VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 93-55: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN BRAZIL, PUBLISHED 15 MARCH 1955

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100083-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 83
• Publication Date: January 11, 1957
• Content Type: STUDY

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-0040OR000300100083-2
ET
IAC-D-100/27
11 January 1957
Validity Study of NIE 93-55:
Probable Developments in Brazil,
published 15 March 1955
1. NIE 93-55 correctly forecast the broad political and economic
developments in the 1955-1956 period, i. e., that Kubitschek would be
elected, that chronic political tension would continue, and that there
was little chance that the new administration would be able to deal
effectively with Brazil's deep-seated and politically dangerous economic
difficulties.
2. The unanticipated military split resulting from Lott's
November 1955 preventive coup led to an incorrect estimate of the
attitude of the military toward the new administration. Instead of the
armed forces united in opposition to the new administration, the latter
has army support.
3. Partly as a result of army influence in the present regime
and partly because of the US decision to provide substantial economic
assistance to Brazil, a moderate political course, rather than further
evolution to the left, as suggested in NIE 93-55, has thus far prevailed.
4. Documentation obtained during 1956 has revealed that NIE
93-55 greatly exaggerated the actual membership of the Communist
Party in Brazil.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-0040OR000300100083-2