HYDROLOGICAL REPORTS AND FORECASTS: INTRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00039R000200080011-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: R
• Document Page Count: 31
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 7, 2012
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: July 15, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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5 oU rce ; Godrologiche$kiye Znformatsii i
Prognozy, 1945, Russian bk, tp 3-46
Pro e55o'. - . ~,$ ~0V qtr b _c~
N(5
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: 'v .
HYDROLOGICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
Professor B. A. Apollov
Doctor of Technical Sciences
'STAT
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~, 1. THE IMPORTANCE OF HYDROLOGICAL DATA AND FORECASTING
TO THE NATIONAT, ECONOMY AND THE DEFENSE OF THE COUNTRY Er~
The life of mankind is closely related to water. Since
the dawn of history, man grasped the importance of water and its
indispensability to life itself, deified it, worshiped it, and
wove it into many of his legends, water is the cotraveler of
every culture. Its presence was instrumental in the creation and
the growth of cities; its absence resulted in deserts. It has
always been instrumental in the propagation of life, and it con-
tinues to play this part to our very day.
In his urge to dominate nature, man, gradually discarding
his religious prejudices, embarked upon a struggle with the des-
tructive forces of water, for the subjugation of its riches and
power to his own use, and continuously, from year to year, in the
course of centuries, he penetrated its mysteries and registered
wondrous victories over it.
Water is not always benevolent to man. In the course of
time it occurs that flooded rivers strike at the peaceful flow
of the economic life of the people, inundate cities, tillages,
crops, and wipe out great values, carrying death and destruc-
tion in their wake.
Water is one of the mighty elements of nature, and in or-
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dsr to utilize its potentialities In the most rational manner, in
keeping with our objectives, it is not only necessary to know the
past and present characteristics of its cycle, but also to be
t
able to foresee the future characteristics. This forecasting
}
ability allows the necessary time to take measures providing for
the rational utilizatim of waters, as well as for countermeasures
against the oncoming disasters.
Hydrological forecasts of the cycles of rivers and seas,
and hydrological data in general, are required by the most varied
branches of the national economy and the defense of the country,
assuming a paramount, frequently decisive, importance in time of
war,
Hydrological forecasts are particularly important with re-s
lation to the problem of floods, which constitute a national ca1a.
mity. Figure 1 is a cut showing the flooded city of Omsk on the
Irt'tysh River. The flood occurred on 4 May l92, when, due to
obstructions, the water level attained the unusual height of
79$ centimeters, piling up damages into the millions and causing
a great loss of lives, The highest flood on record until then oc-curred in 1892, with the flood level at 652 centimeters.
Figure 1, The flooded city of Omsk, 4 May l92$
A disaster of exceptional dimensions occurred at Alma-Ata
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in 1921, when or. 8 June a heavy rain brought on tremendously des
t ctive flood waters, which bore down upon the city, oarrying Of
houses and human bungs in their wake.
In 1931, the swollen waters of the Dnepr River caused treM
ous destructian. A number of villages and some cities were
mend
inundated; many important industrial plants were threatened; tele-
graph lines were partially destroyed and comrnun.cations disrupw
ted; and only becai.xse of exceptionally strong countermeasures, the
losses, in a number of cases, were kept to a minimum.
Of great interest to the hydrological forecasting service
are the limits of the rather frequently recurring floods in Lenin-
grad, particularly the disastrous flood of 23 September 1924 (see
ttNews of the Central Hydrometeorological Bureau TsUMOR, No 1925).
An unprecedented flood occurred in January 1937 in the Uni-
ted States of America, when the Ohio and Mississippi rivers went
on a rampage (Ch. F. Brooks and A. G. Tyssen, t'The meteorology of
the great floods in the eastern part of the United States," the
Oeag~raph'.caeviel~r, XXVII, 1937) . The flood lasted about two
weeks (beginn:i.ng with January 22) and was the greatest in the his--
Cory of the United States. American newspapers devoted much space
to the description of the details of this disaster, which em-
braced a large part of the territory of the United States. The
underlying causes of this flood are considered to be an unusually
severe winter with great. accumulations of snow. The sudden thaws
and ample rains brought about the unprecedented overflow of the
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Ohio and Missi,ssippi? rivers.
. A number of cit:Les were inundated. Some gma1ier settle-
meats were completely wiped out, with a Loss of several hundreds
r hicml Ma a~ ~? ~1937, March). Power-
.4. of lives, (5c~t saa,~,S,. * .
arx ink ~vater wrought tremendous dQS~-
f'ul currents of dirty, s .c
ath washing out railroad trains, disrupting
tructzon in their p ~.l.~ ~'
telegraph and telephone commun .aata.on lines, and depriving en-
fire areas of electric light. In Cincinnati, Ohio, a city of
the streets were transformed into swirling rivers,
half a million,
with trolley car, bust and automotive traffic completely at a
standstill, with factories and plants idle. Three gasoline sto-
rage tanks in the northern part of the city blew up under the tre--
of the swirling waters, with the resulting fires
mendous pressure
spreading to a considerable part of the city.
The areas affected by the flood were struck by epidemics:
tens of thousands suffered with the grippe, pneumonia, etc.
buildings were destroyed by the currents, and
Numerous
over a million people found themselves without shelter. Over a
hundred drown were recorded and many more perished from epi.-
~.n~s
demic diseases.
of 1937 was of such tremendous force that all
The flood
the protective structures, ~, erected after the famous flood of 1927,
turned out to be totally ineffective. However, due to the forced
~
draught mobilization of a huge amount of technical - f~cili.~ies, some
the flood were saved. Thus, the city of
c1t a.es xn the path of
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Cairo, located at the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi
rivers, was held. Cairo was guarded against the river by an
embankment 18.3 meters high to begin with. Yet, it took the
forced draught construction of an additional 0.9 to 1.2 meter
embankment superstructure to save the city from the flood.
The basic underlying cause of these disasters in the
United States is considered to be the arbitrary manner in which
the forest and water resources are controlled. The predatory
destruction of the forests, embracing huge areas, constitutes the
principal reason for the recurrence of droughts and floods, di-
sasters from which the United States of America have been suffer.
ing so extensively during the recent decades.
In France, too, rivers such as the Rhone, Garonne, and
the Loire, bring at flood stage considerable suffering to the
population of the surrounding areas.
The cut shown in Figure 2 shows the inundation in the wes-
tern part of India, along the railroad line at the city of Barod.
The photograph clearly indicates the extent of the disaster.
Figure 2. Flooded railroad tracks in the city of
Barod.
?A task of great responsibil4ty and honor evolves upon the
IIli
'1CJ~i
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forecasting hydrologist, i.e., to warn the population in time
about the impending disasters, thereby affording the opportunity
for adequate preparation and countex'measures.
Thus the forecast of the Volga River flood an 1926 made
possible tamely preparations in a number of places and saved prof
nning into the millions, which othervrise would have been
party ru a
destroyed.
In the cases where great floods are known to occur, spe-
cial flood-combatting conlmission',~ in close liaison with the hyw
drolog'ical forecasting service, are set up for the purpose of
initiating on time the proper countermeasures.
Thus, in 1931, the Kura and the Araks rivers loosed a flood
unprecedented by its force and duration. The countermeasures un-
dertaken found their reflection in a decision by the Council of
People's Commissars AzSSR dated 23 duly 1931? This decision takes
of the fact that, due to the timely countermeasures, only
note
2,000 hectares were inundated as against an area of 22,000 hec-
tares in the flood of 1920.
Item 3 of the above decision is quoted herewith: tiThe
class-consciousness of the kolkhoz and the poor-and-middle peas-
ant masses, their understanding of the politico economical pro-
blems posed by the Party and the Government on behalf of the toil-
ing peasant masses in the business of the socialist reconstruction
of agriculture, resulted in the organization of these masses and
,
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in their hexoic struggle against the flood of 1931.
"Entire districts, individual kolkhoze$, villages, ko1~
khoz members, and individual owners, under the skilled leader-
sliip of local party and Soviet organs, without in any manner de-
tracting from their efforts in the current spring sowing cam-s
paign, conducted a heroic struggle against the flood.
HA considerable number of kolkhoz members and individual
owners from the Agdash area labored several days on end without
rest very often in chest--deep water, in their valiant attempt
to rescue the Soviet cotton crop from the swirling waters of the
Kura.
"The timely assistance of the area, rural, party, and So-.
viet organizations, the selfless devotion of the engineering and
technical personnel, also the personnel of the political organs
and the militia of the AzSSR -.- all these accounted for the posi-
tide results attained in the unusually severe flood of 1931?
ttThe timely investigation of the entire course of the Kura
River segregated the spots of the greatest potential danger, where
the necessary material and inventory stocks were concentrated, a
24-hour continuous patrol established, a technical and human line
of communication established along the entire rock-crumbling front,
etc.
" Tt was due
primarily to the efforts and organizational
activities of the supervisory administrative andpolitical per--
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sonnet, that the cotton crop and the peasant labor invested were
saved from disaster."
The heroic struggle with the June 1936 flood in Central
Asia is described in the "Pravda of the Fast" issue of 3 Tune
1936:
"In the morning of May 31, the riverbed of the Kara-Darya
at Kampyr-Ravat was suddenly shifted to the right of the bridge,
over which the narrow-gunge railroad ran across the Khanabad
stream,
"After thvee hours of pounding by the swollen stream, the
pier showed signs of buckling, and at 1400 hours it was washed
away. Toward the evening the fourth and -sixth piers of the bridge
were washed away. The bridge spans, deprived of their supports,
were hanging precariously over the swirling river. At great
risk, workers, crawling along the shaky spans, finally succeeded
in throwing across some metal cables for the temporary support of
the spans.'
"In the Fergansk area the water forced its way through the
right bank of the Bishka reservoir, flowing along a mountain slope.
After two days of incessant toil, the breakthrough was plugged."
"The work of protecting the 26--kilometer run of the Kuvasay
branch railroad proceeds continuously without a letup."
"The situation at the Tentyaksay Dam is stir, very tense.
The floodwaters have undermined the
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structure of the darn
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xptect~.ve maasuxes u~,der~
xesu1t of wh'.ah the oont~.nuaus p Gan
as a The ~o:~l~.ng warkexs
to a great extent, use1ess?
taken are, Na saonex is
hardly keep up w3.th the fury o the fioadwatexs?
of the flood e'ff ec'bs another
one break reinforced than the fury
a
g
otecting the dam is proceedmn with the id
one. The fob of pr
ck$ , 450 workers, and 74 y
of 24 automat t~ taxh ~?n
a.ve
The abo e against the elements
veMdescribed heroic struggl
~.
ce of timely hYdrolog1aal fore
brin s into Focus the importan
g
casting.
tin becomes particularly im-
portant H dr data and forecas g
yologacal ~s of a planned socialist economy.
under the cond.~taa~
arataaas for the opening and
They insure the . ~? ~.me1.y prep i
~ataon of the wa vigational seasons, the optimum utal
the discontinuance of na ownstream tim-
ber ,ter_level rise in the ravers for d
h droenganeer~-ng proJ ectsalong
floating, and the safety of y the
ogical data is of decisive importance an
the rivers . Hydrol ~ of tam..
siplaadang, the float~.ng
/inning of current shipping,
p
ber, etc.
' to the seasonal water
drological forecasting relating
Hy
Central Asia, Transcaucasia, and, par-
ticularly, an the rivers of Den im ar-
eareas, as of the greatest P
tacu~.ax~-y, an water..shortag and is
of sowing and irrigation of crops,
Lance in the planning
? stru,mental in the saving of hundreds of thousands of eons of
r The great hydrocngxneera.no
cotton and other induatri crop S.
10-
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pxajsetsy such as ya~khovges, DnePxogssr sagas, Svix'staY, the
.
Canal and others, were guidad by spe~
White Sea~Da~.tic Sea Ship ~ a
ecasting serrices, These spew. l
cial hydxo1agical data_and~fax
a act managements with the nscessaxY can~-
sErricas provided the p~' ~
of the staggering dabs at hand, and re-
fidance in the progress
fl $ a b fux~niahing timely warnings an
by
suited in tremendous save g
e aged hydrological phenomena, the know-
impending floods and x ~
was necessary in the aurae of canstxuct~.an.
ledge of which way
rastroy PoDecastang Service was ini~
(Footnotes; The Dnep
the service for Svir' stray was crewed
fisted in March 192, and
in November 1929
H?,,ra1.o~;,~ 1 e"
'kaY, TThe xrta,~ce of
K. P. Mashins.....r
? onam o GUEGMS, Ukrainian SSB, Kiyev,
castin , Via, the N~..:?na~. Ec
11-12, 1936.)
BY the same token, hydrological forecasting is of great
e of the countrY. With the up?-to.-date
importance to the defens
exitr of military science, bodies of water ~~
development and comp/ ~
.... are potential theaters of war. Hy_
as well as the air above
tin is a prerequisite of war operations in
drolagical forecas g
rnishe5 valuable data on future happen'
raver areas, s ince it fu
' h and the f1ow_ve10citY of a river at a gi
ven ings. Thus, the wxdt
e otiability by troops and equip-
t and, consequently, it s n g
related to the
t articular time are phenomena closely
ment at tha p
the forecasts.. The thickness of the
water level, as predicted by
forecast, faci~,itatos the in-
ice cover of a river, when pxopexlY
-11~-
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telligent planning of the impending military a Lion on the ice.
Thus, the newspaper, News oi' the Soviets of workers p .peiutia
USSR, in one of its January 1935 issues reported the case of a
Japanese artillery detachment falling through the ace in its
attempt to cross a raver an Chinese territory. This could have
been avoided had the proper hydrological forecast been available
to the Japanese command,
2, SOME HISTORICAL FACTS ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HYDROLOGICAL DATA AND FORECASTING SERTCE ABROAD
AND IN THE USSR Er '
The progress of hydrological forecasting, as well as of
a number of other sciences, is closely linked to practical de-
mands.
The most ancient of the civilized peoples left behind
them memorials of hydraengineering construction such as dams,
aqueducts, and irrigation systems. There is no doubt that such
hydroengineering construction required not only the understanding
and knowledge of the current cycle of the bodies of water in-
volved, but also the ability to forecast the cycles to came,
During the period of Napoleon I, a French expedition to
Egypt discovered two water-level gauging stations dating back
about 4000 years, These gauging stations (nilometers) were un-
der the jurisdiction of the priests, who watched the water marks
and forecast the crops by the height of the latter, for upon the
Nile attaining its flood stage depended the deposition of the fer-
12 -
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tie river sits that bore the plentiful oxops in the valley of
the Nile,
(Foot of e; In France, at the beginning of the 111 cen.
fury, a water gauging installation was called a nilometre. See,
for exmmp1e, Thomassy, Essal sur, l', dx 1oie, 159, Paris, page
2,)
However, in historical chronicles we find little reference
to the water level and any other forecasting of the hydrological
cycle of rivers, On the other hand, in a whole series of books
dating back to antiquity, we find elaborations upon the various
methods of weather forecasting based upon animal signs, the moon,
the stars, and the like.
Thus, hydz'olagical forecasting, as a part of the science
of hydrology, has no such elaborate "history" as weather fore-
casting - the origin and development of this science pertain to
a later day. However, there is no denying that the study of ri-
ver cycles and attempts at hydrological forecasting were made in
the dim past,
Samuii Georg Gmelin, in his Travels over Russia for the ln-
-~rwipNy.~ti.wa`awrwnw ~_____ ~ wwYnwr~ww
yes ;i.tionw,~af the Three Kingdoms of Nature , in 1771, writes
"The day of 25 April, as per my experiments, T consider to be
the time when the water in the Volga near Astrakhan' begins to
rise; a highly dependable sign, following which the above-~mentjoned
change is to come., is the subsequent color of the Volga, which b
13 -
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j?j
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other wprde, Gme1a.n had o~ase~ed ~.
comes comp~,ete~.y white.~~ In
isa
fld stag
of the impending max:tmumoo e
that an a,ndicata.an o a.mata~.y
in the water, becoming apparent appxo~
strong turbidi'~y
m flood stage, an obsexvata.on a1s0
20 days ahead of the maxima
made by the author thxoughau'b the period of 1923_1932.
The o dxa7.ogical data and Faxecasting seroldest known y
h
? where ex'Lensive Fioods and disasM
vase was ita.a.. ~ed in Franc , emphasized the importance of the problem aF
tors in their wake rl with re1.ation to the most dangerous
forecasting, par'ticul.a Y
rivers. In 1~3Q, an engineer named Beigrand was commissioned
e to study the passibia.ities of fore-
by the Government of Franc n
of the Seine (L. D. Kva.tsinska.y, O ,~
casting the flood stages
..-
Fox tuations in the Water Level and the ~ .-..~ Chan
~ the ~'~.uc .) . Qn~
rs SPB Lt. Petersburg], F396, page 2
nel De th of Rav-e -~'
? ed study of the raver t s hydr?1agical cycle over
~y after a detailed
he be in to publish experimental. Fore-
a period of 20 years, did g
of a limited circle of specia`.ista ?
casts in 1~5Q for the use ? other
studies were made of the Loire, Maas, Garonne, and other sty
n service was organised on the Loire
rivers. The first f orecast'~. g
nnales
in l54 on the Maas in l64 (J ...des
in 1.53 on the Seine a. .~nnale$ des
, ,
Pn1 Chaussees, 1934, page 409)? The forecasting center for
et ,
s
city of Orleans, where a chief engi~-
the Loire River was in the Y
aardinating formation gathered from
Weer, after studying and c
? e made forecasts for locations, as
the entire basin of the Loa.r ,
established by special regulation.
rvice of hydrometric inveata.?
QFficia~..Y, however., the se .
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and flood forecasting (service hydro,ul'arrnoriee e
ores) was etab1ished only in 1876, on the bads of a proposal
by the engineer Gross, after the occurrence of an unusual flood
in 175 that oaused unprecedented suffering and property damage.
This service was engaged in the study of the rivers of
France with a view toward establishing the characteristics of
their cycles, general as well as special; knowledge of these
characteristics was necessary to insure the proper development
of hydrological forecasting. The same service was also concerned
with meteorological phenomena with a view toward establishing the
link between the hydrological and meteorological phenomena; for
example, between the amount of atmospheric precipitation and the
water volumes of the rivers, etc.
In Germany, as far back as 1853, simultaneously with the
introduction of the telegraph, the foundations were laid for a
hydrological data service, concerned primarily with floods of the
Rhine, Elba, Oder, and other rivers. And only in l8$6 were the
first attempts at full--scale forecasting made.
Throughout the period of 1$70-1890, Germany suffered sev-
eral disastrous floods in the basins of the Rhine, Oder, Elba,
and other rivers. These forced the creation of some temporary
commissions to begin with, and later on, some permanent organi-
zations for the study of the causes of these disastrous floods
as well as for the development of countermeasures.
A commission was set up in Eaden in 1893, with the engi-
-l5
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veers Gonzelli and Teyri in chaarge, for the study of the flood
problem of the Rhine
In Prussia, the special Water Committee (Nasser Au$sohuss),
which was established after the disastrous floods of 1885 and
1F391, was instructed by the GoVernment in 1 92 to find the an-
swers to the following direct questions "What are the causes of
the recent floods, and does the existing Prussian system of con-
trolling and regulating the rivers constitute a contributing fac-
tor to the floods and to the disasters in their wake? If the
answer is what are the changes to be introduced into the
existing system of river control? "
Under the supervision of the renowned German hydrologist
Keller, the Water Committee began the extensive work of investi-
gating the rivers. As a result of this research, the Committee
came up with exhaustive answers. These were published in a se-
ries of monographs pertaining to the basins of the Oder, Elba,
Memel, Pregel, Vistula, Weser, and Ems.
In 1902, the W_ assor Aussohuss was abolished, and subse--
quent research was conducted by the Landa talt fur Gewasser_
kunde (Water Economy Control Bureau) in Berlin. Some of the re-
cent research worthy of attention are the investigations of the
Oder floods over the period of 1903-1913, and of the problems
linked with the construction of reservoirs that control the run--
off in the Oder basin. A still more recent work is the detailed
monograph by Helmann and Eisner devoted to the summer flooding
lb
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he iii Oongress of Russian Waterways Personnel, SPR, 1896.)
Beginning with 193, the Kazan' water region of the Mini
stry of Communications introduced regular telegraphic information
on problems of navigation.
The data was telegraphed to Kazan' from Rybinsk, Faro-
slav&, Kostroma, Kineshma, Gorodets, Nizhn:1.y-Novgorod, Chebok-
sar, Simbirk, Samara, Syzran', Vol'sk, saratov, Tsarits-ya, As-
trakhan', Perm', Christopol', and Ufa, From Kazan' the data was
transmitted in the form of a telegraphic bul;Letin to Rybinsk,
Nizhniy-Novgorod, Saratov, and Astrakhan'. The telegraphic bulge--
tin indicated: (1) the water level at the water gauge, and (2)
the depth and the name of the shalowest sandbank, if, since the
previous bulletin, the change in its depth was in excess of 5
centimeters.
Prior to the Great October Revolution, there was very lit-
tie hydrological forecasting in Russia. Some individual hydrolo-
gists placed their forecasts in various departmental memoranda,
in publications, in individual booklets, and in special bulle-
tins. This work was conducted in a sporadic manner and without
any unified plan.
Within the first decade after the Great October. Revolution,
such works became somewhat more frequent, but were still few in
number. The following forecasts were published:
P. B. Mul'tanovskiy, "The expected 'height of the flood stage
1g.
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 A, F. Dynbyuk, "The coming flood and its prognosis for
the city of Pereyaslave'~Zalesskiy, Vladimir guberniya, in 1926,"
I rovedenje, No la, N[ oscow_Leningrad.
A, M. Rundo, (1) "The level of Lake Ladoga in 1922,",
Petrograd 1922' (2) "The impending summer levels of the La-
doga and Onega lakes," Bum]. n, of, the Northwestern Bureau of Wa-
ter _Transortat,, No 15, 1922, Petrograd.
P. M. Yerokhin, "The impending water level at the lower
reaches of the Don River for the spring of 192 tt Bulletin of the
N. Georgiyevskiy, (1) 'The snow cover and the prospects of
the spring flood for 192,' B ain of the North-Caucas a Rail-
-.
Rostov_on-the-Bon, No 13, 192; (2) "The impending flood for
the sprang of 1929," Bulletin of the North-Caucasian Railway No
10, 1929.
Following the Great October Revolution, the coordinated and
planned development of the national economy of the country cal:Led
for ever growing hydroengineering construction, which an turn called
for more hydrological forecasting. The departments began to show
in hydrological forecasting, and the literature devoted
interest ' ~.
Special hydrological forecasting, cells were established
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/07 : CIA-RDP82-00039R000200080011-0
of the Volkhov River in the Spring of 1924,' a~N~... Bud.'
; 21 , No 2, 1924.
Declassified
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