FINAL DRAFT OF SOVIET-CUBAN IIM (S)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R000200020003-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 6, 2005
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: August 22, 1979
• Content Type: MF

TOP SECRET
Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP81 B00401 R000200020003-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Officers 22 August 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM
National Intelligence Officer for USSR-EE
SUBJECT Final Draft of Soviet-Cuban IIM
1. Attached is the final edited draft of the Soviet-Cuban
Military Relations IIM, revised to take into account changes
agreed to at our 2 August cleanup meeting, including changes in
the Key Judgments circulated for your approval on 8 August.
2. I would like to have representatives' telephonic
concurrences Q no later than Friday, COB 24 August
so that this long-delayed IIM can be forwarded promptly to
the Director of Central Intelligence for his approval and
for placement on the NFIB schedule for formal review by your
principals on the next available date. i
, dtd 22Aug79
DISTRIBUTION:
State - William D. Howells
DIA -
NSA -
Air Force - u u p y
Army - Robert E. Blake
Navy - Charles Summerall
Upon Removal of Attachment and
Caveats this Memo is Downgraded
to SECRET
1
DERIVATIVE CL BY SIGNER
REVIEW ON AUG99
Derived from 'Multiple
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KEY JUDGMENTS .................................... 1
DISCUSSION ....................................... 12
Overview ... . 12
The Nature of the Relationship .............. 13
Soviet Modernization of Cuban Forces ........ 15
The Soviet Presence ......................... 18
Soviet Military Use of Cuba .................. 22
The African Connection ...................... 27
The Caribbean and Central America ........... 29
Incentives and Constraints 32
The View From Havana ................... 32
The View From Moscow ................... 36
Trends ............ 37
Future Use of Cuban Facilities by
Soviet Forces ......................... 37
Deliveries to Cuba ..................... 40
Possible Future Involvement in Africa 47
Prospects for Middle East
Involvement ........................... 52
The Caribbean and Central America ...... 54
Cuba in the US-Soviet Context .......... 57
Contingencies That Could Affect
Soviet Responses ...................... 58
Annex A: Background to the Cuban-Soviet
Relationship ........................... A-1
Annex B: Organizational Ties .................... B-1
Annex C: Soviet Military Facilities and
Capabilities in Cuba ................... C-1
Annex D: Soviet-Cuban Techniques of Projecting
Military Power ......................... D-1
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1. The Soviet-Cuban military relationship, which
has strengthened since its inception in the early 1960s,
clearly entered a new phase in 1975. The USSR embarked
on a major program to upgrade Cuba's defenses and to give
it the capability to conduct military operations in the
Third World. Together the two countries entered into
overt military intervention in Africa. For four years
they have worked together with increasing confidence
to promote the fortunes of Third World governments and
revolutionary groups they favor.
2. The broad decision to modernize the Cuban
armed forces apparently was made during 1975, probably
before the Cuban involvement in Angola had become a major
intervention. Some of the weapon systems delivered since
1975, however, may have been added to the modernization
program as a "reward" for Cuba's actions in Angola and
Ethiopia and as a result of a mutual desire to enhance
Cuba's capabilities in future Third World conflicts.
In any event, the weaponry supplied by the USSR since 1975
is transforming the Cuban armed forces from a home defense
force into a military power with formidable offensive capa-
bilities relative to those of Cuba's Latin American neigh-
bors, and enables it to sustain an active interventionist
role in the Third World.
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