INDOCHINA POLITICAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000200340004-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 1998
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: June 24, 1954
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 1999/ OR01443R000200340004-0
NSC,BRIEFING 24 June 1954
INDOCHINA POLITICAL
I. Re Bao Dai, it becoming less likely
25XF1X6 he will return Vietnam,
A. Good report says most French
and Vietnamese plans call for
his dismissal.
B. But we feel Bao Dai will not
be easily fired. He may well
try to stay in France and pull
strings from there.
II. Able Governor Tri of Tonkin trying
to find government to which address
his resignation.
A. He fears immoral French
abandonment loyal population
of southern delta.
25X1-X6 ^
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B. fears
sudden plea from Tri or
Vietnam government to US
for Dunkirk-like sea lift
of sizable part Tonkin
population.
III. One of key French officials Indochina
emphasizes disintegration in Central
and South Vietnam.
A. He says Vietnam army not
now a defense but a danger.
B. Also says Viet Minh sending
battle-hardened Tonkinese
cadres to South Vietnam to
stiffen its forces there.
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III. Source says French believe 500 potential
Viet Minh truck drivers sent from delta
to Thai Nguyen area will replace bor-
drivers.
rowed Chinese
25X1X7 A.
25X1X700240001
_ Preparation for possible
inspections by neutral nations
following agreements Geneva.
IV. Cogny believes battle corps delta
25X1X7
perimeter ready move "at any time."
A. Says if he were Viet Minh
commander, he would have
attacked delta two weeks ago.
1. Cogny thinks political
considerations might
explain delay.
large
quantities Chinese aid crossed
border past several weeks.
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A. Materiel largely ammo and heavy
weapons; 36 to 50 105mm
howitzers 70 36-MM RWIAO'SS RIF40S
RNn 6 HumeARRLUFb RoekEr kA&*e#k-RS
B. French opinion: materiel
destined for Thai Nguyen area,
where enemy's nine battalions
in training may eventually
constitute new division,
possibly artillery.
VI. Regardless plans major assault, early
intensification delta activity fore-
cast.
"Indications" that Division 320
plus some irregulars ordered
prepare for action on 1 July
in southern delta area. One
regiment Division 304 also
may be involved. TN U5, FoR F,R s T
TIME, A v#tr WRoH 7aZ&AJ ,BCEN Pwc/
HAY BE CROSS/NC rAJro THE DE47-49
PRORER.
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1. French undecided whether
this would be part of
attack on entire delta
or only limited campaign.
B. Strong additional attacks
Hanoi-Haiphong LOC by several
enemy battalions expected.
1. Units may first turn
against Ke Sat-Hung Yen
route, isolate strategic
Hung Yen.
C. Report of 37mm AA defenses near
Haiduong, just east of Ke Sat,
suggests enemy plans for
increased action that area,
possibly in conjunction with
interdiction Hung Yen route.
1. Bridge across Thai Binh
River there most vulnerable
link Hanoi-Haiphong LOC.
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VII. New plan: retain French units southern
delta.
A. French apparently wish avoid
reorganization in face enemy
threat, also doubt Vietnamese
ability hold area.
B. Extent insecurity southern
delta indicated by closing
THE (.r R&CAi spinning and weaving mill$
in Nam Dinh; this one of
largest manufacturing enter-
prises in Indochina.
i VIII. Meanwhile, security five once-safe
provinces South Vietnam said by
Vietnamese officer to have deteriorated
markedly last half year.
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A. He blames poor pay, inadequate
arms local militia and corrup-
tion, incompetence local
governments; says Vietnamese
army "concerned much more with
tailoring of uniform and
unearned decorations than with
primary purpose of combating
Communist enemy."
B. His opinion--unless remedied,
"all would be lost" these
provinces within two or three
months.
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