AD HOC MEETING ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE MINUTES OF MEETING HELD IN ROOM 2436, 'M' BUILDING 5 NOVEMBER 1951

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00283R000100180006-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 1998
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: November 8, 1951
• Content Type: MIN

8 November 1951
Minutes of Meeti held i"i.
5 November 1951
25X1A9a
Drs Max F., Mi hikan,, CIA, Chairman
Mr. Edward Doherty, State'
Mr. Howard Wiedemann, State
Lt. Colonel George B. Russells Amy
Cdr. Donald C. Deane, Navy
Dr. James To Lowe, Air Force
Dr., Edward Allen, Air Force
Captain Charles M. Heberton, JCS
Colonel Edwin Mo . Cahill, JCS
n, C.IA, Secretax .
CIA
Nominations are to be communicated to , CIA, before Friday, 25X1 A9a
9 Novara
go Each age nay and the JIG "Red Team': are to submit ncxn3ria-
tions to a Working Group for which CIA will provide the Secretariat.
1. The meeting was convened to discuss a procedure for producing
a study on the economic capabilities for war of '4',he USSR and its
Satellites. The Intelligence Advisory Committee has instructed that
this study should be undertaken through the Econ,:fmic Intelligence
Committee. (See IAC4(-5Q dated 1 November 1951.',,
PROCED ^= AND RESPONSIBILITY
2. The following general agreements were r gads regarding pro-
cedure and responsibility for producing the stud -z
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b. Part One (War commencing 1 July 1952) is scheduled for
completion by 1 February and should be considered first by the
Working Group. Initially, at least, this wi U be an ixIC product
and not a National Intelligence Estimate.
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C. CIL will prepare an outline of the project for conatidera-
tion by the Working Group at its first meeting. This group will then
prepare data sheets and a more detailed outline for consideration
by the SEC. In addition this group will consider such questions as
the general rationale of the paper, the methodology to be employed,
the additional assumptions that are required and the list of items
to be covered. The Joint Intelligence Group memorandum on this
subject (JIGM-277-51) will serve initially as a general guide for the
project.
d. The Working Group may set up whatever subcommittees are
necessary to consider problems on which more than one agency can
be of assistance (e.g. production, inventory, and requirements for
trucks).
e. It is intended that a group consisting of the permanent
members of the BIC and representatives of the JIG "Red Team" will
.keep in close touch with the Working Group and will provide constit
guidance to the development of the project. Final judgments on
major aspects of the paper and allocation of production responsibility
will be considered by this EIC ad hoc group. In the designation of
production responsibilities, theyi consult the JIG memorandum
referred to above.
ASSUMPTIONS
3. It was agreed that although the assumptions stated in the
JIG memorandum are to be used as a guide by the Working Group for
Part I,, they are to be modified and supplemented by the assumptions
following:
a. It is assumed that war comes as a surprise to the Soviet
Bloc. As a corollary, it is assumed that there is no acceleration
in Soviet Bloc production for military purposes in anticipation of
a war beginning at a particular time.
b. ~+It is assumed that cold war conditions will, apply through
1 July 1952.
cq The war in Korea is assumed to continue to mid-19520
d. In analyzing such problems as replacement, inventories of
military end items are assumed to be the same at the beginning and
the end of the period under consideration. Initially, it will be
assumed in the analysis that there will be no net reduction in
stocks. However, in later stages of the analysis, there will be
consideration of the extent to which stocks will, be drawn down to
meet requirements.
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e. The assumptions pertaining to stockpiles of supplies
are tae same as those in d above. The geographic location of
the more important bulk stocks should be provided even though
they may only be rough guesses,
4. The assumptions noted in the JIG meonorandum,.including those
in the footnotes on page 5, still obtain except insofar as they have
been modified or added to by points a through a above.
5. Detailed assumptions underlying the estimates of attrition and
time phasing will be provided by the Joint Logistic#. Planning (coup.
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Secretary
Economic Intelligence Committee
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