( ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 312
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 5, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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 (ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS)
PROJECT NO. 10073
5 MAY 1955
I
a
FOR,
AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER
WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR. FORCE BASE
OHIO
Copy No.
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PROJECT BLUE BOOK
SPECIAL REPORT NO. 14
(ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS)
PROJECT NO. 10073
5 MAY 1955
FOR OFFMA1 USE ONLY
(AFR 190-16)
AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER
WRIGHT -PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE
OHIO
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SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECHANIZED COMPUTATION FORM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Coding System and Work Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Identification of Working Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Evaluation of Individual Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Graphical Presentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Advanced Study of the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Statistical Chi Square Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
The "Flying Saucer" Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
APPENDIX A. TABULATION OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE
DISTRIBUTIONS BY CHARACTERISTICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
APPENDIX B. WORKING PAPER FORMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1 Frequency of Sightings by Year for Object, Unit, and All Sightings . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 2 Distribution of Evaluations of Object, Unit, and All Sightings for All Years . . . . . . . . . 18
Figure 3 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years With Comparisons
of Each Year for Each Evaluation Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Figure 4 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years and Each Year . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 5 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation Within Months for All Years . .. . . . . . . . . 21
Figure 6 Distribution of Object Sightings by Certain and Doubtful Evaluations for
All Years and Each Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Figure 7 Frequency of Object Sightings and Unknown Object Evaluations by
Months, 1947-1952 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Figure 8 Distribution of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups With
Evaluation Distributions for Each Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Figure 9 Distribution of Object Sightings Among the Four Sighting Reliability
Groups for All Years and Each Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 10 Distribution of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, Segregated
by Military and Civilian Observers, With Evaluation Distribution
for Each Segregation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Figure 11 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Colors of Object(s) With
Evaluation Distribution for Each Color Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Figure 12 Distribution of Object Sightings by Number of Objects Seen per Sighting
With Evaluation Distribution for Each Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Figure 13 Distribution of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting With Evaluation
Distribution for Each Duration Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
(Continued)
Figure 14 Distribution of Object Sightings by Months Among the Eight Duration
Groups for All Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Figure 15 Distribution of Object Sightings by Shape of Object(s) Reported With
Evaluation Distribution for Each Shape Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Figure 16 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Speed of Object(s) With
Evaluation Distribution for Each Speed Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Figure 17 Distribution of All Sightings by Observer Location for All Years and Each Year . . . . . . . . 33
Figure 18 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Color, 1947-1952 . . . . . . . . . . 34
Figure 19 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Number of Objects
per Sighting, 1947-1952 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Figure 20 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Speed, 1947-1952 . . . . . . . . . . 36
Figure 21 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Duration, 1947-1952 . . . . . . . . . 37
Figure 22 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Shape, 1947-1952 . . . . . . . . . . 38
Figure 23 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Light Brightness, 1947-1952 . . . . . . 39
Figure 24 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Astronomical
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Astronomical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Figure 25 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Aircraft
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Figure 26 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Balloon
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Balloon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Figure 27 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Insufficient
Information Versus Total Object Sightings Less Insufficient Information . . . . . . . . . . 43
Figure 28 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Other
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Figure 29 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Unknown
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Unknown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Figure 30 Characteristics Profiles of Object Sightings by Total Sample, Known Evaluations,
and Individual Known Evaluations, With Unknown Evaluations Superimposed . . . . . . . . . 46
Figure 31 Frequency of Object, Unit, and All Sightings Within the U. S., 1947-1952, by
Subdivisions of One Degree of Latitude and Longitude . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Figure 32 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for the Twelve Regional Areas of
the U. S., With the Strategic Areas Located . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Figure 33 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
Central East Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Figure 34 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
Central Midwest Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Figure 35 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
Central Farwest Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Figure 36 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
South Midwest Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Figure 37 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
South West Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
(Continued)
Figure 38 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
South Farwest Region . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Figure 39 Diagram of a Celestial Sphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Figure 40 Frequency of Object Sightings by Angle of Elevation of the Sun, Intervals
of 10 Degrees of Angle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Figure 41 Frequency of Object Sightings by Local Sun Time, Intervals of One Hour . . . . . . . . . . 59
Table I Object Sightings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Table II Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Color . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Z
Table III Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Number . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Table IV Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Shape . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Table V Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Duration of Observation . . . . . . 65
Table VI Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . b6
Table VII Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Light Brightness . . . . . . . . 67
Table VIII Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Color . . . . . . . . . 70
Table IX Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Number. . . . . . . . . 71
Table X Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Shape . . . . . . . . . 72
Table XI Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of
Duration of Observation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Table XII Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Speed . . . . . . . . . 74
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Reports of unidentified aerial objects (popularly termed "flying
saucers" or "flying discs") have been received by the U. S. Air Force
since mid-1947 from many and diverse sources. Although there was no
evidence that the unexplained reports of unidentified objects constituted
a threat to the security of the U. S. , the Air Force determined that all
reports of unidentified aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated
to determine if "flying saucers". represented technological developments
not known to this country.
In order to discover any pertinent trend or pattern inherent in the
data, and to evaluate or explain any trend or pattern found, appropriate
methods of reducing these data from reports of unidentified aerial objects
to a form amenable to scientific' appraisal were employed. In general, the
original data upon which this study was based consisted of impressions and
interpretations of apparently unexplainable events, and seldom contained
reliable measurements of physical attributes. This subjectivity of the data
presented a'major limitation to the drawing of significant conclusions, but
did not invalidate the application of scientific methods of study.
The reports received by the U.S. Air Force on unidentified aerial
objects were reduced to IBM punched-card abstracts of the data by means
of logically developed forms and standardized evaluation procedures.
Evaluation of sighting reports, a crucial step in the preparation of the data
for statistical treatment, consisted of an appraisal of the reports and the
subsequent categorization of the object or objects described in each report.
A detailed description of this phase of the study stresses the careful
attempt to maintain complete objectivity and consistency.
Analysis of the refined and evaluated data derived from the original
reports of sightings consisted of (1) a systematic attempt to ferret out any
distinguishing characteristics inherent in the data of any of their segments,
(2) a concentrated study of any trend or pattern found, and (3) an attempt
to determine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observa-
tions of technological` developments not known to this country.
The first step in the analysis of the data revealed the existence of
certain apparent similarities between cases of objects definitely identified
and those not' identified. Statistical methods of testing when applied indicated
a low probability that these apparent similarities were significant. An
attempt to determine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represented
observations of technological developments not known to this country necessi-
tated a thorough re-examination and re-evaluation of the cases of objects not
originally identified; this led to the conclusion that this probability was very
s mall.
The special study which resulted in this report (Analysis of Reports
of Unidentified Aerial Objects, 5 May 1955) started in 1953. To provide the
study group with a complete set of files, the information cut-off date was
established as of the end of 1952. It will accordingly be noted that the
statistics contained in all charts and tables in this report are terminated
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with the year 1952. In these charts, 3201 cases have been used.
As the study progressed, a constant program was maintained for
the purpose of making comparisons between the current cases received
after 1 January 1953, and those being used for the report. This was done
in order that any change or significant trend which might arise from
current developments could be incorporated in the summary of this report.
The 1953 and 1954 cases show a general and expected trend of
increasing percentages in the finally identified categories. They also.show
decreasing percentages in categories where there was insufficient informa-
tion and those where the phenomena could not be explained. This trend had
been, anticipated in the light of improved reporting and investigating pro-
cedures.
Official reports on hand at the end of 1954 totaled 4834. Of these,
425 were produced in 1953 and 429 in 1954. These 1953 and 1954 indi-
vidual reports (a total of 854), were evaluated on the same basis as were
those received before the end of 1952. The results are as follows:
Balloons
- 16%
Aircraft
- 20%
Astronomical
- 25%
Other
- 13%
Insufficient Info - 17%
Unknown - 9%
As the study of the current cases progressed, At became increasingly
obvious that if reporting and investigating procedures could be further improved,
the percentages of those cases which contained insufficient information and
those remaining unexplained would be greatly reduced. The key to a higher
percentage of solutions appeared to be in rapid "on the spot" investigations
by trained personnel. On the basis of this, a revised program was estab-
lished by AF Reg. 200-2 Subject: "Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting"
(Short Title: UFOB) dated 12 August 1954.
This new program, which had begun to show marked results before
January 1955, provided primarily that the 4602d Air Intelligence Service.
Squadron (Air Defense Command) would carry out all field investigations.
This squadron has sufficient units and is so deployed as to be able to arrive
"on the spot" within a very short time after a report is received. After
treatment by the 4602d AISS, all information is supplied to the Air Technical
Intelligence Center for final evaluation. This cooperative program has re-
sulted, since 1 January 1955, in reducing the insufficient information cases
to 7% and the unknown cases to 3%, of the totals.
The period 1 January 1955 to 5 May 195.5 accounted for 131 unidentified
aerial object reports received. Evaluation percentages of these are as follows:
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Balloons
- 26%
Aircraft
- 21%
Astronomical
- 23%
Other
- 20%
Insufficient Info - 7%
Unknown - 3%
All available data were included in this study which was prepared by
a panel of scientists both in and out of the Air Force. On the basis of this
study it is believed that all the unidentified aerial objects could have been
explained if more complete observational data had been available. Insofar
as the reported aerial objects which still remain unexplained are concerned,
there exists little information other than the impressions and interpretations
of their observers. As these impressions and interpretations have been
replaced by the use of improved methods of investigation and reporting, and
.by scientific analysis, the number of unexplained cases has decreased rapidly
towards the vanishing point.
Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it is
considered to be highly improbable that reports of unidentified aerial objects
examined in this study represent observations of technological developments
outside of the range of present-day scientific knowledge. It is emphasized
that there has been a complete lack of any valid evidence of physical matter
in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object.
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INTRODUCTION
In June, 1947, Kenneth Arnold, a Boise, Idaho, businessman and
private pilot, publicly reported the now-famous sighting of a chainlike
formation of disc-shaped objects near Mount Rainier, Washington. Result-
ing newspaper publicity of this incident caught the public interest, and,
shortly thereafter, a rash of reports of unidentified aerial objects spawned
the term "flying saucers". During the years since 1947, many reports of
unidentified aerial objects have been received by the Air Force from many
and diverse sources.
The unfortunate term "flying saucer", or "flying disc", because of
its widespread and indiscriminate use, requires definition. Many defini-
tions have been offered, one of the best being that originated by Dr. J.
Allen Hynek, Director of the Emerson McMillin Observatory of The Ohio
State University, who has taken a scientific interest in the problem of
unidentified aerial objects since 1949. Dr. Hynek' s definition of the term
is "any aerial phenomenon or sighting that remains unexplained to the
viewer at least long enough for him to write a report about it"(1). Dr. Hynek,
elaborating on his definition, says, "Each flying saucer, so defined, has
associated with it a probable lifetime. It wanders in the field of public in-
spection like an electron in a field of ions, until ' captured' by?an explana-
tion which puts an end to its existence as a ' flying saucer"'(1
This definition would be applicable to any and all of the sightings
which remained unidentified throughout this study. However, the term
"flying saucers" shall be used hereafter in this report to mean a novel,
airborne phenomenon, a manifestation that is not a part of or readily ex-
plainable by the fund of scientific knowledge known to be possessed by the
Free World. This would include such items as natural phenomena that are
not yet completely understood, psychological phenomena, or intruder air-
craft of a type that may be possessed by some source in large enough
numbers so that more than one independent mission may have been flown
and reported. Thus, these phenomena are of the type which should have
been observed and reported more than once.
Since 1947, public interest in the subject of unidentified aerial objects
fluctuated more or less within reasonable limits until the summer of 1952,
when the frequency of reports of sightings reached a peak, possibly stimu-
lated by several articles on the subject in leading popular magazines.
Early in 1952, the Air Force' s cumulative study and analysis of
reported sightings indicated that the majority of reports could be accounted
for as misinterpretations of known objects (such as meteors, balloons, or
aircraft), a few as the result of mild hysteria, and a very few as the result
of unfamiliar meteorological phenomena and light aberrations. However,
(1) Hynek, J. A., "Unusual Aerial Phenomena", Journal of the Optical Society of America, 43 (4),
pp 311-314, April, 1953.
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a significant number of fairly complete reports by reliable observers re-
mained unexplained. Although no evidence existed that unexplained reports
of sightings constituted a physical threat to the security of the U. S. , in
March, 1952, the Air Force decided that all reports of unidentified
aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated to determine if "flying
saucers" represented technological developments not known to this country.
Originally, the problem involved the preparation and analysis of about
1, 300 reports accumulated by the Air Force between 1947 and the end of
March, 1952. During the course of the work, the number of reports sub-
mitted for analysis and evaluation more than tripled, the result of the un-
precedented increase in observations during 1952. Accordingly, this study
is based on a number of reports considered to be large enough for a pre-
liminary statistical analysis, approximately 4, 000 reports.
This study was undertaken primarily to categorize the available
reports of sightings and to determine the probability that any of the reports
of unidentified aerial objects represented observations of "flying saucers".
With full cognizance of the quality of the data available for study, yet with
an awareness of the proportions this subject has assumed at times in the
public mind, this work was undertaken with all the seriousness accorded
to a straightforward scientific investigation. In order to establish the
probability that any of the reports of unidentified aerial objects represented
observations of "flying saucers", it was necessary to make an attempt to
answer the question "What is a ' flying saucer' ? ". However, it must be
emphasized that this was only incidental to the primary purpose of the
study, the determination of the probability that any of the reports of un-
identified aerial objects represented observations of "flying saucers", as
defined on Page 1.
The basic technique for this study consisted of reducing the available
data to a form suitable for mechanical manipulation, a prerequisite for the
application of preliminary statistical methods. , One of International
Business Machine Corporation's systems was chosen as the best available
mechanical equipment.
The reduction of data contained in sighting reports into a form suit-
able for transfer to IBM punched cards was extremely difficult and time
consuming.
For this study a panel of consultants was formed, consisting of both
experts within and outside ATIC. During the course of the work, guidance
and advice were received from the panel. The professional experience
available from the panel covered major scientific fields and numerous
specialized fields.
All records and working papers of this study have been carefully
preserved in an orderly fashion suitable for ready reference. These
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records include condensations of all individual sighting reports, and the
IBM cards used in various phases of the study.
Reports of sightings were received by the U. S. Air Force from a.
representative cross section of the population of the U._ S. , and varied
widely in completeness and quality. Included were reports from reputable
scientists, housewives, farmers, students, and technically trained mem-
bers of the Armed Forces. Reports varied in length from a few sentences
stating that a "flying saucer" had been sighted, to those containing thou-
sands of words, including description, speculation, and advice on how to
handle the "problem of the ' flying saucers"'. Some reports were of high
quality, conservative, and as complete as the observer could make. them;
a few originated from people confined to mental institutions. A critical
examination of the reports revealed, however, that a high percentage of
them was submitted by serious people, mystified by what they had seen and
motivated by patriotic responsibility.
Three principal sources of reports were noted in the preliminary
review of the data. The bulk of the data arrived at ATIC through regular
military channels, from June, 1947, until the middle of 1952.
A second type of data consisted of letters reporting sightings sent by
civilian observers directly to ATIC. Most of these direct communications
were dated subsequent to April 30, 1952, and are believed to be the result
of a suggestion by a popular magazine that future reports be directed to the
Air Technical Intelligence Center. As could be expected, a large number
of letters was received following this publicity.
A third type of data was that contained in questionnaire forms com-
pleted by the observer himself. A questionnaire form, developed during
the course of this study, was mailed by ATIC to a selected group of writers
of direct letters with the request that the form be completed and returned.
Approximately 1, 000 responses were received by ATIC.
In general, the data were subjective, consisting of qualified estimates
of physical characteristics rather than of precise measurements. Further-
more, most of the reports were not reduced to written form immediately.
The time between sighting and report varied from one day to several years.
Both of these factors introduced an element of doubt concerning the validity
of the original data, and increased its subjectivity. This was intensified by
the recognized inability of the average individual to estimate speeds, dis-
tances, and sizes of objects in the air with any degree of accuracy. In
spite of these limitations, methods of statistical analysis of such reports in
sufficiently large groups are valid. The danger lies in the possibility of
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forgetting the subjectivity of the data at the time that conclusions are
drawn from the analysis. It must be emphasized, again and again, that any
conclusions contained in this report are based NOT on facts, but on what
many observers thought and estimated the true facts to be.
Altogether, the data for this study consisted of approximately 4, 000
reports of sightings of unidentified aerial objects. The majority were re-
ceived through military channels or in the form of observer-completed
questionnaires; a few were accepted in the form of direct letters from un-
.questionably reliable sources. Sightings made between June, 1947, and
December, 1952, were considered for this study. Sightings alleged to have
occurred prior to 1947 were not considered, since they were not reported
to official sources until after public interest in "flying saucers" had been
stimulated by the popular press.
REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECHANIZED COMPUTATION FORM
As received by the Air Technical Intelligence Center, the sighting
reports were not in a form suitable for even a quasi-scientific study. A
preliminary review of the data indicated the need for standardized interro-
gation procedures and supplemental forms for the reduction of currently
held and subsequently acquired data to a form amenable to scientific
appraisal.
The plan for reduction of the data to usable form consisted of a pro-
gram of development comprising four major steps: (1) a systematic listing
of the factors necessary to evaluate the observer and his report, and to
identify the unknown object observed; (2) a standard scheme for the trans-
fer of data to a mechanized computation system; (3) an orderly means of
relating the original data to all subsequent forms; and (4) a consistent pro-
cedure for the identification of the phenomenon described by the original
data.
Questionnaire
The first reports received by ATIC varied widely in completeness
and quality. Air Force Letter 200-5(2) and Air Force Form 112(1) were
attempts to fix responsibility for and improve the quality of the reports of
sightings. To coordinate past efforts and to provide standardization for the
(1) A modified Air Force Form 112 lists pertinent questions to be answered in regard to an unidentified-object
sighting.
(2) Air Force Letter 200-5 places responsibility with the Air Force for the investigation, reporting, and
analysis of unidentified aerial objects. This letter is dated 29 April 1952.
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future, it was imperative to develop a questionnaire form listing the factors
necessary for evaluation of the observer and his report, and identification
of the unknown objects. In addition, it was decided that such a questionnaire
should be designed to serve as an interrogator's guide, and as a form for
the observer himself to complete when personal interrogation was not possi-
ble or practicable.
Ideally, a questionnaire for the purposes required should contain
questions pertaining to all technical details considered to be essential for
the statistical approach, and should serve to obtain a ,maximum of informa-
tion from the average individual who had made a sighting in the past or
would be likely to be reporting sightings in the future. Besides these dis-
crete facts, an integrated written description of a sighting would be re-
quired, thus enabling the reported facts of the sighting to be corroborated.
Also, a narrative description might allow subtle questions to be answered
concerning the observer's ability, such as indirect questions that would
reveal his reasoning ability, suggestibility, and general mental attitude.
As a whole, then, the information contained in a questionnaire should make
possible the classification and evaluation of the sighting, the rating of the
observer, the probability of accuracy of reported facts, and the identifica-
tion of what was reported by the observer as unidentified.
During the course of this project, three questionnaire forms were
developed, each intended to be an improved revision of the one preceding.
The improvements were suggested and confirmed by members of the panel
of consultants connected with this project.
The original form was evolved by the panel of consultants as their
first work on this project. It was intended to allow the start of the reduc-
tion of reports to discrete data, and was immediately subjected to exten-
sive review and revision by the panel. The revised (second) form was
subjected to a trial test before adoption. ATIC sent a copy to observers
reporting sightings, with the request that the form be completed and re-
turned. Of the first 300 questionnaires returned during July and August,
1952, 168 were analyzed by a consulting psychologist. On the basis of this
analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the final
form of the questionnaire - the U. S. Air Force Technical Information
Sheet - was evolved. Copies of the three forms of the questionnaire, in
the order of their development, are shown as Exhibits BI, B2, and B3 in
Appendix B.
In order to implement the .transcription of data from past sighting
reports, each succeeding form was put to use as soon as it was developed
and approved. Accordingly, experience was obtained with each form in
relation to past data, an important factor in the improvement of the quality
and completeness of the later reports included in this study.
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Coding System and Work Sheet
The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory
in the machine handling of data. Thus, the selection of the IBM punched-
card system for analysis of data forced the adoption of a master coding
plan. Since it was impracticable to transfer detailed data of an exact
nature from the questionnaire to the IBM card, an intermediate transfer
form, coordinated with the master code, was necessary.
The master coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the
preliminary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants
before use. It was recognized that this system of coding would be the
heart of the analysis, that is, the completeness of the facility for trans-
lation of data could make or break the study. Accordingly, every conceiv-
able factor that might influence the identification of unidentified aerial
objects was included, together with a wide range of variations within each
factor. The original coding system (with minor corrections) was used
throughout the translation of the original data with marked success. A copy
of this system, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit B4, Appendix B.
To facilitate the preparation of the punched-card abstract, an inter-
mediate form called the WORK SHEET (later, the CARD BIBLE) was
developed. Referenced to both the data from the questionnaire and the sys-
tem of report identification, the WORK SHEET permitted an orderly
transcription of data simultaneously by several people. In conjunction
with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used during the reduction of the
original data to code form necessary for transfer to punched cards. A
sample is included as Exhibit B5, Appendix B.
After the analysis was under way, it became apparent that the me-
chanics of machine processing could be improved by incorporating in the
IBM card system group classifications of certain factors requiring more
than one column for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of
certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect
to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical examination
of certain segments of the data indicated the need for the definition of a
new factor relating to the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted.
Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assumed that a com-
bination of stated factors would, by inference, define the maneuver pattern.
All these additions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES
and CARD BIBLE that are illustrated as Exhibits B6 and B7, Appendix B.
However, at the time that the maneuver factor was determined to be criti-
cal, it was physically impracticable to make the required definitions and
re-.evaluate the original data. . Therefore, no code for maneuverability has
been included in the CODES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.
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Identification of Working Papers
The actual reduction of data to IBM punched-card form presented a
problem of mass transfer of figures by several workers. Recognizing that
an orderly system of relating the original data to the questionnaire, the
WORK SHEET, and the IBM card was imperative, a scheme of SERIAL
NUMBERS was developed to answer this need.
The first data consisted of a series of letter-file folders identified by
the year and location of the sighting or sightings they contained. The num-
ber of reports of sightings in a single folder varied from 1 to over 20.
Under these conditions, there was a great possibility for incorrect tran-
scription of data, duplication of transcription, or misplacement of inter-
mediate forms. Further, it was considered desirable to relate all sightings
of the same object or objects to one another. The concept of a four-digit
serial number (major), followed by a two-digit subserial number (minor),
was adequate to fulfill these requirements.
To expedite handling of the data, temporary serial numbers .were
assigned until each report had been evaluated and the phenomenon had been
placed in a category of identification. The use of temporary serial num-
bers permitted the consolidation of duplicate reports from apparently
diverse sources, such as a teletype message and an Air Force Form 112.
However, this consolidation was made ONLY when it could be proved con-
clusively that the sources of the two documents were one and the same.
Factors of the observer's location, date and time of observation, descrip-
tion of the phenomenon, and finally, the name of the observer were con-
sidered. In this manner, the assignment of major serial and minor sub-
serial numbers in continuous series was made only to the reports accepted
for the statistical study. It is believed that the reports accepted represent
unique and unduplicated instances of sightings.
In the establishment of the serial-number system, it was necessary
to define certain terms,' so that a standard interpretation could be achieved.
The terms and corresponding definitions were:
OBSERVER - Any witness reporting to a proper authority that
he had seen unidentified aerial objects.
SIGHTING - The report or group of reports of the same
observed phenomenon that remained unidenti-
fied to the observer or observers, at least
until reported.
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SINGLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of a single
report from (1) one OBSERVER with no knowledge
of additional OBSERVERS of the same phenom-
enon, or (2) a group of witnesses of the same
phenomenon, each cognizant of the others. The
witness who made the report is called a SINGLE
OBSERVER.
MULTIPLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of
several reports from OBSERVERS of the same
phenomenon who were cognizant of each other.
The witnesses who made reports are called
MULTIPLE OBSERVERS.
ALL SIGHTINGS - (1) The group of reports consisting of one
report for each OBSERVER, including both
SINGLE and MULTIPLE OBSERVERS. (2) The
questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card
representing the report from each OBSERVER -
in other words, the representation of each report
accepted for the statistical study.
UNIT SIGHTINGS - (1) The group of reports consisting of one
report for each SIGHTING, including all the
reports of SINGLE OBSERVATIONS and the one
most representative report from each MULTIPLE
OBSERVATION. (2) The questionnaire, work
sheet, and IBM card representing the report for
each SIGHTING accepted for the statistical study.
A major serial number (four digits) was assigned to each sighting,
segregating the year of occurrence by selection of limits for each year, as
follows:
0001 to 0500 reserved for 1947
0501 to 1000 reserved for 1948
1001 to 1500 reserved for 1949
1501 to 2000 reserved for 1950
2001 to 2500 reserved for 1951
2501 to 4900 reserved for 1952
While this scheme would serve to identify any individual sighting, identifi-
cation of each report and its subsequent forms was necessary. The minor
subserial numbers (two digits) fulfilled this requirement. For all SINGLE
OBSERVATIONS, a major serial number followed by two (2) zeros, for
example, 2759. 00, was sufficient identification. For MULTIPLE OBSER-
VATIONS, the major serial number followed by a series of two-digit num-
bers ranging from 00 to 99 was used to identify the individual reports. In
general, the most complete report from the most reliable observer of that
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MULTIPLE OBSERVATION was identified with the . 00 subserial number.
As an example, a MULTIPLE OBSERVATION consisting of six sighting
reports would have the following serial numbers:
1132.00 representing the best report and observer
1132.01 representing an additional observer
1132.02 representing an additional observer
1132. 03 representing an additional observer
1132.04 representing an additional observer
1132.05 representing an additional observer
During the course of the transcription of the data to machine card
form, it became obvious that certain reports could have been independent
observations of the same phenomenon. So, if the presentation of an
analysis based on one report for each sighting was valid (the concept of
UNIT SIGHTINGS), a presentation of an analysis based on one report for
each phenomenon should be valid also. Further, the examination of data
relating to the actual number of phenomena was considered to be the proper
basis for assessing the probability of technological developments outside
the range of present-day scientific knowledge. Therefore, a designation of
OBJECT SIGHTINGS was established, with the following definition:
OBJECT SIGHTING - (1) The group of reports consisting of
one report for each phenomenon. (2) The
questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card
representing a report for each phenomenon
accepted for the statistical study.
In brief review, ALL SIGHTINGS refer to all reports, UNIT SIGHTINGS
refer to actual sightings, and OBJECT SIGHTINGS refer to the assumed
number of phenomena.
It must be recognized that the process of identifying OBJECT
SIGHTINGS was deductive, while that for UNIT SIGHTINGS was. definitive.
A conservative approach was adopted in the determination of OBJECT
SIGHTINGS, using the factors of date and time of observations, location
of observers, duration of observations, and range, bearing, track direc-
tion, and identification of the phenomena. Any error of selection of OBJECT
SIGHTINGS will tend to be in the direction of reducing the actual number of
phenomena observed (several instances of UNIT SIGHTINGS that might be
one OBJECT SIGHTING were noted, but the evidence was not conclusive
enough to justify consolidation of the reports).
Following the determination of OBJECT SIGHTINGS, a series of
serial numbers, called the INCIDENT SERIAL NUMBERS, was established
to facilitate any future study of a specific object sighting. Each reported
sighting that relates to an OBJECT SIGHTING received the same incident
serial number, a four-digit code paralleling the major serial number,
series.
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For machine manipulation, it was desirable to be able to select the
sample of cards (all reports, all sightings, or all phenomena) to be in-
cluded in a particular study. The concept of a SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION
NUMBER was evolved to fill this desire. Using one column of the IBM
card, and the correlated working papers, the code for this function was
developed. Multiple punching eliminated the need to use several columns
for discrete expression of the variations. Selection of the proper number
in this column thus permitted selection of the desired sample of cards.
Evaluation of Individual Reports
Evaluation of sighting reports was recognized as a crucial step in the
preparation of data for statistical treatment.; inconsistent evaluations would
have invalidated any conclusions to be derived from this study. A method
of evaluation was, therefore, determined simultaneously with the develop-
ment of the questionnaire, the coding system, and the work sheet. It is
emphasized that all phases of evaluation, even including the tedious prep-
aration of the original data for statistical treatment, were entrusted only
to selected, specially qualified scientists and engineers.
Evaluation consisted of a standardized procedure to be followed for:
(1) the deduction of discrete facts from data which depended on human im-
pressions rather than scientific measurements, (2) the rating of the ob-
server and his report as determined from available information, and (3) the
determination of the probable identification of the phenomenon observed.
Categories of identification, established upon the basis of previous experi-
ence, were as follows:
Balloon
Astronomical
Aircraft
Light phenomenon
Birds
Clouds, dust, etc.
Insufficient information
Psychological manifestations
Unknown
Other
The first step in evaluation, the deduction of discrete facts from
subjective data, required certain calculations based on the information
available in the sighting report. An example was the finding of the approxi-
mate angular velocity and acceleration of the object or objects sighted.
Care was taken during this phase of the work to insure against the deduc-
tion of discrete facts not warranted by the original data. Thus, even
though there was a complete lack of any valid evidence consisting of
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physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object, this
was not assumed to be prima facie evidence that "flying saucers" did not
exist.
In those cases in which an attempt to reduce the information to a
factual level failed completely, the report was eliminated from further con-
sideration, and thus not included in the statistical analysis. About 800
reports of sightings were eliminated or rejected in this manner. Most of
these reports were rejected because they were extremely nebulous; the
rest were rejected because they contained highly conflicting statements.
The second step in evaluation, the rating of the observer and his
report, logically followed the first step, the reduction of the data to usable
form. Ratings were assigned on the basis of the following factors of in-
formation, considered in relation to one another:
(1) The experience of the observer, deduced from his
occupation, age, and training;
(2) The consistency among the separate portions of the
description of the sighting;
(3) The general quality and completeness of the report;
(4) Consideration of the observer's fact-reporting ability
and attitude, as disclosed by his manner of describing
the sighting.
In cases in which insufficient information was available to make a judgment
of the observer or report, none was made, but the report was accepted for
the statistical study.
The third step in the process of evaluation, the attempted identifica-
tion of the object or objects sighted, was done twice, first by the individual
who made the transcription of the data (the preliminary identification), and
later (the final identification) by a conference of four persons, two repre-
sentatives from ATIC and two from the panel of consultants. Although
representatives of ATIC participated in making the final identifications, it
must be emphasized that any previous identification of a sighting made by
ATIC was not introduced or referred to in any way.
In the coding system, the choices provided for final identifications
were based on ATIC' s previous experience in analysis of the data. They
had found that the majority of sightings could be classified as misinterpre-
tations of common objects or natural phenomena. Accordingly, categories
for objects most frequently present in the air were provided. Balloons,
aircraft, astronomical bodies (such as meteors), birds, and clouds or dust
were recognized as major categories. The less frequent, but common
objects, such as kites, fireworks, flares, rockets, contrails, and
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meteorological phenomena like small tornadoes, were collected into a
category called OTHER. A separate category for the uncommon natural
phenomena associated with light reflections or refractions, such as mirages,
sun dogs, inversion-layer images, and distortions caused by airborne ic.e,
was established with the title of LIGHT PHENOMENON. Categories for
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION, PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS, and
UNKNOWN were provided for the sightings that could not be fitted into the
preceding identifications. An explanation of their use follows:
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION - This identification category
was assigned to a report when, upon final con-
sideration, there was some essential item of
information missing, or there was enough
doubt about what data were available to disallow
identification as a common object or some
natural phenomenon. It is emphasized that this
category of identification was not used as a
convenient way to dispose of what might be
called "poor unknowns", but as a category for
reports that, perhaps, could have been one of
several known objects or natural phenomena.
No reports identified as INSUFFICIENT INFORMA-
TION contain authenticated facts or impressions
concerning the sighting that would prevent its
being identified as a known object or phenomenon;
PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS - This identification
category was assigned to a report when,
although it was well established that the ob-
server had seen something, it was also
obvious that the description of the sighting
had been overdrawn. Religious fanaticism, a
desire for publicity, or an over-active imagi-
nation were the most common mental aber-
rations causing this type of report;
UNKNOWN - This designation in the identification code was
assigned to those reports of sightings wherein
the description of the object and its maneuvers
could not be fitted to the pattern of any known
object or phenomenon.
For the purposes of this study, two groups of identifications were
recognized, the KNOWNS (including all identification categories except the
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS.
All possible identifications provided in the code system, except
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION and UNKNOWN, could be assigned accord-
ing to two degrees of certainty, designated "Certain" and "Doubtful".
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A "Certain" identification indicated a minimum amount of doubt regarding
the validity of the evaluation. By "rule-of-thumb" reasoning, the proba-
bility of the identification being correct was better than 95 per cent. A
"Doubtful" identification indicated that the choice was less positive, but
that there was a better than even chance of being correct.
It is emphasized again that, as was true for other phases of evalua-
tion, preliminary and final identification was entrusted only to scientists
and engineers who, in addition to their broad scientific background, had
received instruction, where necessary, in specialized subjects. The panel
of consultants provided background information for this instruction. Many
of the cases representing unusual features or maneuvers were submitted to
and discussed with various members of the panel of consultants prior to the
final identification.
Consistency in the application of the knowledge necessary for making
identifications was maintained by frequent collaboration among the person-
nel involved, and systematic spot checks of the work. In addition to the
general fund of knowledge required to identify satisfactorily a reported
unidentified aerial object, an attempt was made to correlate specific data
such as flight plans of aircraft, records of balloon releases, weather con-
ditions, and an astronomical almanac with the reported sighting.
The procedure followed in making final identifications deserves ex-
planation because of the importance assumed by the identification as a basis
for statistical treatment. As was mentioned, a conference of four qualified
persons, two from ATIC and two from the panel of consultants, decided
upon the final identification for each sighting report. This work was done
at ATIC, periodically, as reports became ready.
During an identification conference, each sighting report was first
studied, from the original data, by one person. If that person arrived at a
decision, it was checked against the preliminary identification; if the two
identifications were the same, the report was appropriately marked and
considered finished. If the two identifications did not agree, the report
was considered later by everyone participating in the conference until a
group decision could be made.
If an evaluator was unable to categorize the report as one of the
common objects or as a natural phenomenon, and his opinion was that the
sighting should be recorded as UNKNOWN, a group decision was also re-
quired on that report before it was considered finished. A group decision
was necessary on all reports finally recorded as UNKNOWN, regardless of
what the preliminary identification had been. In cases where a group
decision was not made within a reasonable time, the report was put aside
and later submitted to certain members of the panel of consultants for their
opinions. If, after this, disagreement continued to exist, the report of the
sighting was identified as UNKNOWN.
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Upon completion of final identifications, all data were transferred to
IBM cards, preparatory to analysis.
Broadly stated, the problem at this point consisted of the judicious
application of scientific methods of categorizing and analyzing the sub-
jective data in reports of sightings of unidentified aerial objects. It was
recognized that an approach to this problem could best be made by a sys-
tematic sorting and tabulation program to give frequency and percentage
distributions of the important characteristics of sightings. A suggestion
that an attempt be made to anticipate all questions that might be asked in
the future about a sighting or a group of sightings, and to provide answers,
was rejected. The systematic approach also made it possible to develop
a detailed reference manual of the attributes of the sightings included in
this study.
Thus, at the beginning of the analysis, a detailed plan was developed
for sorting, counting, and tabulating the information from the punched-card
abstracts of reports of sightings. It was believed at the time, and later
substantiated, that the results of the program for sorting and tabulating
would serve as a guide for the more sophisticated treatment involving
statistical methods.
Also, it was anticipated that any patterns or trends that might be
found could be subjected to concentrated study in the hope of discovering
significant information relating to the characteristics of "flying saucers".
Further, it was believed that these trends could serve as certain of the
criteria of validity for any concepts (models) developed in the attempt to
discover a class of "flying saucers".
The three parts of this study (1) the sorting and tabulation program,
(2) the advanced study of the results of that program, and (3) the investiga-
tion of the possibility of conceiving a model of a "flying saucer" from
descriptions reported, are discussed in sections entitled "Frequency and
Percentage Distributions by Characteristics", "Advanced Study of the Data",
and "The ' Flying Saucer' Model".
Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics
The original conception of this study assumed the availability of
sufficient data to describe adequately the physical appearance, maneuver
characteristics, range, direction, and probable path of the object or
objects observed. However, familiarity with the data, acquired during the
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translation and transcription from-reports to punched cards, indicated that
there would be relatively few specific variables or factors that would yield
meaningful correlation studies. Either the original data were too subjec-
tive, or the incompleteness of the original reports--would seriously reduce
the sample of a specific variable.
Preliminary tabulations of various sortings substantiated the im-
possibility of deriving statistical results from certain variables, such as
movement of the observer during the sighting, sound, shape parameter,
size, angular velocity and acceleration, appearance and disappearance
bearing, initial and final elevation, altitude, and orientation of the object.
The statistically usable variables presented in this study include the date,
time, location, duration, reliability, and method of observation of the
sighting, and the physical attributes of number, color, speed, shape, light
brightness, and identification of the objects sighted.
The presentation of frequency and percentage distributions of any of
the variables must be interpreted in the light of the sample of incidents
represented. For example, the analysis of the reported colors of the
objects sighted, based on ALL SIGHTINGS, could lead to misrepresenta-
tion of the distribution of the reported color of the objects, because of the
multiplicity of reports on some of the phenomena. On the other hand, the
percentage distribution of the light brightness reported by each observer
is more likely to be correct than a distribution based on one report for
each phenomenon. To assure that the most nearly correct presentation
was made, and to avoid the possibility of failure to uncover any pattern or
trend inherent in the data, the variables were studied on five different
bases or samples. These samples, and their numerical relation to each
other, were as follows:
ALL SIGHTINGS (all reports) - 3, 201 cards
UNIT SIGHTINGS, all observers - 2, 554 cards
UNIT SIGHTINGS, single observer - 2, 232 cards
UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers - 322 cards
OBJECT SIGHTINGS - 2, 199 cards
The preliminary tabulations indicated that the samples based on UNIT
SIGHTINGS, single observer, and UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers,
would not add materially to this study. Accordingly, although the fre-
quency distributions were recorded and are available for study, they are
not presented in this report.
The bases of ALL SIGHTINGS, UNIT SIGHTINGS (referring to all
observers), and OBJECT SIGHTINGS are presented in Appendix A as
Tables Al through A240. A critical study of these tabulations reveals that
there is no apparent change in the distribution of any variable from one
basis to another, and that no marked patterns or trends exist in any sample.
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Graphical Presentation
Graphical representation of the important information contained in
the tables is presented in Figures 1 through 38. These figures present the
distributions of the important variables only by the total number of cases
in each identification category, since no significant differences were found
between the distributions of "Certain" and "Doubtful" identifications of
objects with respect to the variables. A chronological study of these
figures will afford a broad picture of the tabulated information, without the
necessity of a detailed study of the tables.
A critical examination of the figures will show that no trends, patterns,
or correlations are to be found, with the exception of Figures 18 through 30.
The apparent similarity of the distributions shown by these mirror graphs,
Figures 18 through 23, was tested by statistical methods which showed that
there was a low probability- that the distributions of the KNOWNS, and
UNKNOWNS by these characteristics were the same. These tests and their
interpretation are discussed in the following section. For purposes of this
study, the strategic areas, shown in Figures 32 through 38, and Tables
A223 through A240, Appendix A, were designated on the basis of concen-
tration of reports of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in an area. No other interpre-
tation of the tables or remaining charts was deemed necessary.
Advanced Study of the Data
It was recognized that the lack of any patterns or trends, as shown by
the tabulations and graphs, provided an insecure basis for drawing definite
conclusions. Accordingly, shortly before the sorting and tabulation pro-
gram was concluded, a program of study of the data was developed to
utilize statistical and other mathematical methods, which could lead to a
more concrete interpretation of the problem.
Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer
The first thing that was done was to calculate the angle of elevation of
the sun above the horizon and its bearing from true north as seen by the
observer at the time of each sighting. With this information, it could then
be determined whether there was a possibility that the reported object
could have been illuminated by light from the sun. In addition, it could be
determined whether an object could be a mock sun (sun dog) or whether
there was a possibility of specular reflection from an aircraft at the posi-
tion of the object, which would give the appearance of a "flying disc".
A program of computation was set up and carried out to obtain the
angle of elevation and the bearing of the sun for each sighting. All informa-
tion needed for this calculation was available on the deck of IBM cards.
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Object sightings
2199 =100%
All sightings
3201 = 100%
Unit sightings
2554=100%
FIGURE I FREQUENCY OF SIGHTINGS BY YEAR FOR OBJECT,
UNIT, AND ALL SIGHTINGS
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Object sightings
2199=100%
All sightings
3201=100%
Unit sightings
2554= 100%
FIGURE 2 DISTRIBUTION OF EVALUATIONS OF OBJECT,
UNIT, AND ALL SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS
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FIGURE 3 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALU-
ATION FOR ALL YEARS WITH COMPARISONS OF
EACH YEAR FOR EACH EVALUATION GROUP
19
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
01
20
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
-- - ---------------
'O;ui
;nsul
O O 0
to It M
I D31W000J;Sb- /
O O O 0 0 0 0 0 0
O C1 m ti W to it to N
SBU14461S 43afgo S44UOYY 4303 ;O 083 Jad
}
m
0
W
0
Z
0
w
Ir
M
CD
21
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
30 20 10 0 10 20 30
Astronomical
All years -
1947 E
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
All years [
1947
1948
1949
1950
195 I
1952
All years
1947
1948
1 95 0
195 I
1952
Aircraft
Balloons
Insuf. info.
ti
All years
1947
1948
1949
1950
195 1
1952
All years
1947
1948
1949
1950
195 I
1952
Other
All years
1947
1948
1949
1950
195 I
1952
30 20 10 0 10 20 30
Certain Per Cent Doubtful
FIGURE 6 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY CERTAIN AND
DOUBTFUL EVALUATIONS FOR ALL YEARS AND EACH YEAR
A-74 e4
22
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
O O 0' '68
O O 0 0 On
0 Q M N
, in
O
m
P- 3
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
Unknown
72=16.6%
Insuf.
info.
Astro-
nomical
93=21.4%
Insuf.
info.
III=
V4L 0
alloon
56=12.905
Astro-
nomical
154=19.4%
794--
100%
)Aircraft
198=24.9?
/Balloon \
127=16.8%
/Aircraft
166 =
22.0%
FIGURE 8 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING
RELIABILITY GROUPS WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTIONS
FOR EACH GROUP
A-7486
Other
5=9.9?
24
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
O
m
m
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to
OD
/
le
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,
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25
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
DI-
oD
m
0 Fr m I
%- m
O w
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w
m
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a- I
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m
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in
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0
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
to M N N
264U93 Jad
lL
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
White
Metallic
stated
Orange
Red
Other
23.5%
17.7 %
12.3 %
10.0%
8.1%
28.4 %
FIGURE I I DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED COLORS
OF OBJECT(S) WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH
COLOR GROUP
27
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
z
0
cD
C_
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I I or more objects
a,
4-
v
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N
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le
2199=
100%
I object
1636= 74.4%
100-
0.
0 8O-
CD
C
1260-
.o.-40-
40-
Balloon
Aircraft
Astronomical
Oa
FIGURE 12 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS SEEN PER SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION DISTRI-
BUTION FOR EACH GROUP
28
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
3-10 objects
255= 11.6
0
w
0
z
Unknown
66=3.0%
Others
Insuf. info.
-400.
n
0
-20 W
-0
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
11
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
r
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OLD
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
0
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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m Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/204'CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
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Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
U
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n
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U
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no
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n
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FIGURE 30 CHARACTERISTICS PROFILES OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY
TOTAL SAMPLE, KNOWN EVALUATIONS, AND INDIVIDUAL KNOWN
EVALUATIONS, WITH UNKNOWN EVALUATIONS SUPERIMPOSED
8-7508
Approved For Release 2005/07/26t6CIA-RDP81 R00560R000100060001-5
 I
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
47
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
w LL.
LL. O
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : 6A-RDP81 R00560R0001 00060001-5
ut,
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
49
Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
W
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1 , 0 40
L EARS
/
/
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Evalua
U-Balloon
Number
tful Total
3
Per Cent
Certain Doubttul Total
5
-W
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
o ~/
Per Cent
Chain Doubtfl Total
. 2
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
141
I
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
. Z S /5
1-7
Number
Certain Doubtlu Total
/Z
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
1-Astrooomi
L
L
SD
0.
25o
13l
ii
,.f
2
9
55
/ . 3
17 L
35
PO
1141
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5
//
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L
2
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9
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0
1
23
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0.0
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7
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f/97
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8
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1;1
Total
11/7
SS
/.
if/
100
/0
9
5-11
53
3S3
/
L
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50 L
00
9so
/157
/157
Evaluation
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cart
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
ertain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Carl
Certain DurMlul Total
5-Balloon
22
5
Z.
9
2
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2. Z
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52
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09
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5
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.
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O
oo
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$
12, a
9
5
/L
Total
/ O
?
20
L
L
1
1,991
ZY 1
117
0-4-
2 .3
For Release 2005/07/18?CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
Approved
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
A L
EA,PS
13P
/5;r
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cat
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
ertaiu
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
ertain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
7oW
Certain
Doubtful
Total
coma.
Boubtbrl
TTot+l
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2
?
1-4-41
7
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7
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3
5
141
21
35
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14
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5
6
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2
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S
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9
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6
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o
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22
a
2
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4/41
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2 .
2
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5a
350
00.
717
/
/ o.
/
If-
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Numbs
Pa Cat
Number
Per Cat
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtfu
Total
Certain
Doubtful Toti
0-Balloon
5
/
5
44
1-Astmmmieal
/Yf
f jI
23/
2a
-/ /
-
2-Aircraft
2
/>?O
S. 3
.3
16-
6
2/
S -O
?
/
?G
/ .
117
rtightremmm.
O
/
/
2
f
/.G
25
/
4-Birds
$
3
. 5
5-Clo W% trait etc
jq
O
12A
/)d
N.,g
&I
a
0
j9,9
?
11
Id
4Insutfic Into.
-4411
O
/ ?2
4z;,
141;2
,/
/9
/
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0 0
(
0
/,/,f
T-Psyamrollical
2
Z
/
/
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O
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O
O
3
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9
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6
5
5. ?
a
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a
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s/
/
5
.9
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3
Taal
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20
O.
21,
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01 S
00.
a7S
2G
5,011
2,1 e,
2f
Approved For Release 2005/07/201:CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
I
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
F s v
r c
q ~q
Evaluation
aealloon
Number
Certain Doublhl Total
3 3 6
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful
2.2 2.2
Total
1 / 1 .
erlain
9
Number
Doubld Total
0 9
Per Cent
Certain DmbtNl Total
9.7 0. 0 Y.7
Number
in Dobta' Total
/6 1' 20
Per Cot
Certain Doubtful Total
9.G 2? /1.
Number
Certain Doubfful Total
7 3 / 0
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
3 S /. .f 0
1?Ashonminl
2-Atrr;raft
3-Light Phnom.
2J
0
0
'
3
0
0
75
9
0
0
2/.3
y.Y
0.0
0.0
33.
2.
Q.
SS./
(a ?L
0.0
0.0
/7
9
0
5
0
33
/ y
0
0
/$.
.0
0.0
17.
S
0.0
35.
IS.
0.0
0.0
At
23
S
90
0
0
Nl
36
0
S
/1.7
13.9
0, 0
3 0
r2.
V,
0.0
0.
2Y7
/B.
0.0
3.0
S1
72
`/
9
8
Q
l
61
if
I
S
/y.a
. S
>.
w.0
0, 0
o?S
30.
-
/.a
0. J
7?S
5?Clouds, Dust, etc
0
0
0
.0
0
0.
0
0
/
/
0.0
0.6
0.4
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
4imwtfic Info.
8
0
8
f?
0.
$.
13
J
0.0
/a/0
71
0
22
33
0.0
13,3
2c
0
2
/30
.Q
/J.
T-PspeMlo/id
0
2
/.
0.0
16
0
0
.0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
?
l.0
0.0
/,0
2
l
0
1L
9.
/9.
/G
0
/6
/7.2
00
[7.2
29
0
29
/7.S
0.0
t7,
S7
0
S7
7 .S
o
ff1
q
/0
&
0.7
7.3
0
B
.6
0.0
.6
/
/7
/B
o.G
[o.]
70.
?
0
2
/.0
0.0
/.o
Ll
S3
/36
?!.0
1
72
2/
93
77.
22i
/17
Y9
[06
70.
?4
/00
/7f
2/
Too
8R45
;;T
/100
?
4v4o
Evaluation
0-Ballow
Certain
?/f
Number
Doubtful Total
S 2
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful
/7,y 1.C
Total
/f0
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
3L L Y,?
Per Cot
Certain Dmubtbi Total
lS?8 1. /B.
Number
ertain DTotal
/00
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
/0.8 S. 9 /E
Number
Certain Doubttu Total
?9 4H B3
Per Cot
Certain Dnbtbil Total
S s
t-Rstranomial
78
/0
38
14.
S 1
/9.L
2
7
S1
12.7
/0./
T>.
G
/7.S
S.
/P. 9
S
0
123
/3.Y
1,3c
2-AAircraft
25
/S
'/'0
/2.9
7
TO?'
_LO
/ 3
4J
13.2
s.
11-9
1J3
/9.
0.
?
SS
/ 07
L01.
. G
a
z0?
3-U it
Pbenum.
3
3
/ 5
3.0
3
Y
3
/? 7
Y
y
l B
7
/
_
l 3
? G
4Birds
0
.7
0
1
8
0.0
y, /
0.0
/-,q
4. /
0
0
o-
0
0.0
0.0
0
r,
0.0
3
7
0 4,
0 3
0. 7
? 0
00
0 0
0 2
~.
0.
O
1.7
//.3
0.0
//? 3
?
2S
0
8
0
8 8
0. 0
. S
`1 S
0
. L
0. 0
9- L
0
0
0, d
, l
0
G
0.0
2.4
9
9
/ Q
1.0
/. 0
?. 0
1
/ 9
.2. /
E
0
U
36
/8.6
0 0
/0?
M
H 7
0
97
0
0- 0
?0.
/9S
0
/ L5
2/.0
00
1
0
72.B
00
TT.B
5`
/3
y,
z.
G?
8
/
.5
3.
0
Y/
H.3
7
8
2.1
/. 3
39
3q
/9//
79.
2D./
/00
/B?
Y6
>B
7f8
?0.7
/~A,
703
Tl6
9>9
75.7
29.9
/pD
136
/
!r2/
69.
3S.S
/QQ.
E TE E
1-0 r--
P
Moy-n-f /r
Evaluation
Ballon
Cerwn
Number
Doubtful Total
4f
2
0
Per Cot
Certain Doubtful
.9 G?
2
Total
9.6
Number
Certain Doubtful Tow
2/ 37
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
B3 /0
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
23
Per Cot
Certain Doubthrl Total
3.0 /l.0
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
9 /6
7
P. Cot
Chain Doubtful Total
f// Y1 9G
l-Asw
romial
3 /
H1
/Y? 8
f-?
70
.
y o
7/
G
20.8
/O .f
7i.
?8
79
S 7
171
1 /7.7
39,e
32
31
3
/f.
'J.
' c
2-Air Aircraft
/H
37
fl
/7.
7Y.
/ 7
28
.57
27
4.7
9.9
/1..S
2G
J/
8.3
/S.
3-Li
[
3
0.5
.0
[
Y
S
L S
?.
2?G
3
/
l.8
a. L
z Y
l
o
/
o.
0. a
o.G
'&
/
2
3
03
/.o
. c
S-
2
7
2.6
/.0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
v.0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
solama: Dust eb,
1
/
0
0.5
8
D. 0
Y.
0
0. 0
6lnsutffcMo,
20
0
20
2
G.2
8
8
9.
7-PsttMbpd
0. 5
0. 0
O.S
`
0.
.
W
6
~
/P.7
/J-
/. c
0.0
0.5
/8.7
2. /
t/
0
0
3?
/P
0.
/.
YD
17
Taal
1
G5/
3 .9
/00,
/2
72
/LY
SL./
y3.9
/ll.
//G
S1
/08
69.0
3/.0
/00.
Approved For Release 2005/07/2tO:9CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
-1, qt
c,rr
4P.t,z
Number
Pe C.
Number
Per Coat
Number
Per Coat
Number
Per Coat
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Chain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
main
DnuDNul
Total
Certain
Dobtul
Total
Caton
DnWtfu
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
0-Balloon
1-Astrorosid
2-Aircraft
3?Ught Phemm.
4-Birds
5-Clouds, Dud, do
&taefic Info.
2?Psychobgia
Bother
Total
/r'IR
6
vcv
Number
Per Cart
Number
Per Cot
Number
PC Cot
Number
Per Cot
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Main
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtlu
Total
Certain
Dmrbtful
Total
D?ealloaa
0
/
O.0
7
C
0
6~
R
O
O
0
6.0
10
1-Asbammial
l
77
S
3
A
21
-U
,6ki
6
7
2-Airadt
Z
lur0
0
-
0
-
0
I
3-Light Phermm.
0
O
_jgo
- I
o
/
/Y
0
/
0
A a
100
4-Birds
O
00
O.O
O
0
O
5-Claud; Dust, nc
O
0
1 0
0
'01
6F.D
. 0
0
. 0
0
00
&lnolfic Info.
0
. l
O
91
r
.v.
P .,o
/<
O.O
zzs
2-Psydnlogia
0
I
Z 71
00
27
o
-Z
0
2.4
16
0 1
D
&Unlmo n
41
O
O
/2
1
-
0
-
1/3.
9 then
A
7
16
o
/ 6
jy~t
0.
0
D
0
0.0
Ago 1
.01
-
-
-
Total
/,2?
13
9.73
7.
/00,
-#L
7
SS
97
12 1
00
IF
16
137
#
O 7-, Pe
6M
6C --/W
Number
per Cot
Number
Pe Coat
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Coal
Evaluator
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtfd
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtta
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
&Baloon
0
0
10.0
P-I
0.0
O
0
0
0.0
00
0.0
0
1 01
0
00
00
.0
D
0
O
0,0
O.O
ou
I?ASbommial
12
/
IA(Z
00
A7
&
.2
Ik
M
0
3
33,
46,6
S'
0
S-
d
0
440
2-Aircraft
-
O
-,
0
a
0
D
0
0,0
o
0.0
00
0
3-Light Phone
3-3
3
0
0
O
40
00
OD
4-Birds
t7
O
0
0
0
0
O
0
0
O
R0
.D
5-Clouds, Dost, do
0
0
O
O
0
.0
.O
O
D.0
0
L19
/I I
0
.0
&boarmc fudo.
/
O
O
0
OD
0
0
0 0
o
O
QD
7-Psychological
0
r
6
/
S.31
0
O
0
10
0
0
0
O
o/
&Unkrto
/
/0
0
0-0
10
0
0
O.0
LIP
9-Other
0
0
o
00
0.0
0
O
M
0
00
O0
A
Tdai
0
6
d0,
A9
LT
Z-
Q9
/ ,
l,b
Z
-37
&
3d3
/ao.
S
D
S
/000
0
/00.
Approved For Release 2005/07/2Q i CDIA-RDP81 R00560R000100060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
OF
T U
FB/PU~
R
M
-/r/z,-
Evaluation
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Tot
Nastier
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
ertain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Chain
Number
Doubtful
Total
P
Certain
er Cart
Doubtful
Total
0-Balloon
e;
0
O
D
0,I
0
0
0,0
,o
D
0
00
0,0
/./
0,0
/l./
1-Asttonomial
A0
3
/3
a0
0
,z
2.9
0.0
B
0.0
AW_S-
~il~
2-Aircraft
D
0
00
D
0
e
6,
0.0
0,0
O
0
0
0
00
0
O
6
3-Ligt Pbeam.
O
D
D,D
,0
?D
.D
a
0
D
00
0,0
0.0
q
0
D
,0
0
4-Birds
0
O
0,0
0.'0
0
0
J
s). 0
O O
D
.0
0.0
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
0
0
0
D
O
O
O,
0.0
D
D
6.
A 0
170
O,0
O
0
0/9
6 Insufic Info.
/,Z
/~,
O
0
D
D
e.,9
1 0.
0
2
222
Do
.a. -2
/
9
/
&0
7-Psychological
0
O
0.D
D
O
0
e0.1
2.p-
19
O.0
D
0
D
0.0
&tBazrown
0
O
D
o
O
0
O.0
/
O
/../
O 1
///
0
/
O
/
0,0
K2.
1 A 2.1
0
0
0
0.
00
D
O
0.0
D
D
TOW
7f0
0
D
.2-
'J
_Z1,
/iAY
E
UL
/U U J'7
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
erlain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Chain
Doubtfu
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
-Balloon
0
0
0
0
oD
0,0
3
O
3
SAJ
0,0
11,
0
z
1-Asuanmial
2
/
!
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
3
Z3
2L
2
/f
119.2
/
2-Aircraft
0
0
0
00
s
I
z
/
2
3-Light Phnom.
0
40
.3
0
3
3
00
SD
6,411
O
/
2
42
0
0
0
4-Birds
00
9/
4
0
0
"0
0 . 0
,0
, D
0 0
5-Clouds, Oust, air
O
O
to
,V
0
0
,D
.0
0
O
D
0, 0
.0
0,0
O
A. 0
D
6lnsutfic into.
3
0,0
;Z7.3
O
0
D
D
O
0
0
0. t)
0.
0
/
0
7-Psydmlo?ial
0
RO
40
0.0
0
0
0
0, 0
0.0
O
O
0
0,0
0
O
-AIL
o.
8-Unknown
0,0
1/
0
O
0
0
00
2S
0
G 0
0
5-other
0
0
O
0
0,0
0.0
OP
I
i
.26
U
4?,P
/8
-
Total
3
3
500
E0,0
/00.
~
3
33
/00
36.
636
OO
EOTC,~I
Oc'.
44 f/c M E'
CE/`1 d'!
Number
Pa Cent
Number
Pa Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Chain
Doubtlu
ToW
Certain
Owbtlul
Total
O-Balloon
3
00
7,S
37,
/
/67
3,9
~,
l
6
5-,0
,~6 0
00
0
7, l
D 0
71
1-Ashmromical
0
/
,7. s-
.2 j
a
3a
,0
/ 3
350
2
71
.2
2-Aircraft
a
,t
0
-
3
0,9
3 3
0
A'
1D o
O
9,0
3
3-Light Pbmom
O
0
jq, 0
0 0
/
0
4,0
0
O
0
Z?
O
O
010
1-Birds
DD
33
3
0
0,0
0 0
0
0
00
0.0
? '_
5-Clouds, Dust, do
0
0
, 0
0
, 0
0.0
0,0
0,01
-0,0
0, P.
6,0
12
'52
O
.D
0
6?Insutfic Into.
O
1,40
AD
O
20-0
0.0
7-901
/
0
/
K"
00
O
.7
0
3 1
/0,7
/O 2'
7-Psyclmlogcai
0
0,0
/
O
20
O, 01
0
0
.0
0
01 0
0
0
D
0
0 0
&unlmorur
Q
6
00
OD
o0
00
0
D
0,D
0
2 /
..0
?,7I
9.OMer
O
4
0
U
E
DU
0
19
0
0
#0
0
Tg-
-
0
7,
CG
-
-
-
-t
Total
6
S
OS"O
75 0
/00
/
/
3 0
S.
3
/00
/
1.0
7D.0
A,o
/era,
/ S
/
6 .3
3S
/00
Approved For Release 2005/07/2U i VA-RDP81 R00560R000100060001-5
 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
/
9 iJ4,q.
A ?CA/
/1pot/L
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Chain
Doubtful
Total
ertan
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
TOW
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
0Balloon
/
00
1,7
/.
0.0
x?
tj
0
0,9
1 0.
0
0
/
Z. I
40
2,1
1-Astronomical
3 01
11
l0
/6.
O
13.
1,1
2-Aircraft
/
17
IS
l
/
00
-C&
/S-
o,
0
3
O,o
3-Light Phenom.
60
0
0
0
O
19,0
0
UD
0-0
'p, 0
4-Birds
0
9,d
9.0
0,0
0
0
0
D
go
AM
o
4
1.'7
o
o
19
a
1019
12 4 1
.0
5-Clouds, Dust, etc.
Q
0
0,o
0
0
D
,0
0.0
0.01
0
U
0
d
0.0
00
0.01
6-Insuftic Into.
0
O
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l
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6
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0
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10,6
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0
0
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9,9
0
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0
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0
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0
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o
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0
0.
0
L
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0
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0
D D
0
-
i
Total
32
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00
$
/00
62
63,
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19
2?1
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Tv NE
Tv
s r
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Talal
Certain
Doubtfu
ToW
Certain
Doubtful
Total
0-Balloon
/
g,
Z
1
O
/49,0
0
4,0
0
1
0
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0
0
0
0
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0,0
1-Astrommial
A
/
244Q
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Q
7
3j' P
3S
f-
3
/
3
2-Aircraft
$
0
0
S-
DO
2s,-o
o
/D
/
2
21,
3-Light Phenom.
0
p
0,0
0,0
0
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0
0,0
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00
0
0,0
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10
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4-Birds
0
0
0,
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pt)
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0
0
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20
5-Clouds, Dust, etc.
0
0
0
0
0
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P. /7
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0
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J9, j
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0
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40
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a
0
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0
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0. 0
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a
0
0
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l
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0, 0
019
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Total
36
9
0
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140,
1 %
6
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76.0
2
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65,0
00
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N /~./e
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Number
Per Cent
Number
Pd Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
ToW
Certain
Doubtful
Total
ertain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtfu
ToW
Certain
Doubtful
Total
0Balloon
/
0
33 3
0.0
azi
0
0
0
0 0
170
0.O
0
3
3
0,0
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0
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G.0
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0
0
0,9
00
00
2
4
6
15-a
Ta If
2
/
6
?
/ P
2,
5
74
IK(
7
2-Aircraft
19
O
0
S
D
6
0,0
2.2
3-Light Phenom.
0
0
10
0
0
0.0
0
0
O
0,0
D
0
0,01
/-Birds
0
4
-
-
0
p
0
0
0.0
0
0
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0
0 0
0
0,9
0
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67
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0.0
0
0
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0
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2
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6497
2
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0.
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0
0
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0
0.0
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D
0
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B-Unkmver
O
0
0.0
0,0
3
0
0
3
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122 2
9-Other
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-
4"2
12
0
0
0
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0
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Total
0
3
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/
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(,L
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3
3'5-,31
(r/J
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
c
Aa/r c
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Pr Cent
Evaluation
Chan
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
ToW
ertain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Dabful
Total
in
Doubtful
Totaa
aeatloon
0
0
06
o.b
0
3
ob
Q
-
3
6
/4
y~
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0
/
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I-Amtamial
3
4"
3
H
.I
12-1
1
4
a
S
1.
0.0
11.1
/3
13.9'
2-Aimraft
o
2
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0
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I% .1
16
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3
7
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0
0
6.0
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0
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e
6.6
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0
0
0
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0.6
0.0
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6.0
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0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
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0
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00
b
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p
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0
11
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333
3
13
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0.0
171
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00
17
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0
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Total
r
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16.3
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3
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0
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JUNE
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Number
Per Cent
Number
per Cent
Number
per Cent
Number
Per Cot
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtfu
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
D-Balleen
O
3
D
d
/.
3
D
y/
d
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/
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2
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2
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D. D
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0
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o
e
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7
0
7
224
/
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2-Aircraft
o
o
d
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d
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d
/
7
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0
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o
0
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0
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0
0
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Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Col
Chain Doubtful Total
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Pr Cent-
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cot
Chain
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D-Balloon
0
0
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6,0
e
/
0
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d.b
O.D
6
2
2
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1
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0
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
TAB/_E A9 Z"411.417'4' DF ALL S/6NT//YG5 %Y /IOiYT/' OF k2g
#a
E .f
ARG
.P
Number
T. Celt
Neaber
Per Cent
Number
Pe Cent
Number
Pe Cert
Eralumnon
Certin
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Main
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
rtin
Doubtful
Total
Chain
Doubtful
Total
Chin
Doubtful
Total
Chain
Doubtful
Total
'"lloon
.z
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9
7
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111
0
1
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00
0
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0
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5
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133
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6
0
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04
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10
3
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3
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0
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00
0
0
0.0
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0
0
6
0.0
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6
0
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4-Buds
40
0.0
6.0
0.0
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0
O.D
0
O-d
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0
0.0
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6
0
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0.0
0
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0
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0.0
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5
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166-.1
J.v
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A
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Number
Pe Cent
IM~er
Per Cat
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Per Cent
Eraloation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Chain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Tod
Certain
Dabtbd
Tod
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doub1Y
Total
Cabin
Dmbth4
Toti
Chain
Dmblt,
Total!
0-Balloon
2
o
00
o
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1 D.6
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D
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2
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o
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0
0
0
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6.4
at
6.0
2.
3
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0
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6.6
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D
0
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0
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0.6
0.0
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01
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100
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Number
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Number
Pe Cal
Name
per Cat
Number
Per Cent
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
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Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Curtin
Doubtful
Tod
Main
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Dorbtd
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Tad
Certain
Doubtful
Total
O-Balloon
'56
6.0
-54
2
1 a
2
7/
0.0
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0
9
59
0
9.l
0.0
9?l
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4
1/4-7
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1 13
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0
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1
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9.1
11.3
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0
54
00
54
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2
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2
0
2
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14
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4
6
4
4.4
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0
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0
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0
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 Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5
J ewuA2
FEe u,e e
E
APle
Evaluation
aBaltonn
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
10
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
6.41 4.7
Number
erbin Doubtful Total
)1 1
Per cent
Certain Doubtful Tot
'0.6 59
.b
Number
ertain Doubtful Total
3 1 4
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
11.1 .1 0
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
3 3 6
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
2.7 4
lAstronomical
4
9 1
10
21 .7
63.4
4
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7.5
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0.0
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6
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6
0
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-o
140
4-Birds
0
0.
4
O
0
1
.7
D
3
1
Q
10
-31
S-Clouds, Dust, etc
Q
D
A
6.111
6
I
1
0
3?
3.7
0
0
.0
A. 6
.0
6lnsunic Into.
all
00
0.0
.L
6
Od
37
D
o
0.0
q.q
7-Psydcbginl
.2
0
)3.3
04
/
0
6.6
?D
0.0
d
0
6.01
OA
?0
0
I
.0
d
.0
d~
2
3
41-61
13-3
1 5
il
6
,271
41
0
4
1$
OD
8
0
9
0.0
4-01 err
13.
0.
1 .3
2
2
/?/
d
1.)
101
?7
333
3 .0
2
0
2
1?
.0
A
Taal
4
/?S
33
26?
lea.
l5
.0)
i
8
833
M.
100?
14
13
a7
51?Q
8?z
loo.
9I
1z
143
8P.
I .6
oil.
M,4
J a
E
/u~
6us7-
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Evaluation
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doibtful
Total
Certain
Dbubtu
ToW
Certain
Doubtful
ToW
aBalloon
H
19
I
3?S
11
6
q$
3.9
/
4 Y
64
142
I3
69
32
36
41
771
9,1
/0.3
19.
t-Astronomical
?1?
II
I 1q.2
1.7
l at
/
4
.d
12
3.3
9
31-
33
1.
.3
I .6
4
2-6
41
B
4
1.
2-Aircraft
I
I L
5.0
0. 6
5?
2
1
6.8
?d
/ ,13
'99
-111
I?
I I.3
d
45
43
99
4
it f
'u
3-LightPbemm.
3
6
3
2.7
0.0
z?1
1
0
1
06
0.6
12,
16
15
d
6
11
.3
1.5
z$
4Birds
0
0
0
00
0
DD
60
4
5
.I
_6
0
o
0
6.0
4
0.0
5-Clouds, Dust do
7. I
.0
. 1
. o
o
0
0
.D
OD
4
5
.5
? I
?d
0
1
1
00
?3
3
6lnsutfic Info.
6
0
3
.0
5:3
20
0
26
111
.D
70
6
0
9.0
0.0
90
35
3
1
0.0
.g
7-Psydmlotical
01
6
0
00
0.
"
ft
0
.23
Oh
23
1
6
15
1.2
2.0
1
9
0
.3
a3
18 UnInmun
0
17.7
0.0
1?
-
3
0
33
.9
00
12.9
l63
163
]0
.0
20?$
13
93
0.0
.4
9-0tber
9
I
0
O
0.
8.
6
T
3.
0.6
O
1
I
2.2
_L1
1
9
5
~.
1.3
34
Total
9
11.3
83.
16.8
100.
140
36
176
79.6
20.4
/OD.
593
tg9
783
75.4
24.1
IQl.
274
123
39
6q.7
31.3
too.
Sc PTE
--g
NO E aPE C
E@ E /S ER
Evaluation
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Chain Doubtful ToW
Number
Certain Doubt ul Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Chan DuuLNu ToW
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful ToW
0.Balloon
5
2-5
4
91
2
2a
8.9
131
z16
2
11
a.4
14.4
3
3
D.4
`t.
.6
1?Astmromical
22
3
/
1
3
0
23
.l
J50
S
8
13
14
1?q
-9.4
9
20
4j
.6
30.
7-Aircraft
/0
4
Z
.Z
.4
3
13
$
54
I
9
3
3
4
.D
I
3
/4
/.
21
3-Liam Pbenom.
2
3
/.2
I
0
4
04
4 .
3
1
3
.0
1.
45
1
0
1
1..
O. D
1.5
4-Binds
Z
3
/,2
I.
.S
?3
? I
5
0
6
0
0.0
A.
00
D
D
O
O.D
6
0.0
5-Clouds, Dust, do
1
.0
P4
1 0.
I
0.0
/? /
/ I
0
8
$
O
1.q
/1.11
0
0
0. D
D
Wnsutfic. Into.
/2
0
121
7.4
D.0
7.4-
'1
0
q. 3
0.0
4-.3
4
01
4
44
0.6
LA
3
D
3
L
. D
4.L
7-Psychological
1
0
1
0.6
0.0
01.
0
0
_,O0
0.
0.0
I
1.
0.0
.5
0
1 0
0
0.0
?0
0.6
&unknowi
Z
O
42
Z,S
D.D
Is z
O4
/ ?2
ff
1
D0
1R
13
D
zz
4
D
3.
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2
g
3.
/J
'f
2
1
3
z2
.1
3.3
_
2
T
z
0-D
34
3
0
3
4,6
D
4
Total
99
63
/6Z
61.1
3R
/GIG.
50
4-Z
92
44
45
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3F1'
Z
6
?
SG?
93.
0?
4/
15
66
/a2./
39.9
I00
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FtU
w/
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cad
Evaluaton
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
ertain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
Doubtful
Total
ertain
Doubtful
Total
Cabin
Doubtful
Tod
Curio
Oahlful
Total
Chain
DnrbtNd
Tdr
o-eafbnn
2
?.4
2 S
166.3
7
0
7
/0.9
0. 0
/0.9
2
/0
7.5
/.
1.y
7
3
/0
y.9
2-l
11.0
I f-autmnomial
2
3 f
J
22 S
48.7
/1
29
/7-2
23.5
403
/
12
2
/ Y.(
j/. 2
25.2
:26
3
18.3
2? l
0.'l
12-ArrcraN
3
9
7.
3_
-3
/2
7.8
19.7
/Z
7
If
11-2
6?5
7.7
2
7
3
/6.2
Y?9
. I
.11
3-Light Pburmm.
c)
a
0
0
0. 0
0.0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
/
0
. 7
0. 0
0.7
4-Burris
0
0
0
0
0. 0
0.0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
9
2.8
0.0
1.9
0
1
5
1.9
0.7
3, s
SClaes, Dust, etc
0
0
0
0 0
0 0
0.0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.01
/
0-0
0. 9
-9
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6 nmtfic Info.
8
'91
9
0.0
0
10.0
3
0
3
4.7
0.0
y. 7
/5
0
S
q.
O
,0
4.0
21
0
'21
19.8
0.0
/
7-Psydmbpul
2
0
2
25
0. 0
2-5
0
0
0
0.0
0 . 0
0. 0
0
0
e
-
10
0. 0
.0
2
0
2
0. 0
bu+om.^
//
0
1
/3.8
0.0
13.8
0
9
/f/
0.
14.1
17-
0
5.9
0.0
15 9
2
0
4
2?4
O D
2 .6
soma
S
C
4.2
/ 3
7.51
7
0
10
0.0
/ 0.9
/ Y
0-
3.
14.0
2
D
2
1. 4
0.0
1
Trial
r
?
80
7D0
so.0
/00
1
cy
GPs
3/.3
/ao.
7/
3G
/07
66.9
33.6
100.
/28
/
/x1
90.1
9.9
100.
vas-
v
u sr
Evaluation
Numbs
Certain Doubtfu Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Certain Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Cabin Dabmd Total
Number
Main Doubtful Total
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Certain Doubtful Tod
Pee Cent
Certain Doubtful Total
aerloon
/ 8
73
112.0
3.3
/S.
19
e
35
/Y.
3.0
17?
9
Y B
/ 0
/O y
C. 2
/8.l
7f
If 2
B
1,
574
/
Zr.
1-Astronomical
23
3l
15.3
5.3
20-4
OS
7
46
11.
/0.41
ZO IV
4Y
/Ye
13-Y
S.7
/7/
47
Ly
1/
2-Aircraft
l
/S
33
112.0
/0.0
21.0
3o
/3
N3
/4.9
6?S
21?
06
81
IB
/ .7
/0.5'
7N:
307
94
Z9
7
S.
3-Light Palumbo.
3
Z
5
2.0
1.3
1.3
/
1
2
0.5
0.5
/. o
l
Y
19
0.5 0 = 5
-
7
7
.
14
.
/j
Z2
4-Bids
0
2
1
0.0
/-3
1.3
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
3
04
0. 4
0
.0
0
D.
0..
_
0.
5-Cluuds, oust, otc
0
2
0.0
/-3
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
/
7?
O j
0.1
.2.
0
1
1
),0
.z
o.
61nsufio Info.
1
0
2 2
/9.7
0.0
14.7
2
0
23
1/.9
0. 0
.1
dl
0
8/
10.5
0.0
1 0-S
42
0
4 A
9
do
qA~
2-Psydmlogfal
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0
G
3.0
0.0
3.0
f
8
17
1.2
1.0
z-1
1
.
bunlmorr
o
23
15.3
0.0
/5' 3
.9
3
6
3 8
/8
O.0
1.9
1141(4
0
Yl
Is R
1
-6
S7
0
87
31 /,~
1911
/ .
sourer
7
4.7
/.
1.0
/ 1
8
3, 5
S
?0
Z
1
30
3.
0?1
3.8
5
It,
z,
3
Tar
I/,
3H
/SO
77.3
27.7
/00,
ISf
y2
201
79?/
20.9
/00
85
/f0
77
74'.
245
/00.
2 I
S8
YY V31
11
3,
SEP7 HBE
OG
N
ce