THE SITUATION AT DIEN BIEN PHU

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000200220003-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 7, 1998
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: April 6, 1954
• Content Type: BRIEF

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RDP80R0l 443R000200220003-4
6 April 1954
THE SITUATION AT DIEN BIEN PHU
I. Garrison Dien Bien Phu still established
at major strongpoints and French
cautiously optimistic although admit
situation precarious.
A. French believe they survived "second
phase" of battle intact. Expect
"third phase" attack within week.
II. Current picture at Dien Bien Phu
A. French lost three out of five
subpositions in Dominique and one
out of four in Eliane over past
eight days.
B. Since first attacks 13 March lost
about four battalions. Three
replaced.
1. Several hundred wounded pose
threat to defenders' morale.
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C. Two more paratroop battalions in
delta available but Navarre not
planning to commit them
1 . v .rn a - l - = two
parachute battalions from North
Africa at Paris rest: EX-
pected arrival about ten days.
D. Enemy AA fire makes drops rein
h..
forcements and supplies difficult.
1. Planes forced high altitudes
and use delayed-action para-
chutes. ~I-
E . Weather hampers resupply. Many
resupply and combat missions forced
turn back.
III. Current Viet Minh picture.
A. Enemy casualties may be 20,000.
Perhaps half this figure reasonable
minimum.
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B. Viet Minh received 3,000 replace-
ments.
1. These been commited as De
Castries attributes weakening
enemy power to very youthful
IV.
25X1X7
raw troops plus combat fatigue.
5m.J6
C. Viet Minh ordered eAawe 20,000 more
reinforcements. About 5,000 of
these could be there in few days
but arrival time of remainder cannot
be accurately determined.
1. Many untried recruits.
D. French say Viet Minh supplies
sufficient to last into May.
1. believes 25X1X6
enemy now parceling out ammu-
25X1X7 nition.
said there every indication
enemy to continue all-out effort
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V. Loss of Dien Bien Phu could start
trend rapid military deterioration.
A. Loss won't be military catastrophe.
Viet Minh suffered huge casualties.
B. But Vietnamese troops and populace
will abandon hope for victory.
1. Many Vietnamese troops probably
desert or refuse to fight.
2. People will greatly increase
support Viet Minh.
C. Navarre, who shown will to win,
will lose prestige. Probably
forced resign.
D. Viet Minh will find it easier
replace its losses.
VI. If French hold out, turning point road
to victory may have been reached.
A. Favorable effect on Vietnamese.
B. French can capitalize heavy losses
of enemy to mount offensives.
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