MILITARY MANPOWER POTENTIAL OF EASTERN GERMANY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00457R014300390001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 1, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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" '-sCENTRAL INTELLGENCE AGENCY ,
4300390001-
REPORT NO,
INFORMATION REPORT CD NO
?
SUBJECT Military Manpower Potential of Eastern Germany
25X1C
PLACE
ACQUIRED
DATE OF
iNPO.
NO OF PAGES
NO. OF ENCLS
(LEVF.IP BELOW
SUPPLEMENT
25X1X REPORT N.C,
iiem222.2Eletential of as tern GtEmatietober 15'5,JL
0
5
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gee)
I- The attached tabulation shows the manpower potential of Eastern Jemmy
including ',;ast Berlin as computed on the basis of available eateeial.
Although this material is incomplete, it is coeprehensive enough to
enable one to arrive at usable values regarding the nanber of mei fit
for military service. This tabulation is based on the age groups estallished
by the soviet National Defense Act as it is to be expected that r;astera Ger-
many as well as all the other satellites will follow the f;ovieb procedure
in this respect.
Age group I includes the 12 to 34-year olds;
Age group II inclndes the 35 to 44-year olds;
Age group III includes the 45 to 49-year olds.
The 17 and 13 age group eau included in the first k;e group, a*cause this
group will probably be = drafted in tie event of a mobilizatlon, as happened
in the TJ..s.n. during oorld ear II. Under normal conoitions, the /933 class
will be available for the Craft in October 1952. Horevor, it na;, be expected
that the :;at German Jovernment? in the rent of the promulgation of a general
military service law, would begin to draft the 1932 through 1928 classes
vhice were not trained dur-Ing ee II, in order to have them as a reserve,. On
the average, these year classes consist of 100,000 to 1050000 ebo-bodied eer,
About S50000 of these classes are not yet serving with the Volkspolieei (VP)
or the 3nu, and would be available for induction. In Eastern aermany, the
1933 class, which according to the Leoviet National Defense Act would be in-
ducted in the fall of 1952, has approximate/y 90,000 men fit for military
service who n..e still available. In order to establish and maintain an army
of 24 tall-strength divisions with a total of approximately 250,000 men, a
minimum time for military service will have to be at least tee years.
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sitcr NS-R8 DISTRIBUTiON
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2
2? 7:;2co1anat:Lon of the Indivieual Columns of th lit+^cheAl Tabu:LA:Ion,
Some of the f 1..ures contained in Columns os 7, 11., 16, and 20
are rouLh estiriates. Other figures vere calculate-j
may appear to be of' minor importance. The final fi.:o_re is as CCurate
as possible.
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Column 1:o 1 lists the dividual z.1.:e classes. Th t do :nation of these
classes is not (Tito correct, as they inclde all the -.ales bc,-/- between
October of one :-ear ane the corret-spondin; nenth of the fyll(T,I11,.,
Thus for instance, the 1933 class is cor!prised of those born tmtween
30 October 1932 and 29 October 1933. The second tid third ae,roups?
Le. the 36 throuZh 45?near old -,:roi-up are the throuHi
Lrou:a have not boon brohen down into the individual classes, al the in-
duction of a 1nle c1a:7s of this a;:e :roup is out of question,
Column o 2 lists the P.abe. population pi' a OtOr' e,:c1 ive
of rt.ast -erlin, as wan recorded at the ?,(..neral cc s2s.,:s hall'. on
?2f2 October 19L.6. The fiLures were tahen fre.:.: the sup-le-Aer...1,
sche "...'ra;cip.2. issue ::o 6 cf June 191:
tisti-
Column 7o 3 contains the male population of "erlin 1 January The fi:ures -,.vere talon from the i:erline.r issue Ho 2 of
12470 a:: rrablisheC b;.:- the Jtatistictil .-f.!:'ice for 13".,.:tropo1itan
In this pui.,iliciation, statistical fiTares are consol.ieuter.::. 'for ;reups of
tyro to five c1as:3c therefore, a .nean fi.:are for cac'.:
vidual cia.:7:s had to he calculated on, the cond.itioas
in 'astern Jeriian;.-. The dfiz'foren.co in thz-i datr.s t If:".erLius hold :in
er1.4..n aterr .3-er--:,T.In-,T? j,,e.? October 70.-7445 and ,Tanuar.'r l';'h7? is s:on-
sidered inmaterial.
Colunn i7o L. represents the rounded-off total of the fi:,ures contained
in Caumns 1.03 2 and 3, and is an approxinote total Of the
lation livinz in l':astorn ::;ernanz:- inclusive of at 1;erlin in October
Column :.7o 5 contains the yearly number of e.f.! nth uar 1,300 el' the trel.-
vidual elasses? f-ccordin:7 to Cer?ian publications, the dectH rate
was as follows:
19/17: 139
194(:): 15.1
17,h9: 15,0
7.2n the basin of these .-fi,-)ires, 'the death- rates. for 1950 nd I1 ore
ost17.ntoC. 9arr'. a3'.;uorl
dc..L,2,v,..s. for: -n.c. 1'147 h. rou
?The death rate for C2su3afw ras availahld for J3?
fro. i tn,eL')tatistischcas Clas
l9100 Accordir. to iLls, thu averze dret'l rate of o2 the
noyfintion 7R-1c .12.2 i.e.? 77 7.:?ercon.t, of c2jovc er nioned Coat-, ratof
thcreasirv,; tbc fi:?-:ures.:.)1-oportions.ily, an estimate el t':e dont;
rate -fer each ae class ....Lis z-irrive;: at,
Column Ho 6 lists the: iusiber o: the .:)criod from
1717717?tireuj,h
johtir 70 7 lists est:tinted fiTdr(.-..s oH "th ti Se. Ten fled to ..(1st Her
lin and .,oste:.-r1 ey,...ollAsive of thy', hu,lber of VP deserters,.
to esti......i.ates for 1.9h7, 19L3 and the alndesnini.sten:,..tx:3 l'uer
-lesailt(-1072.tohe for"2,...Calrs), the 2c.lowlh::
mr-iLer 'r!ert IH ed tn es tur 7,127-.11.ticin:
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1950 and 1951: approximately 50,000 per year
1952: about 30,000 prior to 15 Aueust. (The estimates for 3950 to
15 Aue,ust 1952 are based or available reports). This would approxi-
mate a total of 410,000. This figure includes about 6,300 7P deserters,
which number was computed on the assumption that an averaee of 150 ece
fled every month durine the eeriod from 1949 throueh 1952w
o data were available on the aee structure of the refueees. Obi, of the
VP deserters belon:ed to the 191C through 1932 classes. For t'is reason,
h00 non were entered in Column lo for these clasces For lteee of per-
tinent records, the 404,000 male refueees were distributed anon all aee
eroups from 1 to 55 :rears. The avorrt,:e was 7,300 :len per class hit this
fieure eas sliehtfy modified accordine to the varyine utreneth of the in-
Cividual aee classes.
Celuen ::$31 LI lists the number of V2 personnel rho flee to estern Gernany,
Also refer to the remarks for Column 7 above.
Coluen Po 9 represents estizintee of the number of rr deeorted to the
u..743.n. or compulsorily recruited for :lurk there. sccorane to a study
le- the :Federal -inistaee for illl-Jerman Affairs, 25e000 and 11i1000 men eere
affected be these lienseres in 19h7 and 1943 reseectively. roueh averaee
of 2,100 on for each of the classes of the 1222 throueh 190.3 n:e :roup,
eho were at that tiee felly fit for eork0 was used.
Coliiir ho 10 coetnins estimates of the numbers of men who entered %asterr
:lerean:, from the area of the Cder-Pcisse line. tccerdAne to material
punished in etatietieche ?rexis and .irtschaft und etetistile, the followine numbers of een in tf:770, to 6:: aee _roue were resettled Curine the
period froe 1947 through 1949:
1947:
113,000
1948:
73,000
1949:
29,000
Assumine that approximately 10,000 men were resettled in 1950 z'rC 1251,
thie would result in a total of 230,000 :e- this total
beteecn the a:e eroeps of 1 to 50 eears, on axrace ef Ise":00 is arrived at.
Colt= 11 contains esti:le-es of to numbers of Ps, returnee to ?astern
lierlany after October 1246, _ccordine to a study -la Ce lee Vie ,eederal
.inistre for 2,11-jerean 'f:'eire (in booklet 7::enner -erichte 1951), the
folloeire number of .7.s retureed :earine
the period from 19!,7 tirou 12,r91,
1947:
205,000
1940:
210,000
1949:
135,000
These fieures eeyeld total 5C5?000 ehen an estimated 30,000 returnees for
1950, and 5,000 for 3.51 were added. for the 1927 throueh 1:91 classes,
which were mainly affected le- P. captivity, this would avcra_e 17,000
returnees per pee class derine the ?aria: from 19 lo 1952. This number
7es eeaduated according to the streneth of the clnesee concerned, and
with consideration of the aee structure of the German J.rned Zorces as of
1945.
Column o 12. A computation of to number of males levine in 'astern CiET-
many in October 1952. (0c:1u:in Lo L. minus the eum of the fieures contained
in Columns 5 through 9 plus the sum of the fieures in Columns 10 and 11)0
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Column Ho 13 lists the number of a1es of foreiion citizenship and non-
-3-erman ori,in livino: in J-;astorn Germany and probably not subject to the
draft. In October 19)6, this cateo,ory totaled 200300 men? It is 'be-
lieved that this nuinbor has not essentiall7 &angel in the leontime.
--Presnoposirc, that this number of men is to be distributed upon
classes, this trould result in an avora::e total of 300 for each clacs.
The p6rti-nent information ,Jas obtained from issue :'o 61 June 19)T, of
:tatioti sex Pra:oi s
is an ostinate of the total of :Jen eetained in jails arid
forced labor car s. Ac.s.00rcirc to tte nErospaper Tele :f of 1 :-z_KO 1751,
this cateo:oror aoounted to 45,0000 men. ;',ssurtin; that about 35,000 of then
liere naleS, this would result in a total of L:00 nen for each of the 20
Vozono,sh (i5 aoe classes. This fio;ure, was reduced for the 17 trout 21 ao:e
classes.
Column represerts an estimate of those disabled in I,orld ItIr II.
:Iccoreinc; to no 1247 7trearbook of Loutoche Vcrloatunc fuer "irLcit und
5ozia1fnersoroe (lernan ::dministration for le.)or and locial oelfare) of
:;astern lernany, a?orcmil'ately ;,070000 disabled persons ,:ere ro,.,istered
in asterner-oany in janunr- Assumino that about 250.0000 of them
:ere d.isablo( t5rouo'l (nerr- action includin: boubilv eurinc the lost war,
it f el1ctz that there were abomt 6,000 disabled nen in eocfo, of the 1927
ttrou:h 17 classes, otlic comorises the lr throu-jo 52-2-ear-olds. Persons
disabled throuoll other accidents are listed in Column :0 16.
Column ro 16 contains an estioaate of the number of men ionlit for rdlitary,
service. -TEls esttlate is based on an empirical percentooe value., as was
obtained frou various computations of the 3erman manpower potential in
or1d'lar II and on the ..:oviot post-,war potential. It is assumed that an
averao:e of 19 percent of in.en who are unfit for military service exist in,
the 13 throw;h h5 aoe 2.roup. ol)th estern otatistician.s anO, thoovtEt
Lervice Inforoation .ijooltact on the '-erran rmee, Forces,
issued by the leneral L;taff of to 2)ovirt ..`r-olzr in 192;3) a Toe on Vlo fioure,
This percenteop increases from a ratio of four oercent for t e:oltn:,est
:rear classes to 30 ourcont for nose 50 :roars ole. ?
Column o 17 represents cotioate Gf the num or r en fit for ottlitary
?service-U-Tetober 1252. (0olumn 12 mtnus thE, sum of the .7.onres contained
in Co1uo2n :cc 13 thr ouo:h .16).
Column c13 lists the estiosted fi:oxes of 'Close oen, t.ho ma,- be cleferred
from nilitary service, as -ncrj ere regoired in the ,oram.ento industoy. in -oar-
time. ror lack of nom reliable records, a ;Ooviet esti ,,ate of the :rorman
19h2 quota of the 31 t.:;rouo:h 4-:ear-olds the rem deferocC. from :filitory
service, was used. This entioato -ooto the num3oer of tose morons iv;b as
15.4 percent. Inforontion ..co:aot on the erolan tosu,ed by
theler.eral :ttaff of toe :;oviet ruy in 1943). -,estorn ototioticO2olos asoome
that a MindULEA -of 5 percent of the youno:est year clasoeo till be reouired
b:T the arrlafaentt,; -industr:/ in wartinc,, the booio of .V:o se 000rm..imate
values, the oorcentse of ilen deferred iron mtlitar:o service avir:. to
enpio:na3nt in the armaments indottry was ora:!.oated fro :1 5 2erssnt fur the
17 throuh ac classes to 30 oeroent for the 46 thrall:oh 50 clr,sses.
Column MD 19 contains the approximate fio,ures of the maximurl number of loen
available in the event of mobilization in October 1952, (Columns -c 17 ,o,irus
Column No 10).
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Column no 20 liAs the estimates accordinc to percentae arc' rimbers
of those industrial woecers deferred from nilitrr- sorvice ji ,ware
-
time inductions. The ;)ercentaje ficure is related to the ti,tal of men
Lit for militar: service (oe Jolumn Jo 17) and for lack ofpfrti-
nent eata? tas calculated b coublinc the nerc,ere of wart4me defer-
ments. This ;%,-,rcenta,;e was s'All fulther increased for the :oungest
classes, in order to rialto allowance for the deferments usually ,TL-nte6
:or traininL: purposes in ti-le of peace The catecory of the 36 throaLt
50 sie classes was omitted, as the :len of this :roup are too el' for peace-
time inductions.
Celurin T:o 21 lists the
07cTOST7r2. (Column
Column 7o n
21 contais
rith the for the
VP of the fiVA:
VP of the AIM:
IP of the 1714
VP of the JVI)vP:
2order Police under the
:Anistry of 3-tate
number of mon Available for a peacetLITe army in
I:0 17 minus Golumn 1;o 20).
the estimates of the numbern of ..en already servin
The pertinent ficures esticlatui as follows:
95)000 mon
5,000 men
1,000 men
63,000 men
22,000 mer
Total:
.34'7,000 men
It is believed that these fi:-,uros contain the followin7, esti:atC
bers of men in the 1C t:lrou:b 2 ae roup:
VP of the 'WA:
VP of the JVS:
7? of the NI:
V- of the ITLIT::
-ornr lolice
60,000 men (after the re-
emit inc calq,aii,:n of
the sl).:u:ler
of 1952)
000 mon
,S00 en
15?000 nen
30000 mon
2,000 nen
Total:
about 90,000 men
It may therefore be Assunled that an avera;:e of 13,000 men of the :our42er
classes is already sorvinc with a para-military or,;anlzation. The 1930 an3
1931 classes prol;ablr are the numerically stronL:est of the classes servDn.:
with a para-military oranization. It ir Assumed that 207,000 len are
from amoni; the 26 through 55-fear old a,,;e classes. The number per class
was :Tacluated accordin,; to a,,)a.
--ra 1
?za:iterr..
'.071. the fral of
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1)
7ecr Class (born
prior to October
of t%c :erx con-
cerned
2)
'Is pi: ()etc-
her 1945 ir :astern
on imr, e;:cept
erlin
3)
7ales?. of
Januar: l947 in
in Tast:tri' ior
riinas of ac
on of 1))i6
4.)
,ircthcr
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19:35
(unc? er 13)
193/4
1933
1932
1931
1930
1929
192 3
1927
1926
1925
19214
1923
1922
1921
1920
1919
1913
162,199
979
121,392
126,103
132,219
139,852
133,651
11C, 06
84,947
66,913
63,537
56,16
57,614
64,123
70,023
76,151
L6,650
35,058
7,600
6,300
5,370
6,000
6,009
6,050
5,200
14,500
3,300
3,200
3,100
3,100
'; 150
3,400
3,500
3,100
2,900
1,(:17 - 1908
III
1907 - 1903
Total
727,950
544,705
2,974,205
1:,5500
333(y)
170,300
12L:,700
132,100
13:, 200
1J5,,000
139 9 700
1249000
39,700
70,, 200
6(.; 7i)0.
rn Onn
7ne
/27,3M
73,00
nrso
33,000
703, 500
533,330
?
172,470
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5)
Yearly Leath :',.ate
per thousand
6)
air-ther of Leaths
within 6 Years
7) 0)
I!ofuc,ces to the ..estern
zones
Civilians Voli-s ouzel
9)
falcs deported
to the -1st.
2.9
2,9
2,9
29
4.4
14,4
4.1t.
hoho
1,05
r
4.5
4.5
ho
h,7
4.7
) 47
07
2,960
2,660
4240
2,300
3,640
3,330
3,700
3,270
2,380
1,890
1,010
1,620
1,650
1,820
2,360
2,260
11iL10
1,070
8,200
8,200
3,200
0,500
9,000
9,500
.90000
0,800
8,200
7, COO
7,500
7,300
7,300
7,300
7,300
7,300
7,000
6, 000
)100
400
LOO
400
400
L00
400
1,00
400
,400
hoc)
400
1!.Do
%00
k00
ao??
4 he
.1.101
wee'
car/
IMO
,101,
2s,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
6.8
32,000
73,000
30C)
21,000
103
36,000
36,500
UP al
101,500
110,570.
252,000
6,300
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J-?
11.1.Lritx
10)
:..ec et-tiers fron
the C4er Line
111)
1",:c t-irf no cl s
10 ;
. )17
a7 Cf tC2lyr
h0600
,,600
14,600
163,700
300
122,900
11,600
1250500
)4600
NOV
129,300
)4,600
Sip
135,900
14,600
131,200
4,600
?100
116,100
4,500
b., 000
67,300
1$600
3,000
72,700
1,2600
13,000
77,600
11?60o
13,O00
73,2.00
4,600
20,000
76,000
600
22,000
32,300
4,600
23,000
ro$100
4,600
$ 000
6,200
4,600
25,000
,60,500
241000
57,000
.......**???????????ne a la so aso me ? ??? g ?
146,000
220,000
523,000
?
23,000
'30, 090
603,000
151? COO
11.014.$0u0
3,377.000
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3:7;01.
aln
2-5) 16).
13) 14) Disab1cd . Other anfit-
lion--Gor.litm Or icin Pricjonors Vc ter ons ilalcs 2ical1y fit
1cc at; of October
1952
300
300
300
300
300
300
3o0
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
100
300
tloo
500
600
Coo
Coo
800
Coo
Coo
Coo
Coo
300
300
Coo
Coo
coo
800,
-
-
-
-
-
-
500
2,000
L,000
6000
600:)o
5v00o
6,000
6,000
6,000
6/000
???????*OWIMM110.11.41.4.1.0?00?10k
6,500 ()4 5)
5,900 (4 ;;)
4,0900 ()4 5)
5,000 (h )
5,200 (4 r;:;)
50400 (4 ;';)
56,68?000 ((55 %)
41,400 (5 7,;)
34,600 (5 5)
3,900 (5)
5,100 (7,5)
5,300 (7 ...)
52000 (7 5)
6,200 (7 5)
6,700 (7)
61200 (9 5)
5,100 (9 5)
156,800
139,800
117.000
31937oo
123,700
1291400
123,500
1091200
109,200
81,300
66000
s
S3.t6o0
61,000
63,600
69 ,Loo
,,,,,,_
75,00075,000
34Loo
553200
3,000
3,000
60100o
110,000 12 5)
71412200
1,500
3.4000
30,000
132,700 (22 5)
4.314 LO0
9,900
24,300
138,500
341,100 ?
2,8632,7-00
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'
13)
19)
20)
21)
ales doferreki
les available
-ales deferred
':ales available
in Case of
in case of mo-
from peace-time
for 0eacd-time
Mobillzation
bilization
military sor-
mi1itar7 ser-
(minimum)
(Fi0ures rounded
off)
vice
vice in 1952
(Ftxres rounded
elf)
ex
22)
servin,-; -01th
para-military.
orank;ations
in ;id_u!lt
1252
23)
nvailalae
for inCuo-
tion in
ca::e of
co:Ipulsory
military
-
service ,a,.s
of fall
1952
7,800 (5)
149?000
23,500 (15 5)
133,000
-
133,000
7,000 (5 n
133,000
21,000 (15 5)
0000
??000
115, coo
5,900 (5
111,000
17,600 (15 5)
? 100,000
10,000
90,000
7,200 (6 5)
113,000
19,200 (16 5)
101,000
14,000
67,000
7,400 (6 .5)
1160000
19,800 (16 5)
104,000
16,000
38,000
10,400.(8 5)
119,000
22,000 (17 5)
107,000
170000
9p,,000
9,900 (8 5)
111;4000
21,000 (17 5)
103,000
15,000
3L 00c
9,800 (9 5)
99,000
190700. (18 0
900000
14,000
7( D00
7,300 (9 ;.;)
74,000
Ih4600 W :14
67,000
12,000
55, WO
5,900 (9 r,!,)
60l00o
11,900 (r -,')
540000
10,000
),1:.000
7,00 (11 5)
610000
15,100.(22 5)
544000
r 000
L6?000
6,700 (11 5)
54,000
13,400 (22 5)
4C?000
6,000
42,000
7,000 (11 5)
57,000
11,000 (22 5)
50,000
6,000
000 ?
93000 (13 5)
60,000
131,000 (26 A
51,000
1!-- 1. 1
9,900 (13 5)
660000
19,700 (26 :-)
56,000
5:,030
51, 030
10,700 (13 :)
72,000
21 1,00 (26 5)
61,000
5,000
r-x;-nno
3,300 (15 A
47,000
16,600 (30 5)
39,000
40000
000
6,700 (15
38,000
13,400 (30 5)
31,000
0,000
27 000
148 200 (20 A
c'el 000
/1?1,51.
130,400 (30 A
30)10000
423,000
254400000
Approved For Release 2002/08/09 : CIA-RDP82-00457R014300390001-4