VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE-83: CONDITIONS AND TRENDS IN TROPICAL AFRICA, PUBLISHED 3- DECEMBER 1953

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100095-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 15, 2012
• Sequence Number: 95
• Publication Date: August 16, 1956
• Content Type: STUDY

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100095-9
IAC-D-100/21
16 August 1956
Validity
Conditions and Trends in Tropical Africa,
published 30 December 1953
1. We believe that developments in Tropical Africa have
generally supported the estimates set forth in NIE-83, which was
the first National Intelligence Estimate on the area. There was a
tendency to underestimate the speed with which political consciousness
would develop and nationalist movements would gain momentum in some
territories. Thus, the predictions concerning the ability of the colonial
powers to maintain control over their Tropical African dependencies,
while correctly identifying the forces at work and valid for the period
between NIE-83 and the present, now require some restatement and
modification. Similar miscalculations of the rate of growth of African
discontent and aspirations also affected the short-term validity of the
regional estimates on French West Africa, the French Cam croons,
and Uganda. However, the regional estimates in general had a high
degree of validity.
2. Two aspects of the estimate were not developed in sufficient
detail. While we noted that Western colonial policies in Africa might
become a touchstone of relations between the Arab-Asian states and
the West, we failed to forecast the role which the Arab-Asian states
have rapidly come to play in African affairs. In addition, certain
estimates were made concerning the foreign policies which would be
pursued by African colonial territories once they had become in.de-
pendent, but we did not call attention to the incentives to irredentism
and expansionism which are likely to influence future relations among
the African states themselves.
3. With the exceptions noted above, we believe that our estimates
were an accurate forecast of trends in the area. Despite the modifica-
tions of detail which are inevitable after a lapse of three years, the
analysis of political, racial, economic, and social problems remains
fundamentally correct. Moreover, although we did not forecast a
more active Soviet policy, we did point out the opportunities which
the area presented to the USSR.
SECRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100095-9