SPAIN AND PORTUGAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002800020027-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 20, 2001
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: August 8, 1978
• Content Type: OUTLINE

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SPAIN AND PORTUGAL
INTRODUCTION
I. Obvious points in common turbulent period.
II. Differences -- each doing its own thing.
A. Spanish working by consensus
-- Legacy of civil war
B. Spanish right weak
-- Legacy of Franco
III. Personalities important too.
-- Suarez vs. Soares: Minority governments. To right OS left.
- Spanish Eurocommunist Santiago Carrillo
contrasts to Conhal
-- Juan Carlos vs. Eanes
IV. Transformation from Franco to parliamentary democracy still on track.
V. Achievements Impressive.
A. Austere economic program pretty much adhered to.
B. Pact to control terrorists.
C. Labor unrest contained.
D. New constitution drafting progressing. Lower House. October.
E. Regional unrest dampened, by promises.
VI. Economy still needs nursing.
-- Inflation down 10 to 15%. Unemployment 8% and up.
-- Pact renegotiated next year. Labor.
VII. Military still nervous.
-- Autonomy, breakdown of centrist state.
-- Leftist tendency. PSOE 34% vs. 29% for UDC. Socialists
have radicals, anti-US, anti-NATO. But Gonzalez gaining.
Soare
-- Comm ists moving steady to right.
Legitimacy. Keeps PSOE in line (contrast w/Portugal where
drag to left).
VIII. Regional Autonomy Hardest Problem.
A. Basque Nationalist Party Wavering.
B. Terrorists - last ditch.
C. Catalonia.
D. Will probably solve but close call.
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IX. For Policy
A. EC. Formal negotiations next year. Long process
(shoes, textiles, steel), but probably favorable.
B. NATO. Suarez. Socialists, Military.
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r ESIDENTIL BRIEFING:
Introduction
I. Spain and Ports ai have obvious points in common: both are feeling
the'r way toward a new democratic structure after decades of dictator-
ship;, and sheer propinquity makes each conscious of events in the
other.
A. During the turbuient period of leftist governments in Portugal,
for example, Spanish rightists worried that Spain might he
infected.
A turn away from democracy in Portugal might have repercussions
inside Spain; conversely, continuing stability in Spain might
dampen instability in Portugal to a degree.
The dominant impress ion at the moment, however, is & the differences
between Lie two countries: differences that have their origins in
divergent national characteristics and divergent histories. Most of
the eaders in both countries seem to be concentrating on the details
of domestic politics, and each country is dealing with its own
problems in its own way:
A. The Spanish, propelled by an urge for consensus that is aston-
ishing in its strength and persistence, are painstakingly working
toward a new constitutional structure aimed at taking account
of political sentiment across the spectrum.
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b. fcr~tu_al . i is populace and even i t.s po tic ian,; fatigued by the
turmoil of the last four years. is the -,cene ct perennial inter-
party siuabbles--squahbles that last week led co the collapse
or 1ario So,:ares' second covernment.
,I--- LIon to the historic factors, the differences are traceable
n a,
t;the per:onaiities in the two countries:
- in Soc,in, Prime Minister Suarez, a career ulvi1 servant who is
c nsummate behind-the-scenes n goti ~t r; in Portugal, ;';trio
Soares, who wes always :j partisan party leader first and a
premier second;
?n Srnain, the "Luroconar,unist" Santiago ?rriIlo; in Portugal
he al ini st Alvaro Curkal
- In Spain, ring Juan Carlos, remote but decisive when he feels
it necessary; in Portugal, President Eanes, who has yet to
decide how active a role to play in everyday politics.
in Spain the civilian right has proved surprisingly weak so
fr, whereas Portuguese conservatives are Moth significant and strident.
None of this is to say that Spain has its problems solved and Portugal
is headed for ruin,- In fact, either could be thrown off course by
ma=ur problems that remain unaddressed.
Spain
. The transformation from Francoist authoritarianism to parliamentary
democracy in Spain is still on track, largely due to the moderation
and desire for consensus that has dominated relations among the
major parties for almost two years.
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NC'EQPh'
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Y "J
~~ ,n~toor. 1e(?tip or of "r~ quIck~~~ So orizatiat CUii (JOt out
of hand.
_i.'tors has allo wed Suarez to
Thy ti mo c rd o n ~ r' _ (.
of L!1 i~~ r
ul' off , del gate i a'u^ : in: act to overt -!- t i;e :rinori ty Stu;; of
his iovernnrent --fie I ac ks tnairi the le:._r house--co chalk up
on rpr_ss ve l it of acn`vtm`~nte since the first free parliamz_ntary
election one ye r
All even tr ~Y'oUp- ini.I;'11!Ia hE: Colnrrrrrrii51.5~ ?C'i'!Nt.o _
a noderatel y ustero er _:r,or,i grogram. t r., rai l ,.,d. ' , errd I gave -truer',,. to i'
.~?'.it the s!ral l ;hi.l ;t ?oculai an Ce ira Ve it s_ 5-! !i[. '1 0
imii"r pas t ;rimed ,-rt controlling terrorist viol ence !ir!
tho,ecuri ty forces und,2 rr t,_ tter government control
kef-,
C. a.ec;i r;a) unrest has Lee-n r:,,: erred (except in the vrolatile Basque
r-pion) by grants of pm r .:i sional autono.oiy and by promises of a
more formal devolution ;.f rowers under the new constitut.ion~.
D. Labor unrest has hen contained and the first free plant-level
elections in forty years w; -e held this spring.
F. Tire drift o f ii ni?4`i COnS':1 t'ri-lr~n hoc jr et 7a55ed the lower house
of parliament and W,Wi11 it;-o:_a-')ly be adproved by ref2rendurrt early
-hi fal l .
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