THE DCI'S ROLE IN WARNING AND CRISIS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00493R000100050003-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 6, 2004
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: June 22, 1978
• Content Type: MF

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MEMORANDUM FOR: DDCI
DD/NFA
DD/CT
SUBJECT The DCI's Role in Warning and Crisis
1. In response to various requests by the DCI and DDCI,
a working group of officers from NFAC and NITC has produced
the attached study. At the working group level, the two
organizations concur in the study and its recommendations.
Inter alia these call for the DCI to appoint the DDCI as his
senior overseer for warning and crisis for the Community,
supported by an interagency committee and a full-time "Senior
Warning officer."
2. We believe the basic elements of overseer, com-
mittee, and senior warning officer are required to support
the DCI. While we recommend that the DDCI head this struc-
ture, it could equally well be headed by the DCI himself.
A decision on who is to head it can only be made by the
principals themselves, after which the appropriate level
and location of committee and warning officer can be
sorted out. The next step, therefore, should be for the
addressees of this memorandum to consult among themselves
on the basis of our study as to what recommendation should
be made to the DCI.
3. A list of working group members is attached
Richard a an
AD/NFAC/SS
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SECRET
THE ROLE OF THE DCI
IN WARNING AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT
22 June 1978
i
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SECRET
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The Role of the DCI in Warning and Crisis Management
Page
Introduction ............................... iv
Warning .................................... iv
Crisis Management .......................... Vii
Conclusion ................................. viii
I. INTRODUCTION ................................ 1
II. BACKGROUND .................................. 3
A. Current Intelligence and Warning:
Definitions ............................ 3
B. The Defense Interest ................... 6
C. The DCI in Crisis .... .......... .. 8
D. Collection Tasking in crisis and warning 10
E. Criteria for a Warning and Crisis
System ................................. 13
III. DISCUSSION .................................. 15
A. Permanent Management Arrangements ...... 16
The Problem of Accountability .......... 18
An Interagency Committee ............... 21
Staff Support .......................... 22
B. Mechanisms for Warning ................. 24
Warning and Current Intelligence: The
Need for Challenge Mechanisms ......... 27
Criteria for a Warning System ........... 32
C. Special Mechanisms for Strategic Warning 36
The Strategic Warning Staff ............ 36
Changes in the SWS ..................... 37
The Need for a "Network" ............... 39
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Contents
(Continued)
D.
Arrangements for Support of the DCI
in Crisis .............................
41
Role of the Task Force .................
44
Role of the NIO ........................
47
The Situation Report Problem ...........
47
A National Crisis Reporting Structure ..
51
Miscellaneous ..........................
53
E.
DCI Arrangements for Collection Tasking
in Warning and in Crisis ..............
55
F.
The Knotty Problem of Location .........
57
IV. RECOMMENDATIONS .............................
60
A.
Management .............................
61
B.
Warning ...... .........................
62
C.
Strategic Warning ......................
62
D.
Crisis Management ......................
64
E.
Collection Tasking .....................
65
ANNEX:
History of Warning in the Community ......
68
CHARTS:
I.
National Organization for warning:
1954-1974
II.
III.
Examples of Crises
National Organization for Warning:
1975-1978
IV
National Crisis Reporting Structure:
Role of the DCI
.
V.
Alternate Task Force Locations and Their Merits
VI.
National Organization for Warning: Proposed 1978
VII.
National Organization for Strategic Warning:
Proposed 1978
VIII. National Crisis Reporting Structure: Elements
Supporting the DCI
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
The prime function for the DCI always has been to
provide warning and especially Strategic Warning. Many
intelligence elements contribute to this, but the jointly
manned Strategic Warning Staff (SWS) and the now vacant
position for a Special Assistant to the DCI for Strategic
Warning are the only national elements clearly responsible
for warning. The DCI also has been responsible for sup-
porting the President and NSC in crises, and arrangements
have evolved in CIA to do this.
This is the initial report of a joint NFAC/NITC work-
ing group that has reexamined warning and crisis manage-
ment in light of the Intelligence Community reorganization.
The group also directed its work toward responding to the
House Permanent Select Committee (HPSCI) on Community or-
ganization for warning. This report sets a conceptual
framework and then makes specific recommendations.
Current intelligence is the reporting of events, ex-
plaining their background and significance, and projecting
events in the short term. Warning (small-w) is a principal
mission of current intelligence and is in certain respects
a subdiscipline of it. Strategic Warning (big-W) is even
more specialized and focuses on the possibility of conflict
with a major adversary.
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discretion, would notify the President and the NSC. The
Special Assistant and the SWS were also directed to submit
to the DCI and NFIB principals studies and recommendations
for improving the community's strategic warning capa-
bilities.
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