CABLE TO(Sanitized) FROM THE DIRECTOR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00702A001000040008-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 16, 2002
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: December 16, 1978
• Content Type: CABLE

:Approved For Release 2002/05/07: CIA-RDP80T00702A001000040008-8
25X1A ONE ARTICLE FROM OER'S ECONO~+IC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW
ENDING 1S DECEMBER 1978. REQUEST ARTICLE BE PASSEG TO AMBASSADOR,
DCM, ECONOMIC SECTION AND OTHER WORKING LEVEL STATE OFFICERS..
USSR; IMPRDVED TRADE BALANCE (U)
1. THE USSR MANAGED TO HOLD DOWN ITS THIRD QUARTER
HARD CURRENCY TRADE DEFICIT TO 54D0 MILLION BY BOASTING
EXPORTS WHILE REDUCING BOTH GRAIN AND NONGRAIN IMPORTS. WE
EXP#CT THIS TREND TD CONTINUE, PUTTING TRADE ROUGHLY IN BALA-~CE
IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. THE 1978 HARD CURRENCY TRADE DEFICIT
WOULD THUS EQUaL THE ACCUMULATIVE THREE-QUARTER FIGURE OF
53.4 BILLION. THE DEFICIT FOR 19TH SHOULD BE LOWER BECAUSE
OF REDUCED IMPORTS AND HIGHER EXPORTS. (U) "
HARD CURRENCY IMPORTS,
2, SOVIET IMPORTS THROUGH SEPTEMBER AMOU!~TED PTO 512,6
BILLION-- A 20-PERCENT RISE OVER THE SAME PERIOD IN 1977, A
-JUMP IN GRAIN DELIVERIES AFTER THE DISAPPOINTING 1977 HARVEST
CAUSED MOST OF THE INCREASE, FOURTH QUARTER GRAIN IMPORTS
-ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SHARRLY, REFLECTING IN PARfi THIS YEAR'S
BUMPER CROP, NONGRAIN IMPORTS FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS
WERE UP SIiGHTLY, DATA FROM MAJOR WESTERN SUPPLIERS SHOW A
-SMALI INCREASE IN SALES OF MACHINERY TO THE USSR. LAST YEAR'S
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN SOVIET EQUIPMENT ORDERS. HOWEVER, POINTS
TO A bECLINE IN MACHINERY DELIVERIES- PERHAPS BEGINNING IN
fOURTH QUAF~TER' 1'78. tU)
'.SECRET
25X1 A
Approved For Release 2002/05/07: CIA-RDP80T00702A001000040008-8
 .Approved For Release 2002/05/07: CIA-RDP80T00702A001000040008-8
SECRET
25X1.
HARD CURRENCY EXPORTS.,
3. EXPORTS Irv THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 1978 WERE
59,u BILLION, 18 PERCENT MORE THAN IN THE FIRST ,THREE QUARTERS
OF 1977, EXCEPT FOR WEST GERMANY, SOVIET EXPORTS TO ITS MAJOR
WfSTERh TRADE PARTNERS GRE-~ LITTLE AND IN.SaME CASES DECLINED
SUBSTANTIALLY, DELIVERIES Tq THE UNITED KINGDOM, JAPAN, AND
THE UNITED STATES WERE OFF Ia PERCENT WHILE EXpoRTS TO THE
NETHERLANDS-FELL BY NEARLY 3a PERCENT, THE YEAR?T[??YEAR
INCREASE IN EXPORTS HAS BEEN SLOWEb 9Y STAGNATION IN THE VOLUME
OF OIL EXPORTSi OIL DELIVERIES IN 1978 ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A80UT THE SAME AS IN 1977 (1.1 MILLION B/D1, SQ~IET EXPORTS
TO IRAQ??TRADITIONALLY MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT--MORE THAN
DOUBLED, ACCOUNTING FOR MAST OF THE 65 PERCENT GAIN IN HARD
.CURRENCY SALES TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, EXPORTS TO ETHIOPIA,
LIBYAr AND NIGERIA ALSO INCREASED, FOURTH-QUARTER EXPORTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THiRD?QUARTER LEVELS BECAUSE OF
BOTH SECULAR TREND AND SEASONAL FACTORS. (U~
f INANCiNG ThtE DEFIEIT,
4, MO,SCOw HAS EASILY COVERED ITS 1978 HARD CURRENCY
TRADE DEFICiT, EARNINGS THROUGH SEPTEMBER FROM G-OLD
SALES??ESTIMATED AT MORE THAN 52 SIlLION??ALREAL?Y EXCEED
THOSE FOR ALL OF 1977 BY ROUGHLY 5500 MILLION, jN ADDITION,
DRAWINGS ON AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF LONG-TERM 6OVERNMENI?BACKED
CREDITS FOR EAUIPMENt PURCHASES, SUBSTANTIAL .SOVIET HOLDINGS
OF FOREIGN EXCHANGES AND ARMS SALES -HAVE LEFT THE SOVIETS
IN A STRONG PAYMENTS POSITION, (S)
OUTLOOK FOR 19,79,
?5, THE 1979 SOVIET NATIONAL ECONOMIC PLAN CALLS FDR
ENLARGING THE SHARE OF TRADE WITH OTHER SOCIALIST COUNTRIES,
AND IMPLIES A CONTINUED SLOWDOWN IN THE GROWTH OF .TRADE WITH
THE WEST. THE HARD CURRENCY TRADE DEFICIT NEXT YEAR iS
LIKELY TO BE~LOWER THAN IN 1978, MACHINERY IMPORTS SHOULD