VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 34-54: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN THROUGH 1955, PUBLISHED 7 DECEMBER 1954

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100081-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 81
• Publication Date: January 24, 1957
• Content Type: STUDY

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-0040OR000300100081-4
IAC-D-100/28
24 January 1957
Validity Study of NIE 34-54:
Probable Developments in Iran Through 1955,
published 7 December 1954
NIE 34-54 has held up well in most respects for a period
considerably beyond its formal date of expiration; most of its
main judgments still appear to remain basically sound. However,
in stressing the continuing importance of popular discontent and
restlessness, the estimate failed to anticipate the extent to which
the Shah has thus far been successful in controlling such tendencies
and strengthening his own control of the government. In particular,
it did not anticipate that the Shah would solve the leadership problem
by installing a puppet cabinet. Similarly, the estimate failed to
anticipate that the Shah would adhere to the Baghdad Pact despite
the lack of real popular support for such a move and despite US
unwillingness to provide prior security and increased aid commit-
ments which might be used to justify Iranian adherence.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-0040OR000300100081-4