POPULATION CONTROL MAP OF SOUTH VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T01719R000300270002-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 8, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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fter Vt9geenekivem
Intelligence Memorandum
POPULATION CONTROL MAP OF SOUTH VIETNAM
9em0146eiteit?iwil.
8 July 1972
No. 0791/72
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission Or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Exempt Ifom gcnin al
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( 11,(2).13/(4)
classified by 62-0001
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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Approved For Release 1999/09/grumikitiga80T01719R000300270002-1
SLITPITeSTRiewromounwiiiiiiaiii
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
8 July 1972
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
POPULATION CONTROL MAP OF SOUTH VIETNAM
1. Attached to this memorandum is a map depicting
those hamlets of South Vietnam which the best available
evidence indicates were wholly or largely under Commun-
ist control in June 1972. The map shows, accurately
though with some oversimplification, the limited popula-
tion control gains achieved by the Communists in the
first two months of their current offensive. It does
not show changes which are now occurring in the control
status of certain areas--specifically, it does not show
those changes resulting from the counteroffensive of
the GVN in northern MR 1. When we are in a position to
judge the effects of this counteroffensive on population
control, a new edition of the map can be prepared.
2. Any map of this type must oversimplify. Grada-
tions of partial control by either side cannot be
presented without unduly cluttering up the map. We have
chosen to depict only two main types of information.
?First, we have shown--on a base map of South Vietnam giv-
ing population densities--those Districts of the GVN
which are carried by MACV as being under Communist con-
trol as of 22 June 1972. Second, we have shown all
South Vietnamese hamlets which are rated "V" (under the
physical control of the Communists) or "E" (marginal or
ineffective GVN presence) by the Hamlet Evaluation
System. The latest HES data available in Washington
when the map was prepared had a cut-off date of 30 April.
Wreliminary HES data for May of this year have since
been received, and we have determined that the May data
would not change the categories illustrated on the map
significantly. HES data for June probably will not be
available for several weeks.)
3. We have not selected "V" and "E" rated hamlets
as a measurement of population control in order to cre-
ate yet another definition of what constitutes control.
We have used this definition because it yields a rela-
tively unambiguous picture of the populated areas held
by the Communists. "V" and "E" rated hamlets are those
in which the Communists are the only, or at least the
primary, source of administrative and/or military author-
ity. In addition, we have used this definition because
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it probably represents the minimum of population control which
the Communists might claim in any cease fire negotiations. (We,
of course, do not have to offer them even this much. At the
least, the US and/or GVN could initially claim the "E" hamlets
for the GVN side.)
The Statistics Behind the Map
4. On 29 February 1972, a month before the present North
Vietnamese offensive began, 86,000 individuals, or less than
one-half of one percent of the total South Vietnamese popula-
tion of 18,823,000, were living in "V" and "E" rated hamlets,
according to HES data. At the end of April, a month after the
offensive got underway, 755,000 people--still only four per-
cent of the population--were living in "V" and "E" hamlets. The
Communists captured the Quang Tri provincial capital on 3 May,
shortly after the cut-off date of our information. Now, in
early July, the question of who holds Quang Tri is again being
contested on the field of battle. The outcome of the battle,
however, will impact more on territorial than population con-
trol, since the bulk of Quang Tri Province's population fled
southward during the initial North Vietnamese Army advance.
(The same situation obtained at An Loc and in other areas of
heavy combat.) In areas of South Vietnam other than Quang
Tri, however, the status of population control is not in gen-
eral vastly different from what it was at the end of April,
although the Communists have made some further gains in areas
of northeastern MR 4 to which they have moved a number of the
troops previously engaged around An Loc.
5. Presented on the next pages is a table listing, for
each South Vietnamese province, the total population and that
portion of the population living in "V" and "E" hamlets, both
before the present North Vietnamese offensive (29 February
1972), and at the time when that offensive had almost reached
its furthest advance (30 April 1972). The inexactness and de-
ficiencies of some of the HES data do not require reiteration
here. The data are, in our opinion, of sufficient accuracy
to assist us in contingency planning for a possible cease fire.
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Province or
Autonomous
Municipality
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4.1PRIINIPOir
POPULATION OF SOUTH VIETNAM UNDER PREDOMINANT COMMUNIST CONTROL 1/
29 February 1972 30 April 1972
Total
Population
Percent of Percent of Percent of Pop-
Population Population ulation in "V"
in "E" in "V" and "E" Hamlets
Hamlets Hamlets Combined
Percent of
Total Population
Population in "E"
Hamlets
Percent of
Population
in "V"
Hamlets
Percent of Pop-
ulation in "V"
and "E" Hamlets
Combined
Quang Tri 317,000
0
0
0
95,000
0
100
100
Thua Thien 557,000
0
0
0
572,000
3.7
0
3.7
Quang Nam 565,000
.2
0
.2
565,000
1.1
0
1.1
Quang Tin 410,000
.2
0
.2
402,000
2.0
2.2
4.2
Quang Ngai 728,000
2.1
0
2.1
756,000
3.7
6.6
10.3
Hue 196,000
0
0
0
98,000
0
0
0
Danang 451,000
0
0
0
747,000
0
0
0
MR 1 3,226,000
.5
0
.5
3,234,000
1.9
4.8
6.7
Kontum 117,000
2.6
0
2.6
118,000
22.9
26.3
49.2
Binh Dinh 752,000
.4
.7
1.1
755,000
2.4
36.8
39.2
Pleiku 214,000
10.7
0
10.7
214,000
9.8
0
9.8
Phu Bon 69,000
1.4
0
1.4
69,000
1.4
0
1.4
Phu Yen 334,000
.3
0
.3
344,000
1.2
.3
1.5
Darlac 244,000
.4
0
.4
248,000
.4
0
.4
Khanh Hoa 252,000
0
0
0
249,000
0
.4
.4
Ninh Thuan 203,000
0
0
0
202,000
0
0
0
1/ Based on Hamlet Evaluation
System
(HES)
of
29
February
and 30
April
1972.
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1.11111PLM0
Province or
Autonomous
Municipality
29 February 1972
30
April 1972
0
0
Total
Population
Percent of
Population
in "E"
Hamlets
Percent. of
Population
in "V"
Hamlets
Percent of Pop-
ulation in "E" Total
and "V" Hamlets Population
Combined
Percent of
Population
in "E"
Hamlets
Percent of
Population
in "V"
Hamlets
Percent of PopID
ulation in "E"CL
and "V" Hamletsn
Combined
P3
Tuyen Duc
116,000
1.7
0
1.7
115,000
0
0
0
CD
CD
Quang Duc
39,000
2.6
0
2.6
40,000
0
0
0
(/)
Lam Dong
91,000
0
0
0
93,000
0
0
0
CD
Binh Thuan
290,000
0
0
0
294,000
0
0
0
CD
CD
CD
Nha Trang
195,000
0
0
0
195,000
0
0
0
0
CD
Qui Nhon
194,000
0
.5
.5
194,000
0
0
0
Co
Cam Rahn
111,000
0
0
0
111,000
0
0
0
Da Lat
87,000
0
0
0
87,000
0
0
0
0
MR 2
3,309,000
1.0
.2
1.2
3,328,000
2.1
9.3
11.5
Binh Tuy
74,000
1.4
0
1.4
75,000
1.3
0
1.3
13
CO
Long Khanh
167,000
0
0
0
167,000
0
0
CD
-4
Phuoc Long
47,000
0
0
0
44,000
0
2.3
2.3
CD
Binh Long
77,000
0
0
0
61,000
0
75.4
75.4
CD
Binh Duong
256,000
0
0
0
266,000
.7
.7
1.4
Tay Ninh
396,000
0
0
0
396,000
0
3.8
3.8
(A)
Hau Nghia
235,000
0
0
0
231,000
0
0
0
Bien Hoa
498,000
0
0
0
502,000
0
0
0
Phuoc Tuy
128,000
0
0
0
128,000
0
0
0
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Province or
Autonomous
Municipality
29 February 1972
30 April 1972
>
Total
Population
Percent of
Population
in "E"
Hamlets
Percent of
Population
in "V"
Hamlets
Percent of Pop-
ulation in "E"
and "V" Hamlets
Combined
Total
Population
Percent of
Population
In "E"
Hamlets
Percent of
Population
in "V"
Hamlets
-I
-
Percent of 1DopCO
,,
ulation in E,,
CD
and "V" Hamlets a.
Combined
-n
Long An
Gia Dinh
Vung Tau
Saigon
MR 3
Go Cong
Kien Tuong
Kien Phong
Dinh Tuong
Kien Hoa
Vinh Binh
Vinh Long
An Giang
Kien Giang
Chuong Thien
Phong Dinh
Ba Xuyen
An Xuyen
Bac Lieu
383,000
1,349,000
105,000
1,797,000
5,512,000
202,000
55,000
408,000
489,000
624,000
413,000
566,000
610,000
388,000
291,000
373,000
446,000
299,000
350,000
o
o
0
0
.03
0
0
0
0
2.2
.2
0
0
0
0
.3
0
3.3
0
o
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.03
0
0
0
0
2.2
.2
0
0
0
0
.3
0
3.3
0
-3 -
383,000
1,347,000
105,000
1,800,000
5,505,000
203,000
52,000
434,000
499,000
630,000
418,000
579,000
618,000
408,000
289,000
375,000
465,000
308,000
354,000
0
0
0
0
.05
0
0
0
0
4.9
.2
0
0
0
4.5
.3
0
2.3
0
0
o
0
o
1.2
o
o
.7
0
0
.2
0
0
0
6.9
0
0
3.6
0
o
o
o
o
1.25
o
o
.7
0
4.9
.4
0
0
o
11.4
.3
0
5.9
o
0
-%
X
CD
CD
0.1
0
CD
-%
CD
CD
CD
......
CD
a
Co
. .
0
>
i3
0
13
CO
CD
-4
CD
-.%
-.4
-%
CD
X
0
0
0
(h)
0
0
IV
-.4
0
0
0
IV
I
aiROWLINC.
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29 February 1972
30 April 1972
Province or
Autonomous Total
Municipality Population
Percent of
Population
in "E"
Hamlets
Percent of Percent of Pop-
Population ulation in "V"
in "V" and "E" Hamlets
Hamlets Combined
Total
Population
Percent of Percent of
Population Population
in "E" in "V"
Hamlets Hamlets
Chau Doc 578,000
0
0
0
581,000
0
0
Sa Dec 316,000
0
0
0
317,000
0
0
Rach Gia 104,000
0
0
0
104,000
0
0
My Tho 110,000
0
0
0
110,000
0
0
Can Tho 154,000
0
0
0
160,000
0
0
MR 4 6,777,000
.4
0
.4
6,905,000
.75
.52
Total South
Vietnam 18,823,000 2/
.42
.03
.46
18,972,000
2/
-
1.0
2.97
2/ HES data frequently show
small but
unexplained
differences in
the total
population
of
the
GVN
from
one month
-4-
CD
Percent of PoPa-
ulation in
and "E" Hamlet:4
Combined
PO
CD
0
ET
1:1.1
0 Cl)
CD
0 _&
CD
CD
CD
0
CoCD
0
1.27
3.97
to another.
1.-ZOOOLZ00?000N61.11.0.1.09dCIN-V10
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