MORNING MEETING - 28 FEBRUARY 1979

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00493R000100070001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 28, 1979
• Content Type: MIN

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MORNING MEETING - 28 February 1979
The DCI was in the chair.
1. I briefed on thel ituation in Vietnam.
Richard Lehman
NIO/Warning
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MORNING MEETING - 26 February 1979
The DCI was in the chair.
1. I briefed at some length on the war in Indochina and on
the Sino-Soviet frontier making the major point that the Chinese
were not fighting well and were in a strong position vis-a-vis the
Vietnamese.
2. I then mentioned three areas that I thought were of immediate
concern.
It was becoming increasingly clear that
that Khomeini/Bazargan are unable to bring
the situation under control and may well
be overwhelmed by the left.
In Lebanon the Christians are preparing for
another round with the Syrians at a time when
Arab defense force is melting away.
3. The Director asked that OSR do a study of specific Soviet
options for action along the Chinese border. He accepted my recom-
mendation that alert memoranda be prepared on Tran and Iohann.i ,ma
Richard Lehman
NIO/Warning
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20543
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Copy N~5Xl
National Intelligence Officers
26 February 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for National;Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM: Robert C. Ames
National Intelligence Officer for Near East and
South Asia
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia 25X1
where the Syrians have strengthened their presence.
2. Lebanon - The Christian militias are stepping up training and
rearming, in anticipation of another confronta-
tion with ns. a ris ian leadership remains adamant that
the Syrians must leave Lebanon. The Syrians have recorded this build-up
and are just as intransigent. Unless the Lebanese government is able to
field a meaningful army to replace the Syrians at various "hot points'"
the renewed daily flare ups will, once again, break out into full-scale
battles that will occur not only in Beirut, but also in North Lebanon,
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_?___- 3. Morocco - Continued strikes staged by leftist controlled unions,
ld
the concern
coupe with a poor economic performance and an apparent no-win war in
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To aenosinge
issue has coalesced these factors into a crisis, but the longer they
simmer, the more likely an issue, probably Sahara-related, will emerge.
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4. Iran - Khomeini does not appear to be in full control in the
highly radicalized environment in Iran. The strength of the left is
growing and coalescing, while it must appear to them that Khomeini is
indecisive and organizationally weak. It appears Khomeini will either
have to negotiate with the left-thereby lending it legitimacy-or
challenge it. Because he has no organized military or security force,
a challenge could lead to all out civil war, which the left is better 25X1
organized to handle. Unless Khomeini lets Bazargan start running the
country and reorganizing the military quickly, the left will soon be in 25X1
a position to call for inclusion in the government or a fight.
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7. Iraq-Syria Rapprochement - The surprisingly rapid pace of
cooperation between Iraq and Syria back in November and December waned
considerably when the Egyptian-Israeli treaty negotiations stagnated. 25X1
However, rapprochement could be given renewed impetus if an Egyptian-
Israeli treaty is signed or if Iraq becomes even more concerned about
the potential for instability from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Robert C. Ames
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Several factors lead us to believe that renewed heavy fighting
in Beirut between Christian militias and Syrian forces is likely
during the next two months or so:
--,Lebanon*s basic problems remain unresolved, and there.is no
evidence that either the Syrians or the Christians ready
to make the cones:,ions that would be necessary if renewed
fighting is to be avoided.
--Warmer weather will remove a serious restraint on Christian
leaders, who were reluctant to engage in major fighting while
their followers-including numerous refugees--,faced the rigors
of winter.
-The mandate of the Syrian-dominated Arab Deterrent Force comes =
up for renewal on April 26. The period of the last renewal-in
late October--wad the last flashpoint for heavy fighting.
-Developments that led to the fighting six months ago are already
being repeated:
-Fighting in Beirut has gradually, but steadily, escalated over
the past few weeks.
-Christian leaders this week launched a propaganda campaign
against renewal.
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Once fighting begins, there will be risks of ad Zed complications:
--Syria and Israel could be drawn into direct conflict
-The Syrian military will become more restless over suffering
casualties in a situation it cannot fully control.
-Although it & -.ems unlikely, Assad could decide to pull out-a
move that would precipitate renewed civil war in Lebanon.
Christian militia provocations in southern Lebanon, together with
Palestinian terrorist raids into Israel, also threaten to lead to
wider conflict in the south.
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MORNING MEETING - 2 February 1979
1. The DCI chaired the meeting.
2. Iran: Khomeini is to have a press conference tomorrow
morning at wEiich he is expected to announce his Islamic council.
There is some suggestion that Bakhtiar may resign and then head
a caretaker government under the council, thus resolving the
immediate impasse. Basically, however, nobody knows what Khomeini
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the course to civil war.
3. Indochina:
We are beginning to be worried that the
Chinese objective is not limited to winning a border flight, but
rather may be Hanoi itself. With most of the Vietnamese army
entangled in Kampuchea, the temptation must be high to "solve"
the Vietnamese problem once and for all. The possibilities of
miscalculation are very high, and we have to ask ourselves what
the Soviets will do if the Chinese objective is as suggested.
There is a ring of 1914 to all this, and Austria has marched on
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4. The Director asked for an assessment of likely Soviet
ronctions, to -such a cenario.
2/2
SF RET
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