JPRS ID: 8629 NEAR EAST/NORTH AFRICA REPORT

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APPROVE~ FOR RELEASE= 2007/02/08= CIA-R~P82-OOSSORO00'100080030-9 2i ~ ~ ~ - i OF i APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 rUR Uf ~IC~in~. usr, oNi.v JPRS L/8629 21 August 1979 Near E ast North Af rica Re ort p cFOUO s2i~9~ FB9S FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE FOR OFFiCiAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 NOTE JPRS publicaCions conCain informaCion primarily from foreign newspapers, p~riodicals and books, but also frmm ~ews agency tranamissiona and broadcagCs, Materials from �oreign-language sources are Cranslated; those from Englieh-l~nguage sources are transcribed or reprinCed, with the original phrasing and other characCeriaCics reCained. Headlines, editorial reporCs, and material enclosed in brackets are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicaCors such as [TextJ or [ExcerptJ in the Eirse line o� each irem, or following the last line of a brie�, indicaCe how Che original information was processed. Where no processing indicator is given, Che infor- ' mation was summarized or extracted. Unfamili~r names rendered phonetically or eransliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the original but have been supplied as appropriate in context. Other unattribuCed parenthetical notes within the body of an item originate wiCh the source. Times within 3tems are as given by source. The contents of this publication in no way represent the poli- cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government. For further informaCion on reporC contenr , call (703) 351-2833 (Near ~ast); 351-25^vi - (Iran, AfghanisCan); 351-3165 (North Africa). COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCEJ HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE OvI.Y. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ,JpRS L/8629 ~ 21. Auguet 1.979 NEAR EAST/NORtH AFRICA REPORT (~'OVO 32/79) ~ CONTENTS PAGE ~ Iran Seen on Verge of Collapse (Jean Larteguy; PARIS-MATCH~ 27 Jul 79) 1 LIBYA Labor Migration Sustaine Dualistic Development (J.S. Birke, C.A. 5inclair; THE MAGHREB REVIEW, rsay-Jun 79) 9 MAURITANIA - Nation Still in Coafuaion One Year After Ould Daddah's Fall (Abdelaziz Dahmani; JEUNE AFRIQUE, 18 Jul 79)............ 18 Nation Said To Be Sub~ect to Any Upheaval (Said Ould Khelifa; AFRIQUE-ASIE, 25 Jun-8 Jul 79)....... 21 Premier Attempting To R~esolve Economic Problems . (MARCFiES TROPICAtJX ET I~DITERRANEENS, 6 Jul 79).......... 24 Briefe Chineae Physiciane Demand Salary Increase 26 Co~issariat f~r Food Aid Established 26 WESTERN SAHAR~, Briefa POLISARIO Preaka Truce 27 YF.I~N ARAB REPUBLIC ariefe Saudi Develo~~nt Fund 28 - a- (III - NE & A- 121 FOUO] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 ~~Olt O~I~'ICIAI, USE ONLY TRAN IItAN SEEN ON VERG~ OF COLLAPSF Paris PARIS-MATCH in French 27 Ju1 79 pp 36-44 [Article by novelist and reporter JeAn Larteguy] [TexC] A well-known novellst as well as a great ~ournalist, Jean Larteguy has been shuttling back and forth across the Middle East. His wanderings have taken him from Cairo to Tehran, via martyred Lebanon and a Syria racked ~y an Islamic crisis. Never has this volatile regi,,n looked so much like a cauldron simmering wiL�h the demons of war. It is here that the fate of oil-dependent Europe is being decided. It is along these borders that the two superpowers have traced blurred fronLiers whicl~. the other must not cros~. This week we publish the first in-depth report from Jean _ Larteguy on the shakiest of the region's nations, . Iran, which obviously cannoC long survive the ruinous follies of Imam Khomeyni, who rules there, answerable only to God. Six months have passed since the Pahlavi dynasty was overthrown by Iman Khomeyni's Islamic revolution. This half-year has brought defeat for the shah, who strove to go too far too quickly. It looks very much like defeat for Khomeyni and his mullahs, as well. You cannot change the temperament of a peopxe in 20 years, any more than you can transport them back a century in the space oi a few months. Khomeyni and his supporters managed to ~opple a frightened monarch unsure of himself, but they have shown themselves to be incapable of governing. There you have the roots of the tragedy Iran is going through today, and which may well mean its final end. Wherever I went T found disenchantment, and fear of what the future may bring. Not much is left of thP heady exaltation of those days in January. Everywhere I:^+md confusion and disarray. Nobody knows who is in charge, or who is to obey. 1 FOR OFFICIAI. USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 i~OR OT'~'ICIAL USE ONLY Tehrsn was always an ugly city, n soulless p].ace, but I had not expected to �ind it so gloomy, with ita frozen cranes poised over buildings th~t will never be finiahed, with excavationa that wi11 never be ~111ed in, ite Cheatere charred by arson, ite shaps gutted because they belonged to Jewe who sold alcohol or gaudy Crinketis. The hotels are deaerted: They aerve nothing but Coc~-Cola and wretched food, and even eo peop7.e speak in under- tonea, as if the Shah's secret police, the SAVAK, were still lurking Chere. to listen. I took a taxi up Che Avenue Shah Rezah, now known as the Avenue Mosaddeq, the equivalene of our Champa Elyaeea. IC was 1030 of a Friday evening-- rather like a Sunday evening in Paris. On either side of the etreet, troopa o� the Guardi~ns of the kevolution were sniping at each o~her with pistols and aubmachineguns. Other groups could be seen higher up, in combat fatigues, ready to take a hand in the fighting. Automobiles, to escape stray bulleta, were driving full speed ahead and crashing inCo one another. - The air was filled with hooting horns and the sound of crumpling fenders. Every night one can watch ~hootouts between rival gangs encroac:~ing on somebody else:'s turf; every night, houaea are searched for enemies of the revolution, f'or SAVAK agents, or for weapons, and when none of theae are found, they c:arry off the carpets or the furniture as consolation prizes. From myatericius cars, equally mysterious commandos use militia barricadea for target practice. They have shc~t three prostitutes on charges of operat3ng a callgirl system for foreigne~ics. Poor girls! I wonder witere in the world they could have found any cu;stomers! A man who imported pornographic books and films was executed along with them. He had an ArmPnian name, Begherian, and they took that as a pretest to call him a Zionist agent, although the charges against him were of the flimsiest. - One need on].y take an evening stroll through the southern quarter to stumble upc~r~ the latter-day equivalent of the Cour des Miracles: Sodom and Gomorrht~; the hardest drugs openly on sale: Heroin and cocaine, not , to mention apium. Reportedly, there are two million drug addicts in the Province of Tehran alone. The Koran, however, proscribes only alcohol. _ Nobody believes in the Islamic revolution any more. You see fewer and fewer chadors. If you make a little fuss, they will serve you vodka in certain restauranta. The Guardians of the Revolution offer you cases of whiskey at pric.~s that are still prohibitive, which proves conclusively tha~ not all the bot:tles were broken. "If Kho~neyni and his ayatollahs remain in power 3ust one more year, Iran would cease to exist. Delivered over to anarchy, with no army, no police, no centra~ gover~ent, it would swiftly lose its outlying provinces: . Azerbai~an a nd Kurdestan to the north, Guilan and the Turkoman steppes on ~ the Caspian, Khuzestan and its oil to the south, along with Belukestan, s41e access to the sea for a Sovietized Afghanistan. No matter what the reltgious zealots may think, they can't do what they did in Cambodia, and 2 FOR OFFICIE~I. USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 , ~'OR OFF'IC]'AL USE ONLY pack the city-dwellers oue ~.nCo the country to gu bnck ta u~ub~ust~nce economy when we don'C even have enough to f~ed ourselves ~ir~y mur~. Much leas do so after the people hnve tas~ed~ ~ven in ir.~ delixl.uu~, e consumer socieCy which was not al,together repugnent to averybody, pAreicularly to the workere who profitied by iC." The man who apoke Co ine in auch a voice of d~.sillusionmen~ has been one o~ Mosaddeq'e closes~ asyoc~.nCes, a leader of Che National Front. He had experienced prieon ~nd ex~.le. He was a practicing Mus~.im, but he felt thaC religion, while At times it wight inspire policy, certainly ought not Co make it. An engineer who was my guide in KhuzesCan had much the sam~ sort of thing _ _ to say: "If Khomeyni and Semoll~h hang onto power for ;Just n few months, wasCing their time applying the law of the Koran ~o a peo~le thaC has, after all, emerged from the Middle Ages, we shall slide inCo c~tastrophe. It w.i.ll be like 1942, when we waCched Iran carved into two sphere~ of. influence: The north going to the Russians with ita natural ga5 �iel~i:~, and th~ south to Che Americans with its oilfields, with puppet gover~vn~nts as their paid agents. Iran had Ueen reunified by Shah Reza Khan, ~ather of Che present shah, around his person and his army. His son, c~fter some hesitation, followed in his footsteps. The ehah is gone; the army no longer exi~Cs, and Iran is back to its ancient tribal and ethnic quaxr~ls. Ie is going to explode, and iCs explosion will incite such covetousness azound it that a third world war may we11 break out." I heard much the same thing from leaders of Arab or ICurdish minorities: "If Khomeyni does not understand our legitimate aspiraCion~ to autonomy, we sha11 seize our independence by force. If he remains obsCinate, he wi11 lose Iran, and we shall lose everything." The rial, Iran's currency, is sinking on every market. tt has lost half its value. Workers and government officials are still being pald for doing nothing, and even given raises. The merchants in the bazaars know that this ~oke cannot last long, and that i~ may well be they who are stuck with the bi11. And yet they were the stoutest supporters of the "revolution." The middle class is scared, the technocrats are weeping over the goad old days, and labor is restive. Nobody even knows who holds powe�r. Officially, it is the Bazargan government, now sitting in Tehran. But that gover~unent is purely a pro forma outfit. Bazargan, an honest and learned man, repreaents ~ nothing buC himself and a political class with no grass rQOts. He exists - only because the old man in Qom tolerates him. He goes along with Khomeyni's _ every wh3m. He resigns every morning, and withdraws his resignation every evening. It is the Imam Khomeyni wh~, in the shadows of the holy mosque at Qom, makes all the decisions, who rules on everyChing, advised by a~ecret committee consisting of a ma~ority of ayatollahs and doctors of the law whose average age is around 75, all of them extremists living in another era. The imam gets bogged down in niggling detail, like deciding what sort of clothing - women must wear when they go swimming in~the Caspian Sea, but pays no attention to the one essential: A country that is falling to pieces in his bony fingers. 3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 FOR OFF~CIAL USE ONLY Leaderlesa Army - Of a11 the ayatollaha he was the least open-minded, the least educated~ He was far behind men l~.ke Talegani, Milani, or Shar'iarm~dari except for the aize of his following. He learned noChing, came Co understand nothing, in the yeara of his exile. A.11 he wanted was to get even with Che Iranian monarchy, which he called a usurpation that had lasted 2,500 years. He was; though, the most stubborn, the most determined, the moat intractable of them a11, and he was the one people followed. The third government ia in the streets, and obeys neither Bazargan nor Khomeyni. Most of iC ia lslamic, but there are parts of it that are Marxiat fiefs. Marxist, be it noted, ia a term that includes both the old-line Tudeh communiat, who are discreet, and the le�tists, who are by no means so. They would like to go evsn deeper into ferment and sett~jing grudges, really to mgke this revolution that has thus far only been roughly sketched out. CondiCions were ripe for a successful military coup that would restore order to this rabble and keep Che lefCists and the Islamists from coming to blowa. There was no longer any real shooting war and, even while there was one, in the distant provinces, it had lost its leaders. ~en so, I searched, and i found nothing but stores of abandoned weapone and material. Lined up close to the azure domes of Esfahan, in carefully aerried ranks, each one pinned onto its pad like monatrous bugs in an entomology collection, dead as if they had been pickled in formaldehyde, doomed never again to . take to the air, I found hundreds of the moat modern helicoptera in the world, truly fabulous machines. They were the shah's pride and ~oy, and he had paid billions of dollars for them. There ie no other unit in the world to be compared with this one, except the U.S. lst Cavalry Division, which Congress found too expensive. The shah, though, thought that nothing was too good for his "Sky Cavalry Brigade." All sizes of aircraft, from the shark-sleek Cobras with their rapid-fire guns to those fighting machines known as AHIGs, with their remote-controlled missiles, which cost so much that the shah had to pay the U.S. designers out of his own pocket. Huge, fat-bellied carriers, to transport 155-mm howitzers, heavy tanks, and an intervention section of 30 men with weapons and equipment several hur.dred kilometers from their bases. This helicopter brigade was not merely a toy for its master to play with: It was the tool of his policy of grandeur, the supreme weapon of the guardian of the gulf and all its wealth. The copter-borne commandos of the brigade controlled the straits of Hormuz and its conveyor-belt for supertankers on the tiny island of Abu Mussa. They had intervened victoriously against the communist rebels in the Dhofar. Iraq, with its broad, open plains, dared not risk its obsolete tanks against such monaters. The Iraqi bowed, and the shah had helped them to put down the very Kurdish rebellion he had ~ himself fomented. Kuwait, the Emirates, and even Saudi Arabia had to put up with the moods and ambitions of the man who claimed to be the heir of 4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 F'OIt OFFICZAL USE ONLY ~ - Cyrus and Darius, Che k~.ng of kiiigs, whose sword ru:~t,+ tiow 1.r~ the sand~ o~ ~ Esfahan. For the pnse 6 months, ever eince ~he U.S. technicians wl~o ~.~sed to maintain them left Irgn, r,ot one helic;opCer ~a~ Caken to the air, n~t ona blade hse turned. The pitilese winde, rhe eand, and the schorch�ing eun have eaten i away at theae magnificent mgchines. There sre now merely empty carcas~es, ~ust capable of crsaking along in the last parade o� a phantom army. I~o More Fuel, No More Radar , Some 30 U. S. experts reportedly came secretly ~ back to l;s~at~an, ~~nd found nothing to reporC but disasCer. No more than 2 percent ot the equipwent was worth salvaging. I asked around: "Where are rhe pilots? The mechanics? There used to he thousand~ c~f them, ~ competent men, trained at great expenae in the United Sl�aCes, and well paid?" People shrugged: "Ratsl" They're gone. Some of them went home, others go~ j.nto trouble and are in prison. Still others were kicked out of the arn~y. The mechanics have found 3obs that 1et them hide in the garages. 'rhe sold:[ers' and non-coms' commitrees can't get such machines as these to oDeraCe w~~tyour their officers. Some of them tried, and they fell flat on their Eaces. No more spare parts, no more fuel, the radar systems and the con~ral towers don't work any more. Since the shah left, nobody has touched a. ~t~ing. There was no sabotage, no destruction: Everybody simply walked off and le�t. You can see how neat everything is, but it's not good for anythitig but scra~. When it came to the outskirts of Mahabad, ca~ital of :trani~in Ktirdistan, there was a kind of market set up at the foot of a hi11. Si.nce a lot of gunfire seemed to came from there, I thought there was a fight going on, and I went closer to see. All they were doing was sell:ln~; weapons. Every would-be purchaser, before making his cho3ce, would try a weapon by shootii~ at a row of tin cans that had been set up as Cargeta against the nearby cliff. There were Kurds in huge, baggy breeches with festoons of carCridge belts over their shoulders, fierce moustaches, and silk scarves wound round their heads, sitting on packing cases and offering fellow-Kurds their choice of complete assortments of weapons and ammunition. There were pistols, rifles, and automatic rifles, mainly U.S.-made and acquired from the shah's army. And there were some brand-new Kalashnikhovs 3ust out of their cases, still thick with grease, that had arrived that very day. And the prices would stop any competition cold in its tracks: For a few thousand riai, a few hundred francs, you could turn yourself into a walking arsenal, with revolvers, assault rifles with five clips, and your choice of grenades. 5 FOR OFFICIAL USE 0'rTLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY "If you're shopping, we'va got assault tanks, too," offered Ghassen Lou, the leader of the Kurdiah Democra~ic Movement, in impeccable ~rench. Sentenced to death by the ahah, he managed to get away, and surfaced later as a professor ; at Vincennes Univeraity. "Genuine ChiefCaina~ we have," he went on. "Excellent Britiah-made atuff. We also have a few cannon, aome heavy mortars, eome machinegune and Cons of ammunition. You can find anything in the camp on the other aide of Mahabad, where there used to be ~n armored brigade. The officers left first, then the troopa, and they lefC ua a11 this stuff. We know what to do with ~t. , Kurdistan is, for all practica3. purposea, 3ndependenC. People drink wine , her e. Nowhere will you see a picture of Khomeyni, and the only bearded ayatollah I saw, taped to a shop-window, was Karl Marx. , Kurdestxn and a few other outlying provinces, taking advanCage of the power vacuum, are demanding autonomy, u:rging that Iran be made a federal republic. "We Kurds," Qasemlu went on to explain, "have an unfortunate habit of asking for too much and geCting nothing. This time, we are determined to be reasonable, and ask only a little bit so as to get a whole lot," bursting into laughter as he concluded. "We are demanding sutonomy, whereas we are already independent." There is nothing left of the Iranian army except for a few unita strung out in Reza'iyeh, Piranshahr and Shapur, along the Turko-Iran3an border. It still has some tanks that can move and some he~icopters flying. But the off icers, suspected of having served the shah and still being secretly loyal to him, are no longer obeyed by the troops, who have formed committees. Some leaders still manage to maiYitain a semblance of authority. They owe what succeas they have only to their personal prestige, or to having given . themselves over totally to the demagoguery in etyle at the moment. There are some units still capable of mounting active intervention for maybe 24 hours. Against guerrilla fighters as well trained and well armed as the Kurds a.re today, and as the Khuzestani Arabs will be tomorrow, if the war were to ~ast any longer than that, they would simply melt away. The army is paying for the shah's military policy. Fearful of military coups, he chose military leaders who were mere courtiers, and have suddenly disappeared from the scene. Amateurs Slaughtering Each Other There are two picturesque charactprs involved in this, more gang leaders than generals, not at all above dealing with their troops as if they were mer- cenaYies: In the south, there is Vice Admiral Madani, who believes he can count on the Gulf Fleet and the Navy commandos--between 5,000 and 6,OOO:mEn. 6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 ~o~: o~rxcraL us~; om,x ; Tn Tehran Chere iy General Rahl.mi, who he~da L�h~ ml.1.1G~~.ry ~~u:LJ.r.e au~i canuuanda 6,000 to 7,000 nien, many ut them veterau~ of sliuclr-tru~>~~ ~~:~l,t.N. Hec~u~e he had clashed with the soldier~' commiCCee.i, he war~ r~~~r+.l ~~~cl by Yr:ime Minister Bnzargan, who quickly perceived him as a~or_~nCiraL r.ival. liowever, Im~n Khomeyni resCored him to hie command on lea~x~ing ot th~~ matter and beginning to d3scover Che importance of having an army r_h~~t: obeys its le~dere. Neither Madani nor Rahimi, though, witti the c:oup:L~ of handfuly of - men who wi11 fol.low thetn, ttnd over-dependenC on the m~.:l.la1~~3, c~n. hop~ to seize power, although there are those who s~y both oE t.h~an~ ar~ l�.hinking about it. The same applies to the gendarmes (naCional const~bu:l~lry; ac~> tr~ the r~xmy: They are nowhere ta be seen. Acting in their plsce t~r~: ~_or~ami.ttee~ which, according to the region in which they operate, are macic~. ~~k~ c~F Muslims, leftists, or autonomists. The gendarmerie's mission wF~~, t:o puC down s~eparatist movemenCs and keep the tribes in ht~nd. 7L- ~.s c{tzJ.te incapab7.e of performing that mission and is trying, by lettin~ peap.~e l~or~,et nboul- iC~ to wangle a pardon for hn,ving too zealously and bruLal.ly ~c:i.tormed the taeka assigned it. - The police! The way to spot a policeman is to watch 1-~~.~n run away when an accident occurs. Iran, in Chis month of July, is a shJ.p ~~drlf t. At the helm is a stubborn old man, squinring at the Koran to tlnd t?is course, ignoring such inventions of the devil as maps, charts, or c:om~~asse:~. His crew: Army, police, gendarmerie, civil servants, have van:Lshed, their places taken by amateurs from the militia, by committees wlio ci~ whatever they feel like doing, and who sometimes kill one anoCher over ~;c~r.cli.ci personaJ. interesCs. The terrified passengers huddle in their cab~_ns, as the cont:rary winds drive the ship onto the reefs. The scavenging w.reckf.rs have lit great bonfires on the beach, waiting for the ship to break apart so that they can divide up Che plunder. _ Only a miracle can save her. Only a competent, able man, ~ man unrained with the stink of o:Ll like the shah, who is not God's fool 13ke lmaxn IChomyni, could take the helm, get the crew back to duty statior~:~, and pack the militia and the committees down into the hold. But where is th1.s ~nari to be found? Where will he come from? Shahpur Bakhtiar could ha~re done it. But, because he underestimated Islam and because he tried to ~pply the laws of the constitution, because he was too Western, he was sent back ro his tribe. Sha11 we see him again, riding at the head of a troop of Iiakhtiar horsemen? Reza Khan managed to take over Iran with one brigade c~f Cossacks. Thoee days, though, are gone forever. After long hesitation, the Russiatis have at last decided tu intervene, playing both sides very cleverly against each oCher, the separatist movements they encourage and arm, using various intermediaries ~uch as t3~~: Palestinians in the South; and the army, which they are helping to fa17, apart through the soldiers' and non-coms' co~ittees. And all the while r.h~y reassure the officers, praising their nationalist sentiments, their love of order and discipline. Khomeyni has finally extended amnesty to al.l who served the shah. 7 FOR OFFTCIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 ~OR OFFZCIAL USE ONLY The Tudeh communisCa, merely a conveyor-belt from the Kremlln, offer infiniCely mnre ro that army: ltehabilitation, a chance to ~ake over the government, to ~ettle Cheir grudgeg againet the prieate and the le�tis~s, on condition, of course--the Ruesiane will see to Chat--Chati they faithfully ' play Moacow'e game. Just like A�ghanistan, the Americans think. This time, though, the Americans have made up their minda not to let the Rusaiana havs it all their own wuy, and, i� the army slipe away from them, they will concentrate fu11 pressure on the priesta, and never mind how many sins the mullahs have charged them wiCh. Events will force thzm to ~oin ay a111ea. The Americans are caming back on litCle cat feet; they are being discreet; they will awallow any insults, but Chen, what would one not do for a f ew mi111on barrels of oil? ' The moeques have been transformed into weapons depots by the Islamic militia. CommunisCs and leftiaCs have turned the universities into bristling arsenals. In Tehran alone, 300,000 guns of all calibers are lying there, , waiting to be used. A11 is in readiness for civil war. COPYRIGHT 1979 par Cogedipresse S.A. 6182 CSO: 4900 8 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 ~'OR OT~'FTCZAL US~ ONLY ` ~,Z~YA L~BOR MIGRATTON SUSTAINS DUALISTIC DEVE~,OPMCNT ' London THE MA~GHREB R~VIE4d in English May-Jwn 79 pp 95-~02 ~Art3cl.e by J.S. Birks and C. A. Sinclai~ ~e~, - . . . . _ . . - Intrucluction The popular tendency to regard thc Libyan Arab Jamahiriya as unique is not justificd; examination of tl~e Libyan economy shows it to be similar to the otl~cr Arab capital rich oil exporting states, and as having experienced an almost identical pattern of devel~,pment to that of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In commor~ witli othcr major oil exportcrs, Libya has been througl~ a transformation of economy and society (First, 1974). The pace of change can be illustrated by the increasc in estimated per capita income, ln the early 1950s, when Libya was judged by the World Bank to'be one of the poorest nations in the world, per capila income ~vas estimated at $40. A significant contribution was made at that time to Libya's foreign exchange earnings by exports of esparto grass and exports of scrap metal - collected World War II wrecks - so low were other foreign exchan~e earning capacities. By 1977 per capi~a income had exceeded $6,000, placing Libya as fourth wealthiest of the Arab oil exporters in per capita ternis (World Bank, 1978). This profound change in Libya's circumstances has posed for Libyan planners almost identical problems to those faced in other oil expo~ting states of the Arab world (Mallakh, 1979). Of especial importance is tlie resolving of tensions within society, and contradictory aims in social and economic policy. The trnnsformecl economy Oil was 6rst shipned from Libya in 1961. By 1968, Libyan exports of oil had risen to 7 per cent of the World's total, a levcl of production which it had takcn Iran 40 years to reach. Throughout the 1960s, Libya benefitcd from the gcographical proximity to Europe and the high quality 9 FjOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 I~OR OFFICIAL U9~ ONLY df h~e nil, Aithough s~ics di thi~ uil w~n: n~~t, in muny . rc~pcCtq, nn gond terms fdr tho Libyun~, pn~tu~~ti~+n inCreased rupidly; betwrcn 1963 and 1~)6~, kr rapj~~r gr~ss domrstic product rose from 55~13 t~ ~~057, un averugu unnual inCregso df over SS pcr �nt (UNI[~, 1976), t"olinwl?ig tho cnup ot Septemb~r, 1~1d9, an~ th~ o~tablltihment of tho Rovc~lutiunury Canu�un~l C~un~il (nnw replu~rd by tht ' Oenar~l Pc~pl~ ~ C~m~r~~y') under Mu'qmm~r O~dali, Libya fentur~~f n~ I~;idar rf } tho Arab oil produccr~ in discuuiuny uvcr tha priro uf nil, Thc suc:ccss nf thcsc negotintinns i~ wcll kn~a~n, Uc.rpita oerusinnut r~sh flow probi~^m3 ~~??u~in ~ligl~t - trimmings in the sai~ price of Libynn ail t~ ~nrr~:~s~ saleg, thc post�ty70 poliCy nf reducing oil lifting~ nnd ~ exports contemp~ranenusly with n~~;uliating nn inarensed take pcr barrel has bcen a m;irk~~d su~r~u overall, It berame less effective only in 1976 nnJ 1977 with the world ' oil glut', and incrcas~~1 ~~~mpctiti~m Ernm th~ North Sea sourccs. Today, Libya is well plneed to negutiatc Eurtl~rr price incre~ses, despit~ the competitive m:?rk~t in whi~h her gr~dc of nil sells. The DovernmenC~ in~~+mr, ~vith but smnll decline.v, has been nble tn fin7nCC d~~mc.ti~ growth on as a rapid and sustaincd n scatc ns tha ~duntry Could rensonably have maintain~~L 1nJecd, nut� put of oil, according to the Sccrct~riat tor Oil (Liby~n Nutinn~il Oil Co� 1978) ' will rcmain b~law J,S ntillian bnrrels per day for cnnsnrvutiun rc~~~~~nx'. Tl~i~ is im~~c~rlaint tu t.ibyn, with rclntivcly mu~lcvt r~s~rv~~, " a~limulc~l ut sumc 2p ycurw nr so nt cur~rnt r;~trr ut cxtructi~m, The trunsF~~rmation of thc cconomy ir w~ll dcmnn� stratcd by Tublc 1, which shnws the acrrlrr:tting gn~~~~tl~ ' of the 1970s, in the Threc Year Dcvclupmcnt Plan, which ended in 1975, seve~l optimistic gniw~li t~rgcts TABLE 1 ~ INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN OF (31tOSS DOMEST(C PRODUCT AT CURREfY'1' FACTOR COST (000 L.O.) 196d, I')7~ and 197d Scclor 1964~ 1973 1974 � Ch:~a~;r 197J� I 9~.1 nRricullurc 16 14.0 60.0 2.7 64.7 1.6 7.8 Atining and Qu~rrying 196 54.0 I,136.8 32.1 2,894.4 61.2 III.I Mnnuf,~clurin~ 11 3.0 50.8 2.l 74.5 1.9 46.7 C~?n~frur~iun 22 6.0 261,2 12.0 401.6 10.) S.I.tl I I~~c~rici~y, Gn� und Wn~~r I 10,8 O.S 12.4 0.~ 14.8 ('rnmp~~~r, Cl~~rngu t~n~) Cummunirnliun~ IS 4.0 129.J S.9 192.4 4.9 49.= Whulr.,ilu nnd Rctail 'I'rndc 2Q 6.0 124.8 5.7 184.2 ~1.7 47.6 1'uhlir ndministrali~?n ond Olher (invcnunrnt Scrvic~~ 26 7A ~43.8 13.9 4y4.7 12.7 ~1.1 ~~ivirrr Sfi 16.0 62.N 2.9 9~.4 2.4 ~g.3 ~~63 IOO.A 2.182.2 IOO.p 3.908.3 100.0 79.1 ~ fi~~un~ n~un~IcJ in original ~ou~cr. - tiOUlt~'f's: Mini~try of Planning and Scirntiflc Rctcarch. 10 ~FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 1~'dlt tlr~ICIAL U5~ ~Nt~Y art~` l'\ri'i'~~i't~, clllt~ ~9.5 ~1~P r~111 ~I~t~~i~1 111 t1Uft~i11) 1~1C Iti+l1 ~illt~ ~Icr~ ~~~In~~~i~J~ iIl i~~1rUt~11A (~tl i1 1'~~rl ~n~~Ju~�ti~nt ~~�ci~ ~i~~l~iul~tian i~ t~o ~mall to provide either an TABLE3 hdequhlc �~~~rkA~rcc, ar cvcn a substanti~l domestic ~NE (31tOW7'H O~ NON�LtDYAN EMYLOYMGNI' m;irkct f~~r n~:inuf;irlurin ~ rrnducts. t972�1975 M~~rc~?v~r, ~hc levcl caucati~mal auainment of the I.ib~an ~~~~~~ulh~inn ix law, Lib~~a cxpericnced thc rc� Year t9~~ t9~3 ~97a ~9~5 pl~ccmcm ~~f hcr ~iaditi~,nat K~ranic sys~cm of cduca- Numbcr of Non�Libyans 81,000 118,345 f69,765 223,000 tion b~' n riil~mi7) ~I~~le of sch~~~ling under the Italians. SOURCE: Ministry of Planning and Scicntific Rcscarch, Un- Yct cnrolmcnl c~~cn at primary lcvcl remained low: pubtished Data. in 19t2 7 t1NIitiCO m~.si~n faund that over 90 per ~ TABLE 4 1)ICTR114UTION OF TOTAL AND NON�LIBYAN EMPLOYMENT BY SE.CTOR, 1975 Tolnl Non�Libyan Non�Llbyan 1?cooundc ANi~ll~� Employment Employment 000'~ . 000'a (All Employmcnl) Agrieultun, l'~~n~~~t~�. Fishinp nnd Hun~init 133.1 19.7 17.6 7.9 13.2 P.~rolcum t~nd (irs 10.7 1.6 2.7 1.2 25.2 ~ I?lining and (?u:~rr~ii~t 6.9 1.0 2.8 1.3 40.6 1~1~nuf.ututing 32.9 4.9 13.8 6.2 41.9 [kclricii~. (i:~s und ~1'nlcr 13.0 1.9 3.6 1,6 27.7 C~m�in~:~i~~n 152.6 225 118.0 53.0 ~7.5 7tadc. Rr.l:wnn?t. nnd Ilalrls 48.5 T.2 7.~ 3.5 15.9 Tr~n~~~~tl. Cl~u:~~. nnd Cummunicaliartm 53.4 7.9 6.2 2.8 11.6 Fin:~n.c. 1mur:~n.ti� nnd Rrid f~trtc 7.T 1.1 1.6 0.7 ?A.8 Public .~ldminisir:uian 71.1 10.3 5.2 2,3 7.3 [dura~i~mal ~rr~�ins SB.O 8.6 14J 6,3 ?A.3 Hrnlth C.t~�i~ti~ 30.5 4.5 9.8 4.7 32.1 nthcr 38.7 8.6 19.6 8.8 33.4 T~~lal 677.1 100.0 2227 100.0 32.9 SOUltCE: Afini.~n� af 1 ~h~n~r, 1~tini.~~y af Planning nnd Scientific Research, Demography and Manpowu Section, Mime~grophed Rrp.~tt in Arahic, n..1. 12 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 . .r, V~IYI~ ~ rnn~.~ s , I 411'I ttl ~11i~'f' 11Y Ut't'UI'A t tUNAL til'A't'IIS, I.IIlYAN5 ANU N(~1~~1.IU1'AN5, 1h7S Lib~w~~ uiid Nnn�i,iby~uiu N~?u~l.ib~uu~ Oniy Nun�l.lbyun C;n~pinyuicnf ~r~~i~~i r~~~ri~~~~inanl Nun�i.itiyun "/o u~ u pcrcrul~i�o ooo~s ~?r u~~ i~~i~~i r~�r,~t~t~,~?~~i nn~l Mtuuigurlnl tl.i 4,1 iG.l 7,2 58,1 'T'rrltulriiutr nn~l Su~xrvianrs SN,1 N,6 20,4 9,1 33,1 ('I~~i irni \Vurli~r~ 37,5 5,5 6,2 2,7 16,5 Sl,illr~l ~inil \rmi�~t,illcd 1VurAcre 146,6 51,2 95,2 42,7 27,5 \~n.{,ill~~~l ~V~n~,iia 2U7,2 ;~t),6 NS,1 ;i8.3 41,1 G77,1 1U0,0 223.0 tUU,O 32.9 ~Ot11ti'li~ Mini~tr) ot 1'Innning ond Scicnlifln R~senreh, ln 1971, Ili~ u~~rrsill sh,~rc of the wurkforcc Comprised frnm which Libya draws hcr expulri~+tcs. '1'hc jii~ulysis by thc I1N,U(~) rx~~atriulcs was 28 pcr ccnt, By 1975, nnw turns to thc pa~tcrn of n~lion~litics Ihat arc rcprc� Ihi~ pr~~~~c,r~i~~n had incrc~scd to 33 pcr ccnt, Aspccts senlcd in Libya's cx~atri~te romm~u~ity, c~f Ihc y~iali~;i~ivc ~lc~~c~idcncc upnn non�ncitic~nal lnbdur nf ~hc Lib~~;in c~unnmv nre sh~wn for 1975 in Ti~bl~ 4. Thc orfgins nf expntri,itc l~~bour in Libya 'T'hr highc~l ~h;irc nf ~hc lab~ur m.?rkct absorbed by Tttblc 7 shows that ovcr onc half (alm~st 57 pcr rcnt) ~x~~alria~~s i~ in ~~~n~tructinn, whcrc nvcr thrce workers of non�Liby~n ti~orkers dcrivcd from ~gy~~t in 1975. nut af fnur ~vcrc n�n�n,itiona) in 1975. 'fhc labour in Less thxn one quarter dcrivcd fram Tunisia, thc iicxt Ihc manuf~irlurin~ s~~clur, sa significant to 1.ibya's futurc mcst important exportcr ot labour to Libya (FincIl3iY, ~ilan~~in~, ~~~;i~ almusl onc hulP cx~~atriate in 1975, Public 1978), Of the rcmaining lnbc~ur sup~alicr~ c~nly Syri~ a~lntini~lrali~m in ~+~hich pcists ;~re specifically ra ~upplied morc than 10,000 (scnding 4,8 pcr ccnl ~~f Ihc ~crvcd f~~r I.ihran nati~mnls hs~s thc lowcst dcpend� tntnl expatrintc l~bour fnrcc). Tagcthcr, Ihc Arab w~rld, ci~cc ur~m c~~rilri;~lcs, ~ccording to thcsc figures, uccnunts fur RS,S pcr ccnt lm~~~?rlunl I~~ Ihis nnalysis erc thc numbcrs in agri- labnur importcd by Lib,ya. Pakistan sunplics ovcr 4,500 c~il~urc. nnly 13 ~~cr ~enl of wcirkers in agriculture are workers, and Yugos~avia over 7,500. n~m�nali~~nal, 1~~~~~~c~~rr, it is thesc workers who represent TABI.E 6 mnst ~t Il~c labc~iir in modern scclor bgricultural gXpECT'ED SHOR'1'~ALLS 1N LAt10UR SUhPL1~S AT ~~r~?ducti~~n, '1'he 13:~,(1O0 Libyans in egriculture are VAR)OUS 5KtLL t.EVELS 1976�1980 larFcl~~ in Ir;idilirna) acclor farming, with 1ow levcls of Occuplionul Croup bcmund 5upply 5liertfnll ~tt~,ducli~in, l~~w cash rcturn, low levcls of investment ~nd fcw .i~;ns ~f m~~dcrnisation, 1f these traditional profcssional and hianagcrial scctur ~~~rrk~~r~ ~irc cxcluded, thcn Libya's reliance upon Pcrsonnel 1R,170 9,360 BAto mierant ~~~,rl,~rs appcars grcater: 38 per cent of the Tcchnicians ao,69o 29,900 10,790 m~dem srct~~r l;~h~ur force was nnn-national in 1975. Clericat Workers t5,e8o 15,090 790 Othcr f;irels ~f Libya's depcndcnce upon expatriate SkWorken Scmi-Skilled 157,145 84,350 72,793 ~~~~rkcr. arc drm~,n.t~atcd in Table 5. Ovcr 58 per cent Unskilled Workcrs 71,615 4,300 67,315 of profc.�i~~nal and managerial manpowcr is non� nali~mal, urc ~vcr onc third of tcchnicians and super- Toial 303,600 143,000 ~60,000 ~~isors. Onlv in Ih~ cnse of clcrical workcrs does the - exr:?tri;~~e rlrment i;ill below once quarter. Dependence 50URCE: Economic nnd Social Trnnsfotmation Plan. u~~~m n~,n.n;ili~,n;i1 17b~ur increascd in all occupational ' rnle~~~rir~ I~~~I~~~crn 197~ and 1975. Since 1975, this trend Examinatinn of the ~riqins of Arab wc,rkers by h~c c~~nlinnccl ~~ct mrrc ~Iccply. nationality makcs chan~zinq pattcrns apparcnt. Tahlc 8 Tahlc G.h~,~~�a rrcdiclcd sh~rtfalls in labour, of shows thc chanainq cc~niributi~n ~f vari~~us Ar:?b ~i~~ct ~~,~ri~wc .I,ill lrvrls. ~~�hich ~re expected to accrue by to the Libyan labc~ur force fe~r the period 1972-197G. 19Rf1. Thr�r .h~~r~:i~c. nrc widaran~ing and substantial; The numbcr of E~vptian wnrkcrs has hccn ri~inF ~nl~ h~� im~~~~r~ii~~ c~tra lab~ur can Libya's dcvclopmcnt propnrtionally, as wcll as in abs~lutc tcrms, incrcasin~ rl:in~ hr mrl, l~ i. cxrcclcd Ihat by 1980, n~n�national from less than 50 pcr ccnt in 1972 to c~vcr tw~ Ihirds ~~ill h. run~ribu~in~ s~~me 41.3 per cent of tcilal employ- of Ihe intal numher of Arnb exnatriate wc~rkers in Lihya mcnt. Th. srulc ~~f im~uirts can bc illustratcd by thc in 1976. As a result of Ihis incrcased Egyptian xharc, n~~cd t~~r ~~mu 4.1;~0 tcachcrs, togclhcr with 800 medical most other Arab nations have contributed a rr~i~rc~� ~ d~ki~~n. sively declininR proportion. The exceptions to Ihi~ lm~~rt. ~~f l;ih~~ur ~~n this scalc and of this quali6ca- appear to be thc Siidanese, whc+ only started arriving ti~~n rc~rr�rnl n ~ii:ij~~c call on the suppliers of labour in significant numbcrs in 1976, and the Moroca~n~, who 13 ~FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 , ~oR oF~iczn~. us~ ornY '~'~It1,1; 7 nunth~r ~~f I,eh?u~~~.~c f~~ll b~ ;ilm~~~l Stl ~~~r ~rnl I~~~I~~r~~n '~1 ~II~I Itti t11~ I\I'A'IItIAIL 1Vt~ItKI~.ItS IN I.IIfY~ IIY 1y7~ und 1~~7f,, ~trr~~utt;il~l~' h~~~'siu~~ uf ih~ ~~~lur~1 ~?f ~;111f1N;~1.111' IN UL'( I.MIIL'It 1~I7S nli~ny l.c:b~inc~~: lu Ihcir h~+nt~ r~~unlry f~~Uu~~~in~; Ili~ ~,~iiuu~~llly Numh~r I'cr rcnl Cu~ittg n~ CUn~.llliun~ II~CrC, ~'E)'p~ 14g,07U 56,7 37,674 14,4 Glsindestisin lubnur ~i~i~;ruliun fu Lil~yu tivrin ~Zd~ng 4~g llloodi migrnlinn dc~cs nnt nlicct nu?nbcrti uf ull 1~~rd~~n ~~g~~9 2~6 naliun~lilics und ~kili lcvclti who migr~le inlc~ Lih ~si f~~r p,,~,,~i~i,~ G,570 2.s cm lc~ mcnt, but it swclis tllc n~imbrrs nf unskil~cd in L~~h,ni~m 5,563 2,1 t~ Y - ti,,,l,,,, 4,2SO 1,6 11~c c~~untry bcynnd thc dim~ilsions sug b~~~ted by ~I~u ~,~,,,,,~ru t,yso s c~iTiciul Ilgurc~ t1unlcd hc:rr. ln ~arlicular, ~lic ~lan~ic~~ina ~22~,5~4) (dS.3) n~nvrmants oE ~'unisiun, ~gyptiNn and Sudnncxo ~+�~~~i,,,, 4,Sat 1,7 lnbdurer5 is ~i ~ni(icant, 1'u~t~~tluvir, 7,G41 2,9 b U.F. 3,633 t,4 In thc CH5C of Tunisians, fc~r CXilt11plc, tils~tix~i~r ~tu~~wniu 2,2I4 su~;cst thut numbcrs cnlcring Libyd dnublcd csich yuir l?.~.~. 2~13 hctwccn 1970 nnd 1973, whcn 11,519 migrunl~ cmigr;ilcd 2~~~~ undcr Cnntri~Ct (I~indl~y, 1y78), O,C.D.i:, stnli~tirti iiiiyuria 2~073 � su ctit u total ot 45,000 Tunixians in Lib a b 1973, '1'ur~~y 1,923 S~' Y Y t'r;~ncc 1,8g~t a very ditTcrcnt figurc frum 34,000 in 197G, shown in ~ c~rn,nny t,376 Table 8, Genrge estime~cd 80,000 Tunisians in Libyn (;~.cce ~~ogs b the end nf 1974 (C'indla , 1978; Genr e, 1976 (2S4 214) ~ y~yith Cstimatcs ns vttricd as thcsc, i g is dift'icult to (1~hcr ~,054 gssess thc lcvcl nf illcgul migration. liowcver, in 1971, ~r�i~~ 261,266 1~.~ for 2,984 Tunisian migrants wl~o entcrcd Libyn lcgnlly, some 40,665 werc prcvcnted irom crossing thc bnrdcr tiOUkC.G: r~~ni~ir~ ~~t t.~~bour, lmmigration Dcpartment, becuuse they t~nd no authorisation, 'I'h~t numbcrs living , t,~c~~~inri7t uf U,r niarior, illegnlly in Libya nrc high is beyond dispute (rindluy, wcrc nlsa nal pr~.cnt in largc cnc~ugh numbcrs prior to 1978), in 1976 LibYa cxpcllcd 13,700 Tunisi,~ns who 197G tu fc;~hirc in tlte '1':~ble. Betwccn 1972 and 1976, were clandestinc migr~nts, Thcrc urc nrobably s~haut tlic numhcr ~~f '1'unisians working in Libya almost 40,000 tn 45.,000 Tunisians in Libya. Almnst s~ll nf ~hcsc ~I~~uMrd. ~Vhil~~ ~~arlly n rcltcctinn ~imply of employ nre workers. Very few are w~~mcn nnd clcrcndcnts, mrnt ~Irmand in l.ihyn, ~ho rcturn of Tunisinn workcrs Eslimates of thc numbcro af F.gyptians wnrking in tnan 4~uru~~c, a~hcrc thc dcmand for cxpatriate labour Libya are xs hard to asxcss and make. Thcrc arc morc in (~rcinrc ix ;:~llin~, is also significnnt in raising this than the 153,000 cconomically activc otTicially rccordcd numbcr (I"indl:ry, 1y78). ('1'able 8). The prescnt authors estimate that, at Ihe TA~[.E 8 NU1~1llEFtS nF NON�LI~YAN ARADS 1N TNE WUttK~ORCE, 1972�1976 Decrcase or 1972 1976 , lncrcase o[ ~,i~i�~~.~~i~~. Each Nationallty Number Number Number % rg~ ~~;;,~s 44,764 ~ 49.3 153,284 66.8 -F 108,520 242.4 ~ Tumsc?ns 17,252 19.0 34,650 15.1 -h 17,398 100.1 S~~rians 4,812 S.3 13,029 5.7 + 8,217 170.8 )ur~l~ni~ns 4,358 4.8 7,253 3.2 -h 2,895 66.4 Pale~linians 3,266 5.8 6,913 ' 3.0 + 1,647 31.3 ~.~~~~~~�i, 11,441 12.6 5,771 2.S - 5,670 - 49.6 tiudanc.r n.a. n.a. 5,004 2.2 5,004 ~1~~~~KCan n.a. n.a. 2,466 1.1 2,466 pthrrs 2,~)06 3.2 1,015 0.4 - 1,891 '1'~,tnls .90,799 100.0 229,385 100.0 138,586 ~F 152.6 ti(ll~lt('1': Alini.~iy �f Lahaur infiumnlinn. '11~~ numt~. r uf S~~ri;~ns working in Libya ncarly end of 1975, thcrc wcrc almost 230,000 ccunomirally tr;~~~~Ird; ~wmlxn a~ Syrian cxpatriate w~rkers nctive Egyptians living in Libya (Birks and Sinclair, cl.~al~rrc ~ha~�. nal ri�~n rapidly this teflects a 1979). Numbers of Sudanese in Libya have bccn fluxing ~~~ial rclati~~n.hi~~ building up between Syria and rapidly. 7"oday_ thcrc are over 8,000 ecunomically active Lib~~h, Ilu l:ul~~r Ikz~~min~ a ma~or donor uf a~d and Sudanese in L~bya, and in 1975 there were more than milii:~n� a~ui~m~cnl tu thc Syrian Arab Republic. The the 5,000 recorded officially. 14 ~FOR OFFICIAL US e' ~*iLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100080030-9 ,rdk o1~~F'TCIAL us~ oNr.Y I~ihl~' 'i ~�I~,,~~~ Ihr r~,ti~~'l~~~l I~~lals nl ~`r~~u~viti~'~~Ily li~n ti;iid ' l,lbyu li,~~ ~,~.~,ut~'i~'~ (ur '?~l?,UOQ f~~r~i~:n ;i.�li~c .~~i,il~ r~~~,iliiulr~ iit I.ib~~i~, Il it~;ikrs tli~ i~nn� ~~nrkrr~' ;ii~d Ilicil I.il~~~a '~+~~ul~l like Ilic~c~ fillcil h~ n,iti~~n.~l ~~,nliil,uli~~i~ In Ili~ ~~�~~rkf~ir~~ l~u~k rcilhcr 'I'urks' (~1ini~,tr~ ul I'I,~uuine. 1'I7(~), I';i~t~~in I~ui~~~,,�;~ii i~i~~,i~ri ~li,in Ili~~ I.il~~nit li~;urr~ ai~~I~nc~~vl~J~c.'I'tihl~ J;ilsc~ I~ib~~ur i~ ~iltiii ~~;i~uriii;; iiirrra~in~ly. .liu~~~ ~I~c ~+~~~~r,ill ~i~r~ uf ~hc i~~~ii�I.ih~an cummui~ilics ~~liirli air li~~iiil; iii I.il~~~~i, rul~~ul~ilal hy sipplyiiib crudc '1'I~e in~plicaili~~ns u1 Ihr~c ~ni~?uri~ ul' I~il~uur ~t;ll'lll'1~~;111~~I1 I'~IIC~ ~Ullllt~ 111 l'\~)1111'Ii1lC l'U111I11Ut11lll`S `r~1CfC Cillt ~)l`. Itt~ ~~c~ll~~l 1~1111 I~1C II11~h1P1y tl~~ ~i111~1111' ~I~~~~I?rrr, ~~I~ri~~ ~I~,riin~ri~lnli~~n is ~upcricir. 'I'hi~ is not, huvc cnhcuirrcl ~I~c in~li~~rn~iuti Lihuur f~~rcc cuii,idrr~bly li�~~~~rr, ;i ~li;ii~:lil~~~r~~~;irtl ~~r~,~cys; ~rutl~ ~~nrlirip;itic~n in tcrnt~ of butli ~iunihc:rs ;iiicl ~kills, 'I'his hris f~irili~.it~:t1 rn~~~ uf r~~,;i~ri;il~ rumii~unilic~ ch~uib~ ~~vcr limc, ~utd u tic~ilc .ind ~~acr. ~~f ~Ic~rlnpiucnt ~~I~ich ~vuul~l u~lirr~~~i~c ~~;iry ~~i~lrly, li~ I ih~~?i, ~~~,lilir~~l r�ii~li~uiiils ;ind Il~c h;ivc; bcci~ yuitc iii~~,u~,~,iblc, ~,,illrrn r:ui~~nni~ ~~errl~~~,m~~i~l suEt~;csl Ili;~f rcluli~~cl)~ A~,?imt Ihis riiu~~ hc ,cl a~crics cif in~lir~~ct r~,�~~ fr~r ~I~~~~~~n~lrul~ ~~rrrnit~ruty Ihc rr~,iic~iiii~~~lly ~+cti~~c (riu~~l~~, 1')7(,). C)f ~~,iiii~~ul,ir int~:ir~,t in II~~~ t ihp;in r~~tic r~~~,ilii;i~r~. A rru~l~ ~ritli~'i~~aliun r~itc ~~C 70 ~~cr ~:enl is iiicrc~ncd iiii~~~,i~~ ~,f r~,nruiiicr Ziiotlti hc~:,iusc ti( I~;is ~lirrrf~,ic hrri~ u~r~l t~, c~,n~~~ulc thc Ic~tnl ~~o~~uln� c.~~~siU~ic~lc~' ~iur.lic~sr ~,f ~t~~ucls t~, I,ikc lu~inc ~vilh ~I~em. ti~~ii~ �f Ilir ~~;iriuu~ Ar;ib ~~�mi~iiinilics in '1';iblc 9, 'I'hi~ is ~ru~iicul;~rly i~u~~ ~~f, ~ur cx,iii~~~lc, Su~l,inc,c, wli~~ I'hr i~ui>>h~r ~,f ~rniic 110,UUU n~,n�n,~li~mal Arabs find it vcry clilticult t~, ~,urrh.i~c cun~un~cr ~;u~,~1s i~t ~~url,in~ ii~ I.ih~~ai r~~m~~ri~c~ pc?rt nf .+n inuiiigr;u~t Arab hc~mc. 'I'hcir ~,urrh;~~c` uf lu~,ury .incf ~:uii~uuu~r g~u~d~ c�mmuiiil~~ uf u~~ I~~ 4KO,OOb ~~cr~uns in 1y75. '1'his is u sirc b~~uncl tc, ~,ut cY~~,~ ~~rc,surc c~n thc i.ib~,~n bal,ir~cr, murh I,~r~~r n~~i~�n;ili~,ii;il Arab cc~mmunity tlian otfi'ici,~l uf paymcnts, an~i ur,~in Iha furcign curr~ncy rescrv~s, figur~~x .irl~ii~,~~1~~1~c, M~irc~~vrr, tiincc that timc, both W{~ilst Lib~~a 1~;~~ rn,~na~;a~d tn r~~iuain in sw~lus, Ihc,c nur~hases riF r~~n~;iuncr Zc~ocls arc ~igni(irant bc~;iu~~ '1'Altl.~ 9 thc~ sirc hcinl; ~n,,~lr ~~I~cn invcatmcnt cx~~cnditurc, u~,c>n which thc ~~rc~cnt ~~I