A PERSPECTIVE ON THE ANGOLAN LEADERSHIP

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00634A000400010061-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 61
• Publication Date: November 15, 1978
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT CENTER
Angolan President Agostinho Neto appears to be firmly
in control of his party and the government despite con-
tinuing sporadic signs of popular unrest and discontent
among blacks in the cabinet. In recent months, Neto has
increasingly consolidated power in his own hands at the
expense of other government officials. It now appears that
all important decisions are made by him or by a small number
of trusted advisers.
An indication of Neto's current political strength is the
apparent lack of internal opposition to his recent diplomatic initia-
tives, including the campaign to improve relations with the West.
This memorandum was prepared by the African Division of the office
of Regional and Political Analysis and coordinated with the Directorate
of O erations. Questions and comments may be addressed to the author,
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Those members of the party and the government who in the
past had strongly opposed the return of Portuguese
technicians and who generally advocated a more radical
"black-power", and pro-Soviet line have maintained a
low profile in recent months,
fffe- o -pp 1 i uppor o Keel em in check.
Nevertheless, this group probably enjoys considerable
support at the grass-roots level of the party and the
government and probably would quickly assert itself if
Neto were to leave office.
The most immediate consequence of Neto's departure
would be a significant diminution of mulatto influence
in party and government circles. The younger blacks,
particularly those in the military, strongly resent the
disproportionate influence wielded by the mulattoes
and probably would push for their removal if Neto was
no longer in a position to protect them. Prime Minister
Lopo do Nascimento, a mulatto, lacks a strong independent
power base and recently has been rumored to be losing
influence. The other high-ranking mulattoes--party
theoretician Lucio Lara and Second Deputy Prime Minister
Carlos Rocha--probably are in a stronger position, but
still vulnerable because of their race. Defense Secretar
Iko Carreira a mulatto
repor e y expec s
e may nave to ee the country. Many other mulattoes
would probably join him if it appeared a major power
struggle was about to break out in the post-Neto period.
Although the mulattoes might press for a collegial
form of government to include them and other high-ranking
blacks, such a solution probably would only be temporary.
If a power struggle resulted, the type of regime most
likely to emerge would be strongly nationalistic, more
Marxist-Leninist, and directed if not controlled by the
military. While the emergence of such a regime would bode
ill for Portuguese interests in Angola, given Angola's
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economic and security problems, it probably would not lead
to a major reversal in current foreign policy initiatives.
Prime candidates to lead such a government would be
Pascoal Luvualu, the black foreign affairs spokesman for the
party who has gained considerable influence and exposure
over the past year, and Rodrique Joao Lopes, known as "Ludy",
the black director of the internal security service. Although
Joao Luis Neto, "Xieto", a black and the deputy defense
minister, has long been considered a leading candidate
the president
Others who would probably be jockeying for top
positions include the extremely competent black provincial
commissioner for Huambo, Pedro Maria Tonha, "Pedale"; black
minister of education Ambrosio Lukoky; and Enriques de
Carvalho Santos, "Onambwe", a mulatto who has been closely
associated with the Cubans but may now be somewhat in their
disfavor.
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