Intelligence Gaps as Revealed by NIE-32

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 1998
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: July 2, 1951
• Content Type: MF

Approved br Relea U& r% 82-002 1 I'860Y2 4
2 my l ~l
MEMORANDUM FOR THE INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
SUBJECT: Intelligence Gaps as Revealed by NIE-32
1. The preparation of NIE-32 was marked at every stage by the paucity
of reliable- intelligence concerning the military, political, and economic
situation of Communist China, and concerning Sino-Soviet relations. There
are obviously serious problems of intelligence collection in this area, but
the difficulties that were experienced in producing NIE-32 have made all
participating agencies increasingly aware that the information required
is vital to the security interests of the US and must, if possible, be
obtained.
2. c. The scope and nature of Soviet military aid to
e Chinese ommunis s. --With the possible exception
o military aircra , there is practically no reli-
able information available on this subject. Although
CIA probably has a major role in the collection effort
in this field, other agencies could make a conixibuution.
e. The nature and extent of the Communist build-
hi
Upyll LJVa via .
e erminin inoso Communist capabilities for aggression
against Southeast Asia and Hong Kong.
3. The economic information available to all participating agencies
was insufficient to permit a firm estimate on the amount and composition of
im ports into Communist China during the past year.
1. d. The effectiveness of Western trade restrictions on
the chino se cmmuni economy*
e. The kinds amount, and places of origin of strategic
1;oo s entering- Comunis China in con ravention of ? roc-
roJ-S .
The scale and nature of Soviet assistance to Communist
ina.
WILLIAM L. LANGER
Assistant Director
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-6b I Od61&9"6022-4
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
SAZIP+E REPORT ON THE STATUS
OF
ECONC IC I TMLIGE CE RESEARCH PROJECTS
IrIhIst Agriculture and Services
Proposed
In Date of
Project No. Subject Planned Initiated Process Completion
Electric Power
oRR/7-51 High Tension Transmission
Network of the Ura38 Area
r~i r ~sr r
u. ~ m
Date Of
Completed Sts d7
33-6 mos. RS
*BE Brief Estimate
RU - Research Memo
(3 as than l m?0 study
ES - Research Study
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
EIC P. (S )
.,..arm p^ ?^~ rp+~~~
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Project No.
Subject Planned
Initiated
In
Process
Proposed
Date of Date
C l ton Completed
Labor
ORR/8-51
Industrial Geographic Div-
tribution of USSR Manpower
Jul t
x
3-6 mos
ORR/9? 1
Analysis of Education in
the USSR
July
x
3$6 mos.
*BE - Brief Estimate
RCS Research Memo
(less than 1 no, study)
RS Research Study
(more than 1 mom study)
*TYPQ
of
Study
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Planned
in Date of
Project No. Subject Planned Initiated Process Completion
Transportation
Soviet Orbit
ORR/10-51
Limitations of Rail Trans-
portation Capabilities
between USSR and Western
Europe
ORR/11.-51. Volume and Character of
Soviet-Flag Ocean Traffic
ORR/12-51 Volume and Character of
Satellite4'1ag Ocean Traffic
ORR/13>51 Volume and Character of
Soviet Orbit Inland
Water Transportation
ORR/]IL .
oRR/15.1
ORR/16-51
oRR/17W51
Inventory of Soviet Orbit
Motor Vehicles
Transportation of Petroleum
and Petroleum Products in USSR
Role of Air Transport in the
Soviet Union East of Urals
The Caspian Sea: Port Capabilities,
Volume of Traffic, Fleet Inventory
- Brief 'Estimate
BM - Research-Memo (less than ]. nm? a study) ~.
RS - Research Study' (rare than 1. m o,- stu )
r w e.+
q ~O
3-6 mos. RS
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
x 3-6 mos.
x 3-6 mos.
Date of
July x
3-6 mos.
July x 3-6 mhos
July x 3-6 mos.
July x 3?6 ma
July x 3-6 moo.
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Proposed *Type
Tn Date of Date of
Pro ect No. Subject Planned Initiated Process i St
NoneSoviet Areas
European Railroad System
*BE - Brief Estimate
RM - Research Mom (leas than 3. floe study)
RS Research Study (more than 1 mo., study)
14 Feb 51 x 30 Sep 51
-3.
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
? i i'e i i l'. li il'. ! I.I! ert!~PI! t i' ille,iS PM9! I lil9 i':nip '?i .. i!rlM I '.1? -,,.-'1. ..__
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Project No. Subject
Trade and Finance
Soviet Orbit
In
Plated Initiated Process
ORR/18$1 Soviet Orbit Total Trade
Statistics (by major cate-
gories,, value and volume, idth
the free worlds with special
emphasis on country'
country totals, and discrepi
ancies between intelligence
totals and officially reported
statistics)
ORR,fL9.1 Soviet Zones' (Austria and
Gexrmany) Exports to the Rest
of the Orbit,. and the Rest of
the Orbit's Investments in the
Soviet Zones
OR/2O-51 Principles and Methods for
Analysis of Soviet Budgetary
Allocations to Mitary
Expenditures
ORR/MP47 Gross National Product and
Military Expenditures for 1952
for the USSR and Eastern Europe
ORR/MP. 6 A Comimmist Analysis of China's
Economic Problems (review of
China's Economic Problem by
ev
July
July X
July X
July
Proposed *Type
Date of Date of
Completion 2221~- Stud-
3-6 moss
3.6 moo,
3.6 nos. 20 Jul 51 1
3-6 mos.
*BE -? Brief Estimate
"
--
RM Research Memo (less than
1 moo study)
RS - Research Study (more than
,.
o
1 MD. study)
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
eat Noe .
W~Ject Planned
Initiated
in
Process
Proposed *TYM
Date of Of
Completion 3d
Eoonasd.c Organization
Soviet Orbit
ORR/21-51
Economic Organization of USSR
July
3-6 moo o
(RR/22 1
',* Mechanismsp
Economic Plans,, PUMdWr
July
3-6 moo,
ORR/2341
and Procedures of the USSR
Economic Organization of the
Ju3,y
x
3.6 moo,
ORR/21$1
European Satellites
Economic Organization of China
July
x
3-6 moo
*BE .. Brief Estimate
RU - Research New
(less than 1 moo study)
RS - Research Study (more than 1 moo study)
5<
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R00010018002.2-4
Project No. Sabit P3maied Init
Industrial
Soviet Orbit
O R R / 6ul I n p u t Re it of
Ammunition PTvA-,jPt:1rm in
the Satellite Countries'
(Csechoslovakias Po]and#
SovZone Cermaxy'$ Scone
Austria$ Htmgarya Rumania,
Albania, Bulgaria., and China)
ORR/27e51 Ag .+c. alturaJ. Machine Production
in the USSR
O W28-51 Industrial inatrwnents in Orbit
ORR/29- l Periaahable Tooling In the Orbit
ORR/3o -51 machine Tool Production--
ORB/31$1 InputRequf re Of ents ( Soviet Tank
and Self.Propelled geapc
Production
QER/32-51 Input Requirements of the Submarine
and Shipbuilding Industry of USSR.
ORR /3 -5l Shipbuilding Component Production
in Czecho l a
x 3-6 mos.
3.6 moso
3.6 mos
3.6 moo.
3-6 mos.
a 3-6 mos.
X 3-6 mos.
*N - . ief Estimate
PM - Research Me= (ices than I ,, study)
RS - Research Study (more than l mo. s eudy) _ _ WPM
Approved For Release :`~C -RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
July x 3-6 mss.
of
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
,m on
i~M ~r N
O M
Project ~To?
Subject Pl of ted
Initiated
In
Procea$
Proposes',
Date of
oRR/3! . 1
Shipbuilding Cent Pron.
July
x
3-6 r v
37751
ctian in the Soviet Zone
Input Rem - to of Torpedo
July
x
3-6 mos.
OPJ?/3841
Production in the USSR and
Satellites
Aircraft Input Requirements
July
x
3-6 mos o
ORR/39--51
of the USSR
Aircraft Inatru t Pr oductio-.
3?6 mos.
ORR/ hO .
USSR and Satellites
Constraction EquGipm .at in WSR
July
3-6 mos
OP-%/41--51
Diesel .ne Production in iISSR
My
x
3-6 mono
ORR/ 2-51
Carbon and Graphite Electrode
July
x
3-6 mos?
ORR/h3?>51
Production and Requirements in
the Soviet Orbit
Bear ngua.r.Production and Require..
3-6 mos.
rents in the Satellites
-?5 . Engineering industries or sov.
x
3-6 mos.
Zone GermaW
Brief Estimate
Res? arch Maw (less than 1 mm study)
Research Study (mare than l.. moo study)
S "Q
~ 6
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
*Tne
Date Of
feted S
RS
RS
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
nNhotrial (C .)
ORR/45-51
Heavy t ectricai Maebtu y in orbit
Ju
3-6 mm
oml 1
T ectron Tube Industry in Orbit
July
3-6 moa
ORRA7 1
Electronic Co nents Industry.
in the Orbit
July
x
3-6 ffios.
ORR/18.1
Electric Wire and Cable Industry
in the Orbit
July
x
3-6 mos.
go Brief Estimate
Fri - Research Uemo
(less than 1 moo sttuy)
RS - Research Study
(more than 1 moo study)
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Pxoect No* Subject
lricu1.
General
Proposed *TYW
in Date of Date of
Maned Initiated Proomu CT3)Ietian Cr lew Study
ORW/56 World S=~=7 of C Produc-
tion and Trade with Partic il ar
Emphasis on the Soviet Bloc
and US Positions
Soviet Orbit
0MV50-51 USSR Cain Production for 1950 18 July
3?6 mos.
by Regime
ORR,/51--51
Cotton Production in the USSR
July
x
3-6 mos.
ORR/ 52-x.
Weathez+op Correlation for
European USSR
Jut
x
3-.6 mos.
ORR/5343.
Livestock and meat Pxoducts
in USSR
3?'6 bas.
3.6
ORR/54-51
Trade in Agriauitu2al. Products
in the Soviet Orbit
3-6 mos,
oW55 .
Wool Production for 1951 in the
Soviet Orbit
MIV
3.6 mos
*BB - Brief Fet to
RBI - Research LL-w (loss than 1. m. " study)
RS - Research Study (more than l moo study)
-A
7-
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
 Approved For Relea -RDP82-00283RO00022-4
rrov2se NO, sub
jq4
Non Ferrous Metals
Soviet ox' 4-
ORR/57-;1. Consumnptions, Stocks and
Imports of Copper Lead,
and Zinc in the Soviet
Orbit
ORR/58.51 Aluminum Requirements and
Distribution in the Soviet
ambit
OPJV60-51 Production arxd Uses of Lith-
ium and Beryl in the Soviet
Orbit
ORR/61-51 Fluorspar Industry in the
Soviet orbit
3-6 mos.
July x 3-6 mess
July x 3-6 mos.
Non-Soviet Areas
ORI -358 The Physical Installations 16 July x I Oct.
and Transportation Facilities
of the Manganese Industry in
Brasil
ORR/IM-359 A Study of the Facilities of the
Aluminum, Nickel, and Platinum
Industry in Canada
*BF - Brief Ratimate
zRN - Research memo (less than l month study)
RS - Research study (more than 1 month stir)
16 July x i Sept.
Type
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
x 3-6 mos.
Date of Date of
Planned inifdated In Process C etion . Co eted I St
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Date Proposed
Type
Project NO.
nkLm-t PI=)ed
i n i t i a t e d
In Process
C o ~ l e t i o n CgsgEw
study*
Sol .d Fuel
owe O t
ORR/63-.1
Coal Distribution is the
July
x
3-6 mesa
BS
USSR
OPJV64-51
Coal in Ch1na
July
x
3-6 mos.
RS
Orf 6S-S1
Coal in SovZcne Austria
July
x
3-6 oa?
RS
OR$/66-51
West European Coal Balance
July
x
3-6 mos.
RS
oRR/67-
Equipment Requirements of
July
x
3.6 cams.
RS
USSR Coal Industry
,*BE - Brief; Estimate
RK -? Re search 745emo (less than 1 month stuar)
RS d Research Study (more than 1 month study)
-9>
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
f~. ~. I ~. i iif fn ~.II II 'nmf'ffll ~ ~.-.: nr ? N fll'fll li Ili '.ml~l '~ ~I "f II i'P '~wU I'19rtfl
I of Ian nnnnndmlrt I ~ ~ ,.,. ~~ o n numlm a oil I nin?Ilen~~lRr~i
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Pled Initiated In Procs
Ferrous Pdetals
-
_
0RRJ6so-51
Yret Or"
9;
Current Status of New Steel
x
3-6 mono
W70-51
Production Additions in the
usSR.
Supply of Iran and Steel
July
x
3.4 mos.
ORR/71-51
Scrap in Soviet Orbit
Western J u rope Iron and
x
3-6 mos.
Steel Itustry
*BE - Brief Estimate
R Y - Research o (less than 1 month study)
RS - Research Study (more than 1 month study)
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Propomd Type
Date of We of
Cstud
e
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
proposed
Type
Date of
Date
of
M &A P1=wd I n i t i a t e d
I n l o
C tion 902Leted
St
Liquid Fuel
QRR/72.51
Soviet 014)ilt
Stockpiles of Petroleum in
3-6 mos.
f 73-51
the Satellites
Distribution of Petroleum
3-6 wog6
ORR/74-51
Products in the USSR
Petroleum Refining in the
x
3-6 moa,
oRR/7605.51
USSR
Soviet Zone-Austria Petroleum
Jul?
3-.6 mos`o
RS
0RE/78.51
Synthetic Petroleum Production
Judy-
x
3-6 mos.
CRR t 50.57:
in the USSR
NonSoviet Areas
Soviet Use of Iranian oil
July
x
3-6 mos.
ORR/77-.51
Western Em-apean Petroleum
My
x
3-6 mos.
ORR/IP-220
The Effect on the Ecac*nic
x
3.9 July
23 July
Rid
Stability of Iran of a
British Withdrawal
*BE - Brief Estimate
RM - Research Memo (less than 1 month study)
ES - Research Stutr (more than 1 month study)
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
.III II Il lltt tllll I IIII'III"IIII III II IyMl'N1 1
 Approved For Release CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
MEMO
ORR/90-51
World Situation in Sul-
phur and Pyrites
Soviet Orbit
x
3-6 moo
ORR/79 51
Soviet Orbit-Explosive
Industries
x
3-6 mos.
ORI /80.5].
USSR-Phosphorous Iriduetry
July
x
3-6 mos.
Om/8151
USSR-Tetraetbyl Lead Industry
July
x
3-6 moe.
OMV82?-51
Soviet Orbit-Rayon Tire Cord
July
x
3.6 mos.
ORR/83 51
Soviet Foreign Trade in
Selected Strategic Chemical
items
July
x
3-6 moa.
OM/8751
Soviet Orbit-Motor Vehicle
Tires
x
3-6 moa.
4/x-51
Satellitee-Coke Chemicals
July
3..6 mos.
89-51
Soviet Orbit-Chemical Equip-
ment
July .
3-6 mos.
8-51
Western Europe-Capabilities
for Strategic Chemicals
x
3-6 mos.
ORR/85-51
Western Europe-Tetraet`hyl
Lead Industry
x
3-6 mos.
ORRI66-51
Western Europe-Heavy. chemical.
Industries Chlorine Carbidees
. muonia9 Sulphuric Arid,
July
x
3-Y6 mos.
Approved For ReleasRDP82-00283R000100180022-4
RS
iIXItl'u!'ul'gl!lllktlt' I ml IAIto 'm 9' ~n7'PomIA nn"49 F'r IIIIl1u11 '1
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Area An is
Proposed *Type
Projec In Date of Date of
Project No. Subject Pl d Initiated Process Completion C0lew~ Study
Soviet Orbit
oRR/61. Part I
Ada:
Bulgaria.
Rw Mnia
Hungary
Poland
Ceschoslovakia
Eastern GerrnaxW
Part II
The Economic Significance of
the Satellite Countries to USSR
Criteria for the Selection of x
Key Industries and Commodities
for a Research Program on the USSR
Analysis of the Economic ;x
Significance of East Austria
to the War Potential of the
Soviet Bloc
*33E - Brief Estimate
E .i - Research Memo (less than 1 mo. stu y)
ES > Research Study (more than l mo, study)
May
May
May
may
May
19 Jul 51 ES
25 Jul 51
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Proposed
In ? Date of
Date
No. Subjects Plenn Thitiated Prod Coaapletim Completed - S
Arm Anais (Cont.)
The Main Industrial Areas X
of the USSR (Hap, developed
in cooperation with D/G)
Development of a Standard X
of Measurement of Physical
Volume of output in the
Soviet Orbit Countriea
Strategic Importance to the x
Soviet Orbit of Selected
US Export Control Items Not
Agreed to by 0000M for Parallel
Action
z ,+ rr .r~ m
-13-
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
ORR// Relationship between Technola- x
gical Change and Productivity .
as Applied to the Soviet Union,
UK, and US
*BE - Brief Eedimate
Rai - Research Memo (less than l moo "study)
RS - Research Study (more than l moo study)
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Project No, Subject
A Anal sis (Gout,
Non Soviet Areas
Pmd Initiated
OR/ - Analyuis of the Impact of x
US Economic Aid to Africa
in the Production of
.Strategic Commodities and
their Elder to the US
The Production of Strategic
Commodities in India in Rela-
tion to Economic Assistance
Programs
Establishment and Tmplementa- x
tion of a Watch List File of
Names of Firms and Individuals
whose Ting and Related
Activities Are Suspected of
Being Contrary to US Socurit*r
Interests
Analysis of Soviet Procurement x
Efforts in Certain Non-Orbit
Areas (including Latin America'
Indonesia' Africa, and India)
*BE Brief Estimate
To - Research Memo (lead than 1 mom ' stud r)
RS - Research Study (more than 1 no, study)
-13-
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Proposed *Type
In Date of Date of
Process Completion Completed Studer -
" ". r. :. ~:..,. ,.ammr .riu ,:: .rr r.,,. i~,,. #eA"9P r1 Nnipiaml7ARIIlAMRi r ,,.gP1.! u~ vl%Igf!I IfIPR PRI#%M!RNIAPIp MM# nll 14r ml i. lira tx% tm? i,re
 Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
Carto caphic
Proposed
in Date of Date
Planned. Initiated Process Completion Coarpleted
. ORR/Mir 2
1 IIp-GAD t The Geographic
Service of the German Ar%W
x
x
1 Aug 51
GR t-16
Overseas Members of the French
Unions Structure of Area
Administration
1Sep51.
ORR, ..i't
The Norm 4JSSR Bovndary
3.6 Jul 51
1Oct51
ORR/} 18
The Fin and-.USSR Boundary
16 Jul 51
ORR,/M.ii19
The Southwestern Frontier of
16 Jul 51
x
H--646" _F+"
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180022-4
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