LANIEL GOVERNMENT'S PROSPECTS THIS WEEK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000200330014-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 8, 1998
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: June 7, 1954
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2000/08/30 : CIA-RDP80RO1443R000200330014-0
Western Division
7 June 1954
LANIEL GOVERNMENT'S PROSPECTS THIS WEEK
I. This week's schedule in National Assembly calls for:
A. Hostile interpellations d n Indochina due a Tuesday
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8 June
from both Soc a s s an u s s.
5
B. These opposition speeches will probably take up all
of 9 June (evening
session planned. for 9 June if necessary)
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C. Government defense may not be completed by June
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D. a Laniel demand vote of confidence
10 June, Ott !! TOTE 9 /YOT PL9i,V ,~{,~'p4 L
AF01 rVD (/oTE
E. Required 24-hour delay would then postpone decision until
1 -June at the earliest PRo~A~~A'oTG~itIT/t-~tIEXTII/S~ 0
II. Current (i.e. pre-debate) outlook seems most crucial in
life of Fourth Republic.
A. Laniel facing stiffer opposition in Assembly than
hitherto
1. Most deputies increasingly impatient over lack of
progress at Geneva
2. Anti-EDC forces among center and right parties
may try to use Indochina issue to overthrow
government because of two recent pro-EDC de-
velopments:
a. Socialist and Popular Republican congresses of
29-30 May boosted EDC chances
b. Official announcement expected soon on Saar
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B. Nevertheless, Laniel may be able to hold on
1. He will lean heavily on positive steps he has taken
to shore up defenses
a. Protection of expeditionary forces
2. Coalition parties unwilling to accept onus for
crisis while Geneva still offers any hope of
Indochina settlement
3. Opposition still unable to agree on a successor
to Laniel
a. Constitutionally, 314 opposition votes required
to overthrow the government,
b. Raadical Socialists reported to have readjusted
their votes at last minute on 13 May when first
count showed Laniel needed several more votes
Laniel exploiting this situation to his advantage
i. Before 13 May vote Lanied reportedly stated that:
1. He would refuse to resign if the opposi-
tion gets less than constitutional majority.
2. He would, push for new elections if oppo-
sition did, gain a constitutional majority.
C. New factor, reported by Ambassador Dillon on 4 June, is
increasing parliamentary view that new elections would, be
desirable, despite Geneva conference.
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1. It is argued that:
a. Forming a new government in present Assembly
might take as long as forming one following
new elections,
1. Elections would occur 20-30 days after
dissolutuon.
2. Assembly convenes three weeks after
elections.
b. Success of pro-EDC candidates in recent
by-elections indicates that new .Assembly
would be more pro-EDC
2. Against new elections it is argued that:
a, Recent by-election victories were anti-
Communist rather than pro-EDD;
b. There is good possibility that Communists
would. capatilize on general dissension among
other parties to increase their parliamentary
representatbn.
Approved For Release 2000/08/30 : CIA-RDP80R01443R000200330014-0