US POSITION PAPER ON(Classified) 1901/62: COMMUNIST CHINESE AIR CAPABILITY AGAINST INDIA (DATED 4 DECEMBER 1962)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80S01499R000100050056-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 24, 1998
• Sequence Number: 56
• Publication Date: December 17, 1962
• Content Type: MF

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
17 December 1962
MEMORANDUM FOR THE UNITED STATES IN1ELLIGENCE BOARD
SUBJECT: US Position Paper on M 190162: COT JNI:ST 25X1X7
CH1 'SE AID' CAPAB]1ITY AGs :,NST TIGDIA
(Dated 4 December 1962)
1. The attached draft Position Paper. has been approved
by the Board of National Estimates pursuant to a consideration
of it by the USIB representatives.
2. This paper has been placed on the agendaa. of the USIB
meeting scheduled for 1030. Wceea~ 19 December.
Acting Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
DI.STR1zBu ION A MILITARY
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassif
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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
17 December 1962
DRAFT 25X1C8a
UNITED STATES INTET-IMENCE BOARD CCMME TS ON - 1901/G2,
"Communist Chinese Air Capability Against India," dated 4 December
1962."
1. The significant points of differeune and a ;.:'eeme 5X1 C:8a n-
sidered below in the order of their appearance in the
study.
25X1 C8a
2. (, par.so 5). We are in general agreement with the
judgments made in this paragraph but would suggest the following
wording for it:
"We believe that as a result of the discord In Sino-Soviet
relations the Soviet Union has not supplied any modern offensive
aircraft to China in the past two years, although she has been
willing to make them available to other countries such as Iraq,
Indonesia., and the UAR. We consider that as long as the serious
rift in relations remains the Soviet Union will be reluctant to
supply modern aircraft to China and China will be faced with growing
obsolescence in her Air Forces. Even in the unlikely event of her
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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economic problems and ideological differences being resolved in
the near future,, it would be several years before China could sig-
nificantly improve her air capability,, unless combat aircraft were
directly supplied by the USSR,"
25X1C8a 25X1C8a
f
t
8
f
!
ti
es o
3. pare?
). A comparison o
US and
s
ma
CCAF and CCNAF combined strength follows:
25X1 C8b
-
L'S
CCAF/CCNAF TOTAL
2,850
2,,650
Jet Fighters
1,980
1,920
Jet Light Bombers
390
325
Piston Light Bombers
125
105
Special Ground Attack
120
40 prop
and 60 jet
Piston Medium Bombers
15
15
We have firm evidence of two TV-16's (BADGERS). What evidence we
have suggest that these aircraft are not operational, but we cannot
be certain. They were probably delivered to the Chinese by the USSR
prior to mid-1960? We estimate the strength of the transport force
to be approximately 195 piston short-range aircraft,
25X1 C8a
4. para. 9), We believe that the Chinese have approxi-
mately 260 airfields, including 135 which are suitable for jet fighters
or jet light bombers, and 30 which can be used for met medium bombers.
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25X1 C8a
5. pa*a. ii). Not all Gh nese airfields usable for
light bomber or fighter action against India are at very high al-
titudes,. The airfields most likely to be used for operations
against the Ladakh-Jammu-Kashwir area, are Hotien, at 3,000 feet
elevation with a crushed rock runway, and Soche, at 4,400 feet
elevation with a sod or natural surface. In regard to radius of
action and/or bomb load for jets operating at airfields of high
elevation, we believe that a number of operational factors must be
considered. Air temperature as well as runway length is important
in estimating required take-off distances. We do not believe that
reduction in radius of action and/or bomb load would arbitrarily be
required in all instances, At Lhasa, at 14,,000 feet elevation and
00 centigrade, we believe that a BEAGLE could take off with a full
4,400 pound load in approximately one-half of the 11,000 feet that
25X1 C8b
25X1 C8a
6. ara,& 13). We would suggest the following wording
for paragraph 13: "The medium bomber force possesses a very limited
strategic bombing capability due to its small size and performance.
The BULL, a piston-engined bomber dating from 1948, would be highly
vulnerable to Jet interception,"
* See Table attached to Appendix B for BEAGLE take-off and landing
weights,
-_-T
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25X1 C8a
7. After paragraph 13, we would suggest the addition
of a paragraph on deployment to read as follows: "At present virtu-
ally all of the Chinese medium bomber force is located in the Sian
area, none of it being present in Tibet or Sinkiang. In times past
PATS, BEAGLES, and BULLS have operated in Tibet from Kaerhmu. The
BAT, with a 4+0 nautical mile radius and normal bomb load of 3,300
pounds, would be the most reliable aircraft for tactical strikes be-
cause of its slower take-off speed and greater maneuverability at low
levels. The BEAGLE could bomb targets in northern India from bases
in Szechuan (Chengtu), Tibet, Yunnan, and possibly Sinkiang. The
BULL and the BADGER, with a combat radius of over 1,600 miles, could
cover most of India from their base in Sian,"
25X1 C8a
8. (M, para. i4+). China's air defense capabilities in
the Himalayan area are limited due to insufficient radar coverage
and the apparent absence of any jet fighter aircraft, The nearest
jet fighter unit is probably located at Chengtu, but units could
be redeployed to Tibet and Sinkiang. We believe that the Chinese
have a limited early warning capability in the Ladakh area, but are
not equipped to handle tactical intercept air operations from bases
in Tibet, Within China Proper we have firm evidence of a small num-
ber of surface-to-air missile sites at Peiping, San-Yuan (near Sian),
and the Shuang-cheng-tzu missile test facility.
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4 - f
25X1 C8a
9. para. 17,) We would suggest deletion of the
first sentence of this paragraph.
25X1 C8a
100 (_paare. We would suggest the following
language for the first sentence: "The Chinese Com rists would
use transport aircraft in airborne operations; however, extensive
airborne operations are unlikely if they would cau.o a major dis-
ruption of essential air transport operations,"
25X1 C8a
11. jjjnjSqt19.) We do not believe that China's ability
to wage an air campa:lg% against India would be seriously handicapped
by the need to maintain her present air posture, We would suggest
deletion of the second sentence. In regard to the third sentence,
our evidence is inadequate to allow a precise estimate, but we be-
lieve that at most 290 tactical aircraft could be committed to
operations against India including 180 jet fighters, 50 jet light
bombers, and 60 piston light bombers.
25X1 C8a
12. 1, para. 20.) We would suggest deletion of the
25X1 C8a
first sentenc. We agree with the that the key to air opera-
tions would be the amount of logistic support, particularly POL, which
could be provided to forward bases. However, the first half of the
second sentence appears to contradict the opening sentence. Our
-5 -
TM"
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logistics planning has been based on the premise that the aircraft
listed in paragraph 11 could operate from 6 airfields, 4 of which
are in the critical logistics zone of western Sinkiang and southern
Tibet. The Chinese could supply the latter airfields with a maximum
of 500 short tons per day.
25X1 C8a
13? (-, para. 21) We have little evidcDce of stock piling
of air supplies in the T:Thetan area, We believe ,het if the Chinese
exerted a maximum effort., they might be able to d,,1i.uur a total of
2,240 short tons daily to the Tibetan area., inc].ud:thg 2.,000 tons by
road and 240 tons by air. (assuming the use of 175 civil a:od military
aircraft). They could divert some 500 short tons of this potential
maximum to support air operations against India. However, it is not
likely that the Chinese would choose to make such c;o. all out effort.
Currently some 12 transports (8 at Hotien and 4 at Lhasa) are prob-
ably operating in the area. We believe that up to 50 small transport
aircraft could be diverted to support operations against India without
imposing unacceptable restrictions or the overall Chinese air transport
system. Under optimum cnaditions, these 50 transports could supply
some 60 tons daily for a sustained period from railheads in China
proper. Currently., the total tonnage delivered into Tibet is esti-
mated to be 500 to 700 tons daily, virtually all by road.
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25X1 C8a
14. 05__rara. 23 . We do not agree with the number of
sorties listed. We believe that the logistic requirements for
carrying out the su ested operations are somewhat lower than those
25X1 Ca
given by the - Thus,, jet light bomber sorties would probably
require under three short tons per flying hour and jet fighter sorties
would require one and one-half short tons per flying hour? We esti-
mate that piston light bomber sorties would require about one short
ton per flying hour and jet ground attack sorties would require
slightly more than one and one-half short tons per flying hour.
25X1 C8a
15. (~ para. 25). Of all Tibetan airfields., we believe
that the Chinese are most likely to use Nagchhu Dzong for Jet light
bomber operations.
25X1C8a 25X1C8a
16, ~,, para* 26). Contrary to the _ view, we
believe that BEAGLES could operate against Delhi as well as Calcutta,,
the former operations being from Soche airfield north of Ladakh. We
do not believe that the potential threat from Chinese medium bombers
"would be small" because of the small numbers which could be launched.
The psychological effect on the Indian population and Armed Forces
could be very sizable,
25X1 C8a
17. ( para. 27). We concur that raids by Chinese
piston bombers would likely result in heavy casualties, Contrary to
_7-
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25X1 C8a
the _ estimate, we believe that until Indian early warning
capabilities are substantially improved., Chinese jet light bombers
could penetrate Indian defenses in limited numbers without suffering
unacceptable losses.
25X1 C8a
18. Para, 30). We would suggest the following sub-
stitute wording for this paragraph: "In view of the limitations of
and other calls upon the transport force, extensive airborne operations
are unlikely, The air situation., however, would not necessarily 1e
unfavorable to the Chinese in all areas where they might contemplate
limited airborne operations."
25X1 C8a
IN M2 para. 31b), We do not believe that China's ability
to wage an air campaign against India would be seriously handicapped
by the need to maintain her present air posture and deployment. We
believe that a principal Chinese objective is to maintain current air
moratorium as long as possible. We agree that China is unlikely to
undertake air attacks deep into India except in retaliation, In
addition., the Chinese might initiate tactical air operations if they
suffered major military reverses.
25X1 C8a
20, para. 31c). We agree that the Chinese could mount
only light, sporadic raids against India with piston bombers. However,
-8?
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it is likely that Chinese *EAGLEs and, possibly, 1}ADGERs a Ld
he effective against Indian targets in sustained operations in-
volving limited numbers of aircraft until such times as the Indian
air defense system is substantially improved. Moreover, we would
hesitate to ignore or minimize the psychological significance of
even token Chinese raids on Indian cities and mil'C:ary targets.
25X1 C8a
21. (Ms ara, 31d). We believe the Chi.uese Air Force
could provide air defense for a few locaLtties in the Tibetan area.
Although the five airfields in the Sin Viang-Tibetan area most likely
to be used in operations against India would be vulnerable to air
attack, we do not believe that this alone would deter the Chinese
from mounting operations from them,
25X1 C8a
22, (_para.331e). We believe that the Chinese are
capable of undertaking limited airborne operations, although this
appears unlikely in present circumstances, There is some evidence
that limited supply drops have already taken place.
25X1 C8a
NOTE: We find a number of discrepancies between ~~AA~~dd T thinking on
5X1U8a
the technical data presented in the annexes to the = text. There
has not been time to work out a coordinated US position on these
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25X1 C8a
specifics, but this will be done before the meetings with the ^
Some examplig`Q C ae discrepancies are:.
The - identify 6,600 pounds as the bomb weight for
a BEAGLE mission with combat radius of 600 nautical miles" The US
concedes that the design bomb load for the DEAGLE is probably up to
6,600 pounds but believes that BEAGLE bomb bay dimensions indicate a
maximum capacity of eight 550-pound general purpose bombs totaling
4,400 pounds, With a 4,400 pound bomb load j, the US believes 2a
combat radius would be 590 nautical miles. Furthermore, the _
believe that BEAGLES operating from Lhasa would be restricted to a
bomb load of only 2,000 pounds. The US, in estimating BEAGLE opera-
tions from Nagchhu Dzong in Tibet rather than Lhasa, makes no re-
striction on BEAGLE bomb load as long as s,.zrface temperature is 00
centigrade or less (see page 7, attachment 4, to AFIC study dated
11 December).
25X1 C8a
b. The_ do not give the Fresco (MG-17 A, Et and C)
a ground attack capability in operations against India in the current
dispute, The US estimates that FRESCO aircraft could lee employed
either with one 1,000 pound bomb or two 550 pound bombs..
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25X1 C8a
a. T'11estimate that the FAGOT ( 210.15) in a
ground attack role, carrying two 550 pound bombs, would have an
internal fuel combat radius of 235 nautical miles. The US esti-
mates that the FAGOT in this configuration would have a combat
radius of only 100 nautical mixes. IfI however., the FAGOT was
carrying only one 550 pound bomb instead of two., th,' US .b lieves
that its combat radius could be 240 nautical miles*
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