mm
Yron saxno-
H
y
~
Q
b
xa weno6a
c.x
c.u/cex I
cM �
cA
'abV'
3 Pacxo,q solixoro rtoTOKa 220 cM,/cerc
0010'
145
I 1,5 17,5 1,05
0,6 I 43,6 I 0
35
I
0,75
0
30
230
I 200
540
'
0,4 65,2 0,30
'
0,20
250
4 PacxoA eoRxoro noTOKa 400 cM3/ceic
0
10
145
' 2,8 16,7 1,4
10 46 0 050
I
I
I
I
1,4
05
0
I
500
530
5 40
0,6
78,6
0,30
0,30
550
KEY:
Angle of trough slope
2. cm/sec
3. Discharge of water flow 220 cm3/sec
4. Discharge of water flow 400 cm3/sec
The most numerous flows in nature and engineering are turbulent flows. With
Fr = 0.01-0.013 and Re =(1-3)�106, according to the experimental data of
Ye. M. Minskiy, the a/b ratio varies in the range 22-40. With values Fr =
0.003-0.03 and Re = 3600-4I60 (Losiyevskiy experiments) and with Fr > 1 and
Re ;z.--7500 (Table 2) the a/b ratio is equal approaima.tely to unity. Here we
encounter multilayer movement of internal currents. With stipulated
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parameters of the watEr flow (Table 2), regardless of its state, the num-
ber of layers of internal currents will be about f ive. One of the para-
meters of the cross section of internal currents 2a can be computed using
the formula
2 a = 0,31
3
Fr
The 2a value is determined only by the Fr number and is not dependent on
the Re number.
It is also not without interest to take a small excursion in the direction
of some explanation of the fact of division of internal currents with use
of their kinetic energy, which can be computed using the formula
s
Ekin - ml ~
where m is the mass of an internal current with a length of 1 cm (Tt ab p),
P is water density.
If the constant parameters are not taken into account, then Ekin = abV2. The
results of experiments (Table 4) show that the abV2 value is retained de-
spite the fact that there is a change in the size of the internal currents
and the velocity of their movement. In other words, with a constant water
discharge and different angles of trough slope the kinetic energy of the
internal currents (bodies of revolution) is constant.
Thus, a decrease in the size of the bodies of revolution with an increase
in the angle of trough slope (or the Froude number) can be attributed ta
the tendency of a water flow to expend a minimum ensrgy on movement.
In general, it seems to the author that al?. cases of internal currents fit
into Table 1 and the proposed classification of internal currents is con-
firmed. Each value of the Froude number corresponds to its family of water
flows with definite parameters of internal currents characteristic only of
them. Therefore, the internal currents corresponding to each box (Table 1)
comprise a great range of such currents. The facts of their division with
an increase in Reynolds numbers and explanation of the nature of their div-
ision on the basis of a minimum expenditure of energy on movement and a
decrease in size with an increase in the Froude number are very interesting
and important regularities of the internal structure of water flows. The
results of this investigation, taking into account the studies made earl-
ier by the author [1, 2], have theoretical and practical importance. They
can be used in explaining many phenomena in nature and engineering and
will accelerate the subsequent study of these interesting phenomena.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Ivanov, V. D., et al., "Influence of the Kinetic Properties of a Water
Flow on the Structure of its Internal Currents," METEOROLOGIYA.I GIDRO-
LOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 2, 1976.
2. Ivanov, V. D., Yastrebov, K. L., "Investigation of the Structure of Inter-
nal Currents of Water Flows in Helical Apparatus," IZVESTIYA VUZov,
TSVETNAYA METALLURGIYA (News of Higher Educational Institutions, Nonferrous
Metallurgy), No 2, 1976.
3. Kozyrenko, L. D., "Secondary Currents and Transport Capacity of Flows,"
Author's Summary of Dissertation for Award of the Academic Degree of Can-
di.date of Technical Sciences, Moscow, 1967.
4. Losiyevskiy, A. I., "Laboratory Investigation of Processes of Sandbar For-
matior.," TRUDY TsNIVT (Central Water Transportation Scientific Institute),
No 86, 1934.
5. Minskiy, Ye. M., TURBULENTNO5T' RUSLOVOGO POTOKA (Turbulence of Channel
Fl.ow), Gidrometeoizdat, 1952.
6. Chou, G. T., GIDRAVLIKA OTKRYTYKH KANALOV (Hydraulics of Open Channels),
Moscow, Izdatel'stvo Literatury po Stroitel`stvu, 1969.
125
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UDC 551.57:631.175:635.2(474.2)
AGROCLIMATIC EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL AND ACTUALLY POSSIBLE POTATO YIELD
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 105-110
[Article by Doctor of Biological Sciences Kh. Tooming and P. Kh. Kyyva, Es-
tonian Agrometeorological Laboratory and All-Union Scientific Research In-
stitute of Agricultural Meteorology, submitted for publication 29 June
1978]
Abstract: The article describes a method for
computing potential yield, taking into account
the total receipt of photosynthetically active
radiation and its probability on the basis
. of experimental data for the period 1975-1977
the authors analyze the factors determining
the actually possible yield of potatoes under
sprinkling conditions and with a natural pre-
cipitation regime. The actually possible yield
and its probability in the Estonian SSR were
computed for two varieties of potatoes.
[Abstract] Among the-environmental factors for plants a special role is play-
ed by the sums of total radiation and photosynthetically active radiation
(PAR). The�APY sum is the.energy reserve whose receipt determines the max-
imum possible level of photosynthesis and the potential yield (PY), that is,
the yield possible under ideal weather conditions. Other factors soil
and air temperature, precipitation, moisture reserves in the soil, etc. can
be considered background parameters in the yield formation process. Baclc-
ground factors are rarely ideal. The degree of assimilation of solar radia-
tion by plants in the production process and in the last analysis the ac-
tually possible yield (APY) are dependent on favorable background factors
[10, 11]. .
The correlation between productivity and potato yield and background meteor-
ological factors has been thoroughly investigated [1, 3, 7, 8, 13, 15, 16,
18]. Lesser attention has been devoted to study of the correlation between
PY and APY of agricultural crops with the receipt of solar radiation in
interrelationship with the water regime [2, 4, 10-12, 14]. Therefore, the
objective of this article includes:
126
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evaluate the Py and its probability for two varieties of potatoes in
the Estonian SSR;
quantitatively clarify the dependence of APY on the receipts of total
radiation and evaporation sums;
quantitatively characterize the interrelationships between the sums of
total radiation and precipitation in the Estonian SSR;
evaluate the APY of potato and its probability under both irrigation
conditions and with. a natural regime of precipitation on soddy-calcareous
soils with a high agricultural hackground in the Estonian SSR.
The PY can be determined approximately using the formula
C
Y. 0 yln q kzo3,
(1)
[ 1'l,= pot; X 03 = econ] where YPot is the PY (potential yield) in centners/
hectare; Y7ot is the efficiency of the crop or variety under ideal meteoro-
logicll con~itions the so-called potential efficiency of the sowing,
Z Q is the total receipts of PAR (photosynthetically active radiation), in
Cal/cm2, kecon is the coef.ficient of economic efficiency of the yield, q is
the calorie content of the yield in Cal/g.
In order to determine the probability of PY it is necessary to know the prob-
ability of the sums.of total radiation and PAR in dependence on the duration
of the growing season for the variety. The probability of total radiation
at the Tartu (Tyravere) actinometric station was.determined using data from
a 25-year observation series. The data for this station characterize well
the mean radiation regime for the territory of the Estonian SSR. The beginn-
ing and end of the growing season can differ in individual years. Therefore,
the radiation sums used by the Sulev variety in individual years in the Es-
tonian SSR during the period from sprouting to the dying-out of the tops
can vary in a great range from 30 to 50 Cal/cm2; the corresponding limits ,
for the Belorusskiy ranniy variety are from 27 to 46 Cal/cm~. The mean sums
of total radiation, encountered with about a 50% probability, in dependence
on the duration of the growing season, vary for the Sulev variety from 34
to 44 Cal/cm2, for Belorusskiy ranniy from 30 to 42 Cal/cm2. In computing
PY it must be remembered that the PAR sum is about 50% of the total radiation.
In order to determine the potential efficiency of a potato sowing, the auth-
ors, in collaboration with the Estonian Scientific Research Institute of Ag-
riculture and Melioration, during the period 1975-1977 carried out special
experiments with sprinkling [12]. A high agricultural background was created
in experimental sectors. It was intended for obtaining a yield of tubers of
about 500 centners/hectare. The quantity of applied fertilizers in this case
was N120P185K190 + 60 tons of manure. These experiments demonstrated that the
potential efficiency of the Sulev variety in the PAR region is about 4% and
for the Belorusskiy ranniy variety is about 3%.
The coefficient of economic affeetivaness of the yield on the average is
kecon - 0.8 and the calorie content is q= 4.1 Cal/g [12]. With such in-
itial data we carried out computations of PY and its probability. The
128
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rux urrttotAL uar. utvLx
z-
determined PY values (Table 1) can also be used for detexwining the PY of
other existing varieties if their potential efficiency, beginning and end
of the growing season are known. For this purpose the data from Table 1
are multiplied by a factor which is determined as a ratio of the poten-
tial efficiency of the variety in percent to 4 in the case of mid-season
maturing varieties and to 3 in the case of early varieties. With a prob-
ability of 50% the PY values are close to the mean long-term values. For
the Sulev variety, in dependence on the duration of the growing season,
they are 133-170 centners/hectare of dry biomass of tubers, which is about
585-75Q centners/hectare of wet biomass with a mean content of dry matter
22.6%. The mean long-term PY of the variety Belorusskiy ranniy is lower it var-
ies in the range 90-120 centners/hectare of dry and about 510-690 centners/
hectare of wet biomass of tubers with a mean content of dry matter 17.6%.
The extent to which a moisture deficit limits an APY close to the PY is re-
vealed in an examination of the dependence of the APY on the evaporation
sums (Fig. la), constructed on the basis of data from our experiments for
1975-1977. This correlation is close (r = 0.94, p= 0.99) and to a value
E E= 270 mm is linear. It is virtually identical for the varieties Sulev
and Belorus.skiy ranniy both when sprinkled and without sprinkling. With high-
er E E values the deFendence becomes nonlinear. With Yj E= 350 mm (Fig.
la) the APY is about 600 centners/hectare. The goad correlation between
tihe APY and the evaporation sums is attributable to the following circum-
stances:
1) The principal component of evaporation is its transpiration. Its _ n-
sity i.s high when the stoma of the leaf is open. Open stomata in turn cre--
ate good conditions for the diffusion of C02 into the leaf and for inten-
sive photosynthesj.s.
2) The evaporation sums are determined by the action of a complex of factors,
such as the sums of radiation, temperature and soil moisture, dew-point
spread, etc., which are in potential correlation with the intensity of
photosynthesis and with the growth of plants. The correlation between the
potato yield and evaporation sums has a universal c.haracter: the same slope
of the straight line was obtained fur different varieties in Holland [17].
A correlation between the yield and the evaporation sums was also discover-
ed For grain crops j191. The correlation of yield with the moistening co-
efricient, which was close for perennial grasses [11], was less significant
for potato.
The receipts of total radiation and PAR are used to the greatest degree
under irrigation conditions. APY increases linearly with an increase in
the sums of total radiation (Fig. lb). With radiation sums of about SO Cal/
cm2 APY is. about 600 centners/hectare. The dependence of APY on the radia--
tlon s ums. is. close (r = 0.96; p= 0.99). Accordingly, under conditions of
an adequate water supply the limiting factor in the potato yield is
129
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the sums of total radiation and PAR. In the Estonian SSR.such a situation
is encountered in 20% of all years.
yM.yIta 1
soo Q)
0
san 1oo
- o '
400
J00 "
SO
. ?00 ~
100
61
0 200 FEMM 0 20 ZO KrranlcM1
Fig. :L. Dependence of APy of potato of two varieties. a) on evaporation
sums during the period from sprouting to dying-out of the tops; b) on
the siims of total radiation during this same period. The dots are for the
Sulev variety; the small crosses are for the Belorusskiy ranniy variety.
along the y-axis: at left wet hiomass, at right dry biomass in cen-
tners/hectare. The mean scaling factor for the dry biomass of the tubers
is 0.20.
KEY:
APY/ centners /hectare
2. Cal/cm2
By using the dependence of APY on tha total radiation sums (Fig. lb) and
the probability values for the total radiation sums (Table 1) we determined
the probability of APY under sprinkling conditions (Table 1). It appears
that the mean long-term APY (probability about 50%) of the Sulev variety
falls in the range from 405 to 525 centners/hectare; for the variety Belo-
russkiy ranniy from 360 to 490 centners/hectare. The maximum radiation
receipts also ensure maximum APY values.
In mos,t cases the potential of high receipts of total radiation and PAR is
not realized. In years with a great receipt of total radiation and PAR the
precipitation sums are small (Fig. 2). The correlation of the mean republic
precipitation sums and the total radiation sums for the June-September per-
iod is negative (r = 0.65; p= 0.99). For the Tartu region we also construct-
ed the dependence of the evaporation sums on the basis of the data in [5]
on the tot41 radiation simms. It differs little from the correlation of the
mean republic precipitation stms and the radiation sums (Fig. 2, circles).
This is natural, since the initial and final moisture reserves in the soil
are approximately equal and the precipitation sums for the period June-
September are virtually equal to the evaporation sums during this period.
Radiation and water are energetically in equilibrium if the evaporation sum
during the growing season, in combination with the total radiation sum,
130
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falls wiChin the :limits of direct evaporability (Fig. 2a). In such a case
the radiation sum and the quantity of evaporated water are harmoniously
combined in the y:Celd formation. Such a situation is not always realized
in Estonia. Water is adequate and even in excess in 42% of all the consid-
ered years. In 58% of the consiaered y~.~,rs the moisture deficit is up to
200 mm. As an exception, in all cases when the sum of total radiation dur-
ing the June-September period is greater than 44 Cal/cm2, the APY is limit-
e d tay an inadequacy of water (Fig. 2). Using the dependence of the evapora-
tion siuns on radtation sums and the dependence of APY on the evaporation
sums. (Fig. la) it is passible to find the APY of potatoes in individual
years, the APY probahility (Fig. 3) and the yields which are not received
= due to a moisture deficit. It appears that in the }*ears 1955, 1959, 1963,
1969, 1975, when the total radiation sums for the June-September period ex-
ceeded 48 Cal/cm2, the undercollection of yield due to a moisture deficit
was from 175 to 340 centners/hectare. On the average, the undercollectiou
of yield or the possible yield increment as a result of irrigation is about
120 centners/hectare. The moisture deficit and yield undercollection values
are approximately of the same order of magnitude according to data from
Strunnikov j9] for the Northwestern USSR.
7
I�' Mx
900 r
o
u Z. � _ a
?00 " ~ � � . �
. ~ � o
� ~
D1 L � . Cal/cm2
3S 16 i
� 45 FQ IrWlcM=
Fig. 2. Correlation of the mean precipitation sums for the Estonian SSR and
the tatal radiation suns (dots) for the period June-September (inclusive),
correlation of evaporation sums and total radiation sums (circles) for this
same period in the Tartu region (a) and the dependence of evaporation sums
for a potato crop on the total radiation sums (b) under conditions of ade-
quate water supply (experimental data).
In the case of irrigation the APY increases proportionally to the radiation
receipts. In the case of a natural precipitation regime the situation is
more complex 1ow APY values (Fig. 3) are encountered in years with a
high receipt of total radiation and a small quantity of precipitation. How-
ever, high APY values are noted in years with an adequate water supply,' but
_ small radiation receipts. The difference in the maximum APY values with ir-
rigation and with a natural precipitation regime (Fig. 3) is caused by an
inadequacy of radiation in years adequately supplied with precipitation.
131
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Fig. 3. Probability of different potato yields (centners/hectare) of the
Sulev variety; period from sprouting to dying-out of the tops 11 June-
20 September. 1) PY, 2) APY with irrigation, 3) APY w:Lth natural precipita-
tion regime.
It is important to note that as a result of irrigation here, to the highest
degree there is an increase in the level of a yield ensured by 100%
from 210 to 405 centners/hectare (Fig. 3). In order to increase a yield
level whose probability is less than 50% the role of irrigation is small.
It can therefore be concluded that the basic advantage of irrigation is
not an increase in the maximum level of APY with a low probability, but a
considerable increase in the minimum 100% ensured APY level. For this pur-
pose conditions are created by irrigation which ensure the maximum receipts
of PAR in sunny years with few clouds.
There is a great gap between the APY and'PY curves (Fig. 3). This indicates
that the potato yield is also limited by other background factors which we
have not examined, especially the soil and air temperature. A considerable
reserve in increasing APY is expressed in a total liquidation of the under-
collection of yield caused by phytophthora.
In the programning of yield it is necessary to be oriented on an APY level
corresponding to a sowing efficiency of 3-4% and a probability 50%. Under
irrigation conditions with a 50% probability it is possible to program a
yield of the Sulev variety of about 460-480 centners/hectare and for the
Belorusskiq ranniy variety ahout 420 centners/hectare. In a natural
precipitation regime the 50% probability of a yield for the Sulev variety
is ahout 390 centners/hectare.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Alpat'yev, A. M., VLAGOOBOROTY V PRIRODE I IKH PREOBRZOVANIYA (Moisture
Cycles in Nature'and Their Transforciation), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1969.
2. Budyko, M. I., KLIMAT I ZHIZN' (Climate and Life), Leningrad, Gidrometeo-
izdat, '1971. 132
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3. Zaidze, Ye. K., "Evaluation of the AgroclimaCic Resources of Potato
ProductIv{.ty j.n the Nonchernozem Zone of the European USSR," METEOR-
OI,OGIYA L GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 6, 1973.
4. Ztibenolc, L. I., ISPARENIYE NA KONTINENTAKH (Evaporation on the Contin- _
ents), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
5. Kivi, L. P., "Temporal Variability of Moisture Reserves in the Half-
Meter Soil Layer Under Perennial Grasses in the Territory of the Es-
tonian SSR," SOVRIIMENNYYE PROBLEMY I METCDY ISSLEDOVANIYA AGRO- I
MIKROKLIMATA (Modern Problems and Research Methods in Agro- and Micro-
climate), Tallin, 1976.
6. Ledneva, K. V., Meshcherskaya, A. V., MNOGOLETNIYE RYADY MESYACHNYKH
SlPubM OSADKOV, OSREDNENNYKH PO PLOSHADI, DLYA OSNOVNYKH SEL'SKOKHOZYAYST=
VENNYKH RAYONOV SSSR (YEZHEGODNYYE DANNYYE) (Lozg-Term Monthly Precipita-
tion Sums Averaged by Area for the Pr:incipal Agricultural Regions ef
the USSR (Annual. Data)), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1977.
7. Lorlch, A. G., DINArffKA NAKOPLENIYA UROZHAYA KARTOFELYA (Dynamics of Po-
tato Yield Accumulation), Moscow, Sel'khozgiz, 1948.
8. Polevoy, A. N., AGROMETEOROLOGICHESKIYE USLOVIYA I PRODUKTIVNOST' KAR-
TOFEI.YA V NECHERNOZEM'YE (Agrometeorological Conditions and Potato Pro-
ductivity in the Nonchernozem Zone), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978.
9. Strunnikov, E. A., OTESPECHENNOST' VLAGOY SEL'SKOKHOZYAYSTVENNYKH KUL'TUR
NA SEVERO-ZAPADE SSSR (Probable Moisture Supply of Agricult-ral Crops in
ttte Northweste.rn USSR), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
10, Tooming, Kh. G., SOLNECHNAYA RADIATSIYA I FORMIROVANIYE UROZHAYA (Solar
Radiatiar.i and Yield rormation), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1977.
11. Tooming, Kh. G., Karing, P. Kh., "Agroclimatic Evaluation of Potential
Yield of Perennial Grasses and Yie1d Deficits Caused by a Moisture Def-
_ icit," MF.TEOROLOGIYA I GIUROLOGIYA, No 2, 1977.
12. Tooming, Kh. G., Myaetalu, Kh., Kyyva, P., Tammets, T., Rayg, Kh., "Pro-
gracmning of Maximum Yields of Potato," VESTNIK SEL'SKOKHOZYAYSTVENNOY
NAi1KI (Herald of Agricultural Sciences), No 2(257), 1978.
13. Tsuberbiller, Ye. A., "Agrameteorological Principles for the Cultivation
of High Potato Yields," TRUDY IEM (Transactions of the Institute of Ex-
perimental Meteorology), No 4, 1968.
14. Chirkov, Yu. I., AGROMETEOROLOGICHESKIYE USLOVIYA I PRODUKTIVNOST'
KUKURUZY (Agrometeorological Conditions and Corn Productivity), Lenin-
grad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1969.
133
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15. Shabanov, V. V., BIOKLIMATICHESKOYE OBOSNOVANIYE MELIORATSII (Biocli-
toatic Support of Melioration), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1973.
. 16. Moorby, J., Milthorpe, F. L., "Potato," CROP PHYSIOLOGY. SOME CASE HIS-
7'ORIES, edited by L. T. Evans, Cambridge University Press, 1974.
17. Rijtema, P. E., Endrodi, G., CALCULATION OF PRODUCTION OF POTATOES,
Neth. J. Agric. Sci., Vol 18, 1970. ,
18. Winkler, E., "Kartoffelbau in Tirol II. Photosynthesevermogen und Respir-
ation von verschiedenen Kartoffelarten," POTATO AES., Vol 14, 1971.
19. Wit, C. T., "Tr.anspiration and Crop Yield," VERSL. LANDBOUK. ONDERZ.
(Agric. Res. Rep.), No 64, 6, Wageningen, 1958.
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UDC 551.521
SPECTRAL MEASUREMENTS OF ABSORPTION OF SOLAP. RADIATION BY IP]DUSTRIAL HAZE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 111-113
[Article by Candidates of Physical and.Mathematical Sciences A. I. Ivanov
and I. A. Fedulin, V. N. Korovchenko, Astrophysical Institute Kazakh Academy
of Sciences, submitted for publication 5 June 1978]
Abstract: Using surface spectral measurements
of direct and scattered solar radiation in
eight parts of the spectral region 0.405-1.01
�m it was possible to find its absorption by
industrial haze. The corresponding measurements
were made under conditions of a highly turbid
atmusphere in a large city at negative air tem-
peratures. Comparison of the measured absorp-
tion values and their spectral dependence with
availatle data in the literature on laboratory
experiments gives basis for assuming that the
detected absorption was caused, for the most
part, by soot and particles of uncombusted coal.
[Text] In order to evaluate the influence of industrial haze on the environ-
men*_ it is important to know its capacity for absorbing solar radiation in
different parts of the spectrum. The corrzsponding investigation is carried
out most correctly when the industrial aerosol is in its natural state,
that is, the particles are suspended in the air. This is entirely explic-
able because with any method for the sampling of aerosol to a greater or
lesser degree its transformation occurs and accordingly the results may dif-
fer from the true resulr.s.
BelQw we describe the method and cite the corresponding results of invest-
igations of spectral aerosol absorption at Alma-Ata in the visual and near-
IR spectral regions. The corresponding measurements were made in late Octo-
ber and November at negative air temperatures. Under such comditions there
is a layer which is uplifted by several hundreds of ineters from the earth's
surface, a temperaturP inversion which impedes free exchange with the air .
masses situated above. In addition, the singular local relief leads to vir-
tually complete windlessness. These conditions, plus such a powerful aero-
sol generator as a major city with a well-developed�industry and transport
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system, cause an increased concentration of industrial aerosol.
Two instruments were used in carrying out measurements: a visual electrophoto-
meter, supplied with interference light filters, and an IR spectroelectro-
photometer, constructed on the basis of an IKS-11 monochromatar. The half-
width of transmission of the interfereace light filters did not exceed
0.008 �.m and the spectral width of the monochromator slit was 0.01 � m. The
investigations were made at eight wavelengths in the spectral range 0.405-
1.01 ~xm, situated in the atmospheric windows of transparency. Direct and
scattered (solar almucantar) solar radiation was measured. Further computa-
tions were made in the following way. In principle, by carrying out measure-
ments of direct solar radiations that is, by determining the illumination
of a standard screen, oriented perpendicularly to the direct solar rays,
with different solar zenith angles Z p. it is possible, by the classic Bouguer
. method, to determine the optical thickness of extinction 'G B:
Em = E� ex p tb mG) � (1)
[ 6= B] Here Em, ED is the illumination of the screen by direct solar rays
at the earth's surface and beyond the limits of the atmosphere respectively;
m (D is atmospheric mass in the direction of the sun.
However, an invariable condition for the use of expression (1) is optical
stability of the atmosphere over the entire course of the measurements.
Here by the term optical stability we have in mind a constancy of the op-
tical thickness of extinction. Under conditions of urban measurements it is
known that this condition is not satisfied. Therefore, the -G B value was
found by the method of exoatmospheric sun brilliance. In order to apply this
method the instruments were supplied with sources of constant brightness.
- Therefore, in place of (1) we write the expression
1^t - eXD (--Tfi (2)
[ 6 = B;.n = ss] where Im, Ip, ISS are the instrument readings proportional
to the brightness of a standard screen at the earth's surface, beyond the
limits of the atmosphere and the brightness of a standard source respec-
tively.
The use of the ratios Im/ISSg IO/Iss makes it possible to exclude the pos-
sibility of any change in response of the ap,oaratus to measured radiation,
and this means the ratio IO/Iss is a constant for the particular instrument.
For each of the employed instruments this constant was first determined by
extrapolati.on of the Bouguer straight lines to m p= 0 using data from meas-
urements.in ,3 rural place for selected optically stable days. In determin-
ing IO/Iss we also took into account a seasonal correction for the change
in the distance between the earth and the sun. As a result, expression (2)
makes it possible to determine the optical thickness of extinction for each
moment in time as
! /m
1
1~ 1( Ig i J
TO - u,4S4 m0 .
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The value of the optical thickness of extinction can be written in the form
of the sum
t~ tp Tn :~1 s� .{-'cP --t" ,
3 4 [ b = B; p = sc (attered) ; rt' = ab (sorbed) ]
(3)
where the subscripts "a" and "m" denote the aerosol and molecular components
of the atmosphere and "sc" and "ab" denote scattering and absorption.
The component f, m is easily computed using the well-known Rayleigh-Cabannes
formulas. The term G ab in our case is different from zero only in certain
parts of the spectrum where there is absorption by ozone in weak Chappuis
bands. Since we know the mean ozone content for a particular place and sea-
son [3], then 'G ab was also easily computed.
It is most complex to find the component 'G sc. We will discuss its determina-
tion in greater detail. Using brightness measurements in the solar almucantar
it is possible to find the so-called brightness indicatrix using formally
the brightness formula from the single scattering'theory
t~~f (4) = e .
Eoexp :6 me) mG '
where B(~P) is sky brightness at the angular distance T from the sun.
Due to the effects of multiple scattering and reflection of light from the un-
derlyj.ng surface the value N-H( T) will be somewhat greater than the scatter-
ing indicatrix f( T). In accordance with the known formula, the optical thick-
ness of scattering can be determined in the following way:
r
-CsC = 2 j f sinydcp.
U
Subst:i.tuting the brightness indicatrix � H(9~) into the integrand in place
of F((fwe obtain
~
H =2 � V t'~i (f) sinsdy~.
ii
It is customary to call the total optical thickness of scattering fg. It is
a convenient characteristic of the total scattered flux. The authors of [2]
examined the possibility of determining the optical thickness of scattering
from ti g, determined from measurements. It was assumed that 'L g is dependent,
for the most part, on Z Sc and local albedo q. However, the indicatrix ef-
fecCs are weak and can be taken into account empirically. Then, finding
from measurements of Z H and q(it is sufficient to estimate the latter
value from data in the literature) and using known computations [5], it is pos-
sible to determine 'G Sc. The method was checked on the basis of extensive data
for the near-IR spectral region and yielded good results. Later the method was
modified, which made possible its successful use both in the IR and in the
visible regions of the spectrum in the absence of appreciable absorption [3].
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The use of this method in our case required additional investigations due
to a possible appreciable absorption of radiation by industrial haze. In
actuality, in the presence of appreciable absorption by a medium with any
definite optical thickness of scattering ZSC will correspond to a lesser
t g value than in the case of a nonabsorbing medium with the same tsc. Nat-
urally, it is understood that in both cases the albedo of the underlying
will be one and the same. Such an effect is associated with the absorption
, of radiation multiply scattered and reflected from the underlying surface.
In order to evaluate the possibilities of the method applicable to an absorb-
ing medium we will use the results of our measurements in the water vapor ab-
sorption band pd~ max = 0.94 � m) and the near-lying spectral sectors free
of molecular absorption (measurements in a rural area). By means of interpol-
ation we will determine the values 'GH(A = 0.94~1m) which would be observed
if water vapor was absent in the atmosphere. However, real 'G H( A = 0.94 � m)
are known from experimentation. The difference in the 'G g( A = 0.94 � m) val-
ues found in this way will be the greater the more water vapor there is in
the atmosphere, and as was already mentioned above, is related to the absorp-
tion of radiation multiply scattered and reflected by water vapor. Thus, draw-
ing an analogy, it is possible to make a quantiitative estimate of the consid-
" ered effect, also associated with aerosol absorption. The analogue of 3ero-
sol absorption here will be absorption by water vapor, whose content is known
to us. To be sure, when making such an analysis we took into account the iden-
tity of other measurement conditions, including the spectral resolution of
the apparatus [4]. As a result it was found that for the mean optical thick-
nesses of scattering and stipulated aerosol absorption 'C ab(-C sc +f ab) - 0.5
the use of the method described above for determining the ti sc.valuas leads
to an error in the result of approximately 2%.
r: I(r;�t;;
A ~
.
0,6 0,6 ,i MxM
Fig. 1. Spectral dependence of fraction of aerosol absorption on total aero-
sol extinction.
KEY:
A. 'G ab ('G sc + 't ab)
B. �m
Thus, in accordance with [3], we determined the optical thickness of scatter-
ing and the optical thickness of aerosol scattering 'GSc, -L Sc _ Z m
sc sc�
Now, using expression (3), it is easy to find the optical thickness of aero-
sol absorption 'Gab. The averaged spectral dependence of the fraction of
aerosol absorption on total aerosol extinction "Cab~( -C sc +C ab) is shown
_ 138
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in Fig. 1. The corresponding data were obtained using 70 series of ineasure-
ments.
It should be ment:Loned that the described method without carrying out simul-
taneous measurements in any purity "standards" (rural area near a city) makes
it possihle, in principle, to obtain only the integral characteristics of
the aerosol, suspended in the entire thickness of the atmosphere, being of
independent interest. However, in our case it can be asserted that the de-
tected absorption is caused specifically by industrial haze, since an anal-
- ysis of the results of long-term measurements in the adjacent rural area
gives a level of ahsorption bq natural aerosol not exceeding 10% [3]. Since
- in the ratio considered ahove fihe 'G a value was governed, for the most part,
b.y the industrial haze under an inversion, whereas 'GSc relates to the en-
tire th{ckness of the atmos.phere, an absorption value of approximately 30%
can be regarded as the lower boundary for industrial haze itself.
An inr_eresting characteristic of the detected absorption is its neutral
depencience on wavelength. This fact, and also the absorption values them-
selves and the results of laboratory investigations [1] makes it possible
to as.sume that for the most part absorption is caused by soot and particles
of uncomhusted coal.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Glushko, V. N., Livshits, G. Sh., Tashenov, B. T., "Investigation of
True Aerosol Absorption of Light in the Region 0.4-2.4 � m," IZVESTIYA
AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences,
Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean), No 8, 2, 1972.
2. Ivanov, A. I., Livshits, G. Sh., Tashenov, B. T., "Determination of At-
mospheric Transparency in the IR Spectral Region According to Measure-
ments of the Intensity of Scattered Radiation," IZVESTIYA AN SSSR, FIZ-
IIC.A ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, No 11, 2, 1975.
3. Ivanov, A. I., Fedulin, I. A., "Possibility of Determining Pure Absorp-
ti.on from Measurements of Direct and Scattered Solar Radiation," I VSE-
SQYU'LNOYE SOVESHCHANIYE PO ATMOSFERNOY OPTIKE (First All-Union Confer-
ence on Atmospheric Optics), Part I, TEZISY DOKLADOV (Suumaries of Re-
ports), Tomsk, 1976.
4. Toropova, T. P., "Calibration Curves for Determining the Water Vapor
Content in the Entire Thickness of the Atmosphere by the Spectroscopic
Method," TRUDY ASTROFIZICHESKOGO INSTITUTA AN KazSSR (Transactions of
the Astrophysical Institute Kazakh Academy of Sciences), No 4, 1963.
5. Coulson, K. L., Dave, I. V., Sekera, Z., TABLES RELATED TO RADIATION
EME,RGING k'ROM A PLANETARY ATMOSPHERE WITH RAYLEIGH SCATTERING, Univ.
of California Press, Berkeley, Los Angeles, 1960.
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UDC 502.7(100)
INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON COMPREHENSIVE GLOBAL MONITORING OF
ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 114-118
[Article by Doctor of Technical Sciences F. Ya. Rovinskiy, Institute of Ap-
plied Geophysics, submitted for publication 24 January 19791
Ahs.tract: This paper gives a review of reports
at the Internati.onal Symposium on Comprehensive
Global Monitoring of Environmental Contamina-
tion (Rtga, 12-15 Decemfier 1978).
[Text] In the course of recent decades there has been accumulation of a great
many facts concerning the unfavorable effect of human society on the surround-
ing environment, in large part associated with its contamination. Fears have
arisen that the accumulation of harmful substances in the biosphere is lead-
ing not only to local changes in the environment, but can also assume a global
character, threatening the very existence of life on earth.
Thus, the need has arisen for organizing a special system for observing the
state of the biosphere. The plan of action adopted by the UN Environmental
Conference (1972, Stockholm) provided for the creation of a global system
for monitoring the environment..An important step toward creating a global
system for monitoring the environment was the intergovernmental conference
called by UNEP in 1974 in Nairobi, Kenya, where recommendations were formul-
ated an determining the principles and goals of the global system for mon-
itoring the environment, on priority criteria and a list of indices of state
of the environment to be monitored and on a number of other fundamental di-
rections in planning and developing the global system for monitoring the en-
vironment.
The scientific organization of the global system for monitoring the environ-
ment is being carried out within the framework of Project No 14 in the UNESCO
program "Man and the Biosphere." 7.'he WMO is the international organization
which is working on the practical implementation of the global system for
monitoring the envtronment.
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Over the course of recent years much work has been carried out in the member
countries of the Socialist Economic Bloc. A coordination center for the prob-
lem of a global system for monitoring the environment has been established
and ttie cooperation program involves more than 80 institutes in seven coun-
tries in the European region.
The results of scientific research in this field were discussed at an inter-
national symposium on comprehensive global monitoring of contamination of
the environment which was held in December 1978 in the USSR (Riga). This sym-
posium was organized hy the WMO and under the UNEP program, in collaboration
with the USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
and the Academy of Sciences Latvian SSR. Participating were scientists and
specialists of Bulgaria, Great Britain, Hungary, East Germany, Canada, Poland,
USSR, West Germany, Czechoslovakia, Switzerland, and also representatives of
ttie WM0, UidEP and UNFSCO.
The following sect:Lons operated together with the plenary sessions, where
the conferees examined the scientific basis and purposes of comprehensive
glohal monitoring:
"Compreheasive Global Monitoring of Levels of Contamination of the Environ-
ment. Pri.nciples for the Organization of Monitoring Systems";
"5tudy of the Propagation and Cycling of Contaminating Substances in Natural
Media" ;
"Evaluation aud Prediction of the Influence of Contaminating Substances on
ttie F.cosystem and Climate."
More than o0 reports were presented at the symposium.
The chaircnan of the organizing committee of the symposium, Corresponding Mem-
ber USSR Academy of Sciences Yu. A. Izrael', presented the scheduled report
"Scientiftc Validation and Fundamental Principles of Monitoring of the En-
vironment and Climate." In his report he formulated the basic definitions
and established the monitoring components. By "monitoring" is meant such a
sys*_em of observations which makes it possible to discriminate changes in
ttie state of the environment occurring under the influence of anthropogenic
activity. This system includes observations of changes in the state of the
environment and the sources of these effects; evaluation of state of the
_ environment; prediction of the state of the environment. Thus, monitoring
- differs from earlier existing observation systems, although provision is
made for use of the necessary information, for example, meteorological,
hydrological and other data.
The basis for comprehensive monitoring is an integrated approach, providing
not only for observations of contamination of all media (multimedium mon-
itoring), but also detection of reactions to this effect in biological,
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ecological and otlier systems. Therefore, observations of changes in the state
of the environment and sources of modification include the following: geo-
physical, geochem:tcal, physiograph:ic data, and also data on the composition
and charac:ter of contaminations of all media; observations of sources of
contaminations anci other modifying factora, observations of biotic reactions
tn diEferent agents and changes in the environment; observationa of the re-
actions of major systems (weather, climate, ozone layer).
An evaluation of chaages in the state of the environment will answer the ques-
tion of the degree to which the environment deviates from its admissible'
state, will clarify the reason for such deviations and will establish the
losses caused by such a deviation. It is important in this process to for-
mulate criteria of an acceptable state of the environment and also the crit-
ical and admissible modification of the environment. For the purposes of a
scientific validation of monitoring it is necessary to carry out comprehen-
sive investigations and analysis of the modification of different anthropo-
genic factors at the level of populations and ecosystems, ascertain the crit-
ical factors in the modification, such as critical chemical forms of contam-
inating subs.tances, and determine the most sensitive elements of the biosphere.
Here an important consideration in monitoring is determining the prior3.ty in
ohservations so that it will be possible to obtain a sufficiently complete
picture of the state of the environment at the present and in the future.
In organizing monitoring provision must be made for comprehensive observa-
tions at levels with different inCensity of modification the regional
and glohal impact; special attention must Ue given to background observations,
and here the most important role is played by monitoring in biospheric re-
ser.ves.
- The author has an interesting approach to determination of the place of mon-
itoring in the overall system of ineasures for preserving the environment,
its interaction with control in the field of preservation of the environment.
It is more economical and desirable to exert an influence on the sources of
contamination or other factors of anthropogenic origin than to contend with
a modified (such as contaminated) environment.
A communication by F. Sell and K. Wallen (UNEP) examined the fundamental
tasks, principles and content of work on creating a global system for mon-
itoring the environment. At the presFnt time, within the framework of the
global system for monitoring the environment, a number of projects are being
formulated which are directed to a clarification of the influence of anthropo-
enic activity, primarily contamination of the environment, on climate, human
health, state of the ocean, different resources, etc.
A. Keller (WMO), in his report, gave a review of activity of the nerwork of
regional and base stations for monitoring atmospheric contamination and pre-
cipitation; he examined the program for this monitoring and the criteria used
in placement of stations. At present about 150 regional and base stations
are operating or are planned. These are situated on all the continents in
different climatic and physiographic zones. For the purposes of inethodological
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direct:ion of these observations the WMO is issuing the necessary recommend-
ations, is. cooperating in carrying out intercalibration of inethods and in-
struments, etc.
A number of reports dealt with the fundamental principles of comprehensive
global monitoring and criteria for placing the network of stations for com-
preherisive monitoring.
R. B. riunn (Canada) ewphasizes that the idea of comprehensive monitoring,
when measurements are made at.one time in one place and take in the atmo-
sphere, soil, snow cover, surface and ground water, biote, including its
reaction to modification, is extremely attractive. He noted that for the.
first time such comprehensive observations have been initiated in the USSR.
The reports of A. J. Fairclaf and G. N. Port (Great Britain) pointed out
that the principal tasks of monitoring are supplying information to govern-
- ments and the public on the state of the environment and also ensuring the
planning of ineasures for its preservation and evaluating their effective-
ness, as well as specific monitoring of environmental contamination. The
reports emphasize the need for practical implementation of global monitor-
ing o1" the enviror.ment.
A reporr by B. Uzunov and I. Iliev (Bulgaria) was devoted to the principles
of interaction between the global monitoring system and the national and
regl.onal otzservation systems and information on environmental contamination.
The global system for monitoring the environment, in contrast to the nation-
al monitoring systems, which are examined in the examples of the USSR, France,
[dest Germany, Italy and Bulgaria, will reflect the base state of the biosphere.
The reports of L. Shepezi (Hungary), M. Ye. Berlyand, Ye. S. Selezneva, 0. P.
Petrenchuk, B. I. Styro, K. K. Shopauskas (USSR) and R. Khrynevic (Poland)
examin.ed data from the operation of stations for monitoring atmospheric con-
tamination and precipitation under the WMO program. An analysis indicated
that glolaal contamination of the atmosphere exceeds the anticipated level
predicted on the hasis of traditional observations. The near-surface con-
centrattons differ in dependence on the scale of observations global, con-
tinental, regional, local. The many observational stations of the Social-
ist Economic Bloc countries and cooperation in the field of international com-
parison of inethods and instruments, which was carried out in 1973 and 1978
in the USSR, are of considerable importance in the general network.
The principle of paired stations, one of which is situated in the city, broad-
ens the possibility of interpretation of observational data. Actinometric and
other data from background stations in the USSR indicate a cleaner atmosphnre
in comparison with some other countries. A tendency to an increase in air
dust content outside cities is not entirely clearly manifested in the long-
range picture. Systematic investigations of the chemical composition of pre-
cipitation made it possible to refine the concepts of background and regional
levels of atmospheric contamination, which must be taken into account in the
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placement of background stations. In the USSR there are 70 stations in opera-
tion for study of the chemical composition of precipitation. Long-term ob-
servations indicate that over a period of 15-20 years the mineralization of
precipitation in the western regions of the European USSR increased, primar-
ily, due to s ulfates, although the pH of sulfur is 5-6. Data on the composi-
tion of cloud water are representative as a background. Some ideas were de-
veloped on the mechanism of washing-out of impurities by precipitation.
The possihility of an influence of anthropogenic activity on climate and
the ozone layer was outlined in the reports of Corresponding Member USSR
Academy of Sciences M. I. Budyko and V. L. Tal'roze, et al. (USSR). The
increase in the C02 concentration during the last century was 12-13%, and in
the 22d century the mass of atmospheric C02 can increase by a factor of 6-8
in conparison with the 19th century. According to different models, this
will a_ead to an increase in the mean temperature at the earth's surface by
1-1.5"C already b}* 2000, which will result in a considerable redistribution
of moisture and heat; later there can be a radical restructuring of envir-
onment:al conditions. The prevention of a breakdown of ozone in the strato-
sphere under the catalytic influence of a number of substances of anthropo-
genic origin first of all requires the organi2ation of monitoring of both
ozone itself and these substances. The required accuracy of these measure-
ments must not be inferior to the present-day accuracy of laboratory meas-
urements.
A numher of reports were devoted to the practical results of comprehensive
monitaring at the background level. A report by F. Ya. Rovinskiy, et al. (USSR)
dealt with cooperation of the interested member-countries of the Socialist
Economic Bloc on the creation of subsystems in the global system for monitor-
ing tYe environment. A total of 22-25 stations will be c?-eated for background
comprehensive monitoring and these will carry out coordinated observations
under a unified program using standardized methods; seven such stations are
situated in the territory of the USSR in biospheric reserves, and in addi-
tion, already beginning in 1976, systematic observations have been made at
Borovoye (Northern Kazakhstan). The report gave an analysis of observational
data an the content of dust, sulfur gas, 3,4-benzopyrene in the atmosphere,
mercury, lead, cadmium, and arsenic in all media. Actinometric observations
charar.terize the atmosphere in this region as "pure" according to the WMO
classification.
A report by W. R. Schell (United States) discussed research data on the be-
havior and distribution of toxic substances among media at three levels:
global., as a result of global fallout, regional, where toxic metals enter
the marine ecosystem of the gulf, and local, where radionuclides from a
nuclear explosion were formed (Bikini atoll). The paper gives an interest-
ing relationship between the necessary and toxic levels of the content of
a number of inetals ia domestic animals, which varies from 40 (zinc) to 200
(manganese), D. D. Kelly (United States) and E. T. Degens (West Germany)
examined the background levels, biogeochemic;al cycle of C02 and its content
in the past. It was establtshed on the basis of oUservations in Alaska that
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there can be rather high fluctuations and seasonal changes in the atmospher-
ic content of C02 and the C02 content in lake waters; an important role in
- exchange between the atmosphere and ocean is played by arctic ice. Temporal
and meridional variations of small atmospheric impurities were examined in
a report by K. Hanson (United States). Particular attention is�devoted to
C02 and freons, which constitute a danger for the ozone layer. A report
by N. V. Moore (Great Britain) pointed out that monitoring of residues of
pesticides in the tissues of hirdsa in combination with monitoring of their
numbers and range, have made it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of
the 1961 ban on the use of persistent chlororganic pesticides.
The reports of Corresponding Member USSR Academy of Sciences Yu. A. Izrael',
et al., and V. A. Ionov, et al. (USSR) discussed the problems involved
in the monitoring of the atmospheric transport of contaminating substances
over great distances. The program of such observations is a part of the
, global system for monitoring the environment. It should supply information
on the transport of contaminating substances across the boundaries of coun-
, tries. The monitoring system will include surface stations, regular air-
craft and shipboaY�d observations. Remote and aircraft methods for monitor-
ing sulfur gas, mercury, ammonia and pesticides were examined.
The repurts o� A. I. Simonov (USSR), A. Preston, A. D. MacIntyre (Great
Britain) and E. Levy (Canada) examined the problem of marine monitoring,
priority z-equirements, regional and global aspects, comprehensive approach
in which observations include water, air and precipitation, bottom deposits
and lake and sea organisms. Long-term observations must first of all be
carried out in remote regions of the world ocean in order to reflect the
overall changes in the marine medium. One of these regions is Charlie sta-
tion in the North Atlantic Current, where monitoring is carried out on
Soviet weather shj.ps. An important role is played by the determination of the
balances of contaminating substances and forecasts and recommendations based
on this for reducing sea contamination. Hydrocarbons, the most significant
form of contamination in the seas and oceans, is devoted great attention.
It has been demonstrated that hydrocarbons of anthropogenic origin are
present everywhere, in the atmosphere over the ocean, in the surface film,
in the bottom deposits, water and organisms.
Tlie reports of V. T. Kaplin, A. A. Ivanova and A. A. MatvPyev, L. K. Sebakh
(USSR) were devoted to problems relating to the background monitoring of
s urface waters. An evaluation of the state of natural waters (rivers, lakes,
etc.) is made on the basis of special hydrochemical observations, whose pro-
gr.am includes bottom deposits, and also provides for the necessary hydrolog-
ical observations. Monitoring in Lake Baykal is one of the examples of a
comprehensive approach to baclcground observations in which there is a pos-
sibility for systematically ascertaining the balance of chemical substances
in a lalce, taking into account entry fron the atmosphere and from inflowing
rivers.
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A large group of reports was devoted to ecological and biological monitor-
ing. In a repor*_ by L. M. Filippova, et al. (USSR) there was a discussion
of still poorly developed problems involved in the monitoring of responses
o� the biote to anthropogenic effects at the hackground level, which is in-
tended for biospheric reserves. The basis for the evaluation and prediction
of the state of ecosystems can be the dose-effect dependence for tested spec-
ies., investigated under the controllable conditions of ecostats in combin-
ation with field observations. and matfiematical modeling-for ecosystems
grouped hy classes. The relaticnship between field observations and invest-
igations.of test objects should be optimized, using as a point of departure
the required reliability in predicting the state of ecosystems and expend-
itures. on monitoring.
A report by V. Ye. Sokolov and N. N. Smirnov (USSR) set forth a broad ap-
proach to the monitoring of the biological component of the biosphere, re-
quirements on the registry of species composition, structural and functional
charac:teristics of biological systems. The reports of K. Niomarkai and D.
Shash (Hungary) and J. F. Farrar and J. R. Thompson (Great Britain) examined
the effects of the influence of air contamination (by dust, sulfur gas, ozone,
etc.) on surface vegetation. It is shown that the changes in tree leaves and
grassy plants observed under urban conditions or near industrial objects are
caused by atmospheric coutamination, but these effects cannot be detected
at the background level. The reports of Ye. Ye. Syroyechkovskiy and A. V.
Denisova and L. D. Voronova and A. V. Denisova (USSR) give materials on the
accumulation of chlororganic pesticides in wild animals which take in these
substances as a result of circulation in the biosphere. A study was made of
land and water birds, rodents, predator mammals, that is, animals at differ-
ent trophic levels. A number of species can serve as an indicator of pesti-
cides in the environment.
The reports of A. V. Tsyban' (USSR) and R. W. Reisbrath and B. W. de Lappe
(United States) related to the biological monitoring of marine ecosystems.
The first of these gave a basis for the monitoring of ecosystems in the
Baltic Sea; particular attention is given to the microbiological component,
playing an important role in the destruction of some contaminating substances.
The author correctly mentions the still inadequate study of the joint effect
of different substances on lake and sea organisms.
The second report is devoted to a study of the patterns of accumulation of
_ different substances by mollusks, including chlororganic compounds (for ex-
ample, PCB), in the California region. Extensive data have been obtained
on the coefficients of accumulation in dependence on different ambient con-
ditions and it is demonstrated that the mollusks can serve as indicators
of contamination of the sea medium. The reports.of 0. M. Kozhova, G. P. An-
drushaytis and N. M. Trunov, et al. (USSR) examined the influence of con-
tamination on lake and river organisms in fresh-water systems. In the first
report it was demopstrated that the use of ecological mapping is of great
importance in such a unique water hody as Baykal; this includes an evalua-
tion of the composition, distribution and functional state of associations
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of all trophic levels with the use of mathematical ;.ing. This approach
made it possible to detect some anthropogenic changes ~_nd can be proposed
for a system for the monitoring of Baykal. Interesting energy approaches
to anthropogenic changes in ecosystems in fresh water bodies are developed
In the secnnd report. Tlie third report discusses the feasibility of the
use of nonspecific cellular and subcellular reactions for monitoring pur-
pos.es.
The reports of V. A. Kovda and A. S. Ke_rzhentsev, L. M. Shabad, Yu. P. Baden-
kov and B. K. Blinov, et al. (USSR) discussed the problems involved in the
migration and circulation of anthropogenic substances in the environment.
The substances are transported hy moving media and are incorporated in the
geochemical, trophic and other migration paths. The path followed, the ac-
cumulation or scattering of suhstances, are dependent both on the environ-
menr.al condit_ions and on the properties of these substances. The accumula-
tion of tox.ic, especially carcinogenic substances of the 3,4-benzopyrene type,
In the higher links of trophic systems can have particularly unfavorable con-
- sequeiices. Its constant Pjection into the atmosphere creates a definite back-
grotincl around man, and therefore the monitoring of 3,4-benzopyrene is ex-
r.remel.y timely. Interesting data on the migration of a number of heavy metals
in thc! "atmosphPre-river runoff-sea lagoon" system were obtained in the
Sikhote-Alin region; they can be very useful in organizing background mon-
iroring in this biospheric reserve. Model field experiments with some heavy
metals made it possible to establish the surface runoff coefficients (mer-
cury 8.7%, lead 1.3% in the first year); a major contribution to the contam-
inat:ion of plants.by DDT and other chlororganic compounds is made by aerial `
~ rnigration.
i! number of reports examined the modeling of different aspects of the behavior
of sul,stances in the environment or the state of natural systems. The model
of cir�culation of contaminating substances among geophysical media, develop-
ed in the report of V. M. Koropalov and A. ICh. Ostromogil'skiy (USSR), made
it possible to give an evaluation of macroscale contamination effects. A
model of the "chamber" type is employed, realized in the form of a system
of ?inear di.fferential equations; constant coefficients have been adopted for
a global scale. The problems of evuluating the global balances of toxic sub-
stances are analyzed in a report by L. J�. Milask (Un-!ted States). The mathe-
n,atical model of an exogenous succession, the characteristic state of present-
day ecusystems under the influence of anthropogenic factors, is described in
a report by S. M. Semenov (USSR). This model is one of the prognostic ele-
ments in the ecological monitoring system. From this model, in particular,
foilow the recommendations for biological monitoring, for example, the co-
efficient of reproduction of the observed species. The reports of L. M.
Ga]kin (USSR), M. Zier, R. Schenk (East Germany) were devoted to the pecul-
iarities of models of diffusion of impurities in inhomogeneous media (water
- arid air media).
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A description of the methods for background monitoring of contaminating sub-
stances and accompanying factors was given in the reports of F. Ya. Rovinskiy,
et al., N. S. VolPberg and Z. G. Tul'chinskaya, E. I. Babkina, et al. (USSR),
K. Gravat (United States), B. P. Strekozov, et al., N. A. Petrov and A. V.
Karaushev and B. G. Skakal'skiy (USSR). �
In general, the reports and discussions at the symposium demonstrated that ~
scientists of different countries are actively working on the problem of
ohservation, evaluation and prediction of the state of the environment;
:i resolution adopted at the symposium was directed to the furCher devel.op-
ment of research in this timely field.
J
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REVIEW OF MONOGRAPH BY A. M. SHUL'GIN: AGROMETEOROLOGIYA I AGROKLIMATOLOGIYA
(AGROMEiEOROLOGY AND AGROCLIMATOLOGY), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 119-120
[Article by Candidate of Geographical Sciences V. A. Sennikov]
[Text] The author of this newly published text, Professor A. M. Shul'gin,
for many years tauRht a course in agrometeorology and agroclimatology in
the Geography Fac;ulty of Moscow State University. The reviewed study aid
is a result of many years of work, research and direct experience of this
professional educator. Although the text is intended for students at col-
leges studying in the "Meteorology" field of specialization, its content
makes it possible to count on a broader range of readers. Thus, the mono-
graph will unquestionably be of interest to a great army of students at
agricultural r_olleges and natural geography faculties at teachers' inst-
itutes, specialists at agricultural experimental institutes and scientific
research institutes, and also practical workers in agriculture. Therefore,
the publication. of this study aid by Professor A. M. Shul'gin is very
- tiIItely.
The book is compact and small in volume (12.5 printer's sheets, 200 pages),
but extensively covers the problems treated. This can be judged from a
brief review of the monograph's contents.
The first two chapters define the subject of agrometeorology and agrocli-
matology and discuss tizeir importance for agriculture and also research
methods. The author has succeeded in saturating this seemingly traditional
introductory part with considerable factual material. Here he clearly de-
fines the problems in the studied disciplines, their place and relation-
ship to related sciences. It is only a pity that the list of problems
does not include such a problem as the development of new and improvement
of existing methods of agrometeorological observations.
The brief history of the science defines the principal stages in its de-
velopment and mentions the names of leading scientists. The author men-
_ tions the organization not only of the USSR Agrometeorological Service,
but also the s*_atus of agrometeorology abroad. 149
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The methodological principles of agrometeorology as a science were examined _
by the author from the clear points of view of Marxist-Leninist philosophy.
For example, it was shown how the fundamental dialectic laws (denial of
~
denial, transition of quantity into quality, etc.) can be applied to agro-
meteorological objects. There is emphasis on the interrelationship and
intercausality of natural factors in the process of cultivation of agri-
cultural plants. A number of plant cultivation and agricultural laws on which agrometeorological research is based are given.
In a special section of the second chapter the author explains the concept
of agrometeorological and agroclimatic indices.
The subsequent arrangement of the textual material is Lrusual. Taking as
his basis the natural periodization of natural phenomena to which agricul-
tural production conforms, the author examines agrometeorological condi-
tions separately in the warm (third chapter) and cold (fourth chapter)
periods of the year.
The exposition of agrometeorological conditions in the warm period of the
year begins with a section on the principal biological laws of growth and
development of plants and the formation of their yield. Here the author
expresses and validates the fundamental position that phenological phen-
omena do not adequately cover the processes of formation of different plant
organs and espec:ially those which form the yield of agricultural crops. Ac-
cordingly, the text gives atcention to the need for taking the stages in
arganogenesis into account. This is already being done in the carrying out
of many agrometeorological investigations and also in the routine servic-
ing of agricultiire. Among the total diversity of agrometeorologic3l factors detErmining the pro-
ductivity of agricultural plants, the author examines the most important:
solar radiation, air and soil temperature, moisture. Their role is demon-
strated using the most recent attainments in agrometeorology. Unfortunate-
ly, the text does not give a definition of photosynthetically active radi-
ation.
In the third chapter we should particularly note three sections which are
important in both theoretical and practical respects. These are the expo-
sition of multifactor relationships between plant yield and agrometeoro-
logical conditions, modeling of processes in agrometeorology and prin-
ciples for the programming of the yields of agricultural crops.
In describing the agrometeorological conditions for the cold season of the
year the emphasis has been put on the snow cover, temperature regime of
the air and upper soil layers, and also the complex of agrometeorological
conditions ensuring the wintering of agricultural plants and the resistance
of plants to winter cold.
A special chapter, the fifth, is devoted to weather phenomena unfavorable `
for agriculture. The author examines their origin, essential characteris-
tics, geographical distribution and measures for contending with drought,
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dus.t storms, frosts (winterkill, rotting from wetting, withering, ice crust,
heaving, dessicat:ton). In our opinion, the material in this chapter would
be received better if each of the unfavorable phenomena was described separ-
ately, beginning from its origin and ranging through measures for contending
with it. In addition, it would be useful, in addition to the agrometeorolog-
ical reasons for the appearance of droughts and drying winds, to mention the
synoptic processes involved in their origin and'also more clearly character-
ize the new soil-protecti.ng agricultural system, successfully employed in
contending with unfavorable phenomena in the Kazakhstan and Western Siberia
regions.
The sixth chapter is devoted to agrometeorological forecasts and information.
The types of agrometeorological servicing of agriculture are described brief-
ly, and great attention is devoted to methods for the compilation of agro-
meteorological forecasts (heat supply, moisture supply, wintering, yield,
- etc.). And this has been justified by the practical value which the fore-
casts llave. The chapter gives graphs and prognostic formulas. The importance
and e.ffectiveness of forecasts and information releases are demonstrated.
- The chapter is written concisely, but gives a full idea concerning the pres-
ent status of the problem.
The agroclimatic resources of the USSR and the world (seventh chapter) is an
independent course in itself. The author has here done fairly well with the
task oF defining the fundamental aspects oF the subject. Among them is the
concept "c1:i.matic and agroclimatic resources." The chapter gives a geography
_ o.f radiation and thermal resources of the USSR. The agroclimatic conditions
of wintering are evaluated. The principles of general and special agroclimatic
regionalization of the USSR ara presented with examples. Such sections as
mlcroclimate and soil climate and regionalization of the USSR on the basis of
soil climate were written on the basis of investigations by A. M. Shu1'gin. ~
'Chey were logically incorporated into a description of the agroclimatic re-
sources of the USSR. This same chapter has the sections: climate and domestic ~
anj.mals; climate, disease and predators on agricultural crops.
The text ends with an eighth chapter on melioration of the climate of agri-
cultural fiields. As indicated at the beginning of the chapter, Soviet science
tias ttie task of formulation of the problem of inelioration of the climate of
agricultural fields and the development of its theory. Professor A. M. Shul'-
gin has made a considerable contribution to investigation of these problems.
Due t.o his studies it became logical to end the evaluation of agroclimatic
resources with the problems involved in improving (meliorating) these re-
sources. First of all, this includes a complex of ineasures directed to a
.l_essening or elimination of unfavorable climatic phenomena (drought, drying
wi_nds, severe cold, frosts, etc.). The theory of inelioration of climate is
also given in a broader plan. Th.e author eniunerates and discusses the basic
methods for regulating soil climate and microclimate: water melioration,
afforestation for the protection of fieldss snow melioration, land melior-
ation, artificial heating, protected soil, meliorative agroengineering
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measures, et.c. The chapter concludes with the regionalization and effective-
ness of climatic melioration.
A. M. Shul'gin has written a new, original textbook, written in good language,
churacterized by a sequential exposition of the material on a rigorous sci-
entific basis. The reviewed textbook, with respect to coverage of the touch-
ed-on problems, characterizing the present status of agrometeorology and
agroclimatology, its structuring, clarity in formulations and demonstration
of the principal points, in the next edition, which in our opinion should
he pu6lished, can be fully presented as a textbook.
I would like to mention the good printing job done on the book. The figures
and maps published in the monograph are very clearly done. It is clear that
the academic literature released by the Hydrometeorological Publishing House
during recent years is approaching the best-examples of printed publications.
The appearance of this new book by A. M. Shul'gin has been received with
great interest. Without question, it will be regarded highly by student users,
professional agrometeorologists and geographers, and by workers in agricul-
tural production.
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11
MONSOON DYNAMICS. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CURRENT RESEARCH IN GEOPHYSICS.
EDITED BY T. N. KRISHNAMURTI, BIRKHAUSER VERLAG, BASEL AND STUTTGART, 1973
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 120-121
[Review by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences S. 0. Krichak]
[Text] The importance of investigations associated with monsoonal circula-
tion of atmospheric processes is obvious. The enormous scale of the phen-
omenan makes it a significant element in general circulation of the atmo-
sphere. There is no doubt but there is a relationship between monsoon in-
tensity and middle-latitude processes. Interhemisphere interactions also.
exert a significant influence on the development of monsoon circulation.
A mechanism of an inverse influence of monsoonal processes on surrounding
regions is not entirely understood but is by no means excluded.
The economic reasons for interest in the investigation of monsoons are also
understandable: monsoonal precipitation, for example, actually determines
the magnitude of yields in a number of densely populated countries in south-
east Asia.
During the last five years two major scientific research experiments have
been carried out: "Monsoon-73" and "Monsoon-77." During 1978-1979, within
the framewark of the FGE, the regional experiment MONEX will be carried
out. The USSR is definitely participating in all these.observation programs.
Abroad a major contribution to the development of investigations of atmo-
spheric processes during the monsoon period has been made by a team headed
by a professor at the University of Florida, Doctor T. N. Krishnamurti.
Article 21 in the reviewed collection of articles generalizes the results
of research wtaich has exerted an appreciable influence�on the forming of a
number of theoretical concepts and hypotheses concerning the nature of mon-
soonal circulation, which were adopted by this group. The assertion that
the papers presented in the collection define the status of the problem to
mid-1976, as stated in the foreword by the editor, is to a high degree
correct.
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The range of discussed problems is extremely broad. Virtually all of the
presented investigations are characterized by interest in ascertaining the
physical factors and the phenomena observed in nature. The matter of inves-
tigation of the vorticity balance was dealt with in a study by J. S. Fein,
and especially C. P. Chang. A matter of particular interest, discussed here,
is the problem of the possible mechanism of dissipation of vorticity. The
Chang paper also examines the problem of the physical interpretation of
the results of spectral analysis of ineteorological elements, deal.t with in
greater detail in an article by M. Murakami.
The problems involved in atmospheric energy were examined in articles by
T. Murakami regional aspects and A. H. Oort and P. H. Chan. The latter
investigation seems particularly important. Here, on the basis of material
from five-year archives 1958-1963 and 1968-1973 a study was made of the
role oF the Asiatic monsoon in maintaining the balance of the moment of
- momentum and kinetic energy of inean flow in the tropics. It was demonstrated
that almost the entire transport of the mentioned characteristics from the
tropics into the middle latitudes in winter is accomplished through the
northern boundary of the monsoon region. In summer in the monsoon region
there is a loss of the moment of momentum. As a result, there is a decrease
(and toward the middle of summer a change in sign) of transport into the
middle latitudes.
The papers by T. N. Krishnamurti, et al., A. Gilchrist and W. M. Washington,
et al., were devoted to an analysis of the influence af simplifications
adopted in hydrodynamic schemes used in the modeling of monsoonal processes.
The article by Krishnamurti, et al. gives an analysis of the results of
numerical forecasts in the investigated region. Gilchrist carried out a
study of the results of modeling of the elements of monsoonal circulation
in four present-day models of general circulation of the atmosphere. The
article by Washington was devoted to an exposition of the results of exper-
iments for study of the role of the water temperature anomaly in the Indian
Ucean in modeling general circulation of the atmosphere. The problem of hy-
drodynamic modeling of the Asiatic summer monsoon was also covered in an
article by D. A. Abbott.
The collection of articles contains many papers devoted to investigation of
the elements of monsoonal circulation. Also considered are the problems in-
volved in numerical forecasting of quasistationary long waves (M. Kanamitsu)
and a description of the East African low-level jet stream (3. Findlater;
J. E. Hart). There is a discussion of the barotropic-baroclinic instability
of the mean zonal wind during the period of the summer monsoon (J. Shukla),
the evolution and phase changes of a monsoon (P. J. Webster, et al.), a de-
scription of processes in monsoonal depressions (R. V. Godbole)(F. H. Sikka),
and middle tropospheric cyclones in the summer monsoon (F. H. Carr).
An interesting article by S. GadgiZ gives a review of the results of invest-
igations of the influence of orography on the southwesterly monsoon.
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We should specially mention a paper by J. S. Winston and A. F. Krueger. It
gives an SIIa1y8iS of the radiation characteristics measured by meteorolog-
ical satellltes. The articles of R. Ananthakrishnan and B. K. Cheng are de-
voted to a synoptic-statistical description of the studied phenomenon.
Due to the great number of investigations diverse in subject matter and re-
searcti methods employed we will not dwell on a discussion of details and
comments of a particular nature. We note, however, that the high level of.
research conducted and Che breadth of the problem make the reviewed pub-
lication an important stage in the study of monsoonal circulation..
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BIRTHDAY OF GRIGORIY NIKOLAYEVICH KHMALADZE (ON HIS 75th BIRTHDAY)
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 122-123
[Ar*_icle by G. G. Svanidze and V. Sh. Tsomaya]
[Text] Grigoriy Nikolayevich Khmaladze began his work activity in his stu-
dent days as a common worker. In 1930 he worked at the Transcaucasus Hydro-
meteorological Commission as a second-class scientific specialist. During
- the years which followed he was an engineer, senior engineer, head of the
Water Inventory Bureau, and head of the Section on Study of the Hydraulic
Regime. C. N. Khmaladze always ably combined practical activity with sci-
entific research in the field of hydrometry.
3fter defense of his Candidate's dissertation in 1951 Grigoriy Nikolayevich
was invited to work, in addition to his other work, at the Georgian Inst-
- 'tute of Hydraulic Engineering and Melioration in the post of senior sci-
. antific specialist, and then as deputy head of the Section on Mining Melior-
stion, where he made mudflow investigations.
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We should mention a number of his works which have practical application.
ror example, GIDROMETRIYA I GIDROLOGIYA R. IORI (Hydrometry and Hydrology
of the Iori River) (1947) served as a basis for planning the Samgorskoye
Reservoir; GIDROLOGICHESKIYE RASCHETY PO MALYM REKAM (Hydrological Computd-
tions .Eor Small Rivers), ISPARENIYE S POVERKHNOSTI SUSHI PO TERRITORII GRUZ-
INSKOY SSR (Evaporation from the Land Surface Over the Territory of the
Georgian SSR), VODNYYE RESURSY REK KURA I ARAKS (Water Resources of the
Kura and Araks Rivers) constituted the basis of a general scheme for the
use and preservation of water resources, etc.; a number of studies were de-
voted to an investigation of the nature, conditions of formation and class-
iFication of mudflews over the territory of Georgia and Armenia.
During the period 1942-1952, at the Administration of the Hydrometeorological
- Service of the Georgian SSR, G. N. Khmaladze was the director of hydrograph-
ic reconnaissance work and the author of a number of descriptions of rivers
and also the compiler and editor of hydrological yearbooks for 1938-1951.
Beginning in 1953 G. N. Khmaladze worked at the Transcaucasian Scientific Re-
search Hydrometeorological Institute as chief of the section on hydrological
research and forecasts, and beginning in 1978, as a senior scientific spec--
ial.tst in this same section. G. N. Khmaladze has written about 200 scientific
studies devoted to the water, thermal and ice regimes of mountain rivers,
water resources, water balance investigations and river sediments of the
rivers o.E Transcaucasia. These studies are widely known in the USSR and
abro,ad and are used by planning and engineering agencies.
Devoting particu:lar attention to the development of investigations of the
sed:Lments in mountain rivers, in a number of studies G. N. Khmaladze gave
a generalization of observational data for the river.s of Transcaucasia,
the stiores of the Black Sea in the Caucasus area and the southern shores
of the Crimea and published them in a series of monographs and articles.
One of these monographs served as a basis for his doctoral dissertation,
which he defended in 1965. Tn this monograph, for the first time on the
basis of long-term observations, he analyzed a complex of problems, among
them the sediments of Armenian rivers, hydrological study of the territory,
composition and runoff of suspended sediments and mudflows. He also dealt
with the problems involved in the distribut.ion qf sediments in the channel
cross section, along the length of rivers, over a territory and in time.
Much at*_ention was devoted to water turbidity and the runoff of suspended
river sediments in dependence on natural factors. For a number of elements
tie gave practical.recommendations on their computation for unstudied rivers.
The results of these investigations are used by planning agencies in the
Armenian SSR.
Grigoriy Nikqlayevich devotes much attention to the education and training
oF young hydrologists. Over a period of 11 years he did teaching work at
Tbilis:L State University and trained many graduate students.
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G. N. Khmaladze is well known as a leading scientist, unlimited in his ded-
ication to science and loving his work. Unlimited energy, involvement and
enthusiasm, in combination with high demands on himself and his students
have earned him merited authority and respect among the hydrologists of
our country. His scientific and teaching work has repeatedly been recog-
_ nized by expressions of appreciation. He has been awarded ten government
medals and two diplomas by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet Georgian
SSR.
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AT THE USSR STATE COMMITTEE ON HYDROMETEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 p 123
[Article by V. Zakharov]
[Ab stract] An expanded session of the Board of the USSR State Committee an
Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring was held in Moscow during the
per iod 27-28 March 1979.
The oessian heard a report by the Chairman of the State Committee on Hydra-
meteurology and Environmental Monitoring Yu. A. Izrael' entitled "Basic Re--
sults of Activity During 1978 and Objectives for 1979 in Light of the Reso-
lutions of the November (1978) Plenary Session of the Central Committee
CPSU, Conclusions and Pirections Set Forth in the Addresses of the'General
_ Secretary Central Committee CPSU, Chairman of the Presidium USSR Supreme
- Soviet Comrade L. I. Brezhnev."
-s
At the beginning of his report Yu. A. Izrael' stated that by a decree of the
Presidium USSR Supreme Soviet dated 30 March 1978 the Main Administration of
the Hydrometeorological Service of the USSR Council of Ministers was trans-
Eormed into the USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental
Monit.oring and the present session for the first time was being carried out
wtthin the framework of this Committee.
Then in the report he dealt with the questions of hydrometeorological sup-
port for the national economy, monitoring of environmental contamination,
scientific research, exped itionary investigations, international scientif ic
and technical cooperation, technical development, major construction, mater-
ial-technical support, financial-economic activity, work with personnel,
work hygiene and safety. �
In conclusion Yu. A. Izrael' discussed the principal problems, including
those .following from the transformation of the Main Administration of the
Hyd rometeorological Service into the USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorology
and Environmental Monitoring. The speaker emphasized that hydrometeorological
support of the national economy remains one of' the most important problems.
Among the other problems is monitoring environmental contamination, geo-.
physical monitoring and artificial modification of ineteorological processes,
etc.
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Speaking in the discussions of the report were representatives of the Admin-
istrations of the Hydrometeorological Service, scientific research insti-
tutes, hydrometeorological technical schools, the central offices of the
USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Modeling, the
Central Committee of the Trade Union of Aviation Workers, serviced minis-
tries and departments.
Many of those speaking supplemented the speaker, telling about the work plan
and socialists obligations for 1978 implemented by the institutes which they
represent, about existing difficulties and shortcomings, and about measures
- taken for their elimiuation. The representatives of the institutes spoke of
the imperfection of the existing system for the plar_ning of scientific re- search and experimental design work, the necessity for intensifying and im-
proving the organization af research for the development of inethods used in
weather forecasting, especially long-range forecasts, and increasing the
role played by coordinating institutes in the direction of research.
In his concluding words Yu. A. Izrael' answered the questions put to him and
gave interpretations of individual communications.
With respect to the considered problem the board adopted an expanded decree.
The session participants unanimously approved a.letter addressed to the Cen-
tral Committee CYSU, Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet, USSR Council of
Ministers and General Secretary Central Committee CPSU, as well as the Chair-
man of the USSR Supreme Soviet, Comrade L. I. Brezhnev.
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CONFERENCES, MEETINGS AND SEMINARS ,
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 pp 123-128
[Article by N. A. Chernysheva, S. A. Mashkovich, G. K. Zubakin, B. A. Kogan;
V. G. Fedorey and V. V. Pokudov]
[Text'l An All-Union Con f erenc e- Seminar on the Theme: "Problems in Plotting
Hydrological Information on Technical Carriers and-its Processing Using an
Electronic Computer" was held at Obninsk during the period 13-16 March 1979.
The conPerence was attended by specialists of eight computation centers and
many tiydrometeorological observatories of the Goskomgidromet (USSR State Com-
mittee on HydromeL-eorology and Environmental Monitoring).
V. A. Semenov, who heads the State Water Inventory Data Center of the VNIIGMI-
MTsD (All-Union Scientific Research Center of Hydrometeorological Information-
_ World Data Center), presented a review report on the state of automated pro-
cessing of hydrological data and creation ot data banks for the State Water
Inventory and Survey on technical carriers. Representatives from the computa-
tion centers informed the audience about the status of punching and process- -
ing of hydrological data on a"Minsk-32" computer at the Administrations of
ttie Hydrometeorological Service which they service. In the entire network of
posts of the Goskomgidromet there is a changeover to the registry of observ- -
ational data in record books of a new design adapted fc+r punching the results
of ineasuremen*_s directly from them. The punching is accomplished primarily by ;
the specialists at hydrological and mouth stations.
During 1977-1978 programs for the processing and checking of data from observ-
ations of water level and temperature, ice thickness and depth of snow on ice,
status of water bodies and measurements of water discharges, developed at the
VNIIGrfI-MTsD, were intraduced at the computation centers. Since early 1979
tt-Le computation centers of the Goskomgi3romet have been making use af 12 kinds
of programs for the mathematical support of "Minsk-32" electronic computers
which will make it possible to proceed to automated processing, checking and
plotting on long-term carriers of all data from hydro-logical posts on the
water and ice-thermal regimes of rivers, the runoff of suspended and entrain-
ed alluvium, their granulometric composition. �
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The specialists at the VNIIGMI-MTsD have also develcped programs for produc-
inp, most of the tables in the annually published materials of the State Water
Inventory on a"Minsk-32" electronic computer, including automated computa-
tion of daily water discharges for conditions of an unambiguous dependence
of wat:er discharges on water levels.
On thF hasis of the methodological recommendations formulated by specialists
of the State Water Inventory Data Center, the VNIIGMI-MTsD and the State Hy-
drological Institute, since 1978 the hydrologists at hydrometeorological ob-
s.ervat:ories have heen carrying out preparations for the registry of data
from hydrological obs,ervations over a long-term period on a technical carrier.
Specialists of the VNIIQiI-MTsD F. F. Ivanov, G. A. Zaimskikh, G. V. Les-
nikov, M. A. Shipulin and L. I. Yakovenko familiarized the seminar partic-
ipants with algorithms and programs for the automated processing of hydro- "
logical data on a"Minsk-32" electronic computer and the collection of an-
nually pu}alished materials of the State Water Inventory.
Specialists of the VNIIGMI-MTsD, State Hydrological Institute, and also rep-
resentatives of the Goskomgidromet T. N. Chizhmakov and Yu. P. Ponomarev,
answered numerous questions.
The seminar participants were familiarized as well with methods, algorithms
and the status of development of programs for an improved system for the automated processing, storage and dissemination of data of the State Water
- Inventory on the basis of a Unified Series electronic computer.
N. A. Chernysheva
The Eleventh A11-Union Conference on Mathematical Modeling of Circulation of
the Ocean and Atmosphere was held during the period 2-12 April in Xalta.
'These conferences are regularly organized by the Leningrad Division of the
Institute of Oceanology USSR Academy of Sciences. A characteristic feature
Eor the conferences Is a broad and thorough discussion of this important
and complex problem, and also a number of related problems. Conferences
evoke great interest in the scientific community: participating in the work
of this conference were representatives of 16 scientific institutes and col-
leges (Institute of Oceanology, Institute of Physics of the Atmosphere, Com- ~
putation Center Siberian Department USSR Academy of Sciences, Computation
Center U55R Academy of Sciences, Marine Hydrophysical Institute, USSR Hydro-
meteorological Center, Main Geophysical Observatory, Arctic and Antarctic
Scientific Research Inst.itute, State Hydrological Institute, Odessa Iiydro-
meteorological Institute and others). During the conference there were also .
sessions of a seminar on geophysical hydrodynamics. A total of 38 reports
and lectures were presented.
A large group of reports were devoted to the climate problem. Here, in par-
ticu?ar, we should mention the report of Ye. P. Borisenkov, which described
some climatic models and cited evaluations, obtained on their basis, of the
sensitivity of climate and its possible changes under the influence of
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different factcrs. Particular attention was given to the modeling of the
carbon cycle in the "ocean-hiosphere" system and its influence on climate.
The second report of Ye. P. Borisenkov was devoted to the modeling of the
climatic regime oF the atmosphere and the underlying surface of Mars.
A report by D. D. Kvasov, A. P. Gal'tsov and A. S. Safray dealt with the
greenhouse effect in the atmospheres of the Earth and Venus. D. V. Chal-
ikov, D. D. TCvasov and M. Ya. Verbitskiy presented a mathematical model of a
large ice shield. The modeling of the heat regime of Antarctica, taking into
account long-period climatic variations, was discussed-by V. R. Barabash.
I. L. Karol' devoted his report to the systemic approach and modeling of
atmospheric proces.ses and illustrated this approach in the example of chem-
ical processes in the atmosphere and formation of ozone distribution.
The probl.em of modeling of climate in a system of biospheric models was dis- -
cussed by V. V. Aleksandrov, who also demonstrated motion picture films :
taken on the basis of numerical experiments on general circulation of the
atmosphere with.in the limits of a two-level model. In general, considerable
attention was devoted to investigations of general circulation of the atmo-
sphere at the conference and a number of reports were presented. V. P. Dym-
nikov and V. L. Petrov reported on a model of zonal circulation of the atmo-
sphe.re developed at the Computation Center Siberian Department USSR Academy
of Sc-Cences and presented some results of numerical experiments carried out
on th.e basis of this model. In this report great attention was devoted to
ttie probl.ems involved in parameterization of processes on a sub--grid scale
in a zotial model and interesting proposals were made relative to closing
rtte system of equations. B. Ye. Shneyerov presented information on a five-
leve:l model of general circulation of the atmosphere developed at the Main
Geophysical Observatory and abaut its use for reproducing the mean state
of the atmosphere in January. M. B. Galin and S. Ye. Kirichkov reported on
invesL-igations of general circulation of the atmosphere on the basis of a
model with few (14-component) parameters. The presented results of the coai- -
putat:Lons demonstrated the possibility of a correct description of the im-
portani characteristics of general circulation of the atmosphere within _
the framework of such relatively simple models. A comnunication by Yu. D.
Resnyanskiy was devoted to problems relating to joint circulation of the
atmosphere and ocean.
I)eFinite attention was devoted to long waves in the atmosphere: two-dimension-
al Rossby solitones were examined (V. D. Larichev, G. M. Reznik); a pa-per ~
dealt with the results of laboratory and theoretical investigation of baro-
tropic Rossby waves in a rotating annular channel (F. V. Dolzhanskiy, M. V.
Kurganskiy, Yu. L. Chernous'ko). Autooscillations and irregular regimes
in a model with few parameters were the theme of a report by F. V. Dol-
zhanskiy and L. A. Pleshanova. The report of Ye. A. Novikov was devoted
to the stor_hastic transformation and collapse of eddy systems. The author
studied the behavior of a system of four eddies and explained the conditions
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for t}ie existence of an oscillatory regime and the apgearance of a stochas-
tic process, associated with the fusing or hreakdown of eddies (collapse).
A lar�;e group of reports was devoted to problems related to the modeling of
circulation in the ocean: an integral model of the main thermocline (P. S.
Lineykin), a numerical model of wind waves (D. V. Chalikov, V. K. Makin),
a model of wind waves with few parameters (M. M. Zaslavskiy, A. Yu. Beni-
lov), a one-dimensional integral model of the active layer of the ocean
(A. I. Fel'zenbaum), a two-dimensional model of evolution of synoptic eddies
in the ocean (E. A. Mikhaylov, N. B. Shapiro), a model of inesoscale circul-
ation in the ocean (I. A. Neyekhov, V. D. Chalikov), correctness and ap-
proximate s.olutions of linear problems of dynamics of a baroclinic ocean
(24. A. Buhnov), reactions of the ocean to typhoons (G. G. Sutyrin), comput-
ation of the characteristics of the quasi-isothermic layer in the equator-
ial zone of the ocean (A. B. Polonskiy), parameterization of shelf effects
in models of oceanic tides (B. A. Kagan, V. Yu. Gotlib), modeling of large-
scale currents in the ocean (V. P. Kochergin, V. A. Sukhorukov, V. N. Kli-
mok), numerical experiments on the distribution of tracers in the world
ocean (B: A. Kagan, V. A. Ryabchenko), and others.
Several lectures were alsa presented, among which we can mention lectures
devoted to modern changes in climate and the productivity of vegetation
(G. V. Menzhulin) and a review of climatic data (K. Ya. Vinnikov).
S. A. Mashlcovich
A regional conference on investigation of ice in northwestern seas was
held in Murmansk during the period 28 February-2 March. The conference
heard and discussed more than 50 reports on-the problems relating to in-
vestigation of ice and the development of new methods for computing and
predicting ice.characteristics for supporting navigation, fishi_ng and geo-
logical exploration work, as well as the influence of the ice cover on bib-
logical processes in the ocean.
The conference was opened by the Chairman of the Murmansk Division of the
Northern Affiliate of the USSR Geographical Society, the head of the Mur-
' mansk Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service, Ya. P. Popov.
In the introducL-ory remarks, a member of the board of the Ice Section of
' the Oceanographic Commission, USSR Academy of Sciences, V. L. Tsurikov,
discussed the results of section work during the period elapsing after the
similar conference in Vladivostok (1975).
The reports presented at the conference can be classified into five main
groups corresponding to the directions in investigation of sea ice in our
country.
1. Experimental investigations. The conferees exhibiter3 particular interest
in a report by A. V. Bushuyev, N. A. Volkov and Z. M. Gudkovich (Arctic and
Antarctic Scientific Research Institute) on the problems and methods for
complex study of the ice cover of the Kara Sea. It presented an expanded
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standard program of experimental investigations of the principal laws of
therroal and dynamic processes in the ice cover, in the boundary layers of
the "ocean-ice-atmosphere" system, morphometric and physical characteris-
= tics, processes o� contamination of sea ice, propagation of river waters
and their 2nfluence on the hydrological, hydrochemical and ice regimes.
It is proposed that use be made of the scientific research icebreaker "Otto
Stimidt" as the main hase for comprehensive investigations of northwestern
seas, Z. N. Gudkovich familiarized the conferees with experience in carry-
- ing our such experiments in the Laptev Sea and the results of studies. The
results of five years of investigations of the dynamir_s of the ice cover
in the Barents Sea were covered in a series of reports presented by the
Murmansk Affiliate of the Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Insti-
- tute. .
An important direction in study of the state of the ice cover and its rheo-
= logical properties was covered in the reports of V. V. Bogorodskiy, V. P.
Gavrilo, K. K. Sukhorukova and V. A. Nikitin (Arctic and Antarctic Scien-
tific Research Institute).
- Invesrigations and field measurements of nonuniformities in the thickness
of the ice cover of Arctic seas enabled A. A. Kirillov and V. A. Spichkin
(Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute) to propose a method
for organizing observations of the thickness of sea ice at polar stations,
which caused liveJ.y interest.
Mathematical modeling and theoretical investigations of the ice cover
under the influence of perturbing forces.
A general evaluation of employed Lagrangian models of behavior of sea ice
under the inFluence af dynamic and thermal factors and the prospects for the
developmenr_ of this direction were given in a report by S. N. Ovsiyenko and
V. 0. Efroimson (USSR Hydrometeorological Center). The investigations of
D. Ye. Kheysin and M. I. Maslovskiy (Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Re-
search Institute) revealed earlier unknown inertial oscillations of the
velocity vector of ice drift. The model computations presented by the auth-
ors convinr_ingly demonstrate the presence of the noted phenomenon.
The mathEmatical modeling of ice redistribution during the summer period
was the subject of a report by I. L. Appel' and Z. M. Gudkovich (Arctic and
Antarctic Scier_tific Research Institute). The model uses a combination of
hydrodynamic and statistical methods making possible its use for long-range
forecasting. Some prablems in the theory of nonstationary drift of sea ice
we-re solved in a report by G. K. Zubakin and V. R. Potapov (Murmansk Affil-
iate Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute). A communication
by V. Ye. Lagun and V. F. Romanov (Leningrad State University, Arctic and
Antarctic Scientific Research Institute) proposed a parametric system de-
scribing the boundary layers of the ocean and the atmosphere interacting
with the ice. There was-a discussion of the possibilities of using the sys-
tem in models of global circulation of the atmosphere and ocean and in
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problems of dynamics of the ice cover. The results of theoretical investiga-
tions of os.cillattons of the ice cover in the presence of perturbing forces
of di.Eferent nature were reported by representatives of the Marine Hydrophys-
ical Institute Ukrainian Academy of Sciences (A. M. Suvorov, L. V. Cherkesov
and A. Ye. Bukatov).
3. The use of numerical methods for computations and predictions of state
of the ice cover.
The putting of mathematical models of the redistribution of ice cover in
seas into practical use in prediction and computation schemes is a very im-
portant and compTex problem. Its importance is obvious since existing phys-
ical-statistical methods do not always afford a possibility for predicting
many elements of state of the ice cover under the influence of dynamic and
thermal factors. It is a complex problem due to the frequent absence of in-
itial parameters, reliable meteorological forecasting, high-speed electronic
computers capable of ensuring routine work, etc.
Despite the difficulties, during recent years such methods have been gradual-
ly introduced into the practice of servicing of Arctic navigation. In a re-
port on this problem I. L. Appel', Z. M. Gudkovich and V. P. Karklin (Arctic
and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute) examined a scheme for predict-
ing tYie distrihution of ice in the southwestern part of the Kara Sea for a
week in advance, which was used during 1977-1978 for operations in the Kara
Sea.
A method for the short-range forecasting of ice compression in the southwest-
ern part of the Kara Sea for ensuring navigation operations in the Kara Sea
was presented in a report by a group headed by L. A. Timokhov (Arctic and
Antarctic Scientific Research Institute).
A numerical model and scheme for prediction of the compression and thinning
of the ice cover, the position of the ice edge and boundaries of-ice of dif-
ferent continuity for the Barents Sea (G. K. Zubakin, L. N. Zuyev, Murmansk
Affiliate Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute) were used in
construction of a prognostic ice map using an electronic computer. All the
enumerated forecasting elements were fed out in mapped form using a drafting
machine. Then, using a facsimile machine, the prognostic map is transmitted
to interesi:ed organizations. According to the results of 1978, the probable
success of the forecasts averages 80%.
It should be emphasized that the use of the above forecasting methods was dic-
tated by the practical needs for ensuring year-round navigation in the
western sector of the Arctic. .
A report by I. Ye. Frolo.v, T. M. Moskal' and I. F. Romantsov (Arctic and Ant-
arctic Scientific Research Institute), entitled "Mathematical Model of Autumn-
Winter Ice Phenomena and the Results of its Testing in the Barents and Kara
Seas," was of great interest to professional forecasters. The computations will
probably reflect the state of the ice cover in the winter of 1979.
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4. The use of physical-statistical methods in investigations and prediction
of processes of a large-scale nature.
_ A. A. Lebedev (Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute) reported
on the correlation between ice processes in the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans.
The determined qualitative and quantitative relationships between different
hydrometeorological factors and ice enabled the author to clarify some phys-
_ ical mechanisms of the processes of different time scales.
The reports of B. A. Kogan, V. I. Turchaninov and A. A. Kosolapov (Murmansk
Affiliate Arctic and Antarctic Scientiric Research Institute) were devoted
to investigations of the position of the ice edge in the Labrador Sea and
ttie possibility of its long-range forecasting during the winter period. The
results obtained and the high probahle success of the forecasts (80-90%)
make it possible to introduce the proposed methods into practical forecast-
ing work.
0. I. Sheremetevskaya reported on study of the statistical structure of the
times of first appearance of ice in the Barents, White and Baltic Seas at
the USSR Hydrometeorological Center. The results o� the investigation are
~ a prei�equisite for background long-range prediction of the phases of autumn
ice plietiomena in the sPas of the European USSR. The reports of V. N. Kupet-
skiy and J. A. Kalesnik (Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute,
Northwestarn Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service) were of def-
inite interest. They were devoted to the use of homologues of solar activity
in an investigation of ice processes and clima.te of the Baltic, Barents,
Greenland and Kara Seas. The problems involved in the long-range prediction
of ice content of the Barents Sea on the basis of the change in some dynamic
characteristics of the sea were examined in a report by V. Sh. Sagdeyev and
- V. A. Potanin (Murmansk Affiliate Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research
institute). 5. Practical investigations relating to the state of the ice cover.
Ya, L. kostykov (Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service of the
Latvian SSR) reported on the variability of conditions for navigation in
the ice in the Gulf of Riga and the possibilities of predicting extremal
conditions. Tn a report by V. L. Ivanov and V. A. Zalitskiy (Sevmorgeo
Trust), entitled "Hydrometeorological Servicing of Reconnaissance Work
Abroad,"- desires and comments were expressed concerning similar servicing
in our country.
The role of ice conditions in the formation of populations of the ringed
seal in the White Sea and in the southeastern part of the Bering Sea was
noted iri a report by L. R. Lukin (Northern Administration of the Hydrometeor-
ological Service). The conferees devoted much attention to a report by I.
A. Mel'nikov (Institute of Oceanology) concerning experimental investiga-
tions of ecosystems on the "SP" drifting stations.
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At the conference reports were also presented by K. G. Konstantinov and V.
P. Sorokin (Potar Scientific Research Institute of Fishing and Oceanography),
V. L. Tsurikov (State Oceanograptiic Institute), A. V. Bushuyev and Yu. D.
Bychenkov (Arctic and Antarcttc Scientific Research Ins.titute), Ya. P. Popov
and B. D. Popov (Murmansk Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service)
and others.
G. K. Zubakin and B. A. Kogan
The Fourth Symposiinn on Joint Study of the Kuroshio (JSK) was held in Tokio
during the period 14-17 Feliruary. JSK programs carried out since 1965 were
summarized.
The symposium was attended by about 80 scientists from Australia, Chinese
People's. Repuhlic, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand,
New Guinea, New Caledonia, Philippines, Thailand, Hong Kong, USSR, United
States and Japan. More than 70 reports were presented. The USSR delegation
(delegation headed by V. G. Fedorey) was represented by 10 reports, of
which eight were presented during the work of the symgosium.
The symposium was opened by Prof. A. I. Takenouti, who greeted the partic-
ipants and wished them success in their work.
After opening of the symposium three leading scientists from Japan, USSR
and the Philippines presented generalizing lectures before all the sympo-
aaium participants: Professor Ken Sugawara presented a review of activity of
the JSK in the field of iiivestigations of sea contamination, Professor 0.
Mamayev reported on the structure of waters in the Sea of Japan, and
Doctor Inocenzio 12onquillo presented a review of attainments of the JSK in
the field of investigations of the state of fish reserves.
A11 the remaining work of the symposium was carried out in sections in which
a11 the reports on the same subjects were combined and discussed. Eight sec-
tions operated. �
:l. Dynamics of the Kuroshio 13 reports;
2. Descriptive and fishing oceanography 11;
3. Marine geochemistry 5;
4. Env:Lronmental quality 10;
5. Biology and biochemistry 11;
Ei. Biological productivity and living resources 13;
1. Interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere S;
8. Marine geology 7.
In all the presented reports the variability of phenomena and p.rocesses was
examined on broad time and space scales. In some studies there was an invest-
igation of the entire Pacific Ocean, whereas in others only the coastal
regions. The time scale took in periods from 100 days to several days.
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Five reports were devoted to large water circulations and eddies. There
was a discussion of the anomalous development of one of the quasi-station-
ary cyclonic curvatures of the Kuroshio to the south of Honshu.
The reports presented on the subject of marine geochemistry demonstrated
rhe recent attainments in this field. There was a discussion of problems
relating to heavy metals, organic carbon and its varieties, and also chlor-
inated hydrocarbonates and petroleum. .
Biological problems we.re reflected in 24 reports of the fifth and sixth sec-
tions. Investigations of benthos, corals, zoo- and phytoplankton of the
waters of the Kuroshio and adjacent regions were presented.
Materi.als revealin.g the reasons for the rapid increase in the population
of Japanese sardine since 1970 were important from the practical point of
view.
Reports pertaining to living species of fish and the fish industry as a
whole were also interesting. Scientists have concluded that the data col-
lected at the present time do not explain the annual fluctuations either
in the environment or in the supplies of fish, but such investigations must
be encouraged for the purpose of a better understanding of the "status of
the modern fishing industry."
In the section "Interaction Between the Ocean and the Atmosphere" a study
was made of a number of problems having prognostic importance: the influ-
ence of the Kuroshio on Iocal characteristics of precipitation in the
Philippicies, the possible depPndence of ineandering of the Kuroshio on
solar activity, the influence of typhoons on the Kuroshio and the relation-
ship between the intensity of the Kuroshio and wind fields over the ocean
near the Hawaiian Islands.
In the implementation of the JSK program considerable progress has been
attained in the understanding of the marine geology and geophysics of the
western part of the Pacific Ocean. The presented reports examined the re-
sults of recent years, mentioned unsolved problems and gave practical recom-
mer_dations on the future.
In general, I would like to note that in connection with the proposed dis-
r_lissions of the "WESTPAC" program, at the.fourth symposium great attention
was devoted to recommendations on scientific research for the future. The
scientists of the countries participating in the JSK program unanimously
came to the conclusion tnat during the 13 years of existence of the program
much material had been accumulated and they are leading to a better under-
standing of many aspects of the Kuroshio and the Pacific Ocean as a whole, .
but the breadth and complexity of the ocean are so great that our "lcnow-
"ledge of it is nevertheless very limited. Therefore, in the future there
must be more concentrated actions by an exchange of ideas, methods, data
and other necessary information among the countries of this region" (from
a summary of sympositnn materials).
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NOTES FROM ABROAD
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 7, Jul 79 p 128
[Article by V. I. Silkin]
[Text] As reported in NATURE,.Vol 274, No 5671, p 580, 1978, in the implement-
ation of the program for the International Decade for Study of the Ocean
scientists of the United States and Japan carried out a joint analysis of
the totality of data describing the Kuroshio Current. Among these data are
the communications of the Japanese Agency for the Safety of Navigation,
cover.ing,two-week time intervals, regular results of ineasurements of cur-
rent velocity and water temperature in it, carried out by weather ships at
depths of 0,. 100 and 200 m, and other materials of the Japanese Meteorolog-
ical Agency and the Hydrographic Administration.
As early as 1870 it was noted that the Kuroshio, usually flowing parallel
to the eastern shore of Honshu Island, sometimes in the region of Cape
Misaki forms a major meander (curvature) reaching as far as 30�N. Now this
has been confirmed by observations carried out at a modern scientific level.
It is particularly easy to trace the processes of formation of three mean-
ders arising under definite conditions during the period between 1934 and
1963.
The easily traced process of formation of a meander in 1977 had interesting
peculiarities. Even in the second half of February it was situated in the
usual region for the appearance of ineanders, to the west of the underwater
Idzu-Ogasawara Ridge. However, in mid-May the curved flow began to be drawn
out in the direction SSE of Cape Misaki. At the end of the month an annular
current or ring was separated from it and subsequently existed independently.
The Kuroshio meander corresponding to this ring began to contr,act and by
July merged with the main channel of this current. A month later the ring
also virtually ceased to exist, rejoining the main flow of the Kuroshio.
The only remaining trace of its existence was a large meander situated to
the west of the site of initial ring generation.
Comparison with similar processes observed earlier in the Gulf Stream re-
vealed the following difference. The rings arising in the Atlantic Ocean
had a tendency then to move in an eastward direction, whereas the Kuroshio
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rings were characterized by movement to the west. The hydrologists concerned
with theory musc propose a sound explanation for such a difference.
COPYRIGHT: "Meteorologiya i gidrologiya," 1979
[10-5303]
5303 -END-
CSO: 1864
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