USSR-AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R000600230016-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2005
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: January 8, 1980
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2A8Ri,l i5' o6e tl9ZbtATff8 f401 R000600230016-7
Washingon. D. C. 20505
8 JAN 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Strategic Warning Staff
SUBJECT : USSR-Afghanistan
The performance of your Staff during the period pre-
ceding massive Soviet intervention in Afghanistan was
exemplary. Through your attendance at various meetings
and your memoranda to the National Intelligence Officer for
Warning, you caused the Intelligence Community to consider
alternate, more ominous, hypotheses. As a result, our
policymakers were warned as early as 14 September of the
possibility that Soviet troops would be employed in Afghan-
istan. It is encouraging to witness such a resounding in-
telligence success, for which you deserve a large share of
the credit. Well done.
/s/ Stansiaieid Turf
.STANSFIELD TURNER
All Portions of this memorandum
are classified SECRET
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SUMMARY
USSR-Afghanistan Memoranda from Strategic Warning Staff
10 August : There is a strong likelihood that the Soviets will commit
a limited amount of combat forces, and are likely to find
themselves being drawn into a larger operation.
(to NIO/W)
24 August : A'knumber of events in recent days point to an impending
increase in Soviet military aid--suggesting that the
decision to increase support has in fact already been
made.
(to NIO/W)
28 August : A request that attachee tasking for Kabul be expanded to
include Soviet air activity was submitted to DIA 25
6 September: We are not arguing that the Soviets have made a decision
to commit combat troops (although they may have) but that
they have made decisions which indicate they are prepared
to introduce forces if that is what it takes to preserve
their position.
(to NIO/W)
14 September: On balance, taking into account the evidence available to
us, we believe there is a better than even chance that the
report of Soviet troop movement to Afghanistan is accurate.
.(to NIO/W)
21 September: Following is a chronology of Soviet military activities in
the week which we view as indications of possible Soviet
intentions to introduce combat forces into Afghanistan.
(to NIO/W)
26 October : We are concerned that in the month that has been elapsed
since the USSR-Afghanistan Alert Memorandum (14 September),
the Soviets appear tohave put themselves in position to
move a larger ground combat force into Afghanistan in less
time with less advance warning.
(to NIO/W, readdressed to Warning Working Group on
29 October)
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12 December: Continuing analysis leads me to believe we should immed-
iately produce a follow-up to the 14 September Alert
Memorandum. The Soviets appear to be preparing to intro-
duce sizeable combat forces into Afghanistan.
(to NIO/W)
13 December: I left the meeting yesterday with the feeling that we had
not accomplished much. Most of those present seemed to
continue to hold the view that the Soviets are moving
tentatively. By their actions, the Soviets have indicated
they are willing to take the large political step of put-
ting their own combat units into a foreign country.
(to NIO/W)
14 December: We believe the additional indications we have detected in
recent days are particularly significant in that they sug-
gest that the forces to be committed come from units other
than just the 105th Guards-Airborne Division.
(to NIO/W)
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Approved For Release 2005/11/23 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R000600230016-.7