THE MILITARY BALANCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81T00700R000100050009-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: November 17, 1976
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 206?: CIA-RDP81 TOO700R000100050009-0
The Military Balance
1. The military balance on the Korean peninsula is stable
at this time and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
The key elements ensuring stability are the
US-South Korean Mutual Defense Treaty and the
presence of US forces in South Korea.
If US forces were to be withdrawn or were
not immediately available, North Korea would
enjoy a military advantage over the South.
2. While South Korea has an edge in numbers of men under
arms and reserves, a massive military procurement program since
1970 has resulted in major advantages in favor of the North.
North Korea has
-- nearly two-and-one-half times as many tanks
-- one-third more armored personnel carriers
more artillery
over twice as many jet combat aircraft
a three-fold advantage in naval craft.
3. The South has more quality aircraft and better trained
pilots, but the North's superior numbers might exhaust the South's
assets, particularly since Seoul intends to rely heavily on its
air force for ground support.
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4. Strategic elements favoring North Korea.
While Seoul would have certain advantages of being on
the defensive, the North's advantages are significant.
25X1
-- North Korean divisions are largely already in
the formations needed to launch an offensive.
-- Seoul is about 30 miles from the DMZ.
-- The loss of Seoul could severely limit ROK
ability to continue to fight, or even result
in a collapse.
5. ROK lack of supplies could seriously impair the South's
plans to destroy the enemy north of Seoul.
-- Pyongyang
- has well-developed arms industry (except
for missiles and aircraft)
- is believed to have stockpiled sufficient
reserves for a short war (less than 30 days).
-- Seoul
- has no significant arms industry
- has limited reserve supplies
- is heavily dependent on US for resupply and
logistics support.
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6. In sum, we do not believe that South Korea, without the
immediate aid of US combat forces, has the weaponry or reserve
supplies on hand required to negate the North Korean advantages.
(N.B. The intelligence community has not assessed the chances
of 'holding Seoul with the present balance on the peninsula,
i.e. US and ROK against the DPRK. DOD operational
sensitivities being what they are, it is unlikely that
the community will do so.)
Approved For Release 2003fMP29b1A-RDP81 T00700R000100050009-0