INDOCHINA PROSPECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000200370004-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 1998
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: July 22, 1954
• Content Type: BRIEF

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NSC BRIEFING
INDOCHINA PROSPECTS
22 July 1954
1. With armistice, French may try maintain
"presence" in south, to 'detriment of
Vietnamese regime, able rally support
nationwide.
A. French hope establish "new" govern-
ment in south, dominated by
Cochinchinese.
1. Baudet recently advocated
such plan.
2. Some French in Indochina
promoting "Cochinchia
Republic," backed by powerful
commercial interests in south.
3. Salan reported plotting with
Cochinchese ex-premier Tam and
his son, Chief of Staff Hinh,
to dump Bao Dai, set up Hinh.
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4. Tam, Hinh, other French
favorites such as Huu and
General Xuan, all French citizens.
B. French cool toward Diem, fear
his outcries over loss Tonkin may
unsetfle truce.
1. Vietnamese at Geneva formally
proteste&%truce terms.
2.
arresting Diem if necessary.
3. Diem already staged antipartition
demonstrations Hanoi, Saigon.
4. Vietnamese warn Frond' repression
"genuine nationaalis 's" likely
actio;.against disorders,
y says would take strong
force nationalist-Communist
coalition against France.
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II. At' be st, Vietnam government hard put
challenge Viet Minh in 1956 elections.
A. Diem regime, long on zeal, short on
administrative ability.
B. Problem corruption aggravated by
Bao Dai's continued profits from
corrupt police.
C. Arguments against Viet Minh (notably
issue of Chinese Communist domination)
more than offset by fear continued French
domination remainder of Vietnam.
U. S. Embassy Saigon, reported yesterday
Prime Minister Diem disillusioned results
Geneva -- considering resignation.
Vietnam Foreign Minister Tran Van Do
submitted resignation yesterday.
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