SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: FAST GROWING ARMS MARKET

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00702A000500030011-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 17, 2004
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: October 1, 1978
• Content Type: IS

ApprovecdFor Release 2006/10/19: CIA-RDP80T00702AO0050003001,1-0 A,
Foreign
Assessment
(enter
Sub-Saharan Africa:
Fast Growing Arms Market
Secret
ER 78-10629
October 1978
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STATOTHR
STATOTHR
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 Approved For Release 2006/10/19: CIA-RDP80T00702AO00500030011-0
Sub-Saharan Africa:
Fast Growing Arms Market
Central Intelligence Agency
National Foreign Assessment Center
Key Judgments
The Angolan civil war in 1975-in which the rival factions drew support
from various Communist and non-Communist nations-touched off a rapid
escalation of foreign arms transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa.* Arms sales
topped $3 billion in 1976-77, more than the entire amount committed to the
region in the previous 16 years. Deliveries rose in parallel fashion, and both
sales and deliveries continued strong in the first eight months of 1978.
Sales
Deliveries
1960-72 ......
1,480
1,260
1973 .........
320
180
1974 .........
550
250
1975 ..........
515
410
1976 .........
1,465
835
1977 .........
1,605
1,050
Despite this upsurge, Black Africa accounted for less than 10 percent of
the $40 billion in total military sales to the Third World in 1976-77.
Communist military sales to the Sub-Sahara have overtaken Western
sales in the past several years and in 1977 made up two-thirds of the total.
The USSR alone supplied almost one-half the military goods sold and
delivered to the area in the last two years. In contrast, the single largest
Western supplier, the United States, sold about 10 percent of the total in
1976-77, while France accounted for 8 percent of the market and West
Germany 7 percent.
In every major combat weapons category save naval vessels and utility
aircraft the USSR has been delivering more pieces of equipment than all
Western suppliers combined. The Soviets also lead in the introduction of
relatively advanced weapon systems into the area.
* Sub-Saharan Africa, or the Sub-Sahara, or Black Africa, is used in this report to include all
continental African countries except South Africa, Namibia, and the nations of Arab North Africa
(Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt). Also included are the islands of Madagascar, Mauritius,
Seychelles, Comoros, Sao Tome and Principe, and the Cape Verde Islands.
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The bulk of foreign-supplied arms have gone to 10 Sub-Saharan nations,
which together made up 85 percent of regional purchases in 1976-77. Of
these, Angola and Ethiopia have taken more than one-half of all hardware
delivered, mostly from the USSR. Insurgent groups aligned against Rhodesia
have also benefited from the renewed Soviet interest in Africa. Moscow
transferred, in relatively smooth fashion, an estimated one-half billion dollars
worth of armored vehicles, artillery, jet fighters, and other equipment into
Ethiopia between April 1977 and May 1978. In return, the USSR gained
Ethiopian permission to develop a naval support facility for exclusive Soviet
use.
The near-term trend in arms sales and deliveries to Sub-Saharan Africa
will be largely determined by the number and scope of military clashes in the
area. In the absence of major new military action, we would expect arms sales
to the area to recede from their recent peak, with the USSR retaining its new
position as the ranking supplier. A sizable backlog of orders, including
purchases already made in 1978, will sustain a considerable flow of arms into
Ethiopia for the next several years. The continuing civil war in Angola and
military buildups in Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zambia suggest a steady
flow of Soviet weapons and equipment into these countries for the next year
or so. At the same time, Western suppliers should see moderately increased
sales as a result of the availability of recent additional Saudi financial
assistance, particularly to Somalia and Sudan. The perceptible rise in the
lethality of weapons introduced into the Sub-Sahara almost certainly will
continue, with the Soviets taking the lead in supplying new, more deadly
weapons.
ii
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