Annual Review of Activities and Accomplishments

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00283R000200050021-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 1998
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: August 17, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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TO : EIC Secretariat
THRU : Chief's D/I
DATE: 17 August 1955
FROM s Chairman, Subcommittee on Industrial Machinery and Equipment of the
EIC
SUBJECT : Annual Review of Activities and Accomplishments
1. The report covers the period from approximately 1 November
1954, the date on which the appointment of the present officers were
approved by the EIC, through 30 June 1955,
2. The Activities of the Subcommittee for F! 55
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The subcommittee has given its attention to two basic
activitie ss
a. The evaluation and development of agreed estimates.,
b. The discussion of substantive research published by member
agencies of the IAC.
While both activities are important per , they also are
essential first steps for the preparation a considered atatement-of
priority research deficiencies. It is the present plan to complete the
latter statement early in calendar 1956.
3, The Agreed Estimates Program
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Thettee launched a careful review of economic estimates
in December 1955. Its memorandum dated 7 April 1955 to the EIC Secretariat
reviewed the work in detail and the coz LusLons of the group. Estimates
for particular commodities within the following commodity group were
evaluated both by and hoc task forces and by the subcommittee as a whole.
1. Machine Tools
2. Motor Vehicles
3. Tractors
4. Anti-friction bearings
5. Heavy Electrical Equipment
6. Agricultural machinery (excluding tractors)
7. Railroad Equipment
8. Abrasives and Abrasive Grain
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The estimates included above represent about 85% of all
estimates prepared bey IAC agencies in the capital equipment field.
Special attention was directed to estimates for the JSSR both because
this is the most important producing area of the Bloc and because
research in this area had been much more intensive. Considering the
time of the ad hoc groups and the subcommittee, about 300 man hours
were put into+t effort.
A detailed evaluation of results will be found in the summary
referred to above. Briefly, it was revealed that there are no conflicts
in estimates for between 65 and 70% of the commodities reviewed. While
some of the differences in the other 30A-35% ire resolved, a hard core
of differences remained. The reasons for these were not forth in the
subcommittee's detailed evaluation as follows:
"In most cases differences in estimates can be traced to differences
in methodology or in the reliability attached to sources. With
respect to the latter, each Agency appears to have developed more
or less general guide lines. For instance, the Air Force analysts
generally discount published USSR reports; the CIA analysts
generally accept them barring some clear evidence to the contrary.
Because of this tendance toward an Agency wide evaluation of
source material, the individual analysts found it very difficult
to reconcile their differences."
"A review of methodological differences revealed that the Air
Force analysts, because ctf their interest in capacity, placed
More emphasis on individual plant studies than did the CIA
analyst. However, even when both analysts made extensive use
of plant study techniques, differences arose because of
differences in objectives."
4. The Disc iss ion of Substantive Papers
During the period the Subcommittee discussed six substantive
papers relating to its field of interest. Copies of summaries of the
group discussions are attached.
The following papers were considered:
Ferrous Metallurgical Equipment in the USSR (C PR 105)
The Role of the Tractor Industry in the U=,# 19 054 (CTA/RR 37)
Production of Diesel and Oil d gi nes in the USffit (CTAI PR-100)
Production of Agricultural Machinery in the USSR (CIA/RR-48)
The Machine Tool Industry in the USSR (GIA/BR 47)
The ISactsine Tool Industry of Mast dermal (CIA/#d; PR 8?)
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In the substantive discussion of the above reports there
appeared consistently a general unanimity of opinion regarding the
technological development of the equipment, the principal producing
centers, distribution and stocks, and the conclusions to be drawn
from study of the industry. Variance in estimates of production rates
resulted in some instances frcen differing types of methodological
approach to the problem, but frequently reflected normal revisions of
estimate owing to the availability of more recent information, or to
industry developments in the period since publication of the report.
With similar consistency certain deficiencies in the tools
of research are becoming apparent. It...was-developed that differences..
exist among the participating agencies in definition of certain bi e
terms, such as the concept of "capacity" within industries. It is
hoped further discussions may assist in bringing about the evolution
of a standard terminology covering the basic forms of measure employed
in evaluation of industrial development. ileanwhile, the knowledge that
such differences of definition exist, and their character, permits
more accurate comparison of the evaluations by the various participants
of the capabilities of an industry under consideration.
Need appears to exist also for the reporting of statistical
data in more than one type of measure, to facilitate more ready use
of such material. Value measures should, where practicable, be supple-
mented by quantitative estimates in other applicable forms, such as
numbers of units, or metric tons.
It was generally agreed that inclusion of a reasonably full
discussion of the methodological steps is necessary if the statistical
data are to be used to serve the regairements of an individual consumer.
5. Progg!Lng of Research Priorities
As noted above, the subcommittee has deferred action on priority
research deficiencies until the completion of the current review. However,
it should be emphasised that the subcommittee is not overlooking this
responsibiLlity. Rather it feels that the process of self-eduction which
is inherent in both the Agreed Estimate Program and the Review of Sub-
stantive Research is a prerequisite. Deficiencies are brought to light
by considering disagreement in estimates and by systematic study of
published research.
6, Evaluation of the Role of the Subcommittee
There is no question but that the subcommittee has made a
useful cosztribution to a bettor understanding of Sino-Sovut Bloc
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capital equipment trends.. Moreover, by Providing a forum for dis-
cussion there is a better understanding of the special problems of
economic measurement in this field. There is, as a result of the
subcommittee's activity, a wider knowledge throughout the Intelligence
Community of the material available and its reliability. Analysts
working in the same field have been brought together to discuss common
problems. The subcommittee members are now much better informed con-
current research activities within the IAC agencies than
~oree and this should serve to reduce even further the duplication
of research effort.
All members of the subcommittee have taken this responsibility
eerioualy. Attendance at meetings has been uniformly excellent and
participants have been well prepared. While the subcommittee feels
that it has a first problem of placing a large quantity of completed
research in proper prospective, it views its function as a continuing
one of coordination and guidance in research planning.
Carrying through the program of review which the subcommittee
outlined for itself has been time consuming. Meetings were scheduled
initially for about two and one half hours per week. However, competing
demands on members' time soon made it clear that this schedule was too
rigorous. Accordingly, the meetings were scheduled for one morning
every other week. The schedule was adhered to until 7 July 1955, at
which time a recess was voted to 114 September. JOwever, the work load
o members remains the single most important impedimer f_r
Px'Ogress. ~ta ; a'tmast ce hey, WiII" let "amp oved.
7. Future Programs of the Subcommittee
a. By 1 December 1955 it is planned to con late the review
of substantive research.
2. Beginning in December, the subcommittee will prepare a
draft of priority research deficiencies in the capital
equipment sector. It is hoped to have this coVleted by
the middle or end of February.
3. The subcommittee plans to continue its review of substantive
research and to get itself in a position to conduct this
review before publication,
To the extent that time allows, the subcommittee would like
to initiate discussion of a aeries of substantive research
questions. The following are illustrative,
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(a) What are the mearongs of the "capacity" concept as they
are used in the Intel7.igence Community? Can a unifo'm
concept be adopted?
(b) How satisfactory are the various methodological approaches
to capital equipment measurement? Which have proved most
fruitful for answering what sorts of questions? Are other
approaches, not yet tried' worth trying?
(c) How should new information be integrated into existing
reports?
(d) What mechanisms can be proposed for more efficient into.
gration of capital equipment research in the Intelligence
Community?
OflR/D/l/ D; Jg (18 August 1955)
Distributions
0 & 15 - Addressee
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