BACKGROUND - AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000300170004-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 24, 1998
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: December 8, 1954
• Content Type: BRIEF

NSC BRIEFING 8 December 1954
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BACKGROUND - AFGHANISTAN
National Estimate on Afghanistan
(published 19 Oct), we concluded:
A. That strategically important buffer
state is vulnerable to Soviet pressures,
because of its exposed position, its
military weakness and its growing
economic ties with the USSR.
B. Soviet attentions to Afghanistan--
particularly in form economic, technical
assistance--increased markedly in last
year (total $11 million). Will probably
continue grow.
C. However, USSR unlikely gain control of
Afghanistan within next years
bee~ersc
1. Soviet technicians we lae useful
for subversion )bixt Afghanistan has
almost no pro-Communist elements
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such action would offer few advantages
and would bring a strong anti-Soviet
reaction, particularly in Arab-Asian bloc.
D. bespite some dis
cuss-ion of possible Afghan-Pakistan
confederation, both internal complications
and Soviet and Indian opposition make
such a merger extremely unlikely.
II. Events since October have affected this
National Estimate only slightly.
A. As to Soviet economic activities, these
are continuing, but reason to believe that
reports of accelerated penetration
exaggerated.
1. Report that USSR supplying 90% Afghan
oil, for example, discounted by
continued Western shipments 2-3 million
gallons (annual consumption in ' 51
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was some mi.. ion) .
-2- 0, Pomp*
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ovie g antrade agreements,
which show fourfold expansion on
paper, may well not be fulfilled.
B. Prospects for better Afghan-Pakistan
relations have improved, although
merger remains improbable.
1. Afghan Foreign Minister has agreed
to confer on outstanding issues
with Pakistan, at time and place not
yet specified.
2. Although Afghan prime minister
recently restated his government's
support of thorny Pushtoonistan
cxna o6jecrJ . rro~~ly +o merger of wesr Ask `Pq
cause, his actions JO considered a r
A
pre-conference maneuvers and
prospects for Afghan-Pak collabora-
tion
.iwtw-r .
(4t&e r f eluc E`o.cpec
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