INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE ANNUAL REPORT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL ON THE STATUS OF THE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300010028-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 2, 2004
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: July 27, 1956
• Content Type: REPORT

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TS #102)97 78
COW No.
ILC-D-55/1x'
First Draft
27 July 1956
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY C O M M I T T E E
Annual Report to the National Security Council on the
Status of the ForeiLm- Intelligence Program
Reference: IAC-D-55/11, 22 June 1956
1. The first draft of the Annual Report to the National Security Council
on the Status of the Foreign Intelligence Program is forwarded herewith
for review. A representatives meeting for the discussion of this draft
will be hold at 1000, Fri day, 3 Au ust in Room 115, Administration Buildini,
CIA.
2. The usual section on "Clandestine Collection" has been omitted
from this draft pending further clearances within CIA.
3. The annex containing material called for by NSC action 1430-n
is being prepared and coorddinated', as appropriate, by the office of the
Special Assistant to the Director for Planning and Coordination, CIA.
No further coordination of this annex is planned.
4. A summary similar to the one submitted last year will be pre-
pared when coordination of the body of the report has been completed.
5. According to present plans, this matter will be placed on the
agenda of the LLC meeting scheduled for 14 August.
WILLIAM P. BUNDY
Secretary
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Lk. "Situation Room" in the White House
At the request of the White House, CIA undertook., with the
cooperation of other ItC agencies, to assist in setting up a
"Situation Room" in the Iahite House and to provide the necessary
intelligence support for it.
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6. F!?rmosa Strait Coverage
The ad hoc I.1C Current Intelligence Group on the Formosa Strait
Problem, established by the IA.C in March 1955 in response to the
PresidentIs desire for coordinated intelligence coverage of this
area, continues to meet regularly. The Group issued daily reports
initially and then weekly reports until August 1955; since then the
reports have been prepared on a biweekly basis. A special study
of the military and logistic situation was issued in January 1956.
7. The Arab-Israeli Situate
In response to an informal request of the Department of State.,
an ad hoc IAC Working Group on the Arab-Israeli Situation was set
up in March 1956 to cover the potentially explosive developments
in Palestine. The working group issued its first statement on the
military and political situation on 8 March and has since kept it
up to date, together with current maps and military statistics.
8. Emergency Plans
In recognition of the probable impact of emergency situations
on the functioning of the D.C. there was established, at the
suggestion of the Director of Central Intelligence, and ad hoc
Working Group on Emergency Plans , charged with the examination of
the impact of war on the functions of the MC and the identification
of problems that might arise at Operation Alert 1956. The IAC
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adopted a series of recommendations prepared by the committee and
designed to anticipate problems affecting the operations of the
Ix both under simulated and actual war conditions,
B. EVALUATION AND EST.DZTES
1, National Intollin,ence Estimates (NIE)
a, Production of NIEIs continued to be guided largely by
the needs of the NSC and related bodies. Of the 48 NIE's published
during; the last year, 26 were related to specific NSC papers or
policy decisions,
b. The IAC has prepared a number of estimates in support of
the reports to the NSC on the "net evaluations" of the capabilities
of the USSR to inflict direct 3njtary,? on the continental US.
We estimate for the 1955 report, which were keyed to the focal
period of mid-1958, included "Soviet Gross Capabilities for
Attacks on the US and Key Overseas Installations Throu . Mid-1958,"
and "Probable Intelligence Warning of Soviet Attack on the US
Through Mid-1958." On 214 May 1956 the NSC established on a permanent
basis the procedure for producing these net evaluations which
hereafter are to be submitted by 1,5 November of each year, For
the Net Evaluation Study to be submitted on 15 November 1956, the
IAC has produced "Soviet Gross Capabilities for Attack. on the US
and Key Overseas Installations and Forces Through Mid-1959"
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and "'Soviet Nuclear Program." The following NIEts will also provide
intelligence support for the 1956 report: "Soviet Capabilities
and Probable Soviet Courses of Action Though 1961" and the pending
"Sov of Capabilities and Probable Programs in the Guided IvNiesilo
Field."
c, The following estimates have been produced in support of
the work of the Special Assistant to the President for Disarmament:
"Soviet Gross Capabilities for Attacks on the US and Key Overseas
Installations and Forces in 196$1" and "Sor?e Implications of a System
of International firmaments Inspection."
d. There has been completed a "Survey of NtF Dissemination and
use,, which had been undertaken to assist in doterrdizing how national
estimates can be rinde more useful to policy makers. The results of
this survey are currently being, reviewed by the ItC. During the past
year there has also been a further refinement of the reporting of
intelligence deficiencies encountered in the preparation of estimates
in order to alert the intelligence community to Caps which need
to be closed. In addition., a careful study of the vali.dl,~y of
each estimate is made after a lapse of time as a further check on
the estimative process.
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20 National Intelligence Surveys (NIS)
a. NIS production during the year exceeded the yearly goal
set for the program by the JCS, and brought the total of the NIS
produced thus far to nearly 3,300 sections, which represents more than
60% of the total world coverage. Major effort continued on the
JCS high-priority areas, on which coverage is now over 85% complete.
All NIS contributing agencies continued their strong support of the
program and their field collection results showed improvement.
b. During the next three years the NIS Program will continue
to meet the JCS annual requirements providing the NIS contributing
agencies maintain their capabilities at the present levels. This
will result in 80% coverage of world areas by 30 Juno 1959, and
the revision of at least 20% of all published NIS under the main-
tenance program.
3. Military Intelligence
a. The status of military intelligence capabilities remains
essentially unchanged from that described in the last report(,
Information available on the USSR, Communist China and the Satellites
is improving and is generally adequate to support broad assessments
of the capabilities of the Armed Forces of those countries and to
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4. Political Intelligence
a. Reasonably adequate coverage was maintained on all areas
of the world, and interpretations produced on all major political
developments, despite some decline in capabilities for producing
political intelligence due to the reorganization in the personnel
system of the Department of State and the consequent increase in turn-
over in the staff of the Department's intelligence organization.
Intensification of the diplomatic offensive of the Sino-Soviet Bloc
against the uncommitted nations and against acme allies of the US
posed increased problems concerning Bloc intentions and capabilities
and concerning the vulnerabilities of the target areas, particularly
in connection with the increased use by the Bloc of trade and aid
agreements.
b. Over-all capabilities in the political intelligence field
should improve, and the effects of increased turnover of personnel
noted. above should be couiteracted, as a result of budgetary increases
approved for FY 1957 and projected for FY 1958. During the next three
years, political intelligence problems which will continue to require
attention include Arab nationalism, Communist subversive capabilities
in non-Communist counts:, and the di>>lomatic offensive of the Sino-
Soviet Bloc. Other problems may be expected to increase in importance,
including possible changes within the Soviet Union and between the
Soviet Union and other members of the Bloc.
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be Large-scale research is under way on certain economic aspects
of the Sine-Soviet Bloc military establishments. Intensive analysis
of data on prices and on military requirements has enabled intelligence
research: (a) to improve cost calculations for Bloc military programs,
(la) to estimate the cost burden of these ?,Drograms on their economies,
and (c) to provide a basis for comparison with similar programs of the
United States. Detailed data required on military end-items, however,
remain generally inadequate.
c. Other 'idld.e of economic intelligence pertain&ng to the Sino-
Soviet Bloc in which there has been ;portann progress include economic
growth, gross national product accounts, agricultural and transportation
capabilities, and industries of vital importance to military production
capabilities,
d. An intensive program for the systematic study of Sino.Soviet
Bloc economic activities in the underdeveloped areas has been undertaken
by the Economic intelligence Committee of the IAC. Periodic reports
are providing detailed information on Bloc foreign economic activities,
methods, and motivation. In addition, economic intelligence has been
providing support for the consideration of proposed US-Soviet Bloc
exchange visits and for United States consideration of disarmament
proposals.
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e? Research has continued on current economic developments,
historical growth trends and long-term economic prospects for selected
countries and major regions of the Free World, Particular emphasis
has been placed on the economic growth problems of underdeveloped
countries bordering the Bloc, including their requirements for foreign
assistance and their ability to sustain given military programs,
Intelligence also has provided ap.;raisals for such problems as the
economic implications of the potential denial of Middle East oil to
the Free World, the implications of peaceful uses of atomic energy for
future ergonomic development, and the relationships between economic
development programs and political stability,
f. Substantial assistance on East-West trade control questions
was provided. by the intelligence community for the Foreign Ministers,
Meeting in Geneva and the Eisenhower-Eden talks in WWFashington. Support
also was provided in a comprehensive evaluation of the economic signifi-
cance of international trade controls against Communist China.
g. During the next three years,, improved research techniques
together with expected increases in new data should. assure further
progress in the economic intelligence field. Increased research
efforts, guided. by established priority national intelligence
objectives, should bring marked improvement in our estimates of:
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9, international Communism
The Committee on International Communism was established by the I'1C
on 214 January 1956: (a) to consider and recommend appropriate action in
this field on matters related to: (1) national intelligence requirements
and priorities; (2) agency intelligence requirements; and (3) means of
coordination to meet national and agency intelligence rcquireraents; and
(b) to consider developments in the international Communist movement
insofar as they relate to requirements. The committee is currently
bringing to completion the assembly of necessary information on the
present situation in this area but has not yet progressed to the point
where an adequate three-year forecast of activity can be made.
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