TALKING POINTS ON LIBYA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002100090002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 1, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 9, 1978
• Content Type: PAPER

Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
Talking Points on Libya
I. Changes in Libya's International Behavior:
reduced involvement in international terrorism
9 November 1978
-- reduced support of regional dissidents
10
- improved relations with-mod
e Ar_g (e.g. Morocco!)
II. Qadhafi's Motivation Is Expediency
reaction to Egyptian military threat
A1 s-o- t-- -with-Sari e +i as : Soviet advisors have doubled
from 700 to 1,200-1,500 since July 1976
possible reaction to US trade sanctions
-- concern about his increasingly precarious domestic nositiop
III. Prospects
? suspicions of officer corps since Umar Muhayshi's
unsuccessful coup in 1975 -- tempered by appointment
of Qadhafi loyalists to key military jobs and by recent
reorganization
Widespread objections to_Greenbogc -- tempered by economic
prosperity _
- Qadhafi sobered, if not mellowed, by recent experiences
- His position is increasingly tenuous and reliant on repression
He'll continue to be more cautious,
SECRET)
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Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
 Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
Madanin
Dianet
t%Ghzt,i~
Adirii
Wadi ash ~
-24
MaridahJ /
At Raquhah Zallan
Lambert Conformal Projection
Standard parallels 8o and 320
Scale 1:10,550,000
16 20
- Railroad
Road
Airport
Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
 Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
is
Libya's Arms Inventory
(Major Weapons)
Estimated Value of Soviet-bloc Weapons Contracts
1974-1978-$2.6 billion
Equipment
Medium Tanks
Armored Personnel Carriers
Artillery
Combat-Capable Aircraft
Surface-to-Air Missiles
Surface-to-Surface Missiles
Submarines
Frigates
Missile Patrol Boats
Number and Country of Origin
700 Soviet/800 Polish/
600 Czechoslovak
815 Soviet/165 Italian/
120 Czechoslovak
130 Soviet/50 Italian/30 US
205 Soviet/110 French
39 Battalions Soviet/
8 Batteries French
40 Launchers Soviet
3 Soviet
1 British
6 Soviet/3 British
0
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Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
 Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
 Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
Talking Points on Algeria
- became ill in Damascus in mid-September
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406%
~rtss ~~6~psp
II. Mood of uncertainty in Algiers
e&t 411
-- could encourage maneuvering by competing factions
? one faction wants socialist economy, close ties with
USSR, and a hardline stance on Western Sahara
? other faction favors a less controlled economy, more
European than Arab orientation, a truly nonaligned policy
behind-the-scenes political maneuvering more likely than a resort
to force by these factions
-T National Assembly President Rabah Bitah becomes chief of state
for maximum of 45 days
special party congress and presidential election
key Army officers likely to control future government
IV. Outlook
-- some softening of Algeria's position on Western Sahara
-- other domestic or foreign policy changes unlikely
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Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
 Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1
ALGERIA
International boundary
Departement boundary
O* National capital
0 Departement capital
- Standard-gage railroad
Narrow-gage railroad
Road
Departements have the same name as their
administrative center except where noted.
0 100 200 300 Miles
2003
0 100 0 200 300 Kilometers
Approved For Release 2004/01/20 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002100090002-1