Alert Memorandum on USSR-Afghanistan

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00080R001400120001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 14, 1979
• Content Type: MF

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MEMORANDUM FOR: The National Security Council
SUBJECT : Alert Memorandum on USSR-Afghanistan (U)
The Soviet leaders may be on the threshold of a decision to commit
their own forces to prevent the collapse of the Taraki regime and protect
their sizable stake in Afghanistan. Small Soviet combat units may already
have arrived in the country. I am concerned that the Soviets may be
underestimating the difficulties of shoring up the regime and may find
themselves under growing pressures to escalate the scope of their inter-
vention in the next few months. Moreover, the Soviets may now be more
inclined to gamble on a substantial intervention in Afghanistan because
of their perception of a downturn in relations with the US and the un-
certain prospects for Senate approval of the SALT treaty.
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
ALERT MEMORANDUM*
USSR-Afghanistan
The Soviets may have begun to give more serious con-
sideration to the spectrum of poss2hiZi ti.PS -Far dirAot
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mid- in Kabul ot General av ovs iy, Commander of the
Soviet Ground Forces, and hjah_1PvP1
other generals and coloneL~
av ovs ,y is probably
n e extent o e rea to the Afghan government
and preparing contingency plans which will outline the amount and nature
of Soviet military support neede t threat, both in its
current stage and if it worsens.
As opposition to the Afghan government has increased over the past
year, the Soviets have gradually augmented their military advisory
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Ithe Soviet presence has grown
the role of Soviet troops h increasingly changed from a mere advisory
one to active participation
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I the Soviets 25X1
have moved up to 3,600 troops into Kabul within the past two or three
weeks to protect Soviet facilities and personnel there.
by the Soviets would suggest increased secure y precautions and an
escalation of Soviet involvement beyond an advisory role. The Soviets
might consider such a move into Kabul to be prudent in view of the up-
risings that have occurred in Kabul this vear and the continuing possi-
bility of violence in the capital.
In expanding the level of their own involvement in Afghanistan,
there is a danger that the Soviets -- consciously or unconsciously --
will amplify their own stake in the ultimate outcome, making it in-
creasingly difficult for them to resist raising the level of their
participation still another notch should they feel it necessary
uc a movement OT Torces
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