STRATEGY FOR THE SHAH

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002000120006-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 52
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2002
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: November 6, 1978
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2002/08128 :CCkA-LRI P81 800401 R002000120006-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
6 November 1978
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM . Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
SUBJECT: : Strategy for the Shah
1. In our view the Shah has only a very limited time to
turn the situation around even if the new military government
succeeds in restoring order.
2. Essentially, what the Shah must do is to create a conviction
among the diverse groups which oppose him that he has recognized
the need to change priorities and direction in various ways. Merely
saying that he is doing so will probably not be adequate given the
strong feelings and doubts about him which have been manifested in
recent weeks. Consequently, the Shah should be encouraged to take
a series of actions which will dramatize the fact that he has changed
nr ties and rPro~nized the need for reforms. This is the context
within which the various proposals should--6e resented:
a. The request for a group of ipternational la,,yers to
draft an election law and oversee its carrying out;
b. The request to the orld Bank for a mission to review
the program for development;
c. The request to the IMF to advise on wage rates:
d. Perhaps other requests for explicit international
advise or missions to assist on other economic issues.
CL BY 027334
E2, IMPDET
SECRET
State Dept. review completed
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 Approved For Release 2002/08/21 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002000120006-4
e. The creation. of a respected commission to weed out
corruption.
3. In pre ese changes the Shah might well use the
method urged by~of talking informally on TV and dealing
frankly with the past abuses or mistakes which these measures could
be designed to overcome.
4. Only if the Shah is able to re-establish his own llegitimac,,
and creiih~~ity with at least some of the groups who are critical
25X1 C
reinforce the effects of his
own actions; they cannot be a substitute for them.
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25X1 C
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6 November 1978
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 Approved For Release 2002/08/21 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002000120006-4
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For Release 2002/08/21 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002000120006-4
 Approved For Release 2002/08/21 CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002000120006-4
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Approved For Release 2002/08/21 : CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002000120006-4
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 'Approved For lease 2002/08/21-: CIA-RDP81 BO0401 RO02000120006-4
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
~''PGr ?,1 TEHRAN 10616 0612382
ACTION 'SEA-11 ,
SSA1ZS
IN O OcT-01 ISO-00. NEAE-00 SAA-01 10-14 SES-01 CIAE-00
DODE-00 PM-05 L-ti1 INF.-1;d L-03 NSAL-CZ CSC-05
PA-01 SP-02 SS-15 ICA-11 CO?AE-00 . EB.-i2 LAY-Z
SIL-01 DCE-15 SOE-02 SY-05 OPR-02 USSS-00 SYE-00
A-02 CC-06 CCO-00 MCT-02 HA-05 AID-05 OMB-01
;t
SCS-06 FBOE-0+0 SSC-00 /145
------------------
P 8
P 251025Z NOV 78
FM AMEMBASSY TFE-4 AN
TO SECSTATE UASftDC PRIORITY 1403
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE TEHRAN 10816
.-E.O. 11652:N/A
0613252 /40
TAGS: i LAB, In
SUBJ: THE DETERIORATING LABOR SITUATION IN IRAN
M OF T3'r'
OS
1.. SUMMARY. THE LABOR SITUATION, AS A MICFtOC
ECONOMIC-POLITICAL SITUATION IN IRAN AS A CHILE, ISZ
DEGENERATING RAPIDLY. TIE NIOC STRIKE HAS
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A roved For Release 2002/08/21: CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002000120006-4