CENTRAL AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002800020076-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 18, 2001
• Sequence Number: 76
• Publication Date: October 31, 1978
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Release 2001/Q9/03R: CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
DCI Notes
31 October 78
I. Nica
ragu
a
A.
FSLN Prognosis - not doing well, but
(Nicaragua
1.
Threat of more attacks still high
Map)
2.
Disarray doesn't mean pressure will go off -
3.
feel must not let Somoza regroup
There are units large enough to initiate major attacks
4.
- Then others will jump on bandwagon
Still the National Guard will be able to defeat them
militarily so long as general populace doesn't join in.
B.
Mediation - some disarray
1.
Opposition plan has been tabled
2.
Withdrawal of Group of Twelve creates potential
roblems
(Group of
Twelve Chart)
3.
p
- Inhibits remaining groups &
- Spotlights question of Somoza's early departure
Somoza's side initially very unreceptive to opposition plan
(El Salvador II. Impact on nearby El Salvador
Map)
(Economic
Chart)
A. Central American basket case - Deep seated problems may be
triggered off big events in Nic
1. Too many people
- 210 km2 equals India
- 3.2% population growth last 15 yrs
2._ Rigid socie v & economy
Coffee predominates plus sugar, cotton
Little social mobility
- U even income distribution
3. Safety valve migration shut off '69
25,000 illegally enter US/year
4 . Insular, extremely c s.er
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
- Vivid memory of 1932 peasant uprising (14,000 dead)
- Prrogressive elements too few, too scattered
5. President (ex-general) Romero
a. 16 mos. record disappointing
b. Most believe initial promising rhetoric sham
- Let dialogue with opposition and Church die
- Has aggressively attacked Church
- Lifted state of siege
- But passed Law of Public Order-broad detention power
B. Political violence, terrorism up post 75
1. Largest guerrilla organization, FPL now 600 militants -
2500 supporters (larger than was FSLN a year ago)
- May be encouraged events Nic - or imminence in problems
might trigger Gov't to send help - in turn incite R,
encourage opposition at home
- FPL controls 60,000 member front organization
2. FPL - $9 million ransom last year-kidnapped/killed
foreign minister last year
- No member FPL terrorist action element apprehended
3. FPL cooperates with Guatemalan terrorists, has reached
agreement with Cuba for military/ideological training
C. Further signs unrest
1. Rural clashes with securit; fnr(PS earlier this year--
continued recruitment by pro and anti-government groups
2. More demonstrations, more weaponry available
D. El Salvador could
1. May limp along-sporadically violent
- Violence could be met by repression-possible right wing coup
2. But possibility of suiralina violence-situation,could provide
martyr and leader extremists now lack
3. Nntrnnfi rient__we'~
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
S E C R E T
E. As always in Central America, US would be expected to pick up
the pieces
- We are providing State with detailed assessments to assist
their contingency planning
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
EL
SALVADOR
San
M1:guel
La Union_
_-~~o fl y ~ ) ChQluteca~
TEGUCIGALPA
f ~.., z
Puerto; Matagalpa
.,_Mgrazan _.
China"ega
Puerto
Lempira _
Waspan
Cabo Gracias
a Dios
ri
uerto
abezas
1t
Orinzapolca
CARIBBEAN
n
f 11
' Boaco
CHONTALEE Rama
dido
Juiga1pa
Blue-field
Acoyapa s
ranada ~ S
i
O N D U R A
Juticalpa,/X
Masachapa 7' Jinotepe
~('A RAZOI
NICARAGUA
-- Ilternatio ra bouriarv
Department boundary
w National capital
o Department capta
-- Railroad
Road
ri. a~lmems ar., ~amec ol~ wne~e :tee
..u ,rr. I re r adm rms'al ve Cap lal=_
51 K~lometes
I5 LA DE
OMETEPE
LAGO
RiO
SAN
JUAN
San Juan
del Norte
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
El Salvador
HONDURAS
OCEAN
NICARA. UA
Railroad
Road
+ Airport
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0
El Salvador and Central America Selected Indicators
Note change in scales
El Salvador Costa Rica Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua
0 50
100
150
200
1250
Mid-78 Population Density
(people/km2)
- ---
0 1%
2%
3%
4%
',5%
Population Growth Rate
(61-77)
0 20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1977 Literacy
0 300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1977 Per Capita Income
(Current US S)
0 2%
4%
6%
8%
;10%
GNP Growth Rate
(71-78 Average)
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020076-0