VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 24-54: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN ITALY, PUBLISHED 16 NOVEMBER 1954

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100129-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 15, 2012
• Sequence Number: 129
• Publication Date: February 7, 1956
• Content Type: STUDY

Declassified and Approved For Release 201/(7)871-5 : CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100129-1
Vaiti *yid
IAC-D-100/4
7 February 1956
Validity Study of NIE 24-54:
Probable Developments in Italy,
published 16 November 1954
1. NIE 24-54 estimated developments in Italy through 1958.
Hence the validity of its judgments cannot now be fully determined.
In general, its principal conclusions appear to be still sound.
2. In particular, the social and economic weaknesses noted
in NIE 24-54 as basic to the Italian situation persist, and no sub-
stantial mitigation of these conditions is in sight. Developments
since the publication of NIE 24-54 have tended to substantiate
many of its other significant estimates, e. g. : (a) the Communists
would be unlikely to come to power either electorally or by force,
although the basic electoral appeal of the Communists would remain
great; (b) the Scelba government would probably be replaced by
mid-1955; (c) indications pointed toward a moderate leftward
swing in Italian domestic policy; (d) the Italian government would
attempt to implement economic and social reforms but obstacles
to implementation of far-reaching programs, including divisions
within the center coalition, would remain formidable; and (e)
the Christian-Democrats would improve their organization and
probably make some net electoral gains, while rightist parties
would suffer a further recession in popularity.
3. Nevertheless, NIE 24-54 though recognizing difficulties
within the coalition did not anticipate the extent to which these and
other developments would increase the chances of political coop-
eration between the center parties and the Nenni Socialists.
SECRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100129-1