ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 45
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 2004
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: August 31, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Poland: Payments Problems Persist Despite Shrinking Trade Deficit ...........
Despite success in trimming the trade deficit with the West, Warsaw for
the third consecutive year has to dig up $4 billion to cover its financial
gap.
Kenya: Economic Stake of Kenyatta Family ............................................. 14
The late President's inner circle occupies many of the key economic posts
and owns extensive agricultural and commercial properties.
USSR: Borrowing Beyond Needs for Orenburg Pipeline ............................ 20
Soviet credit arrangements for the pipeline have exceeded needs by
more than $1 billion, with Moscow apparently able to use the extra funds
for general balance-of-payments purposes.
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Cuba: Hustling Consumer Goods ............................................................
A loosely organized black market flourishes because of the chronic
shortage of consumer goods and the excess pesos in the hands of the
populace.
I Notes ................................................................................................... 29
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ER EIWR 78-035
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POLAND: PAYMENTS PROBLEMS PERSIST DESPITE SHRINKING TRADE DEFICIT
Poland's payments problems are worsening despite its success in cutting its trade
deficit with the West. For the third consecutive year, Warsaw has had to borrow some
$4 billion to cover its financial gap. Although most of the financing needed this year
already has been arranged, Poland's efforts to raise the remainder have been stalled, at
least temporarily. Even if Poland scrapes through this year, an even more serious
financial crunch in 1979 could well force either a major debt rescheduling or a painful
cutback in imports.
Poland: Financial Gap with Non-Communist Countries
Current account deficits,
Of which, interest expenditures
Debt amortization ....................
Financial gap
Drawings on medium- and long-
term credits ........, _ .....................
Increase in short-tR?. m debt and
changes in reserv, net S ........
Other financial itenc::
External debt yearend ....................
Exports, f.o.b........ .......................
Imports, f.o.b.' ...... ............. ...........
3,375
2,645
1,950
640
800
1,030
1,000
1,550
2,200
-4,375
-4,195
-4,150
3,200
3,695
1,175
500
10,200
12,800
14,750
4,442
4,882
5,400
7,375
7,057
6,700
' Projected.
Adjusted for net cry Bits extended by Poland to non-Communist countries.
May include some medium-term credits.
Trade with all non Communist countries.
? Repayments of prtncsipal on medium- and long-term debt and interest on all debts as a percentage of
exports to all non-C.)+,nmunist countries.
Warsaw has had to reduce imports from the West to cope with its rising balance-
of-payments problers. Folio?,ving a 4.3-percent decline in 1977, imports from the
West fell another 10 percent (luring the first half of this year, though for the year as a
whole a reduction of 5 percent seems more likely. Cutbacks in imports of machinery
and equipment and industrial materials have been particularly severe, slowing
production in some sectors. Regime spokesmen have voiced particular concern over
lagging production for export markets.
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Polish exports to the West increased at an annual rate of about 10 percent in the
first half of the year. The Poles should-with some effort-be able to sustain this rate
throughout: 1978, thereby matching last year's export rise. Thus, Poland's trade deficit
with the West is expected to fall to $1.3 billion, down considerably from the record
level of $2.9 billion in 1976 and the $2.2 billion of 1977.
... But Payment Obligations Rise
Despite the improvement in Poland's trade balance, debt service payments
continue to soar. At $3.2 billion in 1978, they are double the amount of 1976 and will
be equivalent to 60 percent of Polish exports to the West, compared with 37 percent in
1976. This rapid rise is causing concern among Poland's Western creditors-especially
in the private sector-and has led to a general reevaluation of their lending policies
toward Poland over the last six to nine months.
Rounding Up Credits
Financing requirements for 1978 are estimated at $4 billion, more than one-half
of which has already been arranged. We believe that Poland can count on $3.0 billion
to $3.5 billion in medium- and long-term credits tied to specific goods, most of which
will likely have some form of Western government backing. The Poles themselves
claim to have $3.5 billion in such credits that they can use this year:
? $1.7 billion in government-backed medium- and long-term credits to
finance imports of machinery and equipment.
? $800 million in government-backed medium-term credits-including $500
million in US CCC credits-to help finance agricultural imports, mainly
grain.
? $1.0 billion in medium-term credits-including government-backed cre-
dits--to finance imports of industrial goods, which generally have been
purchased on a cash or short-term credit basis.
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Assuming that the Poles are able to raise the $3.5 billion in medium- and long-
term credits linked to specific goods, we estimate their minimum additional borrowing
requirements for untied credits in 1978 at about $500 million. Borrowing beyond this
amount could be used to replenish Poland's foreign exchange reserves, which
apparently were drawn down by more than $200 million last year. Such a build-up
would help alleviate Poland's tight cash flow situation and perhaps even allow a
reduction in some relatively more expensive short-term borrowing. Borrowing above
the minimum required would also provide Poland with a welcome cushion in the
event that (a) some of the financing tied to imports fails to materialize or (b) the Poles
fail to push exports by the projected rate or to keep imports down. In any event,
Poland's efforts to raise upwards of $1 billion in financial syndications apparently will
drag on beyond the original summer timetable; late autumn appears to be the new
target date. If by that time Poland fails to secure such credits or if some of the credits
tied to imports are not obtained, Poland will have to (a) increase its short-term
borrowing, with obvious implications for next year, (b) draw down even more its
dwindling foreign exchange reserves, or (c) cut imports further.
Any increase in Poland's short-term debt will add to next year's financial gap,
which we now estimate at about $4.5 billion. Poland's debt service ratio in turn would
climb from 60 percent this year to 65 percent or more in 1979. Warsaw will
undoubtedly intensify its efforts to secure medium- or long-term credits tied to future
deliveries of copper or other commodities, while continuing to seek balance-of-
payments credits in the West. It will also continue to attempt to delay payments on its
outstanding debt, as in its request for ballooning payments on CCC credits. If all these
measures fail to provide the needed relief, Warsaw will have to ask for debt
rescheduling-which it has tried so hard to avoid on a multilateral basis-or accept
the consequences of additional import cuts.
KENYA: ECONOMIC STAKE OF KENYATTA FAMILY
The family and closest associates of the late President Jomo Kenyatta have
occupied many of the key posts in the Kenyan economy and have accumulated
extensive agricultural and commercial wealth during the 15-year Kenyatta rule. This
Kenyatta clique of Kikuyu tribal leaders currently forms the only group in likely
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position to mount a stiff challenge to acting president Daniel T, arap Moi-a member
of the minority Kalenjin tribal group-and his major supporter Attorney General
Charles Njonjo. The clique's efforts to outmaneuver Acting President Moi have so far
failed; their substantial investments in the Kenyan economy probably will deter them
from making a blatantly unconstitutional move. For the longer run, the desire of the
Moi-Njonjo group to increase its share of the economic pie and the growing public
disenchantment with the Kenyatta clan's economic monopoly could foment political
unrest. Mounting economic problems will reinforce pressures for a redivision of the
country's wealth.
The Royal Family Jewels
Kenyatta's extended family boasts extensive holdings of farms, plantations, hotels,
casinos, and insurance, shipping, and real estate companies. Besides occupying major
public office, several members of the family fill influential posts in large industrial
companies doing business in Kenya, including Lonrho (a British multinational active
in African agriculture) and the Ford Motor Company.
Family members and close associates control a large part of the land in the White
Highlands, the homeland of Kenyatta's tribe, the Kikuyu. At independence in 1963,
the British established a fund to help the Kenyan Government purchase farms from
European settlers in this area and redistribute them among land-hungry African
farmers. Although hundreds of African farmers were resettled through this scheme,
some of the funds allegedly were used by family members and by Kenyatta's ministers
to accumulate land. To protect the holdings of its members and the family, the
government blocked every parliamentary attempt to limit land ownership.
Kenyatta himself owned only about a half-dozen properties covering roughly
4,000 hectares, mainly farms in the Rift Valley and in the district of Kiambu, where
he was born. His fourth wife, Mama Ngina Kenyatta, however, owns at least 115,000
hectares including a 13,000-hectare ranch in the Kiambu district, two tea plantations
at Matu and Mangu, and three sisal farms near the Tanzanian border. She also has
considerable holdings in the resort areas around Mombasa and is involved in coffee
plantations and in the Kenyan ruby mines.
Other members of the late President's family have also prospered under his rule.
His son by his first wife, Peter Muigai Kenyatta, holds a seat in Parliament and is part
owner of Inchcape, a trading company that handles among other things the Ford
.Motor concession in Kenya. Peter Kenyatta and his sister Margaret, the former mayor
of Nairobi, also own large tracts of land. The late President's cousins include the
director of Lonrho in Kenya, the chairman of the company that built the Mombasa-to-
Nairobi gas pipeline, and Kenya's sole film distributor.
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Besides their other activities, Mama Ngina and Margaret Kenyatta are probably
the country's two largest charcoal and ivory traders-particularly lucrative businesses.
Although the export of these iitcins is banned because depletion of Kenya's forests and
wildlife threaten the underpinnings of the Kenyan economy, both women have been
able to obtain special licenses and are rumored to be involved in smuggling. For
instance, shortly after a ban on ivory exports (except for tusks from elephants dead of
natural causes or shot for control purposes) went into effect, the United Africa
Corporation, whose chairman. and chief stockholder is Margaret Kenyatta, received an
export license for 1,250 baby elephant tusks.
Family Assets Threatened?
Should Moi, with the aid of Njonjo and other supporters, consolidate his position
during the transition period and gain the presidency in his own right*-an event that
seems likely at the moment---the division of economic power could begin to shift.
Family ties to the transition government are tenuous. Although Njonjo and Finance
Minister Mwai Kibaki are Kikuyus, both for the time being are principal figures in the
Moi camp. Moi and Nionjo-both rumored to be involved in land and other business
dealings-could capitalize on the widespread dislike of Mama Ngina and on public
discontent over corruption to take over large shares of the family's holdings. Whether
attempted as a first stets toward widespread income redistribution or merely as a shift
of resources in favor of the new rulers, such a move would almost certainly provoke a
strong political response from t;he Kenyatta family.
Growing Popular Disgruntlement
The Kenyatta family's hold on the economy is increasingly resented. Public
criticism has been fanned by open parliamentary debate about scandals and high level
corruption which has been widely publicized by the country's free press. Students and
faculty at the University of Nairobi are particularly concerned about the uneven
distribution of Kenya's wealth and income. They and, increasingly, the man on the
street are very critical of the family's involvement in the charcoal and ivory trade,
which endangers vital national resources:
? The destruction of Kenyan forests and scrubland for charcoal has reduced
the habitat for wildlife and encouraged the encroaching desert, threatening
tourism and the livelihood of most Kenyans who are subsistence farmers. In
the last decade the country has lost 10 percent of its largest forest area, and
one-fourth of the land now is classed as arid. As a result, soil erosion has
* The constitution calls for a presidential election within 90 days of the president's death, In the absence of an
opposition party, the candidate of KANU (Kenya Africa National Union) will probably be proclaimed president.
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increased; at the mouth of the Galana River, silt has risen threefold in a
single year.
? Ivory smuggling is taking a heavy toll on Kenyan elephant herds, the main
tourist attraction. Figures for 1973, the last time a comprehensive survey was
made, indicate that poaching resulted in the slaughter of 10,000 to 25,000
elephants in that year. Recent reports indicate that in Tsavo National
Park-Kenya's largest park-the elephant herd has been reduced to only
2,000. Moreover, allowable Kenyan exports of high quality heavy ivory from
mature bull elephants is down, leading to speculation that animals over the
ages of 30-35 are almost extinct.
With the economy headed for balance-of-payments problems in the next several
years after more than a decade of 5-percent growth, austerity measures may be in
store, and popular discontent could grow. Kenya's payments accounts are under
pressure from several sources; Nairobi has already considered applying to the IMF for
assistance:
? Falling prices for coffee and tea-the country's major exports-are adding
to the current account deficit. In addition, heavy rains damaged this year's
coffee crop.
? Security worries due to Somali irridentism has put Kenya in the market for
increased arms purchases. A US survey team has recommended a 10-year
package to expand and modernize the Kenyan military at a cost of $560
million to $1,190 million. The first phase of the modernization is scheduled
to be completed by July 1979 and will cost Kenya $49 million. Almost all of
the program would have to be funded by Nairobi.
? Collapse of the East African Community last year adversely affected the
balance of payments. Kenya lost its major African trading partner, Tanzania,
which accounted for 10 percent of Kenyan exports, and tourism has suffered
from the closure of the Tanzanian border.
The new government may find itself forced to cut back on consumer imports and
on development programs to pay for increased military purchases and keep the
payments deficit manageable. A cut in consumer imports would add to shortages that
presently exist, especially for sugar and meat, besides aggravating inflation. If the
development effort slowed, unemployment-especially in the cities-would likely
rise, fanning the discontent of urban dwellers already cynical about the concentration
of wealth in a few hands. Urban unemployment currently is severe, especially among
university and secondary school graduates, half of whom cannot find work appropri-
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Credit arrangements, ostensibly for the Orenburg gas pipeline, have exceeded
requirements, netting the USSR more than $1 billion in untied long-term credits in
1976-78 and reducing Soviet reliance on commercial borrowing for other purposes.
The Soviets have received $2.5 billion from CEMA's International Investment Bank
(IIB) to finance purchases of pipe and equipment. Although the $2.5 billion is
sufficient to pay for all ( :=)renburg-related imports, the Soviets have also lined up more
than $1 billion in Western supplier credits to finance the same purchases. Moscow
apparently has been able to use these extra funds for general balance-of-payments
purposes.
Financing Orenburg
Five East European countries--Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hunga-
ry, and Poland-agreed in 1974 to supply labor, construction materials, and the
requisite hard currency for the Orenburg gas pipeline. Romania agreed only to
provide financing for a gas treatment plant at Orenburg. In return for their
investment the East European countries are to receive 15.5 billion cubic meters of gas
annually between 1980 acid 1990---2.8 billion for each of the five countries working on
the pipeline and 1.5 billion for Romania. Deliveries from Orenburg may begin later
this year; whether they will reach the target level by 1980 is still uncertain.
The IIB is the conduit for funds for the project. Through 1977, the IIB extended
$2.5 billion in hard currency to East European countries for the pipeline. The IIB's
borrowing for Orenburg; roughly equals its credit extensions; the bank has borrowed
$2.0 billion in four consortium loans since October 1975. Another $500 million loan is
now under syndication. The IIB has been able to borrow on the Eurodollar market at
terms better than the individual East :European countries could have obtained on their
own; the $500 million loan is for 10 years including a grace period of 5-1/z years with
an interest rate of 5/s percent over the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) for the
first 2-1/z years and a 3/4-percent spread thereafter.
Mechanics of Financing
In acquiring hard currency for the project the IIB borrows funds in the Euro-
dollar market and then relends the money to the East European investors in the
Orenburg project. They in turn pass the money to the USSR, which negotiates the
contracts and pays for the imports from the West.
The USSR has already purchased most of the Western equipment for the project.
West Germany, Japan, and Possibly Italy have supplied about 1.7 million tons of large
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diameter pipe worth about $1 billion. The Soviets have also bought $775 million of
equipment for 22 compressor stations from West German and Italian firms. A $195
million order for the gas desulfurization plant went to France. Several smaller orders
have boosted the hard currency cost of the pipeline to more than $2 billion.
Where Has All the Money Gone?
Although the sum borrowed by the IIB roughly equals the cost of imports from
the West, total borrowing for the project substantially exceeds the project's foreign
exchange costs, In addition to the IIB funds, the USSR has obtained supplier credits
from the West for most of the imports for the pipeline. French Government credits
financed the sale of the desulfurization plant-apparently the one that Romania was
obligated to finance. The $150 million order for five compressor stations from Italy
was financed by an Italian credit. Finally, almost all Soviet orders for large-diameter
pipe in the past several years have been financed under credits from West Germany,
Japan, and Italy.
The Soviet double dipping probably will provide at least $3.5 billion in Western
credits to finance somewhat more than $2 billion in hard currency imports. Even
allowing for higher cash imports than we can identify, the financial arrangements for
the Orenburg project apparently have made well over $1 billion in untied credits
available to the USSR in 1976-78.
Debt Repayment
The USSR will repay the East European hard currency investment with natural
gas; the East European countries will have to repay the IIB with hard currency so that
IIB can, in turn, repay the $2.5 billion in Eurodollar loans. Several of the East
European countries, already struggling with large hard currency debts, will be hard
pressed to meet this additional obligation. However, the natural gas they will receive
will reduce their need to spend hard currency for high-priced Western energy.
Soviet officials have stated that the price of the gas will be determined according
to the CEMA foreign trade price system, in which prices are calculated as the average
of world prices for the previous five years. The Soviet gas price to CEMA countries
was about $42 per thousand cubic meters in 1976 and is estimated to have increased to
$50 per thousand cubic meters in 1977. According to the CEMA pricing formula,
Soviet gas prices will continue to rise and may be about $60 by 1980. The 15.5 billion
cubic meters of gas scheduled for annual delivery during 1980-90 would be valued at
$930 million. Taking into account the 1978-79 shipments, the East European
investment would be repaid by 1983. Gas deliveries to Eastern Europe would continue
until 1990 under the agreement, but the terms of payment are unknown.
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Natural gas exports to Western Europe through the Orenburg line will yield the
USSR $750 million to $] billion annually in hard currency assuming prices of $60 and
$80 per thousand cubic meters, respectively. The capacity of the pipeline is sufficient
to allow for Soviet exports of up to 1.2.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually
after export commitments to Eastern Europe have been met.
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A loosely organized black market specializing in nondurable consumer goods
continues to flourish throughout Cuba, particularly in the Havana metropolitan area.
The market's vitality in the face of longstanding government attempts at suppression
reflects the continued shortage of most consumer items and the large amount of excess
purchasing power in the hands of the Cuban people. Although the black market
accounts for only a small share of Cuban economic activity, it constitutes a major
outlet for the populace's frustration with its austere lifestyle and is therefore a
stabilizing influence in Cuban society.
Market Organization
Cuban black market is a decentralized, loosely knit operation. Most of the consumer
goods in this market originate in capitalist countries and are smuggled into Cuba by
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Items on the black market consist mainly of small consumer items that can easily
be transported clandestinely and command a high enough price to make the risk
worthwhile, such as watches, sunglasses, scarves and other wearing apparel, jewelry,
and small radios. Trading in foodstuffs is largely confined to farm areas because of the
lower value and the difficulty of transporting food items. A major exception is coffee,
which is strictly rationed in "coffee-loving" Cuba. Little, if any, trading takes place in
large durable items, such as refrigerators and television sets, because householders
must show proof of ownership and origin.
Currency and Other Transactions
A considerable amount of currency also is traded on the black market. Given the
endemic surplus of purchasing power, Cuban black marketers can readily acquire
large amounts of domestic pesos. These are discounted to the diplomatic community-
particularly the Soviets-and sometimes to tourists at about four pesos to the US
dollar, about five times the official exchange rate. The foreign diplomats and tourists
thus multiply the purchasing power of their personal budgets while the black
marketers obtain scarce hard currency to pass on to their contacts in the Cuban and
Western merchant marine to procure Western consumer goods for resale on the black
market.
Other sub rosa activities of Cuban citizens to augment their meager official
earnings and brighten their austere lifestyle include a bustling "cottage industry"-
manufacture of goods in private homes-and the "bolita" (lottery). The cottage
industry specializes in small handicraft items such as jewelry and is frequently staffed
by dropouts from the labor force. lone such operation raided
by the police produced a hoard of pesos worth $150,000 and employed five persons
making $26 per day-well over twice the average wage in Cuba.
The bolita, widely known in pre-Castro days, has apparently retained its
popularity. The government has apparently made only a token attempt to eradicate
the bolita, recognizing not only its overwhelming popularity but also the extreme
difficulty of penetrating the small cell system by which the lottery is operated.
The potential for extremely large and immediate profits overcomes the fear of
government crackdowns and penalties. To judge from the wide price discrepancies,
the returns can be enormous for those willing to pit their imagination and ingenuity
against the system. For example, smuggled watches and scarves, which cost about $150
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Cuba: Official and Bliack Market Prices for Frequently Traded Items
Beans (per lb.) _...... ....... ............ __._ __..... _.......... 0.21 2.00
Beef (per lb.) ..... .._........ ........ ....... _. .... ....... .... ..... 0.43 5.00
Rice (per lb.) .................... ........................................ 0.20 0.80-1.00
Coffee (per 1b.) _............. .._......... .. .. ...._........... 0.96 16.00-20.00
Auto batteries ... .............. .............. _......... 10.00-12.00 80.00-100.00
Gasoline (per gal.) .......... _......... __ ...... 0.60 1.20
Shirt ..................... _.......... .... ... 5.50-6.00 25.00-30.00
Pants ...... ............... _..._..... ...... ....... .... ...._............... 15.00-30.00 40.00-75.00
Scarf ....... ....... ..._......._ ..... ......... ....... ... 12.00 25.00-35.00
Shoes ................_............. .................. ..................... 12.00-16.00 80.00-120.00
and $17 respectively at ockside in Havana, can be sold in eastern Cuba for $450 and
$34, respectively; the black marketer can in turn purchase coffee, which is grown
almost exclusively in thc_ eastern area, for about $5.50 per pound with subsequent
resale in Havana at up to $20 per pound-an overall profit of about 1,000 percent for
the 1,930-kilometer round trip.
The vitality of the black market and other forms of illegal activity stems from the
continued shortages of most consumer items, the large amounts of excess purchasing
power in the hands of the Cuban populace, and the inability of the government to
totally suppress illegal transactions. Cuba's "socialist command economy" falls far
short of meeting consurrt!r demand because of the particular priorities and inefficien-
cies characteristic of the ! Soviet-type economy and because of continued low world
sugar prices. Almost all wearing apparel and foodstuffs, including sugar, continue to
be strictly rationed. Th, major exceptions are a few luxury items, such as rum and
cigarettes. Moreover, w;thin the last two years the ration allotment of selected items
has been trimmed. At the same time aggregate personal income (measured in pesos)
has jumped 38 percent since 19713, reflecting higher salary scales and the accelerated
growth of the Cuban la''.h.aor force, particularly in the service sector. Pesos accordingly
have piled up in the hands of the rank-and-file Cuban. As for the attitude of the
leadership, we have no ~.!vidence of appreciable corruption among top-level govern-
ment officials although there are indications of isolated cases of midlevel involvement
and police protection at low levels.
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Iraq and India Consider Joining Intersputnik
An Iraqi Government delegation reportedh left for Moscow in late June to
discuss participation in Intersputnik, the Soviet-controlled international satellite
communications organization. The USSR has also suggested that India join Intersput-
nik. We do not know the Iraqi and Indian responses to these proposals. Any success in
attracting new members for Intersputnik would enhance Soviet technical prestige and
Soviet control over Bloc satellite communications and could generate greater voting
support for the Soviet position in international forums such as the upcoming World
Administrative Radio Conference.
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Assessment
Center
Economic Indicators
Weekly Review
31 August 1978
ER EI 78-035
31 August 1978
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
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Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
1. The Economic Indicators Weekly Review provides up-to-date information
on changes in the domestic and external economic activities of the major non-
Communist developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators
Weekly Review is updated from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that the
results are made available to the reader weeks-or sometimes months-before receipt
of official statistical publications. US data are provided by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are revised every
few months. The most recent date of publication of source notes is 16 February 1978.
Comments and queries regarding the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are
welcomed.
Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
BIG SIX FOREIGN COUNTRIES- COMPOSITE INDICATORS
Unemployment Rate
INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
1973 Appr2)l4or Release V.P9/07/28 : CIA1Fb$OT00702AT$
lincluding Japan, West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy. and Canada. A-2
8ooS-6 PR JUL OCT
1978
Sgrnllogarithmic Scale
 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
Percent, seasonally adjusted, annual rate
Big Six
? nited State
APR JUL OCT JAN APR
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Percent Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
MONTH Month 1970 Earlier Earlier2
Industrial
Production
Big Six
United States
I Consumer Prices
BIg Six
United States
MAY 78 -0.7 2.8 2.6 3.9
S1AY 78 0.5 3.7 5.0 10.2
JUN 78 0.6 9.2 6.2 7.2
JUN 78 0.9 6.7 7.4 10.7
LATEST MONTH
1 Year Earlier
? Months
Earlier
Unemployment Rate
alp Five
MAY 78 4.4
4.2
4.3
United States
MAY 78 6.1
7 1
6 r
1 UkTEST
MONTH
Ur ited Statet
MILLION
CUMULATIVE (MILLION US $)
US $ 1978
1977
Change
6,521 28,447
13,680
14,767
-1,597 - 1 6 3o8
-1 1.544
4..344
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2Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months, seasonally adjusted at annual rate.
A-3
 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
United States
Japan
West Germany
JAN APR JUL OCT JAApofbvdd FW RdIeaW 20'04/07Y28AN CII RQD'P80TON02ABOOB000M004-64PR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
A-4
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United Kingdom
110
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier1
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier1
United States
JUL 78
0.5
3.8
4.8
10.3
United Kingdom
JUtJ 78
1.4
0.6
4.1
3.6
Japan
JUN 78
-0.6
3.9
4.7
6.5
Italy_
JUN 78
-1.0
3.1
44
2.0
West Germany
JUN 78
0.9
1.9
0.0
-3.4
Canada
MAY 78
-0.8
2.7
2 4
1.0
France
MAY 78
-3.1
3.1
3.3
13.4
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1-Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
A-5
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
United States
West Germany
APR JUL OCT
1977
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
United Kingdom
A labor force survey based on new definitions of economic activity sharply raised the official estimate of Italian unemployment in first quarter 1977. Data for earlier periods thus are not comparable.
Italian data are not seasonally adjusted.
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
THOUSANDS OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
United States
JUL 78
6,193
6,719
5,983
Urdted Kingdom
JUL 78
1,371
1,402
1,387 . tt
Japan
MAY 78
1,270
1.140
1,160
ttatbf
11 78
1,455
1,432
1,520
West Germany
JUL 78
991
1,049
990
Canada
JUL 78
927
866
935
France
JUL 78
1,241
1,140
1,087
1r
1
;
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-78, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates. Beginning in
1977, Italian rates should be decreased by 50 percent to be roughly comparable to US rates.
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CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION Percent, seasonally adjusted,
annual rate'
5 Average Annual Rate of Inflation 1961-t?,72~'~
Japan
West Germany
15
10
5
France
1973 1974
"Three-month average compared &rpdtgrrlhs lease 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
U lJ~ ICS A-8
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United Kingdom
JAN
APR JUL OCT
JAN
APR JUL
OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
APR JUL OCT
JAN APR
JUL OCT
JAN APR JUL OCT
Percent
Change
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Percent
Change
f
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
from
Previous
1970 1 Year 3 Months
LATEST
rom
Previous
1970 1 Year 3 Months
2
MONTH
Month
Earlier Earlier2
MONTH
Month
Earlier Earlier
United States
JUN 78
0.9
6.7 7.4 10.7
1Un)jed Kingdom
JUL 78
1.1
13.1 C.8 6.2
Japan
JUN 78
0.3
9.8 3.5 6.1
1Ita.y
JUN 78
1.2
13.1 "? 2.2- 12.4
5.2 2.4 2.2
;Cqpada
JUL 78
1.2
7.fl 1.a~ 11.3
JUN 78
9.0 9.0 11.4
! 4.t?;
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A-9
 Approved For Release 200470712$
-
OO4
-
GNP'
A A
Constant Market Prices
Constant Prices
Average
Average
Anneal Growth Rate Since
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
-_
Latest
Fran Previous I year, Previous
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Quarter
Quarter 1971 Earlier Quarter
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Eager'
United States 78 11
1.8 3.2 4.0 7.4
United States
May 78
-0.9
3.1
1.9
5.5
Japan 78 1
2.4 5.5 5.7 10.0
Japan
Apr 78
4.0
9.9
4.3
24.8
West Germany 78 1
0.1 2.4 1.1 0.4
West Germany
May 78
-0.8
2.3
0
-5.3
France 78 I
1.8 4.1 1.4 7.4
France
Jan 78
9.9
0
1.0
10.5
United Kingdom 77 IV
-0.5 1.6 -1.1 -1.9
United Kingdom
Jul 78
1.7
1.4
5.4
9.0
Italy 78 I
2.0 1.9 -6.2 8.2
Italy
Mar 78
3.6
3.2
5.5
21.1
Canada 78 1
0.7 4.7 2.#I 2.7
Canada
Jun 78
1.4
4.1
4.5
2.2
' r adjusted.
seasonally adjusted.
Average for latest 3
months compared with average for previous 3 mon
ths.
FIXED INVESTMENT t
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING'
Nonresidential; constant
prices
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Average
Percent Change -
Annual Growth Pate Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Change -. -......_------
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
Earner '
Latest
from Previous 1 your Previous
Quarter
Quarter 1979 Earlier Quarter
United States
Jun 78
0.5
7.6
7.6
7.2
United States 78 II
3.6 :3 0 7.4 15.1
Japan
Apr 78
0.3
16.1
8.2
10.3
Japan 78 I
0.9 1.1 -0.4 3.6
West Germany
78 1
0.9
8.9
4.3
3.9
West Germany 78 I
-0.5 0,7 1.6 -2.1
France
77 IV
3.1
14.1
12.0
12.9
France 77 IV
0.8 4.0 4.7 3.3
United Kingdom
May 78
0.5
16.4
20.6
54.9
United Kingdom 78 I
1.3 1.6 9.7' 5.2
Italy
May 78
3.5
20.4
15.5
13.6
Italy 78 1
2.3 1.1-19.6 9.4
Canada
May 78
0.9
10.9
7.1
6.2
Canada 78 I
-3.7 4,8 -12.71 -14.1
' Hourly earnings (seasonally adjusted) far the united states, Japer, and Canada;
hourly wage
Seasonally adjusted.
rates for others. West German and French data refer
to the beg
inning of the quarter.
' Average for latest 3
months compared with that for previous
3 months.
MONEY MARKET RATES
Percent Rate of Interest
1 Year
3 Months
1 Month
Representative *ates
Latest Date
Earlier
Earlier
Earlier
United States
Commercicd paper
Aug 23 7.85
5.89
7.19
7.88
Japan
Call money
Aug 25 4.50
5.75
4.12
4.62
West Germany
Interbank Icons (3 mortl-s)
Aug 23 3.61
4.06
3.62
3.76
France
Call more)
Aug 25 7.00
8.25
7.88
7.25
United Kingdom Sterling irr?rrbank loans :3 months)
Aug 23 9.36
6.60
9.14
10.40
Canada
Finance pciper
Aug 23 8.90
7.47
8.13
8.27
Eurodollars
Three-mon^h deposits
Aug 23 8.66
6.36
8.02
8.50
o
BBB
pprove
r
25X6
 EXPORT PRIG pproved For Release 2004/07/28 :
us $
Cl&?W%J( J02A000800030004-6
National Currency
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rate Sims
Percent Change
Annual Growth Rate Sieve
Percent Change
latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Latest Iran Previous
Month Month 1970 Earlier
Earlier
United
States
May 78
0.4
9.4
5.0
8.3
United States
May 78
0.4
9.4
5.0
8.3
Japan
Jul 78
1.2
11.7
27.0
39.1
Japan
Jul 78
- 5.8
3.8
-4.3
-8.8
West
Germany
Jun 78
1.7
11.5
12.9
-4.0
West Germany
Jun 78
0.7
3.9
-0.1
4.9
France
Apr 78
3.4
12.1
17.9
36.2
France
Apr 78
0.9
9.4
8.9
X1.0
United
Kingdom
Jul 78
3.7
11.8
20.4
23.8
United Kingdom
Jul 78
0.5
15.1
9.4
11.3
Italy
Apr 78
-0.6
10.9
9.6
6.7
Italy
Apr 78
-0.6
15.4
5.7
1.6
Canada
May 78
1.8
8.4
0.3
3.8
Canada
May 78
-0.2
9.3
7.0 !
6.0
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Latest Month
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
I Year 3
End of Billon US $ Jun 1970 Earner
Months
Earlier
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
8
United States
Jun 78
18.9
14.5
19.2
19.2
United States
May 78
-0.3
12.8
5.4
6.
Japan
Jul 78
29.3
4.1
17.6
27.5
an
Ja
Jul 78
-6.6
5.8
-20.9
-22.7
p
-1
6
0
3
-5
9
-12
5
West Germany
Jun 78
40.7
8.8
34.3
42.2
West Germany
Jun 78
.
.
.
.
France
Apr 78
10.6
4.4
10.0
0.1
France
Apr 78
-2.2
9.3
0.2
-1.6
United Kingdom
May 78
17.3
2.8
10.0
2!.4
dom
United Kin
Jul 78
0.1
17.4
1.8
8.2
g
Italy
Jun 78
13.2
4.7
9.7
10.6
Ital
Apr 78
-0.7
18.9
4.7
-8.3
y
Canada
Jul 78
4.6
9.1
5.0
4.6
Canada
Apr 78
0
8.5
11.1
-5.3
BASIC BALANCE'
Current Account and Long-Term Capital Transactions
Cumulative (M ion US $
Latest
Period
Period Million US $ 1978 1977
Change
United States 4
78
I
-6,954
-6,954
-4 ' 158
-2,796
United
States
No longer published'
n
J
Jul
78
2
050
10
879
4
630
249
6
18
apa
,
,
,
,
Japan
Jul
78
650
6,231
3,513
2.7
rman
W
t G
Jul
78
- 1
700
015
2
406
1
609
;
966
e
y
es
,
,
,
West
Germany
Jun
78
265
2,801
-1,165
3.
France
78
I
0
0
-2
2
France
78
I
-1
-1
-2
1
United Kingdom
78
I
-803
-803
-896
94
United
Kingdom
78
I
- 326
-326
543
- 869
Italy
77
III
2,390
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Italy
77
111
2,520
N.A.
N.A.
FI.A.
Canada
78
I
- 1,273
- 1,273
-1,484
212
78
I
-668
-668
-584
84
s Converted to US domars at the current market rates of exchange.
I Seasonally adjusted.
Spot Rate
Converted to US dukes at the current market rates of enchange.
2 As recorrnMrsded by the Advisory Committee on the Presentation of salon of P
Statistics, the Deparfirent of Conrnerce no longer publishes a basic balanc,.
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES'
As of I8 Aug 78
As of 18 Aug 78
US $ 1 Year, 3 Months
Per Unit 19 Mar 73 Earlier Earlier 11 Aug 78
1 Year 3 Months
19 Mar 73 Earlier Earlier
11 .Aug 7e
Japan (yen)
0.0054
41.34
43.14
21.72
0.47
United States
-4.49
-10.10
-6.11
-0.13
West Germany
0.5038
42.27
17.30
6.82
-0.91
Japan
44.81
38.30
19.27
0.38
(Deutsche mark)
West Germany
30.28
3.95
-0.14
-1.24
France (franc)
0.2318
5.18
13.87
8.07
-0.34
France
-7.76
-0.09
1.16
-0.3S
United Kingdom
1.9850
-19.34
14.22
9.55
1.07
United Kingdom
-27.92
2.75
2.88
0.34
(pound sterling)
Italy
-42.58
- 6.52
-1.61
0.5$
Italy (lira)
0.0012
-31.92
6.45
5.06
0.42
Canada
-13.58
-9.17
-4.18
-0.34
Canada (dollar)
0.8783
-11.97
-5.44
-1.92
-0.22
Approved For Release 2004/07/28 :{
 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
Big Other Com-
World Seven OECD OPEC munist Other
UNITED STATES
1975 .......................... 107.65 46.94 16.25 10.77 3.37 29.82
1976 .......................... 115.01 51.30 17.68 12.57 3.64 29.44
1977 .......................... 120.17 53.92 18.53 14.02 2.72 30.98
1978 .........................
1st Qtr 30.94 13.65 4.60 3.76 1.00 7.93
Apr ..................... 12.06 5.40 1.68 1.38 0.42 3.17
JAPAN
1975 .......................... 55.73 16.56 6.07 8.42 5.16 15.87
1976 .......................... 67.32 22.61 8.59 9.27 4.93 17.84
1977 .......................... 81.11 28.02 9.73 12.03 5.32 26.01
1978
1st Qtr ................ 22.11 7.83 2.39 3.35 1.32 7.22
Apr ...................... 7.89 2.80 0.80 1.19 0.57 2.53
WEST GERMANY
1975 ......................... 91.70 ? 28.33 36.44 6.78 8.81 11.05
1976 ......................... 103.63 33.44 41.86 8.25 8.72 11.04
1977. _ ...................... 119.28 39.01 48.00 10.78 8.59 12.90
1978
1st Qtr ..... ....... ... 32.45 11.17 13.05 2.76 1.97 3.50
FRANCE
1975 ......................... 52.87 20.00 15.50 4.90 3.13 8.61
1976 ......................... 57.05 22.49 16.15 5.08 3.23 8.75
1.977............ _........ ... 65.00 25.90 18.19 5.97 3.00 11.94
1978
1st Qtr .............. 18.49 7.66 5.07 1.57 0.66 3.53
Apr .................... 6.74 2.82 1.90 0.56 0.28 1.18
UNITED KINGDOM
1975 ......................... 44.03 12.55 16.59 4.55 1.56 8.64
1976 ......................... 46.12 14.03 17.53 5.13 1.39 7.92
1977 ............... ._....... 57.44 16.99 22.56 6,78 1.63 9.48
1978
1st Qtr 16.86 5.09 6.27 2.03 0.55 2.92
Apr ..................... 5.75 1.73 2.19 0.74 0.18 0.91
ITALY
1975 .......................... 34.82 15.61 7.86 3.72 2.46 4.67
1976 .......................... 36.96 17.41 8.69 4.23 2.18 3.96
1977 ......................... 45.04 20.92 10.20 5.85 2.45 5.62
1978
1st Qtr ................ 10.80 5.25 2.37 1.37 0.48 1.33
CANADA
1975 .......................... 33.84 26.30 1.73 0.71 1.20 2.00
1976 .......................... 40.18 32.01 2.03 0.81 1.25 2.09
1977 .......................... 42.98 34.77 2.13 0.94 1.06 4.08
1978
1st Qtr ................ 10.75 8.78 0.55 0.23 0.22 0.97
Apr ...................... 4.20 3.44 0.16 0.08 0.07 0.45
s Source: International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade.
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80TOO702AO00800030004-6
Imports from (c.i.f.)
8ig Other Com-
World Seven OECD OPEC munist Other
UNITED STATES
1975 ..........................
103.42
49.81
8.83
18.70
0.98
25.08
1976 ..........................
129.57
60.39
9.75
27.17
1.16
31.09
1977 ..........................
156.70
70.48
11.08
35.45
1.22
38.47
1978
1st Qtr ................
43.14
20.39
3.51
8.15
0.47
10.62
Apr ......................
15.42
7.54
1.27
2.73
0.18
3.70
JAPAN
1975 ..........................
57.85
16.93
6.08
19.40
3.36
12.05
1976 ..........................
64.89
17.58
7.78
21.88
2.91
14.72
1977 ..........................
71.33
18.87
7.93
24.33
3.41
16.79
1978
1st Qtr ................
18.32
5.04
2.06
6.46
0.87
3.89
Apr ......................
6.28
1.64
0.74
2.01
0.36
1.53
WEST GERMANY
1975 ..........................
76.28
27.09
27.78
8.24
4.87
8.21
1976 ..........................
89.68
31.28
32.64
9.73
5.93
10.01
1977 ..........................
102.63
36.38
37.37
10.12
6.14
12.62
1978
1st Qtr ................
FRANCE
1975 ..........................
53.99
23.04
14.33
9.43
1.94
5.21
1976 ..........................
64.38
27.81
16.93
11.36
2.24
6.01
1977 ..........................
70.50
30.28
18.24
11.82
2.46
7.70
1978
1st Qtr ................
19.76
8.58
5.40
3.05
0.64
2.09
Apr ......................
6.79
3.02
1.84
1.00
0.23
0.70
UNITED KINGDOM
1975 ..........................
53.35
.18.47
18.52
6.91
1.68
7.67
1976 ..........................
55.56
19.66
18.81
7.29
2.08
7.65
1977 ..........................
63.29
24.02
21.34
6.31
2.40
9.22
1978
1st Qtr ................
18.87
7.44
6.68
1.80
0.55
2.40
Apr ......................
5.67
2.27
2.04
0.39
0.16
0.81
]ITALY
1975 ..........................
38.36
.17.32
6.75
7.85
2.09
4.34
1976 ..........................
43.42
19.35
8.04
8.12
2.65
5.24
1977 ..........................
47.56
20.80
8.67
9.03
2.80
6.26
1978
1st Qtr ................
CANADA
1975 ..........................
38.59
29.78
1.70
3.43
0.32
2.02
1976 ..........................
43.05
33.55
1.82
3.48
0.38
2.56
1977 ..........................
44.67
35.67
1.77
3.05
0.33
3.85
1978
1st Qtr ................
10.80
8.60
0.44
0.77
0.08
0.91
Apr ......................
4.61
3.84
0.18
0.03
0.19
0.37
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FOREIGN TRADE BILILION US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
2.0
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A-14
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United Kingdom
1.5
APR JUL OCT JAN
1975
APR JUL OCT
1976
LATEST
MONTH.
MILLION
US $ 1978
1977
CHANGE
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1978
197
CHANGE
JUN 78
12.126
66,363
60,257
10.1%
CJni't Kingdom
JUL 78
5,770
38,169
31.289
22.0%
13,723
82,731
71,782
15.3%
6,055
39,807
34,585
15.1%
Balance
-1,597
-16,368
-11,524
4,844
Balance
-284
-1,639
-3,306
1,668
JUL 78
7,700
54,344
45,157
20.3% ]
Italy
JUN 78 '
4.412
24,750
21.545
14.9%
1 f
5,556
37,967
35,555
6.8%
3,517
22,832
22,136
3.1%
Balance
2,144
16,377
9,602
6,775
Balance
895
1.918
-591
2,508
West Germany
JUN 78
12,337
67,369
56,673
: 18.9%
Canada
MAY 78 ,
3,621
18,983
17,435
8.9 ,
9,593
55,401
46,615
118.8%
3,401
17,447
16,713
4.4%
Balance
2,744
11,968
10,058
1,910
Balance
219
1,536
722
814
6,316
37,327
31.159
19.8%
JUN 78
a 91 _R
3718.2
32 828_
13 346
Balance
100
147
-1,670
1,817
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
FOREIGN TRADE PRICES IN US $1
West Germany
I%Wroved For I ale 2004/07/"?74-RDP80TGU YA000800030L-@
lExport and import plots are based on five-,Month weighted moving averages.
A-16
 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
United Kingdom
197&pproved F&W-41gase 2004/OtaiT9CIA-RDP80 f T772A0008000l6b-6t-6
A-17
 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
MONEY SUPPLY'
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION '
A er?ge
Awrape
Annual Growth Rate Since
M nuol Growth Rate
Since
Percent Charge
Percent Change
--
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Latest
from previous
1 Year
3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier '
Period
Period
1970 Earlier
Earlier'
Brazil
Mar 78
2.7
36.4
43.3
34.7
India
Mar 78
1.1
4,5 0.8
17.8
India
Feb 78
-0.6
13.7
16.0
20.4
South Korea
Jun 78
--1.2
22,5 20.1
26.5
Iran
Mar 78
9.9
29.3
22.5
51.7
Mexico
Apr 78
13.1
6.7 14.1
8
South Korea
May 78
1.3
31.2
30.7
23.7
Nigeria
78 I
6.8
11.C 0.s!
29.9
Mexico
May 78
3.9
20.8
33.0
24.9
Taiwan
Apr 78
1.5
15.3 17.4
2.0
Nigeria
Dec 77
-5.2
35.4
38.1
34.0
Taiwan
Mar 78
5.3
25.2
31.0
24.3
r Season y odiated.
s Average for latest
3 months compared with average fa iwevious 3 manH+
s
Thailand
Jon 78
2.7
13.2
13.7
21.5
15 eosonaly adgusted.
Average for latest
3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
CONSUMER
PRICES
WHOLESALE
PRICES
Averogs
Annual Growth R
ate Since
Average
Percent Change
Annual Growth
Rate Since
latest
from Previous
1 year
Percent Change
Month
Manth
1970
Earlier
Latest
from previous
1 year
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Brazil
Jun 78
4.1
28.3
38.0
India
Mar 78
0.3
7.5
2.9
Brazil
May 78
3.4
28.4
34.5
Iran
May 78
-0.4
12.4
12.0
India
May 78
0.6
8.0
-2.8
South Korea
Jul 78
1.4
14.6
14.7
Iran
May 78
0.4
11.0
10.9
Mexico
Jun 78
1.4
15.0
17.3
South Korea
Jul 78
0.4
15.8
11.7
Nigeria
Dec 77
3.2
16.6
31.0
Mexico
Jun 78
1.3
16.6
16.8
Taiwan
Apr 78
1.8
10.1
7.6
Taiwan
Mar 78
1.1
8.2
1.2
Thailand
Apr 78
1.0
8.6
8.8
Thailand
Jan 78
-0.2
9.5
6.4
EXPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
us $
Average
Minion US $
Annual Growth R
ate Since
Latest Month
---
Percent Chan
ge __--
--_
1 Year
3 Months
Latest
from Previous
I year
End of
Mllion US $ J
un 1970
Earlier
Earlier
Month
Month
1970
Eager
Brazil
Feb 78
6,733
1,013
5,878
5,994
Brazil
Feb 78
0.4
14.0
1.5
India
Apr 78
6,064
1,006
4,134
5,411
India
Mar 77
-0.9
9.6
17.9
Iran
Jun 78
12,068
208
11,025
12,483
Iran
Jun 78
0
30.8
0
South Korea
May 78
4,101
602
3,519
4,376
South Korea
78-1
0.7
8.7
7.7
Mexico
Mar 78
1,766
695
1,422
1,723
Nigeria
May 76
-0.1
27.3
12.3
Nigeria
Jun 78
2,387
148
4,663
3,906
Taiwan
Mar 78
-0.7
11.2
3.8
Taiwan
Mar 78
1,433
531
1,349
1,447
Thailand
Dec 76
2.0
13.3
13.1
Thailand
Jun 78
2,161
978
2,017
2,161
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
Latest 3 Months
Percent Change from
3 Months 1 Year - --- -
Latest Period Ealier' Earlier 1978 1977 Charge
May
78
Exports
84.8
-3.7
4,743
4,979
-4.7%
May
78
Imports
26.6
1.4
5,110
4,939
3.5%
May
78
Balance
-367
40
-407
Feb
78
Exports
4.0
12.3
912
917
-0.4%
Feb
78
Imports
-39.6
- 0.2
845
916
-7.7%
Feb
78
Balance
67
1
66
Iran
Apr 78
Exports
-34.0
- 8.2
7,615
8,012
-4.9%
Mar 78
Imports
105.8
14.2
3,694
3,235
14.2%
Mar
78
Balance
1,991
2,795
-804
South
Korea
May
78
Exports
14.2
29.3
4,651
3,630
28.1%
May
78
Imports
64.3
25.1
4,994
3,905
27.9%
May
78
Balance
-343
-275
- 68
Mexico
May
78
Exports
-2.2
6.5
2,037
1,773
14.9%
May
78
Imports
11.6
25.7
2,340
1,868
25.3%
May
78
Balance
-304
- 95
-209
Nigeria
Apr
78
Exports
-55.4
-29.9
1,143
1,597
- 28.4%
Aug
77
Imports
56.1
80.1
2,535
1,640
54.6%
Aug
77
Balance
716
979
-263
Taiwan
Apr
78
Exports
-276
32.3
3,365
2,543
32.3%
Apr
78
Imports
- 14.5
20.4
2,869
2,338
22.7%
Apr
78
Balance
496
205
291
Thailand
Apr
78
Exports 27.0
3.2
1,277
1,221
4.6%
Apr
78
Imports -6.5
14.3
1,449
1,251
15.8%
Apr
78
Balance
- 172
- 30
-141
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
AGRICULTURAL PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
23 AUG
3.19
16 AUG
3.12
JUL 78
3.13
5.0
AUG 77
2.30
%-3.10
2.5 100
1-'23AUG 11
0
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4% Brokens.
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Texas
23 AUG 7.00
16 AUG 7.21
JUL 78 6.45
AUG 77 6.93
300
0.6102 1,500
16 AUG 140.00
JUL 78 135.80
AUG 77 199.40
TEA
London Auction
1-23 AUG II
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 0
$ PER METRIC TON SUGAR
.... ~~ 4 PER POUND
COFFEE
2,000 Other Milds Arabicas, ex-dock New York
23 AUG 0.6127
16 AUG D.6113
JUL 78 0.5914
AUG 77 0.2330
1-23 AUG
0
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
150
500
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
23 AUG 6.62
16 AUG 6.43
JUL 78 6.54
10, AUG 77 5.66
$ PER METRIC TON
SOYBEAN MEAL
$ PER TON
500 400
44 Percent Bulk, f.o.b. Decatur
1-23 AUG 1l
0
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
so- 1974 ?1975
0 PER POUND $ PER METRIC TON 500
.5;
SOYBEAN OIL
Crude, Tank Cars, f.o.b. Decatur 1,000
Crude, Bulk, c.i.f. US Ports
23 AUG 0.2900
16 AUG 0.2900
23 AUG 0.2744
16 AUG 0.2602
JUL 78 0.2577
AUG 77 0.2113
1-23 AUG 11
1977 1978
AUSTRALIA
Boneless Beef,
f.o.b., New York
UNITED STATES
Wholesale Steer Beef,
Midwest Markets
11 AUG
92.00
19 AUG
78.12
4 AUG
91.00
12 AUG
80.25
JUL 78
88.63
JUL 78
85.10
AUG 77
63.01
AUG 77
62.49
9i.15
1-11 AUG
23 AUG 167.50
16 AUG 160.00
JUL 78 171.18
AUG 77 140.58
1-23 AUG 3I
1976 1977 1978
1-15 AUG
1977 1978
577109 8-78CIA
NOTE: The food index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighte4 by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized couMnes.
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800030004-6
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
140 C PER POUND
23 AUG
16 AUG
JUL 78
AUG 77
$ PER M'_TRIC TON
LEAD
C PER POUND
$ PER METRIC TON
45
1,000
LME US
3,000
LME
Us
65.6
8.6
23 AUG
29.3
33.0
66.3
8.6
16 AUG
29.9
33.0
60.6
.5.6
JUL 78
26.4
31.0
52.7
3.9
2,500
35
AUG 77
24.9
31.0
40 1974 1975 1976 1977 1.978
ZINC
100 C PER POUND
250
LME US
23 AUG 589.0 644.7
16 AUG 607.1 659.2
JUL 78 562.2 607.0
AUG 77 511.8 556.4
$ PER METRIC TON
838.8 a 14,000
1-23 AUG, 1-23 AUG AUG11 4,000
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 0 150 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
us
PLATINUM 266.0
$ PER METRIC TON150 250 $ PER TROY OUNCE
22 AUG
"8.5
16 AUG
?3.#
!125
JUL 78
8.6
AUG 77
%2.3
100
V .-78.7
75
25
25
1-22 AUG (I
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 0
MP USD
23 AUG . 240.0
266.2
225
16 AUG 240.0
271.8
JUL 78 237.5
246.8
AUG 77 167.0
147.9
200
175
Major Producer (MP)
125
100
1-23 AUG AUG IL.,.,.
1974
1975 1976 1977 1978
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A-22
1-23 AUG AUG 11
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ALUMINUM
Major US Producer
! per pound
55.00
53.00
53.00
47.05
US STEEL
Composite
$ per long ton
419.31
387.54
357.08
327.00
IRON ORE
Non-Bessemer Old Range
$ per long ton
21.43
21.43
21.43
20.05
CHROME ORE
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
$ per metric ton
NA
NA
150.00
150.00
CHROME ORE
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
$ per long ton
56.00
56.00
58.50
42.?
FERROCHROME
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
t per pound
42.00
41.00
42.39
44.56
NICKEL
Composite US Producer
$ per pound
2.07
2.06
2.41
2.20
MANGANESE ORE
48 Percent Mn
$ per long ton
67.20
72.24
72.00
72.01D
TUNGSTEN ORE
Contained Metal
$ per metric ton
1
7,528.00
19,048.00
21,111.00
5,325.00
MERCURY
New York
$ per 76 pound flask
163.00
162.32
116.30
110.011)
SILVER
LME Cash
it per troy ounce
560.70
496.44
447.09
425.51
GOLD
London Afternoon Fixing Price $ per troy ounce
212.64
178.16
144.95
109.65
RUBBER
60 PER POUND
LUMBER INDEX6
160 -
1-23 AUG AUG II
1976 1977 1978
1-18 'AUG
1-Approximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
2Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the U S.
3As of 1 Dec 75. US tin price quoted is "Tin NY lb composite."
40uoted on New York market.
5S-type styrene, US export price.
6 This index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction casts.
1-15 AUG 11
1976 1977 1978
60 Vi .
1974 1975
NOTE: The industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter International trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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