POST-MORTEM ON NIE 100-3-56: SINO-SOVIET POLICY AND ITS PROBABLE EFFECTS IN UNDERDEVELOPED AREAS, DATED 24 APRIL 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300020036-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2004
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: May 9, 1956
• Content Type: OUTLINE

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IAC-D-57/33
9 May 1956
Post-Mortem on NIE 100-3-56:
Sino-Soviet Policy and Its Probable Effects
in Underdeveloped Areas,
dated 24 April 1956
I. Findings
1. Instead of rehearsing the gaps observed in preparation of
this paper--which would in any case largely duplicate gaps pre-
viously reported from earlier estimates--it seems more helpful
in this case to set forth the key problems which the agencies had.
to consider in preparing the estimate. This post-mortem thus
takes the form of a program of action and portrays what the
agencies are endeavoring to do in this field. In view of the already
apparent magnitude and effects of the new Bloc tactics, an intensi-
fied intelligence effort in this field is indicated.
2. Listed below, therefore, are certain important problem
areas, selected on the basis of their importance to the two
principal estimative problems of NIE 100-3-56: (a) the motivation,
qualitative and quantitative content, and duration of current Bloc
tactics in the underdeveloped areas, and (b) the economic and
political effects in the underdeveloped areas of Bloc tactics.
3. Key problems with respect to Bloc motivations, capabilities,
and future courses of action are:
(1) Bloc economic requirements and
(2) Bloc political considerations.
b. The probable level and pattern of Bloc trade with
the underdeveloped areas over the next five years.
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IAC-D-57/33
9 May 1956
4. Key problems with respect to the effects of Bloc tactics in
underdeveloped areas are as follows;
a. Effect of Bloc tactics on the morale, prestige,
and attractiveness of local Communist parties.
b.
d.
e.
Bloc performance on trade arrangements and
technical assistance programs.
The vigilance of the underdeveloped countries
with respect to activities of the local Communists;
with respect to the dangers involved in current or
future commitments to the Bloc.
The likely degree of economic dependence on the
Bloc and the willingness of local leaders to
sacrifice economic gains if faced with compro-
mising political demands.
Long-term trends in world trade and demand and
trends in the attractiveness of the Bloc as a
market.
f. The relative weight of economic and other factors
II. Action
determining political orientation.
The economic requirements for development in
the underdeveloped countries and likely contri-
bution of Bloc trade to development.
The appropriate IAC agencies are requested to take such
action as they deem essential to increase the over-all intelligence
effort devoted to the underdeveloped areas and Bloc efforts to
influence them, with particular attention to the problems noted
above.
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