THE POSSIBILITY OF SOVIET CROSS-BORDER ACTIONS DIRECTED AT AFGHAN REFUGEES IN PAKISTAN (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R000600220003-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 20, 2005
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: March 26, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
National Foreign Assessment Center
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26 March 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
FROM:
SUBJECT:
REFERENCE:
James P. Lynch
Director of Geographic and Cartographic Research
The Possibility of Soviet Cross-border Actions Directed
at Afghan Refugees in Pakistan
Your Request for Information on this Topic
1. Attached is a typescript memorandum on the Afghan refugees in
Pakistan as a source of provocation and possible retaliatory action by
Soviet forces in Afghanistan, as recently requested by you. The accompanyin
map shows the distribution of refugee camps in the Pakistan border region.
2. The memorandum was prepared by East Asia Branch,
Geography Division, Office of Geographic and Cartographic Research.
3. The memorandum has been coordinated within t
Force and with the NIO for Near East and South Asia.
Attachment:
Afghan Refugees in Pakistan:
Potential for Soviet Intervention?
(GC M 80-10027)
anistan Task
Jamgs P. Lynch c)
Confidential When Detached from Attachment
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00401R000600220003-2
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SUBJECT: The Possibility of Soviet Cross-border Actions Directed at Afghan
Refugees in Pakistan
25X1 OGCR/GD
bkw/
26Mar80)
Distribution: (each w/cy of attachment)
Orig - Addressee
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - D/OCO
1 - OCR/ISG
1-- PB/NSC Coordinator
1 - OER/D/D
1 - OIA/ERD/RSB
1 - State/Office of Refugee Affairs
1 - OPA/SOA
1 - OSR/RA
1 - DDO/NESA
1 - OCR/NE/SA
1 - 0/OCR
1 - SA/D/GCR
1 - Ch/GD/OGCR
2 - GD/EA
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Afghan Refugees in Pakistan: Potential for Soviet Intervention?
Summary
Afghan resistance efforts are receiving support from families
encamped as refugees in Pakistan, and from related tribes who live
in the Pakistani borderlands. Soviet and Afghan military forces
may attempt to curb cross-border activity when weather conditions
improve in April and May. If retaliatory action is taken against
refugee groups in Pakistan, likely danger zones are in the ,upper
Konar Valley in Chitral District, in Mohmand tribal territory north
of the Khyber Pass, and the area of Parachinar in the Kurram Valley.
The Pakistani Government may choose to reduce the strain in Soviet-
Pakistani relations by removing refugees-from the border area.
L I
GC M 80-10027
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Afghan Refugees in Pakistan: Potential for Soviet Intervention?
Support for rebels in Afghanistan by Afghan refugees in the border
zones of Pakistan could provoke retaliatory action by Soviet forces in
Afghanistan. Afghan male refugees re-enter Afghanistan from Pakistan to
defend their tribal homelands from what they perceive as -ale godless
government in Kabul. They return periodically to Pakistani territory to
visit their familes, to acquire arms and ammunition, and to seek medical
treatment, in effect using the frontier areas of Pakistan as safehavens.
They are included in the "foreign elements" accused by Afghan Government
and Soviet spokesmen of being responsible for the widespread dissidence
in Afghanistan.
Pakistani Government authorities have tried to discourage activities
by the refugees that would precipitate a border incident, and have
restricted their official support to relief aid in the form of food,
medicine, and other humanitarian supplies. But they cannot prevent the
movement of small groups of people back and forth across the border,
which cuts through mountainous terrain in tribal territory over which
government forces have never exercised more., than-limited control.
Apart from rhetoric, the Afghan Government and the Soviet authorities
have been restrained in their reactions to refugee cross-border activities.
Last fall the Afghan Government--probably at the urging of Soviet
advisers--attempted to defuse the refugee situation by establishing a
grace period for the return of the refugees without reprisals. Although
the period was extended, few refugees accepted the offer. More recently,
indicated that unless the refugees
returned in the near future, they would forfeit forever their rights in
their homeland. ' s
There is some indication that Soviet officials are now willing to
consider retaliatory air strikes against rebel sanctuaries in Pakistan.
In addition, the rugged terrain in the border zone would not preclude
small cross-border land-based raids by the Soviets, although land
operations using mechanized ?nt would be restricted to three or
four major crossing points.
Retaliation Danger Zones
The spring offensive by Afghan and Soviet military forces in the
Konar Valley in eastern Afghanistan, which began in early March, increased
the flow of refugees into Pakistan along the section of the border north
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of the Khyber Pass. Present danger zones for refugee-caused incidents
are in the upper Konar Valley in Chitral District and in Mohmand tribal
territory. During the past 18 months, the Mohmands in Pakistan have
actively supported their tribal relatives in Afghanistan. Several
large-scale--though abortive--raids into eastern Afghanistan originated
in Mohmand territory.
If the Soviet forces expand their guerrilla-clearing operations
into the provinces south of the Kabul River Valley, the primary danger
zone will be the Parachinar area of the Kurram Valley. In this region
are concentrations of refugees from the tribes which have been most
active in the guerrilla activity in the environs of Khowst, in Paktia
Province. Most of the routes from neighboring Nangarhar, Lowgar, and
Paktia Provinces in Afghanistan funnel into the Kurram Valley, which
provides access to the Pushtun tribal gun and ammunition manufacturing
center at Darra, in the hills south of Peshawar. The Kurram Valley is
a traditional invasion route into Pakistan from Afghanistan; at its
closest point, Pakistani territory is only about 90 kilometers from
Kabul.
The Numbers
By current best estimates, more than 600,000-Afghan refugees are
located in the border areas of Pakistan from Chitral in the north as
far south and west as Dalbandin, in Baluchistan Province. Most are
in the North-West Frontier Province; fewer than 90,000 are in Baluchistan.
The number in the northern areas will swell as refugees from the current
military operations make their way to Pakistan. Reportedly they are
already on their way toward Bajaur District and Mohmand tribal territory.
If Soviet anti-guerrilla operations continue to expand, the refu ee
totals in Pakistan could approach 1 million by April or May.
Most of the refugee influx occurred during the last six months.
A trickle of refugees began to flow toward Pakistan in May 1978. The
number of registered refugees in camps increased from approximately
18,000 in January 1979 to 153,000 in September 1979, then doubled to
390,000 by January 1980. Many uncounted Afghans have been absorbed
into tribes in Pakistan related to their own.
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Currently, there are 53 loose concentrations of refugees, which
in a broad sense can be considered camps. Of these, 23 are in the
North-West Frontier Province and 30 in Baluchistan. The size of these
encampments ranges from 500 to 11,000; the number fluctuates as refugees
move in and out. Most of the refugees not in camps are in the North-
West Frontier Province. Many of these are clustered in groups of three
to eight families, encamped wherever water is available. Scarcity of
water and forage in the arid border zone limits the size of encampments
and dictates periodic moves.
Composition of Refugee Groups
No clear pattern on the composition of the refugee groups emerges.
Children up to 14 years old constitute a third to half the total number
of refugees, and in most camps there are twice as many children as
women. The ratio of men to women is high in some camps, low in others.
The camps with comparatively large percentages of males are in Pishin
and Zhob Districts in Baluchistan. One of the largest of the refugee
camps, with 11,000 people near Loralai, for example, is 38 percent male,
31 percent female, and 31 percent children. At another encampment in
Baluchistan, a group of 300 Hazara males--ages 18 to 35--arrived without
women and children, saying that the trip would have been too arduous for
them. They are seeking weapons, not food and shelter.
Cross-border tribal ties, combined with the tendency to travel in
extended family units, has enabled the refugees to survive without much
government support. The need, however, for food, shelter, and sanitation
systems is great. Most refugees eventually register with government
agencies in order to establish eligibility for relief supplies, including
UN aid administered by the Pakistan Government.
Some clearly are not refugees in the normal meaning of the term.
In determining refugee status, the Pakistani Government is systematically
excluding kuchis, the nomads who annually migrate from the mountains in
Afghanistan into the warmer valleys in Pakistan during the winter.
Trying to justify their registration as refugees, and thus their
eligibility for government largesse, the kuchis say that although they
arrived as usual last fall, they do not plan to return to Afghanistan
this spring because of unsettled conditions there. Most of the kuchis
are Ghilzais, and are concentrated in the Gomal and Tochi River valleys
in Waziristan, and in Baluchistan.
Almost all the 600,000 refugees--kuchi and non-nomadic alike--are
Pushtuns. In the Peshawar Valley and to the north, they are mostly
members of the Safi, Mohmand, Shinwari, and Khugiani tribes; in the
Kurram and Waziristan areas they are principally Jajis, Mangals, Jadrans,
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Waziris, Mahsuds, and Ghilzais. Most of the refugees in Baluchistan are
from semi-nomadic Durrani tribes. Pushtuns who arrived from urban areas
in Afghanistan flocked to Peshawar, the center of refugee activity, and
to Quetta; the minority who could afford it moved on to Western Europe
and the United States. Those from rural villages are scattered along
the border and generally close to it. It is these rural Pushtun tribesmen,
with warrior traditions and conservative Islamic outlook, who se
the most inflexible and active opposition to Communist rule.
Spring in the Borderlands: A Season for Change
A resumption of activity in the borderlands can be anticipated with
the coming of spring in April and May. Harsh winter conditions have
restricted military activity in Afghanistan's eastern provinces, confining
Soviet and Afghan military forces to strong points along the main roads
and at Gardez and Khowst. Whatever action is planned by them to control
or reduce cross-border activity probably will be taken at that time.
Officially closing the border could reduce but not eliminate cross-
border movement between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The rugged mountainous
terrain, with hundreds of seldom-used border passes makes effective
patrolling extremely difficult.
The concentration of refugees in the ftoximity of the border is an
issue in Soviet-Pakistani relations that the Pakistanis may attempt to
defuse. They may attempt to move the refugees into camps away from the
border area to facilitate distribution of relief supplies, to better
control the movement of the refugees in the frontier areas, and to
reduce the inevitable tensions that will erupt between the refugees and
the local population over grazing and water rights and other economically
based issues. The refugees have exhibited a reluctance to leave the
border area, near their homelands, and may resist the government's
efforts to relocate them; moreover, many are not acclimated to the high
summer temperatures at lower elevations in the hill lands.
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Spot elevations in feet
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Names and boundary representation
are not necessarily authoritative