THE THIRD KOREA OUR LAST ROUND BEFORE WORLD WAR III

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01731R000700040003-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2003
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: May 20, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

TB, THIRD KOREA
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OUR terROUND BEFORE WORLD WAR III
Address given before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
if z
by
Dr, E.Van Der Vlugt
May 20 1954.
Gentlemen:
I would first like to express my thanks for the honour of being
permitted to address you and talk to you briefly about the extremely grave
situation in Asia. Of course, I know you Senators and Congressmen are very
much aware of the problem and indeed know some aspects of it better than I do.
But I feel that there are some points which must be emphasized so I hope you
will forgive me if I go over ground with -which you are already familiar.
AVOIDING WORLD WAR III
What is our problem - the problem in all our minds? Is it not - how can
we save the world? How can we avoid World War III without military involvement?
K0R1A I, II AND
Already we have been drawn into military struggles which have paved the
way for this dreaded third - and perhaps last war. We have had Korea I - the
flames of that have seared and scorched us. They are hidden under the ashes
ready to leap up at any time. The flames are by no means dead there.
Now in Indo-China we have Korea II, Here, I am afraid, there is a tendency
to put all the blame for failure on France, Superficially France is demoralised.
Bu li we must not forget that France has been fighting this Second Korea nearly
alOne for seven years. And this was a France weakened by two world wars which
,delDived her of the best of her manpower and much of her energy. Gentlemen -
put.frourselves in their position. Can you imagine the United States fighting
in Koreafor seven years? What would you say to the electors if year after
year you had to go out to them and ask them for their sons and their money?
What, answer would you have?
The best solution that could be found for Korea I was a stalemate. We
shall be lucky if we can reach even such an unsatisfactory conclusion in Indo-
Chili.
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And then we shall have the next - and greatest? problem on our
hands. Row are we to prevent Korea III? One third of Asia is already
lost to Communism. We must not lose the rest of Asia. There is still
time. But gentlemen - the hands of the clock are at ten minutes to twelve.
We must act at once - but we must act with a clear and certain knowledge of
what we face in our minds. We must know the right questions as well as the
answers. And you, gentlemen, as the legislators of the greatest country in
the world must know those questions and answers when you are in Congress,
when you are in Committees, and above all, when you go out to face the voters
in this year's elections.
)k MILITARY MEANS IMPOSSIBLE
First, we must realize that a military solution to our problem is
- and China
almost impossible, Indo-Chinaiand the U.S.S.R. can engulf any army as
Russia once engulfed the might of Napoleon. Bombing the cities of
China would have almost no military value and would. psychologically turn all
of Asia against us.
IDEOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC MEANS
No - the methods we use must be ideological and economic ones. Suppose,
for instance that France were to put 500,000 men into Indo-China - and the
U.S. contributed 500,000 man. They would travel the 10,000 miles from
France and the 10,000 miles from the United States - for what purpose?
To be swallowed up in the insatiable maw of the Communist world. And the
rest of Asia would turn against us.
We must understand the problems of Asia, from Pakistan to Indonesia, and \
then apply the right solutions to the whole area with all our energy*
ASIAN COMMUNISM
But first we must understand the facts of Asian Communism. To begin
with - its extent and power.
If you look at the map you will see the extent of Russian power in
Central Asia. Over the past ten years Russia has developed in the Central
Asian Soviets a great industrial network of underground factories. It has
been estimated that the value of this Central Asian production is 80
billion dollars a year - and we do not know how much more is being produced
In Northern Asia and Siberia. This great massof industry is concentrated
dire cAs protold? FordReleasen1003305ANriCbtr-REMEISRO till R01110.0(014;011013-2t self almost
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invulnerable! Modern bombers could reaoh this area but their targets are
invisible - and unmapped. Bombers would have to fly in daylight - circle
for a long time in the faint hope of finding their objective, and would almost
inevitably be shot down.
Communications in Central and North Asia have been notoriously bad in the
past. But it is known that the Russians are building road systems - which
would not be so greatly harmed by bombing as rail-roads - linking all this
area and joining up with China.
*WEAKNESS TO BOMBING
?
Compare this vide-spread network of power to that of the United States.
. ,
You will remember the statement of President Eisenhower - that 40% of American
industry could be crippled overnight. We could, of course, inflict immense
damage on Russia and China. But for us it might be too late. It must not
happen.
CHINESE COMMUNISM
NOW let us look at the other Communist giant - at China. One thing is
important i we must understand that there are differences between Russian and
Chinese Communism. The strength of Chinese Communism is nationalism. The
Chinese look to their past to justify their aims for the future. They were
once the dominant power in Asia. They either ruled directly - or took tribute
from - Korea, Formosa, Indo-China, Malaya - even Indonesia, in many cases
until very recently. Indo-China had a special dependent status until 1884 and
Korea vas Chinese until 1900. The Chinese call their land "The Kingdom of
the Middle Earth n and the Communist Chinese atm to restore it to its former
position.' They have the sans strong emotional feelings about these lost
territories as Franoefeels about Alsaco-Lorraine or as the U.S. would feel,
to make a Wild statement, if Canada were to annex Alaska.
The Chinese have already made a bid for Korea and are now doing the same
thing in Indo-China, the Second Korea. The past and the present of China
here join hands - the Communist ideology is reinforced by the traditions of
the past.
Communism adds to this nationalism, to this sense of empire,another
feeling. This feeling is of hatred, and the object of this emotion is the West
The people. of China - and of all South Asia - attribute all their misfortunes -
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all their backwardness - to the wicked machinations of the sstern imperia-
lists and capitalists, and it is very easy for Communism to equate its aims
with those of nationalism. Communism will tee them from the hated chains of
the past - Communism will enable them to attain equality with the other nations
of the world - Communism will feed them where they once starved. And because
it appeals to emotions that the people know and understand it is all too often
successful. And China is the apostle of this new religion of hate through
Asia - just as kussia is in uxope and the United States.
IUS3IA AND O1LINA
This nationalist Communism in China, however, while it is not a danger
to us, may be in the end a source of 122.1. At the present, Ruesi and China
present a united front. But China is not a satellite of leessie and aussia has
made mistakes there before. Lenin tried to introduce orthodox Earxism in 1923
and wanted to emicentrate on the city proletariat. Mao ignored this policy
and went to the villages where he won his power. In 1946, when the
Communist armies were successful in China - with almost no help from kussia,
Russia proposed they enter the Comintern. The Chinese Minister of the Interior
flatly refused. He said - wee are Chinese - we are going to lead the destiny
of Asia". eo long as kneels helps China in its aim of industrialisation the
two will remain friendly. But the Chinese are suspicious of any foreign
pressure if Russia fails in its commitments or treats Chine as anything but
as equal there will be trouble.
%SUVA
But - at the present ,iussia and China are united. And this is the big
mistake of the Geneva conference - we have picked completely the wrong time
and wrong methods to try to negotiate. The western eorld is not showing a
united front - and we are trying to negotiate under the rules of Western
diplomacy, when all that the 2fast respects is the armed fiat v and we dare no
use that fist. That is the reason why the fall of Aeacbienphu is such a slap
in the face to the est - not because of any great strategic value but because
it lovars our prestige in the eyes of the Asians.
PIA() 1;]Wi OF ASIA
Nom I would bristly like to consider the problems of non tit Asia.
As I 89e it, there are four main problems. They are:
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(1 ) Infiltration of Communism
(2) Fanatic Nationalism
(3) Weakness because of the lack of capable administrators
(4) Economic
First, infiltration of Communism. Very often this comas from the resident
Chinese, who are the bankers, traders and shop-keepers of Asia. They are
seldom absorbed into the country - above everything else they remain Chinese.
Many of them have ideologically accepted Communism and this wealthy influential
group from a communist Fifth Column - ready to step in at the first opportunity.
Second, fanatic nationalism. In the recently independent countries of
Asia, the nest" and "Capitalism', are synomyms for "Colonialism" - the symbol of
everything they hate and fear. In their fight against colonialism many of the
leaders realise that idealistic socialism and Marxist Communism are by no means
the same thing they still cannot see the disastrous consequences of Communism.
To them Russia and China are benevolent np.1.1Brsiribei78". They believe that
Communism has raised Russia and China from poverty and weakness to prosperity.
To them, the Communist preach hope.
Thirdly, in many of these countries there is an almost complete lack of
capable administrators. This problem will perhaps be remidied in time but there
is the economic problem. This is so immense and baffling that it almost defies
description - yet it is so basic that it must be comprehended. The West has
already had a glimmering of this problem and in a tentative way has tried to
do something about it; we have had President Truman's Point Four, U.S. and
U.N. Technical Assistance and the Commonwealth Colombo Kan. Yet these plans
seem to have accomplished very little in the material sense and they have not
only not increased the pre-Western sentiment but even provoked irritation
against the West. Perhaps this is a natural human reaction since the newly
Independent peoples have usually found to their dismay that political independence
and the adoption of SOM forms of Western democracy has not also brought an
end to their economic backwardness.
The West has also, I think, made two assumptions that are quite wrong.
The first is, that if you teach a backward people businessand industrial
techniques they will immediately go out and do likewise. The incompetence, the
laziness and the corruption of many of these peoples have been ignored or only
discovered after immense frustration and loss.
There has also been the tendency to consider c 464668iyortable and
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transplantable like a gramonphone that will give music wherever you take it.
But capital to be productive demands certain social and political conditions
and also certain habits of mind in the population. It is true that the West
achieved an enormous advance over the rest of the world in the formation of
reproductive capital because of a unique set of circumstances at a given moment
in our history. But there were also three very important reasons: the puriteni-
cal desire to save; the strong desire to increase profit; and the mobility and
adaptability of our craftmanship. None of these conditions are to be found in
South Asia at the present time.
There is the possible alternative of building up capital internalV. Here
we run up against another set of difficulties. Saving is the basic) of capital*
But 70 to 80 of the people of South Asia live by agriculture, mostly on the
brink of starvation and there is absolutely no surplus for them to save. The
individual effort of this group counts for almost nothing. In the second place
the Asian laborer lacks the instinct for gain of his Western counterpart. He
is content to live from hand to mouth and if in one day he makes enough money
to buy food for two days be simply does not work on the second day. Why
should he? He has enough to eat and he is supremely unconcerned if a factory
or plantation is completely disrupted by the absenteeism of himself and his
cousins and uncles end aunts.
However, it must be assumed that there is no capital in these areas*
There is a great deal of capital - particularly in India and Indonesia - in
the hands of an extremely small group. But instead of being used to make more
capital as it *would in the West through reinvestment it is locked up in precious
stones, it gold, in land and real estate, or in export and import business*
It is seldom, if over, risked in big enterprises or industry.
INDONESIA
All of these problems are to be found in varying degrees in the countries
of South Asia. But internal communism, fanatic nationalism, economic weakness
and administrative chaos are all found in one country of vital importance to
the West -.. that is Indonesia. Indonesia is the third potential Third Kerea.
It is one of the richest countries in the world. It produaes rubber, tin,
oil, bauxite, rice, spices and many of its resources have har4y been tapped.
Materially it would be a tremendous prize for the Oommuniat, world. In addition
it is of immense strategic importance. The islands stretch in an immense: half-
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circle from galaya in the West alnost to the Philippines in the East and
Australia in the South East. If as has happened in the last war, they are in
the hands of enemies of the West, they constitute a terrific threat to
Australia and New Zealand and they can effectively cut off Southeast Asia with
the inevitable loss of Singapore and Malaya. With all of South East Asia under
Communist control, Asian Communism would be able to concentrate of India,
Pakistan, the Middle mast - and as I showed you earlier on the map - these areas
are already gravely threatened from Soviet Central Asia. From the point of view
of economic strategy the loss would also be a heavy one. Since the oil-wells of
Sumatra and Borneo and New Guinea are the only ones in the whole Pacific area
that lie close to the possible base of operations. It mould also mean the loss
of the two most valuable harbours in this area.
Gentlemen: you may think these facts have sOMB hypothetical interest. On
the contrary, it is I believe, of the utmost importance that you should keep
Indonesia in the foreground on your consciousness all the time. Indonesia is
ready to fall like a ripe plum into the hands of the Communists unless we fore-
stall them. It will be our Third and most disastrous Korea if we are not on guard.
SOLUTION
What then, must be done to prevent Indonesia and all the other countries
of South Asia from becoming Communist? The biggest problem is economic. But, you
will pay, all our previous experiments have borne little fruit. What is the use
of AMerica pouring good money after bad, or making investments only to have them
nationalized, of seeing money wasted through corruption and inefficiency?
We forget that these plans have all too often ignored the psychology of Asia and
have tried to implant an alien economic ideal in unfruitful soil. It must be
realised that Asia is undergoing two revolutions at the moment - in China and in
-India. The Chinese is a revolution of force - the Indian one of persuasion.
Both these countries have an immense influence with Asians and they are watching
eagerly to see which revolution will succeed. It must be the Indian one.
i'ven if we do not agree with much of the Indian revolution it is the only
alternative in Asia and it must therefore be supported to the hilt. An
expenditure of 1% of our arms budget a year could ensure the success of the
Indian experiMent. It seems a small amount to pay to prevent Korea Three and
perhaps WorldWar Three.
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India is only part of the economic solution, however.
There must be planning for the whole area - and it must be ElsaLL.d.1.22.121_1221.
planning.
We must recognise that we cannot transplant Western Capitalism in
a wholesale fashion - that free enterprise will only droop and die. We must
work with the means that fit Asia - in this case through strong government
and having worked out definite plans we must be prepared to see that they are
carried out. And we must not go into such an enterprise in the spirit of "Do.-
goodism7" - or with the hope of economic gain. We must do it with the clear
vision that this is a necessary expenditure - a defense expenditure if you like
and carry out the planning with the efficiency of a military manoeuver.
IDEOLOGICAL MEANS
At the same time we must bring about an ideological revolution. We must
beat Moscow and Peking at their own gams. As opposed to the incentive of hate
me must instill the incentive of profit. We must use nationalism for the
iright ends instead of the wrong ones. And above all we must help the people of
Asia to do these things themselves - let them know they are bringing about their
own redemption. As your great President Lincoln said: "You can't help men
permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves".
We must help Asia to do things for itself.
ASIA AFLAME AND INFORMATION SERVICE
In this area I think I can be of some use to you. I have written a book
which your State Department and Information Service feel can be of value in
enlightening the world to the real situation in Asia. They .feel it should be
published in Asian languages. But it should be adapted to the psycholo$7 of
each different nation. (Your Ambassador to Thailand, Mr. Donovan, has already
One
accomplished the publication of 500,000 pamphlets of a cpndensed version of
_-_--"-"
"Asia Aflame" specially adapted to that country). The book should also be
available cheaply - as you know, that is one of the greatest weapons of Soviet
propaganda, and will therefore need subsidies since it will have to be published
in editions below cost.
I am also a part of a group in Europe which is a centre for information
on South East Asia. We have many experts - particularly on Indonesia, which as
I have pointed out is a centre of great danger. I have here copies of a proposal
for a confidential service of Indonesian information which I will
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distribute. However, you will understand that this service will need
money to start with.
In this talk I have very roughly sketched some of the problems of sia.
I have prepared a second volume of "Asia Aflame" with an analysis of
the political, psychological, religious and economic factors. Should you
wish to see this very carefully planned and charted analysis I can make
up the scheme so that you will have the facts at your finger-tips when you
are before Congress and the voters. I think they might help you to draw
up a plan which will be the saving, not only of Asia, but of the world.
Washington, May 20, 1954/
DR. E. VAN PER VIUGT.
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